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Is inflation the key metric for winning the general election? – politicalbetting.com
Is inflation the key metric for winning the general election? – politicalbetting.com
When Rishi Sunak says he aims to halve inflation, British voters think he aims to get… (7 June)Prices to decrease 47%Prices to increase more slowly 42%Don't know 11% pic.twitter.com/0llokiJO2Q
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Musk is deflated, of course, and apparently he's upset as well.
Your link provides very little detail.
https://x.com/borisjohnson/status/1905745383466344632?s=46&t=fJymV-V84rexmlQMLXHHJQ
The former can be uncomfortable for economists but not bad for working age voters, and quite handy for inter generational equity. The latter - which we had a bout of in 2022 and 23 - is bad for everyone.
We could do with some wage and service sector inflation. It would help to correct the massive wealth transfers of the last decade from working to retired people, encourage business investment in automation, and encourage consumer spending.
Bring back boom and bust!
For political purposes, economic statistics are just about predicting how likely that is.
It was a meeting of the group "Youth Demand" who rented a room at the Meeting House. They are protesting for a boycott of Israel and for climate action.
https://youthdemand.org/
https://x.com/c_kletzer/status/1905888893737590924?t=0ax4E2LsJ9FxEAZG7gXwuA&s=19
In direct violation of the “just stop oil” legislation?
Sounds like they were arrested while planning a crime rather than exercising their free speech.
And they weren’t Quakers about their worship, they had just rented a meeting room.
While the police may have been heavy handed it does seem like there could potentially be a case to answer on harassment
I'm not sure what the law would be that was used to justify the police breaking down the door (rather than knock or ring the bell) of a Quaker Meeting House.
"The Metropolitan Police said the individuals were detained on suspicion of conspiracy to cause a public nuisance after officers raided a welcome talk at the Quaker Meeting House at 7.30pm on Thursday."
https://www.jewishnews.co.uk/youth-activists-arrested-over-plan-to-shut-down-london-in-anti-israel-campaign/
That looks weak - it was a Welcome meeting, not a training for a specific event meeting. If they just keep quiet, the police may struggle to demonstrate evidence of mens rea - unless they are fishing.
This is from their website - and is not fine. Other citizens have the right to use the roads and other state facilities. You can protest and make your point, but not actively seek to prevent others going about their lawful business.
In April, Youth Demand will shut London down with swarming road-blocks day after day after day.
https://youthdemand.org/take-action/
Planning to obstruct or damage infrastructure is another.
I speak as one who helped plan protests (of the former type) when at university. Generally for causes I opposed.
*I think it was Wellington who said that any damn fool could get 10,000 people into Hyde Park. But it would take a general to get them out, again.
Freeloading, moi? Although one could suggest he is highly qualified to write on the subject.
What sort of right to protest is that?
If protesters commit crimes of criminal damage then arrest them. Not for thought crime.
The mum locked up is a producer for Times Radio.
The Times article is quite good and detailed (I commend the journo):
https://archive.is/20250328191932/https://www.thetimes.com/article/d8c8566b-99b1-45c6-814b-008042d74a3a
Interview with the dad:
https://x.com/timesradio/status/1905693691416883419
It is a far more credible complaint imo that Allison Pearson's. I'd call it afaics that it was an acting head who they had been slightly rude about ("control freak" - imo accurate from the accounts) in a parents' group on Whatapp, who put in an over-juicy complaint and so the police went in feet first and mob handed.
The one negative point I can see for the parents is that the Whatsapp group was a little large with 1.2 million members. And perhaps initially emailing all the Governors when he did not get a reply was a bit OTT.
I think the arrest may have been unnecessary - chap said he would quite happily have toddled along to the station for an interview.
The authorities are trying to let it lie. I don't think it will.
For example some people want higher interest rates or house prices while other want lower.
So its impossible to please everyone.
Also those people thinking 'a strong pound' might be a good thing as it means a penny off petrol prices without realising it also means thousands off their pension funds.
The new law mean the police can prohibit a protest if it's too noisy - does that include trying to drown out the US national anthem? This is the real free speech issue in the UK right now.
In a goods / commodities inflation spiral you just drain wealth and opportunity out of the country into the hands of large scale primary producers.
Not one to try in Scotland, though. They'd pull in 8365 policemen from somewhere for a moon.
But I am always a bit suspicious of reports largely based on one side of the story (see immigration stories in the daily mail & guardian)
Planning a crime is a crime in UK law. Has been since forever.
