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A Letter To The New German Chancellor – politicalbetting.com

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  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,347
    edited February 27
    tlg86 said:

    Isn't that effectively what happens (and more when you consider social health savings when smokers die relatively early)?
    I don't know how the overall net ledger works out. Poor health cost to the economy and the NHS vs Taxes received from the activity + earlier death so less late life health burden.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,504

    Funny thing is that American telecomms companies have been subject to similar laws – for backdoors with secret compliance (like superinjunctions, I guess) – for decades. I've seen one American CEO sit in silence when asked at a shareholders' meeting because it would have been illegal for him to confirm, deny or even acknowledge the possibility. As someone (you?) noted above, this led to infestation by Russian and Chinese spies.
    That’s one reason for Apple’s stance on this.

    The Greek telephone system hack should have been a wake up call.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,305
    HYUFD said:

    Given Cleverly opposed the cuts to overseas aid to fund defence, a position that puts him left of Starmer let alone Farage, the idea Tory MPs would move him from third to first is for the birds, let alone that Tory members would vote for him.

    As I said before he is going for London Mayor, where his more Cameroon/LD positioning will better place him

    https://x.com/JamesCleverly/status/1894661350321778715
    Well, perhaps, and I think London politics could get more interesting in the next couple of years. Recent by election results haven't been good for Labour but the locals aren't until 2026 and that's an eternity away.

    The other big question is what will Sadiq Khan do? IF he decides not to run again and goes for a London constituency (East Ham perhaps on the retirement of Stephen Timms?), Labour will have to find a new candidate and while that may help offset the anti-Sadiq vote, it will still be interesting to see who might be in the runners and riders (Newham Mayor Rokhsana Fiaz?).

    The Conservatives will be hoping to avoid the disaster of the last primary - might ex-MP Paul Scully be tempted to have another go?

    That's even before we consider other parties and the fact the Mayoral election isn't until 2028 which might conceivably be General Election day.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,274
    Wildly O/t..... probably. This has turned up in my inbox.

    You have been selected to join the great Illuminati to be a member of this family; You have found favor in the eyes of the Great Creator and hence this noble invitation to be a member of the Elite Family.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,347

    Wildly O/t..... probably. This has turned up in my inbox.

    You have been selected to join the great Illuminati to be a member of this family; You have found favor in the eyes of the Great Creator and hence this noble invitation to be a member of the Elite Family.

    Well talk about your lucky day.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,274
    kinabalu said:

    Well talk about your lucky day.
    You never know. I wonder if HYUFD might be interested
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,787
    ...
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,422
    kinabalu said:

    I don't know how the overall net ledger works out. Poor health cost to the economy and the NHS vs Taxes received from the activity + earlier death so less late life health burden.
    What we know for sure is that inbreeding isn't taxed.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,986
    tlg86 said:

    What we know for sure is that inbreeding isn't taxed.
    C'mon, Chaz & Wills pay some tax, EVEN THOUGH THEY'RE NOT OBLIGED TO!
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,301
    The people who maintain the Wikipedia UK opinion polling charts have changed the trend smoothing options. The main chart now looks quite different.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,680
    Has Matt Goodwin decided to be the next leader of Reform and ultimately PM, or is he sticking to making a name and career out of rabble rousing populist simple answers to complex problems? Or both. It isn't neither.

    https://www.mattgoodwin.org/p/i-want-my-country-back-my-latest?utm_campaign=email-half-post&r=1mnpci&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,322

    Wildly O/t..... probably. This has turned up in my inbox.

    You have been selected to join the great Illuminati to be a member of this family; You have found favor in the eyes of the Great Creator and hence this noble invitation to be a member of the Elite Family.

    I don't suppose by any chance they want anything in return?
  • Leon said:

    Apple did almost exactly that in Russia, in 2022


    In 2022, Apple withdrew from Russia abruptly and thoroughly in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February of that year. The company took a series of decisive actions that effectively cut off its operations in the country:

    1. Immediate Halt of Product Sales

    On March 1, 2022, Apple announced that it had stopped selling all its products in Russia, including iPhones, iPads, Macs, and other devices. Russian customers were no longer able to order Apple products from the official Apple online store, and shipments to Russian retailers were suspended.

    2. Restrictions on Apple Pay and Financial Services

    Apple disabled Apple Pay in Russia, making it difficult for Russian users to make payments via their Apple devices. Several Russian banks were also removed from Apple Pay, aligning with Western sanctions that targeted Russia’s financial sector.

    3. Removal of RT and Sputnik from the App Store

    Apple removed Russian state-controlled media outlets, RT (Russia Today) and Sputnik, from its App Store globally to limit the spread of Kremlin-backed propaganda.

    4. Disabling Key Features in Russia

    Apple disabled traffic and live incident reports in Apple Maps in Ukraine and Russia to protect civilians from military movements and avoid potential misuse.

    5. Suspension of Advertising and Services

    Apple paused advertising on the App Store in Russia, affecting developers who relied on Apple’s ad services for revenue. Subscription-based Apple services like Apple News were also cut off.

    6. iCloud and Software Restrictions

    While some existing Apple devices in Russia continued to work, Apple restricted new software updates and services for users in Russia. Developers also found it far more difficult to distribute apps and services in the Russian market.

