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A Good Sport? – politicalbetting.com

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  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,493
    Foxy said:

    There's always doubt, but I agree. Nothing would get out the Labour vote better than Farage leading in the polls.
    The problem is that "the Labour vote" is a subset of the Labour vote.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,564

    Manchester United Football Club are a case study in all that is wrong with Britain. Discuss.

    I know eff-all about football, but I'm going to guess "global brand, somewhat on the wane despite the best marketing efforts"?
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,877
    edited December 2024

    Jobs like that you'll probably get more attention if you do it at dawn.

    Do it like you belong there and people won't look twice.
    The council people start very early so I was thinking that might be seen as normal.

    They can't go around spraying everything with weedkiller (as is their wont) with lots of people around.

    Brother in law used to be paid to do the job properly but he was 'too expensive' (a couple of hundred quid a year) and the council said their 'team' could do it instead. Ha! It might have helped if they could identify what they were supposed to be conserving.


    Anyway, this kind of thing was Dave's plan, wasn't it? The Big Society. A good idea in theory...
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,785

    Manchester United Football Club are a case study in all that is wrong with Britain. Discuss.

    Perhaps, but Ipswich Town are what is right in Britain. That's football, a soap opera.

    I hope @DougSeal made the match.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,957

    Where in the UK?
    M4 Corridor (England)
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,957
    edited December 2024
    rcs1000 said:

    Seven.
    Thank you. Do I have to ask the follow-up question, or shall we just take it as read? :)
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,477

    a

    Russia is currently run by an ultra-nationalist mafia group. The rules are

    1) Putin gets half.
    2) If the piece of the country you are given actually collapses through you stealing too much, he kills you.
    Odd behaviour - I believe the punishment here is a knighthood.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,394
    edited December 2024

    Worse would be a return to Yeltsin style free-for-all-stealathon. What else is there?
    "You talk as you have nothing to do with this. This is all your doing, this infection, you call freedom without meaning and without purpose. You have given my country to gangsters, and prostitutes. You have TAKEN EVERYTHING FROM US! There's nothing left."
  • ChatGPT is your friend.

    "Here are some worst-case scenarios:

    1. Power Vacuum and Internal Chaos

    Fragmentation of the State: Regional governors, particularly in resource-rich areas like Siberia, may assert independence, leading to the breakup of the Russian Federation.
    Civil War: Rival factions within the military, intelligence agencies, and oligarchs could vie for control, potentially igniting widespread violence.
    Rise of Warlords: Local leaders or warlords may fill the void, leading to lawlessness across vast territories.

    2. Nuclear Weapons Security Risks

    Loose Nukes: In the absence of centralized control, Russia’s vast nuclear arsenal could fall into the hands of rogue actors, terrorist groups, or regional factions.
    Misuse of Nuclear Arsenal: A faction attempting to use nuclear weapons to consolidate power could provoke global conflict.
    Nuclear Blackmail: Dissident factions could threaten nuclear strikes to gain international recognition or concessions.

    3. Rise of Extremist or Hardline Regimes

    Ultranationalist Takeover: A far-right or ultranationalist regime could emerge, potentially escalating tensions with neighboring countries and fueling aggressive territorial ambitions.
    Authoritarian Strongman: Another autocrat may rise, potentially more ruthless or unpredictable than Putin.
    Religious Fundamentalism: Radical religious or ideological movements may exploit the chaos to gain influence, particularly in volatile regions like the North Caucasus.

    4. Economic Collapse and Humanitarian Crisis

    Economic Freefall: With the central government gone, financial systems could collapse, leading to hyperinflation, unemployment, and severe shortages of basic goods.
    Humanitarian Disaster: Widespread poverty, famine, and a breakdown of healthcare systems could result in mass displacement and significant loss of life.
    Mass Migration: Millions of refugees may flee to Europe, Central Asia, or China, creating international strain.

    5. Escalation of Regional Conflicts

    Neighboring State Interventions: Countries like China, Turkey, or NATO members might intervene to secure borders, resources, or protect ethnic minorities, risking international confrontation.
    Renewed Wars: Unresolved conflicts in Ukraine, Georgia, or the Caucasus could reignite and intensify.
    Territorial Disputes: Regions like Kaliningrad, Crimea, or the Kuril Islands may become flashpoints for disputes with neighboring states.

  • 6. Impact on Global Energy and Economy

    Energy Supply Shock: Disruption of Russian oil and gas exports could cause a global energy crisis, driving up prices and destabilizing economies worldwide.
    Market Instability: The collapse of one of the world's largest economies could lead to severe global market disruptions.

    7. International Security Threats

    Terrorism: Extremist groups may take advantage of the chaos to operate freely or acquire advanced weaponry.
    Proxy Wars: Global powers like the US, China, and NATO may back competing factions, leading to prolonged proxy conflicts.
    Global Spillover: Uncontrolled flows of weapons and fighters from Russia could destabilize neighboring regions and beyond.

    8. Ethnic and Religious Conflicts

    Ethnic Uprisings: Long-suppressed ethnic groups within Russia, such as the Chechens, Tatars, or Bashkirs, may push for independence, sparking conflict.
    Islamist Insurgencies: Radical groups in the North Caucasus and Central Asia might exploit the collapse to expand their influence.

    9. Environmental Catastrophe

    Neglect of Critical Infrastructure: The collapse of governance could lead to the failure of nuclear power plants, oil pipelines, and other critical infrastructure, causing environmental disasters.
    Resource Exploitation: A lack of regulation might lead to rampant resource extraction, causing long-term ecological damage.

