Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

More bad news out of America – politicalbetting.com

13567

Comments

  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,313
    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    Very good analysis segment of TRIP on JD Vance's contempt for British and French soldiers who served alongside USA forces, and the blowback. I hadn't realised that the total numbers rotating in and out of Afghanistan were 100k+ in toto. His "I didn't mean them" is a bit tricky when 52 countries served in Iraq in the noughties, including 1600 from Ukr. Deep link.

    https://youtu.be/7GQZqPo_Ke4?t=725

    Centrist Dads' supply perspicacious analysis, and context, as ever. JDV's real problem is that he does not look beyond the echo chamber in his own head.

    Useful idiots for Trump continue to reverse ferret, except afaics for Nonny-Nonny-Nigel. And I bet the Leeanderthal Man too, but I haven't checked.

    Feeble centrist dad likes feeble centrist dad content. Startling
    Lol. I go where the analysis leads.

    The Trump-enthusiasts are realising they are naked emperors, and coming to their senses a little.

    Will you be?
    You are very possibly the stupidest person on here, and I find your cluelessly predictable commentary enjoyable for this reason. You're like a guilty pleasure
    You've said that to at least a dozen people.
    Poor memory, or just lots of guilt ?
    No, just a lot of competition for the title "stupidest person on PB"
    I'm Sparticus!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,018
    IanB2 said:

    Nigelb said:

    US has stopped sharing all intelligence with Ukraine.

    So when U.S. Key Hole reconnaissance satellites see Kh-101 cruise missiles targeted at power plants and hospitals being loaded on to Tu-95’s in Russia, they won’t be warning Ukraine in advance. Nice, another absolutely unconscionable decision.
    https://x.com/ELINTNews/status/1897303126698549276

    Trump is effectively using civilian lives as leverage for his minerals deals.

    Trump is going to bully the rest of the world into giving the US favourable deals on this, that and the other, picking us off one at a time.

    The only way to stand up for this is for the non-US world to stand together.
    They'd already get favourable deals a lot of the time without pushing for deals big enough that Trump gets all excited by them.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,018
    nico67 said:

    Nigelb said:

    I guess Russia isn't going to be in a hurry, then.

    The U.S. will continue to suspend weapon supplies and intelligence sharing with Ukraine until a date for peace talks with Russia is set, White House national security adviser Mike Waltz said on Wednesday.
    https://x.com/BarakRavid/status/1897294656314253351

    Giving them more time to take more territory and kill Ukrainians. The US isn’t even bothering to try and look like it gives a fig about Ukraine. Soon they’ll be shipping weapons to Putin .
    It cares about 'peace', and as was noted before the election the quickest way to get that would be to totally abandon Ukraine. It works fine so long as you can pretend the sides are totally equivalent and thus equally culpable for all the deaths. See all the absolute idiots blaming Zelensky for Ukrainians dying - something tried in 2022 and largely abandoned, now making a comeback in 2025.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,249

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    US has stopped sharing all intelligence with Ukraine.

    So when U.S. Key Hole reconnaissance satellites see Kh-101 cruise missiles targeted at power plants and hospitals being loaded on to Tu-95’s in Russia, they won’t be warning Ukraine in advance. Nice, another absolutely unconscionable decision.
    https://x.com/ELINTNews/status/1897303126698549276

    Trump is effectively using civilian lives as leverage for his minerals deals.

    No pretence they'd be getting (probably worthless anyway) security guarantees in exchange for the "minerals deal". Just sign it or we're abandoning you. Blackmail, pure and simple.
    Zelensky has never had any choice but to sign. Even if the other countries involved stumped up heaps of extra cash, we don't have the infrastructure and the kit to take over from the US as the main supplier.

    However, whoever signs up to surrender territory to the Russians after losing so many lifes fighting for it, will not survive politically in Ukraine. Once he signs, it will be the end of Zelensky's Presidency.

    What Trump and Vance's hardballing has done, whether by accident or design, has given Zelensky a shred of dignity to say "I tried - it was the end of the line - they even cut off the Himars etc.". That won't get him re-elected but it does perhaps soften the blow and enhance his reputation.
    You can almost taste the glee as you write those words.

    He touches himself, as he reads of Russian atrocities.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,018
    edited March 5
    MattW said:

    Leon said:

    It's like they WANT a civil war


    "New guidelines released by the Sentencing Council today would make prison sentences less likely for ethnic and religious minorities.

    Two-tier justice isn't just a talking point - it's the reality in modern Britain..

    This policy is, effectively, already in place, with certain offenders receiving lenient sentences for horrific crimes while others receive strict sentences for speech violations...."

    Details in the tweet


    https://x.com/sam_bidwell/status/1897299597610938846

    Jenrick is on this, vehemently and loudly, but where is Badenoch? She is useless


    It really is deeply shocking.

    Authorities must *explain* why they want to put an ethnic minority person in gaol.
    It's not shocking, it's a social media dog whistle.

    It's a guy Sam Bidwell from the Adam Smith Institute quoting a tweet from Jenrick, which includes himself making a point in the Commons.

    Both the tweet and the video clip of Bobby G, including the allegation of "two tier justice" are full of quite a lot of garbage afaics - such as Jenrick featuring himself asking his finger-jabby question with a very questionable allegation about Sentencing Guidelines, and not featuring the verbal answer given by the Minister.

    The research quoted in the consultation on the proposal does not afaics support the claim.

    Sam Bidwell's tweet compares Muslim defendants to a case of a woman posting on facebook and calls the sentences "similar".

    He quotes the Muslim defendants as receiving 32 months each, and says "Julie Sweeney, 53, from Cheshire, received a similar sentence last year for an inflammatory Facebook post. "

    Her crime was not "posting on Facebook"; she published a call for a Mosque to be burnt down with the people inside it, in the midst of a period of street rioting.

    Actually her sentence was 15 months, so she would be out in 7 or 8 months. That's hardly "similar".
    https://www.cheshire.police.uk/news/cheshire/news/articles/2024/8/woman-jailed-for-hate-related-communications/

    Leon is an intelligent man; I don't know why he snuffles up this horse shit.
    Have you looked at the twitter accounts of famous academics, laywers, doctors, and other generally considered intelligent professions? Intelligent people are often absolute fools about things.

    Gives us middling people comfort.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,831
    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    Very good analysis segment of TRIP on JD Vance's contempt for British and French soldiers who served alongside USA forces, and the blowback. I hadn't realised that the total numbers rotating in and out of Afghanistan were 100k+ in toto. His "I didn't mean them" is a bit tricky when 52 countries served in Iraq in the noughties, including 1600 from Ukr. Deep link.

    https://youtu.be/7GQZqPo_Ke4?t=725

    Centrist Dads' supply perspicacious analysis, and context, as ever. JDV's real problem is that he does not look beyond the echo chamber in his own head.

    Useful idiots for Trump continue to reverse ferret, except afaics for Nonny-Nonny-Nigel. And I bet the Leeanderthal Man too, but I haven't checked.

    Feeble centrist dad likes feeble centrist dad content. Startling
    Lol. I go where the analysis leads.

    The Trump-enthusiasts are realising they are naked emperors, and coming to their senses a little.

    Will you be?
    You are very possibly the stupidest person on here, and I find your cluelessly predictable commentary enjoyable for this reason. You're like a guilty pleasure
    You've said that to at least a dozen people.
    Poor memory, or just lots of guilt ?
    No, just a lot of competition for the title "stupidest person on PB"
    You won that title, at the beginning of the week.

    Enough with all this small-dick energy; just try and come to terms with what you were dealt.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,672

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    US has stopped sharing all intelligence with Ukraine.

    So when U.S. Key Hole reconnaissance satellites see Kh-101 cruise missiles targeted at power plants and hospitals being loaded on to Tu-95’s in Russia, they won’t be warning Ukraine in advance. Nice, another absolutely unconscionable decision.
    https://x.com/ELINTNews/status/1897303126698549276

    Trump is effectively using civilian lives as leverage for his minerals deals.

    No pretence they'd be getting (probably worthless anyway) security guarantees in exchange for the "minerals deal". Just sign it or we're abandoning you. Blackmail, pure and simple.
    Zelensky has never had any choice but to sign. Even if the other countries involved stumped up heaps of extra cash, we don't have the infrastructure and the kit to take over from the US as the main supplier.

    However, whoever signs up to surrender territory to the Russians after losing so many lifes fighting for it, will not survive politically in Ukraine. Once he signs, it will be the end of Zelensky's Presidency.

    What Trump and Vance's hardballing has done, whether by accident or design, has given Zelensky a shred of dignity to say "I tried - it was the end of the line - they even cut off the Himars etc.". That won't get him re-elected but it does perhaps soften the blow and enhance his reputation.
    You can almost taste the glee as you write those words.

    Indeed!

    Russia illegally invades a neighboring country and all the pressure to end to conflict (surrender) is on the country that been invaded not on the invader to get the hell out of there.

    The whole thing stinks!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,141
    edited March 5
    https://x.com/trump_repost/status/1897348645588230246

    Justin Trudeau, of Canada, called me to ask what could be done about Tariffs. I told him that many people have died from Fentanyl that came through the Borders of Canada and Mexico, and nothing has convinced me that it has stopped. He said that it's gotten better, but I said, "That's not good enough." The call ended in a "somewhat" friendly manner! He was unable to tell me when the Canadian Election is taking place, which made me curious, like, what's going on here? I then realized he is trying to use this issue to stay in power. Good luck Justin!

    https://x.com/trump_repost/status/1897349263430168706

    For anyone who is interested, I also told Governor Justin Trudeau of Canada that he largely caused the problems we have with them because of his Weak Border Policies, which allowed tremendous amounts of Fentanyl, and Illegal Aliens, to pour into the United States. These Policies are responsible for the death of many people!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,018
    GIN1138 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    US has stopped sharing all intelligence with Ukraine.

    So when U.S. Key Hole reconnaissance satellites see Kh-101 cruise missiles targeted at power plants and hospitals being loaded on to Tu-95’s in Russia, they won’t be warning Ukraine in advance. Nice, another absolutely unconscionable decision.
    https://x.com/ELINTNews/status/1897303126698549276

    Trump is effectively using civilian lives as leverage for his minerals deals.

    No pretence they'd be getting (probably worthless anyway) security guarantees in exchange for the "minerals deal". Just sign it or we're abandoning you. Blackmail, pure and simple.
    Zelensky has never had any choice but to sign. Even if the other countries involved stumped up heaps of extra cash, we don't have the infrastructure and the kit to take over from the US as the main supplier.

    However, whoever signs up to surrender territory to the Russians after losing so many lifes fighting for it, will not survive politically in Ukraine. Once he signs, it will be the end of Zelensky's Presidency.

    What Trump and Vance's hardballing has done, whether by accident or design, has given Zelensky a shred of dignity to say "I tried - it was the end of the line - they even cut off the Himars etc.". That won't get him re-elected but it does perhaps soften the blow and enhance his reputation.
    You can almost taste the glee as you write those words.

    Indeed!

    Russia illegally invades a neighboring country and all the pressure to end to conflict (surrender) is on the country that been invaded not on the invader to get the hell out of there.

    The whole thing stinks!
    And it'd be one thing to present it as a 'well this sucks but its cold calculation' situation. Trump, Vance, and the sycophants actively present Ukraine as being unreasonable or an enemy for perhaps having some concerns still.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,189
    Nigelb said:

    Carnyx said:

    A win for Jenrick:

    https://x.com/shabanamahmood/status/1897338599542006132

    The Sentencing Council is entirely independent.

    Today's updated guidelines do not represent my views or the views of this government.

    I will be writing to the Sentencing Council to register my displeasure and to recommend reversing this change to guidance.


    https://x.com/robertjenrick/status/1897340914806473169

    The Justice Secretary is trying to play dumb.

    I’ve read the minutes of the meeting it was agreed and her “personal representative” was there.

    No objections were minuted.

    This is the Labour Party’s policy under Two-Tier Kier.

    Can you tell the difference between an observer and someone who actually votes?
    It's still a political win if he's been able to force the government to disown it and get it changed.
    Good for him.
    And ?
    And... it's political discussion on a political betting forum? Are we not supposed to discuss domestic politics until we've said 10 Hate Trumps and 10 Our Zelenskys?
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 23,135
    ABC recognising that if America isn't going to have competitive elections anymore in Trump's Brave New World then we don't need election websites anymore?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,968
    GIN1138 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    US has stopped sharing all intelligence with Ukraine.

    So when U.S. Key Hole reconnaissance satellites see Kh-101 cruise missiles targeted at power plants and hospitals being loaded on to Tu-95’s in Russia, they won’t be warning Ukraine in advance. Nice, another absolutely unconscionable decision.
    https://x.com/ELINTNews/status/1897303126698549276

    Trump is effectively using civilian lives as leverage for his minerals deals.

    No pretence they'd be getting (probably worthless anyway) security guarantees in exchange for the "minerals deal". Just sign it or we're abandoning you. Blackmail, pure and simple.
    Zelensky has never had any choice but to sign. Even if the other countries involved stumped up heaps of extra cash, we don't have the infrastructure and the kit to take over from the US as the main supplier.

    However, whoever signs up to surrender territory to the Russians after losing so many lifes fighting for it, will not survive politically in Ukraine. Once he signs, it will be the end of Zelensky's Presidency.

    What Trump and Vance's hardballing has done, whether by accident or design, has given Zelensky a shred of dignity to say "I tried - it was the end of the line - they even cut off the Himars etc.". That won't get him re-elected but it does perhaps soften the blow and enhance his reputation.
    You can almost taste the glee as you write those words.

    Indeed!

    Russia illegally invades a neighboring country and all the pressure to end to conflict (surrender) is on the country that been invaded not on the invader to get the hell out of there.

    The whole thing stinks!
    The “get Zelenskyy out the way” campaign seemed to me ramp up following top level meetings between US and Russian governments.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,779
    Even Reform voters are turning against Trump

    Anyone told Farage ?

    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1897330762891899106?t=QV2Y9QKgbukQnc5R51J6ww&s=19
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,018

    https://x.com/trump_repost/status/1897348645588230246

    Justin Trudeau, of Canada, called me to ask what could be done about Tariffs. I told him that many people have died from Fentanyl that came through the Borders of Canada and Mexico, and nothing has convinced me that it has stopped. He said that it's gotten better, but I said, "That's not good enough." The call ended in a "somewhat" friendly manner! He was unable to tell me when the Canadian Election is taking place, which made me curious, like, what's going on here? I then realized he is trying to use this issue to stay in power. Good luck Justin!

    https://x.com/trump_repost/status/1897349263430168706

    For anyone who is interested, I also told Governor Justin Trudeau of Canada that he largely caused the problems we have with them because of his Weak Border Policies, which allowed tremendous amounts of Fentanyl, and Illegal Aliens, to pour into the United States. These Policies are responsible for the death of many people!

