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The bookies are now offering odds on Trump winning in 2028/a third term – politicalbetting.com
The bookies are now offering odds on Trump winning in 2028/a third term – politicalbetting.com
Both Ladbrokes and William Hill are now offering on odds on Trump winning in 2028 or a third time via presidential election, I think this is a suitable move, as a trading bet at 16/1.
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Apart from a Constitutional ammendment the only way is not enforcing the Constitution.
The issue is that the treasury scoring method puts zero weight on the strategic value of domestic capabilities
His vanity is unlikely to give him a third term, but it is quite likely to be a useful tool for those around him who want to subvert the electoral process for their own ends.
The biggest threat to Trump not running again isn't AOC, or Bernie Sanders, or Gavin Newsom or any other Democrat.
The biggest threat to stopping him is a man called Ronald McDonald.
How do they weight the potential economic value of kickstarting a domestic manufacturer ?
Or is that also ignored ?
For 5 yrs, I’ve warned you—I hate to say I told you so. I said if Donald Trump ever got back in office, he’d do everything in his power not to leave. Now, it’s unfolding. My sources say it’s more serious than ever. They’re laying the groundwork. Steve Bannon & others are pushing it. Trump’s inner circle has had discussions—real plans—to make this happen. He’s dead serious. This isn’t a joke.
https://x.com/levparnas/status/1906453119426285923
But again, this is not so much about Trump, as it is about what his party has now become under him.
I very much doubt the problem would go away if he karked it tomorrow.
A legal trick they could use is to say that there's no congressional legislation to regulate the 22nd Amendment. (The same argument they used to keep Trump on the ballot in the Colorado case.)
The Congressman Dan Goldman tried to introduce a Bill to codify the 22nd Amendment in legislation, but obviously there's zero chance it'll pass.
What is outrageous is the obvious determination to hang on to power by whatever means necessary.
Trump won't spend his own money to get re-elected. The patsies won't stump up for more recession. Or worse.
Another Monday morning, eh
And there's a feedback loop between the likelihood of punishment and the outrageousness of their efforts to avoid punishment.
I win.
Why? The EU project is about to substantially evolve again. Mutual defence is now going to be just as important as anything else, which means countries outside the EU such as UK and Norway being heavily involved.
We will be part of the post-EU framework, without question.
He had 365 wives and concubines, used to boil erring servants alive in oil, threw British envoys into “the bug pit” (full of snakes and spiders), recited Persian poetry and loved Sufi mystics, had secret parties of hashish mulberry wine and rosewater, but was kicked out by the bolsheviks and ended his life in Kabul, drinking English gin in sullen and morose silence
I have to admit a bit of envy as it's a part of the world I'm unlikely to get around to seeing.
So much for all the so called Trump outrage at Russia .
“Never seen something like this,” say university officials about the secret targeting of Middle Eastern students.
https://zeteo.com/p/ice-manually-revoking-university-students-residency-status-middle-east
Though the sullen and morose silence is a bit of a stretch.
https://x.com/KSpaceAcademy/status/1906341521097400526
Just a little reminder that people are, on the whole, kind, and will often help strangers. Even foreigners.
I know you think China is shiny, but all the things you dislike Trump for *trying* to do, are settled state policy in China. Plus lots worse.
They are understandably elated
We should make them pay a fee to join our defence team.... MAGA-Mode/
You could get a good speccie article out of it about how you managed to provide interesting coverage of the earthquake to outsiders down to the luck of having been to yet another country that went tits up after you visited.
Absolutely - An opportunity has arisen to create a much wider defence and trading organisation to include Canada, UK, Norway and others to the benefit of all
F1: Tsunoda's reportedly targeting a podium in Japan. It would be astonishing if that actually occurred. My guess is that Lawson will outqualify him, but we shall see.
Basically it’s government by accountants
If Lawson is better than Tsunoda than we will know once and for all that the Red Bull car is dire and built for Max (we won't know anything more until Max moves to another team). If Tsunoda beats Lawson then we know Lawson was moved to early.
But I oppose them. They are unnecessary and deeply anti-democratic - there is already a mechanism called "elections" which limits a politician's term as head of state. And if the American people are idiotic enough to want Trump for another term, they should be allowed that option.
It is comforting to think that it would be very difficult, if not impossible, for this particular incumbent to run again though.
But if Trump is running in 2028, he'll be the only name on the ballot paper.
Tsunoda should've scored good points at both races so far but was shafted by the Racing Bulls strategy calls. If he finishes 11th and reaches Q2, that would be a significant improvement, but still strongly indicative of the Red Bull being inferior (perhaps not in pace terms but certainly in terms of ease of driving).
1) the empty (former) coffee shop outside their current front door
2) the lack of progress actually building their new office.
