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Is inflation the key metric for winning the general election? – politicalbetting.com

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  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,934
    MaxPB said:

    Tens of billions have been sucked out of customers bank accounts and we get absolutely fuck all in return. The rivers are still polluted and the beaches still have raw sewage (a polite way of saying shit and piss) pumped into the sea on a daily basis even without rain causing overflows. Zero investment, tens of billions in leverage and tens of billions paid out in dividends.

    I'm a pretty right wing capitalist but the one area which makes me a raging lefty is the water industry. Bankrupt it all and bar any previous owner of any water company from owning UK infrastructure. They need to be turned into forced sellers of anything else they own too, literal fucking parasites sucking the blood out of the country.
    I am in admiration of your moderation and even temper. Not sure I can match it.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,414
    This is not an article from The Onion.

    Alarm as Florida Republicans move to fill deported workers’ jobs with children: ‘It’s insane, right?’

    Governor Ron DeSantis leads push to loosen child labor laws as immigration crackdown leads to workforce shortage


    Beneath the smugness of Ron DeSantis, at Florida leading the nation in immigration enforcement lies something of a conundrum: how to fill the essential jobs of the scores of immigrant workers targeted for deportation.

    The answer, according to Florida lawmakers, is the state’s schoolchildren, who as young as 14 could soon be allowed to work overnight shifts without a break – even on school nights.

    A bill that progressed this week through the Republican-dominated state senate seeks to remove numerous existing protections for teenage workers, and allow them, in the Florida governor’s words, to step into the shoes of immigrants who supply Florida’s tourism and agriculture industries with “dirt cheap labor”.

    “What’s wrong with expecting our young people to be working part-time now? That’s how it used to be when I was growing up,” DeSantis said at an immigration forum with Donald Trump’s “border czar”, Tom Homan, in Sarasota last week.


    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/mar/29/florida-republicans-immigrant-jobs-child-labor?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=bluesky&CMP=bsky_gu
  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,534
    edited March 29
    Phil said:

    A fair criticism. But if you send a bunch of tests to a lab & one of them comes back out by a factor of eight then it’s utility as a forensic test is surely fatally compromised?

    At the very least, the jury should have been accurately informed of what level of confidence they should place in the insulin / C-peptide tests. Instead the judge told them they could have absolute confidence in the reported values.
    According to the linked adverse event report the manufacturer of the test says (I paraphrase): “yep, sometimes the test over-reads by a factor of ten & this is completely normal behaviour”. https://www.accessdata.fda.gov/scripts/cdrh/cfdocs/cfmaude/detail.cfm?mdrfoi__id=17817409&pc=CFP
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,272
    ydoethur said:

    You think China is 'resting quietly under a rock?' In what way?
    My knowlege of China stretches to a book and a documentary by Shirley Maclean and three good friends who now live and work there. The three I know personally two English and one French who are all successful and don't know each other wax lyrical about the country as did Shirley Maclean. America I know well and enough to know it's become a pretty dislikable place
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,876
    Seems I'm the only person in Newcastle not on the Town Moor.
    You can hear it from here, mind.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,004

    It would. Someone would get the franchise with none of the debt of Thames Water.
    Phew. Good. I'd find it a bit awkward without water or sewerage!
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,919

    I’m just a fan of peace and tranquillity

    I heard you also posted under a sock puppet called RagingTorrent.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,794
    edited March 29
    I have to say I'm also pretty disappointed in the CMA opening a completely unnecessary investigation into transatlantic travel. It's this kind of anti-business action the government needs to crack down on. There is precisely zero chance that forcing IAG/AA to give up market share to Air France or Lufthansa will result in price drops for consumers, all it will lead to is money draining out of the country as a mostly UK owned airline loses out to a French/Dutch or German one instead.

    You don't see US or national regulators in Europe taking aim at their own companies like this, it's something that we British specialise in, tear down our success stories, let foreign competitors in, no benefit for consumers and negative outcomes for the economy.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,840

    My problem is that I will have to go to a party tomorrow which means my mother's friends will try and marry me off, and boy do they use the guilt trips.

    As far as they know I am single which makes things awkward.
    The trouble is, that between your modesty, subtlety and quiet taste in shoes, they think you are a great catch…
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,342
    edited March 29
    rcs1000 said:

    Basic economics is not a strong point of the current administration.
    Nor is the notion of enlightened self-interest, which should always be the guiding principle of public affairs. Neither altruism, nor pure selfishness.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,840
    Roger said:

    My knowlege of China stretches to a book and a documentary by Shirley Maclean and three good friends who now live and work there. The three I know personally two English and one French who are all successful and don't know each other wax lyrical about the country as did Shirley Maclean. America I know well and enough to know it's become a pretty dislikable place
    China is like Dubai, in a number of ways, with more industry. If you are the kind of expat who can ignore the shit going on behind the scenes (and believes it can’t happen to you) then it is awesome for a consumerist, rather empty life.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,198
    dixiedean said:

    Seems I'm the only person in Newcastle not on the Town Moor.
    You can hear it from here, mind.

