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How the general election would have looked under different voting systems – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,610
edited December 2024 in General
imageHow the general election would have looked under different voting systems – politicalbetting.com

The Electoral Reform Society have modelled how July’s election would have looked under different voting systems, as we can see First Past The Post really flattered Labour.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,188
    First.

    Past the post??
  • TazTaz Posts: 20,094
    FPT

    Looks like further discontent in the public sector as the offer of an inflation busting pay award for the Nurses has been described as "offensive".

    Labour have already shown their strategy in negotiations with the public sector on pay and conditions is to throw in the towel at the first opportunity so expect a further capitulation which is then hailed as a success by the relevant minister.

    https://news.sky.com/story/unions-hint-at-public-sector-industrial-action-over-offensive-2-8-pay-rise-recommendation-13271028
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,633
    Basically FPTP is the only one that doesn’t ensure a coalition of chaos?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,550
    Taz said:

    FPT

    Looks like further discontent in the public sector as the offer of an inflation busting pay award for the Nurses has been described as "offensive".

    Labour have already shown their strategy in negotiations with the public sector on pay and conditions is to throw in the towel at the first opportunity so expect a further capitulation which is then hailed as a success by the relevant minister.

    https://news.sky.com/story/unions-hint-at-public-sector-industrial-action-over-offensive-2-8-pay-rise-recommendation-13271028

    It's all the nurses' fault - for not becoming train drivers.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 25,017
    RobD said:

    Basically FPTP is the only one that doesn’t ensure a coalition of chaos?

    Apart from alliteration (admittedly powerful), what evidence is there that coalition = chaos and majority = stability?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,475
    RobD said:

    Basically FPTP is the only one that doesn’t ensure a coalition of chaos?

    Instead FPTP delivers the competent and stable governments that we know so well.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,989
    Taz said:

    FPT

    Looks like further discontent in the public sector as the offer of an inflation busting pay award for the Nurses has been described as "offensive".

    Labour have already shown their strategy in negotiations with the public sector on pay and conditions is to throw in the towel at the first opportunity so expect a further capitulation which is then hailed as a success by the relevant minister.

    https://news.sky.com/story/unions-hint-at-public-sector-industrial-action-over-offensive-2-8-pay-rise-recommendation-13271028

    FPT but linked to this one: this does explain why Labour will get a decent vote at the next election.

    Despite SKS being hugely unpopular, and this government widely disliked, a very large number of public sector workers will still vote for them with pegs on their noses out of fear for what a Tory/Tory-Reform government will mean for their jobs and future paypackets.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,633
    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    Basically FPTP is the only one that doesn’t ensure a coalition of chaos?

    Instead FPTP delivers the competent and stable governments that we know so well.
    Strong ‘n stable.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,475
    noneoftheabove said:

    RobD said:

    Basically FPTP is the only one that doesn’t ensure a coalition of chaos?

    Apart from alliteration (admittedly powerful), what evidence is there that coalition = chaos and majority = stability?
    The most stable government of recent years was the Con/LD coalition. It's the majority governments that have been wracked with division and leadership revolts.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 15,467
    FPT…
    Sandpit said:

    MattW said:

    On a very serious note indeed, a segment from yesterday's Ukraine the Latest podcast, about Russia's organised programme of abduction and Russification of Ukrainian children - which is now up to at least 20,000 children. Putin has personal involvement.

    The programme is now shown to be a close parallel to the programme run by the Third Reich to abduct and Germanise children from Poland during WW2.

    The systematic nature of it moves the crime up from "Crime Against Humanity" to "Component of Genocide" under the Geneva Conventions, according to the projects submitting evidence to the ICC.

    One to keep talking about.

    https://youtu.be/vHx1l7mSxWw?t=1730

    This has been happening since the first days of the war, and the numbers are likely unreported by an order of magnitude.

    The only conflict of recent times from which there appear to be no orphans, and absolutely a serious war crime.
    Unfortunately, Trump doesn’t care about Ukraine or about war crimes.
  • TazTaz Posts: 20,094
    Casino_Royale said:

    Taz said:

    FPT

    Looks like further discontent in the public sector as the offer of an inflation busting pay award for the Nurses has been described as "offensive".

