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Is inflation the key metric for winning the general election? – politicalbetting.com

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  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,383

    The MOD needs gamers to fly drones

    Gamer's End?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,844

    eek said:

    carnforth said:

    Who could have predicted this?

    Record numbers of children, many from private schools, are applying to top state sixth forms for their A-levels, a rise partly driven by the introduction of VAT, according to head teachers.

    Some schools have reported applications doubling for Year 12 places.

    In January, the government removed independent schools’ exemption from VAT. Bridget Phillipson, the education secretary, said the exemption was a “luxury we cannot afford”. She predicted “very few families will move out of private schools”.


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/education/article/state-sixth-form-vat-private-school-fees-l5c0zlcnj

    With the bonus that universities will consider you a "state school student" if you do A levels at a state school.
    Yep - it's why I'm trying to see the story here - it's being going on for at least a decade..
    This bit, it has happened before but it is happening even more this year.

    Some schools have reported applications doubling for Year 12 places.
    It might force some reform of FE funding.
    https://feweek.co.uk/sixth-form-college-academisation-reaches-tipping-point/
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,844
    Lebensraum ??

    A German group, Lebensraum Vorpommern, has filed a further legal challenge against Poland's plans to construct a deepwater shipping terminal near the border with Germany.

    It claims the project "will lead to an environmental catastrophe"

    https://x.com/notesfrompoland/status/1905587977998266376
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,395
    Nigelb said:

    .

    Omnium said:

    Nigelb said:

    Omnium said:

    I've been reading (oh god I hear!) about the Royal Navy. A big history by NAM Roger - I think it was @Carnyx that was also so engaged.

    It really is very good.

    Anyway, one of the things that has recently struck me as interesting is how the government/admiralty fiddled the tendering process so that shipbuilding capacity would be maintained. It's oligarchical stuff but really fascinating.

    So anyway I have a question to you - have we lost the ability to find the minds needed for an oligarchy?

    (All the Lords and Ladies, Damsels (fruity M'Lord) and Dames are just a waste of space.)

    That's a very interesting question.

    A parallel is the career of Admiral Rickover.
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyman_G._Rickover
    Do you think the vacuum is there though? (I really struggle to think of anybody that I'd class as wise these days)
    Given the way we've run down defence over the last decade or two - along with engineering and manufacturing in general - it would be something of a surprise if there were many who even fully grasped the issues ?
    Oh there will be loads of us that have some sort of a grasp. Anyway I'm lurching towards some sort of a conclusion of thought that policy may be far more harmful than we think.

    For the brave - my conclusions are;

    Don't vote Labour (policy stuff)
    Don't vote Tory (performance stuff)

    Don't vote anyone else (insanity beckons)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,844
    Thoughts and prayers.

    Rep. Victoria Spartz's second and last town hall of this weekend -- this one in Muncie, Indiana -- is already starting off with boos and yelling from the 160 person audience.

    When she took the mic, the entire audience booed her.

    https://x.com/DaniellaMicaela/status/1906000112410566735
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,581

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Barnesian said:

    Just had my water bill.

    Huge increase.

    I reckon 17%.

    WTF?

    25% increase here.
    Mine has increased from £846 to £1,164 38%
    Thames Water
    I'm thinking of getting a meter.
    I'm thinking of renationalisation without compensation....
    Just let them go bust. That's how it's meant to operate.
    Quite right! The Government then buys the assets from the Receivers for £1.00 That's how it's supposed to work.
    Administration takes time and creates disruption. Worth paying a premium to avoid that

    No it isn't and this isn't a "premium" it's out and out price gouging by a monopoly supplier aided and abetted by the toothless regulator. Bankrupt the whole industry and nationalise it. Water should never have been privatised, customers have paid tens of billions in dividends to vulture capitalists and our rivers and beaches are more polluted than ever. No more dividends, no more leverage, no more private ownership of monopoly suppliers and bar the current
    and previous shareholders from purchasing UK infrastructure assets for a minimum
    period of 25 years.
    Administration is a procedural nightmare. What we need is a quick move to a resolution.

    If it takes given the equity holders 5p in the £ to get their support for a deal that avoids administration that is worth it.


    No, what we need is a reckoning for the parasites. Chase them out of the country with fucking pitchforks if necessary.
    The current owners are not the ones that caused the problem. They have made a terrible investment, that is all.

    Macquarie, on the other hand…
    Past and present shareholders across the whole industry. I mean they're still sucking dividends out to this day.
    They have made an investment and are entitled to a return on that.

    The basic failure here was (a) ZIRP, (b) OFWAT repeatedly mispricing debt - they relied on market calculations of WACC but Macquarie regularly achieved better than expected in the market; (c) OFWAT not regulating leverage; and (d) OFWAT allowing dividends to be paid when there was a capex backlog


    Basically Macquarie ran rings around OFWAT. The government should blacklist them for a decade. Problem is they are one of the most connected infra investors and we need infra funds to invest in the UK
    Surely no-one is entitled to return from an investment. If you fuck up, you lose your shirt. Profit is the reward for risk.
    Yes, but here @maxPB is talking about expropriation of the rights of people who have fucked up rather than the guilty
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,256
    edited March 29
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    I presume we've covered the BMG Poll in today's "I":

    Lab: 26% (NC)
    Con: 24% +2
    Ref: 23% -4
    LD 14% +2
    Grn 8% (NC)


    A poor poll for Reform but better for the Conservatives who, I think, have turned the corner though I still think the May locals won't be pleasant for Badenoch.

    I get the sense that Farage will either be found out or he'll do something stupid. His inappropriateness for the top job is Boris to the power of ten. Boris at least had a record with his time as mayor. Farage is just a wrecker and there's not a snowballs chance in Hell the majority of the public will risk him with their future
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,744
    Roger said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    I presume we've covered the BMG Poll in today's "I":

    Lab: 26% (NC)
    Con: 24% +2
    Ref: 23% -4
    LD 14% +2
    Grn 8% (NC)


    A poor poll for Reform but better for the Conservatives who, I think, have turned the corner though I still think the May locals won't be pleasant for Badenoch.

    I get the sense that Farage will either be found out or he'll do something stupid. His inappropriateness for the top job is Boris to the power of ten. Boris at least had a record with his time as mayor. Farage is just a wrecker and there's not a snowballs chance in Hell the majority of the public will risk him with their future
    I wish I shared your confidence. A country stupid enough to vote for Brexit is stupid enough to elect Farage as PM.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,995
    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    MaxPB said:

    I have to say I'm also pretty disappointed in the CMA opening a completely unnecessary investigation into transatlantic travel. It's this kind of anti-business action the government needs to crack down on. There is precisely zero chance that forcing IAG/AA to give up market share to Air France or Lufthansa will result in price drops for consumers, all it will lead to is money draining out of the country as a mostly UK owned airline loses out to a French/Dutch or German one instead.

    You don't see US or national regulators in Europe taking aim at their own companies like this, it's something that we British specialise in, tear down our success stories, let foreign competitors in, no benefit for consumers and negative outcomes for the economy.

    I completely agree but you can make the same argument for the magnificent 7 in the US. At some point anti-competitive behaviour switches from a good thing for UK plc or the US to a bad thing. I don't think transatlantic flights are there at the moment (although they have been in the past) but it is something to be aware of.

    The CMA should be focusing on the unbelievable abuse of Amazon's marketplace. But maybe that requires more courage.
    In this scenario there's just a complete misreading of the market. The Transatlantic route is at capacity because Heathrow and Gatwick are at capacity. Handing slots to foreign operators will just hand them market share without any chance of price reductions because the route is at capacity. They could reasonably increase their price relative to BA/AA and still sell over 90% of seats on the route because demand hugely outstrips supply for the routes in question.

