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Something to track over the next few weeks – politicalbetting.com

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  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,244

    Like Mandelson has suggested, Britain wants Ukraine to sign the deal and agree a ceasefire.

    It wants European peers to agree to ground troops, we are told to expect a few to announce their intentions this week.

    And it wants the U.S. to provide air and intelligence cover.

    It does *not* seem to agree with Macron’s call last night for a one month ceasefire, per briefings this morning, perhaps because a temporary arrangement doesn’t really commit anybody to anything substantive.
    Peter Mandelson’s Ukraine comments ‘not government policy’, minister says
    Ambassador to US rebuffed for saying Zelenskyy should give ‘unequivocal backing’ to Trump’s peace efforts
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/mar/03/peter-mandelson-ukraine-comments-not-government-policy-minister
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,183
    Leon said:

    Only cretins endure them
    British winters are useful for getting rid of pests and unwanted interlopers.

    Looks like it works very well in your case.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,196

    Posters who refer to “Mandelbrot” make themselves seem silly. Ditto “Usonian”. Worst of all is “Musky Baby”.

    I once got a post moderated for calling you Gardenwa*ker :lol:
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,613
    kinabalu said:

    Real patriots don't dodge British winters.
    Spending all that sterling on foreign holidays. We need to bring back the £50 limit. Best thing we could do for the UK economy, even Brexit-by-Sea towns - especially them.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,476
    Carnyx said:

    Spending all that sterling on foreign holidays. We need to bring back the £50 limit. Best thing we could do for the UK economy, even Brexit-by-Sea towns - especially them.
    Or we could try something really extreme. Like making them nicer places.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,613

    Or we could try something really extreme. Like making them nicer places.
    That's where the money comes from.

    #genius
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,031

    Agreed. And if it is Government policy then they are idiots. Trump cannot be trusted and we ned to stop relying on the US to solve things for us.
    All Trump will register is "Top Brit calls for Ukrainians to give up".

    Tw@.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,212

    Or we could try something really extreme. Like making them nicer places.
    Yes, but bigger policy changes than a lick of paint might be needed to revive the British seaside holiday.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,476
    Carnyx said:

    That's where the money comes from.

    #genius
    No. That’s a receipe for people doing staycations. Or booking #airbnbs wherever upsets the most locals.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,110

    Is Mandlebrot now within the power of Usonian Musky Baby? ;)

    To be frank, the people who make themselves look silly are the ones who endlessly complain about their linguistic likes and dislikes online...
    Yes, but as PB’s premier cringe-monger, you would say that.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,752

    Posters who refer to “Mandelbrot” make themselves seem silly. Ditto “Usonian”. Worst of all is “Musky Baby”.

    1st Amendment Rights.

    This site is hosted in the USA :smile: , and it is important to fill in potholes in the language.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,914
    CEREBRAL POST KLAXON

    I’ve been reading “Embers of War” (or listening mainly on Audible) - a monumental history of south east Asia (mainly Vietnam) from the early 20th century to the American war - ie the entire history of the French empire there, and its fall

    Despite the intense depth and dryness it manages to be fascinating. For multiple reasons


    One of them is the uncannily weird echo of the debate today. It’s all about Russia and China destabilising the world as desired by the west. The three major western powers are the USA, the UK, and France

    America is puissant and commanding yet capricious even nervous. Has to deal with isolationist voters

    Britain is a pivotal power despite being weak, and wary of American wilfulness. France is prideful but petulant and at times shockingly needy (Dien Ben Phu - I had no idea the French BEGGED America to help)

    France is resentful of the “commonwealth bloc”: UK plus Oz and NZ

    Vietnam ends up being partitioned…. At first….


  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,196
    Carnyx said:

    Spending all that sterling on foreign holidays. We need to bring back the £50 limit. Best thing we could do for the UK economy, even Brexit-by-Sea towns - especially them.
    Including Wick and Leven? :lol:
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,476

    Yes, but bigger policy changes than a lick of paint might be needed to revive the British seaside holiday.
    Drop nukes on them

    “The town is now a radioactive wasteland inhabited by malevolent zombie revenants. So property prices have tripled.”
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,110
    Nigelb said:

    Peter Mandelson’s Ukraine comments ‘not government policy’, minister says
    Ambassador to US rebuffed for saying Zelenskyy should give ‘unequivocal backing’ to Trump’s peace efforts
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/mar/03/peter-mandelson-ukraine-comments-not-government-policy-minister
    If you read the actual quotes it’s hardly a rebuff.