    Labour have already shown their strategy in negotiations with the public sector on pay and conditions is to throw in the towel at the first opportunity so expect a further capitulation which is then hailed as a success by the relevant minister.

    https://news.sky.com/story/unions-hint-at-public-sector-industrial-action-over-offensive-2-8-pay-rise-recommendation-13271028

    FPT but linked to this one: this does explain why Labour will get a decent vote at the next election.

    Despite SKS being hugely unpopular, and this government widely disliked, a very large number of public sector workers will still vote for them with pegs on their noses out of fear for what a Tory/Tory-Reform government will mean for their jobs and future paypackets.
    Yes, they will. The Public sector are part of the Labour client vote just as pensioners are part of the Tory client vote.

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,989
    I agree with that killer stat.

    In a majority of seats in this country (344 of 650) the top two parties in contest are not Labour/Conservative.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,966
    On Topic.

    Really interesting.

    FPTP really is a rubbish system plus if any other system were used voting patterns would likely favour the smaller Parties like the Greens even more as people vote for the Party thet actually want rather than for one of the 2 big parties to stop the other big Party
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 25,017
    Foxy said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    RobD said:

    Basically FPTP is the only one that doesn’t ensure a coalition of chaos?

    Apart from alliteration (admittedly powerful), what evidence is there that coalition = chaos and majority = stability?
    The most stable government of recent years was the Con/LD coalition. It's the majority governments that have been wracked with division and leadership revolts.
    There is that, but not sure it outweighs coalition and chaos sounding quite convincing when strung together. Its a tough one.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,989
    Taz said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Taz said:

    FPT

    Looks like further discontent in the public sector as the offer of an inflation busting pay award for the Nurses has been described as "offensive".

    Labour have already shown their strategy in negotiations with the public sector on pay and conditions is to throw in the towel at the first opportunity so expect a further capitulation which is then hailed as a success by the relevant minister.

    https://news.sky.com/story/unions-hint-at-public-sector-industrial-action-over-offensive-2-8-pay-rise-recommendation-13271028

    FPT but linked to this one: this does explain why Labour will get a decent vote at the next election.

    Despite SKS being hugely unpopular, and this government widely disliked, a very large number of public sector workers will still vote for them with pegs on their noses out of fear for what a Tory/Tory-Reform government will mean for their jobs and future paypackets.
    Yes, they will. The Public sector are part of the Labour client vote just as pensioners are part of the Tory client vote.

    Yep. And both are Statist drivers.

    That's the core point.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,187
    Casino_Royale said:

    Taz said:

    FPT

    Looks like further discontent in the public sector as the offer of an inflation busting pay award for the Nurses has been described as "offensive".

    Labour have already shown their strategy in negotiations with the public sector on pay and conditions is to throw in the towel at the first opportunity so expect a further capitulation which is then hailed as a success by the relevant minister.

    https://news.sky.com/story/unions-hint-at-public-sector-industrial-action-over-offensive-2-8-pay-rise-recommendation-13271028

    FPT but linked to this one: this does explain why Labour will get a decent vote at the next election.

    Despite SKS being hugely unpopular, and this government widely disliked, a very large number of public sector workers will still vote for them with pegs on their noses out of fear for what a Tory/Tory-Reform government will mean for their jobs and future paypackets.
    There are plenty of analyses showing how voting varies with age and education, but I haven't seen any that links it to public versus private sector employment. Can anyone point to such?

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,475
    Casino_Royale said:

    Taz said:

    FPT

    Looks like further discontent in the public sector as the offer of an inflation busting pay award for the Nurses has been described as "offensive".

    Labour have already shown their strategy in negotiations with the public sector on pay and conditions is to throw in the towel at the first opportunity so expect a further capitulation which is then hailed as a success by the relevant minister.

    https://news.sky.com/story/unions-hint-at-public-sector-industrial-action-over-offensive-2-8-pay-rise-recommendation-13271028

    FPT but linked to this one: this does explain why Labour will get a decent vote at the next election.

