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Ô Canada! Terre de nos aïeux, Ton front est ceint de fleurons glorieux! – politicalbetting.com

24

Comments

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,991
    rcs1000 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Dumber than a bag of rare earth minerals...

    @faisalislam
    NEW:

    What if the EU retaliates?

    Trump: “They can’t. They can try, but they can’t… the numbers can never equal us… they can retaliate , but it cannot be a successful retaliation, because we just go cold turkey we dont buy any more and if that happens, we win”.

    I hope the EU responds or at least stands up to him
    As long as we're not involved, let them at it and pass the popcorn I say.
    The Trump tariffs will reduce the value of the Euro, and increase the value of the US Dollar, so it will have an impact on us even if no tariffs are imposed on the UK.
    Thank God for Brexit, eh?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,991
    edited February 26
    rcs1000 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Dumber than a bag of rare earth minerals...

    @faisalislam
    NEW:

    What if the EU retaliates?

    Trump: “They can’t. They can try, but they can’t… the numbers can never equal us… they can retaliate , but it cannot be a successful retaliation, because we just go cold turkey we dont buy any more and if that happens, we win”.

    I hope the EU responds or at least stands up to him
    Actually, I think the smartest thing the EU can do is simply to ignore the tariffs, and attempt to stimulate domestic demand.

    Hopefully policymakers will realise that if you can't depend on external demand (i.e. the US), then you need to generate demand at home. Doing this would (a) reduce the trade surplus, and (b) make Europeans generally happier and wealthier.

    Buy American last?

    Likely to be bad news for Tesla regardless.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,283
    rcs1000 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Dumber than a bag of rare earth minerals...

    @faisalislam
    NEW:

    What if the EU retaliates?

    Trump: “They can’t. They can try, but they can’t… the numbers can never equal us… they can retaliate , but it cannot be a successful retaliation, because we just go cold turkey we dont buy any more and if that happens, we win”.

    I hope the EU responds or at least stands up to him
    As long as we're not involved, let them at it and pass the popcorn I say.
    The Trump tariffs will reduce the value of the Euro, and increase the value of the US Dollar, so it will have an impact on us even if no tariffs are imposed on the UK.
    Do we have any reason to suppose that Mr Trump knows the UK is not part of the EU? He may believe the tariffs being applied to the EU will automatically apply to the UK.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,407
    rcs1000 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Dumber than a bag of rare earth minerals...

    @faisalislam
    NEW:

    What if the EU retaliates?

    Trump: “They can’t. They can try, but they can’t… the numbers can never equal us… they can retaliate , but it cannot be a successful retaliation, because we just go cold turkey we dont buy any more and if that happens, we win”.

    I hope the EU responds or at least stands up to him
    As long as we're not involved, let them at it and pass the popcorn I say.
    The Trump tariffs will reduce the value of the Euro, and increase the value of the US Dollar, so it will have an impact on us even if no tariffs are imposed on the UK.
    Trump seems to think VAT is a tarrif, so...
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,445
    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Dumber than a bag of rare earth minerals...

    @faisalislam
    NEW:

    What if the EU retaliates?

    Trump: “They can’t. They can try, but they can’t… the numbers can never equal us… they can retaliate , but it cannot be a successful retaliation, because we just go cold turkey we dont buy any more and if that happens, we win”.

    I hope the EU responds or at least stands up to him
    As long as we're not involved, let them at it and pass the popcorn I say.
    The Trump tariffs will reduce the value of the Euro, and increase the value of the US Dollar, so it will have an impact on us even if no tariffs are imposed on the UK.
    Trump seems to think VAT is a tarrif, so...
    What Reeves needs to do is announce that we are abolishing VAT, and replacing it with a completely different absolutely not a tariff tax called “GST”.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,907
    The Conservatives are still probably going to win the Canadian election in May imo, albeit with a smaller majority than before Trump arrived in the White House.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,831
    I got a small amount on the Canadian libs at 11/1, after the tariff storm broke, as a long shot bet. It’s starting to look a little more hopeful.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,376
    rcs1000 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Dumber than a bag of rare earth minerals...

    @faisalislam
    NEW:

    What if the EU retaliates?

    Trump: “They can’t. They can try, but they can’t… the numbers can never equal us… they can retaliate , but it cannot be a successful retaliation, because we just go cold turkey we dont buy any more and if that happens, we win”.

    I hope the EU responds or at least stands up to him
    Actually, I think the smartest thing the EU can do is simply to ignore the tariffs, and attempt to stimulate domestic demand.

    Hopefully policymakers will realise that if you can't depend on external demand (i.e. the US), then you need to generate demand at home. Doing this would (a) reduce the trade surplus, and (b) make Europeans generally happier and wealthier.

    But then what leverage do they have when it's time to remove tariffs?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,968
    edited February 26
    Nigelb said:

    Of course Chagos Deal will come out the defence budget, it’s a no brainer, is it even a question to ask and non answer give? All the British Tax Payer gets from Chagos deal is security and defence of the realm, not budget holiday destination, so what other budget could it possibly come out of?

    I thought you'd seen the light on the Chagos Deal - I suppose Starmer cheerleading is a bigger priority for you than facts.
    We’re planning to swap it for Greenland …
    As part of original Greenland deal of Danish ownership, UK get first dibs if Denmark put Greenland up for sale? So maybe it’s the new “Chagos” example of UK being USA’s colonial bitch? If UK buys Greenland, ethnically cleanses it of Greenlanders, and US puts a military base on it, it’s identical to controversial 1960’s Chagos deal, our NATO allies won’t support us on?

    Is it possible Ukraine precious earth deal with US started as Ukraine offer to US? With the costs involved to get meaningful extraction and processing, destroying profit margins to meagre returns all round, Ukraine have mugged Trumps White House with security commitments with “nothing much” in return for US?
  • kjh said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Dumber than a bag of rare earth minerals...

    @faisalislam
    NEW:

    What if the EU retaliates?

    Trump: “They can’t. They can try, but they can’t… the numbers can never equal us… they can retaliate , but it cannot be a successful retaliation, because we just go cold turkey we dont buy any more and if that happens, we win”.

    This is hurting my brain. If the EU sets tariffs it reduces US sales to Europe, it doesn't impact EU sales to the US. It's Trump's tariffs that does that. What an I missing?
    Trump is implicitly threatening US retaliation to any EU retaliation, whether increased tariffs or a complete ban on European imports.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Dumber than a bag of rare earth minerals...

    @faisalislam
    NEW:

    What if the EU retaliates?

    Trump: “They can’t. They can try, but they can’t… the numbers can never equal us… they can retaliate , but it cannot be a successful retaliation, because we just go cold turkey we dont buy any more and if that happens, we win”.

    I hope the EU responds or at least stands up to him
    As long as we're not involved, let them at it and pass the popcorn I say.
    The Trump tariffs will reduce the value of the Euro, and increase the value of the US Dollar, so it will have an impact on us even if no tariffs are imposed on the UK.
    Thank God for Brexit, eh?
    A rising dollar would mean America could buy more British goods. Whether it could do so without triggering President Trump is another question.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,445
    Reflecting on that despicable Gaza video Trump posted, as I’d been wandering what it reminded me of. And I realised it is the aesthetic straight out of the coffee table book Dictators’ Homes by Peter York, mixed with a dose of Turkmenbashi.

    The book is a hideous classic. Full page spreads of the distinctly non-IKEA interiors of the presidential palaces of the likes of Mobutu, Saddam, Ceausescu and Noriega.
    There seems to be something about being a narcissistic autocrat that correlates with exceptionally bad taste and a love of lurid kitsch.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,445
    carnforth said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Dumber than a bag of rare earth minerals...

    @faisalislam
    NEW:

    What if the EU retaliates?

    Trump: “They can’t. They can try, but they can’t… the numbers can never equal us… they can retaliate , but it cannot be a successful retaliation, because we just go cold turkey we dont buy any more and if that happens, we win”.

    I hope the EU responds or at least stands up to him
    Actually, I think the smartest thing the EU can do is simply to ignore the tariffs, and attempt to stimulate domestic demand.

    Hopefully policymakers will realise that if you can't depend on external demand (i.e. the US), then you need to generate demand at home. Doing this would (a) reduce the trade surplus, and (b) make Europeans generally happier and wealthier.

    But then what leverage do they have when it's time to remove tariffs?
    The EU should retaliate hard, and make sure it’s where it hurts. Ideally in concert with Canada, Mexico and Japan.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,445

    rcs1000 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Dumber than a bag of rare earth minerals...

    @faisalislam
    NEW:

    What if the EU retaliates?