    If the CMA wants real competition on the routes then it should lobby the government to increase capacity by building new runways, not setting out to damage a UK company in favour of foreign ones.
    Won't giving slots to foreign operators (of transatlantic routes) mean that a greater proportion of the Heathrow/Gatwick traffic will be transatlantic, and therefore there will be more capacity. I.e., there will be more seats to fill.

    So shouldn't it still have a (probably small) positive impact on prices?
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,816
    Roger said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    I presume we've covered the BMG Poll in today's "I":

    Lab: 26% (NC)
    Con: 24% +2
    Ref: 23% -4
    LD 14% +2
    Grn 8% (NC)


    A poor poll for Reform but better for the Conservatives who, I think, have turned the corner though I still think the May locals won't be pleasant for Badenoch.

    I get the sense that Farage will either be found out or he'll do something stupid. His inappropriateness for the top job is Boris to the power of ten. Boris at least had a record with his time as mayor. Farage is just a wrecker and there's not a snowballs chance in Hell the majority of the public will risk him with their future
    On current form (things can change of course) the result of the next GE will hang heavily on the strength of feeling about which party you certainly want to vote against; there is amazingly little actual affirmative support for anyone, except perhaps Reform, though many more will vote for whoever can beat them.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,764
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    I presume we've covered the BMG Poll in today's "I":

    Lab: 26% (NC)
    Con: 24% +2
    Ref: 23% -4
    LD 14% +2
    Grn 8% (NC)


    A poor poll for Reform but better for the Conservatives who, I think, have turned the corner though I still think the May locals won't be pleasant for Badenoch.

    REF splitting between Faragists and Lowists? :D
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,881
    Roger said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    I presume we've covered the BMG Poll in today's "I":

    Lab: 26% (NC)
    Con: 24% +2
    Ref: 23% -4
    LD 14% +2
    Grn 8% (NC)


    A poor poll for Reform but better for the Conservatives who, I think, have turned the corner though I still think the May locals won't be pleasant for Badenoch.

    I get the sense that Farage will either be found out or he'll do something stupid. His inappropriateness for the top job is Boris to the power of ten. Boris at least had a record with his time as mayor. Farage is just a wrecker and there's not a snowballs chance in Hell the majority of the public will risk him with their future
    I share that hope but can I remind you who gained office in the US recently

    Farage's speech yesterday was simply right wing to the core and it is why I will never vote Reform
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,995
    Phil said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Phil said:

    Hate to dredge up Letby again, but WTF?

    https://unherd.com/newsroom/were-the-blood-tests-in-lucy-letbys-conviction-flawed/

    Note that the wildly inaccurate measurements claimed by the lab for the quality control sample are very similar to the ones reported for Baby L.

    The jury were instructed that they could rely on their assessment of the use of insulin by Letby to poison baby L & F to inform their opinion of her guilt in all the other deaths or injuries. They were also instructed that they could rely on the lab’s assessment of the insulin / C-peptide in the blood samples by the judge in his summing up.

    If the insulin tests were as wildly inaccurate as claimed, then the entire prosecution falls apart I think? The cross-admissibility instruction makes the rest of the convictions unsafe.

    The problem with that article is that it is high on hyperbole, and light on data. "Multiple false readings" sounds terrible... But is it multiple false readings over tens of tests, or millions of tests? Without that information, it's hard to get a handle on whether it is likely that the insulin - c-peptide levels measured were likely the result of measurement error (and there were no murders), or not.
    A fair criticism. But if you send a bunch of tests to a lab & one of them comes back out by a factor of eight then it’s utility as a forensic test is surely fatally compromised?

    At the very least, the jury should have been accurately informed of what level of confidence they should place in the insulin / C-peptide tests. Instead the judge told them they could have absolute confidence in the reported values.
    Oh, I agree there are plenty of red flags with the Letby conviction.

    But the contention of the doctor in that piece is that the test in question has had multiple false readings. But over what time horizon? Also, were the two readings from the same batch (in which case they might have suffered the same contamination issue), or were they from two totally different batches?

    Because if the answers are (a) one in a million tests throws up a screwy result, and (b) they were sent at different times to the lab, then one's view of the deaths being murders is very different to if if's one-in-a-hundred and/or if they were part of the same analysis.

  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,816

    Omnium said:

    I've been reading (oh god I hear!) about the Royal Navy. A big history by NAM Roger - I think it was @Carnyx that was also so engaged.

    It really is very good.

    Anyway, one of the things that has recently struck me as interesting is how the government/admiralty fiddled the tendering process so that shipbuilding capacity would be maintained. It's oligarchical stuff but really fascinating.

    So anyway I have a question to you - have we lost the ability to find the minds needed for an oligarchy?

    (All the Lords and Ladies, Damsels (fruity M'Lord) and Dames are just a waste of space.)

    Nick Rogers is great. The Wooden Walls is the best book about the Georgian navy I have ever read.
    Oops... The Wooden World
    And it's Rodgers.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,155
    GIN1138 said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    I presume we've covered the BMG Poll in today's "I":

    Lab: 26% (NC)
    Con: 24% +2
    Ref: 23% -4
    LD 14% +2
    Grn 8% (NC)


    A poor poll for Reform but better for the Conservatives who, I think, have turned the corner though I still think the May locals won't be pleasant for Badenoch.

    REF splitting between Faragists and Lowists? :D
    One hopes that Farage is the taller.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,844
    Many DOGE fans in the comments are asking for proof of lies. I promised I would follow up. I'll start with a list of every lie and misleading statement I heard, then follow up with evidence in subsequent posts.

    Lies:
    - "nearly one BILLION dollars for a simple survey"
    - "we save $4B every day 7 days a week"
    - "we've been careful in the cuts, measure twice if not thrice!"
    - "everything is published on the DOGE website for maximum transparency"
    - "when you ask them which line they disagree with, they can't point to any!"
    - "only 0.15% of federal employees have been fired"
    - "Stacy Abrams NGO that didn't exist and then suddenly got $2B"
    - "If we don't do it, America's gonna go bankrupt"

    Misleading statements:
    - "an old mine that can only process 8000 retirements per month"
    - "legitimate recipients will receive more money"
    - "15 million people over the age of 120 marked as alive in SS database"
    - "40% of NIH grants go to the institution"
    - "there is $500B of fraud in government spending every year"

    https://x.com/electricfutures/status/1905860579119767680
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,022
    So, it begins.

    The UK must prepare for an exodus of US citizens seeking shelter.

    I am not joking.

    These academics are all experts on the nazi. They know what they are seeing.



    "Three prominent critics of President Donald Trump are leaving Yale’s faculty — and the United States — amid attacks on higher education to take up positions at the University of Toronto in fall 2025.

    Philosophy professor Jason Stanley announced this week that he will leave Yale, while history professors Timothy Snyder and Marci Shore, who are married, decided to leave around the November elections. The three professors will work at Toronto’s Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy."

    https://yaledailynews.com/blog/2025/03/27/three-prominent-yale-professors-depart-for-canadian-university-citing-trump-fears/
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,816
    Phil said:

    algarkirk said:

    Phil said:

    Hate to dredge up Letby again, but WTF?

    https://unherd.com/newsroom/were-the-blood-tests-in-lucy-letbys-conviction-flawed/

    Note that the wildly inaccurate measurements claimed by the lab for the quality control sample are very similar to the ones reported for Baby L.

    The jury were instructed that they could rely on their assessment of the use of insulin by Letby to poison baby L & F to inform their opinion of her guilt in all the other deaths or injuries. They were also instructed that they could rely on the lab’s assessment of the insulin / C-peptide in the blood samples by the judge in his summing up.

    If the insulin tests were as wildly inaccurate as claimed, then the entire prosecution falls apart I think? The cross-admissibility instruction makes the rest of the convictions unsafe.

    I shall wait and see, but three points: A discussion of the insulin cases needs to look at the totality of the evidence on those counts, which is summarised in para 29 and 30 of the Court of Appeal judgment.