    I’m starting to fear that PB’s critical abilty is weaker than I’d thought.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,882

    Yes, but as PB’s premier cringe-monger, you would say that.
    I try my best. ;)
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,304
    Leon said:

    Only cretins endure them
    Adapt and relish, not endure. Swap lager for ye olde bitter, salads for hearty pies, flat for the jumps. cotton flimsies for the battered waxy Barbour and a proper cap. Nobody is really British if they recoil from all of this.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,752
    edited March 3
    Someone has been giving the Leeanderthal Man sartorial advice. It's quite smart.

    This was at at residents' meeting. I think it's his Reform Rally outfit. My photo quota.


  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,110
    Carnyx said:

    Spending all that sterling on foreign holidays. We need to bring back the £50 limit. Best thing we could do for the UK economy, even Brexit-by-Sea towns - especially them.
    Why are British seaside towns so shite when their (northern) French and indeed New England equivalents are not?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,031

    With all the doom and gloom around at the moment, thought it would be nice to share a good news story - well kind of.

    Sad for the death of the man but wow, what an amazing legacy.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/australian-man-whose-blood-donations-saved-2-4-million-babies-dies-aged-88/ar-AA1A8sJz

    Only negative is he may have single-handedly (single-armedly?) saved generations of babies who went on to become Australian fast bowlers...
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,110
    edited March 3

    Interesting thread. Is the financial crisis a red herring when looking at British economic problems since the late 2000s?

    https://x.com/kallumpickering/status/1896490714864972218

    We begin our analysis with a simple observation - that the decline in UK electricity availability, which started in 2006, coincided with the start of structural weakness in UK productivity growth

    Conversely, American growth in the last ten years or so appears to be strongly correlated with the discovery of abundant gas etc.

    The UK has the highest domestic energy prices in the developed world, an entrenched culture against capital investment, and planning policies that make development almost impossible.

    It also spent 2016 onwards putting tariffs on its main trading partner.

    We really need to stop asking why the British economy has been toileted.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 562

    Or we could try something really extreme. Like making them nicer places.
    Folkestone is making an effort. Shame about the bits they've missed though.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,031
    MattW said:

    Someone has been giving the Leeanderthal Man sartorial advice. Maybe.

    This was at at residents' meeting. I think it's his Reform Rally outfit. My photo quota.

    All public speakers, post-Zelinskyy, now have to wear their sartorial finest...
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,914
    TOPPING said:

    Poor you. While you were stuck in Bangkok traffic or fighting your way down the Bund we were enjoying this:


    If the British winter was always like that - crisp, dry, frosty, silvery - I might actually linger to enjoy it (ok I’d do a fortnight)

    But it isn’t, is it? It a a terrible dark dreary prison of chilly wet dankness, like some awful endless punishment for a crime you never committed
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,031

    Including Wick and Leven? :lol:
    No amount of trillions could save Withernsea...
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 562
    Leon said:

    CEREBRAL POST KLAXON

    I’ve been reading “Embers of War” (or listening mainly on Audible) - a monumental history of south east Asia (mainly Vietnam) from the early 20th century to the American war - ie the entire history of the French empire there, and its fall

    Despite the intense depth and dryness it manages to be fascinating. For multiple reasons


    One of them is the uncannily weird echo of the debate today. It’s all about Russia and China destabilising the world as desired by the west. The three major western powers are the USA, the UK, and France

    America is puissant and commanding yet capricious even nervous. Has to deal with isolationist voters

    Britain is a pivotal power despite being weak, and wary of American wilfulness. France is prideful but petulant and at times shockingly needy (Dien Ben Phu - I had no idea the French BEGGED America to help)

    France is resentful of the “commonwealth bloc”: UK plus Oz and NZ

    Vietnam ends up being partitioned…. At first….


