politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The other polling news tonight – ComRes has the NHS moving

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  • MikeL
    MikeL Posts: 7,809
    11 polls this year - average Lab lead = 0.73%.
  • NickPalmer
    NickPalmer Posts: 21,724
    Exciting. Regression to the mean wins!

    Sometimes the foreplay is better than the event, eh?
  • bigjohnowls
    bigjohnowls Posts: 22,951
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Where's the YouGov, some of us want to go to bed.

    Mrs BJ says I should go in the spare room tonight.

    She claims its the curry smell but I know she is actually scared of the Brummy Muslim reprisals
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    @Sun_Politics: YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by one: CON 32%, LAB 33%, LD 6%, UKIP 17%, GRN 6%

    Not much change, so Lord A was an outlier as suspected.
  • felix
    felix Posts: 15,180
    bigjohnowls said:

    felix said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    felix said:

    Pong said:

    GeoffM said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    My night out in Birmingham survived without a single Fatwa despite us all being non muslims

    Yes, instead you worship the NHS which is another religion that kills people.
    Seriously?

    You think the NHS kills people?
    StaffordStaffordStaffordStaffordStafford ..... got it????
    Hinchinbrooke much more topical on the soil yourself front.

    In fact its the only inadequate hospital currently according to CQC.
    Thanks to five years of sound govt.
    Why is the care at the only hospital not run by the public sector the worst in the country do you think.

    Coincidence?
    God you are really sad - you choose to ignore the horrors of Stafford under Labour's watch with desperate bleating about a hospital which to all intenets and purposes was privatised by Andy Burnham and whose problems are nowhere near as bad. Get a life.
  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    NickPalmer said:

    CON 32%, LAB 33%, LD 6%, UKIP 17%, GRN 6%

    Kippers tumbling back down after Hebdo blip
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    welshowl said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    GeoffM said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    My night out in Birmingham survived without a single Fatwa despite us all being non muslims

    Yes, instead you worship the NHS which is another religion that kills people.
    Every health system saves lives.

    The NHS does this in a fair, effective and inexpensive way compared to the US system you trumpet all the time.

    Why don't you move there!!
    I too abhor the U.S. system. It's nuts.

    However, I am seriously concerned by the NHS being " weaponised " and put on an untouchable plinth by shroud wavers. All institutions need to reform ( if only in the case of the NHS due to changing age demographics for example compared to 30 years ago) and I fear we will lose the ability to sensibly and needfully reform if the shroud wavers make it an unreformable sacred cow. That will eventually destroy it and that would be truly awful.
    Any "discussion" of the NHS always turns into NHS vs US. There are 100's of other countries, many with excellent healthcare system, who use neither the UK or US model. It is not a binary choice, both on the funding and provision side of things.
    Sadly I cannot see a discussion, genuine discussion, breaking out anytime soon, as I cannot see the circumstances by which it could emerge. I guess at some point it will be impossible to simply paper over any cracks with money, to avoid seeing which are superficial and which are not, but for all the problems in the news, as the discussion remains so partisan and alternate voices, whether I agree with them or not, would not be heard seriously I am sure, at present the cracks are being ignored in favour of yet more fresh coats of paint being promised.
  • bigjohnowls
    bigjohnowls Posts: 22,951
    Tonights YG EICIPM
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    DavidL said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    DavidL said:

    Surely at least a drum roll is in order?

    For yougov?
    Yes, although Nick's comment is much funnier.

    Its pretty sad isn't it when we are looking for Yougov to act as some sort of arbiter?
    Yup. It is. It's a pretty boring one too so I'm signing off for the night.

    (plus Nick is being downright dirty in his posts, which is disturbing me)
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    NickPalmer said:

    Exciting. Regression to the mean wins!

    Sometimes the foreplay is better than the event, eh?

    A few years ago, my then girlfriend has just left me for a guy from Norfolk.

    She said he's better at foreplay.

    To be fair, I can't compete, he has 8 fingers on each hand

  • TCPoliticalBetting
    TCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    Speedy said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    @Sun_Politics: YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by one: CON 32%, LAB 33%, LD 6%, UKIP 17%, GRN 6%

    Not much change, so Lord A was an outlier as suspected.
    Greens and LDs level pegging again. No sign of an upturn in LD fortunes. Ominous for a party hoping to get 15%+ on GE day.
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    MikeL said:

    11 polls this year - average Lab lead = 0.73%.

    Sufficient, unfortunately.

    Night all.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    As I said, the Populus and Lord Ashcroft polls were outliers.
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Tuesday's Times front page:

    Labour plan to borrow risks £170bn extra debt

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B7LtK4nCYAAGFoj.jpg

    Ermm the irony of that is that the Tories piled much more than 170 billion in extra debt while in government.
  • Smarmeron
    Smarmeron Posts: 5,099
    And now.....
    a cigarette and post coital depression.
  • GIN1138
    GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    I think out of today's three polls YouGov has it right - Con and Lab virtually tied.
  • NickPalmer
    NickPalmer Posts: 21,724
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    As I said, the Populus and Lord Ashcroft polls were outliers.