    10. Broader Geopolitical Consequences

    China’s Expansion: China may seek to assert control over parts of Siberia or leverage the collapse for strategic gain.
    NATO Expansion: NATO could attempt to stabilize former Russian territories, risking confrontation with remaining Russian factions.
    Global Power Shift: The collapse of a major global player like Russia would leave a vacuum, potentially altering the global balance of power and emboldening other authoritarian regimes."

    How's that?
  • viewcode said:

    Thank you. Do I have to ask the follow-up question, or shall we just take it as read? :)
    £150k
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,852
    viewcode said:

    Thank you. Do I have to ask the follow-up question, or shall we just take it as read? :)
    You could do worse than assuming £2,500 a square meter.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,423
    edited December 2024
    viewcode said:

    Thank you. Do I have to ask the follow-up question, or shall we just take it as read? :)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y0C59pI_ypQ
  • 6. Impact on Global Energy and Economy

    Energy Supply Shock: Disruption of Russian oil and gas exports could cause a global energy crisis, driving up prices and destabilizing economies worldwide.
    Market Instability: The collapse of one of the world's largest economies could lead to severe global market disruptions.

    7. International Security Threats

    Terrorism: Extremist groups may take advantage of the chaos to operate freely or acquire advanced weaponry.
    Proxy Wars: Global powers like the US, China, and NATO may back competing factions, leading to prolonged proxy conflicts.
    Global Spillover: Uncontrolled flows of weapons and fighters from Russia could destabilize neighboring regions and beyond.

    8. Ethnic and Religious Conflicts

    Ethnic Uprisings: Long-suppressed ethnic groups within Russia, such as the Chechens, Tatars, or Bashkirs, may push for independence, sparking conflict.
    Islamist Insurgencies: Radical groups in the North Caucasus and Central Asia might exploit the collapse to expand their influence.

    9. Environmental Catastrophe

    Neglect of Critical Infrastructure: The collapse of governance could lead to the failure of nuclear power plants, oil pipelines, and other critical infrastructure, causing environmental disasters.
    Resource Exploitation: A lack of regulation might lead to rampant resource extraction, causing long-term ecological damage.

    10. Broader Geopolitical Consequences

    China’s Expansion: China may seek to assert control over parts of Siberia or leverage the collapse for strategic gain.
    NATO Expansion: NATO could attempt to stabilize former Russian territories, risking confrontation with remaining Russian factions.
    Global Power Shift: The collapse of a major global player like Russia would leave a vacuum, potentially altering the global balance of power and emboldening other authoritarian regimes."

    How's that?

    1, 4, 5, 6, 8 and 10 would either be a continuation of the status quo or an improvement upon it.

    Especially 1 I would say is a better case scenario.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,564

    Sure, but a Russia taken over by a mafia group, ultra-nationalists, terrorists or collapsing in chaos with a civil war and nukes sold to the highest bidder isn't good news either. And, in fact, could be even worse.

    We shouldn't like our schadenfreude blind our imaginations to the fact that it could be much worse still.
    We could send them Liz. Imagine what they could do with all that growth. As I remember Mrs.Thatcher was popular in Gorbachev-era Russia. And Liz is her true successor - in both her and the Telegraphs fevered minds.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,957

    £150k
    Ach, that's too much
  • .

    No, actions have consequences. Russia might be an authoritarian regime but as best as we can tell, the majority support both the actions and the methods employed. A reckoning is necessary. The People are complicit in this, just as the German people were under the Nazis. Not all of them but you can't pick and choose too readily.

    We do need an eye on what comes next but the regime's actions, habits, methods and grand worldview is unlikely to change unless it is challenged at the deepest level. For that, Russia must lose in Ukraine. Realistically, the only way that was ever likely to happen was on the home front, and that's what's beginning to happen. It should be allowed to play out. No off ramps.
    No-one is saying Russia shouldn't lose in Ukraine.

    But I don't agree with your Morgenthau Plan which is emotional and remarkably short-sighted.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,957
    edited December 2024

    You could do worse than assuming £2,500 a square meter.
    For 3.5x10m at 2500 per sqm, that's 87,500. That's too much, I need it to be <50K. If we cut it down to the bare minimum to make it wind-and-water-tight (so temporary plugs in the windows instead of frame-and-glass, no plaster on walls, no connected electric, even omit the upper-storey floor so all you have is a wind-and-watertight shell), that might be possible.
  • Foxy said:

    There's always doubt, but I agree. Nothing would get out the Labour vote better than Farage leading in the polls.
    Not if the Labour voters are voting for him

    And on Man Utd, their display is abject beyond belief and unless they bring in new signings in January they could end up in a relegation battle
  • Roger said:

    I would say without the slightest doubt. It would be like Le Pen in France but much more so. The country knows how to make FPTP work against the likes of Farage
    Le Pen is (joint) favourite to win in 2027, and unlike some times in the past, I don't think the odds are wrong. Indeed, I'd have her clear favourite (albeit not by much). It's not 2002 any more and not an 82-18 country any more.

    As here. Apart from anything else, I don't think the country would necessarily know who to vote for to Keep Farage Out, given Reform are far back in many constituencies and where their vote came from would be crucial. But also, as with the changes in France, there simply isn't that level of hostility across the board to the far right. In a straight Starmer / Farage vote, many Tories would back Farage just on left-right social and cultural principles, while some Labour ones would because much of Reform is quite left economically (despite occasional broad claims to the contrary, all specifics tend to subsidies, increased spending and protectionism), and even some LD/Grn voters would as a Change candidate - while SNP voters could play tactics and seek to undermine the Union by voting out the mainstream. I wouldn't like to call it, not least because Farage is a much better campaigner.
  • Just reading Tim Shipman's "Out" - how Brexit got done and the Tories were undone - which is a remarkable book.

    Nearly 400 pages in I've had my first snort out loud.

