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If this becomes a long term trend then Tory MPs will become antsy about Badenoch

SystemSystem Posts: 12,360
edited February 18 in General
imageIf this becomes a long term trend then Tory MPs will become antsy about Badenoch politicalbetting.com

We tend to focus on individual polls which look interesting – but much more significant and easily missed – I think this is the first week when *every* poll released (from across 7 pollsters) has had the Reform ahead of the Conservatives.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,448
    edited January 31
    First, unlike Kemi

    Drat, second unlike Kemi either...
  • Cookie said:

    Unfortunately for the Tories, it's not obvious that any Tory MP, real or fantasy, would be doing any better.

    Jeremy Hunt.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,448
    edited January 31
    Test
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,930
    Curious thing about the last couple of days: Trump seems to have returned to being the shambolic and grimly comic character of part I, rather than the super-prepared dictator in waiting we were promised this time round. Let's hope it continues.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,448

    Jeremy Hunt.
    One of the few who fought off the yellow peril, though we might get him next time.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,639

    Jeremy Hunt.
    In reply to which, I stand by my earlier point.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,089

    Curious thing about the last couple of days: Trump seems to have returned to being the shambolic and grimly comic character of part I, rather than the super-prepared dictator in waiting we were promised this time round. Let's hope it continues.

    From previous thread

    This time around Donny is the figurehead, Elon is the guy doing all the shit behind the scenes

    He sacked the head of the FAA

    The tragic events of yesterday are not his first crash...
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,261

    Curious thing about the last couple of days: Trump seems to have returned to being the shambolic and grimly comic character of part I, rather than the super-prepared dictator in waiting we were promised this time round. Let's hope it continues.

    78 year old man doesn't change shocker.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,639
    biggles said:

    And the Reform Levelling Up policy gets announced in 3, 2, 1….
    If Reform can get a hearing from the northern urban public sector middle class then the political world really will have shattered. Tbh, I'm still quite shocked at hearing voices openly critical of Laboir from that demographic.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,163

    Curious thing about the last couple of days: Trump seems to have returned to being the shambolic and grimly comic character of part I, rather than the super-prepared dictator in waiting we were promised this time round. Let's hope it continues.

    Did you see his swimming comment?

    https://x.com/townhallcom/status/1885081609604370513
  • As mentioned late on the last post, just what is the Labour growth all about it? This is dreadful.

    Financial Times
    @FT
    Breaking news: AstraZeneca is pulling out of its plans to build a £450mn UK vaccine manufacturing plant after months of wrangling with British officials about state investment for the Merseyside project. https://on.ft.com/4aWYs37
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,686

    As mentioned late on the last post, just what is the Labour growth all about it? This is dreadful.

    Financial Times
    @FT
    Breaking news: AstraZeneca is pulling out of its plans to build a £450mn UK vaccine manufacturing plant after months of wrangling with British officials about state investment for the Merseyside project. https://on.ft.com/4aWYs37

    Madness.
  • As mentioned late on the last post, just what is the Labour growth all about it? This is dreadful.

    Financial Times
    @FT
    Breaking news: AstraZeneca is pulling out of its plans to build a £450mn UK vaccine manufacturing plant after months of wrangling with British officials about state investment for the Merseyside project. https://on.ft.com/4aWYs37

    Jeremy Hunt
    @Jeremy_Hunt
    This is an absolute tragedy. The government have reneged on a deal I negotiated in 2023 and the UK has lost a factory and many jobs in one of our most promising industries.
    @RachelReevesMP
    should pick up the phone to Sir Pascal Soriot: if she believes in growth short term penny pinching cannot be the answer
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,244
    The Tories essential problem is that they’re still seen as continuity for whatever the hell it was that got kicked out at the last election.

    However crap Labour turn out to be isn’t going to change that much, and Reform present an alternative on the right, uncontaminated by those memories. They might insufficiently palatable to command a majority in a general election (though that’s still possible thanks to the bizarre operation of FPTP), but as the polls show, they could quite readily kill the Tories.