    That's my guess. I think the rule we agreed at New Year is still sound - don't get excited unless three successive polls point in the same direction.
  • edmundintokyo
    edmundintokyo Posts: 17,735
    OT David Cameron wants to ban multiplying large prime numbers, or something.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/news/whatsapp-and-snapchat-could-be-banned-under-new-surveillance-plans-9973035.html
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    bigjohnowls said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Where's the YouGov, some of us want to go to bed.

    Mrs BJ says I should go in the spare room tonight.

    She claims its the curry smell but I know she is actually scared of the Brummy Muslim reprisals
    Funny, I've been known to call my own wife by the same name from time to time.
  • Danny565
    Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Labour really need to look at that issues table and the proof of how "left-leaning" the public currently are on economic issues, then look at their own mediocre poll ratings and ask themselves questions. There are 3 issues in the public's top 5 where Labour should be making hay if they just sorted out some distinctive policies, yet they're completely squandering the chance by obsessively chasing after the minority 19% who care about the deficit.
  • TCPoliticalBetting
    TCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    kle4 said:

    glw said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Douglas Carswell MP ‏@DouglasCarswell · 3 mins3 minutes ago
    It is good that Mr Cameron does not want to pass on mega public debt to the next generation. But he needs to tell George, who has doubled it

    The sad thing is Carswell isn't actually stupid, so he most know that statement it disingenuous. Debt would have increased substantially no matter who was in power, the only thing that might have avoided it doing so is a) hyper-austerity which somehow doesn't trash the economy, or b) China-like economic growth being magicked out of thin air.

    Writing such nonsense says a lot more about Carswell than it does the Tories or economics.
    In this case, I must agree. Carswell has gone a bit overboard since he joined UKIP, the passion of the converted, and while I don't personally mind who he chooses to focus his ire upon, some of it seems more calculating than before, when he was very good not appearing so, even when he was.
    What he is not doing is attracting over Conservative MPs that are outside his mates. Is coming across as partisan and u-turning like the worst politicians.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,724
    edmundintokyo said:

    OT David Cameron wants to ban multiplying large prime numbers, or something.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/news/whatsapp-and-snapchat-could-be-banned-under-new-surveillance-plans-9973035.html

    I wish somebody would bloody explain that to Cameron...

  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    TGOHF said:

    NickPalmer said:

    CON 32%, LAB 33%, LD 6%, UKIP 17%, GRN 6%

    Kippers tumbling back down after Hebdo blip
    Yeah, a mightily huge -1.
    Or, the poll generally hasn't shown much change for any party since Saturday.
  • GIN1138
    GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    bigjohnowls said:

    Tonights YG EICIPM

    I didn't see but was EICIPM with The Good Lord? Must have been close to EICINPM?

  • Tissue_Price
    Tissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Newsnight just showed the CH cover.
  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Evan Davis shows the CH cover on Newsnight.
  • TCPoliticalBetting
    TCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    Smarmeron said:

    And now.....
    a cigarette and post coital depression.

    Hand got tired?
  • philiph
    philiph Posts: 4,705
    Evan Davies (e or no e??) was not happy showing the cover on Newsnight just now.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    edited January 2015
    NickPalmer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    As I said, the Populus and Lord Ashcroft polls were outliers.

    That's my guess. I think the rule we agreed at New Year is still sound - don't get excited unless three successive polls point in the same direction.
    In the next 9 days, we should have

    7 YouGovs, 1 Lord Ashcroft poll, 1 ComRes online poll, 1 Opinium poll, 1 ICM phone poll, 1 Ipsos-Mori poll, 2 Populus polls and a ICM wisdom poll

    Next Monday could be a MegaPollingMonday with 4 polls.
  • Smarmeron
    Smarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @edmundintokyo

    I think this is what in poker circles is called "overplaying your hand"
  • GIN1138
    GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    philiph said:

    Evan Davies (e or no e??) was not happy showing the cover on Newsnight just now.

    Perhaps he think's he's going to become a target?

  • TCPoliticalBetting
    TCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    OT David Cameron wants to ban multiplying large prime numbers, or something.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/news/whatsapp-and-snapchat-could-be-banned-under-new-surveillance-plans-9973035.html

    I wish somebody would bloody explain that to Cameron...
    He could ask Letwin but that would end up with more confusion and papers lost in parks.
  • Tissue_Price
    Tissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    GIN1138 said:

    philiph said:

    Evan Davies (e or no e??) was not happy showing the cover on Newsnight just now.

    Perhaps he think's he's going to become a target?

    This article is pretty craven in not showing it: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-30786211
  • chestnut
    chestnut Posts: 7,341
    Yougov named leader turnaround = 5 points.

    33-32 Labour = 34-30 Cameron. (almost Ashcroft and Mori)

    Continuity government coming.

