UKIP back over the 300 mark - perhaps their demise was forecast too soon.
UKIP higher with Populus than YouGov.
Is interesting.
Yougov doesn't have to do nearly as much weighting on the UKIP figure that Populus does. Any idea why - they are both internet polling Cos...
Populus' party ID weighting is harsh on UKIP.
As all the pollsters say there's far too much past recall errors with UKIP voters.
But YouGov now prompt for UKIP and less severe but still have UKIP lower than Populus.
Is a mystery.
The events in France may have pushed UKIP's support up again, in which case you might expect to see that reflected in Yougov's polls.
That's one view - Farage's nasty response will have turned a few stomachs.
I'm beginning to feel sorry for Richard Tyndall.
I haven't seen Douglas Carswell jump on the hate bandwagon post Paris - and Reckless is AWOL - are they split into two factions or three ?
I'd like to see odds on Carswell for a next UKIP leader market. If Farage fails to win his seat, that could pay out by the end of the year.
Of course, if he adopts a different approach, that could have a significant effect on the shape of British politics during the next parliament. Although I'm not quite sure which way, or to what extent.
I'm all for getting rid of wasps, but there are better, subtler and more effective ways of doing so than simply kicking the nest over, and shouting at it.
The Daily Telegraph seems to be in the process of slowly committing suicide. This week, we learn that they have dispensed with the column written by the excellent Isabel Hardman. She’s a columnist who is clearly in the ascendant, and you’d have thought they have so few female writers that Isabel would be at the very bottom of their ‘axe’ list.
Dale mentions GE turn-out at the end of this blog. He doubts it will be 70 now, given the huge general turn-off and the deal-as-ditch-water start to the four month campaign. Is there a market on this somewhere yet?
The people pretending there isn't a problem cause the problem to grow
Probably too addicted to Kipper baiting to switch mode
And the very same people get shirty and throw abuse at those pointing out there is a problem using evidence and logic. I see both surbiton and TheWatcher, after saying my views were worrying and I could be seen as an extremist respectively, have now run away with their tails between their legs when asked to justify it. I guess they're just demonstrating the same lack of logical rigour that exists at the top of the two parties they support.
I repeat the question I asked the other day: what is the country with the largest Muslim population that hasn't suffered from Islamist terrorism?
Deliberately goading jihadist idiots on twitter - that's certainly inflammatory; most sane people would consider that verging on extremist.
Like the Charlie Hebdo people one wonders whether they have considered the innocent people's lives they are endangering. Not dissimilar to their extremist counterparts who seek to radicalise their own people like Sunni extremists repeatedly attacking Shias in Iraq to ignite a civil war.
By that argument anyone that wants to close down a debate should make a violent threat such that everyone else being considerate good citizens would immediately not talk about it any more. Very soon no one would be able to talk about anything controversial. Who needs the Ministry of Truth.
There are laws against making and carrying out violent acts.
Sad reflection of French society that Charlie Hebdo is lauded for its vulgar, offensive and deeply unfunny output whilst such severe restrictions are placed on rightist expression. Of course for 68ers it is free speech for me but not for three. Repeal Loi Gayssot.
Of course historically blasphemy laws existed for good reason.
The Daily Telegraph seems to be in the process of slowly committing suicide. This week, we learn that they have dispensed with the column written by the excellent Isabel Hardman. She’s a columnist who is clearly in the ascendant, and you’d have thought they have so few female writers that Isabel would be at the very bottom of their ‘axe’ list.
UKIP back over the 300 mark - perhaps their demise was forecast too soon.
UKIP higher with Populus than YouGov.
Is interesting.
Yougov doesn't have to do nearly as much weighting on the UKIP figure that Populus does. Any idea why - they are both internet polling Cos...
Populus' party ID weighting is harsh on UKIP.
As all the pollsters say there's far too much past recall errors with UKIP voters.
But YouGov now prompt for UKIP and less severe but still have UKIP lower than Populus.
Is a mystery.
The events in France may have pushed UKIP's support up again, in which case you might expect to see that reflected in Yougov's polls.
That's one view - Farage's nasty response will have turned a few stomachs.
I'm beginning to feel sorry for Richard Tyndall.
I haven't seen Douglas Carswell jump on the hate bandwagon post Paris - and Reckless is AWOL - are they split into two factions or three ?
I'd like to see odds on Carswell for a next UKIP leader market. If Farage fails to win his seat, that could pay out by the end of the year.
Of course, if he adopts a different approach, that could have a significant effect on the shape of British politics during the next parliament. Although I'm not quite sure which way, or to what extent.
UKIP back over the 300 mark - perhaps their demise was forecast too soon.
UKIP higher with Populus than YouGov.
Is interesting.
Yougov doesn't have to do nearly as much weighting on the UKIP figure that Populus does. Any idea why - they are both internet polling Cos...
Populus' party ID weighting is harsh on UKIP.
As all the pollsters say there's far too much past recall errors with UKIP voters.
But YouGov now prompt for UKIP and less severe but still have UKIP lower than Populus.
Is a mystery.
The events in France may have pushed UKIP's support up again, in which case you might expect to see that reflected in Yougov's polls.
That's one view - Farage's nasty response will have turned a few stomachs.
I'm beginning to feel sorry for Richard Tyndall.
I haven't seen Douglas Carswell jump on the hate bandwagon post Paris - and Reckless is AWOL - are they split into two factions or three ?
I'd like to see odds on Carswell for a next UKIP leader market. If Farage fails to win his seat, that could pay out by the end of the year.
Of course, if he adopts a different approach, that could have a significant effect on the shape of British politics during the next parliament. Although I'm not quite sure which way, or to what extent.
Mr. Rog, indeed. It won't happen, but it'd be deserving.
Sad to see some here arguing that the bounds of free speech should be determined by the preference of murderers.