    Trump: “They can’t. They can try, but they can’t… the numbers can never equal us… they can retaliate , but it cannot be a successful retaliation, because we just go cold turkey we dont buy any more and if that happens, we win”.

    I hope the EU responds or at least stands up to him
    As long as we're not involved, let them at it and pass the popcorn I say.
    The Trump tariffs will reduce the value of the Euro, and increase the value of the US Dollar, so it will have an impact on us even if no tariffs are imposed on the UK.
    Thank God for Brexit, eh?
    A rising dollar would mean America could buy more British goods. Whether it could do so without triggering President Trump is another question.
    More likely buy more British services, which of course do not attract customs duty.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,445

    kjh said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Dumber than a bag of rare earth minerals...

    @faisalislam
    NEW:

    What if the EU retaliates?

    Trump: “They can’t. They can try, but they can’t… the numbers can never equal us… they can retaliate , but it cannot be a successful retaliation, because we just go cold turkey we dont buy any more and if that happens, we win”.

    This is hurting my brain. If the EU sets tariffs it reduces US sales to Europe, it doesn't impact EU sales to the US. It's Trump's tariffs that does that. What an I missing?
    Trump is implicitly threatening US retaliation to any EU retaliation, whether increased tariffs or a complete ban on European imports.
    Which would be excellent for consumer economies with trade deficits like the UK. We’d be inundated with cheap stuff, while the US would see major inflation.
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,243

    kjh said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Dumber than a bag of rare earth minerals...

    @faisalislam
    NEW:

    What if the EU retaliates?

    Trump: “They can’t. They can try, but they can’t… the numbers can never equal us… they can retaliate , but it cannot be a successful retaliation, because we just go cold turkey we dont buy any more and if that happens, we win”.

    This is hurting my brain. If the EU sets tariffs it reduces US sales to Europe, it doesn't impact EU sales to the US. It's Trump's tariffs that does that. What an I missing?
    Trump is implicitly threatening US retaliation to any EU retaliation, whether increased tariffs or a complete ban on European imports.
    They said the same with Canada.

    Trump only responds to strength. The EU will have to respond, but will be more targeted in its approach (e.g. higher than 25% tariffs on a subset of more easily substitutable goods).

    Trump will then retaliate. And then the EU will do in kind until some 'deal' is made.

    Doing nothing would just empower Trump to increase tariffs further for some future perceived slight or mood swing.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,047
    I've just put something with pineapple on it in the oven...
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,249
    TimS said:

    Reflecting on that despicable Gaza video Trump posted, as I’d been wandering what it reminded me of. And I realised it is the aesthetic straight out of the coffee table book Dictators’ Homes by Peter York, mixed with a dose of Turkmenbashi.

    The book is a hideous classic. Full page spreads of the distinctly non-IKEA interiors of the presidential palaces of the likes of Mobutu, Saddam, Ceausescu and Noriega.
    There seems to be something about being a narcissistic autocrat that correlates with exceptionally bad taste and a love of lurid kitsch.

    Watching it, I wondered, was it a parody or not?

    Dictator aesthetic seems very much a poor man’s idea of how a rich man lives.

    Whereas, the richest man of my acquaintance drives a seven year old Saab, and wears old suits and cardigans.
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,243
    In addition - it's worth bearing in mind Trump is launching a trade war with nearly the whole world. Every other bloc only has a trade war with the US.

    It's a losing strategy for Trump. Once again he overestimates his own power and the willingness of other nations to be bullied.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,563

    I've decided the problem with the world today: there aren't enough people playing with their train set.

    That's the real issue: lots of people would be happier if they built and played with a train set.

    THERE.

    In the time I have been away you seem to have become remarkably serene. I hope the two factors aren't linked.
    Assuming this isn't sarcasm (!) the reasons are (1) I quit a job I hated and (2) I am getting some advice and help.
    .
    I relapse at times. It's hard to change learned behaviour.
    No, my statement was without irony. You genuinely appear less stressed which can only be a positive.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,445
    Sean_F said:

    TimS said:

    Reflecting on that despicable Gaza video Trump posted, as I’d been wandering what it reminded me of. And I realised it is the aesthetic straight out of the coffee table book Dictators’ Homes by Peter York, mixed with a dose of Turkmenbashi.

    The book is a hideous classic. Full page spreads of the distinctly non-IKEA interiors of the presidential palaces of the likes of Mobutu, Saddam, Ceausescu and Noriega.
    There seems to be something about being a narcissistic autocrat that correlates with exceptionally bad taste and a love of lurid kitsch.

    Watching it, I wondered, was it a parody or not?

    Dictator aesthetic seems very much a poor man’s idea of how a rich man lives.

    Whereas, the richest man of my acquaintance drives a seven year old Saab, and wears old suits and cardigans.
    I’m sure Trump thought it was funny, which tells you a lot about the man’s sick mindset.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,445
    Ratters said:

    In addition - it's worth bearing in mind Trump is launching a trade war with nearly the whole world. Every other bloc only has a trade war with the US.

    It's a losing strategy for Trump. Once again he overestimates his own power and the willingness of other nations to be bullied.

    A trade war with the whole world, apart it seems from Russia.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,376

    I've just put something with pineapple on it in the oven...

    I'm having one of these:

    https://www.waitrose.com/ecom/products/crosta-mollica-stromboli-sourdough-pizza/874701-805705-805706

    Very decent, but one of those tiresome products which is overpriced when not on offer.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,709

    Nigelb said:

    Of course Chagos Deal will come out the defence budget, it’s a no brainer, is it even a question to ask and non answer give? All the British Tax Payer gets from Chagos deal is security and defence of the realm, not budget holiday destination, so what other budget could it possibly come out of?

    I thought you'd seen the light on the Chagos Deal - I suppose Starmer cheerleading is a bigger priority for you than facts.
    We’re planning to swap it for Greenland …
    As part of original Greenland deal of Danish ownership, UK get first dibs if Denmark put Greenland up for sale? So maybe it’s the new “Chagos” example of UK being USA’s colonial bitch? If UK buys Greenland, ethnically cleanses it of Greenlanders, and US puts a military base on it, it’s identical to controversial 1960’s Chagos deal, our NATO allies won’t support us on?

    Is it possible Ukraine precious earth deal with US started as Ukraine offer to US? With the costs involved to get meaningful extraction and processing, destroying profit margins to meagre returns all round, Ukraine have mugged Trumps White House with security commitments with “nothing much” in return for US?
    I though that was debunked:

    No, Britain doesn't have first dibs on Greenland

    I've found archive documents which show, contrary to recent reports, that Denmark icily rejected the UK's demand to have right of first refusal if Greenland was ever to be sold


    https://substack.com/home/post/p-156678551
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,907
    Article in the centre-left New Statesman.

    "The AfD’s rise is the centre left’s final warning
    The surging far-right is a symptom of a world slipping out of progressive control – and comprehension.
    By Jason Cowley"

    https://www.newstatesman.com/world/europe/2025/02/afds-rise-is-centre-lefts-final-warning
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,709
    edited February 26
    The list of organisations to be investigated after the Grenfell Report:

    Arconic Architectural Products SAS - made cladding
    Saint-Gobain Construction Products UK Limited - in relation to its then ownership of insulation firm Celotex Limited
    Exova (UK) Limited - carried out fire risk safety assessments
    Harley Facades Limited - installed cladding
    Kingspan Insulation Limited - insulation
    Rydon Maintenance Limited - main project contractor
    Studio E Architects Limited - architects


    Some of these may be prevented from bidding for Govt contracts:

    Manufacturing companies that are probed could be prevented from bidding for public contracts, while two existing bodies will be merged to form a single building safety regulator as part of the changes.

    That looks like a potential supply side crunch in the (especially Government supplying) insulation board market, if it is still dominated by Celotex and Kingspan; I may be a few years out of date. Celotex has changed ownership.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cvg1eje2jg4o
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,047
    carnforth said:

    I've just put something with pineapple on it in the oven...

    I'm having one of these:

    https://www.waitrose.com/ecom/products/crosta-mollica-stromboli-sourdough-pizza/874701-805705-805706

    Very decent, but one of those tiresome products which is overpriced when not on offer.
    Wonderful. Mine isn't pizza..
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,907
    carnforth said:

    I've just put something with pineapple on it in the oven...

    I'm having one of these:

    https://www.waitrose.com/ecom/products/crosta-mollica-stromboli-sourdough-pizza/874701-805705-805706

    Very decent, but one of those tiresome products which is overpriced when not on offer.
    I’ve had a few of their pizzas when on offer with a Nectar discount.

