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If Farage doesn’t distance himself from the odious Trump then his polling might struggle
If Farage doesn’t distance himself from the odious Trump then his polling might struggle – politicalbetting.com
In 2.5 weeks, Donald Trump has gone from a +38 net favourability rating among Reform UK voters to -8All BritonsFavourable: 15% (-7 from 16-17 Feb)Unfavourable: 80% (+7)Reform UK votersFavourable: 45% (-21)Unfavourable: 53% (+25)yougov.co.uk/politics/art…
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I watched all of Trumps one hour forty mins speech yesterday, and despite his odious policy making, there’s no doubting that it was a tremendous political performance.
I would just take issue with the second paragraph. You draw an equivalence between Russia and other regional powers that may or may not be true. Historically Russia was far more than a regional power and there is evidence that Putin harks back to that history as his legitimating myth. The potential downside of Russia being more comparable to Germany in
the 1930s is huge. I don't doubt that many on here are overstating the likelihood of this latter comparison, but it's worth insuring ourselves against it if possible.
I agree, though, that this shouldn't be to the exclusion of attempting to defend ourselves against China's more subtle and nefarious infiltration of our economy and society in the ways you mention.
If we beef up our military, including intelligence, this won't just help us counter Russian aggression - it will also help us counter the Chinese (and potentially US) variants. It still probably will be woefully inadequate, but it is worth making the attempt.
Also, fascinating that Ladbrokes have Hamilton and Leclerc now tied at 5.5, whereas Betfair has them at 9.2 and 6.2 respectively.
The Chinese are doing what the Chinese do and sit patiently, ready to take advantage of the incongruities in the US strategies. Already Trump is indicating he's losing interest in Europe and off to 'do something' about Gaza. Perhaps the dull, pedantic approach of your favourite lawyer will come in useful at this juncture.
For example, it's funding of environmental groups in Poland with the goal of getting fracking banned. (Which I admit, I am particularly sore about, as I owned a large chunk of Poland's shale gas assets at the time. And I completely missed the political risk.)
It has also bribed politicians across Eastern Europe (and one of the reasons why Putin thought the Ukraine war would be over so quickly was because he thought he'd bought everyone that mattered.)
There are also the Troll Farms (in particular the Internet Research Agency in St Petersberg) that seek to spread disinformation, sow discord (and probably influence elections).
And finally, it has killed people on British soil.
Personally, I treat Russia as a pretty hostile state.
It’s difficult though for Lab and the Cons to go after him on Trump . But Putin should be an open goal .
Indeed all those Trump Putin loving right wing politicians in Europe must be just a little bit nervous.
If the US sticks tariffs on the EU not sure it’s a good look to be fawning over Trump .
You. Not him
Trump wants America to become North Korea. That's fine, you get what you vote for. NATO is a relic of the cold war anyway, time to build something new. Or something old, when Europe used to be military power and the colonialists sat fighting each other.
For all that Ukraine is important, it is the canary in the coal mine. Europe is going to struggle to defend Ukraine with the US switching sides to join the Axis. But the needs of Ukraine show the needs of Europe. We may not be able to resist Putin in Ukraine, but their fight means we will resist him elsewhere. Trump too.
It may still be our least worst option for a powerful ally, but that's just a measure of how far we have fallen, rather than saying anything good about China.
Depending on how much is eventually ceded to Russia, that will be added to the future Russian threat.
Or to Europe's defences.
Our choice.
That said, Russia has consistently been a hostile power that aggressively projects (China is much more low key and strategic) - witness Salisbury and other less known incidents.
They are also bogged down and overextended in Ukraine. Now is a chance to significantly damage them at relatively low cost. It’s also been British policy for generations - we provide the money and the material and let others do the dying.
The reason why Biden didn’t take his chance was fear of what might follow / chaos if Putin was defeated. That was a grave error but he was stuck in the past and yearned for the certainties of the 70s and 80s when he was at his peak
An alternative way of reframing the original question is this:
We can imagine that, over centuries, a person could easily have at least 5,000 descendants. Similarly, we can imagine that if we go back a few centuries, each of us will have at least 5,000 ancestors. Both are easily imaginable given four or five centuries to play with.
So let’s take a midpoint in the more than ten centuries between ourselves and a figure from the Dark Ages - during the reign of Henry VIII, say. Living in Britain at that time are say five million people, which will include those 5,000 descendants of our Dark Ages guy and also our own 5,000 ancestors.
The only way that we are not related to them is if none of those first 5,000 paired up with any of the second 5,000.
Here we run into another bit of maths that people can struggle with, most often encountered at school as the birthday paradox - ‘how many people do you need to have a 50:50 chance of two of them having the same birthday?’, to which the answer is a surprisingly low 23. Because unlikely events - any two people sharing a birthday - quickly become more likely if they only need to happen once out of a growing number of permutations.