    I wonder if he is displaying standard american confusion at the idea a GE date is not fixed (other than a maximum end period for the parliament), or if the implication skullduggery is going on was done despite knowing why a clear date was not given.

    Ignorance or maliciousness?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,881
    The scandal Jenrick has unearthed is quite spectacular

    Shabana Mahmood seems - to me - to be lying through her teeth

    The Sentencing Council published their new guidelines today, tweeting them out at length, and with all links. No way this was not approved by the government. I do not believe the Home Office "simply didn't notice" the outrageous racist bias (and religious bias) therein

    The document is still there and it's all in black and white, as it were:

    https://www.sentencingcouncil.org.uk/overarching-guides/magistrates-court/item/ imposition-of-community-and-custodial-sentences-overarching-guideline/

    They fully expected this to come into force on April 1, 2025, ie in about three weeks' time

    It is only - as far as I can see - because Bobby Jenrick kicked up a fuss in the Commons tpday that it is now being hastily withdrawn because of course "the Labour government will never tolerate two tier justice in the UK (unless they can get away with and it's not TOO blatant"
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,018

    Even Reform voters are turning against Trump

    Anyone told Farage ?

    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1897330762891899106?t=QV2Y9QKgbukQnc5R51J6ww&s=19

    I imagine so, he kept pretty quiet in the last couple of weeks and yesterday I think it was spoke out against Vance more than Badenoch did.

    His true opinion is pretty clear, he likes Trump but probably doesn't like some of the things he has said recently, it will be interesting if it leads to any real effect.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,658
    edited March 5

    High street bank accused of 'massive overreach' after emailing customers about 'high gambling activity'
    https://www.racingpost.com/news/britain/major-concerns-raised-over-high-street-bank-santanders-alerts-to-punters-for-high-gambling-activity-acQmC0N3x5Q3/

    Santander has taken to emailing customers about betting transactions, even profitable ones.

    What next? Lloyds wondering why you've not paid for an Uber to church each Sunday? NatWest warning you about spending too much on Greggs and Fuse Energy? Coutts debanking you for being Nigel Farage?

    This is part of being a litigation society. A case in the UK Supreme Court recently involved intelligent people who had persisting in insisting that their bank make a payment to a scammer, and then sued the bank.

    It is absolutely imaginable that somone will sue a bank for allowing it to make payments to a bookmaker in particular circumstances. They will probably lose, as did the customer in the SC case, (though they won in the Court of Appeal) but it still drags the bank into endless litigation.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,148
    kle4 said:

    https://x.com/trump_repost/status/1897348645588230246

    Justin Trudeau, of Canada, called me to ask what could be done about Tariffs. I told him that many people have died from Fentanyl that came through the Borders of Canada and Mexico, and nothing has convinced me that it has stopped. He said that it's gotten better, but I said, "That's not good enough." The call ended in a "somewhat" friendly manner! He was unable to tell me when the Canadian Election is taking place, which made me curious, like, what's going on here? I then realized he is trying to use this issue to stay in power. Good luck Justin!

    https://x.com/trump_repost/status/1897349263430168706

    For anyone who is interested, I also told Governor Justin Trudeau of Canada that he largely caused the problems we have with them because of his Weak Border Policies, which allowed tremendous amounts of Fentanyl, and Illegal Aliens, to pour into the United States. These Policies are responsible for the death of many people!

    I wonder if he is displaying standard american confusion at the idea a GE date is not fixed (other than a maximum end period for the parliament), or if the implication skullduggery is going on was done despite knowing why a clear date was not given.

    Ignorance or maliciousness?
    With Trump - both.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,881
    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    A win for Jenrick:

    https://x.com/shabanamahmood/status/1897338599542006132

    The Sentencing Council is entirely independent.

    Today's updated guidelines do not represent my views or the views of this government.

    I will be writing to the Sentencing Council to register my displeasure and to recommend reversing this change to guidance.


    https://x.com/robertjenrick/status/1897340914806473169

    The Justice Secretary is trying to play dumb.

    I’ve read the minutes of the meeting it was agreed and her “personal representative” was there.

    No objections were minuted.

    This is the Labour Party’s policy under Two-Tier Kier.

    Wow, well done Bobby J. Sharp, clever politics and a clear win

    Sigh. The Tories really did choose the wrong one of the two
    The issue with such things is that if X was not good enough to beat Y in a contest, would they actually have been that good if they had won? Applies in many such instances, see the years long love affair with David Miliband.
    Jenrick has been smarter, sharper and punchier in taking on Labour, than Kemi. I suspect he would regularly duff up Starmer in PMQs

    Of course this might be hopecasting, but today is an example of how he can set the agenda and trouble Labour in a way Kemi apparently finds impossible (and I like her, and I wanted her to be given the chance, but I fear she has fluffed it, and she's simply not up to it)

    Jenrick has a nasty ruthless streak. Probably a good thing in a LOTO
  • glwglw Posts: 10,254
    I wonder how long it will be until a major world leader states plainly that “America is now our enemy”. It surely can’t be long.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,904
    glw said:

    I wonder how long it will be until a major world leader states plainly that “America is now our enemy”. It surely can’t be long.

    I doubt it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,234
    I suppose Nate Silver now has his own site separate from 538
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,018
    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    A win for Jenrick:

    https://x.com/shabanamahmood/status/1897338599542006132

    The Sentencing Council is entirely independent.

    Today's updated guidelines do not represent my views or the views of this government.

    I will be writing to the Sentencing Council to register my displeasure and to recommend reversing this change to guidance.


    https://x.com/robertjenrick/status/1897340914806473169

    The Justice Secretary is trying to play dumb.

    I’ve read the minutes of the meeting it was agreed and her “personal representative” was there.

    No objections were minuted.

    This is the Labour Party’s policy under Two-Tier Kier.

    Wow, well done Bobby J. Sharp, clever politics and a clear win

    Sigh. The Tories really did choose the wrong one of the two
    The issue with such things is that if X was not good enough to beat Y in a contest, would they actually have been that good if they had won? Applies in many such instances, see the years long love affair with David Miliband.
    Jenrick has been smarter, sharper and punchier in taking on Labour, than Kemi. I suspect he would regularly duff up Starmer in PMQs

    Of course this might be hopecasting, but today is an example of how he can set the agenda and trouble Labour in a way Kemi apparently finds impossible (and I like her, and I wanted her to be given the chance, but I fear she has fluffed it, and she's simply not up to it)

    Jenrick has a nasty ruthless streak. Probably a good thing in a LOTO
    I think my view at the time was Badenoch could be a bigger risk, for positive and negative. Jenrick is a bit of a slick, if possibly slimy, chameleon, which does indicate a certain level of political skills.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,664

    ABC recognising that if America isn't going to have competitive elections anymore in Trump's Brave New World then we don't need election websites anymore?

    And the website is mainly about polling. Once Trump 2.0 start aggressive legal attacks on polling companies that show him as unpopular there'll be a dearth of data anyway.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,641
    Leon said:

    The scandal Jenrick has unearthed is quite spectacular

    Shabana Mahmood seems - to me - to be lying through her teeth

    The Sentencing Council published their new guidelines today, tweeting them out at length, and with all links. No way this was not approved by the government. I do not believe the Home Office "simply didn't notice" the outrageous racist bias (and religious bias) therein

    The document is still there and it's all in black and white, as it were:

    https://www.sentencingcouncil.org.uk/overarching-guides/magistrates-court/item/ imposition-of-community-and-custodial-sentences-overarching-guideline/

    They fully expected this to come into force on April 1, 2025, ie in about three weeks' time

    It is only - as far as I can see - because Bobby Jenrick kicked up a fuss in the Commons tpday that it is now being hastily withdrawn because of course "the Labour government will never tolerate two tier justice in the UK (unless they can get away with and it's not TOO blatant"

    As previously posted, the Justice Secretary ruled it out immediately when Jenrick asked the question, so at the very least she is fast on her feet.

    Jenrick of course knows all this because he was there, but is clearly after Kemi's job. As it happens, Kemi had her best PMQs in weeks (see last thread).

    Here for the third time is the Hansard link:-
    Robert Jenrick: Why is the Justice Secretary enshrining this double standard—this two-tier approach to sentencing? It is an inversion of the rule of law. Conservative Members believe in equality under the law; why does she not?

    Shabana Mahmood: Finally, as somebody from an ethnic minority background, I do not stand for any differential treatment before the law for anyone. There will never be a two-tier sentencing approach under my watch or under this Labour Government.
    https://hansard.parliament.uk/Commons/2025-03-05/debates/04627A5E-E10E-4D14-98EF-9164949B89F4/CourtsAndTribunalsSittingDays
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,313
    HYUFD said:

    I suppose Nate Silver now has his own site separate from 538

    Others could benefit from such a model.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,989
    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    A win for Jenrick:

    https://x.com/shabanamahmood/status/1897338599542006132

    The Sentencing Council is entirely independent.

    Today's updated guidelines do not represent my views or the views of this government.

    I will be writing to the Sentencing Council to register my displeasure and to recommend reversing this change to guidance.


    https://x.com/robertjenrick/status/1897340914806473169

    The Justice Secretary is trying to play dumb.

    I’ve read the minutes of the meeting it was agreed and her “personal representative” was there.

    No objections were minuted.

    This is the Labour Party’s policy under Two-Tier Kier.

    Wow, well done Bobby J. Sharp, clever politics and a clear win

    Sigh. The Tories really did choose the wrong one of the two
    The issue with such things is that if X was not good enough to beat Y in a contest, would they actually have been that good if they had won? Applies in many such instances, see the years long love affair with David Miliband.
    Jenrick has been smarter, sharper and punchier in taking on Labour, than Kemi. I suspect he would regularly duff up Starmer in PMQs

    Of course this might be hopecasting, but today is an example of how he can set the agenda and trouble Labour in a way Kemi apparently finds impossible (and I like her, and I wanted her to be given the chance, but I fear she has fluffed it, and she's simply not up to it)

    Jenrick has a nasty ruthless streak. Probably a good thing in a LOTO
    And in a President of the United States?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,779
    glw said:

    I wonder how long it will be until a major world leader states plainly that “America is now our enemy”. It surely can’t be long.

    President Xi ?
  • eekeek Posts: 29,397

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    US has stopped sharing all intelligence with Ukraine.

    So when U.S. Key Hole reconnaissance satellites see Kh-101 cruise missiles targeted at power plants and hospitals being loaded on to Tu-95’s in Russia, they won’t be warning Ukraine in advance. Nice, another absolutely unconscionable decision.
    https://x.com/ELINTNews/status/1897303126698549276

    Trump is effectively using civilian lives as leverage for his minerals deals.

    No pretence they'd be getting (probably worthless anyway) security guarantees in exchange for the "minerals deal". Just sign it or we're abandoning you. Blackmail, pure and simple.
    Zelensky has never had any choice but to sign. Even if the other countries involved stumped up heaps of extra cash, we don't have the infrastructure and the kit to take over from the US as the main supplier.

    However, whoever signs up to surrender territory to the Russians after losing so many lifes fighting for it, will not survive politically in Ukraine. Once he signs, it will be the end of Zelensky's Presidency.

    What Trump and Vance's hardballing has done, whether by accident or design, has given Zelensky a shred of dignity to say "I tried - it was the end of the line - they even cut off the Himars etc.". That won't get him re-elected but it does perhaps soften the blow and enhance his reputation.
    You can almost taste the glee as you write those words.

    Almost?
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,740
    edited March 5
    kle4 said:

    https://x.com/trump_repost/status/1897348645588230246

    Justin Trudeau, of Canada, called me to ask what could be done about Tariffs. I told him that many people have died from Fentanyl that came through the Borders of Canada and Mexico, and nothing has convinced me that it has stopped. He said that it's gotten better, but I said, "That's not good enough." The call ended in a "somewhat" friendly manner! He was unable to tell me when the Canadian Election is taking place, which made me curious, like, what's going on here? I then realized he is trying to use this issue to stay in power. Good luck Justin!

    https://x.com/trump_repost/status/1897349263430168706

    For anyone who is interested, I also told Governor Justin Trudeau of Canada that he largely caused the problems we have with them because of his Weak Border Policies, which allowed tremendous amounts of Fentanyl, and Illegal Aliens, to pour into the United States. These Policies are responsible for the death of many people!

    I wonder if he is displaying standard american confusion at the idea a GE date is not fixed (other than a maximum end period for the parliament), or if the implication skullduggery is going on was done despite knowing why a clear date was not given.

    Ignorance or maliciousness?
    I'm curious as to how long this is going to go on. When will the penny drop that he gives zero fucks and he's toying with everyone?

    Ignore him. No calls, no visits, no mentions - and no TV ratings. Put together a seperate set of deals and guarantees.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,835

    https://x.com/trump_repost/status/1897348645588230246

    Justin Trudeau, of Canada, called me to ask what could be done about Tariffs. I told him that many people have died from Fentanyl that came through the Borders of Canada and Mexico, and nothing has convinced me that it has stopped. He said that it's gotten better, but I said, "That's not good enough." The call ended in a "somewhat" friendly manner! He was unable to tell me when the Canadian Election is taking place, which made me curious, like, what's going on here? I then realized he is trying to use this issue to stay in power. Good luck Justin!

    https://x.com/trump_repost/status/1897349263430168706

    For anyone who is interested, I also told Governor Justin Trudeau of Canada that he largely caused the problems we have with them because of his Weak Border Policies, which allowed tremendous amounts of Fentanyl, and Illegal Aliens, to pour into the United States. These Policies are responsible for the death of many people!

    I have sympathy with the American concerns about people crossing the border illegally from Canada: I believe it was something like 24,000 people last year. And Canada has responded to US concerns by making it much less easy for people from poor countries to get tourist visas to the US, as well as beefing up border security. The numbers the NYTimes quoted were that about 600 people crossed in January, down from 900 a year ago.

