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Something to track over the next few weeks – politicalbetting.com
Something to track over the next few weeks – politicalbetting.com
People don’t usually vote on foreign policy issues but wonder if Starmer’s sure-footed work at the centre of the international stage this week may start to shift public opinion towards him https://t.co/RczCMJMXqk
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None of which will be positive for people.
I’d be amazed if Starmers, so far, sterling perfomance on the world stage can translate to much in moving the dial when up and down the country people face a cost of living crisis.
Let's see if it dents Reform polling
I wait in anticipation for the next US opinion polls.
He’s there to follow government policy and not make up his own .
‘How to leave your abusive international warplane supplying partner and start a new life’
https://x.com/hush_kit/status/1896323281252409368?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
Ukraine does have a Prime Minister I believe. Is Rubio blaming someone not at the meeting for the way the meeting turned out?
Look I know Schumer changed the dress code but letting someone in the senate chamber dressed like this really crosses the line.
https://x.com/JDVance/status/1704905884173037620
A bit like @williamglenn without the redeeming wit.
Whatever one's view on Zelensky and his sartorial elegance or lack thereof, complaining about it is a piss poor put down.
Simply, if the US is doing well, the Sitting Vice President will be the next presidential candidate.
And if it is not, a change at the top is unlikely to benefit the incumbent sufficiently.
I would suggest there should be no more than 0.4-0.6 between the two prices.
This to me suggests they think Brexit is still a winning issue. I do not.
(note that Scotland has about 35% of households in flats, versus 20% in England. You'd want to copy whatever they do in Spain (60%) or Germany (50%).)
Apologies to any economists for the early morning shock.
The Trump administration may exclude government spending from GDP, obscuring the impact of DOGE cuts
https://apnews.com/article/trump-gdp-economy-government-spending-lutnick-7414ba1bd441bd4bf64620bfd66923b2
With a divided FPTP set up, and Reform the only one after that slice of the vote, it could be a win for them rather than a negative.
The problem with Trumpism is it's like a mass Jedi mind trick. With a wave of his hand Trump can get people to repeat all sorts of nonsense they don't really believe, but it only works on the weak minded.
Its use is definitely a signifier of low wattage sock puppets like the Lab assistant under minister on R4 just now, so I suppose it has its uses.
Uh oh, he’s just done a ‘war fighting’.
As for Starmer, Foreign Affairs don't really help him. Indeed the best thing for his government is to fold the conflict and unclog the global economy. But looking the part helps. And having an obvious question to answer (rather than having to define the question for himself) probably plays to his strengths.
@Simon_Nixon
Europeans underestimated the degree to which an Ukraine surrender is central to both Trump’s economic and foreign policy. That makes their attempt to frustrate his goals with their own peace plan even higher risk.
https://x.com/Simon_Nixon/status/1896470145293590870
It also works on the greedy (whether that greed is for money, power or glory) and dishonest.
One of the things about doublethink is how much processing power it requires.
Out in the field...
https://x.com/ArmandDoma/status/1896293021798515006
Foreigners have to pay 20 USD per Trump Dollar before the USD is discontinued.
"Behold, I have cut the price of eggs to five dollars a dozen!"
Their own country will suffer similar damage from the destruction of medical research, Trump's cabal's assault on the checks and balances in the democratic system, and the rest. When national Government expenditure is cut by 30% without any effort to identify what is actually worthwhile, supervised by a collection of expertise-free yes-men, then it is hell-in-a-handcart territory.
In the most recent fiscal year (from October 2023 to September 2024) the US federal government spent $6.75 trillion (£5.3 trillion) according to the US Treasury, external.
This means Musk’s proposed cuts of $2 trillion would represent around a cut of around 30% of total federal government spending — also known as national spending in other countries.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdj38mekdkgo
AFAICS the only hopes of stopping the process are those Courts which are not suborned, civil society, and Trump voters when the impact hits them.
Think Winston Smith in 1984, substituting one made-up number for another.
Truman was of course re elected against the odds in 1948
Have the odd independent or art house win by all means but don't ignore films viewers watch or Oscars ratings will decline yet further
The problem that still exists will be how to manage such developments after occupation - expertise has to come from somewhere, and:
1 - Up front payments (ie commuted sums) are a major source of future maintenance money money for local authorities.
2 - If leasehold is abolished prices may rise because it is a source of revenue for some developer companies - either the payments, or selling the leases on.
3 - How to set up a structure that works equally well in both Cobham, Clerkenwell and Clacton.
Behind this is that the people buying the new properties are expected to pay for the cost of all the infrastructure, through increased new prices - rather than it being rolled into Council tax.
I think that developers may quite like to be out of this cycle; it would let them walk away cleanly after building and selling the properties.
Making it all add up is the question.
Whether they increase US manufacturing jobs or increase cost of living likely decide whether Vance wins or not.
The omens aren't great, last time a Republican President signed such huge tariffs was Hoover in 1930 and the Democrats won Congress and the White House in 1932. The Republicans didn't win a presidential election again until Eisenhower in 1952
@LukeTryl
Meanwhile Starmer’s net approval is up from -39 to -28 this weekend. Still under water but his best score since November. Those saying he’s doing a good job are up 5 and bad job down 6.
https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1896470872963350871
I think it is much less than a 54% chance.
As promoted in the greatest political speech ever -
https://youtu.be/XEECxN5P1nw?si=I_z42twRz9uc_gxg
I switched a big chunk of my ISA into Rolls Royce and BAE just before Starmer announced the increase in UK defence spending.
They are now nearly 25% up.
That's a relief.
(I also like Air Forces Monthly...)
However, there are a large number of Magic Moneytree types who seem to think that maintenance on communal structures should be zero cost. Or not exist.
In my former block of flats they now have two such on the board that runs the flats jointly (all freehold).
They started by demanding that it be wound up and all the money in the accounts given to the home owners. They’ve retreated to allowing the roof to be inspected and repaired on a regular cycle
But the idea of building up a reserve which is then use to pay for works on a regular basis is beyond them.
“Look, when we need to fix something, we wait until it is really needed, then take out a loan….”
All three of his choices were oversubscribed to some degree, one heavily. The odds were that he would get in to his first choice, but it was not guaranteed.
I'll start really worrying when he's seen with the Football.
This is beyond outrageous. Elon Musk, his cranky mother Maye, and one of his young kids were chauffeured in Air Force One and Marine One—straight to the White House, where they’re apparently staying.
WTF is going on? It goes without saying, this is not normal.
https://x.com/ChrisDJackson/status/1896393185833947335
Thin skin.
What was the Dylan movie like ?
Voters wanted Churchill to win the war and Attlee to deliver the NHS and expanded welfare state in the peace. They never wanted to appease Hitler nor do they want to appease Putin.
The list of best picture winners since 2000 is a very mixed bag indeed. Not the best adver for a quarter of century of cinema I'd suggest.
https://www.imdb.com/list/ls528801948/
Compare with the 70's:
1970 Patton
1971 The French Connection
1972 The Godfather
1973 The Sting
1974 The Godfather II
1975 One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest
1976 Rocky
1977 Annie Hall
1978 The Deer Hunter
1979 Kramer v Kramer
That take away coffee should be 1p, that housing should be free etc etc.
This is from the Corbynite left. But I agree with you that there is an interesting parallel with the mentality behind DOGE.
Or did he only do that for Rishi?
*I know the Harriers were old and wouldn't have worked today