Size isn’t important, it’s what you do with it that counts, just ask Jeremy Corbyn

Foxy said:

Driver said:

Foxy said:

Driver said:

Fishing said:

Foxy said:

Driver said:

Foxy said:

Casino_Royale said:

Northern_Al said:

Anybody who seriously thinks that the WFA cut, the IHT on farms issue, and the VAT on private school fees policy will be issues of significance in the 2028/29 GE must be bonkers, as must anybody who thinks that keying current polling figures into Electoral Calculus gives us a clue as to the outcome of that election.
Sorry HYUFD, but therefore it follows logically that you must be bonkers.

I'd almost argue the opposite, why wouldn't they be?

Where does this idea that people "forget" policies or measures that targeted them once a parliament approaches its conclusion come from?

Some might give up, accept it, or move onto other issues, but that's very far from a given.

Certainly so. I won't vote for a party that supports Brexit.

What is this "supports Brexit"? It's a part of history.

Just agreeing with CR. Voters have long memories and bear grudges.

I won't vote for a party that still supports the most collosal mistake of British foreign policy since Suez.

The Tories will become electable again when they support their policy of the half century to 2016 and want to join the EU. I don't expect it to happen any time soon.

The Tories didn't want to join the EU for half a century. In the 70s most of them supported joining the Common Market, which was very different from the EU, despite Ted Heath's lies about retaining sovereignty.

In the 90s Major just about got his party to pass the Maastricht treated, which spawned the EU.

And their policy in the 2010s was to have a referendum and implement the results, which they did, backed by the biggest democractic vote in this country's history, and endorsed by three general elections.

So there's no continuity in European policy for them to go back to, nor could there have been, as the EU has mutated and metastacised so much over that time.

Insofar as there was a consistent policy for that half century, it was "lie about what the European project was actually about".

To quote the Queens Speech at the State opening of Parliament in 1972:

"My Government will play a full and constructive part in the enlarged European Communities. They look forward to the opportunities membership will bring, for developing the country's full economic and industrial potential, for working out social and environmental policies on a European scale, and for increasing the influence of the enlarged Community for the benefit of the world at large."

It was always and explicitly more than a trading arrangement. Unless you believe that the Queen was lying to Parliament.

Yeah, as if that's a full description of the Project.

Perhaps the 1973 Queens speech in Hansard helps:

"In co-operation with other Member States My Government will play their full part in the further development of the European Community in accordance with the programme established at the European Summit in October 1972. This programme includes progress towards economic and monetary union; measures for the establishment of a regional development fund; and co-operation in foreign policy between Member States."

For a secret project the operational security wasn't very tight, with the Queen blabbing like that in Parliament.

Richard_Tyndall said:

ohnotnow said:

Malmesbury said:

Gallowgate said:

@HYUFD is continuously fighting the last battle

… of the war between the Beaker People and their antecedents, probably.

I think you'll find that a snap Opinium poll from ~2000BC showed that the Beaker People were on track to win the Bronze Age. And thus it came to pass.

...

Oh, hang on.

For gods sake don't give Reform any ideas.

Based on mitochondrial DNA, the arrival of the Beaker People was the last time migrants were properly bad news for the indigenous people of the British Isles. Somewhere north of 95% of the indigenous population were dead within a generation of the arrival of the Beaker People. Probably due to similar reasons for the Native Americans being wiped out - disease to which we had no immunity.

algarkirk said:

spudgfsh said:

algarkirk said:

SonofContrarian said:

algarkirk said:

maxh said:

PB, apologies for a lengthy post of marginal interest to most. I'd appreciate advice, particularly from any thoughtful religious types, or agnostics who respect those who believe:

My wife is a Christian, I'm firmly agnostic. We have two kids, who after discussion together we have agreed to bring up as Christians until they can choose for themselves. As a result we are often in church as a family (whenever we are at home on a Sunday).

My wife's vicar has, understandably, taken an interest in converting me, which (short of incontrovertible divine revelation) he has no hope of doing. I've made this clear to him. We've been to the pub together once and had a good chat. He has asked me to read John's gospel and for us to meet again.

My reaction to all of this is twofold:
1. I want to continue meeting and discussing with him as a way of honouring my wife's faith and to be respectful of the church I regularly attend.
2. I have quite strong skeptical reactions to the gospels (in essence my view is that of Don Cupitt's that Jesus was an insightful itinerant whose disciples over-claimed for him after his death in a form of confirmation bias).

Here's my quandry: in my own inexpert way I
sense that the vicar isn't really up for a really robust discussion about this stuff; he has quite a bit of trauma in his own life (lost his first wife to cancer, relatives are mentally unwell) and the fervour with which he proclaims his own faith signals to me someone with plenty of their own demons to fight (I may be wholly inaccurate in this assessment, though he did say he found our last meeting difficult and didn't feel as though he did his faith justice in the way he responded to some of the questions I had).

I'm due to meet him for another chat in Jan. Do I
(a) Politely discuss John's gospel, skirting around some of my skepticism and keeping everything surface level, which feels like it is wasting both of our time;
(b) Engage fully, raising all the questions I have and arguing for my skeptical view on the basis that this respects the time he is putting into our relationship and that this is the conversation I'd find most interesting;
(c) Seek to extricate myself from the next meeting entirely in some way, whilst still respecting that this is an authority-figure for my wife;
(d) Do something else?

Feel free to tell me I'm being an arsehole if I have missed something important.

(b). If he can't cope with this he is in the wrong job.

Footnotes: Vicars who start off from John's gospel are often uncritical of how ancient texts work. It is a dense work rooted in a culture modern Christians can't comprehend. It's relationship to what we call history is very complicated.

The historical Jesus is substantially more than a decent itinerant. For a highly informed and critically acute view, EP Sanders 'The historical figure of Jesus' publ by Penguin is outstanding. Worth a read.

If your vicar hasn't read it then he probably hasn't read very much decent stuff. A lot just read American pop paperbacks by fundamentalists.

All Christians (including me) are agnostics, just like all the human race. Religion is not a knowable item.

Maybe get off the agnostic fence...And become an atheist..😏

All atheists are agnostics. Just like all theists (including me). Whether some subject is knowable depends on the the nature of the subject, not the opinion of the putative knower.

This is one of the trillion interesting insights of Kant's first critique.

That's not true though.

a true atheist actively disbelieves in god while an agnostic doesn't know if god exists but may actively disbelieve in the organised religions.

No amount of belief or disbelief amounts to knowledge. Neither atheists nor theists are in any position to correctly claim to 'know'. To know something is to have a justified true belief. Both theism and atheism are properly believable and both have abundant justification. But which (if either) is true remains entirely open.

Nigelb said:

Roger said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Roger said:

HYUFD said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

HYUFD said:

david_herdson said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

OldKingCole said:

HYUFD said:

kinabalu said:

HYUFD said:

kinabalu said:

HYUFD said:

OldKingCole said:

HYUFD said:

RochdalePioneers said:

HYUFD said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

Yes, Labour under Corbyn had 150,000 more members than it does now under Starmer but it was the latter who won a general election.

It is not surprising more hardcore rightwingers have switched to Farage's Reform over the Tories, though in most polls the Tories are still ahead of Reform even if Reform have more members. Remember the main swing since July has been Labour to Reform, the Tories little changed. Some Tories would vote LD over Reform even if they would not join any party

As the Tories are on the back of historically their worst performance in the post Victorian era, I would have thought Reform syphoning off more from Labour than the Conservatives is scant relief for the remaining faithful. I believe you understand the damage working class hero and snake oil salesman Farage could do to the Labour Party but have missed that he has already done his work on your party.

Although to be fair I would have thought you would dovetail neatly into Reform. Afterall they do all the fun things you like. Elitism, Grammar schools, no inheritance tax, reducing the size of the state, privatisation of public services, fox hunting, repatriation of foreigners and the list continues. No hanging and flogging yet, although when Suella has her feet under the table who knows?

Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats on current polls purely as a result of Labour voters going Reform and FPTP even if the Tory vote is largely unchanged from July.

There is no doubt Reform are gaining, now on -32% higher in net favourability than either Labour on -35% or the Tories on -43%.

Kemi still has a higher net favourable on -31% compared to -34% for Farage and -36% for Starmer

https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/nigel-farage-reform-uk-now-has-more-members-than-the-conservative-party-qwd2wmcwc

I just don't understand how your brain works. You know politics. You are involved in politics. So you know as well as I do that the snapshot today *is not how people will vote in 4 years time*

The question is how the trends will play out. And the trends are moving away from you and towards Reform, on what feels like an exponential curve once you factor in that Reform now have all the money and the media attention.

"Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats". No, she won't. Which seats do you have in mind?

Electoral Calculus' average poll projection now has the Tories up 84 MPs to 205, Labour down 127 to 285, the LDs down 4 to 68 and Reform up 33 to 38 and the SNP up 7 to 16. Giving a hung parliament
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

Lab/LibDem coalition from the looks of it. If the LibDems are prepared to enter a coalition, of course.
Could take a centre-left Government through to 2034.

Of course, things will almost certainly change.

Indeed, though as the LDs oppose the tractor tax, oppose the winter fuel allowance cut and are more NIMBY on building in greenbelt land in the home counties could be quite some demands Sir Ed gives Sir Keir for his support

What is the tractor tax?

Labour hammering family farms with assets over £1 million with IHT which the LDs oppose

Unlikely to have tractors worth that much. And would that be IHT at half the normal rate with 10 years to pay it by any chance?

It would be IHT destroying family farms which have an average value of around £2 million.

Regardless of the policy value anyway the Tories, Reform, the LDs and SNP all oppose it so Starmer if he loses his majority either has to scrap it and the winter fuel allowance cut all the opposition parties also oppose or they all no confidence a Labour minority government and throw him out of office

By 2029 this will be old hat, and the big landowners, who are most affected, will have worked out deals with their accountants and solicitors.
The Winter Fuel Allowance will be long forgotten, as there will some directed form of support to the needy, not handouts for the likes of Big and myself.

No they won't, I live in a rural area and the loathing for this Labour government round here is unbelievable, rural areas will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with Labour and keeps the hated tractor tax.

Pensioners also will never forgive Labour either for their total betrayal, you even hear them at cafes whinging on Starmer's betrayal, they also will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with them and keeps the WFA cut.

Plus you have the employers and small businesses hammered by the NI for employers rise also furious with the government and Starmer and Reeves

I am with @OldKingCole on this

The universal WFP will not be reinstated, and there will be a very different set of problems and issues that will need innovative ways to resolve by 2029

Mel Stride has already said the triple lock is unaffordable and that will not be in the manifesto as it is unaffordable

To be honest, you should join reform as that is where your heart is and where they live, back in the 1950s, whereas the country has moved on and frankly I expect reform to become quite unpopular if they take Musk's money and side with Trump and his crazy ideas

In which case the Starmer government will be thrown out of office once it loses its majority as the LDs will hold the balance of power on current polls and want the universal WFP reinstated let alone Reform.

The Tories are a million miles from a majority too so Stride can say what he wants he won't be able to implement it without LD or Reform backing either

The Scots have a wonderful expression for you

You are just 'havering'

Look it up

It is just reality, the Tories, LDs, Reform and SNP would all back a no confidence vote in a Labour minority government unless it reverses the tractor tax and WFA cut. So unless Labour retains its majority at the next GE both those policies are doomed

You assume far too much there. The SNP will never (again) put the Tories in over Labour. The Lib Dems are very unlikely to with the Tories in their current state. And we can't have endless general elections so if it is a Con-/Lab-led govt choice then they'd go with Labour.

You don't need to No Confidence a minority government to get your preferred policies when you can oppose vote-by-vote.

That said, the Winter Fuel issue will be very old news by 2028/9.

The LDs if Kingmakers could simply restore the WFA and reverse the IHT exemption removal for family farms via amendment to a Labour minority government's Budget and threaten to vote down the entire budget unless included

Except that its not going to be on their agenda by 2029.

The only reason its talked about today is its in the news today, come 2029 they'll have whatever priorities suit 2029 and not today's news.

Just like Labour screamed and screamed about the bedroom tax but once in office it wasn't their priority anymore.

At least half the LD seats are in rural areas and almost half LD voters are pensioners, it will be far more of an issue for them reversing the tractor tax and WFA cut than the bedroom tax will be for Labour now given the size of their majority. The LDs learnt their lesson from 2010-15 and will want more of a pound of flesh from any minority government before agreeing to support them.

Though Labour have managed to find huge payrises for their core voters such as train drivers and NHS GPs the Tories didn't even so. Reversing the bedroom tax was also never in Starmer's manifesto anyway

Interesting that Steve Baker said this evening that the Tories would never get anywhere until they start being serious and realise that such things as supporting the winter fuel payments for pensioners is unsustainable. I thought he was quite impressive.

Yes well if they lose all their pensioner core vote to the LDs and Reform the 2 remaining Tory MPs can be as serious as they like but nobody will be listening

HYUFD said:

Roger said:

HYUFD said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

HYUFD said:

david_herdson said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

OldKingCole said:

HYUFD said:

kinabalu said:

HYUFD said:

kinabalu said:

HYUFD said:

OldKingCole said:

HYUFD said:

RochdalePioneers said:

HYUFD said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

Yes, Labour under Corbyn had 150,000 more members than it does now under Starmer but it was the latter who won a general election.

It is not surprising more hardcore rightwingers have switched to Farage's Reform over the Tories, though in most polls the Tories are still ahead of Reform even if Reform have more members. Remember the main swing since July has been Labour to Reform, the Tories little changed. Some Tories would vote LD over Reform even if they would not join any party

As the Tories are on the back of historically their worst performance in the post Victorian era, I would have thought Reform syphoning off more from Labour than the Conservatives is scant relief for the remaining faithful. I believe you understand the damage working class hero and snake oil salesman Farage could do to the Labour Party but have missed that he has already done his work on your party.

Although to be fair I would have thought you would dovetail neatly into Reform. Afterall they do all the fun things you like. Elitism, Grammar schools, no inheritance tax, reducing the size of the state, privatisation of public services, fox hunting, repatriation of foreigners and the list continues. No hanging and flogging yet, although when Suella has her feet under the table who knows?

Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats on current polls purely as a result of Labour voters going Reform and FPTP even if the Tory vote is largely unchanged from July.

There is no doubt Reform are gaining, now on -32% higher in net favourability than either Labour on -35% or the Tories on -43%.

Kemi still has a higher net favourable on -31% compared to -34% for Farage and -36% for Starmer

https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/nigel-farage-reform-uk-now-has-more-members-than-the-conservative-party-qwd2wmcwc

I just don't understand how your brain works. You know politics. You are involved in politics. So you know as well as I do that the snapshot today *is not how people will vote in 4 years time*

The question is how the trends will play out. And the trends are moving away from you and towards Reform, on what feels like an exponential curve once you factor in that Reform now have all the money and the media attention.

"Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats". No, she won't. Which seats do you have in mind?

Electoral Calculus' average poll projection now has the Tories up 84 MPs to 205, Labour down 127 to 285, the LDs down 4 to 68 and Reform up 33 to 38 and the SNP up 7 to 16. Giving a hung parliament
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

Lab/LibDem coalition from the looks of it. If the LibDems are prepared to enter a coalition, of course.
Could take a centre-left Government through to 2034.

Of course, things will almost certainly change.

Indeed, though as the LDs oppose the tractor tax, oppose the winter fuel allowance cut and are more NIMBY on building in greenbelt land in the home counties could be quite some demands Sir Ed gives Sir Keir for his support

What is the tractor tax?

Labour hammering family farms with assets over £1 million with IHT which the LDs oppose

Unlikely to have tractors worth that much. And would that be IHT at half the normal rate with 10 years to pay it by any chance?

It would be IHT destroying family farms which have an average value of around £2 million.

Regardless of the policy value anyway the Tories, Reform, the LDs and SNP all oppose it so Starmer if he loses his majority either has to scrap it and the winter fuel allowance cut all the opposition parties also oppose or they all no confidence a Labour minority government and throw him out of office

By 2029 this will be old hat, and the big landowners, who are most affected, will have worked out deals with their accountants and solicitors.
The Winter Fuel Allowance will be long forgotten, as there will some directed form of support to the needy, not handouts for the likes of Big and myself.

No they won't, I live in a rural area and the loathing for this Labour government round here is unbelievable, rural areas will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with Labour and keeps the hated tractor tax.

Pensioners also will never forgive Labour either for their total betrayal, you even hear them at cafes whinging on Starmer's betrayal, they also will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with them and keeps the WFA cut.

Plus you have the employers and small businesses hammered by the NI for employers rise also furious with the government and Starmer and Reeves

I am with @OldKingCole on this

The universal WFP will not be reinstated, and there will be a very different set of problems and issues that will need innovative ways to resolve by 2029

Mel Stride has already said the triple lock is unaffordable and that will not be in the manifesto as it is unaffordable

To be honest, you should join reform as that is where your heart is and where they live, back in the 1950s, whereas the country has moved on and frankly I expect reform to become quite unpopular if they take Musk's money and side with Trump and his crazy ideas

In which case the Starmer government will be thrown out of office once it loses its majority as the LDs will hold the balance of power on current polls and want the universal WFP reinstated let alone Reform.

The Tories are a million miles from a majority too so Stride can say what he wants he won't be able to implement it without LD or Reform backing either

The Scots have a wonderful expression for you

You are just 'havering'

Look it up

It is just reality, the Tories, LDs, Reform and SNP would all back a no confidence vote in a Labour minority government unless it reverses the tractor tax and WFA cut. So unless Labour retains its majority at the next GE both those policies are doomed

You assume far too much there. The SNP will never (again) put the Tories in over Labour. The Lib Dems are very unlikely to with the Tories in their current state. And we can't have endless general elections so if it is a Con-/Lab-led govt choice then they'd go with Labour.

You don't need to No Confidence a minority government to get your preferred policies when you can oppose vote-by-vote.

That said, the Winter Fuel issue will be very old news by 2028/9.

The LDs if Kingmakers could simply restore the WFA and reverse the IHT exemption removal for family farms via amendment to a Labour minority government's Budget and threaten to vote down the entire budget unless included

Except that its not going to be on their agenda by 2029.

The only reason its talked about today is its in the news today, come 2029 they'll have whatever priorities suit 2029 and not today's news.

Just like Labour screamed and screamed about the bedroom tax but once in office it wasn't their priority anymore.

At least half the LD seats are in rural areas and almost half LD voters are pensioners, it will be far more of an issue for them reversing the tractor tax and WFA cut than the bedroom tax will be for Labour now given the size of their majority. The LDs learnt their lesson from 2010-15 and will want more of a pound of flesh from any minority government before agreeing to support them.

Though Labour have managed to find huge payrises for their core voters such as train drivers and NHS GPs the Tories didn't even so. Reversing the bedroom tax was also never in Starmer's manifesto anyway

Interesting that Steve Baker said this evening that the Tories would never get anywhere until they start being serious and realise that such things as supporting the winter fuel payments for pensioners is unsustainable. I thought he was quite impressive.

Yes well if they lose all their pensioner core vote to the LDs and Reform the 2 remaining Tory MPs can be as serious as they like but nobody will be listening

HYUFD said:

Roger said:

HYUFD said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

HYUFD said:

david_herdson said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

OldKingCole said:

HYUFD said:

kinabalu said:

HYUFD said:

kinabalu said:

HYUFD said:

OldKingCole said:

HYUFD said:

RochdalePioneers said:

HYUFD said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

Yes, Labour under Corbyn had 150,000 more members than it does now under Starmer but it was the latter who won a general election.