    Tory-LD coalition again.
  • Smarmeron
    Smarmeron Posts: 5,099
    edited January 2015
    @TCPoliticalBetting

    There are only two types of men in the world, w8nkers and liars, which are you?
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    edmundintokyo said:

    OT David Cameron wants to ban multiplying large prime numbers, or something.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/news/whatsapp-and-snapchat-could-be-banned-under-new-surveillance-plans-9973035.html

    Thank God that the Tories have an extremely small chance of winning the next election.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    edited January 2015
    Kippers are suffering a slight downward trend, according to the averages. LDs still dire as ever. Green surge unabated (hides from MarkSenior)

    http://goo.gl/9RfFdf
  • TCPoliticalBetting
    TCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    philiph said:

    Evan Davies (e or no e??) was not happy showing the cover on Newsnight just now.

    True. He must be missing the Radio job.
  • TCPoliticalBetting
    TCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    Smarmeron said:

    @TCPoliticalBetting

    There are only two types of men in the world, w8nkers and liars, which are you?

    One with a friendly lady who looks after me.
  • Flightpath
    Flightpath Posts: 4,012
    welshowl said:

    glw said:

    DavidL said:

    I would not want to offend many posters on this site by suggesting that joining UKIP seems to involve taking a stupidity pill so I will merely hypothesise that he kept it better hidden before.

    I feel a bit sad for him, he must know that he's now having to say and write a lot of stupid things about his opponents, I do wonder if his heart is really in it or if he's having second thoughts.
    Yeah he's too bright to believe what he's having to spout now I'm sure. Party line stuff.
    'Stuff your party line' was his parting quip wasn't it?

    Look - The emperor has no clothes.
  • bigjohnowls
    bigjohnowls Posts: 22,951
    felix said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    felix said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    felix said:

    Pong said:

    GeoffM said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    My night out in Birmingham survived without a single Fatwa despite us all being non muslims

    Yes, instead you worship the NHS which is another religion that kills people.
    Seriously?

    You think the NHS kills people?
    StaffordStaffordStaffordStaffordStafford ..... got it????
    Hinchinbrooke much more topical on the soil yourself front.

    In fact its the only inadequate hospital currently according to CQC.
    Thanks to five years of sound govt.
    Why is the care at the only hospital not run by the public sector the worst in the country do you think.

    Coincidence?
    God you are really sad - you choose to ignore the horrors of Stafford under Labour's watch with desperate bleating about a hospital which to all intenets and purposes was privatised by Andy Burnham and whose problems are nowhere near as bad. Get a life.
    AB did not appoint Circle in Nov 2011

    I have never defended the standard of care at Stafford

    Circle did a lousy job just admit it.

    Read the CQC report if you don't believe me.

    PB Tories were claiming Hinchinbrooke had been turned round by the private sector they were right turned into a failing hospital.
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    NickPalmer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    As I said, the Populus and Lord Ashcroft polls were outliers.

    That's my guess. I think the rule we agreed at New Year is still sound - don't get excited unless three successive polls point in the same direction.
    In the next 9 days, we should have

    7 YouGovs, 1 Lord Ashcroft poll, 1 ComRes online poll, 1 Opinium poll, 1 ICM phone poll, 1 Ipsos-Mori poll, 2 Populus polls and a ICM wisdom poll

    Next Monday could be a MegaPollingMonday with 4 polls.
    Soon we will have a problem fitting all those polls in a single thread.
  • ashley
    ashley Posts: 19
    ashcroft is the outlier. populus is in line with trend, albeit with Labour at the top end of MoE.

    ashcroft's polling is all over the place generally, and quite opaque - no-one even seems sure who does his polling for him.

    still, nice to have some interesting polls to give PB a break from the endless obsessive Muslim bashing.
  • Socrates
    Socrates Posts: 10,322
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    OT David Cameron wants to ban multiplying large prime numbers, or something.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/news/whatsapp-and-snapchat-could-be-banned-under-new-surveillance-plans-9973035.html

    I wish somebody would bloody explain that to Cameron...

    Cameron seems like he's on a mission to offend every constituency that makes up the conservative coalition.
  • NickPalmer
    NickPalmer Posts: 21,724
    edited January 2015
    edmundintokyo said:

    OT David Cameron wants to ban multiplying large prime numbers, or something.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/news/whatsapp-and-snapchat-could-be-banned-under-new-surveillance-plans-9973035.html



    Cameron miraculously energises the youth vote...
  • philiph
    philiph Posts: 4,705
    Smarmeron said:

    @TCPoliticalBetting

    There are only two types of men in the world, w8nkers and liars, which are you?

    Wisdom is knowing when to delegate and who to delegate to.
  • Smarmeron
    Smarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @ashleyashley
    For some on here it was "bishop bashing day".
    Some are even channeling it subliminally.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Speedy said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    NickPalmer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    As I said, the Populus and Lord Ashcroft polls were outliers.

    That's my guess. I think the rule we agreed at New Year is still sound - don't get excited unless three successive polls point in the same direction.
    In the next 9 days, we should have

    7 YouGovs, 1 Lord Ashcroft poll, 1 ComRes online poll, 1 Opinium poll, 1 ICM phone poll, 1 Ipsos-Mori poll, 2 Populus polls and a ICM wisdom poll

    Next Monday could be a MegaPollingMonday with 4 polls.
    Soon we will have a problem fitting all those polls in a single thread.
    Tell me about it, feel sorry for Mike, he's going to criticised from all sides for not covering each poll.
  • Moses_
    Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    edited January 2015
    bigjohnowls said:

    Moses_ said:

    What a surprise ! Err not .