    Despite SKS being hugely unpopular, and this government widely disliked, a very large number of public sector workers will still vote for them with pegs on their noses out of fear for what a Tory/Tory-Reform government will mean for their jobs and future paypackets.
    And private sector workers will vote Lab/LD/Green/SNP too. Without the pensioner vote both Conservatives and Reform wouldn't even come close to being able to form a government, under any voting system.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,989
    RobD said:

    Basically FPTP is the only one that doesn’t ensure a coalition of chaos?

    We have a coalition of chaos, but it's just entirely internal to the Labour Party.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 25,017
    Foxy said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Taz said:

    FPT

    Looks like further discontent in the public sector as the offer of an inflation busting pay award for the Nurses has been described as "offensive".

    Labour have already shown their strategy in negotiations with the public sector on pay and conditions is to throw in the towel at the first opportunity so expect a further capitulation which is then hailed as a success by the relevant minister.

    https://news.sky.com/story/unions-hint-at-public-sector-industrial-action-over-offensive-2-8-pay-rise-recommendation-13271028

    FPT but linked to this one: this does explain why Labour will get a decent vote at the next election.

    Despite SKS being hugely unpopular, and this government widely disliked, a very large number of public sector workers will still vote for them with pegs on their noses out of fear for what a Tory/Tory-Reform government will mean for their jobs and future paypackets.
    And private sector workers will vote Lab/LD/Green/SNP too. Without the pensioner vote both Conservatives and Reform wouldn't even come close to being able to form a government, under any voting system.
    Sounds like

    Labour = party of hard working taxpayers
    Cons & Refukers = party of state benefits increasing faster than wages and inflation
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,475
    bigjohnowls said:

    On Topic.

    Really interesting.

    FPTP really is a rubbish system plus if any other system were used voting patterns would likely favour the smaller Parties like the Greens even more as people vote for the Party thet actually want rather than for one of the 2 big parties to stop the other big Party

    In theory the results in the table are adjusted for that, based on a poll asking who people would really vote for if we had PR.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,475
    Casino_Royale said:

    I agree with that killer stat.

    In a majority of seats in this country (344 of 650) the top two parties in contest are not Labour/Conservative.

    Yes, that is the most interesting figure. The old duo poly reigns in a minority of seats.

    At the next GE voters will know better to vote for too in order to keep Lab or Con out of government.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 25,017
    Foxy said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    On Topic.

    Really interesting.

    FPTP really is a rubbish system plus if any other system were used voting patterns would likely favour the smaller Parties like the Greens even more as people vote for the Party thet actually want rather than for one of the 2 big parties to stop the other big Party

    In theory the results in the table are adjusted for that, based on a poll asking who people would really vote for if we had PR.
    That is only a first order change though in an ongoing iterative process. As minor parties become more popular, they would get more attention, more money and more organised whilst the opposite would happen to the big two. It would change quite rapidly imo.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 25,017
    edited December 2024
    Morris_Dancer said:

    I'm amused by the notion private sector workers are going to be delighted to vote Labour given recent policies of flinging private sector taxpayers' cash at public sector workers and increasing taxes on the private sector while the public sector gets exempted.

    It will come down to do they improve public services, especially the NHS, and how is the economy doing in 2028/9. The journey to get there is far less important.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,188

    Talk
    @TalkTV

    Student Connie Shaw, who was suspended from Leeds University radio, says she "won't apologise" for expressing gender-critical views.

    "I don't know what I'd be apologising for. I'd find it very hard to start writing that letter."

    https://x.com/TalkTV/status/1866468359983820864
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 25,017
    rottenborough said:


    Talk
    @TalkTV

    Student Connie Shaw, who was suspended from Leeds University radio, says she "won't apologise" for expressing gender-critical views.