It is not surprising more hardcore rightwingers have switched to Farage's Reform over the Tories, though in most polls the Tories are still ahead of Reform even if Reform have more members. Remember the main swing since July has been Labour to Reform, the Tories little changed. Some Tories would vote LD over Reform even if they would not join any party

As the Tories are on the back of historically their worst performance in the post Victorian era, I would have thought Reform syphoning off more from Labour than the Conservatives is scant relief for the remaining faithful. I believe you understand the damage working class hero and snake oil salesman Farage could do to the Labour Party but have missed that he has already done his work on your party.

Although to be fair I would have thought you would dovetail neatly into Reform. Afterall they do all the fun things you like. Elitism, Grammar schools, no inheritance tax, reducing the size of the state, privatisation of public services, fox hunting, repatriation of foreigners and the list continues. No hanging and flogging yet, although when Suella has her feet under the table who knows?

Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats on current polls purely as a result of Labour voters going Reform and FPTP even if the Tory vote is largely unchanged from July.

There is no doubt Reform are gaining, now on -32% higher in net favourability than either Labour on -35% or the Tories on -43%.

Kemi still has a higher net favourable on -31% compared to -34% for Farage and -36% for Starmer

https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/nigel-farage-reform-uk-now-has-more-members-than-the-conservative-party-qwd2wmcwc

I just don't understand how your brain works. You know politics. You are involved in politics. So you know as well as I do that the snapshot today *is not how people will vote in 4 years time*

The question is how the trends will play out. And the trends are moving away from you and towards Reform, on what feels like an exponential curve once you factor in that Reform now have all the money and the media attention.

"Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats". No, she won't. Which seats do you have in mind?

Electoral Calculus' average poll projection now has the Tories up 84 MPs to 205, Labour down 127 to 285, the LDs down 4 to 68 and Reform up 33 to 38 and the SNP up 7 to 16. Giving a hung parliament
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

Lab/LibDem coalition from the looks of it. If the LibDems are prepared to enter a coalition, of course.
Could take a centre-left Government through to 2034.

Of course, things will almost certainly change.

Indeed, though as the LDs oppose the tractor tax, oppose the winter fuel allowance cut and are more NIMBY on building in greenbelt land in the home counties could be quite some demands Sir Ed gives Sir Keir for his support

What is the tractor tax?

Labour hammering family farms with assets over £1 million with IHT which the LDs oppose

Unlikely to have tractors worth that much. And would that be IHT at half the normal rate with 10 years to pay it by any chance?

It would be IHT destroying family farms which have an average value of around £2 million.

Regardless of the policy value anyway the Tories, Reform, the LDs and SNP all oppose it so Starmer if he loses his majority either has to scrap it and the winter fuel allowance cut all the opposition parties also oppose or they all no confidence a Labour minority government and throw him out of office

By 2029 this will be old hat, and the big landowners, who are most affected, will have worked out deals with their accountants and solicitors.
The Winter Fuel Allowance will be long forgotten, as there will some directed form of support to the needy, not handouts for the likes of Big and myself.

No they won't, I live in a rural area and the loathing for this Labour government round here is unbelievable, rural areas will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with Labour and keeps the hated tractor tax.

Pensioners also will never forgive Labour either for their total betrayal, you even hear them at cafes whinging on Starmer's betrayal, they also will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with them and keeps the WFA cut.

Plus you have the employers and small businesses hammered by the NI for employers rise also furious with the government and Starmer and Reeves

I am with @OldKingCole on this

The universal WFP will not be reinstated, and there will be a very different set of problems and issues that will need innovative ways to resolve by 2029

Mel Stride has already said the triple lock is unaffordable and that will not be in the manifesto as it is unaffordable

To be honest, you should join reform as that is where your heart is and where they live, back in the 1950s, whereas the country has moved on and frankly I expect reform to become quite unpopular if they take Musk's money and side with Trump and his crazy ideas

In which case the Starmer government will be thrown out of office once it loses its majority as the LDs will hold the balance of power on current polls and want the universal WFP reinstated let alone Reform.

The Tories are a million miles from a majority too so Stride can say what he wants he won't be able to implement it without LD or Reform backing either

The Scots have a wonderful expression for you

You are just 'havering'

Look it up

It is just reality, the Tories, LDs, Reform and SNP would all back a no confidence vote in a Labour minority government unless it reverses the tractor tax and WFA cut. So unless Labour retains its majority at the next GE both those policies are doomed

You assume far too much there. The SNP will never (again) put the Tories in over Labour. The Lib Dems are very unlikely to with the Tories in their current state. And we can't have endless general elections so if it is a Con-/Lab-led govt choice then they'd go with Labour.

You don't need to No Confidence a minority government to get your preferred policies when you can oppose vote-by-vote.

That said, the Winter Fuel issue will be very old news by 2028/9.

The LDs if Kingmakers could simply restore the WFA and reverse the IHT exemption removal for family farms via amendment to a Labour minority government's Budget and threaten to vote down the entire budget unless included

Except that its not going to be on their agenda by 2029.

The only reason its talked about today is its in the news today, come 2029 they'll have whatever priorities suit 2029 and not today's news.

Just like Labour screamed and screamed about the bedroom tax but once in office it wasn't their priority anymore.

At least half the LD seats are in rural areas and almost half LD voters are pensioners, it will be far more of an issue for them reversing the tractor tax and WFA cut than the bedroom tax will be for Labour now given the size of their majority. The LDs learnt their lesson from 2010-15 and will want more of a pound of flesh from any minority government before agreeing to support them.

Though Labour have managed to find huge payrises for their core voters such as train drivers and NHS GPs the Tories didn't even so. Reversing the bedroom tax was also never in Starmer's manifesto anyway

Interesting that Steve Baker said this evening that the Tories would never get anywhere until they start being serious and realise that such things as supporting the winter fuel payments for pensioners is unsustainable. I thought he was quite impressive.

Yes well if they lose all their pensioner core vote to the LDs and Reform the 2 remaining Tory MPs can be as serious as they like but nobody will be listening

Steve Baker is correct and you simply are stuck in reform

On another topic. Do you know a Welsh musician called Karl Jenkins? I worked with him and his partner Mike Ratledge many times. He was my first choice for composing jingles particularly for cars and he was super cool.

What I didn't know till this evening is that he's now been knighted and has written the most popular piece of classical music written by a living composer. I'm shocked!

Jeez, Roger.
I thought everyone knows The Armed Man.

Sean_F said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

ohnotnow said:

Malmesbury said:

Gallowgate said:

@HYUFD is continuously fighting the last battle

… of the war between the Beaker People and their antecedents, probably.

I think you'll find that a snap Opinium poll from ~2000BC showed that the Beaker People were on track to win the Bronze Age. And thus it came to pass.

...

Oh, hang on.

For gods sake don't give Reform any ideas.

Based on mitochondrial DNA, the arrival of the Beaker People was the last time migrants were properly bad news for the indigenous people of the British Isles. Somewhere north of 95% of the indigenous population were dead within a generation of the arrival of the Beaker People. Probably due to similar reasons for the Native Americans being wiped out - disease to which we had no immunity.

Though I think you said that archaeological evidence suggests the Great Heathen Army was as brutal as contemporary chroniclers claimed.

Roger said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Roger said:

HYUFD said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

HYUFD said:

david_herdson said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

OldKingCole said:

HYUFD said:

kinabalu said:

HYUFD said:

kinabalu said:

HYUFD said:

OldKingCole said:

HYUFD said:

RochdalePioneers said:

HYUFD said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

Yes, Labour under Corbyn had 150,000 more members than it does now under Starmer but it was the latter who won a general election.

It is not surprising more hardcore rightwingers have switched to Farage's Reform over the Tories, though in most polls the Tories are still ahead of Reform even if Reform have more members. Remember the main swing since July has been Labour to Reform, the Tories little changed. Some Tories would vote LD over Reform even if they would not join any party

As the Tories are on the back of historically their worst performance in the post Victorian era, I would have thought Reform syphoning off more from Labour than the Conservatives is scant relief for the remaining faithful. I believe you understand the damage working class hero and snake oil salesman Farage could do to the Labour Party but have missed that he has already done his work on your party.

Although to be fair I would have thought you would dovetail neatly into Reform. Afterall they do all the fun things you like. Elitism, Grammar schools, no inheritance tax, reducing the size of the state, privatisation of public services, fox hunting, repatriation of foreigners and the list continues. No hanging and flogging yet, although when Suella has her feet under the table who knows?

Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats on current polls purely as a result of Labour voters going Reform and FPTP even if the Tory vote is largely unchanged from July.

There is no doubt Reform are gaining, now on -32% higher in net favourability than either Labour on -35% or the Tories on -43%.

Kemi still has a higher net favourable on -31% compared to -34% for Farage and -36% for Starmer

https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/nigel-farage-reform-uk-now-has-more-members-than-the-conservative-party-qwd2wmcwc

I just don't understand how your brain works. You know politics. You are involved in politics. So you know as well as I do that the snapshot today *is not how people will vote in 4 years time*

The question is how the trends will play out. And the trends are moving away from you and towards Reform, on what feels like an exponential curve once you factor in that Reform now have all the money and the media attention.

"Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats". No, she won't. Which seats do you have in mind?

Electoral Calculus' average poll projection now has the Tories up 84 MPs to 205, Labour down 127 to 285, the LDs down 4 to 68 and Reform up 33 to 38 and the SNP up 7 to 16. Giving a hung parliament
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

Lab/LibDem coalition from the looks of it. If the LibDems are prepared to enter a coalition, of course.
Could take a centre-left Government through to 2034.

Of course, things will almost certainly change.

Indeed, though as the LDs oppose the tractor tax, oppose the winter fuel allowance cut and are more NIMBY on building in greenbelt land in the home counties could be quite some demands Sir Ed gives Sir Keir for his support

What is the tractor tax?

Labour hammering family farms with assets over £1 million with IHT which the LDs oppose

Unlikely to have tractors worth that much. And would that be IHT at half the normal rate with 10 years to pay it by any chance?

It would be IHT destroying family farms which have an average value of around £2 million.

Regardless of the policy value anyway the Tories, Reform, the LDs and SNP all oppose it so Starmer if he loses his majority either has to scrap it and the winter fuel allowance cut all the opposition parties also oppose or they all no confidence a Labour minority government and throw him out of office

By 2029 this will be old hat, and the big landowners, who are most affected, will have worked out deals with their accountants and solicitors.
The Winter Fuel Allowance will be long forgotten, as there will some directed form of support to the needy, not handouts for the likes of Big and myself.

No they won't, I live in a rural area and the loathing for this Labour government round here is unbelievable, rural areas will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with Labour and keeps the hated tractor tax.

Pensioners also will never forgive Labour either for their total betrayal, you even hear them at cafes whinging on Starmer's betrayal, they also will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with them and keeps the WFA cut.

Plus you have the employers and small businesses hammered by the NI for employers rise also furious with the government and Starmer and Reeves

I am with @OldKingCole on this

The universal WFP will not be reinstated, and there will be a very different set of problems and issues that will need innovative ways to resolve by 2029

Mel Stride has already said the triple lock is unaffordable and that will not be in the manifesto as it is unaffordable

To be honest, you should join reform as that is where your heart is and where they live, back in the 1950s, whereas the country has moved on and frankly I expect reform to become quite unpopular if they take Musk's money and side with Trump and his crazy ideas

In which case the Starmer government will be thrown out of office once it loses its majority as the LDs will hold the balance of power on current polls and want the universal WFP reinstated let alone Reform.

The Tories are a million miles from a majority too so Stride can say what he wants he won't be able to implement it without LD or Reform backing either

The Scots have a wonderful expression for you

You are just 'havering'

Look it up

It is just reality, the Tories, LDs, Reform and SNP would all back a no confidence vote in a Labour minority government unless it reverses the tractor tax and WFA cut. So unless Labour retains its majority at the next GE both those policies are doomed

You assume far too much there. The SNP will never (again) put the Tories in over Labour. The Lib Dems are very unlikely to with the Tories in their current state. And we can't have endless general elections so if it is a Con-/Lab-led govt choice then they'd go with Labour.

You don't need to No Confidence a minority government to get your preferred policies when you can oppose vote-by-vote.

That said, the Winter Fuel issue will be very old news by 2028/9.

The LDs if Kingmakers could simply restore the WFA and reverse the IHT exemption removal for family farms via amendment to a Labour minority government's Budget and threaten to vote down the entire budget unless included

Except that its not going to be on their agenda by 2029.

The only reason its talked about today is its in the news today, come 2029 they'll have whatever priorities suit 2029 and not today's news.

Just like Labour screamed and screamed about the bedroom tax but once in office it wasn't their priority anymore.

At least half the LD seats are in rural areas and almost half LD voters are pensioners, it will be far more of an issue for them reversing the tractor tax and WFA cut than the bedroom tax will be for Labour now given the size of their majority. The LDs learnt their lesson from 2010-15 and will want more of a pound of flesh from any minority government before agreeing to support them.

Though Labour have managed to find huge payrises for their core voters such as train drivers and NHS GPs the Tories didn't even so. Reversing the bedroom tax was also never in Starmer's manifesto anyway

Interesting that Steve Baker said this evening that the Tories would never get anywhere until they start being serious and realise that such things as supporting the winter fuel payments for pensioners is unsustainable. I thought he was quite impressive.

Yes well if they lose all their pensioner core vote to the LDs and Reform the 2 remaining Tory MPs can be as serious as they like but nobody will be listening

HYUFD said:

Roger said:

HYUFD said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

HYUFD said:

david_herdson said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

OldKingCole said:

HYUFD said:

kinabalu said:

HYUFD said:

kinabalu said:

HYUFD said:

OldKingCole said:

HYUFD said:

RochdalePioneers said:

HYUFD said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

Yes, Labour under Corbyn had 150,000 more members than it does now under Starmer but it was the latter who won a general election.

It is not surprising more hardcore rightwingers have switched to Farage's Reform over the Tories, though in most polls the Tories are still ahead of Reform even if Reform have more members. Remember the main swing since July has been Labour to Reform, the Tories little changed. Some Tories would vote LD over Reform even if they would not join any party

As the Tories are on the back of historically their worst performance in the post Victorian era, I would have thought Reform syphoning off more from Labour than the Conservatives is scant relief for the remaining faithful. I believe you understand the damage working class hero and snake oil salesman Farage could do to the Labour Party but have missed that he has already done his work on your party.

Although to be fair I would have thought you would dovetail neatly into Reform. Afterall they do all the fun things you like. Elitism, Grammar schools, no inheritance tax, reducing the size of the state, privatisation of public services, fox hunting, repatriation of foreigners and the list continues. No hanging and flogging yet, although when Suella has her feet under the table who knows?

Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats on current polls purely as a result of Labour voters going Reform and FPTP even if the Tory vote is largely unchanged from July.

There is no doubt Reform are gaining, now on -32% higher in net favourability than either Labour on -35% or the Tories on -43%.

Kemi still has a higher net favourable on -31% compared to -34% for Farage and -36% for Starmer

https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/nigel-farage-reform-uk-now-has-more-members-than-the-conservative-party-qwd2wmcwc

I just don't understand how your brain works. You know politics. You are involved in politics. So you know as well as I do that the snapshot today *is not how people will vote in 4 years time*

The question is how the trends will play out. And the trends are moving away from you and towards Reform, on what feels like an exponential curve once you factor in that Reform now have all the money and the media attention.

"Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats". No, she won't. Which seats do you have in mind?

Electoral Calculus' average poll projection now has the Tories up 84 MPs to 205, Labour down 127 to 285, the LDs down 4 to 68 and Reform up 33 to 38 and the SNP up 7 to 16. Giving a hung parliament
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

Lab/LibDem coalition from the looks of it. If the LibDems are prepared to enter a coalition, of course.
Could take a centre-left Government through to 2034.

Of course, things will almost certainly change.

Indeed, though as the LDs oppose the tractor tax, oppose the winter fuel allowance cut and are more NIMBY on building in greenbelt land in the home counties could be quite some demands Sir Ed gives Sir Keir for his support

What is the tractor tax?

Labour hammering family farms with assets over £1 million with IHT which the LDs oppose

Unlikely to have tractors worth that much. And would that be IHT at half the normal rate with 10 years to pay it by any chance?

It would be IHT destroying family farms which have an average value of around £2 million.

Regardless of the policy value anyway the Tories, Reform, the LDs and SNP all oppose it so Starmer if he loses his majority either has to scrap it and the winter fuel allowance cut all the opposition parties also oppose or they all no confidence a Labour minority government and throw him out of office

By 2029 this will be old hat, and the big landowners, who are most affected, will have worked out deals with their accountants and solicitors.
The Winter Fuel Allowance will be long forgotten, as there will some directed form of support to the needy, not handouts for the likes of Big and myself.

No they won't, I live in a rural area and the loathing for this Labour government round here is unbelievable, rural areas will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with Labour and keeps the hated tractor tax.

Pensioners also will never forgive Labour either for their total betrayal, you even hear them at cafes whinging on Starmer's betrayal, they also will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with them and keeps the WFA cut.

Plus you have the employers and small businesses hammered by the NI for employers rise also furious with the government and Starmer and Reeves

I am with @OldKingCole on this

The universal WFP will not be reinstated, and there will be a very different set of problems and issues that will need innovative ways to resolve by 2029

Mel Stride has already said the triple lock is unaffordable and that will not be in the manifesto as it is unaffordable

To be honest, you should join reform as that is where your heart is and where they live, back in the 1950s, whereas the country has moved on and frankly I expect reform to become quite unpopular if they take Musk's money and side with Trump and his crazy ideas

In which case the Starmer government will be thrown out of office once it loses its majority as the LDs will hold the balance of power on current polls and want the universal WFP reinstated let alone Reform.

The Tories are a million miles from a majority too so Stride can say what he wants he won't be able to implement it without LD or Reform backing either

The Scots have a wonderful expression for you

You are just 'havering'

Look it up

It is just reality, the Tories, LDs, Reform and SNP would all back a no confidence vote in a Labour minority government unless it reverses the tractor tax and WFA cut. So unless Labour retains its majority at the next GE both those policies are doomed

You assume far too much there. The SNP will never (again) put the Tories in over Labour. The Lib Dems are very unlikely to with the Tories in their current state. And we can't have endless general elections so if it is a Con-/Lab-led govt choice then they'd go with Labour.

You don't need to No Confidence a minority government to get your preferred policies when you can oppose vote-by-vote.

That said, the Winter Fuel issue will be very old news by 2028/9.

The LDs if Kingmakers could simply restore the WFA and reverse the IHT exemption removal for family farms via amendment to a Labour minority government's Budget and threaten to vote down the entire budget unless included

Except that its not going to be on their agenda by 2029.

The only reason its talked about today is its in the news today, come 2029 they'll have whatever priorities suit 2029 and not today's news.

Just like Labour screamed and screamed about the bedroom tax but once in office it wasn't their priority anymore.

At least half the LD seats are in rural areas and almost half LD voters are pensioners, it will be far more of an issue for them reversing the tractor tax and WFA cut than the bedroom tax will be for Labour now given the size of their majority. The LDs learnt their lesson from 2010-15 and will want more of a pound of flesh from any minority government before agreeing to support them.

Though Labour have managed to find huge payrises for their core voters such as train drivers and NHS GPs the Tories didn't even so. Reversing the bedroom tax was also never in Starmer's manifesto anyway

Interesting that Steve Baker said this evening that the Tories would never get anywhere until they start being serious and realise that such things as supporting the winter fuel payments for pensioners is unsustainable. I thought he was quite impressive.