    I'm reading about The Nightmare Before Christmas, where talks almost broke down on 21st December 2020 over fish - the EU wanted a hammer clause across the whole treaty if it didn't get what it wanted on fish quotas in future - and it describes a 1:1 between Johnson and von der Leyen where he told her at 8pm, "I cannot sign this treaty, Ursula. I can't do something that is not in my country's interests". He then spoke 'terrible German' to von der Leyen, 'Viel hummer, kein hammer' (lots of lobster, no hammer). And then sought to explain the problem with reference to a surreal sketch from Monty Python.

    Does remind me that for all his faults Johnson was funny.
  • @viewcode - our daughter's 24 square metre extension cost over £50,000 this year
  • ohnotnow said:

    We could send them Liz. Imagine what they could do with all that growth. As I remember Mrs.Thatcher was popular in Gorbachev-era Russia. And Liz is her true successor - in both her and the Telegraphs fevered minds.
    Gorbachev is probably as good as it gets in Russia.

    Yeltsin was proto nationalist and was only held back from being more Putinesque by his drink, and he was his progedy for a reason.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,785
    viewcode said:

    Ach, that's too much
    These guys might be able to do you something:

    https://www.hortonsgroup.com/single-storey-log-houses/30-sq-m-single-storey-house
  • @viewcode
    If you do all the work, yes. But for any estimate like this you need to add 60% contingency because there will be loads of things you'll forget to price, and supply, labour integration and finishing issues. Some things will go wrong. That gets you very close to my estimate.

    Big savings could be made by some sort of modular or prefab house though, albeit I'm not too sighted on those.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,222

    Manchester United Football Club are a case study in all that is wrong with Britain. Discuss.

    The manager/Prime MInister thinks they have a plan, but that is either exposed as woefully naive, or is prevented from implementation by the structure around them.
  • Le Pen is (joint) favourite to win in 2027, and unlike some times in the past, I don't think the odds are wrong. Indeed, I'd have her clear favourite (albeit not by much). It's not 2002 any more and not an 82-18 country any more.

    As here. Apart from anything else, I don't think the country would necessarily know who to vote for to Keep Farage Out, given Reform are far back in many constituencies and where their vote came from would be crucial. But also, as with the changes in France, there simply isn't that level of hostility across the board to the far right. In a straight Starmer / Farage vote, many Tories would back Farage just on left-right social and cultural principles, while some Labour ones would because much of Reform is quite left economically (despite occasional broad claims to the contrary, all specifics tend to subsidies, increased spending and protectionism), and even some LD/Grn voters would as a Change candidate - while SNP voters could play tactics and seek to undermine the Union by voting out the mainstream. I wouldn't like to call it, not least because Farage is a much better campaigner.
    Labour would lose, because they wouldn't be able to resist painting Farage as far-right (which he isn’t) and it wouldn't resonate and might even backfire. Starmer would be made mincemeat by Farage in a debate.

    I stick to my prognosis: Reform would fall apart in office.
  • Malmesbury claimed it and I agreed with him, he's completely right.

    The cost of labour is seriously inflated by the cost of housing, since people need to earn more just to keep a roof above their heads currently.

    As for the cost of materials, if those materials need to be handled by people (labour) or stored anywhere (land) then its affected in the costs there too, but I agree with Malmesbury that the wages are the bigger concern that are directly affected by housing costs.

    When your employees number one expense is housing, then that has an affect on your labour costs, which is problematic when that's your number one expense yourself.
    Clearly the cost of labour for building is not seriously inflated by house prices given that the average wage for a skilled bricky is only £5k a year more than the overall UK average wage. And the UK average wage is almost identical to France and lower than many other European countries including Germany and the Netherlands.

    Unless you believe that we should all take a substantial pay cut? In which case what is the point of having lower house prices?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,946
    edited December 2024
    ...
    Foxy said:

    There's always doubt, but I agree. Nothing would get out the Labour vote better than Farage leading in the polls.
    I am not so sure. One is a national treasure and TV and Radio personality whilst the other is the second (after Reeves) most hated politician on the World 's foremost political betting blog.
  • You're the ill informed one pretending that small developers aren't stymied by the planning system when the small developers themselves state that planning is the number one problem they face.

    Almost as if you won't entertain anything that challenges your worldview.
    Nope, as I said before the main complaint from small developers is the inability to get finance. But of course you got upset that I was actually using what small developers said rather than just believing your lunatic bullshit about planning.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,785

    Just reading Tim Shipman's "Out" - how Brexit got done and the Tories were undone - which is a remarkable book.

    Nearly 400 pages in I've had my first snort out loud.

    I'm reading about The Nightmare Before Christmas, where talks almost broke down on 21st December 2020 over fish - the EU wanted a hammer clause across the whole treaty if it didn't get what it wanted on fish quotas in future - and it describes a 1:1 between Johnson and von der Leyen where he told her at 8pm, "I cannot sign this treaty, Ursula. I can't do something that is not in my country's interests". He then spoke 'terrible German' to von der Leyen, 'Viel hummer, kein hammer' (lots of lobster, no hammer). And then sought to explain the problem with reference to a surreal sketch from Monty Python.

    Does remind me that for all his faults Johnson was funny.

    It's no wonder that Brexit has worked out so badly* with that clown in charge.

    *just look at the polling, only 19% think it has gone well.

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/how-the-government-is-handling-the-issue-of-brexit-in-the-uk
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    You need some friends to stand around in work clothes, with really, really big coffees.
    Be careful - time of year has a huge effect on the damage or benefit done to the vegetation and ecology.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,493
    Foxy said:

    It's no wonder that Brexit has worked out so badly* with that clown in charge.

    *just look at the polling, only 19% think it has gone well.

