politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The PB December Polling average: the Left rampant
Options
Comments
-
"In a separate development, French media reports say police have now identified the suspected killer of a policewoman in the Paris suburb of Montrouge on Thursday. The shooting is said to be unrelated to the Charlie Hebdo attack."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-30722098
0 -
McTernan, McDougall and Murphy in Holy Trinity; I think I just brought up a bit of my breakfast.Alistair said:In the least surprising news ever #McTernanPredicts has been announced as Jim Murphy's chief of staff.
0 -
The events in France may have pushed UKIP's support up again, in which case you might expect to see that reflected in Yougov's polls.TheScreamingEagles said:
Populus' party ID weighting is harsh on UKIP.Pulpstar said:
Yougov doesn't have to do nearly as much weighting on the UKIP figure that Populus does. Any idea why - they are both internet polling Cos...TheScreamingEagles said:
UKIP higher with Populus than YouGov.Pulpstar said:
UKIP back over the 300 mark - perhaps their demise was forecast too soon.TheScreamingEagles said:@PopulusPolls: Latest Populus VI: Lab 34 (-2), Con 33 (-1), LD 8 (-1), UKIP 14 (+2), Oth 11 (+1). Tables here: http://t.co/R0TX0BX9Ir
Is interesting.
As all the pollsters say there's far too much past recall errors with UKIP voters.
But YouGov now prompt for UKIP and less severe but still have UKIP lower than Populus.
Is a mystery.0 -
Doesn't the Fifth Column derive from Francoist Facist sympathisers in Madrid supporting the four Francoist columns marching on Madrid at the opening of the Spanish Civil War?Socrates said:
We do have a fifth column in our ranks. How else would you describe the thousands of fundamentalist Muslims that support Al Qaeda? In what way are they not a fifth column?antifrank said:
While we have the likes of the English Defence League and Pegida, and political leaders telling us that we have a fifth column within our ranks, it isn't so obvious as to be barely worth saying.isam said:
And you are missing the point... the fact is that of course most muslims are ""hardworking Brits who share many of the values that we value, and who we should be welcoming, not stigmatising".. it is so obvious as to be barely worth saying, and is at best a distractionantifrank said:
Neither of you understand the words "mostly" or "many".Socrates said:
In another survey, 78% thought the Jyllands-Posten cartoonists should be prosecuted.Indigo said:
Some are, some aren't. 16% of British Muslims believe suicide bombing could be justified against British military targets in the UK. 36% believe that modern British Values are a threat to the Muslim way of life.antifrank said:
If you read the article, the thrust of it is: "these are mostly hardworking Brits who share many of the values that we value, and who we should be welcoming, not stigmatising". And he's right.Indigo said:
Anyone considering posting about British expats in Spain, please dont bother, we have heard it all before, if the Spanish chose to tolerate people behaving like yobs because they want the money, that's entirely their business.antifrank said:
It's a very good article. Rather more socially conservative than my tastes, but thoughtful and reflecting very well on Mr Cameron.Indigo said:
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2007/may/13/comment.communitiesMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Indigo, ......
What an arse.
It seems to be around the same time he was hugging hoodies and huskies.
http://www.populuslimited.com/Poll/Muslim-77-Poll-/
It boggles my mind how some people get more upset by a politician using a description that is entirely accurate, yet hand-wave away the fact the huge numbers of actual extremists we have here.
While perhaps a rather inflammatory phrase, It is a fairly accurate description of Islamist activity in this country.0 -
More like Altamont than Woodstock?Theuniondivvie said:
McTernan, McDougall and Murphy in Holy Trinity; I think I just brought up a bit of my breakfast.Alistair said:In the least surprising news ever #McTernanPredicts has been announced as Jim Murphy's chief of staff.
0 -
That's fabulous - might give a real prospect of de-escalation of ethnic tension there. Credit to the loser for not quibbling, too.murali_s said:O/T
Wonderful news from Sri Lanka - shows the power of democracy.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-30738671
It'd be helpful for this sort of poll to have a control sample of other population groups. For example, I know many Christians who would agree that "Modern British values are a threat to the Christian way of life." For that matter, perhaps a majority of elderly people would agree with "Modern British values do not fully reflect my own". There are a lot of alienated people out there, but so long as they don't do anything illegal to push their views, they're entitled to hold them.Indigo said:36% believe that modern British Values are a threat to the Muslim way of life.
http://www.populuslimited.com/Poll/Muslim-77-Poll-/
0 -
That's one view - Farage's nasty response will have turned a few stomachs.Sean_F said:
The events in France may have pushed UKIP's support up again, in which case you might expect to see that reflected in Yougov's polls.TheScreamingEagles said:
Populus' party ID weighting is harsh on UKIP.Pulpstar said:
Yougov doesn't have to do nearly as much weighting on the UKIP figure that Populus does. Any idea why - they are both internet polling Cos...TheScreamingEagles said:
UKIP higher with Populus than YouGov.Pulpstar said:
UKIP back over the 300 mark - perhaps their demise was forecast too soon.TheScreamingEagles said:@PopulusPolls: Latest Populus VI: Lab 34 (-2), Con 33 (-1), LD 8 (-1), UKIP 14 (+2), Oth 11 (+1). Tables here: http://t.co/R0TX0BX9Ir
Is interesting.
As all the pollsters say there's far too much past recall errors with UKIP voters.
But YouGov now prompt for UKIP and less severe but still have UKIP lower than Populus.
Is a mystery.
0 -
They've seen what happens in other places and don't want to live there?antifrank said:
Fewer than 1% of the population of Dresden is Muslim. Why do tens of thousands there feel the need to go on the march as "Patriotic Europeans Against the Islamization of the West"? X for xenophobia marks the spot.Socrates said:Incidentally, how come people like antifrank go to lengths to say Muslims on the whole should not be tarred by the subset that have extremist views, yet is happy to slam PEGIDA on the whole due to the subset that have extremist views?
0 -
The ISPs probably aren't in the UK, and its trivially easy to route around any attempts to block a site outside the country, even totalitarian regime like China can't manage it.surbiton said:
Presumably MI5 / MI6 or whatever knows each and every IP address. Why are the ISP's carrying this website ?Indigo said:
Apparently people 125,000 in the UK regularly download the ISIS propaganda magazine...Pulpstar said:According to that poll it seems around ~ 10% of British muslims hold abhorrent views.
So it is at least 200,000.
0 -
Mr. Palmer, that's a flawed comparison.
Have angry Christians been blowing people up lately? There was the Breivik incident, which was terrible but also isolated. Against it there's 9/11, 7/7, the Madrid bombings, the Charlie Hebdo massacre, Boko Haram in Nigeria, Taliban in Afghanistan and Pakistan, Al-Qaeda and ISIS.
When was the last time a cartoon lampooning Jesus led to bloodshed in France or the UK?0 -
It is not possible to do that when we are supposed to be the "UK". It is either everybody included to ensure everybody is represented or it should be England, NI, Wales, Scotland debates.HYUFD said:MalcolmG Just have UK debates with the Greens and UKIP, and a Scottish debate with Sturgeon or Salmond, Davidson, Murphy and Rennie and do the same in Wales and NI, simples!
0 -
I'm beginning to feel sorry for Richard Tyndall.TGOHF said:
That's one view - Farage's nasty response will have turned a few stomachs.Sean_F said:
The events in France may have pushed UKIP's support up again, in which case you might expect to see that reflected in Yougov's polls.TheScreamingEagles said:
Populus' party ID weighting is harsh on UKIP.Pulpstar said:
Yougov doesn't have to do nearly as much weighting on the UKIP figure that Populus does. Any idea why - they are both internet polling Cos...TheScreamingEagles said:
UKIP higher with Populus than YouGov.Pulpstar said:
UKIP back over the 300 mark - perhaps their demise was forecast too soon.TheScreamingEagles said:@PopulusPolls: Latest Populus VI: Lab 34 (-2), Con 33 (-1), LD 8 (-1), UKIP 14 (+2), Oth 11 (+1). Tables here: http://t.co/R0TX0BX9Ir
Is interesting.
As all the pollsters say there's far too much past recall errors with UKIP voters.
But YouGov now prompt for UKIP and less severe but still have UKIP lower than Populus.