    Who best changes that ?
    I’m not sure, but I’m pretty certain it isn’t Badenoch.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,724
    Cookie said:

    If Reform can get a hearing from the northern urban public sector middle class then the political world really will have shattered. Tbh, I'm still quite shocked at hearing voices openly critical of Laboir from that demographic.
    To do something incredible, Farage needs three or four competent senior voices besides his own. And they need to be credible folk.

    If he can control his ego and play nicely, he really could do it.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,724

    As mentioned late on the last post, just what is the Labour growth all about it? This is dreadful.

    Financial Times
    @FT
    Breaking news: AstraZeneca is pulling out of its plans to build a £450mn UK vaccine manufacturing plant after months of wrangling with British officials about state investment for the Merseyside project. https://on.ft.com/4aWYs37

    Pfft. What do we need domestic vaccine manufacturing capacity for? When have we ever wished we had some?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,244

    Did you see his swimming comment?

    https://x.com/townhallcom/status/1885081609604370513
    Probably still scared of sharks.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,859
    biggles said:

    Pfft. What do we need domestic vaccine manufacturing capacity for? When have we ever wished we had some?
    It's all the needle they've been getting.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,244
    On a lighter note, this is probably as good a way as any to chart progress in Syria.

    Syria’s New Comedy Scene
    The Styria collective in Damascus is testing the boundaries of free speech
    https://newlinesmag.com/spotlight/syrias-new-comedy-scene/
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,292
    edited January 31
    I disagree with TSE, Badenoch has a strong mandate for starters having won the Conservative MPs vote as well as the Conservative members vote, which was not the case for Truss or IDS who both had lost the MPs vote in their leadership contests and were effectively removed by Tory MPs. Second the Electoral Calculus forecast indeed does have Reform on 24% ahead of the Tories on 22.5% in its latest poll average but it also has the Tories still ahead of Reform on seats with 138 to 82 for Reform as BOTH the Conservatives and Reform are making seat gains from Labour who are down to just 278 MPs on the forecast.

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

    As the Conservatives have 0 MPs in Wales and have never been in power in the Senedd or Holyrood I doubt the results of next year's Holyrood elections make much difference, though PR ensures the Tories have a solid presence still in both
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,301

    As mentioned late on the last post, just what is the Labour growth all about it? This is dreadful.

    Financial Times
    @FT
    Breaking news: AstraZeneca is pulling out of its plans to build a £450mn UK vaccine manufacturing plant after months of wrangling with British officials about state investment for the Merseyside project. https://on.ft.com/4aWYs37

    Given it was supposed to be in Liverpool you can't even argue that this is punishment for being a non-labour or pro-Brexit voting population. It's just rank apathy towards anyone not in London.

    And the target location was very close to Runcorn...
  • biggles said:

    Pfft. What do we need domestic vaccine manufacturing capacity for? When have we ever wished we had some?
    It was only on Wednesday she was touting them in her speech as one of the companies bringing growth and investment. Useless.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,196
    Foss said:

    Given it was supposed to be in Liverpool you can't even argue that this is punishment for being a non-labour or pro-Brexit voting population. It's just rank apathy towards anyone not in London.

    And the target location was very close to Runcorn...
    Aldlerley Edge isn't in London either...
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,613
    edited January 31

    It was only on Wednesday she was touting them in her speech as one of the companies bringing growth and investment. Useless.
    Mind, the Tories have an awful record on actually *closing down* vaccine manufacturing facilities.

    Which is why we need them in the first place ...

    Labour can't be said to have actually done that, closing down. But they're not helping.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,163
    12 CDU/CSU MPs didn't vote for the bill (out of 196)
    23 FDP MPs didn't vote for the bill (out of 90)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,292

    Jeremy Hunt.
    He might squeeze the LDs a bit more and gain a couple extra from Labour than Kemi but would likely leak further to Reform than Kemi is
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,212
    I'm not sure what passes for a Tory MP these days really has the basic brain power to get antsy, after CCHQ's candidate policy (closely resembling American ATC's hiring policy) has been in action for a decade or too.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,729
    Hypothetical conversation.
    AZ: we have you over a barrel on big investment amid high interest rates so we're speccing down the deal, you still give us the same cash or you look like idiots.
    Treasury: no. AZ: OK.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,644
    biggles said:

    Pfft. What do we need domestic vaccine manufacturing capacity for? When have we ever wished we had some?
    Vaccines, food, oil, who needs domestic production?
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,724
    EPG said:

    Hypothetical conversation.
    AZ: we have you over a barrel on big investment amid high interest rates so we're speccing down the deal, you still give us the same cash or you look like idiots.
    Treasury: no. AZ: OK.

