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Reform’s Trump love presents problems for Farage – politicalbetting.com

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  • Farage trying to work out how he extracts himself without his crazy friends trying to take his leadership away….
    His crazy friends might already be working on replacing Farage. Look at Musk's volte face on the $100 million. Elon now promotes Rupert Lowe MP and Twixer.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,795
    maxh said:

    I can have a go:
    - too much alienation from other humans and from natural processes (working the land, cooking, travel as a challenge)
    - too much inconsequential choice
    - too few contrasts (eg the seasons, getting through the winter on shrivelled apples and potatoes and then appreciating in-season fruit and veg later in the year etc)
    - awareness of the morally repugnant disparity between the way we live and the way the poorest on the planet live
    - etc

    I'm not arguing to go back to any of this stuff as it comes with huge downsides, but our modern capitalist system is very alienating.
    Relative peer pressure/envy - “why don’t I have a nice house like those on TV/glossy magazine? Why are my holidays to X instead of an ocean villa in Mauritius? why….”
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,255

    I haven't said it's OK to make shit up.

    We are in a context where Russia and her supporters are seeking to justify a war of aggression against Ukraine. They do this in various ways. One way they do this is to talk about NATO expansion. That's the only reason we're talking about this. Otherwise, it would be a niche discussion for historians alone.

    In that context, your wording -- "It's a simple yes/no question: were promises (however non-binding and however different the context then) given to the USSR that NATO wouldn't expand eastward?" -- collapses a complex situation into a simple dichotomy. You demand a yes/ no answer. You explicitly exclude the non-binding nature of any comments and the different context. The result you get is a "yes". That "yes" then feeds into a Russian narrative as, without its context, it seems to legitimise that entire narrative.

    A better question would allow for something more than yes/no. It would address the context and the nature of the promises made. For example: "How did NATO discuss possible expansion with the Soviet Union when the Iron Curtain fell; and how did the situation around NATO expansion change in the following years as the Soviet Union collapsed?" Or one could just directly ask, "How have narratives about NATO evolved in Russia and how have they been used to justify expansionism?"
    Have you all become complete idiots? Someone posted a flat denial that any promise was ever made. That is false. Goodbye.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,329

    @SouthamObserver has turned into a pointless partisan.
    That’s why people are reluctant to change their minds, and do the right thing. No one rejoices over the sinner who repents. Rather they jeer and mock at him.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,083

    I see you've reached the mystifyingly horny part of your hangover.
    PHOEBE.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,274
    edited February 20
    Cookie said:

    I enjoy using the word mustelid tremendousy, but I think I've only ever seen one in the wild. A mink in Wythenshawe. So it wouldn't be too hard a pleasure to forego. I'm keeping nodding vigorously.

    Badgers are mustelids, aren't they? But I've only ever seen dead ones.
    Badgers are indeed mustelids

    But I specified SMALL mustelids so you can keep badgers

    I get a massive thrill out of seeing mustelids in the wild. I’ve seen all of them in the UK I think - stoat, weasel, mink, polecat - only missing one is pine marten (very rare). A genuine thrill. And then all the weird ones abroad!

    I’d be loathe to give that up so I reckon I’d give up “nodding vigorously”. I’d probably adopt a new technique of tilting my head slightly to the right and saying, in a slow voice, “so right”! That would actually be more impressive than nodding. Nodding is so fucking boring. Sort of thing @kinabalu does after golf

    However what happens in a crowded place where people can’t hear my laconic “so right”. Well then I’d forewarn everyone. I’d just send out an email beforehand saying “I’m not allowed to nod vigorously so if I agree with you a lot I’ll stand up and hop around the room” which totally puts that problem to bed
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,083
    Sean_F said:

    That’s why people are reluctant to change their minds, and do the right thing. No one rejoices over the sinner who repents. Rather they jeer and mock at him.
    Absolutely.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,274
    kamski said:

    Have you all become complete idiots? Someone posted a flat denial that any promise was ever made. That is false. Goodbye.
    Now you understand @sandpit
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,329

    I don't understand how the better people's lives materially seem to get, the less happy they are?

    The human condition is truly weird.
    As a species, we love to foul our own nests.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,943
    edited February 20
    Cookie said:

    I enjoy using the word mustelid tremendousy, but I think I've only ever seen one in the wild. A mink in Wythenshawe. So it wouldn't be too hard a pleasure to forego. I'm keeping nodding vigorously.

    Badgers are mustelids, aren't they? But I've only ever seen dead ones.
    Go for a run/cycle at dawn around any UK city with a bit of green space and you'll see badgers scurrying around. They are more timid than urban foxes.

    Dawn is seriously underrated. Head out an hour before sunrise and you are just one animal among thousands. And then the clatter of humanity presents itself.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,083

    There are also some hot men on this planet. Beautiful hot men etc
    Yeah, but no. Well, OK, if you want (more for the rest of us) but it's the hair, the smooth soft skin, the wonderful smell, the wonderful form, the empathy, the TLC, the beauty..

    Did I mention the form?