Careful, any minute someone is going to dare you to publish something under your own name. Sometimes I think that some of the posters here are actually http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ELIZA
Mr. Pulpstar, when I had some physio in my teens I think I had a 28" inside leg (and was 5'8" or perhaps a little shorter), and the physio, who was a delightful sadist, commented that I had long legs.
The Daily Telegraph seems to be in the process of slowly committing suicide. This week, we learn that they have dispensed with the column written by the excellent Isabel Hardman. She’s a columnist who is clearly in the ascendant, and you’d have thought they have so few female writers that Isabel would be at the very bottom of their ‘axe’ list.
After a 3 week break over the Christmas & New Year period, Stephen Fisher's latest GE Seats projection has been issued this morning, in which he again chooses to ignore the surge of support for the SNP. The number of seats for each of the major parties (with comparison with his previous forecast on 19 December) are shown as follows:
You saw his comments about an imminent Scottish adjustment ? Link is below.
Thanks TGOHF ....... I've now seen this, which I would have thought might have been headlined in their forecast, given its importance:
"However, we have yet to finalise a new method that properly takes into account the SNP’s rise and Labour’s fall in Scotland – we’ll be introducing it in the next week or two. That means that, for the moment, our forecasts come with a big health warning: they are likely to overestimate Labour.
If you want to do a rough-and-ready adjustment, the Labour-to-SNP swing in Scotland probably means around 35 seats off Labour’s total and 5 off the Lib Dems’. Clearly, therefore, the chances of Labour being the largest party are lower than the 52% our current model suggests – in reality, the Scottish situation means the Conservatives are clearly the favourites."
Making the "rough and ready adjustment" suggested, the adjusted seats tally would then be as follows:
I think your adjusted model is more or less what we'll get +/- 5 seats for each major party. Major an extra +/- 5 seats in the case of the relationship between Labour/SNP, in Labour's favour.
UKIP back over the 300 mark - perhaps their demise was forecast too soon.
UKIP higher with Populus than YouGov.
Is interesting.
Yougov doesn't have to do nearly as much weighting on the UKIP figure that Populus does. Any idea why - they are both internet polling Cos...
Populus' party ID weighting is harsh on UKIP.
As all the pollsters say there's far too much past recall errors with UKIP voters.
But YouGov now prompt for UKIP and less severe but still have UKIP lower than Populus.
Is a mystery.
The events in France may have pushed UKIP's support up again, in which case you might expect to see that reflected in Yougov's polls.
That's one view - Farage's nasty response will have turned a few stomachs.
I'm beginning to feel sorry for Richard Tyndall.
I haven't seen Douglas Carswell jump on the hate bandwagon post Paris - and Reckless is AWOL - are they split into two factions or three ?
I'd like to see odds on Carswell for a next UKIP leader market. If Farage fails to win his seat, that could pay out by the end of the year.
Of course, if he adopts a different approach, that could have a significant effect on the shape of British politics during the next parliament. Although I'm not quite sure which way, or to what extent.
I'm tempted to back Carswell as next UKIP leader but if Farage gets elected it may be some time before the he steps down.
Personally I would like to see either Douglas Carswell or Steven Woolfe as the next leader. Steven has always impressed me when being interviewed and would in my opinion be a really strong candidate.
"That's one view - Farage's nasty response will have turned a few stomachs."
The level of debate in France following Wednesday's outrage is in marked contrast to that which takes place here under similar circumstances. Farage's doesn't seem untypical.
I wonder how much it is due to the cheer leaders in our popular press. The proliferation of 'Littlejohns' and how much is down to the way philosophers are revered in France producing a culture which is deeper and more profound.
You're being pessimistic Roger.
Look how calmly the country reacted after 7/7.
The BNP tried to stoke up tensions, but nothing really happened.
Is one of the things I like about this country, it is the Keep Calm, and Carry on Mentality. </blockquote
"The BNP tried to stoke up tensions" - link, I don't remember this being the case.
UKIP back over the 300 mark - perhaps their demise was forecast too soon.
UKIP higher with Populus than YouGov.
Is interesting.
Yougov doesn't have to do nearly as much weighting on the UKIP figure that Populus does. Any idea why - they are both internet polling Cos...
Populus' party ID weighting is harsh on UKIP.
As all the pollsters say there's far too much past recall errors with UKIP voters.
But YouGov now prompt for UKIP and less severe but still have UKIP lower than Populus.
Is a mystery.
The events in France may have pushed UKIP's support up again, in which case you might expect to see that reflected in Yougov's polls.
That's one view - Farage's nasty response will have turned a few stomachs.
I'm beginning to feel sorry for Richard Tyndall.
I haven't seen Douglas Carswell jump on the hate bandwagon post Paris - and Reckless is AWOL - are they split into two factions or three ?
I'd like to see odds on Carswell for a next UKIP leader market. If Farage fails to win his seat, that could pay out by the end of the year.
Of course, if he adopts a different approach, that could have a significant effect on the shape of British politics during the next parliament. Although I'm not quite sure which way, or to what extent.
I should probably Google before I post, but pb'ers are so good it's sometimes quicker to post the question on a thread. Particularly when you're in and out of meetings at work and on an iPhone!
To one decimal place today's Populus is Lab 33.7, Con 33.3.
So Con again a bit unlucky on the rounding - obviously that is false precision but with today's YouGov also showing a tie it is now looking very close to neck and neck.
Seven polls this week - straight average is Lab lead 1.14.
I think some of the "apologist" articles and the what-aboutery is from people who don't really believe some of the drivel they are writing. It's because they are terrified that Ukip will get a poll boost.
But I can't see a big or long-lasting boost at all. Their classification as a major party for the election campaign will be more important.
But I'll do some non-scientific investigations this weekend on their support in the pubs of Vilnius Central (Boston).
UKIP back over the 300 mark - perhaps their demise was forecast too soon.
UKIP higher with Populus than YouGov.
Is interesting.