    "I don't know what I'd be apologising for. I'd find it very hard to start writing that letter."

    https://x.com/TalkTV/status/1866468359983820864

    Starting such a letter is a tricky one in modern life, is it Dear Sir, Dear Madam or Dear They?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,475
    Trump nominates Kimberly Guilfoyle, a Fox News host who was engaged to his son, as Ambassador to Greece.

    https://bsky.app/profile/annabower.bsky.social/post/3lcyfchnurs2i

    I think a large part of the reason that US diplomacy is so cackhanded is because of treating ambassadorships as patronage appointments for the unqualified.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 25,017
    Foxy said:

    Trump nominates Kimberly Guilfoyle, a Fox News host who was engaged to his son, as Ambassador to Greece.

    https://bsky.app/profile/annabower.bsky.social/post/3lcyfchnurs2i

    I think a large part of the reason that US diplomacy is so cackhanded is because of treating ambassadorships as patronage appointments for the unqualified.

    Does she realise its a country not a musical?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,966
    Morris_Dancer said:

    I'm amused by the notion private sector workers are going to be delighted to vote Labour given recent policies of flinging private sector taxpayers' cash at public sector workers and increasing taxes on the private sector while the public sector gets exempted.

    Simple solution take a job in the public sector if you think it's well paid and easy money. I recommend a nursing assistant role on grade 2 (over 7000 vacancies )
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,776
    edited December 2024
    MarqueeMark said:

    Taz said:

    FPT

    Looks like further discontent in the public sector as the offer of an inflation busting pay award for the Nurses has been described as "offensive".

    Labour have already shown their strategy in negotiations with the public sector on pay and conditions is to throw in the towel at the first opportunity so expect a further capitulation which is then hailed as a success by the relevant minister.

    https://news.sky.com/story/unions-hint-at-public-sector-industrial-action-over-offensive-2-8-pay-rise-recommendation-13271028

    It's all the nurses' fault - for not becoming train drivers.
    They should have retrained in "Cyber" shouldn't they? I hear there are jobs going on the Silver Carrier.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,475
    Morris_Dancer said:

    I'm amused by the notion private sector workers are going to be delighted to vote Labour given recent policies of flinging private sector taxpayers' cash at public sector workers and increasing taxes on the private sector while the public sector gets exempted.

    Only 17.3% of the British workforce are in the public sector, and obviously they do not all vote Labour*. The lead of Labour in polling in the working age population must mean that a plurality of those in the private sector workforce also support Labour.

    *plenty in my workplace voted Conservative/Reform, but I suspect that even more true in the armed forces, police, prisons etc.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,053
    Thanks for the header @TheScreamingEagles
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 56,170
    noneoftheabove said:

    Foxy said:

    Trump nominates Kimberly Guilfoyle, a Fox News host who was engaged to his son, as Ambassador to Greece.

    https://bsky.app/profile/annabower.bsky.social/post/3lcyfchnurs2i

    I think a large part of the reason that US diplomacy is so cackhanded is because of treating ambassadorships as patronage appointments for the unqualified.

    Does she realise its a country not a musical?
    Greece isn’t a musical? When did this change?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,989
    bigjohnowls said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Taz said:

    FPT

    Looks like further discontent in the public sector as the offer of an inflation busting pay award for the Nurses has been described as "offensive".

    Labour have already shown their strategy in negotiations with the public sector on pay and conditions is to throw in the towel at the first opportunity so expect a further capitulation which is then hailed as a success by the relevant minister.

    https://news.sky.com/story/unions-hint-at-public-sector-industrial-action-over-offensive-2-8-pay-rise-recommendation-13271028

    FPT but linked to this one: this does explain why Labour will get a decent vote at the next election.

    Despite SKS being hugely unpopular, and this government widely disliked, a very large number of public sector workers will still vote for them with pegs on their noses out of fear for what a Tory/Tory-Reform government will mean for their jobs and future paypackets.
    Why don't people whinging about other people's pay retrain and take a job as a nurse. After all there are thousands of vacancies (surprising considering some PBers think it's a cushy number)
    That argument could be used to defend any level of pay or payrise.

    You don't get a free pass just because your job is seen to be virtuous.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,776
    Foxy said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    I agree with that killer stat.

    In a majority of seats in this country (344 of 650) the top two parties in contest are not Labour/Conservative.

    Yes, that is the most interesting figure. The old duo poly reigns in a minority of seats.

