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We have our first by election but will the Reform rammy have an impact? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,355
edited March 11 in General
We have our first by election but will the Reform rammy have an impact? – politicalbetting.com

? Parliamentary By-Election Klaxon!Mike Amesbury (Runcorn & Helsby) has announced he will stand down following his conviction for assaulting a constituent.National polls indicate Labour would hold this seat by ~13% over Reform, though by-election dynamics are very different!

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,951
    edited March 11
    Labour is value here I think

    Just staked £20 on Labour
  • eekeek Posts: 29,391
    edited March 11
    2nd as Reform will be in Runcorn

    Hope no-one notices the quick edit
  • eekeek Posts: 29,391
    FPT
    MattW said:

    eek said:

    Trump had added another 25% tariff on steel imports from Canada

    I take it some states don’t want electricity

    I don't know the market, but with a +25% surcharge is Canada still the competitive supplier for that region?

    On oil they should be able to get away with a lot, because demand for heavy crude from the heavy-crude refineries in Texas is afaics price-inelastic.
    Ever wanted to see what the economic impact of $200+ for a barrel of oil is - well Chicago is about to find out
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,118
    FPT
    viewcode said:

    Nigelb said:

    viewcode said:

    Nigelb said:

    Malmesbury said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    ...

    HYUFD said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    HYUFD said:

    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Frank_Booth said:

    HYUFD said:

    JohnLilburne said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @thetimes

    Marco Rubio, the US secretary of state, said that Ukraine will have to give up land seized by Russia as part of any peace deal as he flew to Saudi Arabia for make-or-break talks

    On that Rubio is right, no chance Russia agrees to any ceasefire without keeping the land it has already gained
    Why is the US accepting Russian conditions before negotiations have even started ?
    While actively attacking Ukraine's.

    You might as well say there's no chance of Russia agreeing a ceasefire without Ukraine's capitulation.
    Russia wants all the regions it has partly gained not just the bits it has now occupied.

    Both sides will have to compromise for a peace deal
    Which is why it is so disgusting that the US is seeking an unjust peace. Team Orange seem to forget that there are purposes in fighting a war. They are clearly selling Ukraine down the river. For Ukraine to continue killing Russians degrades their army and makes it unlikely they could try it on anywhere else any time soon. Also condemns millions of Ukrainians to occupation and genocide
    The only way Russia can be defeated is to force Russian troops out of Ukraine entirely but Putin would likely use a nuclear bomb of some form if he looked like losing that badly.

    Otherwise it has to be some division of boundaries of territory in which neither Ukraine nor Russia get all they want for peace
    Why are you so convinced about him using a nuclear bomb? Just think. What would be the consequences for him of doing so?
    Little more sanctions than he already has and Russia has more nuclear missiles than any other nation on earth
    The consequences would ultimately be nuclear strikes on Moscow. Might take a while, but that’s the end game. Now, we’d all be fried too but Putin is not a nihilist or mad.
    Not if just tactical nukes used in Ukraine, Moscow would only be nuked if London, Paris or New York or DC or LA were nuked
    So Putin can nuke his way to just short of Alsace and he'll be exempt from any nuclear retaliatory action?
    I highly doubt France, the UK or US would actually when it came down to it nuke Russia unless they themselves had been nuked by Putin.

    The nuclear missile umbrella for all non US and non UK NATO nations Macron is talking about is principally just to make Putin think they might if he invaded or nuked a NATO nation which didn't have nuclear missiles
    Nuclear proliferation was a bit rubbish then. If we can only use our nukes when London and Paris have been reduced to rubble it wasn't much of a deterrent.
    Yes Prime Minister summarised it well

    https://www.facebook.com/ukcomedyfans/videos/yes-prime-minister-nuclear-deterrent/1784300631870797/

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P7YR6WICIAI
    Which is why you General Power in charge if your nuclear weapons. For those whose don’t know, Curtis Le May thought Power was a bit too enthusiastic about war.
    Deterrence theory has moved on a bit since the days of Walter Matthau.
    FAIL-SAFE (1963): excerpt "The First Strike Argument" (2 mins), with Walter Matthau as the hawkish civilian Pentagon advisor, Prof. Groeteschele
    The old days, just on the cusp of the nuclear triad / assured second strike regime.

    I think they hand painted the electronic situation display for the movie ?
    I don't think so: it has the flickering you'd associate with a refresh rate out of synch with the film camera frame rate. Happy to be contradicted if you know otherwise

    I love the gray balance in "Fail Safe": those blacks are very deep and give the film a distinct look. I don't know if we could reproduce it these days. "The Hill" has a similar look if not as dramatic.
    According to IMDB
    https://m.imdb.com/title/tt0058083/trivia/?item=tr3102396

    Given the tiny budget, it seems quite likely.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,107
    On topic, Labour value, yes, but not by much.

    And plenty of opportunity for events between now and polling day, even if it's May 1.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,707
    The reason for the by-election may damage Labour a bit. If the sitting MP had died, that's one thing, but resigning because you've beaten up a constituent may have a negative impact on the Labour vote at the margins.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,657
    eek said:

    FPT

    MattW said:

    eek said:

    Trump had added another 25% tariff on steel imports from Canada

    I take it some states don’t want electricity

    I don't know the market, but with a +25% surcharge is Canada still the competitive supplier for that region?

    On oil they should be able to get away with a lot, because demand for heavy crude from the heavy-crude refineries in Texas is afaics price-inelastic.
    Ever wanted to see what the economic impact of $200+ for a barrel of oil is - well Chicago is about to find out
    Look on the bright side.

    There will be fewer cars and more bicycles.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,967
    Off topic 😇 Go Lossie!
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,293
    If Amesbury takes the Chiltern today and the writ is issues before close of business, then the earliest this election could take place is Wednesday, 9 April 2025. History is moving very quickly at the moment and a lot could change before then.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,998
    MattW said:

    eek said:

    FPT

    MattW said:

    eek said:

    Trump had added another 25% tariff on steel imports from Canada

    I take it some states don’t want electricity

    I don't know the market, but with a +25% surcharge is Canada still the competitive supplier for that region?

    On oil they should be able to get away with a lot, because demand for heavy crude from the heavy-crude refineries in Texas is afaics price-inelastic.
    Ever wanted to see what the economic impact of $200+ for a barrel of oil is - well Chicago is about to find out
    Look on the bright side.

    There will be fewer cars and more bicycles.
    Katie Melua looking forward to reworking her “10 million bicycles in Beijing” dirge for a new young audience secretly listening in to Radio Free America once Herr Shitler and Martin Boringcomapanyman have closed down non X media.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,087
    Dura_Ace said:

    It's funny, in both senses of the word, how irrelevant the tories are becoming.