    The flaw in that is the assumption that the average Treasury official has any understanding of whether a commercial deal is good or not. I have met the newer ones, and they do not.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,724
    ydoethur said:

    It's all the needle they've been getting.
    There’s no need to try and inject humour into every thread.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 850

    I'm not sure what passes for a Tory MP these days really has the basic brain power to get antsy, after CCHQ's candidate policy (closely resembling American ATC's hiring policy) has been in action for a decade or too.

    I don't think they were anything like as rigorous as ATC, Gullis made it to under secretary of state.
    While it's clearly not great that they're behind Reform, except for those of you who secretly desire a more racist right wing party, they'll still win far more seats than Reform due to vote concentration.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,476
    biggles said:

    There’s no need to try and inject humour into every thread.
    RFK : What’s your poison?

    {Editor : that’s quite enough}
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,292
    edited January 31
    kamski said:

    12 CDU/CSU MPs didn't vote for the bill (out of 196)
    23 FDP MPs didn't vote for the bill (out of 90)

    So it was mainly the FDP vote which meant it failed, Merz will take some comfort over 90% of CDU/CSU MPs backed his bill though, especially as the FDP may well lose all their seats next month while the Union comes top
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,163
    https://x.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1885351504027980261

    Trump approval poll

    🟢 Approve 49% (+8)
    🟤 Disapprove 41%

    🟤 Last Biden approval - 37% (-14)

    Emerson #A - 1000 RV - 1/28


    https://x.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1885381097917231433

    52% of Americans think the country is heading in the right direction, up from 39% in November (Emerson)
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,929

    The same Jeremy Hunt who twice failed to win the leadership, who went out in the first round last time, and who would have his unfunded everything thrown in his face at 10 past 12 each Wednesday, or some other Jeremy Hunt?
    Well, his retention of his seat in Surrey was pretty impressive. Looked a definite goner but he put money and effort into the contest. He's obviously a decent bloke - not a grifter or chancer - and I think people can see that. Also not mad (which helps).
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,292
    edited January 31
    Trump's tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imports likely to come into effect tomorrow. Trump has also confirmed he is in the process of implementing his trade sanctions on China which may well now include tariffs on Chinese oil imports.

    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/live-blog/trump-administration-tariff-canada-mexico-dei-plane-crash-live-updates-rcna190078
  • eekeek Posts: 29,399
    biggles said:

    The flaw in that is the assumption that the average Treasury official has any understanding of whether a commercial deal is good or not. I have met the newer ones, and they do not.
    I’ve met ones rapidly approaching retirement - they equally can’t work out whether something is good or bad.

    Unless it’s close to where they live (London) and makes their life better - in which case it’s essential that it’s implemented.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,929
    Leading story in The Grauniad.

    York Minster in trouble.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025/jan/31/york-minster-protest-plague-of-angels-concert

    The 800-year-old cathedral is facing an uprising from members of its congregation after announcing a “shocking and deeply inappropriate” concert by the English rockers Plague of Angels.

    Churchgoers have expressed outrage that two of the band’s members had previously performed with an extreme-metal group that sold what Rolling Stone described as “the most controversial shirt in rock history”. The T-shirt featured a topless nun masturbating and the words “Jesus is a c*nt"
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 3,204
    edited January 31
    Here's a stray thought: Suppose that Starmer and Reeves suspect that to revive the UK economy, they need to copy some of what more successful American states have been doing in recent decades, for example, South Carolina and Kentucky (home of the world's largest Toyota factory).

    But that would require the Labour leaders to admit that much of what they have believed about modern economies all their lives is wrong. If that stray thought contains some truth, one can understand why they find it hard to come to any decisions.
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,301

    Leading story in The Grauniad.

    York Minster in trouble.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025/jan/31/york-minster-protest-plague-of-angels-concert

    The 800-year-old cathedral is facing an uprising from members of its congregation after announcing a “shocking and deeply inappropriate” concert by the English rockers Plague of Angels.

