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Is inflation the key metric for winning the general election? – politicalbetting.com

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  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,080

    It would be helpful if the press routinely told us which crime had been broken when reporting a trial. Even that report just calls it "public order offences". I also don't see how the above would cause "alarm or distress" to Sir Keir but his family probably see it differently. Maybe we need a better method of protecting the pavement outside his home.
    It might be worth remembering that Starmer's wife and children are Jewish.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,457
    edited March 29

    On the bullying thing: many people who are bullied at school become bullies, either later in school, or later in life. "He was bullied!" is not an excuse for stuff done decades later.

    If he was bullied, then I'd expect him to have learnt a little of how it feels, and not to act the way he is at the moment.

    Acting like a bully.
    Nobody says being bullied is an excuse for bullying others, but it is certainly an explanation.

    There's also a related desperate desire for control, which most well-adjusted people don't have, at any rate to the same extent, but certainly explains why so many damaged people end up as CEOs, Presidents, policemen, etc. It's the flipside of massive personal insecurity.

    If you're affected, of course, it's tragic, but if you're not, it just looks pathetic.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,394
    Stereodog said:

    Absolutely. I work in a job where I have to deal with vexatious or abusive emails on a daily basis. With the time wasting ones (my most long running one is from someone who wants his claim to the throne acknowledged) I eventually tell the person that their emails will be read but not answered unless there is something material to add to their case. In the past week I have been called a scumbag and a "leach hanging off the public teat" (I rather liked that one). The only email I've ever reported to the police is one where the sender said they were going to stand outside a government department and start stabbing people.
    'Leech' is spelled thus in this context.
    With a job like that, if you didn't laugh, you'd cry. Sympathies.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,907
    ...
    Scott_xP said:

    WTAF???

    @NOELreports

    🇺🇸 Fox News host Jesse Watters: “We don’t need friends. If we have to burn some bridges with Denmark to take Greenland, so be it. We’re big boys. We dropped bombs on Japan, and now they’re our ally. America isn’t handcuffed by history.”

    https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1905927108712386791

    He is quite possibly the World's biggest w*nker.

    I actually quite enjoy his spinning Trump Emperor's New Clothes madness into a positive, whilst at the same time sneering at those who just see an orange man naked except for a diaper.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,538
    Stereodog said:

    Even if something needs investigation it doesn't need six police officers going to the house and trying to take them out in handcuffs. Whatever these people have done it should be immediately apparent to the school that they're not a terrorist cell
    I am told the police turned up mob handed to question a neighbour about a report she had made (and then, curiously, arrested her) so it seems routine. Maybe they could do three times as much work if they turned up in pairs.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,268
    kamski said:

    Section 42 of the Criminal Justice and Police Act 2001 covers the harassment of a person at their home address if a police officer suspects it is causing alarm or distress to the occupant.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx77ljll077o

    Three people have been found guilty of public order offences after a pro-Palestinian demonstration outside Sir Keir Starmer's house.

    Leonorah Ward, 21, from Leeds; Zosia Lewis, 23, from Newcastle-upon-Tyne; and Daniel Formentin, 24, also from Leeds, were also found guilty of breaching court bail, but had denied all the charges.
    A couple of more details here:

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/victoria-leeds-london-parliament-house-of-commons-b2565437.html

    District Judge Michael Snow said he could “understand why politicians are so fearful” given the “number of attacks on our democracy”.

    “The person who resides here is a senior politician,” he continued.

    “In the last two years, two Members of Parliament have been murdered.

    “Anyone in that situation being aware that there were protesters directly outside their home is likely to be caused distress.

    “It is laughable to assert to the contrary.”
    ...
    Delivering his sentence, Judge Snow said the trio had been directed to leave the premises but had “continued” regardless.


    I'm not a big fan of protesting at people's private homes, here's the law:

    https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2001/16/section/42

    If you protest outside someone's dwelling then you have to move on when told to by a police officer who believes you might be causing distress or alarm, if you don't want to be arrested or charged.

    Seems like the kind of power that could be abused, but I'm not convinced it was in this case?

  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 4,428
    edited March 29

    Morning All!
    Intelligence from Bangkok, courtesy of my son, who phoned half an hour of so ago.
    Everything seems back to normal now, apart from in the area of the collapsed building. His daughter's school was disrupted; lessons stopped and as city transport was in a mess, it took his two daughters ages to get home. Suvarnabhumi, the main Bangkok Airport was briefly closed and he was half an hour late leaving Taiwan. One of his daughters has texted Mrs C to say that some of her friends who live in apartment blocks have cracked walls but no-one seems to be moving out, at least at the moment.