Is a mystery.0 -
"We've seen off peak Kipper."Pulpstar said:
UKIP back over the 300 mark - perhaps their demise was forecast too soon.TheScreamingEagles said:@PopulusPolls: Latest Populus VI: Lab 34 (-2), Con 33 (-1), LD 8 (-1), UKIP 14 (+2), Oth 11 (+1). Tables here: http://t.co/R0TX0BX9Ir
0 -
I haven't seen Douglas Carswell jump on the hate bandwagon post Paris - and Reckless is AWOL - are they split into two factions or three ?TheWatcher said:
I'm beginning to feel sorry for Richard Tyndall.TGOHF said:
That's one view - Farage's nasty response will have turned a few stomachs.Sean_F said:
The events in France may have pushed UKIP's support up again, in which case you might expect to see that reflected in Yougov's polls.TheScreamingEagles said:
Populus' party ID weighting is harsh on UKIP.Pulpstar said:
Yougov doesn't have to do nearly as much weighting on the UKIP figure that Populus does. Any idea why - they are both internet polling Cos...TheScreamingEagles said:
UKIP higher with Populus than YouGov.Pulpstar said:
UKIP back over the 300 mark - perhaps their demise was forecast too soon.TheScreamingEagles said:@PopulusPolls: Latest Populus VI: Lab 34 (-2), Con 33 (-1), LD 8 (-1), UKIP 14 (+2), Oth 11 (+1). Tables here: http://t.co/R0TX0BX9Ir
Is interesting.
As all the pollsters say there's far too much past recall errors with UKIP voters.
But YouGov now prompt for UKIP and less severe but still have UKIP lower than Populus.
Is a mystery.0 -
Why do you just see it as NOTA?Pulpstar said:
Voting for the SNP would be a fantastic NOTA option in England though :PPong said:
So the SNP can buy their way into the debates just by coughing up 600 odd deposits?Indigo said:
I believe UKIP stand in all constituencies in Scotland, if the SNP stood in all constituencies in the UK I would imagine there would be support them appearing in the UK debates.Theuniondivvie said:
Since the E&W Greens have no electoral presence in Scotland and UKIP's is negligible, presumably those debates including them shouldn't be screened in Scotland.HYUFD said:MalcolmG Just have UK debates with the Greens and UKIP, and a Scottish debate with Sturgeon or Salmond, Davidson, Murphy and Rennie and do the same in Wales and NI, simples!
It's all a bit absurd, no?
A vote for the SNP in Hampshire could actually be a very positive vote in favour of geting rid of Scotland from the Union.0 -
@bondegezou
I hardly think 10-15% of Brits believing in conspiracy theories is anywhere near equivalent to a third of Muslims believing apostates should be executed. One is being mistaken on a matter of fact, while the other is directly supporting savage violence for entirely legitimate behaviour. It gets especially ridiculously when you talk about Catholics being homophobic - have you seen the scale of British Muslim views on this issue?
http://www.theguardian.com/uk/2009/may/07/muslims-britain-france-germany-homosexuality
Again and again we see people on the left just hand-waving away clear evidence of intolerance from Muslims. Had I posted a poll that showed a third of men in this country felt that rape was ok, you would never have responded by saying "oh, polls show all sorts of silly things - nothing to worry about". It's this double standard when it comes to Muslims that needs to end.
0 -
A friend of mine is in a meeting at 10:00 am regarding redundancy.
He was given the notice (Of the meeting) at 9:15 am.
Sounds a bit too short notice to m - any of our legal eagles here have a view ?0 -
Which of my views would he be worried about? And please, don't generalise. Mention a specific position of mine that would be troubling to him.surbiton said:
He would certainly be worried about your views.Socrates said:
Edmund Burke in the 1780s spoke passionately about the worrying drift towards social illiberalism, and I'm sure he would do again if he was alive today and witnessed the views of large numbers of British Muslims.antifrank said:
Perhaps Edmund Burke is too LibLabCon nowadays.
What abuse has been shouted at you by Kippers today? Could you quote some of it?
You might do better in having an amicable discussion if you actually acknowledged the points Kippers were making rather than just ignoring any inconvenient evidence and arguments.
I put the same challenge to you. Which of my views are extremist? And which 'god' do I worship? I was under the impression I'm an agnostic, but if you know better, it would be good to be informed.TheWatcher said:
Anyone reading your posts over the last 24 hours could be forgiven for gaining the impression that you were an extremist, albeit one who holds differing beliefs and worships a different 'god'.0 -
There you are dreaming again. Once more most reasonable people who aren't Cameroons will have looked at the TV and thought it was a reasonable point of view from Farage. Once again the Liberal Elite jump up and down and make a fuss, confirming how remote they are from the ordinary voter.TGOHF said:
That's one view - Farage's nasty response will have turned a few stomachs.Sean_F said:
The events in France may have pushed UKIP's support up again, in which case you might expect to see that reflected in Yougov's polls.TheScreamingEagles said:
Populus' party ID weighting is harsh on UKIP.Pulpstar said:
Yougov doesn't have to do nearly as much weighting on the UKIP figure that Populus does. Any idea why - they are both internet polling Cos...TheScreamingEagles said:
UKIP higher with Populus than YouGov.Pulpstar said:
UKIP back over the 300 mark - perhaps their demise was forecast too soon.TheScreamingEagles said:@PopulusPolls: Latest Populus VI: Lab 34 (-2), Con 33 (-1), LD 8 (-1), UKIP 14 (+2), Oth 11 (+1). Tables here: http://t.co/R0TX0BX9Ir
Is interesting.
As all the pollsters say there's far too much past recall errors with UKIP voters.
But YouGov now prompt for UKIP and less severe but still have UKIP lower than Populus.
Is a mystery.0 -
Keep watching Sean.Sean_F said:
"We've seen off peak Kipper."Pulpstar said:
UKIP back over the 300 mark - perhaps their demise was forecast too soon.TheScreamingEagles said:@PopulusPolls: Latest Populus VI: Lab 34 (-2), Con 33 (-1), LD 8 (-1), UKIP 14 (+2), Oth 11 (+1). Tables here: http://t.co/R0TX0BX9Ir
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/96/UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png/800px-UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png
Average for the last 15 days is 14% - wouldn't be a good time for an update. Sure a 20% Survation will be along shortly..0 -
Labour Majority testing new highs on betfair (7.6 to lay - disclosure: some of that's mine, reducing liabilities). Yet Con Most Seats still trades odds-against.
I suppose the curious divergence of these markets is reconcilable given non-normal distributions of seat outcomes; more likely, there some value about.0 -
IANAL but I believe they can sack him on the spot, but would have to pay him in lieu of notice, which as I understand it has to be the basic pay and benefits he would have earned for the period in question.Pulpstar said:A friend of mine is in a meeting at 10:00 am regarding redundancy.
He was given the notice (Of the meeting) at 9:15 am.
Sounds a bit too short notice to m - any of our legal eagles here have a view ?
EDIT: https://www.gov.uk/redundant-your-rights/notice-periods
0 -
I'm starting to feel sorry for the SLAB MSPs with this lot in charge - I wonder whether any of the constituency MSPs are considering defecting to the SNP?Theuniondivvie said:
McTernan, McDougall and Murphy in Holy Trinity; I think I just brought up a bit of my breakfast.Alistair said:In the least surprising news ever #McTernanPredicts has been announced as Jim Murphy's chief of staff.
0 -
HahahahaTGOHF said:
Keep watching Sean.Sean_F said:
"We've seen off peak Kipper."Pulpstar said:
UKIP back over the 300 mark - perhaps their demise was forecast too soon.TheScreamingEagles said:@PopulusPolls: Latest Populus VI: Lab 34 (-2), Con 33 (-1), LD 8 (-1), UKIP 14 (+2), Oth 11 (+1). Tables here: http://t.co/R0TX0BX9Ir
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/96/UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png/800px-UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png
Average for the last 15 days is 14% - wouldn't be a good time for an update. Sure a 20% Survation will be along shortly..0 -
It's a statement of the obvious to say that we have a 5th column in Luton. Anti-terrorist raids and arrests are frequent.foxinsoxuk said:
Doesn't the Fifth Column derive from Francoist Facist sympathisers in Madrid supporting the four Francoist columns marching on Madrid at the opening of the Spanish Civil War?Socrates said:
We do have a fifth column in our ranks. How else would you describe the thousands of fundamentalist Muslims that support Al Qaeda? In what way are they not a fifth column?antifrank said:
While we have the likes of the English Defence League and Pegida, and political leaders telling us that we have a fifth column within our ranks, it isn't so obvious as to be barely worth saying.isam said:
And you are missing the point... the fact is that of course most muslims are ""hardworking Brits who share many of the values that we value, and who we should be welcoming, not stigmatising".. it is so obvious as to be barely worth saying, and is at best a distractionantifrank said:
Neither of you understand the words "mostly" or "many".Socrates said:
In another survey, 78% thought the Jyllands-Posten cartoonists should be prosecuted.Indigo said:
http://www.populuslimited.com/Poll/Muslim-77-Poll-/antifrank said:
If you read the article, the thrust of it is: "these are mostly hardworking Brits who share many of the values that we value, and who we should be welcoming, not stigmatising". And he's right.Indigo said:
Anyone considering posting about British expats in Spain, please dont bother, we have heard it all before, if the Spanish chose to tolerate people behaving like yobs because they want the money, that's entirely their business.antifrank said:
It's a very good article. Rather more socially conservative than my tastes, but thoughtful and reflecting very well on Mr Cameron.Indigo said:
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2007/may/13/comment.communitiesMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Indigo, ......