    Perhaps Trump will revive the North American sense of Tory as 'British loyalist'.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,294
    Dura_Ace said:

    It's funny, in both senses of the word, how irrelevant the tories are becoming.

    And yet I wouldn't rule them out as recovering substantially by the next general election. They have been historically very resilient.

    Could do without a complete duffer as leader, mind. That chap Cameron has a bit about him - is he available?
  • eekeek Posts: 29,391
    turbotubbs said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    It's funny, in both senses of the word, how irrelevant the tories are becoming.

    And yet I wouldn't rule them out as recovering substantially by the next general election. They have been historically very resilient.

    Could do without a complete duffer as leader, mind. That chap Cameron has a bit about him - is he available?
    Problem is they need to pick from the Tory members who are in Parliament and there aren’t many decent options to choose from
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,967
    MoonRabbit said:

    Off topic 😇 Go Lossie!

    ❤️ Lossie.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,087
    eek said:

    turbotubbs said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    It's funny, in both senses of the word, how irrelevant the tories are becoming.

    And yet I wouldn't rule them out as recovering substantially by the next general election. They have been historically very resilient.

    Could do without a complete duffer as leader, mind. That chap Cameron has a bit about him - is he available?
    Problem is they need to pick from the Tory members who are in Parliament and there aren’t many decent options to choose from
    Rupert Lowe is an MP...
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,925
    turbotubbs said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    It's funny, in both senses of the word, how irrelevant the tories are becoming.

    And yet I wouldn't rule them out as recovering substantially by the next general election. They have been historically very resilient.

    Could do without a complete duffer as leader, mind. That chap Cameron has a bit about him - is he available?
    Is Penny Mordaunt still the great saviour-in-waiting, or is there now the nagging concern she might be Kemi 2.0?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,569
    williamglenn said:

    eek said:

    turbotubbs said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    It's funny, in both senses of the word, how irrelevant the tories are becoming.

    And yet I wouldn't rule them out as recovering substantially by the next general election. They have been historically very resilient.

    Could do without a complete duffer as leader, mind. That chap Cameron has a bit about him - is he available?
    Problem is they need to pick from the Tory members who are in Parliament and there aren’t many decent options to choose from
    Rupert Lowe is an MP...
    Reform (suspended, non-acting) ...
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,061
    Is anybody falling for this crap?

    @ABC

    “If a shutdown happens, the Democrats will own it.”

    As House Republicans are slated to vote Tuesday on their spending bill to fund the government, GOP Conference Chairwoman Lisa McClain says, “Democrats have become chaos agents.”

    https://x.com/ABC/status/1899468130964918384
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,087
    Stark_Dawning said:

    turbotubbs said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    It's funny, in both senses of the word, how irrelevant the tories are becoming.

    And yet I wouldn't rule them out as recovering substantially by the next general election. They have been historically very resilient.

    Could do without a complete duffer as leader, mind. That chap Cameron has a bit about him - is he available?
    Is Penny Mordaunt still the great saviour-in-waiting, or is there now the nagging concern she might be Kemi 2.0?
    I have her earmarked as the Shirley Williams of the right-SDP alongside Jenrick and Lowe. Williams lost her seat in the 1979 election.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,150
    Scott_xP said:

    Is anybody falling for this crap?

    @ABC

    “If a shutdown happens, the Democrats will own it.”

    As House Republicans are slated to vote Tuesday on their spending bill to fund the government, GOP Conference Chairwoman Lisa McClain says, “Democrats have become chaos agents.”

    https://x.com/ABC/status/1899468130964918384

    Yes, about half of America.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,294
    Stark_Dawning said:

    turbotubbs said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    It's funny, in both senses of the word, how irrelevant the tories are becoming.

    And yet I wouldn't rule them out as recovering substantially by the next general election. They have been historically very resilient.

    Could do without a complete duffer as leader, mind. That chap Cameron has a bit about him - is he available?
    Is Penny Mordaunt still the great saviour-in-waiting, or is there now the nagging concern she might be Kemi 2.0?
    I think rather a lot of them would be Kemi 2.0. The purge by Johnson did a lot of damage and the election last year even more. Tories need to work out what they stand for and make their case to the country. Right now I think I know what Reform stand for (I don't agree or like it, but I do understand it). I think I understand the Lib dems (everyone should go bungee jumping as often as possible, just don't ask about policy). I think Labour are suddenly discovering that governing with no money is really, really hard. They might reflect, a bit, on the abuse they dished out to the Tories over the last 14 years. But they won't, in the same way the Tories won't accept that they messed things up too.

    We seem to be a long way from Buttskellism. And yet most on the most centrist Dad site on the internet would broadly fit into that worldview.
  • AugustusCarp2AugustusCarp2 Posts: 255
    eek said:

    turbotubbs said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    It's funny, in both senses of the word, how irrelevant the tories are becoming.

    And yet I wouldn't rule them out as recovering substantially by the next general election. They have been historically very resilient.

    Could do without a complete duffer as leader, mind. That chap Cameron has a bit about him - is he available?
    Problem is they need to pick from the Tory members who are in Parliament and there aren’t many decent options to choose from
    IMHO, any new Leader the Tories get is a lot better than the Tories deserve.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,657
    williamglenn said:

    eek said:

    turbotubbs said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    It's funny, in both senses of the word, how irrelevant the tories are becoming.

    And yet I wouldn't rule them out as recovering substantially by the next general election. They have been historically very resilient.

    Could do without a complete duffer as leader, mind. That chap Cameron has a bit about him - is he available?
    Problem is they need to pick from the Tory members who are in Parliament and there aren’t many decent options to choose from
    Rupert Lowe is an MP...
    Well, he is a bit Alan Clark.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,087
    https://x.com/trump_repost/status/1899482765084827828

    Why would our Country allow another Country to supply us with electricity, even for a small area? Who made these decisions, and why? And can you imagine Canada stooping so low as to use ELECTRICITY, that so affects the life of innocent people, as a bargaining chip and threat? They will pay a financial price for this so big that it will be read about in History Books for many years to come!
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,657
    Carnyx said:

    williamglenn said:

    eek said:

    turbotubbs said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    It's funny, in both senses of the word, how irrelevant the tories are becoming.

    And yet I wouldn't rule them out as recovering substantially by the next general election. They have been historically very resilient.

    Could do without a complete duffer as leader, mind. That chap Cameron has a bit about him - is he available?
    Problem is they need to pick from the Tory members who are in Parliament and there aren’t many decent options to choose from
    Rupert Lowe is an MP...
    Reform (suspended, non-acting) ...
    Expelled, not suspended.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,118
    Carnyx said:

    williamglenn said:

    eek said:

    turbotubbs said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    It's funny, in both senses of the word, how irrelevant the tories are becoming.

