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If Farage doesn’t distance himself from the odious Trump then his polling might struggle

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  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,347

    https://x.com/jenniferjjacobs/status/1897617476394914209

    (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump's administration is planning to revoke temporary legal status for some 240,000 Ukrainians who fled the conflict with Russia, a senior Trump official and three sources familiar with the matter said, potentially putting them on a fast-track to deportation.

    He really is a nasty piece of work.

    I wonder what Sandpit makes of this... :(
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,798

    * War.
    The position of the opposition is not inconsequential in shaping the policy of government. A Labour government faced with an opposition led by Ken Clarke might have been rather more circumspect about involvement in Iraq for concern over the electoral consequences.
    See also covid, where Labour consistently opposed from the position of more-and-harder restrictions. In an alternative history where the opposition was of a more libertarian bent, decisions may have been different.
  • pm215pm215 Posts: 1,236

    Indeed. Post-war we bet big on the US remaining an essentially benign hegemon, resisting the alternative European security solutions on offer. That bet looks increasingly like a disastrous error.
    In the alternate universe where we'd bet big on a combined European security solution, we might now be worrying about having tied ourselves to a structure where many of the other participants were shifting worryingly towards the far right and might veto actions against e.g. Russia. Some kind of bet hedging would probably have been wise.
  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,605
    Cookie said:

    Yes, and yes: the period between the end of the cold war and the twin towers attack were without doubt the halcyon days. Remarkably worry-free. I also thought that the Labour government of the time was sub-optimal and that Britain would be better off outside of the EU, but neither of these things were in any way existentially troubling.
    Someone even wrote a book about it: “The End of History”.

    History, unfortunately, came back with a vengeance.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,794
    pm215 said:

    To be fair, the circa 2000 world was pretty good. Being born in 1977, my political and general "how the world ought to be" views are pretty firmly shaped by the period when I went to uni, got a first job, etc: post cold war and pre financial crisis. I try to avoid seething about anything, but am a pretty solid match for most of those stereotypes.

    Presumably there must be a lot of people who are in a similar late 40s age group but more on the rightward end of the political spectrum: do they also look back fondly on the circa 2000 world?
    You don't have to be left of centre to be in the Centrist Dads. Rory Stewart is the lead singer and he's a One Nation Tory.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,690
    Phil said:

    Yup. We need to get the French on side & start building our own SLICBMs if we want to credibly maintain our nuclear deterrent by the looks of things. Another expense the government could do without...

    (It doesn’t look like we can put French missiles in our launch tubes - unless we had the foresight to make them a few inches larger than they needed to be?)
    We could also have a chat with S Korea, who are developing (for now non nuclear) SLBMs.

    Though for now they're engaged in their own triangulation efforts with Trump.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,312
    edited March 6

    https://x.com/jenniferjjacobs/status/1897617476394914209

    (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump's administration is planning to revoke temporary legal status for some 240,000 Ukrainians who fled the conflict with Russia, a senior Trump official and three sources familiar with the matter said, potentially putting them on a fast-track to deportation.

    One concrete thing SKS and Macron could do to help Z is to round up and ship back Ukrainian draft dodgers in the UK and France. There's a lot...
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,794

    https://x.com/jenniferjjacobs/status/1897617476394914209

    (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump's administration is planning to revoke temporary legal status for some 240,000 Ukrainians who fled the conflict with Russia, a senior Trump official and three sources familiar with the matter said, potentially putting them on a fast-track to deportation.

    It can't be too long before the US starts bombing Kyiv.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,263
    edited March 6

    https://x.com/jenniferjjacobs/status/1897617476394914209

    (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump's administration is planning to revoke temporary legal status for some 240,000 Ukrainians who fled the conflict with Russia, a senior Trump official and three sources familiar with the matter said, potentially putting them on a fast-track to deportation.

    https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-plans-revoke-legal-status-ukrainians-who-fled-us-sources-say-2025-03-06/

  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,089

    He really is a nasty piece of work.

    I wonder what Sandpit makes of this... :(
    Absolutely despicable. At this point I wouldn’t be surprised if he ships them off to Russia .
  • glwglw Posts: 10,361
    carnforth said:

    I still have no idea whether the UK government bailing out OneWeb was prescience or brexit-spasm, but it's looking pretty good in retrospect.
    It was a good idea at the time, and has proved to be a brilliant decision now. Even after merging with Eutelsat we still have a golden share.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,798
    Phil said:

    Someone even wrote a book about it: “The End of History”.

    History, unfortunately, came back with a vengeance.
    I think - though I may be wrong - that the author of that book - Francis Fukuyama - is one of those unfortunate people whose fate it is that people remember him as making the exact opposite point to the one he actually made. I think - though I haven't read it - that his point was that 1991 was not the end of history and that all sorts of bad things would keep happening. He may even have given some prescient examples.