    7. Corporate and Retail Exit

    Apple closed its physical offices and corporate operations in Russia, effectively cutting ties with the country’s market. Employees in Russia were relocated or let go.

    Impact and Russian Response:

    Apple’s withdrawal made iPhones and other Apple products scarce in Russia, leading to a resale boom and gray-market imports from third-party countries like Turkey and Kazakhstan.

    Many Russian users switched to Android as Apple services became inaccessible.

    The Russian government pushed for homegrown alternatives, like promoting its own smartphone operating systems and digital payment solutions.

    Apple’s withdrawal was one of the most comprehensive exits in history by a major Western tech company, and unlike some firms that found ways to stay indirectly, Apple has never returned to the Russian market.

    Apple has just promised to invest hundreds of millions of dollars in Indonesia because the iPhone 16 had been shut out of the country's market for not having have enough components manufactured locally:

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-02-27/indonesia-to-lift-iphone-16-ban-as-apple-secures-agreement/104855174

    It once threatened to pull out of the UK market over a patent dispute, but didn't:

    https://appleinsider.com/articles/21/07/11/apple-attorneys-threaten-uk-market-exit-if-court-orders-unacceptable-patent-fees

    Apple makes a shedload of money in the UK. Not just through phone sales but also because of the kickback it gets from the apps it hosts.

    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2025/jan/13/apple-uk-app-store-class-action-fee-competition-appeal-tribunal


    :





  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,771
    edited February 27
    algarkirk said:

    Has Matt Goodwin decided to be the next leader of Reform and ultimately PM, or is he sticking to making a name and career out of rabble rousing populist simple answers to complex problems? Or both. It isn't neither.

    https://www.mattgoodwin.org/p/i-want-my-country-back-my-latest?utm_campaign=email-half-post&r=1mnpci&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

    I thought he was in the tank for Reform, and the The Reform Youtube channel GB-News.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,656
    edited February 27
    algarkirk said:

    Has Matt Goodwin decided to be the next leader of Reform and ultimately PM, or is he sticking to making a name and career out of rabble rousing populist simple answers to complex problems? Or both. It isn't neither.

    https://www.mattgoodwin.org/p/i-want-my-country-back-my-latest?utm_campaign=email-half-post&r=1mnpci&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

    Who is he writing for that he needs to specify that Cornwall is in England? He also uses American-style dashes (albeit with one stray, British-style space).

    Goodwin would have more of a point if he just attacked centrist politicians but his references to a big-P Project make him sound a deranged conspiracy theorist. He could also do with some speaking lessons to vary his monotone.

    ETA and ‘if you invited an architect into your home...’ lacks the Faragesque common touch. Who the flip has architects remodelling their home?
  • A really good thread analysing Conservative to Lib Dem voters from GE:

    They are small in number, many more to Reform.
    They are larger in number in Lib Dem constituencies, unsurprisingly.
    They mostly voted for Brexit.
    They hold 'Conservative' opinions - death penalty, lower immigration, tougher sentences, pro Brexit (but lighter), conservative values on culture wars.
    Stopped voting Conservatives due to lack of competency.

    Why did they vote Lib Dem? It's just a protest vote really.

    https://x.com/jamesbreckwoldt/status/1895053160567198074
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    Terrible year for moths as well. And moths do much of the heavy lifting on pollination. Not that they get much credit. It's always bloody bees this, bees that...

    (They travel further than bees when pollinating, resulting in a greater genetic mix...)
    And butterflies.

    Of course it'd be moths that do the night pollination as well, I presume.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,010
    Nigelb said:

    .

    Likely a net positive for those assets which weren't public monopolies.
    A massive net negative in the case of the monopolies which became private monopolies.

    Housing is more complicated.
    The policy might have been fine if it hadn't been used as a means to take assets from local government, and take the proceeds by central government.
    The policy in reality was a short term success, and slow burn long term disaster.
    RTB should never have been at below market value and the proceeds should have remained with councils. Just a right to beggar councils really.
  • Beware the Ides of Merz!
  • Apple has just promised to invest hundreds of millions of dollars in Indonesia because the iPhone 16 had been shut out of the country's market for not having have enough components manufactured locally:

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-02-27/indonesia-to-lift-iphone-16-ban-as-apple-secures-agreement/104855174

    It once threatened to pull out of the UK market over a patent dispute, but didn't:

    https://appleinsider.com/articles/21/07/11/apple-attorneys-threaten-uk-market-exit-if-court-orders-unacceptable-patent-fees

    Apple makes a shedload of money in the UK. Not just through phone sales but also because of the kickback it gets from the apps it hosts.

    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2025/jan/13/apple-uk-app-store-class-action-fee-competition-appeal-tribunal


    :





    So? They are simply unable to do what the UK Government wants. Even they cannot access their own encryption and putting in a back door would utterly destroy the whole claim of security. This would be an existential choice between their sales in the UK (and the threat of imprisonment) and their ability to continue with high level security in the whole of the rest of the world. There really wouldn't be any choice to make. The UK just isn't that important a market compared to the rest of the world.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,471

    Beware the Ides of Merz!

    What about the ideas of Merz?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,305

    A really good thread analysing Conservative to Lib Dem voters from GE:

    They are small in number, many more to Reform.
    They are larger in number in Lib Dem constituencies, unsurprisingly.
    They mostly voted for Brexit.
    They hold 'Conservative' opinions - death penalty, lower immigration, tougher sentences, pro Brexit (but lighter), conservative values on culture wars.
    Stopped voting Conservatives due to lack of competency.