    Men are bony, hairy, hard, aspergy and misanthropic. Also a bit aggressive.

    Forget gay, I honestly don't know why there aren't more lesbians.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,948
    Sean_F said:

    That’s why people are reluctant to change their minds, and do the right thing. No one rejoices over the sinner who repents. Rather they jeer and mock at him.
    The problem is that, over Ukraine and Trump, Boris is still trying to have his cake and eat it.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,274
    OTTERS!!!
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,381
    edited February 20

    It's fun, and I'm actually having quite a decent time, but it's costing me thousands.

    I don't know how they get away with it. But the place is always full, so they have their business model uber-tight.
    We did center parcs once when my kids were young (20 years ago). It was in the Netherlands. I seem to recall we enjoyed it, so I am not sure why we didn't do it again. Our holiday of choice for many years with young children was Canvas or Eurocamp in France and then later organising it myself. Avoided the big touristy ones. Cheapish and really enjoyable.

    PS Should add it isn't real camping. It's for softies. Beds, fridge, etc.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,473

    The problem is that, over Ukraine and Trump, Boris is still trying to have his cake and eat it.
    As seen by his “muscular “ figure.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,651
    Eabhal said:

    Go for a run/cycle at dawn around any UK city with a bit of green space and you'll see badgers scurrying around. They are more timid than urban foxes.

    Dawn is seriously underrated. Head out an hour before sunrise and you are just one animal among thousands. And then the clatter of humanity presents itself.
    She is, but I was always more of a Jennifer Saunders fan myself.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,329

    Relative peer pressure/envy - “why don’t I have a nice house like those on TV/glossy magazine? Why are my holidays to X instead of an ocean villa in Mauritius? why….”
    I understand it, but I don’t have it to that degree.

    I remember once arguing this with @Topping. I was puzzled why anyone would wish to spend tens of millions, buying a row of houses in central London, and knocking them into one. Why would you care?
  • maxhmaxh Posts: 1,571
    kamski said:

    You can read the actual documents there.

    Chatham House says "the USSR was never offered a formal guarantee on the limits of NATO expansion post-1990" which is exactly what I have also said.

    Frankly I find the responses to me posting a factual statement backed up with documentary evidence are fucking nuts and I'm not going to waste any more time on this forum you have mostly gone crazy.
    Can we please stop with the flouncing?

    This forum is interesting precisely because people disagree, the more vehemently the better imo, as long as it's coherent and not personal.

    If you get wound up, go cool off somewhere then come back with a witty (or devastatingly accurate) riposte. Or just mentally tick that person off your ignore list.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,083
    kjh said:

    We did center parcs once when my kids were young (20 years ago). It was in the Netherlands. I seem to recall we enjoyed it, so I am not sure why we didn't do it again. Our holiday of choice for many years with young children was Canvas or Eurocamp in France and then later organising it myself. Avoided the big touristy ones. Cheapish and really enjoyable.
    Yeah, Eurocamp is a cracking shout when my youngest is a couple of years older.
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,333

    Perhaps we are a step closer to cleaning up bad cctv footage of ne'er-do-wells, and sharpening up early films and television programmes. Hollywood and the streamers might be working on it already.
    Amongst other techniques, Peter Jackson used machine frame creation and machine sharpening when he was cleaning up the low FPS raw footage used in They Shall Not Grow Old.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,083
    Leon said:

    OTTERS!!!

    It comes to a pretty pass when you're talking about otters, and I'm talking about women; the rest of pb is talking about the failings of humanity, and possibly our inevitable doom.

    Where else on the Interwebz would you get this?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,867

    I don't understand how the better people's lives materially seem to get, the less happy they are?

    The human condition is truly weird.
    Perhaps material progress isn't the solution?
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,943
    Leon said:

    Badgers are indeed mustelids

    But I specified SMALL mustelids so you can keep badgers

    I get a massive thrill out of seeing mustelids in the wild. I’ve seen all of them in the UK I think - stoat, weasel, mink, polecat - only missing one is pine marten (very rare). A genuine thrill. And then all the weird ones abroad!

    I’d be loathe to give that up so I reckon I’d give up “nodding vigorously”. I’d probably adopt a new technique of tilting my head slightly to the right and saying, in a slow voice, “so right”! That would actually be more impressive than nodding. Nodding is so fucking boring. Sort of thing @kinabalu does after golf

    However what happens in a crowded place where people can’t hear my laconic “so right”. Well then I’d forewarn everyone. I’d just send out an email beforehand saying “I’m not allowed to nod vigorously so if I agree with you a lot I’ll stand up and hop around the room” which totally puts that problem to bed
    Pine Martens are pretty easy to spot. You need to spend more time in Scotland.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,329

    Yeah, but no. Well, OK, if you want (more for the rest of us) but it's the hair, the smooth soft skin, the wonderful smell, the wonderful form, the empathy, the TLC, the beauty..

    Did I mention the form?

    Men are bony, hairy, hard, aspergy and misanthropic. Also a bit aggressive.