What an arse.
It seems to be around the same time he was hugging hoodies and huskies.
It boggles my mind how some people get more upset by a politician using a description that is entirely accurate, yet hand-wave away the fact the huge numbers of actual extremists we have here.
While perhaps a rather inflammatory phrase, It is a fairly accurate description of Islamist activity in this country.0 -
Might be related to thisTissue_Price said:Labour Majority testing new highs on betfair (7.6 to lay - disclosure: some of that's mine, reducing liabilities). Yet Con Most Seats still trades odds-against.
I suppose the curious divergence of these markets is reconcilable given non-normal distributions of seat outcomes; more likely, there some value about.
New #GE2015 forecast method coming soon. Until then, our forecasts come with a health warning: http://wp.me/p4Be9H-c9
"However, we have yet to finalise a new method that properly takes into account the SNP’s rise and Labour’s fall in Scotland – we’ll be introducing it in the next week or two. That means that, for the moment, our forecasts come with a big health warning: they are likely to overestimate Labour.
If you want to do a rough-and-ready adjustment, the Labour-to-SNP swing in Scotland probably means around 35 seats off Labour’s total and 5 off the Lib Dems’. Clearly, therefore, the chances of Labour being the largest party are lower than the 52% our current model suggests – in reality, the Scottish situation means the Conservatives are clearly the favourites. Similarly, the likelihood of a Labour majority if probably somewhat lower than the 21% in this week’s forecast, and that of a Hung Parliament is probably higher than 60%."0 -
Beginning to look like it will mirror Rangers saga, vultures all getting into place.calum said:
I'm starting to feel sorry for the SLAB MSPs with this lot in charge - I wonder whether any of the constituency MSPs are considering defecting to the SNP?Theuniondivvie said:
McTernan, McDougall and Murphy in Holy Trinity; I think I just brought up a bit of my breakfast.Alistair said:In the least surprising news ever #McTernanPredicts has been announced as Jim Murphy's chief of staff.
0 -
You seem to be in a touchy mood today.antifrank said:
If you're not going to bother to try to read what I write, I'm not going to bother replying to your points. I've not suggested at any point that kippers have shouted abuse at me today.Socrates said:
Edmund Burke in the 1780s spoke passionately about the worrying drift towards social illiberalism, and I'm sure he would do again if he was alive today and witnessed the views of large numbers of British Muslims.antifrank said:
Perhaps Edmund Burke is too LibLabCon nowadays.
What abuse has been shouted at you by Kippers today? Could you quote some of it?
You might do better in having an amicable discussion if you actually acknowledged the points Kippers were making rather than just ignoring any inconvenient evidence and arguments.
But carry on labelling Muslims as fifth columnists and marching against Islamization. I'm sure that will improve the chances of bringing society together peacefully and harmoniously.
"I can see that the kippers and the kipper fellow travellers are forgetting today about their usual argument that to persuade people who you want to bring in from the dark side you have to do more than shout abuse at them."
That implies they've been shouting abuse at those they want to bring in from the dark side. Given that Kippers were mainly arguing with you in this thread, I did make the assumption you were referring to yourself. What abuse are you suggesting Kippers have thrown today and who have they thrown it at?
Oh, and the only people I've labelled as "fifth columnists" are jihadist supporters. You trying to change that and imply I'm applying it to Muslims in general is a nasty smear that's beneath you. I've said again and again on this board that Muslims who are integrated and genuinely moderate - of which we have at least one fine example on this site - I have no issue with. I have noted that those who are losing arguments on this matter resort to throwing the bigot card.0 -
Hollande's press conference is very odd
@afneil
This is quite bizarre: Hollande is giving press conference, talking banalities, while siege of killers and hostage situation continues.
@afneil
Hollande seems to have nothing concrete to say. Speaking in generalities and banalities. Why is he doing this?0 -
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/St._Bartholomew's_Day_massacreMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Palmer, that's a flawed comparison. Have angry Christians been blowing people up lately? There was the Breivik incident, which was terrible but also isolated. Against it there's 9/11, 7/7, the Madrid bombings, the Charlie Hebdo massacre, Boko Haram in Nigeria, Taliban in Afghanistan and Pakistan, Al-Qaeda and ISIS.
When was the last time a cartoon lampooning Jesus led to bloodshed in France or the UK?
Maybe?
0 -
The people pretending there isn't a problem cause the problem to growSean_F said:
It's a statement of the obvious to say that we have a 5th column in Luton. Anti-terrorist raids and arrests are frequent.foxinsoxuk said:
Doesn't the Fifth Column derive from Francoist Facist sympathisers in Madrid supporting the four Francoist columns marching on Madrid at the opening of the Spanish Civil War?Socrates said:
We do have a fifth column in our ranks. How else would you describe the thousands of fundamentalist Muslims that support Al Qaeda? In what way are they not a fifth column?antifrank said:
While we have the likes of the English Defence League and Pegida, and political leaders telling us that we have a fifth column within our ranks, it isn't so obvious as to be barely worth saying.isam said:antifrank said:
Neither of you understand the words "mostly" or "many".Socrates said:
In another survey, 78% thought the Jyllands-Posten cartoonists should be prosecuted.Indigo said:
http://www.populuslimited.com/Poll/Muslim-77-Poll-/antifrank said:
If you read the article, the thrust of it is: "these are mostly hardworking Brits who share many of the values that we value, and who we should be welcoming, not stigmatising". And he's right.Indigo said:
Anyone considering posting about British expats in Spain, please dont bother, we have heard it all before, if the Spanish chose to tolerate people behaving like yobs because they want the money, that's entirely their business.antifrank said:
It's a very good article. Rather more socially conservative than my tastes, but thoughtful and reflecting very well on Mr Cameron.Indigo said:
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2007/may/13/comment.communitiesMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Indigo, ......
What an arse.
It seems to be around the same time he was hugging hoodies and huskies.
It boggles my mind how some people get more upset by a politician using a description that is entirely accurate, yet hand-wave away the fact the huge numbers of actual extremists we have here.
While perhaps a rather inflammatory phrase, It is a fairly accurate description of Islamist activity in this country.
Probably too addicted to Kipper baiting to switch mode0 -
UKIP support apparently peaks once a fortnight.isam said:
HahahahaTGOHF said:
Keep watching Sean.Sean_F said:
"We've seen off peak Kipper."Pulpstar said:
UKIP back over the 300 mark - perhaps their demise was forecast too soon.TheScreamingEagles said:@PopulusPolls: Latest Populus VI: Lab 34 (-2), Con 33 (-1), LD 8 (-1), UKIP 14 (+2), Oth 11 (+1). Tables here: http://t.co/R0TX0BX9Ir
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/96/UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png/800px-UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png
Average for the last 15 days is 14% - wouldn't be a good time for an update. Sure a 20% Survation will be along shortly..0 -
Mr. Betting, that seems fair. Also the Cathar persecution. And the Fourth Crusade.
Mr. F, probably those pesky Methodists, no?0 -
EGM will be before the GE malc - unlike Scotland there is a chance the good guys will win..malcolmg said:
Beginning to look like it will mirror Rangers saga, vultures all getting into place.calum said:
I'm starting to feel sorry for the SLAB MSPs with this lot in charge - I wonder whether any of the constituency MSPs are considering defecting to the SNP?Theuniondivvie said:
McTernan, McDougall and Murphy in Holy Trinity; I think I just brought up a bit of my breakfast.Alistair said:In the least surprising news ever #McTernanPredicts has been announced as Jim Murphy's chief of staff.