    We went to Latimers today and had a walk up to Souter Lighthouse.,the traffic on the drive back was chocka. Good for,them. Can’t hear it here in North Durham.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,934

    This is not an article from The Onion.

    Alarm as Florida Republicans move to fill deported workers’ jobs with children: ‘It’s insane, right?’

    Governor Ron DeSantis leads push to loosen child labor laws as immigration crackdown leads to workforce shortage


    Beneath the smugness of Ron DeSantis, at Florida leading the nation in immigration enforcement lies something of a conundrum: how to fill the essential jobs of the scores of immigrant workers targeted for deportation.

    The answer, according to Florida lawmakers, is the state’s schoolchildren, who as young as 14 could soon be allowed to work overnight shifts without a break – even on school nights.

    A bill that progressed this week through the Republican-dominated state senate seeks to remove numerous existing protections for teenage workers, and allow them, in the Florida governor’s words, to step into the shoes of immigrants who supply Florida’s tourism and agriculture industries with “dirt cheap labor”.

    “What’s wrong with expecting our young people to be working part-time now? That’s how it used to be when I was growing up,” DeSantis said at an immigration forum with Donald Trump’s “border czar”, Tom Homan, in Sarasota last week.


    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/mar/29/florida-republicans-immigrant-jobs-child-labor?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=bluesky&CMP=bsky_gu

    This administration must be the Onion's worst nightmare. No matter how ridiculous they go the administration itself relentlessly exceeds it.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,342

    China is like Dubai, in a number of ways, with more industry. If you are the kind of expat who can ignore the shit going on behind the scenes (and believes it can’t happen to you) then it is
    awesome for a consumerist, rather empty life.
    “The leopards won’t eat my face” is enough, for many people.

    And, in most cases, the leopards won’t eat your face, so long as you don’t provoke them (and, the leopards decide what is provocation.)

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,794
    Roger said:

    My knowlege of China stretches to a book and a documentary by Shirley Maclean and three good friends who now live and work there. The three I know personally two English and one French who are all successful and don't know each other wax lyrical about the country as did Shirley Maclean. America I know well and enough to know it's become a pretty dislikable place
    I think China is great for foreigners because we have no stake in the future of the country. We'll stick by the rules, not criticise the government and use VPNs to access western media. I think America will largely become a similar place, if you go there, don't criticise Trump and if you do want to do that then post it under an anonymous profile not linked to your own name in any way, similar to how you would need to act to visit or live in China.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,934
    ydoethur said:

    I work for many Chinese clients and have worked for Chinese owned companies in education for many years.

    And either your friends are mad, or they're scared.

    You think Trump is a gangster? Xi makes Trump look like the Dalai Lama.

    You think the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is bad? What's going on in Xinjiang makes that look like a moderately quiet Friday night in Skegness.

    You want to cosy up to China? Madness. Simple madness. America under Trump is unreliable, corrupt as hell, violent and becoming more dystopian by the second - but it has a long way to fall before it is China.
    Yep. A whole other level. We just expect better of the US.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,840
    Sean_F said:

    “The leopards won’t eat my face” is enough, for many people.

    And, in most cases, the leopards won’t eat your face, so long as you don’t provoke them (and, the leopards decide what is provocation.)

    And then you find the cases in both Dubai and China where an accidental intersection with a local princeling led to the discovery that the local legal system is just extended bodyguarding for them.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,602
    MaxPB said:

    No it isn't and this isn't a "premium" it's out and out price gouging by a monopoly supplier aided and abetted by the toothless regulator. Bankrupt the whole industry and nationalise it. Water should never have been privatised, customers have paid tens of billions in dividends to vulture capitalists and our rivers and beaches are more polluted than ever. No more dividends, no more leverage, no more private ownership of monopoly suppliers and bar the current
    and previous shareholders from purchasing UK infrastructure assets for a minimum
    period of 25 years.
    Administration is a procedural nightmare. What we need is a quick move to a resolution.

    If it takes given the equity holders 5p in the £ to get their support for a deal that avoids administration that is worth it.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,934
    MaxPB said:

    I have to say I'm also pretty disappointed in the CMA opening a completely unnecessary investigation into transatlantic travel. It's this kind of anti-business action the government needs to crack down on. There is precisely zero chance that forcing IAG/AA to give up market share to Air France or Lufthansa will result in price drops for consumers, all it will lead to is money draining out of the country as a mostly UK owned airline loses out to a French/Dutch or German one instead.

    You don't see US or national regulators in Europe taking aim at their own companies like this, it's something that we British specialise in, tear down our success stories, let foreign competitors in, no benefit for consumers and negative outcomes for the economy.

    I completely agree but you can make the same argument for the magnificent 7 in the US. At some point anti-competitive behaviour switches from a good thing for UK plc or the US to a bad thing. I don't think transatlantic flights are there at the moment (although they have been in the past) but it is something to be aware of.