    There is, despite suggestions otherwise, an extensive series of threads to the totality of the evidence of murders and attempts of which the insulin evidence is only one. In reality the Letby case has to succeed on every count separately because each case is different.

    A perfectly possible, and I think probable, explanation for why Letby accepted that the 2 babies had been poisoned by insulin is that she had unique knowledge of the fact and make a mistake in failing to deny it. This is especially so as her counsel had challenged in cross examination the reliability of the insulin findings. She slipt up.

    https://www.judiciary.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/R-v-Letby-Final-Judgment-20240702.pdf
    The insulin cases are the only ones with hard evidence - everything else is circumstantial isn’t it? Nobody ever saw Letby injure a baby - they only ever saw her in the vicinity of a child that was having problems & put 2 + 2 together to make four (or possibly 17, depending on whether Letby is innocent or not!) The failure to install cameras in the ward when suspicions were originally raised does seem to be an egregious one in retrospect - management of the hospital have a lot to answer for, regardless of whether Letby is guilty or innocent.

    An equally plausible explanation for the Letby’s acceptance of insulin poisoning is simply that the prosecutor browbeat her into an admission that the test results must mean that the babies had been poisoned with insulin: any ordinary person faced with the test results as presented to the court would conclude the same thing. The fact that she should have refused to answer a question where she had no relevant expertise whatsoever but was cornered into doing so by the prosecution doesn’t make her guilty.
    Not quite. The apparent admission ('I killed') is more than circumstantial, as are some other threads. And it is worth noting the appeal on the second trial and how thin were the grounds in that appeal.

    As to accepting that the children were poisoned in cross examination, the damning aspect is this: Letby and her lawyers will have spent weeks going through the evidence. Her counsel challenged the reliability of the insulin evidence (see CA judgment para 29 and 30) in other words the defence case from Myers KC point of view was that there was doubt as to whether they were poisoned. Letby would of course have known that this was the defence line - she wasn't thick.

    Whatever happened in re-examination, when Myers could have reopened that matter to get her to retract the concession, he and she didn't try or didn't succeed. Letby slipped in a bit of truth by mistake, under pressure. She tried to poison them.

    Myers could have called expert evidence to ameliorate the insulin evidence. And didn't. Draw your own conclusions.

    In trials, the devil is in the detail.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,155
    edited March 29
    On US politics, I'm having a look at a USA podcast called The NatCon Squad, to see what they are saying - "Where Common Sense and Common Good meet". It's run by the Edmund Burke foundation, of which James Orr is the UK Chairman.

    Here is one following on from the JD Vance Munich speech.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ur9FzZrhqc0

    AFAICS they are more or less straight down the line, and have celebrated slapping Europe in the face, without factchecking his speech.

    Here's the most recent about "The Houthis Strike Group Chat":
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9HL9CP4yaPY&list=PLbZpjtSKtltEtMVVGnggWkYY42LNT3JBH
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,438

    So, it begins.

    The UK must prepare for an exodus of US citizens seeking shelter.

    I am not joking.

    These academics are all experts on the nazi. They know what they are seeing.



    "Three prominent critics of President Donald Trump are leaving Yale’s faculty — and the United States — amid attacks on higher education to take up positions at the University of Toronto in fall 2025.

    Philosophy professor Jason Stanley announced this week that he will leave Yale, while history professors Timothy Snyder and Marci Shore, who are married, decided to leave around the November elections. The three professors will work at Toronto’s Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy."

    https://yaledailynews.com/blog/2025/03/27/three-prominent-yale-professors-depart-for-canadian-university-citing-trump-fears/

    Perhaps the NHS will also need extra funding for mental health services for people affected by TDS.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,160

    So, it begins.

    The UK must prepare for an exodus of US citizens seeking shelter.

    I am not joking.

    These academics are all experts on the nazi. They know what they are seeing.



    "Three prominent critics of President Donald Trump are leaving Yale’s faculty — and the United States — amid attacks on higher education to take up positions at the University of Toronto in fall 2025.

    Philosophy professor Jason Stanley announced this week that he will leave Yale, while history professors Timothy Snyder and Marci Shore, who are married, decided to leave around the November elections. The three professors will work at Toronto’s Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy."

    https://yaledailynews.com/blog/2025/03/27/three-prominent-yale-professors-depart-for-canadian-university-citing-trump-fears/

    Perhaps the NHS will also need extra funding for mental health services for people affected by TDS.
    I'm sure they'll see you all right, ducks.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,428
    Nigelb said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Just had my water bill.

    Huge increase.

    I reckon 17%.

    WTF?

    25% increase here.
    Mine has increased from £846 to £1,164 38%
    Thames Water
    I'm thinking of getting a meter.
    I'm thinking of renationalisation without compensation....
    Just let them go bust. That's how it's meant to operate.
    Yes - but I still want the water and sewerage to work!
    It would. Someone would get the franchise with none of the debt of Thames Water.
    And they'd rip us off all over again.

    I'd nationalise the assets and award private sector management contracts, renewable ever five years if performance is at least satisfactory.
    That way there's no way to gear up the assets all over again, to siphon off cash.
    Not if the regulator did its job.

    There is, as far as I know, no official gap between working for the regulator and joining a water company.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,844

    So, it begins.

    The UK must prepare for an exodus of US citizens seeking shelter.

    I am not joking.

    These academics are all experts on the nazi. They know what they are seeing.



    "Three prominent critics of President Donald Trump are leaving Yale’s faculty — and the United States — amid attacks on higher education to take up positions at the University of Toronto in fall 2025.

    Philosophy professor Jason Stanley announced this week that he will leave Yale, while history professors Timothy Snyder and Marci Shore, who are married, decided to leave around the November elections. The three professors will work at Toronto’s Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy."

    https://yaledailynews.com/blog/2025/03/27/three-prominent-yale-professors-depart-for-canadian-university-citing-trump-fears/

    Perhaps the NHS will also need extra funding for mental health services for people affected by TDS.
    You’re not quite that bad, william, though we do have concerns.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,816

    So, it begins.

    The UK must prepare for an exodus of US citizens seeking shelter.

    I am not joking.

    These academics are all experts on the nazi. They know what they are seeing.



    "Three prominent critics of President Donald Trump are leaving Yale’s faculty — and the United States — amid attacks on higher education to take up positions at the University of Toronto in fall 2025.

    Philosophy professor Jason Stanley announced this week that he will leave Yale, while history professors Timothy Snyder and Marci Shore, who are married, decided to leave around the November elections. The three professors will work at Toronto’s Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy."

    https://yaledailynews.com/blog/2025/03/27/three-prominent-yale-professors-depart-for-canadian-university-citing-trump-fears/

    Patriotic Americans should feel abject shame and abject horror. Don't know about the others but for the USA to lose Snyder feels very very 1930s. I don't suppose any modern scholar should be compared with Einstein in 1932 but still......
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,995
    Nigelb said:

    Thoughts and prayers.

    Rep. Victoria Spartz's second and last town hall of this weekend -- this one in Muncie, Indiana -- is already starting off with boos and yelling from the 160 person audience.

    When she took the mic, the entire audience booed her.

    https://x.com/DaniellaMicaela/status/1906000112410566735

    That's what happens if you quit the RNC.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,155
    edited March 29

    So, it begins.

    The UK must prepare for an exodus of US citizens seeking shelter.

    I am not joking.

    These academics are all experts on the nazi. They know what they are seeing.



    "Three prominent critics of President Donald Trump are leaving Yale’s faculty — and the United States — amid attacks on higher education to take up positions at the University of Toronto in fall 2025.

