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The bookies are now offering odds on Trump winning in 2028/a third term – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,391
edited March 31 in General
The bookies are now offering odds on Trump winning in 2028/a third term – politicalbetting.com

Both Ladbrokes and William Hill are now offering on odds on Trump winning in 2028 or a third time via presidential election, I think this is a suitable move, as a trading bet at 16/1.

Read the full story here

«1345

Comments

  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,591
    First
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,359
    If they did the Vance at the top of the ticket but Trump then takes over thing, presumably this bet wouldn’t pay out.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,591

    If they did the Vance at the top of the ticket but Trump then takes over thing, presumably this bet wouldn’t pay out.

    Why would Vance do that?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,440

    If they did the Vance at the top of the ticket but Trump then takes over thing, presumably this bet wouldn’t pay out.

    Why would Vance do that?
    Yes, I could see Vance accidentally on purpose forgetting to relinquish the main job.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,440
    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    Weirdly solar has now crashed to zero: https://grid.iamkate.com/

    How strange is that?

    Serious point though - how does the solar power that's fed in to the grid overnight having been stored at generation site batteries get counted?
    There's a section for stored energy generation. We don't have a lot of battery storage though. Solar is still, despite what Robert might say, not viable in the UK. We just need to dump £20bn into the RR modular nuclear reactors and get them started up with a manufacturing pilot line and the first few reactors built and running by 2030. If we approve it and get RR started today we might make it but the government moves like molasses and our tech leadership is slipping away without that big order and backing for RR from the UK.

    As a side note I was speaking to an energy investor here in Florence today and he confirmed what I already suspected that RR and other UK companies struggle to get overseas money because they don't have the UK government vote of confidence. It's difficult to get foreign governments to buy something that its own one seems uninterested in and he was saying that's the resistance RR are running into when they make their sales pitch "if it's as good as you say then why is your own government not already placing an order for 10 of these and looking at an American solution instead?" is the question they can't answer.
    Are we actually looking at an American solution? Wtf?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,757

    If they did the Vance at the top of the ticket but Trump then takes over thing, presumably this bet wouldn’t pay out.

    Surely that doesn't work in that Trump isn't eligible to be VP, as he has already served two terms.

    Apart from a Constitutional ammendment the only way is not enforcing the Constitution.

  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,359

    If they did the Vance at the top of the ticket but Trump then takes over thing, presumably this bet wouldn’t pay out.

    Why would Vance do that?
    That is the approach that has been mooted. I’m not saying it’s likely.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,867
    Stop encouraging the old fool.

    His vanity is unlikely to give him a third term, but it is quite likely to be a useful tool for those around him who want to subvert the electoral process for their own ends.
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,930
    If Trump is both alive (not a given) and not obviously too far gone due to senility, he'll run again.

    The biggest threat to Trump not running again isn't AOC, or Bernie Sanders, or Gavin Newsom or any other Democrat.

    The biggest threat to stopping him is a man called Ronald McDonald.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,644
    Why would there need to be an election in 2028 to reelect Trump to an unconstitutional 3rd term? The Will of the People has already been expressed and surely it is profoundly undemocratic to ask them to confirm their vote.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,867

    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    Weirdly solar has now crashed to zero: https://grid.iamkate.com/

    How strange is that?

    Serious point though - how does the solar power that's fed in to the grid overnight having been stored at generation site batteries get counted?
    There's a section for stored energy generation. We don't have a lot of battery storage though. Solar is still, despite what Robert might say, not viable in the UK. We just need to dump £20bn into the RR modular nuclear reactors and get them started up with a manufacturing pilot line and the first few reactors built and running by 2030. If we approve it and get RR started today we might make it but the government moves like molasses and our tech leadership is slipping away without that big order and backing for RR from the UK.

    As a side note I was speaking to an energy investor here in Florence today and he confirmed what I already suspected that RR and other UK companies struggle to get overseas money because they don't have the UK government vote of confidence. It's difficult to get foreign governments to buy something that its own one seems uninterested in and he was saying that's the resistance RR are running into when they make their sales pitch "if it's as good as you say then why is your own government not already placing an order for 10 of these and looking at an American solution instead?" is the question they can't answer.
    Are we actually looking at an American solution? Wtf?
    We should absolutely look at an American solution as part of a thorough assessment

    The issue is that the treasury scoring method puts zero weight on the strategic value of domestic capabilities
    Which is frankly insane.

    How do they weight the potential economic value of kickstarting a domestic manufacturer ?
    Or is that also ignored ?
  • 16/1 is terrible value when the obvious route to a third term is to stand as VP candidate with a patsy who will immediately stand down. That wouldn't pay out under the terms of the market.
  • StereodogStereodog Posts: 797
    This might be controversial but I don't find Trump's desire to run for a third term particularly outrageous. The twenty second amendment is pretty new in constitutional terms and was arguably only introduced because of Republican anger at FDR. What would be outrageous is if Trump achieved this by just ignoring the constitution or pressuring the Supreme Court to set the amendment aside.
  • prh47bridgeprh47bridge Posts: 468
    Foxy said:

    If they did the Vance at the top of the ticket but Trump then takes over thing, presumably this bet wouldn’t pay out.

    Surely that doesn't work in that Trump isn't eligible to be VP, as he has already served two terms.

    Apart from a Constitutional ammendment the only way is not enforcing the Constitution.

    The 22nd Amendment does not prevent someone who has already served two terms from being VP. It stops them being elected, but does not prevent them becoming president again in other ways. Trump is indeed eligible to be VP. It would need a Constitutional amendment to stop him.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,867
    Lev Parnas.

    For 5 yrs, I’ve warned you—I hate to say I told you so. I said if Donald Trump ever got back in office, he’d do everything in his power not to leave. Now, it’s unfolding. My sources say it’s more serious than ever. They’re laying the groundwork. Steve Bannon & others are pushing it. Trump’s inner circle has had discussions—real plans—to make this happen. He’s dead serious. This isn’t a joke.
    https://x.com/levparnas/status/1906453119426285923

    But again, this is not so much about Trump, as it is about what his party has now become under him.

    I very much doubt the problem would go away if he karked it tomorrow.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,220

    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    Weirdly solar has now crashed to zero: https://grid.iamkate.com/

    How strange is that?

    Serious point though - how does the solar power that's fed in to the grid overnight having been stored at generation site batteries get counted?
    There's a section for stored energy generation. We don't have a lot of battery storage though. Solar is still, despite what Robert might say, not viable in the UK. We just need to dump £20bn into the RR modular nuclear reactors and get them started up with a manufacturing pilot line and the first few reactors built and running by 2030. If we approve it and get RR started today we might make it but the government moves like molasses and our tech leadership is slipping away without that big order and backing for RR from the UK.

    As a side note I was speaking to an energy investor here in Florence today and he confirmed what I already suspected that RR and other UK companies struggle to get overseas money because they don't have the UK government vote of confidence. It's difficult to get foreign governments to buy something that its own one seems uninterested in and he was saying that's the resistance RR are running into when they make their sales pitch "if it's as good as you say then why is your own government not already placing an order for 10 of these and looking at an American solution instead?" is the question they can't answer.
    Are we actually looking at an American solution? Wtf?
    We should absolutely look at an American solution as part of a thorough assessment

    The issue is that the treasury scoring method puts zero weight on the strategic value of domestic capabilities
    Better hope that American option doesn't have a kill switch...
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,939
    Will Obama be allowed to stand again or is a third term only allowed for Trump ?
  • vikvik Posts: 171
    I find it very hard to believe that Amy Coney Barrett & John Roberts will support a 3rd term, but Sotomayor (or one of the other liberals) could pass away & be replaced by Aileen Cannon for the 5th vote.

    A legal trick they could use is to say that there's no congressional legislation to regulate the 22nd Amendment. (The same argument they used to keep Trump on the ballot in the Colorado case.)

    The Congressman Dan Goldman tried to introduce a Bill to codify the 22nd Amendment in legislation, but obviously there's zero chance it'll pass.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,867
    Stereodog said:

    This might be controversial but I don't find Trump's desire to run for a third term particularly outrageous. The twenty second amendment is pretty new in constitutional terms and was arguably only introduced because of Republican anger at FDR. What would be outrageous is if Trump achieved this by just ignoring the constitution or pressuring the Supreme Court to set the amendment aside.