    But the fentanyl thing is utter bullshit: there is no meaningful amount of fentanyl coming into the US from Canada. If anything, it's the other way around: fentanyl from South America comes up through Mexico and the US and ends up in Canada. There is literally nothing that Justin Trudeau (or any Canadian leader) can do to prevent the flow of fentanyl to the US, because it's not coming from Canada.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,904
    Leon said:

    The scandal Jenrick has unearthed is quite spectacular

    Shabana Mahmood seems - to me - to be lying through her teeth

    The Sentencing Council published their new guidelines today, tweeting them out at length, and with all links. No way this was not approved by the government. I do not believe the Home Office "simply didn't notice" the outrageous racist bias (and religious bias) therein

    The document is still there and it's all in black and white, as it were:

    https://www.sentencingcouncil.org.uk/overarching-guides/magistrates-court/item/ imposition-of-community-and-custodial-sentences-overarching-guideline/

    They fully expected this to come into force on April 1, 2025, ie in about three weeks' time

    It is only - as far as I can see - because Bobby Jenrick kicked up a fuss in the Commons tpday that it is now being hastily withdrawn because of course "the Labour government will never tolerate two tier justice in the UK (unless they can get away with and it's not TOO blatant"

    Why aren't sentencing guidelines deciding by elected politicians? They certainly should be.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,018

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    A win for Jenrick:

    https://x.com/shabanamahmood/status/1897338599542006132

    The Sentencing Council is entirely independent.

    Today's updated guidelines do not represent my views or the views of this government.

    I will be writing to the Sentencing Council to register my displeasure and to recommend reversing this change to guidance.


    https://x.com/robertjenrick/status/1897340914806473169

    The Justice Secretary is trying to play dumb.

    I’ve read the minutes of the meeting it was agreed and her “personal representative” was there.

    No objections were minuted.

    This is the Labour Party’s policy under Two-Tier Kier.

    Wow, well done Bobby J. Sharp, clever politics and a clear win

    Sigh. The Tories really did choose the wrong one of the two
    The issue with such things is that if X was not good enough to beat Y in a contest, would they actually have been that good if they had won? Applies in many such instances, see the years long love affair with David Miliband.
    Jenrick has been smarter, sharper and punchier in taking on Labour, than Kemi. I suspect he would regularly duff up Starmer in PMQs

    Of course this might be hopecasting, but today is an example of how he can set the agenda and trouble Labour in a way Kemi apparently finds impossible (and I like her, and I wanted her to be given the chance, but I fear she has fluffed it, and she's simply not up to it)

    Jenrick has a nasty ruthless streak. Probably a good thing in a LOTO
    And in a President of the United States?
    Might be a bit like being a medieval king. You need to be a little bit of a bastard to get things done, but going full bastard is too much.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,189
    ...
    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    A win for Jenrick:

    https://x.com/shabanamahmood/status/1897338599542006132

    The Sentencing Council is entirely independent.

    Today's updated guidelines do not represent my views or the views of this government.

    I will be writing to the Sentencing Council to register my displeasure and to recommend reversing this change to guidance.


    https://x.com/robertjenrick/status/1897340914806473169

    The Justice Secretary is trying to play dumb.

    I’ve read the minutes of the meeting it was agreed and her “personal representative” was there.

    No objections were minuted.

    This is the Labour Party’s policy under Two-Tier Kier.

    Wow, well done Bobby J. Sharp, clever politics and a clear win

    Sigh. The Tories really did choose the wrong one of the two
    The issue with such things is that if X was not good enough to beat Y in a contest, would they actually have been that good if they had won? Applies in many such instances, see the years long love affair with David Miliband.
    Jenrick has been smarter, sharper and punchier in taking on Labour, than Kemi. I suspect he would regularly duff up Starmer in PMQs

    Of course this might be hopecasting, but today is an example of how he can set the agenda and trouble Labour in a way Kemi apparently finds impossible (and I like her, and I wanted her to be given the chance, but I fear she has fluffed it, and she's simply not up to it)

    Jenrick has a nasty ruthless streak. Probably a good thing in a LOTO
    He also puts the fear of God into the CCHQ hierarchy, who apparently want to install CLEVERLY to replace Kemi ffs. The idiot who cheated his own way out of the leadership race.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,835
    Eabhal said:

    kle4 said:

    https://x.com/trump_repost/status/1897348645588230246

    Justin Trudeau, of Canada, called me to ask what could be done about Tariffs. I told him that many people have died from Fentanyl that came through the Borders of Canada and Mexico, and nothing has convinced me that it has stopped. He said that it's gotten better, but I said, "That's not good enough." The call ended in a "somewhat" friendly manner! He was unable to tell me when the Canadian Election is taking place, which made me curious, like, what's going on here? I then realized he is trying to use this issue to stay in power. Good luck Justin!

    https://x.com/trump_repost/status/1897349263430168706

    For anyone who is interested, I also told Governor Justin Trudeau of Canada that he largely caused the problems we have with them because of his Weak Border Policies, which allowed tremendous amounts of Fentanyl, and Illegal Aliens, to pour into the United States. These Policies are responsible for the death of many people!

    I wonder if he is displaying standard american confusion at the idea a GE date is not fixed (other than a maximum end period for the parliament), or if the implication skullduggery is going on was done despite knowing why a clear date was not given.

    Ignorance or maliciousness?
    I'm curious as to how long this is going to go on. When will the penny drop that he gives zero fucks and he's toying with everyone?

    Ignore him. No calls, no visits, no mentions - and no TV ratings. Put together a seperate set of deals and guarantees.
    This is very much my view: I don't think there's any benefit from engaging with the US adminstration beyond the absolute minimum.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,018
    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    The scandal Jenrick has unearthed is quite spectacular

    Shabana Mahmood seems - to me - to be lying through her teeth

    The Sentencing Council published their new guidelines today, tweeting them out at length, and with all links. No way this was not approved by the government. I do not believe the Home Office "simply didn't notice" the outrageous racist bias (and religious bias) therein

    The document is still there and it's all in black and white, as it were:

    https://www.sentencingcouncil.org.uk/overarching-guides/magistrates-court/item/ imposition-of-community-and-custodial-sentences-overarching-guideline/

    They fully expected this to come into force on April 1, 2025, ie in about three weeks' time

    It is only - as far as I can see - because Bobby Jenrick kicked up a fuss in the Commons tpday that it is now being hastily withdrawn because of course "the Labour government will never tolerate two tier justice in the UK (unless they can get away with and it's not TOO blatant"

    Why aren't sentencing guidelines deciding by elected politicians? They certainly should be.
    I'm unfamiliar with the system, so is it the case they just set them, or they technically advise and politicians have just set it up so they are automatically approved?

    As it seems to have been a trend in recent decades that we don't trust politicians to decide things, which I understand, but I'm not sure it is always an improvement to just effectively divorce them from the process.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,881
    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    Very good analysis segment of TRIP on JD Vance's contempt for British and French soldiers who served alongside USA forces, and the blowback. I hadn't realised that the total numbers rotating in and out of Afghanistan were 100k+ in toto. His "I didn't mean them" is a bit tricky when 52 countries served in Iraq in the noughties, including 1600 from Ukr. Deep link.

    https://youtu.be/7GQZqPo_Ke4?t=725

    Centrist Dads' supply perspicacious analysis, and context, as ever. JDV's real problem is that he does not look beyond the echo chamber in his own head.

    Useful idiots for Trump continue to reverse ferret, except afaics for Nonny-Nonny-Nigel. And I bet the Leeanderthal Man too, but I haven't checked.

    Feeble centrist dad likes feeble centrist dad content. Startling
    Lol. I go where the analysis leads.

    The Trump-enthusiasts are realising they are naked emperors, and coming to their senses a little.

    Will you be?
    You are very possibly the stupidest person on here, and I find your cluelessly predictable commentary enjoyable for this reason. You're like a guilty pleasure
    You've said that to at least a dozen people.
    Poor memory, or just lots of guilt ?
    No, just a lot of competition for the title "stupidest person on PB"
    You won that title, at the beginning of the week.

    Enough with all this small-dick energy; just try and come to terms with what you were dealt.
    No, you and @kamski and the rest misunderatood the "Charlemage effect". But I am kindly letting it go because I am essentially a nice person and I know you get weirdly querulous and angry when confronted with your personal intellectual limitations. I imagine this peevishness is why your only friend is a dog, but I have no desire to make that loneliness worse, so go forth with my blessing, this sacred Ash Wednesday

    We should all be kinder to each other, like me
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,779
    rcs1000 said:

    Eabhal said:

    kle4 said:

    https://x.com/trump_repost/status/1897348645588230246

    Justin Trudeau, of Canada, called me to ask what could be done about Tariffs. I told him that many people have died from Fentanyl that came through the Borders of Canada and Mexico, and nothing has convinced me that it has stopped. He said that it's gotten better, but I said, "That's not good enough." The call ended in a "somewhat" friendly manner! He was unable to tell me when the Canadian Election is taking place, which made me curious, like, what's going on here? I then realized he is trying to use this issue to stay in power. Good luck Justin!

    https://x.com/trump_repost/status/1897349263430168706

    For anyone who is interested, I also told Governor Justin Trudeau of Canada that he largely caused the problems we have with them because of his Weak Border Policies, which allowed tremendous amounts of Fentanyl, and Illegal Aliens, to pour into the United States. These Policies are responsible for the death of many people!

    I wonder if he is displaying standard american confusion at the idea a GE date is not fixed (other than a maximum end period for the parliament), or if the implication skullduggery is going on was done despite knowing why a clear date was not given.

    Ignorance or maliciousness?
    I'm curious as to how long this is going to go on. When will the penny drop that he gives zero fucks and he's toying with everyone?

    Ignore him. No calls, no visits, no mentions - and no TV ratings. Put together a seperate set of deals and guarantees.
    This is very much my view: I don't think there's any benefit from engaging with the US adminstration beyond the absolute minimum.
    The problem is will the media agree when they are the ones utterly obsessed by Trump
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,018
    edited March 5
    rcs1000 said:

    Eabhal said:

    kle4 said:

    https://x.com/trump_repost/status/1897348645588230246

    Justin Trudeau, of Canada, called me to ask what could be done about Tariffs. I told him that many people have died from Fentanyl that came through the Borders of Canada and Mexico, and nothing has convinced me that it has stopped. He said that it's gotten better, but I said, "That's not good enough." The call ended in a "somewhat" friendly manner! He was unable to tell me when the Canadian Election is taking place, which made me curious, like, what's going on here? I then realized he is trying to use this issue to stay in power. Good luck Justin!

    https://x.com/trump_repost/status/1897349263430168706

    For anyone who is interested, I also told Governor Justin Trudeau of Canada that he largely caused the problems we have with them because of his Weak Border Policies, which allowed tremendous amounts of Fentanyl, and Illegal Aliens, to pour into the United States. These Policies are responsible for the death of many people!

    I wonder if he is displaying standard american confusion at the idea a GE date is not fixed (other than a maximum end period for the parliament), or if the implication skullduggery is going on was done despite knowing why a clear date was not given.

    Ignorance or maliciousness?
    I'm curious as to how long this is going to go on. When will the penny drop that he gives zero fucks and he's toying with everyone?

    Ignore him. No calls, no visits, no mentions - and no TV ratings. Put together a seperate set of deals and guarantees.
    This is very much my view: I don't think there's any benefit from engaging with the US adminstration beyond the absolute minimum.
    Nations are too afraid of immediate punitive reaction, I don't think many will risk just ignoring him as much as possible.

    Trump knows being a loud bully usually works, it's a life lesson we are all typically aware of (though we sometimes pretend otherwise otherwise) it just doesn't usually apply to national level where diplomatic language soothes things over.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,234

    ...

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    A win for Jenrick:

    https://x.com/shabanamahmood/status/1897338599542006132

    The Sentencing Council is entirely independent.

    Today's updated guidelines do not represent my views or the views of this government.

    I will be writing to the Sentencing Council to register my displeasure and to recommend reversing this change to guidance.


    https://x.com/robertjenrick/status/1897340914806473169

    The Justice Secretary is trying to play dumb.

    I’ve read the minutes of the meeting it was agreed and her “personal representative” was there.

    No objections were minuted.

    This is the Labour Party’s policy under Two-Tier Kier.

    Wow, well done Bobby J. Sharp, clever politics and a clear win

    Sigh. The Tories really did choose the wrong one of the two
    The issue with such things is that if X was not good enough to beat Y in a contest, would they actually have been that good if they had won? Applies in many such instances, see the years long love affair with David Miliband.
    Jenrick has been smarter, sharper and punchier in taking on Labour, than Kemi. I suspect he would regularly duff up Starmer in PMQs

    Of course this might be hopecasting, but today is an example of how he can set the agenda and trouble Labour in a way Kemi apparently finds impossible (and I like her, and I wanted her to be given the chance, but I fear she has fluffed it, and she's simply not up to it)

    Jenrick has a nasty ruthless streak. Probably a good thing in a LOTO
    He also puts the fear of God into the CCHQ hierarchy, who apparently want to install CLEVERLY to replace Kemi ffs. The idiot who cheated his own way out of the leadership race.
    Cleverly wants to run for London Mayor, if Kemi went it would likely be her Shadow Chancellor Stride who replaced her before the next GE
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,556
    In case anyone is wondering, Millwall Football Club et environs is grim as fuck.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,313
    HYUFD said:

    ...

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    A win for Jenrick:

    https://x.com/shabanamahmood/status/1897338599542006132

    The Sentencing Council is entirely independent.

    Today's updated guidelines do not represent my views or the views of this government.

    I will be writing to the Sentencing Council to register my displeasure and to recommend reversing this change to guidance.


    https://x.com/robertjenrick/status/1897340914806473169

    The Justice Secretary is trying to play dumb.

    I’ve read the minutes of the meeting it was agreed and her “personal representative” was there.

    No objections were minuted.

    This is the Labour Party’s policy under Two-Tier Kier.

