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Great expectations for 2025 – politicalbetting.com
Great expectations for 2025 – politicalbetting.com
And looking forward, do you think 2025 will be a good or a bad year?A good/great year: 40%An average year: 28%A bad/terrible year: 18%https://t.co/lpff6BjAH8 pic.twitter.com/jgcqbWkXka
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If he can't, and instead resorts to ranting inanely about sharks and e-boats while nothing much happens, it will be an average year.
Hard to see how it will be a good year economically.
1) Vladimir Putin will come up with a new policy on the Ukraine war which involves withdrawal of all Russian troops and not killing people.
2) The Supreme Court will rule 8-0 that Donald Trump as a mad dangerous fascist who has tried to overthrow the government of the United States is ineligible to be president under the 14th amendment.
3) Clarence Thomas will honourably recuse himself from every case involving Donald Trump.
4) The republican nominee will be somebody sane and the democratic nominee will be somebody aged below 107. The winner will be decided by an arm wrestle rather than all that boring and outdated nonsense with the Electoral College so the Russians/Republicans can’t rig the vote.
5) Rishi Sunak will call an election at an opportune moment.
6) Inspired however by the enthusiastic endorsement of @bigJohnowls, Keir Starmer will win an overall majority of around 250.
7) Despite their shattering defeat, the Tories see sense and elect Penny Mordaunt as their new leader rather than a complete nut case (the complete nut case in question being Suella Braverman)
8) Jos Buttler and Ben Stokes will resign. The England cricket team led by Zak Crawley will win every single test plus a one day international against a scratch team from Outer Mongolia.
9) Lancashire will have their finest ever year in the championship inspired by their new coach Dale Benkenstein.
And finally, just in case you thought I was serious:
10) @Leon will be proved right about something.
1) Correct
2) Correct
3) Correct
4) Partially correct. The Democrat turned out to be 60 rather than 107, otherwise bang on.
5) Correct
6) Rather less correct than is healthy given the voteshare, but I was right about Chesterfield's finest, at least sofa.
7) Partially correct. It wasn't Braverman, but...
8) Correct (in fact, worse than correct as McCullum has taken over the white ball side too).
9) Correct. And I would just like to thank Lancashire for relieving Gloucestershire of the incubus that was Dale Benkenstein.
10) Well...enough said.
https://youtu.be/NhLNq2VXdDA?si=j1SBfJT2merEEUze&t=125
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/healthandlifeexpectancies/articles/lifeexpectancycalculator/2019-06-07
Good luck to you, but statistically you should probably have had your crisis already.
Just so long as the Tories don't try more sketches by Bozza.
https://x.com/afneil/status/1870366678204223720?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
The events in Magdeburg are horrific. It is a small comfort that they are not as bad as some reports. We again see why we should be cautious about rushing to conclusions.
But as ever, his view will modify to incorporate the new information. But it will still be hate-filled.
I fear that in 2025 we will pay more of the consequences of this ineptitude with a modest recession, rising unemployment and virtually no growth at all. Sooner or later there is going to have to be a reset and its not going to be pleasant. We might keep things staggering on until 2026 unless Trump causes a crisis sooner than expected.
There are voices last evening arguing for drastic action to be taken against “radical Islam” but the usual lack of coherence over what form this would take.
Are we advocating banning burqas and nijabs or do we go further? Do we close mosques and madrassas? There was also a reference or two to “forced assimilation”.
Those who clearly see a lot of the current societal problems stemming from Islam need to explain what their version of resolving these problems looks like. Instead of constantly berating “liberals” and “centrist dads”, come out and tell us what you want or what you think Reform should be advocating.
Oh, you didn't mean Leon?
I'm astonished at so much optimism. Glad to hear it, I suppose, but where does it come from? In my experience the green shoots of improvement in any field need to be quite high before people generally recognise they are there. And so many people are struggling terribly with life. Is it perhaps a feeling that things can't possibly get any worse?
So I was saying Sunak *wouldn't* call an election at an opportune moment.