    Which is clearly the case here.

    What is outrageous is the obvious determination to hang on to power by whatever means necessary.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,405
    nico67 said:

    Will Obama be allowed to stand again or is a third term only allowed for Trump ?

    SCOTUS will rule that the 22nd Amendment only applies to consecutive terms, thus ruling Obama ineligible.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,220

    If Trump is both alive (not a given) and not obviously too far gone due to senility, he'll run again.

    The biggest threat to Trump not running again isn't AOC, or Bernie Sanders, or Gavin Newsom or any other Democrat.

    The biggest threat to stopping him is a man called Ronald McDonald.

    The biggest threat to Trump running is Mr. Market dumping his favourables in the low twenties.

    Trump won't spend his own money to get re-elected. The patsies won't stump up for more recession. Or worse.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,286
    Don’t know about you but I’m drinking Yunnanese tea in the apricot orchards by the fabled harem in the summer palace of Amir al-Mu’minin (The Commander of the Faithful), Khan of the Manghit Dynasty, Protector of the Holy Cities of Bukhara and Samarkand, Shadow of God on Earth, Sultan of the Faithful and Sword of Islam, Heir to the Throne of Timur, The Pillar of Justice and Light of the Age, Sayid Alid Khan - the Last Emir of Bukhara

    Another Monday morning, eh
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,939

    nico67 said:

    Will Obama be allowed to stand again or is a third term only allowed for Trump ?

    SCOTUS will rule that the 22nd Amendment only applies to consecutive terms, thus ruling Obama ineligible.
    You mean they’ll fix it to suit Trump . At the moment the public aren’t enthrallled by Presidents having three terms according to polls .
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,166
    Nigelb said:

    Stereodog said:

    This might be controversial but I don't find Trump's desire to run for a third term particularly outrageous. The twenty second amendment is pretty new in constitutional terms and was arguably only introduced because of Republican anger at FDR. What would be outrageous is if Trump achieved this by just ignoring the constitution or pressuring the Supreme Court to set the amendment aside.

    Which is clearly the case here.

    What is outrageous is the obvious determination to hang on to power by whatever means necessary.
    Trouble is that this lot are heading straight from the White House to the Big House if they ever leave office.

    And there's a feedback loop between the likelihood of punishment and the outrageousness of their efforts to avoid punishment.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,264
    If on top of taking over Greenland and Canada he appoints himself President for life are we sure we're better off under the umrella of the US rather than say China?
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 4,428

    If Trump is both alive (not a given) and not obviously too far gone due to senility, he'll run again.

    The biggest threat to Trump not running again isn't AOC, or Bernie Sanders, or Gavin Newsom or any other Democrat.

    The biggest threat to stopping him is a man called Ronald McDonald.

    ...or a grassy knoll?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,111
    Leon said:

    Don’t know about you but I’m drinking Yunnanese tea in the apricot orchards by the fabled harem in the summer palace of Amir al-Mu’minin (The Commander of the Faithful), Khan of the Manghit Dynasty, Protector of the Holy Cities of Bukhara and Samarkand, Shadow of God on Earth, Sultan of the Faithful and Sword of Islam, Heir to the Throne of Timur, The Pillar of Justice and Light of the Age, Sayid Alid Khan - the Last Emir of Bukhara

    Another Monday morning, eh

    I've been spending quality time with my son.

    I win. :)
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,644
    I've read various pieces and comments across the tinterweb suggesting that now is the time to rejoin the EU.

    Why? The EU project is about to substantially evolve again. Mutual defence is now going to be just as important as anything else, which means countries outside the EU such as UK and Norway being heavily involved.

    We will be part of the post-EU framework, without question.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,286
    Nigelb said:

    .

    Leon said:

    Don’t know about you but I’m drinking Yunnanese tea in the apricot orchards by the fabled harem in the summer palace of Amir al-Mu’minin (The Commander of the Faithful), Khan of the Manghit Dynasty, Protector of the Holy Cities of Bukhara and Samarkand, Shadow of God on Earth, Sultan of the Faithful and Sword of Islam, Heir to the Throne of Timur, The Pillar of Justice and Light of the Age, Sayid Alid Khan - the Last Emir of Bukhara

    Another Monday morning, eh

    Bit of a mouthful if asking for directions.
    His story is amazing

    He had 365 wives and concubines, used to boil erring servants alive in oil, threw British envoys into “the bug pit” (full of snakes and spiders), recited Persian poetry and loved Sufi mystics, had secret parties of hashish mulberry wine and rosewater, but was kicked out by the bolsheviks and ended his life in Kabul, drinking English gin in sullen and morose silence
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,867
    edited March 31
    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    Leon said:

    Don’t know about you but I’m drinking Yunnanese tea in the apricot orchards by the fabled harem in the summer palace of Amir al-Mu’minin (The Commander of the Faithful), Khan of the Manghit Dynasty, Protector of the Holy Cities of Bukhara and Samarkand, Shadow of God on Earth, Sultan of the Faithful and Sword of Islam, Heir to the Throne of Timur, The Pillar of Justice and Light of the Age, Sayid Alid Khan - the Last Emir of Bukhara

    Another Monday morning, eh

    Bit of a mouthful if asking for directions.
    His story is amazing

    He had 365 wives and concubines, used to boil erring servants alive in oil, threw British envoys into “the bug pit” (full of snakes and spiders), recited Persian poetry and loved Sufi mystics, had secret parties of hashish mulberry wine and rosewater, but was kicked out by the bolsheviks and ended his life in Kabul, drinking English gin in sullen and morose silence
    Do I detect a sense of shared experience there ?

    I have to admit a bit of envy as it's a part of the world I'm unlikely to get around to seeing.
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,559
    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    Leon said:

    Don’t know about you but I’m drinking Yunnanese tea in the apricot orchards by the fabled harem in the summer palace of Amir al-Mu’minin (The Commander of the Faithful), Khan of the Manghit Dynasty, Protector of the Holy Cities of Bukhara and Samarkand, Shadow of God on Earth, Sultan of the Faithful and Sword of Islam, Heir to the Throne of Timur, The Pillar of Justice and Light of the Age, Sayid Alid Khan - the Last Emir of Bukhara

    Another Monday morning, eh

    Bit of a mouthful if asking for directions.
    His story is amazing

    He had 365 wives and concubines, used to boil erring servants alive in oil, threw British envoys into “the bug pit” (full of snakes and spiders), recited Persian poetry and loved Sufi mystics, had secret parties of hashish mulberry wine and rosewater, but was kicked out by the bolsheviks and ended his life in Kabul, drinking English gin in sullen and morose silence
    The Bolshies are always spoiling someone's fun.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,939
    The US and Russia are negotiating on jointly exploiting rare earth metals in Russia .

    So much for all the so called Trump outrage at Russia .
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,867
    nico67 said:

    The US and Russia are negotiating on jointly exploiting rare earth metals in Russia .

    So much for all the so called Trump outrage at Russia .

    Trump also just said Zelensky would be "in big trouble" if he doesn't agree to the expropriative reparations terms Trump is demanding.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,826
    Nigelb said:

    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    Weirdly solar has now crashed to zero: https://grid.iamkate.com/

    How strange is that?

    Serious point though - how does the solar power that's fed in to the grid overnight having been stored at generation site batteries get counted?
    There's a section for stored energy generation. We don't have a lot of battery storage though. Solar is still, despite what Robert might say, not viable in the UK. We just need to dump £20bn into the RR modular nuclear reactors and get them started up with a manufacturing pilot line and the first few reactors built and running by 2030. If we approve it and get RR started today we might make it but the government moves like molasses and our tech leadership is slipping away without that big order and backing for RR from the UK.

    As a side note I was speaking to an energy investor here in Florence today and he confirmed what I already suspected that RR and other UK companies struggle to get overseas money because they don't have the UK government vote of confidence. It's difficult to get foreign governments to buy something that its own one seems uninterested in and he was saying that's the resistance RR are running into when they make their sales pitch "if it's as good as you say then why is your own government not already placing an order for 10 of these and looking at an American solution instead?" is the question they can't answer.
    Are we actually looking at an American solution? Wtf?
    We should absolutely look at an American solution as part of a thorough assessment

    The issue is that the treasury scoring method puts zero weight on the strategic value of domestic capabilities
    Which is frankly insane.

