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Ukraine matters – politicalbetting.com
Ukraine matters – politicalbetting.com
How important to Britain’s national interest, if at all, do you think the outcome of the war in Ukraine is?Very important: 37%Fairly important: 37%Not very important: 9%Not at all important: 4%yougov.co.uk/topics/polit…
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Ukraine is very important because the aggressor is *Russia*.
Peace within Africa not so important to Africans. There the "Big Man" can take what he wants - wealth, women, land, power without votes.
I think we are right to be worried about a Big Man threatening what we hold dear.
Or should hold dear, you Reform traitors.
Supposedly Tesla have vast numbers of unsold cars that nobody wants. In reality they've sold everything they could make which leaves them with a gap of over 5 months on the Y
I have no doubt at all that Musk's anticsd are depressing sales. But at the same time a 5 month availability gap on the best selling car in the world for the last 2 years running is going to make the numbers look really sick for the whole of H1
Think of it like better for the party you want to lose an election
Russia is always a threat to its neighbours.
Although Uber seem to have wisely decided this isn’t going to happen any time soon.
Elon on the other hand, has been promising full self driving since 2012, every year.
Surely nobody decent (haha) could object to this - the US gets their money back and future protection of the Ukraine is an income generator.
Yes, I know that Trump wouldn’t go for it because he’s a greedy shyster but it would add to highlighting that globally.
https://www.independent.co.uk/tech/elon-musk-xai-grok-misinformation-b2703388.html
That is one good reason we need not just one AI system, but several, run by competing organisations...
Tesla made a long-awaited update to its autopilot software in China to add a city navigation feature, but the move disappointed Chinese owners who said it fell short of Elon Musk's promises
https://x.com/Reuters/status/1894274903215374703
In US Dems are 3x more likely to buy an electric vehicle than Republicans - he's alienated most of his market. Tesla's valuation has always been crazy, but I think we may soon be at the point it all unravels.
Around here even most humans aren't safe to drive a car and navigate the potholes, stray animals, fallen trees, overgrown hedges, flooded roads, pop-up roadworks, tractors, cyclists, walkers, random objects literally fallen off the back of a lorry, etc., etc.
But Tesla has failed to deliver what is has promised time and time again. Worse, hardware that was absolutely promised to be able to do FSD cannot, meaning cars need to be updated - without knowing if the new hardware can do it.
The Robotaxis shite has been promised by Musk before. In 2019 he promised them for 2020. If you cannot get your timescales right less than a year out...
https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a32159871/tesla-robo-taxis-still-coming-2020/
These claims are nothing more than attempts to ramp the share price.
They seem to have self driving working, for what they are asking it to do.
Trump seemed confident of the deal though I do not trust a thing he says, but late last night a report on Sky from their Moscow correspondent on a speech Putin was making at the same time as the Trump - Macron meeting where Putin announced that he was in talks with Trump over a deal for the sale of Russian minerals to him and that a deal for the US - Russia and China to cut spending on defence by 50% [yes 50%] was in discussion
How fast everything has changed and uncertainty abounds
https://heycar.com/uk/guides/best-self-driving-cars
Or top-10 autonomous vehicles from last year:
https://evmagazine.com/top10/top-10-autonomous-vehicles
There are votes for a party linked with Trumpism, but also an upper limit. Also, as with Germany, others won't play with them in the playground.
Germany is like us in that there is such a thing as the 'democratic centre'. They are combining - ignore the window dressing - to ensure the isolation of extremes as long as they can.
The last UK GE was run by a simple silent slogan 'anyone but the Tory'. Farage's danger is that elections now have the silent slogan 'Anyone bur Reform.
The traditional car manufacturers have generally gone for the former; the disrupters (e.g. Waymo) the latter.
Tesla have done the former, but claim the latter. Because Musk is a liar.
That is the problem - I don't think legislators and regulators are ready. Waymo fits adapted cars with bubble protrusions to drive around selected cities. Tesla takes stock cars to drive around those cities and in-between them. But who is liable when a fully automated car kills someone - as it will?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/04/ex-nato-head-says-putin-wanted-to-join-alliance-early-on-in-his-rule
https://www.trtworld.com/magazine/russia-could-have-joined-nato-but-why-didn-t-they-do-it-55561
I claim b/s on that. And you are invested in ramping Tesla.
Law is accreting around this issue.
The idea that this issue will stop self driving, is already disproven.
People need to get over zero deaths bullshit. It was bad during Covid, it's insane now.
Watch the videos of FSD. It has made significant strides forward. Completely hands and feet off navigation from point to point by touching the start button. Through parking garages. City streets. Freeways. Snow-covered back lanes in the dark. Moving around construction crews and extracting itself from blocked in parking spots. This is what the more recent updates have delivered - even on the older hardware 3 vehicles like my own Model Y.
Yes, the vehicles aren't completely fault free. But neither are Waymo. But it's coming.