    Why did they vote Lib Dem? It's just a protest vote really.

    https://x.com/jamesbreckwoldt/status/1895053160567198074

    I'm not quite sure the point you're making - well, I am, you think (or hope) all these voters will run back to the Conservatives at the next General Election.

    They might, they might not.

    The truth is if you look at the places where the Liberal Democrats thrashed the Conservatives last July (I'll mention Chichester, Harpenden & Berkhamsted and Tewkesbury to name but three) all were built on progress at local level and the ability of the LDs to clearly identify as the main channel for a successful anti-Conservative vote.

    Last July was the election where people actively and in large numbers chose to no longer support the Conservative Party - voting LD, Labour, Reform, Green etc was one way of doing that, abstaining was another. Oddly enough, those Tories who stayed at home rather than actively voting for another party probably ensured the Conservatives survived as the second party in the Commons rather than falling to third.

    As to where these "Conservative" voters will go at the next election, impossible to know at this time. Whether Badenoch is the leader who will bring them "back into the fold" is again impossible to know at this time.

    Many of those constituencies which voted LD in 1997 remained in the LD camp until the disaster of 2015 - whether this tranche of newly elected Liberal Democrat MPs will prove easier to shift is another of the many imponderables around at the moment.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,010

    So? They are simply unable to do what the UK Government wants. Even they cannot access their own encryption and putting in a back door would utterly destroy the whole claim of security. This would be an existential choice between their sales in the UK (and the threat of imprisonment) and their ability to continue with high level security in the whole of the rest of the world. There really wouldn't be any choice to make. The UK just isn't that important a market compared to the rest of the world.
    Why isn't Android or Google impacted the same way that Apple is ?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,274
    Nigelb said:

    .

    Likely a net positive for those assets which weren't public monopolies.
    A massive net negative in the case of the monopolies which became private monopolies.

    Housing is more complicated.
    The policy might have been fine if it hadn't been used as a means to take assets from local government, and take the proceeds by central government.
    The policy in reality was a short term success, and slow burn long term disaster.
    Like all broad brush comments one could easily pick holes in mine. For one thing, soon after BT was sold off new technology emerged which made the existing arrangements really out-of-date.
    I agree with you about housing though. Looked great (to some anyway) at first but now .......
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,504
    Pulpstar said:

    RTB should never have been at below market value and the proceeds should have remained with councils. Just a right to beggar councils really.
    Ultimately it comes back to having a relatively stable population and building at a trickle and having a booming population and building at a trickle.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Why isn't Android or Google impacted the same way that Apple is ?
    Because they don't have the same levels of E2E encryption... yet. Malmesbury mentioned it below. This may all become moot if AI gets its teeth into it but at the moment Apple really do have properly secure encryption and the UK Government has no way of breaking it so wants a back door.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,504
    Pulpstar said:

    Why isn't Android or Google impacted the same way that Apple is ?
    They offer E2E encryption in a much more limited way.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,800
    edited February 27
    Mike Amesbury has his prison sentence suspended for 2 years following an appeal
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,771
    edited February 27
    algarkirk said:

    Has Matt Goodwin decided to be the next leader of Reform and ultimately PM, or is he sticking to making a name and career out of rabble rousing populist simple answers to complex problems? Or both. It isn't neither.

    https://www.mattgoodwin.org/p/i-want-my-country-back-my-latest?utm_campaign=email-half-post&r=1mnpci&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

    Here's his related speech:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3LVkJ-jhjXY

    It's fairly pure nativism imo, and quite JDVance-like. The appeal is to "this man proves it with facrs and statistic", but there;s plenty of fiction in there - including the Chicken Nugget story.

    I'd say he's positioning himself to be alongside the Famous Five.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,824

    Wildly O/t..... probably. This has turned up in my inbox.

    You have been selected to join the great Illuminati to be a member of this family; You have found favor in the eyes of the Great Creator and hence this noble invitation to be a member of the Elite Family.

    Didn't know it was some kind of lottery.
    Explains a lot. I never win anything.
  • Mike Amesbury has his prison sentence suspended for 2 years following an appeal

    No by-election then?
  • No by-election then?
    Recall apparently
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,322

    A really good thread analysing Conservative to Lib Dem voters from GE:

    They are small in number, many more to Reform.
    They are larger in number in Lib Dem constituencies, unsurprisingly.
    They mostly voted for Brexit.
    They hold 'Conservative' opinions - death penalty, lower immigration, tougher sentences, pro Brexit (but lighter), conservative values on culture wars.
    Stopped voting Conservatives due to lack of competency.

    Why did they vote Lib Dem? It's just a protest vote really.

    https://x.com/jamesbreckwoldt/status/1895053160567198074

    Although I would have suspected most of that I am a little surprised by the emphasis on points 3) and 4). I would have thought it was less so, but....