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/how-the-government-is-handling-the-issue-of-brexit-in-the-uk
    That's a satisfaction rating for the government, not Brexit.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,116

    .

    No-one is saying Russia shouldn't lose in Ukraine.

    But I don't agree with your Morgenthau Plan which is emotional and remarkably short-sighted.
    Why did Germany seethe for twenty years after 1918, then start World War 2, whilst in 1945 they took a very different approach?

    And no, I don't think it's as simple as "The treaty of Versailles was too harsh."

    I think the main reason was that after WW1 Germany suffered, to use a well-known diplomatic phrase, severe butt-hurt. It was easy to sell a message that they had been betrayed, not properly defeated. Whereas in 1945, it was clear that they had been militarily defeated. It became very hard to sell a 'we were betrayed!' message.

    Putin and Russia are at the butt-hurt phase. They lost the Cold War, and suffered *despite* western countries throwing lots of treasure at them in the 1990s.

    This does not mean that we are going to invade Russia. But it does mean that Russia - including its people - need to understand quite what they've done over the last two decades, and why it is wrong. That the actions, such as sanctions, taken against them are not because we hate the Russians, but because we hate what they have done, and are doing. There is a route out of this mess for them, and that is to stop doing the stuff they are doing.

    Russia has - or perhaps had - massive potential. Great natural resources; a highly-educated workforce, and massive engineering capability. It can become a great country and a world leader *without* harassing and invading neighbouring countries.
  • Foxy said:

    It's no wonder that Brexit has worked out so badly* with that clown in charge.

    *just look at the polling, only 19% think it has gone well.

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/how-the-government-is-handling-the-issue-of-brexit-in-the-uk
    And, the very next page, the EU changed its position after that lobster call.

    So you're wrong. Not for the first time.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,116

    @viewcode
    If you do all the work, yes. But for any estimate like this you need to add 60% contingency because there will be loads of things you'll forget to price, and supply, labour integration and finishing issues. Some things will go wrong. That gets you very close to my estimate.

    Big savings could be made by some sort of modular or prefab house though, albeit I'm not too sighted on those.

    My dad was mainly in demolition and groundworks. He said you could never accurately price or estimate any job before you got out of the ground. Even connection to services could provide very costly issues. And I fear many mass builders of houses skimp on groundworks - as we have recently seen in a new development in Cambridge.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,785

    And, the very next page, the EU changed its position after that lobster call.

    So you're wrong. Not for the first time.
    Do you disagree with the British public?

    Polling consistently shows that voters think it has gone badly.

    Brexit is as popular as a turd in a swimming pool.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,116

    Totally agree, but we should also have one eye on what comes next in Russia.

    I don't think we should punish the whole Russian people. They've built up centuries of paranoia about the West as it is, which we don't need to feed.
    It is up to Russia to decide what comes next for Russia. Trying to determine that for them would just add to that paranoia about the West, and is probably unknowable anyway.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,785
    edited December 2024

    That's a satisfaction rating for the government, not Brexit.
    For the governments handling of brexit, hence the July discontinuity.

    There are other polls and reports, e.g.

    https://natcen.ac.uk/public-attitudes-new-eu-referendum
  • Why did Germany seethe for twenty years after 1918, then start World War 2, whilst in 1945 they took a very different approach?

    And no, I don't think it's as simple as "The treaty of Versailles was too harsh."

    I think the main reason was that after WW1 Germany suffered, to use a well-known diplomatic phrase, severe butt-hurt. It was easy to sell a message that they had been betrayed, not properly defeated. Whereas in 1945, it was clear that they had been militarily defeated. It became very hard to sell a 'we were betrayed!' message.

    Putin and Russia are at the butt-hurt phase. They lost the Cold War, and suffered *despite* western countries throwing lots of treasure at them in the 1990s.

    This does not mean that we are going to invade Russia. But it does mean that Russia - including its people - need to understand quite what they've done over the last two decades, and why it is wrong. That the actions, such as sanctions, taken against them are not because we hate the Russians, but because we hate what they have done, and are doing. There is a route out of this mess for them, and that is to stop doing the stuff they are doing.

    Russia has - or perhaps had - massive potential. Great natural resources; a highly-educated workforce, and massive engineering capability. It can become a great country and a world leader *without* harassing and invading neighbouring countries.
    Yes, I agree. And one has to understand Russian psychology: the route to achieving that is to work with them to get them to recognise they can be a great country for positive reasons following the path you describe, not giving them an almighty punishment fuck which will end up with exactly the same (or worse) results as it did post the end of the Cold War.
  • Foxy said:

    Do you disagree with the British public?

    Polling consistently shows that voters think it has gone badly.

    Brexit is as popular as a turd in a swimming pool.
    Lol
  • @viewcode - our daughter's 24 square metre extension cost over £50,000 this year

    Single story?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,222
    Foxy said:

    Do you disagree with the British public?

    Polling consistently shows that voters think it has gone badly.

    Brexit is as popular as a turd in a swimming pool.
    Then this government is as popular as a septic tank emptied into one...
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,785

    Then this government is as popular as a septic tank emptied into one...
    This governments Brexit policy is...
  • My dad was mainly in demolition and groundworks. He said you could never accurately price or estimate any job before you got out of the ground. Even connection to services could provide very costly issues. And I fear many mass builders of houses skimp on groundworks - as we have recently seen in a new development in Cambridge.
    Your Dad is very wise.

    You can price substructures and superstructures (the unit costs of the materials) because they are surveyable quantities and can be pre-purchased and stored. Labour on top is more of a challenge but the sequence should be largely predictable.