    And yet I wouldn't rule them out as recovering substantially by the next general election. They have been historically very resilient.

    Could do without a complete duffer as leader, mind. That chap Cameron has a bit about him - is he available?
    Problem is they need to pick from the Tory members who are in Parliament and there aren’t many decent options to choose from
    Rupert Lowe is an MP...
    Reform (suspended, non-acting) ...
    Also not exactly a 'decent option'.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,802
    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/trump_repost/status/1899482765084827828

    Why would our Country allow another Country to supply us with electricity, even for a small area? Who made these decisions, and why? And can you imagine Canada stooping so low as to use ELECTRICITY, that so affects the life of innocent people, as a bargaining chip and threat? They will pay a financial price for this so big that it will be read about in History Books for many years to come!

    Sowing the seeds for casus belli.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,967
    Today’s big one. Probably the biggest clash of the week. Who’s the Champion Hurdler out there?

    A reminder, Constitution Hill has never lost a race under rules. Unbeaten. Box office in his own lunchtime. The home teams banker v Ireland. Muscly chest and mean, moody game face on, a bruiser ready to rumble in the paddock. “Questions? Who’s been questioning I’m the greatest? Who wants some?”

    History certain to be made in the coming minutes.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,061
    @fritschner.bsky.social‬

    Republicans snuck a provision into the rule for the CR that would preemptively surrender congressional authority to block tariffs.

    When House Republicans vote for this rule today, they will also be voting to support Trump's tariffs and all the resulting damage to the US economy
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,118
    Scott_xP said:

    Is anybody falling for this crap?

    @ABC

    “If a shutdown happens, the Democrats will own it.”

    As House Republicans are slated to vote Tuesday on their spending bill to fund the government, GOP Conference Chairwoman Lisa McClain says, “Democrats have become chaos agents.”

    https://x.com/ABC/status/1899468130964918384

    McGovern: The idea that somehow Democrats have the responsibility to pass a CR where we don’t have any input is ridiculous. You run around bragging about this big mandate. Put on your mandate pants and pass whatever you want to do.
    https://x.com/Acyn/status/1899221543328350526

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,808
    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/trump_repost/status/1899482765084827828

    Why would our Country allow another Country to supply us with electricity, even for a small area? Who made these decisions, and why? And can you imagine Canada stooping so low as to use ELECTRICITY, that so affects the life of innocent people, as a bargaining chip and threat? They will pay a financial price for this so big that it will be read about in History Books for many years to come!

    Errr: because the countries are friends and it lowers electricity prices, therefore increasing the competitiveness of American companies.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,925
    dixiedean said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/trump_repost/status/1899482765084827828

    Why would our Country allow another Country to supply us with electricity, even for a small area? Who made these decisions, and why? And can you imagine Canada stooping so low as to use ELECTRICITY, that so affects the life of innocent people, as a bargaining chip and threat? They will pay a financial price for this so big that it will be read about in History Books for many years to come!

    Sowing the seeds for casus belli.
    I think that's possible. Annexing Canada looks like an obsession.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,480
    ...
    turbotubbs said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    turbotubbs said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    It's funny, in both senses of the word, how irrelevant the tories are becoming.

    And yet I wouldn't rule them out as recovering substantially by the next general election. They have been historically very resilient.

    Could do without a complete duffer as leader, mind. That chap Cameron has a bit about him - is he available?
    Is Penny Mordaunt still the great saviour-in-waiting, or is there now the nagging concern she might be Kemi 2.0?
    I think rather a lot of them would be Kemi 2.0. The purge by Johnson did a lot of damage and the election last year even more. Tories need to work out what they stand for and make their case to the country. Right now I think I know what Reform stand for (I don't agree or like it, but I do understand it). I think I understand the Lib dems (everyone should go bungee jumping as often as possible, just don't ask about policy). I think Labour are suddenly discovering that governing with no money is really, really hard. They might reflect, a bit, on the abuse they dished out to the Tories over the last 14 years. But they won't, in the same way the Tories won't accept that they messed things up too.

    We seem to be a long way from Buttskellism. And yet most on the most centrist Dad site on the internet would broadly fit into that worldview.
    I'm not so sure. Buttskellites are seen more as woke lefties than one nation Tories/ centrist Labour politicians.

    Both the Conservatives and Reform seem to be duking it out on ground vacated by Enoch Powell and Terry Dicks. And between them they are quite popular for that.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,149
    rcs1000 said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/trump_repost/status/1899482765084827828

    Why would our Country allow another Country to supply us with electricity, even for a small area? Who made these decisions, and why? And can you imagine Canada stooping so low as to use ELECTRICITY, that so affects the life of innocent people, as a bargaining chip and threat? They will pay a financial price for this so big that it will be read about in History Books for many years to come!

    Errr: because the countries are friends and it lowers electricity prices, therefore increasing the competitiveness of American companies.
    does the US have any friends left? Not sure Russia counts - they are closer to China, Iran and North Korea.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,499
    Trump threatening Canada again?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,118
    rcs1000 said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/trump_repost/status/1899482765084827828

    Why would our Country allow another Country to supply us with electricity, even for a small area? Who made these decisions, and why? And can you imagine Canada stooping so low as to use ELECTRICITY, that so affects the life of innocent people, as a bargaining chip and threat? They will pay a financial price for this so big that it will be read about in History Books for many years to come!

    Errr: because the countries are friends and it lowers electricity prices, therefore increasing the competitiveness of American companies.
    Trump isn't very bright.

    I doubt William actually believes this stuff.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,039
    FPT...
    dixiedean said:

    glw said:

    williamglenn said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @JenniferJJacobs