    Enjoyable.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,240
    It does look now that the Canadian Liberals have a chance of at least getting a hung parliament and maybe even most votes as well as seats for the first time since Trudeau's win in 2015 if Carney replaces him as Liberal leader.

    Poor Pierre Poilievre having looked odds on to be PM must feel rather like Neil Kinnock did in late 1990, who having been odds on to be next PM and beat Thatcher at the next general election ended up facing John Major as Conservative leader who got enough of a bounce to scrape a narrow win in 1992 and a historic 4th term. Which Carney would also get for the Liberals if he won
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,907
    TimS said:

    Reflecting on that despicable Gaza video Trump posted, as I’d been wandering what it reminded me of. And I realised it is the aesthetic straight out of the coffee table book Dictators’ Homes by Peter York, mixed with a dose of Turkmenbashi.

    The book is a hideous classic. Full page spreads of the distinctly non-IKEA interiors of the presidential palaces of the likes of Mobutu, Saddam, Ceausescu and Noriega.
    There seems to be something about being a narcissistic autocrat that correlates with exceptionally bad taste and a love of lurid kitsch.

    James O’Brien said it was the maddest thing he has ever seen which, given he looks in the mirror daily, is saying something.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,109

    Chagos deal off if Trumpski doesn't like it - Lammy.

    Edit: Could get complicate as when he asks Putin what to do, Putin may need instructions from Bejing.

    So UK has completely outsourced its foreign policy to Trump now?
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,376

    carnforth said:

    I've just put something with pineapple on it in the oven...

    I'm having one of these:

    https://www.waitrose.com/ecom/products/crosta-mollica-stromboli-sourdough-pizza/874701-805705-805706

    Very decent, but one of those tiresome products which is overpriced when not on offer.
    Wonderful. Mine isn't pizza..
    A ham? Worse than putting it on Pizza.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,968

    Of course Chagos Deal will come out the defence budget, it’s a no brainer, is it even a question to ask and non answer give? All the British Tax Payer gets from Chagos deal is security and defence of the realm, not budget holiday destination, so what other budget could it possibly come out of?

    I thought you'd seen the light on the Chagos Deal - I suppose Starmer cheerleading is a bigger priority for you than facts.
    Nope. I’m not supporting the deal. I’m not supporting Starmer. I’m commenting on the politics of it today.

    1. Whether Chagos deal provides security to UK or not is irrelevant - if it becomes a deal, it’s a defence deal, is my point. The only budget it can be charged to is defence. So the purpose in asking a government keen to achieve the deal, what budget it comes from, is to extract refusal to answer.
    2. It gets refuse to answer with only possible answer - defence - is a government on the back foot, making it good work from Kemi and a strong PMQ from her.
    3. Trump will 100% back the deal, as the winners from the deal are US, India, and Mauritius, a triumvirate of like minded buddies. The only question mark is how Trump will now improve the deal further in Mauritius favour, at expense of UK. Trump likes most the previous administrations cosying with India, though looks to rebrand the good bits with his own name.
    4. UK PM at PMQs cannot publicly say the deal is actually all about furthering UK security interests, by giving US and India what they want and keeping them sweet, even though it’s the truth. That India calls off its slander and pressure on us over “no Mauritius deal”, US control of island and waters without messy ownership, India get a free stab into British colonialism.
    5. Last Chagos deal got us cheaper defence procurement from US, I’m not sure Starmer can publicly admit this bit either if part of the new deal, as it’s a rather abstract sweetener or stipend.

    That’s my take out from today’s bit of politics.
    Broadly I do give some value to this gloomy prognosis, though I cherish a lingering hope that Trump will decide to stick it to Starmer and shitcan the deal.

    It's basically another complete waste of defence spend, like Trident but without the veneer of usefulness. Next time we're being invaded, what do we do, wave the Chagos deal at them? Before trying to fire a Trident missile at them as an encore and it turns tail and heads back to Florida?
    90M a year is maintenance cost of 1 UK aircraft carrier. I agree with you Lucky, 90M a year to Mauritius seems an insane amount of money for UK taxpayer to fork out - a straightforward case of Labour government must be bonkers.

    But I’m confident my research and analysis - that this whole Chagos thing never that straightforward at any point - is spot on. But I can only prove my argument with a tick in the box from Donald Trump. In which instance I might write a header TRUMP PROVES MOONRABBIT RIGHT for those who don’t understand my crazy, gloomy analysis.

    But trying to get into Trumps brain of what he likes and don’t like is harder psychoanalysis than divining a General Election date. With Trumps brain, it’s not just the material thing about the transaction which excites, but the context it’s set in that titillates him. Like slavery can be an economic return on balance sheet, AND a power trip at the same time. This time it’s not just USA we are giving a power trip to, but joining a pair of lovers for a three in the bed.

    We know materially what happened in the 1960’s to Chagos - place was nothing to do with British Empire, but we came to be owning it and ethnically cleansing it for a US base. So what has changed in this context since doing this, that makes US not like this Chagos deal?

    My conclusions, aside from the material, the Context has to be exactly the same, or why else have both US and India been involved in making this deal, still dressed up as UK decision making, like cosplay, just an act?

    Amongst the cheesy to and thro of Westminster/Fleet Street politics that is so here and now, and where we easily get mugged of the truth, questions like, why did we do what we did in the first place, was it France said non to the US, UK said yes, we’ll do it for you for cheaper cutting edge weapons - this question never gets asked. Why do you think we came to take ownership from France in 1960s and so quickly grant all but a bit of it independence?

    Nor the question does this Chagos deal look to a future of India influence and control of the Ocean that bears its name? That doesn’t get asked either. Is this new Chagos deal what India demands for US security partnership - Or a sweetener towards that?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,831

    I've just put something with pineapple on it in the oven...

    Is this a meal or a cry for help?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,240
    TimS said:

    carnforth said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Dumber than a bag of rare earth minerals...

    @faisalislam
    NEW:

    What if the EU retaliates?

    Trump: “They can’t. They can try, but they can’t… the numbers can never equal us… they can retaliate , but it cannot be a successful retaliation, because we just go cold turkey we dont buy any more and if that happens, we win”.

    I hope the EU responds or at least stands up to him
    Actually, I think the smartest thing the EU can do is simply to ignore the tariffs, and attempt to stimulate domestic demand.

    Hopefully policymakers will realise that if you can't depend on external demand (i.e. the US), then you need to generate demand at home. Doing this would (a) reduce the trade surplus, and (b) make Europeans generally happier and wealthier.

    But then what leverage do they have when it's time to remove tariffs?
    The EU should retaliate hard, and make sure it’s where it hurts. Ideally in concert with Canada, Mexico and Japan.
    And China of course
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,143

    Chagos deal off if Trumpski doesn't like it - Lammy.

    Edit: Could get complicate as when he asks Putin what to do, Putin may need instructions from Bejing.

    So UK has completely outsourced its foreign policy to Trump now?
    The predictions that Reform would suffer from their association with Trump didn’t reckon with the fact that it’s Labour in office who are having to dance to his tune.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,831
    HYUFD said:

    It does look now that the Canadian Liberals have a chance of at least getting a hung parliament and maybe even most votes as well as seats for the first time since Trudeau's win in 2015 if Carney replaces him as Liberal leader.

    Poor Pierre Poilievre having looked odds on to be PM must feel rather like Neil Kinnock did in late 1990, who having been odds on to be next PM and beat Thatcher at the next general election ended up facing John Major as Conservative leader who got enough of a bounce to scrape a narrow win in 1992 and a historic 4th term. Which Carney would also get for the Liberals if he won

    Did the Tories send Mrs May over to lend Poilievre a hand?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,240
    edited February 26
    Andy_JS said:

    The Conservatives are still probably going to win the Canadian election in May imo, albeit with a smaller majority than before Trump arrived in the White House.

    Perhaps but the last 2 Canadian polls had the Liberals on 38%, higher than they got in 2019 and 2021, even if the Conservatives are also up to 36% and 37% with the NDP well down to 12% and the BQ down to 4 and 6% and PPC down to 3%
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2025_Canadian_federal_election
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,047
    carnforth said:

    carnforth said:

    I've just put something with pineapple on it in the oven...

    I'm having one of these:

    https://www.waitrose.com/ecom/products/crosta-mollica-stromboli-sourdough-pizza/874701-805705-805706

    Very decent, but one of those tiresome products which is overpriced when not on offer.
    Wonderful. Mine isn't pizza..
    A ham? Worse than putting it on Pizza.
    Baked salmon with pineapple. Served with coconut rice and pak choi.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,240

    Of course Chagos Deal will come out the defence budget, it’s a no brainer, is it even a question to ask and non answer give? All the British Tax Payer gets from Chagos deal is security and defence of the realm, not budget holiday destination, so what other budget could it possibly come out of?

