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The day the Europe and world changed – politicalbetting.com

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  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,425

    He probably is, but he is tarnished with so long in government. He won't attract the Reform voter and probably not the Lib Dem switchers, also Labour can easily pin their "tough decisions" on some very dodgy decisions he made as chancellor.
    You could perhaps compare him with Ken Clarke. In office, Clarke was hated by public sector unions and regarded as very abrasive, but he ended up being universally liked by centrists. Hunt could maybe pull off something similar with some careful image management.
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,258
    edited February 12
    Leon said:

    Here’s Jenrick on fly-tipping

    He genuinely has *it*

    Most people on PB will loathe this. But most people on PB are middlebrow 115 IQ centrist dads who like Radio 4 and think Rory Stewart is admirable and “clever”

    https://x.com/robertjenrick/status/1888141559247307138?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Very good.

    With a fair wind campaigning on such issues, Jendrick could go far. I wouldn't even put head of the local council as behind his reach.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 5,560
    Leon said:

    And yet Jenrick is good. He gets it. He uses social media very effectively. He’s a sharp and plausible speaker. He has the common touch (he’s not posh - arguably Kemi as an African haute bourgeois is posher than him)

    He’s actually a bit of a star. And he’s smart

    The trouble is he also comes across as an archetypal Tory shit and Alan bstard. Indeed he probably is all that

    But do the Tories have much choice? If they go for a pathetic wet centrist like Hunt, Stride or Cleverly they are finished and will turn into the Lib Dems

    Jenrick is the one guy who might simultaneously worry Reform AND Starmer

    The west is swinging hard right. This is not the time for Tories to tack to the centre, FFS
    On the other hand, dumping a leader so soon will make them look like they aren't a serious party.

    Which, like Jim Hacker said about a divided party, might be true - but they mustn't look it.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,274
    edited February 12

    Two countries? Three. Ukraine, Georgia and… Moldova! Arguably, Transnistria isn’t quite the same, but it has Russian “peacekeeping” troops defending a Russian-speaking population and there’s been talk of annexing it.
    I’ve actually been within three feet of the Russian “peacekeeping force” in Transnistria. Probably the only PBer that can say that

    It’s not that scary close up. But it does give me a reason to use my photo ration


  • TazTaz Posts: 17,116

    Magic money tree....
    Modern Monetary Theory
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,242
    Driver said:

    On the other hand, dumping a leader so soon will make them look like they aren't a serious party.
    Which was, of course, one consequence of ditching Truss, even though the sudden significant drop in support made them feel they had no choice.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,410

    For me the issue with Kemi's approach is she is trying to be calm and collected and talk about the details, but she's never going to beat a KC that way. She needs to go for more of a Boris-style bombastic approach with sarcasm and humour to get under Starmer's skin. Also throw a few curveballs.

    I would have opened with the fact that Margaret Thatcher became Con leader 50 years ago this week, while national Lab have had 9 male leaders (if he says how regrettable, then you can suggest he resigns) Then pivot onto the Andrew Gwynne scandal and how it shows Lab to be sexist and how they hate the elderly.
    I would say she needs to do the following:
    - Always attack from a position of Tory strength. Economy, growth and taxation are OK subjects. Foreign policy and defending the UK is OK. Immigration a lot less so, partly because she hasn't firmly separated herself from the Government she was part of, or developed much of her own policy.
    - Have a devastating and personal attack - a hand-grenade effectively lined up for when she needs it.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,116

    Trump's lawyers filmed at a football match:-

    We lose every week
    We lose every week
    You're nothing special
    We lose every week

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iUfLg2hBVRw (13-second video of football chant, not Arsenal btw!)
    They’re Spurs fans ?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,082

    He probably is, but he is tarnished with so long in government. He won't attract the Reform voter and probably not the Lib Dem switchers, also Labour can easily pin their "tough decisions" on some very dodgy decisions he made as chancellor.
    He held his seat in a very LDy sympathetic area. And he did cut NI significantly plus increase pensions relief.

    No doubt in my mind he's a dry Tory. Trouble is, he has rat eyes and looks wet.

    But, I don't think he is.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,329
    @kle4 I used to know Bob Blackman, very well, when I lived in Kenton.

    He is remarkably good at appealing to Indian and Jewish voters, which is how he held a lot of Conservative council seats in Brent, from 1990-2010, and how he turned a seat like Harrow West (about 66% non-white), into a safe Conservatives seat.

    He started off TRG, but is now pretty right wing.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,082

    You could perhaps compare him with Ken Clarke. In office, Clarke was hated by public sector unions and regarded as very abrasive, but he ended up being universally liked by centrists. Hunt could maybe pull off something similar with some careful image management.
    "Centrists" - by which we mean established centre-left opinion - never like any Tory when they're in office.

    Then didn't even like Ted Heath.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,116

    I'm paying £50 a pop for my council to takeaway an old fridge freezer or mine on Friday.

    It's no wonder some people can't be arsed. Or other less reputable traders offer to "get rid of it" for a tenner, and then dump it.
    Won’t the local tatter take it for free ?

    I leave metal products on the lawn and someone will take it FOC for recycling. Either they come round or you can call them.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,274
    Ratters said:

    Very good.

    With a fair wind campaigning on such issues, Jendrick could go far. I wouldn't even put head of the local council as behind his reach.
    I very much had you in mind with the 115 IQ thingy
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,410

    Hunt is the best option.
    But you do have this unbeatable knack for getting it wrong.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,328
    .