    See also - Epicurus. Who is remembered as someone who really liked tasty and exciting food, but whose point was that the quality of the food was almost entirely superfluous and that the quality of the company was the important thing.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,222
    kinabalu said:

    It can't be too long before the US starts bombing Kyiv.
    Apparently they're in discussions with Ukranian opposition leaders. Tymoshenko, Poroshenko. Zaluzhnyi (sp?) is another option for a reverse Nuland maidan attempt I think too.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,260

    https://x.com/jenniferjjacobs/status/1897617476394914209

    (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump's administration is planning to revoke temporary legal status for some 240,000 Ukrainians who fled the conflict with Russia, a senior Trump official and three sources familiar with the matter said, potentially putting them on a fast-track to deportation.

    Yep, there is absolutely no way Trump is a Putin shill and Russian asset.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,690

    You can buy commercial imagery down to 30cm resolution.

    Which is enough for nearly all tasks.

    The American military/NRO is a huge buyer of commercial imagery. There are orders of magnitude more commercial imagery satellites than military systems and their costs are vastly lower.
    It's not just imagery, though.
    Signals intelligence of all kinds is also something for which we depend heavily on the US.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,260
    Cookie said:

    The position of the opposition is not inconsequential in shaping the policy of government. A Labour government faced with an opposition led by Ken Clarke might have been rather more circumspect about involvement in Iraq for concern over the electoral consequences.
    See also covid, where Labour consistently opposed from the position of more-and-harder restrictions. In an alternative history where the opposition was of a more libertarian bent, decisions may have been different.
    Are you claiming the Iraq debacle for your party? I would have thought you wouldn't want to touch it with a bargepole.
  • Frank_BoothFrank_Booth Posts: 125
    What does Trump intend to give Ukraine sans Zelensky?

    He wants to re-impose an oligarch on them? I'm sure that will go down well.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,690
    Pulpstar said:

    Apparently they're in discussions with Ukranian opposition leaders. Tymoshenko, Poroshenko. Zaluzhnyi (sp?) is another option for a reverse Nuland maidan attempt I think too.
    That would be an act of war.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,222
    Nigelb said:

    That would be an act of war.
    https://www.politico.eu/article/donald-trump-allies-secret-talks-volodymyr-zelenskyy-opposition-ukraine-elections-yulia-tymoshenko-petro-poroshenko/
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,690
    A federal sales tax which excluded essentials like food would be quite progressive.

    BREAKING: The top 10% of earners in the U.S. now account for 49.7% of all spending in the US, per WSJ.
    https://x.com/unusual_whales/status/1897622439733182825
  • Frank_BoothFrank_Booth Posts: 125
    Phil said:

    Someone even wrote a book about it: “The End of History”.

    History, unfortunately, came back with a vengeance.
    A great book and important idea. Unfortunately nobody actually bothers to read it.
  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,605
    Cookie said:

    I think - though I may be wrong - that the author of that book - Francis Fukuyama - is one of those unfortunate people whose fate it is that people remember him as making the exact opposite point to the one he actually made. I think - though I haven't read it - that his point was that 1991 was not the end of history and that all sorts of bad things would keep happening. He may even have given some prescient examples.

    See also - Epicurus. Who is remembered as someone who really liked tasty and exciting food, but whose point was that the quality of the food was almost entirely superfluous and that the quality of the company was the important thing.
    He should have put a question mark at the end of the title then!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,762

    A great book and important idea. Unfortunately nobody actually bothers to read it.
    Well, it has an unfortunate title in the circumstances
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,938

    I disagree. Nato did the job it was designed to, as did most other UK-US relationships for many decades. The idea that a bet in the 1940s would last forever is ludicrous; those decisions were taken in the context of their time and the lifespan of arrangements.

    To the extent that the *current* UK reliance on the US puts it in an awful position, that's a result of failing to reconsider the arrangements despite the increasingly divergent paths the UK and more particularly US have taken since 2010 or so; repeating mantras of the past without confronting the realities of the present. It's still happening now, more for comfort-blanket purposes than as any useful policy.

    We have had at least a decade's warning that the US is not a reliable partner. Trump I should have been sufficient by itself but both Obama and Biden gave their own warnings, at much lower and more subtle levels. We knew a Trump return was highly possible well over a year ago - realistically, four years ago when he was let off his second impeachment. Both Starmer and Sunak before him should have set plans in place to prepare for this eventuality.

    But to return to the earlier point, US bases in the UK are a card Britain can play. We should not be afraid to note that it's in our hand, if pushed sufficiently.
    We'd have to look carefully at when the US partnership did the job for Brutain's interests.

    It didn't in Iraq, nor particularly in Afghanistan, where the U.S. essentially alsi saw the British
    involvement as an optional, expendable figleaf. I also would support the prevailing view of the Kosovo War, given what has since come to light about Hashim Thaci, the leader of the KLA, former President of Kosovo, and best friend of Blair, who is awaiting trial for war crimes.