So, back to the era of that medieval Trump, and the maths for those 5,000 ancestors looking for partners among five million souls is that, marrying at random, the chances of at least one of them pairing up with at least one of the 5,000 descendants is over 99%. QED.
The new axis of evil has formed .
What Trump has done in the last week has ensured thousands if not hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians die or are subjugated and that's not a normal screw up, that's evil, thankfully even Reform voters have seen the light.
But would he actually send US military equipment to Russia? My guess is no: I just can't see it.
A lot of issues we need to be wary of, but China is stable in ways that most other countries can only dream of.
Macron seems to be planning extending the French nuclear deterrent to Eastern Europe.
I can't see a way of preventing that without European boots on the ground.
Of course there'll be a few 'tankies' but they will be a minority.
Nate Silver is going to be making his polling database publicly available:
https://substack.com/home/post/p-158462587
As I pass through my incarnations in every age and race,
I make my proper prostrations to the Gods of the Market-Place.
Peering through reverent fingers I watch them flourish and fall,
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings, I notice, outlast them all.
We were living in trees when they met us. They showed us each in turn
That Water would certainly wet us, as Fire would certainly burn:
But we found them lacking in Uplift, Vision and Breadth of Mind,
So we left them to teach the Gorillas while we followed the March of Mankind.
We moved as the Spirit listed. They never altered their pace,
Being neither cloud nor wind-borne like the Gods of the Market Place,
But they always caught up with our progress, and presently word would come
That a tribe had been wiped off its icefield, or the lights had gone out in Rome.
With the Hopes that our World is built on they were utterly out of touch.
They denied that the Moon was Stilton; they denied she was even Dutch.
They denied that Wishes were Horses; they denied that a Pig had Wings.
So we worshipped the Gods of the Market Who promised these beautiful things.
When the Cambrian measures were forming, They promised perpetual peace.
They swore, if we gave them our weapons, that the wars of the tribes would cease.
But when we disarmed They sold us and delivered us bound to our foe,
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings said: "Stick to the Devil you know."
On the first Feminian Sandstones we were promised the Fuller Life
(Which started by loving our neighbour and ended by loving his wife)
Till our women had no more children and the men lost reason and faith,
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings said: "The Wages of Sin is Death."
In the Carboniferous Epoch we were promised abundance for all,
By robbing selected Peter to pay for collective Paul;
But, though we had plenty of money, there was nothing our money could buy,
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings said: "If you don't work you die."
Then the Gods of the Market tumbled, and their smooth-tongued wizards withdrew,
And the hearts of the meanest were humbled and began to believe it was true
That All is not Gold that Glitters, and Two and Two make Four—
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings limped up to explain it once more.
As it will be in the future, it was at the birth of Man—
There are only four things certain since Social Progress began:—
That the Dog returns to his Vomit and the Sow returns to her Mire,
And the burnt Fool's bandaged finger goes wabbling back to the Fire;
And that after this is accomplished, and the brave new world begins
When all men are paid for existing and no man must pay for his sins,
As surely as Water will wet us, as surely as Fire will burn,
The Gods of the Copybook Headings with terror and slaughter return!
There is something simplifying about this, cutting through the noise of incremental changes in policy. We don't need to second guess any more - Trump is allied with Putin, and both of them have their country's political structures built around them.
Germany has just announced a "whatever it takes" rearmament program. We should do the same - and despite the whining from SF this is an opportunity to sort our economy out. As distasteful as building armaments is, we need them, and we need skills, jobs and investment.
Whatever it takes...
The idea that just giving up will somehow provide peace and security for Europe is absolutely nuts, IMO.
You might have made a case for that back when the US provided a credible deterrent for us via NATO, but those days are clearly over.
The US might again be a reliable ally sometime in the future (and I hope will), but right now it's genuinely open to question to what extent it's even an ally at all.
You don’t need to do the maths to see that the chances of that not being the case head quickly towards zero.
It’s not good. These guys are quite happy in their impenetrable bubbles.
His welcome volte face has been an impressive example of expediency.
I suppose it’s mildly encouraging that an ambitious, self serving shit sees the lie of the land. When Boris raises his head above the parapet re Trump we’ll know the landscape has truly changed.
Confirmation hearing earlier for Elbridge Colby, who Trump has nominated for top Pentagon post
- Calls Aus a "core ally" but says we should boost defence spending to 3%
- Remains slightly sceptical on AUKUS subs- a "great idea" if it works, but must be balanced against US needs
https://x.com/stephendziedzic/status/1897097842684256750
Said friend has a clothing business: he basically supplies big chains with own label clothing that bears a remarkable physical resemblance to that made by more expensive brands.
Before the election, he saw the way the wind was blowing and moved a lot of production out of China, and into Mexico. He's been absolutely poll-axed by the Mexican tariffs: he's genuinely worried he is going to lose his business because his contracts are in the US and his cost of importation just rose 25%, and his customers don't care.