    In message that was deleted and reposted, Trump said he will:
    - "permanently" shut Canadian car industry by raising tariffs substantially
    -declare a national emergency on energy
    -raise tariffs on steel and aluminum from Canada to 50%

    https://x.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/1899462852659863638

    https://x.com/trump_repost/status/1899464660094423301

    Based on Ontario, Canada, placing a 25% Tariff on "Electricity" coming into the United States, I have instructed my Secretary of Commerce to add an ADDITIONAL 25% Tariff, to 50%, on all STEEL and ALUMINUM COMING INTO THE UNITED STATES FROM CANADA, ONE OF THE HIGHEST TARIFFING NATIONS ANYWHERE IN THE WORLD. This will go into effect TOMORROW MORNING, March 12th. Also, Canada must immediately drop their Anti-American Farmer Tariff of 250% to 390% on various U.S. dairy products, which has long been considered outrageous. I will shortly be declaring a National Emergency on Electricity within the threatened area. This will allow the U.S to quickly do what has to be done to alleviate this abusive threat from Canada. If other egregious, long time Tariffs are not likewise dropped by Canada, I will substantially increase, on April 2nd, the Tariffs on Cars coming into the U.S. which will, essentially, permanently shut down the automobile manufacturing business in Canada. Those cars can easily be made in the USA! Also, Canada pays very little for National Security, relying on the United States for military protection. We are subsidizing Canada to the tune of more than 200 Billion Dollars a year. WHY??? This cannot continue. The only thing that makes sense is for Canada to become our cherished Fifty First State. This would make all Tariffs, and everything else, totally disappear. Canadians' taxes will be very substantially reduced, they will be more secure, militarily and otherwise, than ever before, there would no longer be a Northern Border problem, and the greatest and most powerful nation in the World will be bigger, better and stronger than ever — And Canada will be a big part of that. The artificial line of separation drawn many years ago will finally disappear, and we will have the safest and most beautiful Nation anywhere in the World — And your brilliant anthem, "O Canada," will continue to play, but now representing a GREAT and POWERFUL STATE within the greatest Nation that the World has ever seen!
    You know if the US is still a functioning law-abiding sane nation then this is the point that the 25th amendment would be used, or Congress would impeach him, or in extremis the US military would depose him. Donald has completely flipped his lid, and letting him continue in office is absurdly dangerous.
    But then we get Vance.
    Nowt to see here...
    Vance 180'ed on many of his positions when he became Trump's VP. With Trump out of the picture, President Vance might 180 back. President Vance will want to be re-elected and will perhaps be more sensitive to voters' concerns. So, I think the fire definitely looks better than the frying pan.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,118
    kamski said:

    rcs1000 said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/trump_repost/status/1899482765084827828

    Why would our Country allow another Country to supply us with electricity, even for a small area? Who made these decisions, and why? And can you imagine Canada stooping so low as to use ELECTRICITY, that so affects the life of innocent people, as a bargaining chip and threat? They will pay a financial price for this so big that it will be read about in History Books for many years to come!

    Errr: because the countries are friends and it lowers electricity prices, therefore increasing the competitiveness of American companies.
    does the US have any friends left? Not sure Russia counts - they are closer to China, Iran and North Korea.
    The US has plenty of friends. The Trump administration, not so much.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,039
    The Workers Party having lower odds than the LibDems feels a bit painful.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,240
    Am I alone, or just marginally paranoid, in wondering whether there isn't something slightly suspicious about the ship 'collision' off the Humber yesterday?
    After all, it's not as though the tanker was moving. It was anchored. Even in fog it must have been visible for some distance.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,499
    https://x.com/trump_repost/status/1899464660094423301

    Mark Carney should tell America to go fuck itself
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,039
    Barnesian said:

    Labour is value here I think

    Just staked £20 on Labour

    You are a braver punter than I am. Despite all the problems Reform UK are currently having, by-elections are rarely good news for incumbent parties.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,743
    Nigelb said:

    FPT

    viewcode said:

    Nigelb said:

    viewcode said:

    Nigelb said:

    Malmesbury said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    ...

    HYUFD said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    HYUFD said:

    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Frank_Booth said:

    HYUFD said:

    JohnLilburne said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @thetimes

    Marco Rubio, the US secretary of state, said that Ukraine will have to give up land seized by Russia as part of any peace deal as he flew to Saudi Arabia for make-or-break talks

    On that Rubio is right, no chance Russia agrees to any ceasefire without keeping the land it has already gained
    Why is the US accepting Russian conditions before negotiations have even started ?
    While actively attacking Ukraine's.

    You might as well say there's no chance of Russia agreeing a ceasefire without Ukraine's capitulation.
    Russia wants all the regions it has partly gained not just the bits it has now occupied.

    Both sides will have to compromise for a peace deal
    Which is why it is so disgusting that the US is seeking an unjust peace. Team Orange seem to forget that there are purposes in fighting a war. They are clearly selling Ukraine down the river. For Ukraine to continue killing Russians degrades their army and makes it unlikely they could try it on anywhere else any time soon. Also condemns millions of Ukrainians to occupation and genocide
    The only way Russia can be defeated is to force Russian troops out of Ukraine entirely but Putin would likely use a nuclear bomb of some form if he looked like losing that badly.

    Otherwise it has to be some division of boundaries of territory in which neither Ukraine nor Russia get all they want for peace
    Why are you so convinced about him using a nuclear bomb? Just think. What would be the consequences for him of doing so?
    Little more sanctions than he already has and Russia has more nuclear missiles than any other nation on earth
    The consequences would ultimately be nuclear strikes on Moscow. Might take a while, but that’s the end game. Now, we’d all be fried too but Putin is not a nihilist or mad.
    Not if just tactical nukes used in Ukraine, Moscow would only be nuked if London, Paris or New York or DC or LA were nuked
    So Putin can nuke his way to just short of Alsace and he'll be exempt from any nuclear retaliatory action?
    I highly doubt France, the UK or US would actually when it came down to it nuke Russia unless they themselves had been nuked by Putin.

    The nuclear missile umbrella for all non US and non UK NATO nations Macron is talking about is principally just to make Putin think they might if he invaded or nuked a NATO nation which didn't have nuclear missiles
    Nuclear proliferation was a bit rubbish then. If we can only use our nukes when London and Paris have been reduced to rubble it wasn't much of a deterrent.
    Yes Prime Minister summarised it well

    https://www.facebook.com/ukcomedyfans/videos/yes-prime-minister-nuclear-deterrent/1784300631870797/

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P7YR6WICIAI
    Which is why you General Power in charge if your nuclear weapons. For those whose don’t know, Curtis Le May thought Power was a bit too enthusiastic about war.
    Deterrence theory has moved on a bit since the days of Walter Matthau.
    FAIL-SAFE (1963): excerpt "The First Strike Argument" (2 mins), with Walter Matthau as the hawkish civilian Pentagon advisor, Prof. Groeteschele
    The old days, just on the cusp of the nuclear triad / assured second strike regime.

    I think they hand painted the electronic situation display for the movie ?
    I don't think so: it has the flickering you'd associate with a refresh rate out of synch with the film camera frame rate. Happy to be contradicted if you know otherwise

    I love the gray balance in "Fail Safe": those blacks are very deep and give the film a distinct look. I don't know if we could reproduce it these days. "The Hill" has a similar look if not as dramatic.
    According to IMDB
    https://m.imdb.com/title/tt0058083/trivia/?item=tr3102396

    Given the tiny budget, it seems quite likely.
    You appear to be right. The screen was a hand-animated picture animated by John and Faith Hubley (the "Hubley Animation Studio"), transposed onto film and then projected onto the screen (hence the flickering?) which was then filmed live by the film's cameras. So animation to film to projection to film...cool.

    https://scottross79.wordpress.com/2021/08/25/picturing-the-unthinkable-fail-safe-1964/
    https://trailersfromhell.com/fail-safe-2/
    https://doomsdaymachines.net/p/the-big-board
    https://www.kinogirl.ca/page/2/

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,724
    There's plenty more Scots words where rammy comes from:

    There was a rammie in the street,
    A stishie and stramash.
    The crabbit wifie up the stair
    Pit up her winda sash.