    Churchgoers have expressed outrage that two of the band’s members had previously performed with an extreme-metal group that sold what Rolling Stone described as “the most controversial shirt in rock history”. The T-shirt featured a topless nun masturbating and the words “Jesus is a c*nt"

    It's not on fire. So it's not the worst thing that's happened within living memory.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,320
    Foss said:

    Given it was supposed to be in Liverpool you can't even argue that this is punishment for being a non-labour or pro-Brexit voting population. It's just rank apathy towards anyone not in London.

    And the target location was very close to Runcorn...
    I recently had one of my investments completely fail. One of the reasons for their failure was (allegedly) the absence of good employees available in the Liverpool area.

    I don't believe this is the truth, but I'm reasonably convinced that there's a grain or two in there.

    Parts of the UK can do quite a bit as to their relative success/failure.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,047

    Jeremy Hunt
    @Jeremy_Hunt
    This is an absolute tragedy. The government have reneged on a deal I negotiated in 2023 and the UK has lost a factory and many jobs in one of our most promising industries.
    @RachelReevesMP
    should pick up the phone to Sir Pascal Soriot: if she believes in growth short term penny pinching cannot be the answer
    Jeremy Hunt knows how to do opposition.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,292

    Leading story in The Grauniad.

    York Minster in trouble.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025/jan/31/york-minster-protest-plague-of-angels-concert

    The 800-year-old cathedral is facing an uprising from members of its congregation after announcing a “shocking and deeply inappropriate” concert by the English rockers Plague of Angels.

    Churchgoers have expressed outrage that two of the band’s members had previously performed with an extreme-metal group that sold what Rolling Stone described as “the most controversial shirt in rock history”. The T-shirt featured a topless nun masturbating and the words “Jesus is a c*nt"

    Seems a separate band anyway 'Mark Mynett, a Plague of Angels guitarist, said he was sorry for the “confusion and concern” caused by the band’s association with Cradle of Filth, the heavy metal outfit behind the “Jesus is a cunt” T-shirt.

    He said Plague of Angels was “its own entity, distinct” from that band, and added: “We apologise for this and can confirm that the two band members deeply regret their involvement with Cradle of Filth.”'
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,047

    Leading story in The Grauniad.

    York Minster in trouble.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025/jan/31/york-minster-protest-plague-of-angels-concert

    The 800-year-old cathedral is facing an uprising from members of its congregation after announcing a “shocking and deeply inappropriate” concert by the English rockers Plague of Angels.

    Churchgoers have expressed outrage that two of the band’s members had previously performed with an extreme-metal group that sold what Rolling Stone described as “the most controversial shirt in rock history”. The T-shirt featured a topless nun masturbating and the words “Jesus is a c*nt"

    The clergy probably enjoyed that.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,196

    Leading story in The Grauniad.

    York Minster in trouble.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025/jan/31/york-minster-protest-plague-of-angels-concert

    The 800-year-old cathedral is facing an uprising from members of its congregation after announcing a “shocking and deeply inappropriate” concert by the English rockers Plague of Angels.

    Churchgoers have expressed outrage that two of the band’s members had previously performed with an extreme-metal group that sold what Rolling Stone described as “the most controversial shirt in rock history”. The T-shirt featured a topless nun masturbating and the words “Jesus is a c*nt"

    A dirty habit?
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,261

    Leading story in The Grauniad.

    York Minster in trouble.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025/jan/31/york-minster-protest-plague-of-angels-concert

    The 800-year-old cathedral is facing an uprising from members of its congregation after announcing a “shocking and deeply inappropriate” concert by the English rockers Plague of Angels.

    Churchgoers have expressed outrage that two of the band’s members had previously performed with an extreme-metal group that sold what Rolling Stone described as “the most controversial shirt in rock history”. The T-shirt featured a topless nun masturbating and the words “Jesus is a c*nt"

    "the two band members deeply regret their involvement with Cradle of Filth"
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,320

    Here's a stray thought: Suppose that Starmer and Reeves suspect that to revive the UK economy, they need to copy some of what more successful American states have been doing in recent decades, for example, South Carolina and Kentucky (home of the world's largest Toyota factory).