Yougov doesn't have to do nearly as much weighting on the UKIP figure that Populus does. Any idea why - they are both internet polling Cos...
Populus' party ID weighting is harsh on UKIP.
As all the pollsters say there's far too much past recall errors with UKIP voters.
But YouGov now prompt for UKIP and less severe but still have UKIP lower than Populus.
Is a mystery.
The events in France may have pushed UKIP's support up again, in which case you might expect to see that reflected in Yougov's polls.
That's one view - Farage's nasty response will have turned a few stomachs.
I'm beginning to feel sorry for Richard Tyndall.
I haven't seen Douglas Carswell jump on the hate bandwagon post Paris - and Reckless is AWOL - are they split into two factions or three ?
I'd like to see odds on Carswell for a next UKIP leader market. If Farage fails to win his seat, that could pay out by the end of the year.
Of course, if he adopts a different approach, that could have a significant effect on the shape of British politics during the next parliament. Although I'm not quite sure which way, or to what extent.
If Carswell takes over and turns UKIP into a sensible, right wing eurosceptic anti-immigration party, the Conservatives are in deep sh1t. Lots more right wingers would defect to a detoxed UKIP, people like Dan Hannan would consider them seriously, lots of right wing Tories who despise Cameron but didn't like the fruitcakery would be gone like a shot.
It's the sort of UKIP I want - although I'd caveat controlled immigration, rather than "anti"- but i don't know if Carswell would connect in the same way nationally with the WWC as Farage does, though I accept Carswell does locally in Clacton.
Both Carswell and Hannan are correct when they say withdrawalists won't win a referendum until we present a warm open optimistic international perspective on EU withdrawal, with a clear thought through alternative.
40% of votes are in the bag. It's the other 10.01% that aren't, and won't be unless that happens.
LD to L switchers now below 20% on a gross basis. Seems to have gone Green. Is this a one off or part of a trend. Nick Palmer mentioned that the LD switchers are voters rather than non voters.
Mark Senior's pointed out for a long time now that Labour gets 30ish% of 2010 LibDems who have made up their minds, but the proportion is more like 20% if you include doubtfuls. The current Populus shows a much higher % of 2010 LibDems who aren't sure they'll vote at all.
IMO the 2010 LibDems fell into three broad categories:
* Loyalists: core lifelong liberals who vote for the party no matter what. They are still LibDem, and will vote. * Red Liberals: left-wingers who felt New Labour was too centrist and too keen on foreign wars. They are now mostly Labour, though some are Green. They can't wait to vote and are more zealous than the average Labour or Tory voter. * NOTAs who felt that Tories and Labour were useless. They now mostly feel that LibDems are useless too, so are not sure what to do. UKIP? Abstain? LibDem again faut de mieux? Ponder, ponder.
Sitting LD MPs will get all the loyalists, some of the Red Liberals and maybe some of the NOTAs. Other LibDem candidates will mainly get the loyalists.
Have angry Christians been blowing people up lately? There was the Breivik incident, which was terrible but also isolated. Against it there's 9/11, 7/7, the Madrid bombings, the Charlie Hebdo massacre, Boko Haram in Nigeria, Taliban in Afghanistan and Pakistan, Al-Qaeda and ISIS.
When was the last time a cartoon lampooning Jesus led to bloodshed in France or the UK?
Yes, there's of course a genuine issue about Islamist terrorism. My response was about the limitations of polling in showing that the general views of terrorists might have wider support. As dugardbardier's examples show more eloquently than mine, loads of people in all sectors of society express nutty views to polls. (Hell, there are even people who say they'll vote Tory!)
Should Stephen Fisher's somewhat belated SNP-modified forecast prove accurate, then Labour would need to form a three party coalition with both the LibDems and SNP to achieve a HoC majority, for which those nice people at Ladbrokes are offering odds of 25/1. Rather more likely in their view is a Lab & LibDem link-up at 13/2 or a Lab & SNP coalition at 14/1.
Should Stephen Fisher's somewhat belated SNP-modified forecast prove accurate, then Labour would need to form a three party coalition with both the LibDems and SNP to achieve a HoC majority, for which those nice people at Ladbrokes are offering odds of 25/1. Rather more likely in their view is a Lab & LibDem link-up at 13/2 or a Lab & SNP coalition at 14/1.
I note no one is specifically quoting a "minority coalition". Clearly it's pretty unlikely, but if e.g. Con + LD = 324, I reckon it's a vague runner. Presumably it would be settled as Con-LD coalition?
I suppose there must be a real skill in saying the same things with no additional information for hours on end without having awkward silences. That said I think Sky have now bored me stupid. Time for the mute button.
Absolutely spot on and 'breaking news' is constantly misused sometimes relating to previous days events
Tends to support that 7/1 bet at Hills as being value.
Just 1 seat is the 6/1 favourite - and they are in the debates ?
Alternatively, you could argue that they are in an analogous position to the Tories in Scotland. You wouldn't exclude the Tories from a Scottish GE debate.
Tends to support that 7/1 bet at Hills as being value.
Yes, it's excellent value, TP, as many here have noted.
Btw, you asked recently about the reason for my shiny pate. I didn't have time to reply, but I'd have thought you would have known anyway that it is due to the incessant rubbing of the head against the headboard.
Tends to support that 7/1 bet at Hills as being value.
Yes, it's excellent value, TP, as many here have noted.
Btw, you asked recently about the reason for my shiny pate. I didn't have time to reply, but I'd have thought you would have known anyway that it is due to the incessant rubbing of the head against the headboard.
What's your own excuse?
Trying to outwit Kippers and aged lefties on here.
The BNP tried to stoke up tensions" - link, I don't remember this being the case.
Within a week, they put out a leaflet in a council election using the bombed out bus on 7/7 with the strapline "Maybe now it's time to start listening to the BNP"
They also protested outside of a few mosques (that you'll have to take my word for, because they did so outside one of the Mosques in Sheffield a week later, offering the congregation sausage rolls.