    At the next GE voters will know better to vote for too in order to keep Lab or Con out of government.
    I agree that's the most interesting thing. The other interesting thing is that under no permutation could the Tories/Reform have ended up in a governing coalition. Reform would be toxic to the Greens and LDs, and they would presumably hold their noses and we'd have a proper European-style punch up about who gets which jobs - with the Greens in pole position on the list PR permutation!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,798
    bigjohnowls said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    I'm amused by the notion private sector workers are going to be delighted to vote Labour given recent policies of flinging private sector taxpayers' cash at public sector workers and increasing taxes on the private sector while the public sector gets exempted.

    Simple solution take a job in the public sector if you think it's well paid and easy money. I recommend a nursing assistant role on grade 2 (over 7000 vacancies )
    It is fun how every 'public sector worker' becomes a nurse. And be glad of the private sector. That's the sole source of wages for the public sector.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 32,136
    Foxy said:

    Trump nominates Kimberly Guilfoyle, a Fox News host who was engaged to his son, as Ambassador to Greece.

    https://bsky.app/profile/annabower.bsky.social/post/3lcyfchnurs2i

    I think a large part of the reason that US diplomacy is so cackhanded is because of treating ambassadorships as patronage appointments for the unqualified.

    The US ambassador is for show, and an assistant does the actual diplomacy.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 25,017
    Malmesbury said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    Foxy said:

    Trump nominates Kimberly Guilfoyle, a Fox News host who was engaged to his son, as Ambassador to Greece.

    https://bsky.app/profile/annabower.bsky.social/post/3lcyfchnurs2i

    I think a large part of the reason that US diplomacy is so cackhanded is because of treating ambassadorships as patronage appointments for the unqualified.

    Does she realise its a country not a musical?
    Greece isn’t a musical? When did this change?
    Its bonkers isn't it, Greece have lost their marbles.
  • Shecorns88Shecorns88 Posts: 374
    noneoftheabove said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    I'm amused by the notion private sector workers are going to be delighted to vote Labour given recent policies of flinging private sector taxpayers' cash at public sector workers and increasing taxes on the private sector while the public sector gets exempted.

    It will come down to do they improve public services, especially the NHS, and how is the economy doing in 2028/9. The journey to get there is far less important.
    Adsolutely spot on

    MSM paymasters will get bored of countless irrelevant opinion polls and get alarmed by the trends by then that show that public services ARE improving; Net Migration IS falling, Inflation is under control in a 1.5-2.5% range, disposable income is increasing as Truss related 5-6% 3-5 year fixed / trackers taken out in 2022 - 2023 start to filter down to 3% rates....(that impact alone will be massive)....
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 32,136
    Morris_Dancer said:

    While interesting, differing voting systems do alter voter behaviour.

    Yes, this analysis after every election is based on changing the counting system, not the voting system, and without the parties or voters having noticed.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 25,017
    Morris_Dancer said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    I'm amused by the notion private sector workers are going to be delighted to vote Labour given recent policies of flinging private sector taxpayers' cash at public sector workers and increasing taxes on the private sector while the public sector gets exempted.

    Simple solution take a job in the public sector if you think it's well paid and easy money. I recommend a nursing assistant role on grade 2 (over 7000 vacancies )
    It is fun how every 'public sector worker' becomes a nurse. And be glad of the private sector. That's the sole source of wages for the public sector.
    The point remains. If public sector jobs are so overpaid and cushy, why do almost none of the critics of public sector pay choose to work there?

    Peoples personal preferences on this are completely inconsistent with their views.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,188
    noneoftheabove said:

    rottenborough said:


    Talk
    @TalkTV

    Student Connie Shaw, who was suspended from Leeds University radio, says she "won't apologise" for expressing gender-critical views.

    "I don't know what I'd be apologising for. I'd find it very hard to start writing that letter."

    https://x.com/TalkTV/status/1866468359983820864

    Starting such a letter is a tricky one in modern life, is it Dear Sir, Dear Madam or Dear They?
    Dear mob?
  • CookieCookie Posts: 15,747
    Foxy said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    On Topic.

    Really interesting.