    That leaves the 1949-89 40 years, where I fully agree with you. But the Tory hatred to engage with European defence since all that time has been part of the Eurosceptic, and Brexit, errors.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,562
    viewcode said:

    https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-plans-revoke-legal-status-ukrainians-who-fled-us-sources-say-2025-03-06/

    Ukrainian partisans whose primary focus is the democracy of Ukraine, rather than that of the USA would have every justification at this stage in attempting assassination on Trump, so I can understand this decision in the context of Trump's other decisions.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,798

    Are you claiming the Iraq debacle for your party? I would have thought you wouldn't want to touch it with a bargepole.
    I wouldn't call the Conservatives my party - though I certainly voted for them in 2001 (despite an excellent Labour candidate locally!). But yes, the Conservatives certainly bear a measure of responsibility for Iraq. The way an opposition oppositions has consequences.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,938
    I would also *not* support the prevailing view of the Kosovo War, that should ofcourse say below. It was the last NATO action of the '90s, I think.
  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,605
    edited March 6
    Nigelb said:

    It's not just imagery, though.
    Signals intelligence of all kinds is also something for which we depend heavily on the US.
    There’s a sizeable signals intelligence outfit down in Cornwall, tapping into undersea fibre optic cables & satellite comms: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GCHQ_Bude

    It’s in the public domain that the NSA pretty much paid for all of it.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,690
    Phil said:

    He should have put a question mark at the end of the title then!
    It was a bestseller anyway.
    The editor/publisher evidently didn't actually care whether anyone read it.

    I vaguely recall buying a copy and falling asleep after the first couple of pages. It's possibly still in the attic.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,347
    Phil said:

    There’s a sizeable signals intelligence outfit down in Cornwall, tapping into satellite comms: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GCHQ_Bude

    It’s in the public domain that the NSA pretty much paid for all of it.
    I've walked past that a couple of times. The security guards are very friendly. :)
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,276
    Cookie said:

    I think - though I may be wrong - that the author of that book - Francis Fukuyama - is one of those unfortunate people whose fate it is that people remember him as making the exact opposite point to the one he actually made. I think - though I haven't read it - that his point was that 1991 was not the end of history and that all sorts of bad things would keep happening. He may even have given some prescient examples.

    See also - Epicurus. Who is remembered as someone who really liked tasty and exciting food, but whose point was that the quality of the food was almost entirely superfluous and that the quality of the company was the important thing.
    Fukuyama has been misrepresented due to the title of his work - it was not meant to be taken literally (which would be ridiculous).

    He was arguing that once society gets to liberal democracy there is nowhere better to go from there. It is a very difficult assertion to argue against.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,693
    Phil said:

    He should have put a question mark at the end of the title then!
    He did in the original article:

    https://www.jstor.org/stable/24027184

    Perhaps the publisher of the book intervened...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,690
    What's the betting that they cave ?

    GOP lawmakers balk at Trump’s call to repeal CHIPS Act
    https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/5178662-trump-chips-act-repeal-gop-senators/
  • Frank_BoothFrank_Booth Posts: 125
    There has to be an implicit threat made to Trump that if he continues like this European leaders including the UK will call out his pro Putin sympathies. How much would that damage him? Are there people within the administration who would be prepared to walk? Are we having these conversations?

    As I said before maybe it is about time to start making a list of American companies to easily boycott.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,543
    Stocky said:

    Fukuyama has been misrepresented due to the title of his work - it was not meant to be taken literally (which would be ridiculous).

    He was arguing that once society gets to liberal democracy there is nowhere better to go from there. It is a very difficult assertion to argue against.
    Other than pointing out, er, recent history has smashed the complacency of liberal democracy in the face. Will it fight back?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,255
    Pulpstar said:

    https://www.politico.eu/article/donald-trump-allies-secret-talks-volodymyr-zelenskyy-opposition-ukraine-elections-yulia-tymoshenko-petro-poroshenko/
    All of those mentioned have said they do not support the idea and do not want elections in the middle of a war. It would be both impractical and destabilising.

    As an aside someoen should point out to Trump that the UK did not have an election for 10 years because of WW2. (Though there were by-elections)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,690

    Other than pointing out, er, recent history has smashed the complacency of liberal democracy in the face. Will it fight back?
    "I fear all we have done is to awaken a sleeping centrist dad.."
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,844

    It was discussed this morning on Sky ad even Sky accepted that this was labours responsibility as the previous governmet objected but then came the election

    You have this habit on pinning everything on the last government, but you are simply wrong this time
    Sky News who state "Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood has said she will be registering her "displeasure" and will be recommending the guidance is reversed - however, as the Sentencing Council is independent, she cannot order them to do so."

    That Sky News? https://news.sky.com/story/anger-over-two-tier-sentencing-as-justice-secretary-shabana-mahmood-rejects-new-guidelines-13322444

    Its very simple. The law as it stands makes sentencing independent of government. It had a consultation. Which ended in February 2024.

    So your complaint is that:
    The independent body,
    who did a consultation under the Tories,
    which is now publishing the results of that consultation,
    is doing something objectionable
    which is the fault of Labour

    Jenrick says Labour are "asleep at the wheel" for not objecting
    to the consultion
    which concluded in February 2024
    When the Tories Alex Chalk was "at the wheel"

    You see the problem? Especially when both sides think the new guidelines are daft and agree that a law change is needed?
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,302
    I would say that the period from 1989 to around 2008 and the GFC will be looked back at as a golden age. You could perhaps extend it out as far as circa 2012-2014 but your mileage would likely vary on that.