Yes well if they lose all their pensioner core vote to the LDs and Reform the 2 remaining Tory MPs can be as serious as they like but nobody will be listening

HYUFD said:

Roger said:

HYUFD said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

HYUFD said:

david_herdson said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

OldKingCole said:

HYUFD said:

kinabalu said:

HYUFD said:

kinabalu said:

HYUFD said:

OldKingCole said:

HYUFD said:

RochdalePioneers said:

HYUFD said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

Yes, Labour under Corbyn had 150,000 more members than it does now under Starmer but it was the latter who won a general election.

It is not surprising more hardcore rightwingers have switched to Farage's Reform over the Tories, though in most polls the Tories are still ahead of Reform even if Reform have more members. Remember the main swing since July has been Labour to Reform, the Tories little changed. Some Tories would vote LD over Reform even if they would not join any party

As the Tories are on the back of historically their worst performance in the post Victorian era, I would have thought Reform syphoning off more from Labour than the Conservatives is scant relief for the remaining faithful. I believe you understand the damage working class hero and snake oil salesman Farage could do to the Labour Party but have missed that he has already done his work on your party.

Although to be fair I would have thought you would dovetail neatly into Reform. Afterall they do all the fun things you like. Elitism, Grammar schools, no inheritance tax, reducing the size of the state, privatisation of public services, fox hunting, repatriation of foreigners and the list continues. No hanging and flogging yet, although when Suella has her feet under the table who knows?

Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats on current polls purely as a result of Labour voters going Reform and FPTP even if the Tory vote is largely unchanged from July.

There is no doubt Reform are gaining, now on -32% higher in net favourability than either Labour on -35% or the Tories on -43%.

Kemi still has a higher net favourable on -31% compared to -34% for Farage and -36% for Starmer

https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/nigel-farage-reform-uk-now-has-more-members-than-the-conservative-party-qwd2wmcwc

I just don't understand how your brain works. You know politics. You are involved in politics. So you know as well as I do that the snapshot today *is not how people will vote in 4 years time*

The question is how the trends will play out. And the trends are moving away from you and towards Reform, on what feels like an exponential curve once you factor in that Reform now have all the money and the media attention.

"Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats". No, she won't. Which seats do you have in mind?

Electoral Calculus' average poll projection now has the Tories up 84 MPs to 205, Labour down 127 to 285, the LDs down 4 to 68 and Reform up 33 to 38 and the SNP up 7 to 16. Giving a hung parliament
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

Lab/LibDem coalition from the looks of it. If the LibDems are prepared to enter a coalition, of course.
Could take a centre-left Government through to 2034.

Of course, things will almost certainly change.

Indeed, though as the LDs oppose the tractor tax, oppose the winter fuel allowance cut and are more NIMBY on building in greenbelt land in the home counties could be quite some demands Sir Ed gives Sir Keir for his support

What is the tractor tax?

Labour hammering family farms with assets over £1 million with IHT which the LDs oppose

Unlikely to have tractors worth that much. And would that be IHT at half the normal rate with 10 years to pay it by any chance?

It would be IHT destroying family farms which have an average value of around £2 million.

Regardless of the policy value anyway the Tories, Reform, the LDs and SNP all oppose it so Starmer if he loses his majority either has to scrap it and the winter fuel allowance cut all the opposition parties also oppose or they all no confidence a Labour minority government and throw him out of office

By 2029 this will be old hat, and the big landowners, who are most affected, will have worked out deals with their accountants and solicitors.
The Winter Fuel Allowance will be long forgotten, as there will some directed form of support to the needy, not handouts for the likes of Big and myself.

No they won't, I live in a rural area and the loathing for this Labour government round here is unbelievable, rural areas will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with Labour and keeps the hated tractor tax.

Pensioners also will never forgive Labour either for their total betrayal, you even hear them at cafes whinging on Starmer's betrayal, they also will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with them and keeps the WFA cut.

Plus you have the employers and small businesses hammered by the NI for employers rise also furious with the government and Starmer and Reeves

I am with @OldKingCole on this

The universal WFP will not be reinstated, and there will be a very different set of problems and issues that will need innovative ways to resolve by 2029

Mel Stride has already said the triple lock is unaffordable and that will not be in the manifesto as it is unaffordable

To be honest, you should join reform as that is where your heart is and where they live, back in the 1950s, whereas the country has moved on and frankly I expect reform to become quite unpopular if they take Musk's money and side with Trump and his crazy ideas

In which case the Starmer government will be thrown out of office once it loses its majority as the LDs will hold the balance of power on current polls and want the universal WFP reinstated let alone Reform.

The Tories are a million miles from a majority too so Stride can say what he wants he won't be able to implement it without LD or Reform backing either

The Scots have a wonderful expression for you

You are just 'havering'

Look it up

It is just reality, the Tories, LDs, Reform and SNP would all back a no confidence vote in a Labour minority government unless it reverses the tractor tax and WFA cut. So unless Labour retains its majority at the next GE both those policies are doomed

You assume far too much there. The SNP will never (again) put the Tories in over Labour. The Lib Dems are very unlikely to with the Tories in their current state. And we can't have endless general elections so if it is a Con-/Lab-led govt choice then they'd go with Labour.

You don't need to No Confidence a minority government to get your preferred policies when you can oppose vote-by-vote.

That said, the Winter Fuel issue will be very old news by 2028/9.

The LDs if Kingmakers could simply restore the WFA and reverse the IHT exemption removal for family farms via amendment to a Labour minority government's Budget and threaten to vote down the entire budget unless included

Except that its not going to be on their agenda by 2029.

The only reason its talked about today is its in the news today, come 2029 they'll have whatever priorities suit 2029 and not today's news.

Just like Labour screamed and screamed about the bedroom tax but once in office it wasn't their priority anymore.

At least half the LD seats are in rural areas and almost half LD voters are pensioners, it will be far more of an issue for them reversing the tractor tax and WFA cut than the bedroom tax will be for Labour now given the size of their majority. The LDs learnt their lesson from 2010-15 and will want more of a pound of flesh from any minority government before agreeing to support them.

Though Labour have managed to find huge payrises for their core voters such as train drivers and NHS GPs the Tories didn't even so. Reversing the bedroom tax was also never in Starmer's manifesto anyway

Interesting that Steve Baker said this evening that the Tories would never get anywhere until they start being serious and realise that such things as supporting the winter fuel payments for pensioners is unsustainable. I thought he was quite impressive.

Yes well if they lose all their pensioner core vote to the LDs and Reform the 2 remaining Tory MPs can be as serious as they like but nobody will be listening

Steve Baker is correct and you simply are stuck in reform

On another topic. Do you know a Welsh musician called Karl Jenkins? I worked with him and his partner Mike Ratledge many times. He was my first choice for composing jingles particularly for cars and he was super cool.

What I didn't know till this evening is that he's now been knighted and has written the most popular piece of classical music written by a living composer. I'm shocked!

Cookie said:

rcs1000 said:

Cookie said:

rcs1000 said:

Cookie said:

kinabalu said:

Driver said:

malcolmg said:

kinabalu said:

williamglenn said:

LostPassword said:

The New York Times is reporting that Ukraine is nearly out of the ATACMs missiles supplied by the US, and Britain doesn't have many Storm Shadow missiles left.

The failure of Western countries to produce key armaments to supply to Ukraine is stark.

The failure of Biden to call Putin's bluff in 2022 instead of closing the embassy and telling the world that Ukraine would fall in three days continues to have dreadful consequences.

That's not washing. Biden supported Ukraine whilst being mindful of the escalation risk. You can quibble on the margins, eg too risk averse?, but in no way will a Russian victory, if it happens, be on his head.

he was wishy washy and did the absolute minimum, useless.

Perhaps even short of the absolute minimum.

Don't be ridiculous.

I don't think that's ridiculous. With even half-hearted American support Ukraine could have prevailed. But it suited America to have a stalemate, not least due to its impact on POO.

I don't think this is true at all.

I think Biden would much rather that Ukraine had prevailed, because it would have led to the downfall of Putin, which would hugely of been in his interests.

It's more accurate to say - as @williamglenn does - that Biden was excessively concerned about the risks of escalation, and overestimated Russia's strength. And that was a mistake.

A mistake, for what it's worth, that many others made too.

I'm really not sure it is in America's interests for Putin to be replaced. Tge chances of Putin being replaced with someone who is better for America seem quite a long way lessthan 50%.

Again, I don't think that's true at all.

Putin's Russia has been a constant thorn in the West. In Poland, it spent a fortune on supporting groups to get fracking banned, for example. It has constantly tried to increase division in the West.

Those actions have, historically, had no consequences.

Any new regime in Moscow is going to be concerned primarily with getting sanctions removed and rebuilding the Russian economy. On the hierarchy of needs for any regime, getting the people fed and less likely to evict you is massively more important than stirring up trouble abroad.

I'd like to think that's so. But alternatively it could decide to pursue whatever mad bastardry it happens to have on its agenda while it has the chance? Worldwide, the record of benign regimes replacing dictators is at best mixed.

bondegezou said:

Roger said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Roger said:

HYUFD said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

HYUFD said:

david_herdson said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

OldKingCole said:

HYUFD said:

kinabalu said:

HYUFD said:

kinabalu said:

HYUFD said:

OldKingCole said:

HYUFD said:

RochdalePioneers said:

HYUFD said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

Yes, Labour under Corbyn had 150,000 more members than it does now under Starmer but it was the latter who won a general election.

It is not surprising more hardcore rightwingers have switched to Farage's Reform over the Tories, though in most polls the Tories are still ahead of Reform even if Reform have more members. Remember the main swing since July has been Labour to Reform, the Tories little changed. Some Tories would vote LD over Reform even if they would not join any party

As the Tories are on the back of historically their worst performance in the post Victorian era, I would have thought Reform syphoning off more from Labour than the Conservatives is scant relief for the remaining faithful. I believe you understand the damage working class hero and snake oil salesman Farage could do to the Labour Party but have missed that he has already done his work on your party.

Although to be fair I would have thought you would dovetail neatly into Reform. Afterall they do all the fun things you like. Elitism, Grammar schools, no inheritance tax, reducing the size of the state, privatisation of public services, fox hunting, repatriation of foreigners and the list continues. No hanging and flogging yet, although when Suella has her feet under the table who knows?

Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats on current polls purely as a result of Labour voters going Reform and FPTP even if the Tory vote is largely unchanged from July.

There is no doubt Reform are gaining, now on -32% higher in net favourability than either Labour on -35% or the Tories on -43%.

Kemi still has a higher net favourable on -31% compared to -34% for Farage and -36% for Starmer

https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/nigel-farage-reform-uk-now-has-more-members-than-the-conservative-party-qwd2wmcwc

I just don't understand how your brain works. You know politics. You are involved in politics. So you know as well as I do that the snapshot today *is not how people will vote in 4 years time*

The question is how the trends will play out. And the trends are moving away from you and towards Reform, on what feels like an exponential curve once you factor in that Reform now have all the money and the media attention.

"Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats". No, she won't. Which seats do you have in mind?

Electoral Calculus' average poll projection now has the Tories up 84 MPs to 205, Labour down 127 to 285, the LDs down 4 to 68 and Reform up 33 to 38 and the SNP up 7 to 16. Giving a hung parliament
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

Lab/LibDem coalition from the looks of it. If the LibDems are prepared to enter a coalition, of course.
Could take a centre-left Government through to 2034.

Of course, things will almost certainly change.

Indeed, though as the LDs oppose the tractor tax, oppose the winter fuel allowance cut and are more NIMBY on building in greenbelt land in the home counties could be quite some demands Sir Ed gives Sir Keir for his support

What is the tractor tax?

Labour hammering family farms with assets over £1 million with IHT which the LDs oppose

Unlikely to have tractors worth that much. And would that be IHT at half the normal rate with 10 years to pay it by any chance?

It would be IHT destroying family farms which have an average value of around £2 million.

Regardless of the policy value anyway the Tories, Reform, the LDs and SNP all oppose it so Starmer if he loses his majority either has to scrap it and the winter fuel allowance cut all the opposition parties also oppose or they all no confidence a Labour minority government and throw him out of office

By 2029 this will be old hat, and the big landowners, who are most affected, will have worked out deals with their accountants and solicitors.
The Winter Fuel Allowance will be long forgotten, as there will some directed form of support to the needy, not handouts for the likes of Big and myself.

No they won't, I live in a rural area and the loathing for this Labour government round here is unbelievable, rural areas will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with Labour and keeps the hated tractor tax.

Pensioners also will never forgive Labour either for their total betrayal, you even hear them at cafes whinging on Starmer's betrayal, they also will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with them and keeps the WFA cut.

Plus you have the employers and small businesses hammered by the NI for employers rise also furious with the government and Starmer and Reeves

I am with @OldKingCole on this

The universal WFP will not be reinstated, and there will be a very different set of problems and issues that will need innovative ways to resolve by 2029

Mel Stride has already said the triple lock is unaffordable and that will not be in the manifesto as it is unaffordable

To be honest, you should join reform as that is where your heart is and where they live, back in the 1950s, whereas the country has moved on and frankly I expect reform to become quite unpopular if they take Musk's money and side with Trump and his crazy ideas

In which case the Starmer government will be thrown out of office once it loses its majority as the LDs will hold the balance of power on current polls and want the universal WFP reinstated let alone Reform.

The Tories are a million miles from a majority too so Stride can say what he wants he won't be able to implement it without LD or Reform backing either

The Scots have a wonderful expression for you

You are just 'havering'

Look it up

It is just reality, the Tories, LDs, Reform and SNP would all back a no confidence vote in a Labour minority government unless it reverses the tractor tax and WFA cut. So unless Labour retains its majority at the next GE both those policies are doomed

You assume far too much there. The SNP will never (again) put the Tories in over Labour. The Lib Dems are very unlikely to with the Tories in their current state. And we can't have endless general elections so if it is a Con-/Lab-led govt choice then they'd go with Labour.

You don't need to No Confidence a minority government to get your preferred policies when you can oppose vote-by-vote.

That said, the Winter Fuel issue will be very old news by 2028/9.

The LDs if Kingmakers could simply restore the WFA and reverse the IHT exemption removal for family farms via amendment to a Labour minority government's Budget and threaten to vote down the entire budget unless included

Except that its not going to be on their agenda by 2029.

The only reason its talked about today is its in the news today, come 2029 they'll have whatever priorities suit 2029 and not today's news.

Just like Labour screamed and screamed about the bedroom tax but once in office it wasn't their priority anymore.

At least half the LD seats are in rural areas and almost half LD voters are pensioners, it will be far more of an issue for them reversing the tractor tax and WFA cut than the bedroom tax will be for Labour now given the size of their majority. The LDs learnt their lesson from 2010-15 and will want more of a pound of flesh from any minority government before agreeing to support them.

Though Labour have managed to find huge payrises for their core voters such as train drivers and NHS GPs the Tories didn't even so. Reversing the bedroom tax was also never in Starmer's manifesto anyway

Interesting that Steve Baker said this evening that the Tories would never get anywhere until they start being serious and realise that such things as supporting the winter fuel payments for pensioners is unsustainable. I thought he was quite impressive.

Yes well if they lose all their pensioner core vote to the LDs and Reform the 2 remaining Tory MPs can be as serious as they like but nobody will be listening

HYUFD said:

Roger said:

HYUFD said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

HYUFD said:

david_herdson said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

OldKingCole said:

HYUFD said:

kinabalu said:

HYUFD said:

kinabalu said:

HYUFD said:

OldKingCole said:

HYUFD said:

RochdalePioneers said:

HYUFD said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

Yes, Labour under Corbyn had 150,000 more members than it does now under Starmer but it was the latter who won a general election.

It is not surprising more hardcore rightwingers have switched to Farage's Reform over the Tories, though in most polls the Tories are still ahead of Reform even if Reform have more members. Remember the main swing since July has been Labour to Reform, the Tories little changed. Some Tories would vote LD over Reform even if they would not join any party

As the Tories are on the back of historically their worst performance in the post Victorian era, I would have thought Reform syphoning off more from Labour than the Conservatives is scant relief for the remaining faithful. I believe you understand the damage working class hero and snake oil salesman Farage could do to the Labour Party but have missed that he has already done his work on your party.

Although to be fair I would have thought you would dovetail neatly into Reform. Afterall they do all the fun things you like. Elitism, Grammar schools, no inheritance tax, reducing the size of the state, privatisation of public services, fox hunting, repatriation of foreigners and the list continues. No hanging and flogging yet, although when Suella has her feet under the table who knows?

Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats on current polls purely as a result of Labour voters going Reform and FPTP even if the Tory vote is largely unchanged from July.

There is no doubt Reform are gaining, now on -32% higher in net favourability than either Labour on -35% or the Tories on -43%.

Kemi still has a higher net favourable on -31% compared to -34% for Farage and -36% for Starmer

https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/nigel-farage-reform-uk-now-has-more-members-than-the-conservative-party-qwd2wmcwc

I just don't understand how your brain works. You know politics. You are involved in politics. So you know as well as I do that the snapshot today *is not how people will vote in 4 years time*

The question is how the trends will play out. And the trends are moving away from you and towards Reform, on what feels like an exponential curve once you factor in that Reform now have all the money and the media attention.

"Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats". No, she won't. Which seats do you have in mind?

Electoral Calculus' average poll projection now has the Tories up 84 MPs to 205, Labour down 127 to 285, the LDs down 4 to 68 and Reform up 33 to 38 and the SNP up 7 to 16. Giving a hung parliament
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

Lab/LibDem coalition from the looks of it. If the LibDems are prepared to enter a coalition, of course.
Could take a centre-left Government through to 2034.

Of course, things will almost certainly change.

Indeed, though as the LDs oppose the tractor tax, oppose the winter fuel allowance cut and are more NIMBY on building in greenbelt land in the home counties could be quite some demands Sir Ed gives Sir Keir for his support

What is the tractor tax?

Labour hammering family farms with assets over £1 million with IHT which the LDs oppose

Unlikely to have tractors worth that much. And would that be IHT at half the normal rate with 10 years to pay it by any chance?

It would be IHT destroying family farms which have an average value of around £2 million.

Regardless of the policy value anyway the Tories, Reform, the LDs and SNP all oppose it so Starmer if he loses his majority either has to scrap it and the winter fuel allowance cut all the opposition parties also oppose or they all no confidence a Labour minority government and throw him out of office

By 2029 this will be old hat, and the big landowners, who are most affected, will have worked out deals with their accountants and solicitors.
The Winter Fuel Allowance will be long forgotten, as there will some directed form of support to the needy, not handouts for the likes of Big and myself.

No they won't, I live in a rural area and the loathing for this Labour government round here is unbelievable, rural areas will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with Labour and keeps the hated tractor tax.

Pensioners also will never forgive Labour either for their total betrayal, you even hear them at cafes whinging on Starmer's betrayal, they also will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with them and keeps the WFA cut.

Plus you have the employers and small businesses hammered by the NI for employers rise also furious with the government and Starmer and Reeves

I am with @OldKingCole on this

The universal WFP will not be reinstated, and there will be a very different set of problems and issues that will need innovative ways to resolve by 2029

Mel Stride has already said the triple lock is unaffordable and that will not be in the manifesto as it is unaffordable

To be honest, you should join reform as that is where your heart is and where they live, back in the 1950s, whereas the country has moved on and frankly I expect reform to become quite unpopular if they take Musk's money and side with Trump and his crazy ideas

In which case the Starmer government will be thrown out of office once it loses its majority as the LDs will hold the balance of power on current polls and want the universal WFP reinstated let alone Reform.