    Wasn't Moldova/Transnistria in 1992, before Putin?
    Good point, well made.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,516

    You could perhaps compare him with Ken Clarke. In office, Clarke was hated by public sector unions and regarded as very abrasive, but he ended up being universally liked by centrists. Hunt could maybe pull off something similar with some careful image management.
    Hunt could be a Clarke then, you're saying, because Clarke used to be a Hunt?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,516
    edited February 12
    Leon said:

    I very much had you in mind with the 115 IQ thingy
    Lol, that's fine. Punching up.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,274
    kinabalu said:

    Lol, that's fine. Punching up.
    You’re 113
  • MJWMJW Posts: 2,005
    kle4 said:

    I think my view was that Kemi was a bigger risk but also potentially bigger reward, but that's an outsider's view obviously. From my perspective she's struggled to get attention, she might as well be a LD with the media attention she gets.
    Not a fan of hers but did not think she'd be quite this bad and could see how if played her cards well could be a reall challenge for Labour a seeming something new and fresh.

    I think it's down to a combination of lack of experience, laziness, arrogance, plus being very online and mistaking being up with what people are talking about on TwiX for the mood of the country or good strategy. She doesn't seem like someone who could take criticism well and learn from it.

  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,149
    edited February 12
    Ratters said:

    Very good.

    With a fair wind campaigning on such issues, Jendrick could go far. I wouldn't even put head of the local council as behind his reach.
    He forgot to mention who cut, then capped, the funding from local government which would be used to clean streets, and who was Secretary of State for Housing, Communities and Local Government for 2 years during that period.

    But that's Bobby J for you.
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,258

    I would say she needs to do the following:
    - Always attack from a position of Tory strength. Economy, growth and taxation are OK subjects. Foreign policy and defending the UK is OK. Immigration a lot less so, partly because she hasn't firmly separated herself from the Government she was part of, or developed much of her own policy.
    - Have a devastating and personal attack - a hand-grenade effectively lined up for when she needs it.
    I think the Tories need to make a meal culpa on migration. It's going to be the thorn in their side all parliament. From Reform obviously, but also from Labour as they succeed in reducing net migration very significantly from Tory highs.

    Even as a Lib Dem I think migration was at a unsustainably high level.

    Every time they bring it up the finger will be pointed at them. Best to say sorry and promise they've changed than they to pretend it never happened.
  • Taz said:

    They’re Spurs fans ?
    From the comments: Context: these are actually west ham fans after losing to man city 6-0 at the Etihad during the 2013-14 EFL cup semifinal 1st leg
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,274
    The food in transnistria/moldova is amazing

    As that photo shows. It’s the main market in the main (only?) town in transnistria

    I couldn’t work out why it was so good, not at first, but then I realised. It’s because they are so poor. Every single thing you eat is unprocessed. It comes from the ground. It’s either fresh that day or it’s pickled or salted. It’s European food (with Turkish/eastern elements) as it must have been 150 years ago

    There is no msg no nothing. No junk. They can’t afford it

    It is absolutely fucking delicious

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,110
    Leon said:

    We don’t have the money to save them all
    Just the ones that PB parents have their sprogs at.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,149
    edited February 12
    Taz said:

    They’re Spurs fans ?
    This is quite good, too:

  • MJW said:

    Not a fan of hers but did not think she'd be quite this bad and could see how if played her cards well could be a reall challenge for Labour a seeming something new and fresh.

    I think it's down to a combination of lack of experience, laziness, arrogance, plus being very online and mistaking being up with what people are talking about on TwiX for the mood of the country or good strategy. She doesn't seem like someone who could take criticism well and learn from it.

    I do wonder if Kemi's PMQs windbaggery is actually a misguided Conservative tactic to get video for CCHQ's social media team to clip up. Each week she blunders several times into the same elephant trap, and I'm not sure if it is easier to believe Kemi really is that stupid or that a whole team of CCHQ Eton and PPE interns is.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,516
    Leon said:

    You’re 113
    Yep. Over 67.

    And I eat what I want 🕺
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,274
    MattW said:

    This is quite good, too:

    Er, he’s Vice President and she is nowhere. Indeed lucky she’s not in jail
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,258
    Leon said:

    I very much had you in mind with the 115 IQ thingy
    You're long way off.

    I'll let you decide in which direction, mind.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,274
    Ratters said:

    You're long way off.

    I'll let you decide in which direction, mind.
    No, I’m precisely right
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,242
    Leon said:

    Er, he’s Vice President and she is nowhere. Indeed lucky she’s not in jail
    What does either of those things have to do with her actual words? You do appeal if you think the courts are wrong, and I'm sure the administration will. And even if she should be in jail for something that doesn't change the point either.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,846
    ...

    "Centrists" - by which we mean established centre-left opinion - never like any Tory when they're in office.

    Then didn't even like Ted Heath.
    That really isn't true. I knew lots of traditional Labour and Liberal voters in 1970 who lent their votes to Ted. Harold was quite a divisive figure and the print media hated him (not least because he had won two elections) It might of course have been Ted's stance on joining the Common Market. For that alone I'd have voted for him if I'd had a vote aged eight. Wasn't so keen on his Education Secretary mind.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,410
    Ratters said:

    I think the Tories need to make a meal culpa on migration. It's going to be the thorn in their side all parliament. From Reform obviously, but also from Labour as they succeed in reducing net migration very significantly from Tory highs.

    Even as a Lib Dem I think migration was at a unsustainably high level.

    Every time they bring it up the finger will be pointed at them. Best to say sorry and promise they've changed than they to pretend it never happened.
    Agree.

    Kemi has said she's taking ownership and drawn a line without taking ownership or drawing a line. Just flipping say sorry and admit you were wrong.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,274
    kle4 said:

    What does either of those things have to do with her actual words? You do appeal if you think the courts are wrong, and I'm sure the administration will. And even if she should be in jail for something that doesn't change the point either.
    Because she’s trying to be a lofty scold yet she’s actually a frightened loser. The combo is unfortunate and sounds like sad, peevish moaning
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,149
    edited February 12
    Leon said:

    Er, he’s Vice President and she is nowhere. Indeed lucky she’s not in jail
    As far as I can see it is just Chump's useful idiots putting forward conspiracy theories or trying political attacks.