    Don't mention Stafford, Welsh NHS , GPS contacts or AB privatising the only NHS hospital
    ( upsets big John)

    ;-)

    LOL NHS surely an election winning issue for the Tories.

    Not surprising that its not one of their key themes.

    I particularly like the its Burnhams fault that Circle cant run an A&E department line.

    Contract signed November 2011 ripped up January 2015 after disastorous CQC report requires the hospital to go into special measures.

    PMQs should be fun
    Oh big John? ...... I was trying to spare your feelings.

    2011 is irrelevant. You and those just like you really really don't get contracting principles and short listing do you? (Which I might add occurred prior to the 2010 election as you well know).

    Andy Burnham. Labour Minister of health... the only minister ever to have privatised an NHS hospital.

    (Please note I again did not mention NHS Wales, Stafford or ............

    "weaponisation" of anything)

    ;-)


  • Socrates
    Socrates Posts: 10,322
    edited January 2015
    Scott Walker's looking pretty good for GOP nominee about now. Mike Pence also.
  • DavidL
    DavidL Posts: 55,867
    philiph said:

    Evan Davies (e or no e??) was not happy showing the cover on Newsnight just now.

    Evan never looks short of an "e" to me.
  • chestnut
    chestnut Posts: 7,341
    ashley said:

    ashcroft is the outlier. populus is in line with trend, albeit with Labour at the top end of MoE.

    ashcroft's polling is all over the place generally, and quite opaque - no-one even seems sure who does his polling for him.

    The only difference in today's Ashcroft to the previous 6 lies in the LD-Lab numbers in Wales/SW and the Midlands.

    Endlessly criticising the NHS when Labour run it in Wales may well have that effect.
  • nigel4england
    nigel4england Posts: 4,800
    bigjohnowls said:

    felix said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    felix said:

    Pong said:

    GeoffM said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    My night out in Birmingham survived without a single Fatwa despite us all being non muslims

    Yes, instead you worship the NHS which is another religion that kills people.
    Seriously?

    You think the NHS kills people?
    StaffordStaffordStaffordStaffordStafford ..... got it????
    Hinchinbrooke much more topical on the soil yourself front.

    In fact its the only inadequate hospital currently according to CQC.
    Thanks to five years of sound govt.
    Why is the care at the only hospital not run by the public sector the worst in the country do you think.

    Coincidence?
    You really are pathetic, I hate tribal politics and you are one of the worst culprits.
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Speedy Yougov is about midway between Ashcroft and populus
  • weejonnie
    weejonnie Posts: 3,820
    nigel4england said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    felix said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    felix said:

    Pong said:

    GeoffM said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    My night out in Birmingham survived without a single Fatwa despite us all being non muslims

    Yes, instead you worship the NHS which is another religion that kills people.
    Seriously?

    You think the NHS kills people?
    StaffordStaffordStaffordStaffordStafford ..... got it????
    Hinchinbrooke much more topical on the soil yourself front.

    In fact its the only inadequate hospital currently according to CQC.
    Thanks to five years of sound govt.
    Why is the care at the only hospital not run by the public sector the worst in the country do you think.

    Coincidence?
    You really are pathetic, I hate tribal politics and you are one of the worst culprits.
    Because it was such a basket case back in 2009 that no NHS trust was willing to take it on.
  • Smarmeron
    Smarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @nigel4england
    Award yourself 2,000 internetz of the realm!
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    NickPalmer said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    OT David Cameron wants to ban multiplying large prime numbers, or something.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/news/whatsapp-and-snapchat-could-be-banned-under-new-surveillance-plans-9973035.html



    Cameron miraculously energises the youth vote...
    You can make a flier titled "Tories want to ban social media", though that might be slightly misleading since they want to ban only a part of them.
  • edmundintokyo
    edmundintokyo Posts: 17,735
    NickPalmer said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    OT David Cameron wants to ban multiplying large prime numbers, or something.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/news/whatsapp-and-snapchat-could-be-banned-under-new-surveillance-plans-9973035.html



    Cameron miraculously energises the youth vote...
    Never mind the youth vote, at this rate he's going to lose the _bankers_.
  • Socrates
    Socrates Posts: 10,322
    UKIP on almost three times the Lib Dem numbers with YouGov. Surely they should be included in the second debate?
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    edited January 2015
    Socrates Romney is now looking like running, and probably informed Ryan which is why he is out. With Romney, Christie, Bush, Cruz, Paul and Huckabee all looking potential candidates there may not be much room for Scott Walker and Mike Pence
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    HYUFD said:

    Speedy Yougov is about midway between Ashcroft and populus

    Which is why I say that a polling average is much more accurate than any individual poll, in that it smooths outliers.
  • Smarmeron
    Smarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Speedy
    Unfortunately David wants to spy on the other part.
  • ashley
    ashley Posts: 19
    nigel4england said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    felix said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    felix said:

    Pong said:

    GeoffM said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    My night out in Birmingham survived without a single Fatwa despite us all being non muslims

    Yes, instead you worship the NHS which is another religion that kills people.
    Seriously?