    Philosophy professor Jason Stanley announced this week that he will leave Yale, while history professors Timothy Snyder and Marci Shore, who are married, decided to leave around the November elections. The three professors will work at Toronto’s Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy."

    https://yaledailynews.com/blog/2025/03/27/three-prominent-yale-professors-depart-for-canadian-university-citing-trump-fears/

    Rory the Tory is Brady-Johnson Professor of the Practice of Grand Strategy at Yale University's Jackson School of Global Affairs.

    I wonder if he will be leaving. He needs to do some relevant lectures about the onset of totalitarian Government, using the progress of the Chump regime as a case study. Maga will pop like a parade of weasels.

    The Brady-Johnson Program in Grand Strategy offers a year-long course (“Studies in Grand Strategy”) to Yale undergraduates and graduate students that addresses large-scale, long-term strategic challenges of statecraft, politics, and social change. The course encourages understanding of historical and contemporary global and domestic challenges, while developing students’ capacity for strategic thinking and effective leadership in a variety of fields.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,413
    @kateferguson4
    EXCL: Could Idris Elba take on his toughest role yet and become London Mayor?

    Labour insiders want the Luther star to be their candidate for City Hall when Sadiq Khan leaves.

    The Hollywood star, 52, is a vocal anti knife crime campaigner.

    https://x.com/kateferguson4/status/1906072903403086068
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,844
    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Thoughts and prayers.

    Rep. Victoria Spartz's second and last town hall of this weekend -- this one in Muncie, Indiana -- is already starting off with boos and yelling from the 160 person audience.

    When she took the mic, the entire audience booed her.

    https://x.com/DaniellaMicaela/status/1906000112410566735

    That's what happens if you quit the RNC.
    “… since the 119th Congress began, she has been listed as a member of the Republican Conference and has been attending Conference events...”
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,558
    MattW said:

    So, it begins.

    The UK must prepare for an exodus of US citizens seeking shelter.

    I am not joking.

    These academics are all experts on the nazi. They know what they are seeing.



    "Three prominent critics of President Donald Trump are leaving Yale’s faculty — and the United States — amid attacks on higher education to take up positions at the University of Toronto in fall 2025.

    Philosophy professor Jason Stanley announced this week that he will leave Yale, while history professors Timothy Snyder and Marci Shore, who are married, decided to leave around the November elections. The three professors will work at Toronto’s Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy."

    https://yaledailynews.com/blog/2025/03/27/three-prominent-yale-professors-depart-for-canadian-university-citing-trump-fears/

    Rory the Tory is Brady-Johnson Professor of the Practice of Grand Strategy at Yale University's Jackson School of Global Affairs.

    I wonder if he will be leaving. He needs to do some relevant lectures about the onset of totalitarian Government, using the progress of the Chump regime as a case study. Maga will pop like a parade of weasels.

    The Brady-Johnson Program in Grand Strategy offers a year-long course (“Studies in Grand Strategy”) to Yale undergraduates and graduate students that addresses large-scale, long-term strategic challenges of statecraft, politics, and social change. The course encourages understanding of historical and contemporary global and domestic challenges, while developing students’ capacity for strategic thinking and effective leadership in a variety of fields.
    We (.ac.uk sci/eng) have seen a distinct uptick in US academics applying for posts of late. Sadly, being economically in the doldrums, we're not picking many up.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,995
    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Thoughts and prayers.

    Rep. Victoria Spartz's second and last town hall of this weekend -- this one in Muncie, Indiana -- is already starting off with boos and yelling from the 160 person audience.

    When she took the mic, the entire audience booed her.

    https://x.com/DaniellaMicaela/status/1906000112410566735

    That's what happens if you quit the RNC.
    “… since the 119th Congress began, she has been listed as a member of the Republican Conference and has been attending Conference events...”
    Ah, I thought she remained a Republican, but had quit the RNC.

    My apologies.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,933
    edited March 29
    Scott_xP said:

    @kateferguson4
    EXCL: Could Idris Elba take on his toughest role yet and become London Mayor?

    Labour insiders want the Luther star to be their candidate for City Hall when Sadiq Khan leaves.

    The Hollywood star, 52, is a vocal anti knife crime campaigner.

    https://x.com/kateferguson4/status/1906072903403086068

    Love Idris . The early seasons of Luther were superb and of course there’s the Wire when I had no idea he was a Brit actor . It would certainly be an interesting choice for a Labour candidate .
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,383
    nico67 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @kateferguson4
    EXCL: Could Idris Elba take on his toughest role yet and become London Mayor?

    Labour insiders want the Luther star to be their candidate for City Hall when Sadiq Khan leaves.

    The Hollywood star, 52, is a vocal anti knife crime campaigner.

    https://x.com/kateferguson4/status/1906072903403086068

    Love Idris . The early seasons of Luther were superb and of course there’s the Wire when I had no idea he was a Brit actor . It would certainly be an interesting choice for a Labour candidate .
    Too many Sky adverts :lol:
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,581
    Pulpstar said:


    They have made an investment and are entitled to a return on that.

    What fresh hell is this ?!?
    I believe in property rights and the rule of law.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,933

    nico67 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @kateferguson4
    EXCL: Could Idris Elba take on his toughest role yet and become London Mayor?

    Labour insiders want the Luther star to be their candidate for City Hall when Sadiq Khan leaves.

    The Hollywood star, 52, is a vocal anti knife crime campaigner.

    https://x.com/kateferguson4/status/1906072903403086068

    Love Idris . The early seasons of Luther were superb and of course there’s the Wire when I had no idea he was a Brit actor . It would certainly be an interesting choice for a Labour candidate .
    Too many Sky adverts :lol:
    He’d certainly bring some star quality to the role and the best city in the world could do a lot worse than sexy Idris !
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,537
    Nigelb said:

    Thoughts and prayers.

    Rep. Victoria Spartz's second and last town hall of this weekend -- this one in Muncie, Indiana -- is already starting off with boos and yelling from the 160 person audience.

    When she took the mic, the entire audience booed her.

    https://x.com/DaniellaMicaela/status/1906000112410566735

    In all of this there may well be Dem place people (though names and addresses of all for this town hall), but if the keyboard warriors believe that, where are the Republican audiences members balancing things out?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,333
    algarkirk said:

    Phil said:

    algarkirk said:

    Phil said:

    Hate to dredge up Letby again, but WTF?

    https://unherd.com/newsroom/were-the-blood-tests-in-lucy-letbys-conviction-flawed/

    Note that the wildly inaccurate measurements claimed by the lab for the quality control sample are very similar to the ones reported for Baby L.

    The jury were instructed that they could rely on their assessment of the use of insulin by Letby to poison baby L & F to inform their opinion of her guilt in all the other deaths or injuries. They were also instructed that they could rely on the lab’s assessment of the insulin / C-peptide in the blood samples by the judge in his summing up.

    If the insulin tests were as wildly inaccurate as claimed, then the entire prosecution falls apart I think? The cross-admissibility instruction makes the rest of the convictions unsafe.

    I shall wait and see, but three points: A discussion of the insulin cases needs to look at the totality of the evidence on those counts, which is summarised in para 29 and 30 of the Court of Appeal judgment.

    There is, despite suggestions otherwise, an extensive series of threads to the totality of the evidence of murders and attempts of which the insulin evidence is only one. In reality the Letby case has to succeed on every count separately because each case is different.

    A perfectly possible, and I think probable, explanation for why Letby accepted that the 2 babies had been poisoned by insulin is that she had unique knowledge of the fact and make a mistake in failing to deny it. This is especially so as her counsel had challenged in cross examination the reliability of the insulin findings. She slipt up.

    https://www.judiciary.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/R-v-Letby-Final-Judgment-20240702.pdf
    The insulin cases are the only ones with hard evidence - everything else is circumstantial isn’t it? Nobody ever saw Letby injure a baby - they only ever saw her in the vicinity of a child that was having problems & put 2 + 2 together to make four (or possibly 17, depending on whether Letby is innocent or not!) The failure to install cameras in the ward when suspicions were originally raised does seem to be an egregious one in retrospect - management of the hospital have a lot to answer for, regardless of whether Letby is guilty or innocent.

