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Has Donald Trump killed Scottish nationalism stone dead? – politicalbetting.com
Has Donald Trump killed Scottish nationalism stone dead? – politicalbetting.com
There has been a lot of wishful thinking when it comes to Scottish independence on both sides such as devolution killing Scottish nationalism stone dead or Sir Keir Starmer becoming Malleus ScotNatorum at the 2024 general election.
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The first ever first post on PB that is on topic.
Good morning everyone, and I hadn't seen this one - which is quite good.
(Source in a montage of protest: https://youtu.be/Zxt1soiJYGQ?t=46 )
"Winner Nuremburg Film Festival."
Background: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/elon-musk-fake-ads-tube-london-b2715053.html
We see this happening in a number of countries, including England, where voters are tiptoeing away that brand of politics. Trump is an ill wind that maybe brings a little good.
(Oh, and Red Bull, remind me again about how Perez was underperforming?)
100 billion for climate protection
The infrastructure fund to be only used for "new" projects
The Bundesländer (where Greens form part of 6 state governments) also allowed to borrow.
The legislation will probably pass in the Bundestag on Tuesday, but could still be very close as there could be a few dissenters from within these parties but I think not enough to prevent the 2 thirds majority needed.
In the Bundesrat they probably still need the additional approval of the Freie Wähler, who aren't keen on government debt, but I guess they can be bought off somehow.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XITJ4zgYOg0
Wonder if Cornwall will be first.
Independence for London? It has been discussed - there's a general view London (basically to the M25 - there's a natural frontier if there ever was one) would be fine as an independent city state.
On more important matters, on the day I become Supreme Liberal Centrist Dictator (yes, I recognise both the irony and the paradox), my first act will be to outlaw hyperbole.
I read this morning on my news feed the UK has been "rocked by a major earthquake in North Yorkshire". I'm more than intrigued only to find out such earth-shattering (literally) event was 1.0 on the Richter Scale.
1.0? You wouldn't feel it let alone fall out of bed for it. Yes, it can be measured by the geological surveys but, "a major earthquake" ? It's up there with a 20 point fall in the FTSE 100 being called a "crash", a 0.1% decline in GDP being called a "slump" and a one point rise for Reform in an opinion poll a "surge".
So, yes, outlaw hyperbole and take exaggeration with it though that will be a billion times harder...
An increasing number of people are covering the kind of issues related to Thiel, Musk, Yarvin and Vance, that I've been banging on about this week. This is a useful interview, which also introduces the excellent names.
"nerd reich", and "tech reich".
The particular focus on some of their number's idea of the obscilescence and collapse of the nation-
state, in this intervew here , is particularly interesting.
https://youtu.be/S5hdGmhaDJk?si=i5jUICPDqmNbkHhU
Interesting interview with Farage here, for example.
https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/nigel-farage-interview-next-prime-minister-reform-n2qjk03dt
Trumpism has however firmed up the earth on the grave. Not long ago then model of a successful small state within the EU and NATO, which Scotland could aspire to, were instances like Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia.
No longer. Now it is everything to be overtly militarised, nuclear armed, and part of the UK/France/Germany/Poland bigger boys in the playground.
BTW, is Kate Forbes still around? The Tories could do with a decent leader.
And this, despite Witkoff coming for a pre-arranged meeting on matters of war and peace.
Then, he sent Trump's special envoy home with a deliberately impossible list of demands, designed to be nothing but an insult...
https://x.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1900626491689369828
I agree though on Brexit and the fundamental questions around currency and the border. It is very difficult to swerve these issues. Otoh, energy prices in Scotland are absurdly high for a country that still produces oil and gas, exports 1/3 of its electicity generation, and has 60GW of renewables in the construction pipeline (up from 15GW now). A Scotland with such abundant energy has the opportunity to become as rich as Norway - will we miss that chance for the second time?
I am instintively unionist, but even I am developing a serious grievance over this. If Reform form part of the next government, or there is any equivocation on renewables or energy market reform, then I can see Indy starting to pick up momentum again.
There's many different sources confirming how influential his Sovereign Individual book seems to have been on the birth of the kind of techno-fascist, but also anarcho-capitalisr, influence we're seeing behind the new regime.
Reform will not win the by-election. I think the only threat to Labour would be if the Lib Dems get a Shropshire North style pick up. Anecdotally the Lib Dems are picking up a bit of momentum elsewhere, maybe with a good candidate, Mark Pack might fancy his chances in Runcorn.
One of the more interesting ones was the pivot by previous Peace Pledge Union people in the run up to WW2.
We are living in the middle of one, as some groups understand what Trump is really doing, in addition to the threat posed by Russia.
It will be very interesting to find who is left. There are all sorts of reasons, of course - some of them quite good reasons in the previous set of circumstances. And some of us (I hope my view, for one) will be too pessimistic on the other side - for all we know the legal system in the USA may get Musk and Trump under control.