    The CMA should be focusing on the unbelievable abuse of Amazon's marketplace. But maybe that requires more courage.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,785
    Phil said:

    According to the linked adverse event report the manufacturer of the test says (I paraphrase): “yep, sometimes the test over-reads by a factor of ten & this is completely normal behaviour”. https://www.accessdata.fda.gov/scripts/cdrh/cfdocs/cfmaude/detail.cfm?mdrfoi__id=17817409&pc=CFP
    A factor of ten out is no where near large enough to account for the imbalance of insulin and c peptide in the baby.

    "Blood samples taken from Child F returned an "extremely high" insulin level of 4,657 and a very low C-peptide level of less than 169, indicating synthetic insulin was in his system."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-merseyside-63808514

    The C peptide would naturally be higher than the insulin. It would take an assay to be 2 orders of magnitude out to explain the result.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,794

    Administration is a procedural nightmare. What we need is a quick move to a resolution.

    If it takes given the equity holders 5p in the £ to get their support for a deal that avoids administration that is worth it.

    No, what we need is a reckoning for the parasites. Chase them out of the country with fucking pitchforks if necessary.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,934
    Cyclefree said:

    Dear me - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ce989vygkz7o.

    I expect it was a "one-off" incident for the victim too. How many such offences must there be before action is taken?

    That is just astounding. WTF were they thinking?
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,602

    I heard you also posted under
    a sock puppet called RagingTorrent.
    Damn you found me.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,973
    edited March 29
    ydoethur said:

    I work for many Chinese clients and have worked for Chinese owned companies in education for many years.

    And either your friends are mad, or they're scared.

    You think Trump is a gangster? Xi makes Trump look like the Dalai Lama.

    You think the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is bad? What's going on in Xinjiang makes that look like a moderately quiet Friday night in Skegness.

    You want to cosy up to China? Madness. Simple madness. America under Trump is unreliable, corrupt as hell, violent and becoming more dystopian by the second - but it has a long way to fall before it is China.
    The difference is China is predictable and stable, with an underlying political philosophy (however distasteful).

    We have no idea who Trump will deport or arrest, what tariffs he will impose, what laws and contracts he will ignore, what countries he will invade. There is also the chance of widespread civil unrest - or worse.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,994
    Some pollsters are more trustworthy than others.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,083
    Eabhal said:

    The difference is China is predictable and stable, with an underlying political philosophy (however distasteful). We have no idea who Trump will deport or arrest, what tariffs he will impose, what laws and contracts he will ignore, what countries he will invade. There is also the chance of widespread civil unrest - or worse.
    That does not mean, even if it's true (which, incidentally, it isn't, as there are all sorts of political and economic shocks burning away in the background) we shouldn't be very wary of them.

    The EU, yes, by all means get closer to that. But not China.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,785
    ydoethur said:

    I work for many Chinese clients and have worked for Chinese owned companies in education for many years.

    And either your friends are mad, or they're scared.

    You think Trump is a gangster? Xi makes Trump look like the Dalai Lama.

    You think the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is bad? What's going on in Xinjiang makes that look like a moderately quiet Friday night in Skegness.

    You want to cosy up to China? Madness. Simple madness. America under Trump is unreliable, corrupt as hell, violent and becoming more dystopian by the second - but it has a long way to fall before it is China.
    Yes, but as a friend of mine who worked in Uganda under Idi Amin, and then Milton Obote remarked, it was safer under Amin. Under Amin you just didn't criticise the government or Army, under Obote the killings were much more random.

    So it's a matter of choosing lawful evil (China) over chaotic evil (Trumpistan).
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,602
    MaxPB said:


    No, what we need is a reckoning for the parasites. Chase them out of the country with fucking pitchforks if necessary.
    The current owners are not the ones that caused the problem. They have made a terrible investment, that is all.

    Macquarie, on the other hand…
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,342
    DavidL said:

    That is just astounding. WTF were they thinking?
    Rape is presumably okay, if the victim is not a patient.

    Would the same principle apply to murder?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,794
    Eabhal said:

    The difference is China is predictable and stable, with an underlying political philosophy (however distasteful).

    We have no idea who Trump will deport or arrest, what tariffs he will impose, what laws and contracts he will ignore, what countries he will invade. There is also the chance of widespread civil unrest - or worse.
    I think Trump is entirely predictable, he has an innate need to be seen to be loved or be seen as the best. Any dissent will be quickly shut down and any foreigner who disagrees will be deported. Act under that premise and you'll generally be ok.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,384
    Evening all :)

    I presume we've covered the BMG Poll in today's "I":

    Lab: 26% (NC)
    Con: 24% +2
    Ref: 23% -4
    LD 14% +2
    Grn 8% (NC)


    A poor poll for Reform but better for the Conservatives who, I think, have turned the corner though I still think the May locals won't be pleasant for Badenoch.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,083
    A straw in the wind, perhaps?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ce34342032do

    I should point out this school was in a bad way anyway - as in, shut because it couldn't afford to pay exam entry fees.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,794

    The current owners are not the ones that caused the problem. They have made a terrible investment, that is all.