    Do we know how long it took for the tremors to go from Mandalay to Bangkok?

    I ask because the Sky News reporter was stirring up trouble about Bangkok not receiving a warning..

    Sorry I had to edit spelling..
    :blush:
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,538
    ydoethur said:

    It might be worth remembering that Starmer's wife and children are Jewish.
    We are not told what was on the banner, so we can't make our own judgment about whether it was offensive or not. Presumably it didn't pass the test for anti-semitism or they would have been charged with a hate crime. Protesting against the actions of a sovereign state should not be a crime.
  • StereodogStereodog Posts: 797

    'Leech' is spelled thus in this context.
    With a job like that, if you didn't laugh, you'd cry. Sympathies.
    It was a direct quote 😉. It sounds snobbish but doing a public facing job doesn't give you a good impression of the education system.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,907
    edited March 29

    Japan has been selling tens of billions of US treasury bonds in recent months.

    What if the appetite for competitvely priced US debt is no longer out there?

    Payback for Hiroshima and Nagasaki?*

    Revenge is a dish best served cold. Very cold!

    *( See Jesse Watters's earlier remarks re: " we bombed Japan and now they are our allies".)
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,268

    We are not told what was on the banner, so we can't make our own judgment about whether it was offensive or not. Presumably it didn't pass the test for anti-semitism or they would have been charged with a hate crime. Protesting against the actions of a sovereign state should not be a crime.
    It was a crime because they of where they were protesting, and not leaving when asked to by a police officer. It had nothing to do AFAIK with what they were protesting about
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,080
    edited March 29

    We are not told what was on the banner, so we can't make our own judgment about whether it was offensive or not. Presumably it didn't pass the test for anti-semitism or they would have been charged with a hate crime. Protesting against the actions of a sovereign state should not be a crime.
    Why would they pick Starmer's house? It's not like he could do much about it. He wasn't even PM at that stage.

    The whole case seems to be 'we will protest' (fair enough) 'we will protest to the wrong person' (silly, but not a crime) 'we will ignore the police when ordered to leave' (stupid, and illegal as the police can make that decision) 'we are martyrs for free speech' (not buying it).

    I can understand in this case that the protest being pro-Palestinian which movement has contained some pretty ugly anti-Semitic traits could be especially intimidating to a household with Jews in it.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,685
    edited March 29

    ...

    He is quite possibly the World's biggest w*nker.

    I actually quite enjoy his spinning Trump Emperor's New Clothes madness into a positive, whilst at the same time sneering at those who just see an orange man naked except for a diaper.
    The wankerishness has a long and illustrious history in US politics. The neocons regularly expressed similar sentiments towards Europeans who weren’t 100% behind them during the Iraq invasion.

    ETA: people in glass houses though…several British politicians and multiple British journalists said some extremely insulting things about European neighbours in the period from 2016 to 2021.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,394

    Do we know how long it took for the tremors to go from Mandalay to Bangkok?

    I ask because the Sky News reporter was stirring up trouble about Bangkok not receiving a warning..

    Sorry I had to edit spelling..
    :blush:
    I don't, and I haven't seen anything which might give a clue.

    Which spelling? And we both missed something else 'hour of so ago'!
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,268
    Have we had this yet?

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn8r87z8vl0o

    A top vaccine official at the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) was forced out of his job, US media reports.

    Peter Marks offered his letter of resignation to Health and Human Services (HHS) officials on Friday, after being given a choice between resigning or being fired.

    "It has become clear that truth and transparency are not desired by the Secretary, but rather he wishes subservient confirmation of his misinformation and lies," Mr Marks wrote in a resignation letter, obtained by multiple US media outlets, referring to the agency's new leader Robert F Kennedy Jr.

    Mr Marks was among the healthcare professionals who helped develop Covid-19 vaccines in the first Trump administration.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,907
    Do we all think that whatever the topic header and domestic strife in the UK every PB thread circa 1935 would quickly move to discussing Hitler insanity?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,867
    Things might get a bit pear shaped in the US pharma industry.

    Peter Marks pushed out of FDA by RFK Jr.

    As much as I’ve been critical of some of his approval decisions, Marks’ forced exit spells doom for the FDA.