Basically Tesla’s self driving is looking more and more like vapourware thanks to bad design choices
Their system is based around the operators dealing with outliers. The outlying cases were then supposed to feed into better software, so that over time, the operators would have to make fewer and fewer interventions. And the interventions would be at a higher level - rather than manually steering the car out if the issue, selecting an option of what to tell the car to do.
They claim that the interventions are low and still falling. The truth of the level of intervention is the key here.
"Watch the videos of FSD."
Yes. Many of which appear to be somewhat (ahem) carefully curated. I might suggest you look at the videos of FSD *failing*...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5y0g2gnjrqo
At the urology department of Burnley General Hospital, 26-year-old Ryan (not his real name) is having a drug solution inserted through a catheter - part of his treatment for a condition known as ketamine bladder. This procedure will not completely reverse the damage inflicted by Ryan's previous addiction to the Class B drug, but it will help him manage the symptoms.
Ketamine, a powerful horse tranquiliser and anaesthetic, is a licensed drug and can be prescribed medically. However, when misused, it can cause serious and sometimes permanent damage to the bladder. The hospital is watching Ryan for signs of kidney failure, too. He worries about finding a girlfriend and having children. But he is stoical when he talks about passing blood and having to urinate numerous times a day.
"You could not be a ketamine addict for 30 years, 20 years," he says. "You'd die."
And the US military-industrial-complex is one powerful lobby.
https://x.com/reformexposed/status/1894074172613030259?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
As I said, I am skeptical about automation. But it's coming. The challenge is going to be when one of these automated vehicles is involved in a horrible mess and get legally instructed to shut the service down. In the litigious US that is also coming...
I'm not denying automation *may* come. What I'm arguing about is that the implementations we have at the moment are all very limited. Egregiously so in the case of Tesla, given their lies over the years.
And that's the issue. Musk and Tesla's lies. That is what they are. Lies.
Witness the Robotaxi shite I showed earlier from 2019. And there is much, much more.
Edit: why do no other mainstream manufacturers with *better* systems need to lie like that? Why don't they need a bunch of Elon stans hyping up every breath their hero makes?
A slightly perverse header, with its reference to Orville.
Thought 1 - How kind of @TSE to pick up my Orville reference.
Thought 2 - Has this gone before. The earliest I could find was by @SimonStClare to Orville being incinerated by Australians, like Joan of Arc, in a conversation about the famous Alex-Salmond-showing-his-jockstrap mannequin sacrificed at Lewes:
I think in Perth, they once burnt Orville the Duck. – Where was the outrage then..? *
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/459753/#Comment_459753
It becomes problematic, because the algorithm confuses "Orville" with the end of "Torvill", so it runs into references to Ed Milliband being like Torvill and Dean.
Thought 3 - Nonny-Nonny-Nigel in a Pampers advert, complete with pipe.
At his point I gave up, revolted, and went in search of a boiled hegg.
------------------------
* That same exchange contains @Andy_JS being ... @AndyJS :
AndyJS said:
Sussex police are investigating whether a crime has been committed with the burning of an Alex Salmond effigy in Lewes.
They didn't burn it.
http://www.thecourier.co.uk/news/scotland/boom-lewes-did-blow-up-an-alex-salmond-effigy-1.668480
More seriously, we're starting to get papers that suggest that Waymo cars are, in the same operating environment, causing less damage than regular drivers.
I really want autonomous cars. It'd be blooming useful.
Why are we there?
At the moment we're progressing toward a situation where Trump's America:
1. Gets rich on Ukrainian minerals
2. Gets Europe to do all the military heavy lifting to guard America's minerals
3. Makes peace with Russia
4. Europe still sanctions Russia and is still shivering due to energy sanctions
I mean do we have 'easy mark' written across our forehead?
Self driving in general seems to have been stuck in the “deeply impressive, but not actually /there/ yet” pit of doom for years at this point.
He also hates Britain, and has attacked us in nasty ways before (Litvinenko, Salisbury etc).
Then there's the moral issue: why should countries who do not want to live under the thumb of a fascist state have to?
Do you want to?
Sir Keir has his defence deal with the Treasury locked in first, so he can talk to the self-obsessed one about it, to see if he can swerve tariffs - whilst starting to do quietly what needs to be done re:defence, which they have been doing steadily since last July. *
One hopes that when the Defence Review materialises, the Treasury will be bent over and BFONTed, but I'm not holding my breath.
* They are afaics gradually burying the legacy of the Cameron 2010-2012 -20% increase in defence spending. There are still things to be unwound like the pilot training chastity belt, and we have to see whether changes will actually work.
And, TBF, things the Headless Chicken Party had been doing in certain respects for some time through a couple of decent Defence Secretaries, the pre-election lying-their-heads-off period notwithstanding.
You have endless examples of the law of unintended consequences when political sound bites become legislation. Some are almost impossible to realise in real life. See sending goods to Northern Ireland.
Lots of discussion on here about the right/wrong policies but a bit light on what happens when translated into a real world situation.
Being in NATO wouldn't have stopped Russia invading other countries but would have allowed Russia to block any NATO action.