    FPTP really is a rubbish system plus if any other system were used voting patterns would likely favour the smaller Parties like the Greens even more as people vote for the Party thet actually want rather than for one of the 2 big parties to stop the other big Party

    In theory the results in the table are adjusted for that, based on a poll asking who people would really vote for if we had PR.
    This exercise is really hard to do, and all sorts of caveats apply. There was an excellent study done after the 1992 GE ('replaying the 1992 election', or something like that) which for me remains the gold standard in such exercises. Voters' approach to voting would change, non-voters would become voters (and vice versa), parties would campaign differently, other parties miggt emerge.
    This isn't to criticise the ERS, who acknowledge this. But care must be taken in drawing conclusions.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,475
    Cookie said:

    Foxy said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    On Topic.

    Really interesting.

    FPTP really is a rubbish system plus if any other system were used voting patterns would likely favour the smaller Parties like the Greens even more as people vote for the Party thet actually want rather than for one of the 2 big parties to stop the other big Party

    In theory the results in the table are adjusted for that, based on a poll asking who people would really vote for if we had PR.
    This exercise is really hard to do, and all sorts of caveats apply. There was an excellent study done after the 1992 GE ('replaying the 1992 election', or something like that) which for me remains the gold standard in such exercises. Voters' approach to voting would change, non-voters would become voters (and vice versa), parties would campaign differently, other parties miggt emerge.
    This isn't to criticise the ERS, who acknowledge this. But care must be taken in drawing conclusions.
    I think we saw in the Euro elections how people would vote differently, and we also see the same in the Welsh and Scottish elections.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,966
    Casino_Royale said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Taz said:

    FPT

    Looks like further discontent in the public sector as the offer of an inflation busting pay award for the Nurses has been described as "offensive".

    Labour have already shown their strategy in negotiations with the public sector on pay and conditions is to throw in the towel at the first opportunity so expect a further capitulation which is then hailed as a success by the relevant minister.

    https://news.sky.com/story/unions-hint-at-public-sector-industrial-action-over-offensive-2-8-pay-rise-recommendation-13271028

    FPT but linked to this one: this does explain why Labour will get a decent vote at the next election.

    Despite SKS being hugely unpopular, and this government widely disliked, a very large number of public sector workers will still vote for them with pegs on their noses out of fear for what a Tory/Tory-Reform government will mean for their jobs and future paypackets.
    Why don't people whinging about other people's pay retrain and take a job as a nurse. After all there are thousands of vacancies (surprising considering some PBers think it's a cushy number)
    That argument could be used to defend any level of pay or payrise.

    You don't get a free pass just because your job is seen to be virtuous.
    Apply for a job there then.

    What's stopping you?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,427
    edited December 2024
    Morris_Dancer said:

    I'm amused by the notion private sector workers are going to be delighted to vote Labour given recent policies of flinging private sector taxpayers' cash at public sector workers and increasing taxes on the private sector while the public sector gets exempted.

    It all depends on whether the private sector worker believes they are getting value for money for their taxes. A functioning NHS, education, utilities, transport and visible service provision, personal safety, stopping the boats and they will be fine with voting Labour. Whether any are achieved or even achievable is another matter.

    Tories/Reform know the cost of everything and the value of nothing.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,550
    Foxy said:

    Trump nominates Kimberly Guilfoyle, a Fox News host who was engaged to his son, as Ambassador to Greece.

    https://bsky.app/profile/annabower.bsky.social/post/3lcyfchnurs2i

    I think a large part of the reason that US diplomacy is so cackhanded is because of treating ambassadorships as patronage appointments for the unqualified.

    Nothing to do with getting her a long way from Don Jr. so he can be with his new squeeze, Bettina...
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,776
    Malmesbury said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    Foxy said:

    Trump nominates Kimberly Guilfoyle, a Fox News host who was engaged to his son, as Ambassador to Greece.

    https://bsky.app/profile/annabower.bsky.social/post/3lcyfchnurs2i

    I think a large part of the reason that US diplomacy is so cackhanded is because of treating ambassadorships as patronage appointments for the unqualified.