    This is bad, folks. Really bad.

    Biotech and pharma are about to enter the darkest of places.

    https://x.com/adamfeuerstein/status/1905794129277210997

    Feuerstein is a pretty shrewd industry journalist.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,394
    Stereodog said:

    It was a direct quote 😉. It sounds snobbish but doing a public facing job doesn't give you a good impression of the education system.
    I used to supply leeches. And yes, back in the day I used to get misspelled requests from the public.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,685
    Nigelb said:

    Things might get a bit pear shaped in the US pharma industry.

    Peter Marks pushed out of FDA by RFK Jr.

    As much as I’ve been critical of some of his approval decisions, Marks’ forced exit spells doom for the FDA.

    This is bad, folks. Really bad.

    Biotech and pharma are about to enter the darkest of places.

    https://x.com/adamfeuerstein/status/1905794129277210997

    Feuerstein is a pretty shrewd industry journalist.

    Time for some well targeted UK R&D grants.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,456

    Do we all think that whatever the topic header and domestic strife in the UK every PB thread circa 1935 would quickly move to discussing Hitler insanity?

    @Strandjunker

    Dear American citizens, whatever you wish more German citizens would have done in 1933, do that now.

    https://x.com/Strandjunker/status/1905379784978293203

    https://x.com/TheRickyDavila/status/1905492009831596143
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,080

    Do we all think that whatever the topic header and domestic strife in the UK every PB thread circa 1935 would quickly move to discussing Hitler insanity?

    Hitler wasn't directly threatening British security in 1935, or at least, didn't appear to be. Regardless of his campaigns of mass murder and racial intimidation it is unlikely most people had him on the radar as a serious threat. He even failed in his first attempt at seizing Austria in 1934.

    The parallel with 1936 after the reoccupation of the Rhineland and the forming of the Rome-Berlin axis would be closer.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 4,428

    I don't, and I haven't seen anything which might give a clue.

    Which spelling? And we both missed something else 'hour of so ago'!
    Bangcock

  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,268

    We are not told what was on the banner, so we can't make our own judgment about whether it was offensive or not. Presumably it didn't pass the test for anti-semitism or they would have been charged with a hate crime. Protesting against the actions of a sovereign state should not be a crime.

    a banner outside the London property that read, “Starmer stop the killing”, surrounded by red handprints
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,394

    Bangcock

    Freudian, but I can't see where I did it.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,538
    kamski said:


    a banner outside the London property that read, “Starmer stop the killing”, surrounded by red handprints
    Here I admit I didn't scroll down far enough, although that banner is clearly not offensive
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 4,428

    Freudian, but I can't see where I did it.
    No, it was my spelling mistake. I wouldn't dream of editing other people's posts.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,066
    TimS said:

    Time for some well targeted UK R&D grants.
    Yep. Huge growth opportunity and we already have strong pharma R&D.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,907
    edited March 29
    ydoethur said:

    Hitler wasn't directly threatening British security in 1935, or at least, didn't appear to be. Regardless of his campaigns of mass murder and racial intimidation it is unlikely most people had him on the radar as a serious threat. He even failed in his first attempt at seizing Austria in 1934.

    The parallel with 1936 after the reoccupation of the Rhineland and the forming of the Rome-Berlin axis would be closer.
    10/10 for pedantry. Should I be looking out for. Washington -Moscow axis? Oh wait, in all but signed treaty, I think I am seeing it now.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,385
    edited March 29
    Fishing said:

    Nobody says being bullied is an excuse for bullying others, but it is certainly an explanation.

    There's also a related desperate desire for control, which most well-adjusted people don't have, at any rate to the same extent, but certainly explains why so many damaged people end up as CEOs, Presidents, policemen, etc. It's the flipside of massive personal insecurity.

    If you're affected, of course, it's tragic, but if you're not, it just looks pathetic.
    I guess it is different things for different people. I have certainly heard it said that people who are bullied sometimes become bullies as a consequence, but is it true? I would anticipate it should have the opposite effect.

    I was never bullied so I don't know, but as a child I was hit by my father for being naughty and swore I would never do that to my children. I put it down to it being more common in those days (50s & 60s), although since then I have found out that it didn't happen to others of my age and unlike others I was never punished at school, whereas many of my friends were (cane, slipper, ruler, etc), so I couldn't have been that awful as a kid.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,264
    edited March 29
    Taz said:

    Why ?

