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Ukraine matters – politicalbetting.com

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  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,914

    Leon said:

    viewcode said:

    carnforth said:

    Suspect this all gets quietly reversed if a Democrat (or a sensible Republican) wins the next election.

    No it won't. There are decades-long strategic reasons why USA is disconnecting from Europe and pitoting to the Pacific and a tripolar world. This tendency was obvious even under Biden. Trump's successors will not reverse this trend and we need to work out how to cope.
    Before Biden. Obama basically said it outright - the Pivot to the Pacific

    If you come to the Indo-Pacific - and I am right now staring across a modest chunk of it on soi Nana, Klong Toei, Bangkok - then you realise why. All the energy is here, the buzz, the ideas, the innovation, the oooomph, despite the often dire demographics

    America has a vast Pacific coastline and is very much part of this

    Europe is not. We are the museum continent. We will become the Venice of the world

    I am currently in Barcelona. New businesses are popping up here all the time, many of them started by newcomers. In our office here, we have an Italian CEO, a French CFO and a Finnish head of BD. Our client base is global. The Spanish economy is forecast to grow around 3% this year. Portuguese growth is also pretty healthy, as is Greece's. Meanwhile, the Nordics are significant global innovation hubs that enjoy among the world's highest standards of living. It's not so much Europe that has the problems as France, Germany, the UK and Italy. And their ones do not have to permanent.

    They’re all fucked by mass immigration combined with demographic decline and they are nowhere in AI
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,831
    edited February 25
    TimS said:

    New Yougov. We remain with PR vote shares in a FPTP system. Make of it what you will:

    📊 Ref lead of 1pt

    REF: 25% (-1)
    LAB: 24% (-1)
    CON: 22% (+1)
    LDEM: 16% (+2)
    GRN: 8% (-1)

    via @YouGov, 23 - 24 Feb
    Chgs. w/ 10 Feb
    britainelects.com

    Highest Lib Dem score for some time.

    SPLORG on 54%
    LLG 48 RefCon 47
    Con-Ref ratio 0.88:1

    LibDem surge.

    Sleazy, Russo- and Musk-backed Reform now on the slide….
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,898
    If LDs get into the 20s that would be fun
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,156

    Leon said:

    viewcode said:

    carnforth said:

    Suspect this all gets quietly reversed if a Democrat (or a sensible Republican) wins the next election.

    No it won't. There are decades-long strategic reasons why USA is disconnecting from Europe and pitoting to the Pacific and a tripolar world. This tendency was obvious even under Biden. Trump's successors will not reverse this trend and we need to work out how to cope.
    Before Biden. Obama basically said it outright - the Pivot to the Pacific

    If you come to the Indo-Pacific - and I am right now staring across a modest chunk of it on soi Nana, Klong Toei, Bangkok - then you realise why. All the energy is here, the buzz, the ideas, the innovation, the oooomph, despite the often dire demographics

    America has a vast Pacific coastline and is very much part of this

    Europe is not. We are the museum continent. We will become the Venice of the world

    I am currently in Barcelona. New businesses are popping up here all the time, many of them started by newcomers. In our office here, we have an Italian CEO, a French CFO and a Finnish head of BD. Our client base is global. The Spanish economy is forecast to grow around 3% this year. Portuguese growth is also pretty healthy, as is Greece's. Meanwhile, the Nordics are significant global innovation hubs that enjoy among the world's highest standards of living. It's not so much Europe that has the problems as France, Germany, the UK and Italy. And their ones do not have to permanent.
    France, Germany, the UK and Italy are the four most important countries so you can't really write them off as a minor problem.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,339
    Nigelb said:

    Amanda Pritchard quits as NHS England chief executive in shock move
    Exclusive: Departure follows meetings with Wes Streeting and unusual criticism from two Commons committees
    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2025/feb/25/amanda-pritchard-quits-nhs-england-chief-executive

    I’ve known Amanda for years. Complacent and lacking dynamism is fair comment
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,111
    IanB2 said:

    TimS said:

    New Yougov. We remain with PR vote shares in a FPTP system. Make of it what you will:

    📊 Ref lead of 1pt

    REF: 25% (-1)
    LAB: 24% (-1)
    CON: 22% (+1)
    LDEM: 16% (+2)
    GRN: 8% (-1)

    via @YouGov, 23 - 24 Feb
    Chgs. w/ 10 Feb
    britainelects.com

    Highest Lib Dem score for some time.

    SPLORG on 54%
    LLG 48 RefCon 47
    Con-Ref ratio 0.88:1

    LibDem surge.

    Sleazy, Russo-backed Reform now on the slide….
    It's the highest Lib Dem share with any pollster since May 2023, when Red & Wilt also reported a 16% share. That was the only LD share that high after the 2019 GE, until now.

    The last higher share for the party was in November 2019, during that general election campaign.
  • scampi25scampi25 Posts: 40
    So like Trump or loathe him he gets his way as the UK & EUROPE gets with his agenda. I fully support the increase from Starter but chuckle a little to think the howls from the Labour benches if It was Kemi or Nigel cutting Overseas aid. By the by surely there needs to be much more pressure now on Ireland, Spain etc to join the re-arming party with some hard cash.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,831
    HYUFD said:

    Sensible move from Starmer to increase defence spending to 2.5% and pay for it by cutting overseas aid

    Long term, cutting the aid budget would be a strategic mistake.

    But he’s flying to the US tomorrow, and needs something to offer the mango Mussolini right away. There isn’t any other way to immediately redirect the governments finances.

    So his decision is tactical, not strategic. We can only hope that a more mature, long-term perspective is taken when the government comes to review its finances as a whole.

    The big question is how to row back the massive cost from the millions of extra people that your incompetent previous government allowed to transition from unemployment to ill health/disability benefit.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,959
    edited February 25
    Increase in defence spending will be partially funded by cutting the UK’s foreign aid budget from 0.5% of gross national income to 0.3%.

    I remember the outcry of it would be end of times stuff when Tories cut foreign aid budget from 0.7% to 0.5%.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,299
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    kamski said:

    HYUFD said:

    kamski said:

    .

    kamski said:

    dixiedean said:

    MattW said:

    On the German election, as I read it the 2 party coalition will lack the supermajority of MPs necessary to do significant changes such as lifting the debt ceiling, and other measures - leaving them subject to a far left / far right blocking minority.

    Can anyone elucidate?

    There is a nascent plan to lift the ceiling before the new Parliament meets.
    I do not know the details of how that would work.
    It's kind of absurd because Scholz was insisting these last weeks that to find an extra 4 billion for Ukraine the debt brake would have to be lifted, which would take a 2 thirds majority to do constitutionally. Merz refused. After the elections the new parliament will have over a third of MPs from the AfD and the Left. Now, the Left are anyway against the debt brake (but are not in favour of increasing military aid for Ukraine, and want to reduce military spending) but are now in a position to demand concessions before lending their votes to reforming the debt brake. Yesterday they said "We will only vote if there are conditions attached. We will not vote for rearmament."

    In the old parliament (the new one starts from the 25th March at the latest), SPD+Union+Greens have more than 2 thirds, so Merz's cunning plan is to try and amend the debt brake before the new parliament is confirmed. It's an unusual move, as the Bundestag has actually finished its sessions, but maybe it works to recall it? Don't know.

    This wouldn't have happened if Merz hadn't been playing politics earlier. He was in favour of keeping the debt brake unchanged in opposition because it made governing impossible, now he wants to reform it. He was warned this would happen, but he's an arsehole.
    This article explains the situation:
    https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/politik/deutschland/bundestagswahl-union-schuldenbremse-reform-100.html

    But there are concerns. The CSU wants to stick to its election promise, as does the CDU 's parliamentary manager Thorsten Frei. Saxony's Prime Minister Michael Kretschmer believes that "if you want to change the debt rules, you have to discuss it with the Left Party." And even SPD Finance Minister Jörg Kukies is very skeptical that the plan can be implemented in such a short time:
    "In my view, it would also be a questionable political signal if constitutional changes were to be made now with an old majority."
    Given Merz wants to exclude the AfD from power anyway I don't really see the issue, he will be governing with the SPD to may as well use the old CDU and SPD and Green majority from the old parliament.

    Otherwise he would have to offer the AfD harder policies on immigration for their abstention on the debt raising to fund more arms for Ukraine
    Maybe try reading my post, or if you can't understand that read the article, which maybe explains some of it better.

    Because the German constitution since 2009 has limited the deficit to 0.35% of GDP, there will be no extra money for defence or Ukraine without cutting investments and social security. Making cuts elsewhere to fund Ukraine and the military will be quickest way to ensure a majority for the Putinist far right and left at the next election.

    In the last parliament the SPD and Greens desperately wanted to reform the debt brake, but the FDP and Union (and AfD for that matter) refused. In the case of Merz and the CDU this was pure political mischief-making because it was obvious he would need to increase the deficit if he became Chancellor. He was warned this situation was likely to arise, but carried on playing politics because man is not a serious politician but an utter arse.
    Putinist far right and left differ massively over immigration so couldn't work together anyway.

    The SPD can vote to increase the deficit solely to fund Ukraine's extra arms as the price of their support to Merz
    No the Putinist left is the BSW and is anti-immigration. Linke is the pro-immigration anti-Putin Left, though actually mostly interested in domestic issues.
    And Linke did well. People go on about the AfD but almost half as many voters went for Linke (and they beat the AfD with young people). I found that quite heartening. Narrow xenophobic nationalism is strong atm but there's nothing inevitable about it.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,914
    ON topic can anyone recommend a good TV drama?

    I’ve basically run out. I’m reduced to watching “Fallout” which won loads of Emmys but is apparently based on a meh video game and feels like it: tired sci fi, tries to be simultaneously funny, scary, witty and serious and succeeds at none

    Is “Industry” any good?!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,831
    scampi25 said:

    So like Trump or loathe him he gets his way as the UK & EUROPE gets with his agenda. I fully support the increase from Starter but chuckle a little to think the howls from the Labour benches if It was Kemi or Nigel cutting Overseas aid. By the by surely there needs to be much more pressure now on Ireland, Spain etc to join the re-arming party with some hard cash.

    Davey’s positioning as the only party not willing to surrender to the mango Mussolini may well turn out to be extraordinarily astute.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,959
    edited February 25

    Leon said:

    viewcode said:

    carnforth said:

    Suspect this all gets quietly reversed if a Democrat (or a sensible Republican) wins the next election.