The Tories are a million miles from a majority too so Stride can say what he wants he won't be able to implement it without LD or Reform backing either

The Scots have a wonderful expression for you

You are just 'havering'

Look it up

It is just reality, the Tories, LDs, Reform and SNP would all back a no confidence vote in a Labour minority government unless it reverses the tractor tax and WFA cut. So unless Labour retains its majority at the next GE both those policies are doomed

You assume far too much there. The SNP will never (again) put the Tories in over Labour. The Lib Dems are very unlikely to with the Tories in their current state. And we can't have endless general elections so if it is a Con-/Lab-led govt choice then they'd go with Labour.

You don't need to No Confidence a minority government to get your preferred policies when you can oppose vote-by-vote.

That said, the Winter Fuel issue will be very old news by 2028/9.

The LDs if Kingmakers could simply restore the WFA and reverse the IHT exemption removal for family farms via amendment to a Labour minority government's Budget and threaten to vote down the entire budget unless included

Except that its not going to be on their agenda by 2029.

The only reason its talked about today is its in the news today, come 2029 they'll have whatever priorities suit 2029 and not today's news.

Just like Labour screamed and screamed about the bedroom tax but once in office it wasn't their priority anymore.

At least half the LD seats are in rural areas and almost half LD voters are pensioners, it will be far more of an issue for them reversing the tractor tax and WFA cut than the bedroom tax will be for Labour now given the size of their majority. The LDs learnt their lesson from 2010-15 and will want more of a pound of flesh from any minority government before agreeing to support them.

Though Labour have managed to find huge payrises for their core voters such as train drivers and NHS GPs the Tories didn't even so. Reversing the bedroom tax was also never in Starmer's manifesto anyway

Interesting that Steve Baker said this evening that the Tories would never get anywhere until they start being serious and realise that such things as supporting the winter fuel payments for pensioners is unsustainable. I thought he was quite impressive.

Yes well if they lose all their pensioner core vote to the LDs and Reform the 2 remaining Tory MPs can be as serious as they like but nobody will be listening

HYUFD said:

Roger said:

HYUFD said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

HYUFD said:

david_herdson said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

OldKingCole said:

HYUFD said:

kinabalu said:

HYUFD said:

kinabalu said:

HYUFD said:

OldKingCole said:

HYUFD said:

RochdalePioneers said:

HYUFD said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

Yes, Labour under Corbyn had 150,000 more members than it does now under Starmer but it was the latter who won a general election.

It is not surprising more hardcore rightwingers have switched to Farage's Reform over the Tories, though in most polls the Tories are still ahead of Reform even if Reform have more members. Remember the main swing since July has been Labour to Reform, the Tories little changed. Some Tories would vote LD over Reform even if they would not join any party

As the Tories are on the back of historically their worst performance in the post Victorian era, I would have thought Reform syphoning off more from Labour than the Conservatives is scant relief for the remaining faithful. I believe you understand the damage working class hero and snake oil salesman Farage could do to the Labour Party but have missed that he has already done his work on your party.

Although to be fair I would have thought you would dovetail neatly into Reform. Afterall they do all the fun things you like. Elitism, Grammar schools, no inheritance tax, reducing the size of the state, privatisation of public services, fox hunting, repatriation of foreigners and the list continues. No hanging and flogging yet, although when Suella has her feet under the table who knows?

Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats on current polls purely as a result of Labour voters going Reform and FPTP even if the Tory vote is largely unchanged from July.

There is no doubt Reform are gaining, now on -32% higher in net favourability than either Labour on -35% or the Tories on -43%.

Kemi still has a higher net favourable on -31% compared to -34% for Farage and -36% for Starmer

https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/nigel-farage-reform-uk-now-has-more-members-than-the-conservative-party-qwd2wmcwc

I just don't understand how your brain works. You know politics. You are involved in politics. So you know as well as I do that the snapshot today *is not how people will vote in 4 years time*

The question is how the trends will play out. And the trends are moving away from you and towards Reform, on what feels like an exponential curve once you factor in that Reform now have all the money and the media attention.

"Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats". No, she won't. Which seats do you have in mind?

Electoral Calculus' average poll projection now has the Tories up 84 MPs to 205, Labour down 127 to 285, the LDs down 4 to 68 and Reform up 33 to 38 and the SNP up 7 to 16. Giving a hung parliament
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

Lab/LibDem coalition from the looks of it. If the LibDems are prepared to enter a coalition, of course.
Could take a centre-left Government through to 2034.

Of course, things will almost certainly change.

Indeed, though as the LDs oppose the tractor tax, oppose the winter fuel allowance cut and are more NIMBY on building in greenbelt land in the home counties could be quite some demands Sir Ed gives Sir Keir for his support

What is the tractor tax?

Labour hammering family farms with assets over £1 million with IHT which the LDs oppose

Unlikely to have tractors worth that much. And would that be IHT at half the normal rate with 10 years to pay it by any chance?

It would be IHT destroying family farms which have an average value of around £2 million.

Regardless of the policy value anyway the Tories, Reform, the LDs and SNP all oppose it so Starmer if he loses his majority either has to scrap it and the winter fuel allowance cut all the opposition parties also oppose or they all no confidence a Labour minority government and throw him out of office

By 2029 this will be old hat, and the big landowners, who are most affected, will have worked out deals with their accountants and solicitors.
The Winter Fuel Allowance will be long forgotten, as there will some directed form of support to the needy, not handouts for the likes of Big and myself.

No they won't, I live in a rural area and the loathing for this Labour government round here is unbelievable, rural areas will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with Labour and keeps the hated tractor tax.

Pensioners also will never forgive Labour either for their total betrayal, you even hear them at cafes whinging on Starmer's betrayal, they also will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with them and keeps the WFA cut.

Plus you have the employers and small businesses hammered by the NI for employers rise also furious with the government and Starmer and Reeves

I am with @OldKingCole on this

The universal WFP will not be reinstated, and there will be a very different set of problems and issues that will need innovative ways to resolve by 2029

Mel Stride has already said the triple lock is unaffordable and that will not be in the manifesto as it is unaffordable

To be honest, you should join reform as that is where your heart is and where they live, back in the 1950s, whereas the country has moved on and frankly I expect reform to become quite unpopular if they take Musk's money and side with Trump and his crazy ideas

In which case the Starmer government will be thrown out of office once it loses its majority as the LDs will hold the balance of power on current polls and want the universal WFP reinstated let alone Reform.

The Tories are a million miles from a majority too so Stride can say what he wants he won't be able to implement it without LD or Reform backing either

The Scots have a wonderful expression for you

You are just 'havering'

Look it up

It is just reality, the Tories, LDs, Reform and SNP would all back a no confidence vote in a Labour minority government unless it reverses the tractor tax and WFA cut. So unless Labour retains its majority at the next GE both those policies are doomed

You assume far too much there. The SNP will never (again) put the Tories in over Labour. The Lib Dems are very unlikely to with the Tories in their current state. And we can't have endless general elections so if it is a Con-/Lab-led govt choice then they'd go with Labour.

You don't need to No Confidence a minority government to get your preferred policies when you can oppose vote-by-vote.

That said, the Winter Fuel issue will be very old news by 2028/9.

The LDs if Kingmakers could simply restore the WFA and reverse the IHT exemption removal for family farms via amendment to a Labour minority government's Budget and threaten to vote down the entire budget unless included

Except that its not going to be on their agenda by 2029.

The only reason its talked about today is its in the news today, come 2029 they'll have whatever priorities suit 2029 and not today's news.

Just like Labour screamed and screamed about the bedroom tax but once in office it wasn't their priority anymore.

At least half the LD seats are in rural areas and almost half LD voters are pensioners, it will be far more of an issue for them reversing the tractor tax and WFA cut than the bedroom tax will be for Labour now given the size of their majority. The LDs learnt their lesson from 2010-15 and will want more of a pound of flesh from any minority government before agreeing to support them.

Though Labour have managed to find huge payrises for their core voters such as train drivers and NHS GPs the Tories didn't even so. Reversing the bedroom tax was also never in Starmer's manifesto anyway

Interesting that Steve Baker said this evening that the Tories would never get anywhere until they start being serious and realise that such things as supporting the winter fuel payments for pensioners is unsustainable. I thought he was quite impressive.

Yes well if they lose all their pensioner core vote to the LDs and Reform the 2 remaining Tory MPs can be as serious as they like but nobody will be listening

Steve Baker is correct and you simply are stuck in reform

On another topic. Do you know a Welsh musician called Karl Jenkins? I worked with him and his partner Mike Ratledge many times. He was my first choice for composing jingles particularly for cars and he was super cool.

What I didn't know till this evening is that he's now been knighted and has written the most popular piece of classical music written by a living composer. I'm shocked!

Oh my God, that is awesome. I loved their work in Soft Machine. Ratledge is on Third, a brilliant album. Ditto Fourth, their next album. (OK, they weren't great at album names.) Jenkins joined the band later. He's on albums like Bundles.

And, yes, Jenkins then went off to do jingles and then converted that into a contemporary classical crossover thing, starting with Adiemus (Ratledge is also on that one) and then the very successful "Palladio".

Here's a sexed up "Palladio": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nXb5UNI6nPs

MattW said:

Nigelb said:

Roger said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Roger said:

HYUFD said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

HYUFD said:

david_herdson said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

OldKingCole said:

HYUFD said:

kinabalu said:

HYUFD said:

kinabalu said:

HYUFD said:

OldKingCole said:

HYUFD said:

RochdalePioneers said:

HYUFD said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

Yes, Labour under Corbyn had 150,000 more members than it does now under Starmer but it was the latter who won a general election.

It is not surprising more hardcore rightwingers have switched to Farage's Reform over the Tories, though in most polls the Tories are still ahead of Reform even if Reform have more members. Remember the main swing since July has been Labour to Reform, the Tories little changed. Some Tories would vote LD over Reform even if they would not join any party

As the Tories are on the back of historically their worst performance in the post Victorian era, I would have thought Reform syphoning off more from Labour than the Conservatives is scant relief for the remaining faithful. I believe you understand the damage working class hero and snake oil salesman Farage could do to the Labour Party but have missed that he has already done his work on your party.

Although to be fair I would have thought you would dovetail neatly into Reform. Afterall they do all the fun things you like. Elitism, Grammar schools, no inheritance tax, reducing the size of the state, privatisation of public services, fox hunting, repatriation of foreigners and the list continues. No hanging and flogging yet, although when Suella has her feet under the table who knows?

Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats on current polls purely as a result of Labour voters going Reform and FPTP even if the Tory vote is largely unchanged from July.

There is no doubt Reform are gaining, now on -32% higher in net favourability than either Labour on -35% or the Tories on -43%.

Kemi still has a higher net favourable on -31% compared to -34% for Farage and -36% for Starmer

https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/nigel-farage-reform-uk-now-has-more-members-than-the-conservative-party-qwd2wmcwc

I just don't understand how your brain works. You know politics. You are involved in politics. So you know as well as I do that the snapshot today *is not how people will vote in 4 years time*

The question is how the trends will play out. And the trends are moving away from you and towards Reform, on what feels like an exponential curve once you factor in that Reform now have all the money and the media attention.

"Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats". No, she won't. Which seats do you have in mind?

Electoral Calculus' average poll projection now has the Tories up 84 MPs to 205, Labour down 127 to 285, the LDs down 4 to 68 and Reform up 33 to 38 and the SNP up 7 to 16. Giving a hung parliament
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

Lab/LibDem coalition from the looks of it. If the LibDems are prepared to enter a coalition, of course.
Could take a centre-left Government through to 2034.

Of course, things will almost certainly change.

Indeed, though as the LDs oppose the tractor tax, oppose the winter fuel allowance cut and are more NIMBY on building in greenbelt land in the home counties could be quite some demands Sir Ed gives Sir Keir for his support

What is the tractor tax?

Labour hammering family farms with assets over £1 million with IHT which the LDs oppose

Unlikely to have tractors worth that much. And would that be IHT at half the normal rate with 10 years to pay it by any chance?

It would be IHT destroying family farms which have an average value of around £2 million.

Regardless of the policy value anyway the Tories, Reform, the LDs and SNP all oppose it so Starmer if he loses his majority either has to scrap it and the winter fuel allowance cut all the opposition parties also oppose or they all no confidence a Labour minority government and throw him out of office

By 2029 this will be old hat, and the big landowners, who are most affected, will have worked out deals with their accountants and solicitors.
The Winter Fuel Allowance will be long forgotten, as there will some directed form of support to the needy, not handouts for the likes of Big and myself.

No they won't, I live in a rural area and the loathing for this Labour government round here is unbelievable, rural areas will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with Labour and keeps the hated tractor tax.

Pensioners also will never forgive Labour either for their total betrayal, you even hear them at cafes whinging on Starmer's betrayal, they also will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with them and keeps the WFA cut.

Plus you have the employers and small businesses hammered by the NI for employers rise also furious with the government and Starmer and Reeves

I am with @OldKingCole on this

The universal WFP will not be reinstated, and there will be a very different set of problems and issues that will need innovative ways to resolve by 2029

Mel Stride has already said the triple lock is unaffordable and that will not be in the manifesto as it is unaffordable

To be honest, you should join reform as that is where your heart is and where they live, back in the 1950s, whereas the country has moved on and frankly I expect reform to become quite unpopular if they take Musk's money and side with Trump and his crazy ideas

In which case the Starmer government will be thrown out of office once it loses its majority as the LDs will hold the balance of power on current polls and want the universal WFP reinstated let alone Reform.

The Tories are a million miles from a majority too so Stride can say what he wants he won't be able to implement it without LD or Reform backing either

The Scots have a wonderful expression for you

You are just 'havering'

Look it up

It is just reality, the Tories, LDs, Reform and SNP would all back a no confidence vote in a Labour minority government unless it reverses the tractor tax and WFA cut. So unless Labour retains its majority at the next GE both those policies are doomed

You assume far too much there. The SNP will never (again) put the Tories in over Labour. The Lib Dems are very unlikely to with the Tories in their current state. And we can't have endless general elections so if it is a Con-/Lab-led govt choice then they'd go with Labour.

You don't need to No Confidence a minority government to get your preferred policies when you can oppose vote-by-vote.

That said, the Winter Fuel issue will be very old news by 2028/9.

The LDs if Kingmakers could simply restore the WFA and reverse the IHT exemption removal for family farms via amendment to a Labour minority government's Budget and threaten to vote down the entire budget unless included

Except that its not going to be on their agenda by 2029.

The only reason its talked about today is its in the news today, come 2029 they'll have whatever priorities suit 2029 and not today's news.

Just like Labour screamed and screamed about the bedroom tax but once in office it wasn't their priority anymore.

At least half the LD seats are in rural areas and almost half LD voters are pensioners, it will be far more of an issue for them reversing the tractor tax and WFA cut than the bedroom tax will be for Labour now given the size of their majority. The LDs learnt their lesson from 2010-15 and will want more of a pound of flesh from any minority government before agreeing to support them.

Though Labour have managed to find huge payrises for their core voters such as train drivers and NHS GPs the Tories didn't even so. Reversing the bedroom tax was also never in Starmer's manifesto anyway

Interesting that Steve Baker said this evening that the Tories would never get anywhere until they start being serious and realise that such things as supporting the winter fuel payments for pensioners is unsustainable. I thought he was quite impressive.

Yes well if they lose all their pensioner core vote to the LDs and Reform the 2 remaining Tory MPs can be as serious as they like but nobody will be listening

HYUFD said:

Roger said:

HYUFD said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

HYUFD said:

david_herdson said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

OldKingCole said:

HYUFD said:

kinabalu said:

HYUFD said:

kinabalu said:

HYUFD said:

OldKingCole said:

HYUFD said:

RochdalePioneers said:

HYUFD said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

Yes, Labour under Corbyn had 150,000 more members than it does now under Starmer but it was the latter who won a general election.

It is not surprising more hardcore rightwingers have switched to Farage's Reform over the Tories, though in most polls the Tories are still ahead of Reform even if Reform have more members. Remember the main swing since July has been Labour to Reform, the Tories little changed. Some Tories would vote LD over Reform even if they would not join any party

As the Tories are on the back of historically their worst performance in the post Victorian era, I would have thought Reform syphoning off more from Labour than the Conservatives is scant relief for the remaining faithful. I believe you understand the damage working class hero and snake oil salesman Farage could do to the Labour Party but have missed that he has already done his work on your party.

Although to be fair I would have thought you would dovetail neatly into Reform. Afterall they do all the fun things you like. Elitism, Grammar schools, no inheritance tax, reducing the size of the state, privatisation of public services, fox hunting, repatriation of foreigners and the list continues. No hanging and flogging yet, although when Suella has her feet under the table who knows?

Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats on current polls purely as a result of Labour voters going Reform and FPTP even if the Tory vote is largely unchanged from July.

There is no doubt Reform are gaining, now on -32% higher in net favourability than either Labour on -35% or the Tories on -43%.

Kemi still has a higher net favourable on -31% compared to -34% for Farage and -36% for Starmer

https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/nigel-farage-reform-uk-now-has-more-members-than-the-conservative-party-qwd2wmcwc

I just don't understand how your brain works. You know politics. You are involved in politics. So you know as well as I do that the snapshot today *is not how people will vote in 4 years time*

The question is how the trends will play out. And the trends are moving away from you and towards Reform, on what feels like an exponential curve once you factor in that Reform now have all the money and the media attention.

"Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats". No, she won't. Which seats do you have in mind?

Electoral Calculus' average poll projection now has the Tories up 84 MPs to 205, Labour down 127 to 285, the LDs down 4 to 68 and Reform up 33 to 38 and the SNP up 7 to 16. Giving a hung parliament
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

Lab/LibDem coalition from the looks of it. If the LibDems are prepared to enter a coalition, of course.
Could take a centre-left Government through to 2034.

Of course, things will almost certainly change.

Indeed, though as the LDs oppose the tractor tax, oppose the winter fuel allowance cut and are more NIMBY on building in greenbelt land in the home counties could be quite some demands Sir Ed gives Sir Keir for his support

What is the tractor tax?

Labour hammering family farms with assets over £1 million with IHT which the LDs oppose

Unlikely to have tractors worth that much. And would that be IHT at half the normal rate with 10 years to pay it by any chance?

It would be IHT destroying family farms which have an average value of around £2 million.

Regardless of the policy value anyway the Tories, Reform, the LDs and SNP all oppose it so Starmer if he loses his majority either has to scrap it and the winter fuel allowance cut all the opposition parties also oppose or they all no confidence a Labour minority government and throw him out of office

By 2029 this will be old hat, and the big landowners, who are most affected, will have worked out deals with their accountants and solicitors.
The Winter Fuel Allowance will be long forgotten, as there will some directed form of support to the needy, not handouts for the likes of Big and myself.

No they won't, I live in a rural area and the loathing for this Labour government round here is unbelievable, rural areas will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with Labour and keeps the hated tractor tax.

Pensioners also will never forgive Labour either for their total betrayal, you even hear them at cafes whinging on Starmer's betrayal, they also will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with them and keeps the WFA cut.

Plus you have the employers and small businesses hammered by the NI for employers rise also furious with the government and Starmer and Reeves

I am with @OldKingCole on this

The universal WFP will not be reinstated, and there will be a very different set of problems and issues that will need innovative ways to resolve by 2029

Mel Stride has already said the triple lock is unaffordable and that will not be in the manifesto as it is unaffordable

To be honest, you should join reform as that is where your heart is and where they live, back in the 1950s, whereas the country has moved on and frankly I expect reform to become quite unpopular if they take Musk's money and side with Trump and his crazy ideas

In which case the Starmer government will be thrown out of office once it loses its majority as the LDs will hold the balance of power on current polls and want the universal WFP reinstated let alone Reform.