    Vietnam not only took on the US, they also saw off China in 79. Not sure they can do anything about the South China Sea now though - but you never know.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,244
    .
    Leon said:

    CEREBRAL POST KLAXON

    I’ve been reading “Embers of War” (or listening mainly on Audible) - a monumental history of south east Asia (mainly Vietnam) from the early 20th century to the American war - ie the entire history of the French empire there, and its fall

    Despite the intense depth and dryness it manages to be fascinating. For multiple reasons


    One of them is the uncannily weird echo of the debate today. It’s all about Russia and China destabilising the world as desired by the west. The three major western powers are the USA, the UK, and France

    America is puissant and commanding yet capricious even nervous. Has to deal with isolationist voters

    Britain is a pivotal power despite being weak, and wary of American wilfulness. France is prideful but petulant and at times shockingly needy (Dien Ben Phu - I had no idea the French BEGGED America to help)

    France is resentful of the “commonwealth bloc”: UK plus Oz and NZ

    Vietnam ends up being partitioned…. At first….

    The amount of US aid France received to maintain what was fairly obviously an indefensible (in both moral and practical terms) colony after WWII is fairly breathtaking.

    Arguably their single biggest foreign policy mistake in the immediate postwar decade.

  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,914
    edited March 3

    Why are British seaside towns so shite when their (northern) French and indeed New England equivalents are not?
    Weather

    They used to be nice (go look at old photos of seaside resorts). Some of them were genuinely lovely

    But there’s nothing you can do about shite rainy British summers and as soon as the British realised they could fly quite cheaply to Benidorm (and then beyond) for guaranteed sun - and often cheaper - the middle classes and then all classes abandoned them

    Seaside resorts in.northern France suffer from the same weather (albeit somewhat better) but they benefit from superior French urbanism - the French don’t destroy historic town centres and they still support high street shops
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,556
    Leon said:

    If the British winter was always like that - crisp, dry, frosty, silvery - I might actually linger to enjoy it (ok I’d do a fortnight)

    But it isn’t, is it? It a a terrible dark dreary prison of chilly wet dankness, like some awful endless punishment for a crime you never committed
    Ah I see you weren't here this year. You missed a cracker. But I'm sure the pink gins at the Peace Hotel were divine.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,244
    edited March 3

    If you read the actual quotes it’s hardly a rebuff.

    I’m starting to fear that PB’s critical abilty is weaker than I’d thought.
    Nice try.
    The whole exercise was (at best) pretty pointless, intended or otherwise.

    As I said.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,914
    This is PERFECT

    Cloudless March sunshine. Definitely spring

    January and February SWERVED
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,976

    No, I should have been clearer: against former Warsaw Pact countries.

    Russia has gone seriously backwards. It’s simply a fascist, mafioso state at this point.
    Difficult to work out why Donald is so simpatico with it.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,110
    edited March 3
    Leon said:

    Weather

    They used to be nice (go look at old photos of seaside resorts). Some of them were genuinely lovely

    But there’s nothing you can do about shite rainy British summers and as soon as the British realised they could fly quite cheaply to Benidorm (and then beyond) for guaranteed sun - and often cheaper - the middle classes and then all classes abandoned them

    Seaside resorts in.northern France suffer from the same weather (albeit somewhat better) but they benefit from superior French urbanism - the French don’t destroy historic town centres and they still support high street shops
    Agree, but my point was to compare them with similarly inclement peers.

    Anyway, you’ve kind of answered the question which is simply that the UK munted most of its towns and cities with terrible development policies, and then, from Thatcher onwards, basically gave up investing at all.

    All of local government in the UK now is a disability care program with a council attached.

    God knows what this does to voter feelings of “agency”.

    It’s notable that even in tax-hating America, local townships are better maintained and even have services that have long been abandoned in the UK.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,556
    Leon said:

    This is PERFECT

    Cloudless March sunshine. Definitely spring

    January and February SWERVED

    Welcome home.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,261

    Interesting thread. Is the financial crisis a red herring when looking at British economic problems since the late 2000s?

    https://x.com/kallumpickering/status/1896490714864972218

    We begin our analysis with a simple observation - that the decline in UK electricity availability, which started in 2006, coincided with the start of structural weakness in UK productivity growth

    Our energy prices reflect global/European price developments, not relative supply and demand in the UK.
    Energy consumption has gone down because energy efficiency has gone up. LED light bulbs etc.
    Of course energy consumption and GDP per capita are positively correlated. That tells us nothing about causation.
    The rise in real energy prices predated the drop in productivity growth by four years.
    Apart from that, very convincing.
    This is pretty low grade analysis.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,244
    Note both the Tories and LibDems have solidly backed the government in Ukraine up until now.