    Forget gay, I honestly don't know why there aren't more lesbians.
    It’s a piece of good luck for men at any rate.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,798
    Sean_F said:

    That’s why people are reluctant to change their minds, and do the right thing. No one rejoices over the sinner who repents. Rather they jeer and mock at him.
    Possibly they do. But given Johnson is the sinner lashing out at everyone pointing out his hypocrisy and he has absolutely no intention of repenting, the rejoicing takes a different direction.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,427

    I don't understand how the better people's lives materially seem to get, the less happy they are?

    The human condition is truly weird.
    People judge their lives by looking at others and the exposure to the fabulous lifestyles that some have now profoundly depresses those who cannot have the same. Quite a few on PB are very wealthy (six figures salaries) and some ostentatious travel.

    By comparison with all of human history most people have never had it so good, but c.f. to what you see on social media?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,517
    Question for the House:

    Is it possible to ward off the collapse of your world view by talking about bananas?

    IMO it isn't. However I'm open to dissent.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,427

    God, there are some hot women on this planet.

    Is that the reason for existing?

    Beautiful hot women to taunt and tantalise us. But, oh, what a joy. What pleasure.

    Who would be gay?

    Idiots.

    Phoebe just walked by again, did she?
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,689
    Eabhal said:

    Go for a run/cycle at dawn around any UK city with a bit of green space and you'll see badgers scurrying around. They are more timid than urban foxes.

    Dawn is seriously underrated. Head out an hour before sunrise and you are just one animal among thousands. And then the clatter of humanity presents itself.
    I very much like the dawn. Though I hate getting up.
    When I was a student, especially in summer, I got a bit nocturnal. I'd write essays at night, then head out about dawn to go and type them up in the all-night computer rooms. I loved being out and about at dawn. No mustelids, but birds, quiet and fresh air and magical light. I'd then emerge from the computer rooms about 8am, and the world would be full of noise and petrol fumes.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,837
    Eabhal said:

    Go for a run/cycle at dawn around any UK city with a bit of green space and you'll see badgers scurrying around. They are more timid than urban foxes.

    Dawn is seriously underrated. Head out an hour before sunrise and you are just one animal among thousands. And then the clatter of humanity presents itself.
    Leave Dawn alone; you'll get Casino started again.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,487

    People judge their lives by looking at others and the exposure to the fabulous lifestyles that some have now profoundly depresses those who cannot have the same. Quite a few on PB are very wealthy (six figures salaries) and some ostentatious travel.

    By comparison with all of human history most people have never had it so good, but c.f. to what you see on social media?
    I guess up to social media people could really only compare themselves to their neighbours / friends / family so the comparisons made sense.

    Now they can compare themselves to fakes on social media who seem little better or even worse than themselves yet have a better lifestyle and that creates a significant issue.

    Another part is that I suspect people only put good things on social media and hide the bad news / events from view
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,016

    It comes to a pretty pass when you're talking about otters, and I'm talking about women; the rest of pb is talking about the failings of humanity, and possibly our inevitable doom.

    Where else on the Interwebz would you get this?
    Some idiot will swing by shortly and start on about political bets.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,016
    Leon said:

    OTTERS!!!

    Definitely trade in bananas for otters.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,867

    Yeah, but no. Well, OK, if you want (more for the rest of us) but it's the hair, the smooth soft skin, the wonderful smell, the wonderful form, the empathy, the TLC, the beauty..

    Did I mention the form?

    Men are bony, hairy, hard, aspergy and misanthropic. Also a bit aggressive.

    Forget gay, I honestly don't know why there aren't more lesbians.
    Yeah.
    But when you're horny a bloke is much quicker to sort.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,274
    maxh said:

    Can we please stop with the flouncing?

    This forum is interesting precisely because people disagree, the more vehemently the better imo, as long as it's coherent and not personal.

    If you get wound up, go cool off somewhere then come back with a witty (or devastatingly accurate) riposte. Or just mentally tick that person off your ignore list.
    Then tell the Trump Derangement Nappy Wearers to shut the fuck up. We’ve had 24 hours of them continuously shitting themselves in public and then flinging the poo at anyone who dares to disagree in the slightest - and my god they are boring

    I mean, @bondegezou. How do you even get as boring and self righteous as that clueless prick?

    Let them shut up for a week
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,333
    In happier news, the odds of ‘Big Rock 2032’ actually hitting us appear to have dropped back down to 1 in 67.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,133

    PHOEBE.
    JENRICK
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,517
    kamski said:

    Have you all become complete idiots? Someone posted a flat denial that any promise was ever made. That is false. Goodbye.
    Hope not. You're a distinctive (in a good way) poster.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,133
    maxh said:

    Can we please stop with the flouncing?

    This forum is interesting precisely because people disagree, the more vehemently the better imo, as long as it's coherent and not personal.

    If you get wound up, go cool off somewhere then come back with a witty (or devastatingly accurate) riposte. Or just mentally tick that person off your ignore list.
    If people want to flounce, then let them.