Greece and Spain needed the disastrous euro crisis on top of the global financial crisis to introduce more sensible economic policies. Argentina needed two decades of underperformance and very high inflation. It is much easier for countries to coast along, with everything slowly getting shabbier and the hard-working and enterprising, and the young, in particular, getting screwed over, but nothing drastically and suddenly changing for the worse, which is what we're doing.
Except - for the 30 million views of county livestreams.
https://www.gloscricket.co.uk/news/professional-counties-reach-30-million-live-stream-views/
Fifty years of propaganda telling us how lower personal taxation will be our economic salvation have got us the sum total of nowhere. Reeves would have been more economically honest had she raised basic rate tax to 25p and higher rate to 50p.
Even now, we hear on a regular basis about the “evils” of public spending and how we can fire anywhere between 50-90% of civil servants with no consequences. I’m not disputing there isn’t waste in the public sector but there’s no pot of gold at the end of that rainbow.
1. Those who actively hope it’s an Islamic terror attack.
2. Those who actively hope it’s a mental health incident or other and not Islam related.
3. Those who are more passively worried that it’s an Islamic terror attack and will affect “their side”.
4. Those who are more passively worried it’s a different motive and will affect “their side”.
5. People who aren’t twats who wait to find out what happened.
Well, I did make a fair whack on the UK GE but Mystic Meg I was not.
Only thing I'll claim is that I was saying Starmer would be a one-term PM even before the election, and was much pilloried for it.
But then, I was convinced I was still 27 until I got to 62, when I had to reassess. "Late middle age" is proving quite a moveable feast.
Not that, as an agnostic, I'm very good at praying. But it's an instinctive reaction.
Copy the Danish Social Democrats
'We stood aside, watching for any countenance we knew; and presently great bundles of paper began to be carried out—bundles in bags, bundles too large to be got into any bags, immense masses of papers of all shapes and no shapes, which the bearers staggered under, and threw down for the time being, anyhow, on the Hall pavement, while they went back to bring out more. Even these clerks were laughing. We glanced at the papers, and seeing Jarndyce and Jarndyce everywhere, asked an official-looking person who was standing in the midst of them, whether the cause was over. "Yes," he said; "it was all up with it at last!" and burst out laughing too. ...
"Mr. Kenge," said Allan, appearing enlightened all in a moment. "Excuse me, our time presses. Do I understand that the whole estate is found to have been absorbed in costs?"
"Hem! I believe so," returned Mr. Kenge. "Mr. Vholes, what do you say?"
"I believe so," said Mr. Vholes.
"And that thus the suit lapses and melts away?"
"Probably," returned Mr. Kenge. "Mr. Vholes?"
"Probably," said Mr. Vholes.'
Isn't it a matter of what the question means? 'Is this going to be a great year for Sudan, Ukraine, Gaza, Afghanistan, the homeless, middling income people trying to buy a house in Chelsea.' No.
But from my rural Cumbrian perch, most people most of the time separate out Politics and Bad Stuff from their daily lives of friends, babies, school run, pubs, work, gym, family, shopping, days out, and think life is fine.
2024 was awful - see above. 2024 was great. Two new baby granddaughters in October. Both fine, wanted, loved...2025 will be like this too.
But neither of those explanations feels especially kind.
Yes, there's training and networking, but neither of those requires everyone in every, or even most, days.
And the bottom line seems trivial. Reducing office space saves businesses a lot of money, even if you allow for properly equipping staff. And not commuting saves staff time, significantly increasing their happiness.
By saying you were right about everything, having been wrong about many things, you are wrong, and therefore demonstrably wrong in your claim to be right about everything.
Bertrand Russell could explain this to you in more detail.
https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/russell-paradox/
🌞
- a full reimagining of the state from ground up. Concentrate on only those activities where there is clear evidence that the state does a better job than the private sector AND where there is overwhelming public support. That dooms items such as foreign aid and farming subsidies for a start
- building on that, constant, ongoing justification of government programs and regulation so zombie projects don't continue long after their point has ended, just because of inertia or powerful lobby groups.