    What has she been charged with by a jury of her peers?

    We have Trump's attitude to JD Vance:

    "Do you view JD Vance as your successor?"
    "NO".

    https://youtu.be/7tmPMVh1vIM?t=19
  • Driver said:

    On the other hand, dumping a leader so soon will make them look like they aren't a serious party.

    Which, like Jim Hacker said about a divided party, might be true - but they mustn't look it.
    Trouble is that the Conservatives have two options.

    One of them is to dump Badenoch, the other is to keep her.

    In slightly different ways, both options make them look like an unserious party.

    Pick your poison.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,410

    I do wonder if Kemi's PMQs windbaggery is actually a misguided Conservative tactic to get video for CCHQ's social media team to clip up. Each week she blunders several times into the same elephant trap, and I'm not sure if it is easier to believe Kemi really is that stupid or that a whole team of CCHQ Eton and PPE interns is.
    I support it from that perspective; Nigel talks over the head of his audiences for social too. But the actual questions being poor (as they were today) ruins it.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,060
    Mitch McConnell the sole GOP "No" on Tulsi Gabbard.

    Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha.

    Ha.

    Ha.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,921
    As many of you know, my politics tends towards the John Harris/Danny Dorling/Gary Stevenson axis, where poverty and quiet desperation exists. What I have noticed over the past few years is that they have either given up in fixing it or have realised that no solution is available due to the inability/learned helplessness of the state in taxing rich people.

    To encapsulate this depressing outlook, here is a lecture by Gary Stevenson (53 mins) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0jwCLwi_N70
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,242
    Leon said:

    Because she’s trying to be a lofty scold yet she’s actually a frightened loser. The combo is unfortunate and sounds like sad, peevish moaning
    Tastes will differ on that. But the reverse is that Vance and co frequently engage in perfomative whinging whether they win or lose, since they could just appeal like she says.
  • MJWMJW Posts: 2,005

    Agree.

    Kemi has said she's taking ownership and drawn a line without taking ownership or drawing a line. Just flipping say sorry and admit you were wrong.
    Their basic problem is that they want the rhetoric on a drastic cut to immigration (it will fall somewhat under Lab anyway) without the costs. Reform can promise the world safe in the knowledge that a) are the insurgents so can go a bit out there on stuff without so much scrutiny b) If they did get in it would be their main (only?) priority so would be willing to bear the costs of changing our economic and social model to do without migration.

    The Tories? They want to have their cake and eat it, as ever.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,242
    Pulpstar said:

    Mitch McConnell the sole GOP "No" on Tulsi Gabbard.

    Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha.

    Ha.

    Ha.

    What would someone have to do to NOT get confirmed in that position then?

    Also shows just how terrible scummy mcflorida face was as the initial AG pick.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,149
    kle4 said:

    What would someone have to do to NOT get confirmed in that position then?

    Also shows just how terrible scummy mcflorida face was as the initial AG pick.
    That's as National Intelligence Director, so Five Eyes is in the Freezer if it wasn't already.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/tulsi-gabbard-russian-connection-dni-trump-syria-b2692244.html
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,811
    edited February 12

    I support it from that perspective; Nigel talks over the head of his audiences for social too. But the actual questions being poor (as they were today) ruins it.
    It is the same every week. She crams two or more questions into one, so Starmer can pick which is easiest to answer. She makes speeches before pivoting to an often unrelated question. She gets involved in pointless arguments with Starmer. And this is even without blaming Starmer for the last Tory government.

    Prime Minister – The right hon. Lady complains about scripted answers; her script does not allow her to listen to the answer. [Hon. Members: “More!”] She asked me if we are going to change the law and close the loophole in question one—I said yes. She asked me again in question two—and I said yes. She asked me again in question three—it is still yes.
    https://hansard.parliament.uk/Commons/2025-02-12/debates/F7E78EB7-2109-491A-B52D-6674CF970C8C/Engagements
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,060
    kle4 said:

    What would someone have to do to NOT get confirmed in that position then?

    Also shows just how terrible scummy mcflorida face was as the initial AG pick.
    From senate majority leader to a complete irrelevance in his own party in just over a month. One of those "long time in politics" things.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,274
    kle4 said:

    Tastes will differ on that. But the reverse is that Vance and co frequently engage in perfomative whinging whether they win or lose, since they could just appeal like she says.
    kle4 said:

    Tastes will differ on that. But the reverse is that Vance and co frequently engage in perfomative whinging whether they win or lose, since they could just appeal like she says.
    Trump should just slam them all in prison. After all, that’s what they tried to do to him
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,666
    edited February 12
    kle4 said:

    What would someone have to do to NOT get confirmed in that position then?

    Also shows just how terrible scummy mcflorida face was as the initial AG pick.
    A few people have commented on what Gabbard’s appointment means for 5-eyes and wider UK intelligence sharing with the US, but while I hope that sensible people in our defence community are doing the necessary I fear the sort of complacency born of decades of seeing the USA as an ally will mean nothing changes, at least to start with.

    The US is at a crossroads and this may be temporary blip or a permanent shift, but the precautionary principle surely applies. We should be very careful about allowing sensitive information to get into the hands of people who are overtly sympathetic to our strategic foes.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,425
    MattW said:

    That's as National Intelligence Director, so Five Eyes is in the Freezer if it wasn't already.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/tulsi-gabbard-russian-connection-dni-trump-syria-b2692244.html
    Why do you think it follows that Five Eyes is in the freezer? In many domains I don't think that would even be possible.
  • Regarding the previous thread's header, the problem is that far too many people have not only not been getting richer, but have been getting poorer.