    An equally plausible explanation for the Letby’s acceptance of insulin poisoning is simply that the prosecutor browbeat her into an admission that the test results must mean that the babies had been poisoned with insulin: any ordinary person faced with the test results as presented to the court would conclude the same thing. The fact that she should have refused to answer a question where she had no relevant expertise whatsoever but was cornered into doing so by the prosecution doesn’t make her guilty.
    Not quite. The apparent admission ('I killed') is more than circumstantial, as are some other threads. And it is worth noting the appeal on the second trial and how thin were the grounds in that appeal.

    As to accepting that the children were poisoned in cross examination, the damning aspect is this: Letby and her lawyers will have spent weeks going through the evidence. Her counsel challenged the reliability of the insulin evidence (see CA judgment para 29 and 30) in other words the defence case from Myers KC point of view was that there was doubt as to whether they were poisoned. Letby would of course have known that this was the defence line - she wasn't thick.

    Whatever happened in re-examination, when Myers could have reopened that matter to get her to retract the concession, he and she didn't try or didn't succeed. Letby slipped in a bit of truth by mistake, under pressure. She tried to poison them.

    Myers could have called expert evidence to ameliorate the insulin evidence. And didn't. Draw your own conclusions.

    In trials, the devil is in the detail.
    Indeed. The trial took over 10 months. It is probably the longest murder trial in the country's history. There was no rush to judgement. There was a lot of detail.
  • TresTres Posts: 2,775
    Pro_Rata said:

    Nigelb said:

    Thoughts and prayers.

    Rep. Victoria Spartz's second and last town hall of this weekend -- this one in Muncie, Indiana -- is already starting off with boos and yelling from the 160 person audience.

    When she took the mic, the entire audience booed her.

    https://x.com/DaniellaMicaela/status/1906000112410566735

    In all of this there may well be Dem place people (though names and addresses of all for this town hall), but if the keyboard warriors believe that, where are the Republican audiences members balancing things out?
    Presumably the Dems are booing her because she is GOP, and the Reps are booing her because she is Ukrainian.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,333
    Scott_xP said:

    @kateferguson4
    EXCL: Could Idris Elba take on his toughest role yet and become London Mayor?

    Labour insiders want the Luther star to be their candidate for City Hall when Sadiq Khan leaves.

    The Hollywood star, 52, is a vocal anti knife crime campaigner.

    https://x.com/kateferguson4/status/1906072903403086068

    I bet Floella Benjamin would win if the LibDems could get her to stand.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,428

    Pulpstar said:


    They have made an investment and are entitled to a return on that.

    What fresh hell is this ?!?
    I believe in property rights and the rule of law.
    I hope you would also agree that they made an investment and should not expect a Government bail out when that investment goes south. Buyer beware.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,333
    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Dear me - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ce989vygkz7o.

    I expect it was a "one-off" incident for the victim too. How many such offences must there be before action is taken?

    That is just astounding. WTF were they thinking?
    Rape is presumably okay, if the victim is not a patient.

    Would the same principle apply to murder?
    A friend is a GP in Essex. Another GP he knew was done for attempted murder of his wife. He was not struck off.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,844
    nico67 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @kateferguson4
    EXCL: Could Idris Elba take on his toughest role yet and become London Mayor?

    Labour insiders want the Luther star to be their candidate for City Hall when Sadiq Khan leaves.

    The Hollywood star, 52, is a vocal anti knife crime campaigner.

    https://x.com/kateferguson4/status/1906072903403086068

    Love Idris . The early seasons of Luther were superb and of course there’s the Wire when I had no idea he was a Brit actor . It would certainly be an interesting choice for a Labour candidate .
    Stringer Bell…
    Omar…
    Lester Freamon…

    Just exceptional TV.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,473
    edited March 29
    Comments from @ydoethur and others are invited re: Ms. Spielman. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/crknkkx21gvo
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,321
    algarkirk said:

    I saw Mr Beer today

    That's genuinely his name. The first time I knocked on his door was a very hot summer day. I told him that I got thirsty every time I delivered his mail; he immediately grabbed a bottle of Ramsbury Gold from his beer fridge in the porch and told me to quench my thirst with it when I'd finished work

    He also gave me beer for Christmas. So when I started brewing beer, I wanted Mr Beer's endorsement. I gave him a bottle a couple of weeks back, and saw him for the first time since this afternoon

    He loved the beer I'd given him, so I gave him a bottle of our latest batch. He gave me a box of Camden Hells lager in return, and said my beer was much better

    I think I have a thumbs-up from Mr Beer

    With only a little editing this would make vol 48 of the Mr Men series of books I read to my four year old grandson.

    Perhaps there should be a grown ups version? Mr Beer, Mr Flaneur, Mr Leon, Mr Cokehead, Mr Alco, Mr Lech, Mr Toad, Mr Liar, Mr Implacable, Mr Gay, Mr Vance, Mr Benefits, Mr Rizz and so on.
    That sounds like Leon's version of Mr. Benn...
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,333
    Phil said:

    algarkirk said:

    Phil said:

    Hate to dredge up Letby again, but WTF?

    https://unherd.com/newsroom/were-the-blood-tests-in-lucy-letbys-conviction-flawed/

    Note that the wildly inaccurate measurements claimed by the lab for the quality control sample are very similar to the ones reported for Baby L.

    The jury were instructed that they could rely on their assessment of the use of insulin by Letby to poison baby L & F to inform their opinion of her guilt in all the other deaths or injuries. They were also instructed that they could rely on the lab’s assessment of the insulin / C-peptide in the blood samples by the judge in his summing up.

    If the insulin tests were as wildly inaccurate as claimed, then the entire prosecution falls apart I think? The cross-admissibility instruction makes the rest of the convictions unsafe.

    I shall wait and see, but three points: A discussion of the insulin cases needs to look at the totality of the evidence on those counts, which is summarised in para 29 and 30 of the Court of Appeal judgment.

    There is, despite suggestions otherwise, an extensive series of threads to the totality of the evidence of murders and attempts of which the insulin evidence is only one. In reality the Letby case has to succeed on every count separately because each case is different.

    A perfectly possible, and I think probable, explanation for why Letby accepted that the 2 babies had been poisoned by insulin is that she had unique knowledge of the fact and make a mistake in failing to deny it. This is especially so as her counsel had challenged in cross examination the reliability of the insulin findings. She slipt up.

    https://www.judiciary.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/R-v-Letby-Final-Judgment-20240702.pdf
    The insulin cases are the only ones with hard evidence - everything else is circumstantial isn’t it? Nobody ever saw Letby injure a baby - they only ever saw her in the vicinity of a child that was having problems & put 2 + 2 together to make four (or possibly 17, depending on whether Letby is innocent or not!) The failure to install cameras in the ward when suspicions were originally raised does seem to be an egregious one in retrospect - management of the hospital have a lot to answer for, regardless of whether Letby is guilty or innocent.

    An equally plausible explanation for the Letby’s acceptance of insulin poisoning is simply that the prosecutor browbeat her into an admission that the test results must mean that the babies had been poisoned with insulin: any ordinary person faced with the test results as presented to the court would conclude the same thing. The fact that she should have refused to answer a question where she had no relevant expertise whatsoever but was cornered into doing so by the prosecution doesn’t make her guilty.
    Many cases are settled on circumstantial evidence.

    Nobody ever saw Letby injure a baby, but... well, let me quote Wikipedia's write-up: "The mother of Baby E described hearing her infant scream, and walking in to find him with blood around his mouth and Letby in the room. She testified that Letby had attributed the blood to a nasogastric tube, saying "trust me, I'm a nurse."[62] The baby's condition soon worsened and he died a few hours later.[62]"

    As well as the one you mentioned: "A consultant testified that, in February 2016, he had walked in on Letby standing over a desaturating infant and failing to intervene. He said that Letby had responded to his questions by telling him that the infant had only just started declining. The infant in question survived the collapse.[3]: 22:55 "
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,844
    .