    I thought you'd seen the light on the Chagos Deal - I suppose Starmer cheerleading is a bigger priority for you than facts.
    Nope. I’m not supporting the deal. I’m not supporting Starmer. I’m commenting on the politics of it today.

    1. Whether Chagos deal provides security to UK or not is irrelevant - if it becomes a deal, it’s a defence deal, is my point. The only budget it can be charged to is defence. So the purpose in asking a government keen to achieve the deal, what budget it comes from, is to extract refusal to answer.
    2. It gets refuse to answer with only possible answer - defence - is a government on the back foot, making it good work from Kemi and a strong PMQ from her.
    3. Trump will 100% back the deal, as the winners from the deal are US, India, and Mauritius, a triumvirate of like minded buddies. The only question mark is how Trump will now improve the deal further in Mauritius favour, at expense of UK. Trump likes most the previous administrations cosying with India, though looks to rebrand the good bits with his own name.
    4. UK PM at PMQs cannot publicly say the deal is actually all about furthering UK security interests, by giving US and India what they want and keeping them sweet, even though it’s the truth. That India calls off its slander and pressure on us over “no Mauritius deal”, US control of island and waters without messy ownership, India get a free stab into British colonialism.
    5. Last Chagos deal got us cheaper defence procurement from US, I’m not sure Starmer can publicly admit this bit either if part of the new deal, as it’s a rather abstract sweetener or stipend.

    That’s my take out from today’s bit of politics.
    Broadly I do give some value to this gloomy prognosis, though I cherish a lingering hope that Trump will decide to stick it to Starmer and shitcan the deal.

    It's basically another complete waste of defence spend, like Trident but without the veneer of usefulness. Next time we're being invaded, what do we do, wave the Chagos deal at them? Before trying to fire a Trident missile at them as an encore and it turns tail and heads back to Florida?
    Only possible military invasion of UK at present would be from Russia, who would have to get past France's independent military deterrent first as well as all the NATO forces on continental Europe
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,047

    Scott_xP said:

    Dumber than a bag of rare earth minerals...

    @faisalislam
    NEW:

    What if the EU retaliates?

    Trump: “They can’t. They can try, but they can’t… the numbers can never equal us… they can retaliate , but it cannot be a successful retaliation, because we just go cold turkey we dont buy any more and if that happens, we win”.

    I hope the EU responds or at least stands up to him
    Britain is your team, not the EU.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,712
    HYUFD said:

    Of course Chagos Deal will come out the defence budget, it’s a no brainer, is it even a question to ask and non answer give? All the British Tax Payer gets from Chagos deal is security and defence of the realm, not budget holiday destination, so what other budget could it possibly come out of?

    I thought you'd seen the light on the Chagos Deal - I suppose Starmer cheerleading is a bigger priority for you than facts.
    Nope. I’m not supporting the deal. I’m not supporting Starmer. I’m commenting on the politics of it today.

    1. Whether Chagos deal provides security to UK or not is irrelevant - if it becomes a deal, it’s a defence deal, is my point. The only budget it can be charged to is defence. So the purpose in asking a government keen to achieve the deal, what budget it comes from, is to extract refusal to answer.
    2. It gets refuse to answer with only possible answer - defence - is a government on the back foot, making it good work from Kemi and a strong PMQ from her.
    3. Trump will 100% back the deal, as the winners from the deal are US, India, and Mauritius, a triumvirate of like minded buddies. The only question mark is how Trump will now improve the deal further in Mauritius favour, at expense of UK. Trump likes most the previous administrations cosying with India, though looks to rebrand the good bits with his own name.
    4. UK PM at PMQs cannot publicly say the deal is actually all about furthering UK security interests, by giving US and India what they want and keeping them sweet, even though it’s the truth. That India calls off its slander and pressure on us over “no Mauritius deal”, US control of island and waters without messy ownership, India get a free stab into British colonialism.
    5. Last Chagos deal got us cheaper defence procurement from US, I’m not sure Starmer can publicly admit this bit either if part of the new deal, as it’s a rather abstract sweetener or stipend.

    That’s my take out from today’s bit of politics.
    Broadly I do give some value to this gloomy prognosis, though I cherish a lingering hope that Trump will decide to stick it to Starmer and shitcan the deal.

    It's basically another complete waste of defence spend, like Trident but without the veneer of usefulness. Next time we're being invaded, what do we do, wave the Chagos deal at them? Before trying to fire a Trident missile at them as an encore and it turns tail and heads back to Florida?
    Only possible military invasion of UK at present would be from Russia, who would have to get past France's independent military deterrent first as well as all the NATO forces on continental Europe
    And they'd have to rely on Eurostar, unless they came by ferry.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,407

    Chagos deal off if Trumpski doesn't like it - Lammy.

    Edit: Could get complicate as when he asks Putin what to do, Putin may need instructions from Bejing.

    So UK has completely outsourced its foreign policy to Trump now?
    Diego Garcia is valueless except as a secure US airbase in the centre of the Indian Ocean. Of course America gets a large say in it.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,261

    Scott_xP said:

    Dumber than a bag of rare earth minerals...

    @faisalislam
    NEW:

    What if the EU retaliates?

    Trump: “They can’t. They can try, but they can’t… the numbers can never equal us… they can retaliate , but it cannot be a successful retaliation, because we just go cold turkey we dont buy any more and if that happens, we win”.

    I hope the EU responds or at least stands up to him
    Britain is your team, not the EU.
    The EU is still our team, we're just on the bench.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,240
    edited February 26
    Andy_JS said:

    Has a by-election seat been lined up for Carney?

    Not strictly necessary. John Turner was Canadian PM from June to September 1984 without ever winning a House of Commons seat in that timeframe, although he was a candidate for a seat in the Federal election later that year which he narrowly won although he lost nationally to Mulroney

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Turner#Prime_minister_(June–September_1984)
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,143
    Foxy said:

    Chagos deal off if Trumpski doesn't like it - Lammy.

    Edit: Could get complicate as when he asks Putin what to do, Putin may need instructions from Bejing.

    So UK has completely outsourced its foreign policy to Trump now?
    Diego Garcia is valueless except as a secure US airbase in the centre of the Indian Ocean. Of course America gets a large say in it.
    https://x.com/itvpeston/status/1894803940069245413

    “If President Trump doesn’t like the deal, the deal will not go forward”

    Foreign Secretary @DavidLammy suggests that Trump has a veto on the Chagos Island deal
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,907
    In a bid to make Trafalgar Square more diverse, this evening, the govt have announced a new statue to be added.

    https://x.com/maxtempers/status/1894706828753121327?s=61
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,240
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    It does look now that the Canadian Liberals have a chance of at least getting a hung parliament and maybe even most votes as well as seats for the first time since Trudeau's win in 2015 if Carney replaces him as Liberal leader.

    Poor Pierre Poilievre having looked odds on to be PM must feel rather like Neil Kinnock did in late 1990, who having been odds on to be next PM and beat Thatcher at the next general election ended up facing John Major as Conservative leader who got enough of a bounce to scrape a narrow win in 1992 and a historic 4th term. Which Carney would also get for the Liberals if he won

    Did the Tories send Mrs May over to lend Poilievre a hand?
    Mrs May did at least win enough seats to become PM yes unlike Kinnock
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,283
    Taz said:

    In a bid to make Trafalgar Square more diverse, this evening, the govt have announced a new statue to be added.

    https://x.com/maxtempers/status/1894706828753121327?s=61

    Someone's published their April Fool's Day spoof too early.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,907
    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Has a by-election seat been lined up for Carney?

    Not strictly necessary. John Turner was Canadian PM from June to September 1984 without ever winning a House of Commons seat in that timeframe, although he was a candidate for a seat in the Federal election later that year which he narrowly won although he lost nationally to Mulroney

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Turner#Prime_minister_(June–September_1984)
    Not surprised it isn't necessary but just seems a bit insulting to voters. I don't think it would happen these days in the UK.
  • HYUFD said:

    It's basically another complete waste of defence spend, like Trident but without the veneer of usefulness.

    Beyond the deterrent role, Trident is actually a fairly good guarantee nobody will ever try an amphibious invasion of the UK or Ireland from the west. Nice invasion fleet you have there Mr Trump, shame if we were to drop an ICBM on it...
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,318

    Looks like the Afghanistan cricket team are going to beat England's. That means England are out of the Champions Trophy.