    'Equality' or 'growth' is one thing its fine to quibble over when everyone is getting richer. A smaller slice of a bigger pie is an OK thing to have.

    The problem is that not only some, but a great many people are getting a smaller slice of a bigger pie. Which is frigging pointless/awful to have.

    And that's not simply because 'the rich are getting richer' but because on average too often we're all getting poorer. We've been having many periods of "growth" which is "growth" in aggregate, but per capita a decline. If its a per capita decline, that's not growth in any meaningful sense.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,472

    More likely Oregon and Wahington would join and deprive the rump 47 of a contiguous Pacific coast and a warm water port. (Hawaii might join in too. Alaska less likely, but you can never be entirely sure of Alaskans.)
    That would be so funny. Trump concentrating on the Pacific having lost his own Pacific!
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 4,421
    Taz said:

    Won’t the local tatter take it for free ?

    I leave metal products on the lawn and someone will take it FOC for recycling. Either they come round or you can call them.
    Round here we call it freecycling.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,557
    MJW said:

    Not a fan of hers but did not think she'd be quite this bad and could see how if played her cards well could be a reall challenge for Labour a seeming something new and fresh.

    I think it's down to a combination of lack of experience, laziness, arrogance, plus being very online and mistaking being up with what people are talking about on TwiX for the mood of the country or good strategy. She doesn't seem like someone who could take criticism well and learn from it.

    I also didn't expect much of Kemi - but she seemed like a blank canvas so I had no particular expectations.

    But having watched/listened to her performances and interviews - there is a sense of arrogance. It reminds me of Masters students who have been told how amazing they are, without realising it was a leading question and not a statement of fact.

    I've also still no idea if she's ventured much outside of the M25 noose. Been to Northern Ireland? Wales? The Western Isles? Northumbria? No idea.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Mitch McConnell the sole GOP "No" on Tulsi Gabbard.

    Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha.

    Ha.

    Ha.

    An auspicious margin: 52-48.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,472

    You could perhaps compare him with Ken Clarke. In office, Clarke was hated by public sector unions and regarded as very abrasive, but he ended up being universally liked by centrists. Hunt could maybe pull off something similar with some careful image management.
    If the Tories want to form the next government, they will only do it with Hunt, or someone like Hunt, as leader.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,666
    edited February 12

    Regarding the previous thread's header, the problem is that far too many people have not only not been getting richer, but have been getting poorer.

    'Equality' or 'growth' is one thing its fine to quibble over when everyone is getting richer. A smaller slice of a bigger pie is an OK thing to have.

    The problem is that not only some, but a great many people are getting a smaller slice of a bigger pie. Which is frigging pointless/awful to have.

    And that's not simply because 'the rich are getting richer' but because on average too often we're all getting poorer. We've been having many periods of "growth" which is "growth" in aggregate, but per capita a decline. If its a per capita decline, that's not growth in any meaningful sense.

    Not so much a decline as flatlining (attached goes up to 2023. I think 2024 showed flat or a very slight uptick).

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/970672/gdp-per-capita-in-the-uk/

    It shows how we were left reeling by the two shocks of the financial crisis in 2008 and Covid in 2020. But even after the financial crisis we returned to reasonable year on year growth after 2 years of shrinkage. Since Covid we’ve just stagnated.

    The only other comparable period was 1973 to 1982, again triggered by two macro shocks but made worse by domestic factors.
  • Round here we call it freecycling.
    Was there not a recent controversy here about a woman being fined for fly-tipping that might have been freecycling? Unfortunately Vanilla's search facility is worth than useless.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,962
    This thread is slightly hysterical. The USA remains part of NATO and article 5 still applies. Just not to Ukraine - but then it never did. What has been kiboshed is Ukraine's ambition to join NATO soonish, but that would itself have stymied the chance of negotiaions
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,149

    Why do you think it follows that Five Eyes is in the freezer? In many domains I don't think that would even be possible.
    It can't sensibly be anywhere else.

    Trump himself is guilty of theft of Top Secret documents, casually displaying them to foreigners, and lying to, and actively deceiving, the FBI, to conceal them in his possession.

    As far back as November Trump was simply refusing to have his people security checked.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,425
    https://x.com/alexwickham/status/1889773926579941790

    New: Nigel Farage has broken from Donald Trump on Ukraine

    “I think Ukraine now joining NATO is almost an essential part of this peace deal,” Farage tells GB News tonight
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,480

    Trouble is that the Conservatives have two options.

    One of them is to dump Badenoch, the other is to keep her.

    In slightly different ways, both options make them look like an unserious party.

    Pick your poison.
    Or the other is just stick with her and hold the balance of power between Starmer and Farage in a hung parliament as a poll predicted today
  • Pulpstar said:

    From senate majority leader to a complete irrelevance in his own party in just over a month. One of those "long time in politics" things.
    McConnell is in his 80s and fell down the Senate steps last week. He is a frail party hack, but not aligned with MAGA. Ironically, it was he who saved Trump last time round.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,480
    Leon said:

    70-90% of universities will go bust in the next 5-15 years - or they will convert into something radically different
    It is more of a fees issue, just charge higher fees for courses with the highest earnings premium and costs to run and freeze them or cut them for the rest
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,962
    HYUFD said:

    Or the other is just stick with her and hold the balance of power between Starmer and Farage in a hung parliament as a poll predicted today
    In a three body scenario like that all three parties hold the "balance of power". It's a game of paper, scissors, rock

  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,258

    Regarding the previous thread's header, the problem is that far too many people have not only not been getting richer, but have been getting poorer.

    'Equality' or 'growth' is one thing its fine to quibble over when everyone is getting richer. A smaller slice of a bigger pie is an OK thing to have.