    The 1980s were an exciting decade but there was too much societal upheaval to be seen as a universally benign time to live, and the Soviet threat felt very real in parts of that decade.

    The 1990s feel like me to be the sweet spot, but I do think some of the trends that started then, such as the quiet (and in the end relatively uncontested) liberalisation of society, did continue into the noughties too.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,260
    ...

    Sky News who state "Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood has said she will be registering her "displeasure" and will be recommending the guidance is reversed - however, as the Sentencing Council is independent, she cannot order them to do so."

    That Sky News? https://news.sky.com/story/anger-over-two-tier-sentencing-as-justice-secretary-shabana-mahmood-rejects-new-guidelines-13322444

    Its very simple. The law as it stands makes sentencing independent of government. It had a consultation. Which ended in February 2024.

    So your complaint is that:
    The independent body,
    who did a consultation under the Tories,
    which is now publishing the results of that consultation,
    is doing something objectionable
    which is the fault of Labour

    Jenrick says Labour are "asleep at the wheel" for not objecting
    to the consultion
    which concluded in February 2024
    When the Tories Alex Chalk was "at the wheel"

    You see the problem? Especially when both sides think the new guidelines are daft and agree that a law change is needed?
    The prisons are full, Crown Court cases are taking five years to reach a judge. As you were.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,624

    A great book and important idea. Unfortunately nobody actually bothers to read it.
    "What we may be witnessing is not just the end of the Cold War, or the passing of a particular period of postwar history, but the end of history as such: that is, the end point of mankind's ideological evolution and the universalization of Western liberal democracy as the final form of human government. This is not to say that there will no longer be events to fill the pages of Foreign Affairs's yearly summaries of international relations, for the victory of liberalism has occurred primarily in the realm of ideas or consciousness and is as yet incomplete in the real or material world. But there are powerful reasons for believing that it is the ideal that will govern the material world in the long run. To understand how this is so, we must first consider some theoretical issues concerning the nature of historical change."

    Direct quote from the man himself in 1989. He believed that Western Liberal Democracy had won the argument.

    I think he is right by the way, but we are currently having some more spasms of "wouldn't a strong but benign dictator be better?" etc

    That and the theocracies of the world just don't want to get with the plan.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,302

    There has to be an implicit threat made to Trump that if he continues like this European leaders including the UK will call out his pro Putin sympathies. How much would that damage him? Are there people within the administration who would be prepared to walk? Are we having these conversations?

    As I said before maybe it is about time to start making a list of American companies to easily boycott.

    The GOP don’t care. He’s captured them, and even the ones that aren’t card-carrying members of The Cult seem to be willing to stay quiet. I doubt there are enough of those willing to stick their heads above the parapet to make any meaningful difference now.

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,260
    ...

    Other than pointing out, er, recent history has smashed the complacency of liberal democracy in the face. Will it fight back?
    Liberal democracy is dead. Autocracies would appear to be the future. Trump could be a dry run for Nige.
  • Frank_BoothFrank_Booth Posts: 125
    Leon said:

    Well, it has an unfortunate title in the circumstances
    The original essay came out in 1989 BEFORE the Berlin Wall came down. It wasn't the statement of triumph people thought. Could a better title have been considered? Maybe. But you can't expect an article designed for progressive intellectuals to get popular interest.

    Whether you think it an unfortunate title, watch some of lectures on youtube. They're magnificent.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,543
    Nigelb said:

    "I fear all we have done is to awaken a sleeping centrist dad.."
    Perhaps Dura Ace can sing it a lullaby?
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,798

    There has to be an implicit threat made to Trump that if he continues like this European leaders including the UK will call out his pro Putin sympathies. How much would that damage him? Are there people within the administration who would be prepared to walk? Are we having these conversations?

    As I said before maybe it is about time to start making a list of American companies to easily boycott.

    Tesla would be an obvious one to start with. And Twitter.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,543

    ...

    Liberal democracy is dead. Autocracies would appear to be the future. Trump could be a dry run for Nige.
    Perhaps Liberal democracy's problem is you can't make enough money under it - by fair means or foul?

    People will always find a way to circumvent it in the name of a quick buck?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,260

    Sky News who state "Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood has said she will be registering her "displeasure" and will be recommending the guidance is reversed - however, as the Sentencing Council is independent, she cannot order them to do so."

    That Sky News? https://news.sky.com/story/anger-over-two-tier-sentencing-as-justice-secretary-shabana-mahmood-rejects-new-guidelines-13322444

    Its very simple. The law as it stands makes sentencing independent of government. It had a consultation. Which ended in February 2024.