    Good. Just desserts.
    Can you explain why? Its Afghanistan who shouldn't be there. Is what they are doing to women not worse than apartheid?
    Because we are validating their position in international sport by playing against them. We should not be seeking to normalise their regime.
    I understand where you are coming from, but ultimately you were attacking professional sportsmen representing their country. If the tournament allows Afghanistan in, the government doesn’t say ‘don’t go’, the ECB don’t say ‘don’t go’, then I don’t see why they should be the ones to take the stand.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,003
    I think the Ukraine war will be over shortly. Gaza won't be.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,563
    edited February 26
    ...
    Taz said:

    TimS said:

    Reflecting on that despicable Gaza video Trump posted, as I’d been wandering what it reminded me of. And I realised it is the aesthetic straight out of the coffee table book Dictators’ Homes by Peter York, mixed with a dose of Turkmenbashi.

    The book is a hideous classic. Full page spreads of the distinctly non-IKEA interiors of the presidential palaces of the likes of Mobutu, Saddam, Ceausescu and Noriega.
    There seems to be something about being a narcissistic autocrat that correlates with exceptionally bad taste and a love of lurid kitsch.

    James O’Brien said it was the maddest thing he has ever seen which, given he looks in the mirror daily, is saying something.
    James O'Brexit is great. I am fairly confident he reads PB, quite a few of his conversations follow similar thread themes to those on this august site. Although he is yet to discuss AI and lab leaks.
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,907
    S&P500 gives up its gains today and goes red and future inflation expectation in the US has dramatically increased thanks to the lunatic Trumps words on Tariffs.

    https://x.com/kobeissiletter/status/1894828939928805889?s=61
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,047

    Scott_xP said:

    Dumber than a bag of rare earth minerals...

    @faisalislam
    NEW:

    What if the EU retaliates?

    Trump: “They can’t. They can try, but they can’t… the numbers can never equal us… they can retaliate , but it cannot be a successful retaliation, because we just go cold turkey we dont buy any more and if that happens, we win”.

    I hope the EU responds or at least stands up to him
    Britain is your team, not the EU.
    The EU is still our team, we're just on the bench.
    No it isn't.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,047

    ...

    Taz said:

    TimS said:

    Reflecting on that despicable Gaza video Trump posted, as I’d been wandering what it reminded me of. And I realised it is the aesthetic straight out of the coffee table book Dictators’ Homes by Peter York, mixed with a dose of Turkmenbashi.

    The book is a hideous classic. Full page spreads of the distinctly non-IKEA interiors of the presidential palaces of the likes of Mobutu, Saddam, Ceausescu and Noriega.
    There seems to be something about being a narcissistic autocrat that correlates with exceptionally bad taste and a love of lurid kitsch.

    James O’Brien said it was the maddest thing he has ever seen which, given he looks in the mirror daily, is saying something.
    James O'Brexit is great. I am fairly confident he reads PB, quite a few of his conversations follow similar thread themes to those on this august site. Although he is yet to discuss AI and lab leaks.
    James O'Brien is the Andrew Tate of Remainers.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,376

    Scott_xP said:

    Dumber than a bag of rare earth minerals...

    @faisalislam
    NEW:

    What if the EU retaliates?

    Trump: “They can’t. They can try, but they can’t… the numbers can never equal us… they can retaliate , but it cannot be a successful retaliation, because we just go cold turkey we dont buy any more and if that happens, we win”.

    I hope the EU responds or at least stands up to him
    Britain is your team, not the EU.
    The EU is still our team, we're just on the bench.


    Come home, man.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,563

    ...

    Taz said:

    TimS said:

    Reflecting on that despicable Gaza video Trump posted, as I’d been wandering what it reminded me of. And I realised it is the aesthetic straight out of the coffee table book Dictators’ Homes by Peter York, mixed with a dose of Turkmenbashi.

    The book is a hideous classic. Full page spreads of the distinctly non-IKEA interiors of the presidential palaces of the likes of Mobutu, Saddam, Ceausescu and Noriega.
    There seems to be something about being a narcissistic autocrat that correlates with exceptionally bad taste and a love of lurid kitsch.

    James O’Brien said it was the maddest thing he has ever seen which, given he looks in the mirror daily, is saying something.
    James O'Brexit is great. I am fairly confident he reads PB, quite a few of his conversations follow similar thread themes to those on this august site. Although he is yet to discuss AI and lab leaks.
    James O'Brien is the Andrew Tate of Remainers.
    Let's hope he's not litigious.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,189
    TimS said:

    Reflecting on that despicable Gaza video Trump posted, as I’d been wandering what it reminded me of. And I realised it is the aesthetic straight out of the coffee table book Dictators’ Homes by Peter York, mixed with a dose of Turkmenbashi.

    The book is a hideous classic. Full page spreads of the distinctly non-IKEA interiors of the presidential palaces of the likes of Mobutu, Saddam, Ceausescu and Noriega.
    There seems to be something about being a narcissistic autocrat that correlates with exceptionally bad taste and a love of lurid kitsch.

    I wouldn't let it get under your skin so much - I think that was the point.

    It's certainly a very unusual thing for a President to post. I am surprised that Trump has enough of a self-deprecating side to be depicted topless with a full beer belly and man boobs.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,376
    TimS said:

    Reflecting on that despicable Gaza video Trump posted, as I’d been wandering what it reminded me of. And I realised it is the aesthetic straight out of the coffee table book Dictators’ Homes by Peter York, mixed with a dose of Turkmenbashi.

    The book is a hideous classic. Full page spreads of the distinctly non-IKEA interiors of the presidential palaces of the likes of Mobutu, Saddam, Ceausescu and Noriega.
    There seems to be something about being a narcissistic autocrat that correlates with exceptionally bad taste and a love of lurid kitsch.

    Have put that on my list. This one has few pictures, but is fascinating:

    https://www.amazon.co.uk/Talk-Devil-Riccardo-Orizio/dp/0436209993
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,189

    HYUFD said:

    It's basically another complete waste of defence spend, like Trident but without the veneer of usefulness.

    Beyond the deterrent role, Trident is actually a fairly good guarantee nobody will ever try an amphibious invasion of the UK or Ireland from the west. Nice invasion fleet you have there Mr Trump, shame if we were to drop an ICBM on it...
    We would never use Trident that way.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,836

    ...

    Taz said:

    TimS said:

    Reflecting on that despicable Gaza video Trump posted, as I’d been wandering what it reminded me of. And I realised it is the aesthetic straight out of the coffee table book Dictators’ Homes by Peter York, mixed with a dose of Turkmenbashi.

    The book is a hideous classic. Full page spreads of the distinctly non-IKEA interiors of the presidential palaces of the likes of Mobutu, Saddam, Ceausescu and Noriega.
    There seems to be something about being a narcissistic autocrat that correlates with exceptionally bad taste and a love of lurid kitsch.

    James O’Brien said it was the maddest thing he has ever seen which, given he looks in the mirror daily, is saying something.
    James O'Brexit is great. I am fairly confident he reads PB, quite a few of his conversations follow similar thread themes to those on this august site. Although he is yet to discuss AI and lab leaks.
    James O'Brien is the Andrew Tate of Remainers.
    Given Andrew Tate has been accused of pretty serious crimes, and James O'Brien has (to the best of my knowledge) not, I'm not sure that's a great comparison.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,261

    Scott_xP said:

    Dumber than a bag of rare earth minerals...

    @faisalislam
    NEW:

    What if the EU retaliates?

    Trump: “They can’t. They can try, but they can’t… the numbers can never equal us… they can retaliate , but it cannot be a successful retaliation, because we just go cold turkey we dont buy any more and if that happens, we win”.

    I hope the EU responds or at least stands up to him
    Britain is your team, not the EU.
    The EU is still our team, we're just on the bench.
    No it isn't.
    Leaving the EU hasn't stopped me feeling European any more than being in the EU made you feel European.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,836

    Foxy said:

    Chagos deal off if Trumpski doesn't like it - Lammy.

    Edit: Could get complicate as when he asks Putin what to do, Putin may need instructions from Bejing.

    So UK has completely outsourced its foreign policy to Trump now?
    Diego Garcia is valueless except as a secure US airbase in the centre of the Indian Ocean. Of course America gets a large say in it.
    https://x.com/itvpeston/status/1894803940069245413

    “If President Trump doesn’t like the deal, the deal will not go forward”

    Foreign Secretary @DavidLammy suggests that Trump has a veto on the Chagos Island deal
    Ultimately, it's their island not ours.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,261
    carnforth said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Dumber than a bag of rare earth minerals...

    @faisalislam
    NEW:

    What if the EU retaliates?

    Trump: “They can’t. They can try, but they can’t… the numbers can never equal us… they can retaliate , but it cannot be a successful retaliation, because we just go cold turkey we dont buy any more and if that happens, we win”.