    But that would require the Labour leaders to admit that much of what they have believed about modern economies all their lives is wrong. If that stray thought contains some truth, one can understand why they find it hard to come to any decisions.

    They've virtually said that anyway. Their economic policy is pretty centrist, and if only they took the sensible steps such as reducing the size of the state, reducing union power, ... etc. Well then they and we would be fine. There used to be a party like that, but I forget their name now.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,644

    Well, his retention of his seat in Surrey was pretty impressive. Looked a definite goner but he put money and effort into the contest. He's obviously a decent bloke - not a grifter or chancer - and I think people can see that. Also not mad (which helps).
    The Tories' succession problem is they have no-one obviously better than Kemi.

    Labour's is that their only effective minister so far is Ed Miliband who has already been found wanting at the highest level.

  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,724

    Jeremy Hunt knows how to do opposition.
    If only he had put more thought into how to do Government.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,644

    Leading story in The Grauniad.

    York Minster in trouble.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025/jan/31/york-minster-protest-plague-of-angels-concert

    The 800-year-old cathedral is facing an uprising from members of its congregation after announcing a “shocking and deeply inappropriate” concert by the English rockers Plague of Angels.

    Churchgoers have expressed outrage that two of the band’s members had previously performed with an extreme-metal group that sold what Rolling Stone described as “the most controversial shirt in rock history”. The T-shirt featured a topless nun masturbating and the words “Jesus is a c*nt"

    I was there when the Stranglers were stopped mid-set by the Conservative GLC (Greater London Council) because Hugo Cornwell's teeshirt had a Ford-type logo that did not say Truck.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,062
    First leader after an enormous defeat is not an easy job in fairness. But if people go for the gig they cannot expect a great deal of sympathy if they struggle.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,062
    biggles said:

    If only he had put more thought into how to do Government.
    Much more difficult task.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,005

    Well, his retention of his seat in Surrey was pretty impressive. Looked a definite goner but he put money and effort into the contest. He's obviously a decent bloke - not a grifter or chancer - and I think people can see that. Also not mad (which helps).
    Yes he would be a much better leader and would do better in elections. BUT he won't get the votes of Tory members, they want to be Reform Lite.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,062

    Yes he would be a much better leader and would do better in elections. BUT he won't get the votes of Tory members, they want to be Reform Lite.
    They may want to be Reform Heavy, but residual brand loyalty tells them they should only go Lite.

    It is pretty interesting really, as I do know some Tories who despise Reform, whilst there are others who seem to have no issues with them at all, so some spend their time worried and angry about Reform, and the others wanting to make friends with them.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,004
    edited January 31

    "the two band members deeply regret their involvement with Cradle of Filth"
    Bit of an odd thing to apologise for tbh. When there's actual things the clergy of the diocese of York probably needs to apologise for.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,060

    Yes he would be a much better leader and would do better in elections. BUT he won't get the votes of Tory members, they want to be Reform Lite.
    But there's zero milage in being Reform Lite. If anything, it endorses and strengthens the case for the real thing.

    See also: today's hoohhah in Germany.

    Are there any examples of the mainstream right defeating a hard right party that has properly got off the ground? Boris in 2019 looked like it might have been one, but that looks a lot less convincing now.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,724

    But there's zero milage in being Reform Lite. If anything, it endorses and strengthens the case for the real thing.

    See also: today's hoohhah in Germany.

    Are there any examples of the mainstream right defeating a hard right party that has properly got off the ground? Boris in 2019 looked like it might have been one, but that looks a lot less convincing now.
    I think it took a number of Black Swans to reverse the blow Boris dealt.

    I would also argue that what Cameron was selling pre-2010 (but not what he delivered) stopped a drift to the right.

    See also the importing of the National Liberals way back when.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,304
    kamski said:

    So Trump has 2nd worst approval ratings ever for a president at this point in a presidency (worst ever was Trump 8 years ago).
    He sorely needs more diversity in his team. They're almost all mad or bad.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,968
    Didn’t we get an awful lot of posts earlier in year, once Labour were in power the Conservatives would soon be ahead in the polling again? Reform seem to be mopping up discontent in Starmer and Labour, not the Conservatives.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,585
    HY's RefCon Party polling mid to high forties.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,320

    Didn’t we get an awful lot of posts earlier in year, once Labour were in power the Conservatives would soon be ahead in the polling again? Reform seem to be mopping up discontent in Starmer and Labour, not the Conservatives.