He's still clinging on to the hope that this will all blow over, but he's in wide eyed shock right now that things have gone the way they've gone.
We all have our biases and the optimistic take from right-wingers on Trump's second term was quite different to the debacle that has ensued since 20th Jan. Whilst sensible chaps on the left might have been pointing this out, I'm not surprised those inferior intellects such as Jenrick needed their heads to be wobbled before they saw the reality.
I would very much like to be proved wrong.
That’s where we are today.
Censorship isn’t going to work, but flooding the zone might.
British people don't like fascists, and Trump and Vance are fascists. We're not talking of fascism as a term of abuse, but real fascism, the type that leaves millions dead.
As to the rest, we, and our allies need to ramp up military spending, and steadily disengage from the USA. But, that should not mean embracing other hostile powers, as a counter to the USA. It would be just as shameful for us to side with China, if they seized Taiwan, as it would be to side with Russia over Ukraine.
The Ukraine stuff has been even worse than predicted but for a brief time some people acted like it would not possibly happen, it was bizarre.
Hooray, the Beeb have started their Glastonbury wankathon!! Looking forward to coverage of all the other festivals when they announce their line-ups.
I didn't agree with his vote, but he's just another human being.
The Tories need to destroy them, correct?
Why should we care about him?
It feels, to me, that the markets have called Trump's bluff. If the dynamic of selling off USD continues the US is heading for a major, major crisis. This is the first time I've ever thought that US global economic hegemony might be sunsetting. I don't think Trump and MAGA isolationists realise just how much it benefits the US economy.
Is every R4 presenter a ‘Glasto veteran’?
Now they’re whining that bad things are happening to them . I dont give a flying fig if they lose their businesses and homes .
Actions have consequences. They voted for him and own it !
Was he relying on the fact that Trump is a liar ?
FWIW, I don't celebrate the misfortune of those who voted for Trump, only to find themselves on the wrong end of his malice.
But I am genuinely curious about how they process it.
If you don't welcome the conversion of political opponents, or ridicule the admission of mistakes (even the most egregious ones), then you do your own favoured policies a huge disservice.
Putin's playbook derives from the Anschluss – take over and absorb regions where the population would rather be in your country than theirs, and votes that way in a referendum. Trump has endorsed that methodology with his plans for Greenland, and arguably Canada.
Here is what President Trump said in his State of the Union address this week:-
And I also have a message tonight for the incredible people of Greenland. We strongly support your right to determine your own future, and if you choose, we welcome you into the United States of America.
We need Greenland for national security and even international security. And we're working with everybody involved to try and get it. But we need it really for international world security. And I think we're going to get it. One way or the other, we're going to get it.
We will keep you safe. We will make you rich. And together we will take Greenland to heights like you have never thought possible before.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-speech-transcript-2025-joint-address-congress/
Well, there's another country who can play that game and that is China with regard to that part of Siberia known as Outer Manchuria, that used to be part of China. Perhaps not with the purest of motives, John Bolton and also the president of Taiwan have recently mused on this.
So if China does move against Russia, which way will America jump?
The country needs the Tory party to get off its knees, reject maga and the theological new right and remember what patriotic British conservatism is all about.
Quoting Ian: 'Anyhow, PB’ers who were here this morning already witnessed a superlative demonstration of where a combination of AI and sub-par human intelligence can take you. It wasn’t pretty.'
And sadly that is where we may end up as AI takes hold and humans lose their ability to challenge what is presented to them.
Probably not much, unless he's in our circle of acquaintance.
But in general, absolutely we should. If you believe democracy is still a viable form of government, then you have to be open to your opponents changing their minds in the face if evidence.
You might think him an idiot, but how does that make him any different from a large number of voters ?
The other point, of course, is that the damage Trump's policies do isn't confined to those who voted for him.
This might sound rather un-Christian and lacking forgiveness but that’s where I’m at .
We saw this with Brexit, where farming and fishing voted for Brexit to remove trade barriers only to have bigger trade barriers imposed. We're seeing this with US business. Inside the bubble the problem is caused by liberals/socialists and the solution is easy and quick. In practice the real world is complex and slow.
Trump has just announced a 1 month moratorium on auto part tariffs. As if that will make any difference. Their problem is that - as we faced with Boris and the ERG in charge - the people setting policy are low-information.
On your final point, broadly I agree, but we need to be careful that we are doing this, not doing stupid things like giving away Chagos as part of our military budget.
Telegraph
Only if you can guarantee that your people aren't passing our intelligence straight to Moscow, Donald.
Hmm. Yeh thought not.
I wonder what Thatcher, Churchill would have done these past few weeks. It would have been really tough for them given their closeness to the US. I imagine they would be in the same place as Starmer.
Most of which is ignored by those who profess belief.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cp3yew446k5o