    How do they weight the potential economic value of kickstarting a domestic manufacturer ?
    Or is that also ignored ?
    The solution is to suggest offshoring the Treasury.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,867
    ICE Revoking Students’ Immigration Statuses Without Their or the University’s Knowledge
    “Never seen something like this,” say university officials about the secret targeting of Middle Eastern students.
    https://zeteo.com/p/ice-manually-revoking-university-students-residency-status-middle-east
  • IcarusIcarus Posts: 998
    "....drinking English gin in sullen and morose silence". Not a bad way to go!
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,124
    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    Leon said:

    Don’t know about you but I’m drinking Yunnanese tea in the apricot orchards by the fabled harem in the summer palace of Amir al-Mu’minin (The Commander of the Faithful), Khan of the Manghit Dynasty, Protector of the Holy Cities of Bukhara and Samarkand, Shadow of God on Earth, Sultan of the Faithful and Sword of Islam, Heir to the Throne of Timur, The Pillar of Justice and Light of the Age, Sayid Alid Khan - the Last Emir of Bukhara

    Another Monday morning, eh

    Bit of a mouthful if asking for directions.
    His story is amazing

    He had 365 wives and concubines, used to boil erring servants alive in oil, threw British envoys into “the bug pit” (full of snakes and spiders), recited Persian poetry and loved Sufi mystics, had secret parties of hashish mulberry wine and rosewater, but was kicked out by the bolsheviks and ended his life in Kabul, drinking English gin in sullen and morose silence
    Let that be a warning to you.
    Though the sullen and morose silence is a bit of a stretch.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,867
    The best view of yesterday's launch explosion.
    https://x.com/KSpaceAcademy/status/1906341521097400526
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,111
    In other news: Mrs J and a friend went to a concert in Belgium at the weekend. Due to rail strikes and other issues, it could have been a fairly disastrous trip. But thanks to the kindness of strangers, it was an absolute triumph.

    Just a little reminder that people are, on the whole, kind, and will often help strangers. Even foreigners.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,286
    Ah. Someone warned them I was coming. This was my arrival in Gidjuvan 2 minutes ago



    They are understandably elated
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,220

    I've read various pieces and comments across the tinterweb suggesting that now is the time to rejoin the EU.

    Why? The EU project is about to substantially evolve again. Mutual defence is now going to be just as important as anything else, which means countries outside the EU such as UK and Norway being heavily involved.

    We will be part of the post-EU framework, without question.

    All those countries like Luxembourg and Ireland, freeloading on our defence commitment to Europe.

    We should make them pay a fee to join our defence team.... MAGA-Mode/
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,047
    Leon said:

    Don’t know about you but I’m drinking Yunnanese tea in the apricot orchards by the fabled harem in the summer palace of Amir al-Mu’minin (The Commander of the Faithful), Khan of the Manghit Dynasty, Protector of the Holy Cities of Bukhara and Samarkand, Shadow of God on Earth, Sultan of the Faithful and Sword of Islam, Heir to the Throne of Timur, The Pillar of Justice and Light of the Age, Sayid Alid Khan - the Last Emir of Bukhara

    Another Monday morning, eh

    Is your visa still valid to Myanmar? If so you could nip in there and do some journalism as apparently the authorities don’t have the resources to issue visas to foreign journos

    You could get a good speccie article out of it about how you managed to provide interesting coverage of the earthquake to outsiders down to the luck of having been to yet another country that went tits up after you visited.

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,331
    Leon said:

    Don’t know about you but I’m drinking Yunnanese tea in the apricot orchards by the fabled harem in the summer palace of Amir al-Mu’minin (The Commander of the Faithful), Khan of the Manghit Dynasty, Protector of the Holy Cities of Bukhara and Samarkand, Shadow of God on Earth, Sultan of the Faithful and Sword of Islam, Heir to the Throne of Timur, The Pillar of Justice and Light of the Age, Sayid Alid Khan - the Last Emir of Bukhara

    Another Monday morning, eh

    I've always thought that royal Islamic titles are fantastic. "Padishah", "Commander of the Faithful", "The Shadow of God upon Earth."
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,331

    Roger said:

    If on top of taking over Greenland and Canada he appoints himself President for life are we sure we're better off under the umrella of the US rather than say China?

    Why “under the umbrella” of either?

    I know you think China is shiny, but all the things you dislike Trump for *trying* to do, are settled state policy in China. Plus lots worse.
    Yes, China would be a very strange choice to cosy up to.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,900

    I've read various pieces and comments across the tinterweb suggesting that now is the time to rejoin the EU.

    Why? The EU project is about to substantially evolve again. Mutual defence is now going to be just as important as anything else, which means countries outside the EU such as UK and Norway being heavily involved.

    We will be part of the post-EU framework, without question.

    Good morning

    Absolutely - An opportunity has arisen to create a much wider defence and trading organisation to include Canada, UK, Norway and others to the benefit of all
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,286
    I fucking love Uzbekistan. Apart from the food
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,286
    boulay said:

    Leon said:

    Don’t know about you but I’m drinking Yunnanese tea in the apricot orchards by the fabled harem in the summer palace of Amir al-Mu’minin (The Commander of the Faithful), Khan of the Manghit Dynasty, Protector of the Holy Cities of Bukhara and Samarkand, Shadow of God on Earth, Sultan of the Faithful and Sword of Islam, Heir to the Throne of Timur, The Pillar of Justice and Light of the Age, Sayid Alid Khan - the Last Emir of Bukhara

    Another Monday morning, eh

    Is your visa still valid to Myanmar? If so you could nip in there and do some journalism as apparently the authorities don’t have the resources to issue visas to foreign journos

    You could get a good speccie article out of it about how you managed to provide interesting coverage of the earthquake to outsiders down to the luck of having been to yet another country that went tits up after you visited.

    A hint of pique in your commands?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,375
    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: Tsunoda's reportedly targeting a podium in Japan. It would be astonishing if that actually occurred. My guess is that Lawson will outqualify him, but we shall see.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,591
    Nigelb said:

    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    Weirdly solar has now crashed to zero: https://grid.iamkate.com/

    How strange is that?

    Serious point though - how does the solar power that's fed in to the grid overnight having been stored at generation site batteries get counted?
    There's a section for stored energy generation. We don't have a lot of battery storage though. Solar is still, despite what Robert might say, not viable in the UK. We just need to dump £20bn into the RR modular nuclear reactors and get them started up with a manufacturing pilot line and the first few reactors built and running by 2030. If we approve it and get RR started today we might make it but the government moves like molasses and our tech leadership is slipping away without that big order and backing for RR from the UK.

    As a side note I was speaking to an energy investor here in Florence today and he confirmed what I already suspected that RR and other UK companies struggle to get overseas money because they don't have the UK government vote of confidence. It's difficult to get foreign governments to buy something that its own one seems uninterested in and he was saying that's the resistance RR are running into when they make their sales pitch "if it's as good as you say then why is your own government not already placing an order for 10 of these and looking at an American solution instead?" is the question they can't answer.
    Are we actually looking at an American solution? Wtf?
    We should absolutely look at an American solution as part of a thorough assessment

    The issue is that the treasury scoring method puts zero weight on the strategic value of domestic capabilities
    Which is frankly insane.


    How do they weight the potential economic value of kickstarting a domestic manufacturer ?
    Or is that also ignored ?
    Believe they massively risk adjust it

    Basically it’s government by accountants
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,047
    Leon said:

    boulay said:

    Leon said:

    Don’t know about you but I’m drinking Yunnanese tea in the apricot orchards by the fabled harem in the summer palace of Amir al-Mu’minin (The Commander of the Faithful), Khan of the Manghit Dynasty, Protector of the Holy Cities of Bukhara and Samarkand, Shadow of God on Earth, Sultan of the Faithful and Sword of Islam, Heir to the Throne of Timur, The Pillar of Justice and Light of the Age, Sayid Alid Khan - the Last Emir of Bukhara

    Another Monday morning, eh

    Is your visa still valid to Myanmar? If so you could nip in there and do some journalism as apparently the authorities don’t have the resources to issue visas to foreign journos

    You could get a good speccie article out of it about how you managed to provide interesting coverage of the earthquake to outsiders down to the luck of having been to yet another country that went tits up after you visited.