    I just wish when they did they weren't to vain and self-centred as to make a song and dance about it. If you are going then just go.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,735

    There are also some hot men on this planet. Beautiful hot men etc
    Some of us even post on this very blog.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,689

    Yeah, Eurocamp is a cracking shout when my youngest is a couple of years older.
    When my kids were your kids' ages, or thereabouts, we did farm holidays in Cornwall. It was great, and relatively cheap, being not on the coast. There were about 15 self catering cottages - big enough so the kids could make friends, small enough so that they could go off relatively independently to the playground. There'd be a tour of the animals for feeding and collecting eggs each morning, and then we'd go off to the beach or some other tourist attraction in the afternoon. Did it for about three summers. Idyllic.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,837
    At least one publication appreciates the irrelevance of Rubio and Kellogg.

    Steve Witkoff emerges as force in Trump’s foreign policy
    https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5154087-trump-special-envoy-steve-witkoff/

    Witkoff possesses the necessary expertise lacking in traditional Washington; he's a real estate investor.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,381
    Leon said:

    Then tell the Trump Derangement Nappy Wearers to shut the fuck up. We’ve had 24 hours of them continuously shitting themselves in public and then flinging the poo at anyone who dares to disagree in the slightest - and my god they are boring

    I mean, @bondegezou. How do you even get as boring and self righteous as that clueless prick?

    Let them shut up for a week
    Hells bells talk about pot and kettle. The irony meter just exploded.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,837
    Leon said:

    Then tell the Trump Derangement Nappy Wearers to shut the fuck up.
    Check out your own kecks.
  • I'm of the feeling that we have seen peak Reform for the time being. Not sure they have that much more space to go.

    Find Out Now
    @FindoutnowUK
    ·
    1h
    Find Out Now voting intention:
    🟦 Reform UK: 28% (-1)
    🔴 Labour: 24% (+1)
    🔵 Conservatives: 20% (-1)
    🟠 Lib Dems: 12% (-)
    🟢 Greens: 10% (+1)
    Changes from 12th February
    [Find Out Now, 19th February, N=2,393]
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,133
    Leon said:

    OTTERS!!!

    Pocket.

    (A wrong answer on the Chase no less !!!)
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,274
    edited February 20
    Taz said:

    If people want to flounce, then let them.

    I just wish when they did they weren't to vain and self-centred as to make a song and dance about it. If you are going then just go.
    No no no

    Flouncing is one of the great PB arts. A really good flounce is a thing of unusual beauty

    Even better is the genuinely permanent flounce - like a kind of white stag - impossibly rare but exquisite when witnessed, on the silent edge of the forest of reality

    I myself have permanently flounced TWICE which is I think a record unlikely to be broken
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,133
    Leon said:

    No no no

    Flouncing is one of the great PB arts. A really good flounce is a thing of rare beauty

    Even better is the permanent flounce - like a kind of white stag - impossibly rare but exquisite when witnessed, on the silent edge of the forest of reality

    I myself have permanently flounced TWICE which is I think a record unlikely to be broken
    You kidding me right. MexicanPete flounced three times in one day as people were being nasty about Labour !!!! You have some way to go.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,867
    OK. A pro -Trump post...
    He seems to be the only one who can get that Quisling Farage to go to ground.
    For this, much thanks.
  • maxhmaxh Posts: 1,571
    Leon said:

    Badgers are indeed mustelids

    But I specified SMALL mustelids so you can keep badgers

    I get a massive thrill out of seeing mustelids in the wild. I’ve seen all of them in the UK I think - stoat, weasel, mink, polecat - only missing one is pine marten (very rare). A genuine thrill. And then all the weird ones abroad!

    I’d be loathe to give that up so I reckon I’d give up “nodding vigorously”. I’d probably adopt a new technique of tilting my head slightly to the right and saying, in a slow voice, “so right”! That would actually be more impressive than nodding. Nodding is so fucking boring. Sort of thing @kinabalu does after golf

    However what happens in a crowded place where people can’t hear my laconic “so right”. Well then I’d forewarn everyone. I’d just send out an email beforehand saying “I’m not allowed to nod vigorously so if I agree with you a lot I’ll stand up and hop around the room” which totally puts that problem to bed
    But what happens in the event you are meeting someone for the first time, perhaps with romance in mind, and it has got to the stage of your flirtatious conversation where you need to agree vigorously so as to make them feel you're on the same wavelength? However, you are in a crowded place (imagine horny Casino in the queue for the full body dryers at the sub-tropical paradise trying to think how to steer the conversation towards how much cheaper it would be if he and Phoebe shared the dryer rather than using it sequentially if this aids your mental picture).

    Your email needs to have reached Phoebe in advance, which poses a challenge.

    Luckily I think I have the solution: you could revive the sadly ignored viral letter. You are old enough to remember the one, surely. It has as it's header 'you must send this on to ten people in your address book or a mustelid will die' or somesuch.