I could be a really interesting one - is sharing just the name of someone with 1.2 million people worse than sharing the address and phone number of someone with 120 people? In terms of stimulated harrassment, I would guess the former is much worse.
Everything seems depressing at the moment. If somebody cropped up who seemed able to offer some genuine, practicable solutions, it seems depressingly likely it would be a false hope.
But I hope you all have a good day!
On what's reported so far, it could either be a reasonable response, or a gross overreaction.
Modern communication has made the job of balancing the right to protest, and the maintenance of public order a far harder task than it used to be.
And a school blocking emails from a parent is a plan with many drawbacks. If each of those emails needed a considered reply, that's going to take more management time than a primary school has going spare.
The need for it doesn't go away, though.
The 1.2m was quoted by the school in a letter to the parents. Mistake on my part - 1.2m refers to a Facebook group in the letter shown in vid here:
https://x.com/timesradio/status/1905693691416883419
Only protests that the government and police approve of are now legal.
On the goods inflation front we may get a bit of a benefit from US tariffs on Canada and Mexico if that diverts agri products (ones we can’t grow here) into the European market.
Tougher Sentances for Geography Teachers
A Right Royal Kick up the Prince's Backside
He’s an acquaintance of a friend so I’ll ask my friend to dig for a bit more on this.
The government and the police don’t care about the *subject* of the protest
They do care about ensuring the correct safety and other procedures are followed including pre-notification.
That is a reasonable balance between the rights of the uninvolved citizen and the right to protest.
It’s just a different form of not having the right to shout “fire” in a crossed theatre
https://x.com/timesradio/status/1905693691416883419
By his account the arresting and interviewing officers had nothing more than a sketchy written complaint, and no evidence of the alleged crimes whatsoever.
What if the appetite for competitvely priced US debt is no longer out there?
We have Canada voting on April 28th and Australia voting on May 3rd so the new CANZUK alliance might look very different by early May (or it might not as you could easily imagine Carney keeping the Liberals in power and Albanese getting back with Independent help in Canberra).
Some betting opportunities to consider perhaps next month?
On topic, almost all elections are "pocket book" elections inasmuch as how people "feel" economically is a big factor around how they vote. The decisive rejections of Government aren't usually because of a belief the Opposition would do much better but more a perception they couldn't do any worse.
As we now find in many instances they can and do, the option is either to "get the other lot back in" (which is your only option in a rigid 2-party system) or to look elsewhere at the coterie of snake oil salespeople on both and neither extreme (a bit cynical perhaps).
I've raised this many times on here but there still seems to be no practical solution to the issues of stagnant growth and ambient inflation (I seem to recall the UK economy was particularly prone to stubborn inflation). Getting energy prices and council tax rises back to somewhere in the neighbourhood of actual CPI or RPI inflation would be a good start. The notion our energy prices go up so the customers in the countries which own our energy suppliers can see theirs go down (or not rise as much) is a huge bone of contention.
As for local Government finance, notwithstanding the unnecessary costs of pointless re-organisations, the issues of social care, SEN and temporary accommodation costs all remain unresolved - Newham's 8.9% rise in 2025/26 may be part down to overarching incompetence and part down to the same costs as every other councils but the fact remains most people's incomes haven't risen by 8.9% so it's another cost.
I've no statistical evidence but my assertion is we have stagnated since 2008 in terms of living standards. Yes, our assets (primarily but not exclusively property) have appreciated strongly but unless you can release some of that asset (by downsizing) it's not much help. Yet there's plenty of people with plenty of money - I wonder what the take up in ISAs will be in April 2025?
Funding is down hugely - perhaps 30% in real terms since 2010.
CPC put owning the Libs above patriotism by openly cheering on an enemy power.
Now super butthurt folk will coalesce around the flag to stop them.
True globalists about to get a kicking from the citizens of somewhere.
There was good deflation caused by globalisation, and the entry of China onto world markets, leading to lower prices.
The problem was treating it like bad deflation (lack of demand) and over-inflating the economy with ultra-low interest rates and QE.
It's industrial electricity costs where the UK is a complete disaster, not household bills. Industrial gas and diesel are higher too, but not far off the European average.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cYBgE5C4HaY
Improbably, I ended up feeling rather sorry for the world's richest man.
He may be the world's richest man, but he's obviously deeply unhappy and mentally troubled. As he had a ghastly childhood with a terrible father and rampant bullying at school he lashes out and has to disrupt everything all the time, no matter how much suffering he causes.