    I'm not sure that that's true. Labour making a mess - yes. Tories on the rise - very much less so.

    Any Tory, or ex-Tory like me, can't have failed to see the political wasteland as it was. Mostly as it still is.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,212
    kle4 said:

    First leader after an enormous defeat is not an easy job in fairness. But if people go for the gig they cannot expect a great deal of sympathy if they struggle.

    Yes. I’d say the Tories’ problems are about 25% down to Kemi not inspiring, and 75% their general reputation.

    It’s impossible to overstate just quite how crap a position the Tories find themselves in, deservedly in most cases.
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,919

    https://x.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1885351504027980261

    Trump approval poll

    🟢 Approve 49% (+8)
    🟤 Disapprove 41%

    🟤 Last Biden approval - 37% (-14)

    Emerson #A - 1000 RV - 1/28


    https://x.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1885381097917231433

    52% of Americans think the country is heading in the right direction, up from 39% in November (Emerson)

    That will trigger some of the anti trump obsessives 😂
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,320
    DavidL said:

    I am really appalled. It is not a party political point. I would have been equally disgusted if the previous government had let such an opportunity slip through their fingers. Reeves has to try and recover this and if that involves removing a few heads in the Treasury that is what she must do. This is an industry that we are good at, that shone during Covid, that has a real future, that plays to the strength of our University sector (as we again saw in Covid).
    She needs to act and act now.
    If it were a really exciting investment in an area where we have lots of available and talented staff then AZN wouldn't have pulled out. State investment in such things is mostly misguided. (Things like Nuclear reactors may be different)
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,463
    edited January 31

    Didn’t we get an awful lot of posts earlier in year, once Labour were in power the Conservatives would soon be ahead in the polling again? Reform seem to be mopping up discontent in Starmer and Labour, not the Conservatives.

    This does feel very similar to the situation in 1980 and 81 with the rising SDP. Obviously a lot else was different back then, and the government was unpopular for harsh economic shock therapy rather than uninspiring mediocrity, but the third party dynamic feels the same.

    Feels like the Tories will go further right again with their next leader, in reaction. That’s The Hague-IDS and Miliband-Corbyn pattern. God knows whether they’ll ever decide to come back centrewards.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,074
    Scott_xP said:

    From previous thread

    This time around Donny is the figurehead, Elon is the guy doing all the shit behind the scenes

    He sacked the head of the FAA

    The tragic events of yesterday are not his first crash...
    And it's getting more sinister...

    Elon Musk’s DOGE Wants Access to the Treasury’s Payment Systems: Report
    A senior Treasury official is set to resign after Musk’s allies at DOGE repeatedly demanded access to sensitive government payment systems

    https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/elon-musk-doge-treasury-payment-systems-report-1235252444/
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,463
    DavidL said:

    I am really appalled. It is not a party political point. I would have been equally disgusted if the previous government had let such an opportunity slip through their fingers. Reeves has to try and recover this and if that involves removing a few heads in the Treasury that is what she must do. This is an industry that we are good at, that shone during Covid, that has a real future, that plays to the strength of our University sector (as we again saw in Covid).
    She needs to act and act now.
    Not the only vaccine manufacturer that’s turned away from building in Merseyside because government grants weren’t sufficient, sadly. Another made the same decision last year. We’re a bit unserious on this industrial strategy, under both parties.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,463
    Omnium said:

    If it were a really exciting investment in an area where we have lots of available and talented staff then AZN wouldn't have pulled out. State investment in such things is mostly misguided. (Things like Nuclear reactors may be different)
    Not necessarily the case with vaccines. The money on offer in other countries (notably the US but also places like France or Australia) is huge and makes a big difference.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,062
    kamski said:

    So Trump has 2nd worst approval ratings ever for a president at this point in a presidency (worst ever was Trump 8 years ago).
    So he's gotten better?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100
    edited January 31
    Personally, my hunch is that the Tories already need to roll the dice on Badenoch. Simply not a vote winner and they already start with a massive disadvantage. They can’t afford to carry the dead weight Doesn’t seem to have the will or political capital to do the hard graft to renew the party either.