    No it won't. There are decades-long strategic reasons why USA is disconnecting from Europe and pitoting to the Pacific and a tripolar world. This tendency was obvious even under Biden. Trump's successors will not reverse this trend and we need to work out how to cope.
    Before Biden. Obama basically said it outright - the Pivot to the Pacific

    If you come to the Indo-Pacific - and I am right now staring across a modest chunk of it on soi Nana, Klong Toei, Bangkok - then you realise why. All the energy is here, the buzz, the ideas, the innovation, the oooomph, despite the often dire demographics

    America has a vast Pacific coastline and is very much part of this

    Europe is not. We are the museum continent. We will become the Venice of the world

    I am currently in Barcelona. New businesses are popping up here all the time, many of them started by newcomers. In our office here, we have an Italian CEO, a French CFO and a Finnish head of BD. Our client base is global. The Spanish economy is forecast to grow around 3% this year. Portuguese growth is also pretty healthy, as is Greece's. Meanwhile, the Nordics are significant global innovation hubs that enjoy among the world's highest standards of living. It's not so much Europe that has the problems as France, Germany, the UK and Italy. And their ones do not have to permanent.

    I am sure all these foreign business people flocking to Spain, Portugal, Greece is nothing to do with the very favourable tax T&Cs their government have put in place for people to take their businesses there (at least for 5 years, then in places like Portugal then you get the full Corbynista level taxes). While in the UK.....
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,299
    Leon said:

    ON topic can anyone recommend a good TV drama?

    I’ve basically run out. I’m reduced to watching “Fallout” which won loads of Emmys but is apparently based on a meh video game and feels like it: tired sci fi, tries to be simultaneously funny, scary, witty and serious and succeeds at none

    Is “Industry” any good?!

    It's lurid soap and enjoyable with it.
  • Leon said:

    viewcode said:

    carnforth said:

    Suspect this all gets quietly reversed if a Democrat (or a sensible Republican) wins the next election.

    No it won't. There are decades-long strategic reasons why USA is disconnecting from Europe and pitoting to the Pacific and a tripolar world. This tendency was obvious even under Biden. Trump's successors will not reverse this trend and we need to work out how to cope.
    Before Biden. Obama basically said it outright - the Pivot to the Pacific

    If you come to the Indo-Pacific - and I am right now staring across a modest chunk of it on soi Nana, Klong Toei, Bangkok - then you realise why. All the energy is here, the buzz, the ideas, the innovation, the oooomph, despite the often dire demographics

    America has a vast Pacific coastline and is very much part of this

    Europe is not. We are the museum continent. We will become the Venice of the world

    I am currently in Barcelona. New businesses are popping up here all the time, many of them started by newcomers. In our office here, we have an Italian CEO, a French CFO and a Finnish head of BD. Our client base is global. The Spanish economy is forecast to grow around 3% this year. Portuguese growth is also pretty healthy, as is Greece's. Meanwhile, the Nordics are significant global innovation hubs that enjoy among the world's highest standards of living. It's not so much Europe that has the problems as France, Germany, the UK and Italy. And their ones do not have to permanent.
    France, Germany, the UK and Italy are the four most important countries so you can't really write them off as a minor problem.

    I am not. I am saying that thinking of Europe as a single, sclerotic entity doomed to become a museum is a mistake.

  • Increase in defence spending will be partially funded by cutting the UK’s foreign aid budget from 0.5% of gross national income to 0.3%.

    I remember the outcry of it would be end of times stuff when Tories cut foreign aid budget from 0.7% to 0.5%.

    The problem for Starmer is the left will be very upset and the right will not see as sufficient or quick enough

    However, public opinion generally wants cut in overseas aid
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,068
    viewcode said:

    carnforth said:

    Suspect this all gets quietly reversed if a Democrat (or a sensible Republican) wins the next election.

    No it won't. There are decades-long strategic reasons why USA is disconnecting from Europe and pitoting to the Pacific and a tripolar world. This tendency was obvious even under Biden. Trump's successors will not reverse this trend and we need to work out how to cope.
    Trump's successor, if not MAGA, will be more supportive of NATO and Europe. They may pivot to the Pacific to a degree and be happy if European countries are spending more on defence, but they're not going to be antagonistic to NATO and be voting with Russia (and Belarus and North Korea) on UN votes.
  • Increase in defence spending will be partially funded by cutting the UK’s foreign aid budget from 0.5% of gross national income to 0.3%.

    I remember the outcry of it would be end of times stuff when Tories cut foreign aid budget from 0.7% to 0.5%.

    The problem for Starmer is the left will be very upset and the right will not see as sufficient or quick enough

    However, public opinion generally wants cut in overseas aid
    Starmer has done a DOGE without Musk waving his chainsaw around...
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,872

    Increase in defence spending will be partially funded by cutting the UK’s foreign aid budget from 0.5% of gross national income to 0.3%.

    I remember the outcry of it would be end of times stuff when Tories cut foreign aid budget from 0.7% to 0.5%.

    I don't like the foreign aid being cut, but it's very much a luxury for ordinary times.

    These are not ordinary times.

    I hope they look for other ways of getting some of the advantages and influences the foreign aid budget gets us.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,914
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    ON topic can anyone recommend a good TV drama?

    I’ve basically run out. I’m reduced to watching “Fallout” which won loads of Emmys but is apparently based on a meh video game and feels like it: tired sci fi, tries to be simultaneously funny, scary, witty and serious and succeeds at none

    Is “Industry” any good?!

    It's lurid soap and enjoyable with it.
    Thanks

    That sounds quite tempting. Tho I might download it all and keep it for bingeing on my LOOOOOOOOONG flight home, which is looming (sob)

    Also tempted by “Day of the Jackal” - TV version. Good reviews
  • Leon said:

    Leon said:

    viewcode said:

    carnforth said:

    Suspect this all gets quietly reversed if a Democrat (or a sensible Republican) wins the next election.

    No it won't. There are decades-long strategic reasons why USA is disconnecting from Europe and pitoting to the Pacific and a tripolar world. This tendency was obvious even under Biden. Trump's successors will not reverse this trend and we need to work out how to cope.
    Before Biden. Obama basically said it outright - the Pivot to the Pacific

    If you come to the Indo-Pacific - and I am right now staring across a modest chunk of it on soi Nana, Klong Toei, Bangkok - then you realise why. All the energy is here, the buzz, the ideas, the innovation, the oooomph, despite the often dire demographics

    America has a vast Pacific coastline and is very much part of this

    Europe is not. We are the museum continent. We will become the Venice of the world

    I am currently in Barcelona. New businesses are popping up here all the time, many of them started by newcomers. In our office here, we have an Italian CEO, a French CFO and a Finnish head of BD. Our client base is global. The Spanish economy is forecast to grow around 3% this year. Portuguese growth is also pretty healthy, as is Greece's. Meanwhile, the Nordics are significant global innovation hubs that enjoy among the world's highest standards of living. It's not so much Europe that has the problems as France, Germany, the UK and Italy. And their ones do not have to permanent.

    They’re all fucked by mass immigration combined with demographic decline and they are nowhere in AI

    This is just comfort blanket stuff for lonely, right-wing, declinists. Spain saw 3.2% growth last year on the back of high immigration, much of it from Latin America. There are lots of ways to make AI work. Development is one. Implementation is another. And AI is not everything.

  • IanB2 said:

    scampi25 said:

    So like Trump or loathe him he gets his way as the UK & EUROPE gets with his agenda. I fully support the increase from Starter but chuckle a little to think the howls from the Labour benches if It was Kemi or Nigel cutting Overseas aid. By the by surely there needs to be much more pressure now on Ireland, Spain etc to join the re-arming party with some hard cash.

    Davey’s positioning as the only party not willing to surrender to the mango Mussolini may well turn out to be extraordinarily astute.
    Not sure "astute" is quite the right word as it's a pretty obvious position for him. But it's certainly fallen kindly for the Lib Dems. Being anti-Trump is popular in the UK, the Tories and RefUK can't do it ideologically, and Labour can't do it as they need to deal with Trump in office.
  • Exposed: Labour peer’s involvement in apparent cash-for-access venture
    Lord David Evans of Watford said ‘our mates now have senior jobs’ and advised on how to approach Angela Rayner

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/feb/25/exposed-labour-peer-involvement-in-what-appears-to-be-cash-for-access-venture

    Enterprising Labour peer finds new source of funds for MoD.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,914
    scampi25 said:

    So like Trump or loathe him he gets his way as the UK & EUROPE gets with his agenda. I fully support the increase from Starter but chuckle a little to think the howls from the Labour benches if It was Kemi or Nigel cutting Overseas aid. By the by surely there needs to be much more pressure now on Ireland, Spain etc to join the re-arming party with some hard cash.

    Indeed. IRELAND

    It would be just about tolerable if they were still a skint rainy ultra-Catholic shit-hole, but Ireland has grown rich and fat with parasitic corporate tax rates - almost stealing from the rest of Europe - and STILL Ireland refuses to front up even 1% for defense of the west, and they bleat about Israel and shine their frigging haloes. They can REALLY afford it. Fuck em
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,914

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    viewcode said:

    carnforth said:

    Suspect this all gets quietly reversed if a Democrat (or a sensible Republican) wins the next election.

    No it won't. There are decades-long strategic reasons why USA is disconnecting from Europe and pitoting to the Pacific and a tripolar world. This tendency was obvious even under Biden. Trump's successors will not reverse this trend and we need to work out how to cope.
    Before Biden. Obama basically said it outright - the Pivot to the Pacific

    If you come to the Indo-Pacific - and I am right now staring across a modest chunk of it on soi Nana, Klong Toei, Bangkok - then you realise why. All the energy is here, the buzz, the ideas, the innovation, the oooomph, despite the often dire demographics

    America has a vast Pacific coastline and is very much part of this

    Europe is not. We are the museum continent. We will become the Venice of the world

    I am currently in Barcelona. New businesses are popping up here all the time, many of them started by newcomers. In our office here, we have an Italian CEO, a French CFO and a Finnish head of BD. Our client base is global. The Spanish economy is forecast to grow around 3% this year. Portuguese growth is also pretty healthy, as is Greece's. Meanwhile, the Nordics are significant global innovation hubs that enjoy among the world's highest standards of living. It's not so much Europe that has the problems as France, Germany, the UK and Italy. And their ones do not have to permanent.

    They’re all fucked by mass immigration combined with demographic decline and they are nowhere in AI

    This is just comfort blanket stuff for lonely, right-wing, declinists. Spain saw 3.2% growth last year on the back of high immigration, much of it from Latin America. There are lots of ways to make AI work. Development is one. Implementation is another. And AI is not everything.

    it is everything
  • Exposed: Labour peer’s involvement in apparent cash-for-access venture
    Lord David Evans of Watford said ‘our mates now have senior jobs’ and advised on how to approach Angela Rayner

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/feb/25/exposed-labour-peer-involvement-in-what-appears-to-be-cash-for-access-venture

    Enterprising Labour peer finds new source of funds for MoD.

    New lot same as the old lot.
  • If LDs get into the 20s that would be fun

    All at 25% would be hilarious
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,912
    edited February 25

    James Carville on what Dems should do now. "play dead"

    "The Army has a term for this: “tactical pause.” It’s a vision move — get out of the hour-to-hour, day-to-day combat where one side (ours) is largely playing defense and struggling to defend politically charged positions (like explaining D.E.I. or persuading voters to care about foreign aid), and take time to regroup, look forward and make decisions about where we want to get to over the next two years."