    I don't think we picked that up while we were canvassing and I am in one of those typical Surrey seats. However evidence to support what you report is that although our knock up data was generally accurate (I only knocked up one Conservative and no others out of several hundred), I did knock up Reform voters, a dozen or so. So a fair number who said they would vote for us (presumably to punish the Tories) went out and voted Reform. On that basis presumably there were more who were so inclined but stuck to switching to the LDs

    @hyufd has the more traditional view (Remainer, socially liberal, middle class) of the switchers in LD/Tory marginals in places like Surrey and Oxford and I was inclined to think it was a bit of both. I would be interested in his views, following your report.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,274

    No by-election then?
    Depends on the House of Commons, and the relevant Committee. IIRC.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,347

    So? They are simply unable to do what the UK Government wants. Even they cannot access their own encryption and putting in a back door would utterly destroy the whole claim of security. This would be an existential choice between their sales in the UK (and the threat of imprisonment) and their ability to continue with high level security in the whole of the rest of the world. There really wouldn't be any choice to make. The UK just isn't that important a market compared to the rest of the world.
    What if lots of other countries follow our approach on this?
  • dixiedean said:

    Didn't know it was some kind of lottery.
    Explains a lot. I never win anything.
    Three people won the lottery last night. Normally that means there is a pattern to the numbers but I can't see anything in 1 4 10 26 31 40. There is no special shape on the slip, and they do not work as family ages (mum, dad & 4 kids). Maybe it is just chance, like, you know, a lottery.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,935
    kjh said:

    Although I would have suspected most of that I am a little surprised by the emphasis on points 3) and 4). I would have thought it was less so, but....

    I don't think we picked that up while we were canvassing and I am in one of those typical Surrey seats. However evidence to support what you report is that although our knock up data was generally accurate (I only knocked up one Conservative and no others out of several hundred), I did knock up Reform voters, a dozen or so. So a fair number who said they would vote for us (presumably to punish the Tories) went out and voted Reform. On that basis presumably there were more who were so inclined but stuck to switching to the LDs

    @hyufd has the more traditional view (Remainer, socially liberal, middle class) of the switchers in LD/Tory marginals in places like Surrey and Oxford and I was inclined to think it was a bit of both. I would be interested in his views, following your report.
    The full article is better than the tweets imo.

    https://jamesbreckwoldt.substack.com/p/2019-conservative-to-2024-lib-dem?r=p26bo&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&triedRedirect=true
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,322

    Because they don't have the same levels of E2E encryption... yet. Malmesbury mentioned it below. This may all become moot if AI gets its teeth into it but at the moment Apple really do have properly secure encryption and the UK Government has no way of breaking it so wants a back door.
    Throwing my twp penn'orth in on a topic I know nothing about (when has that stopped anyone here?), but what about Whatsapp. Surely that would be doomed?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,935

    Mike Amesbury has his prison sentence suspended for 2 years following an appeal

    I think suspended sentences are a good idea but surely they should be suspended for much, much longer. A lot of court cases don't even get heard within 2 years!

    I would have thought if he assaults anyone else in the next 10 years he should be serving this sentence on top of the one for the next.
  • stodge said:

    I'm not quite sure the point you're making - well, I am, you think (or hope) all these voters will run back to the Conservatives at the next General Election.

    They might, they might not.

    The truth is if you look at the places where the Liberal Democrats thrashed the Conservatives last July (I'll mention Chichester, Harpenden & Berkhamsted and Tewkesbury to name but three) all were built on progress at local level and the ability of the LDs to clearly identify as the main channel for a successful anti-Conservative vote.

    Last July was the election where people actively and in large numbers chose to no longer support the Conservative Party - voting LD, Labour, Reform, Green etc was one way of doing that, abstaining was another. Oddly enough, those Tories who stayed at home rather than actively voting for another party probably ensured the Conservatives survived as the second party in the Commons rather than falling to third.

    As to where these "Conservative" voters will go at the next election, impossible to know at this time. Whether Badenoch is the leader who will bring them "back into the fold" is again impossible to know at this time.

    Many of those constituencies which voted LD in 1997 remained in the LD camp until the disaster of 2015 - whether this tranche of newly elected Liberal Democrat MPs will prove easier to shift is another of the many imponderables around at the moment.
    It's not my point(s), it is the author of the post analysing the specific responses of Con to LD voters at last GE.

    And I'm not disagreeing with your views either.

    The numbers are surprisingly small. Important in certain constituencies, but still small. Most ex-Con voters, did not go to LD, not even remotely.

    Do I think the small numbers that did will revert back to Conservatives? Not until they start to look competent again. That will take some time and I don't know if they will or not.

    I also don't think they are really LD voters. I wouldn't be surprised if they switched to Reform as the next protest vote.
  • Mike Amesbury has his prison sentence suspended for 2 years following an appeal

    Expect a lot of two tier sentencing comments. Actual violence vs tweets.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,843
    I think the biggest issue for the Lib Dem’s is the likely vote Lib Dem get Labour mantra that is bound to be part of the next Tory election campaign .

    Of course we could also see from the Lib Dems vote Tory get Reform if it seems they’d need a coalition with them .
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,202
    edited February 27
    Interesting thread on Conservative to Lib Dem switchers not matching the stereotype:

    https://x.com/jamesbreckwoldt/status/1895053160567198074

    Almost half of Conservative-to-Lib Dem switchers (48%) support bringing back the death penalty!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,010
    I note Amesbury's sentence wasn't decided by any old magistrate but by Tam Ikram who has plenty of legal experience. Does the judiciary get more lenient the higher up you get or something ?

    RIP Baron Denning.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,355

    Wildly O/t..... probably. This has turned up in my inbox.