They also accused the government of not holding an inquiry into the 7/7 attacks to protect Muslims from scrutiny.
Should Stephen Fisher's somewhat belated SNP-modified forecast prove accurate, then Labour would need to form a three party coalition with both the LibDems and SNP to achieve a HoC majority, for which those nice people at Ladbrokes are offering odds of 25/1. Rather more likely in their view is a Lab & LibDem link-up at 13/2 or a Lab & SNP coalition at 14/1.
I note no one is specifically quoting a "minority coalition". Clearly it's pretty unlikely, but if e.g. Con + LD = 324, I reckon it's a vague runner. Presumably it would be settled as Con-LD coalition?
Of course. For 4 days following the election 5 years ago a minority coalition was seriously considered (to varying degrees) between Labour and the Liberal Democrats.
They would only have had 315 seats together. To be honest, if a Con-Lib minority coalition manages to assemble 320+ seats between them, it's probably do-able.
LD to L switchers now below 20% on a gross basis. Seems to have gone Green. Is this a one off or part of a trend. Nick Palmer mentioned that the LD switchers are voters rather than non voters.
Mark Senior's pointed out for a long time now that Labour gets 30ish% of 2010 LibDems who have made up their minds, but the proportion is more like 20% if you include doubtfuls. The current Populus shows a much higher % of 2010 LibDems who aren't sure they'll vote at all.
IMO the 2010 LibDems fell into three broad categories:
* Loyalists: core lifelong liberals who vote for the party no matter what. They are still LibDem, and will vote. * Red Liberals: left-wingers who felt New Labour was too centrist and too keen on foreign wars. They are now mostly Labour, though some are Green. They can't wait to vote and are more zealous than the average Labour or Tory voter. * NOTAs who felt that Tories and Labour were useless. They now mostly feel that LibDems are useless too, so are not sure what to do. UKIP? Abstain? LibDem again faut de mieux? Ponder, ponder.
Sitting LD MPs will get all the loyalists, some of the Red Liberals and maybe some of the NOTAs. Other LibDem candidates will mainly get the loyalists.
Have angry Christians been blowing people up lately? There was the Breivik incident, which was terrible but also isolated. Against it there's 9/11, 7/7, the Madrid bombings, the Charlie Hebdo massacre, Boko Haram in Nigeria, Taliban in Afghanistan and Pakistan, Al-Qaeda and ISIS.
When was the last time a cartoon lampooning Jesus led to bloodshed in France or the UK?
Yes, there's of course a genuine issue about Islamist terrorism. My response was about the limitations of polling in showing that the general views of terrorists might have wider support. As dugardbardier's examples show more eloquently than mine, loads of people in all sectors of society express nutty views to polls. (Hell, there are even people who say they'll vote Tory!)
Mostly, terrorists need a wider "sea" of sympathisers in which to swim. We need to identify where that sea exists, in relation to Islamist terrorism. I think it would be unfair to say that all socially conservative Muslims form part of that sea, in much the same way that it would be unfair to say that all Irish Republicans formed part of the sea in which the IRA swam.
But the sea is always going to be bigger than just the terrorists and their immediate families.
I'd like to see odds on Carswell for a next UKIP leader market. If Farage fails to win his seat, that could pay out by the end of the year.
Of course, if he adopts a different approach, that could have a significant effect on the shape of British politics during the next parliament. Although I'm not quite sure which way, or to what extent.
If Carswell takes over and turns UKIP into a sensible, right wing eurosceptic anti-immigration party, the Conservatives are in deep sh1t. Lots more right wingers would defect to a detoxed UKIP, people like Dan Hannan would consider them seriously, lots of right wing Tories who despise Cameron but didn't like the fruitcakery would be gone like a shot.
It's the sort of UKIP I want - although I'd caveat controlled immigration, rather than "anti"- but i don't know if Carswell would connect in the same way nationally with the WWC as Farage does, though I accept Carswell does locally in Clacton.
Both Carswell and Hannan are correct when they say withdrawalists won't win a referendum until we present a warm open optimistic international perspective on EU withdrawal, with a clear thought through alternative.
40% of votes are in the bag. It's the other 10.01% that aren't, and won't be unless that happens.
Yes I meant controlled immigration, not zero immigration, poor choice of words. I am not too worried about the WWC vote so long as the Tories are social liberals. I actually think the UKIP leadership are going in the wrong with the current neo-labour policies they are considering. The WWC are defined by their aspiration, antipathy to immigrant they believe are taking their jobs and their social conservatism (which is why Emily "Hug a Jihadist" Thornbury despises them so much), an economically dry platform, with controlled immigration, and conspicuous moves in favour of rolling up political correctness would have that vote safely in the bag.
"Le Parisien says that France's Muslim community is "traumatised" by Wednesday's deadly attack. "Some fear increased stigmatisation," the newspaper reports."
It's the families and friends of those slaughtered who are traumatised.
If they're worried about stigmatisation, rather than going "poor us" perhaps they could think about the people who have suffered loss, atrocious and brutal loss, and then about what they need to do to their young men to stop them turning into killers.
There is also a "Je Suis Ahmed" meme developing to honour the memory of the officer gunned down on the street. May he rest in peace.
Overnight, details have emerged of the two killers had reportedly spared the lives of two women during the Charlie Hebdo massacre. Sigolene Vinson told Radio France International how one of the killers pointed a gun at her, but then had a change of heart. She told the station that he said "I'm not killing you because you are a woman and we don't kill women, but you have to convert to Islam, read the Koran and wear a veil."
Except that they did kill a woman and threatened the child of another woman. And, as we have seen with IS, they do kill women - and give instructions on how to rape and enslave them as well.
LD to L switchers now below 20% on a gross basis. Seems to have gone Green. Is this a one off or part of a trend. Nick Palmer mentioned that the LD switchers are voters rather than non voters.