The Tories are a million miles from a majority too so Stride can say what he wants he won't be able to implement it without LD or Reform backing either

The Scots have a wonderful expression for you

You are just 'havering'

Look it up

It is just reality, the Tories, LDs, Reform and SNP would all back a no confidence vote in a Labour minority government unless it reverses the tractor tax and WFA cut. So unless Labour retains its majority at the next GE both those policies are doomed

You assume far too much there. The SNP will never (again) put the Tories in over Labour. The Lib Dems are very unlikely to with the Tories in their current state. And we can't have endless general elections so if it is a Con-/Lab-led govt choice then they'd go with Labour.

You don't need to No Confidence a minority government to get your preferred policies when you can oppose vote-by-vote.

That said, the Winter Fuel issue will be very old news by 2028/9.

The LDs if Kingmakers could simply restore the WFA and reverse the IHT exemption removal for family farms via amendment to a Labour minority government's Budget and threaten to vote down the entire budget unless included

Except that its not going to be on their agenda by 2029.

The only reason its talked about today is its in the news today, come 2029 they'll have whatever priorities suit 2029 and not today's news.

Just like Labour screamed and screamed about the bedroom tax but once in office it wasn't their priority anymore.

At least half the LD seats are in rural areas and almost half LD voters are pensioners, it will be far more of an issue for them reversing the tractor tax and WFA cut than the bedroom tax will be for Labour now given the size of their majority. The LDs learnt their lesson from 2010-15 and will want more of a pound of flesh from any minority government before agreeing to support them.

Though Labour have managed to find huge payrises for their core voters such as train drivers and NHS GPs the Tories didn't even so. Reversing the bedroom tax was also never in Starmer's manifesto anyway

Interesting that Steve Baker said this evening that the Tories would never get anywhere until they start being serious and realise that such things as supporting the winter fuel payments for pensioners is unsustainable. I thought he was quite impressive.

Yes well if they lose all their pensioner core vote to the LDs and Reform the 2 remaining Tory MPs can be as serious as they like but nobody will be listening

HYUFD said:

Roger said:

HYUFD said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

HYUFD said:

david_herdson said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

OldKingCole said:

HYUFD said:

kinabalu said:

HYUFD said:

kinabalu said:

HYUFD said:

OldKingCole said:

HYUFD said:

RochdalePioneers said:

HYUFD said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

Yes, Labour under Corbyn had 150,000 more members than it does now under Starmer but it was the latter who won a general election.

It is not surprising more hardcore rightwingers have switched to Farage's Reform over the Tories, though in most polls the Tories are still ahead of Reform even if Reform have more members. Remember the main swing since July has been Labour to Reform, the Tories little changed. Some Tories would vote LD over Reform even if they would not join any party

As the Tories are on the back of historically their worst performance in the post Victorian era, I would have thought Reform syphoning off more from Labour than the Conservatives is scant relief for the remaining faithful. I believe you understand the damage working class hero and snake oil salesman Farage could do to the Labour Party but have missed that he has already done his work on your party.

Although to be fair I would have thought you would dovetail neatly into Reform. Afterall they do all the fun things you like. Elitism, Grammar schools, no inheritance tax, reducing the size of the state, privatisation of public services, fox hunting, repatriation of foreigners and the list continues. No hanging and flogging yet, although when Suella has her feet under the table who knows?

Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats on current polls purely as a result of Labour voters going Reform and FPTP even if the Tory vote is largely unchanged from July.

There is no doubt Reform are gaining, now on -32% higher in net favourability than either Labour on -35% or the Tories on -43%.

Kemi still has a higher net favourable on -31% compared to -34% for Farage and -36% for Starmer

https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/nigel-farage-reform-uk-now-has-more-members-than-the-conservative-party-qwd2wmcwc

I just don't understand how your brain works. You know politics. You are involved in politics. So you know as well as I do that the snapshot today *is not how people will vote in 4 years time*

The question is how the trends will play out. And the trends are moving away from you and towards Reform, on what feels like an exponential curve once you factor in that Reform now have all the money and the media attention.

"Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats". No, she won't. Which seats do you have in mind?

Electoral Calculus' average poll projection now has the Tories up 84 MPs to 205, Labour down 127 to 285, the LDs down 4 to 68 and Reform up 33 to 38 and the SNP up 7 to 16. Giving a hung parliament
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

Lab/LibDem coalition from the looks of it. If the LibDems are prepared to enter a coalition, of course.
Could take a centre-left Government through to 2034.

Of course, things will almost certainly change.

Indeed, though as the LDs oppose the tractor tax, oppose the winter fuel allowance cut and are more NIMBY on building in greenbelt land in the home counties could be quite some demands Sir Ed gives Sir Keir for his support

What is the tractor tax?

Labour hammering family farms with assets over £1 million with IHT which the LDs oppose

Unlikely to have tractors worth that much. And would that be IHT at half the normal rate with 10 years to pay it by any chance?

It would be IHT destroying family farms which have an average value of around £2 million.

Regardless of the policy value anyway the Tories, Reform, the LDs and SNP all oppose it so Starmer if he loses his majority either has to scrap it and the winter fuel allowance cut all the opposition parties also oppose or they all no confidence a Labour minority government and throw him out of office

By 2029 this will be old hat, and the big landowners, who are most affected, will have worked out deals with their accountants and solicitors.
The Winter Fuel Allowance will be long forgotten, as there will some directed form of support to the needy, not handouts for the likes of Big and myself.

No they won't, I live in a rural area and the loathing for this Labour government round here is unbelievable, rural areas will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with Labour and keeps the hated tractor tax.

Pensioners also will never forgive Labour either for their total betrayal, you even hear them at cafes whinging on Starmer's betrayal, they also will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with them and keeps the WFA cut.

Plus you have the employers and small businesses hammered by the NI for employers rise also furious with the government and Starmer and Reeves

I am with @OldKingCole on this

The universal WFP will not be reinstated, and there will be a very different set of problems and issues that will need innovative ways to resolve by 2029

Mel Stride has already said the triple lock is unaffordable and that will not be in the manifesto as it is unaffordable

To be honest, you should join reform as that is where your heart is and where they live, back in the 1950s, whereas the country has moved on and frankly I expect reform to become quite unpopular if they take Musk's money and side with Trump and his crazy ideas

In which case the Starmer government will be thrown out of office once it loses its majority as the LDs will hold the balance of power on current polls and want the universal WFP reinstated let alone Reform.

The Tories are a million miles from a majority too so Stride can say what he wants he won't be able to implement it without LD or Reform backing either

The Scots have a wonderful expression for you

You are just 'havering'

Look it up

It is just reality, the Tories, LDs, Reform and SNP would all back a no confidence vote in a Labour minority government unless it reverses the tractor tax and WFA cut. So unless Labour retains its majority at the next GE both those policies are doomed

You assume far too much there. The SNP will never (again) put the Tories in over Labour. The Lib Dems are very unlikely to with the Tories in their current state. And we can't have endless general elections so if it is a Con-/Lab-led govt choice then they'd go with Labour.

You don't need to No Confidence a minority government to get your preferred policies when you can oppose vote-by-vote.

That said, the Winter Fuel issue will be very old news by 2028/9.

The LDs if Kingmakers could simply restore the WFA and reverse the IHT exemption removal for family farms via amendment to a Labour minority government's Budget and threaten to vote down the entire budget unless included

Except that its not going to be on their agenda by 2029.

The only reason its talked about today is its in the news today, come 2029 they'll have whatever priorities suit 2029 and not today's news.

Just like Labour screamed and screamed about the bedroom tax but once in office it wasn't their priority anymore.

At least half the LD seats are in rural areas and almost half LD voters are pensioners, it will be far more of an issue for them reversing the tractor tax and WFA cut than the bedroom tax will be for Labour now given the size of their majority. The LDs learnt their lesson from 2010-15 and will want more of a pound of flesh from any minority government before agreeing to support them.

Though Labour have managed to find huge payrises for their core voters such as train drivers and NHS GPs the Tories didn't even so. Reversing the bedroom tax was also never in Starmer's manifesto anyway

Interesting that Steve Baker said this evening that the Tories would never get anywhere until they start being serious and realise that such things as supporting the winter fuel payments for pensioners is unsustainable. I thought he was quite impressive.

Yes well if they lose all their pensioner core vote to the LDs and Reform the 2 remaining Tory MPs can be as serious as they like but nobody will be listening

Steve Baker is correct and you simply are stuck in reform

On another topic. Do you know a Welsh musician called Karl Jenkins? I worked with him and his partner Mike Ratledge many times. He was my first choice for composing jingles particularly for cars and he was super cool.

What I didn't know till this evening is that he's now been knighted and has written the most popular piece of classical music written by a living composer. I'm shocked!

Jeez, Roger.
I thought everyone knows The Armed Man.

I haven't heard either of the man or his music. Having a look, the ones I seem to recognise are the advertising tunes - clearly I work off a visual cue. To me, he makes 'textures' a little like Enya, and for me I don't think that is enough unless there is something else alongside it.

In some ways I find contemporary dance easier to appreciate than 'classical' music.

LostPassword said:

Cicero said:

AnthonyT said:

MattW said:

On Western countries potentially having to fight a proper war.

Have we noted that the ship 'arrested' (ie escorted into port) by the Finnish Coastguard in connection with the Estlink Electricity interconnector (658MW), and also the two broken fibre optic internet cables, and the further one damaged, over Christmas, is thought to be part of Russia's shadow fleet of offshored ancient oil tankers?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/26/finnish-coastguard-boards-eagle-s-oil-tanker-suspected-of-causing-power-cable-outages

I'd say they are testing the edges, and attacking resilience. The power cable will take months to repair.

I'm actually not sure what powers police and coastguards have to operate in international waters, or what sanctions can be applied to Russian-controlled ships. Iirc it's very complicated, and takes forever, if things are not done under "we need to do THIS" type powers that coastguards etc may not have.

I believe the UK now has one ship - RFA Proteus, bought second hand from Norway last year, dedicated to keeping an eye on undersea assets, amongst the other things it does.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RFA_Proteus

What are the chances of an actual Russian attack on Finland in 2025? Or one of the Baltic states?

More than negligible.

If it does happen we are hopelessly unprepared.

The local armies are fully prepared. Bear in mind that the Russian army is a long way from the Baltic at present.

There are 2,700 full time soldiers in the Estonian Army.

That's about two days of casualties for the Russian army in the current war.

rcs1000 said:

Cookie said:

rcs1000 said:

Cookie said:

rcs1000 said:

Cookie said:

kinabalu said:

Driver said:

malcolmg said:

kinabalu said:

williamglenn said:

LostPassword said:

The New York Times is reporting that Ukraine is nearly out of the ATACMs missiles supplied by the US, and Britain doesn't have many Storm Shadow missiles left.

The failure of Western countries to produce key armaments to supply to Ukraine is stark.

The failure of Biden to call Putin's bluff in 2022 instead of closing the embassy and telling the world that Ukraine would fall in three days continues to have dreadful consequences.

That's not washing. Biden supported Ukraine whilst being mindful of the escalation risk. You can quibble on the margins, eg too risk averse?, but in no way will a Russian victory, if it happens, be on his head.

he was wishy washy and did the absolute minimum, useless.

Perhaps even short of the absolute minimum.

Don't be ridiculous.

I don't think that's ridiculous. With even half-hearted American support Ukraine could have prevailed. But it suited America to have a stalemate, not least due to its impact on POO.

I don't think this is true at all.

I think Biden would much rather that Ukraine had prevailed, because it would have led to the downfall of Putin, which would hugely of been in his interests.

It's more accurate to say - as @williamglenn does - that Biden was excessively concerned about the risks of escalation, and overestimated Russia's strength. And that was a mistake.

A mistake, for what it's worth, that many others made too.

I'm really not sure it is in America's interests for Putin to be replaced. Tge chances of Putin being replaced with someone who is better for America seem quite a long way lessthan 50%.

Again, I don't think that's true at all.

Putin's Russia has been a constant thorn in the West. In Poland, it spent a fortune on supporting groups to get fracking banned, for example. It has constantly tried to increase division in the West.

Those actions have, historically, had no consequences.

Any new regime in Moscow is going to be concerned primarily with getting sanctions removed and rebuilding the Russian economy. On the hierarchy of needs for any regime, getting the people fed and less likely to evict you is massively more important than stirring up trouble abroad.

I'd like to think that's so. But alternatively it could decide to pursue whatever mad bastardry it happens to have on its agenda while it has the chance? Worldwide, the record of benign regimes replacing dictators is at best mixed.

I'm not expecting a benign regime.

But I do expect a regime that has learnt the hard way that invading your neighbours and messing in other countries democratic systems has consequences.

That requires us to grow some balls. It requires regime change in Moscow. And it requires us to set the incentives for the new government correctly.

We failed on all three of these historically.

spudgfsh said:

rcs1000 said:

Cookie said:

rcs1000 said:

Cookie said:

rcs1000 said:

Cookie said:

kinabalu said:

Driver said:

malcolmg said:

kinabalu said:

williamglenn said:

LostPassword said:

The New York Times is reporting that Ukraine is nearly out of the ATACMs missiles supplied by the US, and Britain doesn't have many Storm Shadow missiles left.

The failure of Western countries to produce key armaments to supply to Ukraine is stark.

The failure of Biden to call Putin's bluff in 2022 instead of closing the embassy and telling the world that Ukraine would fall in three days continues to have dreadful consequences.

That's not washing. Biden supported Ukraine whilst being mindful of the escalation risk. You can quibble on the margins, eg too risk averse?, but in no way will a Russian victory, if it happens, be on his head.

he was wishy washy and did the absolute minimum, useless.

Perhaps even short of the absolute minimum.

Don't be ridiculous.

I don't think that's ridiculous. With even half-hearted American support Ukraine could have prevailed. But it suited America to have a stalemate, not least due to its impact on POO.

I don't think this is true at all.

I think Biden would much rather that Ukraine had prevailed, because it would have led to the downfall of Putin, which would hugely of been in his interests.

It's more accurate to say - as @williamglenn does - that Biden was excessively concerned about the risks of escalation, and overestimated Russia's strength. And that was a mistake.

A mistake, for what it's worth, that many others made too.

I'm really not sure it is in America's interests for Putin to be replaced. Tge chances of Putin being replaced with someone who is better for America seem quite a long way lessthan 50%.

Again, I don't think that's true at all.

Putin's Russia has been a constant thorn in the West. In Poland, it spent a fortune on supporting groups to get fracking banned, for example. It has constantly tried to increase division in the West.

Those actions have, historically, had no consequences.

Any new regime in Moscow is going to be concerned primarily with getting sanctions removed and rebuilding the Russian economy. On the hierarchy of needs for any regime, getting the people fed and less likely to evict you is massively more important than stirring up trouble abroad.

I'd like to think that's so. But alternatively it could decide to pursue whatever mad bastardry it happens to have on its agenda while it has the chance? Worldwide, the record of benign regimes replacing dictators is at best mixed.

I'm not expecting a benign regime.

But I do expect a regime that has learnt the hard way that invading your neighbours and messing in other countries democratic systems has consequences.

That requires us to grow some balls. It requires regime change in Moscow. And it requires us to set the incentives for the new government correctly.

We failed on all three of these historically.

What I'm expecting post Putin is instability. He's hollowed out the state, government and opposition of all potential replacements.

Nigelb said:

Foxy said:

Driver said:

Foxy said:

Driver said:

Fishing said:

Foxy said:

Driver said:

Foxy said:

Casino_Royale said:

Northern_Al said:

Anybody who seriously thinks that the WFA cut, the IHT on farms issue, and the VAT on private school fees policy will be issues of significance in the 2028/29 GE must be bonkers, as must anybody who thinks that keying current polling figures into Electoral Calculus gives us a clue as to the outcome of that election.
Sorry HYUFD, but therefore it follows logically that you must be bonkers.

I'd almost argue the opposite, why wouldn't they be?

Where does this idea that people "forget" policies or measures that targeted them once a parliament approaches its conclusion come from?

Some might give up, accept it, or move onto other issues, but that's very far from a given.

Certainly so. I won't vote for a party that supports Brexit.

What is this "supports Brexit"? It's a part of history.

Just agreeing with CR. Voters have long memories and bear grudges.

I won't vote for a party that still supports the most collosal mistake of British foreign policy since Suez.

The Tories will become electable again when they support their policy of the half century to 2016 and want to join the EU. I don't expect it to happen any time soon.

The Tories didn't want to join the EU for half a century. In the 70s most of them supported joining the Common Market, which was very different from the EU, despite Ted Heath's lies about retaining sovereignty.

In the 90s Major just about got his party to pass the Maastricht treated, which spawned the EU.

And their policy in the 2010s was to have a referendum and implement the results, which they did, backed by the biggest democractic vote in this country's history, and endorsed by three general elections.

So there's no continuity in European policy for them to go back to, nor could there have been, as the EU has mutated and metastacised so much over that time.

Insofar as there was a consistent policy for that half century, it was "lie about what the European project was actually about".

To quote the Queens Speech at the State opening of Parliament in 1972:

"My Government will play a full and constructive part in the enlarged European Communities. They look forward to the opportunities membership will bring, for developing the country's full economic and industrial potential, for working out social and environmental policies on a European scale, and for increasing the influence of the enlarged Community for the benefit of the world at large."

It was always and explicitly more than a trading arrangement. Unless you believe that the Queen was lying to Parliament.

Yeah, as if that's a full description of the Project.

Perhaps the 1973 Queens speech in Hansard helps:

"In co-operation with other Member States My Government will play their full part in the further development of the European Community in accordance with the programme established at the European Summit in October 1972. This programme includes progress towards economic and monetary union; measures for the establishment of a regional development fund; and co-operation in foreign policy between Member States."

For a secret project the operational security wasn't very tight, with the Queen blabbing like that in Parliament.

An Inconvenient Truth.

The Brexiteer tendency did a great job in persuading everyone otherwise.

spudgfsh said:

bondegezou said:

spudgfsh said:

rcs1000 said:

Cookie said:

rcs1000 said:

Cookie said:

rcs1000 said:

Cookie said:

kinabalu said:

Driver said:

malcolmg said:

kinabalu said:

williamglenn said:

LostPassword said:

The New York Times is reporting that Ukraine is nearly out of the ATACMs missiles supplied by the US, and Britain doesn't have many Storm Shadow missiles left.

The failure of Western countries to produce key armaments to supply to Ukraine is stark.

The failure of Biden to call Putin's bluff in 2022 instead of closing the embassy and telling the world that Ukraine would fall in three days continues to have dreadful consequences.

That's not washing. Biden supported Ukraine whilst being mindful of the escalation risk. You can quibble on the margins, eg too risk averse?, but in no way will a Russian victory, if it happens, be on his head.

he was wishy washy and did the absolute minimum, useless.

Perhaps even short of the absolute minimum.

Don't be ridiculous.

I don't think that's ridiculous. With even half-hearted American support Ukraine could have prevailed. But it suited America to have a stalemate, not least due to its impact on POO.

I don't think this is true at all.

I think Biden would much rather that Ukraine had prevailed, because it would have led to the downfall of Putin, which would hugely of been in his interests.

It's more accurate to say - as @williamglenn does - that Biden was excessively concerned about the risks of escalation, and overestimated Russia's strength. And that was a mistake.

A mistake, for what it's worth, that many others made too.

I'm really not sure it is in America's interests for Putin to be replaced. Tge chances of Putin being replaced with someone who is better for America seem quite a long way lessthan 50%.