    I seriously doubt that both Davey and Cleverly are criticising Mandelson just for some theoretical temporary political score.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,110
    edited March 3

    Our energy prices reflect global/European price developments, not relative supply and demand in the UK.
    Energy consumption has gone down because energy efficiency has gone up. LED light bulbs etc.
    Of course energy consumption and GDP per capita are positively correlated. That tells us nothing about causation.
    The rise in real energy prices predated the drop in productivity growth by four years.
    Apart from that, very convincing.
    This is pretty low grade analysis.
    Not so fast.
    Much of that late 2000s growth was a finance sector bubble.

    Then the tide went out and the abilty of the UK economy to pick up the slack elsewhere seemed permanently impaired.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,914
    kinabalu said:

    Adapt and relish, not endure. Swap lager for ye olde bitter, salads for hearty pies, flat for the jumps. cotton flimsies for the battered waxy Barbour and a proper cap. Nobody is really British if they recoil from all of this.
    No, British winters are shit and only hapless cowards stay and suffer them

    And let’s face it there is nothing MORE British than haring off around the world drinking gin and conquering bad snacks

    I’m the kind of Briton that forged the EMPIRE, if it had been left to effete types like you we’d have been conquered by Belgium
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,060

    Why are British seaside towns so shite when their (northern) French and indeed New England equivalents are not?
    Compalcency.

    Northern French resorts had to be good, becasue they were in competition with southern French resorts.

    British resorts could get away with being a bit rubbish because, for a long time, people couldn't go anywhere else. Then, all of a sudden, package holidays by plane were invented and the bottom fell out of the market. For a while, the thing to do was to milk the cash cow as it died, and then it did.

    So basically the same problem as every other aspect of British life.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,208

    NEW THREAD

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,556
    Talking of the theatre I'm pondering one show (1hr 45mins makes no mention of an interval) and it includes the following:

    "Trigger warnings: Explicit content, satire, gender stereotypes, body politics, and coarse language. Views expressed are not those of the creators."

    This is the world we live in now, artistically.

    Plus wtf does "Views expressed are not those of the creators" mean when it's at home.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 562
    Leon said:

    No, British winters are shit and only hapless cowards stay and suffer them

    And let’s face it there is nothing MORE British than haring off around the world drinking gin and conquering bad snacks

    I’m the kind of Briton that forged the EMPIRE, if it had been left to effete types like you we’d have been conquered by Belgium
    Come home. The war is over ...
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,348
    rcs1000 said:

    Some of the Mission Impossible movies have been decent: the first one with Rebecca Ferguson was excellent.
    anything with Rebecca Ferguson (my favourite Swede) in it is worth watching

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,304
    Leon said:

    No, British winters are shit and only hapless cowards stay and suffer them

    And let’s face it there is nothing MORE British than haring off around the world drinking gin and conquering bad snacks

    I’m the kind of Briton that forged the EMPIRE, if it had been left to effete types like you we’d have been conquered by Belgium
    One's country isn't pick and mix. It's a package deal. Good times, bad times, fair weather and foul. You love your country like a husband loves his wife who leaves her when she needs care.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,110
    edited March 3

    Compalcency.

    Northern French resorts had to be good, becasue they were in competition with southern French resorts.

    British resorts could get away with being a bit rubbish because, for a long time, people couldn't go anywhere else. Then, all of a sudden, package holidays by plane were invented and the bottom fell out of the market. For a while, the thing to do was to milk the cash cow as it died, and then it did.

    So basically the same problem as every other aspect of British life.
    I think much of British life is driven by the need of middle class people to distinguish themselves and get away from working class people.

    Britain is very crowded, and maybe has the largest percentage of “urban proletarian” population in the world.

    So businesses - and maybe even seaside resorts - have to pitch themselves either to a small upper middle class, but exclusivity is hard to maintain —- or to the ghastly mass market.

    Both demographics now have better options.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,244

    Our energy prices reflect global/European price developments, not relative supply and demand in the UK.
    Energy consumption has gone down because energy efficiency has gone up. LED light bulbs etc.
    Of course energy consumption and GDP per capita are positively correlated. That tells us nothing about causation.
    The rise in real energy prices predated the drop in productivity growth by four years.
    Apart from that, very convincing.
    This is pretty low grade analysis.
    It's correlation rather than causation.