    You need only announce your newfangled workaround for nodding vigorously in said viral letter and hey presto!
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,333
    Election Maps UK getting fed up with Twitter and the conspiracy bubble: https://x.com/electionmapsuk/status/1892295105999933885
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,733
    edited February 20

    I'm of the feeling that we have seen peak Reform for the time being. Not sure they have that much more space to go.

    Find Out Now
    @FindoutnowUK
    ·
    1h
    Find Out Now voting intention:
    🟦 Reform UK: 28% (-1)
    🔴 Labour: 24% (+1)
    🔵 Conservatives: 20% (-1)
    🟠 Lib Dems: 12% (-)
    🟢 Greens: 10% (+1)
    Changes from 12th February
    [Find Out Now, 19th February, N=2,393]

    I think you're right. For whatever reason, Find Out Now has been the most Reform-friendly pollster, and at best Reform are treading water with them.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,795
    Eabhal said:

    Go for a run/cycle at dawn around any UK city with a bit of green space and you'll see badgers scurrying around. They are more timid than urban foxes.

    Dawn is seriously underrated. Head out an hour before sunrise and you are just one animal among thousands. And then the clatter of humanity presents itself.
    Winter rowing on a river at dawn….
  • maxhmaxh Posts: 1,571
    kinabalu said:

    Question for the House:

    Is it possible to ward off the collapse of your world view by talking about bananas?

    IMO it isn't. However I'm open to dissent.

    No, but it is several steps better than flouncing.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,274
    Taz said:

    You kidding me right. MexicanPete flounced three times in one day as people were being nasty about Labour !!!! You have some way to go.
    No I’m talking about Permanent Flouncing. Stalking away from the site and never coming back, not even under a new name years later etc

    That’s exceptionally rare. I believe I’m the only pb-er who has done it twice
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,689
    Taz said:

    You kidding me right. MexicanPete flounced three times in one day as people were being nasty about Labour !!!! You have some way to go.
    Mexican Pete has flounced? When? Was it a perma-flounce?
  • maxhmaxh Posts: 1,571

    Winter rowing on a river at dawn….
    But the hands! Dear god the hands!!
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,735

    I'm of the feeling that we have seen peak Reform for the time being. Not sure they have that much more space to go.

    Find Out Now
    @FindoutnowUK
    ·
    1h
    Find Out Now voting intention:
    🟦 Reform UK: 28% (-1)
    🔴 Labour: 24% (+1)
    🔵 Conservatives: 20% (-1)
    🟠 Lib Dems: 12% (-)
    🟢 Greens: 10% (+1)
    Changes from 12th February
    [Find Out Now, 19th February, N=2,393]

    The more I look at these the more I suspect a proper Tory leader would have almost everything going for them right now. Gut Reform using Trump/Putin, steal some of their clothes and basically do Jim Hacker channeling Churchill. A lot of “we will take no lectures from our American cousins/friends criticise friends blah blah blah”.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,050
    Nigelb said:

    Check out your own kecks.
    That’s probably inadvisable unless wearing a hazmat suit.

    I’m genuinely baffled by @kamski today - normally an interesting and intelligent poster who seems to have got painted into an unnecessary corner.

    What s/he has said is:

    1) There are documents claiming informal assurances about NATO expansion were given to the USSR in existence. This is true. Nobody disputes this. Whether they are correct is a different question given they were written in a different time and context to push a particular policy goal.

    2) That if such assurances were given are not part of any treaty. Also true. Nobody disputes that.

    3) That the USSR and Russia are the same thing in diplomatic terms for treaties. Yes and no is the answer. Because Russia declared independence from the USSR its status as the successor state had to be negotiated over a period of two years, but it was so negotiated (with, ironically, a lot of arm twisting involved from the USA under Bush). But also, not relevant, as no such treaty was made about eastward expansion except for East Germany where the point is moot.

    4) Then gets *very* agitated when several people want to discuss these points.

    Genuinely surprised.

    Anyway, just getting to Berwick and the sun’s out. Later.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,795
    Sean_F said:

    I understand it, but I don’t have it to that degree.

    I remember once arguing this with @Topping. I was puzzled why anyone would wish to spend tens of millions, buying a row of houses in central London, and knocking them into one. Why would you care?
    For many people, success is relative.

    A new, slightly larger yacht at Monaco diminishes the happiness of everyone with a shorter… boat.

    They feel this intensely.

    See the number of people with mad, liar loans, so they can drive a 6 figure priced SUV on the salary of a junior estate agent.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,152
    edited February 20
    Cookie said:

    When my kids were your kids' ages, or thereabouts, we did farm holidays in Cornwall. It was great, and relatively cheap, being not on the coast. There were about 15 self catering cottages - big enough so the kids could make friends, small enough so that they could go off relatively independently to the playground. There'd be a tour of the animals for feeding and collecting eggs each morning, and then we'd go off to the beach or some other tourist attraction in the afternoon. Did it for about three summers. Idyllic.
    You need to try Center Parks Sherwood, possibly.

    There's a 3300 acre forest park next door called Sherwood Pines (Forestry England), with all the usual facilities - including cycling circuits at the usual levels but a little easier, orienteering and the rest.
  • maxhmaxh Posts: 1,571
    Leon said:

    Then tell the Trump Derangement Nappy Wearers to shut the fuck up.