Again, I don't think that's true at all.

Putin's Russia has been a constant thorn in the West. In Poland, it spent a fortune on supporting groups to get fracking banned, for example. It has constantly tried to increase division in the West.

Those actions have, historically, had no consequences.

Any new regime in Moscow is going to be concerned primarily with getting sanctions removed and rebuilding the Russian economy. On the hierarchy of needs for any regime, getting the people fed and less likely to evict you is massively more important than stirring up trouble abroad.

I'd like to think that's so. But alternatively it could decide to pursue whatever mad bastardry it happens to have on its agenda while it has the chance? Worldwide, the record of benign regimes replacing dictators is at best mixed.

I'm not expecting a benign regime.

But I do expect a regime that has learnt the hard way that invading your neighbours and messing in other countries democratic systems has consequences.

That requires us to grow some balls. It requires regime change in Moscow. And it requires us to set the incentives for the new government correctly.

We failed on all three of these historically.

What I'm expecting post Putin is instability. He's hollowed out the state, government and opposition of all potential replacements.

You might see a fracturing of the Russian Federation, with Chechnya, Ingushetia and Dagestan going for independence. That might even spread further. Kalmykia? Tartarstan? Buryatia? It might be 1917 all over again.

It's a possibility that's been postulated but I'd be surprised if it happened to any significant degree

bondegezou said:

Roger said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Roger said:

HYUFD said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

HYUFD said:

david_herdson said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

OldKingCole said:

HYUFD said:

kinabalu said:

HYUFD said:

kinabalu said:

HYUFD said:

OldKingCole said:

HYUFD said:

RochdalePioneers said:

HYUFD said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

Yes, Labour under Corbyn had 150,000 more members than it does now under Starmer but it was the latter who won a general election.

It is not surprising more hardcore rightwingers have switched to Farage's Reform over the Tories, though in most polls the Tories are still ahead of Reform even if Reform have more members. Remember the main swing since July has been Labour to Reform, the Tories little changed. Some Tories would vote LD over Reform even if they would not join any party

As the Tories are on the back of historically their worst performance in the post Victorian era, I would have thought Reform syphoning off more from Labour than the Conservatives is scant relief for the remaining faithful. I believe you understand the damage working class hero and snake oil salesman Farage could do to the Labour Party but have missed that he has already done his work on your party.

Although to be fair I would have thought you would dovetail neatly into Reform. Afterall they do all the fun things you like. Elitism, Grammar schools, no inheritance tax, reducing the size of the state, privatisation of public services, fox hunting, repatriation of foreigners and the list continues. No hanging and flogging yet, although when Suella has her feet under the table who knows?

Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats on current polls purely as a result of Labour voters going Reform and FPTP even if the Tory vote is largely unchanged from July.

There is no doubt Reform are gaining, now on -32% higher in net favourability than either Labour on -35% or the Tories on -43%.

Kemi still has a higher net favourable on -31% compared to -34% for Farage and -36% for Starmer

https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/nigel-farage-reform-uk-now-has-more-members-than-the-conservative-party-qwd2wmcwc

I just don't understand how your brain works. You know politics. You are involved in politics. So you know as well as I do that the snapshot today *is not how people will vote in 4 years time*

The question is how the trends will play out. And the trends are moving away from you and towards Reform, on what feels like an exponential curve once you factor in that Reform now have all the money and the media attention.

"Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats". No, she won't. Which seats do you have in mind?

Electoral Calculus' average poll projection now has the Tories up 84 MPs to 205, Labour down 127 to 285, the LDs down 4 to 68 and Reform up 33 to 38 and the SNP up 7 to 16. Giving a hung parliament
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

Lab/LibDem coalition from the looks of it. If the LibDems are prepared to enter a coalition, of course.
Could take a centre-left Government through to 2034.

Of course, things will almost certainly change.

Indeed, though as the LDs oppose the tractor tax, oppose the winter fuel allowance cut and are more NIMBY on building in greenbelt land in the home counties could be quite some demands Sir Ed gives Sir Keir for his support

What is the tractor tax?

Labour hammering family farms with assets over £1 million with IHT which the LDs oppose

Unlikely to have tractors worth that much. And would that be IHT at half the normal rate with 10 years to pay it by any chance?

It would be IHT destroying family farms which have an average value of around £2 million.

Regardless of the policy value anyway the Tories, Reform, the LDs and SNP all oppose it so Starmer if he loses his majority either has to scrap it and the winter fuel allowance cut all the opposition parties also oppose or they all no confidence a Labour minority government and throw him out of office

By 2029 this will be old hat, and the big landowners, who are most affected, will have worked out deals with their accountants and solicitors.
The Winter Fuel Allowance will be long forgotten, as there will some directed form of support to the needy, not handouts for the likes of Big and myself.

No they won't, I live in a rural area and the loathing for this Labour government round here is unbelievable, rural areas will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with Labour and keeps the hated tractor tax.

Pensioners also will never forgive Labour either for their total betrayal, you even hear them at cafes whinging on Starmer's betrayal, they also will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with them and keeps the WFA cut.

Plus you have the employers and small businesses hammered by the NI for employers rise also furious with the government and Starmer and Reeves

I am with @OldKingCole on this

The universal WFP will not be reinstated, and there will be a very different set of problems and issues that will need innovative ways to resolve by 2029

Mel Stride has already said the triple lock is unaffordable and that will not be in the manifesto as it is unaffordable

To be honest, you should join reform as that is where your heart is and where they live, back in the 1950s, whereas the country has moved on and frankly I expect reform to become quite unpopular if they take Musk's money and side with Trump and his crazy ideas

In which case the Starmer government will be thrown out of office once it loses its majority as the LDs will hold the balance of power on current polls and want the universal WFP reinstated let alone Reform.

The Tories are a million miles from a majority too so Stride can say what he wants he won't be able to implement it without LD or Reform backing either

The Scots have a wonderful expression for you

You are just 'havering'

Look it up

It is just reality, the Tories, LDs, Reform and SNP would all back a no confidence vote in a Labour minority government unless it reverses the tractor tax and WFA cut. So unless Labour retains its majority at the next GE both those policies are doomed

You assume far too much there. The SNP will never (again) put the Tories in over Labour. The Lib Dems are very unlikely to with the Tories in their current state. And we can't have endless general elections so if it is a Con-/Lab-led govt choice then they'd go with Labour.

You don't need to No Confidence a minority government to get your preferred policies when you can oppose vote-by-vote.

That said, the Winter Fuel issue will be very old news by 2028/9.

The LDs if Kingmakers could simply restore the WFA and reverse the IHT exemption removal for family farms via amendment to a Labour minority government's Budget and threaten to vote down the entire budget unless included

Except that its not going to be on their agenda by 2029.

The only reason its talked about today is its in the news today, come 2029 they'll have whatever priorities suit 2029 and not today's news.

Just like Labour screamed and screamed about the bedroom tax but once in office it wasn't their priority anymore.

At least half the LD seats are in rural areas and almost half LD voters are pensioners, it will be far more of an issue for them reversing the tractor tax and WFA cut than the bedroom tax will be for Labour now given the size of their majority. The LDs learnt their lesson from 2010-15 and will want more of a pound of flesh from any minority government before agreeing to support them.

Though Labour have managed to find huge payrises for their core voters such as train drivers and NHS GPs the Tories didn't even so. Reversing the bedroom tax was also never in Starmer's manifesto anyway

Interesting that Steve Baker said this evening that the Tories would never get anywhere until they start being serious and realise that such things as supporting the winter fuel payments for pensioners is unsustainable. I thought he was quite impressive.

Yes well if they lose all their pensioner core vote to the LDs and Reform the 2 remaining Tory MPs can be as serious as they like but nobody will be listening

HYUFD said:

Roger said:

HYUFD said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

HYUFD said:

david_herdson said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

OldKingCole said:

HYUFD said:

kinabalu said:

HYUFD said:

kinabalu said:

HYUFD said:

OldKingCole said:

HYUFD said:

RochdalePioneers said:

HYUFD said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

Yes, Labour under Corbyn had 150,000 more members than it does now under Starmer but it was the latter who won a general election.

It is not surprising more hardcore rightwingers have switched to Farage's Reform over the Tories, though in most polls the Tories are still ahead of Reform even if Reform have more members. Remember the main swing since July has been Labour to Reform, the Tories little changed. Some Tories would vote LD over Reform even if they would not join any party

As the Tories are on the back of historically their worst performance in the post Victorian era, I would have thought Reform syphoning off more from Labour than the Conservatives is scant relief for the remaining faithful. I believe you understand the damage working class hero and snake oil salesman Farage could do to the Labour Party but have missed that he has already done his work on your party.

Although to be fair I would have thought you would dovetail neatly into Reform. Afterall they do all the fun things you like. Elitism, Grammar schools, no inheritance tax, reducing the size of the state, privatisation of public services, fox hunting, repatriation of foreigners and the list continues. No hanging and flogging yet, although when Suella has her feet under the table who knows?

Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats on current polls purely as a result of Labour voters going Reform and FPTP even if the Tory vote is largely unchanged from July.

There is no doubt Reform are gaining, now on -32% higher in net favourability than either Labour on -35% or the Tories on -43%.

Kemi still has a higher net favourable on -31% compared to -34% for Farage and -36% for Starmer

https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/nigel-farage-reform-uk-now-has-more-members-than-the-conservative-party-qwd2wmcwc

I just don't understand how your brain works. You know politics. You are involved in politics. So you know as well as I do that the snapshot today *is not how people will vote in 4 years time*

The question is how the trends will play out. And the trends are moving away from you and towards Reform, on what feels like an exponential curve once you factor in that Reform now have all the money and the media attention.

"Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats". No, she won't. Which seats do you have in mind?

Electoral Calculus' average poll projection now has the Tories up 84 MPs to 205, Labour down 127 to 285, the LDs down 4 to 68 and Reform up 33 to 38 and the SNP up 7 to 16. Giving a hung parliament
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

Lab/LibDem coalition from the looks of it. If the LibDems are prepared to enter a coalition, of course.
Could take a centre-left Government through to 2034.

Of course, things will almost certainly change.

Indeed, though as the LDs oppose the tractor tax, oppose the winter fuel allowance cut and are more NIMBY on building in greenbelt land in the home counties could be quite some demands Sir Ed gives Sir Keir for his support

What is the tractor tax?

Labour hammering family farms with assets over £1 million with IHT which the LDs oppose

Unlikely to have tractors worth that much. And would that be IHT at half the normal rate with 10 years to pay it by any chance?

It would be IHT destroying family farms which have an average value of around £2 million.

Regardless of the policy value anyway the Tories, Reform, the LDs and SNP all oppose it so Starmer if he loses his majority either has to scrap it and the winter fuel allowance cut all the opposition parties also oppose or they all no confidence a Labour minority government and throw him out of office

By 2029 this will be old hat, and the big landowners, who are most affected, will have worked out deals with their accountants and solicitors.
The Winter Fuel Allowance will be long forgotten, as there will some directed form of support to the needy, not handouts for the likes of Big and myself.

No they won't, I live in a rural area and the loathing for this Labour government round here is unbelievable, rural areas will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with Labour and keeps the hated tractor tax.

Pensioners also will never forgive Labour either for their total betrayal, you even hear them at cafes whinging on Starmer's betrayal, they also will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with them and keeps the WFA cut.

Plus you have the employers and small businesses hammered by the NI for employers rise also furious with the government and Starmer and Reeves

I am with @OldKingCole on this

The universal WFP will not be reinstated, and there will be a very different set of problems and issues that will need innovative ways to resolve by 2029

Mel Stride has already said the triple lock is unaffordable and that will not be in the manifesto as it is unaffordable

To be honest, you should join reform as that is where your heart is and where they live, back in the 1950s, whereas the country has moved on and frankly I expect reform to become quite unpopular if they take Musk's money and side with Trump and his crazy ideas

In which case the Starmer government will be thrown out of office once it loses its majority as the LDs will hold the balance of power on current polls and want the universal WFP reinstated let alone Reform.

The Tories are a million miles from a majority too so Stride can say what he wants he won't be able to implement it without LD or Reform backing either

The Scots have a wonderful expression for you

You are just 'havering'

Look it up

It is just reality, the Tories, LDs, Reform and SNP would all back a no confidence vote in a Labour minority government unless it reverses the tractor tax and WFA cut. So unless Labour retains its majority at the next GE both those policies are doomed

You assume far too much there. The SNP will never (again) put the Tories in over Labour. The Lib Dems are very unlikely to with the Tories in their current state. And we can't have endless general elections so if it is a Con-/Lab-led govt choice then they'd go with Labour.

You don't need to No Confidence a minority government to get your preferred policies when you can oppose vote-by-vote.

That said, the Winter Fuel issue will be very old news by 2028/9.

The LDs if Kingmakers could simply restore the WFA and reverse the IHT exemption removal for family farms via amendment to a Labour minority government's Budget and threaten to vote down the entire budget unless included

Except that its not going to be on their agenda by 2029.

The only reason its talked about today is its in the news today, come 2029 they'll have whatever priorities suit 2029 and not today's news.

Just like Labour screamed and screamed about the bedroom tax but once in office it wasn't their priority anymore.

At least half the LD seats are in rural areas and almost half LD voters are pensioners, it will be far more of an issue for them reversing the tractor tax and WFA cut than the bedroom tax will be for Labour now given the size of their majority. The LDs learnt their lesson from 2010-15 and will want more of a pound of flesh from any minority government before agreeing to support them.

Though Labour have managed to find huge payrises for their core voters such as train drivers and NHS GPs the Tories didn't even so. Reversing the bedroom tax was also never in Starmer's manifesto anyway

Interesting that Steve Baker said this evening that the Tories would never get anywhere until they start being serious and realise that such things as supporting the winter fuel payments for pensioners is unsustainable. I thought he was quite impressive.

Yes well if they lose all their pensioner core vote to the LDs and Reform the 2 remaining Tory MPs can be as serious as they like but nobody will be listening

HYUFD said:

Roger said:

HYUFD said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

HYUFD said:

david_herdson said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

OldKingCole said:

HYUFD said:

kinabalu said:

HYUFD said:

kinabalu said:

HYUFD said:

OldKingCole said:

HYUFD said:

RochdalePioneers said:

HYUFD said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

Yes, Labour under Corbyn had 150,000 more members than it does now under Starmer but it was the latter who won a general election.

It is not surprising more hardcore rightwingers have switched to Farage's Reform over the Tories, though in most polls the Tories are still ahead of Reform even if Reform have more members. Remember the main swing since July has been Labour to Reform, the Tories little changed. Some Tories would vote LD over Reform even if they would not join any party

As the Tories are on the back of historically their worst performance in the post Victorian era, I would have thought Reform syphoning off more from Labour than the Conservatives is scant relief for the remaining faithful. I believe you understand the damage working class hero and snake oil salesman Farage could do to the Labour Party but have missed that he has already done his work on your party.

Although to be fair I would have thought you would dovetail neatly into Reform. Afterall they do all the fun things you like. Elitism, Grammar schools, no inheritance tax, reducing the size of the state, privatisation of public services, fox hunting, repatriation of foreigners and the list continues. No hanging and flogging yet, although when Suella has her feet under the table who knows?

Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats on current polls purely as a result of Labour voters going Reform and FPTP even if the Tory vote is largely unchanged from July.

There is no doubt Reform are gaining, now on -32% higher in net favourability than either Labour on -35% or the Tories on -43%.

Kemi still has a higher net favourable on -31% compared to -34% for Farage and -36% for Starmer

https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/nigel-farage-reform-uk-now-has-more-members-than-the-conservative-party-qwd2wmcwc

I just don't understand how your brain works. You know politics. You are involved in politics. So you know as well as I do that the snapshot today *is not how people will vote in 4 years time*

The question is how the trends will play out. And the trends are moving away from you and towards Reform, on what feels like an exponential curve once you factor in that Reform now have all the money and the media attention.

"Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats". No, she won't. Which seats do you have in mind?

Electoral Calculus' average poll projection now has the Tories up 84 MPs to 205, Labour down 127 to 285, the LDs down 4 to 68 and Reform up 33 to 38 and the SNP up 7 to 16. Giving a hung parliament
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

Lab/LibDem coalition from the looks of it. If the LibDems are prepared to enter a coalition, of course.
Could take a centre-left Government through to 2034.

Of course, things will almost certainly change.

Indeed, though as the LDs oppose the tractor tax, oppose the winter fuel allowance cut and are more NIMBY on building in greenbelt land in the home counties could be quite some demands Sir Ed gives Sir Keir for his support

What is the tractor tax?

Labour hammering family farms with assets over £1 million with IHT which the LDs oppose

Unlikely to have tractors worth that much. And would that be IHT at half the normal rate with 10 years to pay it by any chance?

It would be IHT destroying family farms which have an average value of around £2 million.

Regardless of the policy value anyway the Tories, Reform, the LDs and SNP all oppose it so Starmer if he loses his majority either has to scrap it and the winter fuel allowance cut all the opposition parties also oppose or they all no confidence a Labour minority government and throw him out of office

By 2029 this will be old hat, and the big landowners, who are most affected, will have worked out deals with their accountants and solicitors.
The Winter Fuel Allowance will be long forgotten, as there will some directed form of support to the needy, not handouts for the likes of Big and myself.

No they won't, I live in a rural area and the loathing for this Labour government round here is unbelievable, rural areas will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with Labour and keeps the hated tractor tax.

Pensioners also will never forgive Labour either for their total betrayal, you even hear them at cafes whinging on Starmer's betrayal, they also will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with them and keeps the WFA cut.

Plus you have the employers and small businesses hammered by the NI for employers rise also furious with the government and Starmer and Reeves

I am with @OldKingCole on this

The universal WFP will not be reinstated, and there will be a very different set of problems and issues that will need innovative ways to resolve by 2029

Mel Stride has already said the triple lock is unaffordable and that will not be in the manifesto as it is unaffordable

To be honest, you should join reform as that is where your heart is and where they live, back in the 1950s, whereas the country has moved on and frankly I expect reform to become quite unpopular if they take Musk's money and side with Trump and his crazy ideas

In which case the Starmer government will be thrown out of office once it loses its majority as the LDs will hold the balance of power on current polls and want the universal WFP reinstated let alone Reform.

The Tories are a million miles from a majority too so Stride can say what he wants he won't be able to implement it without LD or Reform backing either

The Scots have a wonderful expression for you

You are just 'havering'

Look it up

It is just reality, the Tories, LDs, Reform and SNP would all back a no confidence vote in a Labour minority government unless it reverses the tractor tax and WFA cut. So unless Labour retains its majority at the next GE both those policies are doomed

You assume far too much there. The SNP will never (again) put the Tories in over Labour. The Lib Dems are very unlikely to with the Tories in their current state. And we can't have endless general elections so if it is a Con-/Lab-led govt choice then they'd go with Labour.

You don't need to No Confidence a minority government to get your preferred policies when you can oppose vote-by-vote.

That said, the Winter Fuel issue will be very old news by 2028/9.

The LDs if Kingmakers could simply restore the WFA and reverse the IHT exemption removal for family farms via amendment to a Labour minority government's Budget and threaten to vote down the entire budget unless included

Except that its not going to be on their agenda by 2029.

The only reason its talked about today is its in the news today, come 2029 they'll have whatever priorities suit 2029 and not today's news.

Just like Labour screamed and screamed about the bedroom tax but once in office it wasn't their priority anymore.

At least half the LD seats are in rural areas and almost half LD voters are pensioners, it will be far more of an issue for them reversing the tractor tax and WFA cut than the bedroom tax will be for Labour now given the size of their majority. The LDs learnt their lesson from 2010-15 and will want more of a pound of flesh from any minority government before agreeing to support them.