    “Nou what’s adae?” the wifie cried,
    “Juist tell me what’s adae.”
    A day is twinty-fower hours, missis,
    Nou gie us peace to play.

    “Juist tell me what’s ado,” she cried,
    “And nane o yer gab,” cried she.
    D’ye no ken a doo’s a pigeon, missis?
    Nou haud your wheesht a wee.

    “I want to ken what’s up,” she cried,
    “And nae mair o yer cheek, ye loun.”
    It’s only yer winda that’s up, missis.
    For guidsake pit it doun.


    Its almost as if noise and fighting in our streets, possibly after a light refreshment, was a central part of our character.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,149
    RochdalePioneers said:

    Trump threatening Canada again?

    Just following your mate Musk

    https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/elon-musk-canadian-citizenship-1.7468330

    'Monday, Musk responded to a post about the petition on his social media platform X saying "Canada is not a real country."'


  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,061
    Major campaign boost for Carney!

    https://x.com/adamboultonTABB/status/1899489087783895363
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,420
    I'd have still voted Democrat, but it's easy to see why they lost:

    https://x.com/SwipeWright/status/1899281710342156753
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,724
    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/trump_repost/status/1899482765084827828

    Why would our Country allow another Country to supply us with electricity, even for a small area? Who made these decisions, and why? And can you imagine Canada stooping so low as to use ELECTRICITY, that so affects the life of innocent people, as a bargaining chip and threat? They will pay a financial price for this so big that it will be read about in History Books for many years to come!

    But none of this applies to Israel preventing electricity being supplied to Gaza, apparently?

    The man is shameless.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,808
    kamski said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Trump threatening Canada again?

    Just following your mate Musk

    https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/elon-musk-canadian-citizenship-1.7468330

    'Monday, Musk responded to a post about the petition on his social media platform X saying "Canada is not a real country."'


    Is there anywhere that Tesla is expecting to sell cars in the future?
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,005
    Scott_xP said:

    Major campaign boost for Carney!

    https://x.com/adamboultonTABB/status/1899489087783895363

    Lettuce consider that.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,967
    Racing. Bloody Hell.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,087
    DavidL said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/trump_repost/status/1899482765084827828

    Why would our Country allow another Country to supply us with electricity, even for a small area? Who made these decisions, and why? And can you imagine Canada stooping so low as to use ELECTRICITY, that so affects the life of innocent people, as a bargaining chip and threat? They will pay a financial price for this so big that it will be read about in History Books for many years to come!

    But none of this applies to Israel preventing electricity being supplied to Gaza, apparently?

    The man is shameless.
    Starmer might have finally found the issue to back Canada over.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,998
    I wonder what the trigger point is for ex presidents from all parties and respected cross party politicians to go public and say “this insanity has to stop@?

    Is it when diplomats are recalled from Canada?

    Invasion of Greenland?

    Invasion of Canada?

    Implosion of the US economy?

    States Seceding?

    To twist the line, “Who does the world call when they want to speak to someone sane in US power?”

    Will Rubio stand for it much longer? Will Vance suddenly worry about going down with a sinking ship?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,724
    williamglenn said:

    DavidL said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/trump_repost/status/1899482765084827828

    Why would our Country allow another Country to supply us with electricity, even for a small area? Who made these decisions, and why? And can you imagine Canada stooping so low as to use ELECTRICITY, that so affects the life of innocent people, as a bargaining chip and threat? They will pay a financial price for this so big that it will be read about in History Books for many years to come!

    But none of this applies to Israel preventing electricity being supplied to Gaza, apparently?

    The man is shameless.
    Starmer might have finally found the issue to back Canada over.
    Personally, I would like some joint training exercises to be organised with the Canadians as soon as possible.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,168
    edited March 11
    OldKingCole said:

    Am I alone, or just marginally paranoid, in wondering whether there isn't something slightly suspicious about the ship 'collision' off the Humber yesterday?
    After all, it's not as though the tanker was moving. It was anchored. Even in fog it must have been visible for some distance.

    Many years ago I met the captain of a large oil tanker and he explained the stopping distance for boats like this huge.

    You can see the object but there’s bugger all you can do to stop or change direction.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 4,291
    DavidL said:

    williamglenn said:

    DavidL said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/trump_repost/status/1899482765084827828

    Why would our Country allow another Country to supply us with electricity, even for a small area? Who made these decisions, and why? And can you imagine Canada stooping so low as to use ELECTRICITY, that so affects the life of innocent people, as a bargaining chip and threat? They will pay a financial price for this so big that it will be read about in History Books for many years to come!

    But none of this applies to Israel preventing electricity being supplied to Gaza, apparently?

    The man is shameless.
    Starmer might have finally found the issue to back Canada over.
    Personally, I would like some joint training exercises to be organised with the Canadians as soon as possible.
    I wonder if the Canadian military leave has been cancelled...
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,917
    boulay said:

    I wonder what the trigger point is for ex presidents from all parties and respected cross party politicians to go public and say “this insanity has to stop@?

    Is it when diplomats are recalled from Canada?

    Invasion of Greenland?

    Invasion of Canada?

    Implosion of the US economy?

    States Seceding?

    To twist the line, “Who does the world call when they want to speak to someone sane in US power?”

    Will Rubio stand for it much longer? Will Vance suddenly worry about going down with a sinking ship?

    It is irrelevant. A vote for Trump was a vote against not just Biden, but also Bush, Reagan, Romney, Dole and McCain. It was a vote for a kind of insanity.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,499
    OldKingCole said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    https://x.com/trump_repost/status/1899464660094423301

    Mark Carney should tell America to go fuck itself

    Mark Carney should ask the King to open the Canadian Parliament after the election.
    What a delicious idea! Supposedly Trump was most put out seeing the pictures of the King with Zelenskyy. So lets have Charles open the Canadian Parliament after the next election to really wind him up.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,917
    Daveyboy1961 said:

    DavidL said:

    williamglenn said:

    DavidL said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/trump_repost/status/1899482765084827828

    Why would our Country allow another Country to supply us with electricity, even for a small area? Who made these decisions, and why? And can you imagine Canada stooping so low as to use ELECTRICITY, that so affects the life of innocent people, as a bargaining chip and threat? They will pay a financial price for this so big that it will be read about in History Books for many years to come!