    A hint of pique in your commands?
    Absolutely not - was a genuine query/suggestion - would be quite the adventure and story by virtue of you still having a rare journalist visa.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,591

    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    Weirdly solar has now crashed to zero: https://grid.iamkate.com/

    How strange is that?

    Serious point though - how does the solar power that's fed in to the grid overnight having been stored at generation site batteries get counted?
    There's a section for stored energy generation. We don't have a lot of battery storage though. Solar is still, despite what Robert might say, not viable in the UK. We just need to dump £20bn into the RR modular nuclear reactors and get them started up with a manufacturing pilot line and the first few reactors built and running by 2030. If we approve it and get RR started today we might make it but the government moves like molasses and our tech leadership is slipping away without that big order and backing for RR from the UK.

    As a side note I was speaking to an energy investor here in Florence today and he confirmed what I already suspected that RR and other UK companies struggle to get overseas money because they don't have the UK government vote of confidence. It's difficult to get foreign governments to buy something that its own one seems uninterested in and he was saying that's the resistance RR are running into when they make their sales pitch "if it's as good as you say then why is your own government not already placing an order for 10 of these and looking at an American solution instead?" is the question they can't answer.
    Are we actually looking at an American solution? Wtf?
    We should absolutely look at an American solution as part of a thorough assessment

    The issue is that the treasury scoring method puts zero weight on the strategic value of domestic capabilities

    Better hope that American option doesn't
    have a kill switch...
    You’d never actually choose the American option…

  • eekeek Posts: 29,520

    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: Tsunoda's reportedly targeting a podium in Japan. It would be astonishing if that actually occurred. My guess is that Lawson will outqualify him, but we shall see.

    The Lawson / Tsunoda battle will definitely the biggest story next weekend and will confirm an awful lot.

    If Lawson is better than Tsunoda than we will know once and for all that the Red Bull car is dire and built for Max (we won't know anything more until Max moves to another team). If Tsunoda beats Lawson then we know Lawson was moved to early.

  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,457
    edited March 31
    Trump is a walking advertisement for term limits.

    But I oppose them. They are unnecessary and deeply anti-democratic - there is already a mechanism called "elections" which limits a politician's term as head of state. And if the American people are idiotic enough to want Trump for another term, they should be allowed that option.

    It is comforting to think that it would be very difficult, if not impossible, for this particular incumbent to run again though.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,794

    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    Weirdly solar has now crashed to zero: https://grid.iamkate.com/

    How strange is that?

    Serious point though - how does the solar power that's fed in to the grid overnight having been stored at generation site batteries get counted?
    There's a section for stored energy generation. We don't have a lot of battery storage though. Solar is still, despite what Robert might say, not viable in the UK. We just need to dump £20bn into the RR modular nuclear reactors and get them started up with a manufacturing pilot line and the first few reactors built and running by 2030. If we approve it and get RR started today we might make it but the government moves like molasses and our tech leadership is slipping away without that big order and backing for RR from the UK.

    As a side note I was speaking to an energy investor here in Florence today and he confirmed what I already suspected that RR and other UK companies struggle to get overseas money because they don't have the UK government vote of confidence. It's difficult to get foreign governments to buy something that its own one seems uninterested in and he was saying that's the resistance RR are running into when they make their sales pitch "if it's as good as you say then why is your own government not already placing an order for 10 of these and looking at an American solution instead?" is the question they can't answer.
    Are we actually looking at an American solution? Wtf?
    Yes, and the assessment has been pushed out to 2028 iirc, it's a bit of a joke really for a country that has hugely rising energy demand with AI being our biggest growth industry and companies looking for cheap, stable power supply which neither wind nor solar can provide.
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,930
    nico67 said:

    Will Obama be allowed to stand again or is a third term only allowed for Trump ?

    Only for Trump obviously.

    But if Trump is running in 2028, he'll be the only name on the ballot paper.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,375
    eek said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: Tsunoda's reportedly targeting a podium in Japan. It would be astonishing if that actually occurred. My guess is that Lawson will outqualify him, but we shall see.

    The Lawson / Tsunoda battle will definitely the biggest story next weekend and will confirm an awful lot.

    If Lawson is better than Tsunoda than we will know once and for all that the Red Bull car is dire and built for Max (we won't know anything more until Max moves to another team). If Tsunoda beats Lawson then we know Lawson was moved to early.

    Both those things could be true.

    Tsunoda should've scored good points at both races so far but was shafted by the Racing Bulls strategy calls. If he finishes 11th and reaches Q2, that would be a significant improvement, but still strongly indicative of the Red Bull being inferior (perhaps not in pace terms but certainly in terms of ease of driving).
  • eekeek Posts: 29,520
    edited March 31

    Nigelb said:

    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    Weirdly solar has now crashed to zero: https://grid.iamkate.com/

    How strange is that?

    Serious point though - how does the solar power that's fed in to the grid overnight having been stored at generation site batteries get counted?
    There's a section for stored energy generation. We don't have a lot of battery storage though. Solar is still, despite what Robert might say, not viable in the UK. We just need to dump £20bn into the RR modular nuclear reactors and get them started up with a manufacturing pilot line and the first few reactors built and running by 2030. If we approve it and get RR started today we might make it but the government moves like molasses and our tech leadership is slipping away without that big order and backing for RR from the UK.

    As a side note I was speaking to an energy investor here in Florence today and he confirmed what I already suspected that RR and other UK companies struggle to get overseas money because they don't have the UK government vote of confidence. It's difficult to get foreign governments to buy something that its own one seems uninterested in and he was saying that's the resistance RR are running into when they make their sales pitch "if it's as good as you say then why is your own government not already placing an order for 10 of these and looking at an American solution instead?" is the question they can't answer.
    Are we actually looking at an American solution? Wtf?
    We should absolutely look at an American solution as part of a thorough assessment

    The issue is that the treasury scoring method puts zero weight on the strategic value of domestic capabilities
    Which is frankly insane.

    How do they weight the potential economic value of kickstarting a domestic manufacturer ?
    Or is that also ignored ?
    The solution is to suggest offshoring the Treasury.
    I would have suggested shifting it lock stock and barrel to Treasury North but they are equally incompetent even when reality is staring at them from

    1) the empty (former) coffee shop outside their current front door
    2) the lack of progress actually building their new office.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,066
    One term latest:

    Project to bring solar electric from Morocco may not come to UK now thanks to slowness of government response and red tape. Means a factory to make cables will not be in Scotland.

    We can't do anything in this country can we?


    ‘Back our £25bn green energy project or we’ll take it overseas’
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/03/30/sir-dave-lewis-xlinks-green-energy-project-morocco/
  • eekeek Posts: 29,520
    For anyone who has a Personal / Family Microsoft / Office 365 licence Amazon.de are currently offering 15 month subscriptions for €68.

    Microsoft are about to double the price of them so I've just purchased 3.75 years worth so I won't be subjected to the new added Copilot prices until 2029...
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,375
    eek said:

    For anyone who has a Personal / Family Microsoft / Office 365 licence Amazon.de are currently offering 15 month subscriptions for €68.

    Microsoft are about to double the price of them so I've just purchased 3.75 years worth so I won't be subjected to the new added Copilot prices until 2029...

    Apparently there's a way to buy them for less, without Copilot. Saw it as a comment weeks/months ago, can't remember the details unfortunately.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,176
    Good morning everyone, and thanks for the header.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,176
    Brains Trust

    I'm trying to wrangle a header on the role of religion in MAGA / Trumpism, and I'm looking at other places.

    The House and Senate, like the Lords and Commons, have a daily opening prayer by a Chaplain (I was surprised). So much for "separation of Church and State" :wink: .

    My question is what do other Parliaments, eg France, do in this slot - to remind their MPs that they are not there for themselves, but something greater.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,826
    eek said:

    Nigelb said:

    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    Weirdly solar has now crashed to zero: https://grid.iamkate.com/

    How strange is that?

    Serious point though - how does the solar power that's fed in to the grid overnight having been stored at generation site batteries get counted?
    There's a section for stored energy generation. We don't have a lot of battery storage though. Solar is still, despite what Robert might say, not viable in the UK. We just need to dump £20bn into the RR modular nuclear reactors and get them started up with a manufacturing pilot line and the first few reactors built and running by 2030. If we approve it and get RR started today we might make it but the government moves like molasses and our tech leadership is slipping away without that big order and backing for RR from the UK.