    Voters will soon be sick of Trump/Musk 2.0:

    "The people did not vote for the Department of Education to be obliterated — they voted for lower prices for eggs and milk."

    https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/25/opinion/democrats-trump-congress.html

    Ridiculous. The Democrats need to face up to the reasons why they lost, not bury their heads in the sand. The truth is if Vance is the presidential candidate at the next election he'll probably win easily, and one of the main reasons will be because the Dems have decided not to learn anything.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,299
    edited February 25

    Leon said:

    viewcode said:

    carnforth said:

    Suspect this all gets quietly reversed if a Democrat (or a sensible Republican) wins the next election.

    No it won't. There are decades-long strategic reasons why USA is disconnecting from Europe and pitoting to the Pacific and a tripolar world. This tendency was obvious even under Biden. Trump's successors will not reverse this trend and we need to work out how to cope.
    Before Biden. Obama basically said it outright - the Pivot to the Pacific

    If you come to the Indo-Pacific - and I am right now staring across a modest chunk of it on soi Nana, Klong Toei, Bangkok - then you realise why. All the energy is here, the buzz, the ideas, the innovation, the oooomph, despite the often dire demographics

    America has a vast Pacific coastline and is very much part of this

    Europe is not. We are the museum continent. We will become the Venice of the world

    I am currently in Barcelona. New businesses are popping up here all the time, many of them started by newcomers. In our office here, we have an Italian CEO, a French CFO and a Finnish head of BD. Our client base is global. The Spanish economy is forecast to grow around 3% this year. Portuguese growth is also pretty healthy, as is Greece's. Meanwhile, the Nordics are significant global innovation hubs that enjoy among the world's highest standards of living. It's not so much Europe that has the problems as France, Germany, the UK and Italy. And their ones do not have to permanent.
    France, Germany, the UK and Italy are the four most important countries so you can't really write them off as a minor problem.

    I am not. I am saying that thinking of Europe as a single, sclerotic entity doomed to become a museum is a mistake.
    It's not a matter of being "doomed" anyway. Different parts of the world have their moments over time. Worse would be if they didn't and the most developed countries got relatively richer in perpetuity. I have no problem with the prospect of other parts of the world catching up on living standards. Far more important is to avoid wars, protect the planet, and reduce inequality.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,278
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sensible move from Starmer to increase defence spending to 2.5% and pay for it by cutting overseas aid

    Long term, cutting the aid budget would be a strategic mistake.

    But he’s flying to the US tomorrow, and needs something to offer the mango Mussolini right away. There isn’t any other way to immediately redirect the governments finances.

    So his decision is tactical, not strategic. We can only hope that a more mature, long-term perspective is taken when the government comes to review its finances as a whole.

    The big question is how to row back the massive cost from the millions of extra people that your incompetent previous government allowed to transition from unemployment to ill health/disability benefit.
    Long term Europe needs to fund more of its own defence, including us, so this was a sensible move.

    On your final paragraph you could of course scrap ESA and PIP except for those with serious disabilities, eg paralysed and make everyone else claim universal credit which if not applying for jobs you lose
  • IanB2 said:

    TimS said:

    New Yougov. We remain with PR vote shares in a FPTP system. Make of it what you will:

    📊 Ref lead of 1pt

    REF: 25% (-1)
    LAB: 24% (-1)
    CON: 22% (+1)
    LDEM: 16% (+2)
    GRN: 8% (-1)

    via @YouGov, 23 - 24 Feb
    Chgs. w/ 10 Feb
    britainelects.com

    Highest Lib Dem score for some time.

    SPLORG on 54%
    LLG 48 RefCon 47
    Con-Ref ratio 0.88:1

    LibDem surge.

    Sleazy, Russo-backed Reform now on the slide….
    It's the highest Lib Dem share with any pollster since May 2023, when Red & Wilt also reported a 16% share. That was the only LD share that high after the 2019 GE, until now.

    The last higher share for the party was in November 2019, during that general election campaign.
    [looks nervously at my 2025 prediction competition entry of 16% being the max LD poll this year]
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,199
    HYUFD said:

    Sensible move from Starmer to increase defence spending to 2.5% and pay for it by cutting overseas aid

    I agree. Not much for Reform or the Tories to work with. Well done Starmer.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,278
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    kamski said:

    HYUFD said:

    kamski said:

    .

    kamski said:

    dixiedean said:

    MattW said:

    On the German election, as I read it the 2 party coalition will lack the supermajority of MPs necessary to do significant changes such as lifting the debt ceiling, and other measures - leaving them subject to a far left / far right blocking minority.

    Can anyone elucidate?

    There is a nascent plan to lift the ceiling before the new Parliament meets.
    I do not know the details of how that would work.
    It's kind of absurd because Scholz was insisting these last weeks that to find an extra 4 billion for Ukraine the debt brake would have to be lifted, which would take a 2 thirds majority to do constitutionally. Merz refused. After the elections the new parliament will have over a third of MPs from the AfD and the Left. Now, the Left are anyway against the debt brake (but are not in favour of increasing military aid for Ukraine, and want to reduce military spending) but are now in a position to demand concessions before lending their votes to reforming the debt brake. Yesterday they said "We will only vote if there are conditions attached. We will not vote for rearmament."

    In the old parliament (the new one starts from the 25th March at the latest), SPD+Union+Greens have more than 2 thirds, so Merz's cunning plan is to try and amend the debt brake before the new parliament is confirmed. It's an unusual move, as the Bundestag has actually finished its sessions, but maybe it works to recall it? Don't know.

    This wouldn't have happened if Merz hadn't been playing politics earlier. He was in favour of keeping the debt brake unchanged in opposition because it made governing impossible, now he wants to reform it. He was warned this would happen, but he's an arsehole.
    This article explains the situation:
    https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/politik/deutschland/bundestagswahl-union-schuldenbremse-reform-100.html

    But there are concerns. The CSU wants to stick to its election promise, as does the CDU 's parliamentary manager Thorsten Frei. Saxony's Prime Minister Michael Kretschmer believes that "if you want to change the debt rules, you have to discuss it with the Left Party." And even SPD Finance Minister Jörg Kukies is very skeptical that the plan can be implemented in such a short time:
    "In my view, it would also be a questionable political signal if constitutional changes were to be made now with an old majority."
    Given Merz wants to exclude the AfD from power anyway I don't really see the issue, he will be governing with the SPD to may as well use the old CDU and SPD and Green majority from the old parliament.

    Otherwise he would have to offer the AfD harder policies on immigration for their abstention on the debt raising to fund more arms for Ukraine
    Maybe try reading my post, or if you can't understand that read the article, which maybe explains some of it better.

    Because the German constitution since 2009 has limited the deficit to 0.35% of GDP, there will be no extra money for defence or Ukraine without cutting investments and social security. Making cuts elsewhere to fund Ukraine and the military will be quickest way to ensure a majority for the Putinist far right and left at the next election.

    In the last parliament the SPD and Greens desperately wanted to reform the debt brake, but the FDP and Union (and AfD for that matter) refused. In the case of Merz and the CDU this was pure political mischief-making because it was obvious he would need to increase the deficit if he became Chancellor. He was warned this situation was likely to arise, but carried on playing politics because man is not a serious politician but an utter arse.
    Putinist far right and left differ massively over immigration so couldn't work together anyway.

    The SPD can vote to increase the deficit solely to fund Ukraine's extra arms as the price of their support to Merz
    No the Putinist left is the BSW and is anti-immigration. Linke is the pro-immigration anti-Putin Left, though actually mostly interested in domestic issues.
    And Linke won Bundestag seats unlike BSW
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,068
    Andy_JS said:

    James Carville on what Dems should do now. "play dead"

    "The Army has a term for this: “tactical pause.” It’s a vision move — get out of the hour-to-hour, day-to-day combat where one side (ours) is largely playing defense and struggling to defend politically charged positions (like explaining D.E.I. or persuading voters to care about foreign aid), and take time to regroup, look forward and make decisions about where we want to get to over the next two years."

    Voters will soon be sick of Trump/Musk 2.0:

    "The people did not vote for the Department of Education to be obliterated — they voted for lower prices for eggs and milk."

    https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/25/opinion/democrats-trump-congress.html

    Ridiculous. The Democrats need to face up to the reasons why they lost, not bury their heads in the sand. The truth is if Vance is the presidential candidate at the next election he'll probably win easily, and one of the main reasons will be because the Dems have decided not to learn anything.
    The 2024 election was pretty close. Three and a half years is a long time in politics. It would be foolhardy, I suggest, to be making predictions about 2028.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,278
    kamski said:

    HYUFD said:

    kamski said:

    HYUFD said:

    kamski said:

    .

    kamski said:

    dixiedean said:

    MattW said:

    On the German election, as I read it the 2 party coalition will lack the supermajority of MPs necessary to do significant changes such as lifting the debt ceiling, and other measures - leaving them subject to a far left / far right blocking minority.

    Can anyone elucidate?

    There is a nascent plan to lift the ceiling before the new Parliament meets.
    I do not know the details of how that would work.
    It's kind of absurd because Scholz was insisting these last weeks that to find an extra 4 billion for Ukraine the debt brake would have to be lifted, which would take a 2 thirds majority to do constitutionally. Merz refused. After the elections the new parliament will have over a third of MPs from the AfD and the Left. Now, the Left are anyway against the debt brake (but are not in favour of increasing military aid for Ukraine, and want to reduce military spending) but are now in a position to demand concessions before lending their votes to reforming the debt brake. Yesterday they said "We will only vote if there are conditions attached. We will not vote for rearmament."

    In the old parliament (the new one starts from the 25th March at the latest), SPD+Union+Greens have more than 2 thirds, so Merz's cunning plan is to try and amend the debt brake before the new parliament is confirmed. It's an unusual move, as the Bundestag has actually finished its sessions, but maybe it works to recall it? Don't know.

    This wouldn't have happened if Merz hadn't been playing politics earlier. He was in favour of keeping the debt brake unchanged in opposition because it made governing impossible, now he wants to reform it. He was warned this would happen, but he's an arsehole.
    This article explains the situation:
    https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/politik/deutschland/bundestagswahl-union-schuldenbremse-reform-100.html

    But there are concerns. The CSU wants to stick to its election promise, as does the CDU 's parliamentary manager Thorsten Frei. Saxony's Prime Minister Michael Kretschmer believes that "if you want to change the debt rules, you have to discuss it with the Left Party." And even SPD Finance Minister Jörg Kukies is very skeptical that the plan can be implemented in such a short time:
    "In my view, it would also be a questionable political signal if constitutional changes were to be made now with an old majority."
    Given Merz wants to exclude the AfD from power anyway I don't really see the issue, he will be governing with the SPD to may as well use the old CDU and SPD and Green majority from the old parliament.