    You think the NHS kills people?
    StaffordStaffordStaffordStaffordStafford ..... got it????
    Hinchinbrooke much more topical on the soil yourself front.

    In fact its the only inadequate hospital currently according to CQC.
    Thanks to five years of sound govt.
    Why is the care at the only hospital not run by the public sector the worst in the country do you think.

    Coincidence?
    You really are pathetic, I hate tribal politics and you are one of the worst culprits.
    Like it or not, Cameron's Tories have made a pigs ear of running the NHS.

    They always do, because deep down they just don't like it.

    Using a huge top-down reorganisation to flog massive chunks of it to Tory donors for self-serving ideological reasons was their biggest mistake.
  • weejonnie
    weejonnie Posts: 3,820
    NickPalmer said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    OT David Cameron wants to ban multiplying large prime numbers, or something.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/news/whatsapp-and-snapchat-could-be-banned-under-new-surveillance-plans-9973035.html



    Cameron miraculously energises the youth vote...
    Multiplying large prime numbers is as easy as pi. Working out which two prime numbers have been multiplied together is b*****y difficult. And that is the methodology of the RSA encryption method. (NB If Riemann's hypothesis is proved then there may be a way to quickly factorise numbers - and the algorithm is particularly susceptible in theory to quantum computing technology)
  • TCPoliticalBetting
    TCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    Socrates said:

    UKIP on almost three times the Lib Dem numbers with YouGov. Surely they should be included in the second debate?

    All this 30 - 40 LD MPs looks like wishful thinking. 14 weeks to save the Lib Dems before postal votes?
  • Artist
    Artist Posts: 1,893
    edited January 2015
    "UKIP on almost three times the Lib Dem numbers with YouGov. Surely they should be included in the second debate?"



    Farage has been very reasonable accepting a place in just one.

    UKIP are probably the most eager for the debates to go ahead though, so don't want to give Cameron another excuse.
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    @faisalislam: Oil at 5.5 year low, Brent crude oil in the $30s per barrel. So less than a third of Scottish Govt independence... http://t.co/zRjw2ueuF8
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    HYUFD said:

    Socrates Romney is now looking like running, and probably informed Ryan which is why he is out. With Romney, Christie, Bush, Cruz, Paul and Huckabee all looking potential candidates there may not be much room for Scott Walker and Mike Pence

    Oh no.
    All Americans will scream if they hear from Mitt Romney again.

    Although that might be a strategy by Bush to make himself look more like a human being by sitting next to Romney.
    Anyway no difference for President Hillary, it just might make it easier since both Bush and Romney will destroy each other.
  • Smarmeron
    Smarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @ashley
    It wasn't so much a mistake, as a gamble that failed to come off.
    Usually after you come out of a recession, things tend to get a lot better fast.
    This would have left Dave in an unassailable position, popular and with, wodges of cash to damp down the fires of discontent.
    You win some, you lose some
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Speedy Agree on that
  • GIN1138
    GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    edited January 2015
    ashley said:

    nigel4england said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    felix said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    felix said:

    Pong said:

    GeoffM said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    My night out in Birmingham survived without a single Fatwa despite us all being non muslims

    Yes, instead you worship the NHS which is another religion that kills people.
    Seriously?

    You think the NHS kills people?
    StaffordStaffordStaffordStaffordStafford ..... got it????
    Hinchinbrooke much more topical on the soil yourself front.

    In fact its the only inadequate hospital currently according to CQC.
    Thanks to five years of sound govt.
    Why is the care at the only hospital not run by the public sector the worst in the country do you think.

    Coincidence?
    You really are pathetic, I hate tribal politics and you are one of the worst culprits.
    Like it or not, Cameron's Tories have made a pigs ear of running the NHS.

    They always do, because deep down they just don't like it.

    Using a huge top-down reorganisation to flog massive chunks of it to Tory donors for self-serving ideological reasons was their biggest mistake.
    Clearly the NHS is Labour's strongest (only) position going into the election, but it's very obvious they are going to over-reach themselves and blow it.

    By the end of the election campaign everyone will be sick of hearing about the NHS from Labour - Like The Tories "save the pound" election in 2001...
  • Artist
    Artist Posts: 1,893
    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    Socrates said:

    UKIP on almost three times the Lib Dem numbers with YouGov. Surely they should be included in the second debate?

    All this 30 - 40 LD MPs looks like wishful thinking. 14 weeks to save the Lib Dems before postal votes?

    If Ashcroft's marginals polling is right, the Lib Dems should start to rise when people start thinking about their particular constituency rather than nationally.
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    edited January 2015
    Speedy Indeed, Romney is now said to want to run to the right of Bush, so he would be the conservative, then moderate, then conservative again candidate
    http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/romney-moves-to-reassemble-campaign-apparatus-for-2016/2015/01/12/d968592e-9a88-11e4-96cc-e858eba91ced_story.html
  • Flightpath
    Flightpath Posts: 4,012
    felix said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    felix said:

    Pong said:

    GeoffM said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    My night out in Birmingham survived without a single Fatwa despite us all being non muslims

    Yes, instead you worship the NHS which is another religion that kills people.
    Seriously?