    As a side note I was speaking to an energy investor here in Florence today and he confirmed what I already suspected that RR and other UK companies struggle to get overseas money because they don't have the UK government vote of confidence. It's difficult to get foreign governments to buy something that its own one seems uninterested in and he was saying that's the resistance RR are running into when they make their sales pitch "if it's as good as you say then why is your own government not already placing an order for 10 of these and looking at an American solution instead?" is the question they can't answer.
    Are we actually looking at an American solution? Wtf?
    We should absolutely look at an American solution as part of a thorough assessment

    The issue is that the treasury scoring method puts zero weight on the strategic value of domestic capabilities
    Which is frankly insane.

    How do they weight the potential economic value of kickstarting a domestic manufacturer ?
    Or is that also ignored ?
    The solution is to suggest offshoring the Treasury.
    I would have suggested shifting it lock stock and barrel to Treasury North but they are equally incompetent even when reality is staring at them from

    1) the empty (former) coffee shop outside their current front door
    2) the lack of progress actually building their new office.
    Block book a 3 star hotel. If it’s good enough for migrants…..
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,821
    Just noting FPT that Lord Sumption has apparently come out in favour of Letby being perhaps innocent, though the report in the Mail is extremely thin and adds nothing of substance to the story, though Sumption is one of the weightiest figure in the law.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14553061/supreme-court-judge-Lucy-Letby-innocent.html

    FWIW, though I think the case against Letby is sound, I think there is going to be enough for the CCRC to refer the verdicts back to the Court of Appeal.

    That's the easy bit. There is a very recent example of how the CA deals with CCRC referrals, from a case where the evidence is very thin indeed and where there was apparent grounds that a 'cell confession' (a notorious field) had been retracted by the unreliable criminal alleging it had been made.

    The CA carved through it with an interesting mix of scalpel and bulldozer, upholding the conviction. Not for the faint hearted it is here:

    https://www.bailii.org/ew/cases/EWCA/Crim/2025/345.html

    Compared with this the case against Letby is strong.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,286
    edited March 31
    boulay said:

    Leon said:

    boulay said:

    Leon said:

    Don’t know about you but I’m drinking Yunnanese tea in the apricot orchards by the fabled harem in the summer palace of Amir al-Mu’minin (The Commander of the Faithful), Khan of the Manghit Dynasty, Protector of the Holy Cities of Bukhara and Samarkand, Shadow of God on Earth, Sultan of the Faithful and Sword of Islam, Heir to the Throne of Timur, The Pillar of Justice and Light of the Age, Sayid Alid Khan - the Last Emir of Bukhara

    Another Monday morning, eh

    Is your visa still valid to Myanmar? If so you could nip in there and do some journalism as apparently the authorities don’t have the resources to issue visas to foreign journos

    You could get a good speccie article out of it about how you managed to provide interesting coverage of the earthquake to outsiders down to the luck of having been to yet another country that went tits up after you visited.

    A hint of pique in your commands?
    Absolutely not - was a genuine query/suggestion - would be quite the adventure and story by virtue of you still having a rare journalist visa.
    Ah fair enough. I misconstrued you - my bad

    Unfortunately:

    1 pretty sure my journo’s visa has expired and

    2. My fairly fixed itinerary takes me on to Samarkand and then places further east

    I just drank Zoroastrian soup. Literally soup from a
    2500 year old recipe from Zoroastrian times. Kind of stewed wheatsprouts. It tastes 2500 years old as well

    Hm
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,375
    Leon said:

    boulay said:

    Leon said:

    boulay said:

    Leon said:

    Don’t know about you but I’m drinking Yunnanese tea in the apricot orchards by the fabled harem in the summer palace of Amir al-Mu’minin (The Commander of the Faithful), Khan of the Manghit Dynasty, Protector of the Holy Cities of Bukhara and Samarkand, Shadow of God on Earth, Sultan of the Faithful and Sword of Islam, Heir to the Throne of Timur, The Pillar of Justice and Light of the Age, Sayid Alid Khan - the Last Emir of Bukhara

    Another Monday morning, eh

    Is your visa still valid to Myanmar? If so you could nip in there and do some journalism as apparently the authorities don’t have the resources to issue visas to foreign journos

    You could get a good speccie article out of it about how you managed to provide interesting coverage of the earthquake to outsiders down to the luck of having been to yet another country that went tits up after you visited.

    A hint of pique in your commands?
    Absolutely not - was a genuine query/suggestion - would be quite the adventure and story by virtue of you still having a rare journalist visa.
    Ah fair enough. I misconstrued you - my bad

    Unfortunately:

    1 pretty sure my journo’s visa has expired and

    2. My fairly fixed itinerary takes me on to Samarkand and then places further east

    I just drank Zoroastrian soup. Literally soup from a
    2500 year old recipe from Zoroastrian times. Kind of stewed wheatsprouts. It tastes 2500 years old as well

    Hm
    Interesting that's available, so far east. Many Zoroastrians there?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,264

    I've read various pieces and comments across the tinterweb suggesting that now is the time to rejoin the EU.

    Why? The EU project is about to substantially evolve again. Mutual defence is now going to be just as important as anything else, which means countries outside the EU such as UK and Norway being heavily involved.

    We will be part of the post-EU framework, without question.

    It's not primarily defence. The EU is an economic superpower which will be enhanced with the the re-inclusion of the UK and maybe Norway. If the EU is undergoing the change you're talking about there is no better time to get back back in. This time including Schengen and the Euro.

    Not the half in half out -part American part European-that led to Farage and his wreckers last time. This time with Trump we wouldn't have a choice but to enter full on.

  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,457

    One term latest:

    Project to bring solar electric from Morocco may not come to UK now thanks to slowness of government response and red tape. Means a factory to make cables will not be in Scotland.

    We can't do anything in this country can we?


    ‘Back our £25bn green energy project or we’ll take it overseas’
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/03/30/sir-dave-lewis-xlinks-green-energy-project-morocco/

    What do you expect from a moronic government that doesn't even want to use our own energy resources in the North Sea?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,529
    The 22nd amendment is clear presidents cannot run for a third term. Not even this SC can change that interpretation and amending it needs a 2/3 majority this president does not have in Congress.
    Vance is also unlikely to agree to try and win the presidency and then hand over to Trump as Trump suggested was one way around it
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,331
    MaxPB said:

    Nigelb said:

    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    Weirdly solar has now crashed to zero: https://grid.iamkate.com/

    How strange is that?

    Serious point though - how does the solar power that's fed in to the grid overnight having been stored at generation site batteries get counted?
    There's a section for stored energy generation. We don't have a lot of battery storage though. Solar is still, despite what Robert might say, not viable in the UK. We just need to dump £20bn into the RR modular nuclear reactors and get them started up with a manufacturing pilot line and the first few reactors built and running by 2030. If we approve it and get RR started today we might make it but the government moves like molasses and our tech leadership is slipping away without that big order and backing for RR from the UK.

    As a side note I was speaking to an energy investor here in Florence today and he confirmed what I already suspected that RR and other UK companies struggle to get overseas money because they don't have the UK government vote of confidence. It's difficult to get foreign governments to buy something that its own one seems uninterested in and he was saying that's the resistance RR are running into when they make their sales pitch "if it's as good as you say then why is your own government not already placing an order for 10 of these and looking at an American solution instead?" is the question they can't answer.
    Are we actually looking at an American solution? Wtf?
    We should absolutely look at an American solution as part of a thorough assessment

    The issue is that the treasury scoring method puts zero weight on the strategic value of domestic capabilities
    Which is frankly insane.

    How do they weight the potential economic value of kickstarting a domestic manufacturer ?
    Or is that also ignored ?
    The treasury model simply doesn't work for a something from nothing industry. If it was up to the treasury they would have blocked investment tax rebates for AI in the 00s and 10s because the ROI was hugely negative for the government but somehow Osborne resisted them and told the bean counters to STFU.