    Comments from @ydoethur and others are invited. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/crknkkx21gvo

    There’s taking the piss … and then there’s taking the fucking piss.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,844
    The video accompanying this… really ??

    Usha and I are on our way home from an incredible journey to Greenland. We can't wait to come back again soon.

    America stands with Greenland!

    https://x.com/JDVance/status/1905703328912486723
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,581

    I saw Mr Beer today

    That's genuinely his name. The first time I knocked on his door was a very hot summer day. I told him that I got thirsty every time I delivered his mail; he immediately grabbed a bottle of Ramsbury Gold from his beer fridge in the porch and told me to quench my thirst with it when I'd finished work

    He also gave me beer for Christmas. So when I started brewing beer, I wanted Mr Beer's endorsement. I gave him a bottle a couple of weeks back, and saw him for the first time since this afternoon

    He loved the beer I'd given him, so I gave him a bottle of our latest batch. He gave me a box of Camden Hells lager in return, and said my beer was much better

    I think I have a thumbs-up from Mr Beer

    Please tell me his parents named him Rupert 😜
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,933
    Nigelb said:

    The video accompanying this… really ??

    Usha and I are on our way home from an incredible journey to Greenland. We can't wait to come back again soon.

    America stands with Greenland!

    https://x.com/JDVance/status/1905703328912486723

    Good grief ! It’s like the Twilight Zone .
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,581

    Pulpstar said:


    They have made an investment and are entitled to a return on that.

    What fresh hell is this ?!?
    I believe in property rights and the rule of law.
    I hope you would also agree that they made an investment and should not expect a Government bail out when that investment goes south. Buyer beware.
    I do. But this was a response to @MaxPB’s proposal to ban dividends on all utility investments
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,928
    Dear Deidre and Popbitch are behind paywalls now. I hate the 2020s

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/dear-deidre/
    https://popbitch.com/
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,413
    Nigelb said:

    The video accompanying this… really ??

    Usha and I are on our way home from an incredible journey to Greenland. We can't wait to come back again soon.

    America stands with Greenland!

    https://x.com/JDVance/status/1905703328912486723

    I used my pic for the day, but this is very good

    https://x.com/amduffany/status/1906073822111134015
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,844

    I saw Mr Beer today

    That's genuinely his name. The first time I knocked on his door was a very hot summer day. I told him that I got thirsty every time I delivered his mail; he immediately grabbed a bottle of Ramsbury Gold from his beer fridge in the porch and told me to quench my thirst with it when I'd finished work

    He also gave me beer for Christmas. So when I started brewing beer, I wanted Mr Beer's endorsement. I gave him a bottle a couple of weeks back, and saw him for the first time since this afternoon

    He loved the beer I'd given him, so I gave him a bottle of our latest batch. He gave me a box of Camden Hells lager in return, and said my beer was much better

    I think I have a thumbs-up from Mr Beer

    Please tell me his parents named him Rupert 😜
    Luke Warm…
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,413
    Nigelb said:

    I saw Mr Beer today

    That's genuinely his name. The first time I knocked on his door was a very hot summer day. I told him that I got thirsty every time I delivered his mail; he immediately grabbed a bottle of Ramsbury Gold from his beer fridge in the porch and told me to quench my thirst with it when I'd finished work

    He also gave me beer for Christmas. So when I started brewing beer, I wanted Mr Beer's endorsement. I gave him a bottle a couple of weeks back, and saw him for the first time since this afternoon

    He loved the beer I'd given him, so I gave him a bottle of our latest batch. He gave me a box of Camden Hells lager in return, and said my beer was much better

    I think I have a thumbs-up from Mr Beer

    Please tell me his parents named him Rupert 😜
    Luke Warm…
    According to James Burke (Connections) British beer ferments in a different way than German beer, and specifically at a different temperature. Warmer...
  • CleitophonCleitophon Posts: 576
    edited March 29
    Scott_xP said:

    Nigelb said:

    I saw Mr Beer today

    That's genuinely his name. The first time I knocked on his door was a very hot summer day. I told him that I got thirsty every time I delivered his mail; he immediately grabbed a bottle of Ramsbury Gold from his beer fridge in the porch and told me to quench my thirst with it when I'd finished work

    He also gave me beer for Christmas. So when I started brewing beer, I wanted Mr Beer's endorsement. I gave him a bottle a couple of weeks back, and saw him for the first time since this afternoon

    He loved the beer I'd given him, so I gave him a bottle of our latest batch. He gave me a box of Camden Hells lager in return, and said my beer was much better

    I think I have a thumbs-up from Mr Beer

    Please tell me his parents named him Rupert 😜
    Luke Warm…
    According to James Burke (Connections) British beer ferments in a different way than German beer, and specifically at a different temperature. Warmer...
    That is correct. Pilsner ferments at a lower temp than ales. Slower too.
  • CleitophonCleitophon Posts: 576
    I wonder if rejoining the single market becomes an economic necessity when Trump's "liberation day" of tarrifs kick off on the second. I suspect that Starmer is finding out there are no exceptions no matter how deep your nose goes. At some point he will have to pull the ejector seat cord on the red lines to keep the economy floating.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,438

    I wonder if rejoining the single market becomes an economic necessity when Trump's "liberation day" of tarrifs kick off on the second. I suspect that Starmer is finding out there are no exceptions no matter how deep your nose goes. At some point he will have to pull the ejector seat cord on the red lines to keep the economy floating.

    What's the connection? Trump's tariffs don't apply to trade between third countries.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,651

    I wonder if rejoining the single market becomes an economic necessity when Trump's "liberation day" of tarrifs kick off on the second. I suspect that Starmer is finding out there are no exceptions no matter how deep your nose goes. At some point he will have to pull the ejector seat cord on the red lines to keep the economy floating.

    What's the connection? Trump's tariffs don't apply to trade between third countries.
    Erm…yes…that’s the point. You really don’t see the connection?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,112
    Anyone know what the Sunday Times frontpage about the police storming a Quakers house is all about?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,794
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    MaxPB said:

    I have to say I'm also pretty disappointed in the CMA opening a completely unnecessary investigation into transatlantic travel. It's this kind of anti-business action the government needs to crack down on. There is precisely zero chance that forcing IAG/AA to give up market share to Air France or Lufthansa will result in price drops for consumers, all it will lead to is money draining out of the country as a mostly UK owned airline loses out to a French/Dutch or German one instead.

    You don't see US or national regulators in Europe taking aim at their own companies like this, it's something that we British specialise in, tear down our success stories, let foreign competitors in, no benefit for consumers and negative outcomes for the economy.

    I completely agree but you can make the same argument for the magnificent 7 in the US. At some point anti-competitive behaviour switches from a good thing for UK plc or the US to a bad thing. I don't think transatlantic flights are there at the moment (although they have been in the past) but it is something to be aware of.

    The CMA should be focusing on the unbelievable abuse of Amazon's marketplace. But maybe that requires more courage.
    In this scenario there's just a complete misreading of the market. The Transatlantic route is at capacity because Heathrow and Gatwick are at capacity. Handing slots to foreign operators will just hand them market share without any chance of price reductions because the route is at capacity. They could reasonably increase their price relative to BA/AA and still sell over 90% of seats on the route because demand hugely outstrips supply for the routes in question.

    If the CMA wants real competition on the routes then it should lobby the government to increase capacity by building new runways, not setting out to damage a UK company in favour of foreign ones.
    Won't giving slots to foreign operators (of transatlantic routes) mean that a greater proportion of the Heathrow/Gatwick traffic will be transatlantic, and therefore there will be more capacity. I.e., there will be more seats to fill.