    You think the NHS kills people?
    StaffordStaffordStaffordStaffordStafford ..... got it????
    Hinchinbrooke much more topical on the soil yourself front.

    In fact its the only inadequate hospital currently according to CQC.
    Thanks to five years of sound govt.
    Burnham put the contract to run Hichingbrooke out to tender in 2009 when its financial failures were so bad that it was threatened with closure.
    When Circle took over, it had debts of £40million, rising by £10million annually with spending of £330,000 a month on locums.
    It was a failing hospital under the NHS.
    Under Circle, Hinchingbrooke had been one of the few hospitals to hit the A&E target of 95 per cent of patients treated within four hours
    It received an award in May for being the best trust in England for quality of care, by data monitoring firm CHKS.
    It has also performed consistently well in the ‘friends and family test’
    The local Clinical Commissioning Group slashed its budget by 6 per cent last year
    At least one of the 35 inspectors is a member of campaign group Keep Our NHS Public
    The local Labour PPC is a doctor there.

    I am afraid the cynic in me is 'beginning to smell a big fat commie rat'.
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    Socrates said:

    UKIP on almost three times the Lib Dem numbers with YouGov. Surely they should be included in the second debate?

    All this 30 - 40 LD MPs looks like wishful thinking. 14 weeks to save the Lib Dems before postal votes?
    You forget that the 40 LD MP's premise is based on them losing no seats in scotland.
  • nigel4england
    nigel4england Posts: 4,800
    ashley said:

    nigel4england said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    felix said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    felix said:

    Pong said:

    GeoffM said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    My night out in Birmingham survived without a single Fatwa despite us all being non muslims

    Yes, instead you worship the NHS which is another religion that kills people.
    Seriously?

    You think the NHS kills people?
    StaffordStaffordStaffordStaffordStafford ..... got it????
    Hinchinbrooke much more topical on the soil yourself front.

    In fact its the only inadequate hospital currently according to CQC.
    Thanks to five years of sound govt.
    Why is the care at the only hospital not run by the public sector the worst in the country do you think.

    Coincidence?
    You really are pathetic, I hate tribal politics and you are one of the worst culprits.
    Like it or not, Cameron's Tories have made a pigs ear of running the NHS.

    They always do, because deep down they just don't like it.

    Using a huge top-down reorganisation to flog massive chunks of it to Tory donors for self-serving ideological reasons was their biggest mistake.
    I'm not a Tory so have no need to defend them, but the constant criticism by BJO is pathetic. Labour and Burnham had the Stafford disgrace on their watch, he was the first Health Minister to privatize a hospital and their current record in Wales is truly shocking.

  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    Continuing to follow the path set out by Ed Miliband risks adding £170 billion to the national debt by 2030, leaving little room for the government to offer emergency help if there is another crisis, according to Paul Johnson, director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies.

    Labour’s plan, in contrast, would mean more borrowing and more risk in the long term, meaning that it could be years before public finances are robust enough to cope with the impact of another economic emergency.
    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4321633.ece
  • Flightpath
    Flightpath Posts: 4,012
    HYUFD said:

    Speedy Indeed, Romney is now said to want to run to the right of Bush, so he would be the conservative, then moderate, then conservative again candidate
    http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/romney-moves-to-reassemble-campaign-apparatus-for-2016/2015/01/12/d968592e-9a88-11e4-96cc-e858eba91ced_story.html

    Its called the 'Carswell Strategy'. (anyone want to draw a cartoon?)
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Interesting article on the potential Bush Romney clash here
    http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/for-jeb-bush-and-mitt-romney-a-history-of-ambition-fuels-a-possible-2016-collision/2015/01/10/255bfbaa-98f0-11e4-927a-4fa2638cd1b0_story.html
  • chestnut
    chestnut Posts: 7,341
    The LDs will finish with 25-30.
  • Smarmeron
    Smarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Flightpath
    "The local Clinical Commissioning Group slashed its budget by 6 per cent last year"
    Yay for local commissioning group.
    They are there to improve the service are they not?
  • TCPoliticalBetting
    TCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    Speedy said:

    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    Socrates said:

    UKIP on almost three times the Lib Dem numbers with YouGov. Surely they should be included in the second debate?

    All this 30 - 40 LD MPs looks like wishful thinking. 14 weeks to save the Lib Dems before postal votes?
    You forget that the 40 LD MP's premise is based on them losing no seats in scotland.
    Are you kidding? That will be the biggest loss of any region!
  • Flightpath
    Flightpath Posts: 4,012
    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    Socrates said:

    UKIP on almost three times the Lib Dem numbers with YouGov. Surely they should be included in the second debate?