    The treasury is, IMO, one of the most malign departments and absolutely opposed to economic growth. If we sacked all of them tomorrow, scrapped the models and started from scratch we'd see a huge change within a year.
    The Treasury sees economic growth as evil, and works on the assumption that all that we earn belongs to the State.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,286

    Leon said:

    boulay said:

    Leon said:

    boulay said:

    Leon said:

    Don’t know about you but I’m drinking Yunnanese tea in the apricot orchards by the fabled harem in the summer palace of Amir al-Mu’minin (The Commander of the Faithful), Khan of the Manghit Dynasty, Protector of the Holy Cities of Bukhara and Samarkand, Shadow of God on Earth, Sultan of the Faithful and Sword of Islam, Heir to the Throne of Timur, The Pillar of Justice and Light of the Age, Sayid Alid Khan - the Last Emir of Bukhara

    Another Monday morning, eh

    Is your visa still valid to Myanmar? If so you could nip in there and do some journalism as apparently the authorities don’t have the resources to issue visas to foreign journos

    You could get a good speccie article out of it about how you managed to provide interesting coverage of the earthquake to outsiders down to the luck of having been to yet another country that went tits up after you visited.

    A hint of pique in your commands?
    Absolutely not - was a genuine query/suggestion - would be quite the adventure and story by virtue of you still having a rare journalist visa.
    Ah fair enough. I misconstrued you - my bad

    Unfortunately:

    1 pretty sure my journo’s visa has expired and

    2. My fairly fixed itinerary takes me on to Samarkand and then places further east

    I just drank Zoroastrian soup. Literally soup from a
    2500 year old recipe from Zoroastrian times. Kind of stewed wheatsprouts. It tastes 2500 years old as well

    Hm
    Interesting that's available, so far east. Many Zoroastrians there?
    Not any more sadly (I love zoroastrians, maybe just coz it’s so old). Uzbekistan is now 100% Muslim - but a really agreeable laid back boozy hedonistic Islam. I haven’t seen a single burqa/niqab - you see far more in london. Even the hijab is rare. Women are proudly unveiled. People are super friendly

    Ramadan seems to be largely ignored (judging by the bustling cafes and restaurants when I arrived)

    However there are lots of tantalising traces of Zoroastrianism in the archaeology, culture, folklore, language - and food. It was once ubiquitous
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,529
    Fishing said:

    Trump is a walking advertisement for term limits.

    But I oppose them. They are unnecessary and deeply anti-democratic - there is already a mechanism called "elections" which limits a politician's term as head of state. And if the American people are idiotic enough to want Trump for another term, they should be allowed that option.

    It is comforting to think that it would be very difficult, if not impossible, for this particular incumbent to run again though.

    Whether Trump or Vance can win again depends on his tariffs creating more new manufacturing jobs than the cost of the price rises they bring
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,644
    Roger said:

    I've read various pieces and comments across the tinterweb suggesting that now is the time to rejoin the EU.

    Why? The EU project is about to substantially evolve again. Mutual defence is now going to be just as important as anything else, which means countries outside the EU such as UK and Norway being heavily involved.

    We will be part of the post-EU framework, without question.

    It's not primarily defence. The EU is an economic superpower which will be enhanced with the the re-inclusion of the UK and maybe Norway. If the EU is undergoing the change you're talking about there is no better time to get back back in. This time including Schengen and the Euro.

    Not the half in half out -part American part European-that led to Farage and his wreckers last time. This time with Trump we wouldn't have a choice but to enter full on.

    Its not primarily defence at the moment - but it will be. Economic strength will be a core component as we will need to supercharge our defence industries.

    Schengen and the Euro aren't core to the new direction of travel. "We'd like you to be a core player in our defence UK, but as you won't join the Euro we're going to say no" Unlikely.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,943
    That our banking systems teeter on the edge of collapse the last working day of every month is becoming a national embarrassment.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,520
    Sean_F said:

    MaxPB said:

    Nigelb said:

    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    Weirdly solar has now crashed to zero: https://grid.iamkate.com/

    How strange is that?

    Serious point though - how does the solar power that's fed in to the grid overnight having been stored at generation site batteries get counted?
    There's a section for stored energy generation. We don't have a lot of battery storage though. Solar is still, despite what Robert might say, not viable in the UK. We just need to dump £20bn into the RR modular nuclear reactors and get them started up with a manufacturing pilot line and the first few reactors built and running by 2030. If we approve it and get RR started today we might make it but the government moves like molasses and our tech leadership is slipping away without that big order and backing for RR from the UK.

    As a side note I was speaking to an energy investor here in Florence today and he confirmed what I already suspected that RR and other UK companies struggle to get overseas money because they don't have the UK government vote of confidence. It's difficult to get foreign governments to buy something that its own one seems uninterested in and he was saying that's the resistance RR are running into when they make their sales pitch "if it's as good as you say then why is your own government not already placing an order for 10 of these and looking at an American solution instead?" is the question they can't answer.
    Are we actually looking at an American solution? Wtf?
    We should absolutely look at an American solution as part of a thorough assessment

    The issue is that the treasury scoring method puts zero weight on the strategic value of domestic capabilities
    Which is frankly insane.

    How do they weight the potential economic value of kickstarting a domestic manufacturer ?
    Or is that also ignored ?
    The treasury model simply doesn't work for a something from nothing industry. If it was up to the treasury they would have blocked investment tax rebates for AI in the 00s and 10s because the ROI was hugely negative for the government but somehow Osborne resisted them and told the bean counters to STFU.

    The treasury is, IMO, one of the most malign departments and absolutely opposed to economic growth. If we sacked all of them tomorrow, scrapped the models and started from scratch we'd see a huge change within a year.
    The Treasury sees economic growth as evil, and works on the assumption that all that we earn belongs to the State.
    The Treasury see the absolutely price of everything and the value of nothing / hence London gets an M25 bypass while Manchester (which actually needs a motorway traffic only bypass to fix the M60) gets nothing
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,943
    We're getting two weeks of the most perfect weather, sunny and warm but not excessively hot. It's no time to be away.

    Meanwhile, on topic, the Simpsons did a piece with Trump lying dead in a coffin on 12 April 2025. Not long to wait, now...
  • eekeek Posts: 29,520

    eek said:

    Nigelb said:

    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    Weirdly solar has now crashed to zero: https://grid.iamkate.com/

    How strange is that?

    Serious point though - how does the solar power that's fed in to the grid overnight having been stored at generation site batteries get counted?
    There's a section for stored energy generation. We don't have a lot of battery storage though. Solar is still, despite what Robert might say, not viable in the UK. We just need to dump £20bn into the RR modular nuclear reactors and get them started up with a manufacturing pilot line and the first few reactors built and running by 2030. If we approve it and get RR started today we might make it but the government moves like molasses and our tech leadership is slipping away without that big order and backing for RR from the UK.

    As a side note I was speaking to an energy investor here in Florence today and he confirmed what I already suspected that RR and other UK companies struggle to get overseas money because they don't have the UK government vote of confidence. It's difficult to get foreign governments to buy something that its own one seems uninterested in and he was saying that's the resistance RR are running into when they make their sales pitch "if it's as good as you say then why is your own government not already placing an order for 10 of these and looking at an American solution instead?" is the question they can't answer.
    Are we actually looking at an American solution? Wtf?
    We should absolutely look at an American solution as part of a thorough assessment

    The issue is that the treasury scoring method puts zero weight on the strategic value of domestic capabilities
    Which is frankly insane.

    How do they weight the potential economic value of kickstarting a domestic manufacturer ?
    Or is that also ignored ?
    The solution is to suggest offshoring the Treasury.
    I would have suggested shifting it lock stock and barrel to Treasury North but they are equally incompetent even when reality is staring at them from

    1) the empty (former) coffee shop outside their current front door
    2) the lack of progress actually building their new office.
    Block book a 3 star hotel. If it’s good enough for migrants…..
    Remember that Premier Inn (as they posted multiple times over the weekend) don’t provide rooms for migrants (which is true). What they’ve done at least twice though is close down the hotel and sell it to Britainnaire who do so.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,359
    Fishing said:

    Trump is a walking advertisement for term limits.

    But I oppose them. They are unnecessary and deeply anti-democratic - there is already a mechanism called "elections" which limits a politician's term as head of state. And if the American people are idiotic enough to want Trump for another term, they should be allowed that option.

    It is comforting to think that it would be very difficult, if not impossible, for this particular incumbent to run again though.