    Wow, well done Bobby J. Sharp, clever politics and a clear win

    Sigh. The Tories really did choose the wrong one of the two
    The issue with such things is that if X was not good enough to beat Y in a contest, would they actually have been that good if they had won? Applies in many such instances, see the years long love affair with David Miliband.
    Jenrick has been smarter, sharper and punchier in taking on Labour, than Kemi. I suspect he would regularly duff up Starmer in PMQs

    Of course this might be hopecasting, but today is an example of how he can set the agenda and trouble Labour in a way Kemi apparently finds impossible (and I like her, and I wanted her to be given the chance, but I fear she has fluffed it, and she's simply not up to it)

    Jenrick has a nasty ruthless streak. Probably a good thing in a LOTO
    He also puts the fear of God into the CCHQ hierarchy, who apparently want to install CLEVERLY to replace Kemi ffs. The idiot who cheated his own way out of the leadership race.
    Cleverly wants to run for London Mayor, if Kemi went it would likely be her Shadow Chancellor Stride who replaced her before the next GE
    It's odd that we can't find a decent politician in the whole of the UK.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,881

    Leon said:

    The scandal Jenrick has unearthed is quite spectacular

    Shabana Mahmood seems - to me - to be lying through her teeth

    The Sentencing Council published their new guidelines today, tweeting them out at length, and with all links. No way this was not approved by the government. I do not believe the Home Office "simply didn't notice" the outrageous racist bias (and religious bias) therein

    The document is still there and it's all in black and white, as it were:

    https://www.sentencingcouncil.org.uk/overarching-guides/magistrates-court/item/ imposition-of-community-and-custodial-sentences-overarching-guideline/

    They fully expected this to come into force on April 1, 2025, ie in about three weeks' time

    It is only - as far as I can see - because Bobby Jenrick kicked up a fuss in the Commons tpday that it is now being hastily withdrawn because of course "the Labour government will never tolerate two tier justice in the UK (unless they can get away with and it's not TOO blatant"

    As previously posted, the Justice Secretary ruled it out immediately when Jenrick asked the question, so at the very least she is fast on her feet.

    Jenrick of course knows all this because he was there, but is clearly after Kemi's job. As it happens, Kemi had her best PMQs in weeks (see last thread).

    Here for the third time is the Hansard link:-
    Robert Jenrick: Why is the Justice Secretary enshrining this double standard—this two-tier approach to sentencing? It is an inversion of the rule of law. Conservative Members believe in equality under the law; why does she not?

    Shabana Mahmood: Finally, as somebody from an ethnic minority background, I do not stand for any differential treatment before the law for anyone. There will never be a two-tier sentencing approach under my watch or under this Labour Government.
    https://hansard.parliament.uk/Commons/2025-03-05/debates/04627A5E-E10E-4D14-98EF-9164949B89F4/CourtsAndTribunalsSittingDays
    So, why was the Sentencing Council - surely with Home Office and Justice Secretary approval (how could they not have that??) - confidently tweeting out their new guidelines today, which have taken months or years to prepare, so they coud be enacted at the end of this month? As that was, it seems, the plan?

    Did Shabana Mahmood simply not notice this outrageous "two tier racism" until Jenrick pointed it out? If she didn't notice that is grave negligence - this is her job - or perhaps she is lying, and got caught
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,168
    TOPPING said:

    In case anyone is wondering, Millwall Football Club et environs is grim as fuck.

    I didn't have you down as a Millwall fan :lol:
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,556
    On the topic, at least we know what subdued nations felt like when Great Britain was at its imperial peak.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,686
    Sean_F said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    US has stopped sharing all intelligence with Ukraine.

    So when U.S. Key Hole reconnaissance satellites see Kh-101 cruise missiles targeted at power plants and hospitals being loaded on to Tu-95’s in Russia, they won’t be warning Ukraine in advance. Nice, another absolutely unconscionable decision.
    https://x.com/ELINTNews/status/1897303126698549276

    Trump is effectively using civilian lives as leverage for his minerals deals.

    No pretence they'd be getting (probably worthless anyway) security guarantees in exchange for the "minerals deal". Just sign it or we're abandoning you. Blackmail, pure and simple.
    Zelensky has never had any choice but to sign. Even if the other countries involved stumped up heaps of extra cash, we don't have the infrastructure and the kit to take over from the US as the main supplier.

    However, whoever signs up to surrender territory to the Russians after losing so many lifes fighting for it, will not survive politically in Ukraine. Once he signs, it will be the end of Zelensky's Presidency.

    What Trump and Vance's hardballing has done, whether by accident or design, has given Zelensky a shred of dignity to say "I tried - it was the end of the line - they even cut off the Himars etc.". That won't get him re-elected but it does perhaps soften the blow and enhance his reputation.
    You can almost taste the glee as you write those words.

    He touches himself, as he reads of Russian atrocities.
    Anyone that has even a passing attempt at being gleeful about the misery that Putin has inflicted on Ukrainians is a first class c*nt and deserves to have something very very miserable to happen to them, if there is such thing as Karma.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,632
    Off thread - sunset from Strangeways: currently where New Manchester meets old Manchester.


    Shame about that Travelodge.

  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 23,135
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    The scandal Jenrick has unearthed is quite spectacular

    Shabana Mahmood seems - to me - to be lying through her teeth

    The Sentencing Council published their new guidelines today, tweeting them out at length, and with all links. No way this was not approved by the government. I do not believe the Home Office "simply didn't notice" the outrageous racist bias (and religious bias) therein

    The document is still there and it's all in black and white, as it were:

    https://www.sentencingcouncil.org.uk/overarching-guides/magistrates-court/item/ imposition-of-community-and-custodial-sentences-overarching-guideline/

    They fully expected this to come into force on April 1, 2025, ie in about three weeks' time

    It is only - as far as I can see - because Bobby Jenrick kicked up a fuss in the Commons tpday that it is now being hastily withdrawn because of course "the Labour government will never tolerate two tier justice in the UK (unless they can get away with and it's not TOO blatant"

    As previously posted, the Justice Secretary ruled it out immediately when Jenrick asked the question, so at the very least she is fast on her feet.

    Jenrick of course knows all this because he was there, but is clearly after Kemi's job. As it happens, Kemi had her best PMQs in weeks (see last thread).

    Here for the third time is the Hansard link:-
    Robert Jenrick: Why is the Justice Secretary enshrining this double standard—this two-tier approach to sentencing? It is an inversion of the rule of law. Conservative Members believe in equality under the law; why does she not?

    Shabana Mahmood: Finally, as somebody from an ethnic minority background, I do not stand for any differential treatment before the law for anyone. There will never be a two-tier sentencing approach under my watch or under this Labour Government.
    https://hansard.parliament.uk/Commons/2025-03-05/debates/04627A5E-E10E-4D14-98EF-9164949B89F4/CourtsAndTribunalsSittingDays
    So, why was the Sentencing Council - surely with Home Office and Justice Secretary approval (how could they not have that??) - confidently tweeting out their new guidelines today, which have taken months or years to prepare, so they coud be enacted at the end of this month? As that was, it seems, the plan?

    Did Shabana Mahmood simply not notice this outrageous "two tier racism" until Jenrick pointed it out? If she didn't notice that is grave negligence - this is her job - or perhaps she is lying, and got caught
    If it has taken years to prepare that would indicate it was prepared in part by the last government?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,556

    TOPPING said:

    In case anyone is wondering, Millwall Football Club et environs is grim as fuck.

    I didn't have you down as a Millwall fan :lol:
    I am not a Millwall football fan. Nor a Millwall environs fan.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,189
    edited March 5

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    US has stopped sharing all intelligence with Ukraine.

    So when U.S. Key Hole reconnaissance satellites see Kh-101 cruise missiles targeted at power plants and hospitals being loaded on to Tu-95’s in Russia, they won’t be warning Ukraine in advance. Nice, another absolutely unconscionable decision.
    https://x.com/ELINTNews/status/1897303126698549276

    Trump is effectively using civilian lives as leverage for his minerals deals.

    No pretence they'd be getting (probably worthless anyway) security guarantees in exchange for the "minerals deal". Just sign it or we're abandoning you. Blackmail, pure and simple.
    Zelensky has never had any choice but to sign. Even if the other countries involved stumped up heaps of extra cash, we don't have the infrastructure and the kit to take over from the US as the main supplier.

    However, whoever signs up to surrender territory to the Russians after losing so many lifes fighting for it, will not survive politically in Ukraine. Once he signs, it will be the end of Zelensky's Presidency.

    What Trump and Vance's hardballing has done, whether by accident or design, has given Zelensky a shred of dignity to say "I tried - it was the end of the line - they even cut off the Himars etc.". That won't get him re-elected but it does perhaps soften the blow and enhance his reputation.
    You can almost taste the glee as you write those words.

    There's no glee. I am in the position of wanting the war to end, but on terms that guarantee the future security (and viability and prosperity) of Ukraine. That has been my position for about two years - it hasn't changed.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,881

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    The scandal Jenrick has unearthed is quite spectacular

    Shabana Mahmood seems - to me - to be lying through her teeth

    The Sentencing Council published their new guidelines today, tweeting them out at length, and with all links. No way this was not approved by the government. I do not believe the Home Office "simply didn't notice" the outrageous racist bias (and religious bias) therein

    The document is still there and it's all in black and white, as it were:

    https://www.sentencingcouncil.org.uk/overarching-guides/magistrates-court/item/ imposition-of-community-and-custodial-sentences-overarching-guideline/

    They fully expected this to come into force on April 1, 2025, ie in about three weeks' time

    It is only - as far as I can see - because Bobby Jenrick kicked up a fuss in the Commons tpday that it is now being hastily withdrawn because of course "the Labour government will never tolerate two tier justice in the UK (unless they can get away with and it's not TOO blatant"

    As previously posted, the Justice Secretary ruled it out immediately when Jenrick asked the question, so at the very least she is fast on her feet.

    Jenrick of course knows all this because he was there, but is clearly after Kemi's job. As it happens, Kemi had her best PMQs in weeks (see last thread).

    Here for the third time is the Hansard link:-
    Robert Jenrick: Why is the Justice Secretary enshrining this double standard—this two-tier approach to sentencing? It is an inversion of the rule of law. Conservative Members believe in equality under the law; why does she not?

    Shabana Mahmood: Finally, as somebody from an ethnic minority background, I do not stand for any differential treatment before the law for anyone. There will never be a two-tier sentencing approach under my watch or under this Labour Government.
    https://hansard.parliament.uk/Commons/2025-03-05/debates/04627A5E-E10E-4D14-98EF-9164949B89F4/CourtsAndTribunalsSittingDays
    So, why was the Sentencing Council - surely with Home Office and Justice Secretary approval (how could they not have that??) - confidently tweeting out their new guidelines today, which have taken months or years to prepare, so they coud be enacted at the end of this month? As that was, it seems, the plan?

    Did Shabana Mahmood simply not notice this outrageous "two tier racism" until Jenrick pointed it out? If she didn't notice that is grave negligence - this is her job - or perhaps she is lying, and got caught
    If it has taken years to prepare that would indicate it was prepared in part by the last government?
    Yep, there are some indications this insanity also began under the Tories (like Chagos)

    Jeez, how bad were the Tories from 2010-2024???

    This is why the Tories must be destroyed, or taken over by Reform
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,141
    https://x.com/mylovanov/status/1897350321053295080

    Waltz:

    Everything in the U.S.-Ukraine relationship is on hold - not just intelligence sharing

    Zelensky shouldn’t demand security guarantees before talks

    Zelensky shouldn’t negotiate details before first securing a seat at the table.
  • trukattrukat Posts: 46
    kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Eabhal said:

    kle4 said:

    https://x.com/trump_repost/status/1897348645588230246

    Justin Trudeau, of Canada, called me to ask what could be done about Tariffs. I told him that many people have died from Fentanyl that came through the Borders of Canada and Mexico, and nothing has convinced me that it has stopped. He said that it's gotten better, but I said, "That's not good enough." The call ended in a "somewhat" friendly manner! He was unable to tell me when the Canadian Election is taking place, which made me curious, like, what's going on here? I then realized he is trying to use this issue to stay in power. Good luck Justin!

    https://x.com/trump_repost/status/1897349263430168706

    For anyone who is interested, I also told Governor Justin Trudeau of Canada that he largely caused the problems we have with them because of his Weak Border Policies, which allowed tremendous amounts of Fentanyl, and Illegal Aliens, to pour into the United States. These Policies are responsible for the death of many people!

    I wonder if he is displaying standard american confusion at the idea a GE date is not fixed (other than a maximum end period for the parliament), or if the implication skullduggery is going on was done despite knowing why a clear date was not given.

    Ignorance or maliciousness?
    I'm curious as to how long this is going to go on. When will the penny drop that he gives zero fucks and he's toying with everyone?

    Ignore him. No calls, no visits, no mentions - and no TV ratings. Put together a seperate set of deals and guarantees.
    This is very much my view: I don't think there's any benefit from engaging with the US adminstration beyond the absolute minimum.
    Nations are too afraid of immediate punitive reaction, I don't think many will risk just ignoring him as much as possible.

    Trump knows being a loud bully usually works, it's a life lesson we are all typically aware of (though we sometimes pretend otherwise otherwise) it just doesn't usually apply to national level where diplomatic language soothes things over.
    We are utterly dependent on this guy for our military right now. So we need to smile and tell him how great he is while we de-integrate our military from the US as fast as possible. I hope to God we never put the UK in this situation again.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,018
    TOPPING said:

    On the topic, at least we know what subdued nations felt like when Great Britain was at its imperial peak.

    I'm not liking this boot on the other foot.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,189
    HYUFD said:

    ...

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    A win for Jenrick:

    https://x.com/shabanamahmood/status/1897338599542006132

    The Sentencing Council is entirely independent.

    Today's updated guidelines do not represent my views or the views of this government.

    I will be writing to the Sentencing Council to register my displeasure and to recommend reversing this change to guidance.


    https://x.com/robertjenrick/status/1897340914806473169

    The Justice Secretary is trying to play dumb.

    I’ve read the minutes of the meeting it was agreed and her “personal representative” was there.

    No objections were minuted.

    This is the Labour Party’s policy under Two-Tier Kier.

    Wow, well done Bobby J. Sharp, clever politics and a clear win

    Sigh. The Tories really did choose the wrong one of the two
    The issue with such things is that if X was not good enough to beat Y in a contest, would they actually have been that good if they had won? Applies in many such instances, see the years long love affair with David Miliband.
    Jenrick has been smarter, sharper and punchier in taking on Labour, than Kemi. I suspect he would regularly duff up Starmer in PMQs

    Of course this might be hopecasting, but today is an example of how he can set the agenda and trouble Labour in a way Kemi apparently finds impossible (and I like her, and I wanted her to be given the chance, but I fear she has fluffed it, and she's simply not up to it)

    Jenrick has a nasty ruthless streak. Probably a good thing in a LOTO
    He also puts the fear of God into the CCHQ hierarchy, who apparently want to install CLEVERLY to replace Kemi ffs. The idiot who cheated his own way out of the leadership race.
    Cleverly wants to run for London Mayor, if Kemi went it would likely be her Shadow Chancellor Stride who replaced her before the next GE
    Reasonable candidate for it I guess. Still think Boris would have done better.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,556
    kle4 said:

    TOPPING said:

    On the topic, at least we know what subdued nations felt like when Great Britain was at its imperial peak.