    Macquarie, on the other hand…
    Past and present shareholders across the whole industry. I mean they're still sucking dividends out to this day.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,342
    Foxy said:

    Yes, but as a friend of mine who worked in Uganda under Idi Amin, and then Milton Obote remarked, it was safer under Amin. Under Amin you just didn't criticise the government or Army, under Obote the killings were much more random.

    So it's a matter of choosing lawful evil (China) over chaotic evil (Trumpistan).
    That’s not true of Amin. He could be your best friend, until he decided you’d offended him.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,538
    DavidL said:

    That is just astounding. WTF were they thinking?
    On the other hand, it's not a work-related incident. What is the evidence he would rape his patients?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,410
    Ukraine can produce up to 5M FPV drones per year, with over 150 domestic manufacturers and one factory making 4K drones daily. Drones now account for 85% of frontline strikes, and Ukraine has surpassed Russia in UAV production. The main challenge remains funding, with only 2M drones produced last year due to shortages.

    https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1905988411346825410?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet

    Money and patience is what is required by the western world.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,342

    On the other hand, it's not a work-related incident. What is the evidence he would rape his patients?
    Does it matter?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,785
    Sean_F said:

    Rape is presumably okay, if the victim is not a patient.

    Would the same principle apply to murder?
    I don't think the Doctor concerned has been convicted or even charged with rape.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,934
    edited March 29

    On the other hand, it's not a work-related incident. What is the evidence he would rape his patients?
    He's not a convicted rapist. I withdraw that allegation.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,902

    It would. Someone would get the franchise with none of the debt of Thames Water.
    And they'd rip us off all over again.

    I'd nationalise the assets and award private sector management contracts, renewable ever five years if performance is at least satisfactory.
    That way there's no way to gear up the assets all over again, to siphon off cash.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,840
    DavidL said:

    That is just astounding. WTF were they thinking?
    They made it clear what they were thinking.

    1) He committed rape.
    2) But he raped a friend, not a patient.
    3) So thats not a problem for being a doctor. No sir.

  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,973
    edited March 29

    Ukraine can produce up to 5M FPV drones per year, with over 150 domestic manufacturers and one factory making 4K drones daily. Drones now account for 85% of frontline strikes, and Ukraine has surpassed Russia in UAV production. The main challenge remains funding, with only 2M drones produced last year due to shortages.

    https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1905988411346825410?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet

    Money and patience is what is required by the western world.

    We should sign an exclusive drone export deal with Ukraine for our armed forces (and mountain rescue teams, police , businesses etc etc) over c10 years in exchange for whatever cash they need right now to get production to 5 million.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,785
    Sean_F said:

    That’s not true of Amin. He could be your best friend, until he decided you’d offended him.
    Just quoting my friend who lived through Amin and Obote. It was Obotes men who ransacked his hospital, raped and killed his staff.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,538
    Sean_F said:

    Does it matter?
    Yes. Criminals need to be able to work, otherwise they will make their living through crime.

    The BMA's sole role should be to assess whether doctors should be able to work professionally.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,840
    Eabhal said:

    The difference is China is predictable and stable, with an underlying political philosophy (however distasteful).

    We have no idea who Trump will deport or arrest, what tariffs he will impose, what laws and contracts he will ignore, what countries he will invade. There is also the chance of widespread civil unrest - or worse.
    A sane approach would be have multi-lateral relationships with various countries and groupings. The closeness of the relationship being a function of how fucking fascist they are *not*…
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,602
    MaxPB said:

    Past and present shareholders across the whole industry. I mean they're still sucking dividends out to this day.
    They have made an investment and are entitled to a return on that.

    The basic failure here was (a) ZIRP, (b) OFWAT repeatedly mispricing debt - they relied on market calculations of WACC but Macquarie regularly achieved better than expected in the market; (c) OFWAT not regulating leverage; and (d) OFWAT allowing dividends to be paid when there was a capex backlog

    Basically Macquarie ran rings around OFWAT. The government should blacklist them for a decade. Problem is they are one of the most connected infra investors and we need infra funds to invest in the UK
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,538

    They made it clear what they were thinking.

    1) He committed rape.
    2) But he raped a friend, not a patient.
    3) So thats not a problem for being a doctor. No sir.

    What if he had stolen money from a friend?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,934

    Ukraine can produce up to 5M FPV drones per year, with over 150 domestic manufacturers and one factory making 4K drones daily. Drones now account for 85% of frontline strikes, and Ukraine has surpassed Russia in UAV production. The main challenge remains funding, with only 2M drones produced last year due to shortages.

    https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1905988411346825410?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet

    Money and patience is what is required by the western world.