    ...

    Let them shut up for a week
    Beware, or I shall put the free speech Nazis onto you.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,274
    edited February 20
    Cookie said:

    Mexican Pete has flounced? When? Was it a perma-flounce?
    Yes. He permanently flounced. It was unusual because after that the exact same person came back using the exact same name about three hours later - but @mexicanpete himself was never seen again

    What made it especially notable in the Annals of Flouncing was that the same guy using the same name managed to be exactly as boring and forgettable as himself

  • kinabalu said:

    Question for the House:

    Is it possible to ward off the collapse of your world view by talking about bananas?

    IMO it isn't. However I'm open to dissent.

    Bananas are genetically doomed and are another source of trade friction between Britain and America despite the fact neither of us grows the things. Banana republics have historically been on the receiving end of Uncle Sam's mailed fist but no-one talks about its treating Central and South America like the Russians treat theirs.

    So bananas are not a good topic imo. Nor is Topic since Mars stopped making them.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,867
    biggles said:

    The more I look at these the more I suspect a proper Tory leader would have almost everything going for them right now. Gut Reform using Trump/Putin, steal some of their clothes and basically do Jim Hacker channeling Churchill. A lot of “we will take no lectures from our American cousins/friends criticise friends blah blah blah”.
    Ignoring the 14 year record of grift, chaos and penury, that is.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,795
    Leon said:

    No no no

    Flouncing is one of the great PB arts. A really good flounce is a thing of unusual beauty

    Even better is the genuinely permanent flounce - like a kind of white stag - impossibly rare but exquisite when witnessed, on the silent edge of the forest of reality

    I myself have permanently flounced TWICE which is I think a record unlikely to be broken
    Your flounces are rubbish.

    The best ones are like a quadruple axle in the figure skating - the build up, the crowd on tenterhooks, the performance…
  • kjh said:

    Hells bells talk about pot and kettle. The irony meter just exploded.
    Chagos Islands.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,358

    Why should I keep it to myself?

    You're a bloke. You'd do exactly the same; I'm just saying it out loud.

    And I got a bit (a fair bit) of hair adjustment and eyelid fluttering from Phoebe which, whilst it might have been "training", put a bit of a spring in the step of this 42-year old.
    Yeah I don't want to seem judgy, just for me personally it seems a bit Swiss Toni. Of course I spend about 99% of my time noting the existence of attractive women and I'm sure I could offer you a run for your money in the fawning embarrassingly over a pretty waitress stakes.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,152
    edited February 20

    For many people, success is relative.

    A new, slightly larger yacht at Monaco diminishes the happiness of everyone with a shorter… boat.

    They feel this intensely.

    See the number of people with mad, liar loans, so they can drive a 6 figure priced SUV on the salary of a junior estate agent.
    They mainly need to grow out of materialism / consumerism, and grow up imo.

    One of my favourites quotes was from a friend on a not-generous income, doing what he wanted to do:

    "I go window shopping to look at all the things I don't need to buy."
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,867

    For many people, success is relative.

    A new, slightly larger yacht at Monaco diminishes the happiness of everyone with a shorter… boat.

    They feel this intensely.

    See the number of people with mad, liar loans, so they can drive a 6 figure priced SUV on the salary of a junior estate agent.
    I'm with Sean here.
    I've never really seen why anyone would be bothered.
  • Q. Why did the Russian cross road?

    A. "It wasn't me, it was the Ukrainians!"
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,689
    MattW said:

    You need to try Center Parks Sherwood, possibly.

    There's a 3300 acre forest park next door called Sherwood Pines, with all the usual facilities - including cycling tracks, orienteering and the rest.
    This is where we came in! (dig your way through the nested quotes). Nothing wrong with Sherwood Pines (though, as I said, Nottinghamshire doesn't really feel holiday-y) - except that when you're in Centerparcs in the UK it's frsutratingly difficult to leave the site. So in practice you don't end up taking advantage of the genuine tourist opportunities around it.
    But if I were to go back to Centerparcs in Sherwood, I would try my best to persuade my family to leave as often as possible.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,795
    MattW said:

    I'm inclined to ask yo where They mainly need to grow out of materialism / consumerism, imo.
    I recall one academic who, after a rant about the horrors of consumerism, had a rant about how someone in his dept. had more research students, producing more papers.

    It takes many forms, and it is part of human nature, really.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,274

    Your flounces are rubbish.

    The best ones are like a quadruple axle in the figure skating - the build up, the crowd on tenterhooks, the performance…
    Fie on you

    What you don’t realise is that I often flounce without telling people then I come back 3 minutes later. Only a Flouncemaster General can do that

    Indeed I remember once I flounced during the typing of a single word, yet then carried on typing the word less than half a second later. That kind of flouncing is elite stuff but is frankly wasted on most
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,735
    dixiedean said:

    Ignoring the 14 year record of grift, chaos and penury, that is.
    I reckon the right gobshite could repudiate the last few years and conjure up rose tinted memories of a more stable world under Cameron. Or even the moment just before Covid hit.