    I'm not liking this boot on the other foot.
    I'm sure someone will tell us what benign rulers we were in our pomp.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,318
    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    Very good analysis segment of TRIP on JD Vance's contempt for British and French soldiers who served alongside USA forces, and the blowback. I hadn't realised that the total numbers rotating in and out of Afghanistan were 100k+ in toto. His "I didn't mean them" is a bit tricky when 52 countries served in Iraq in the noughties, including 1600 from Ukr. Deep link.

    https://youtu.be/7GQZqPo_Ke4?t=725

    Centrist Dads' supply perspicacious analysis, and context, as ever. JDV's real problem is that he does not look beyond the echo chamber in his own head.

    Useful idiots for Trump continue to reverse ferret, except afaics for Nonny-Nonny-Nigel. And I bet the Leeanderthal Man too, but I haven't checked.

    Feeble centrist dad likes feeble centrist dad content. Startling
    Lol. I go where the analysis leads.

    The Trump-enthusiasts are realising they are naked emperors, and coming to their senses a little.

    Will you be?
    You are very possibly the stupidest person on here, and I find your cluelessly predictable commentary enjoyable for this reason. You're like a guilty pleasure
    You've said that to at least a dozen people.
    Poor memory, or just lots of guilt ?
    No, just a lot of competition for the title "stupidest person on PB"
    You won that title, at the beginning of the week.

    Enough with all this small-dick energy; just try and come to terms with what you were dealt.
    No, you and @kamski and the rest misunderatood the "Charlemage effect". But I am kindly letting it go because I am essentially a nice person and I know you get weirdly querulous and angry when confronted with your personal intellectual limitations. I imagine this peevishness is why your only friend is a dog, but I have no desire to make that loneliness worse, so go forth with my blessing, this sacred Ash Wednesday

    We should all be kinder to each other, like me
    I was intrigued by the works referred to in this discussion and went and read them. What was interesting was that the model is based on assuming that the parents are randomly drawn from all available people in a population. Which is a bit unlikely. The author admits this in his work. But what is undeniable is that if you go back enough generations you will find an individual who everyone alive is a direct descendent of. But that person is unlikely to have been either Rollo of Charlemagne. Then going furthe r back you will reach a point where everyone alive is is either an ancestor of that person or has no surviving descendants.
    The issue at hand was about when that would be. After one generation it’s obviously not. By 1000 years ago it’s plausible, but I think on the whole not proven, and certainly the argument that everyone alive now is descended from everyone at 1000 is not proven.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,461
    a
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    US has stopped sharing all intelligence with Ukraine.

    So when U.S. Key Hole reconnaissance satellites see Kh-101 cruise missiles targeted at power plants and hospitals being loaded on to Tu-95’s in Russia, they won’t be warning Ukraine in advance. Nice, another absolutely unconscionable decision.
    https://x.com/ELINTNews/status/1897303126698549276

    Trump is effectively using civilian lives as leverage for his minerals deals.

    Or he's just admitting he has no intelligence.
    It wouldn’t be Keyhole providing that information. You don’t need 10-15cm resolution to see that bombers are being prep’d.

    So you’d use lower resolution, cheaper, more available systems. Fortunately the U.K. and EU have capabilities in that area. Even commercial imagery could do it, these days.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,686

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    US has stopped sharing all intelligence with Ukraine.

    So when U.S. Key Hole reconnaissance satellites see Kh-101 cruise missiles targeted at power plants and hospitals being loaded on to Tu-95’s in Russia, they won’t be warning Ukraine in advance. Nice, another absolutely unconscionable decision.
    https://x.com/ELINTNews/status/1897303126698549276

    Trump is effectively using civilian lives as leverage for his minerals deals.

    No pretence they'd be getting (probably worthless anyway) security guarantees in exchange for the "minerals deal". Just sign it or we're abandoning you. Blackmail, pure and simple.
    Zelensky has never had any choice but to sign. Even if the other countries involved stumped up heaps of extra cash, we don't have the infrastructure and the kit to take over from the US as the main supplier.

    However, whoever signs up to surrender territory to the Russians after losing so many lifes fighting for it, will not survive politically in Ukraine. Once he signs, it will be the end of Zelensky's Presidency.

    What Trump and Vance's hardballing has done, whether by accident or design, has given Zelensky a shred of dignity to say "I tried - it was the end of the line - they even cut off the Himars etc.". That won't get him re-elected but it does perhaps soften the blow and enhance his reputation.
    You can almost taste the glee as you write those words.

    There's no glee. I am in the position of wanting the war to end, but on terms that guarantee the future security (and viability and prosperity) of Ukraine. That has been my position for about two years - it hasn't changed.
    Yea, it is a similar view to that held by Oswald Mosely and Lord Halifax.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,881

    HYUFD said:

    ...

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    A win for Jenrick:

    https://x.com/shabanamahmood/status/1897338599542006132

    The Sentencing Council is entirely independent.

    Today's updated guidelines do not represent my views or the views of this government.

    I will be writing to the Sentencing Council to register my displeasure and to recommend reversing this change to guidance.


    https://x.com/robertjenrick/status/1897340914806473169

    The Justice Secretary is trying to play dumb.

    I’ve read the minutes of the meeting it was agreed and her “personal representative” was there.

    No objections were minuted.

    This is the Labour Party’s policy under Two-Tier Kier.

    Wow, well done Bobby J. Sharp, clever politics and a clear win

    Sigh. The Tories really did choose the wrong one of the two
    The issue with such things is that if X was not good enough to beat Y in a contest, would they actually have been that good if they had won? Applies in many such instances, see the years long love affair with David Miliband.
    Jenrick has been smarter, sharper and punchier in taking on Labour, than Kemi. I suspect he would regularly duff up Starmer in PMQs

    Of course this might be hopecasting, but today is an example of how he can set the agenda and trouble Labour in a way Kemi apparently finds impossible (and I like her, and I wanted her to be given the chance, but I fear she has fluffed it, and she's simply not up to it)

    Jenrick has a nasty ruthless streak. Probably a good thing in a LOTO
    He also puts the fear of God into the CCHQ hierarchy, who apparently want to install CLEVERLY to replace Kemi ffs. The idiot who cheated his own way out of the leadership race.
    Cleverly wants to run for London Mayor, if Kemi went it would likely be her Shadow Chancellor Stride who replaced her before the next GE
    Reasonable candidate for it I guess. Still think Boris would have done better.
    Cleverly would be a great candidate for London mayor. I suspect he'd win, tho that depends on who Labour put up (surely the loathsome Khan won't go for a fourth tilt?). Cleverly would be a bloody disaster as LOTO, another milquetoast Sunakite Cameroony wet, he would take the party nowhere, and fast
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,249
    TOPPING said:

    kle4 said:

    TOPPING said:

    On the topic, at least we know what subdued nations felt like when Great Britain was at its imperial peak.

    I'm not liking this boot on the other foot.
    I'm sure someone will tell us what benign rulers we were in our pomp.
    I’d suggest at least we had more talented statesmen, than the freakshow running the United States, currently.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,641
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    The scandal Jenrick has unearthed is quite spectacular

    Shabana Mahmood seems - to me - to be lying through her teeth

    The Sentencing Council published their new guidelines today, tweeting them out at length, and with all links. No way this was not approved by the government. I do not believe the Home Office "simply didn't notice" the outrageous racist bias (and religious bias) therein

    The document is still there and it's all in black and white, as it were:

    https://www.sentencingcouncil.org.uk/overarching-guides/magistrates-court/item/ imposition-of-community-and-custodial-sentences-overarching-guideline/

    They fully expected this to come into force on April 1, 2025, ie in about three weeks' time

    It is only - as far as I can see - because Bobby Jenrick kicked up a fuss in the Commons tpday that it is now being hastily withdrawn because of course "the Labour government will never tolerate two tier justice in the UK (unless they can get away with and it's not TOO blatant"

    As previously posted, the Justice Secretary ruled it out immediately when Jenrick asked the question, so at the very least she is fast on her feet.

    Jenrick of course knows all this because he was there, but is clearly after Kemi's job. As it happens, Kemi had her best PMQs in weeks (see last thread).

    Here for the third time is the Hansard link:-
    Robert Jenrick: Why is the Justice Secretary enshrining this double standard—this two-tier approach to sentencing? It is an inversion of the rule of law. Conservative Members believe in equality under the law; why does she not?

    Shabana Mahmood: Finally, as somebody from an ethnic minority background, I do not stand for any differential treatment before the law for anyone. There will never be a two-tier sentencing approach under my watch or under this Labour Government.
    https://hansard.parliament.uk/Commons/2025-03-05/debates/04627A5E-E10E-4D14-98EF-9164949B89F4/CourtsAndTribunalsSittingDays
    So, why was the Sentencing Council - surely with Home Office and Justice Secretary approval (how could they not have that??) - confidently tweeting out their new guidelines today, which have taken months or years to prepare, so they coud be enacted at the end of this month? As that was, it seems, the plan?

    Did Shabana Mahmood simply not notice this outrageous "two tier racism" until Jenrick pointed it out? If she didn't notice that is grave negligence - this is her job - or perhaps she is lying, and got caught
    Or Mahmood was in Texas looking at so-called super prisons, as is mentioned in their exchange. The answer is, I don't know. Nor do I know why Jenrick did not notice earlier. And if Jenrick were LotO and raised this at PMQs, Starmer would doubtless observe that the Sentencing Council's review process started under the last Conservative government, because everything did and that is what he does. So I cannot see Jenrick would necessarily be a step up from Kemi in this role.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,686
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    The scandal Jenrick has unearthed is quite spectacular

    Shabana Mahmood seems - to me - to be lying through her teeth

    The Sentencing Council published their new guidelines today, tweeting them out at length, and with all links. No way this was not approved by the government. I do not believe the Home Office "simply didn't notice" the outrageous racist bias (and religious bias) therein

    The document is still there and it's all in black and white, as it were:

    https://www.sentencingcouncil.org.uk/overarching-guides/magistrates-court/item/ imposition-of-community-and-custodial-sentences-overarching-guideline/

    They fully expected this to come into force on April 1, 2025, ie in about three weeks' time

    It is only - as far as I can see - because Bobby Jenrick kicked up a fuss in the Commons tpday that it is now being hastily withdrawn because of course "the Labour government will never tolerate two tier justice in the UK (unless they can get away with and it's not TOO blatant"

    As previously posted, the Justice Secretary ruled it out immediately when Jenrick asked the question, so at the very least she is fast on her feet.

    Jenrick of course knows all this because he was there, but is clearly after Kemi's job. As it happens, Kemi had her best PMQs in weeks (see last thread).

    Here for the third time is the Hansard link:-
    Robert Jenrick: Why is the Justice Secretary enshrining this double standard—this two-tier approach to sentencing? It is an inversion of the rule of law. Conservative Members believe in equality under the law; why does she not?

    Shabana Mahmood: Finally, as somebody from an ethnic minority background, I do not stand for any differential treatment before the law for anyone. There will never be a two-tier sentencing approach under my watch or under this Labour Government.
    https://hansard.parliament.uk/Commons/2025-03-05/debates/04627A5E-E10E-4D14-98EF-9164949B89F4/CourtsAndTribunalsSittingDays
    So, why was the Sentencing Council - surely with Home Office and Justice Secretary approval (how could they not have that??) - confidently tweeting out their new guidelines today, which have taken months or years to prepare, so they coud be enacted at the end of this month? As that was, it seems, the plan?

    Did Shabana Mahmood simply not notice this outrageous "two tier racism" until Jenrick pointed it out? If she didn't notice that is grave negligence - this is her job - or perhaps she is lying, and got caught
    If it has taken years to prepare that would indicate it was prepared in part by the last government?
    Yep, there are some indications this insanity also began under the Tories (like Chagos)

    Jeez, how bad were the Tories from 2010-2024???

    This is why the Tories must be destroyed, or taken over by Reform
    You are OK with the Conservative Party being taken over by a lickspittle Putin apologist? Maybe you are sympathetic to Vlad and his child stealing murderous ways and agree with Farage that it is all NATO's fault? If you do you are an even bigger twat than I thought you were.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,556

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    US has stopped sharing all intelligence with Ukraine.

    So when U.S. Key Hole reconnaissance satellites see Kh-101 cruise missiles targeted at power plants and hospitals being loaded on to Tu-95’s in Russia, they won’t be warning Ukraine in advance. Nice, another absolutely unconscionable decision.
    https://x.com/ELINTNews/status/1897303126698549276

    Trump is effectively using civilian lives as leverage for his minerals deals.

    No pretence they'd be getting (probably worthless anyway) security guarantees in exchange for the "minerals deal". Just sign it or we're abandoning you. Blackmail, pure and simple.
    Zelensky has never had any choice but to sign. Even if the other countries involved stumped up heaps of extra cash, we don't have the infrastructure and the kit to take over from the US as the main supplier.

    However, whoever signs up to surrender territory to the Russians after losing so many lifes fighting for it, will not survive politically in Ukraine. Once he signs, it will be the end of Zelensky's Presidency.

    What Trump and Vance's hardballing has done, whether by accident or design, has given Zelensky a shred of dignity to say "I tried - it was the end of the line - they even cut off the Himars etc.". That won't get him re-elected but it does perhaps soften the blow and enhance his reputation.
    You can almost taste the glee as you write those words.

    There's no glee. I am in the position of wanting the war to end, but on terms that guarantee the future security (and viability and prosperity) of Ukraine. That has been my position for about two years - it hasn't changed.
    Yea, it is a similar view to that held by Oswald Mosely and Lord Halifax.
    Why is a dispassionate assessment of the current situation in Ukraine so difficult for PBers to digest.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,234

    HYUFD said:

    ...

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    A win for Jenrick:

    https://x.com/shabanamahmood/status/1897338599542006132

    The Sentencing Council is entirely independent.

    Today's updated guidelines do not represent my views or the views of this government.

    I will be writing to the Sentencing Council to register my displeasure and to recommend reversing this change to guidance.


    https://x.com/robertjenrick/status/1897340914806473169

    The Justice Secretary is trying to play dumb.

    I’ve read the minutes of the meeting it was agreed and her “personal representative” was there.

    No objections were minuted.

    This is the Labour Party’s policy under Two-Tier Kier.