    So shouldn't it still have a (probably small) positive impact on prices?
    No because the regulator is saying they'll take effectively limit BA/AA market share on the Transatlantic routes in question so they aren't necessarily creating more capacity, just reallocating it from a British/American partnership to European or Arab carriers.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,361
    Is the Reform slogan really "Reform will fix it" (for you, and you and you and you)?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,438
    edited March 29
    DougSeal said:

    I wonder if rejoining the single market becomes an economic necessity when Trump's "liberation day" of tarrifs kick off on the second. I suspect that Starmer is finding out there are no exceptions no matter how deep your nose goes. At some point he will have to pull the ejector seat cord on the red lines to keep the economy floating.

    What's the connection? Trump's tariffs don't apply to trade between third countries.
    Erm…yes…that’s the point. You really don’t see the connection?
    EU-UK trade is tariff free and will remain so regardless of what Trump does. To the extent that Trump's tariffs will promote trade between other western countries, it makes joining the single market less relevant.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,438

    Is the Reform slogan really "Reform will fix it" (for you, and you and you and you)?

    Hiding in plain sight?
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,361

    Is the Reform slogan really "Reform will fix it" (for you, and you and you and you)?

    Hiding in plain sight?
    It's unbelievable.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,794

    Pulpstar said:


    They have made an investment and are entitled to a return on that.

    What fresh hell is this ?!?
    I believe in property rights and the rule of law.
    I'm sorry, someone who didn't do their due diligence properly and fucked up doesn't deserve a government bailout of any kind. They fucked up, they have to live with that poor decision, I also think it is a net benefit because these rent seekers will be put off investing in existing low risk UK infrastructure. I see in the same bracket as a buy to let landlord, they're taking precisely zero risk when they "invest" their money into existing property. The government should increase that risk factor to an appropriate level for the expected 4-5% annual ROI or reduce the ROI to more like 0-1% if the risk level is impossible to increase. Fundamentally money being put into something that already exists does nothing for the economy. It's not creating any additional demand for new infrastructure and someone already owned it before anyway so you're really just helping the previous owner cash out.

    For something intangible like shares there is no real downside and companies have a lot of power over shareholders to influence dividend payouts and yields as well as capital investment plans because the shareholders are sufficiently diversified and have conflicting agendas. When those funds/individuals own the infrastructure or housing directly it's a recipe for neglect and rent seeking. There is simply no oversight because the board is in no way independent and and the non-diversified share ownership means that the investors can simply vote themselves unsustainable dividends paid for by increasing leverage, as we've seen across the water industry (and I would venture the housing sector too).

    I don't know what the solution is in the grand scheme, yet I do know that it starts with bankrupting the water industry and nationalising it as well as barring "investment" from any company that sucked the blood from the industry for a minimum of 25 years and barring any directors of senior level management from being involved with UK industry for the same period. These companies and those managers bring zero value to the UK economy and are in fact a huge negative, we should act in our own interest and tell them quite literally to get fucked.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,256

    Is the Reform slogan really "Reform will fix it" (for you, and you and you and you)?

    Yes then you get a badge 'Nige fixed it for you'

    How's about that then?'
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,558
    MaxPB said:

    Pulpstar said:


    They have made an investment and are entitled to a return on that.

    What fresh hell is this ?!?
    I believe in property rights and the rule of law.
    I'm sorry, someone who didn't do their due diligence properly and fucked up doesn't deserve a government bailout of any kind. They fucked up, they have to live with that poor decision, I also think it is a net benefit because these rent seekers will be put off investing in existing low risk UK infrastructure. I see in the same bracket as a buy to let landlord, they're taking precisely zero risk when they "invest" their money into existing property. The government should increase that risk factor to an appropriate level for the expected 4-5% annual ROI or reduce the ROI to more like 0-1% if the risk level is impossible to increase. Fundamentally money being put into something that already exists does nothing for the economy. It's not creating any additional demand for new infrastructure and someone already owned it before anyway so you're really just helping the previous owner cash out.

    For something intangible like shares there is no real downside and companies have a lot of power over shareholders to influence dividend payouts and yields as well as capital investment plans because the shareholders are sufficiently diversified and have conflicting agendas. When those funds/individuals own the infrastructure or housing directly it's a recipe for neglect and rent seeking. There is simply no oversight because the board is in no way independent and and the non-diversified share ownership means that the investors can simply vote themselves unsustainable dividends paid for by increasing leverage, as we've seen across the water industry (and I would venture the housing sector too).

    I don't know what the solution is in the grand scheme, yet I do know that it starts with bankrupting the water industry and nationalising it as well as barring "investment" from any company that sucked the blood from the industry for a minimum of 25 years and barring any directors of senior level management from being involved with UK industry for the same period. These companies and those managers bring zero value to the UK economy and are in fact a huge negative, we should act in our own interest and tell them quite literally to get fucked.
    Apart from all that though, it's going well? Zero value might be expensive. But at least it's not negative value and expensive.

    Silver linings.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,517
    Andy_JS said:

    Anyone know what the Sunday Times frontpage about the police storming a Quakers house is all about?

    "meeting house" i.e church. It had been booked by a protest group planning some kind of disruption police deemed illegal. So it's not like they barged into a service...
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,795
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/crldrrxz33ro

    Does anyone have an idea with what is really going on? The whole story spends a lot of time not saying what happened.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,558
    Nigelb said:

    The video accompanying this… really ??

    Usha and I are on our way home from an incredible journey to Greenland. We can't wait to come back again soon.

    America stands with Greenland!

    https://x.com/JDVance/status/1905703328912486723

    Did you count how many Pastors were involved? Did you? Just regular ol' pastors.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,022

    Bill Kristol
    @BillKristol
    ·
    2m
    MAGA Congresswoman in Trump's America: "You violated the law, you don't get due process.”

    Queen of Hearts in Alice in Wonderland: “Sentence first—verdict afterward.”
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,517

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/crldrrxz33ro

    Does anyone have an idea with what is really going on? The whole story spends a lot of time not saying what happened.

    Seems unpaywalled, at least for me:

    https://www.ft.com/content/8fc9561d-c145-4542-a32a-1707573c012b
  • ScarpiaScarpia Posts: 76

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/crldrrxz33ro

    Does anyone have an idea with what is really going on? The whole story spends a lot of time not saying what happened.

    Does anyone really care?
  • ScarpiaScarpia Posts: 76

    Scott_xP said:

    Nigelb said:

    I saw Mr Beer today

    That's genuinely his name. The first time I knocked on his door was a very hot summer day. I told him that I got thirsty every time I delivered his mail; he immediately grabbed a bottle of Ramsbury Gold from his beer fridge in the porch and told me to quench my thirst with it when I'd finished work

    He also gave me beer for Christmas. So when I started brewing beer, I wanted Mr Beer's endorsement. I gave him a bottle a couple of weeks back, and saw him for the first time since this afternoon

    He loved the beer I'd given him, so I gave him a bottle of our latest batch. He gave me a box of Camden Hells lager in return, and said my beer was much better

    I think I have a thumbs-up from Mr Beer

    Please tell me his parents named him Rupert 😜
    Luke Warm…
    According to James Burke (Connections) British beer ferments in a different way than German beer, and specifically at a different temperature. Warmer...
    That is correct. Pilsner ferments at a lower temp than ales. Slower too.
    Different yeast action as well I think (Brewologists please explain)
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,727
    edited March 29
    Nigelb said:

    Lebensraum ??

    A German group, Lebensraum Vorpommern, has filed a further legal challenge against Poland's plans to construct a deepwater shipping terminal near the border with Germany.

    It claims the project "will lead to an environmental catastrophe"

    https://x.com/notesfrompoland/status/1905587977998266376

    The word has a pretty broad meaning in German. The best translation here is probably "habitat".