    So your complaint is that:
    The independent body,
    who did a consultation under the Tories,
    which is now publishing the results of that consultation,
    is doing something objectionable
    which is the fault of Labour

    Jenrick says Labour are "asleep at the wheel" for not objecting
    to the consultion
    which concluded in February 2024
    When the Tories Alex Chalk was "at the wheel"

    You see the problem? Especially when both sides think the new guidelines are daft and agree that a law change is needed?
    BBC Verify on WATO is suggesting that there is likely to be anomalous sentencing based on ethnicity.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,370

    https://x.com/jenniferjjacobs/status/1897617476394914209

    (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump's administration is planning to revoke temporary legal status for some 240,000 Ukrainians who fled the conflict with Russia, a senior Trump official and three sources familiar with the matter said, potentially putting them on a fast-track to deportation.

    I wonder if Victoria Sparz could actually defect to the Democrats over this: she quit the Republicans, but still voted Johnson for speaker.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,798

    ...

    Liberal democracy is dead. Autocracies would appear to be the future. Trump could be a dry run for Nige.
    I really don't agree with any of that Pete.
    We face a challenging future. But I remain faithful that Liberal Democracies will win because Liberal Democracies will deliver a better standard of living. They are not however a steady state and will always face challenges and setbacks.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,543

    ...

    Liberal democracy is dead. Autocracies would appear to be the future. Trump could be a dry run for Nige.
    A plea: if we are doomed to having an autcorat, can't we please find one better than Nige?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,807
    edited March 6

    Jenrick would know this (Leon and the Daily Mail, not so much).
    Would know what? You appear to think the above words refute Jenrick's statements - they don't. Dredging rivers has been de-facto banned in the UK, not by being banned, but by introducing a mountain of red tape for anyone who wants to do something as simple as dredge a river. The reporting mentioned is clearly a powerful disincentive, hence it being applied to the case of pregnant women. Indeed this is very clear from the text, where it alleges that people from ethnic minorities face 'disadvantages...within the criminal justice system' and 'disparities in sentencing outcomes', which clearly this new advice is attempting to redress.

    If a person in authority were to be found filling in 'too many' of these reports for ethnic minority defendants, would that person face investigation? I strongly suspect so, and so would anybody faced with the task.

    This is a codified perversion of the principle of justice before the law.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,260

    Perhaps Liberal democracy's problem is you can't make enough money under it - by fair means or foul?

    People will always find a way to circumvent it in the name of a quick buck?
    Hmm. Baroness Michelle Mone is waving at you.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,302

    A plea: if we are doomed to having an autcorat, can't we please find one better than Nige?
    As much as I dislike Farage, as unpleasant as he is I find him much more tolerable than some of his fellow travellers.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,260

    What does Trump intend to give Ukraine sans Zelensky?

    Trump Resort Kyiv?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,260

    A plea: if we are doomed to having an autcorat, can't we please find one better than Nige?
    30p?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,690

    Sky News who state "Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood has said she will be registering her "displeasure" and will be recommending the guidance is reversed - however, as the Sentencing Council is independent, she cannot order them to do so."

    That Sky News? https://news.sky.com/story/anger-over-two-tier-sentencing-as-justice-secretary-shabana-mahmood-rejects-new-guidelines-13322444

    Its very simple. The law as it stands makes sentencing independent of government. It had a consultation. Which ended in February 2024.

    So your complaint is that:
    The independent body,
    who did a consultation under the Tories,
    which is now publishing the results of that consultation,
    is doing something objectionable
    which is the fault of Labour

    Jenrick says Labour are "asleep at the wheel" for not objecting
    to the consultion
    which concluded in February 2024
    When the Tories Alex Chalk was "at the wheel"

    You see the problem? Especially when both sides think the new guidelines are daft and agree that a law change is needed?
    I've already suggested a simple fix.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,807

    Ahem. As perhaps PB's most typical 'centrist dad', I've pointed out a fair few times over the years that Russia would be looking to fund anti-fracking and general environmental groups. The response to which was often: "But they're an oil and gas power! Why would they try to stop oil and gas extraction?"

    Which was a rather silly response, as fracking could reduce demand for O&G from Russia, so banning it in the UK could help Russia; and Russia was more interested in fomenting division in the west, and environmental groups do that very well.

    So no, this one, at least, was not silent.

    (In fact, I went further and said that Russia might well fund both sides of a contentious issue, if that issue would sow discord in an enemy country.)
    Well good for you, though I am not sure they would ever push pro-UK hydrocarbon messaging.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 938

    BBC Verify on WATO is suggesting that there is likely to be anomalous sentencing based on ethnicity.
    Wendy Joseph has just explained the background and facts of it all on WATO.
    The PSR is additional information for the Judge to consider in sentencing, it does not set guidelines for the sentence.

    Now back to the usual suspects block-posting Jenrick's deliberate misrepresentation of it
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,260
    Cookie said:

    I really don't agree with any of that Pete.
    We face a challenging future. But I remain faithful that Liberal Democracies will win because Liberal Democracies will deliver a better standard of living. They are not however a steady state and will always face challenges and setbacks.