0 -
Are Ukip really that strong in Luton ?Sean_F said:
It's a statement of the obvious to say that we have a 5th column in Luton. Anti-terrorist raids and arrests are frequent.foxinsoxuk said:
Doesn't the Fifth Column derive from Francoist Facist sympathisers in Madrid supporting the four Francoist columns marching on Madrid at the opening of the Spanish Civil War?Socrates said:
We do have a fifth column in our ranks. How else would you describe the thousands of fundamentalist Muslims that support Al Qaeda? In what way are they not a fifth column?antifrank said:
While we have the likes of the English Defence League and Pegida, and political leaders telling us that we have a fifth column within our ranks, it isn't so obvious as to be barely worth saying.isam said:
And you are missing the point... the fact is that of course most muslims are ""hardworking Brits who share many of the values that we value, and who we should be welcoming, not stigmatising".. it is so obvious as to be barely worth saying, and is at best a distractionantifrank said:
Neither of you understand the words "mostly" or "many".Socrates said:
In another survey, 78% thought the Jyllands-Posten cartoonists should be prosecuted.Indigo said:
http://www.populuslimited.com/Poll/Muslim-77-Poll-/antifrank said:
If you read the article, the thrust of it is: "these are mostly hardworking Brits who share many of the values that we value, and who we should be welcoming, not stigmatising". And he's right.Indigo said:
Anyone considering posting about British expats in Spain, please dont bother, we have heard it all before, if the Spanish chose to tolerate people behaving like yobs because they want the money, that's entirely their business.antifrank said:
It's a very good article. Rather more socially conservative than my tastes, but thoughtful and reflecting very well on Mr Cameron.Indigo said:
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2007/may/13/comment.communitiesMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Indigo, ......
What an arse.
It seems to be around the same time he was hugging hoodies and huskies.
It boggles my mind how some people get more upset by a politician using a description that is entirely accurate, yet hand-wave away the fact the huge numbers of actual extremists we have here.
While perhaps a rather inflammatory phrase, It is a fairly accurate description of Islamist activity in this country.
0 -
That well known right-winger Sir Salman Rushdie on the events yesterday:
"Religion, a medieval form of unreason, when combined with modern weaponry becomes a real threat to our freedoms. This religious totalitarianism has caused a deadly mutation in the heart of Islam and we see the tragic consequences in Paris today...'Respect for religion' has become a code phrase meaning 'fear of religion.' Religions, like all other ideas, deserve criticism, satire, and, yes, our fearless disrespect."0 -
"That's one view - Farage's nasty response will have turned a few stomachs."
The level of debate in France following Wednesday's outrage is in marked contrast to that which takes place here. Farage's doesn't seem untypical.
I wonder how much it is due to the cheer leaders in our popular press. The proliferation of 'Littlejohns' and how much is down to the way philosophers are revered in France producing a culture which is deeper and more profound.0 -
Graph shows a drift down since late September - so nearly 4 months. Not my opinion - just the data.Sean_F said:
UKIP support apparently peaks once a fortnight.isam said:
HahahahaTGOHF said:
Keep watching Sean.Sean_F said:
"We've seen off peak Kipper."Pulpstar said:
UKIP back over the 300 mark - perhaps their demise was forecast too soon.TheScreamingEagles said:@PopulusPolls: Latest Populus VI: Lab 34 (-2), Con 33 (-1), LD 8 (-1), UKIP 14 (+2), Oth 11 (+1). Tables here: http://t.co/R0TX0BX9Ir
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/96/UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png/800px-UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png
Average for the last 15 days is 14% - wouldn't be a good time for an update. Sure a 20% Survation will be along shortly..
0 -
I'm not expecting any polls this weekend bar the YouGov for the Sunday Times, but I did partake in a YouGov poll this morning, which I think is part of the Sunday Times YouGov poll which asked a lot about the events in Paris and what it means for the UK.Sean_F said:
The events in France may have pushed UKIP's support up again, in which case you might expect to see that reflected in Yougov's polls.TheScreamingEagles said:
Populus' party ID weighting is harsh on UKIP.Pulpstar said:
Yougov doesn't have to do nearly as much weighting on the UKIP figure that Populus does. Any idea why - they are both internet polling Cos...TheScreamingEagles said:
UKIP higher with Populus than YouGov.Pulpstar said:
UKIP back over the 300 mark - perhaps their demise was forecast too soon.TheScreamingEagles said:@PopulusPolls: Latest Populus VI: Lab 34 (-2), Con 33 (-1), LD 8 (-1), UKIP 14 (+2), Oth 11 (+1). Tables here: http://t.co/R0TX0BX9Ir
Is interesting.
As all the pollsters say there's far too much past recall errors with UKIP voters.
But YouGov now prompt for UKIP and less severe but still have UKIP lower than Populus.
Is a mystery.0 -
1572 ? Seems a trifle passeTCPoliticalBetting said:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/St._Bartholomew's_Day_massacreMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Palmer, that's a flawed comparison. Have angry Christians been blowing people up lately? There was the Breivik incident, which was terrible but also isolated. Against it there's 9/11, 7/7, the Madrid bombings, the Charlie Hebdo massacre, Boko Haram in Nigeria, Taliban in Afghanistan and Pakistan, Al-Qaeda and ISIS.
When was the last time a cartoon lampooning Jesus led to bloodshed in France or the UK?
Maybe?
0 -
Honestly, the fact that you try and use that as proof of UKIP doing badly makes you look a complete idiotTGOHF said:
Graph shows a drift down since late September - so nearly 4 months. Not my opinion - just the data.Sean_F said:
UKIP support apparently peaks once a fortnight.isam said:
HahahahaTGOHF said:
Keep watching Sean.Sean_F said:
"We've seen off peak Kipper."Pulpstar said:
UKIP back over the 300 mark - perhaps their demise was forecast too soon.TheScreamingEagles said:@PopulusPolls: Latest Populus VI: Lab 34 (-2), Con 33 (-1), LD 8 (-1), UKIP 14 (+2), Oth 11 (+1). Tables here: http://t.co/R0TX0BX9Ir
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/96/UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png/800px-UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png
Average for the last 15 days is 14% - wouldn't be a good time for an update. Sure a 20% Survation will be along shortly..0 -
Reports that Fidel Castro has smoked his last cigar.0
-
@alastairjam: Italy's Corriere della Sera has announced - and then un-announced - the death of Fidel Castro. Has he been Twitter murdered again? #CubaTGOHF said:Reports that Fidel Castro has smoked his last cigar.
0 -
You're being pessimistic Roger.Roger said:"That's one view - Farage's nasty response will have turned a few stomachs."
The level of debate in France following Wednesday's outrage is in marked contrast to that which takes place here under similar circumstances. Farage's doesn't seem untypical.
I wonder how much it is due to the cheer leaders in our popular press. The proliferation of 'Littlejohns' and how much is down to the way philosophers are revered in France producing a culture which is deeper and more profound.
Look how calmly the country reacted after 7/7.
The BNP tried to stoke up tensions, but nothing really happened.
Is one of the things I like about this country, it is the Keep Calm, and Carry on Mentality.0 -
How will this nation of shopkeepers ever surpass France, eh?Roger said:"That's one view - Farage's nasty response will have turned a few stomachs."
The level of debate in France following Wednesday's outrage is in marked contrast to that which takes place here. Farage's doesn't seem untypical.
I wonder how much it is due to the cheer leaders in our popular press. The proliferation of 'Littlejohns' and how much is down to the way philosophers are revered in France producing a culture which is deeper and more profound.0 -
Labour can’t afford any situation in which English voters are clearer about Labour’s offer to Wales and Scotland than about Labour’s offer to England.
http://labourlist.org/2015/01/jim-murphy-and-the-need-for-an-english-labour-manifesto/0 -
EICIPM nailed on - oh what happy thoughts....
Paul Waugh@paulwaugh·9 mins9 minutes ago
Senior lobbyists expecting Ed Miliband to be PM in May, Public Affairs News reports https://www.publicaffairsnews.com/articles/analysis/who-will-triumph-general-election-expert-predictions-public-affairs-world …
David Singleton@singersz·12 mins12 minutes ago
Excl: Cameron’s former chief of staff predicts Tories will lose election due to "collapse" in grassroots support http://polho.me/1BTzyJL0 -
http://labourlist.org/2015/01/jim-murphy-and-the-need-for-an-english-labour-manifesto/I don't think Mr Miliband and Mr Murphy are BFFs any more. Mr Cameron and Mr Murphy, maybe...Scott_P said:Labour can’t afford any situation in which English voters are clearer about Labour’s offer to Wales and Scotland than about Labour’s offer to England.