    You have been selected to join the great Illuminati to be a member of this family; You have found favor in the eyes of the Great Creator and hence this noble invitation to be a member of the Elite Family.

    How much money does it cost to join?
  • Interesting thread on Conservative to Lib Dem switchers not matching the stereotype:

    https://x.com/jamesbreckwoldt/status/1895053160567198074

    Almost half of Conservative-to-Lib Dem switchers (48%) support bringing back the death penalty!

    "LibDems - Hanging here!"
  • Just seen in my email:

    "Elizabeth line strike action suspended

    "The planned strike action affecting Elizabeth line services on Thursday 27 February and Saturday 1, Saturday 8 and Monday 10 March has been suspended.

    Elizabeth line services are expected to run as normal on these days."
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,364

    Apple not providing a back door has been legally judged in the US as their right. All the way to the Supreme Court.

    So any attempt to go after Apple US in the courts, by the U.K., will fall on constitutional grounds.
    The point is you get them for contempt of court in the UK.

    And then you have finally judicially decided liability that can be enforced in multiple international markets
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,322

    "LibDems - Hanging here!"
    If you join the LDs you have to be in favour of a little torture even if it is of the masochistic type.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,010
    edited February 27

    The point is you get them for contempt of court in the UK.

    And then you have finally judicially decided liability that can be enforced in multiple international markets
    Can you explain this one more fully, not quite following here...
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,843
    Another alleged XL bully attacks kills a 19 year old woman in Bristol .

    These dogs should be rounded up and put down without delay .
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,364

    C'mon, Chaz & Wills pay some tax, EVEN THOUGH THEY'RE NOT OBLIGED TO!
    Of course they are not obliged to.

    The UK constitutional settlement is delicately balanced on the fiction that the government is the Crown.

    If the government demanded stuff from the Crown by right then it upends the whole thing. Far better for the government to say “I say old chap, terribly sorry, it’s a bit awkward, but would you mind donating 25% of your pre-tax profits to the state. Help us out a bit, you see.”
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,288
    Pulpstar said:

    RTB should never have been at below market value and the proceeds should have remained with councils. Just a right to beggar councils really.
    On that score, recall that back when, electricity and water used to be municipal owned corporations. Which represented another base of regional economic power.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,843
    It’s apparently okay if you're an alleged rapist and people trafficker as long you can “ own the libs “ and can get released because of pressure from the Trump administration.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,288
    nico67 said:

    It’s apparently okay if you're an alleged rapist and people trafficker as long you can “ own the libs “ and can get released because of pressure from the Trump administration.

    One small consolation is that he is still subject to recall by Romania to face potential charges.
    So with any luck will stay way from Europe for fear of arrest, and remain in Florida, which is welcome to him along with their existing assortment of undesirables.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,288

    Mrs C and I were talking about this this morning, during the interview with the chap who is Inquiring into the Water Companies.
    We wondered what, if any advantage there had been to most of us from the Tories de-nationalisation programme.
    A few people have, of course, got very rich, but what about the rest of us?
    "Wanting our country back" to us would be the return of all the assets sold off. And as a small example, someone here mentioned that many ex-Council houses were now rented out.
    We can, in theory, have our say.

    Public asked for views on how to fix the water industry
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4g097mpl79o
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,970
    nico67 said:

    Another alleged XL bully attacks kills a 19 year old woman in Bristol .

    These dogs should be rounded up and put down without delay .

    Well said

    Incredibly, the one newspaper that is seriously campaigning to “save these dogs” and repeal the XL Bully law is…. The Guardian

    Yes

    They run about an article a month saying the law is bad and wrong - then about a fortnight later they have to run a sheepish news item admitting the dogs have killed again

    wtf? I pride myself on working out editorial slants esp when they are confounding but this one is bizarre, i mean XL bully owners are not guardian readers

    Il down to

    1. The editor herself owns one of these hellhounds

    2. The guardian is secretly financed by the RSPCA (which has itself been captured by people that hate breed specific laws)

    Any other ideas?
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,680

    Depends on the House of Commons, and the relevant Committee. IIRC.
    Not quite. Recall petition remains on the table following a suspended sentence. See Recall Act secs 1-4, esp 2(3).
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,843
    Nigelb said:

    One small consolation is that he is still subject to recall by Romania to face potential charges.
    So with any luck will stay way from Europe for fear of arrest, and remain in Florida, which is welcome to him along with their existing assortment of undesirables.
    The UK could ask for his extradition from the USA which will be met with a big fat no ! The deportation agreement seems to be one of the US asks the UK says yes. The other way around we get told to get lost .
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,843
    Leon said:

    Well said

    Incredibly, the one newspaper that is seriously campaigning to “save these dogs” and repeal the XL Bully law is…. The Guardian

    Yes

    They run about an article a month saying the law is bad and wrong - then about a fortnight later they have to run a sheepish news item admitting the dogs have killed again

    wtf? I pride myself on working out editorial slants esp when they are confounding but this one is bizarre, i mean XL bully owners are not guardian readers

    Il down to

    1. The editor herself owns one of these hellhounds

    2. The guardian is secretly financed by the RSPCA (which has itself been captured by people that hate breed specific laws)

    Any other ideas?
    Thanks . I’m getting really sick of these XL bully dog owners whining about their alleged “ wouldn’t hurt a fly “ killing machine . The owners can just do one and I’d be happy to see every last XL bully put down.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,680
    Nigelb said:

    We can, in theory, have our say.