    Everything is cyclical. We are at the point in the cycle where autocracies are ( ironically) being voted in by democratic means. The trouble is autocrats don't like relinquishing the power they won. January 6th showed you this.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,817

    From Guardian reporting:

    Yesterday Lord Justice William Davis, chairman of the Sentencing Council for England and Wales, issued a statement defending the new guidelines criticised by Robert Jenrick and Shabana Mahmood. He said:

    One of the purposes of the revised Imposition of community and custodial sentences guideline is to make sure that the courts have the most comprehensive information available so that they can impose a sentence that is the most appropriate for the offender and the offence and so more likely to be effective. The guideline emphasises the crucial role played by pre-sentence reports (PSRs) in this process and identifies particular cohorts for whom evidence suggests PSRs might be of particular value to the court. The reasons for including groups vary but include evidence of disparities in sentencing outcomes, disadvantages faced within the criminal justice system and complexities in circumstances of individual offenders that can only be understood through an assessment.

    PSRs provide the court with information about the offender; they are not an indication of sentence. Sentences are decided by the independent judiciary, following sentencing guidelines and taking into account all the circumstances of the individual offence and the individual offender.

    Nothing in there refutes what Mahmood and Jenrick are saying though? He's actually saying we will be moving to two tier justice in many more words than necessary. Hopefully Labour abolish this body and shit can this idea because it's wrong. Crime is crime whether it's been perpetrated by a rich white woman or a poor black man, it's still crime.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,370
    Leon said:

    You seem very up on this. You still haven’t told us how the courts will identify the ethnicity of the offender? Do they have a colour chart? A pencil?

    Seems important because falling in “the right ethnic cohort” gives you a better chance of avoiding jail
    Presumably they'll simply allow self ID.
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 931
    Nigelb said:

    Ireland is the Susan Collins of Europe.

    Ireland committed $108 mn in aid to Ukraine, focusing on non-lethal military support

    “There is no doubt that this is a very, very serious development,” Irish Deputy PM said, expressing concerns about the US' recent pause in military aid

    https://x.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1897318186095157293

    If France extends its nuclear umbrella to E Europe, maybe the UK's could cover Ireland?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,690

    A plea: if we are doomed to having an autcorat, can't we please find one better than Nige?
    Oi !
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,762
    edited March 6
    Dopermean said:

    Wendy Joseph has just explained the background and facts of it all on WATO.
    The PSR is additional information for the Judge to consider in sentencing, it does not set guidelines for the sentence.

    Now back to the usual suspects block-posting Jenrick's deliberate misrepresentation of it

    A PSR more likely leads to a non-custodial sentence. It is advantageous. These guidelines, giving more PSRs to ethnic minorities, trans people, Muslims etc -therefore disadvantage white males and therefore mean white males are more likely to go prison simply for being white. They are racist

    Furthermore, can you answer the question that @bondegezou has failed to answer. How do you determine the ethnicity of the offendant? Is there a colour chart? A pencil test? What? Seems quite important. What do you do if they are mixed race, how many drops of blood constitute "mixed"?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,260
    Dopermean said:

    Wendy Joseph has just explained the background and facts of it all on WATO.
    The PSR is additional information for the Judge to consider in sentencing, it does not set guidelines for the sentence.

    Now back to the usual suspects block-posting Jenrick's deliberate misrepresentation of it
    Her explanation couldn't have been clearer.

    I felt the BBC Verify guy was nervous that he was failing in BBC non-partisanship rules and didn't have someone like Andrea Jenkyns to balance his facts with her opinion.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,690
    Dopermean said:

    Wendy Joseph has just explained the background and facts of it all on WATO.
    The PSR is additional information for the Judge to consider in sentencing, it does not set guidelines for the sentence.

    Now back to the usual suspects block-posting Jenrick's deliberate misrepresentation of it
    Point is that the PSR is to be provided preferentially only for certain groups.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,222
    Nigelb said:

    Point is that the PSR is to be provided preferentially only for certain groups.
    & race and religion should not be amongst them.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,260
    Nigelb said:

    Point is that the PSR is to be provided preferentially only for certain groups.
    She explained that was because these groups are currently disadvantaged. Although I see your point. Inclusivity for all groups would resolve the problem.

    I do believe Jenrick has seen a racial grift to claim his brownie points.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,979
    Leon said:


    A PSR more likely leads to a non-custodial sentence. It is advantageous. These guidelines, giving more PSRs to ethnic minorities, trans people, Muslims etc -therefore disadvantage white males and therefore mean white males are more likely to go prison simply for being white. They are racist

    Furthermore, can you answer the question that @bondegezou has failed to answer. How do you determine the ethnicity of the offendant? Is there a colour chart? A pencil test? What? Seems quite important. What do you do if they are mixed race, how many drops of blood constitute "mixed"?
    This proposal is surely dead in the water though. Independent or not, someone will now be leant on and it'll be dropped. Sir Keir isn't going to war over this particular barnacle.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,517

    If France extends its nuclear umbrella to E Europe, maybe the UK's could cover Ireland?
    Not unless they start releasing more Guinness.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,177
    edited March 6
    MaxPB said:

    Nothing in there refutes what Mahmood and Jenrick are saying though? He's actually saying we will be moving to two tier justice in many more words than necessary. Hopefully Labour abolish this body and shit can this idea because it's wrong. Crime is crime whether it's been perpetrated by a rich white woman or a poor black man, it's still crime.
    No one is actually disputing that. These reports are for post conviction sentencing when the rich white woman or the poor black man has already been convicted.