0 -
@LabourList: Most LabourList readers expect Labour to fall short of a majority http://labli.st/1BTnZlXScrapheap_as_was said:EICIPM nailed on - oh what happy thoughts....
0 -
And the very same people get shirty and throw abuse at those pointing out there is a problem using evidence and logic. I see both surbiton and TheWatcher, after saying my views were worrying and I could be seen as an extremist respectively, have now run away with their tails between their legs when asked to justify it. I guess they're just demonstrating the same lack of logical rigour that exists at the top of the two parties they support.isam said:
The people pretending there isn't a problem cause the problem to grow
Probably too addicted to Kipper baiting to switch mode
@Morris_Dancer
I repeat the question I asked the other day: what is the country with the largest Muslim population that hasn't suffered from Islamist terrorism?0 -
No referendum then.Scrapheap_as_was said:EICIPM nailed on - oh what happy thoughts....
Paul Waugh@paulwaugh·9 mins9 minutes ago
Senior lobbyists expecting Ed Miliband to be PM in May, Public Affairs News reports https://www.publicaffairsnews.com/articles/analysis/who-will-triumph-general-election-expert-predictions-public-affairs-world …
David Singleton@singersz·12 mins12 minutes ago
Excl: Cameron’s former chief of staff predicts Tories will lose election due to "collapse" in grassroots support http://polho.me/1BTzyJL0 -
@MSmithsonPB :Today's Populus online poll EXCLUDING Scotland (my calculation)
CON 35
LAB 34.5
LD 8.3
UKIP 15
GRN 6.10 -
In the 1990s and 2000s there were frequent arrests of extremist animal rights activists. I don't recall the endless stigmatisation of vegetarians.isam said:The people pretending there isn't a problem cause the problem to grow
Probably too addicted to Kipper baiting to switch mode
Of course there's a problem. But the solution is not to alienate Muslims, but to get them fully involved with solving it.0 -
Have not had time to look at events last few days , hopefully the Yank is not going to win. Needs fixing quick and a big clear out as well. All the old time servers who have been running the team need cleared out as well. Too many old buddies in there also. Needs root and branch clear out, too many jobs for the boys.TGOHF said:
EGM will be before the GE malc - unlike Scotland there is a chance the good guys will win..malcolmg said:
Beginning to look like it will mirror Rangers saga, vultures all getting into place.calum said:
I'm starting to feel sorry for the SLAB MSPs with this lot in charge - I wonder whether any of the constituency MSPs are considering defecting to the SNP?Theuniondivvie said:
McTernan, McDougall and Murphy in Holy Trinity; I think I just brought up a bit of my breakfast.Alistair said:In the least surprising news ever #McTernanPredicts has been announced as Jim Murphy's chief of staff.
0 -
If there is a fifth column in Britain it the white christian British people of many generations standing who have made islam unimpeachable, invoilable and unspoofable in our society.
Those who passed the incitement to religious hatred act. The people who made up the BBC's strictures on the depiction of Mohammed, read out by Dimbleby on QT last amidst quite extraordinary scenes. The people for whom militant islamism is Our Fault.
When we were fighting communism I always felt our greatest enemies weren;t the Russians but those who, born to the fruits of Western Society, sought to sell us out to them. Kim Philby, Anthony Blunt and the Cambridge academics who recruited them. Eric Hobsbawm. Arthur Scargill.
That is the real fifth column, not the British muslim community.
0 -
Sort of.Roger said:"That's one view - Farage's nasty response will have turned a few stomachs."
The level of debate in France following Wednesday's outrage is in marked contrast to that which takes place here. Farage's doesn't seem untypical.
I wonder how much it is due to the cheer leaders in our popular press. The proliferation of 'Littlejohns' and how much is down to the way philosophers are revered in France producing a culture which is deeper and more profound.
The French politicians are currently, as the climax of the terrorist outrage unfolds in the same city, bickering over who gets to come on the march this weekend that commemorates the victims. Both "traditional" parties are trying to exclude FN (le Pen), rather as their opposite numbers in this country would try and exclude UKIP:
"The question doesn't even arise. We invite all republican and democratic political forces who want to bring the country together, not those that divide, stigmatize our Muslim fellow citizens and play on the fears, including since Wednesday, "said the former minister François Lamy
http://www.lemonde.fr/politique/article/2015/01/09/l-union-nationale-se-brise-sur-la-question-du-fn_4552529_823448.html0 -
Mr. Antifrank, nobody pretended they were nothing to do with animal rights.
Incidentally, it seems both sides are expecting defeat in the election.0 -
A minority Labour government is the most likely outcome at the moment IMO. A coalition doesn't seem likely.0
-
Mr. Taffys, a very fair comment.0
-
http://labourlist.org/2015/01/je-ne-suis-pas-charlie-hebdo/
A weak response from a Left-Wing Apologist0 -
Yes, I remember after the attacks how senior politicians repeatedly mentioned how such actions were "nothing to do with animal rights". Thank God they banned portrayals of eating meat on the BBC out of respect for the peace-loving animal rights activists.antifrank said:
In the 1990s and 2000s there were frequent arrests of extremist animal rights activists. I don't recall the endless stigmatisation of vegetarians.isam said:The people pretending there isn't a problem cause the problem to grow
Probably too addicted to Kipper baiting to switch mode
Of course there's a problem. But the solution is not to alienate Muslims, but to get them fully involved with solving it.
Incidentally, what percentage of vegetarians in the UK felt that chicken-eaters were legitimate targets?0 -
Deliberately goading jihadist idiots on twitter - that's certainly inflammatory; most sane people would consider that verging on extremist.Socrates said:
And the very same people get shirty and throw abuse at those pointing out there is a problem using evidence and logic. I see both surbiton and TheWatcher, after saying my views were worrying and I could be seen as an extremist respectively, have now run away with their tails between their legs when asked to justify it. I guess they're just demonstrating the same lack of logical rigour that exists at the top of the two parties they support.isam said:
The people pretending there isn't a problem cause the problem to grow
Probably too addicted to Kipper baiting to switch mode
@Morris_Dancer
I repeat the question I asked the other day: what is the country with the largest Muslim population that hasn't suffered from Islamist terrorism?
0 -
You can interpret it as everyone expects a hung Parliament with a Labour led government.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Antifrank, nobody pretended they were nothing to do with animal rights.
Incidentally, it seems both sides are expecting defeat in the election.0 -
In the pub last night, Farage's views would be regarded as pinko liberal, but I don't move in Roger's exalted circles.
Off to Boston today for family do. No doubt I'll get the wrong impression about Ukip being popular there too.
I feel sorry for the vast majority of Muslims, lumbered with the fanatics and the noisy idiots who use silly what-aboutery to defend the fanatics.0 -
After a 3 week break over the Christmas & New Year period, Stephen Fisher's latest GE Seats projection has been issued this morning, in which he again chooses to ignore the surge of support for the SNP.
The number of seats for each of the major parties (with comparison with his previous forecast on 19 December) are shown as follows:
Con ............. 294 (+5 seats)
Lab .............. 297 (-2 seats)
LibDems ........ 29 (-2 seats)
Others ........... 30 (-1 seat)
Total ........... 650 seats
0 -
Can we please stop this nonsense that France even remotely has free speech, Paul Gottfried has written extensively on this.
http://www.frontpagemag.com/2013/paul-gottfried/how-the-communist-left-killed-free-speech-in-the-west/0 -
We understand that you dont support freedom of speech, no need to keep banging on about it.TheWatcher said:
Deliberately goading jihadist idiots on twitter - that's certainly inflammatory; most sane people would consider that verging on extremist.Socrates said:
And the very same people get shirty and throw abuse at those pointing out there is a problem using evidence and logic. I see both surbiton and TheWatcher, after saying my views were worrying and I could be seen as an extremist respectively, have now run away with their tails between their legs when asked to justify it. I guess they're just demonstrating the same lack of logical rigour that exists at the top of the two parties they support.isam said:
The people pretending there isn't a problem cause the problem to grow
Probably too addicted to Kipper baiting to switch mode
@Morris_Dancer
I repeat the question I asked the other day: what is the country with the largest Muslim population that hasn't suffered from Islamist terrorism?0 -
I'll sell Tories + Labour @ 591 ta.peter_from_putney said:After a 3 week break over the Christmas & New Year period, Stephen Fisher's latest GE Seats projection has been issued this morning, in which he again chooses to ignore the surge of support for the SNP.