    So why wait and delay the inevitable?

    She can do a William Hague and come back later.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,415

    As mentioned late on the last post, just what is the Labour growth all about it? This is dreadful.

    Financial Times
    @FT
    Breaking news: AstraZeneca is pulling out of its plans to build a £450mn UK vaccine manufacturing plant after months of wrangling with British officials about state investment for the Merseyside project. https://on.ft.com/4aWYs37

    Merseyside. Too farc from London to matter to Starmer.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100
    kle4 said:

    So he's gotten better?
    Expectations are lower.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,244
    DavidL said:

    I am really appalled. It is not a party political point. I would have been equally disgusted if the previous government had let such an opportunity slip through their fingers. Reeves has to try and recover this and if that involves removing a few heads in the Treasury that is what she must do. This is an industry that we are good at, that shone during Covid, that has a real future, that plays to the strength of our University sector (as we again saw in Covid).
    She needs to act and act now.
    It’s not the first move in the downgrading of our pharmaceutical industry.

    If we’re serious about growth, we need to reverse that.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,163
    Cookie said:

    If Reform can get a hearing from the northern urban public sector middle class then the political world really will have shattered. Tbh, I'm still quite shocked at hearing voices openly critical of Laboir from that demographic.
    @Cookie's vignettes about northern urban public sector middle class voters are the most important thing that's been posted on here in recent months. Labour have a lot further to fall.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,686

    Merseyside. Too farc from London to matter to Starmer.
    "shadow business secretary Andrew Griffiths said: "There's no vaccine for incompetence."

    BBC news

    Nice one. :lol:

    Sounds like the difference was ≈ £40m

    FFS.


  • FT has the figures on the Speke plant.

    Conservatives had offered a grant of £70m towards the £450m cost of the new plant (15.5% of construction cost) as well as £20m of national R&D contracts for the company.
    Labour offered £40m towards the construction of the plant (8.9% of build cost).

    The company certainly isnt short of money, its investing $3.5bn in the US, $1.5bn in Singapore and $560m in Canada production facilities and its just chasing grants, for example a $300m plant in Rockville to research stem cells that would employ 150 people is receiving $100m in state grants.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,163
    kle4 said:

    So he's gotten better?
    No. People have got stupider.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,686
    TimS said:

    Not necessarily the case with vaccines. The money on offer in other countries (notably the US but also places like France or Australia) is huge and makes a big difference.
    The US is offering tax $ to vaccine manufacturers?

    Presumably RFK will stop that the minute he gets into office!!!!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,062
    Nigelb said:

    If we’re serious about growth
    I don't think we are to be honest.

    I think we're getting closer, it feels like some real thoughts are occurring on it now rather than just as a buzzword, but there's no consensus about what is needed, or even that growth should be the primary goal. Until that happens, we probably won't get it as one party will try, get punished, then the next will reverse/repositon, and lose any benefit.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,399

    "shadow business secretary Andrew Griffiths said: "There's no vaccine for incompetence."

    BBC news

    Nice one. :lol:

    Sounds like the difference was ≈ £40m

    FFS.


    For how many jobs?

    And then divide the money per job estimate the length the factory will be open for and see if it still makes sense.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,463

    "shadow business secretary Andrew Griffiths said: "There's no vaccine for incompetence."

    BBC news

    Nice one. :lol:

    Sounds like the difference was ≈ £40m

    FFS.

    You see this is good old school opposition on meaningful stuff like economics. The government is free to fight back with its own jibes. But more of this please, and less of the culture war nonsense.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,244

    FT has the figures on the Speke plant.

    Conservatives had offered a grant of £70m towards the £450m cost of the new plant (15.5% of construction cost) as well as £20m of national R&D contracts for the company.
    Labour offered £40m towards the construction of the plant (8.9% of build cost).

    The company certainly isnt short of money, its investing $3.5bn in the US, $1.5bn in Singapore and $560m in Canada production facilities and its just chasing grants, for example a $300m plant in Rockville to research stem cells that would employ 150 people is receiving $100m in state grants.