    Public asked for views on how to fix the water industry
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4g097mpl79o
    As this has ruled out public ownership, SFAICS, I doubt if many of us have a lot of very bright ideas for how to burn the candle at both ends and also make huge profits for plutocrats while nationalising their losses and debts. Perhaps the banks have some ideas on how to do this.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,504

    The point is you get them for contempt of court in the UK.

    And then you have finally judicially decided liability that can be enforced in multiple international markets
    Imagine the Chinese government decide that a British company has broken Chinese law by not giving them data on someone they, the Chinese government don’t like.

    Do you really think that international lawfare of the type you advocate is a good idea then?

    To reiterate the point - what the U.K. government is trying for is demanding Apple, not in the U.K., handover data they don’t have access to (and is held in another jurisdiction) on the grounds that it involves a U.K. legal matter.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,108

    Mike Amesbury has his prison sentence suspended for 2 years following an appeal

    So the recall petition still stands.

    Does he have any recourse to re-appeal?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,779

    A really good thread analysing Conservative to Lib Dem voters from GE:

    They are small in number, many more to Reform.
    They are larger in number in Lib Dem constituencies, unsurprisingly.
    They mostly voted for Brexit.
    They hold 'Conservative' opinions - death penalty, lower immigration, tougher sentences, pro Brexit (but lighter), conservative values on culture wars.
    Stopped voting Conservatives due to lack of competency.

    Why did they vote Lib Dem? It's just a protest vote really.

    https://x.com/jamesbreckwoldt/status/1895053160567198074

    Interesting analysis that doesn't quite support the headline points here. Con to Lib supporters are less liberal than always Lib Dems. Which isn't surprising as they probably wouldn't have voted Conservative in 2019 if they were. But they are more moderate than those who stuck it out with the Conservatives.

    Key point is a good one though. Many of us are making the assumption these switchers will stay with the Lib Dems at the next election. This assumption hasn't been tested.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,970
    nico67 said:

    Thanks . I’m getting really sick of these XL bully dog owners whining about their alleged “ wouldn’t hurt a fly “ killing machine . The owners can just do one and I’d be happy to see every last XL bully put down.
    I’d happily see any “fighting dog” shot on sight

    Alternatively if people are allowed to own these dogs and walk around with them I want the right to carry a gun

    One or the other
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,355
    nico67 said:

    It’s apparently okay if you're an alleged rapist and people trafficker as long you can “ own the libs “ and can get released because of pressure from the Trump administration.

    I don't care a fig about Tate other than to say if there are charges to answer they should be in court. As in the UK justice delayed is no-one any good.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,694

    Mike Amesbury has his prison sentence suspended for 2 years following an appeal

    Two tier... ;)
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,712
    Cox Richardson on yesterday's US Cabinet:


    "Cabinet officers, who had brought notes for the statements they expected to make, sat silent, while Musk, the unelected billionaire from South Africa who put more than a quarter of a billion dollars into electing Trump, spoke more than anyone except Trump himself. Trump didn’t turn to Vice President J.D. Vance until 56 minutes into the meeting, and Vance spoke for only 36 seconds."
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,301
    edited February 27
    Leon said:

    Well said

    Incredibly, the one newspaper that is seriously campaigning to “save these dogs” and repeal the XL Bully law is…. The Guardian

    Yes

    They run about an article a month saying the law is bad and wrong - then about a fortnight later they have to run a sheepish news item admitting the dogs have killed again

    wtf? I pride myself on working out editorial slants esp when they are confounding but this one is bizarre, i mean XL bully owners are not guardian readers

    Il down to

    1. The editor herself owns one of these hellhounds

    2. The guardian is secretly financed by the RSPCA (which has itself been captured by people that hate breed specific laws)

    Any other ideas?
    The Blank Slate must be defended at all costs?
  • TWO TIER AMESBURY :lol:
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,504
    nico67 said:

    Thanks . I’m getting really sick of these XL bully dog owners whining about their alleged “ wouldn’t hurt a fly “ killing machine . The owners can just do one and I’d be happy to see every last XL bully put down.
    My emotional support Salt Water Crocodile, Bubbles, is harmless and loveable. All two tons of him.

    Apart from some completely unforeseeable accidents. When he eats estate agents and XL Bully owners.

    This only happens once or twice a week and is always the other parties fault.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,202
    nico67 said:

    The UK could ask for his extradition from the USA which will be met with a big fat no ! The deportation agreement seems to be one of the US asks the UK says yes. The other way around we get told to get lost .
    https://x.com/robertjenrick/status/1895090511603773834

    This was predicted and should never have been allowed to happen.

    The US now needs to step up. We have an extradition treaty with them and they need to cooperate fully.

    The Tate brothers stand accused of rape and human trafficking in the UK and must face our justice system.
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,245
    edited February 27

    So the recall petition still stands.

    Does he have any recourse to re-appeal?
    I'm rusty on criminal procedure but believe he can still apply to the Court of Appeal (Criminal Division). However, they don't need to accept the application to have a hearing if there's no substantive point of law, and I doubt they will. There was a reasonable argument the prison term should have been suspended (and indeed the Crown Court has just agreed). But a relatively short suspended term given the type of offence is common and pretty uncontroversial.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    edited February 27
    Foss said:

    The Blank Slate must be defended at all costs?
    The breed-based legislation isn't working? Vide the new kinds of XL Bully-type dogs, cane corso, etc.