Though Labour have managed to find huge payrises for their core voters such as train drivers and NHS GPs the Tories didn't even so. Reversing the bedroom tax was also never in Starmer's manifesto anyway

Interesting that Steve Baker said this evening that the Tories would never get anywhere until they start being serious and realise that such things as supporting the winter fuel payments for pensioners is unsustainable. I thought he was quite impressive.

Yes well if they lose all their pensioner core vote to the LDs and Reform the 2 remaining Tory MPs can be as serious as they like but nobody will be listening

Steve Baker is correct and you simply are stuck in reform

On another topic. Do you know a Welsh musician called Karl Jenkins? I worked with him and his partner Mike Ratledge many times. He was my first choice for composing jingles particularly for cars and he was super cool.

What I didn't know till this evening is that he's now been knighted and has written the most popular piece of classical music written by a living composer. I'm shocked!

Oh my God, that is awesome. I loved their work in Soft Machine. Ratledge is on Third, a brilliant album. Ditto Fourth, their next album. (OK, they weren't great at album names.) Jenkins joined the band later. He's on albums like Bundles.

And, yes, Jenkins then went off to do jingles and then converted that into a contemporary classical crossover thing, starting with Adiemus (Ratledge is also on that one) and then the very successful "Palladio".

Here's a sexed up "Palladio": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nXb5UNI6nPs

bondegezou said:

LostPassword said:

spudgfsh said:

bondegezou said:

spudgfsh said:

rcs1000 said:

Cookie said:

rcs1000 said:

Cookie said:

rcs1000 said:

Cookie said:

kinabalu said:

Driver said:

malcolmg said:

kinabalu said:

williamglenn said:

LostPassword said:

The New York Times is reporting that Ukraine is nearly out of the ATACMs missiles supplied by the US, and Britain doesn't have many Storm Shadow missiles left.

The failure of Western countries to produce key armaments to supply to Ukraine is stark.

The failure of Biden to call Putin's bluff in 2022 instead of closing the embassy and telling the world that Ukraine would fall in three days continues to have dreadful consequences.

That's not washing. Biden supported Ukraine whilst being mindful of the escalation risk. You can quibble on the margins, eg too risk averse?, but in no way will a Russian victory, if it happens, be on his head.

he was wishy washy and did the absolute minimum, useless.

Perhaps even short of the absolute minimum.

Don't be ridiculous.

I don't think that's ridiculous. With even half-hearted American support Ukraine could have prevailed. But it suited America to have a stalemate, not least due to its impact on POO.

I don't think this is true at all.

I think Biden would much rather that Ukraine had prevailed, because it would have led to the downfall of Putin, which would hugely of been in his interests.

It's more accurate to say - as @williamglenn does - that Biden was excessively concerned about the risks of escalation, and overestimated Russia's strength. And that was a mistake.

A mistake, for what it's worth, that many others made too.

I'm really not sure it is in America's interests for Putin to be replaced. Tge chances of Putin being replaced with someone who is better for America seem quite a long way lessthan 50%.

Again, I don't think that's true at all.

Putin's Russia has been a constant thorn in the West. In Poland, it spent a fortune on supporting groups to get fracking banned, for example. It has constantly tried to increase division in the West.

Those actions have, historically, had no consequences.

Any new regime in Moscow is going to be concerned primarily with getting sanctions removed and rebuilding the Russian economy. On the hierarchy of needs for any regime, getting the people fed and less likely to evict you is massively more important than stirring up trouble abroad.

I'd like to think that's so. But alternatively it could decide to pursue whatever mad bastardry it happens to have on its agenda while it has the chance? Worldwide, the record of benign regimes replacing dictators is at best mixed.

I'm not expecting a benign regime.

But I do expect a regime that has learnt the hard way that invading your neighbours and messing in other countries democratic systems has consequences.

That requires us to grow some balls. It requires regime change in Moscow. And it requires us to set the incentives for the new government correctly.

We failed on all three of these historically.

What I'm expecting post Putin is instability. He's hollowed out the state, government and opposition of all potential replacements.

You might see a fracturing of the Russian Federation, with Chechnya, Ingushetia and Dagestan going for independence. That might even spread further. Kalmykia? Tartarstan? Buryatia? It might be 1917 all over again.

It's a possibility that's been postulated but I'd be surprised if it happened to any significant degree

A more likely consequence would be a further loosening of the bonds that tie some neighbouring countries to Russia. Controls like Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, etc, will look for closer relationships with other countries in the absence of Russia.

Turkey is the obvious alternate regional power.

MattW said:

On Ukraine and Western Alliances, one new fly in the ointment is that in 4 days Ukraine turns off it's transiting gas pipeline from Russia, as the contract finishes.

Countries quite heavily affected are Slovakia (Putin pandering, roughly) and Austria (trying to stay resolutely neutral), and to a lesser extent Hungary (Hungary !).

Barnesian said:

maxh said:

...

BartholomewRoberts said:

algarkirk said:

SonofContrarian said:

algarkirk said:

maxh said:

PB, apologies for a lengthy post of marginal interest to most. I'd appreciate advice, particularly from any thoughtful religious types, or agnostics who respect those who believe:

My wife is a Christian, I'm firmly agnostic. We have two kids, who after discussion together we have agreed to bring up as Christians until they can choose for themselves. As a result we are often in church as a family (whenever we are at home on a Sunday).

My wife's vicar has, understandably, taken an interest in converting me, which (short of incontrovertible divine revelation) he has no hope of doing. I've made this clear to him. We've been to the pub together once and had a good chat. He has asked me to read John's gospel and for us to meet again.

My reaction to all of this is twofold:
1. I want to continue meeting and discussing with him as a way of honouring my wife's faith and to be respectful of the church I regularly attend.
2. I have quite strong skeptical reactions to the gospels (in essence my view is that of Don Cupitt's that Jesus was an insightful itinerant whose disciples over-claimed for him after his death in a form of confirmation bias).

Here's my quandry: in my own inexpert way I
sense that the vicar isn't really up for a really robust discussion about this stuff; he has quite a bit of trauma in his own life (lost his first wife to cancer, relatives are mentally unwell) and the fervour with which he proclaims his own faith signals to me someone with plenty of their own demons to fight (I may be wholly inaccurate in this assessment, though he did say he found our last meeting difficult and didn't feel as though he did his faith justice in the way he responded to some of the questions I had).

I'm due to meet him for another chat in Jan. Do I
(a) Politely discuss John's gospel, skirting around some of my skepticism and keeping everything surface level, which feels like it is wasting both of our time;
(b) Engage fully, raising all the questions I have and arguing for my skeptical view on the basis that this respects the time he is putting into our relationship and that this is the conversation I'd find most interesting;
(c) Seek to extricate myself from the next meeting entirely in some way, whilst still respecting that this is an authority-figure for my wife;
(d) Do something else?

Feel free to tell me I'm being an arsehole if I have missed something important.

(b). If he can't cope with this he is in the wrong job.

Footnotes: Vicars who start off from John's gospel are often uncritical of how ancient texts work. It is a dense work rooted in a culture modern Christians can't comprehend. It's relationship to what we call history is very complicated.

The historical Jesus is substantially more than a decent itinerant. For a highly informed and critically acute view, EP Sanders 'The historical figure of Jesus' publ by Penguin is outstanding. Worth a read.

If your vicar hasn't read it then he probably hasn't read very much decent stuff. A lot just read American pop paperbacks by fundamentalists.

All Christians (including me) are agnostics, just like all the human race. Religion is not a knowable item.

Maybe get off the agnostic fence...And become an atheist..😏

All atheists are agnostics. Just like all theists (including me). Whether some subject is knowable depends on the the nature of the subject, not the opinion of the putative knower.

This is one of the trillion interesting insights of Kant's first critique.

All theists are atheists. I just believe in one fewer god than you do. When you understand why you dismiss all the other possible gods, you will understand why I dismiss yours.

Yes but there is a big difference between dismissing any specific god and dismissing god. How can you be confident that no god exists, rather than that algakirk's god doesn't exist?

It depends what you mean by "god". If you mean an omniscient omnipotent entity that created our world then it could be the creator of our simulation. A very advanced technology. But is it benevolent? Does the concept of god include benevolence?

Foxy said:

MattW said:

On Ukraine and Western Alliances, one new fly in the ointment is that in 4 days Ukraine turns off it's transiting gas pipeline from Russia, as the contract finishes.

Countries quite heavily affected are Slovakia (Putin pandering, roughly) and Austria (trying to stay resolutely neutral), and to a lesser extent Hungary (Hungary !).

It's quite astonishing really that Ukraine have continued the contract for Russian gas through 3 years of war.

LostPassword said:

Nigelb said:

Foxy said:

Driver said:

Foxy said:

Driver said:

Fishing said:

Foxy said:

Driver said:

Foxy said:

Casino_Royale said:

Northern_Al said:

Anybody who seriously thinks that the WFA cut, the IHT on farms issue, and the VAT on private school fees policy will be issues of significance in the 2028/29 GE must be bonkers, as must anybody who thinks that keying current polling figures into Electoral Calculus gives us a clue as to the outcome of that election.
Sorry HYUFD, but therefore it follows logically that you must be bonkers.

I'd almost argue the opposite, why wouldn't they be?

Where does this idea that people "forget" policies or measures that targeted them once a parliament approaches its conclusion come from?

Some might give up, accept it, or move onto other issues, but that's very far from a given.

Certainly so. I won't vote for a party that supports Brexit.

What is this "supports Brexit"? It's a part of history.

Just agreeing with CR. Voters have long memories and bear grudges.

I won't vote for a party that still supports the most collosal mistake of British foreign policy since Suez.

The Tories will become electable again when they support their policy of the half century to 2016 and want to join the EU. I don't expect it to happen any time soon.

The Tories didn't want to join the EU for half a century. In the 70s most of them supported joining the Common Market, which was very different from the EU, despite Ted Heath's lies about retaining sovereignty.

In the 90s Major just about got his party to pass the Maastricht treated, which spawned the EU.

And their policy in the 2010s was to have a referendum and implement the results, which they did, backed by the biggest democractic vote in this country's history, and endorsed by three general elections.

So there's no continuity in European policy for them to go back to, nor could there have been, as the EU has mutated and metastacised so much over that time.

Insofar as there was a consistent policy for that half century, it was "lie about what the European project was actually about".

To quote the Queens Speech at the State opening of Parliament in 1972:

"My Government will play a full and constructive part in the enlarged European Communities. They look forward to the opportunities membership will bring, for developing the country's full economic and industrial potential, for working out social and environmental policies on a European scale, and for increasing the influence of the enlarged Community for the benefit of the world at large."

It was always and explicitly more than a trading arrangement. Unless you believe that the Queen was lying to Parliament.

Yeah, as if that's a full description of the Project.

Perhaps the 1973 Queens speech in Hansard helps:

"In co-operation with other Member States My Government will play their full part in the further development of the European Community in accordance with the programme established at the European Summit in October 1972. This programme includes progress towards economic and monetary union; measures for the establishment of a regional development fund; and co-operation in foreign policy between Member States."

For a secret project the operational security wasn't very tight, with the Queen blabbing like that in Parliament.

An Inconvenient Truth.

The Brexiteer tendency did a great job in persuading everyone otherwise.

Show me a social movement and I'll show you a set of myths about the past. It was true in the English Civil War and it's as true now as then.

The problem pro-Europeans have is that they stopped telling a good convincing story. They seemed to think it was enough to dismiss the stories of their opponents.

algarkirk said:

Barnesian said:

maxh said:

...

BartholomewRoberts said:

algarkirk said:

SonofContrarian said:

algarkirk said:

maxh said:

PB, apologies for a lengthy post of marginal interest to most. I'd appreciate advice, particularly from any thoughtful religious types, or agnostics who respect those who believe:

My wife is a Christian, I'm firmly agnostic. We have two kids, who after discussion together we have agreed to bring up as Christians until they can choose for themselves. As a result we are often in church as a family (whenever we are at home on a Sunday).

My wife's vicar has, understandably, taken an interest in converting me, which (short of incontrovertible divine revelation) he has no hope of doing. I've made this clear to him. We've been to the pub together once and had a good chat. He has asked me to read John's gospel and for us to meet again.

My reaction to all of this is twofold:
1. I want to continue meeting and discussing with him as a way of honouring my wife's faith and to be respectful of the church I regularly attend.
2. I have quite strong skeptical reactions to the gospels (in essence my view is that of Don Cupitt's that Jesus was an insightful itinerant whose disciples over-claimed for him after his death in a form of confirmation bias).

Here's my quandry: in my own inexpert way I
sense that the vicar isn't really up for a really robust discussion about this stuff; he has quite a bit of trauma in his own life (lost his first wife to cancer, relatives are mentally unwell) and the fervour with which he proclaims his own faith signals to me someone with plenty of their own demons to fight (I may be wholly inaccurate in this assessment, though he did say he found our last meeting difficult and didn't feel as though he did his faith justice in the way he responded to some of the questions I had).

I'm due to meet him for another chat in Jan. Do I
(a) Politely discuss John's gospel, skirting around some of my skepticism and keeping everything surface level, which feels like it is wasting both of our time;
(b) Engage fully, raising all the questions I have and arguing for my skeptical view on the basis that this respects the time he is putting into our relationship and that this is the conversation I'd find most interesting;
(c) Seek to extricate myself from the next meeting entirely in some way, whilst still respecting that this is an authority-figure for my wife;
(d) Do something else?

Feel free to tell me I'm being an arsehole if I have missed something important.

(b). If he can't cope with this he is in the wrong job.

Footnotes: Vicars who start off from John's gospel are often uncritical of how ancient texts work. It is a dense work rooted in a culture modern Christians can't comprehend. It's relationship to what we call history is very complicated.

The historical Jesus is substantially more than a decent itinerant. For a highly informed and critically acute view, EP Sanders 'The historical figure of Jesus' publ by Penguin is outstanding. Worth a read.

If your vicar hasn't read it then he probably hasn't read very much decent stuff. A lot just read American pop paperbacks by fundamentalists.

All Christians (including me) are agnostics, just like all the human race. Religion is not a knowable item.

Maybe get off the agnostic fence...And become an atheist..😏

All atheists are agnostics. Just like all theists (including me). Whether some subject is knowable depends on the the nature of the subject, not the opinion of the putative knower.

This is one of the trillion interesting insights of Kant's first critique.

All theists are atheists. I just believe in one fewer god than you do. When you understand why you dismiss all the other possible gods, you will understand why I dismiss yours.

Yes but there is a big difference between dismissing any specific god and dismissing god. How can you be confident that no god exists, rather than that algakirk's god doesn't exist?

It depends what you mean by "god". If you mean an omniscient omnipotent entity that created our world then it could be the creator of our simulation. A very advanced technology. But is it benevolent? Does the concept of god include benevolence?

Obviously a concept of God can be dressed up with lots of fancy stuff; but the most basic aspect of the monotheistic god - the sort whose definition includes there being just the one - is that there is a mindful and intentional uncaused cause of all existence and that is what we name as god.

This description would be common to Islam, Christianity, Judaism, Aristotle and the intuitions of billions of people throughout history who reflect on the questions posed by our happening to be here.

MattW said:

Barnesian said:

maxh said:

...

BartholomewRoberts said:

algarkirk said:

SonofContrarian said:

algarkirk said:

maxh said:

PB, apologies for a lengthy post of marginal interest to most. I'd appreciate advice, particularly from any thoughtful religious types, or agnostics who respect those who believe:

My wife is a Christian, I'm firmly agnostic. We have two kids, who after discussion together we have agreed to bring up as Christians until they can choose for themselves. As a result we are often in church as a family (whenever we are at home on a Sunday).

My wife's vicar has, understandably, taken an interest in converting me, which (short of incontrovertible divine revelation) he has no hope of doing. I've made this clear to him. We've been to the pub together once and had a good chat. He has asked me to read John's gospel and for us to meet again.

My reaction to all of this is twofold:
1. I want to continue meeting and discussing with him as a way of honouring my wife's faith and to be respectful of the church I regularly attend.
2. I have quite strong skeptical reactions to the gospels (in essence my view is that of Don Cupitt's that Jesus was an insightful itinerant whose disciples over-claimed for him after his death in a form of confirmation bias).

Here's my quandry: in my own inexpert way I
sense that the vicar isn't really up for a really robust discussion about this stuff; he has quite a bit of trauma in his own life (lost his first wife to cancer, relatives are mentally unwell) and the fervour with which he proclaims his own faith signals to me someone with plenty of their own demons to fight (I may be wholly inaccurate in this assessment, though he did say he found our last meeting difficult and didn't feel as though he did his faith justice in the way he responded to some of the questions I had).

I'm due to meet him for another chat in Jan. Do I
(a) Politely discuss John's gospel, skirting around some of my skepticism and keeping everything surface level, which feels like it is wasting both of our time;
(b) Engage fully, raising all the questions I have and arguing for my skeptical view on the basis that this respects the time he is putting into our relationship and that this is the conversation I'd find most interesting;
(c) Seek to extricate myself from the next meeting entirely in some way, whilst still respecting that this is an authority-figure for my wife;
(d) Do something else?

Feel free to tell me I'm being an arsehole if I have missed something important.

(b). If he can't cope with this he is in the wrong job.

Footnotes: Vicars who start off from John's gospel are often uncritical of how ancient texts work. It is a dense work rooted in a culture modern Christians can't comprehend. It's relationship to what we call history is very complicated.

The historical Jesus is substantially more than a decent itinerant. For a highly informed and critically acute view, EP Sanders 'The historical figure of Jesus' publ by Penguin is outstanding. Worth a read.

If your vicar hasn't read it then he probably hasn't read very much decent stuff. A lot just read American pop paperbacks by fundamentalists.

All Christians (including me) are agnostics, just like all the human race. Religion is not a knowable item.

Maybe get off the agnostic fence...And become an atheist..😏

All atheists are agnostics. Just like all theists (including me). Whether some subject is knowable depends on the the nature of the subject, not the opinion of the putative knower.

This is one of the trillion interesting insights of Kant's first critique.

All theists are atheists. I just believe in one fewer god than you do. When you understand why you dismiss all the other possible gods, you will understand why I dismiss yours.

Yes but there is a big difference between dismissing any specific god and dismissing god. How can you be confident that no god exists, rather than that algakirk's god doesn't exist?

It depends what you mean by "god". If you mean an omniscient omnipotent entity that created our world then it could be the creator of our simulation. A very advanced technology. But is it benevolent? Does the concept of god include benevolence?

Quite fun on a day when Don Cupitt has been mentioned !

He describes himself as a Christian non-realist, and has been exploring different angles on that since the 1960s.

To wit:
"In his writings Cupitt sometimes describes himself as a Christian non-realist, by which he means that he follows certain spiritual practices and attempts to live by ethical standards traditionally associated with Christianity but without believing in the actual existence of the underlying metaphysical entities (such as "Christ" and "God")."

A mistake that imo some reductionists make is to pretend that it is all about the existence or not of a God or gods. Then they are uncomfortable when a freestanding set of 'logical' 'assertions' is not accepted as 'reality'. I'd say this is where some of the more tunnel-visioned Dawkins Disciples went wrong; they are stuck in a rabbit hole on one side of an artificial sacred-secular divide they have created in their own heads.

I've occasionally looked over the edge of Cupitt's speculations, but I've always felt that it is a bit far from the practical, and tend to treat it like Pope's Pierian spring.