    It’s a mark of the relative unattractiveness of the UK to the industry.
    Unless and until we reverse that, we’re going to lose more of it, without such subsidies.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,463

    FT has the figures on the Speke plant.

    Conservatives had offered a grant of £70m towards the £450m cost of the new plant (15.5% of construction cost) as well as £20m of national R&D contracts for the company.
    Labour offered £40m towards the construction of the plant (8.9% of build cost).

    The company certainly isnt short of money, its investing $3.5bn in the US, $1.5bn in Singapore and $560m in Canada production facilities and its just chasing grants, for example a $300m plant in Rockville to research stem cells that would employ 150 people is receiving $100m in state grants.

    So AZ has decided to go back to Rockville? Michael Stipe won’t be happy.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,766
    edited January 31

    @Cookie's vignettes about northern urban public sector middle class voters are the most important thing that's been posted on here in recent months. Labour have a lot further to fall.
    Public sector workers voting for Reform in any significant numbers is a preposterous idea.

    Public sector workers not bothering to turn up at the polls, letting a highly energised Reform vote win the red wall... now that is an interesting prospect. But only 18% of people work in the public sector, so the effect would be a tipping point, not the main cause of a Reform victory.

    I agree though - an accusation that Labour are a London-only party could be genuinely fatal for their chances of winning the next election.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,686



    Republicans against Trump
    @RpsAgainstTrump


    BREAKING: White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt says that tomorrow, Donald Trump will impose a 25% tariff on Mexico, a 25% tariff on Canada, and a 10% tariff on China.

    Get ready to pay more for avocados, tequila, vegetables and many more items
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,613
    Nigelb said:

    It’s not the first move in the downgrading of our pharmaceutical industry.

    If we’re serious about growth, we need to reverse that.
    **** growth (well, not really, it and the balance of payments are important), but it's health I'm worried about. The US is already a giant Petri dish for bugs and getting worse.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,463




    Republicans against Trump
    @RpsAgainstTrump


    BREAKING: White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt says that tomorrow, Donald Trump will impose a 25% tariff on Mexico, a 25% tariff on Canada, and a 10% tariff on China.

    Get ready to pay more for avocados, tequila, vegetables and many more items

    Markets moving accordingly. Equities were nicely up earlier, but not anymore.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,062
    Jonathan said:

    Expectations are lower.
    That does sound more plausible.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,968
    TimS said:

    This does feel very similar to the situation in 1980 and 81 with the rising SDP. Obviously a lot else was different back then, and the government was unpopular for harsh economic shock therapy rather than uninspiring mediocrity, but the third party dynamic feels the same.

    Feels like the Tories will go further right again with their next leader, in reaction. That’s The Hague-IDS and Miliband-Corbyn pattern. God knows whether they’ll ever decide to come back centrewards.
    I agree with you - 1980’s looks most obvious way this plays out. 2 parties with very similar manifesto’s and arguments, fighting for clear blue water between themselves knowing bulk of their potential vote are are the same voters, this allows a very different minded party to profit with General Election landslides - much more than 50% of seats without ever close to 50% of the vote, huge power without even winning the ideological or political arguments about their competence.

    But it’s more so, it’s 1980s on steroids when you consider 6 parties nationally polling in double digits.

    Without a doubt in my mind, July 24 LAB, Libdem, Green lent each other votes to a hugely strong impact on Parliamentary seats, whilst Con and Ref voters were not remotely interested in helping each other, those two parties fiercely trying to squeeze the vote of the other - classic scenario for helping someone else mop up all the seats.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,766

    "shadow business secretary Andrew Griffiths said: "There's no vaccine for incompetence."

    BBC news

    Nice one. :lol:

    Sounds like the difference was ≈ £40m

    FFS.


    That's a great line.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,196




    Republicans against Trump
    @RpsAgainstTrump


    BREAKING: White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt says that tomorrow, Donald Trump will impose a 25% tariff on Mexico, a 25% tariff on Canada, and a 10% tariff on China.

    Get ready to pay more for avocados, tequila, vegetables and many more items

    Only 10% on China?
This discussion has been closed.