    From the reporting this seems to be little more than the school getting annoyed at pushy parents and using the Police against them. There was no crime and no evidence of a crime.
    As I said it's nothing obvious. Just my view. He's articulate and well rehearsed. Note the two camera angles and teleprompter. His mini admissions also told of someone who knew how to appear an 'honest John'. His self righteousness felt creepy and I could imagine him being a complete nightmare for the school. But I'm sure that'll be a minority view
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,080

    Here I admit I didn't scroll down far enough, although that banner is clearly not offensive
    I don't agree actually. It implies he had the power to do something about it, which he didn't (and doesn't even now, for the matter of that) and therefore also implies he was guilty of killing people.

    Especially since they put a load of children's shoes outside implying he was killing children.

    That's pretty offensive. More stupid, of course, and they are clearly extremely stupid since they actually admitted in court without realising it that they intended to be intimidating by admitting it could be distressing,* but still offensive.

    *Formentin, refusing to say it was intimidating, was instead led to say 'I think it could be seen as distressing.'
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,591
    Foxy said:

    I think the government do care about the subject of protests, and enforce the law unequally.
    You’re right of course. Jews are allowed to be abused while pro-Gaza protestors get away with lots
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,907
    Nigelb said:

    Things might get a bit pear shaped in the US pharma industry.

    Peter Marks pushed out of FDA by RFK Jr.

    As much as I’ve been critical of some of his approval decisions, Marks’ forced exit spells doom for the FDA.

    This is bad, folks. Really bad.

    Biotech and pharma are about to enter the darkest of places.

    https://x.com/adamfeuerstein/status/1905794129277210997

    Feuerstein is a pretty shrewd industry journalist.

    Still, on the upside the Sacklur's can provide substantially more funding for high dollar arts projects.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,456

    Here I admit I didn't scroll down far enough, although that banner is clearly not offensive
    Not offensive to suggest that Starmer has blood on his hands?
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,591
    rkrkrk said:

    Disgraceful and particularly bizarre that we are denying the right of people to peacefully
    protest other countries' policies.
    That’s exactly the point.

    They aren’t planning a *peaceful* protest
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,907

    Not offensive to suggest that Starmer has blood on his hands?
    50,000 dead Gazans might endorse that message.

    No smoke, no fire and Jonathan Ashworth would still be an MP if the message didn't resonate.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,385
    @Fishing Interesting posts from you today. It is always nice to find common agreement across the political spectrum. I found the same often with @Sandpit .
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,394

    No, it was my spelling mistake. I wouldn't dream of editing other people's posts.
    Didn't appear in the final post. And no-one uses the city's proper name, anyway. Far too long.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,264
    Scott_xP said:

    WTAF???

    @NOELreports

    🇺🇸 Fox News host Jesse Watters: “We don’t need friends. If we have to burn some bridges with Denmark to take Greenland, so be it. We’re big boys. We dropped bombs on Japan, and now they’re our ally. America isn’t handcuffed by history.”

    https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1905927108712386791

    Time to batten down the hatches. If our principal ally has gone rogue we neen a new one. China or the EU. I'd prefer either to Trump's America
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,667
    kjh said:



    I guess it is different things for different people. I have certainly heard it said that people who are bullied sometimes become bullies as a consequence, but is it true? I would anticipate it should have the opposite effect.

    I was never bullied so I don't know, but as a child I was hit by my father for being naughty and swore I would never do that to my children. I put it down to it being more common in those days (50s & 60s), although since then I have found out that it didn't happen to others of my age and unlike others I was never punished at school, whereas many of my friends were (cane, slipper, ruler, etc), so I couldn't have been that awful as a kid.

    Sympathies! It's very individual, as you say. I never experienced bullying against myself, and intervened on the one occasion I saw it in school (I was tall and strong so the bully was easily deterred), so I've no real idea, but I imagine people react differently. The difference from the 50s/60s is that it's now seen as bad parenting, whereas back then it seems to have been seen as a normal choice, far from universal but nothing out of the ordinary.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,591
    malcolmg said:

    why has council tax soared if they got rid of a million duffers. The clowns could not run a bath.
    Mainly social care, but also SEN

    Both obligations committed to by central government and then handed off to their local colleagues without new funding streams
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,080
    edited March 29
    Roger said:

    Time to batten down the hatches. If our principal ally has gone rogue we neen a new one. China or the EU. I'd prefer either to Trump's America
    You can't despise Trump more than I do, but to suggest what America under Trump is doing is as bad as what China is doing to the Uighers and Tibetans, or indeed the people of Hong Kong, is simply nonsensical. Cosying up to China to distance ourselves from America would be like trying to bargain with a rattlesnake to take on an enormous blundering elephant.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,591

    I do wonder what crime was broken by flying a banner and leaving shoes on the pavement. Littering?
    They tend to be stricter about protesting outside politicians homes especially where they have kids
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,821
    Just listened to the Today podcast where Nick and Amol interview Dr James Orr, who is Vance's intellectual apologist in the UK. Extraordinary in two ways: Orr, who is bright and clever was clearly delusional about his friend and what is occurring as USA descends into a police state; and the interviewers, by asking several long questions at a time allowed him to evade all hard issues, which Orr did outstandingly well.

    Nothing about Orr's analysis made sense of the Trumpian/Vance wish to absorb friendly sovereign territory - Canada and Greenland - into the USA, and Orr was allowed to evade the issue, and many others.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,612

    That’s exactly the point.

    They aren’t planning a *peaceful* protest
    Well violent protest should not be allowed. Perhaps I've been too hasty but my understanding of the quaker movement is that they do lots of silent sitting down.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,591

    It would be helpful if the press routinely told us which crime had been broken when reporting a trial. Even that report just calls it "public order offences". I also don't see how the above would cause "alarm or distress" to Sir Keir but his family probably see it differently. Maybe we need a better method of protecting the pavement outside his home.
    The alternative is barricading the street which seems to me to be a worse outcome for the general public
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,685

    Yep. Huge growth opportunity and we already have strong pharma R&D.
    Some heroically optimistic Trump economic upsides for Europe:

    - cheap avocados and tequila from Mexico, strong bread flour, maple syrup and heavy crude from Canada
    - brain drain of academics from US universities (and more pertinently a slowdown in the brain drain to US universities)
    - increased capital investment from Canadian multinationals and their huge pension funds into European assets
    - growing European defence industry
    - Lower oil prices, and suppressed inflation if USD weakens and US demand softens
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,264

    50,000 dead Gazans might endorse that message.

    No smoke, no fire and Jonathan Ashworth would still be an MP if the message didn't resonate.
    It's extraordinary what'll outerage Sir Keir but not the killing of 50,000 people or 35,000 women and children or even the killing of more people than were killed on October 7th just the last week during a ceasefire
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,821
    kjh said:

    I guess it is different things for different people. I have certainly heard it said that people who are bullied sometimes become bullies as a consequence, but is it true? I would anticipate it should have the opposite effect.

    I was never bullied so I don't know, but as a child I was hit by my father for being naughty and swore I would never do that to my children. I put it down to it being more common in those days (50s & 60s), although since then I have found out that it didn't happen to others of my age and unlike others I was never punished at school, whereas many of my friends were (cane, slipper, ruler, etc), so I couldn't have been that awful as a kid.
    People are not rational. Auden gets it right: 'Those to whom evil is done do evil in return'. So a significant proportion of sex offenders are themselves victims of the same abuse.

    Breaking the cycle is critical, which is why unpopular things like religion (and the option of redemption, transformation and forgiveness), rehabilitation (touching unknown depths, the opposite of our prison system), ego reduction (mindfulness) and Greek drama (it's all in the Oresteian trilogy 2400 years ago) all continue to matter.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,867
    TimS said:

    Time for some well targeted UK R&D grants.
    Chaos in their drugs market (our industry's biggest export earner) will hurt us too, nonetheless.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,867
    ydoethur said:

    You can't despise Trump more than I do, but to suggest what America under Trump is doing is as bad as what China is doing to the Uighers and Tibetans, or indeed the people of Hong Kong, is simply nonsensical. Cosying up to China to distance ourselves from America would be like trying to bargain with a rattlesnake to take on an enormous blundering elephant.
    We can't disengage from either, obviously, and will continue to deal with both.
    It's rather that our relationship with the US is being rapidly redefined, and the end state is unclear.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,685
    Nigelb said:

    Chaos in their drugs market (our industry's biggest export earner) will hurt us too, nonetheless.
    This whole US administration is potentially a disaster for Ireland. Not just potential duties on medicines, but any wider retrenchment of US FDI will massively disproportionately hit Irish GDP.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,394
    edited March 29
    Nigelb said:

    We can't disengage from either, obviously, and will continue to deal with both.
    It's rather that our relationship with the US is being rapidly redefined, and the end state is unclear.
    At least with the US there's a fighting chance that things will return to something the previous normal in four years time. There's also a good chance that in two years time Trump will no longer have a compliant Congress.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,685
    Just looked at the partial solar eclipse. Through 2 pairs of sunglasses, which probably wasn’t enough to spare me irreparable long term retinal damage, but hey ho.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,757
    TimS said:

    Just looked at the partial solar eclipse. Through 2 pairs of sunglasses, which probably wasn’t enough to spare me irreparable long term retinal damage, but hey ho.