    The purpose of the report is to work out what is best to do with the convict. Several factors will be relevant, their age, their criminal record, their risk assessment, etc.

    What the statistics show is that if the convict is that poor black man he is much more likely to end up in jail than the rich white woman. A report that sets out more productive penalties, such as requiring the convict to work on his predilection to commit a certain offence will be of assistance to the court and can seek to remedy that bias in the system.

    I remain a bit twitchy about this on the basis that it is an important principle that convicts are treated the same for the same crime. But if that is not currently the case it does not seem contrary to that principle to seek to address it.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,762
    rcs1000 said:

    Presumably they'll simply allow self ID.
    Yay, so we can all simply self declare as "Inuit" and we all get PSRs. Perfect
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,222
    The PSR row reminds me of Students for Fair Admissions v. Harvard, 600 U.S. 181 (2023)

    SCOTUS was right then, scrapping ethnicity checks for PSR is right now.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,660
    Leon said:


    A PSR more likely leads to a non-custodial sentence. It is advantageous. These guidelines, giving more PSRs to ethnic minorities, trans people, Muslims etc -therefore disadvantage white males and therefore mean white males are more likely to go prison simply for being white. They are racist

    Furthermore, can you answer the question that @bondegezou has failed to answer. How do you determine the ethnicity of the offendant? Is there a colour chart? A pencil test? What? Seems quite important. What do you do if they are mixed race, how many drops of blood constitute "mixed"?
    They use the same test as your plan for tax cuts for white babies?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,543
    rcs1000 said:

    Trump isn't interested in facts, he's interested in replacing Zelenskky with someone who will surrender to Russia.
    Whilst getting him the Nobel Peace Prize in the process.

    Might it be helpful if the Committee put out a release that "No way on God's Earth are you ever - EVER - getting a Peace Prize.

    And your approach to Economics isn't looking a great shot to get one either...."
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,762

    They use the same test as your plan for tax cuts for white babies?
    I imagine they must. I cannot see how else they usefully differentiate, rather than just allowing everyone to self identify as whatever they like, rendering the whole thing absurd
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,817

    Sky News who state "Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood has said she will be registering her "displeasure" and will be recommending the guidance is reversed - however, as the Sentencing Council is independent, she cannot order them to do so."

    That Sky News? https://news.sky.com/story/anger-over-two-tier-sentencing-as-justice-secretary-shabana-mahmood-rejects-new-guidelines-13322444

    Its very simple. The law as it stands makes sentencing independent of government. It had a consultation. Which ended in February 2024.

    So your complaint is that:
    The independent body,
    who did a consultation under the Tories,
    which is now publishing the results of that consultation,
    is doing something objectionable
    which is the fault of Labour

    Jenrick says Labour are "asleep at the wheel" for not objecting
    to the consultion
    which concluded in February 2024
    When the Tories Alex Chalk was "at the wheel"

    You see the problem? Especially when both sides think the new guidelines are daft and agree that a law change is needed?
    The Tories objected to this when they were in power. Labour didn't do so because they took their eye off the ball, these stupid ideas were allowed to go forwards and now Labour are finding they can't reverse them. It is Labour's mistake but they can rectify it by simply abolishing the body that recommended this idiotic idea and bring the accountability back to Parliament.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,983

    Whilst getting him the Nobel Peace Prize in the process.

    Might it be helpful if the Committee put out a release that "No way on God's Earth are you ever - EVER - getting a Peace Prize.

    And your approach to Economics isn't looking a great shot to get one either...."
    The Art of the Deal might win him the Literature prize, as a work of fiction.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,817
    DavidL said:

    No one is actually disputing that. These reports are for post conviction sentencing when the rich white woman or the poor black man has already been convicted.

    The purpose of the report is to work out what is best to do with the convict. Several factors will be relevant, their age, their criminal record, their risk assessment, etc.

    What the statistics show is that if the convict is that poor black man he is much more likely to end up in jail than the rich white woman. A report that sets out more productive penalties, such as requiring the convict to work on his predilection to commit a certain offence will be of assistance to the court and can seek to remedy that bias in the system.

    I remain a bit twitchy about this on the basis that it is an important principle that convicts are treated the same for the same crime. But if that is not currently the case it does not seem contrary to that principle to seek to address it.
    Again, this is advocating for different outcomes for the same crime based on someone race or other immutable characteristic. It's fundamentally wrong and Labour would do well to abolish the body and make a big song and dance about how they abolished the body suggesting two tier sentencing.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,762
    edited March 6
    MaxPB said:

    The Tories objected to this when they were in power. Labour didn't do so because they took their eye off the ball, these stupid ideas were allowed to go forwards and now Labour are finding they can't reverse them. It is Labour's mistake but they can rectify it by simply abolishing the body that recommended this idiotic idea and bring the accountability back to Parliament.
    I don't believe Labour took their eye off the ball at all. I reckon they were absolutelty fine with it (Mahmood's Dept has been informed of all this all along). They are so Soaked in Woke they didn't see a problem until Bobby J came in with his Brexit Tackle in the Commons, and now they are all over the place

  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,263
    Stocky said:

    Fukuyama has been misrepresented due to the title of his work - it was not meant to be taken literally (which would be ridiculous).