    Civils and MEH works can vary site to site. All residential building projects are a microcosm of how very large infrastructure projects can go wrong, usually because the risk simply hasn't been properly accounted for and the buck always stops with the client.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,116

    Yes, I agree. And one has to understand Russian psychology: the route to achieving that is to work with them to get them to recognise they can be a great country for positive reasons following the path you describe, not giving them an almighty punishment fuck which will end up with exactly the same (or worse) results as it did post the end of the Cold War.
    One of the myths (I think coming from Russia itself) is that we (the west) gave them an 'almighty punishment fuck' after 1991. As far as I can tell, that is not true. Large amounts of money were directly and indirectly thrown at Russia, in part because we were afraid of it disintegrating. We held out a hand of friendship. And I think it nearly worked.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 23,267
    edited December 2024

    Nope, as I said before the main complaint from small developers is the inability to get finance. But of course you got upset that I was actually using what small developers said rather than just believing your lunatic bullshit about planning.
    And as the small developers have said themselves, you're wrong.

    "For the fifth consecutive year, planning continues to be the largest obstacle to delivery"

    https://www.hbf.co.uk/news/planning-delays-a-lack-of-providers-to-take-on-affordable-homes-and-nimbys-top-concerns-for-sme-home-builders/

    Why do you pretend that finance is the main complaint, when its a matter of record that planning is the main complaint?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,116

    Your Dad is very wise.

    You can price substructures and superstructures (the unit costs of the materials) because they are surveyable quantities and can be pre-purchased and stored. Labour on top is more of a challenge but the sequence should be largely predictable.

    Civils and MEH works can vary site to site. All residential building projects are a microcosm of how very large infrastructure projects can go wrong, usually because the risk simply hasn't been properly accounted for and the buck always stops with the client.
    I wanted to go into tunnelling, where most of the money is spent underground. :)

    (I am still really, really fascinated with the subject. In an alternate universe, I'd be working on a tunnel somewhere in the world.)
  • Yeltsin was a classic chancer-politician who liked power and liked to be popular. He had no fixed ideology and brought down the USSR from within solely so that he could run Russia as a state for himself (which was probably a personal strategic mistake as he was in a position to take over from Gorbachev and could have held on to most of the country).

    Yeltsin went through any number of PMs and Putin was foisted on him by a KGB-FSB clique who were rightly worried that they may lose what precarious grip on power they retained. But they were lucky the music stopped when Putin was in the hot-seat; there was no guarantee of that (Chechen wars and staged apartment bombings notwithstanding).

    But what comes next can be impossible to predict. Who knows what the second rank would do if allowed power. Putin was not obviously a new dictator in 2000. In fact he looked out of his depth and the Oligarchy looked set to retain its strong share of power. Who would have predicted that after Stalin's even greater dictatorship, a communal and mutually agreed sharing of power would emerge among the elite? Or that after Franco, Juan Carlos - who held office through the autocratic era - would restore democracy?
    Yes, it's possible that a post Putin Russia surprises on the upside. But, I'm not especially hopeful of that based on the evidence before us, rather than wishful thinking. He's killed every possible moderate contender, and opposition there is none outside Moscow and St Petersburg - which Western media is hopelessly bias in focusing upon.

    I suppose someone new could emerge who's wise and strong enough to lead Russia into a brave new age. But I'd assess that as a 15% shot.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,345
    edited December 2024

    Le Pen is (joint) favourite to win in 2027, and unlike some times in the past, I don't think the odds are wrong. Indeed, I'd have her clear favourite (albeit not by much). It's not 2002 any more and not an 82-18 country any more.

    As here. Apart from anything else, I don't think the country would necessarily know who to vote for to Keep Farage Out, given Reform are far back in many constituencies and where their vote came from would be crucial. But also, as with the changes in France, there simply isn't that level of hostility across the board to the far right. In a straight Starmer / Farage vote, many Tories would back Farage just on left-right social and cultural principles, while some Labour ones would because much of Reform is quite left economically (despite occasional broad claims to the contrary, all specifics tend to subsidies, increased spending and protectionism), and even some LD/Grn voters would as a Change candidate - while SNP voters could play tactics and seek to undermine the Union by voting out the mainstream. I wouldn't like to call it, not least because Farage is a much better campaigner.
    I think that once you establish yourself as the hegemonic party, on one side of other of the political spectrum, you are almost bound to form a government, due to the swing of the pendulum.

    Hence my 1924 example. It was a big Tory win, but Labour increased their vote share, and almost wiped out the Liberals in urban and mining constituencies. Once the Tories became unpopular, Labour was bound to get most of the anti-Tory vote.

    RN are in the same place, more or less, as Labour in 1924. They’ve eclipsed all rivals on the French Right.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    My dad was mainly in demolition and groundworks. He said you could never accurately price or estimate any job before you got out of the ground. Even connection to services could provide very costly issues. And I fear many mass builders of houses skimp on groundworks - as we have recently seen in a new development in Cambridge.
    I was once involved in a major development for my agency - fortunately at the latter end of the project. They separated out the preparation of a huge hole in the ground and the concrete pouring for the basic foundations, from the actual building. P|robably a year between them, but I imagine it saved on any worries in a complex urban site going back centuries with umpteen old wells, rubbish pits and foundations.

    In Berwick-uon-Tweed, there's a fine street of houses near the barracks - obviously the sort of place the officers liked to live. Sone very nice interiors too if you are lucky and pass when work is being done. But oh, the subsidence on some ... I can't help noticing that there was an abortive attempt at a ?C16 star fortification in that very area. The ditches not properly compacted?
  • I wanted to go into tunnelling, where most of the money is spent underground. :)

    (I am still really, really fascinated with the subject. In an alternate universe, I'd be working on a tunnel somewhere in the world.)
    HS2 is your friend!

    I had a cracking time on the TBMs when the Elizabeth Line was being bored between Liverpool St and Whitechapel. I'll never forget that experience, the slurry that came out in droves on the conveyors nor how quickly the tunnel segments were laid.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    HS2 is your friend!