The number of seats for each of the major parties (with comparison with his previous forecast on 19 December) are shown as follows:
Con ............. 294 (+5 seats)
Lab .............. 297 (-2 seats)
LibDems ........ 29 (-2 seats)
Others ........... 30 (-1 seat)
Total ........... 650 seats0 -
But who is alienating Muslims? You are taking criticism of Islamic extremist terrorists as criticism of muslims in general, which isn't what people are doingantifrank said:
In the 1990s and 2000s there were frequent arrests of extremist animal rights activists. I don't recall the endless stigmatisation of vegetarians.isam said:The people pretending there isn't a problem cause the problem to grow
Probably too addicted to Kipper baiting to switch mode
Of course there's a problem. But the solution is not to alienate Muslims, but to get them fully involved with solving it.
What it reveals is that there is a class of people who think that less well educated people than themselves are simply too stupid to recognise that there can be a subset of a group that causes a problem without stigmatising the whole group, and so treated them like kids who mustn't be told the truth. You don't need to keep on pointing out that most muslims are no different to anyone else, everyone knows that, hence the lack of extremist reaction from the British public when muslims bomb, shoot or decapitate innocent people (even the ones that aren't progressive trendies manage to keep their temper bless em).0 -
Oh, I see arguing for secularism, democracy and liberalism against an extremist actually makes me extremist. Perfectly clear.TheWatcher said:
Deliberately goading jihadist idiots on twitter - that's certainly inflammatory; most sane people would consider that verging on extremist.Socrates said:
And the very same people get shirty and throw abuse at those pointing out there is a problem using evidence and logic. I see both surbiton and TheWatcher, after saying my views were worrying and I could be seen as an extremist respectively, have now run away with their tails between their legs when asked to justify it. I guess they're just demonstrating the same lack of logical rigour that exists at the top of the two parties they support.isam said:
The people pretending there isn't a problem cause the problem to grow
Probably too addicted to Kipper baiting to switch mode
@Morris_Dancer
I repeat the question I asked the other day: what is the country with the largest Muslim population that hasn't suffered from Islamist terrorism?
The problem with these jihadist muppets is that they've rarely had to defend their views with someone that argues directly with them. They all have this idea in their head that the Islamic State movement they're part of has achieved great things, when actually they've just conquered a shitty patch of desert. They need their illusions shattered.0 -
Joking apart - the emergence of Hearts, Hibs, Aberdoom, Motherwell and Dundee Hivs and now potentially Rangers with a strong element of or even total fan control is very welcome. The East End mob at least appear to have a benign dictator.malcolmg said:
Have not had time to look at events last few days , hopefully the Yank is not going to win. Needs fixing quick and a big clear out as well. All the old time servers who have been running the team need cleared out as well. Too many old buddies in there also. Needs root and branch clear out, too many jobs for the boys.TGOHF said:
EGM will be before the GE malc - unlike Scotland there is a chance the good guys will win..malcolmg said:
Beginning to look like it will mirror Rangers saga, vultures all getting into place.calum said:
I'm starting to feel sorry for the SLAB MSPs with this lot in charge - I wonder whether any of the constituency MSPs are considering defecting to the SNP?Theuniondivvie said:
McTernan, McDougall and Murphy in Holy Trinity; I think I just brought up a bit of my breakfast.Alistair said:In the least surprising news ever #McTernanPredicts has been announced as Jim Murphy's chief of staff.
The corporate raiders and vultures are being flushed out by genuine football fans - more about sport, less about making money. This is the last chance for Rangers to get the scum out - fingers crossed.0 -
Like the Charlie Hebdo people one wonders whether they have considered the innocent people's lives they are endangering. Not dissimilar to their extremist counterparts who seek to radicalise their own people like Sunni extremists repeatedly attacking Shias in Iraq to ignite a civil war.TheWatcher said:
Deliberately goading jihadist idiots on twitter - that's certainly inflammatory; most sane people would consider that verging on extremist.Socrates said:
And the very same people get shirty and throw abuse at those pointing out there is a problem using evidence and logic. I see both surbiton and TheWatcher, after saying my views were worrying and I could be seen as an extremist respectively, have now run away with their tails between their legs when asked to justify it. I guess they're just demonstrating the same lack of logical rigour that exists at the top of the two parties they support.isam said:
The people pretending there isn't a problem cause the problem to grow
Probably too addicted to Kipper baiting to switch mode
@Morris_Dancer
I repeat the question I asked the other day: what is the country with the largest Muslim population that hasn't suffered from Islamist terrorism?
0 -
You saw his comments about an imminent Scottish adjustment ? Link is below.peter_from_putney said:After a 3 week break over the Christmas & New Year period, Stephen Fisher's latest GE Seats projection has been issued this morning, in which he again chooses to ignore the surge of support for the SNP.
The number of seats for each of the major parties (with comparison with his previous forecast on 19 December) are shown as follows:
Con ............. 294 (+5 seats)
Lab .............. 297 (-2 seats)
LibDems ........ 29 (-2 seats)
Others ........... 30 (-1 seat)
Total ........... 650 seats0 -
I am sure you would agree the answer is enact a zero immigration policy and to stop importing racial and religious strife.antifrank said:
In the 1990s and 2000s there were frequent arrests of extremist animal rights activists. I don't recall the endless stigmatisation of vegetarians.isam said:The people pretending there isn't a problem cause the problem to grow
Probably too addicted to Kipper baiting to switch mode
Of course there's a problem. But the solution is not to alienate Muslims, but to get them fully involved with solving it.0 -
Like Tony Barber's fatuous (and subsequently edited) article in the FT, its being demolished in the Comments.....Financier said:http://labourlist.org/2015/01/je-ne-suis-pas-charlie-hebdo/
A weak response from a Left-Wing Apologist
0 -
By that argument anyone that wants to close down a debate should make a violent threat such that everyone else being considerate good citizens would immediately not talk about it any more. Very soon no one would be able to talk about anything controversial. Who needs the Ministry of Truth.FalseFlag said:
Like the Charlie Hebdo people one wonders whether they have considered the innocent people's lives they are endangering. Not dissimilar to their extremist counterparts who seek to radicalise their own people like Sunni extremists repeatedly attacking Shias in Iraq to ignite a civil war.TheWatcher said:
Deliberately goading jihadist idiots on twitter - that's certainly inflammatory; most sane people would consider that verging on extremist.Socrates said:
And the very same people get shirty and throw abuse at those pointing out there is a problem using evidence and logic. I see both surbiton and TheWatcher, after saying my views were worrying and I could be seen as an extremist respectively, have now run away with their tails between their legs when asked to justify it. I guess they're just demonstrating the same lack of logical rigour that exists at the top of the two parties they support.isam said:
The people pretending there isn't a problem cause the problem to grow
Probably too addicted to Kipper baiting to switch mode
@Morris_Dancer
I repeat the question I asked the other day: what is the country with the largest Muslim population that hasn't suffered from Islamist terrorism?0 -
I'd like to see odds on Carswell for a next UKIP leader market. If Farage fails to win his seat, that could pay out by the end of the year.TGOHF said:
I haven't seen Douglas Carswell jump on the hate bandwagon post Paris - and Reckless is AWOL - are they split into two factions or three ?TheWatcher said:
I'm beginning to feel sorry for Richard Tyndall.TGOHF said:
That's one view - Farage's nasty response will have turned a few stomachs.Sean_F said:
The events in France may have pushed UKIP's support up again, in which case you might expect to see that reflected in Yougov's polls.TheScreamingEagles said:
Populus' party ID weighting is harsh on UKIP.Pulpstar said:
Yougov doesn't have to do nearly as much weighting on the UKIP figure that Populus does. Any idea why - they are both internet polling Cos...TheScreamingEagles said:
UKIP higher with Populus than YouGov.Pulpstar said:
UKIP back over the 300 mark - perhaps their demise was forecast too soon.TheScreamingEagles said:@PopulusPolls: Latest Populus VI: Lab 34 (-2), Con 33 (-1), LD 8 (-1), UKIP 14 (+2), Oth 11 (+1). Tables here: http://t.co/R0TX0BX9Ir
Is interesting.
As all the pollsters say there's far too much past recall errors with UKIP voters.
But YouGov now prompt for UKIP and less severe but still have UKIP lower than Populus.
Is a mystery.
Of course, if he adopts a different approach, that could have a significant effect on the shape of British politics during the next parliament. Although I'm not quite sure which way, or to what extent.0 -
Like the Charlie Hebdo people one wonders whether they have considered the innocent people's lives they are endangering.