    Clear view here but not very impressive.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,286
    A light elevenses in Tashkent, Uzbekistan


  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,440
    ..
    Taz said:
    I don't mind the digger. I am a little perturbed by the stuff on policy (or lack of it) coming out of Reform and the seeming focus on it as a money-making exercise. I don't actually mind people getting rich, but I want their hustles to be bound into the country as a whole prospering. I'm keeping an open mind for the moment.

    Kemi has impressed me a little recently (I know) so I'm hoping that she actually does come up with her promised 'plan' and that that becomes the basis for the new Government's programme with Nige just doing Reformy showboating on top.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,591

    I don't, and I haven't seen anything which might give a clue.

    Which spelling? And we
    both missed something else 'hour of so ago'!
    Google tells me that P waves travel at 4-8km/s

    I think someone said that Bangkok was 600 miles from Mandalay (say 1000 km).

    So 2 - 4 minutes - not getting a warning to the public in time is understandable
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,842
    Stereodog said:

    It was a direct quote 😉. It sounds snobbish but doing a public facing job doesn't give you a good impression of the education system.
    Old Viz joke: EdSec Michael Gove complained that 90 per cent of emails he received misspelled the word ‘bellend’.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,927
    TimS said:

    There is good inflation and bad inflation. That which comes from increased incomes and overheating demand, and that which comes from higher global commodity prices.

    The former can be uncomfortable for economists but not bad for working age voters, and quite handy for inter generational equity. The latter - which we had a bout of in 2022 and 23 - is bad for everyone.

    We could do with some wage and service sector inflation. It would help to correct the massive wealth transfers of the last decade from working to retired people, encourage business investment in automation, and encourage consumer spending.

    Bring back boom and bust!

    Rachel's on it. Especially the latter.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,927
    Foxy said:

    Clear view here but not very impressive.
    Very overcast and dull here. Like the rest of the time tbh.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,440
    TimS said:

    Some heroically optimistic Trump economic upsides for Europe:

    - cheap avocados and tequila from Mexico, strong bread flour, maple syrup and heavy crude from Canada
    - brain drain of academics from US universities (and more pertinently a slowdown in the brain drain to US universities)
    - increased capital investment from Canadian multinationals and their huge pension funds into European assets
    - growing European defence industry
    - Lower oil prices, and suppressed inflation if USD weakens and US demand softens
    Canadian pension funds are heavily invested in Thames Water afaicr, which must be one of the reasons why the company isn't being allowed to collapse as it should be. I don't really want a load of Canadian 'too important to fail' investment in British assets.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,591
    TimS said:

    Time for some well targeted UK R&D grants.
    The issue is the US is 50% of revenues and 70% gross profit for Pharma. Without the market the economics are tough.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,440
    DavidL said:

    Rachel's on it. Especially the latter.
    Is this some kind of a bust?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,066
    TimS said:

    Some heroically optimistic Trump economic upsides for Europe:

    - cheap avocados and tequila from Mexico, strong bread flour, maple syrup and heavy crude from Canada
    - brain drain of academics from US universities (and more pertinently a slowdown in the brain drain to US universities)
    - increased capital investment from Canadian multinationals and their huge pension funds into European assets
    - growing European defence industry
    - Lower oil prices, and suppressed inflation if USD weakens and US demand softens
    Disney Land Paris gets surge of visitors as no one in the right mind would travel to Florida right now.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,927

    Suspect it boils down to whether the month or the money runs out first. Quite a lot of which is out of the government's hands.

