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Lowe will tear us apart – politicalbetting.com
Lowe will tear us apart – politicalbetting.com
Required reading for UK media. Coverage of this story implies bullying allegations are against MP @RupertLowe10 not against a member of his staff, as is the case. Reform’s broadbrush smears in hope our media don’t do detail. Post this??to your fave channel, mine’s @TimesRadio? https://t.co/lIonKr7T0E
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The growth of the right-wing media ecosystem will make it much harder for Farage to control the narrative this time.
It is possible (and again, I don't know the details, so I am just creating a theory here), that she was on duty half the time, and there were 20 deaths when she was on duty, and 2 when she was not.
The question -from a statistical point of view- is what would be the normal number of deaths? It is possible that you would expect 2-4 deaths in the period, and therefore when she was not on duty there were a normal number, and when she was, there was an abnormal.
In which case, excluding the deaths from the case isn't particular evidence of anything.
A much bigger issue to me is that statistical evidence on its own should not be enough to convict. Someone is going to win the lottery every week, even if the odds are 16 million to 1 against. That doesn't make them a cheat, that makes them the one person who - ah hem - won.
Farage will not be PM, he simply cannot form and hold a party together that is aligned in values and mission.
I now doubt they’ll even win that by-election.
There is the slimmest of slim chances that Nigel can hang all this around the neck of Zia Yusuf, and welcome Rupert Lowe back into the fold.
I don't think he can be seen to dismiss Yusuf whilst slaughtering the fatted ox for someone who has (afaik) spoken warmly of Tommy Robinson, but perhaps a grovelling apology and a period of silence from Yusuf would be enough. Change his role and take him off any communications duty.
Keir Starmer is the luckiest PM ever.
With that said, we've always allowed statistical evidence to some extend.
Going back 100 years, we've allowed blood type in. That's just statistical evidence: it doesn't tell you that [x] did it, but it does tell you that [x] is one of only 25% of the population who could have done it.
Statistical evidence is just circumstantial evidence.
And the key thing, though, is to make it clear its limits, and to make sure that it's only part of the evidence presented.
I really should just dump a load of money on Labour most seats.
He was a tosspot in 2016, but he still "won" Brexit.
There's a strong incumbency bias, the polling is usually only useful when somebody other than the PM leads it.
That's why net satisfaction/approval rating are a better metric.
I’m going to stick a load of money on Labour most seats.
I don’t like Farage fundamentally because I think he hates this country.
Now I am no expert. All I am saying is that experts in statistics have demolished the prosecution's statistical case, and medical experts have demolished the medical case. What we now need is for the CCRC to pull its finger out and not get stuck on legalistic arguments about whether these experts should have had crystal balls so they could have examined the trial before it took place.
How could a strategy be developed without a full analysis of this possibility?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jogbQyYyxSg&t=09s
I realise in hindsight that also Corbyn hates this country.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2025/03/09/rupert-lowe-reform-tried-to-silence-me-on-migration/
Starmer has performed well on the Trump crisis but let's not forget he is pro triple lock, wants to slash spending on disability benefits, also sacrificing foreign aid for defence, promoting a third runway at Heathrow, watering down rules on evs, anti free movement and joining the single market, all of which are conservative policies apart from the triple lock which they want to change
The mps sitting behind him are his problem going forward and if the last few weeks are anything to go by predicting a second Starmer term is wish casting
As for Farage, I hope Reform collapse but maybe we need to see because if Trump is anything to go by he retains considerable domestic US support which is frightening
It all has to be about Nigel.
That said, I am still on the fence regarding her guilt. The insulin levels, IIRC, were a particular concern that I think need to lead one to believe that a crime actually took place.
His entire approach was clearly self-interest related. What a tosser.
Both different kinds of fruitcakes.
Sixth Indian wicket taken by the Kiwis - may be too little too late. You just sense 275 would have been the ideal total.
On other matters - the Conservatives, although down to 20% in last night's Opinium poll, are going to be the winners from any Reform implosion. To be fair, the contradictions within Reform have always been there for all to see - indeed, beyond a hostility to immigration, there's not a lot holding the party together in policy terms.