    I hope the EU responds or at least stands up to him
    Britain is your team, not the EU.
    The EU is still our team, we're just on the bench.


    Come home, man.
    Yeah because thinking Brexit was a terrible mistake is such a niche opinion, right?
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,491

    Scott_xP said:

    Dumber than a bag of rare earth minerals...

    @faisalislam
    NEW:

    What if the EU retaliates?

    Trump: “They can’t. They can try, but they can’t… the numbers can never equal us… they can retaliate , but it cannot be a successful retaliation, because we just go cold turkey we dont buy any more and if that happens, we win”.

    I hope the EU responds or at least stands up to him
    Britain is your team, not the EU.
    The EU is still our team, we're just on the bench.
    The eu is your team not mine just saying
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,189

    Of course Chagos Deal will come out the defence budget, it’s a no brainer, is it even a question to ask and non answer give? All the British Tax Payer gets from Chagos deal is security and defence of the realm, not budget holiday destination, so what other budget could it possibly come out of?

    I thought you'd seen the light on the Chagos Deal - I suppose Starmer cheerleading is a bigger priority for you than facts.
    Nope. I’m not supporting the deal. I’m not supporting Starmer. I’m commenting on the politics of it today.

    1. Whether Chagos deal provides security to UK or not is irrelevant - if it becomes a deal, it’s a defence deal, is my point. The only budget it can be charged to is defence. So the purpose in asking a government keen to achieve the deal, what budget it comes from, is to extract refusal to answer.
    2. It gets refuse to answer with only possible answer - defence - is a government on the back foot, making it good work from Kemi and a strong PMQ from her.
    3. Trump will 100% back the deal, as the winners from the deal are US, India, and Mauritius, a triumvirate of like minded buddies. The only question mark is how Trump will now improve the deal further in Mauritius favour, at expense of UK. Trump likes most the previous administrations cosying with India, though looks to rebrand the good bits with his own name.
    4. UK PM at PMQs cannot publicly say the deal is actually all about furthering UK security interests, by giving US and India what they want and keeping them sweet, even though it’s the truth. That India calls off its slander and pressure on us over “no Mauritius deal”, US control of island and waters without messy ownership, India get a free stab into British colonialism.
    5. Last Chagos deal got us cheaper defence procurement from US, I’m not sure Starmer can publicly admit this bit either if part of the new deal, as it’s a rather abstract sweetener or stipend.

    That’s my take out from today’s bit of politics.
    Broadly I do give some value to this gloomy prognosis, though I cherish a lingering hope that Trump will decide to stick it to Starmer and shitcan the deal.

    It's basically another complete waste of defence spend, like Trident but without the veneer of usefulness. Next time we're being invaded, what do we do, wave the Chagos deal at them? Before trying to fire a Trident missile at them as an encore and it turns tail and heads back to Florida?
    90M a year is maintenance cost of 1 UK aircraft carrier. I agree with you Lucky, 90M a year to Mauritius seems an insane amount of money for UK taxpayer to fork out - a straightforward case of Labour government must be bonkers.

    But I’m confident my research and analysis - that this whole Chagos thing never that straightforward at any point - is spot on. But I can only prove my argument with a tick in the box from Donald Trump. In which instance I might write a header TRUMP PROVES MOONRABBIT RIGHT for those who don’t understand my crazy, gloomy analysis.

    But trying to get into Trumps brain of what he likes and don’t like is harder psychoanalysis than divining a General Election date. With Trumps brain, it’s not just the material thing about the transaction which excites, but the context it’s set in that titillates him. Like slavery can be an economic return on balance sheet, AND a power trip at the same time. This time it’s not just USA we are giving a power trip to, but joining a pair of lovers for a three in the bed.

    We know materially what happened in the 1960’s to Chagos - place was nothing to do with British Empire, but we came to be owning it and ethnically cleansing it for a US base. So what has changed in this context since doing this, that makes US not like this Chagos deal?

    My conclusions, aside from the material, the Context has to be exactly the same, or why else have both US and India been involved in making this deal, still dressed up as UK decision making, like cosplay, just an act?

    Amongst the cheesy to and thro of Westminster/Fleet Street politics that is so here and now, and where we easily get mugged of the truth, questions like, why did we do what we did in the first place, was it France said non to the US, UK said yes, we’ll do it for you for cheaper cutting edge weapons - this question never gets asked. Why do you think we came to take ownership from France in 1960s and so quickly grant all but a bit of it independence?

    Nor the question does this Chagos deal look to a future of India influence and control of the Ocean that bears its name? That doesn’t get asked either. Is this new Chagos deal what India demands for US security partnership - Or a sweetener towards that?
    But Trump wouldn't care about a US security partnership with India. He is a Palmerstonian President - no eternal allies and no perpetual enemies. So much of America's foreign policy is based on enmity to Russia, and Trump appears to be ripping that up, so why would he also be beholden to sucking up to India? And why did Starmer and the Biden administration race to get this deal through before Trump acceded? (It's the hope that gets you)
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,331

    WHY CAN'T YOU SPEAK ENGLISH? :lol:

    French is the best language in the world, swearing in French is like wiping your arse with silk.
    Utter nonsense, everyone knows English is the best language in the world!
    English is the lingua Franca after all
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,331

    WHY CAN'T YOU SPEAK ENGLISH? :lol:

    French is the best language in the world, swearing in French is like wiping your arse with silk.
    Utter nonsense, everyone knows English is the best language in the world!
    English is the lingua Franca after all
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,003

    Foxy said:

    Chagos deal off if Trumpski doesn't like it - Lammy.

    Edit: Could get complicate as when he asks Putin what to do, Putin may need instructions from Bejing.

    So UK has completely outsourced its foreign policy to Trump now?
    Diego Garcia is valueless except as a secure US airbase in the centre of the Indian Ocean. Of course America gets a large say in it.
    https://x.com/itvpeston/status/1894803940069245413

    “If President Trump doesn’t like the deal, the deal will not go forward”

    Foreign Secretary @DavidLammy suggests that Trump has a veto on the Chagos Island deal
    "We're desperately hoping Trump digs out of a 9 billion hole"
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,376

    carnforth said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Dumber than a bag of rare earth minerals...

    @faisalislam
    NEW:

    What if the EU retaliates?

    Trump: “They can’t. They can try, but they can’t… the numbers can never equal us… they can retaliate , but it cannot be a successful retaliation, because we just go cold turkey we dont buy any more and if that happens, we win”.

    I hope the EU responds or at least stands up to him
    Britain is your team, not the EU.
    The EU is still our team, we're just on the bench.


    Come home, man.
    Yeah because thinking Brexit was a terrible mistake is such a niche opinion, right?
    Nope. But thinking it will be reversed is.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,769
    edited February 26

    A question I meant to ask a few days ago and forgot.

    I see Carney had a bit of an issue during a French language election debate. Is it a requirement for all politicians above a certain level to be fluent bilingual in Canada?

    I think so. When Trudeau resigned, I looked at some of the other Canadian politicians and they all had bilingual bios in their Twitter. However what is true now is not necessarily true yesterday, so I looked at the twitter bio of some past ones
    • 2021: Con leader Erin O'Toole: Father • Husband • Proud Canadian | Père - Mari - Fier Canadien
    • 2019: Con leader Andrew Scheer: Regina—Qu'Appelle MP. 2nd Conservative Party Leader and 35th HOC Speaker. Principled Conservative. Defender of economic freedom and human rights.
    • 2015: Con leader Stephen Harper: Official Twitter account for Canada's 22nd Prime Minister. | Compte Twitter officiel du 22e Premier ministre du Canada
    • 2015: New Democratic leader Thomas Mulcair: Professeur d’université, avocat et commentateur politique University Professor, attorney and political Commentator.
    • 2011: New Democratic leader Jack Layton: (deceased)
    • 2011: Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff: Writer,historian,professor and former politician (he lost)
    Looking further afield it appears that every Canadian PM since Lester Pearson (63-68) has been at least functually bilingual, and since Jean Chrétien (93-03) has been fluently bilingual, although Chrétien's strong French accent made his English laboured.

    The key text[1] is "Since rise of Quebec nationalism (following the Quiet Revolution [circa 1960–1966], and especially the introduction of official bilingualism in the Official Languages Act in 1969 and its entrenchment in the Constitution of 1982, Canadian prime ministers (and party leaders as potential prime ministers) have been expected to be functionally bilingual by convention. An important factor in this trend has been the creation of the televised leaders' debates, which are held in separately in French and English."

    So yes, bilingualism is important for Canadian politicians. If Carney's French is below a certain level it'll be a problem.