    Wow, well done Bobby J. Sharp, clever politics and a clear win

    Sigh. The Tories really did choose the wrong one of the two
    The issue with such things is that if X was not good enough to beat Y in a contest, would they actually have been that good if they had won? Applies in many such instances, see the years long love affair with David Miliband.
    Jenrick has been smarter, sharper and punchier in taking on Labour, than Kemi. I suspect he would regularly duff up Starmer in PMQs

    Of course this might be hopecasting, but today is an example of how he can set the agenda and trouble Labour in a way Kemi apparently finds impossible (and I like her, and I wanted her to be given the chance, but I fear she has fluffed it, and she's simply not up to it)

    Jenrick has a nasty ruthless streak. Probably a good thing in a LOTO
    He also puts the fear of God into the CCHQ hierarchy, who apparently want to install CLEVERLY to replace Kemi ffs. The idiot who cheated his own way out of the leadership race.
    Cleverly wants to run for London Mayor, if Kemi went it would likely be her Shadow Chancellor Stride who replaced her before the next GE
    Reasonable candidate for it I guess. Still think Boris would have done better.
    Pre Brexit not now in anti Brexit London
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,141

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    US has stopped sharing all intelligence with Ukraine.

    So when U.S. Key Hole reconnaissance satellites see Kh-101 cruise missiles targeted at power plants and hospitals being loaded on to Tu-95’s in Russia, they won’t be warning Ukraine in advance. Nice, another absolutely unconscionable decision.
    https://x.com/ELINTNews/status/1897303126698549276

    Trump is effectively using civilian lives as leverage for his minerals deals.

    No pretence they'd be getting (probably worthless anyway) security guarantees in exchange for the "minerals deal". Just sign it or we're abandoning you. Blackmail, pure and simple.
    Zelensky has never had any choice but to sign. Even if the other countries involved stumped up heaps of extra cash, we don't have the infrastructure and the kit to take over from the US as the main supplier.

    However, whoever signs up to surrender territory to the Russians after losing so many lifes fighting for it, will not survive politically in Ukraine. Once he signs, it will be the end of Zelensky's Presidency.

    What Trump and Vance's hardballing has done, whether by accident or design, has given Zelensky a shred of dignity to say "I tried - it was the end of the line - they even cut off the Himars etc.". That won't get him re-elected but it does perhaps soften the blow and enhance his reputation.
    You can almost taste the glee as you write those words.

    There's no glee. I am in the position of wanting the war to end, but on terms that guarantee the future security (and viability and prosperity) of Ukraine. That has been my position for about two years - it hasn't changed.
    Yea, it is a similar view to that held by Oswald Mosely and Lord Halifax.
    Mosley was also a fan of a united Europe that was able to stand up to Russia and America.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,556
    trukat said:

    kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Eabhal said:

    kle4 said:

    https://x.com/trump_repost/status/1897348645588230246

    Justin Trudeau, of Canada, called me to ask what could be done about Tariffs. I told him that many people have died from Fentanyl that came through the Borders of Canada and Mexico, and nothing has convinced me that it has stopped. He said that it's gotten better, but I said, "That's not good enough." The call ended in a "somewhat" friendly manner! He was unable to tell me when the Canadian Election is taking place, which made me curious, like, what's going on here? I then realized he is trying to use this issue to stay in power. Good luck Justin!

    https://x.com/trump_repost/status/1897349263430168706

    For anyone who is interested, I also told Governor Justin Trudeau of Canada that he largely caused the problems we have with them because of his Weak Border Policies, which allowed tremendous amounts of Fentanyl, and Illegal Aliens, to pour into the United States. These Policies are responsible for the death of many people!

    I wonder if he is displaying standard american confusion at the idea a GE date is not fixed (other than a maximum end period for the parliament), or if the implication skullduggery is going on was done despite knowing why a clear date was not given.

    Ignorance or maliciousness?
    I'm curious as to how long this is going to go on. When will the penny drop that he gives zero fucks and he's toying with everyone?

    Ignore him. No calls, no visits, no mentions - and no TV ratings. Put together a seperate set of deals and guarantees.
    This is very much my view: I don't think there's any benefit from engaging with the US adminstration beyond the absolute minimum.
    Nations are too afraid of immediate punitive reaction, I don't think many will risk just ignoring him as much as possible.

    Trump knows being a loud bully usually works, it's a life lesson we are all typically aware of (though we sometimes pretend otherwise otherwise) it just doesn't usually apply to national level where diplomatic language soothes things over.
    We are utterly dependent on this guy for our military right now. So we need to smile and tell him how great he is while we de-integrate our military from the US as fast as possible. I hope to God we never put the UK in this situation again.
    Very funny.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,254

    What is the point of the UK or Europe buying US military equipment if it can just be switched off?

    Isn’t this going to make us buy less / trust less American goods?

    Donald doesn’t think that far ahead. US defence companies must be getting heart palpitations.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,686

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    US has stopped sharing all intelligence with Ukraine.

    So when U.S. Key Hole reconnaissance satellites see Kh-101 cruise missiles targeted at power plants and hospitals being loaded on to Tu-95’s in Russia, they won’t be warning Ukraine in advance. Nice, another absolutely unconscionable decision.
    https://x.com/ELINTNews/status/1897303126698549276

    Trump is effectively using civilian lives as leverage for his minerals deals.

    No pretence they'd be getting (probably worthless anyway) security guarantees in exchange for the "minerals deal". Just sign it or we're abandoning you. Blackmail, pure and simple.
    Zelensky has never had any choice but to sign. Even if the other countries involved stumped up heaps of extra cash, we don't have the infrastructure and the kit to take over from the US as the main supplier.

    However, whoever signs up to surrender territory to the Russians after losing so many lifes fighting for it, will not survive politically in Ukraine. Once he signs, it will be the end of Zelensky's Presidency.

    What Trump and Vance's hardballing has done, whether by accident or design, has given Zelensky a shred of dignity to say "I tried - it was the end of the line - they even cut off the Himars etc.". That won't get him re-elected but it does perhaps soften the blow and enhance his reputation.
    You can almost taste the glee as you write those words.

    There's no glee. I am in the position of wanting the war to end, but on terms that guarantee the future security (and viability and prosperity) of Ukraine. That has been my position for about two years - it hasn't changed.
    Yea, it is a similar view to that held by Oswald Mosely and Lord Halifax.
    Mosley was also a fan of a united Europe that was able to stand up to Russia and America.
    Have you managed to procure one of his outfits yet?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,968
    trukat said:

    kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Eabhal said:

    kle4 said:

    https://x.com/trump_repost/status/1897348645588230246

    Justin Trudeau, of Canada, called me to ask what could be done about Tariffs. I told him that many people have died from Fentanyl that came through the Borders of Canada and Mexico, and nothing has convinced me that it has stopped. He said that it's gotten better, but I said, "That's not good enough." The call ended in a "somewhat" friendly manner! He was unable to tell me when the Canadian Election is taking place, which made me curious, like, what's going on here? I then realized he is trying to use this issue to stay in power. Good luck Justin!

    https://x.com/trump_repost/status/1897349263430168706

    For anyone who is interested, I also told Governor Justin Trudeau of Canada that he largely caused the problems we have with them because of his Weak Border Policies, which allowed tremendous amounts of Fentanyl, and Illegal Aliens, to pour into the United States. These Policies are responsible for the death of many people!

    I wonder if he is displaying standard american confusion at the idea a GE date is not fixed (other than a maximum end period for the parliament), or if the implication skullduggery is going on was done despite knowing why a clear date was not given.

    Ignorance or maliciousness?
    I'm curious as to how long this is going to go on. When will the penny drop that he gives zero fucks and he's toying with everyone?

    Ignore him. No calls, no visits, no mentions - and no TV ratings. Put together a seperate set of deals and guarantees.
    This is very much my view: I don't think there's any benefit from engaging with the US adminstration beyond the absolute minimum.
    Nations are too afraid of immediate punitive reaction, I don't think many will risk just ignoring him as much as possible.

    Trump knows being a loud bully usually works, it's a life lesson we are all typically aware of (though we sometimes pretend otherwise otherwise) it just doesn't usually apply to national level where diplomatic language soothes things over.
    We are utterly dependent on this guy for our military right now. So we need to smile and tell him how great he is while we de-integrate our military from the US as fast as possible. I hope to God we never put the UK in this situation again.
    “de-integrate our military from the US as fast as possible”.

    Question is, how quick is fast as possible? considering it’s vital intelligence you don’t want to throw out with the bathwater, shared interlocking technology on long term contracts, and UK nuclear deterrent.

    Perhaps a smarter post than yours suggests diplomatically steering it for 4 years, where it’s a very different US administration, perhaps never again one as disruptive as this?
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,445
    If the US has stopped intelligence sharing with Ukraine, but is obliged to share intelligence with Britain under five eyes, can we share with Ukraine (informally) as a kind of middleman? There must be a few moral people left in the CIA.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,003

    What is the point of the UK or Europe buying US military equipment if it can just be switched off?

    Isn’t this going to make us buy less / trust less American goods?

    Sign the PO off as Israel and you get the really good stuff
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,168
    Cookie said:

    Off thread - sunset from Strangeways: currently where New Manchester meets old Manchester.


    Shame about that Travelodge.

    Sunset from Horizon 22 in the City of London - still free entry!




  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,168
    edited March 5

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    US has stopped sharing all intelligence with Ukraine.

    So when U.S. Key Hole reconnaissance satellites see Kh-101 cruise missiles targeted at power plants and hospitals being loaded on to Tu-95’s in Russia, they won’t be warning Ukraine in advance. Nice, another absolutely unconscionable decision.
    https://x.com/ELINTNews/status/1897303126698549276

    Trump is effectively using civilian lives as leverage for his minerals deals.

    No pretence they'd be getting (probably worthless anyway) security guarantees in exchange for the "minerals deal". Just sign it or we're abandoning you. Blackmail, pure and simple.
    Zelensky has never had any choice but to sign. Even if the other countries involved stumped up heaps of extra cash, we don't have the infrastructure and the kit to take over from the US as the main supplier.

    However, whoever signs up to surrender territory to the Russians after losing so many lifes fighting for it, will not survive politically in Ukraine. Once he signs, it will be the end of Zelensky's Presidency.

    What Trump and Vance's hardballing has done, whether by accident or design, has given Zelensky a shred of dignity to say "I tried - it was the end of the line - they even cut off the Himars etc.". That won't get him re-elected but it does perhaps soften the blow and enhance his reputation.
    You can almost taste the glee as you write those words.

    There's no glee. I am in the position of wanting the war to end, but on terms that guarantee the future security (and viability and prosperity) of Ukraine. That has been my position for about two years - it hasn't changed.
    Yea, it is a similar view to that held by Oswald Mosely and Lord Halifax.
    Mosley was also a fan of a united Europe that was able to stand up to Russia and America.
    Have you managed to procure one of his outfits yet?
    I remember the Mosley biopic many years ago starring Jonathan Cake I believe?
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,686
    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    US has stopped sharing all intelligence with Ukraine.

    So when U.S. Key Hole reconnaissance satellites see Kh-101 cruise missiles targeted at power plants and hospitals being loaded on to Tu-95’s in Russia, they won’t be warning Ukraine in advance. Nice, another absolutely unconscionable decision.
    https://x.com/ELINTNews/status/1897303126698549276

    Trump is effectively using civilian lives as leverage for his minerals deals.

    No pretence they'd be getting (probably worthless anyway) security guarantees in exchange for the "minerals deal". Just sign it or we're abandoning you. Blackmail, pure and simple.
    Zelensky has never had any choice but to sign. Even if the other countries involved stumped up heaps of extra cash, we don't have the infrastructure and the kit to take over from the US as the main supplier.

    However, whoever signs up to surrender territory to the Russians after losing so many lifes fighting for it, will not survive politically in Ukraine. Once he signs, it will be the end of Zelensky's Presidency.

    What Trump and Vance's hardballing has done, whether by accident or design, has given Zelensky a shred of dignity to say "I tried - it was the end of the line - they even cut off the Himars etc.". That won't get him re-elected but it does perhaps soften the blow and enhance his reputation.
    You can almost taste the glee as you write those words.

    There's no glee. I am in the position of wanting the war to end, but on terms that guarantee the future security (and viability and prosperity) of Ukraine. That has been my position for about two years - it hasn't changed.
    Yea, it is a similar view to that held by Oswald Mosely and Lord Halifax.
    Why is a dispassionate assessment of the current situation in Ukraine so difficult for PBers to digest.
    Maybe because it is not really dispassionate, and for those of us that are opposed to a murderous dictator invading a sovereign country and stealing its children and murdering and raping its population it is possible many of us find people attempting to be "dispassionate" thoroughly offensive in the extreme. So fuck your so so-called dispassionate assessment, there is nothing here to be dispassionate about.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,018
    edited March 5
    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    US has stopped sharing all intelligence with Ukraine.

    So when U.S. Key Hole reconnaissance satellites see Kh-101 cruise missiles targeted at power plants and hospitals being loaded on to Tu-95’s in Russia, they won’t be warning Ukraine in advance. Nice, another absolutely unconscionable decision.
    https://x.com/ELINTNews/status/1897303126698549276

    Trump is effectively using civilian lives as leverage for his minerals deals.

    No pretence they'd be getting (probably worthless anyway) security guarantees in exchange for the "minerals deal". Just sign it or we're abandoning you. Blackmail, pure and simple.
    Zelensky has never had any choice but to sign. Even if the other countries involved stumped up heaps of extra cash, we don't have the infrastructure and the kit to take over from the US as the main supplier.

    However, whoever signs up to surrender territory to the Russians after losing so many lifes fighting for it, will not survive politically in Ukraine. Once he signs, it will be the end of Zelensky's Presidency.

    What Trump and Vance's hardballing has done, whether by accident or design, has given Zelensky a shred of dignity to say "I tried - it was the end of the line - they even cut off the Himars etc.". That won't get him re-elected but it does perhaps soften the blow and enhance his reputation.
    You can almost taste the glee as you write those words.

    There's no glee. I am in the position of wanting the war to end, but on terms that guarantee the future security (and viability and prosperity) of Ukraine. That has been my position for about two years - it hasn't changed.
    Yea, it is a similar view to that held by Oswald Mosely and Lord Halifax.
    Why is a dispassionate assessment of the current situation in Ukraine so difficult for PBers to digest.
    Whilst some get too passionate and it may affect their assessments, not all 'dispassionate' assessments are as dispassionate as they may claim, and it is absolutely reasonable to point that out if people think that is what is happening, and I think it is. Not all 'realpolitik' positions are, in fact, pragmatic realpolitik either.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,018
    TimS said:

    If the US has stopped intelligence sharing with Ukraine, but is obliged to share intelligence with Britain under five eyes, can we share with Ukraine (informally) as a kind of middleman? There must be a few moral people left in the CIA.