    Milliband had got some life out of the Labour brand by 2016; and Starmer did pure necromancy to revive the Labour corpse in 2021/2.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,795
    dixiedean said:

    I'm with Sean here.
    I've never really seen why anyone would be bothered.
    You are not addicted to relative consumerism, then.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,152
    maxh said:

    Beware, or I shall put the free speech Nazis onto you.
    You're back :smile: .

    (Unless I have inverted my parties and wrongly identified the protagonist :smile: - whatever you do it's impossible to leave PB as many times as Stephen Fry flounced off twitter.)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,837
    .
    ydoethur said:

    That’s probably inadvisable unless wearing a hazmat suit.

    I’m genuinely baffled by @kamski today - normally an interesting and intelligent poster who seems to have got painted into an unnecessary corner.

    What s/he has said is:

    1) There are documents claiming informal assurances about NATO expansion were given to the USSR in existence. This is true. Nobody disputes this. Whether they are correct is a different question given they were written in a different time and context to push a particular policy goal.

    2) That if such assurances were given are not part of any treaty. Also true. Nobody disputes that.

    3) That the USSR and Russia are the same thing in diplomatic terms for treaties. Yes and no is the answer. Because Russia declared independence from the USSR its status as the successor state had to be negotiated over a period of two years, but it was so negotiated (with, ironically, a lot of arm twisting involved from the USA under Bush). But also, not relevant, as no such treaty was made about eastward expansion except for East Germany where the point is moot.

    4) Then gets *very* agitated when several people want to discuss these points.

    Genuinely surprised.

    Anyway, just getting to Berwick and the sun’s out. Later.
    The cross purposes arise from looking at the NATO assurances as an enduring commitment (they weren't), and as a source of enduring resentment on Putin's part (they certainly are).
    The refusal to allow both things to be true while arguing the toss is where it all kicked off.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,795
    Leon said:

    Fie on you

    What you don’t realise is that I often flounce without telling people then I come back 3 minutes later. Only a Flouncemaster General can do that

    Indeed I remember once I flounced during the typing of a single word, yet then carried on typing the word less than half a second later. That kind of flouncing is elite stuff but is frankly wasted on most
    Balls

    A PB Flounce only happens if it is observed. Your basic Quantum Mechanics stuff.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,016
    Leon said:

    Fie on you

    What you don’t realise is that I often flounce without telling people then I come back 3 minutes later. Only a Flouncemaster General can do that

    Indeed I remember once I flounced during the typing of a single word, yet then carried on typing the word less than half a second later. That kind of flouncing is elite stuff but is frankly wasted on most
    Is each missing full stop one of these micro-flounces?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    Is each missing full stop one of these micro-flounces?
    More flouncing than a flamenco dancer.
  • maxhmaxh Posts: 1,571
    MattW said:

    You're back :smile: .

    (Unless I have inverted my parties and wrongly identified the protagonist :smile: - whatever you do it's impossible to leave PB as many times as Stephen Fry flounced off twitter.)
    You are indeed inverting the parties. I fear flouncing is not amongst my talents, I struggle to muster the requisite outrage.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,152
    edited February 20
    Cookie said:

    This is where we came in! (dig your way through the nested quotes). Nothing wrong with Sherwood Pines (though, as I said, Nottinghamshire doesn't really feel holiday-y) - except that when you're in Centerparcs in the UK it's frsutratingly difficult to leave the site. So in practice you don't end up taking advantage of the genuine tourist opportunities around it.
    But if I were to go back to Centerparcs in Sherwood, I would try my best to persuade my family to leave as often as possible.
    For cycling and wheeling, the National Trust are beginning to get a bit serious about improving things.

    One of *their* challenges is maintaining the integrity of their pay-boundary whilst encouraging through routes, and that they have been totally geared towards motor vehicles since about 1930 (my estimate) for their significant properties, and especially since the 1950s.

    I think there is probably something in the posh end of Youth Hostels, now they lean more towards separate rooms.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,837
    biggles said:

    The more I look at these the more I suspect a proper Tory leader would have almost everything going for them right now. Gut Reform using Trump/Putin, steal some of their clothes and basically do Jim Hacker channeling Churchill. A lot of “we will take no lectures from our American cousins/friends criticise friends blah blah blah”.
    A decent example of begging the question.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,933

    I don't understand how the better people's lives materially seem to get, the less happy they are?

    The human condition is truly weird.
    Maslow’s hierarchy coupled with access to more information.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,263
    It’s 8am in Washington, oh goody. What nuggets of world-changing cr*p are we going to get from The Orange One today?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,414
    FPT

    The only worthless analysis is your own.

    Mine is spot on. I literally started with a consideration of the manpower (I will keep using this term, as will almost everyone else, as we don't share your passo-wokery) for the army to deploy a warfighting division. The ships are the level for a credible bluewater navy that can defend our interests worldwide, calibrated against the 1998SDR, and updated for today's world, and the same for the RAF. It's absolutely the right analysis and absolutely what we need, and rightly so.