    S Korea has seen a similar trend in unit prices, but a 50% increase in generation over a similar period.

    Did they just plan better, or was there simply more demand ?

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,476

    Agree, but my point was to compare them with similarly inclement peers.

    Anyway, you’ve kind of answered the question which is simply that the UK munted most of its towns and cities with terrible development policies, and then, from Thatcher onwards, basically gave up investing at all.

    All of local government in the UK now is a disability care program with a council attached.

    God knows what this does to voter feelings of “agency”.

    It’s notable that even in tax-hating America, local townships are better maintained and even have services that have long been abandoned in the UK.
    In the US, tax raising is localised. So a growing town and population means more tax to spend.

    Same in France.

    So the activist local Mayor model works. And the locals believe that more people = better, so are more likely to back development.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,304
    edited March 3

    Not so fast.
    Much of that late 2000s growth was a finance sector bubble.

    Then the tide went out and the abilty of the UK economy to pick up the slack elsewhere seemed permanently impaired.
    Yes but that supports the orthodox thesis this 'out of his box' leccy one from WG is challenging - that the GFC is the main root cause of our relative stagnation since. We had the biggest bubble hence suffered the biggest pop.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,838

    In the US, tax raising is localised. So a growing town and population means more tax to spend.

    Same in France.

    So the activist local Mayor model works. And the locals believe that more people = better, so are more likely to back development.
    The problem (in the US at least) is what happens when you get into a death spiral: people leave, meaning taxes need to rise and services are cut, therefore more people leave.

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,585
    ...

    All public speakers, post-Zelinskyy, now have to wear their sartorial finest...
    Surely 30p would be more comfortable in Adidas Samba and trackies.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,639
    FPT:
    Leon said:

    No, British winters are shit and only hapless cowards stay and suffer them

    And let’s face it there is nothing MORE British than haring off around the world drinking gin and conquering bad snacks

    I’m the kind of Briton that forged the EMPIRE, if it had been left to effete types like you we’d have been conquered by Belgium
    I've had a splendid winter. So many of those cold, clear days. Sunrises and moonrises and snow and starry skies.

    I'm certainly not the kind of Briton who'd have colonised India or the Caribbean. But I AM the kind of Briton who'd have colonised Canada.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,448

    I think much of British life is driven by the need of middle class people to distinguish themselves and get away from working class people.

    Britain is very crowded, and maybe has the largest percentage of “urban proletarian” population in the world.

    So businesses - and maybe even seaside resorts - have to pitch themselves either to a small upper middle class, but exclusivity is hard to maintain —- or to the ghastly mass market.

    Both demographics now have better options.

    It is patchy though. The Isle of Wight has rundown traditional resorts like Sandown, and parts of Ryde, but Bembridge and Yarmouth are more Chelsea on Sea, with a heavy Yachting presence too on the north coast, also very popular with dog owners. Ventnor has a beautiful setting with a mix of hipster gentrification and faded charity shops. There are tourist markets out there for British resorts.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,031

    ...

    Surely 30p would be more comfortable in Adidas Samba and trackies.
    Does he look comfortable in that gear?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,585

    Does he look comfortable in that gear?
    Isn't that the sort of uniform to identify with his voters? Wearing Anthony Sinclair isn't very RedWall.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,322

    Why are British seaside towns so shite when their (northern) French and indeed New England equivalents are not?
    Thats a great question. Certainly I would point a finger of blame at the weather and cheap foreign alternatives to the UK being one reason for the British resorts failure. But why not in France? The weather is probably more reliably good, but are there fewer French who favour a trip to the Algarve or Majorca?
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,463
    edited March 3

    Thats a great question. Certainly I would point a finger of blame at the weather and cheap foreign alternatives to the UK being one reason for the British resorts failure. But why not in France? The weather is probably more reliably good, but are there fewer French who favour a trip to the Algarve or Majorca?
    There’s another geographical factor affecting the channel coasts. Geology, currents and longshore drift are such that vast amounts of fine golden sand piled up along the French and Low Countries side, while all the sand was scoured away from the English coast from roughly Portsmouth Eastwards, topped off by Wealden and London clay filling many of the gaps with mud.

    Hence why British seasides get a lot more chichi from Sandbanks westwards, and likewise West from Cromer on the Norfolk coast. Posh coasts are easier with nice sand.
This discussion has been closed.