    To have the month run out before the money shows an incredible lack of imagination.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,440

    Old Viz joke: EdSec Michael Gove complained that 90 per cent of emails he received misspelled the word ‘bellend’.
    Would have been even better if they'd spelled 'teat' as 'teet'.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,927

    Is this some kind of a bust?
    Not quite yet but I am a lot more pessimistic than her friends in the OBR. It might even start in America this time.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,907
    ydoethur said:

    You can't despise Trump more than I do, but to suggest what America under Trump is doing is as bad as what China is doing to the Uighers and Tibetans, or indeed the people of Hong Kong, is simply nonsensical. Cosying up to China to distance ourselves from America would be like trying to bargain with a rattlesnake to take on an enormous blundering elephant.
    China have had since 1949 to fine tune their oppressive state violence. Trump has had his catch up programme in overdrive for the last two months, and I'd say for a wannabe expansionist dictatorial tyrant it's an A* for effort.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,927
    TimS said:

    This whole US administration is potentially a disaster for Ireland. Not just potential duties on medicines, but any wider retrenchment of US FDI will massively disproportionately hit Irish GDP.
    ....shrug.....
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,286
    DavidL said:

    Very overcast and dull here. Like the rest of the time tbh.
    Pure cloudless skies and spring blossom in Tashkent. However I am now suffering double jet lag from Uruguay-UK-Uzbekistan in 3 days so I can barely keep my eyes open. Might do Uganda tomorrow
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,559
    Roger said:

    As I said it's nothing obvious. Just my view. He's articulate and well rehearsed. Note the two camera angles and teleprompter. His mini admissions also told of someone who knew how to appear an 'honest John'. His self righteousness felt creepy and I could imagine him being a complete nightmare for the school. But I'm sure that'll be a minority view
    Caught his soft-ball interview on Times Radio and my instant reaction was 'why is this lying liar lying to me?'
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,264
    ydoethur said:

    You can't despise Trump more than I do, but to suggest what America under Trump is doing is as bad as what China is doing to the Uighers and Tibetans, or indeed the people of Hong Kong, is simply nonsensical. Cosying up to China to distance ourselves from America would be like trying to bargain with a rattlesnake to take on an enormous blundering elephant.
    Perhaps a better analogy is a rattlesnake living quietly resting under a rock or an out of control elephant with a red hot poker shoved up its bum
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,591
    rkrkrk said:

    Well violent protest should not be allowed. Perhaps I've been too hasty but my
    understanding of the quaker movement is that they do lots of silent sitting down.
    These weren’t Quakers. They had just rented a room from them
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,394

    Google tells me that P waves travel at 4-8km/s

    I think someone said that Bangkok was 600 miles from Mandalay (say 1000 km).

    So 2 - 4 minutes - not getting a warning to the public in time is understandable
    I think there's some sort of inquiry due as to why that public (almost) building in North Bangkok fell the way it did.
    After all, it wasn't the tallest building the city.
    Incidentally I wouldn't have liked to be up at the top of the tallest. There's a glass floor out over the street, 1000 feet below, which one can walk on. And several buildings have walkways at quite high levels between neighbours.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,440
    Nigelb said:

    We can't disengage from either, obviously, and will continue to deal with both.
    It's rather that our relationship with the US is being rapidly redefined, and the end state is unclear.
    I support your thoughts about gaining more autonomy from the US (of course), which is an essential project, though clearly a long term one. However, it's also very clear to me that yours is a temporary political aversion based on Trump and the MAGA right, and that as soon as another plausible Democrat or even a Neocon Republican gets in the door, your desire for British autonomy will evaporate till the next time.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,127
    edited March 29
    Talking of inflation, the million pounds in Who Wants To Be A Millionaire when it first started in 1998 would be worth about £524,000 today, and the prize would need to be around £1,905,000 to be worth the same today as it was then.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,591

    That's the thing with council tax. A bug chunk of it gets spent on a minority of residents. Leaving a majority thinking that they get charged a fortune but see little in return.
    May be we should have a direct per capita charge that covers the cost of local services. Some kind of community charge?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,440
    DavidL said:

    Not quite yet but I am a lot more pessimistic than her friends in the OBR. It might even start in America this time.
    :lol:

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=u44MXP_C3rs
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,264
    OT. Bournmouth 10/1 for the cup sounds reasonable......
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,591

    Disney Land Paris gets surge of visitors
    as no one in the right mind would travel to Florida right now.
    I have to go to California next week.