- a public consensus that the welfare state should be a safety net, not a hammock, and that it is morally wrong to live off government without providing services in return. Get the unemployed or malingerers picking up litter if nothing else.
- a recognition that even though there's a problem, more government is rarely the solution, given unintended side effects. Government intervention often causes more problems than it solves
- tackling three areas of disastrous national failure: energy, infrastructure and housing. To its credit, the current government is doing at least something on the last, albeit in an incompetent and probably counter-productive way. To its debit it is making our energy, already some of the most expensive in the world much, much worse.
We won't get any of this of course, and if we do it'll be painful in the short term so we'll wish we hadn't, but if we really want to end our stagnation, this is how.
This will involve genuinely savage cuts in public expenditure such as we saw in Greece, Italy and, more recently Argentina. The very large, very comfortable state which looks after its own so well will simply not be sustainable any longer. This will also involve much higher levels of taxation to sustain genuinely essential public services. It is certainly not a tax cutters agenda Trump/Musk style, quite the opposite.
Of course, such cuts in government largesse and tax increases will also drive the economy into short term recession. But, hopefully, we can come out of that with a more sustainable economy not built on our kids and their kids money to fuel our consumption.
I think it’s something to do with HMRC still relying on paperwork, whereas many (most?) organisations are entirely digital. If you need instant access to documents, being “at home” is a problem
I’m sure WFH is fine for many companies, and a boon for some employees (tho I lament its effects on city life and socialisation for young people). HMRC is an example of how it can go wrong
I believe that what they do with paperwork is scan it into the computer as soon as it comes in. There are details of the form that point strongly to that.
So paperwork is not a convincing explanation - in fact it damages your theory.
Surely we can all agree to envy him?
I was at the Turkish barbers after work yesterday and for 62, I have aged better than most, but staring at oneself for 45 minutes with the wet hair looking significantly thinner, the Santa beard looking bushier than ever pre-cut, and the crows feet appearing as Golden Eagle talons I would go back to the 27 year old look all day long, even if that meant a return to 15% mortgage interest repayments, a Thatcher Government and a Vauxhall Cavalier with wind up windows.
(Anyway, thank your lucky stars I haven't started quoting Ayer's Verification Principle at you.)
"Ukrainian forces successfully attacked Russian positions using only ground and first person view (FPV) drones instead of infantry, an army spokesperson claimed on Dec. 20."
If Russia is defeated in Ukraine they will be chased out by a veritable horde of drones. Britain won WWI with technological innovation, and Ukraine can still win this war the same way.
And our youngest - where has the last 50 year's gone ?
Have a wonderful year
I just ask because of this last night: https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/5067207#Comment_5067207
Turns out the narrative is altogether more complex. In fact, his views (if, fortunately for you, not his actions) seem closely aligned with yours on the subject of Islam.
50 was OK, except for becoming eligible for all those "Over 50" insurance plans, etc, that bracket you in with the elderly.
Mind, being older than the parents of some of my work colleagues does make me feel old.
The level of abuse and false representation I got for pointing this out was pretty miserable, for what was ultimately quite a minor point. I was accused of denying the terrorist attack even happened.
I think PB is at it's best when people are allowed to cast a critical eye at things without being hounded off the site.
So when he says he said something last night I think we have the right to check if he really did make a public comment. Did he post that last night?
This doesn't just apply to him but everyone. If you post here, you shouldn't be able to then try and hide it.
Sorry I didn't mean to restart this debate. It just seemed like an obvious application of the principle.
https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/rev@FPP/USA/FRA/JPN/GBR/SWE/ESP/ITA/ZAF/IND
But if you adjust for the 7-8% of GDP that in the US is provided for by employers and individuals and in the UK by the state, that more than eliminates the difference.