He, Trump and Putin are well-matched in those respects (though I've a feeling that Trump was the bully not the bullied at school).
He may have a million times as much money as I and almost everybody I know do, but we're much happier people, which I suppose is what counts at the end of the day.
Cosmic justice?
The police can face difficult decisions in cases like this. Much depends on what exactly was said in the emails, and I'm unsure the parents might be the most impartial 'witnesses', and you'd need to see the full chain of comments, not just the ones they choose to show. ...
If he was bullied, then I'd expect him to have learnt a little of how it feels, and not to act the way he is at the moment.
Acting like a bully.
It’s all well and fine for well off people here just blithely saying people need to,pay more.
The govt needs to radically review local govt funding to make it fairer and more equitable as well as reviewing what councils are obliged to do.
“While we absolutely recognise the importance of the right to protest, we have a responsibility to intervene to prevent activity that crosses the line from protest into serious disruption and other criminality.
“On Thursday, officers raided a Youth Demand planning meeting where those in attendance were plotting their April action.
“Six people were arrested on suspicion of conspiracy to cause a public nuisance.”
The force confirmed that a number of houses were also raided on Thursday and Friday as part of the same operation.
Youth Demand said the meeting was intended to be “an opportunity to share plans for non-violence civil resistance actions” and alleged that one of those arrested is a journalist.
The group has made anti-Israel demands central to its messaging, calling for the UK government to cut all trade with Israel and accusing it of enabling genocide. It also wants the state to raise money from “the super-rich and fossil fuel elite” to pay damages for the effects of fossil fuel burning.
A Youth Demand spokesperson said: “It’s clear that the government sees Youth Demand as a threat. They know that we are right.
“The government is facilitating genocide. Thousands of us are horrified.
“We will not be silenced. Young people all over the country are coming together to shut London down day after day throughout April.”
The group’s tactics have previously drawn criticism, including from within the Jewish community. In April last year, three activists hung a banner and laid rows of children’s shoes outside the home of Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer. Lenorah Ward, 21, Zosia Lewis, 23, and Daniel Formentin, 24, were each handed suspended prison sentences over the stunt.
More arrests followed in July when Youth Demand announced plans to disrupt the State Opening of Parliament.
Despite the latest police intervention, the group is promoting another “welcome talk” in Brighton on Monday evening.
https://www.jewishnews.co.uk/youth-activists-arrested-over-plan-to-shut-down-london-in-anti-israel-campaign/
https://www.hertsmerelibdems.org.uk/our-team/bushey-park
It just has to be reformed. It's probably the thing I'm most disappointed by with Labour so far.
Letter from an American email
https://x.com/accidentalp/status/1905883994937319567?s=61
From the reporting this seems to be little more than the school getting annoyed at pushy parents and using the Police against them. There was no crime and no evidence of a crime.
But then I don't get the power angle either. Although involved in politics I am a behind the scenes person. I have no interest in power.
Similarly with regard to money. I am well off and have everything I need. I don't need more as a status symbol. I can't spend what I have. Yet I am a pauper compared to these guys. Why do they need more than they need? What are they going to spend it on? The only justification for such wealth for me is if you use it to create wealth for others or use it to support good causes.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx77ljll077o
Three people have been found guilty of public order offences after a pro-Palestinian demonstration outside Sir Keir Starmer's house.
Leonorah Ward, 21, from Leeds; Zosia Lewis, 23, from Newcastle-upon-Tyne; and Daniel Formentin, 24, also from Leeds, were also found guilty of breaching court bail, but had denied all the charges.
@NOELreports
🇺🇸 Fox News host Jesse Watters: “We don’t need friends. If we have to burn some bridges with Denmark to take Greenland, so be it. We’re big boys. We dropped bombs on Japan, and now they’re our ally. America isn’t handcuffed by history.”
https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1905927108712386791
Whatever happened to that young idealistic barrister who did pro bono work for the McLibel two? We could do with someone like that in government now.
Intelligence from Bangkok, courtesy of my son, who phoned half an hour of so ago.
Everything seems back to normal now, apart from in the area of the collapsed building. His daughter's school was disrupted; lessons stopped and as city transport was in a mess, it took his two daughters ages to get home. Suvarnabhumi, the main Bangkok Airport was briefly closed and he was half an hour late leaving Taiwan. One of his daughters has texted Mrs C to say that some of her friends who live in apartment blocks have cracked walls but no-one seems to be moving out, at least at the moment.
And it's given our deeply fallible police an impossible task. So it's not entirely their fault.