As for techbro stans, surely its very simple. Tech stocks are a ponzi scheme. You need to bring in early investors. You then need the price to rise so that (a) the early investors get a return and (b) more investors come in. The sillier companies never make a profit and all the money in circulation is from investors - ponzi. The better ones make a profit from bits and lose a fortune from others. None of the companies offering instant delivery are offering a viable business model. So you need to ramp.
Strip all the future automation away and Tesla would be worth a tenth of the value. Still a very good car company, still revolutionising car manufacturing so that you can make healthy profits. But without the AI automation guff. And don't get me started on the robot. I assume that somewhere inside Tesla there must be a Martin Curry character in despair at the attention Gerald is giving to the C5...
So it is unlikely to make difference to their current support though it could limit the capacity of Farage to get the voters he needs to become PM.
Gill is no longer a member of Reform
https://davidallengreen.com/2025/02/the-fog-of-lawlessness-what-we-can-see-and-what-we-cannot-see-in-the-current-confusions-in-the-united-states/
The Chinese economy is having issues.
The American economy…. Well…
However, they should have also used that burned political capital to get rid of the triple lock for good.
Most African leaders are elected too now
It won't be worth the paper it's written on. Ukraine have had "cast iron" agreements with Putin before and he will simply shred them once he gets what he wants. Ditto Trump.
NATO vetos only apply to *some* things, such as new applicants.
NATO was deliberately designed as the opposite to earlier, rigid treaty systems. Sub groupings and other alliances are actually encouraged - see the UK + Northern European states stuff.
This is a treaty system that encompasses Turkey and Greece. Two countries that have a semi-cold war going on between each other.
Both Reform voters and Reform possibles are split. Many are of course populist 'strong man' extremists glad to have a party to support. But many are not. They are ordinary UK punters who belive (wrongly) that complex problems have simple solutions, fed up with mainstream politics just as millions of Americans were fed up with Democrats.
And I'm not sure how it would vary.
Here, with the Leeanderthal Man, I think that 'dunno's who would support him by inertia, especially if there is a 'he helped me' or 'I can't stand THAT' factor.
Do we have a model for where Reform are the "none of the above" vote?
One factor I would speculate about is areas with either way below average or way above average visibly ethnic minority population. For the first, tropes stick because there is little personal experience tp deomstrate that they are mainly untrue, whilst for the other it's "look at all those Mosques 'threatening your Britishness'".
Here in North Notts, the most detectible minority is probably Polish (eg Polish on the login screen at my GP), who have been a subject of tactical political demonisation in the past.
If Labour wants to go under 20% that is the way
If they can’t change the mood music by getting some actual results, they are heading for an epic pounding.
The nation’s voters don’t see the genius in being told that their taxes are going up and bin collections are moving from bi-weekly to once a month. Yes, this may or may not be the fault of the national government, but that’s who gets the blame.
The nation’s voters will look at the options available and it’s either Reform or Labour. Labour will almost certainly be re-elected.
That way the oldies squatting in their 5-bed properties in central London might have some actual incentive to move out to somewhere cheaper & those houses can be occupied by the families that actually need the space.
This move would, obviously, have no electoral downsides whatsoever.
Ref: 25% (-2 from 16-17 Feb)
Lab: 24% (-1)
Con: 22% (+1)
Lib Dem: 16% (+2)
Green: 8% (-1)
SNP: 3% (=)
https://x.com/yougov/status/1894318885240803708?s=61&t=c6bcp0cjChLfQN5Tc8A_6g
Look at recent polls, it is quite clear Trump’s economic strategy is failing. Reform offering more of that will come to be seen as a big error.
I may yet be wrong but for now, I’m sticking with Labour re-elected in some form.
We need significant reforms of health, education, social services and tax
We need to get value for money - so much of your money is being wasted by bureaucracy and silly agendas like equality officers
We need to make work pay, and that means cutting the cost of living
We need to restore pride in our communities, our country and in ourselves
We need to stop our town and cities falling into disrepair by fixing the pavements and roads and reopening the shops
Elect a Reform government and we'll cut the waste and the fraud which We All Know is there, and make our country fit for purpose again.
None of these are remotely easy. Many are contradictory. But there is enough truth in each point to sound compelling, especially if it can tie in with the massive fraud and waste which these voters believe is there to cut.
"Are you thinking what we're thinking?" asked Michael Howard, to be answered with "oh hell no" by the electorate. But reverse it - "We're thinking what YOU'RE thinking" and Reform can absolutely smash it.
The key to it? Labour's pledge card. 5 things we'd do. Simplistic but ambitious. Easy to attack but hard to disprove. On continuous repeat until they become ingrained. Once the pledges become the truth, its practically impossible to disarm them with facts.
Very very few people can ever pull this off. Blair did. Farage can.
Labour's problem is that they think they can make incremental changes to a broken system and have it pay off. They can't, and it won't. You're mentioning waiting lists - they won't get the credit for wait times being slightly shorter when you can't see a GP and hospitals remain in crisis with a drastic shortage of beds and medical staff.