Mark Senior's pointed out for a long time now that Labour gets 30ish% of 2010 LibDems who have made up their minds, but the proportion is more like 20% if you include doubtfuls. The current Populus shows a much higher % of 2010 LibDems who aren't sure they'll vote at all.
IMO the 2010 LibDems fell into three broad categories:
* Loyalists: core lifelong liberals who vote for the party no matter what. They are still LibDem, and will vote. * Red Liberals: left-wingers who felt New Labour was too centrist and too keen on foreign wars. They are now mostly Labour, though some are Green. They can't wait to vote and are more zealous than the average Labour or Tory voter. * NOTAs who felt that Tories and Labour were useless. They now mostly feel that LibDems are useless too, so are not sure what to do. UKIP? Abstain? LibDem again faut de mieux? Ponder, ponder.
Sitting LD MPs will get all the loyalists, some of the Red Liberals and maybe some of the NOTAs. Other LibDem candidates will mainly get the loyalists.
Have angry Christians been blowing people up lately? There was the Breivik incident, which was terrible but also isolated. Against it there's 9/11, 7/7, the Madrid bombings, the Charlie Hebdo massacre, Boko Haram in Nigeria, Taliban in Afghanistan and Pakistan, Al-Qaeda and ISIS.
When was the last time a cartoon lampooning Jesus led to bloodshed in France or the UK?
Yes, there's of course a genuine issue about Islamist terrorism. My response was about the limitations of polling in showing that the general views of terrorists might have wider support. As dugardbardier's examples show more eloquently than mine, loads of people in all sectors of society express nutty views to polls. (Hell, there are even people who say they'll vote Tory!)
Mostly, terrorists need a wider "sea" of sympathisers in which to swim. We need to identify where that sea exists, in relation to Islamist terrorism. I think it would be unfair to say that all socially conservative Muslims form part of that sea, in much the same way that it would be unfair to say that all Irish Republicans formed part of the sea in which the IRA swam.
But the sea is always going to be bigger than just the terrorists and their immediate families.
The "sea" seems to be about 200,000 if the Yougov is correct.
I suppose there must be a real skill in saying the same things with no additional information for hours on end without having awkward silences. That said I think Sky have now bored me stupid. Time for the mute button.
Absolutely spot on and 'breaking news' is constantly misused sometimes relating to previous days events
And now one of the few bits of information provided over 20 times is wrong. The hostage is apparently male.
Oh, I see arguing for secularism, democracy and liberalism against an extremist actually makes me extremist. Perfectly clear.
The problem with these jihadist muppets is that they've rarely had to defend their views with someone that argues directly with them. They all have this idea in their head that the Islamic State movement they're part of has achieved great things, when actually they've just conquered a shitty patch of desert. They need their illusions shattered.
You should start up a pest exterminators business. The novel and unconventional approach to removing wasp colonies would be highly entertaining, the sight of you running about and shouting, whilst beating the nests with a stick causing much hilarity for your clients.
Ah, I think we've stumbled across the fundamental principle that's dividing us. You see, I come from the position that humans are capable of argument and reason, rather than equivalent to unthinking insects.
The people pretending there isn't a problem cause the problem to grow
Probably too addicted to Kipper baiting to switch mode
And the very same people get shirty and throw abuse at those pointing out there is a problem using evidence and logic. I see both surbiton and TheWatcher, after saying my views were worrying and I could be seen as an extremist respectively, have now run away with their tails between their legs when asked to justify it. I guess they're just demonstrating the same lack of logical rigour that exists at the top of the two parties they support.
I repeat the question I asked the other day: what is the country with the largest Muslim population that hasn't suffered from Islamist terrorism?
Deliberately goading jihadist idiots on twitter - that's certainly inflammatory; most sane people would consider that verging on extremist.
Like the Charlie Hebdo people one wonders whether they have considered the innocent people's lives they are endangering. Not dissimilar to their extremist counterparts who seek to radicalise their own people like Sunni extremists repeatedly attacking Shias in Iraq to ignite a civil war.
By that argument anyone that wants to close down a debate should make a violent threat such that everyone else being considerate good citizens would immediately not talk about it any more. Very soon no one would be able to talk about anything controversial. Who needs the Ministry of Truth.
FalseFlag is not particularly worried about defending democratic values because he doesn't really support them.
Have angry Christians been blowing people up lately? There was the Breivik incident, which was terrible but also isolated. Against it there's 9/11, 7/7, the Madrid bombings, the Charlie Hebdo massacre, Boko Haram in Nigeria, Taliban in Afghanistan and Pakistan, Al-Qaeda and ISIS.
When was the last time a cartoon lampooning Jesus led to bloodshed in France or the UK?
Yes, there's of course a genuine issue about Islamist terrorism. My response was about the limitations of polling in showing that the general views of terrorists might have wider support. As dugardbardier's examples show more eloquently than mine, loads of people in all sectors of society express nutty views to polls. (Hell, there are even people who say they'll vote Tory!)
Mostly, terrorists need a wider "sea" of sympathisers in which to swim. We need to identify where that sea exists, in relation to Islamist terrorism. I think it would be unfair to say that all socially conservative Muslims form part of that sea, in much the same way that it would be unfair to say that all Irish Republicans formed part of the sea in which the IRA swam.
But the sea is always going to be bigger than just the terrorists and their immediate families.
The "sea" seems to be about 200,000 if the Yougov is correct.
The deep end of the sea maybe. Its obviously a matter of degree. A small minority are terrorists or latent terrorists, probably 5-10,000. A larger number, are the sort of people who want to be, but dont have the balls, or are too old/young, the 125,000 who read the Jihadists house journal would fall into that category, a further rather larger group agree with the aims but not necessarily the means, 36% believe that British modern values are a threat to the Islamic way of life. The rest are probably the sort of generally law abiding, agreeable people we hope they are.
