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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The PB December Polling average: the Left rampant

Christmas shopping, parties and other seasonal distractions may be nothing but credit card bills now but in and amongst all that fun – forced or genuine – a rather interesting swing was taking place in the polls.
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A level you would be happy to bet it wouldn't reach at Even Money for £250
Also quite possible that Milliband will "grudgingly" agree to a head to head debate with Cameron, thereby pushing out all bar Lab and Con, like the good old days. Indeed putting my tinfoil hat on, I have suspicion that may have been the agreed stitch up all along...
1. At least 2 MPs
2. Standing in at least 600 constituencies
3. And to have either gotten more than 15% in the previous election or to have averaged above 15% in the polls in the six months prior to the election
This would mean the LibDems would be included this time, but might very well not be next time (and UKIP might also fall back between now and 2020). But it does give very clear guidelines for who is a 'major party', and does not excessively penalise parties who's success is recent.
@jimmurphymp: Enjoyed Question Time tonight. Diane Abbott on 'This Week' with Andrew Neil now.
It's good night from me, John Murphy.
I should say a level you think it wont better
Think about it and we can arrange a fun bet
I also don't buy your first condition. It just seems pretty arbitrary, and also would mean a new party gets unfairly kicked out. For example, if all the parliamentary parties got caught in a dirty hands style corruption scandal, and a new clean people's party emerged to fight the election, stormed into the polling lead, it would seem wrong to keep them out.
Something like averaging above 5% in the last three months, plus contesting a majority of the constituencies, could work.
http://leftfootforward.org/2015/01/charlie-hebdo-dismantling-nine-mistaken-assumptions-about-the-paris-atrocities/
Fact is you can define major and minor in many ways, and the impact of regionally focused parties in the UK affects things even further in that score, so no definition will be without some twisty logic of free from any criticism.
But on the basis that a major party should be able to demonstrate electoral support so they are not just a flash in the pan sort of party with significant polling and results, have nationwide intent - even if realistically no-one but Con and Lab have any chance of winning hundred of seats and all over the country, and even then Con cannot claim that much and even Labour are struggling in some areas - and of course the final proof of entrance into the mainstream, representation in Parliament.
Under such an idea the Greens and UKIP would both not have been in last time, as the Green showed no national intent or widespread support despite having an MP. UKIP had the first two to some extent but no MP. Now they have all three. The SNP and PC have the first and last, but not the middle one.
It's not perfect, granted, and Northern Ireland gets in the way of the whole nationwide intent part, but rcs's suggestion I think makes it difficult to truly break out as a major national party, but not unfairly so. It should not be easy to get a seat at the big table (even if I fine the electoral system itself making it harder than it should be), and UKIP have proven with hard work and luck you can do it to the point hardly anyone could complain about it. The Greens have a different strategy, and that was their choice, they can always adopt a wider focused approach if they want.
1. Don't unfairly penalise new parties
2. Don't institutionalise two party politics
3. But also keep it manageable - if you're not polling more than (say) a third of the first placed candidate, you shouldn't be there, because you're not realistically in with a chance of forming the government. (That being said, given we may be in a world where there will be more coalitions, perhaps it's only fair that all parties that have a reasonable chance of securing 10 or more seats should be there.)
Or maybe we should simply privatise the Beeb, and allow the broadcasters - as private entities beholden to their customers and their owners - choose who to invite.
PB Tories are always right.
Plus Roger saying it was a brilliant strategy by Ed confirmed it.
wait, that's not right.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4xAeSkdtaeI
September = 38 polls with a total weighted sample of 51,029
Lab 35.7
Con 31.5
UKIP 15.2
LD 7.6
October = 45 polls with a total weighted sample of 59,394
Lab 33.8
Con 32.0
UKIP 16.1
LD 7.7
November = 44 polls with a total weighted sample of 56,434
Lab 33.3
Con 31.8
UKIP 16.1
LD 7.6
December = 32 polls with a total weighted sample of 40,490
Lab 33.7
Con 32.0
UKIP 15.5
LD 7.4
So far (and it's early day's of course) it doesn't look as though that's been maintained into January.