    I did point out this piece at the time.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025/feb/19/the-rise-of-the-cane-corso-should-this-popular-status-dog-be-banned-in-the-uk

    No point in banning breeds if (a) you don't do it properly, and (b) they can easily be replaced by the canine equivalent of a rebadge.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,932
    Leon said:

    Well said

    Incredibly, the one newspaper that is seriously campaigning to “save these dogs” and repeal the XL Bully law is…. The Guardian

    Yes

    They run about an article a month saying the law is bad and wrong - then about a fortnight later they have to run a sheepish news item admitting the dogs have killed again

    wtf? I pride myself on working out editorial slants esp when they are confounding but this one is bizarre, i mean XL bully owners are not guardian readers

    Il down to

    1. The editor herself owns one of these hellhounds

    2. The guardian is secretly financed by the RSPCA (which has itself been captured by people that hate breed specific laws)

    Any other ideas?
    Since Brexit the liberal intelligentsia has had to reassess its treatment of the lower orders - calling them ghastly chavs who only know about getting intoxicated, pumping out kids and having tattoos appears to have been counterproductive. So I suppose running a campaign to save their favourite breed of dog is intended as an olive branch to get them back on side.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,504

    I'm rusty on criminal procedure but believe he can still apply to the Court of Appeal (Criminal Division). However, they don't need to accept the application if there's no substantive point of law, and I doubt there is. There was a reasonable argument the prison term should have been suspended (and indeed the Crown Court has just agreed). But a relatively short suspended term given the type of offence is common and pretty uncontroversial.
    The original judgement clearly set out the reasons for the categorisation of the offence under the sentencing guidelines.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,504
    nico67 said:

    The UK could ask for his extradition from the USA which will be met with a big fat no ! The deportation agreement seems to be one of the US asks the UK says yes. The other way around we get told to get lost .
    Actually, to this point, everyone we’ve asked for extradition under the current treaty, has been extradited.

    In a number of cases, US requests to the U.K. have been turned down, by the courts.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,680

    So the recall petition still stands.

    Does he have any recourse to re-appeal?
    With leave to the Court of Appeal. Which I doubt if he would get. It would be unwise as the CA can increase a sentence, so there is a very small but not zero risk of reimposing the immediate sentence.

    A wise person would realise that he has been fairly fortunate to get a suspension, and also that he is not at this moment well suited for a continuing career as an MP.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,100
    edited February 27
    Leon said:

    Well said

    Incredibly, the one newspaper that is seriously campaigning to “save these dogs” and repeal the XL Bully law is…. The Guardian

    Yes

    They run about an article a month saying the law is bad and wrong - then about a fortnight later they have to run a sheepish news item admitting the dogs have killed again

    wtf? I pride myself on working out editorial slants esp when they are confounding but this one is bizarre, i mean XL bully owners are not guardian readers

    Il down to

    1. The editor herself owns one of these hellhounds

    2. The guardian is secretly financed by the RSPCA (which has itself been captured by people that hate breed specific laws)

    Any other ideas?
    The other idea might be that The Graun is not actively campaigning to “save these dogs” and that you have in fact done a Trump there: Don't like the facts? Well, make up some you do like.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,608
    ...



    https://x.com/robertjenrick/status/1895090511603773834

    This was predicted and should never have been allowed to happen.

    The US now needs to step up. We have an extradition treaty with them and they need to cooperate fully.

    The Tate brothers stand accused of rape and human trafficking in the UK and must face our justice system.
    Read the follow up responses and Honest Bob has misread HIS room. Two tier Keir and taxi drivers would have landed better. That is of course your boy Farage's line.
  • algarkirk said:

    With leave to the Court of Appeal. Which I doubt if he would get. It would be unwise as the CA can increase a sentence, so there is a very small but not zero risk of reimposing the immediate sentence.

    A wise person would realise that he has been fairly fortunate to get a suspension, and also that he is not at this moment well suited for a continuing career as an MP.
    I agree. Suspect he'll be under heavy pressure from Labour (to the extent that still matters to him) as presumably they could make the by-election coincide with local elections in May if he falls on his sword promptly rather than going through the recall process. Broadly, I think that would be helpful for them as they either get the bad electoral news over in a single hit, or they hang on to the seat and point to it as some bright news in an inevitably pretty dire set of local elections.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,108

    My emotional support Salt Water Crocodile, Bubbles, is harmless and loveable. All two tons of him.

    Apart from some completely unforeseeable accidents. When he eats estate agents and XL Bully owners.

    This only happens once or twice a week and is always the other parties fault.
    D'Oyly Carte had a pet crocodile.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 3,204
    Here's a question for Robert: Do you think we should discourage individuals from choosing products, in part, by the nations that manufacture them?

    For example, everything being equal, I prefer to buy products made in democratic or friendly nations (preferably both). So, for example, I avoid products made in "Emperor" Xi's nation, when I can.

    I suspect I am not alone in that kind of consumer choice, since I frequently see efforts by companies to brand the products as at least partly American, for example by putting "packaged in the United States" on their products.