    The problem is that not only some, but a great many people are getting a smaller slice of a bigger pie. Which is frigging pointless/awful to have.

    And that's not simply because 'the rich are getting richer' but because on average too often we're all getting poorer. We've been having many periods of "growth" which is "growth" in aggregate, but per capita a decline. If its a per capita decline, that's not growth in any meaningful sense.

    Agreed and part of this is media reporting.

    GDP figures are already adjusted for inflation, which most people aren't aware of. So 1% growth often means the nominal GDP growth is 4%, but we have 3% inflation so we adjust for it. No one outside of central bank circles care about nominal GDP growth, or even know the term exists.

    We should take this a step further and start reporting GDP growth per capita. So if we have 1% population increase, that 1% GDP growth above is reported as 0%.

    I think that would correctly incentivise governments to focus on policies that improve the wellbeing of the average person, rather than just piling in more people to squeeze out a positive growth figure.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,557
    With apols for the AI news for those who dislike it all :

    https://x.com/sama/status/1889755723078443244

    OPENAI ROADMAP UPDATE FOR GPT-4.5 and GPT-5:
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,131
    edited February 12
    HYUFD said:

    It is more of a fees issue, just charge higher fees for courses with the highest earnings premium and costs to run and freeze them or cut them for the rest
    Problem with that simple logic is there is a large disparity between some courses, how crucial they are to UK economy and resultant pay. Medicine being the obvious one. But things like Chemistry has been less offered because it is very expensive to run, so quite a few universities have just closed them. However, it is really important to many aspects of a knowledge based economy. If they really charged the cost of running Chemistry, would be really hard to get people to do it versus some other sciences.

    I have said this for years, one of the biggest things they missed in 2010, was for certain crucial roles e.g. dentist, higher fees, but the government write off some of it every year you stay in the NHS.
  • MJWMJW Posts: 2,005

    I do wonder if Kemi's PMQs windbaggery is actually a misguided Conservative tactic to get video for CCHQ's social media team to clip up. Each week she blunders several times into the same elephant trap, and I'm not sure if it is easier to believe Kemi really is that stupid or that a whole team of CCHQ Eton and PPE interns is.
    It's an example of how vacademically smart people can behave like idiots if they are building from misconceptions about the world. She's from a weird right-wing online millieu - like those interns - that thinks it has its finger on the pulse of Britain but doesn't.

    That's not to say Britain is progressive or left-leaning, quite obviously it's not. But if you look at someone like Farage he knows his target voters inside out as he's spent decades cultivating them. He knows what makes them tick and how to raise issues that are salient with them and how they serve him and how to pick at a government's scab. Badenoch seems to think knowing whatever has got right-wing Twitter influencers hot under the collar this week is a substitute for that.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,820
    PJH said:

    I am appalled at what's likely to happen but...
    That seems to be a lot of people's line on imminent genocide.

    Collective punishment is not justified.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 5,173
    MaxPB said:

    He's simply codifying what previous US policy already was. Obama didn't support Ukraine in 2014, Biden pulled back from NATO and prioritised APAC. It was up to us in Europe to be ready to pay for our own defence, we've had 10 years since Ukraine was first invaded and relied on an increasingly detached US administration Dem or GOP. It was a mistake and continues to be a mistake. People like you who blame America for not protecting our border are the problem. Maybe we should cut benefits by £20bn per year and pay for the defence of our own border properly and not, as first world countries rely on others to do it for us.
    The UK defence budget as a percentage of GDP could be brought up to parity with that of the United States with an immediate increase of about £30bn. This is about 10% of the estimated total social security spend for this financial year, so on the face of it that sounds doable.

    Now, you, as a hypothetical new Work and Pensions Secretary, have got to decide who to impoverish. You can't get out of this by making the usual claims about clamping down on fraud, because Government has always been pitiful at dealing with the problem and in any case total losses to benefit fraud are estimated at about £7.5bn. So most of it is going to have to be swiped off genuine claimants, and it's not going to take long before you have to make some very nasty decisions. You could raise the whole sum by abolishing housing benefit, but then everyone who relies on it to afford their exorbitant rents ends up out on the streets (except for families with children, who all end up being housed by councils which promptly become insolvent.)

    Abolishing child benefit would raise about £13bn, but the nation's parents will despise you and the poorer ones will also be turning off the central heating or feeding the kids cheap bread and jam for dinner. You could decide that Universal Credit claimants are all just scroungers really and scrap that, which would earn you over £50bn but cut so many people off at the knees, working poor as well as unemployed, that you'd probably trigger civil unrest. Most of the rest of the benefits bill goes on pensioners and the disabled.

    On top of that, if you're going to preserve your headroom for future increases in defence spending to at least keep pace with inflation, then you're presumably going to want to prevent runaway increases in future social security from swallowing up your revenues. In that instance, the big ticket item is elderly benefits, which already account for 55% of all social security expenditure, primarily on our old friend the triple locked state pension. If you're serious about this then the triple lock is going to have to go, and go immediately. Can you imagine the screaming?

    Restoring the increasingly dire public finances through the convenient medium of slashing benefits is an old favourite of political rhetoric, but once you spend five minutes thinking about the options you quickly realise why it is that politicians struggle to do it. Any serious effort would produce millions of victims, risk causing significant social problems, and probably get the administration responsible the order of the boot at the next election.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,557

    Problem with that simple logic is there is a large disparity between some courses, how crucial they are to UK economy and resultant pay. Medicine being the obvious one. But things like Chemistry has been less offered because it is very expensive to run, so quite a few universities have just closed them. However, it is really important to many aspects of a knowledge based economy.