    Otherwise he would have to offer the AfD harder policies on immigration for their abstention on the debt raising to fund more arms for Ukraine
    Maybe try reading my post, or if you can't understand that read the article, which maybe explains some of it better.

    Because the German constitution since 2009 has limited the deficit to 0.35% of GDP, there will be no extra money for defence or Ukraine without cutting investments and social security. Making cuts elsewhere to fund Ukraine and the military will be quickest way to ensure a majority for the Putinist far right and left at the next election.

    In the last parliament the SPD and Greens desperately wanted to reform the debt brake, but the FDP and Union (and AfD for that matter) refused. In the case of Merz and the CDU this was pure political mischief-making because it was obvious he would need to increase the deficit if he became Chancellor. He was warned this situation was likely to arise, but carried on playing politics because man is not a serious politician but an utter arse.
    Putinist far right and left differ massively over immigration so couldn't work together anyway.

    The SPD can vote to increase the deficit solely to fund Ukraine's extra arms as the price of their support to Merz
    HYUFD said:

    kamski said:

    HYUFD said:

    kamski said:

    .

    kamski said:

    dixiedean said:

    MattW said:

    On the German election, as I read it the 2 party coalition will lack the supermajority of MPs necessary to do significant changes such as lifting the debt ceiling, and other measures - leaving them subject to a far left / far right blocking minority.

    Can anyone elucidate?

    There is a nascent plan to lift the ceiling before the new Parliament meets.
    I do not know the details of how that would work.
    It's kind of absurd because Scholz was insisting these last weeks that to find an extra 4 billion for Ukraine the debt brake would have to be lifted, which would take a 2 thirds majority to do constitutionally. Merz refused. After the elections the new parliament will have over a third of MPs from the AfD and the Left. Now, the Left are anyway against the debt brake (but are not in favour of increasing military aid for Ukraine, and want to reduce military spending) but are now in a position to demand concessions before lending their votes to reforming the debt brake. Yesterday they said "We will only vote if there are conditions attached. We will not vote for rearmament."

    In the old parliament (the new one starts from the 25th March at the latest), SPD+Union+Greens have more than 2 thirds, so Merz's cunning plan is to try and amend the debt brake before the new parliament is confirmed. It's an unusual move, as the Bundestag has actually finished its sessions, but maybe it works to recall it? Don't know.

    This wouldn't have happened if Merz hadn't been playing politics earlier. He was in favour of keeping the debt brake unchanged in opposition because it made governing impossible, now he wants to reform it. He was warned this would happen, but he's an arsehole.
    This article explains the situation:
    https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/politik/deutschland/bundestagswahl-union-schuldenbremse-reform-100.html

    But there are concerns. The CSU wants to stick to its election promise, as does the CDU 's parliamentary manager Thorsten Frei. Saxony's Prime Minister Michael Kretschmer believes that "if you want to change the debt rules, you have to discuss it with the Left Party." And even SPD Finance Minister Jörg Kukies is very skeptical that the plan can be implemented in such a short time:
    "In my view, it would also be a questionable political signal if constitutional changes were to be made now with an old majority."
    Given Merz wants to exclude the AfD from power anyway I don't really see the issue, he will be governing with the SPD to may as well use the old CDU and SPD and Green majority from the old parliament.

    Otherwise he would have to offer the AfD harder policies on immigration for their abstention on the debt raising to fund more arms for Ukraine
    Maybe try reading my post, or if you can't understand that read the article, which maybe explains some of it better.

    Because the German constitution since 2009 has limited the deficit to 0.35% of GDP, there will be no extra money for defence or Ukraine without cutting investments and social security. Making cuts elsewhere to fund Ukraine and the military will be quickest way to ensure a majority for the Putinist far right and left at the next election.

    In the last parliament the SPD and Greens desperately wanted to reform the debt brake, but the FDP and Union (and AfD for that matter) refused. In the case of Merz and the CDU this was pure political mischief-making because it was obvious he would need to increase the deficit if he became Chancellor. He was warned this situation was likely to arise, but carried on playing politics because man is not a serious politician but an utter arse.
    Putinist far right and left differ massively over immigration so couldn't work together anyway.

    The SPD can vote to increase the deficit solely to fund Ukraine's extra arms as the price of their support to Merz
    The problem is the constitutional limit on the deficit of 0.35% of GDP.

    This the whole issue being talked about. God alone knows what you think you are on about.
    Which can be changed with 2/3 majority if SPD and Greens give it in return for no social security cuts
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,432

    Leon said:

    viewcode said:

    carnforth said:

    Suspect this all gets quietly reversed if a Democrat (or a sensible Republican) wins the next election.

    No it won't. There are decades-long strategic reasons why USA is disconnecting from Europe and pitoting to the Pacific and a tripolar world. This tendency was obvious even under Biden. Trump's successors will not reverse this trend and we need to work out how to cope.
    Before Biden. Obama basically said it outright - the Pivot to the Pacific

    If you come to the Indo-Pacific - and I am right now staring across a modest chunk of it on soi Nana, Klong Toei, Bangkok - then you realise why. All the energy is here, the buzz, the ideas, the innovation, the oooomph, despite the often dire demographics

    America has a vast Pacific coastline and is very much part of this

    Europe is not. We are the museum continent. We will become the Venice of the world

    I am currently in Barcelona. New businesses are popping up here all the time, many of them started by newcomers. In our office here, we have an Italian CEO, a French CFO and a Finnish head of BD. Our client base is global. The Spanish economy is forecast to grow around 3% this year. Portuguese growth is also pretty healthy, as is Greece's. Meanwhile, the Nordics are significant global innovation hubs that enjoy among the world's highest standards of living. It's not so much Europe that has the problems as France, Germany, the UK and Italy. And their ones do not have to permanent.

    I am sure all these foreign business people flocking to Spain, Portugal, Greece is nothing to do with the very favourable tax T&Cs their government have put in place for people to take their businesses there (at least for 5 years, then in places like Portugal then you get the full Corbynista level taxes). While in the UK.....
    Spain is also very open to immigration.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/feb/18/how-spains-radically-different-approach-to-migration-helped-its-economy-soar?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

    A lot of it is from Latin America.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,299
    scampi25 said:

    So like Trump or loathe him he gets his way as the UK & EUROPE gets with his agenda. I fully support the increase from Starter but chuckle a little to think the howls from the Labour benches if It was Kemi or Nigel cutting Overseas aid. By the by surely there needs to be much more pressure now on Ireland, Spain etc to join the re-arming party with some hard cash.

    "Loathe" is the way to go.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,163
    HYUFD said:

    kamski said:

    HYUFD said:

    kamski said:

    HYUFD said:

    kamski said:

    .

    kamski said:

    dixiedean said:

    MattW said:

    On the German election, as I read it the 2 party coalition will lack the supermajority of MPs necessary to do significant changes such as lifting the debt ceiling, and other measures - leaving them subject to a far left / far right blocking minority.

    Can anyone elucidate?

    There is a nascent plan to lift the ceiling before the new Parliament meets.
    I do not know the details of how that would work.
    It's kind of absurd because Scholz was insisting these last weeks that to find an extra 4 billion for Ukraine the debt brake would have to be lifted, which would take a 2 thirds majority to do constitutionally. Merz refused. After the elections the new parliament will have over a third of MPs from the AfD and the Left. Now, the Left are anyway against the debt brake (but are not in favour of increasing military aid for Ukraine, and want to reduce military spending) but are now in a position to demand concessions before lending their votes to reforming the debt brake. Yesterday they said "We will only vote if there are conditions attached. We will not vote for rearmament."

    In the old parliament (the new one starts from the 25th March at the latest), SPD+Union+Greens have more than 2 thirds, so Merz's cunning plan is to try and amend the debt brake before the new parliament is confirmed. It's an unusual move, as the Bundestag has actually finished its sessions, but maybe it works to recall it? Don't know.

    This wouldn't have happened if Merz hadn't been playing politics earlier. He was in favour of keeping the debt brake unchanged in opposition because it made governing impossible, now he wants to reform it. He was warned this would happen, but he's an arsehole.
    This article explains the situation:
    https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/politik/deutschland/bundestagswahl-union-schuldenbremse-reform-100.html

    But there are concerns. The CSU wants to stick to its election promise, as does the CDU 's parliamentary manager Thorsten Frei. Saxony's Prime Minister Michael Kretschmer believes that "if you want to change the debt rules, you have to discuss it with the Left Party." And even SPD Finance Minister Jörg Kukies is very skeptical that the plan can be implemented in such a short time:
    "In my view, it would also be a questionable political signal if constitutional changes were to be made now with an old majority."
    Given Merz wants to exclude the AfD from power anyway I don't really see the issue, he will be governing with the SPD to may as well use the old CDU and SPD and Green majority from the old parliament.

    Otherwise he would have to offer the AfD harder policies on immigration for their abstention on the debt raising to fund more arms for Ukraine
    Maybe try reading my post, or if you can't understand that read the article, which maybe explains some of it better.

    Because the German constitution since 2009 has limited the deficit to 0.35% of GDP, there will be no extra money for defence or Ukraine without cutting investments and social security. Making cuts elsewhere to fund Ukraine and the military will be quickest way to ensure a majority for the Putinist far right and left at the next election.

    In the last parliament the SPD and Greens desperately wanted to reform the debt brake, but the FDP and Union (and AfD for that matter) refused. In the case of Merz and the CDU this was pure political mischief-making because it was obvious he would need to increase the deficit if he became Chancellor. He was warned this situation was likely to arise, but carried on playing politics because man is not a serious politician but an utter arse.
    Putinist far right and left differ massively over immigration so couldn't work together anyway.

    The SPD can vote to increase the deficit solely to fund Ukraine's extra arms as the price of their support to Merz
    HYUFD said:

    kamski said:

    HYUFD said:

    kamski said:

    .

    kamski said:

    dixiedean said:

    MattW said:

    On the German election, as I read it the 2 party coalition will lack the supermajority of MPs necessary to do significant changes such as lifting the debt ceiling, and other measures - leaving them subject to a far left / far right blocking minority.

    Can anyone elucidate?

    There is a nascent plan to lift the ceiling before the new Parliament meets.
    I do not know the details of how that would work.
    It's kind of absurd because Scholz was insisting these last weeks that to find an extra 4 billion for Ukraine the debt brake would have to be lifted, which would take a 2 thirds majority to do constitutionally. Merz refused. After the elections the new parliament will have over a third of MPs from the AfD and the Left. Now, the Left are anyway against the debt brake (but are not in favour of increasing military aid for Ukraine, and want to reduce military spending) but are now in a position to demand concessions before lending their votes to reforming the debt brake. Yesterday they said "We will only vote if there are conditions attached. We will not vote for rearmament."