    The scale of what Ukraine has achieved in drone manufacture and development makes our tentative steps in that direction look ridiculous. We should buy the right to manufacture their latest designs under licence, paid for in drones.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,840
    MaxPB said:

    No, what we need is a reckoning for the parasites. Chase them out of the country with fucking pitchforks if necessary.
    Silly idea, chasing them out of the country.

    There’s all that infrastructure that needs building. And a shortage of labourers. But happily, no shortage of teaspoons to dig with.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,785

    What if he had stolen money from a friend?
    Pretty much any criminal conviction results in suspension or being removed from the register.

    Not before conviction though.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,538

    They have made an investment and are entitled to a return on that.

    The basic failure here was (a) ZIRP, (b) OFWAT repeatedly mispricing debt - they relied on market calculations of WACC but Macquarie regularly achieved better than expected in the market; (c) OFWAT not regulating leverage; and (d) OFWAT allowing dividends to be paid when there was a capex backlog

    Basically Macquarie ran rings around OFWAT. The government should blacklist them for a decade. Problem is they are one of the most connected infra investors and we need infra funds to invest in the UK
    Surely no-one is entitled to return from an investment. If you fuck up, you lose your shirt. Profit is the reward for risk.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,825
    edited March 29
    Phil said:

    Hate to dredge up Letby again, but WTF?

    https://unherd.com/newsroom/were-the-blood-tests-in-lucy-letbys-conviction-flawed/

    Note that the wildly inaccurate measurements claimed by the lab for the quality control sample are very similar to the ones reported for Baby L.

    The jury were instructed that they could rely on their assessment of the use of insulin by Letby to poison baby L & F to inform their opinion of her guilt in all the other deaths or injuries. They were also instructed that they could rely on the lab’s assessment of the insulin / C-peptide in the blood samples by the judge in his summing up.

    If the insulin tests were as wildly inaccurate as claimed, then the entire prosecution falls apart I think? The cross-admissibility instruction makes the rest of the convictions unsafe.

    I shall wait and see, but three points: A discussion of the insulin cases needs to look at the totality of the evidence on those counts, which is summarised in para 29 and 30 of the Court of Appeal judgment.

    There is, despite suggestions otherwise, an extensive series of threads to the totality of the evidence of murders and attempts of which the insulin evidence is only one. In reality the Letby case has to succeed on every count separately because each case is different.

    A perfectly possible, and I think probable, explanation for why Letby accepted that the 2 babies had been poisoned by insulin is that she had unique knowledge of the fact and make a mistake in failing to deny it. This is especially so as her counsel had challenged in cross examination the reliability of the insulin findings. She slipt up.

    https://www.judiciary.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/R-v-Letby-Final-Judgment-20240702.pdf
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,840

    What if he had stolen money from a friend?
    I dunno.

    What if he stole it from a member of the GMC?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,934

    They made it clear what they were thinking.

    1) He committed rape.
    2) But he raped a friend, not a patient.
    3) So thats not a problem for being a doctor. No sir.

    Describing that as thinking is remarkably generous. Risk assessment for female patients? Jeez.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,272
    carnforth said:

    You're assuming (and Roger is claiming) that it's about politics. But Roger would have his beloved EU citizenship by now if he'd taken up residence in France in 2016. So we all know it's about tax.
    No it isn't it's about friends and family. I have very little interest in tax having been ridiculously overpaid for several years
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,538
    Foxy said:

    Pretty much any criminal conviction results in suspension or being removed from the register.

    Not before conviction though.
    In my view it shouldn't. Obviously if a doctor is a risk to patients, but many criminal convictions won't. BMA should not be a morality police.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,541
    Foxy said:

    I don't think the Doctor concerned has been convicted or even charged with rape.
    If the police couldn't even reach the threshold for charging, I'm not sure the medical authorities should be going around making "balance of probability" decisions that he did it:

    "Police investigated but did not charge Dr Foy-Yamah, but the Medical Tribunal Practitioners Service (MPTS) concluded on the balance of probabilities that he had raped the woman - which he denies."
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,840

    Yes. Criminals need to be able to work, otherwise they will make their living through crime.

    The BMA's sole role should be to assess whether doctors should be able to work professionally.
    So women should just trust that their doctors are only recreational rapists, not on-the-job rapists?

    Have you ever encountered the concept of a “position of trust”? Safeguarding?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,785

    In my view it shouldn't. Obviously if a doctor is a risk to patients, but many criminal convictions won't. BMA should not be a morality police.
    It's the Fitness to practice tribunal of the GMC, nothing to do with the BMA.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,538
    DavidL said:

    Describing that as thinking is remarkably generous. Risk assessment for female patients? Jeez.
    If it was "date rape" that is still reprehensible, but is a particular circumstance that does not necessarily translate to how he would treat a patient. You mention "risk" but it would be interesting to know how many date-rapists have raped other people.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,538
    Foxy said:

    It's the Fitness to practice tribunal of the GMC, nothing to do with the BMA.
    My bad, but the opinion still stands
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,934
    I think that the best that can be said is that the second half of BHA-v-Forest does not have the irredeemable tedium of the first half.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,400

    Ukraine can produce up to 5M FPV drones per year, with over 150 domestic manufacturers and one factory making 4K drones daily. Drones now account for 85% of frontline strikes, and Ukraine has surpassed Russia in UAV production. The main challenge remains funding, with only 2M drones produced last year due to shortages.

    https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1905988411346825410?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet

    Money and patience is what is required by the western world.