Let's wait and see.
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/550716028293251073
Taxi for Clegg. Taxi for Vince. Taxi for Danny, etc... ?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-30722098
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/553358370548490240
Geographical relevance I get, but thread content?
This is truly bizarre. The thread header ad has now changed to an ad for this -
http://www.instantcheckmate.com/
2010 was probably an exception because things were so bad for Brown that he thought he hadn't got anything to lose.
'mac' - The new editors at Charlie Hebdo: - http://tinyurl.com/ml2fjz5
Have the 88,000 caught up with the 2 yet?
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/01/09/conservatives-and-labour-tied/
Sigolene Vinson told Radio France International how one of the killers pointed a gun at her, but then had a change of heart.
She told the station that he said "I'm not killing you because you are a woman and we don't kill women, but you have to convert to Islam, read the Koran and wear a veil."
i) ministrable (rules out the Greens, SNP, DUP, UKIP, Respect, Loonies, etc), and;
ii) a national party (rules out the SNP, DUP, etc)
@bbckamal: Circle, 1st private company to takeover an NHS hospital, has announced it is pulling out of Hinchingbrooke as "it is no longer sustainable"
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-30728158
Islam is badly, badly in need of a Reformation. It's own Martin Luther .
If the NHS wants to continue to use these private companies then there needs to be a reform of the Tariff so that the work is viable.
So the NHS has to pick up the loss making hospital in Hinchingbrooke again.
http://www.breitbart.com/london/2015/01/08/how-dare-david-cameron-attack-nigel-farage-for-telling-the-truth-about-multiculturalism/
True, a Unionist (blanket name for a Tory) was in government when Ulster "was as English as Kent." But now, when it's in a semi-detached limbo, United Ireland a neutral option, 30 years of bloodshed to get to this point of fragile peace, the Shinners won't countenance being in coalition with the Brits (i.e. the DUP if the are co-opted into a UK government) - never, never, never....
I may be wrong, but I imagine there's a difference between British Asians of Pakistani and of Indian origin in their average attitude to civic responsibility.
Mr. Patrick, we should (collectively, not blaming you) change to saying Asian British, not British Asians. British Asians makes the Asian aspect the name and the British bit an adjective. The core of identity should be Britain (as in African American).
Mr. Indigo, was it the former Archdruid of Canterbury when he called for Sharia Law on the radio and then tried to use Jedi mind tricks to persuade us he hadn't?
Mr Dancer: No is was our current First Lord of the Treasury.
What an arse.
5 miles NE of CDG Airport.
ICM
Dec 2012 40% May 2013 34% (-6)
Dec 2013 37% May 2014 31% (-6)
Dec 2014 33% May 2015 ....
Ipsos
Dec 2012 44% May 2013 34% (-10)
Dec 2013 37% May 2014 34% (-3)
Dec 2014 32% May 2015 ....
December=peak dark nights, let's talk NHS
May = spring, election campaigns and post budget
http://www1.skysports.com/f1/news/12479/9634294/mclaren-honda-engine-fears-for-jenson-button-and-fernando-alonso-in-2015
On the plus side, from a betting perspective, this assists two of my bets (on Mercedes) and doesn't affect, much, the tiny sum I put on Alonso to win in Australia, the first race.
However, from a fairness/sporting perspective, the rule is completely indefensible and shoddy. I hope it gets overturned. McLaren/Honda seem to be hoping for a compromise.
RE: Debates: I think we should give any significant up and coming parties at least one chance at a debate, as long as they are polling >5% for at least the last 2-3 months. Thus the 5, 3, 2 scenario for the 3 debates would allow for that. As both PC and SNP do not have GB candidates then they have to be excluded, as do NI parties..
It seems to be around the same time he was hugging hoodies and huskies.
What excuses will Ofcom and the massed ranks of self serving unionists find to exclude the SNP from the next series of debates in a second GE2015 or in say, GE2020?
Come on, I am sure many of you can come up with some "democratic" reason :-)
Thanks for your comment-good to see that rationality is not dead :-)