    I had a cracking time on the TBMs when the Elizabeth Line was being bored between Liverpool St and Whitechapel. I'll never forget that experience, the slurry that came out in droves on the conveyors nor how quickly the tunnel segments were laid.
    Channelling your Marc Brunel ... I never saw that up front (but a visit to a NATM drill and spray concrete over at once was almost as good).
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,487

    I wanted to go into tunnelling, where most of the money is spent underground. :)

    (I am still really, really fascinated with the subject. In an alternate universe, I'd be working on a tunnel somewhere in the world.)
    Bring along some bats and HS2 will give you a job.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,785

    One of the myths (I think coming from Russia itself) is that we (the west) gave them an 'almighty punishment fuck' after 1991. As far as I can tell, that is not true. Large amounts of money were directly and indirectly thrown at Russia, in part because we were afraid of it disintegrating. We held out a hand of friendship. And I think it nearly worked.
    It's always difficult to predict collapses of power. We saw in Syria that Assad collapsed slowly then very quickly. We saw it with the collapse of our own Empire too.

    It was the same in the Gorbachov/Yeltsin era. Once things started cracking in the USSR the various republics declared independence very quickly. While Putin may mock their nationalism, it is obvious from Ukraine that even closely related people often speaking the same language do not hunger for Russian rule.

    If the Putin regime does collapse, it is most likely into another gangster state ruled by oligarchs. It's not impossible that something more radical could emerge, but that is unlikely to be democracy. Most countries take some time before they see the benefits of democracy.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,207
    edited December 2024
    viewcode said:

    OK, PB Brains Trust, how much would it cost to build a two storey house, 3.5metres by 10metres, bathroom and bedroom upstairs, living room and kitchen downstairs.

    The points are as follows:

    • Assume the land has been purchased and detailed planning permission has been granted.
    • Assume conventional building techniques: bricks and mortar for the walls, tiles for the roof.
    • Do not include the cost of fitting out the bathroom/kitchen as that's variable.
    Between £1500 and £4000 per sqm, depending on a lot of things. Most particularly, how much you are intending to do yourself, and spec level, and region. £2500 to £3500 is probably nearer.

    There are a number of OK cost estimating sites online, or see if one of your advisers has a copy of SPONS.

    But 3.5 m x 10 m is a really strange proportion with a very high SA:V ratio, and much more heat loss. and all your rooms with 3 outside walls. 7m x 7m or 6m x 8m would give you 30-50% more floor area for the same amount of wall.

    With 30cm thick walls (which may not be achievable with conventional techniques - depending on which conventional techniques you mean) techniques you will end up with very narrow rooms under 9ft wide.

    On those dimensions I would be looking at something very simple, like single thickness no cavity block and the insulation on the outside, or a turnkey timber frame.
  • One term latest:


    Labour urged to drop ‘Western-centric’ science in school curriculum

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/12/30/labour-urged-drop-western-centric-science-curriculum/
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,785
    Sean_F said:

    I think that once you establish yourself as the hegemonic party, on one side of other of the political spectrum, you are almost bound to form a government, due to the swing of the pendulum.

    Hence my 1924 example. It was a big Tory win, but Labour increased their vote share, and almost wiped out the Liberals in urban and mining constituencies. Once the Tories became unpopular, Labour was bound to get most of the anti-Tory vote.

    RN are in the same place, more or less, as Labour in 1924. They’ve eclipsed all rivals on the French Right.
    I would place Reform as more like RN twenty years ago, and Farage hasn't got 20 years.

  • .

    No-one is saying Russia shouldn't lose in Ukraine.

    But I don't agree with your Morgenthau Plan which is emotional and remarkably short-sighted.
    Emotions matter. Countries that lose wars - particularly those that started the war in question, unprovoked and for territorial gain - pay a price. That's always been the case historically and I see no reason to change that. It used to be in territory however other than a restoration of the 1991 boundaries I'd be content there. But the hundreds of billions that Russia has frozen can go to Ukraine.

    However, if Russia is to lose then the regime will almost fall, not least because the latter may well be necessary to produce the former. As such, we can't worry excessively about what comes next.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,785
    MattW said:

    Between £1500 and £4000 per sqm, depending on a lot of things. Most particularly, how much you are intending to do yourself, and spec level, and region. £2500 to £3500 is probably nearer.

    There are a number of OK cost estimating sites online, or see if one of your advisers has a copy of SPONS.

    But 3.5 m x 10 m is a really strange proportion with a very high SA:V ratio, and much more heat loss. and all your rooms with 3 outside walls. 7m x 7m or 6m x 8m would give you 30-50% more floor area for the same amount of wall.

    With 30cm thick walls (which may not be achievable with conventional techniques - depending on which conventional techniques you mean) techniques you will end up with very narrow rooms under 9ft wide.

    On those dimensions I would be looking at something very simple, like single thickness no cavity block and the insulation on the outside, or a turnkey timber frame.
    It sounds like the plot of a fairly narrow terraced house. Obviously cheaper to do the whole terrace and split it.
  • Ipswich 2 - 0 Chelsea

    That surely ends Chelsea's title hopes realistically? At the halfway mark of the season [for them] they're now 10 points behind Liverpool with the Reds having a game in hand still.

    Can Ipswich catch up with Man Utd in the table though? Looking more plausible than when I joked about it earlier that the gap is coming down to 7 points tonight between Ipswich in the relegation zone and United.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,946
    ....

    Just reading Tim Shipman's "Out" - how Brexit got done and the Tories were undone - which is a remarkable book.

    Nearly 400 pages in I've had my first snort out loud.