    But none of this applies to Israel preventing electricity being supplied to Gaza, apparently?

    The man is shameless.
    Starmer might have finally found the issue to back Canada over.
    Personally, I would like some joint training exercises to be organised with the Canadians as soon as possible.
    I wonder if the Canadian military leave has been cancelled...
    I suspect it will be timed to enable suspension of either the 2026 or 2028 elections.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,724
    rcs1000 said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/trump_repost/status/1899482765084827828

    Why would our Country allow another Country to supply us with electricity, even for a small area? Who made these decisions, and why? And can you imagine Canada stooping so low as to use ELECTRICITY, that so affects the life of innocent people, as a bargaining chip and threat? They will pay a financial price for this so big that it will be read about in History Books for many years to come!

    Errr: because the countries are friends and it lowers electricity prices, therefore increasing the competitiveness of American companies.
    I think you need to check your tenses there. "Were" friends, perhaps?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,039
    tlg86 said:

    I'd have still voted Democrat, but it's easy to see why they lost:

    https://x.com/SwipeWright/status/1899281710342156753

    Are any of those the Democratic Presidential candidate, or Democratic candidates of any sort?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,970
    rcs1000 said:

    kamski said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Trump threatening Canada again?

    Just following your mate Musk

    https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/elon-musk-canadian-citizenship-1.7468330

    'Monday, Musk responded to a post about the petition on his social media platform X saying "Canada is not a real country."'


    Is there anywhere that Tesla is expecting to sell cars in the future?
    Idaho?

    I don't know...
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,850
    OldKingCole said:

    Am I alone, or just marginally paranoid, in wondering whether there isn't something slightly suspicious about the ship 'collision' off the Humber yesterday?
    After all, it's not as though the tanker was moving. It was anchored. Even in fog it must have been visible for some distance.

    I watched the excellent "What's up with shipping" channel on this yesterday, and from that, I reckon there's nothing suspicious at all.

    If I understand correctly, then the freighter takes this exact same route regularly. In addition, the navigation channels in the area are limited by the nearby windfarms, so big vessels cannot just go where they want.

    I would not be surprised if the crew were essentially on autopilot. "We've travelled this route many times before, there's never anything in that part of the anchorage..."

    The crew were simply bored and not paying the attention they should have been. A common problem at sea, where you have to try and be alert for hours on long shifts.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,637
    noneoftheabove said:

    Daveyboy1961 said:

    DavidL said:

    williamglenn said:

    DavidL said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/trump_repost/status/1899482765084827828

    Why would our Country allow another Country to supply us with electricity, even for a small area? Who made these decisions, and why? And can you imagine Canada stooping so low as to use ELECTRICITY, that so affects the life of innocent people, as a bargaining chip and threat? They will pay a financial price for this so big that it will be read about in History Books for many years to come!

    But none of this applies to Israel preventing electricity being supplied to Gaza, apparently?

    The man is shameless.
    Starmer might have finally found the issue to back Canada over.
    Personally, I would like some joint training exercises to be organised with the Canadians as soon as possible.
    I wonder if the Canadian military leave has been cancelled...
    I suspect it will be timed to enable suspension of either the 2026 or 2028 elections.
    Exactly.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,240
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    OldKingCole said:

    Am I alone, or just marginally paranoid, in wondering whether there isn't something slightly suspicious about the ship 'collision' off the Humber yesterday?
    After all, it's not as though the tanker was moving. It was anchored. Even in fog it must have been visible for some distance.

    Many years ago I met the captain of a large oil tanker and he explained the stopping distance for boats like this huge.

    You can see the object but there’s bugger all you can do to stop or change direction.
    Changing direction is a different issue from stopping. And the tanker was stationary; it was the smaller, more manoeuvrable cargo vessel which hit it. I don't know what the tide was at the time, but I would have thought there was time to amend course sufficiently not to run slap-bank into the side of the tanker.
    However, someone's been arrested no so me might learn more soon.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,637
    RochdalePioneers said:

    OldKingCole said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    https://x.com/trump_repost/status/1899464660094423301

    Mark Carney should tell America to go fuck itself

    Mark Carney should ask the King to open the Canadian Parliament after the election.
    What a delicious idea! Supposedly Trump was most put out seeing the pictures of the King with Zelenskyy. So lets have Charles open the Canadian Parliament after the next election to really wind him up.
    Big Pants Boy Trumpski doesn't like when the other boys turn around and punch him back in the face.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,970
    Trump's foreplay to win over Canada as the 51st State seems to be straight out of his "grab 'em by the pussy" playbook....
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,294
    edited March 11
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    OldKingCole said:

    Am I alone, or just marginally paranoid, in wondering whether there isn't something slightly suspicious about the ship 'collision' off the Humber yesterday?
    After all, it's not as though the tanker was moving. It was anchored. Even in fog it must have been visible for some distance.

    Many years ago I met the captain of a large oil tanker and he explained the stopping distance for boats like this huge.

    You can see the object but there’s bugger all you can do to stop or change direction.
    Oh and time to quote 'More or Less ' again. It is not true. It is a myth. It is an old wives tale. I believe (but would have to check) it was 3 minutes to go through 180 degrees. As they said on More or Less when someone refers to the fact that something takes as long to turn an oil tanker your response should be 'Really, that quick'.

    Episode 13/9/2024
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,850
    OldKingCole said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    OldKingCole said:

    Am I alone, or just marginally paranoid, in wondering whether there isn't something slightly suspicious about the ship 'collision' off the Humber yesterday?
    After all, it's not as though the tanker was moving. It was anchored. Even in fog it must have been visible for some distance.

    Many years ago I met the captain of a large oil tanker and he explained the stopping distance for boats like this huge.

    You can see the object but there’s bugger all you can do to stop or change direction.
    Changing direction is a different issue from stopping. And the tanker was stationary; it was the smaller, more manoeuvrable cargo vessel which hit it. I don't know what the tide was at the time, but I would have thought there was time to amend course sufficiently not to run slap-bank into the side of the tanker.
    However, someone's been arrested no so me might learn more soon.
    Arrested does not mean guilty, and also does not mean intent. You can be guilty of a crime through incompetence, not direct intent.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,061
    He's a fucking idiot

    @mattyglesias

    Trump is creating a situation where if you import a whole airplane or refrigerator from Canada you will pay a lower tariff than if you import Canadian metal to a factory located in the United States.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,724
    It took 4,500 men to burn down the White House and Congress the last time that was necessary in 1812. Might need a few more this time.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,420
    bondegezou said:

    tlg86 said:

    I'd have still voted Democrat, but it's easy to see why they lost:

    https://x.com/SwipeWright/status/1899281710342156753

    Are any of those the Democratic Presidential candidate, or Democratic candidates of any sort?
    But the Dems won't disown these nutters.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,391
    Nigelb said:

    kamski said:

    rcs1000 said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/trump_repost/status/1899482765084827828

    Why would our Country allow another Country to supply us with electricity, even for a small area? Who made these decisions, and why? And can you imagine Canada stooping so low as to use ELECTRICITY, that so affects the life of innocent people, as a bargaining chip and threat? They will pay a financial price for this so big that it will be read about in History Books for many years to come!