    Odd that bacon bagels and coffee might be the only war fuel they need.

    Oh and teapots for the afternoon lull, and not the Farage and Trump kind.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,902

    Administration is a procedural nightmare. What we need is a quick move to a resolution.

    If it takes given the equity holders 5p in the £ to get their support for a deal that avoids administration that is worth it.

    It need not be in this case.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,934

    If it was "date rape" that is still reprehensible, but is a particular circumstance that does not necessarily translate to how he would treat a patient. You mention "risk" but it would be interesting to know how many date-rapists have raped other people.
    One of the reasons that our conviction rate for rape has improved is that in appropriate cases a specialist squad has gone looking for previous partners of the alleged rapist. And the answer is a hell of a lot.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,902
    edited March 29
    MaxPB said:

    Past and present shareholders across the whole industry. I mean they're still sucking dividends out to this day.
    There is no good way for a universally essential public utility monopoly to be privately owned.

    Government ownership, and private management is as close as you can possibly get.

    Otherwise you're effectively offering rentier income. On assets the public has financed.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,272
    Interesting that the Brighton/ Forest game was paused for Ramadan.

    Very civilised and nice to see.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,785

    So women should just trust that their doctors are only recreational rapists, not on-the-job rapists?

    Have you ever encountered the concept of a “position of trust”? Safeguarding?
    The Suspension mean that the Doctor is likely unemployable, and if ever employed would have to have a safeguarding plan in place to mitigate risk.

    It isn't impossible to return to work after a suspension, even a conviction for manslaughter. Dr Bawa-Garba is back at work for example.

    https://www.medscape.co.uk/viewarticle/paediatrician-who-won-victory-over-gmc-gains-consultant-2022a1000uob
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,876
    Not convinced you'd be allowed to teach with that record.
    Even adults.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,400
    I've been reading (oh god I hear!) about the Royal Navy. A big history by NAM Roger - I think it was @Carnyx that was also so engaged.

    It really is very good.

    Anyway, one of the things that has recently struck me as interesting is how the government/admiralty fiddled the tendering process so that shipbuilding capacity would be maintained. It's oligarchical stuff but really fascinating.

    So anyway I have a question to you - have we lost the ability to find the minds needed for an oligarchy?

    (All the Lords and Ladies, Damsels (fruity M'Lord) and Dames are just a waste of space.)
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,482
    Is this a separate incident?

    https://www.blackpoolgazette.co.uk/health/urgent-review-at-blackpool-victoria-hospital-adds-to-litany-of-issues-4664237

    Meanwhile, a hearing is already being held into allegations that Dr Aloaye Foy Yamah, who reportedly worked at the Vic as a consultant in acute medicine and gastroenterology, “behaved in a sexually motivated way towards” a patient “without her consent”.

    Foy-Yamah is also accused of treating the patient, named in documents as Person A, despite having a “close personal relationship” with her.

    He also allegedly arranged for her blood to be tested without her knowledge when it was not needed medically and failed to record the test in her medical notes.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,541
    edited March 29
    dixiedean said:

    Not convinced you'd be allowed to teach with that record.
    Even adults.

    Apparently not (charged and acquitted, rather than not charged):

    https://www.irwinmitchell.com/news-and-insights/expert-comment/post/102f0xz/teacher-acquitted-of-rape-loses-enhanced-criminal-check-appeal

    But not charged? Seriously? When the accuser is known and available to the police?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,794
    DavidL said:

    I completely agree but you can make the same argument for the magnificent 7 in the US. At some point anti-competitive behaviour switches from a good thing for UK plc or the US to a bad thing. I don't think transatlantic flights are there at the moment (although they have been in the past) but it is something to be aware of.

    The CMA should be focusing on the unbelievable abuse of Amazon's marketplace. But maybe that requires more courage.
    In this scenario there's just a complete misreading of the market. The Transatlantic route is at capacity because Heathrow and Gatwick are at capacity. Handing slots to foreign operators will just hand them market share without any chance of price reductions because the route is at capacity. They could reasonably increase their price relative to BA/AA and still sell over 90% of seats on the route because demand hugely outstrips supply for the routes in question.

    If the CMA wants real competition on the routes then it should lobby the government to increase capacity by building new runways, not setting out to damage a UK company in favour of foreign ones.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,414
    Who could have predicted this?

    Record numbers of children, many from private schools, are applying to top state sixth forms for their A-levels, a rise partly driven by the introduction of VAT, according to head teachers.

    Some schools have reported applications doubling for Year 12 places.