Project to bring solar electric from Morocco may not come to UK now thanks to slowness of government response and red tape. Means a factory to make cables will not be in Scotland.
We can't do anything in this country can we?
‘Back our £25bn green energy project or we’ll take it overseas’
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/03/30/sir-dave-lewis-xlinks-green-energy-project-morocco/
Microsoft are about to double the price of them so I've just purchased 3.75 years worth so I won't be subjected to the new added Copilot prices until 2029...
I'm trying to wrangle a header on the role of religion in MAGA / Trumpism, and I'm looking at other places.
The House and Senate, like the Lords and Commons, have a daily opening prayer by a Chaplain (I was surprised). So much for "separation of Church and State"
My question is what do other Parliaments, eg France, do in this slot - to remind their MPs that they are not there for themselves, but something greater.
The treasury is, IMO, one of the most malign departments and absolutely opposed to economic growth. If we sacked all of them tomorrow, scrapped the models and started from scratch we'd see a huge change within a year.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14553061/supreme-court-judge-Lucy-Letby-innocent.html
FWIW, though I think the case against Letby is sound, I think there is going to be enough for the CCRC to refer the verdicts back to the Court of Appeal.
That's the easy bit. There is a very recent example of how the CA deals with CCRC referrals, from a case where the evidence is very thin indeed and where there was apparent grounds that a 'cell confession' (a notorious field) had been retracted by the unreliable criminal alleging it had been made.
The CA carved through it with an interesting mix of scalpel and bulldozer, upholding the conviction. Not for the faint hearted it is here:
https://www.bailii.org/ew/cases/EWCA/Crim/2025/345.html
Compared with this the case against Letby is strong.
Unfortunately:
1 pretty sure my journo’s visa has expired and
2. My fairly fixed itinerary takes me on to Samarkand and then places further east
I just drank Zoroastrian soup. Literally soup from a
2500 year old recipe from Zoroastrian times. Kind of stewed wheatsprouts. It tastes 2500 years old as well
Hm
Not the half in half out -part American part European-that led to Farage and his wreckers last time. This time with Trump we wouldn't have a choice but to enter full on.
Vance is also unlikely to agree to try and win the presidency and then hand over to Trump as Trump suggested was one way around it
Ramadan seems to be largely ignored (judging by the bustling cafes and restaurants when I arrived)
However there are lots of tantalising traces of Zoroastrianism in the archaeology, culture, folklore, language - and food. It was once ubiquitous
Schengen and the Euro aren't core to the new direction of travel. "We'd like you to be a core player in our defence UK, but as you won't join the Euro we're going to say no" Unlikely.
Meanwhile, on topic, the Simpsons did a piece with Trump lying dead in a coffin on 12 April 2025. Not long to wait, now...
And what a bloody faff that is. Its good that I have a pre-existing relationship with a customs broker. But the process of setting up with CDS and IPAFFS is hassle enough, and that's before we start doing actual paperwork. Happily all of the graft is with the exporter, but even so.
The Boris Brexit settlement has made trade so bloody difficult - the exact kind of bureaucratic red tape which Tories used to pledge to cut has now become a core part of their reason to exist. Look at all this red tape we have created for you! This is your Brexit bonus this is, scrapping red tape from pen pushers in Brussels and replacing it with red tape from good honest BRITISH pen pushers.
Could you Rearm Europe without US Weapons? - Equipping a Unified European Military (April 1 special)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BFoJGHZEqAk
Solar is simply not viable in an overcast country, we should be pumping all of our money into SMRs and fusion power research we can't afford for China to beat us to it.
Some of it was circumstantial
However, an evolving movement towards a new defence and trading agreement much wider than the narrow EU membership is now a real opportunity
I don't see that as anti-democratic, because that depends on postulating a perfect system, which we know does not exist.
We don't want to be doing the political equivalent of trying to invent a perpetual motion machine.
I don’t know what about this Presidency so far gives people the idea that the status quo / ‘Norms’ will necessarily continue to hold.
That said, I agree with others who think 16/1 is poor value because if Vance is top of the ticket and Trump VP, it won’t pay out.
WHEREAS as a trading bet on Betfair - the above would still represent big value. Because there’s always a huge influx of money from non-regular betters on the Presidential Market - and Trump in particular. I dare say your 16/1 could look extremely good in a short time to trade out for a profit.
And of course, if Betfair offer a differently worded market like, “Who will be President on January 21, 2029?” or similar then that’s likely the bigger value bet. But you’d imagine odd would be lower to reflect that.
Perhaps betting Vance as the VP Nominee? Interesting to see where he goes in all of this - you imagine he’d much rather have his shot in 2028, because if he waits until 2032, that might not really be a better chance for him