    I'm reading about The Nightmare Before Christmas, where talks almost broke down on 21st December 2020 over fish - the EU wanted a hammer clause across the whole treaty if it didn't get what it wanted on fish quotas in future - and it describes a 1:1 between Johnson and von der Leyen where he told her at 8pm, "I cannot sign this treaty, Ursula. I can't do something that is not in my country's interests". He then spoke 'terrible German' to von der Leyen, 'Viel hummer, kein hammer' (lots of lobster, no hammer). And then sought to explain the problem with reference to a surreal sketch from Monty Python.

    Does remind me that for all his faults Johnson was funny.

    Funny as in peculiar.

    Someone's comic genius is someone else's complete w*****.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,281

    Not if the Labour voters are voting for him

    And on Man Utd, their display is abject beyond belief and unless they bring in new signings in January they could end up in a relegation battle
    'Is there a fire drill....
    Is there a fire drill....'

    .....Sang the Newcastle supporters.....
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,785

    Ipswich 2 - 0 Chelsea

    That surely ends Chelsea's title hopes realistically? At the halfway mark of the season [for them] they're now 10 points behind Liverpool with the Reds having a game in hand still.

    Can Ipswich catch up with Man Utd in the table though? Looking more plausible than when I joked about it earlier that the gap is coming down to 7 points tonight between Ipswich in the relegation zone and United.

    How soon before ManU contact Leicester for RVN? Not that his record is great with us(though at least entertaining) but it was the best bit of the ManU season.
  • Sean_F said:

    I think that once you establish yourself as the hegemonic party, on one side of other of the political spectrum, you are almost bound to form a government, due to the swing of the pendulum.

    Hence my 1924 example. It was a big Tory win, but Labour increased their vote share, and almost wiped out the Liberals in urban and mining constituencies. Once the Tories became unpopular, Labour was bound to get most of the anti-Tory vote.

    RN are in the same place, more or less, as Labour in 1924. They’ve eclipsed all rivals on the French Right.
    I don't think it's quite the same as Macron is neither left nor right - or at least, tries not to be. Hence his three-bloc problem in parliament.

    But that may play into Le Pen's hands anyway if she ends up against Melenchon or similar in the run-off.
  • One term latest:


    Labour urged to drop ‘Western-centric’ science in school curriculum

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/12/30/labour-urged-drop-western-centric-science-curriculum/

    Wokery writ-large.

    This is where the madness of EDI - which sits at the top of so many institutions and organisations now - leads.

    Science is science is science.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,542
    edited December 2024

    ....

    Funny as in peculiar.

    Someone's comic genius is someone else's complete w*****.
    The EU have bought back this concept in the latest negotiations - they want the five-year transitional fishing arrangements extended permanently - and claiming it as a red line. Hopefully Starmer will be as robust.
  • Single story?
    Yes
  • Foxy said:

    How soon before ManU contact Leicester for RVN? Not that his record is great with us(though at least entertaining) but it was the best bit of the ManU season.
    How long before Anorim gets sacked?

    5 defeats from first 8 games, joint worst in United's entire history.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,991
    Up the Toon
  • Foxy said:

    It's always difficult to predict collapses of power. We saw in Syria that Assad collapsed slowly then very quickly. We saw it with the collapse of our own Empire too.

    It was the same in the Gorbachov/Yeltsin era. Once things started cracking in the USSR the various republics declared independence very quickly. While Putin may mock their nationalism, it is obvious from Ukraine that even closely related people often speaking the same language do not hunger for Russian rule.

    If the Putin regime does collapse, it is most likely into another gangster state ruled by oligarchs. It's not impossible that something more radical could emerge, but that is unlikely to be democracy. Most countries take some time before they see the benefits of democracy.
    Though even a kleptocracy is likely to be an improvement on a kleptocracy with a KGB-nostalgic at its head.

    Still pretty terrible for Russians, but all these wars and foreign destabilisings get in the way of honest theft.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,142
    "Welsh Ambulance Service declares critical incident"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c62z14perego
  • Foxy said:

    How soon before ManU contact Leicester for RVN? Not that his record is great with us(though at least entertaining) but it was the best bit of the ManU season.
    There are many parts to this failure and tonight Fernandes red card together with Ugarta's ban did cause issues but the team selection was poor

    Far too many players are either past it or hopelessly useless that a reconstruction is inevitable and it won't be quick

    They may have a relegation fight but I expect Amorin will survive
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,695

    One term latest:


    Labour urged to drop ‘Western-centric’ science in school curriculum

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/12/30/labour-urged-drop-western-centric-science-curriculum/

    People unconnected with government urge it to do something, which it won’t do. Link to “one term” being what, exactly?

    This is roughly up there with “Britain First urges Tories to adopt mass deportation as policy”.
  • Up the Toon

    They were impressive and deserved the win
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,695

    Though even a kleptocracy is likely to be an improvement on a kleptocracy with a KGB-nostalgic at its head.

    Still pretty terrible for Russians, but all these wars and foreign destabilisings get in the way of honest theft.
    The smaller that kleptocracy can become, the better. Ideally a radius of a thousand or so kilometres from Moscow, and let the rest of the empire decolonise.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,281

    One term latest:


    Labour urged to drop ‘Western-centric’ science in school curriculum

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/12/30/labour-urged-drop-western-centric-science-curriculum/

    You could always give up the Telegraph. It's well known it makes you go blind
  • How long before Anorim gets sacked?