Oooh....You fearless champion of appeasement, you.
0 -
I suppose there must be a real skill in saying the same things with no additional information for hours on end without having awkward silences. That said I think Sky have now bored me stupid. Time for the mute button.0
-
He's 5/2 to be next UKIP leaderCasino_Royale said:
I'd like to see odds on Carswell for a next UKIP leader market. If Farage fails to win his seat, that could pay out by the end of the year.TGOHF said:
I haven't seen Douglas Carswell jump on the hate bandwagon post Paris - and Reckless is AWOL - are they split into two factions or three ?TheWatcher said:
I'm beginning to feel sorry for Richard Tyndall.TGOHF said:
That's one view - Farage's nasty response will have turned a few stomachs.Sean_F said:
The events in France may have pushed UKIP's support up again, in which case you might expect to see that reflected in Yougov's polls.TheScreamingEagles said:
Populus' party ID weighting is harsh on UKIP.Pulpstar said:
Yougov doesn't have to do nearly as much weighting on the UKIP figure that Populus does. Any idea why - they are both internet polling Cos...TheScreamingEagles said:
UKIP higher with Populus than YouGov.Pulpstar said:
UKIP back over the 300 mark - perhaps their demise was forecast too soon.TheScreamingEagles said:@PopulusPolls: Latest Populus VI: Lab 34 (-2), Con 33 (-1), LD 8 (-1), UKIP 14 (+2), Oth 11 (+1). Tables here: http://t.co/R0TX0BX9Ir
Is interesting.
As all the pollsters say there's far too much past recall errors with UKIP voters.
But YouGov now prompt for UKIP and less severe but still have UKIP lower than Populus.
Is a mystery.
Of course, if he adopts a different approach, that could have a significant effect on the shape of British politics during the next parliament. Although I'm not quite sure which way, or to what extent.
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-ukip-leader0 -
If Carswell takes over and turns UKIP into a sensible, right wing eurosceptic anti-immigration party, the Conservatives are in deep sh1t. Lots more right wingers would defect to a detoxed UKIP, people like Dan Hannan would consider them seriously, lots of right wing Tories who despise Cameron but didn't like the fruitcakery would be gone like a shot.Casino_Royale said:
I'd like to see odds on Carswell for a next UKIP leader market. If Farage fails to win his seat, that could pay out by the end of the year.TGOHF said:
I haven't seen Douglas Carswell jump on the hate bandwagon post Paris - and Reckless is AWOL - are they split into two factions or three ?TheWatcher said:
I'm beginning to feel sorry for Richard Tyndall.TGOHF said:
That's one view - Farage's nasty response will have turned a few stomachs.Sean_F said:
The events in France may have pushed UKIP's support up again, in which case you might expect to see that reflected in Yougov's polls.TheScreamingEagles said:
Populus' party ID weighting is harsh on UKIP.Pulpstar said:
Yougov doesn't have to do nearly as much weighting on the UKIP figure that Populus does. Any idea why - they are both internet polling Cos...TheScreamingEagles said:
UKIP higher with Populus than YouGov.Pulpstar said:
UKIP back over the 300 mark - perhaps their demise was forecast too soon.TheScreamingEagles said:@PopulusPolls: Latest Populus VI: Lab 34 (-2), Con 33 (-1), LD 8 (-1), UKIP 14 (+2), Oth 11 (+1). Tables here: http://t.co/R0TX0BX9Ir
Is interesting.
As all the pollsters say there's far too much past recall errors with UKIP voters.
But YouGov now prompt for UKIP and less severe but still have UKIP lower than Populus.
Is a mystery.
Of course, if he adopts a different approach, that could have a significant effect on the shape of British politics during the next parliament. Although I'm not quite sure which way, or to what extent.0 -
Betfair have a market on Most Seats in England
http://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/market?id=1.116751151&mpch=ads&rfr=630 -
You should start up a pest exterminators business. The novel and unconventional approach to removing wasp colonies would be highly entertaining, the sight of you running about and shouting, whilst beating the nests with a stick causing much hilarity for your clients.Socrates said:
Oh, I see arguing for secularism, democracy and liberalism against an extremist actually makes me extremist. Perfectly clear.TheWatcher said:
Deliberately goading jihadist idiots on twitter - that's certainly inflammatory; most sane people would consider that verging on extremist.Socrates said:
And the very same people get shirty and throw abuse at those pointing out there is a problem using evidence and logic. I see both surbiton and TheWatcher, after saying my views were worrying and I could be seen as an extremist respectively, have now run away with their tails between their legs when asked to justify it. I guess they're just demonstrating the same lack of logical rigour that exists at the top of the two parties they support.isam said:
The people pretending there isn't a problem cause the problem to grow
Probably too addicted to Kipper baiting to switch mode
@Morris_Dancer
I repeat the question I asked the other day: what is the country with the largest Muslim population that hasn't suffered from Islamist terrorism?
The problem with these jihadist muppets is that they've rarely had to defend their views with someone that argues directly with them. They all have this idea in their head that the Islamic State movement they're part of has achieved great things, when actually they've just conquered a shitty patch of desert. They need their illusions shattered.0 -
I saw a tweet from OGH that calculated the cons lead by one in England, based on the latest populus.
Can we conclude Labours NHS offensive is a bit of a damp squib??0 -
Slightly surprising given that, as the thread header shows, December was Labour's best month for quite a while.peter_from_putney said:After a 3 week break over the Christmas & New Year period, Stephen Fisher's latest GE Seats projection has been issued this morning, in which he again chooses to ignore the surge of support for the SNP.
The number of seats for each of the major parties (with comparison with his previous forecast on 19 December) are shown as follows:
Con ............. 294 (+5 seats)
Lab .............. 297 (-2 seats)
LibDems ........ 29 (-2 seats)
Others ........... 30 (-1 seat)
Total ........... 650 seats
Taking into account anticipated losses in Scotland this probably has the Tories as largest party. Seems increasingly unlikely to me.0 -
I take it that you've never watched QVC.DavidL said:I suppose there must be a real skill in saying the same things with no additional information for hours on end without having awkward silences. That said I think Sky have now bored me stupid. Time for the mute button.
0 -
The Telegraph really is circling the drain:
The Daily Telegraph seems to be in the process of slowly committing suicide. This week, we learn that they have dispensed with the column written by the excellent Isabel Hardman. She’s a columnist who is clearly in the ascendant, and you’d have thought they have so few female writers that Isabel would be at the very bottom of their ‘axe’ list.
http://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2015/01/iain-dale-camerons-long-back-short-legs-and-weight-gain-and-mine.html0 -
I am not sure if that is funnier, or the people that what to bend over, cover their rear-end in sugar syrup and wait to be stung, and then act all surprised and tell the wasps that they had the wrong backside because it wasn't being nasty to them. The wasp of course actually doesn't care whose backside it is, so long as it covered in sugar syrup, or as we might otherwise call it, liberal western values. I am sure only a small percentage of the wasps will sting, but even so its going to hurt.TheWatcher said:
You should start up a pest exterminators business. The novel and unconventional approach to removing wasp colonies would be highly entertaining, the sight of you running about and shouting, whilst beating the nests with a stick causing much hilarity for your clients.Socrates said:
Oh, I see arguing for secularism, democracy and liberalism against an extremist actually makes me extremist. Perfectly clear.TheWatcher said:
Deliberately goading jihadist idiots on twitter - that's certainly inflammatory; most sane people would consider that verging on extremist.Socrates said:
And the very same people get shirty and throw abuse at those pointing out there is a problem using evidence and logic. I see both surbiton and TheWatcher, after saying my views were worrying and I could be seen as an extremist respectively, have now run away with their tails between their legs when asked to justify it. I guess they're just demonstrating the same lack of logical rigour that exists at the top of the two parties they support.isam said:
The people pretending there isn't a problem cause the problem to grow
Probably too addicted to Kipper baiting to switch mode
@Morris_Dancer
I repeat the question I asked the other day: what is the country with the largest Muslim population that hasn't suffered from Islamist terrorism?
The problem with these jihadist muppets is that they've rarely had to defend their views with someone that argues directly with them. They all have this idea in their head that the Islamic State movement they're part of has achieved great things, when actually they've just conquered a shitty patch of desert. They need their illusions shattered.
0 -
''The novel and unconventional approach to removing wasp colonies would be highly entertaining, the sight of you running about and shouting, whilst beating the nests with a stick causing much hilarity for your clients.''
That is one of the absurdest comparisons I have ever read on here. Utterly ridiculous.