    In the old parliament (the new one starts from the 25th March at the latest), SPD+Union+Greens have more than 2 thirds, so Merz's cunning plan is to try and amend the debt brake before the new parliament is confirmed. It's an unusual move, as the Bundestag has actually finished its sessions, but maybe it works to recall it? Don't know.

    This wouldn't have happened if Merz hadn't been playing politics earlier. He was in favour of keeping the debt brake unchanged in opposition because it made governing impossible, now he wants to reform it. He was warned this would happen, but he's an arsehole.
    This article explains the situation:
    https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/politik/deutschland/bundestagswahl-union-schuldenbremse-reform-100.html

    But there are concerns. The CSU wants to stick to its election promise, as does the CDU 's parliamentary manager Thorsten Frei. Saxony's Prime Minister Michael Kretschmer believes that "if you want to change the debt rules, you have to discuss it with the Left Party." And even SPD Finance Minister Jörg Kukies is very skeptical that the plan can be implemented in such a short time:
    "In my view, it would also be a questionable political signal if constitutional changes were to be made now with an old majority."
    Given Merz wants to exclude the AfD from power anyway I don't really see the issue, he will be governing with the SPD to may as well use the old CDU and SPD and Green majority from the old parliament.

    Otherwise he would have to offer the AfD harder policies on immigration for their abstention on the debt raising to fund more arms for Ukraine
    Maybe try reading my post, or if you can't understand that read the article, which maybe explains some of it better.

    Because the German constitution since 2009 has limited the deficit to 0.35% of GDP, there will be no extra money for defence or Ukraine without cutting investments and social security. Making cuts elsewhere to fund Ukraine and the military will be quickest way to ensure a majority for the Putinist far right and left at the next election.

    In the last parliament the SPD and Greens desperately wanted to reform the debt brake, but the FDP and Union (and AfD for that matter) refused. In the case of Merz and the CDU this was pure political mischief-making because it was obvious he would need to increase the deficit if he became Chancellor. He was warned this situation was likely to arise, but carried on playing politics because man is not a serious politician but an utter arse.
    Putinist far right and left differ massively over immigration so couldn't work together anyway.

    The SPD can vote to increase the deficit solely to fund Ukraine's extra arms as the price of their support to Merz
    The problem is the constitutional limit on the deficit of 0.35% of GDP.

    This the whole issue being talked about. God alone knows what you think you are on about.
    Which can be changed with 2/3 majority if SPD and Greens give it in return for no social security cuts
    It COULD have been changed with the outgoing parliament. There is no 2/3 majority in the incoming parliament. What bit of this are you having difficulty understanding?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,278
    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    viewcode said:

    carnforth said:

    Suspect this all gets quietly reversed if a Democrat (or a sensible Republican) wins the next election.

    No it won't. There are decades-long strategic reasons why USA is disconnecting from Europe and pitoting to the Pacific and a tripolar world. This tendency was obvious even under Biden. Trump's successors will not reverse this trend and we need to work out how to cope.
    Before Biden. Obama basically said it outright - the Pivot to the Pacific

    If you come to the Indo-Pacific - and I am right now staring across a modest chunk of it on soi Nana, Klong Toei, Bangkok - then you realise why. All the energy is here, the buzz, the ideas, the innovation, the oooomph, despite the often dire demographics

    America has a vast Pacific coastline and is very much part of this

    Europe is not. We are the museum continent. We will become the Venice of the world

    I am currently in Barcelona. New businesses are popping up here all the time, many of them started by newcomers. In our office here, we have an Italian CEO, a French CFO and a Finnish head of BD. Our client base is global. The Spanish economy is forecast to grow around 3% this year. Portuguese growth is also pretty healthy, as is Greece's. Meanwhile, the Nordics are significant global innovation hubs that enjoy among the world's highest standards of living. It's not so much Europe that has the problems as France, Germany, the UK and Italy. And their ones do not have to permanent.

    I am sure all these foreign business people flocking to Spain, Portugal, Greece is nothing to do with the very favourable tax T&Cs their government have put in place for people to take their businesses there (at least for 5 years, then in places like Portugal then you get the full Corbynista level taxes). While in the UK.....
    Spain is also very open to immigration.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/feb/18/how-spains-radically-different-approach-to-migration-helped-its-economy-soar?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

    A lot of it is from Latin America.
    For now as it has a Socialist government but the conservative PP has a clear poll lead with far right Vox third

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Spanish_general_election
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,402
    edited February 25

    HYUFD said:

    Sensible move from Starmer to increase defence spending to 2.5% and pay for it by cutting overseas aid

    Yes, Sir Keir has played a blinder there. It's regrettable that our soft power through overseas aid will take a hit...
    The soft power of international aid is largely or entirely a myth, generated by the aid-industrial complex to justify raiding the public purse. Look at our top aid recipients in 2019 by country:

    - Pakistan
    - Ethiopia
    - Afghanistan
    - Yemen
    - Nigeria
    - Bangladesh
    - Syria

    Are any of those countries particularly friendly to this one? Have any of them particularly gone out of their way to make our lives easier?

    America poured $1 trillion into Afghanistan over a couple of decades. But once the threat of US hard power was gone thanks to Biden's (and Trump's) disastrous incompetence, the Taliban were back in a couple of days.

    It's that hard power that gets you influence in these countries. Giving billions away just makes you look naive and stupid. There is doubtless a humanitarian case for aid, to make people feel better and avoid pictures of starving children or people with easily curable diseases on the news, but I don't think we should expect any goodwill or influence in return.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,156
    Robert Peston doesn't understand 'percentage points' and seems to think it's just a more flowery way of saying percent.

    https://x.com/Peston/status/1894391756470263936

    Trump and Musk are all but eliminating their equivalent, USAID. Now the first left-of-centre British government for 14 years is reducing overseas aid spending by a jaw-dropping 40 percentage points.
  • Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    viewcode said:

    carnforth said:

    Suspect this all gets quietly reversed if a Democrat (or a sensible Republican) wins the next election.

    No it won't. There are decades-long strategic reasons why USA is disconnecting from Europe and pitoting to the Pacific and a tripolar world. This tendency was obvious even under Biden. Trump's successors will not reverse this trend and we need to work out how to cope.
    Before Biden. Obama basically said it outright - the Pivot to the Pacific

    If you come to the Indo-Pacific - and I am right now staring across a modest chunk of it on soi Nana, Klong Toei, Bangkok - then you realise why. All the energy is here, the buzz, the ideas, the innovation, the oooomph, despite the often dire demographics

    America has a vast Pacific coastline and is very much part of this

    Europe is not. We are the museum continent. We will become the Venice of the world

    I am currently in Barcelona. New businesses are popping up here all the time, many of them started by newcomers. In our office here, we have an Italian CEO, a French CFO and a Finnish head of BD. Our client base is global. The Spanish economy is forecast to grow around 3% this year. Portuguese growth is also pretty healthy, as is Greece's. Meanwhile, the Nordics are significant global innovation hubs that enjoy among the world's highest standards of living. It's not so much Europe that has the problems as France, Germany, the UK and Italy. And their ones do not have to permanent.

    I am sure all these foreign business people flocking to Spain, Portugal, Greece is nothing to do with the very favourable tax T&Cs their government have put in place for people to take their businesses there (at least for 5 years, then in places like Portugal then you get the full Corbynista level taxes). While in the UK.....
    Spain is also very open to immigration.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/feb/18/how-spains-radically-different-approach-to-migration-helped-its-economy-soar?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

    A lot of it is from Latin America.

    Yep, it's amazing just how many Latin Americans there are in Spain, even in the most out of the way places. Go to a small town in the middle of Castile and the chances are the waiter serving you in the local bar or restaurant will be from Argentina or Chile. A lot of them have Italian passports so have no problems with residence. Most non-Spanish speakers will not notice, of course. And the Spanish are generally absolutely fine with them, including the right, who see them as Hispanic brothers and sisters. The one demographic that really dislikes the LatAms is the Catalan nationalist movement. Latin Americans come to Barcelona and other Catalan cities and speak Spanish, not Catalan. For that reason, a lot of Catalans prefer North and sub-Saharan African immigrants because they are more likely to learn the language.

  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,664
    Andy_JS said:

    Reform leads with
    YouGov
    Techne
    FindOutNow
    MoreInCommon

    Lab leads with
    Opinium

    Other pollsters haven't reported this month so far.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

    I may well be wrong, but I think polling sort of resets from the moment Trump came out as pro Russia and anti Ukraine, pro Russia and anti NATO, voting in the UN with Russia and China and against UK and France. I wonder if there will be a small but discernible move towards all three of L,C and LD and against Reform (and Green) over the next couple of months - a shift towards boring Eurocentric safety.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,216

    IanB2 said:

    TimS said:

    New Yougov. We remain with PR vote shares in a FPTP system. Make of it what you will:

    📊 Ref lead of 1pt

    REF: 25% (-1)
    LAB: 24% (-1)
    CON: 22% (+1)
    LDEM: 16% (+2)
    GRN: 8% (-1)

    via @YouGov, 23 - 24 Feb
    Chgs. w/ 10 Feb
    britainelects.com

    Highest Lib Dem score for some time.

    SPLORG on 54%
    LLG 48 RefCon 47
    Con-Ref ratio 0.88:1

    LibDem surge.

    Sleazy, Russo-backed Reform now on the slide….
    It's the highest Lib Dem share with any pollster since May 2023, when Red & Wilt also reported a 16% share. That was the only LD share that high after the 2019 GE, until now.

    The last higher share for the party was in November 2019, during that general election campaign.
    Predictions Comp ?
  • HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    viewcode said:

    carnforth said:

    Suspect this all gets quietly reversed if a Democrat (or a sensible Republican) wins the next election.

    No it won't. There are decades-long strategic reasons why USA is disconnecting from Europe and pitoting to the Pacific and a tripolar world. This tendency was obvious even under Biden. Trump's successors will not reverse this trend and we need to work out how to cope.
    Before Biden. Obama basically said it outright - the Pivot to the Pacific

    If you come to the Indo-Pacific - and I am right now staring across a modest chunk of it on soi Nana, Klong Toei, Bangkok - then you realise why. All the energy is here, the buzz, the ideas, the innovation, the oooomph, despite the often dire demographics

    America has a vast Pacific coastline and is very much part of this

    Europe is not. We are the museum continent. We will become the Venice of the world

    I am currently in Barcelona. New businesses are popping up here all the time, many of them started by newcomers. In our office here, we have an Italian CEO, a French CFO and a Finnish head of BD. Our client base is global. The Spanish economy is forecast to grow around 3% this year. Portuguese growth is also pretty healthy, as is Greece's. Meanwhile, the Nordics are significant global innovation hubs that enjoy among the world's highest standards of living. It's not so much Europe that has the problems as France, Germany, the UK and Italy. And their ones do not have to permanent.