“[Musk] is - to quote a very wise PBer (I forget who) a "visionary". THAT is his ability, plus an intense work ethic and some wildly good STEM skills
He can imagine and extrapolate. And he is correctly extrapolating that Europe is clearly headed for Far Right governments that won't just restrain immigration, they will literally deport millions. And eventually with force. And the Med and the Channel will be defended with guns which will actually shoot. It is inevitable.... if things proceed as they do - ie left or fake left governments pretending everything is OK and locking up anyone who disagrees
BUT I differ with Musk on the cure. Denmark shows there is a different and better route than the AfD. You have to admit the migration problem, be honest with the data (crime and rape ARE an issue) but then you can forcefully assimilate while offering generous welfare to those willing to stay and accept western liberal feminist norms, on those grounds. But at the same time you have to bulldoze ghettoes and kick out those who won't accept this. No burqas, no niqabs, no minarets, no call to prayer, Europe is not Islamic”
Government is discouraging paperwork- because for most situations that is what "cheaper and better" looks like. Efficiency, tax cuts, happy days.
In this particular unusual case, that doesn't work, but the state has taken the benefits of computerisation to save money- because that's what the public wants.
(See also self checkouts in supermarkets.)
WFH is a convenient excuse, I'm sure I would use it if pressured. But that doesn't mean it's true.
The leading opposition parties are the Green Left and Liberal Alliance so it’ll be interesting to see how this plays out next year.
At almost 63 I can just about see the light above the exit door and I haven't even, like my father before me, got a decade of 18 holes of golf each day ahead of me. Instead I'll be catching up on the thoughts of Chairman Leon and William Glenn between meetings.
The other thing is those houses who have Christmas lights don’t have to put them on till 9pm whereas in London they go on at 4pm or when @Leon comes on here and complains how cold and dark it is.
https://x.com/eyuplovely/status/1870296510363062554?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
Ben Goldacre or More or Less are good at demonstrating how useless journalists generally are at any in-depth understanding of anything.
Can be fun though. You can start giving advice again!
Need some more details.
Supposedly the attacker likes the AfD and Elon Musk...
On which, Musk attacking Scholz has gone down like a bucket of cold sick around here. Nobody likes Scholz much, but if Musk carries on like this the SPD could get a bit of a rally-round boost.
On the subject of security at Christmas markets: It's impossible - there are just way too many. You could stop people driving into the biggest and most famous, but then people would still be able to drive into the thousands of smaller (but also crowded) ones.
Also he SEEMS to have expressed support for both Israel AND Hamas. He may be a new form of multi-radical. Radicalised in umpteen different directions all at once. Fantastic new innovation
That was a perverse interpretation of someone just trying to verify some of the lurid rumours and videos going round the internet. If it wasn't for people actually digging into this stuff, we'd all still think it was a jihadist and 11 people were dead.
I remember discussing his cash sum and annuity choices well
Polling shows the Danish SD in the lead as of December 15, 2024
https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/denmark/
I thought the coalition wrong to make £5 in spending cuts for every £1 in tax rises but I wouldn’t support the opposite. The fact Reeves felt unable, despite a 20-point poll lead, to commit to raising income tax or VAT, illustrates the distortion of the debate. Instead, the thresholds are frozen and the NI rates are tinkered with which irritates a lot of people without really impacting on the problem.
As for motive that is to be determined and I have no opinion on that
The Times is excoriating about it today. Rightly so. Everything people said would happen is happening as a consequence.
Her legacy will be first female chancellor and that’s it.
We have gone from Business confidence at a 3 year high in August to a 4 year low. Jobs are being cut, prices are being increased, growth has been cut and interest rates will be higher for longer.
What a doofus.
https://www.thetimes.com/comment/the-times-view/article/the-times-view-on-xxx-96852drs8
Match the reduction in tax take due to reducing NI by substantially increasing NLW. Stop subsiding employers with in-work benefits. Work either pays or it doesn't. Get rid of these zombie companies that only exist by suckling on the tax payers teat.
Yes, the Social Democrats lead - albeit seven points down on the last election. They are considered a “red” party and the red parties lead the more liberal and conservative parties 51-43 so they could stay in Government and Frederiksen could remain Prime Minister but the other “red” parties will likely demand changes to the current policies as a price for supporting any new coalition.