Certain Cameroonian tories have taken leave of their senses over these incidents.0 -
Meanwhile, anyone wondering how the deficit is going to be reduced might be interested in this apparently obscure article:
http://www.out-law.com/en/articles/2015/report-on-future-of-uk-measures-of-inflation-recommends-end-to-rpi-but-slow-process-of-change-continues-says-expert/0 -
OGH recently had a thread where he struggled to see the Tories as favourites in this market. So I backed Labour at Evens in this one, spent a day actually thinking about it - laid Labour off and then rebacked them in the GB market at evens.TheScreamingEagles said:Betfair have a market on Most Seats in England
http://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/market?id=1.116751151&mpch=ads&rfr=63
I think Con @ 1.43 is a lay though.0 -
Thanks TGOHF ....... I've now seen this, which I would have thought might have been headlined in their forecast, given its importance:TGOHF said:
You saw his comments about an imminent Scottish adjustment ? Link is below.peter_from_putney said:After a 3 week break over the Christmas & New Year period, Stephen Fisher's latest GE Seats projection has been issued this morning, in which he again chooses to ignore the surge of support for the SNP.
The number of seats for each of the major parties (with comparison with his previous forecast on 19 December) are shown as follows:
Con ............. 294 (+5 seats)
Lab .............. 297 (-2 seats)
LibDems ........ 29 (-2 seats)
Others ........... 30 (-1 seat)
Total ........... 650 seats
"However, we have yet to finalise a new method that properly takes into account the SNP’s rise and Labour’s fall in Scotland – we’ll be introducing it in the next week or two. That means that, for the moment, our forecasts come with a big health warning: they are likely to overestimate Labour.
If you want to do a rough-and-ready adjustment, the Labour-to-SNP swing in Scotland probably means around 35 seats off Labour’s total and 5 off the Lib Dems’. Clearly, therefore, the chances of Labour being the largest party are lower than the 52% our current model suggests – in reality, the Scottish situation means the Conservatives are clearly the favourites."
Making the "rough and ready adjustment" suggested, the adjusted seats tally would then be as follows:
Con .............. 294
Lab ............... 262
LibDem .......... 24
Others ............ 70
Total ............ 650 seats0 -
I think these terrorist should be told that if they martyr themselves they'll be buried wrapped in pigskin.0
-
Yeah, the Tories won the popular vote in England in 2005 but Labour got the most seats.Pulpstar said:
OGH recently had a thread where he struggled to see the Tories as favourites in this market. So I backed Labour at Evens in this one, spent a day actually thinking about it - laid Labour off and then rebacked them in the GB market at evens.TheScreamingEagles said:Betfair have a market on Most Seats in England
http://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/market?id=1.116751151&mpch=ads&rfr=63
I think Con @ 1.43 is a lay though.
0 -
Look who is there at 200-1.TheScreamingEagles said:
He's 5/2 to be next UKIP leaderCasino_Royale said:
I'd like to see odds on Carswell for a next UKIP leader market. If Farage fails to win his seat, that could pay out by the end of the year.TGOHF said:
I haven't seen Douglas Carswell jump on the hate bandwagon post Paris - and Reckless is AWOL - are they split into two factions or three ?TheWatcher said:
I'm beginning to feel sorry for Richard Tyndall.TGOHF said:
That's one view - Farage's nasty response will have turned a few stomachs.Sean_F said:
The events in France may have pushed UKIP's support up again, in which case you might expect to see that reflected in Yougov's polls.TheScreamingEagles said:
Populus' party ID weighting is harsh on UKIP.Pulpstar said:
Yougov doesn't have to do nearly as much weighting on the UKIP figure that Populus does. Any idea why - they are both internet polling Cos...TheScreamingEagles said:
UKIP higher with Populus than YouGov.Pulpstar said:
UKIP back over the 300 mark - perhaps their demise was forecast too soon.TheScreamingEagles said:@PopulusPolls: Latest Populus VI: Lab 34 (-2), Con 33 (-1), LD 8 (-1), UKIP 14 (+2), Oth 11 (+1). Tables here: http://t.co/R0TX0BX9Ir
Is interesting.
As all the pollsters say there's far too much past recall errors with UKIP voters.
But YouGov now prompt for UKIP and less severe but still have UKIP lower than Populus.
Is a mystery.
Of course, if he adopts a different approach, that could have a significant effect on the shape of British politics during the next parliament. Although I'm not quite sure which way, or to what extent.
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-ukip-leader0 -
Ed has a 5 Point Plan! which, mysteriously does not include a Judge Led Enquirytaffys said:I saw a tweet from OGH that calculated the cons lead by one in England, based on the latest populus.
Can we conclude Labours NHS offensive is a bit of a damp squib??
http://labourlist.org/2015/01/miliband-unveils-5-point-plan-to-deal-with-ae-crisis/
Its also appears only to apply to England, which is odd, given (Labour run) Wales is an even bigger mess...
And as for Scotland?
Who knows?
The most recent data is not from last week, or last month.....but from September.....
0 -
I'm all for getting rid of wasps, but there are better, subtler and more effective ways of doing so than simply kicking the nest over, and shouting at it.Indigo said:
I am not sure if that is funnier, or the people that what to bend over, cover their rear-end in sugar syrup and wait to be stung, and then act all surprised and tell the wasps that they had the wrong backside because it wasn't being nasty to them. The wasp of course actually doesn't care whose backside it is, so long as it covered in sugar syrup, or as we might otherwise call it, liberal western values. I am sure only a small percentage of the wasps will sting, but even so its going to hurt.TheWatcher said:
You should start up a pest exterminators business. The novel and unconventional approach to removing wasp colonies would be highly entertaining, the sight of you running about and shouting, whilst beating the nests with a stick causing much hilarity for your clients.Socrates said:
Oh, I see arguing for secularism, democracy and liberalism against an extremist actually makes me extremist. Perfectly clear.TheWatcher said:
Deliberately goading jihadist idiots on twitter - that's certainly inflammatory; most sane people would consider that verging on extremist.Socrates said:
And the very same people get shirty and throw abuse at those pointing out there is a problem using evidence and logic. I see both surbiton and TheWatcher, after saying my views were worrying and I could be seen as an extremist respectively, have now run away with their tails between their legs when asked to justify it. I guess they're just demonstrating the same lack of logical rigour that exists at the top of the two parties they support.isam said:
The people pretending there isn't a problem cause the problem to grow
Probably too addicted to Kipper baiting to switch mode
@Morris_Dancer
I repeat the question I asked the other day: what is the country with the largest Muslim population that hasn't suffered from Islamist terrorism?
The problem with these jihadist muppets is that they've rarely had to defend their views with someone that argues directly with them. They all have this idea in their head that the Islamic State movement they're part of has achieved great things, when actually they've just conquered a shitty patch of desert. They need their illusions shattered.0 -
So all you Putin lovers, quite a few PBers wouldn't get driving licenses in your beloved Russia
Russia has listed transsexual and transgender people among those who will no longer qualify for driving licences.
Fetishism, exhibitionism and voyeurism are also included as "mental disorders" now barring people from driving.
The government says it is tightening medical controls for drivers because Russia has too many road accidents.
"Pathological" gambling and compulsive stealing are also on the list. Russian psychiatrists and human rights lawyers have condemned the move.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-307356730 -
Dale mentions GE turn-out at the end of this blog. He doubts it will be 70 now, given the huge general turn-off and the deal-as-ditch-water start to the four month campaign. Is there a market on this somewhere yet?CarlottaVance said:The Telegraph really is circling the drain:
The Daily Telegraph seems to be in the process of slowly committing suicide. This week, we learn that they have dispensed with the column written by the excellent Isabel Hardman. She’s a columnist who is clearly in the ascendant, and you’d have thought they have so few female writers that Isabel would be at the very bottom of their ‘axe’ list.
http://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2015/01/iain-dale-camerons-long-back-short-legs-and-weight-gain-and-mine.html
0 -
Clearly an American conspiracy against something something somethingTheScreamingEagles said:So all you Putin lovers, quite a few PBers wouldn't get driving licenses in your beloved Russia
Russia has listed transsexual and transgender people among those who will no longer qualify for driving licences.
Fetishism, exhibitionism and voyeurism are also included as "mental disorders" now barring people from driving.
The government says it is tightening medical controls for drivers because Russia has too many road accidents.
"Pathological" gambling and compulsive stealing are also on the list. Russian psychiatrists and human rights lawyers have condemned the move.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-307356730
This discussion has been closed.