    I have said this for years, one of the biggest things they missed in 2010, was for certain crucial roles e.g. dentist, higher fees, but the government write off some of it every year you stay in the NHS.
    But... you look up a report card, get a score, then close down the courses/department. That's how it works. That's why the VP's earn the £300k-400k a year.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,082

    But you do have this unbeatable knack for getting it wrong.
    This is coming from the man who's Liz Truss's die-hard sole defender, right?
  • ohnotnow said:

    With apols for the AI news for those who dislike it all :

    https://x.com/sama/status/1889755723078443244

    OPENAI ROADMAP UPDATE FOR GPT-4.5 and GPT-5:

    "Plus subscribers will be able to run GPT-5 at a higher level of intelligence, and Pro subscribers will be able to run GPT-5 at an even higher level of intelligence"
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,310

    Round here we call it freecycling.
    In some places, I gather, items left out as freebies for anyone are not taken away, but when labelled with a price they will be 'stolen'.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,666

    https://x.com/alexwickham/status/1889773926579941790

    New: Nigel Farage has broken from Donald Trump on Ukraine

    “I think Ukraine now joining NATO is almost an essential part of this peace deal,” Farage tells GB News tonight

    Farage needs to take care with these half sensible utterances that he doesn’t alienate his newly Trumpist Putinist membership. Some evidence of that in the comments already.

    As we saw with Corbynites, purity spirals eat their children.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,082

    ...

    That really isn't true. I knew lots of traditional Labour and Liberal voters in 1970 who lent their votes to Ted. Harold was quite a divisive figure and the print media hated him (not least because he had won two elections) It might of course have been Ted's stance on joining the Common Market. For that alone I'd have voted for him if I'd had a vote aged eight. Wasn't so keen on his Education Secretary mind.
    Yeah, that's nonsense though. At the time Ted Heath had a Selsdon Man manifesto, and was quite a bit firmer on immigration.

    Centre-left voters like (some) Conservative leaders in hindsight, never when they're in office.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,948

    https://x.com/alexwickham/status/1889773926579941790

    New: Nigel Farage has broken from Donald Trump on Ukraine

    “I think Ukraine now joining NATO is almost an essential part of this peace deal,” Farage tells GB News tonight

    So is Farage just inventing 'truths' for his admirers or his he going a bit gaga?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,149
    edited February 12
    ohnotnow said:

    I also didn't expect much of Kemi - but she seemed like a blank canvas so I had no particular expectations.

    But having watched/listened to her performances and interviews - there is a sense of arrogance. It reminds me of Masters students who have been told how amazing they are, without realising it was a leading question and not a statement of fact.

    I've also still no idea if she's ventured much outside of the M25 noose. Been to Northern Ireland? Wales? The Western Isles? Northumbria? No idea.
    She's campaigning in areas with hardly any Tory seats :smile: .

    Incidentally, I had not twigged that her majority is just 2600. What are the prospects of her losing her seat next time round, especially if Reform are around?

    Party Candidate Votes % ±%
    Conservative Kemi Badenoch 19,360 35.6 −26.1
    Labour Issy Waite 16,750 30.8 +17.0
    Reform UK Grant StClair-Armstrong[a] 7,668 14.1 N/A
    Liberal Democrats Smita Rajesh 6,055 11.1 −8.6
    Green Edward Gildea 2,846 5.2 +0.4
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,155

    https://x.com/alexwickham/status/1889773926579941790

    New: Nigel Farage has broken from Donald Trump on Ukraine

    “I think Ukraine now joining NATO is almost an essential part of this peace deal,” Farage tells GB News tonight

    Hang on, wasn't Farage telling us just last year that the West goaded Russia into war by not ruling out Ukraine NATO membership?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,480
    MattW said:

    She's campaigning in areas with hardly any Tory seats :smile: .

    Incidentally, I had not twigged that her majority is just 3000. What are the prospects of here losing her seat next time round?

    Party Candidate Votes % ±%
    Conservative Kemi Badenoch 19,360 35.6 −26.1
    Labour Issy Waite 16,750 30.8 +17.0
    Reform UK Grant StClair-Armstrong[a] 7,668 14.1 N/A
    Liberal Democrats Smita Rajesh 6,055 11.1 −8.6
    Green Edward Gildea 2,846 5.2 +0.4
    Next to none, on current polls she would increase her majority over Labour with Reform still well behind
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,811
    edited February 12
    pigeon said:

    The UK defence budget as a percentage of GDP could be brought up to parity with that of the United States with an immediate increase of about £30bn. This is about 10% of the estimated total social security spend for this financial year, so on the face of it that sounds doable.

    Now, you, as a hypothetical new Work and Pensions Secretary, have got to decide who to impoverish. You can't get out of this by making the usual claims about clamping down on fraud, because Government has always been pitiful at dealing with the problem and in any case total losses to benefit fraud are estimated at about £7.5bn. So most of it is going to have to be swiped off genuine claimants, and it's not going to take long before you have to make some very nasty decisions. You could raise the whole sum by abolishing housing benefit, but then everyone who relies on it to afford their exorbitant rents ends up out on the streets (except for families with children, who all end up being housed by councils which promptly become insolvent.)

    Abolishing child benefit would raise about £13bn, but the nation's parents will despise you and the poorer ones will also be turning off the central heating or feeding the kids cheap bread and jam for dinner. You could decide that Universal Credit claimants are all just scroungers really and scrap that, which would earn you over £50bn but cut so many people off at the knees, working poor as well as unemployed, that you'd probably trigger civil unrest. Most of the rest of the benefits bill goes on pensioners and the disabled.

    On top of that, if you're going to preserve your headroom for future increases in defence spending to at least keep pace with inflation, then you're presumably going to want to prevent runaway increases in future social security from swallowing up your revenues. In that instance, the big ticket item is elderly benefits, which already account for 55% of all social security expenditure, primarily on our old friend the triple locked state pension. If you're serious about this then the triple lock is going to have to go, and go immediately. Can you imagine the screaming?