Sunil Prasannan @Sunil_P2 · 14m14 minutes ago They should remake the movie "Footloose", and set it in a town where instead of banning dancing, they have a ban on cartoons! #JeSuisCharlie
"36% believe that British modern values are a threat to the Islamic way of life." Probably true as they tend to be socially very conservative (Ukip-ish).
But the gobby ones may be over-represented. I remember the Raoul Moat fuss - people coming on social media to cheer him on as if he was some sort of freedom fighter. That's the risk with the Paris gunman and what they hope will happen.
Am I the only PBer who thinks a Lab majority is worth backing?
They can get a majority on 33%.
I think UKIP will fade and that will help Cons more than Labour which might prevent a majority. Also the Magic 8-Ball says Scottish situation is unclear and we need to ask again.
On topic.LibDems aren't "left".The Orange bookers in charge are centre-right economic liberals far more sympathetic to Tories.The only game in town for the L/Ds is a Tory government.
The "sea" seems to be about 200,000 if the Yougov is correct.
And many of the non-sympathisers are people that still have very violent and intolerant views. There are a lot of Muslims who believe groups like IS and AQ are illegitimate and don't have a right to give out sentences, but still would support hand-cutting and stoning of shop lifters and apostates as long as it's done by the proper authority.
About 40% of Muslims want full Shariah law in the UK:
That's 1.1 million Muslims. By my back-of-the-envelope estimates, about 60,000 new Muslims are immigrating here each year, so that's about 25,000 new Shariah supporters.
The deep end of the sea maybe. Its obviously a matter of degree.
The muslim community would be no problem at all if it were made aware of the fact that free speech and the rule of secular law in Britain is non-negotiable and always will be. And made aware in jesuitical repeat-after-me form from the age of five.
As it is, we had the ludicrous sight last night on QT of leading politicians teaching the audience about free speech as if it was a bunch of junior school kids for whom the concept was totally alien.
And for many it is totally alien, as Anjem Choudhry shows us. The powers that be have never tried to teach it, because of multiculturalism.
The fault for what is happening lies at the feet of those in power for the last two decades. Political Power. Cultural Power. Administrative power. Legal Power.
Not sure illustrating fuel poverty with a picture of a woman in an incredibly thin top is a good idea. I mean, is it wrong to suggest people who are struggling to heat their homes sufficiently should just put another bloody jumper on? http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-30743471
To one decimal place today's Populus is Lab 33.7, Con 33.3.
So Con again a bit unlucky on the rounding - obviously that is false precision but with today's YouGov also showing a tie it is now looking very close to neck and neck.
Seven polls this week - straight average is Lab lead 1.14.
Seven polls? What's the seventh?
In ELBOW the Lab lead in six polls so far is 1.1% (or of you prefer, 1.3% in simple average - take your pick
Mr. Eagles, the problem with an English manifesto is that it wouldn't include a commitment to either an English Parliament or English votes for English laws.
One of the big creators of this mess is that "race and religion" got lumped in together in the most revered St Tony laws, peace be upon him.
Rowan Atkinson put it well back in 2004:
There was, he said, a fundamental difference between race - already covered by legislation - and religion. "To criticise a person for their race is a manifestly irrational and ridiculous. But to criticise their religion - that is a right. That is a freedom. And a law that attempts to say you can criticise or ridicule ideas, as long as they are not religious ideas, is a very peculiar law indeed.
So another poll with a shrinking Labour lead. December's Lab surge c'est une mirage
I'm struggling to see where David H gets his "Con 30%" figure from. There were 32 polls with field-work end-dates between 1st Dec and Xmas. This is what we get:
So another poll with a shrinking Labour lead. December's Lab surge c'est une mirage
I'm struggling to see where David H gets his "Con 30%" figure from. There were 32 polls with field-work end-dates between 1st Dec and Xmas. This is what we get:
twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/553358370548490240
I think you aggregate all the YouGovs in Elbow, whereas I think David uses only the last few YouGovs of a month and uses the average of those.
So another poll with a shrinking Labour lead. December's Lab surge c'est une mirage
I'm struggling to see where David H gets his "Con 30%" figure from. There were 32 polls with field-work end-dates between 1st Dec and Xmas. This is what we get:
twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/553358370548490240
I think you aggregate all the YouGovs in Elbow, whereas I think David uses only the last few YouGovs of a month and uses the average of those.
Hmmm, each to his own I guess...
Well, just as a comparison, IIRC, the simple Tory average in all 32 polls is also roughly 32%.
It's worth remembering that Parliament only succeeded in watering down the 'Incitement to Religious Hatred' Bill on the strength of a *single* vote. Had it passed in its original form, Christians would've been given strong grounds for banning 'The Life of Brian' and 'The Last Temptation of Christ'.
The fixed parliament rules pose a big problem to any minority government.
Say the Lib Dems and/or SNP hold the balance of power. Should they choose to oppose the minority government, the minority government can not call an election if a confidence vote goes against them. Instead, the opposition can try to form a government, either with a confidenec and supply arrangement or a full blown coalition.
When the major parties realise this they may become less keen on a minority government and more keen on a coalition.
Ukip no of MPs 1,2,3 dutched at 6-1,8-1,8-1 bring a return of 173.91%.I may also have a top-up single bet on 1 at 6-1,Clacton.
What does the 'dutched ' jargon mean?
In gambling, Dutching is sharing the risk of losing across a number or runners by backing more than one selection in a race or event. The process calculates the correct stake to place on each selection so that the return is the same if any of them wins.
The last dutching I did was on Dynaste and Silvinaco Conti in the King George. Should have taken the reverse forecast on that one too, but obviously didn't.
One of the big creators of this mess is that "race and religion" got lumped in together in the most revered St Tony laws, peace be upon him.