    Notes
    [1] https://en.everybodywiki.com/List_of_Prime_Ministers_of_Canada_by_languages_spoken
    [2] https://www.quora.com/Was-there-ever-a-non-bilingual-Canadian-PM-in-recent-history
    [3] Note: Stephen Harper/Con was PM from 2006 to 2015, Justin Trudeau/Lib was PM from 2015 to 2025
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,240
    edited February 26
    Andy_JS said:
    Suella calls herself British Asian in that article, apparently only descendants of Normans and Saxons and at a push Romano British and Vikings who settled here can be English is the basis of her argument
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,907
    edited February 26

    ...

    Taz said:

    TimS said:

    Reflecting on that despicable Gaza video Trump posted, as I’d been wandering what it reminded me of. And I realised it is the aesthetic straight out of the coffee table book Dictators’ Homes by Peter York, mixed with a dose of Turkmenbashi.

    The book is a hideous classic. Full page spreads of the distinctly non-IKEA interiors of the presidential palaces of the likes of Mobutu, Saddam, Ceausescu and Noriega.
    There seems to be something about being a narcissistic autocrat that correlates with exceptionally bad taste and a love of lurid kitsch.

    James O’Brien said it was the maddest thing he has ever seen which, given he looks in the mirror daily, is saying something.
    James O'Brexit is great. I am fairly confident he reads PB, quite a few of his conversations follow similar thread themes to those on this august site. Although he is yet to discuss AI and lab leaks.
    I hope he sees this then. James, you’re a prick.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,836

    rcs1000 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Dumber than a bag of rare earth minerals...

    @faisalislam
    NEW:

    What if the EU retaliates?

    Trump: “They can’t. They can try, but they can’t… the numbers can never equal us… they can retaliate , but it cannot be a successful retaliation, because we just go cold turkey we dont buy any more and if that happens, we win”.

    I hope the EU responds or at least stands up to him
    Actually, I think the smartest thing the EU can do is simply to ignore the tariffs, and attempt to stimulate domestic demand.

    Hopefully policymakers will realise that if you can't depend on external demand (i.e. the US), then you need to generate demand at home. Doing this would (a) reduce the trade surplus, and (b) make Europeans generally happier and wealthier.

    Buy American last?

    Likely to be bad news for Tesla regardless.
    I do sometimes wonder if Trump is working to revitalize the German car industry. Tesla was wiping the floor with European car makers, because its electric vehicles were better.

    Now Tesla sales are cratering, and that is going to give VW a little breathing room to actually produce electric cars people want to buy.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,331

    Scott_xP said:

    Musk is holding his first cabinet meeting right now

    Gotta be the worst cabinet in US history.
    Gives you the shakers?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,189

    Looks like the Afghanistan cricket team are going to beat England's. That means England are out of the Champions Trophy.

    Good. Just desserts.
    Can you explain why? Its Afghanistan who shouldn't be there. Is what they are doing to women not worse than apartheid?
    Because we are validating their position in international sport by playing against them. We should not be seeking to normalise their regime.
    I understand where you are coming from, but ultimately you were attacking professional sportsmen representing their country. If the tournament allows Afghanistan in, the government doesn’t say ‘don’t go’, the ECB don’t say ‘don’t go’, then I don’t see why they should be the ones to take the stand.
    Do you agree with boycotting apartheid South Africa?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,836

    Looks like the Afghanistan cricket team are going to beat England's. That means England are out of the Champions Trophy.

    Good. Just desserts.
    Can you explain why? Its Afghanistan who shouldn't be there. Is what they are doing to women not worse than apartheid?
    Because we are validating their position in international sport by playing against them. We should not be seeking to normalise their regime.
    I understand where you are coming from, but ultimately you were attacking professional sportsmen representing their country. If the tournament allows Afghanistan in, the government doesn’t say ‘don’t go’, the ECB don’t say ‘don’t go’, then I don’t see why they should be the ones to take the stand.
    Do you agree with boycotting apartheid South Africa?
    Wait: South Africa has apartheid???

    (Actually, you can argue that they do.)
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,769

    Really sad news.

    'Buffy' and 'Gossip Girl' actress Michelle Trachtenberg dead at 39

    https://abcnews.go.com/GMA/Culture/buffy-gossip-girl-actress-michelle-trachtenberg-dead-39/story?id=119215091

    Oh, that's sad. 39 is way too young.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,606

    rcs1000 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Musk is holding his first cabinet meeting right now

    Gotta be the worst cabinet in US history.
    A tough watch but I did a few minutes. It's an autocracy now and the top guy is a shambles. What a tragedy.
    It's no more an autocracy than we had under people like Theresa May who humiliated Osborne and randomly abolished government departments leading to condemnation from Kofi Annan, Mary Robinson and Desmond Tutu.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/jul/15/decc-abolition-major-setback-for-uk-climate-change-efforts
    How do you know it was random?
    Random in the sense of capricious.

    It was an abrupt departure from the emphasis of Cameron's government. In other countries it might have been considered a kind of coup.
    Speaking of capricious, I'm intrigued by this Osbornite kick you're on at the moment. I'm not complaining - it's all part of the ebb and flow of WilliamGlennism, but I am puzzled as to this particular predilection. The man has proven himself incapable of running a museum, much less an economy.
    Hang on, Mr Osborne was not responsible for running the British Museum. He is/was the Convenor of the Trustees, whatever the BM calls it.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,318

    Looks like the Afghanistan cricket team are going to beat England's. That means England are out of the Champions Trophy.

    Good. Just desserts.
    Can you explain why? Its Afghanistan who shouldn't be there. Is what they are doing to women not worse than apartheid?
    Because we are validating their position in international sport by playing against them. We should not be seeking to normalise their regime.
    I understand where you are coming from, but ultimately you were attacking professional sportsmen representing their country. If the tournament allows Afghanistan in, the government doesn’t say ‘don’t go’, the ECB don’t say ‘don’t go’, then I don’t see why they should be the ones to take the stand.
    Do you agree with boycotting apartheid South Africa?
    Yes, and I would rather Afghanistan were banned. We have double standards everywhere in sport right now. I just think it’s unfair on the players.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,143
    rcs1000 said:

    Foxy said:

    Chagos deal off if Trumpski doesn't like it - Lammy.

    Edit: Could get complicate as when he asks Putin what to do, Putin may need instructions from Bejing.

    So UK has completely outsourced its foreign policy to Trump now?
    Diego Garcia is valueless except as a secure US airbase in the centre of the Indian Ocean. Of course America gets a large say in it.
    https://x.com/itvpeston/status/1894803940069245413

    “If President Trump doesn’t like the deal, the deal will not go forward”

    Foreign Secretary @DavidLammy suggests that Trump has a veto on the Chagos Island deal
    Ultimately, it's their island not ours.
    Are you talking about Great Britain?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,961

    carnforth said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Dumber than a bag of rare earth minerals...

    @faisalislam
    NEW:

    What if the EU retaliates?

    Trump: “They can’t. They can try, but they can’t… the numbers can never equal us… they can retaliate , but it cannot be a successful retaliation, because we just go cold turkey we dont buy any more and if that happens, we win”.

    I hope the EU responds or at least stands up to him
    Britain is your team, not the EU.
    The EU is still our team, we're just on the bench.


    Come home, man.
    Yeah because thinking Brexit was a terrible mistake is such a niche opinion, right?
    Need a big jungle for those 60%+ of UK voters to hide in.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,003
    Taz said:

    ...

    Taz said:

    TimS said:

    Reflecting on that despicable Gaza video Trump posted, as I’d been wandering what it reminded me of. And I realised it is the aesthetic straight out of the coffee table book Dictators’ Homes by Peter York, mixed with a dose of Turkmenbashi.

    The book is a hideous classic. Full page spreads of the distinctly non-IKEA interiors of the presidential palaces of the likes of Mobutu, Saddam, Ceausescu and Noriega.
    There seems to be something about being a narcissistic autocrat that correlates with exceptionally bad taste and a love of lurid kitsch.

    James O’Brien said it was the maddest thing he has ever seen which, given he looks in the mirror daily, is saying something.
    James O'Brexit is great. I am fairly confident he reads PB, quite a few of his conversations follow similar thread themes to those on this august site. Although he is yet to discuss AI and lab leaks.
    I hope he sees this then. James, you’re a prick.
    Only Lewis Goodall rivals him for smug self righteousness amongst the LBC presenters. And there's no shortage of smugness amongst the great and the good of talk show radio presenters there 😂
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,407

    Looks like the Afghanistan cricket team are going to beat England's. That means England are out of the Champions Trophy.