    Restoring the increasingly dire public finances through the convenient medium of slashing benefits is an old favourite of political rhetoric, but once you spend five minutes thinking about the options you quickly realise why it is that politicians struggle to do it. Any serious effort would produce millions of victims, risk causing significant social problems, and probably get the administration responsible the order of the boot at the next election.
    Abolishing the triple lock would save nothing in the immediate term. Tax relief on pension contributions is estimated at between £20 and £40 billion a year. Abolishing higher rate relief would save money immediately and would only impact the higher paid like newspaper columnists and MPs who drone on about the triple lock as a diversionary tactic.

    To save serious money on pensions, tax relief is the place to look, not the triple lock.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,666
    pigeon said:

    The UK defence budget as a percentage of GDP could be brought up to parity with that of the United States with an immediate increase of about £30bn. This is about 10% of the estimated total social security spend for this financial year, so on the face of it that sounds doable.

    Now, you, as a hypothetical new Work and Pensions Secretary, have got to decide who to impoverish. You can't get out of this by making the usual claims about clamping down on fraud, because Government has always been pitiful at dealing with the problem and in any case total losses to benefit fraud are estimated at about £7.5bn. So most of it is going to have to be swiped off genuine claimants, and it's not going to take long before you have to make some very nasty decisions. You could raise the whole sum by abolishing housing benefit, but then everyone who relies on it to afford their exorbitant rents ends up out on the streets (except for families with children, who all end up being housed by councils which promptly become insolvent.)

    Abolishing child benefit would raise about £13bn, but the nation's parents will despise you and the poorer ones will also be turning off the central heating or feeding the kids cheap bread and jam for dinner. You could decide that Universal Credit claimants are all just scroungers really and scrap that, which would earn you over £50bn but cut so many people off at the knees, working poor as well as unemployed, that you'd probably trigger civil unrest. Most of the rest of the benefits bill goes on pensioners and the disabled.

    On top of that, if you're going to preserve your headroom for future increases in defence spending to at least keep pace with inflation, then you're presumably going to want to prevent runaway increases in future social security from swallowing up your revenues. In that instance, the big ticket item is elderly benefits, which already account for 55% of all social security expenditure, primarily on our old friend the triple locked state pension. If you're serious about this then the triple lock is going to have to go, and go immediately. Can you imagine the screaming?

    Restoring the increasingly dire public finances through the convenient medium of slashing benefits is an old favourite of political rhetoric, but once you spend five minutes thinking about the options you quickly realise why it is that politicians struggle to do it. Any serious effort would produce millions of victims, risk causing significant social problems, and probably get the administration responsible the order of the boot at the next election.
    Privatise the motorways. Truss’s favourite IEA say it would raise 150bn overnight.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,011

    Hang on, wasn't Farage telling us just last year that the West goaded Russia into war by not ruling out Ukraine NATO membership?
    Yeh, but now he's seen the focus groups on how his Trump love goes down in UK outside the most hard core Reform/UKIP types.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,557

    Hang on, wasn't Farage telling us just last year that the West goaded Russia into war by not ruling out Ukraine NATO membership?
    Don't worry! The media will forensically take him to bits over this policy inconsistency. They 100% won't just breathlessly report it as being brilliant and outflanking every other politician through the ages. Then report on how the media is reporting on it. Then..... Over to our Senior Politics Editor to report on what Nigel has said about what Nigel has said. Senior sources have told me....

  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,948

    Hang on, wasn't Farage telling us just last year that the West goaded Russia into war by not ruling out Ukraine NATO membership?
    I wonder if the whole Musk thing affected Farage more than anyone realized and it messed with his head in quite a serious way.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,425

    I wonder if the whole Musk thing affected Farage more than anyone realized and it messed with his head in quite a serious way.
    You think it could be the making of him?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,992
    edited February 12
    DavidL said:

    The language is somewhat less diplomatic but the message is the same as it has been since Obama. The US is much more interested in the Pacific than they are in Europe. China, their only real rival, is in the Pacific as are most of the world's most dynamic economies. That is where history is happening.

    Europe is a (fairly wealthy) backwater. The main strategic threat is Russia which has been destroyed as a conventional threat thanks to the blithering incompetence of Putin. I really wouldn't fancy Russia's chances against Poland in a conventional war at this point, let alone western Europe. Within 10 years it won't even be close.

    The great game has moved on. To be honest, that is not necessarily a bad thing for a continent that has seen far more than its fair share of wars.

    Correct David, we should tell Trump and the USA to F**k right off , chuck them out of NATO and build a proper NATO ready to give Putin the doing he deserves. Get rid of the surrender monkeys.
    PS: Stop buying their crap weapons and build our own across Europe. Poke the feckers right in the eye.
  • Nigelb said:

    That seems to be a lot of people's line on imminent genocide.

    Collective punishment is not justified.
    But if it happens it has been wrought by Hamas, Fatah and the PLO and their actions over decades.

    Pre-1967 the Palestinians lived in Egypt and Jordan, their returning to Egypt and Jordan albeit in their current borders might be a solution to end eternal conflict.

    And for all the talk about how collective punishment is not justified, its happened many times before, including for example Germans being kicked out of areas they were no longer welcome in post-WWII.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,756

    I wonder if the whole Musk thing affected Farage more than anyone realized and it messed with his head in quite a serious way.
    That, and Boris getting a seat in at the inauguration while Nigel was left in the cold.

    He surely understands now that Donald was playing him all along?
  • Salah assist and now a goal!