    He was arguing that once society gets to liberal democracy there is nowhere better to go from there. It is a very difficult assertion to argue against.
    I don't think there's a "better". Politics isn't universal and eternal, it's always dependent on time and place. Liberal Democracy worked fine during the 20th century and uplifted people to a much better place compared to Fascism and Communism. But we now have far greater ability to monitor people than Orwell or the Stasi ever dreamt of, and people are reacting by replacing freedom with safety and conformity as priorities. Consequently it may well be that Authoritarian Populism will work better in the 21st.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,637
    Leon said:

    Yay, so we can all simply self declare as "Inuit" and we all get PSRs. Perfect
    Wicked!
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,260

    The Art of the Deal might win him the Literature prize, as a work of fiction.
    If only he'd written it (or even read it).
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,260
    I would like to thank Leon for his colourful avatar. It is so distinctive that scrolling past is a breeze.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,762
    edited March 6
    MaxPB said:

    Again, this is advocating for different outcomes for the same crime based on someone race or other immutable characteristic. It's fundamentally wrong and Labour would do well to abolish the body and make a big song and dance about how they abolished the body suggesting two tier sentencing.
    Quite

    Keir Starmer is already known, contemptuously, as Two Tier Kier. If he now introduces literal official "two tier sentencing", for different races, in the lawbooks (or legal "guidelines") he will certainly never escape it

    And again, chapeau to Jenrick who saw the political opportunity and came in studs up, clattering Mahmood into the pavilion. Impressive. He has keen political skills
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,817

    If France extends its nuclear umbrella to E Europe, maybe the UK's could cover Ireland?
    After the way Ireland has behaved for the last 9 years? No thanks.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,762

    I would like to thank Leon for his colourful avatar. It is so distinctive that scrolling past is a breeze.

    I'm glad someone noticed, even if it was one of my normal disciples, ie you

    I worked hard on that, to make it stand out
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,222
    MaxPB said:

    After the way Ireland has behaved for the last 9 years? No thanks.
    Even before then. Remember way back when they were in a hole and our chancellor (Osborne) bailed them out whilst they did sweet FA about undercutting our corp tax ?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,104

    If France extends its nuclear umbrella to E Europe, maybe the UK's could cover Ireland?
    Because, once Trump has Greenland, Ireland will be next?

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,637
    Cookie said:

    I really don't agree with any of that Pete.
    We face a challenging future. But I remain faithful that Liberal Democracies will win because Liberal Democracies will deliver a better standard of living. They are not however a steady state and will always face challenges and setbacks.

    Must I repeat Winston Churchill's 1947 quote on democracy?
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,089
    I know Starmer is desperately trying to maintain this juggling act but he’s beginning to look like a band member on the decks of the Titanic .
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,214
    Cookie said:

    I wouldn't call the Conservatives my party - though I certainly voted for them in 2001 (despite an excellent Labour candidate locally!). But yes, the Conservatives certainly bear a measure of responsibility for Iraq. The way an opposition oppositions has consequences.
    Labour would have lost the vote on Iraq if the Tories had voted against. Duncan Smith's position was critical to the outcome.

    So was Clare Short's. Had she opposed it, she'd have brought probably quite a lot of other MPs with her. Whips were actively using the line that 'Clare's all right with it, so rely on her'. She'd also likely have given a more emotional resignation speech than Cook did.

    But yes, the chain reaction of events did lead from Miliband's opposition to Obama calling off action in Syria.

    That said, I'd have voted against myself on the basis proposed. If you're going to intervene in a war you need to decide what outcome you want and devote resources and plans to that end. Neither Obama nor Cameron ever said who they wanted to win the war at that stage, nor how they'd try to bring that about, and the actions were more a slap on the wrists for Assad than anything meaningful - a gesture rather than a policy.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,260
    ...
    nico67 said:

    I know Starmer is desperately trying to maintain this juggling act but he’s beginning to look like a band member on the decks of the Titanic .

    And he is still trying to negotiate with the iceberg.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,798
    Leon said:

    I don't believe Labour took their eye off the ball at all. I reckon they were absolutelty fine with it (Mahmood's Dept has been informed of all this all along). They are so Soaked in Woke they didn't see a problem until Bobby J came in with his Brexit Tackle in the Commons, and now they are all over the place

    "Didn't see the problem" is exactly it - whether it was politicians or functionaries. Why wouldn't we want to have harsher sentences for white people? It won't even strike the authors as having the potential for controversy. Every bit of government needs to contain an edict about giving special treatment to minorities, and this was no different.
This discussion has been closed.