    I am sure all these foreign business people flocking to Spain, Portugal, Greece is nothing to do with the very favourable tax T&Cs their government have put in place for people to take their businesses there (at least for 5 years, then in places like Portugal then you get the full Corbynista level taxes). While in the UK.....
    Spain is also very open to immigration.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/feb/18/how-spains-radically-different-approach-to-migration-helped-its-economy-soar?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

    A lot of it is from Latin America.
    For now as it has a Socialist government but the conservative PP has a clear poll lead with far right Vox third

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Spanish_general_election

    It's a Socialist/Communist coalition. PP got most votes in the 2023 general election and Vox came third, but between then they did not have the seats to create a majority.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,216

    Robert Peston doesn't understand 'percentage points' and seems to think it's just a more flowery way of saying percent.

    https://x.com/Peston/status/1894391756470263936

    Trump and Musk are all but eliminating their equivalent, USAID. Now the first left-of-centre British government for 14 years is reducing overseas aid spending by a jaw-dropping 40 percentage points.

    You're a Trump supporter.
    Numeracy isn't relevant.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,773
    Leon said:

    ON topic can anyone recommend a good TV drama?

    I’ve basically run out. I’m reduced to watching “Fallout” which won loads of Emmys but is apparently based on a meh video game and feels like it: tired sci fi, tries to be simultaneously funny, scary, witty and serious and succeeds at none.

    American Primeval, Severance, The White Lotus, Mandalorian? Is "Rome" still available?

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,216
    Leon said:

    scampi25 said:

    So like Trump or loathe him he gets his way as the UK & EUROPE gets with his agenda. I fully support the increase from Starter but chuckle a little to think the howls from the Labour benches if It was Kemi or Nigel cutting Overseas aid. By the by surely there needs to be much more pressure now on Ireland, Spain etc to join the re-arming party with some hard cash.

    Indeed. IRELAND

    It would be just about tolerable if they were still a skint rainy ultra-Catholic shit-hole, but Ireland has grown rich and fat with parasitic corporate tax rates - almost stealing from the rest of Europe - and STILL Ireland refuses to front up even 1% for defense of the west, and they bleat about Israel and shine their frigging haloes. They can REALLY afford it. Fuck em
    I see they just sent Ukraine three obsolete short range radar kits.
    Minus the missiles that go with them, as that would violate their principles.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,299
    Andy_JS said:

    James Carville on what Dems should do now. "play dead"

    "The Army has a term for this: “tactical pause.” It’s a vision move — get out of the hour-to-hour, day-to-day combat where one side (ours) is largely playing defense and struggling to defend politically charged positions (like explaining D.E.I. or persuading voters to care about foreign aid), and take time to regroup, look forward and make decisions about where we want to get to over the next two years."

    Voters will soon be sick of Trump/Musk 2.0:

    "The people did not vote for the Department of Education to be obliterated — they voted for lower prices for eggs and milk."

    https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/25/opinion/democrats-trump-congress.html

    Ridiculous. The Democrats need to face up to the reasons why they lost, not bury their heads in the sand. The truth is if Vance is the presidential candidate at the next election he'll probably win easily, and one of the main reasons will be because the Dems have decided not to learn anything.
    Hang on. It was pretty close. Not much above 1% in the PV and the swing states. And that in a climate where recent high inflation had incumbents losing almost everywhere. Unless Trump corrupts the whole electoral process (a possibility) the Dems have every chance next time simply by being the alternative to the GOP. I can't see any compelling reason, this far out, with the practical impact of Trump2 so uncertain, to deviate much from 50/50 as an assessment for WH28.
  • NEW THREAD

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,278
    edited February 25
    Andy_JS said:

    James Carville on what Dems should do now. "play dead"

    "The Army has a term for this: “tactical pause.” It’s a vision move — get out of the hour-to-hour, day-to-day combat where one side (ours) is largely playing defense and struggling to defend politically charged positions (like explaining D.E.I. or persuading voters to care about foreign aid), and take time to regroup, look forward and make decisions about where we want to get to over the next two years."

    Voters will soon be sick of Trump/Musk 2.0:

    "The people did not vote for the Department of Education to be obliterated — they voted for lower prices for eggs and milk."

    https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/25/opinion/democrats-trump-congress.html

    Ridiculous. The Democrats need to face up to the reasons why they lost, not bury their heads in the sand. The truth is if Vance is the presidential candidate at the next election he'll probably win easily, and one of the main reasons will be because the Dems have decided not to learn anything.
    If Trump's tariffs have increased cost of living in the US the Democrats could pick AOC and still beat Vance
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,278
    edited February 25

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    viewcode said:

    carnforth said:

    Suspect this all gets quietly reversed if a Democrat (or a sensible Republican) wins the next election.

    No it won't. There are decades-long strategic reasons why USA is disconnecting from Europe and pitoting to the Pacific and a tripolar world. This tendency was obvious even under Biden. Trump's successors will not reverse this trend and we need to work out how to cope.
    Before Biden. Obama basically said it outright - the Pivot to the Pacific

    If you come to the Indo-Pacific - and I am right now staring across a modest chunk of it on soi Nana, Klong Toei, Bangkok - then you realise why. All the energy is here, the buzz, the ideas, the innovation, the oooomph, despite the often dire demographics

    America has a vast Pacific coastline and is very much part of this

    Europe is not. We are the museum continent. We will become the Venice of the world

    I am currently in Barcelona. New businesses are popping up here all the time, many of them started by newcomers. In our office here, we have an Italian CEO, a French CFO and a Finnish head of BD. Our client base is global. The Spanish economy is forecast to grow around 3% this year. Portuguese growth is also pretty healthy, as is Greece's. Meanwhile, the Nordics are significant global innovation hubs that enjoy among the world's highest standards of living. It's not so much Europe that has the problems as France, Germany, the UK and Italy. And their ones do not have to permanent.

    I am sure all these foreign business people flocking to Spain, Portugal, Greece is nothing to do with the very favourable tax T&Cs their government have put in place for people to take their businesses there (at least for 5 years, then in places like Portugal then you get the full Corbynista level taxes). While in the UK.....
    Spain is also very open to immigration.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/feb/18/how-spains-radically-different-approach-to-migration-helped-its-economy-soar?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

    A lot of it is from Latin America.
    For now as it has a Socialist government but the conservative PP has a clear poll lead with far right Vox third

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Spanish_general_election

    It's a Socialist/Communist coalition. PP got most votes in the 2023 general election and Vox came third, but between then they did not have the seats to create a majority.

    With the rise in Vox support, combined the PP and Vox should have enough for a majority next time. They were only 6 seats off a majority last time
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 3,204
    Right now my area is experiencing power losses from high winds knocking over trees. About 150,000 customers* had lost power when I listened to the news this morning. The problem is not expected to last long, as the winds should abate about 10 this morning, and the local utilities are usually quick to restore power.

    But such problems would be less serious if attitudes about trees in the area would change. I like trees -- a lot -- as you would expect from someone who grew up on a farm that raised apples, pears, cherries, and even a few apricots. But I also recognize that trees are a potential problem near power lines. But many voters in this area prefer not to think about that problem. So governments in this area are reluctant to trim trees and even remove them in some cases. (Or require the utilities to do the trimming and removal.)

    *Customers, rather than people, since the data comes from the utilities. Most likely more than 200,000 people are affected.

  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 557
    Leon said:

    scampi25 said:

    So like Trump or loathe him he gets his way as the UK & EUROPE gets with his agenda. I fully support the increase from Starter but chuckle a little to think the howls from the Labour benches if It was Kemi or Nigel cutting Overseas aid. By the by surely there needs to be much more pressure now on Ireland, Spain etc to join the re-arming party with some hard cash.

    Indeed. IRELAND

    It would be just about tolerable if they were still a skint rainy ultra-Catholic shit-hole, but Ireland has grown rich and fat with parasitic corporate tax rates - almost stealing from the rest of Europe - and STILL Ireland refuses to front up even 1% for defense of the west, and they bleat about Israel and shine their frigging haloes. They can REALLY afford it. Fuck em
    The Irish can defend themselves. We've had centuries of practice thanks to the generosity of our neighbours. If you would like to hold onto the 6 counties we'd be eternally grateful and send over some more Guinness and Barry's Tea
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,838

    If LDs get into the 20s that would be fun

    All at 25% would be hilarious
    When you say "hilarious", I think what you mean is "extremely lucrative from a betting perspective".
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,773

    James Carville on what Dems should do now. "play dead"

    "The Army has a term for this: “tactical pause.” It’s a vision move — get out of the hour-to-hour, day-to-day combat where one side (ours) is largely playing defense and struggling to defend politically charged positions (like explaining D.E.I. or persuading voters to care about foreign aid), and take time to regroup, look forward and make decisions about where we want to get to over the next two years."

    Voters will soon be sick of Trump/Musk 2.0:

    "The people did not vote for the Department of Education to be obliterated — they voted for lower prices for eggs and milk."

    https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/25/opinion/democrats-trump-congress.html

    "Hard pressed on my right. My center is yielding. Impossible to maneuver. Situation excellent. I am attacking." (Ferdinand Foch)

    "We need a plan of attack!" "I have a plan. Attack!" (Cap vs Stark, The Avengers)

    Fuck it. Twat them. :)

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,278
    algarkirk said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Reform leads with
    YouGov
    Techne
    FindOutNow
    MoreInCommon

    Lab leads with
    Opinium

    Other pollsters haven't reported this month so far.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

    I may well be wrong, but I think polling sort of resets from the moment Trump came out as pro Russia and anti Ukraine, pro Russia and anti NATO, voting in the UN with Russia and China and against UK and France. I wonder if there will be a small but discernible move towards all three of L,C and LD and against Reform (and Green) over the next couple of months - a shift towards boring Eurocentric safety.
    China abstained on the UNGA vote, only the US voted with Russia
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,278
    kamski said:

    HYUFD said:

    kamski said:

    HYUFD said:

    kamski said:

    HYUFD said:

    kamski said:

    .

    kamski said:

    dixiedean said:

    MattW said:

    On the German election, as I read it the 2 party coalition will lack the supermajority of MPs necessary to do significant changes such as lifting the debt ceiling, and other measures - leaving them subject to a far left / far right blocking minority.

    Can anyone elucidate?

    There is a nascent plan to lift the ceiling before the new Parliament meets.
    I do not know the details of how that would work.
    It's kind of absurd because Scholz was insisting these last weeks that to find an extra 4 billion for Ukraine the debt brake would have to be lifted, which would take a 2 thirds majority to do constitutionally. Merz refused. After the elections the new parliament will have over a third of MPs from the AfD and the Left. Now, the Left are anyway against the debt brake (but are not in favour of increasing military aid for Ukraine, and want to reduce military spending) but are now in a position to demand concessions before lending their votes to reforming the debt brake. Yesterday they said "We will only vote if there are conditions attached. We will not vote for rearmament."

    In the old parliament (the new one starts from the 25th March at the latest), SPD+Union+Greens have more than 2 thirds, so Merz's cunning plan is to try and amend the debt brake before the new parliament is confirmed. It's an unusual move, as the Bundestag has actually finished its sessions, but maybe it works to recall it? Don't know.