Rowan Atkinson put it well back in 2004:
There was, he said, a fundamental difference between race - already covered by legislation - and religion. "To criticise a person for their race is a manifestly irrational and ridiculous. But to criticise their religion - that is a right. That is a freedom. And a law that attempts to say you can criticise or ridicule ideas, as long as they are not religious ideas, is a very peculiar law indeed.
It's not surprising they get lumped together, because most Muslims no more choose their religion than people choose their skin colour. Tony Blair therefore concluded that special protection needed to be extended to incitement to hatred on the grounds of religion, in order to close "loopholes" in the existing legislation that forbade incitement to hatred on the grounds of race. Blair's view was logical - but wrong. It would be better to do away with *all* laws that criminalise something as nebulous as incitement to hatred. Such laws legitimise the argument that people have the right to be "comfortable", and therefore seek the banning of opinions they profoundly disagree with.
Am I the only PBer who thinks a Lab majority is worth backing?
They can get a majority on 33%.
With Scotland as it is ?!
I'm sticking to my Labour minority view.
Even with that, if UKIP end up hitting the Tories disproportionately then the Tories are screwed.
On current polling we're not far off from a 2005 share of the vote for the Cons and Lab which resulted in a Lab majority of 60 odd
The amount of anti-Conservative tactical voting is far below where it was in 2005, and new Conservative MPs have two rounds of incumbency bonus to benefit from.
And, the bottom has fallen out of Scotland for Labour.
A friend of mine, a lefty atheist, mixed race said this to me about the latest terrorism
"If we are going to allow cartoonists to continue to offend Muslims (which I am all in favour of) and expect Muslims to not be offended... then we are going to have to stop whinging about Page 3, homophobia, sexism, racism etc. etc...
You cannot be rabidly anti all these things (as I sometimes am) and then say "Oh chill out Abdul, it's only a bit of fun"
My Dad renounced Islam a long time ago He thinks it's utter nonsense Thinks it's holding his part of the world back and considers believers to be idiots for letting it rule their lives However, when the Danish cartoons came out a few years ago he was shocked and thought it was bang out of order We simply don't get what a big deal this is for Muslims..."
It's worth remembering that Parliament only succeeded in watering down the 'Incitement to Religious Hatred' Bill on the strength of a *single* vote. Had it passed in its original form, Christians would've been given strong grounds for banning 'The Life of Brian' and 'The Last Temptation of Christ'.
Yes indeed. Tony's version didn't require intent, and covered insulting as well as abusive actions as well as those that might stir up religious hatred, which would have been a travesty, in its amended form, its merely a disgrace.
Comments
Sad to see some here arguing that the bounds of free speech should be determined by the preference of murderers.
Such as.....???
http://politicalbookie.com/2015/01/08/bookies-predict-turnout-rise-for-general-election/
Sad reflection of French society that Charlie Hebdo is lauded for its vulgar, offensive and deeply unfunny output whilst such severe restrictions are placed on rightist expression. Of course for 68ers it is free speech for me but not for three. Repeal Loi Gayssot.
Of course historically blasphemy laws existed for good reason.
http://www.unz.com/gnxp/taboos-against-blasphemy-are-normal/
*I think that's the name.
Every lane is an overtaking lane.
I haven't been that scared since I upset some US Airport staff.
http://www.slaters.co.uk/mens-size-guide
(6'1 Inside leg 34"-35")
Personally I would like to see either Douglas Carswell or Steven Woolfe as the next leader. Steven has always impressed me when being interviewed and would in my opinion be a really strong candidate.
And Putin is clearly in the closet.
I mean, look at all those shirtless pictures of him.
He will feel so much better and he might not feck up the Russian economy.
So I'm really trying to help Mother Russia.
I should probably Google before I post, but pb'ers are so good it's sometimes quicker to post the question on a thread. Particularly when you're in and out of meetings at work and on an iPhone!
So Con again a bit unlucky on the rounding - obviously that is false precision but with today's YouGov also showing a tie it is now looking very close to neck and neck.
Seven polls this week - straight average is Lab lead 1.14.
I think some of the "apologist" articles and the what-aboutery is from people who don't really believe some of the drivel they are writing. It's because they are terrified that Ukip will get a poll boost.
But I can't see a big or long-lasting boost at all. Their classification as a major party for the election campaign will be more important.
But I'll do some non-scientific investigations this weekend on their support in the pubs of Vilnius Central (Boston).
Both Carswell and Hannan are correct when they say withdrawalists won't win a referendum until we present a warm open optimistic international perspective on EU withdrawal, with a clear thought through alternative.
40% of votes are in the bag. It's the other 10.01% that aren't, and won't be unless that happens.
IMO the 2010 LibDems fell into three broad categories:
* Loyalists: core lifelong liberals who vote for the party no matter what. They are still LibDem, and will vote.
* Red Liberals: left-wingers who felt New Labour was too centrist and too keen on foreign wars. They are now mostly Labour, though some are Green. They can't wait to vote and are more zealous than the average Labour or Tory voter.
* NOTAs who felt that Tories and Labour were useless. They now mostly feel that LibDems are useless too, so are not sure what to do. UKIP? Abstain? LibDem again faut de mieux? Ponder, ponder.
Sitting LD MPs will get all the loyalists, some of the Red Liberals and maybe some of the NOTAs. Other LibDem candidates will mainly get the loyalists. Yes, there's of course a genuine issue about Islamist terrorism. My response was about the limitations of polling in showing that the general views of terrorists might have wider support. As dugardbardier's examples show more eloquently than mine, loads of people in all sectors of society express nutty views to polls. (Hell, there are even people who say they'll vote Tory!)
Thank you.
Rather more likely in their view is a Lab & LibDem link-up at 13/2 or a Lab & SNP coalition at 14/1.
http://politicalbookie.com/2015/01/09/how-many-seats-will-ukip-win/
Tends to support that 7/1 bet at Hills as being value.
http://politicalbookie.com/2015/01/09/how-many-seats-will-ukip-win/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_content=sports&utm_campaign=politics&hootPostID=a6f1ff3db9b5388c1def7eb4f1a52d4d
I'm not a huge fan of games of pin the tail on the donkey.