    (Amazon keeps asking me to rate products; I have been wondering whether they would accept me deducting points for those political reasons -- and saying so.)
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,712
    Providing honest counsel is fundamental to American military culture, but it is not part of Russia’s culture, and if there’s a theme to Trump’s second term so far, it’s not Make America Great Again; it’s Make America Into Russia. The Russian military is brutal and unthinkingly obedient — and that’s exactly what the president wants.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/27/opinion/trump-hegseth-pentagon.html#
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    D'Oyly Carte had a pet crocodile.
    Oh! Never knew that. *looks up*

    An unusual addition to the Weybridge biota till it got caught. Rather sad that it was only two feet long, mind.

    https://andyhill03.wixsite.com/doylycarteisland/doyly-cartes-crocodile
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,932



    https://x.com/robertjenrick/status/1895090511603773834

    This was predicted and should never have been allowed to happen.

    The US now needs to step up. We have an extradition treaty with them and they need to cooperate fully.

    The Tate brothers stand accused of rape and human trafficking in the UK and must face our justice system.
    Wow. Is Trump actually losing elements of the British Right? I mean, if even the likes of Jenners are starting to bristle...
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,005
    FF43 said:

    Interesting analysis that doesn't quite support the headline points here. Con to Lib supporters are less liberal than always Lib Dems. Which isn't surprising as they probably wouldn't have voted Conservative in 2019 if they were. But they are more moderate than those who stuck it out with the Conservatives.

    Key point is a good one though. Many of us are making the assumption these switchers will stay with the Lib Dems at the next election. This assumption hasn't been tested.
    Could they be 'one nation' tories who have seen such MPs kicked out of the party by Boris?
  • ...

    Read the follow up responses and Honest Bob has misread HIS room. Two tier Keir and taxi drivers would have landed better. That is of course your boy Farage's line.
    TWO TIER TATE!!!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,288
    algarkirk said:

    As this has ruled out public ownership, SFAICS, I doubt if many of us have a lot of very bright ideas for how to burn the candle at both ends and also make huge profits for plutocrats while nationalising their losses and debts. Perhaps the banks have some ideas on how to do this.
    Yes, that's daft.

    Bill payers are basically being told they need to pay to rebuild the capital base of the industry, for the benefit of the private owners who have destroyed it over the last couple of decades.
    The owners will then demand a "commercial rate of return" on the capital base WE have paid for.

    Some are already taking legal action to demand higher bills than the increases the regulator has already granted. Taking the piss.

    The entire system stinks, and I think the public should say so. Loudly.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,051

    Cummings has a prediction about the Tory leadership:

    https://x.com/dominic2306/status/1894719592129343971

    NB. the Establishment plan is to shuffle in thicko Cleverley when Kemi blows.
    'We thought we had the Black Thatcher, she turned out to be the Black Truss, but now we got the Black Boris, ta-da!'

    The members come in for a lot of criticism, but MPs keep putting these candidates forwards.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,288

    Providing honest counsel is fundamental to American military culture, but it is not part of Russia’s culture, and if there’s a theme to Trump’s second term so far, it’s not Make America Great Again; it’s Make America Into Russia. The Russian military is brutal and unthinkingly obedient — and that’s exactly what the president wants.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/27/opinion/trump-hegseth-pentagon.html#

    Was fundamental.

    it's already unclear whether that's still the case, after the recent firings and hirings.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,986
    edited February 27

    Wow. Is Trump actually losing elements of the British Right? I mean, if even the likes of Jenners are starting to bristle...
    The one thing you can absolutely rely upon with Jenrick is that he never does anything out of principle, but only through the lens of how it advances his career. Assume he’s set on leading the lore and ordure Conservatives rather than any Reformist dabbling.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,310
    F1: minor so far but Piastri's odds have been declining a bit, Verstappen going out a touch.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,051

    And Apple withdraw from the UK. There is an inevitablility about this that you don't seem to comprehend.
    I'm with @StillWaters on this

    I don't want American corporations deciding what our laws should be in this country anymore than I want the European Union doing it.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,166
    Discussion of the legal and practical issues with using the "old" Bundestag to either reform the constitutional debt brake, or create a special defence fund exempt from the debt brake (both of which require a 2 thirds majority).

    https://www.lto.de/recht/hintergruende/h/sondervermoegen-schuldenbremse-bundeswehr-grundgesetz-verfassungsrecht-umgehung-bundestag-alter-neuer

    In German but machine translation works OK.

    tldr: there aren't any real legal problems (though an attempt could be made to delay things beyond the 25th March deadline when the new Bundestag has to start).

    However there are practical issues, especially with trying to reform the debt brake as there is no agreement on how to reform it. A special defence fund would be a lot simpler.

    Spiegel has an article on Merz's approach
    https://www.spiegel.de/politik/sondervermoegen-der-bundeswehr-diese-falle-hat-sich-friedrich-merz-selbst-gestellt-a-21428c75-d080-4f72-a8fa-141f13974cb4

    "Merz set this trap for himself

    Friedrich Merz wants to use the majorities of the old Bundestag to mobilize funds for national defense. It is an act of desperation that only Merz himself could have avoided."
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,001

    Actually, to this point, everyone we’ve asked for extradition under the current treaty, has been extradited.

    In a number of cases, US requests to the U.K. have been turned down, by the courts.
    And we will just get a rant about not extraditing Assange to the US.
This discussion has been closed.