    Errr: because the countries are friends and it lowers electricity prices, therefore increasing the competitiveness of American companies.
    does the US have any friends left? Not sure Russia counts - they are closer to China, Iran and North Korea.
    The US has plenty of friends. The Trump administration, not so much.
    You know those friends that disappear when things aren’t going well for you.

    Well we’ve discovered that the US is both having those type of problems and is that type of friend
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,118
    The elected GOP really are the most craven bunch of wimps Congress has even housed.

    Republicans snuck a provision into the rule for the CR that would preemptively surrender congressional authority to block tariffs.

    When House Republicans vote for this rule today, they will also be voting to support Trump's tariffs and all the resulting damage to the US economy.
    https://x.com/Fritschner/status/1899482408862237018
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,970
    noneoftheabove said:

    Daveyboy1961 said:

    DavidL said:

    williamglenn said:

    DavidL said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/trump_repost/status/1899482765084827828

    Why would our Country allow another Country to supply us with electricity, even for a small area? Who made these decisions, and why? And can you imagine Canada stooping so low as to use ELECTRICITY, that so affects the life of innocent people, as a bargaining chip and threat? They will pay a financial price for this so big that it will be read about in History Books for many years to come!

    But none of this applies to Israel preventing electricity being supplied to Gaza, apparently?

    The man is shameless.
    Starmer might have finally found the issue to back Canada over.
    Personally, I would like some joint training exercises to be organised with the Canadians as soon as possible.
    I wonder if the Canadian military leave has been cancelled...
    I suspect it will be timed to enable suspension of either the 2026 or 2028 elections.
    There's a helluva lot of history to happen between now and the 2026 elections.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,240
    JosiasJessop said:

    OldKingCole said:

    Am I alone, or just marginally paranoid, in wondering whether there isn't something slightly suspicious about the ship 'collision' off the Humber yesterday?
    After all, it's not as though the tanker was moving. It was anchored. Even in fog it must have been visible for some distance.

    I watched the excellent "What's up with shipping" channel on this yesterday, and from that, I reckon there's nothing suspicious at all.

    If I understand correctly, then the freighter takes this exact same route regularly. In addition, the navigation channels in the area are limited by the nearby windfarms, so big vessels cannot just go where they want.

    I would not be surprised if the crew were essentially on autopilot. "We've travelled this route many times before, there's never anything in that part of the anchorage..."

    The crew were simply bored and not paying the attention they should have been. A common problem at sea, where you have to try and be alert for hours on long shifts.
    I wouldn't be surprised if you're right. I didn't know about the freighters regular use of the route.
    As I said, maybe just marginal paranoia on my part. But with the current state of the world.....
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,951
    bondegezou said:

    Barnesian said:

    Labour is value here I think

    Just staked £20 on Labour

    You are a braver punter than I am. Despite all the problems Reform UK are currently having, by-elections are rarely good news for incumbent parties.
    But Labour got 22,358 with Reform second on 7,662. That's a big gap.

    In the polls, Labour are down 27% (but rising) and Reform are up 73% (and falling).

    Apply that and you get Labour on 16,321 and Reform on 13, 255.
    That's the raw figures. Obviously the turnout will be a lot lower so both parties votes will be a lot lower than this.
    Will Labour suffer because their exMP punched a guy. I don't think so. He's not standing again.
    Will Reform suffer because of their internal row? Not much but a little.
    And Labour probably has a better local "machine" to GOTV.

    So with a boosted 7/5 on Labour, I'm content to bet.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,294
    OldKingCole said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    OldKingCole said:

    Am I alone, or just marginally paranoid, in wondering whether there isn't something slightly suspicious about the ship 'collision' off the Humber yesterday?
    After all, it's not as though the tanker was moving. It was anchored. Even in fog it must have been visible for some distance.

    Many years ago I met the captain of a large oil tanker and he explained the stopping distance for boats like this huge.

    You can see the object but there’s bugger all you can do to stop or change direction.
    Changing direction is a different issue from stopping. And the tanker was stationary; it was the smaller, more manoeuvrable cargo vessel which hit it. I don't know what the tide was at the time, but I would have thought there was time to amend course sufficiently not to run slap-bank into the side of the tanker.
    However, someone's been arrested no so me might learn more soon.
    Isn't this a bit like the asteroid/earth issue? If we can see that an asteroid will hit Earth in 2 decades time, then it only needs a small nudge to avert disaster. But if its tomorrow then its a lot more effort needed.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,637
    Trump Overreach latest:

    "In the latest souring of relations between the North American neighbours, Mr Trump announced he would impose 50pc tariffs on all steel and aluminium coming into the US from Canada."

    Telegraph blog
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,850
    An aircraft carrier making sharp turns at speed:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kHX-qv-RVGg

    Although they are designed to be this maneuverable; large cargo ships are not.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,743
    rcs1000 said:

    kamski said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Trump threatening Canada again?

    Just following your mate Musk

    https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/elon-musk-canadian-citizenship-1.7468330

    'Monday, Musk responded to a post about the petition on his social media platform X saying "Canada is not a real country."'


    Is there anywhere that Tesla is expecting to sell cars in the future?
    Moscow, St Petersberg, Novosibirsk, Yekaterinburg,...

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,118
    ProPublica just obtained a remarkable directive to those remaining at USAID: Empty the safes with the classified and personnel records and then ...

    "Shred as many documents first, and reserve the burn bags for when the shredder becomes unavailable or needs a break."
    https://x.com/BrettMmurphy/status/1899485474088976605

    So Trump's admin wants to burn all the documents which might prove "rampant fraud and abuse" ?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,133
    rcs1000 said:

    kamski said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Trump threatening Canada again?

    Just following your mate Musk

    https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/elon-musk-canadian-citizenship-1.7468330

    'Monday, Musk responded to a post about the petition on his social media platform X saying "Canada is not a real country."'