    Edit: This works both ways. I've interacted with Germans who simply refused to believe that the word "collaboration" could have anything other than negative connotations.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,256
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,438
    edited March 29

    Nigelb said:

    Lebensraum ??

    A German group, Lebensraum Vorpommern, has filed a further legal challenge against Poland's plans to construct a deepwater shipping terminal near the border with Germany.

    It claims the project "will lead to an environmental catastrophe"

    https://x.com/notesfrompoland/status/1905587977998266376

    The word has a pretty broad meaning in German. The best translation here is probably "habitat".
    That gives me an idea for a new retail brand.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,112
    carnforth said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Anyone know what the Sunday Times frontpage about the police storming a Quakers house is all about?

    "meeting house" i.e church. It had been booked by a protest group planning some kind of disruption police deemed illegal. So it's not like they barged into a service...
    Thanks
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,022
    Oh God, the clocks...
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,517

    Oh God, the clocks...

    Here I am staying up watching the Sinatra episode of Magnum PI. Better get to bed.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,671
    edited March 30

    Oh God, the clocks...

    I know, right?

    Reunion dinner this evening at the House, first time in a dinner suit for years, disappointingly despite rumours, but understandably, no appearance by KCIII, far too much to drink, and now the lie in curtailed by the clocks. And Mother’s Day.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,928
    TimS said:

    Oh God, the clocks...

    I know, right?

    Reunion dinner this evening at the House, first time in a dinner suit for years, disappointingly despite rumours, but understandably, no appearance by KCIII, far too much to drink, and now the lie in curtailed by the clocks. And Mother’s Day.
    The clocks are going forward, not back, so you get an extra hour lie-in.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,671
    viewcode said:

    TimS said:

    Oh God, the clocks...

    I know, right?

    Reunion dinner this evening at the House, first time in a dinner suit for years, disappointingly despite rumours, but understandably, no appearance by KCIII, far too much to drink, and now the lie in curtailed by the clocks. And Mother’s Day.
    The clocks are going forward, not back, so you get an extra hour lie-in.
    Nice try! I’m not that drunk
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,112
    I want my hour back.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,308
    Andy_JS said:

    I want my hour back.

    You got a free one six months ago.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,022
    Andy_JS said:

    I want my hour back.

    I want my GMT.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,928
    TimS said:

    viewcode said:

    TimS said:

    Oh God, the clocks...

    I know, right?

    Reunion dinner this evening at the House, first time in a dinner suit for years, disappointingly despite rumours, but understandably, no appearance by KCIII, far too much to drink, and now the lie in curtailed by the clocks. And Mother’s Day.
    The clocks are going forward, not back, so you get an extra hour lie-in.
    Nice try! I’m not that drunk
    :)
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,928

    Andy_JS said:

    I want my hour back.

    I want my GMT.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wTP2RUD_cL0
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,112
    "The police have become the rent-a-goons of the easily offended
    A couple were arrested and held for eight hours after criticising their daughter’s school on WhatsApp
    Tom Slater"

    https://www.spiked-online.com/2025/03/29/the-police-have-become-the-rent-a-goons-of-the-easily-offended/
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,581

    I wonder if rejoining the single market becomes an economic necessity when Trump's "liberation day" of tarrifs kick off on the second. I suspect that Starmer is finding out there are no exceptions no matter how deep your nose goes. At some point he will have to pull the ejector seat cord on the red lines to keep the economy floating.

    If only the EU didn’t insist on all the political stuff
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,581
    Andy_JS said:

    Anyone know what the Sunday Times frontpage about the police storming a Quakers house is all about?

    It was a room rented by a protest group that intended to bring London to a halt during April. They also raided several other properties.

    Basically they arrested some people who were planning a crime. It was incidental (or perhaps deliberate) that they were in a Quaker owned building
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,581
    MaxPB said:

    Pulpstar said:


    They have made an investment and are entitled to a return on that.

    What fresh hell is this ?!?
    I believe in property rights and the rule of law.
    I'm sorry, someone who didn't do their due diligence properly and fucked up doesn't deserve a government bailout of any kind. They fucked up, they have to live with that poor decision, I also think it is a net benefit because these rent seekers will be put off investing in existing low risk UK infrastructure. I see in the same bracket as a buy to let landlord, they're taking precisely zero risk when they "invest" their money into existing property. The government should increase that risk factor to an appropriate level for the expected 4-5% annual ROI or reduce the ROI to more like 0-1% if the risk level is impossible to increase. Fundamentally money being put into something that already exists does nothing for the economy. It's not creating any additional demand for new infrastructure and someone already owned it before anyway so you're really just helping the previous owner cash out.

    For something intangible like shares there is no real downside and companies have a lot of power over shareholders to influence dividend payouts and yields as well as capital investment plans because the shareholders are sufficiently diversified and have conflicting agendas. When those funds/individuals own the infrastructure or housing directly it's a recipe for neglect and rent seeking. There is simply no oversight because the board is in no way independent and and the non-diversified share ownership means that the investors can simply vote themselves unsustainable dividends paid for by increasing leverage, as we've seen across the water industry (and I would venture the housing sector too).

    I don't know what the solution is in the grand scheme, yet I do know that it starts with bankrupting the water industry and nationalising it as well as barring "investment" from any company that sucked the blood from the industry for a minimum of 25 years and barring any directors of senior level management from being involved with mUK industry for the same period. These companies and those managers bring zero value to the UK economy and are in fact a huge negative, we should act in our own interest and tell them quite literally to get fucked.
    There are two things.

    Paying someone a nominal amount to get their vote and avoid diligence is simply a matter of practicality. Whether someone loses 95% or 100% of their investment is not a “bail out”.

    You took it further though and applied it to all utility investors with the kind of hostile language (“parasites”) that Trump uses about others. Can’t you see that undermining the rule of law and commercial contract is not a sensible thing to do?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,844
    edited March 30
    Andy_JS said:

    I want my hour back.

    I can sort that for you, but it will require a little patience.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,844
    That's pathetic.

    The Tories won't even admit to their disgraceful nomination of Spielman for a peerage.

    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2025/mar/29/ofsted-chief-amanda-spielman-peerage-lords-ruth-perry
    A Conservative party spokesperson said: “It would be unfair to comment on whether specific individuals have or have not been nominated or vetted for any honour or dignity. We do not comment on speculation or purported leaks.”

    In the context of the granting of a peerage to that woman, "unfair to comment" is simply grotesque.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,844
    The new supersonic airliner in development might seriously screw up the current economics of airline long haul.

    From the thread on the economic case for the Boom Aerospace aircraft in development:

    https://x.com/bscholl/status/1906111973848461482
    ...Here's the secret of international airline economics: the ~40-80 business class flatbeds at the front of the airplane represent more than 50% of revenue and >80% of operating profit. Business class is where almost all the money is!

    ..,With 64 seats, fares close to today's business class (say, $5k), airlines can fill seats easily on many more routes. Overture works economically most anywhere a three-class airplane does.

    We see 600+ economically viable routes. More if we can also fly supersonic over land*...


    *Which they probably will be able to, as it's a lot quieter than Concorde.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,308
    Nigelb said:

    The new supersonic airliner in development might seriously screw up the current economics of airline long haul.

    From the thread on the economic case for the Boom Aerospace aircraft in development:

    https://x.com/bscholl/status/1906111973848461482
    ...Here's the secret of international airline economics: the ~40-80 business class flatbeds at the front of the airplane represent more than 50% of revenue and >80% of operating profit. Business class is where almost all the money is!

    ..,With 64 seats, fares close to today's business class (say, $5k), airlines can fill seats easily on many more routes. Overture works economically most anywhere a three-class airplane does.

    We see 600+ economically viable routes. More if we can also fly supersonic over land*...


    *Which they probably will be able to, as it's a lot quieter than Concorde.

    Posted by the CEO of the company designing them.
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