    All this 30 - 40 LD MPs looks like wishful thinking. 14 weeks to save the Lib Dems before postal votes?
    You have just made a good point there. Not about the LDs - although that may be good.
    But about postal votes.
    How can people complain about a long election campaign when voting starts in just 14 weeks time. It makes another case for getting the debates out of the way early. After the budget.
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    edited January 2015
    HYUFD said:

    Speedy Indeed, Romney is now said to want to run to the right of Bush, so he would be the conservative, then moderate, then conservative again candidate
    http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/romney-moves-to-reassemble-campaign-apparatus-for-2016/2015/01/12/d968592e-9a88-11e4-96cc-e858eba91ced_story.html

    The weather vane.
    Does he not understand that if he runs for president for a third time having failed miserably in the previous two, that he will ruin his modest political legacy?
    This time he will be facing a bunch of heavyweight governors and senators not some complete unknowns and hasbeens, he will be facing Bush, Huckabee, Paul, Christie, Rubio and God knows else, not Santorum, Gingrich, Bachmann, Cain ect.

    He had an enormous problem winning the nomination in 2012, lost the general election to a weak relatively unpopular guy with a weak economy, and he thinks he can do better in 2016 against Hillary with a booming economy?
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    edited January 2015
    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    Speedy said:

    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    Socrates said:

    UKIP on almost three times the Lib Dem numbers with YouGov. Surely they should be included in the second debate?

    All this 30 - 40 LD MPs looks like wishful thinking. 14 weeks to save the Lib Dems before postal votes?
    You forget that the 40 LD MP's premise is based on them losing no seats in scotland.
    Are you kidding? That will be the biggest loss of any region!
    I know, but that's what libdemvoice thought.
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    The price of Brent Crude has dropped by almost 6% today:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
  • Flightpath
    Flightpath Posts: 4,012
    ashley said:

    nigel4england said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    felix said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    felix said:

    Pong said:

    GeoffM said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    My night out in Birmingham survived without a single Fatwa despite us all being non muslims

    Yes, instead you worship the NHS which is another religion that kills people.
    Seriously?

    You think the NHS kills people?
    StaffordStaffordStaffordStaffordStafford ..... got it????
    Hinchinbrooke much more topical on the soil yourself front.

    In fact its the only inadequate hospital currently according to CQC.
    Thanks to five years of sound govt.
    Why is the care at the only hospital not run by the public sector the worst in the country do you think.

    Coincidence?
    You really are pathetic, I hate tribal politics and you are one of the worst culprits.
    Like it or not, Cameron's Tories have made a pigs ear of running the NHS.

    They always do, because deep down they just don't like it.

    Using a huge top-down reorganisation to flog massive chunks of it to Tory donors for self-serving ideological reasons was their biggest mistake.
    Have you just deployed your 20mm weapon or the 120mm. It hardly looked laser guided.
    The real weapon of mass destruction was in the labour party 2010 manifesto which pledged more privatisation for the NHS and £20 billion of savings within a budget that was not going to increase. Labour said in their manifesto that the NHS was now in receipt of sufficient money.

    Miliband had better be careful he is not firing blanks.
  • compouter2
    compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    bigjohnowls said:

    Tonights YG EICIPM

    Sod Yougov.....It's all Lord Ashcroft or nothing.

  • Chris_A
    Chris_A Posts: 1,237
    One good NHS move today - restricting the drugs the Cancer Drugs Fund will fund - but it's still going to cost the taxpayer more for drugs of dubious benefit.
  • Smarmeron
    Smarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @AndyJS
    You wonder if it is a bit like a tsunami, people staring at the receding sea, while others are running like hell?
  • Chris_A
    Chris_A Posts: 1,237
    Flightpath said:


    The local Clinical Commissioning Group slashed its budget by 6 per cent last year
    At least one of the 35 inspectors is a member of campaign group Keep Our NHS Public
    The local Labour PPC is a doctor there.

    I am afraid the cynic in me is 'beginning to smell a big fat commie rat'.

    All acute trusts have had their budgets cut for emergency work if they exceed a certain level.

  • Moses_
    Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    nigel4england said:

    ashley said:

    nigel4england said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    felix said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    felix said:

    Pong said:

    GeoffM said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    My night out in Birmingham survived without a single Fatwa despite us all being non muslims

    Yes, instead you worship the NHS which is another religion that kills people.
    Seriously?

    You think the NHS kills people?
    StaffordStaffordStaffordStaffordStafford ..... got it????
    Hinchinbrooke much more topical on the soil yourself front.

    In fact its the only inadequate hospital currently according to CQC.
    Thanks to five years of sound govt.
    Why is the care at the only hospital not run by the public sector the worst in the country do you think.

    Coincidence?
    You really are pathetic, I hate tribal politics and you are one of the worst culprits.
    Like it or not, Cameron's Tories have made a pigs ear of running the NHS.

    They always do, because deep down they just don't like it.

    Using a huge top-down reorganisation to flog massive chunks of it to Tory donors for self-serving ideological reasons was their biggest mistake.
    I'm not a Tory so have no need to defend them, but the constant criticism by BJO is pathetic. Labour and Burnham had the Stafford disgrace on their watch, he was the first Health Minister to privatize a hospital and their current record in Wales is truly shocking.

    Like I said Big John just does not get or understand a contracting process, AB selected and approved the final three suppliers. All of which were private companies. Why did he select 3 private companies given his stance now?