    While I broadly agree with you (that term limits are anti-democratic), I think the argument for them is that the presidency is such a powerful and honoured position, that extensive time in the role also has an anti-democratic effect and presidential term limits serve as another check or balance. Now the Supreme Court has given the president almost unlimited power, that argument is stronger.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,520

    My primary business is evolving so that we're now an importer of products made by part of Big Client Group. We've been a customer for a while, having designed and then operated a web store for one brand, taking product already imported to the UK. But now we're an importer as well.

    And what a bloody faff that is. Its good that I have a pre-existing relationship with a customs broker. But the process of setting up with CDS and IPAFFS is hassle enough, and that's before we start doing actual paperwork. Happily all of the graft is with the exporter, but even so.

    The Boris Brexit settlement has made trade so bloody difficult - the exact kind of bureaucratic red tape which Tories used to pledge to cut has now become a core part of their reason to exist. Look at all this red tape we have created for you! This is your Brexit bonus this is, scrapping red tape from pen pushers in Brussels and replacing it with red tape from good honest BRITISH pen pushers.

    What red tape was involved in importing / exporting from say France / Germany to the uk between 2010 and 2020? I don’t remember much
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,794
    eek said:

    Sean_F said:

    MaxPB said:

    Nigelb said:

    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    Weirdly solar has now crashed to zero: https://grid.iamkate.com/

    How strange is that?

    Serious point though - how does the solar power that's fed in to the grid overnight having been stored at generation site batteries get counted?
    There's a section for stored energy generation. We don't have a lot of battery storage though. Solar is still, despite what Robert might say, not viable in the UK. We just need to dump £20bn into the RR modular nuclear reactors and get them started up with a manufacturing pilot line and the first few reactors built and running by 2030. If we approve it and get RR started today we might make it but the government moves like molasses and our tech leadership is slipping away without that big order and backing for RR from the UK.

    As a side note I was speaking to an energy investor here in Florence today and he confirmed what I already suspected that RR and other UK companies struggle to get overseas money because they don't have the UK government vote of confidence. It's difficult to get foreign governments to buy something that its own one seems uninterested in and he was saying that's the resistance RR are running into when they make their sales pitch "if it's as good as you say then why is your own government not already placing an order for 10 of these and looking at an American solution instead?" is the question they can't answer.
    Are we actually looking at an American solution? Wtf?
    We should absolutely look at an American solution as part of a thorough assessment

    The issue is that the treasury scoring method puts zero weight on the strategic value of domestic capabilities
    Which is frankly insane.

    How do they weight the potential economic value of kickstarting a domestic manufacturer ?
    Or is that also ignored ?
    The treasury model simply doesn't work for a something from nothing industry. If it was up to the treasury they would have blocked investment tax rebates for AI in the 00s and 10s because the ROI was hugely negative for the government but somehow Osborne resisted them and told the bean counters to STFU.

    The treasury is, IMO, one of the most malign departments and absolutely opposed to economic growth. If we sacked all of them tomorrow, scrapped the models and started from scratch we'd see a huge change within a year.
    The Treasury sees economic growth as evil, and works on the assumption that all that we earn belongs to the State.
    The Treasury see the absolutely price of everything and the value of nothing / hence London gets an M25 bypass while Manchester (which actually needs a motorway traffic only bypass to fix the M60) gets nothing
    The model they use means they'd rather put money into a project that takes something from £500bn to £510bn than into one that turns £40bn into £49bn, fundamentally the way the country is run is flawed.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,077
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    Weirdly solar has now crashed to zero: https://grid.iamkate.com/

    How strange is that?

    Serious point though - how does the solar power that's fed in to the grid overnight having been stored at generation site batteries get counted?
    There's a section for stored energy generation. We don't have a lot of battery storage though. Solar is still, despite what Robert might say, not viable in the UK. We just need to dump £20bn into the RR modular nuclear reactors and get them started up with a manufacturing pilot line and the first few reactors built and running by 2030. If we approve it and get RR started today we might make it but the government moves like molasses and our tech leadership is slipping away without that big order and backing for RR from the UK.

    As a side note I was speaking to an energy investor here in Florence today and he confirmed what I already suspected that RR and other UK companies struggle to get overseas money because they don't have the UK government vote of confidence. It's difficult to get foreign governments to buy something that its own one seems uninterested in and he was saying that's the resistance RR are running into when they make their sales pitch "if it's as good as you say then why is your own government not already placing an order for 10 of these and looking at an American solution instead?" is the question they can't answer.
    Are we actually looking at an American solution? Wtf?
    Yes, and the assessment has been pushed out to 2028 iirc, it's a bit of a joke really for a country that has hugely rising energy demand with AI being our biggest growth industry and companies looking for cheap, stable power supply which neither wind nor solar can provide.
    Whilst this March has been amazing for solar generation, it's not the norm. I think Robert forgets just how little sunlight we get some winters (It's not just the shortened day hours but the massive low pressure cloud blocks, and even high pressure anticyclonic gloom.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,945
    algarkirk said:

    Just noting FPT that Lord Sumption has apparently come out in favour of Letby being perhaps innocent, though the report in the Mail is extremely thin and adds nothing of substance to the story, though Sumption is one of the weightiest figure in the law.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14553061/supreme-court-judge-Lucy-Letby-innocent.html

    FWIW, though I think the case against Letby is sound, I think there is going to be enough for the CCRC to refer the verdicts back to the Court of Appeal.

    That's the easy bit. There is a very recent example of how the CA deals with CCRC referrals, from a case where the evidence is very thin indeed and where there was apparent grounds that a 'cell confession' (a notorious field) had been retracted by the unreliable criminal alleging it had been made.

    The CA carved through it with an interesting mix of scalpel and bulldozer, upholding the conviction. Not for the faint hearted it is here:

    https://www.bailii.org/ew/cases/EWCA/Crim/2025/345.html

    Compared with this the case against Letby is strong.

    I have no idea on the Letby case (guilt is deterministic not statistical and statistical evidence should not be sufficient for a guilty verdict) but "Supreme Judge has an reckon because some of the people he knows has a reckon" has exactly the same status as "bloke down the pub said so". Sumption is far too keen on talking to the press.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,176
    Roger said:

    I've read various pieces and comments across the tinterweb suggesting that now is the time to rejoin the EU.

    Why? The EU project is about to substantially evolve again. Mutual defence is now going to be just as important as anything else, which means countries outside the EU such as UK and Norway being heavily involved.

    We will be part of the post-EU framework, without question.

    It's not primarily defence. The EU is an economic superpower which will be enhanced with the the re-inclusion of the UK and maybe Norway. If the EU is undergoing the change you're talking about there is no better time to get back back in. This time including Schengen and the Euro.

    Not the half in half out -part American part European-that led to Farage and his wreckers last time. This time with Trump we wouldn't have a choice but to enter full on.

    Perun yesterday was an amusing "How can Europe rebuild armed forces not dependent on the USA?"

    Could you Rearm Europe without US Weapons? - Equipping a Unified European Military (April 1 special)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BFoJGHZEqAk
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,943
    IanB2 said:

    That our banking systems teeter on the edge of collapse the last working day of every month is becoming a national embarrassment.

    The last two months, they blamed the last day of the month falling on a Friday; that's obviously now proven BS.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,359
    viewcode said:

    algarkirk said:

    Just noting FPT that Lord Sumption has apparently come out in favour of Letby being perhaps innocent, though the report in the Mail is extremely thin and adds nothing of substance to the story, though Sumption is one of the weightiest figure in the law.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14553061/supreme-court-judge-Lucy-Letby-innocent.html

    FWIW, though I think the case against Letby is sound, I think there is going to be enough for the CCRC to refer the verdicts back to the Court of Appeal.

    That's the easy bit. There is a very recent example of how the CA deals with CCRC referrals, from a case where the evidence is very thin indeed and where there was apparent grounds that a 'cell confession' (a notorious field) had been retracted by the unreliable criminal alleging it had been made.

    The CA carved through it with an interesting mix of scalpel and bulldozer, upholding the conviction. Not for the faint hearted it is here:

    https://www.bailii.org/ew/cases/EWCA/Crim/2025/345.html

    Compared with this the case against Letby is strong.