    If you don’t hear from me please call the foreign office.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,907
    Roger said:

    Perhaps a better analogy is a rattlesnake living quietly resting under a rock or an out of control elephant with a red hot poker shoved up its bum
    Or at the next election and a two horse race between Farage and Jenrick, who would I vote for with a gun to my head? Well, probably Farage, as I don't believe British politics has seen anyone quite so evil ( Braverman excepted, which goes without saying) since Alan B'Stard.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,331
    DavidL said:

    ....shrug.....
    Into every life, a little rain must fall.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,394
    Sean_F said:

    Into every life, a little rain must fall.
    And it does in Ireland.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,080
    Roger said:

    Perhaps a better analogy is a rattlesnake living quietly resting under a rock or an out of control elephant with a red hot poker shoved up its bum
    You think China is 'resting quietly under a rock?' In what way?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,331
    edited March 29
    algarkirk said:

    People are not rational. Auden gets it right: 'Those to whom evil is done do evil in return'. So a significant proportion of sex offenders are themselves victims of the same abuse.

    Breaking the cycle is critical, which is why unpopular things like religion (and the option of redemption, transformation and forgiveness), rehabilitation (touching unknown depths, the opposite of our prison system), ego reduction (mindfulness) and Greek drama (it's all in the Oresteian trilogy 2400 years ago) all continue to matter.
    I’d have thought it very common for people who are bullied, to internalise that you’re either the one giving the beating, or the one taking it.

    Russia is a good example of a society where people who are bullied by superiors take it out on their inferiors.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,359

    That's a bit Minority Report isn't it? Unless he's shared his plans.
    It’s not like Minority Report. If someone is planning to murder their spouse, that is already a crime.

    But more importantly, the point of Minority Report is that people were arrested before they had even thought of committing a crime.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,066

    I have to go to California next week.

    If you don’t hear from me please call the foreign office.
    Good luck.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,591
    ydoethur said:

    You think China is 'resting quietly under a rock?' In what way?
    The bathing platform below Eden Roc maybe?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,286
    They just took us to see the “world’s oldest Koran” which is kept here in Tashkent having been brought here circuitously by various tyrants, Tamerlaines and tsars

    However I grew suspicious. Is this really the oldest Koran in the world? I checked. It isn’t. The real location of the oldest piece of any known Koran is actually a mild mind boggler

    Without googling does any PBer know? It’s a good pub quiz question
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,080
    Leon said:

    They just took us to see the “world’s oldest Koran” which is kept here in Tashkent having been brought here circuitously by various tyrants, Tamerlaines and tsars

    However I grew suspicious. Is this really the oldest Koran in the world? I checked. It isn’t. The real location of the oldest piece of any known Koran is actually a mild mind boggler

    Without googling does any PBer know? It’s a good pub quiz question

    There was one in Serbia for a very long time, not sure if it's still there.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,286
    ydoethur said:

    There was one in Serbia for a very long time, not sure if it's still there.
    No. Weirder than that
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,907

    It’s not like Minority Report. If someone is planning to murder their spouse, that is already a crime.

    But more importantly, the point of Minority Report is that people were arrested before they had even thought of committing a crime.
    How did @Stillwaters know his neighbour was planning to murder his wife before rifling through his Amazon parcels? Presumably he had an inkling but no evidence. Prior to the Amazon raid he wasn't in a position to tell the Feds, now he is, although the authorities might say "duct tape and a brace of Samurai swords are no guarantee of intent". Likewise a fellow in the Tate wearing an orange Tyveck suit and carrying a flask of Heinz 57 varieties isn't necessarily "going equipped", he might be planning a light liquid lunch. So back to our chaps at the Friends Meeting House...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,080
    edited March 29
    Leon said:

    No. Weirder than that
    Ok, having googled it, but not giving the game away, I will admit I would not have guessed that.

    And also, isn't it a good job that the funder of the expeditions wasn't involved in alcohol?
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,591
    Leon said:

    They just took us to see the “world’s oldest Koran” which is kept here in Tashkent having been brought here circuitously by various tyrants, Tamerlaines and tsars

    However I grew suspicious. Is this really the oldest Koran in the world? I checked. It isn’t. The real location of the oldest piece of any known Koran is actually a mild mind boggler

    Without googling does any PBer know? It’s a good pub quiz question

    In the museum that the Green family built? DC?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,907
    edited March 29

    In the museum that the Green family built? DC?
    Hasn't all their stuff been repatriated to Iraq?

    N.B. Oh bollocks, I've been drawn into one of Leon's threads within a thread. Good catch Leon, you reeled me in unawares!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,286

    In the museum that the Green family built? DC?
    No. Even weirder
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