    Is there anywhere that Tesla is expecting to sell cars in the future?
    Mars?
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,254
    When I was at school we used to line up outside the classroom and then if someone shouted "rammy" people would start pushing from each end of the line until the people in the middle collapsed in a heap on the floor.
    I bet none of yous soft English bastards got that in your fancy private schools!
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,254
    rottenborough said:

    Trump Overreach latest:

    "In the latest souring of relations between the North American neighbours, Mr Trump announced he would impose 50pc tariffs on all steel and aluminium coming into the US from Canada."

    Telegraph blog

    RIP the Anglosphere.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,240
    Barnesian said:

    bondegezou said:

    Barnesian said:

    Labour is value here I think

    Just staked £20 on Labour

    You are a braver punter than I am. Despite all the problems Reform UK are currently having, by-elections are rarely good news for incumbent parties.
    But Labour got 22,358 with Reform second on 7,662. That's a big gap.

    In the polls, Labour are down 27% (but rising) and Reform are up 73% (and falling).

    Apply that and you get Labour on 16,321 and Reform on 13, 255.
    That's the raw figures. Obviously the turnout will be a lot lower so both parties votes will be a lot lower than this.
    Will Labour suffer because their exMP punched a guy. I don't think so. He's not standing again.
    Will Reform suffer because of their internal row? Not much but a little.
    And Labour probably has a better local "machine" to GOTV.

    So with a boosted 7/5 on Labour, I'm content to bet.
    Also depends on whether Labour parachute in a candidate or select someone local.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,279
    So that's today's "I am the news" announcement then. Escalation of trade war with Canada. If he really was elected because of his supposed nous on the economy there will surely be a lot of wising-up going on. If not America is rather lost.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,407
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    OldKingCole said:

    Am I alone, or just marginally paranoid, in wondering whether there isn't something slightly suspicious about the ship 'collision' off the Humber yesterday?
    After all, it's not as though the tanker was moving. It was anchored. Even in fog it must have been visible for some distance.

    Many years ago I met the captain of a large oil tanker and he explained the stopping distance for boats like this huge.

    You can see the object but there’s bugger all you can do to stop or change direction.
    In the oil company, where I used to work, they would promote captains, when they retired from the sea at 50, to senior managers.

    Great fun to work for.

    One guy - retired from even the office, but working part time - was a very fierce Norwegian. Who’d run down an Iranian speedboat during the tanker war in the 80s.

    Apparently they’d done the usual “stop or we shoot” crap. He’d had the helm put hard over.

    Tankers don’t turn so much as slide sideways with emphasis. So Iranian boat met the side of the tanker - 250ktons moving at a dozen knots….
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,850
    OldKingCole said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    OldKingCole said:

    Am I alone, or just marginally paranoid, in wondering whether there isn't something slightly suspicious about the ship 'collision' off the Humber yesterday?
    After all, it's not as though the tanker was moving. It was anchored. Even in fog it must have been visible for some distance.

    I watched the excellent "What's up with shipping" channel on this yesterday, and from that, I reckon there's nothing suspicious at all.

    If I understand correctly, then the freighter takes this exact same route regularly. In addition, the navigation channels in the area are limited by the nearby windfarms, so big vessels cannot just go where they want.

    I would not be surprised if the crew were essentially on autopilot. "We've travelled this route many times before, there's never anything in that part of the anchorage..."

    The crew were simply bored and not paying the attention they should have been. A common problem at sea, where you have to try and be alert for hours on long shifts.
    I wouldn't be surprised if you're right. I didn't know about the freighters regular use of the route.
    As I said, maybe just marginal paranoia on my part. But with the current state of the world.....
    The carrier Harry S. Truman suffered minor damage in a collision near the Suez canal a few weeks ago.
    https://www.naval-technology.com/news/in-pictures-us-navy-aircraft-carrier-damaged-after-collision/

    And a few years back, seven USN sailors were killed in a collision:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Fitzgerald_and_MV_ACX_Crystal_collision

    These things happen. It is very different to the sudden spate of cables being damaged.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,118
    If Trump is going to adopt English as the official language of America then he should be paying royalties to England. Obviously we'll let Canada use it for free because a) they're nice and b) half of them prefer French anyway.
    https://x.com/EricIdle/status/1899181937148956955
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,951
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    OldKingCole said:

    Am I alone, or just marginally paranoid, in wondering whether there isn't something slightly suspicious about the ship 'collision' off the Humber yesterday?
    After all, it's not as though the tanker was moving. It was anchored. Even in fog it must have been visible for some distance.

    Many years ago I met the captain of a large oil tanker and he explained the stopping distance for boats like this huge.

    You can see the object but there’s bugger all you can do to stop or change direction.
    The USA is like a very large oil tanker with huge momentum.
    The captain thinks he has rapidly changed course but how about the ship?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,407
    JosiasJessop said:

    OldKingCole said:

    Am I alone, or just marginally paranoid, in wondering whether there isn't something slightly suspicious about the ship 'collision' off the Humber yesterday?
    After all, it's not as though the tanker was moving. It was anchored. Even in fog it must have been visible for some distance.

    I watched the excellent "What's up with shipping" channel on this yesterday, and from that, I reckon there's nothing suspicious at all.

    If I understand correctly, then the freighter takes this exact same route regularly. In addition, the navigation channels in the area are limited by the nearby windfarms, so big vessels cannot just go where they want.

    I would not be surprised if the crew were essentially on autopilot. "We've travelled this route many times before, there's never anything in that part of the anchorage..."

    The crew were simply bored and not paying the attention they should have been. A common problem at sea, where you have to try and be alert for hours on long shifts.
    The other one is that use of GPS way points can *increase* the chance of two ships trying to use the exact same piece of water.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,279
    edited March 11
    MoonRabbit said:

    Racing. Bloody Hell.

    I know! Imagine the placepot dividend (if not a rollover).
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,724
    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    When I was at school we used to line up outside the classroom and then if someone shouted "rammy" people would start pushing from each end of the line until the people in the middle collapsed in a heap on the floor.
    I bet none of yous soft English bastards got that in your fancy private schools!

    Softies. When my wife was at school she got a free school lunch for being a dinner monitor. When the doors opened everyone would sprint forward. She found a good kick in the balls of one of the front runners would cause a sufficient pile up behind to allow a queue to be formed.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,420
    The still image and the impact give the impression that no attempt was made to avoid collision.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,254
    DavidL said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    When I was at school we used to line up outside the classroom and then if someone shouted "rammy" people would start pushing from each end of the line until the people in the middle collapsed in a heap on the floor.
    I bet none of yous soft English bastards got that in your fancy private schools!

    Softies. When my wife was at school she got a free school lunch for being a dinner monitor. When the doors opened everyone would sprint forward. She found a good kick in the balls of one of the front runners would cause a sufficient pile up behind to allow a queue to be formed.
    Was this in Dundee perchance?
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