    5 defeats from first 8 games, joint worst in United's entire history.
    He inherited a failed team and management so I doubt anyone else would improve it at present
  • One term latest:


    Labour urged to drop ‘Western-centric’ science in school curriculum

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/12/30/labour-urged-drop-western-centric-science-curriculum/

    Is there such a thing as "non-Western-centric" science?
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,656
    carnforth said:

    The EU have bought back this concept in the latest negotiations - they want the five-year transitional fishing arrangements extended permanently - and claiming it as a red line. Hopefully Starmer will be as robust.
    Points at the chagos negotiation....starmer will be less robust than a barrat home
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022

    One of the myths (I think coming from Russia itself) is that we (the west) gave them an 'almighty punishment fuck' after 1991. As far as I can tell, that is not true. Large amounts of money were directly and indirectly thrown at Russia, in part because we were afraid of it disintegrating. We held out a hand of friendship. And I think it nearly worked.
    More than that we urged the Ukrainians NOT to leave the USSR. No-one objected to giving Russia the USSR's seat on the UN Security Council. Welcomed into the G7. It's a classic example of blaming others for your own failings.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,695
    edited December 2024

    ....

    Funny as in peculiar.

    Someone's comic genius is someone else's complete w*****.
    I got talking to a French neighbour yesterday (strictly speaking the new boyfriend - but he’s in his 60s - of our long standing neighbour Barbara).

    After we’d done commenting on the foggy weather, discussed their pregnant horse and I’d introduced my son to him, he mentioned that he’s in the middle of reading Boris Johnson’s book, in the French translation. Which is, he said, hilarious. “Johnson is a very talented writer”.

    Interesting that a random bourgeois in rural France should be picking up Boris Johnson memoirs in the local bookshop.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,281
    edited December 2024
    OT A bit crazy to blame hotel staff because Liam Payne took drugs.

    Ridiculous in fact. Is there anywhere where people are responsible for themselves?
  • Andy_JS said:

    "Welsh Ambulance Service declares critical incident"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c62z14perego

    Not for the first time by some distance and it is Labour in charge of the NHS here In Wales and have been for 25 years
  • Is there such a thing as "non-Western-centric" science?
    What matters is that Labour, if they go along with this, have learnt nothing, absolutely nothing, from the Trump 2.0 win.

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,345

    Is there such a thing as "non-Western-centric" science?
    Astrology, perhaps?
  • TimS said:

    People unconnected with government urge it to do something, which it won’t do. Link to “one term” being what, exactly?

    This is roughly up there with “Britain First urges Tories to adopt mass deportation as policy”.
    Are you sure they wont to do it?

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,878
    What are the odds next year's Manchester Derbies are in the Championship?
    A heck of a lot shorter than two months ago.
  • Roger said:

    OT A bit crazy to blame hotel staff because Liam Payne took drugs.

    Ridiculous in fact. Is there anywhere where people are responsible for themselves?

    It is alleged they sold him drugs
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,785
    edited December 2024
    Andy_JS said:

    "Welsh Ambulance Service declares critical incident"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c62z14perego

    Not the only one.

    In the West Midlands alone 183 Ambulances are waiting outside hospitals, over 100 have been there more than an hour. 18 are en route.to somewhere.

    Glad I'm not working until Thursday...

  • carnforth said:

    The EU have bought back this concept in the latest negotiations - they want the five-year transitional fishing arrangements extended permanently - and claiming it as a red line. Hopefully Starmer will be as robust.
    Starmer will concede it in the first 30 seconds.
  • dixiedean said:

    What are the odds next year's Manchester Derbies are in the Championship?
    A heck of a lot shorter than two months ago.

    I wouldn't go that far
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,047
    Sean_F said:

    I think that once you establish yourself as the hegemonic party, on one side of other of the political spectrum, you are almost bound to form a government, due to the swing of the pendulum.

    Hence my 1924 example. It was a big Tory win, but Labour increased their vote share, and almost wiped out the Liberals in urban and mining constituencies. Once the Tories became unpopular, Labour was bound to get most of the anti-Tory vote.

    RN are in the same place, more or less, as Labour in 1924. They’ve eclipsed all rivals on the French Right.
    I think that's *largely* true, with the proviso that if you are hegemonic, but provoke greater tactical voting against you than the alternative, then your bar for success becomes pretty high.

    You are also missing the LibDem dynamic: the left and centre left has thrived by having two parties that pretty actively tactically vote for each other. In places where Labour can't win, the LibDems gain most of their votes. And in places the LibDems can't win, then may of their voters vote Red.

    Now it's quite possible that things are highly fragmented in 2029, and that plays to Reform's advantage, and therefore tactical voting against them is minimized.

    But as the Conservatives discovered in 2005 (and this year), or as the SNP did this year, then if there is substantial tactical voting against you in FPTP, you can be absolutely hammered. I could see - for example - Reform substantially ahead of the Labour Party, but struggling to match them in seat terms.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,695

    What matters is that Labour, if they go along with this, have learnt nothing, absolutely nothing, from the Trump 2.0 win.

    Telegraph derangement syndrome. What’s next, is it 7 bins or 15 minute cities?

    “What matters is that the Tories, if they go along with Tommy Robinson’s new racial extermination proposal, have learned nothing, absolutely nothing, from the defeat of Hitler in 1945”.

  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,281

    It is alleged they sold him drugs
    Did they threaten him if he didn't buy them?
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,695
    edited December 2024

    Starmer will concede it in the first 30 seconds.
    This evening’s vibe: “I don’t like the government, therefore I’ll predict that they’ll do something really bad and then feel pre-emptively and satisfyingly indignant about it.”
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,744
    edited December 2024

    How long before Anorim gets sacked?

    5 defeats from first 8 games, joint worst in United's entire history.
    To pick up an analogy somebody pointed to earlier, Amorim's Manchester United faces a similar dilemma to Starmer's government. Both are dealing with 14 years of neglect and mismanagement, and people who expect them to turn it around in a few short weeks are barking. As with Starmer, let's do an assessment in a couple of years' time.
This discussion has been closed.