    Probably required to promise we won't without agreement.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,641
    TimS said:

    If the US has stopped intelligence sharing with Ukraine, but is obliged to share intelligence with Britain under five eyes, can we share with Ukraine (informally) as a kind of middleman? There must be a few moral people left in the CIA.

    No, that was already ruled out yesterday by the United States.

    Washington BANS Britain from sharing any US military intelligence with Ukraine
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14461597/Washington-BANS-Britain-sharing-US-military-intelligence-Ukraine.html
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,632
    Leon said:

    The scandal Jenrick has unearthed is quite spectacular

    Shabana Mahmood seems - to me - to be lying through her teeth

    The Sentencing Council published their new guidelines today, tweeting them out at length, and with all links. No way this was not approved by the government. I do not believe the Home Office "simply didn't notice" the outrageous racist bias (and religious bias) therein

    The document is still there and it's all in black and white, as it were:

    https://www.sentencingcouncil.org.uk/overarching-guides/magistrates-court/item/ imposition-of-community-and-custodial-sentences-overarching-guideline/

    They fully expected this to come into force on April 1, 2025, ie in about three weeks' time

    It is only - as far as I can see - because Bobby Jenrick kicked up a fuss in the Commons tpday that it is now being hastily withdrawn because of course "the Labour government will never tolerate two tier justice in the UK (unless they can get away with and it's not TOO blatant"

    I work in the public sector. I can completely imagine that this got in without approval of Labour politicians.
    1) Senior management in the public sector are completely bought into the concept that white people are inherently guilty. I sat through a lecture last week about hiw terrible the white riots last summer were. No mention, oddly, of the Asian riots after tge Manchester Airport incident - because inky white people are guilty. So I can completely imagine the culture in which this sort of policy emerges it. It's very easy to get anything which purports to favour non-whites into the public sector sausage machine, and - especially as a white male - you would have to be very courageous to challenge it.
    And 2) The volume of stuff which government produces - which politicians must read and be responsible for - is astronomical. I simply cannot believe any minister reads them all - and especially with something like this, can you imagine anyone in the hierarchy highlighting this particular bit? Although if they did, I suspect the ministers are just as scared as the staff of challenging the idea of white-is-bad.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,881

    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    Very good analysis segment of TRIP on JD Vance's contempt for British and French soldiers who served alongside USA forces, and the blowback. I hadn't realised that the total numbers rotating in and out of Afghanistan were 100k+ in toto. His "I didn't mean them" is a bit tricky when 52 countries served in Iraq in the noughties, including 1600 from Ukr. Deep link.

    https://youtu.be/7GQZqPo_Ke4?t=725

    Centrist Dads' supply perspicacious analysis, and context, as ever. JDV's real problem is that he does not look beyond the echo chamber in his own head.

    Useful idiots for Trump continue to reverse ferret, except afaics for Nonny-Nonny-Nigel. And I bet the Leeanderthal Man too, but I haven't checked.

    Feeble centrist dad likes feeble centrist dad content. Startling
    Lol. I go where the analysis leads.

    The Trump-enthusiasts are realising they are naked emperors, and coming to their senses a little.

    Will you be?
    You are very possibly the stupidest person on here, and I find your cluelessly predictable commentary enjoyable for this reason. You're like a guilty pleasure
    You've said that to at least a dozen people.
    Poor memory, or just lots of guilt ?
    No, just a lot of competition for the title "stupidest person on PB"
    You won that title, at the beginning of the week.

    Enough with all this small-dick energy; just try and come to terms with what you were dealt.
    No, you and @kamski and the rest misunderatood the "Charlemage effect". But I am kindly letting it go because I am essentially a nice person and I know you get weirdly querulous and angry when confronted with your personal intellectual limitations. I imagine this peevishness is why your only friend is a dog, but I have no desire to make that loneliness worse, so go forth with my blessing, this sacred Ash Wednesday

    We should all be kinder to each other, like me
    I was intrigued by the works referred to in this discussion and went and read them. What was interesting was that the model is based on assuming that the parents are randomly drawn from all available people in a population. Which is a bit unlikely. The author admits this in his work. But what is undeniable is that if you go back enough generations you will find an individual who everyone alive is a direct descendent of. But that person is unlikely to have been either Rollo of Charlemagne. Then going furthe r back you will reach a point where everyone alive is is either an ancestor of that person or has no surviving descendants.
    The issue at hand was about when that would be. After one generation it’s obviously not. By 1000 years ago it’s plausible, but I think on the whole not proven, and certainly the argument that everyone alive now is descended from everyone at 1000 is not proven.
    I also did some research!

    And what you say is fair. The nature of compounding maths and go-forth-and-multiply does mean that one European person. 1000 years ago, can have tens of millions of living descendants now, and direct descendants at that. However the application of brute force maths can go too far, there are too many confounders, so @kamksi's claim (IIRC) that we are all direct descendants of Rollo is almost certainly wrong (I apologise if I have mischaracterised his argument, its been a busy week in which - not least - I have flown from Shanghai to London)

    It was a fun argument. Especially as I am PROVABLY a direct descendant of Rollo, and also Snurtur, the Norse God of Ice and Fire,



  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,234
    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    The scandal Jenrick has unearthed is quite spectacular

    Shabana Mahmood seems - to me - to be lying through her teeth

    The Sentencing Council published their new guidelines today, tweeting them out at length, and with all links. No way this was not approved by the government. I do not believe the Home Office "simply didn't notice" the outrageous racist bias (and religious bias) therein

    The document is still there and it's all in black and white, as it were:

    https://www.sentencingcouncil.org.uk/overarching-guides/magistrates-court/item/ imposition-of-community-and-custodial-sentences-overarching-guideline/

    They fully expected this to come into force on April 1, 2025, ie in about three weeks' time

    It is only - as far as I can see - because Bobby Jenrick kicked up a fuss in the Commons tpday that it is now being hastily withdrawn because of course "the Labour government will never tolerate two tier justice in the UK (unless they can get away with and it's not TOO blatant"

    I work in the public sector. I can completely imagine that this got in without approval of Labour politicians.
    1) Senior management in the public sector are completely bought into the concept that white people are inherently guilty. I sat through a lecture last week about hiw terrible the white riots last summer were. No mention, oddly, of the Asian riots after tge Manchester Airport incident - because inky white people are guilty. So I can completely imagine the culture in which this sort of policy emerges it. It's very easy to get anything which purports to favour non-whites into the public sector sausage machine, and - especially as a white male - you would have to be very courageous to challenge it.
    And 2) The volume of stuff which government produces - which politicians must read and be responsible for - is astronomical. I simply cannot believe any minister reads them all - and especially with something like this, can you imagine anyone in the hierarchy highlighting this particular bit? Although if they did, I suspect the ministers are just as scared as the staff of challenging the idea of white-is-bad.
    A competent minister should read all key changes in their department area, Jenrick managed it and he is only the Shadow Minister
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,281
    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    ...

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    A win for Jenrick:

    https://x.com/shabanamahmood/status/1897338599542006132

    The Sentencing Council is entirely independent.

    Today's updated guidelines do not represent my views or the views of this government.

    I will be writing to the Sentencing Council to register my displeasure and to recommend reversing this change to guidance.


    https://x.com/robertjenrick/status/1897340914806473169

    The Justice Secretary is trying to play dumb.

    I’ve read the minutes of the meeting it was agreed and her “personal representative” was there.

    No objections were minuted.

    This is the Labour Party’s policy under Two-Tier Kier.

    Wow, well done Bobby J. Sharp, clever politics and a clear win

    Sigh. The Tories really did choose the wrong one of the two
    The issue with such things is that if X was not good enough to beat Y in a contest, would they actually have been that good if they had won? Applies in many such instances, see the years long love affair with David Miliband.
    Jenrick has been smarter, sharper and punchier in taking on Labour, than Kemi. I suspect he would regularly duff up Starmer in PMQs

    Of course this might be hopecasting, but today is an example of how he can set the agenda and trouble Labour in a way Kemi apparently finds impossible (and I like her, and I wanted her to be given the chance, but I fear she has fluffed it, and she's simply not up to it)

    Jenrick has a nasty ruthless streak. Probably a good thing in a LOTO
    He also puts the fear of God into the CCHQ hierarchy, who apparently want to install CLEVERLY to replace Kemi ffs. The idiot who cheated his own way out of the leadership race.
    Cleverly wants to run for London Mayor, if Kemi went it would likely be her Shadow Chancellor Stride who replaced her before the next GE
    Reasonable candidate for it I guess. Still think Boris would have done better.
    Cleverly would be a great candidate for London mayor. I suspect he'd win, tho that depends on who Labour put up (surely the loathsome Khan won't go for a fourth tilt?). Cleverly would be a bloody disaster as LOTO, another milquetoast Sunakite Cameroony wet, he would take the party nowhere, and fast
    Cleverley's best hope is for Khan to run again - in the May 2024 Mayoral election, Khan got 44% and Susan Hall for the Tories got 33%. In the GE two months later, Labour got 43% in London, the Conservatives 20.6% so Hall was able to get a significant anti-Khan vote to come to the Conservatives whereas in the GE the Conservative vote collapsed.

    I suspect Khan won't run again and a "new" Labour candidate will be much harder to beat.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,742

    TimS said:

    If the US has stopped intelligence sharing with Ukraine, but is obliged to share intelligence with Britain under five eyes, can we share with Ukraine (informally) as a kind of middleman? There must be a few moral people left in the CIA.

    No, that was already ruled out yesterday by the United States.

    Washington BANS Britain from sharing any US military intelligence with Ukraine
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14461597/Washington-BANS-Britain-sharing-US-military-intelligence-Ukraine.html
    Obviously we should not be sharing any intelligence with them that we don't want Russia to know. They simply can no longer be trusted.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,018
    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    The scandal Jenrick has unearthed is quite spectacular

    Shabana Mahmood seems - to me - to be lying through her teeth

    The Sentencing Council published their new guidelines today, tweeting them out at length, and with all links. No way this was not approved by the government. I do not believe the Home Office "simply didn't notice" the outrageous racist bias (and religious bias) therein

    The document is still there and it's all in black and white, as it were:

    https://www.sentencingcouncil.org.uk/overarching-guides/magistrates-court/item/ imposition-of-community-and-custodial-sentences-overarching-guideline/

    They fully expected this to come into force on April 1, 2025, ie in about three weeks' time

    It is only - as far as I can see - because Bobby Jenrick kicked up a fuss in the Commons tpday that it is now being hastily withdrawn because of course "the Labour government will never tolerate two tier justice in the UK (unless they can get away with and it's not TOO blatant"

    I work in the public sector. I can completely imagine that this got in without approval of Labour politicians.
    1) Senior management in the public sector are completely bought into the concept that white people are inherently guilty. I sat through a lecture last week about hiw terrible the white riots last summer were. No mention, oddly, of the Asian riots after tge Manchester Airport incident - because inky white people are guilty. So I can completely imagine the culture in which this sort of policy emerges it. It's very easy to get anything which purports to favour non-whites into the public sector sausage machine, and - especially as a white male - you would have to be very courageous to challenge it.
    And 2) The volume of stuff which government produces - which politicians must read and be responsible for - is astronomical. I simply cannot believe any minister reads them all - and especially with something like this, can you imagine anyone in the hierarchy highlighting this particular bit? Although if they did, I suspect the ministers are just as scared as the staff of challenging the idea of white-is-bad.
    Sentencing guidelines is sufficiently controversial that someone should have flagged up for the minister, even if it is true there's no way to actually fine tooth comb 99% of stuff.

    On 1), there is something to that I'm afraid, though my impression is it is getting some pushback, though not universally. I've seen more egregious stuff toned down in the last couple of years.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,563
    Rishi on BBC2 now.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,881

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    The scandal Jenrick has unearthed is quite spectacular

    Shabana Mahmood seems - to me - to be lying through her teeth

    The Sentencing Council published their new guidelines today, tweeting them out at length, and with all links. No way this was not approved by the government. I do not believe the Home Office "simply didn't notice" the outrageous racist bias (and religious bias) therein

    The document is still there and it's all in black and white, as it were:

    https://www.sentencingcouncil.org.uk/overarching-guides/magistrates-court/item/ imposition-of-community-and-custodial-sentences-overarching-guideline/

    They fully expected this to come into force on April 1, 2025, ie in about three weeks' time

    It is only - as far as I can see - because Bobby Jenrick kicked up a fuss in the Commons tpday that it is now being hastily withdrawn because of course "the Labour government will never tolerate two tier justice in the UK (unless they can get away with and it's not TOO blatant"

    As previously posted, the Justice Secretary ruled it out immediately when Jenrick asked the question, so at the very least she is fast on her feet.

    Jenrick of course knows all this because he was there, but is clearly after Kemi's job. As it happens, Kemi had her best PMQs in weeks (see last thread).

    Here for the third time is the Hansard link:-
    Robert Jenrick: Why is the Justice Secretary enshrining this double standard—this two-tier approach to sentencing? It is an inversion of the rule of law. Conservative Members believe in equality under the law; why does she not?

    Shabana Mahmood: Finally, as somebody from an ethnic minority background, I do not stand for any differential treatment before the law for anyone. There will never be a two-tier sentencing approach under my watch or under this Labour Government.
    https://hansard.parliament.uk/Commons/2025-03-05/debates/04627A5E-E10E-4D14-98EF-9164949B89F4/CourtsAndTribunalsSittingDays
    So, why was the Sentencing Council - surely with Home Office and Justice Secretary approval (how could they not have that??) - confidently tweeting out their new guidelines today, which have taken months or years to prepare, so they coud be enacted at the end of this month? As that was, it seems, the plan?

    Did Shabana Mahmood simply not notice this outrageous "two tier racism" until Jenrick pointed it out? If she didn't notice that is grave negligence - this is her job - or perhaps she is lying, and got caught
    If it has taken years to prepare that would indicate it was prepared in part by the last government?
    Yep, there are some indications this insanity also began under the Tories (like Chagos)

    Jeez, how bad were the Tories from 2010-2024???