Perhaps the USA will allow their weapons to be putchased for Ukraine on commercial terms for Ukraine, rather than go all out to neuter the possibility of any European help getting to Ukraine by refusing to sell us Himars, which is not even made in Europe.
We built the Florence Nightingale hospitals (I think that was the name) during Covid and did not need them. Was that an unnecessary insurance policy or a wise contingency we did not need?
Allegedly sick? The current caseload is perfectly in line with a long-term trend from 2012 onward for physical and mental disability. I don't think there is any evidence that fraud has had a material impact on the numbers. This is just what happens when the NHS gets swamped by those with long-term chronic conditions, and fails to get working-age people back on their feet (or prevent them falling over in the first place via Public Health).
Without increased taxation Labour are lumbered with austerity. Now that is a choice, a foolhardy one in my opinion. Good luck at the next election when deaf, dumb and blind kids are begging on the streets because Labour removed their PIP.
This Labour Government don't think on their feet. They could sell increased taxation (and borrowing) as a necessity post Russia-USA alignment .
If Labour in Westminster are offering austerity for Scotland whilst the SNP can offer free Moms and apple pie why not go it alone. Is Trump even relevant?
Welfare spending: disability benefits - Office for Budget Responsibi…
obr.uk/forecasts-in-depth/tax-by-tax-spend-by-spend/welfare-spending-disability-benefits/
obr.uk/forecasts-in-depth/tax-by-tax-spend-by-spend/welfare-spending-disability
Are we really that much sicker? Or did we just neglect a lot of people who needed help in 1985? Or a bit of both?
I agree that the gross inadequacies of the NHS is aggravating the situation. It is probably a reflection of my age but the number of people I know who have gone private for hip and knee replacements rather than living years in pain waiting their turn is remarkable.
This is a complicated mess but it will be so easy for the Nationalists to blame those awful London people and claim, once again, Nirvana is within reach. One thing is clear, the trend on this is not sustainable.
‘All roads lead to Westminster’
https://youtu.be/Tlw5ItLJlyc?si=PXwbeNWIA9riIvbj
Donald Trump's son Eric holds talks with John Swinney
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cvgw118nlkeo.amp
The advent of social media has probably encouraged parties and individual politicians to run to where the electorate (or those shouting the loudest) appears to be.
In former times, the politician took the people to the argument and led public debate - now, the political process is reactive and the debate is "led" by tweets and blogs. To be honest, most social media is a form of verbal lunacy and while there's little harm in allowing people to rant - places like Speakers' Corner used to do that or town halls with ranting balconies - the rants themselves shouldn't and mustn't become the terms of engagement for the debate itself.
It's not those who shout on X who should be the leading the debate but those who aren't.
Unfortunately its Donald Trump.
In Red states for his rallies. There's no-one else
Their purpose was to prevent people dying in the street if hospitals got overrun (see Greece and Spain). Pretty much an indoor bed with an oxygen supply.
What was interesting was the ravening resistance to them being built, from within the permanent system of government - I knew someone whose career was destroyed because she pushed through completion of the one she was working on.
There is a bit of a meme in the Spectator/Telegraph that this is all about younger people faking mental health problems. The evidence just doesn't stack up.
Unless the SNP won a majority next year, outright or at least with the Greens and Alba which some polls have them falling short of and the SNP held the balance of power in a hung parliament it is hard to see an indyref2 happening for the foreseeable future
🙄
https://x.com/patmillsuk/status/1900491659470660048?s=61
Who funds this lot I wonder.
https://x.com/crimeldn/status/1900637803739767012?s=61
Contingency plan…
There have been plenty of examples of philanthrophy - wealthy Victorian business men built schools, hospitals and houses for their workers. Now, it wasn't entirely philanthrophic - they knew a healthier and more educated work force would be a more productive and loyal work force thereby increasing profits.
There were plenty of "company towns" built in the 19th and 20th centuries - the nature of business is now very different of course and this group probably aren't looking at that as an example.
I suspect that most millionaires don’t define themselves as “super rich”
https://x.com/thetimes/status/1900478808643277189
It is not pro Reform media like the Mail, Sun, Telegraph or GB news.
The Ashcroft poll had Reform winning the by election
Could a Labour-Reform deal happen? I wouldn't rule it out.
As you say, any notion of a second independence referendum would be off the table.
We're getting sicker. Physical health concerns got dismissed as nanny state. The country is broken, many of us struggle to cope with it hence the explosion of depression and other mental health problems
We're diagnosing stuff that didn't used to be diagnosed. Several members of my family are diagnosed autistic - would they have been in the past? I am on the spectrum but cope so no diagnosis. Not that Autism is a sickness, but for some reason we act like it is.