    You just don't like anybody else talking about defence but you. Same with cars, bikes and aircraft.

    You are a very boring man. As well as a wrong one.
    This is an interesting discussion. Personally I am actively against having a big standing army. I want defensive and offensive missile capability, then next priority naval capability. These are the most applicable to the genuine threats we face. By the time any invasion force gets past those, we'll all be in the army anyway. The only use for an army is being plopped somewhere in a foreign field to kill brown people, with dubious (to say the least) outcomes for national security. If we need to intervene in foreign conflicts, let's do naval stuff, ensuring supply lines remain open, blockades etc.. We used to send a gunship when there was a foreign policy issue - let's get back to that.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,394
    @brainthink.bsky.social‬

    Bingo. I keep telling people I know that there’s no grand plan here, or to anything he does. He’s not playing 4D chess. He’s a fascistic sociopath that seeks adoration and applause for everything he does, and he wants to be the focus of EVERYTHING.

    It’s that simple, folks, don’t overthink it.

    @gtconway.bsky.social‬

    Correct. He’s not capable of playing multidimensional chess. Or chess. Or checkers. Or tic-tac-toe. As one of his aides put it during Shit Show I, “he’s just eating the pieces” on the board.

    Nothing he does is strategic. He’s purely guided by narcissistic, sociopathic impulses at all times.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,735
    Nigelb said:

    A decent example of begging the question.

    Of course, one wouldn’t want the job for one’s self but if one’s colleagues….
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,517
    edited February 20
    maxh said:

    No, but it is several steps better than flouncing.
    I'll never flounce. One day I just won't be here and then that day will become a week, a month, a year, and still longer, until eventually all memory of me, and of everything I ever said, the betting calls, good and bad, the little jokes, good and bad, the bursts of whimsy, some pointless but many with an important message, is lost forever.
  • MoanRMoanR Posts: 25
    QUESTION.
    Has a journalist ever asked Musk which side he would have supported in WW2?
    He has expressed support for AfD, so it seems a reasonable question.

    How strong are the links between Nigel Farage and AfD?
    Should journalists be asking him the same question?

  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,930
    Good on Ed Davey for laying into Farage .

  • kamski said:

    Have you all become complete idiots? Someone posted a flat denial that any promise was ever made. That is false. Goodbye.
    No promise was ever made to Russia.

    Promises to the USSR ended with the dissolution of the USSR. Ukraine was a part of the USSR then, it's not since and no such commitment was ever made to Russia since Russia and Ukraine both declared independence from the USSR.
  • AnthonyTAnthonyT Posts: 141
    Battlebus said:

    She really is a dud, if her supporters don't mind me saying it.
    From the Times article quoted by @TSE, this is a pretty big clue -

    "(She) is less grateful than her promotion deserves and more entitled than professionals should be when selected by the PM for high office,”.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,867
    I know what will cheer youse up.
    Liz Truss has analysed the situation.

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/feb/20/liz-truss-cpac-speech
  • theProletheProle Posts: 1,294
    MattW said:

    Local Housing Allowance (which is the one that used to be called HB) is about £15.612bn, which is about half of what it was at peak. I'm not sure on the Social Sector / PRS split at present.

    That's a very remarkable drop, in a kind of "this is too good to be true" sort of a way. Any idea what is apparently driving it?
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,943
    biggles said:

    I reckon the right gobshite could repudiate the last few years and conjure up rose tinted memories of a more stable world under Cameron. Or even the moment just before Covid hit.

    Milliband had got some life out of the Labour brand by 2016; and Starmer did pure necromancy to revive the Labour corpse in 2021/2.
    Given Labour haven't revived leveling up, I think there's a gap there. Call them the London party between now and the next election.

    (This is why cancelling HS2 was so short-sighted. Why not force Labour to make that decision).
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,517

    Bananas are genetically doomed and are another source of trade friction between Britain and America despite the fact neither of us grows the things. Banana republics have historically been on the receiving end of Uncle Sam's mailed fist but no-one talks about its treating Central and South America like the Russians treat theirs.

    So bananas are not a good topic imo. Nor is Topic since Mars stopped making them.
    And somewhat unbelievably I've just had one. First for over a year.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,115
    kinabalu said:

    I'll never flounce. One day I just won't be here and then that day will become a week, a month, a year, and still longer, until eventually all memory of me, and of everything I ever said, the betting calls, good and bad, the little jokes, good and bad, the bursts of whimsy, some pointless but many with an important message, is lost forever.
    Like tears in rain..
  • theProle said:

    That's a very remarkable drop, in a kind of "this is too good to be true" sort of a way. Any idea what is apparently driving it?
    The year it peaked is when reforms like the cap and "bedroom tax" etc were introduced. So perhaps that has had an impact?

    Or it's still getting claimed in Universal Credit but isn't showing in those figures so the figures are wrong.

    One or the other would be my guess.
This discussion has been closed.