Farage and Tice are unreconstructed Thatcherites wanting to cut public spending and taxes but there's another side to Reform and that's about supporting WWC areas with more money.
We're also seeing the emergence of the issue of re-migration whatever that means and however that might work.
India have won the cricket by the way.
Somebody spotted my subtle Joy Division reference.
What happened to her was awful, but she was unreliable and inconsistent in her evidence. In the absence of a charge and proper investigation of the crime it is hard to say whether she was raped, and if so by whom.
As I have already indicated, there are very good reason to treat the DNA results with considerable caution.
On the practice run, the Roadrunners looking very good indeed
So to the first run....very close but the Runners ahead throughout - then a fault from the Chasers, Runners 1:0
The second run...the Runners take it again, on 14.66 seconds. Can these Belgians be beaten?
I knew Trump 2 would be very bad but I wasn't expecting it to be this bad* so quickly
https://x.com/marcorubio/status/1898755922492588082
https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1898771652160389449
*Evil is the right adjective given how they've treated Ukraine.
Farage was the reason I never contemplated voting for the leave side.
On the practice run, very close between the two, Cambridge faster by a nose
So to the first round: Cambridge fast on the first two legs, a fault from the Aces, pushing to chase, Cambridge 1:0
Second round, the Aces substitute veteran Hustle for their last leg, but Cambridge lead throughout, Cambridge 2:0
So the widely anticipated final between the Brits from Cambridgeshire versus the Belgian record holders .. after a go at Sweet Caroline from the audience
A month before the alleged incident, Lee Anderson himself apologised to the House of Commons for bullying a member of staff of Parliament:
Lee Anderson Reform UK, Ashfield 1:21, 6 November 2024
With permission, Mr Speaker, I will make a personal statement, in compliance with the findings of the Independent Expert Panel in its report. I accept the findings of the panel and the Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards in full and without reservation.
On 23 November 2023, at the Derby Gate entrance, I was involved in an incident with a security guard. During the incident, I spoke to the complainant in a manner that was totally unacceptable, and which including swearing and other language that goes against the House of Commons bullying and harassment policy.
I would like to apologise to the complainant and to the House for my behaviour. Our security staff do an incredible job and should always be treated with the utmost respect. An MP’s behaviour must always be of a higher standard. I give you, Mr Speaker, and the House my firm assurance that I have learnt significant lessons through this process, and a firm undertaking that such behaviour on my part will never happen again.
https://www.theyworkforyou.com/debates/?id=2024-11-06f.316.0#g316.2
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=on-0q-8H8Pc
It’s not every week, or even every year, that there are (as per your example) 20 deaths on one shift and two on the following one.
FWIW, I have no view either way on the case itself.
Liverpool will win the title deservedly so
United's team today is not a premiership side.
First round, a fault from the Runners! Cambridge can stroll to a win...but now a fault from the reds! Another fault from the blues, Cambridge win 1:0
An upset in the offing here.. so close, but the Runners win through on their third and fourth legs. Evens at 1:1
So the deciding third run.... Cambridge start fast, but their second dog doesn't get the ball, a fault. Cambridge steam through with their fast finishing dog, and win through on 14.88 seconds.
The visiting Roadrunners from Belgium win yet again. Beep Beep!
And England took the principled stance we all wanted and didn’t turn up against Afghanistan. So morally we won the tournament.
The latter point, one would think, could be fairly easily confirmed or rebutted by testing the levels of a few thousand babies.
PS: my pre-season bet on Liverpool, hall of famer. Slot is the special one.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2012/nov/17/lib-dem-voters-eu-poll
You should be proud of that bet, Slot isn't the special one, he's the lucky one, according to so many opposing fans Liverpool haven't played anybody good this season.
The question remains: Sing Sing or Florence?
Plus Livingstone, Salt, etc.
Trump shows more respect to the two bit dictator that rules North Korea than he does to any of his supposed US allies in Europe. The room for triangulation is becoming non existent.
And, btw, little Marco, Russia already borders Poland.
But I wouldn't expect Trump to understand anything about history, even relativeky recent history.
all grade seven dogs. Mine is at grade three.