Work doesn't pay, but if you're sick you're not unemployed and thus invisible. hence the systemic shift from long-term unemployment to long-term sickness
What does nationalism have to do with it?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx2xjd41g33o
https://britainelects.substack.com/p/ashcroft-poll-puts-reform-ahead-in
TLDR they undersampled the less Reform-friendly Cheshire villages. But even adjusting for this the poll would have Reform 3% ahead. I think this is a Reform win.
And Good Morning everyone.
in them, the Tories are done!
Your post is a Damascene moment for me. Would HYUFD please put the lights out as he departs the Conservative Party.
I'm deep into the planning stages of my politics YouTube channel, batting ideas back and forward to my partner in crime as we refine the concept. Entertainingly nothing yet about the practicalities of how we produce it (we live in different countries) - likely just record Teams / Zoom and dump the recording into Final Cut for editing.
This is going to be an interesting journey. I intend to be a LD candidate for Holyrood next year. Doing politics YouTube which is guaranteed to at best go beyond the party line and at worst tread on its toes...
One of the lessons of Covid should be more resilience in the NHS, and that should include not operating at 100% occupation at all times. Planned surgery is cancelled every day at my Trust for lack of beds/ITU beds. Apart from the individual misery, it is very inefficient of surgical productivity.
It is a beautiful morning, our daughters lost cat has been found, one of our granddaughter's becomes a teenager next week and one of our grandson's is 16 next week
And then you realise that Trump is causing mayhem to the world order, every morning something stupid or idiotic is announced and you just want to go out into the garden and listen to the birds and switch off the tv and social media
I note this morning the Speaker has been indulging in tens of thousands of pounds of luxury travel and accommodation and mps are frightened to hold him to account, Reeves has been indulging in more freebies, Starmer is turning into a conservative leader whilst his cabinet revolts over disability benefit cuts and Reform, despite their internal warfare, seem to be riding high in the polls
And we wonder why ?
Clue - NOA
This is expensive, wasteful, excuse engendering stuff.
Obvious examples are redefining naughty boy syndrome as ADHD (do the professionals ever read William books or Tom Sawyer), and being a bit of a geek or highly introverted as some sort of personality disorder. Being extremely dim is also well within the range of the normal human spectrum, as is, perhaps, an abnormal interest in railways or the history of voting systems or a desire to vote for Mr Trump.
I wonder what would happen if we did a thought experiment based on that the figure needs to be about 1 or 2% of all children, not 18%.
The nuance in his posts indicates pro Farage Trump leanings
It wouldn't be the car crash of Trump 2 but that's a very high bar. It would be a bizarre collection of Quixiotic and Pooteresque policies that are internally inconsistent. They would suffer the same fate as Trump, in that you cannot make an administration function when based on shock jocks and Fake News. It needs to be grounded in reality.
Reform sit on the periphery, point at the obvious which gets ignored, and offer crayon solutions. The solution? Point at the obvious and offer solutions which *aren't* crayon
You can almost hear the James Bond music playing in the background .
"Medieval men despaired of the will. They thought of humans as wounded and weak. But they respected the intellect. They thought even humans, if we think carefully, have the power to answer the most profound questions.
Modern men worship the will, but they
despair of the intellect.
It is only through a unique long-term awareness that looks back to Lenin and Stalin as well as forward to the Information Age that the Chinese Communist Party's leaders prevailed amid the trends analyzed by this book.
Those trends-winner-take-all economics, jurisdictional competition, the shift away from mass production, and the arguable obsolescence of interstate warfare are still at work today.
In truth, the great conflict over our megapolitical future is only just beginning. On the dimension of technology, the conflict has two poles: Al and crypto.
Peter Thiel
January 6, 2020 - Los Angeles
voteshare would be a Labour and Reform government
You don't want a Labour government. Fine- I'm not overjoyed, beyond a "least bad turkey left on the shelf" sense that he'll have to do.
But there comes a point where awfulness trumps right wing soundness, as the Chancellor-elect in Germany has recognised.
For the NHS - What about creating more staff? We’ve tried this one round the world - the NHS knows it’s future size and it’s demented that we don’t train staff to match.
"Islamic State leader in Iraq and Syria killed, US says - BBC News" https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c9q451y218go
I'd wait longer but my time today is very limited. Qualifying did give me several ideas, though.
Imagine a school system. Where the buildings are fit for purpose (not falling down / heating stuck on full / not reliant on portacabin classrooms) and there are sufficient teachers and assistants.
Instead of having to spend more cash mopping up the chaos, we spend less cash doing it properly. Kids with SEND can be disruptive when the school doesn't have enough staff - give them the resources and it's easier. And I say that with close family members who are SEND.
Remember the golden mantra.
Constituents first
Beliefs second
Party a long way third
Personal gain falling off the bottom.
If you want to tackle the Disability benefit expense then tackle the cause rather than the victims.