    In January, the government removed independent schools’ exemption from VAT. Bridget Phillipson, the education secretary, said the exemption was a “luxury we cannot afford”. She predicted “very few families will move out of private schools”.


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/education/article/state-sixth-form-vat-private-school-fees-l5c0zlcnj
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,083
    MaxPB said:

    In this scenario there's just a complete misreading of the market. The Transatlantic route is at capacity because Heathrow and Gatwick are at capacity. Handing slots to foreign operators will just hand them market share without any chance of price reductions because the route is at capacity. They could reasonably increase their price relative to BA/AA and still sell over 90% of seats on the route because demand hugely outstrips supply for the routes in question.

    If the CMA wants real competition on the routes then it should lobby the government to increase capacity by building new runways, not setting out to damage a UK company in favour of foreign ones.
    Judging from this thread flying Transatlantic will soon be like flying by private jet.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,410
    DavidL said:

    The scale of what Ukraine has achieved in drone manufacture and development makes our tentative steps in that direction look ridiculous. We should buy the right to manufacture their latest designs under licence, paid for in drones.
    I do wonder if the UK's defence establishment is in denial about the importance of mass production and prefers weapons which are top mend, extremely expensive and take years/decades to develop.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,902
    Omnium said:

    I've been reading (oh god I hear!) about the Royal Navy. A big history by NAM Roger - I think it was @Carnyx that was also so engaged.

    It really is very good.

    Anyway, one of the things that has recently struck me as interesting is how the government/admiralty fiddled the tendering process so that shipbuilding capacity would be maintained. It's oligarchical stuff but really fascinating.

    So anyway I have a question to you - have we lost the ability to find the minds needed for an oligarchy?

    (All the Lords and Ladies, Damsels (fruity M'Lord) and Dames are just a waste of space.)

    That's a very interesting question.

    A parallel is the career of Admiral Rickover.
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyman_G._Rickover
  • eekeek Posts: 29,535

    Who could have predicted this?

    Record numbers of children, many from private schools, are applying to top state sixth forms for their A-levels, a rise partly driven by the introduction of VAT, according to head teachers.

    Some schools have reported applications doubling for Year 12 places.

    In January, the government removed independent schools’ exemption from VAT. Bridget Phillipson, the education secretary, said the exemption was a “luxury we cannot afford”. She predicted “very few families will move out of private schools”.


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/education/article/state-sixth-form-vat-private-school-fees-l5c0zlcnj

    All of us - but it's been the case for years that you do private school up to GCSE and then move back to the local sixth form (with private tuition) to increase your chances of getting to a Russell Group Uni..
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,084


    They have made an investment and are entitled to a return on that.

    What fresh hell is this ?!?
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,541

    Who could have predicted this?

    Record numbers of children, many from private schools, are applying to top state sixth forms for their A-levels, a rise partly driven by the introduction of VAT, according to head teachers.

    Some schools have reported applications doubling for Year 12 places.

    In January, the government removed independent schools’ exemption from VAT. Bridget Phillipson, the education secretary, said the exemption was a “luxury we cannot afford”. She predicted “very few families will move out of private schools”.


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/education/article/state-sixth-form-vat-private-school-fees-l5c0zlcnj

    With the bonus that universities will consider you a "state school student" if you do A levels at a state school.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,794
    As an example of why UK/US routes are packed - we're in Italy at the moment and over half of the Americans we've met flew through London and stopped for three or four days on the way through or intend to do so on the way back. It's almost the default way Americans come to Europe, via London and I'd say that it's also a huge way for Europeans to go to the US, though I suspect demand will drop off a bit until 2028.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,535
    carnforth said:

    With the bonus that universities will consider you a "state school student" if you do A levels at a state school.
    Yep - it's why I'm trying to see the story here - it's being going on for at least a decade..
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,482
    MaxPB said:

    As an example of why UK/US routes are packed - we're in Italy at the moment and over half of the Americans we've met flew through London and stopped for three or four days on the way through or intend to do so on the way back. It's almost the default way Americans come to Europe, via London and I'd say that it's also a huge way for Europeans to go to the US, though I suspect demand will drop off a bit until 2028.

    Maybe visits to the UK will increase because people looking to go to an English-speaking country will choose us over them.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,825
    MaxPB said:

    As an example of why UK/US routes are packed - we're in Italy at the moment and over half of the Americans we've met flew through London and stopped for three or four days on the way through or intend to do so on the way back. It's almost the default way Americans come to Europe, via London and I'd say that it's also a huge way for Europeans to go to the US, though I suspect demand will drop off a bit until 2028.

    They'll start arriving in small boats soon.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,414
    eek said:

    Yep - it's why I'm trying to see the story here - it's being going on for at least a decade..
    This bit, it has happened before but it is happening even more this year.