    This wouldn't have happened if Merz hadn't been playing politics earlier. He was in favour of keeping the debt brake unchanged in opposition because it made governing impossible, now he wants to reform it. He was warned this would happen, but he's an arsehole.
    This article explains the situation:
    https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/politik/deutschland/bundestagswahl-union-schuldenbremse-reform-100.html

    But there are concerns. The CSU wants to stick to its election promise, as does the CDU 's parliamentary manager Thorsten Frei. Saxony's Prime Minister Michael Kretschmer believes that "if you want to change the debt rules, you have to discuss it with the Left Party." And even SPD Finance Minister Jörg Kukies is very skeptical that the plan can be implemented in such a short time:
    "In my view, it would also be a questionable political signal if constitutional changes were to be made now with an old majority."
    Given Merz wants to exclude the AfD from power anyway I don't really see the issue, he will be governing with the SPD to may as well use the old CDU and SPD and Green majority from the old parliament.

    Otherwise he would have to offer the AfD harder policies on immigration for their abstention on the debt raising to fund more arms for Ukraine
    Maybe try reading my post, or if you can't understand that read the article, which maybe explains some of it better.

    Because the German constitution since 2009 has limited the deficit to 0.35% of GDP, there will be no extra money for defence or Ukraine without cutting investments and social security. Making cuts elsewhere to fund Ukraine and the military will be quickest way to ensure a majority for the Putinist far right and left at the next election.

    In the last parliament the SPD and Greens desperately wanted to reform the debt brake, but the FDP and Union (and AfD for that matter) refused. In the case of Merz and the CDU this was pure political mischief-making because it was obvious he would need to increase the deficit if he became Chancellor. He was warned this situation was likely to arise, but carried on playing politics because man is not a serious politician but an utter arse.
    Putinist far right and left differ massively over immigration so couldn't work together anyway.

    The SPD can vote to increase the deficit solely to fund Ukraine's extra arms as the price of their support to Merz
    HYUFD said:

    kamski said:

    HYUFD said:

    kamski said:

    .

    kamski said:

    dixiedean said:

    MattW said:

    On the German election, as I read it the 2 party coalition will lack the supermajority of MPs necessary to do significant changes such as lifting the debt ceiling, and other measures - leaving them subject to a far left / far right blocking minority.

    Can anyone elucidate?

    There is a nascent plan to lift the ceiling before the new Parliament meets.
    I do not know the details of how that would work.
    It's kind of absurd because Scholz was insisting these last weeks that to find an extra 4 billion for Ukraine the debt brake would have to be lifted, which would take a 2 thirds majority to do constitutionally. Merz refused. After the elections the new parliament will have over a third of MPs from the AfD and the Left. Now, the Left are anyway against the debt brake (but are not in favour of increasing military aid for Ukraine, and want to reduce military spending) but are now in a position to demand concessions before lending their votes to reforming the debt brake. Yesterday they said "We will only vote if there are conditions attached. We will not vote for rearmament."

    In the old parliament (the new one starts from the 25th March at the latest), SPD+Union+Greens have more than 2 thirds, so Merz's cunning plan is to try and amend the debt brake before the new parliament is confirmed. It's an unusual move, as the Bundestag has actually finished its sessions, but maybe it works to recall it? Don't know.

    This wouldn't have happened if Merz hadn't been playing politics earlier. He was in favour of keeping the debt brake unchanged in opposition because it made governing impossible, now he wants to reform it. He was warned this would happen, but he's an arsehole.
    This article explains the situation:
    https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/politik/deutschland/bundestagswahl-union-schuldenbremse-reform-100.html

    But there are concerns. The CSU wants to stick to its election promise, as does the CDU 's parliamentary manager Thorsten Frei. Saxony's Prime Minister Michael Kretschmer believes that "if you want to change the debt rules, you have to discuss it with the Left Party." And even SPD Finance Minister Jörg Kukies is very skeptical that the plan can be implemented in such a short time:
    "In my view, it would also be a questionable political signal if constitutional changes were to be made now with an old majority."
    Given Merz wants to exclude the AfD from power anyway I don't really see the issue, he will be governing with the SPD to may as well use the old CDU and SPD and Green majority from the old parliament.

    Otherwise he would have to offer the AfD harder policies on immigration for their abstention on the debt raising to fund more arms for Ukraine
    Maybe try reading my post, or if you can't understand that read the article, which maybe explains some of it better.

    Because the German constitution since 2009 has limited the deficit to 0.35% of GDP, there will be no extra money for defence or Ukraine without cutting investments and social security. Making cuts elsewhere to fund Ukraine and the military will be quickest way to ensure a majority for the Putinist far right and left at the next election.

    In the last parliament the SPD and Greens desperately wanted to reform the debt brake, but the FDP and Union (and AfD for that matter) refused. In the case of Merz and the CDU this was pure political mischief-making because it was obvious he would need to increase the deficit if he became Chancellor. He was warned this situation was likely to arise, but carried on playing politics because man is not a serious politician but an utter arse.
    Putinist far right and left differ massively over immigration so couldn't work together anyway.

    The SPD can vote to increase the deficit solely to fund Ukraine's extra arms as the price of their support to Merz
    The problem is the constitutional limit on the deficit of 0.35% of GDP.

    This the whole issue being talked about. God alone knows what you think you are on about.
    Which can be changed with 2/3 majority if SPD and Greens give it in return for no social security cuts
    It COULD have been changed with the outgoing parliament. There is no 2/3 majority in the incoming parliament. What bit of this are you having difficulty understanding?
    The incoming parliament has not taken office yet and of course the Left are more anti Putin than the BSW who won no seats so the Left might fund the extra support for Zelensky too
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,299
    edited February 25
    Fishing said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sensible move from Starmer to increase defence spending to 2.5% and pay for it by cutting overseas aid

    Yes, Sir Keir has played a blinder there. It's regrettable that our soft power through overseas aid will take a hit...
    The soft power of international aid is largely or entirely a myth, generated by the aid-industrial complex to justify raiding the public purse. Look at our top aid recipients in 2019 by country:

    - Pakistan
    - Ethiopia
    - Afghanistan
    - Yemen
    - Nigeria
    - Bangladesh
    - Syria

    Are any of those countries particularly friendly to this one? Have any of them particularly gone out of their way to make our lives easier?

    America poured $1 trillion into Afghanistan over a couple of decades. But once the threat of US hard power was gone thanks to Biden's (and Trump's) disastrous incompetence, the Taliban were back in a couple of days.

    It's that hard power that gets you influence in these countries. Giving billions away just makes you look naive and stupid. There is doubtless a humanitarian case for aid, to make people feel better and avoid pictures of starving children or people with easily curable diseases on the news, but I don't think we should expect any goodwill or influence in return.
    When I hear of wealthy countries donating resource to poor countries I don't think "oh how stupid and naive". It isn't either of those things. It's essentially a good thing to do. I mean, if a loaded individual spends every last penny on themselves, giving nothing to those less fortunate, we don't particularly respect that life choice, do we. So why is it any different for countries?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,914
    Battlebus said:

    Leon said:

    scampi25 said:

    So like Trump or loathe him he gets his way as the UK & EUROPE gets with his agenda. I fully support the increase from Starter but chuckle a little to think the howls from the Labour benches if It was Kemi or Nigel cutting Overseas aid. By the by surely there needs to be much more pressure now on Ireland, Spain etc to join the re-arming party with some hard cash.

    Indeed. IRELAND

    It would be just about tolerable if they were still a skint rainy ultra-Catholic shit-hole, but Ireland has grown rich and fat with parasitic corporate tax rates - almost stealing from the rest of Europe - and STILL Ireland refuses to front up even 1% for defense of the west, and they bleat about Israel and shine their frigging haloes. They can REALLY afford it. Fuck em
    The Irish can defend themselves. We've had centuries of practice thanks to the generosity of our neighbours. If you would like to hold onto the 6 counties we'd be eternally grateful and send over some more Guinness and Barry's Tea
    Just spend 3% of GDP on Defence
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,831

    IanB2 said:

    scampi25 said:

    So like Trump or loathe him he gets his way as the UK & EUROPE gets with his agenda. I fully support the increase from Starter but chuckle a little to think the howls from the Labour benches if It was Kemi or Nigel cutting Overseas aid. By the by surely there needs to be much more pressure now on Ireland, Spain etc to join the re-arming party with some hard cash.

    Davey’s positioning as the only party not willing to surrender to the mango Mussolini may well turn out to be extraordinarily astute.
    Not sure "astute" is quite the right word as it's a pretty obvious position for him. But it's certainly fallen kindly for the Lib Dems. Being anti-Trump is popular in the UK, the Tories and RefUK can't do it ideologically, and Labour can't do it as they need to deal with Trump in office.
    "can't do it ideologically" being your unusually flowerly way of saying that they are wrong?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,432
    HYUFD said:

    algarkirk said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Reform leads with
    YouGov
    Techne
    FindOutNow
    MoreInCommon

    Lab leads with
    Opinium

    Other pollsters haven't reported this month so far.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

    I may well be wrong, but I think polling sort of resets from the moment Trump came out as pro Russia and anti Ukraine, pro Russia and anti NATO, voting in the UN with Russia and China and against UK and France. I wonder if there will be a small but discernible move towards all three of L,C and LD and against Reform (and Green) over the next couple of months - a shift towards boring Eurocentric safety.
    China abstained on the UNGA vote, only the US voted with Russia
    No, 18 countries voted against.



    Apart from Israel these all look like Russian puppet regimes.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,004
    rcs1000 said:

    If LDs get into the 20s that would be fun

    All at 25% would be hilarious
    When you say "hilarious", I think what you mean is "extremely lucrative from a betting perspective".
    It'd be a bad night for the SNP.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,432
    edited February 25
    Battlebus said:

    Leon said:

    scampi25 said:

    So like Trump or loathe him he gets his way as the UK & EUROPE gets with his agenda. I fully support the increase from Starter but chuckle a little to think the howls from the Labour benches if It was Kemi or Nigel cutting Overseas aid. By the by surely there needs to be much more pressure now on Ireland, Spain etc to join the re-arming party with some hard cash.

    Indeed. IRELAND

    It would be just about tolerable if they were still a skint rainy ultra-Catholic shit-hole, but Ireland has grown rich and fat with parasitic corporate tax rates - almost stealing from the rest of Europe - and STILL Ireland refuses to front up even 1% for defense of the west, and they bleat about Israel and shine their frigging haloes. They can REALLY afford it. Fuck em
    The Irish can defend themselves. We've had centuries of practice thanks to the generosity of our neighbours. If you would like to hold onto the 6 counties we'd be eternally grateful and send over some more Guinness and Barry's Tea
    Ireland managed to defeat the British Empire in its post WW1 heyday. It's no shrinking violet.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,163
    HYUFD said:

    kamski said:

    HYUFD said:

    kamski said:

    HYUFD said:

    kamski said:

    HYUFD said:

    kamski said:

    .

    kamski said:

    dixiedean said:

    MattW said:

    On the German election, as I read it the 2 party coalition will lack the supermajority of MPs necessary to do significant changes such as lifting the debt ceiling, and other measures - leaving them subject to a far left / far right blocking minority.