    Everton 1 - 2 Liverpool

    Get in!
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,992
    Leon said:

    If we accept America is Rome moving from Republic to Empire than Greenland and Canada etc make total sense

    if the USA can somehow seize Greenland and persuade Canada into the fold then it has a totally impregnable position, it is North America, and ownership of the mineral wealth of Canada and Greenland means it cannot be menaced by China in any form

    We should probably join. It is time for an Anglosphere. The Five Eyes as a nation would boss the world, which would be fun, especially after I’ve done 39 minutes on the elliptical

    Utter bollox, there speaks a quisling shit scared cowardly arse.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,820
    edited February 12
    Sean_F said:

    If the USA has conceded that Ukraine and the Baktics and Moldova belong to Russia then that transforms European politics.

    But, not in a good way.
    William is trying the reason backwards from his conclusion that Trump is a great man.
    You're wasting your time.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,794
    pigeon said:

    The UK defence budget as a percentage of GDP could be brought up to parity with that of the United States with an immediate increase of about £30bn. This is about 10% of the estimated total social security spend for this financial year, so on the face of it that sounds doable.

    Now, you, as a hypothetical new Work and Pensions Secretary, have got to decide who to impoverish. You can't get out of this by making the usual claims about clamping down on fraud, because Government has always been pitiful at dealing with the problem and in any case total losses to benefit fraud are estimated at about £7.5bn. So most of it is going to have to be swiped off genuine claimants, and it's not going to take long before you have to make some very nasty decisions. You could raise the whole sum by abolishing housing benefit, but then everyone who relies on it to afford their exorbitant rents ends up out on the streets (except for families with children, who all end up being housed by councils which promptly become insolvent.)

    Abolishing child benefit would raise about £13bn, but the nation's parents will despise you and the poorer ones will also be turning off the central heating or feeding the kids cheap bread and jam for dinner. You could decide that Universal Credit claimants are all just scroungers really and scrap that, which would earn you over £50bn but cut so many people off at the knees, working poor as well as unemployed, that you'd probably trigger civil unrest. Most of the rest of the benefits bill goes on pensioners and the disabled.

    On top of that, if you're going to preserve your headroom for future increases in defence spending to at least keep pace with inflation, then you're presumably going to want to prevent runaway increases in future social security from swallowing up your revenues. In that instance, the big ticket item is elderly benefits, which already account for 55% of all social security expenditure, primarily on our old friend the triple locked state pension. If you're serious about this then the triple lock is going to have to go, and go immediately. Can you imagine the screaming?

    Restoring the increasingly dire public finances through the convenient medium of slashing benefits is an old favourite of political rhetoric, but once you spend five minutes thinking about the options you quickly realise why it is that politicians struggle to do it. Any serious effort would produce millions of victims, risk causing significant social problems, and probably get the administration responsible the order of the boot at the next election.
    Cancel the PIP, reign in "disability" benefit for minor mental health issues like anxiety and non-clinical depression, cut the triple lock, and taper the state pension for higher rate tax payers at a rate of 20% starting at £50k, so £1 of state pension withdrawal for every £5 in income over £50k. I think that will raise £30bn and more.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,557

    "Plus subscribers will be able to run GPT-5 at a higher level of intelligence, and Pro subscribers will be able to run GPT-5 at an even higher level of intelligence"
    I was asking 'o3-mini' tonight to find an optimal plan for my annual leave. Gave it lots of details, public holidays, the likely maximum time I could take in one break, that I liked to have a few breaks through the year, the current date. etc.

    After three minutes of 'reasoning' it told me to take all my holidays in one block from mid-November until Christmas.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,992
    Omnium said:

    Scotland has never been neglected by governments. It has been deserted by its own. My family included.
    I agree Westminster has shafted us for many years, ever since we found oil in fact.
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,557
    ohnotnow said:

    I was asking 'o3-mini' tonight to find an optimal plan for my annual leave. Gave it lots of details, public holidays, the likely maximum time I could take in one break, that I liked to have a few breaks through the year, the current date. etc.

    After three minutes of 'reasoning' it told me to take all my holidays in one block from mid-November until Christmas.
    In Wick?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,989

    Hang on, wasn't Farage telling us just last year that the West goaded Russia into war by not ruling out Ukraine NATO membership?
    Yes.

    Still, a sinner repented, and all that.
  • Salah assist and now a goal!

    Everton 1 - 2 Liverpool

    Get in!

    On an unrelated matter, which Liverpool forward and Egyptian king is in your fantasy football team?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,992
    MJW said:


    Why is it nonsense? You are proposing realpolitik and making the decisions that look best for ourselves with no American underpinnings of our security - so why wouldn't we be better off, longer term, in increasing ties to China and letting transatlantic ones expire?

    With those assumptions about American trustworthiness and help to protect and co-operate with Europe gone. You have two superpowers as potential primary security and trade partners and have to choose as they are at odds. Both of which are really not ideal and easy bedfellows.

    Do you go with the one that's erratic, threatening to invade your territory, imposes tariffs on a whim, looks increasingly out of control and corrupt, and which is quite open in regarding bullying as its primary approach to foreign policy. Or do you go with the one that is still a nasty corrupt dictatorship but is more predictable, less noisy and is the up-and-comer.

    Not saying we have a flounce and sign up to doing Beijing's bidding - quite obviously we are quite tied to the US for now. But where's the incentive to not say, increase trade cooperation with China or go with Chinese tech when it's more efficient or advanced?

    Previously America could make the demands of a helpful friend to side with it. But if that's gone and it's everyone for themselves as you say, why shouldn't we want cheaper Chinese goods or infrastructure over an overpriced American version? Moreover, if they want some military or tech kit we have that we can sell them, why should we not take their money and create or protect jobs? Previously the answer was due to our strategic ties to the US, but if they're not worth a damn, as you say, then well.

    We should chuck the f**kers out of chagos base and rent it to China
This discussion has been closed.