    1) Did he know they were private companies and went ahead anyway and privatise
    or
    2) he was utterly incompetent and did not know they were private companies?

    In regard to any other hospital outside the public sector? What about the 1000's of other private hospitals up and down the land , AXA , BUPA Etc? We should be seeking that level of delivery for all. Sadly they are brainwashed into thinking there is no other option , arrangement , combination of delivery but the public sector and I'm afraid no end of pointing out the titanic holes in their arguments will make any difference.

    The NHS will not improve under Labour it has been simply weaponsised. Even Balls and Burnham cant agree what is to be spent. Burnham says spend and Balls says not. Confusion , chaos and no plan.


    It will be a replay of Wales. (and Stafford)
  • Flightpath
    Flightpath Posts: 4,012
    Smarmeron said:

    @Flightpath
    "The local Clinical Commissioning Group slashed its budget by 6 per cent last year"
    Yay for local commissioning group.
    They are there to improve the service are they not?

    'sniff sniff' Night Night.
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Flightpath I think you got it right then

    Speedy Not forgetting his classic 'I was an independent during Reagan Bush' line when running for governor in Massachusetts, followed by his 'I am severely conservative' in 2012 when trying to convince GOP primary voters. I agree with your comments, and I doubt his children will want to see their inheritance further eroded either. However, to be fair to him he is the only GOP contendor to have led Hillary in a recent national poll, albeit only by 1% with Quinnipiac. Nixon is the only postwar candidate to lose a US general election and then go on to win the presidency, but Hillary looks more like a Nixon comeback after 2008 than Mitt!
  • Smarmeron
    Smarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Moses_
    Leather chesterfields in the AE waiting room? How many would they need?
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    edited January 2015
    AndyJS said:

    The price of Brent Crude has dropped by almost 6% today:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/

    There is a 2 million barrel per day oversupply, until production and consumption closes that gap oil will continue to fall.
    And the US still recorded an increase in oil output recently, most of it extracted now at a loss, so many american oil companies will go bust soon if production doesn't fall by 1.5 million barrels per day by years end.

    I thought a few months ago that oil will fall to 40$ a barrel, seeing that american oil companies are willing to increase production even if they lose money, i'm revising my prediction to free (well almost free) oil per barrel (because storage costs will outway the sales price so they will start pleading for buyers at any price).

    In theory the price of oil can fall to almost 0$, however the price will fall until production collapses, and that is mostly determined now by how much cash oil companies have.
  • OblitusSumMe
    OblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    I do hope that Lord Ashcroft continues to fund opinion polls after the general election - his results to date have rarely failed to be interesting.
  • Chris_A
    Chris_A Posts: 1,237
    Moses_ said:



    In regard to any other hospital outside the public sector? What about the 1000's of other private hospitals up and down the land , AXA , BUPA Etc? We should be seeking that level of delivery for all. Sadly they are brainwashed into thinking there is no other option , arrangement , combination of delivery but the public sector and I'm afraid no end of pointing out the titanic holes in their arguments will make any difference.

    Moses takes off your blinkers which are blinding you into thinking, private sector good, public sector bad.

    What makes you think that it's all sweetness and light in the private sector. I'm sure none of us would be expecting care like this http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/healthnews/11043262/Safety-of-private-hospitals-questioned-as-report-reveals-hundreds-die-unexpectedly.html
  • TheWatcher
    TheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    ashley said:

    nigel4england said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    felix said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    felix said:

    Pong said:

    GeoffM said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    My night out in Birmingham survived without a single Fatwa despite us all being non muslims

    Yes, instead you worship the NHS which is another religion that kills people.
    Seriously?

    You think the NHS kills people?
    StaffordStaffordStaffordStaffordStafford ..... got it????
    Hinchinbrooke much more topical on the soil yourself front.

    In fact its the only inadequate hospital currently according to CQC.
    Thanks to five years of sound govt.
    Why is the care at the only hospital not run by the public sector the worst in the country do you think.

    Coincidence?
    You really are pathetic, I hate tribal politics and you are one of the worst culprits.
    Like it or not, Cameron's Tories have made a pigs ear of running the NHS.

    They always do, because deep down they just don't like it.

    Using a huge top-down reorganisation to flog massive chunks of it to Tory donors for self-serving ideological reasons was their biggest mistake.
    Which bits were flogged to donors?
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    edited January 2015
    HYUFD said:

    Flightpath I think you got it right then

    Speedy Not forgetting his classic 'I was an independent during Reagan Bush' line when running for governor in Massachusetts, followed by his 'I am severely conservative' in 2012 when trying to convince GOP primary voters. I agree with your comments, and I doubt his children will want to see their inheritance further eroded either. However, to be fair to him he is the only GOP contendor to have led Hillary in a recent national poll, albeit only by 1% with Quinnipiac. Nixon is the only postwar candidate to lose a US general election and then go on to win the presidency, but Hillary looks more like a Nixon comeback after 2008 than Mitt!

    It's over, Hillary will win 2016 by the biggest margin for an election since either 1988 or 1996.
    The GOP contest is of an interest only to see who will get the blame for losing in a landslide.

    Goodnight.
This discussion has been closed.

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