MattW said:

Nigelb said:

Roger said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Roger said:

HYUFD said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

HYUFD said:

david_herdson said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

OldKingCole said:

HYUFD said:

kinabalu said:

HYUFD said:

kinabalu said:

HYUFD said:

OldKingCole said:

HYUFD said:

RochdalePioneers said:

HYUFD said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

Yes, Labour under Corbyn had 150,000 more members than it does now under Starmer but it was the latter who won a general election.

It is not surprising more hardcore rightwingers have switched to Farage's Reform over the Tories, though in most polls the Tories are still ahead of Reform even if Reform have more members. Remember the main swing since July has been Labour to Reform, the Tories little changed. Some Tories would vote LD over Reform even if they would not join any party

As the Tories are on the back of historically their worst performance in the post Victorian era, I would have thought Reform syphoning off more from Labour than the Conservatives is scant relief for the remaining faithful. I believe you understand the damage working class hero and snake oil salesman Farage could do to the Labour Party but have missed that he has already done his work on your party.

Although to be fair I would have thought you would dovetail neatly into Reform. Afterall they do all the fun things you like. Elitism, Grammar schools, no inheritance tax, reducing the size of the state, privatisation of public services, fox hunting, repatriation of foreigners and the list continues. No hanging and flogging yet, although when Suella has her feet under the table who knows?

Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats on current polls purely as a result of Labour voters going Reform and FPTP even if the Tory vote is largely unchanged from July.

There is no doubt Reform are gaining, now on -32% higher in net favourability than either Labour on -35% or the Tories on -43%.

Kemi still has a higher net favourable on -31% compared to -34% for Farage and -36% for Starmer

https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/nigel-farage-reform-uk-now-has-more-members-than-the-conservative-party-qwd2wmcwc

I just don't understand how your brain works. You know politics. You are involved in politics. So you know as well as I do that the snapshot today *is not how people will vote in 4 years time*

The question is how the trends will play out. And the trends are moving away from you and towards Reform, on what feels like an exponential curve once you factor in that Reform now have all the money and the media attention.

"Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats". No, she won't. Which seats do you have in mind?

Electoral Calculus' average poll projection now has the Tories up 84 MPs to 205, Labour down 127 to 285, the LDs down 4 to 68 and Reform up 33 to 38 and the SNP up 7 to 16. Giving a hung parliament
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

Lab/LibDem coalition from the looks of it. If the LibDems are prepared to enter a coalition, of course.
Could take a centre-left Government through to 2034.

Of course, things will almost certainly change.

Indeed, though as the LDs oppose the tractor tax, oppose the winter fuel allowance cut and are more NIMBY on building in greenbelt land in the home counties could be quite some demands Sir Ed gives Sir Keir for his support

What is the tractor tax?

Labour hammering family farms with assets over £1 million with IHT which the LDs oppose

Unlikely to have tractors worth that much. And would that be IHT at half the normal rate with 10 years to pay it by any chance?

It would be IHT destroying family farms which have an average value of around £2 million.

Regardless of the policy value anyway the Tories, Reform, the LDs and SNP all oppose it so Starmer if he loses his majority either has to scrap it and the winter fuel allowance cut all the opposition parties also oppose or they all no confidence a Labour minority government and throw him out of office

By 2029 this will be old hat, and the big landowners, who are most affected, will have worked out deals with their accountants and solicitors.
The Winter Fuel Allowance will be long forgotten, as there will some directed form of support to the needy, not handouts for the likes of Big and myself.

No they won't, I live in a rural area and the loathing for this Labour government round here is unbelievable, rural areas will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with Labour and keeps the hated tractor tax.

Pensioners also will never forgive Labour either for their total betrayal, you even hear them at cafes whinging on Starmer's betrayal, they also will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with them and keeps the WFA cut.

Plus you have the employers and small businesses hammered by the NI for employers rise also furious with the government and Starmer and Reeves

I am with @OldKingCole on this

The universal WFP will not be reinstated, and there will be a very different set of problems and issues that will need innovative ways to resolve by 2029

Mel Stride has already said the triple lock is unaffordable and that will not be in the manifesto as it is unaffordable

To be honest, you should join reform as that is where your heart is and where they live, back in the 1950s, whereas the country has moved on and frankly I expect reform to become quite unpopular if they take Musk's money and side with Trump and his crazy ideas

In which case the Starmer government will be thrown out of office once it loses its majority as the LDs will hold the balance of power on current polls and want the universal WFP reinstated let alone Reform.

The Tories are a million miles from a majority too so Stride can say what he wants he won't be able to implement it without LD or Reform backing either

The Scots have a wonderful expression for you

You are just 'havering'

Look it up

It is just reality, the Tories, LDs, Reform and SNP would all back a no confidence vote in a Labour minority government unless it reverses the tractor tax and WFA cut. So unless Labour retains its majority at the next GE both those policies are doomed

You assume far too much there. The SNP will never (again) put the Tories in over Labour. The Lib Dems are very unlikely to with the Tories in their current state. And we can't have endless general elections so if it is a Con-/Lab-led govt choice then they'd go with Labour.

You don't need to No Confidence a minority government to get your preferred policies when you can oppose vote-by-vote.

That said, the Winter Fuel issue will be very old news by 2028/9.

The LDs if Kingmakers could simply restore the WFA and reverse the IHT exemption removal for family farms via amendment to a Labour minority government's Budget and threaten to vote down the entire budget unless included

Except that its not going to be on their agenda by 2029.

The only reason its talked about today is its in the news today, come 2029 they'll have whatever priorities suit 2029 and not today's news.

Just like Labour screamed and screamed about the bedroom tax but once in office it wasn't their priority anymore.

At least half the LD seats are in rural areas and almost half LD voters are pensioners, it will be far more of an issue for them reversing the tractor tax and WFA cut than the bedroom tax will be for Labour now given the size of their majority. The LDs learnt their lesson from 2010-15 and will want more of a pound of flesh from any minority government before agreeing to support them.

Though Labour have managed to find huge payrises for their core voters such as train drivers and NHS GPs the Tories didn't even so. Reversing the bedroom tax was also never in Starmer's manifesto anyway

Interesting that Steve Baker said this evening that the Tories would never get anywhere until they start being serious and realise that such things as supporting the winter fuel payments for pensioners is unsustainable. I thought he was quite impressive.

Yes well if they lose all their pensioner core vote to the LDs and Reform the 2 remaining Tory MPs can be as serious as they like but nobody will be listening

HYUFD said:

Roger said:

HYUFD said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

HYUFD said:

david_herdson said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

OldKingCole said:

HYUFD said:

kinabalu said:

HYUFD said:

kinabalu said:

HYUFD said:

OldKingCole said:

HYUFD said:

RochdalePioneers said:

HYUFD said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

Yes, Labour under Corbyn had 150,000 more members than it does now under Starmer but it was the latter who won a general election.

It is not surprising more hardcore rightwingers have switched to Farage's Reform over the Tories, though in most polls the Tories are still ahead of Reform even if Reform have more members. Remember the main swing since July has been Labour to Reform, the Tories little changed. Some Tories would vote LD over Reform even if they would not join any party

As the Tories are on the back of historically their worst performance in the post Victorian era, I would have thought Reform syphoning off more from Labour than the Conservatives is scant relief for the remaining faithful. I believe you understand the damage working class hero and snake oil salesman Farage could do to the Labour Party but have missed that he has already done his work on your party.

Although to be fair I would have thought you would dovetail neatly into Reform. Afterall they do all the fun things you like. Elitism, Grammar schools, no inheritance tax, reducing the size of the state, privatisation of public services, fox hunting, repatriation of foreigners and the list continues. No hanging and flogging yet, although when Suella has her feet under the table who knows?

Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats on current polls purely as a result of Labour voters going Reform and FPTP even if the Tory vote is largely unchanged from July.

There is no doubt Reform are gaining, now on -32% higher in net favourability than either Labour on -35% or the Tories on -43%.

Kemi still has a higher net favourable on -31% compared to -34% for Farage and -36% for Starmer

https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/nigel-farage-reform-uk-now-has-more-members-than-the-conservative-party-qwd2wmcwc

I just don't understand how your brain works. You know politics. You are involved in politics. So you know as well as I do that the snapshot today *is not how people will vote in 4 years time*

The question is how the trends will play out. And the trends are moving away from you and towards Reform, on what feels like an exponential curve once you factor in that Reform now have all the money and the media attention.

"Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats". No, she won't. Which seats do you have in mind?

Electoral Calculus' average poll projection now has the Tories up 84 MPs to 205, Labour down 127 to 285, the LDs down 4 to 68 and Reform up 33 to 38 and the SNP up 7 to 16. Giving a hung parliament
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

Lab/LibDem coalition from the looks of it. If the LibDems are prepared to enter a coalition, of course.
Could take a centre-left Government through to 2034.

Of course, things will almost certainly change.

Indeed, though as the LDs oppose the tractor tax, oppose the winter fuel allowance cut and are more NIMBY on building in greenbelt land in the home counties could be quite some demands Sir Ed gives Sir Keir for his support

What is the tractor tax?

Labour hammering family farms with assets over £1 million with IHT which the LDs oppose

Unlikely to have tractors worth that much. And would that be IHT at half the normal rate with 10 years to pay it by any chance?

It would be IHT destroying family farms which have an average value of around £2 million.

Regardless of the policy value anyway the Tories, Reform, the LDs and SNP all oppose it so Starmer if he loses his majority either has to scrap it and the winter fuel allowance cut all the opposition parties also oppose or they all no confidence a Labour minority government and throw him out of office

By 2029 this will be old hat, and the big landowners, who are most affected, will have worked out deals with their accountants and solicitors.
The Winter Fuel Allowance will be long forgotten, as there will some directed form of support to the needy, not handouts for the likes of Big and myself.

No they won't, I live in a rural area and the loathing for this Labour government round here is unbelievable, rural areas will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with Labour and keeps the hated tractor tax.

Pensioners also will never forgive Labour either for their total betrayal, you even hear them at cafes whinging on Starmer's betrayal, they also will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with them and keeps the WFA cut.

Plus you have the employers and small businesses hammered by the NI for employers rise also furious with the government and Starmer and Reeves

I am with @OldKingCole on this

The universal WFP will not be reinstated, and there will be a very different set of problems and issues that will need innovative ways to resolve by 2029

Mel Stride has already said the triple lock is unaffordable and that will not be in the manifesto as it is unaffordable

To be honest, you should join reform as that is where your heart is and where they live, back in the 1950s, whereas the country has moved on and frankly I expect reform to become quite unpopular if they take Musk's money and side with Trump and his crazy ideas

In which case the Starmer government will be thrown out of office once it loses its majority as the LDs will hold the balance of power on current polls and want the universal WFP reinstated let alone Reform.

The Tories are a million miles from a majority too so Stride can say what he wants he won't be able to implement it without LD or Reform backing either

The Scots have a wonderful expression for you

You are just 'havering'

Look it up

It is just reality, the Tories, LDs, Reform and SNP would all back a no confidence vote in a Labour minority government unless it reverses the tractor tax and WFA cut. So unless Labour retains its majority at the next GE both those policies are doomed

You assume far too much there. The SNP will never (again) put the Tories in over Labour. The Lib Dems are very unlikely to with the Tories in their current state. And we can't have endless general elections so if it is a Con-/Lab-led govt choice then they'd go with Labour.

You don't need to No Confidence a minority government to get your preferred policies when you can oppose vote-by-vote.

That said, the Winter Fuel issue will be very old news by 2028/9.

The LDs if Kingmakers could simply restore the WFA and reverse the IHT exemption removal for family farms via amendment to a Labour minority government's Budget and threaten to vote down the entire budget unless included

Except that its not going to be on their agenda by 2029.

The only reason its talked about today is its in the news today, come 2029 they'll have whatever priorities suit 2029 and not today's news.

Just like Labour screamed and screamed about the bedroom tax but once in office it wasn't their priority anymore.

At least half the LD seats are in rural areas and almost half LD voters are pensioners, it will be far more of an issue for them reversing the tractor tax and WFA cut than the bedroom tax will be for Labour now given the size of their majority. The LDs learnt their lesson from 2010-15 and will want more of a pound of flesh from any minority government before agreeing to support them.

Though Labour have managed to find huge payrises for their core voters such as train drivers and NHS GPs the Tories didn't even so. Reversing the bedroom tax was also never in Starmer's manifesto anyway

Interesting that Steve Baker said this evening that the Tories would never get anywhere until they start being serious and realise that such things as supporting the winter fuel payments for pensioners is unsustainable. I thought he was quite impressive.

Yes well if they lose all their pensioner core vote to the LDs and Reform the 2 remaining Tory MPs can be as serious as they like but nobody will be listening

HYUFD said:

Roger said:

HYUFD said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

HYUFD said:

david_herdson said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

OldKingCole said:

HYUFD said:

kinabalu said:

HYUFD said:

kinabalu said:

HYUFD said:

OldKingCole said:

HYUFD said:

RochdalePioneers said:

HYUFD said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

Yes, Labour under Corbyn had 150,000 more members than it does now under Starmer but it was the latter who won a general election.

It is not surprising more hardcore rightwingers have switched to Farage's Reform over the Tories, though in most polls the Tories are still ahead of Reform even if Reform have more members. Remember the main swing since July has been Labour to Reform, the Tories little changed. Some Tories would vote LD over Reform even if they would not join any party

As the Tories are on the back of historically their worst performance in the post Victorian era, I would have thought Reform syphoning off more from Labour than the Conservatives is scant relief for the remaining faithful. I believe you understand the damage working class hero and snake oil salesman Farage could do to the Labour Party but have missed that he has already done his work on your party.

Although to be fair I would have thought you would dovetail neatly into Reform. Afterall they do all the fun things you like. Elitism, Grammar schools, no inheritance tax, reducing the size of the state, privatisation of public services, fox hunting, repatriation of foreigners and the list continues. No hanging and flogging yet, although when Suella has her feet under the table who knows?

Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats on current polls purely as a result of Labour voters going Reform and FPTP even if the Tory vote is largely unchanged from July.

There is no doubt Reform are gaining, now on -32% higher in net favourability than either Labour on -35% or the Tories on -43%.

Kemi still has a higher net favourable on -31% compared to -34% for Farage and -36% for Starmer

https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/nigel-farage-reform-uk-now-has-more-members-than-the-conservative-party-qwd2wmcwc

I just don't understand how your brain works. You know politics. You are involved in politics. So you know as well as I do that the snapshot today *is not how people will vote in 4 years time*

The question is how the trends will play out. And the trends are moving away from you and towards Reform, on what feels like an exponential curve once you factor in that Reform now have all the money and the media attention.

"Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats". No, she won't. Which seats do you have in mind?

Electoral Calculus' average poll projection now has the Tories up 84 MPs to 205, Labour down 127 to 285, the LDs down 4 to 68 and Reform up 33 to 38 and the SNP up 7 to 16. Giving a hung parliament
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

Lab/LibDem coalition from the looks of it. If the LibDems are prepared to enter a coalition, of course.
Could take a centre-left Government through to 2034.

Of course, things will almost certainly change.

Indeed, though as the LDs oppose the tractor tax, oppose the winter fuel allowance cut and are more NIMBY on building in greenbelt land in the home counties could be quite some demands Sir Ed gives Sir Keir for his support

What is the tractor tax?

Labour hammering family farms with assets over £1 million with IHT which the LDs oppose

Unlikely to have tractors worth that much. And would that be IHT at half the normal rate with 10 years to pay it by any chance?

It would be IHT destroying family farms which have an average value of around £2 million.

Regardless of the policy value anyway the Tories, Reform, the LDs and SNP all oppose it so Starmer if he loses his majority either has to scrap it and the winter fuel allowance cut all the opposition parties also oppose or they all no confidence a Labour minority government and throw him out of office

By 2029 this will be old hat, and the big landowners, who are most affected, will have worked out deals with their accountants and solicitors.
The Winter Fuel Allowance will be long forgotten, as there will some directed form of support to the needy, not handouts for the likes of Big and myself.

No they won't, I live in a rural area and the loathing for this Labour government round here is unbelievable, rural areas will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with Labour and keeps the hated tractor tax.

Pensioners also will never forgive Labour either for their total betrayal, you even hear them at cafes whinging on Starmer's betrayal, they also will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with them and keeps the WFA cut.

Plus you have the employers and small businesses hammered by the NI for employers rise also furious with the government and Starmer and Reeves

I am with @OldKingCole on this

The universal WFP will not be reinstated, and there will be a very different set of problems and issues that will need innovative ways to resolve by 2029

Mel Stride has already said the triple lock is unaffordable and that will not be in the manifesto as it is unaffordable

To be honest, you should join reform as that is where your heart is and where they live, back in the 1950s, whereas the country has moved on and frankly I expect reform to become quite unpopular if they take Musk's money and side with Trump and his crazy ideas

In which case the Starmer government will be thrown out of office once it loses its majority as the LDs will hold the balance of power on current polls and want the universal WFP reinstated let alone Reform.

The Tories are a million miles from a majority too so Stride can say what he wants he won't be able to implement it without LD or Reform backing either

The Scots have a wonderful expression for you

You are just 'havering'

Look it up

It is just reality, the Tories, LDs, Reform and SNP would all back a no confidence vote in a Labour minority government unless it reverses the tractor tax and WFA cut. So unless Labour retains its majority at the next GE both those policies are doomed

You assume far too much there. The SNP will never (again) put the Tories in over Labour. The Lib Dems are very unlikely to with the Tories in their current state. And we can't have endless general elections so if it is a Con-/Lab-led govt choice then they'd go with Labour.

You don't need to No Confidence a minority government to get your preferred policies when you can oppose vote-by-vote.

That said, the Winter Fuel issue will be very old news by 2028/9.

The LDs if Kingmakers could simply restore the WFA and reverse the IHT exemption removal for family farms via amendment to a Labour minority government's Budget and threaten to vote down the entire budget unless included

Except that its not going to be on their agenda by 2029.

The only reason its talked about today is its in the news today, come 2029 they'll have whatever priorities suit 2029 and not today's news.

Just like Labour screamed and screamed about the bedroom tax but once in office it wasn't their priority anymore.

At least half the LD seats are in rural areas and almost half LD voters are pensioners, it will be far more of an issue for them reversing the tractor tax and WFA cut than the bedroom tax will be for Labour now given the size of their majority. The LDs learnt their lesson from 2010-15 and will want more of a pound of flesh from any minority government before agreeing to support them.

Though Labour have managed to find huge payrises for their core voters such as train drivers and NHS GPs the Tories didn't even so. Reversing the bedroom tax was also never in Starmer's manifesto anyway

Interesting that Steve Baker said this evening that the Tories would never get anywhere until they start being serious and realise that such things as supporting the winter fuel payments for pensioners is unsustainable. I thought he was quite impressive.

Yes well if they lose all their pensioner core vote to the LDs and Reform the 2 remaining Tory MPs can be as serious as they like but nobody will be listening

Steve Baker is correct and you simply are stuck in reform

On another topic. Do you know a Welsh musician called Karl Jenkins? I worked with him and his partner Mike Ratledge many times. He was my first choice for composing jingles particularly for cars and he was super cool.

What I didn't know till this evening is that he's now been knighted and has written the most popular piece of classical music written by a living composer. I'm shocked!

Jeez, Roger.
I thought everyone knows The Armed Man.

I haven't heard either of the man or his music. Having a look, the ones I seem to recognise are the advertising tunes - clearly I work off a visual cue. To me, he makes 'textures' a little like Enya, and for me I don't think that is enough unless there is something else alongside it.

In some ways I find contemporary dance easier to appreciate than 'classical' music.