    Good. Just desserts.
    Can you explain why? Its Afghanistan who shouldn't be there. Is what they are doing to women not worse than apartheid?
    Because we are validating their position in international sport by playing against them. We should not be seeking to normalise their regime.
    I understand where you are coming from, but ultimately you were attacking professional sportsmen representing their country. If the tournament allows Afghanistan in, the government doesn’t say ‘don’t go’, the ECB don’t say ‘don’t go’, then I don’t see why they should be the ones to take the stand.
    Do you agree with boycotting apartheid South Africa?
    Yes, and I would rather Afghanistan were banned. We have double standards everywhere in sport right now. I just think it’s unfair on the players.
    C'mon man. We played World Cups in Russia, Qatar, and will do in Saudi if we qualify. Olympics in China and Russia too.

    That ship sailed a long time ago.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,018
    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:
    Suella calls herself British Asian in that article, apparently only descendants of Normans and Saxons and at a push Romano British and Vikings who settled here can be English is the basis of her argument
    It's just crazy, I have no idea how recently my ancestors came to this island as I know little about our heritage (there is a rumour one great grandparent had the last name schwartz changed to Black, but I have no confirmation), so how am I meant to know if my ancestry is suitably Norman/Saxon/Romano British/Viking?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,831
    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:
    Suella calls herself British Asian in that article, apparently only descendants of Normans and Saxons and at a push Romano British and Vikings who settled here can be English is the basis of her argument
    I assumed it must be because she’s from another planet?
  • Foxy said:

    Looks like the Afghanistan cricket team are going to beat England's. That means England are out of the Champions Trophy.

    Good. Just desserts.
    Can you explain why? Its Afghanistan who shouldn't be there. Is what they are doing to women not worse than apartheid?
    Because we are validating their position in international sport by playing against them. We should not be seeking to normalise their regime.
    I understand where you are coming from, but ultimately you were attacking professional sportsmen representing their country. If the tournament allows Afghanistan in, the government doesn’t say ‘don’t go’, the ECB don’t say ‘don’t go’, then I don’t see why they should be the ones to take the stand.
    Do you agree with boycotting apartheid South Africa?
    Yes, and I would rather Afghanistan were banned. We have double standards everywhere in sport right now. I just think it’s unfair on the players.
    C'mon man. We played World Cups in Russia, Qatar, and will do in Saudi if we qualify. Olympics in China and Russia too.

    That ship sailed a long time ago.
    Dictatorships and absolute monarchies should be banned from World Cups and Olympics.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,606
    edited February 26

    carnforth said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Dumber than a bag of rare earth minerals...

    @faisalislam
    NEW:

    What if the EU retaliates?

    Trump: “They can’t. They can try, but they can’t… the numbers can never equal us… they can retaliate , but it cannot be a successful retaliation, because we just go cold turkey we dont buy any more and if that happens, we win”.

    I hope the EU responds or at least stands up to him
    Britain is your team, not the EU.
    The EU is still our team, we're just on the bench.


    Come home, man.
    Yeah because thinking Brexit was a terrible mistake is such a niche opinion, right?
    Need a big jungle for those 60%+ of UK voters to hide in.
    I rather think it's the other way rouind actually. All those PB Brexiters who were going on about free trade and closer military and social alliances with - no, sorry, getting muddled, fighting for Nippon and the Shōwa Emperor I think it was, and hiding out in the pot plants at the Ritz, in the bushes in Hyde Park, etc. etc.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,331
    kjh said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Dumber than a bag of rare earth minerals...

    @faisalislam
    NEW:

    What if the EU retaliates?

    Trump: “They can’t. They can try, but they can’t… the numbers can never equal us… they can retaliate , but it cannot be a successful retaliation, because we just go cold turkey we dont buy any more and if that happens, we win”.

    This is hurting my brain. If the EU sets tariffs it reduces US sales to Europe, it doesn't impact EU sales to the US. It's Trump's tariffs that does that. What an I missing?
    I think he’s saying if the EU puts tariffs on US goods they will *ban* imports from Europe

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,831
    edited February 26
    Pulpstar said:

    Taz said:

    ...

    Taz said:

    TimS said:

    Reflecting on that despicable Gaza video Trump posted, as I’d been wandering what it reminded me of. And I realised it is the aesthetic straight out of the coffee table book Dictators’ Homes by Peter York, mixed with a dose of Turkmenbashi.

    The book is a hideous classic. Full page spreads of the distinctly non-IKEA interiors of the presidential palaces of the likes of Mobutu, Saddam, Ceausescu and Noriega.
    There seems to be something about being a narcissistic autocrat that correlates with exceptionally bad taste and a love of lurid kitsch.

    James O’Brien said it was the maddest thing he has ever seen which, given he looks in the mirror daily, is saying something.
    James O'Brexit is great. I am fairly confident he reads PB, quite a few of his conversations follow similar thread themes to those on this august site. Although he is yet to discuss AI and lab leaks.
    I hope he sees this then. James, you’re a prick.
    Only Lewis Goodall rivals him for smug self righteousness amongst the LBC presenters. And there's no shortage of smugness amongst the great and the good of talk show radio presenters there 😂
    O’B is a decent successor to the great Brian Hayes, whom I grew up with back when the L stood for London. The problem hour phone-ins they used to have at 10pm most nights were very educational to a young teenager.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,606
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:
    Suella calls herself British Asian in that article, apparently only descendants of Normans and Saxons and at a push Romano British and Vikings who settled here can be English is the basis of her argument
    It's just crazy, I have no idea how recently my ancestors came to this island as I know little about our heritage (there is a rumour one great grandparent had the last name schwartz changed to Black, but I have no confirmation), so how am I meant to know if my ancestry is suitably Norman/Saxon/Romano British/Viking?
    Unfair to those of us who are partly Neanderthal, too.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,018

    TimS said:

    Reflecting on that despicable Gaza video Trump posted, as I’d been wandering what it reminded me of. And I realised it is the aesthetic straight out of the coffee table book Dictators’ Homes by Peter York, mixed with a dose of Turkmenbashi.

    The book is a hideous classic. Full page spreads of the distinctly non-IKEA interiors of the presidential palaces of the likes of Mobutu, Saddam, Ceausescu and Noriega.
    There seems to be something about being a narcissistic autocrat that correlates with exceptionally bad taste and a love of lurid kitsch.

    It's certainly a very unusual thing for a President to post. I am surprised that Trump has enough of a self-deprecating side to be depicted topless with a full beer belly and man boobs.
    That was a bit out of character in fairness, he usually appears to be extremely vain and others feed into that. Maybe that is just a power thing.
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,907
    edited February 26
    Pulpstar said:

    Taz said:

    ...

    Taz said:

    TimS said:

    Reflecting on that despicable Gaza video Trump posted, as I’d been wandering what it reminded me of. And I realised it is the aesthetic straight out of the coffee table book Dictators’ Homes by Peter York, mixed with a dose of Turkmenbashi.

    The book is a hideous classic. Full page spreads of the distinctly non-IKEA interiors of the presidential palaces of the likes of Mobutu, Saddam, Ceausescu and Noriega.
    There seems to be something about being a narcissistic autocrat that correlates with exceptionally bad taste and a love of lurid kitsch.

    James O’Brien said it was the maddest thing he has ever seen which, given he looks in the mirror daily, is saying something.
    James O'Brexit is great. I am fairly confident he reads PB, quite a few of his conversations follow similar thread themes to those on this august site. Although he is yet to discuss AI and lab leaks.
    I hope he sees this then. James, you’re a prick.
    Only Lewis Goodall rivals him for smug self righteousness amongst the LBC presenters. And there's no shortage of smugness amongst the great and the good of talk show radio presenters there 😂
    I agree with you on Goodall, but I suspect his being a participant in the mediocre News Agents podcast is a part of that with two equally tedious, self,righteous, individuals.

    I just don’t see the point of LBC, it is not informed debate, it is just midwits inviting inarticulate members of the public on for them to then interrupt them, browbeat them, sneer at them and talk over them for having the wrong views.

    It crops up from time to time on my twitter feed. Never seems to get any better.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,018
    Ratters said:

    In addition - it's worth bearing in mind Trump is launching a trade war with nearly the whole world. Every other bloc only has a trade war with the US.

    It's a losing strategy for Trump. Once again he overestimates his own power and the willingness of other nations to be bullied.

    The USA can get its way a lot of the time of course, but he does seem not to consider that other places have publics who will only take so much, and they have politicians who will take heed.
  • HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:
    Suella calls herself British Asian in that article, apparently only descendants of Normans and Saxons and at a push Romano British and Vikings who settled here can be English is the basis of her argument
    The racism is worse than we imagined!!
This discussion has been closed.