    Can anyone elucidate?

    There is a nascent plan to lift the ceiling before the new Parliament meets.
    I do not know the details of how that would work.
    It's kind of absurd because Scholz was insisting these last weeks that to find an extra 4 billion for Ukraine the debt brake would have to be lifted, which would take a 2 thirds majority to do constitutionally. Merz refused. After the elections the new parliament will have over a third of MPs from the AfD and the Left. Now, the Left are anyway against the debt brake (but are not in favour of increasing military aid for Ukraine, and want to reduce military spending) but are now in a position to demand concessions before lending their votes to reforming the debt brake. Yesterday they said "We will only vote if there are conditions attached. We will not vote for rearmament."

    In the old parliament (the new one starts from the 25th March at the latest), SPD+Union+Greens have more than 2 thirds, so Merz's cunning plan is to try and amend the debt brake before the new parliament is confirmed. It's an unusual move, as the Bundestag has actually finished its sessions, but maybe it works to recall it? Don't know.

    This wouldn't have happened if Merz hadn't been playing politics earlier. He was in favour of keeping the debt brake unchanged in opposition because it made governing impossible, now he wants to reform it. He was warned this would happen, but he's an arsehole.
    This article explains the situation:
    https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/politik/deutschland/bundestagswahl-union-schuldenbremse-reform-100.html

    But there are concerns. The CSU wants to stick to its election promise, as does the CDU 's parliamentary manager Thorsten Frei. Saxony's Prime Minister Michael Kretschmer believes that "if you want to change the debt rules, you have to discuss it with the Left Party." And even SPD Finance Minister Jörg Kukies is very skeptical that the plan can be implemented in such a short time:
    "In my view, it would also be a questionable political signal if constitutional changes were to be made now with an old majority."
    Given Merz wants to exclude the AfD from power anyway I don't really see the issue, he will be governing with the SPD to may as well use the old CDU and SPD and Green majority from the old parliament.

    Otherwise he would have to offer the AfD harder policies on immigration for their abstention on the debt raising to fund more arms for Ukraine
    Maybe try reading my post, or if you can't understand that read the article, which maybe explains some of it better.

    Because the German constitution since 2009 has limited the deficit to 0.35% of GDP, there will be no extra money for defence or Ukraine without cutting investments and social security. Making cuts elsewhere to fund Ukraine and the military will be quickest way to ensure a majority for the Putinist far right and left at the next election.

    In the last parliament the SPD and Greens desperately wanted to reform the debt brake, but the FDP and Union (and AfD for that matter) refused. In the case of Merz and the CDU this was pure political mischief-making because it was obvious he would need to increase the deficit if he became Chancellor. He was warned this situation was likely to arise, but carried on playing politics because man is not a serious politician but an utter arse.
    Putinist far right and left differ massively over immigration so couldn't work together anyway.

    The SPD can vote to increase the deficit solely to fund Ukraine's extra arms as the price of their support to Merz
    HYUFD said:

    kamski said:

    HYUFD said:

    kamski said:

    .

    kamski said:

    dixiedean said:

    MattW said:

    On the German election, as I read it the 2 party coalition will lack the supermajority of MPs necessary to do significant changes such as lifting the debt ceiling, and other measures - leaving them subject to a far left / far right blocking minority.

    Can anyone elucidate?

    There is a nascent plan to lift the ceiling before the new Parliament meets.
    I do not know the details of how that would work.
    It's kind of absurd because Scholz was insisting these last weeks that to find an extra 4 billion for Ukraine the debt brake would have to be lifted, which would take a 2 thirds majority to do constitutionally. Merz refused. After the elections the new parliament will have over a third of MPs from the AfD and the Left. Now, the Left are anyway against the debt brake (but are not in favour of increasing military aid for Ukraine, and want to reduce military spending) but are now in a position to demand concessions before lending their votes to reforming the debt brake. Yesterday they said "We will only vote if there are conditions attached. We will not vote for rearmament."

    In the old parliament (the new one starts from the 25th March at the latest), SPD+Union+Greens have more than 2 thirds, so Merz's cunning plan is to try and amend the debt brake before the new parliament is confirmed. It's an unusual move, as the Bundestag has actually finished its sessions, but maybe it works to recall it? Don't know.

    This wouldn't have happened if Merz hadn't been playing politics earlier. He was in favour of keeping the debt brake unchanged in opposition because it made governing impossible, now he wants to reform it. He was warned this would happen, but he's an arsehole.
    This article explains the situation:
    https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/politik/deutschland/bundestagswahl-union-schuldenbremse-reform-100.html

    But there are concerns. The CSU wants to stick to its election promise, as does the CDU 's parliamentary manager Thorsten Frei. Saxony's Prime Minister Michael Kretschmer believes that "if you want to change the debt rules, you have to discuss it with the Left Party." And even SPD Finance Minister Jörg Kukies is very skeptical that the plan can be implemented in such a short time:
    "In my view, it would also be a questionable political signal if constitutional changes were to be made now with an old majority."
    Given Merz wants to exclude the AfD from power anyway I don't really see the issue, he will be governing with the SPD to may as well use the old CDU and SPD and Green majority from the old parliament.

    Otherwise he would have to offer the AfD harder policies on immigration for their abstention on the debt raising to fund more arms for Ukraine
    Maybe try reading my post, or if you can't understand that read the article, which maybe explains some of it better.

    Because the German constitution since 2009 has limited the deficit to 0.35% of GDP, there will be no extra money for defence or Ukraine without cutting investments and social security. Making cuts elsewhere to fund Ukraine and the military will be quickest way to ensure a majority for the Putinist far right and left at the next election.

    In the last parliament the SPD and Greens desperately wanted to reform the debt brake, but the FDP and Union (and AfD for that matter) refused. In the case of Merz and the CDU this was pure political mischief-making because it was obvious he would need to increase the deficit if he became Chancellor. He was warned this situation was likely to arise, but carried on playing politics because man is not a serious politician but an utter arse.
    Putinist far right and left differ massively over immigration so couldn't work together anyway.

    The SPD can vote to increase the deficit solely to fund Ukraine's extra arms as the price of their support to Merz
    The problem is the constitutional limit on the deficit of 0.35% of GDP.

    This the whole issue being talked about. God alone knows what you think you are on about.
    Which can be changed with 2/3 majority if SPD and Greens give it in return for no social security cuts
    It COULD have been changed with the outgoing parliament. There is no 2/3 majority in the incoming parliament. What bit of this are you having difficulty understanding?
    The incoming parliament has not taken office yet and of course the Left are more anti Putin than the BSW who won no seats so the Left might fund the extra support for Zelensky too
    I give up. Is this some substandard AI shit?
  • Increase in defence spending will be partially funded by cutting the UK’s foreign aid budget from 0.5% of gross national income to 0.3%.

    I remember the outcry of it would be end of times stuff when Tories cut foreign aid budget from 0.7% to 0.5%.

    Too much of the budget is graft by professional "charities".

    Cutting to cloth and eliminating the funding of charities will see the money that is spent go much further.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,047

    Robert Peston doesn't understand 'percentage points' and seems to think it's just a more flowery way of saying percent.

    https://x.com/Peston/status/1894391756470263936

    Trump and Musk are all but eliminating their equivalent, USAID. Now the first left-of-centre British government for 14 years is reducing overseas aid spending by a jaw-dropping 40 percentage points.

    It's only "jaw dropping" if you're a left-wing liberal twat.

    Otherwise, it's shoulder-shrugging or cheering.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,922
    kinabalu said:

    Fishing said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sensible move from Starmer to increase defence spending to 2.5% and pay for it by cutting overseas aid

    Yes, Sir Keir has played a blinder there. It's regrettable that our soft power through overseas aid will take a hit...
    The soft power of international aid is largely or entirely a myth, generated by the aid-industrial complex to justify raiding the public purse. Look at our top aid recipients in 2019 by country:

    - Pakistan
    - Ethiopia
    - Afghanistan
    - Yemen
    - Nigeria
    - Bangladesh
    - Syria

    Are any of those countries particularly friendly to this one? Have any of them particularly gone out of their way to make our lives easier?

    America poured $1 trillion into Afghanistan over a couple of decades. But once the threat of US hard power was gone thanks to Biden's (and Trump's) disastrous incompetence, the Taliban were back in a couple of days.

    It's that hard power that gets you influence in these countries. Giving billions away just makes you look naive and stupid. There is doubtless a humanitarian case for aid, to make people feel better and avoid pictures of starving children or people with easily curable diseases on the news, but I don't think we should expect any goodwill or influence in return.
    When I hear of wealthy countries donating resource to poor countries I don't think "oh how stupid and naive". It isn't either of those things. It's essentially a good thing to do. I mean, if a loaded individual spends every last penny on themselves, giving nothing to those less fortunate, we don't particularly respect that life choice, do we. So why is it any different for countries?
    WE have done it all my life and it has changed nothing , just made some crooks rich. Total waste of money due to incompetence. When the UK is a shithole they should be spending our taxes here.
    Most if not all of those countries hate us except when they are taking our cash.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,922
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    algarkirk said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Reform leads with
    YouGov
    Techne
    FindOutNow
    MoreInCommon

    Lab leads with
    Opinium

    Other pollsters haven't reported this month so far.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

    I may well be wrong, but I think polling sort of resets from the moment Trump came out as pro Russia and anti Ukraine, pro Russia and anti NATO, voting in the UN with Russia and China and against UK and France. I wonder if there will be a small but discernible move towards all three of L,C and LD and against Reform (and Green) over the next couple of months - a shift towards boring Eurocentric safety.
    China abstained on the UNGA vote, only the US voted with Russia
    No, 18 countries voted against.



    Apart from Israel these all look like Russian puppet regimes.
    word you are looking for is shitholes.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,216
    .
    HYUFD said:

    algarkirk said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Reform leads with
    YouGov
    Techne
    FindOutNow
    MoreInCommon

    Lab leads with
    Opinium

    Other pollsters haven't reported this month so far.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

    I may well be wrong, but I think polling sort of resets from the moment Trump came out as pro Russia and anti Ukraine, pro Russia and anti NATO, voting in the UN with Russia and China and against UK and France. I wonder if there will be a small but discernible move towards all three of L,C and LD and against Reform (and Green) over the next couple of months - a shift towards boring Eurocentric safety.
    China abstained on the UNGA vote, only the US voted with Russia
    First time since WWII that the US has voted with Russia against Europe.
This discussion has been closed.