    I have no idea on the Letby case (guilt is deterministic not statistical and statistical evidence should not be sufficient for a guilty verdict) but "Supreme Judge has an reckon because some of the people he knows has a reckon" has exactly the same status as "bloke down the pub said so". Sumption is far too keen on talking to the press.
    The evidence against Letby -- which was presented over 26 weeks, which shows how much there was and how much it was scrutinised -- was not purely statistical.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,794
    Pulpstar said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    Weirdly solar has now crashed to zero: https://grid.iamkate.com/

    How strange is that?

    Serious point though - how does the solar power that's fed in to the grid overnight having been stored at generation site batteries get counted?
    There's a section for stored energy generation. We don't have a lot of battery storage though. Solar is still, despite what Robert might say, not viable in the UK. We just need to dump £20bn into the RR modular nuclear reactors and get them started up with a manufacturing pilot line and the first few reactors built and running by 2030. If we approve it and get RR started today we might make it but the government moves like molasses and our tech leadership is slipping away without that big order and backing for RR from the UK.

    As a side note I was speaking to an energy investor here in Florence today and he confirmed what I already suspected that RR and other UK companies struggle to get overseas money because they don't have the UK government vote of confidence. It's difficult to get foreign governments to buy something that its own one seems uninterested in and he was saying that's the resistance RR are running into when they make their sales pitch "if it's as good as you say then why is your own government not already placing an order for 10 of these and looking at an American solution instead?" is the question they can't answer.
    Are we actually looking at an American solution? Wtf?
    Yes, and the assessment has been pushed out to 2028 iirc, it's a bit of a joke really for a country that has hugely rising energy demand with AI being our biggest growth industry and companies looking for cheap, stable power supply which neither wind nor solar can provide.
    Whilst this March has been amazing for solar generation, it's not the norm. I think Robert forgets just how little sunlight we get some winters (It's not just the shortened day hours but the massive low pressure cloud blocks, and even high pressure anticyclonic gloom.
    Yup the number of days we'd have that gave us enough power to use for the whole day during sunlight hours and have excess generation to fill up a battery is extremely low. For probably 90/100 days in the summer the battery wouldn't be able to charge to 100% due to daytime power use and cloudy conditions causing lower than peak production.

    Solar is simply not viable in an overcast country, we should be pumping all of our money into SMRs and fusion power research we can't afford for China to beat us to it.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,456

    The evidence against Letby -- which was presented over 26 weeks, which shows how much there was and how much it was scrutinised -- was not purely statistical.

    No

    Some of it was circumstantial
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,440

    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    Weirdly solar has now crashed to zero: https://grid.iamkate.com/

    How strange is that?

    Serious point though - how does the solar power that's fed in to the grid overnight having been stored at generation site batteries get counted?
    There's a section for stored energy generation. We don't have a lot of battery storage though. Solar is still, despite what Robert might say, not viable in the UK. We just need to dump £20bn into the RR modular nuclear reactors and get them started up with a manufacturing pilot line and the first few reactors built and running by 2030. If we approve it and get RR started today we might make it but the government moves like molasses and our tech leadership is slipping away without that big order and backing for RR from the UK.

    As a side note I was speaking to an energy investor here in Florence today and he confirmed what I already suspected that RR and other UK companies struggle to get overseas money because they don't have the UK government vote of confidence. It's difficult to get foreign governments to buy something that its own one seems uninterested in and he was saying that's the resistance RR are running into when they make their sales pitch "if it's as good as you say then why is your own government not already placing an order for 10 of these and looking at an American solution instead?" is the question they can't answer.
    Are we actually looking at an American solution? Wtf?
    We should absolutely look at an American solution as part of a thorough assessment

    The issue is that the treasury scoring method puts zero weight on the strategic value of domestic capabilities
    These people hate their own country.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,945
    edited March 31
    Thank you all for your comments, pro- and con, on my "Matter of Britain" article. I will go thru them and summarise later today.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,900
    Roger said:

    I've read various pieces and comments across the tinterweb suggesting that now is the time to rejoin the EU.

    Why? The EU project is about to substantially evolve again. Mutual defence is now going to be just as important as anything else, which means countries outside the EU such as UK and Norway being heavily involved.

    We will be part of the post-EU framework, without question.

    It's not primarily defence. The EU is an economic superpower which will be enhanced with the the re-inclusion of the UK and maybe Norway. If the EU is undergoing the change you're talking about there is no better time to get back back in. This time including Schengen and the Euro.

    Not the half in half out -part American part European-that led to Farage and his wreckers last time. This time with Trump we wouldn't have a choice but to enter full on.

    You seem to think we can suddenly decide to re-join when no main stream political party is anywhere near proposing it, nor is there a mandate for such a change, so it is a pipedrram to expect the UK rejoining the EU in the lifetime of this parliament

    However, an evolving movement towards a new defence and trading agreement much wider than the narrow EU membership is now a real opportunity
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,591
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    That our banking systems teeter on the edge of collapse the last working day of every month is becoming a national embarrassment.

    The last two months, they blamed the last day of the month falling on a Friday; that's obviously now proven BS.
    Why do you think I process all my transitions on the 15th?
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,591

    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    Weirdly solar has now crashed to zero: https://grid.iamkate.com/

    How strange is that?

    Serious point though - how does the solar power that's fed in to the grid overnight having been stored at generation site batteries get counted?
    There's a section for stored energy generation. We don't have a lot of battery storage though. Solar is still, despite what Robert might say, not viable in the UK. We just need to dump £20bn into the RR modular nuclear reactors and get them started up with a manufacturing pilot line and the first few reactors built and running by 2030. If we approve it and get RR started today we might make it but the government moves like molasses and our tech leadership is slipping away without that big order and backing for RR from the UK.

    As a side note I was speaking to an energy investor here in Florence today and he confirmed what I already suspected that RR and other UK companies struggle to get overseas money because they don't have the UK government vote of confidence. It's difficult to get foreign governments to buy something that its own one seems uninterested in and he was saying that's the resistance RR are running into when they make their sales pitch "if it's as good as you say then why is your own government not already placing an order for 10 of these and looking at an American solution instead?" is the question they can't answer.
    Are we actually looking at an American solution? Wtf?
    We should absolutely look at an American solution as part of a thorough assessment

    The issue is that the treasury scoring method puts zero weight on the strategic value of domestic capabilities
    These people hate their own country.
    No, they don’t. They’re just idiots. Unfortunately they are idiots who think they are smart, which is among the most dangerous type
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,176

    Fishing said:

    Trump is a walking advertisement for term limits.

    But I oppose them. They are unnecessary and deeply anti-democratic - there is already a mechanism called "elections" which limits a politician's term as head of state. And if the American people are idiotic enough to want Trump for another term, they should be allowed that option.

    It is comforting to think that it would be very difficult, if not impossible, for this particular incumbent to run again though.

    While I broadly agree with you (that term limits are anti-democratic), I think the argument for them is that the presidency is such a powerful and honoured position, that extensive time in the role also has an anti-democratic effect and presidential term limits serve as another check or balance. Now the Supreme Court has given the president almost unlimited power, that argument is stronger.
    I think Term Limits are simply one way to mitigate a known issue with democratic systems; it's a matter of practicality and trade-offs.

    I don't see that as anti-democratic, because that depends on postulating a perfect system, which we know does not exist.

    We don't want to be doing the political equivalent of trying to invent a perpetual motion machine.
  • Crazy how many people were shooting down a few of us for saying this was a possibility, merely a month ago.

    I don’t know what about this Presidency so far gives people the idea that the status quo / ‘Norms’ will necessarily continue to hold.

    That said, I agree with others who think 16/1 is poor value because if Vance is top of the ticket and Trump VP, it won’t pay out.

    WHEREAS as a trading bet on Betfair - the above would still represent big value. Because there’s always a huge influx of money from non-regular betters on the Presidential Market - and Trump in particular. I dare say your 16/1 could look extremely good in a short time to trade out for a profit.

    And of course, if Betfair offer a differently worded market like, “Who will be President on January 21, 2029?” or similar then that’s likely the bigger value bet. But you’d imagine odd would be lower to reflect that.

    Perhaps betting Vance as the VP Nominee? Interesting to see where he goes in all of this - you imagine he’d much rather have his shot in 2028, because if he waits until 2032, that might not really be a better chance for him
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