What device/browser are you using?
Btw, you asked recently about the reason for my shiny pate. I didn't have time to reply, but I'd have thought you would have known anyway that it is due to the incessant rubbing of the head against the headboard.
What's your own excuse?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/4674675.stm
They also protested outside of a few mosques (that you'll have to take my word for, because they did so outside one of the Mosques in Sheffield a week later, offering the congregation sausage rolls.
They also accused the government of not holding an inquiry into the 7/7 attacks to protect Muslims from scrutiny.
http://www.bnp.org.uk/news/revealed-no-inquiry-77-bombings-order-protect-muslims-scrutiny
A genuine picture involving Bill Cash and Jacob Rees-Mogg
@TheMediaTweets: "Draw me like one of your French girls..." (via @robfuller91)
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B65wJG-CMAA7_fV.jpg
They would only have had 315 seats together. To be honest, if a Con-Lib minority coalition manages to assemble 320+ seats between them, it's probably do-able.
But the sea is always going to be bigger than just the terrorists and their immediate families.
It may be my laptop. I got a new one for Christmas and my old one is acting like a jilted lover!
(It's ok dear, you still mean a lot to me, honest)
Doesn't it make Ladbrokes own 8/11 under 6.5 a bet?
If they're worried about stigmatisation, rather than going "poor us" perhaps they could think about the people who have suffered loss, atrocious and brutal loss, and then about what they need to do to their young men to stop them turning into killers.
There is also a "Je Suis Ahmed" meme developing to honour the memory of the officer gunned down on the street. May he rest in peace. Except that they did kill a woman and threatened the child of another woman. And, as we have seen with IS, they do kill women - and give instructions on how to rape and enslave them as well.
bwin 8/11 under 7.5 looks a great bet too
I have an awesome gaydar.
Edited extra bit: or your hopeless confusion regarding classical history.
They can get a majority on 33%.
They should remake the movie "Footloose", and set it in a town where instead of banning dancing, they have a ban on cartoons! #JeSuisCharlie
But the gobby ones may be over-represented. I remember the Raoul Moat fuss - people coming on social media to cheer him on as if he was some sort of freedom fighter. That's the risk with the Paris gunman and what they hope will happen.
The political interview: 'Ed needs to even things up with an English Manifesto,' says John Denham
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/ed-needs-to-even-things-up-with-an-english-manifesto-9967709.html
www.youtube.com/watch?v=-6RID82Ru-k
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/international/now-may-not-be-the-best-time-to-call-putin-gay-2014022784095
About 40% of Muslims want full Shariah law in the UK:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1510866/Poll-reveals-40pc-of-Muslims-want-sharia-law-in-UK.html
That's 1.1 million Muslims. By my back-of-the-envelope estimates, about 60,000 new Muslims are immigrating here each year, so that's about 25,000 new Shariah supporters.
The muslim community would be no problem at all if it were made aware of the fact that free speech and the rule of secular law in Britain is non-negotiable and always will be. And made aware in jesuitical repeat-after-me form from the age of five.
As it is, we had the ludicrous sight last night on QT of leading politicians teaching the audience about free speech as if it was a bunch of junior school kids for whom the concept was totally alien.
And for many it is totally alien, as Anjem Choudhry shows us. The powers that be have never tried to teach it, because of multiculturalism.
The fault for what is happening lies at the feet of those in power for the last two decades. Political Power. Cultural Power. Administrative power. Legal Power.
F@#k. I'm turning into my dad.
In ELBOW the Lab lead in six polls so far is 1.1% (or of you prefer, 1.3% in simple average - take your pick
I'm sticking to my Labour minority view.
Mr. Anorak, I must agree.
Looks like Denham is bricking it for Southampton Itchen.
Rowan Atkinson put it well back in 2004:
There was, he said, a fundamental difference between race - already covered by legislation - and religion. "To criticise a person for their race is a manifestly irrational and ridiculous. But to criticise their religion - that is a right. That is a freedom. And a law that attempts to say you can criticise or ridicule ideas, as long as they are not religious ideas, is a very peculiar law indeed.
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/553358370548490240
On current polling we're not far off from a 2005 share of the vote for the Cons and Lab which resulted in a Lab majority of 60 odd
My heart is Itchen for Rowena.
Well, just as a comparison, IIRC, the simple Tory average in all 32 polls is also roughly 32%.
EDIT - wait, let me check
You get an extra seat and better odds
Say the Lib Dems and/or SNP hold the balance of power. Should they choose to oppose the minority government, the minority government can not call an election if a confidence vote goes against them. Instead, the opposition can try to form a government, either with a confidenec and supply arrangement or a full blown coalition.
When the major parties realise this they may become less keen on a minority government and more keen on a coalition.
The last dutching I did was on Dynaste and Silvinaco Conti in the King George. Should have taken the reverse forecast on that one too, but obviously didn't.
And, the bottom has fallen out of Scotland for Labour.
I know but he clearly is anxious the seat may be lost.
"If we are going to allow cartoonists to continue to offend Muslims
(which I am all in favour of)
and expect Muslims to not be offended...
then we are going to have to stop whinging about Page 3, homophobia, sexism, racism etc. etc...
You cannot be rabidly anti all these things (as I sometimes am) and then say "Oh chill out Abdul, it's only a bit of fun"
My Dad renounced Islam a long time ago
He thinks it's utter nonsense
Thinks it's holding his part of the world back and considers believers to be idiots for letting it rule their lives
However, when the Danish cartoons came out a few years ago he was shocked and thought it was bang out of order
We simply don't get what a big deal this is for Muslims..."
So long as protections for minorities are enshrined in law, who gives a f8ck what people moan about?