    Some schools have reported applications doubling for Year 12 places.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,487
    ydoethur said:

    Judging from this thread flying Transatlantic will soon be like flying by private jet.
    If, god forbid, I had to fly to the US, I would seriously consider flying Aer Lingus from Dublin, in order to pass through US immigration in a friendly country. The worst they could to is transport me to Sligo.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,538
    Omnium said:

    I've been reading (oh god I hear!) about the Royal Navy. A big history by NAM Roger - I think it was @Carnyx that was also so engaged.

    It really is very good.

    Anyway, one of the things that has recently struck me as interesting is how the government/admiralty fiddled the tendering process so that shipbuilding capacity would be maintained. It's oligarchical stuff but really fascinating.

    So anyway I have a question to you - have we lost the ability to find the minds needed for an oligarchy?

    (All the Lords and Ladies, Damsels (fruity M'Lord) and Dames are just a waste of space.)

    Nick Rogers is great. The Wooden Walls is the best book about the Georgian navy I have ever read.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,794

    Maybe visits to the UK will increase because people looking to go to an English-speaking country will choose us over them.
    I don't think it's an us vs them issue, generally over the many years US travellers will go to London/UK + somewhere on the continent because it's so far for them to come they generally like to do two things. Scottish distillery tours are huge as well, so many questions about the best ones to do from Americans when they realise I'm British.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,902

    I do wonder if the UK's defence establishment is in denial about the importance of mass production and prefers weapons which are top end, extremely expensive and take years/decades to develop.
    Not entirely, but it's undeniably a huge problem.
    A counter example might be something like APKWS ?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,400
    Nigelb said:

    That's a very interesting question.

    A parallel is the career of Admiral Rickover.
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyman_G._Rickover
    Do you think the vacuum is there though? (I really struggle to think of anybody that I'd class as wise these days)
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,195
    Foxy said:

    Yes, but as a friend of mine who worked in Uganda under Idi Amin, and then Milton Obote remarked, it was safer under Amin. Under Amin you just didn't criticise the government or Army, under Obote the killings were much more random.

    So it's a matter of choosing lawful evil (China) over chaotic evil (Trumpistan).
    Uganda under Amin is the next stage on my future-USA scale.

    They came for the lawyers and the judges.
  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,534
    algarkirk said:

    I shall wait and see, but three points: A discussion of the insulin cases needs to look at the totality of the evidence on those counts, which is summarised in para 29 and 30 of the Court of Appeal judgment.

    There is, despite suggestions otherwise, an extensive series of threads to the totality of the evidence of murders and attempts of which the insulin evidence is only one. In reality the Letby case has to succeed on every count separately because each case is different.

    A perfectly possible, and I think probable, explanation for why Letby accepted that the 2 babies had been poisoned by insulin is that she had unique knowledge of the fact and make a mistake in failing to deny it. This is especially so as her counsel had challenged in cross examination the reliability of the insulin findings. She slipt up.

    https://www.judiciary.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/R-v-Letby-Final-Judgment-20240702.pdf
    The insulin cases are the only ones with hard evidence - everything else is circumstantial isn’t it? Nobody ever saw Letby injure a baby - they only ever saw her in the vicinity of a child that was having problems & put 2 + 2 together to make four (or possibly 17, depending on whether Letby is innocent or not!) The failure to install cameras in the ward when suspicions were originally raised does seem to be an egregious one in retrospect - management of the hospital have a lot to answer for, regardless of whether Letby is guilty or innocent.

    An equally plausible explanation for the Letby’s acceptance of insulin poisoning is simply that the prosecutor browbeat her into an admission that the test results must mean that the babies had been poisoned with insulin: any ordinary person faced with the test results as presented to the court would conclude the same thing. The fact that she should have refused to answer a question where she had no relevant expertise whatsoever but was cornered into doing so by the prosecution doesn’t make her guilty.
  • I do wonder if the UK's defence establishment is in denial about the importance of mass production and prefers weapons which are top mend, extremely expensive and take years/decades to develop.

    The MoD likes large, expensive projects that take decades and need extensive management as those provide the most scope for MoD staff to enjoy lengthy, secure careers.

    Ordering 5000 off-the-shelf drones from a company on some anonymous industrial estate needs very little work on the MoD's part, so is not optimal.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,535
    edited March 29

    This bit, it has happened before but it is happening even more this year.

    Some schools have reported applications doubling for Year 12 places.
    Again I'm surprised - the VAT changed just made people investigate options and discovered the benefits.

    The only surprise (to me) is that more parents weren't doing it...
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 6,202
    The MOD needs gamers to fly drones
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,400

    The MOD needs gamers to fly drones

    That's not going to work. Gamers are 24x7, the MoD is a day a week with religious holidays off.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,538

    Nick Rogers is great. The Wooden Walls is the best book about the Georgian navy I have ever read.
    Oops... The Wooden World
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,902
    .
    Omnium said:

    Do you think the vacuum is there though? (I really struggle to think of anybody that I'd class as wise these days)
    Given the way we've run down defence over the last decade or two - along with engineering and manufacturing in general - it would be something of a surprise if there were many who even fully grasped the issues ?
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