    This is why the Tories must be destroyed, or taken over by Reform
    You are OK with the Conservative Party being taken over by a lickspittle Putin apologist? Maybe you are sympathetic to Vlad and his child stealing murderous ways and agree with Farage that it is all NATO's fault? If you do you are an even bigger twat than I thought you were.
    No, I just want the Tories to die. To expire. To be gone. To be vomited into the bucket of bye bye. To be purged from history and thrown into the dungheap of doomsday, and good fucking riddance. I despise them

    I suspect that, in these quite negative feelings, I am not alone
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,141
    DavidL said:

    TimS said:

    If the US has stopped intelligence sharing with Ukraine, but is obliged to share intelligence with Britain under five eyes, can we share with Ukraine (informally) as a kind of middleman? There must be a few moral people left in the CIA.

    No, that was already ruled out yesterday by the United States.

    Washington BANS Britain from sharing any US military intelligence with Ukraine
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14461597/Washington-BANS-Britain-sharing-US-military-intelligence-Ukraine.html
    Obviously we should not be sharing any intelligence with them that we don't want Russia to know. They simply can no longer be trusted.
    We could use it to feed disinformation to the Russians.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,556
    edited March 5

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    US has stopped sharing all intelligence with Ukraine.

    So when U.S. Key Hole reconnaissance satellites see Kh-101 cruise missiles targeted at power plants and hospitals being loaded on to Tu-95’s in Russia, they won’t be warning Ukraine in advance. Nice, another absolutely unconscionable decision.
    https://x.com/ELINTNews/status/1897303126698549276

    Trump is effectively using civilian lives as leverage for his minerals deals.

    No pretence they'd be getting (probably worthless anyway) security guarantees in exchange for the "minerals deal". Just sign it or we're abandoning you. Blackmail, pure and simple.
    Zelensky has never had any choice but to sign. Even if the other countries involved stumped up heaps of extra cash, we don't have the infrastructure and the kit to take over from the US as the main supplier.

    However, whoever signs up to surrender territory to the Russians after losing so many lifes fighting for it, will not survive politically in Ukraine. Once he signs, it will be the end of Zelensky's Presidency.

    What Trump and Vance's hardballing has done, whether by accident or design, has given Zelensky a shred of dignity to say "I tried - it was the end of the line - they even cut off the Himars etc.". That won't get him re-elected but it does perhaps soften the blow and enhance his reputation.
    You can almost taste the glee as you write those words.

    There's no glee. I am in the position of wanting the war to end, but on terms that guarantee the future security (and viability and prosperity) of Ukraine. That has been my position for about two years - it hasn't changed.
    Yea, it is a similar view to that held by Oswald Mosely and Lord Halifax.
    Why is a dispassionate assessment of the current situation in Ukraine so difficult for PBers to digest.
    Maybe because it is not really dispassionate, and for those of us that are opposed to a murderous dictator invading a sovereign country and stealing its children and murdering and raping its population it is possible many of us find people attempting to be "dispassionate" thoroughly offensive in the extreme. So fuck your so so-called dispassionate assessment, there is nothing here to be dispassionate about.
    Lol you're a funny guy. You seem quite desperate to prove to us that you are opposed to a murderous dictator invading a sovereign country and stealing its children and whatnot.

    But I don't believe you.

    Tosser, absolutely. Anti murderous dictator, etc? No way.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,881
    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    The scandal Jenrick has unearthed is quite spectacular

    Shabana Mahmood seems - to me - to be lying through her teeth

    The Sentencing Council published their new guidelines today, tweeting them out at length, and with all links. No way this was not approved by the government. I do not believe the Home Office "simply didn't notice" the outrageous racist bias (and religious bias) therein

    The document is still there and it's all in black and white, as it were:

    https://www.sentencingcouncil.org.uk/overarching-guides/magistrates-court/item/ imposition-of-community-and-custodial-sentences-overarching-guideline/

    They fully expected this to come into force on April 1, 2025, ie in about three weeks' time

    It is only - as far as I can see - because Bobby Jenrick kicked up a fuss in the Commons tpday that it is now being hastily withdrawn because of course "the Labour government will never tolerate two tier justice in the UK (unless they can get away with and it's not TOO blatant"

    I work in the public sector. I can completely imagine that this got in without approval of Labour politicians.
    1) Senior management in the public sector are completely bought into the concept that white people are inherently guilty. I sat through a lecture last week about hiw terrible the white riots last summer were. No mention, oddly, of the Asian riots after tge Manchester Airport incident - because inky white people are guilty. So I can completely imagine the culture in which this sort of policy emerges it. It's very easy to get anything which purports to favour non-whites into the public sector sausage machine, and - especially as a white male - you would have to be very courageous to challenge it.
    And 2) The volume of stuff which government produces - which politicians must read and be responsible for - is astronomical. I simply cannot believe any minister reads them all - and especially with something like this, can you imagine anyone in the hierarchy highlighting this particular bit? Although if they did, I suspect the ministers are just as scared as the staff of challenging the idea of white-is-bad.
    Deeply depressing, but sounds quite plausible. I don't know how you tolerate it

    And on that sober note, I am gonna walk up Primrose Hill. Tis a cold but beautifully clear evening. Later
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,632
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    Very good analysis segment of TRIP on JD Vance's contempt for British and French soldiers who served alongside USA forces, and the blowback. I hadn't realised that the total numbers rotating in and out of Afghanistan were 100k+ in toto. His "I didn't mean them" is a bit tricky when 52 countries served in Iraq in the noughties, including 1600 from Ukr. Deep link.

    https://youtu.be/7GQZqPo_Ke4?t=725

    Centrist Dads' supply perspicacious analysis, and context, as ever. JDV's real problem is that he does not look beyond the echo chamber in his own head.

    Useful idiots for Trump continue to reverse ferret, except afaics for Nonny-Nonny-Nigel. And I bet the Leeanderthal Man too, but I haven't checked.

    Feeble centrist dad likes feeble centrist dad content. Startling
    Lol. I go where the analysis leads.

    The Trump-enthusiasts are realising they are naked emperors, and coming to their senses a little.

    Will you be?
    You are very possibly the stupidest person on here, and I find your cluelessly predictable commentary enjoyable for this reason. You're like a guilty pleasure
    You've said that to at least a dozen people.
    Poor memory, or just lots of guilt ?
    No, just a lot of competition for the title "stupidest person on PB"
    You won that title, at the beginning of the week.

    Enough with all this small-dick energy; just try and come to terms with what you were dealt.
    No, you and @kamski and the rest misunderatood the "Charlemage effect". But I am kindly letting it go because I am essentially a nice person and I know you get weirdly querulous and angry when confronted with your personal intellectual limitations. I imagine this peevishness is why your only friend is a dog, but I have no desire to make that loneliness worse, so go forth with my blessing, this sacred Ash Wednesday

    We should all be kinder to each other, like me
    I was intrigued by the works referred to in this discussion and went and read them. What was interesting was that the model is based on assuming that the parents are randomly drawn from all available people in a population. Which is a bit unlikely. The author admits this in his work. But what is undeniable is that if you go back enough generations you will find an individual who everyone alive is a direct descendent of. But that person is unlikely to have been either Rollo of Charlemagne. Then going furthe r back you will reach a point where everyone alive is is either an ancestor of that person or has no surviving descendants.
    The issue at hand was about when that would be. After one generation it’s obviously not. By 1000 years ago it’s plausible, but I think on the whole not proven, and certainly the argument that everyone alive now is descended from everyone at 1000 is not proven.
    I also did some research!

    And what you say is fair. The nature of compounding maths and go-forth-and-multiply does mean that one European person. 1000 years ago, can have tens of millions of living descendants now, and direct descendants at that. However the application of brute force maths can go too far, there are too many confounders, so @kamksi's claim (IIRC) that we are all direct descendants of Rollo is almost certainly wrong (I apologise if I have mischaracterised his argument, its been a busy week in which - not least - I have flown from Shanghai to London)

    It was a fun argument. Especially as I am PROVABLY a direct descendant of Rollo, and also Snurtur, the Norse God of Ice and Fire,



    Well yes, me too - provably - but the odds of anyone today with vaguely British antecedents NOT being (albeit not probavly) are infitessimal - like, trillions to one against.

    I've also done a mathematical model. It's true that like mates with like, but it's also true that historically, rich people had rather more children than poor people (including many illegitimate ones), and also that downward social mobility was the norm. Aristocracy are disproprotionately common in our genes.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,003
    Sean_F said:

    TimS said:

    If the US has stopped intelligence sharing with Ukraine, but is obliged to share intelligence with Britain under five eyes, can we share with Ukraine (informally) as a kind of middleman? There must be a few moral people left in the CIA.

    No, that was already ruled out yesterday by the United States.

    Washington BANS Britain from sharing any US military intelligence with Ukraine
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14461597/Washington-BANS-Britain-sharing-US-military-intelligence-Ukraine.html
    We should just leak it anyway, since our intelligence is being leaked to Moscow.

    There is nothing to gain by trying to appease a hostile government, which is unappeasable.
    Are you talking about the USA or Russia ?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,249
    Pulpstar said:

    Sean_F said:

    TimS said:

    If the US has stopped intelligence sharing with Ukraine, but is obliged to share intelligence with Britain under five eyes, can we share with Ukraine (informally) as a kind of middleman? There must be a few moral people left in the CIA.

    No, that was already ruled out yesterday by the United States.

    Washington BANS Britain from sharing any US military intelligence with Ukraine
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14461597/Washington-BANS-Britain-sharing-US-military-intelligence-Ukraine.html
    We should just leak it anyway, since our intelligence is being leaked to Moscow.

    There is nothing to gain by trying to appease a hostile government, which is unappeasable.
    Are you talking about the USA or Russia ?
    Both, really.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,556
    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    The scandal Jenrick has unearthed is quite spectacular

    Shabana Mahmood seems - to me - to be lying through her teeth

    The Sentencing Council published their new guidelines today, tweeting them out at length, and with all links. No way this was not approved by the government. I do not believe the Home Office "simply didn't notice" the outrageous racist bias (and religious bias) therein

    The document is still there and it's all in black and white, as it were:

    https://www.sentencingcouncil.org.uk/overarching-guides/magistrates-court/item/ imposition-of-community-and-custodial-sentences-overarching-guideline/

    They fully expected this to come into force on April 1, 2025, ie in about three weeks' time

    It is only - as far as I can see - because Bobby Jenrick kicked up a fuss in the Commons tpday that it is now being hastily withdrawn because of course "the Labour government will never tolerate two tier justice in the UK (unless they can get away with and it's not TOO blatant"

    I work in the public sector. I can completely imagine that this got in without approval of Labour politicians.
    1) Senior management in the public sector are completely bought into the concept that white people are inherently guilty. I sat through a lecture last week about hiw terrible the white riots last summer were. No mention, oddly, of the Asian riots after tge Manchester Airport incident - because inky white people are guilty. So I can completely imagine the culture in which this sort of policy emerges it. It's very easy to get anything which purports to favour non-whites into the public sector sausage machine, and - especially as a white male - you would have to be very courageous to challenge it.
    And 2) The volume of stuff which government produces - which politicians must read and be responsible for - is astronomical. I simply cannot believe any minister reads them all - and especially with something like this, can you imagine anyone in the hierarchy highlighting this particular bit? Although if they did, I suspect the ministers are just as scared as the staff of challenging the idea of white-is-bad.
    Deeply depressing, but sounds quite plausible. I don't know how you tolerate it

    And on that sober note, I am gonna walk up Primrose Hill. Tis a cold but beautifully clear evening. Later
    Probably nicer than Bermondsey.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,742

    DavidL said:

    TimS said:

    If the US has stopped intelligence sharing with Ukraine, but is obliged to share intelligence with Britain under five eyes, can we share with Ukraine (informally) as a kind of middleman? There must be a few moral people left in the CIA.

    No, that was already ruled out yesterday by the United States.

    Washington BANS Britain from sharing any US military intelligence with Ukraine
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14461597/Washington-BANS-Britain-sharing-US-military-intelligence-Ukraine.html
    Obviously we should not be sharing any intelligence with them that we don't want Russia to know. They simply can no longer be trusted.
    We could use it to feed disinformation to the Russians.
    We could slip in where Zelenskyy is going to be and see if a missile heads in that direction, for example.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,881
    Jenrick has played a blinder

    Questions are coming from all sides:

    "I don’t quite understand how Shabana Mahmood can simultaneously claim the Sentencing Council is independent but then pledge there will be no two-tier sentencing on her watch. Has this happened on her watch or hasn’t it."


    https://x.com/DPJHodges/status/1897352446596542844
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,281
    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    The scandal Jenrick has unearthed is quite spectacular

    Shabana Mahmood seems - to me - to be lying through her teeth

    The Sentencing Council published their new guidelines today, tweeting them out at length, and with all links. No way this was not approved by the government. I do not believe the Home Office "simply didn't notice" the outrageous racist bias (and religious bias) therein

    The document is still there and it's all in black and white, as it were:

    https://www.sentencingcouncil.org.uk/overarching-guides/magistrates-court/item/ imposition-of-community-and-custodial-sentences-overarching-guideline/

    They fully expected this to come into force on April 1, 2025, ie in about three weeks' time

    It is only - as far as I can see - because Bobby Jenrick kicked up a fuss in the Commons tpday that it is now being hastily withdrawn because of course "the Labour government will never tolerate two tier justice in the UK (unless they can get away with and it's not TOO blatant"

    I work in the public sector. I can completely imagine that this got in without approval of Labour politicians.
    1) Senior management in the public sector are completely bought into the concept that white people are inherently guilty. I sat through a lecture last week about hiw terrible the white riots last summer were. No mention, oddly, of the Asian riots after tge Manchester Airport incident - because inky white people are guilty. So I can completely imagine the culture in which this sort of policy emerges it. It's very easy to get anything which purports to favour non-whites into the public sector sausage machine, and - especially as a white male - you would have to be very courageous to challenge it.
    And 2) The volume of stuff which government produces - which politicians must read and be responsible for - is astronomical. I simply cannot believe any minister reads them all - and especially with something like this, can you imagine anyone in the hierarchy highlighting this particular bit? Although if they did, I suspect the ministers are just as scared as the staff of challenging the idea of white-is-bad.
    Deeply depressing, but sounds quite plausible. I don't know how you tolerate it

    And on that sober note, I am gonna walk up Primrose Hill. Tis a cold but beautifully clear evening. Later
    Probably nicer than Bermondsey.
    Probably nicer than East Ham.
Sign In or Register to comment.