    Does she realise its a country not a musical?
    Greece isn’t a musical? When did this change?
    It's always been "the word".
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,966
    Morris_Dancer said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    I'm amused by the notion private sector workers are going to be delighted to vote Labour given recent policies of flinging private sector taxpayers' cash at public sector workers and increasing taxes on the private sector while the public sector gets exempted.

    Simple solution take a job in the public sector if you think it's well paid and easy money. I recommend a nursing assistant role on grade 2 (over 7000 vacancies )
    It is fun how every 'public sector worker' becomes a nurse. And be glad of the private sector. That's the sole source of wages for the public sector.
    Yes wealth creators are famously amazingly generous with their "hard earned" lot.

    I remember during Covid how the people lined the streets to applaud them
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 32,136
    Mexicanpete said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    I'm amused by the notion private sector workers are going to be delighted to vote Labour given recent policies of flinging private sector taxpayers' cash at public sector workers and increasing taxes on the private sector while the public sector gets exempted.

    It all depends on whether the private sector worker believes they are getting value for money for their taxes. A functioning NHS, education, utilities, transport and visible service provision, personal safety, stopping the boats and they will be fine with voting Labour. Whether any are achieved or even achievable is another matter.

    Tories/Reform know the cost of everything and the value of nothing.
    It will be interesting to see how the main parties tackle Reform and Farage, whose populism might be undermined by his more Thatcherite than Thatcher small state economics that would abolish the NHS. Would Kemi in particular challenge Reform on this?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,427
    MarqueeMark said:

    Foxy said:

    Trump nominates Kimberly Guilfoyle, a Fox News host who was engaged to his son, as Ambassador to Greece.

    https://bsky.app/profile/annabower.bsky.social/post/3lcyfchnurs2i

    I think a large part of the reason that US diplomacy is so cackhanded is because of treating ambassadorships as patronage appointments for the unqualified.

    Nothing to do with getting her a long way from Don Jr. so he can be with his new squeeze, Bettina...
    Doesn't Kim swing both ways? Democrat (Newsome) and Republican (Don Jnr).
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,757
    Public sector workers, particularly those in healthcare often have the problem that there is a singe employer with monopsony power. So their wages can be artificially low due to lack of competition.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,427
    bigjohnowls said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    I'm amused by the notion private sector workers are going to be delighted to vote Labour given recent policies of flinging private sector taxpayers' cash at public sector workers and increasing taxes on the private sector while the public sector gets exempted.

    Simple solution take a job in the public sector if you think it's well paid and easy money. I recommend a nursing assistant role on grade 2 (over 7000 vacancies )
    It is fun how every 'public sector worker' becomes a nurse. And be glad of the private sector. That's the sole source of wages for the public sector.
    Yes wealth creators are famously amazingly generous with their "hard earned" lot.

    I remember during Covid how the people lined the streets to applaud them
    Captain Tom and Hannah?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,966
    Foxy said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    I'm amused by the notion private sector workers are going to be delighted to vote Labour given recent policies of flinging private sector taxpayers' cash at public sector workers and increasing taxes on the private sector while the public sector gets exempted.

    Simple solution take a job in the public sector if you think it's well paid and easy money. I recommend a nursing assistant role on grade 2 (over 7000 vacancies )
    It is fun how every 'public sector worker' becomes a nurse. And be glad of the private sector. That's the sole source of wages for the public sector.
    That's just silly.

    I do not only contribute to the economy when working at Spire, I do exactly the same work on the NHS. How is one a boost to the economy and the other a drain?
    Private Sector think!

    "You should be grateful that we pay your wages" types are the lowest of the low.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 11,400
    edited December 2024
    Morris_Dancer said:

    I'm amused by the notion private sector workers are going to be delighted to vote Labour given recent policies of flinging private sector taxpayers' cash at public sector workers and increasing taxes on the private sector while the public sector gets exempted.

    Remember that Labour got almost double the votes from working people than the Conservatives, and those on the highest salaries, and therefore paying the most tax, were the most likely to vote Labour

    People simply do not mind paying taxes in the way you think they do, particularly when those taxes go on non-exclusive public services like the NHS.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,550
    rottenborough said:


    Talk
    @TalkTV

    Student Connie Shaw, who was suspended from Leeds University radio, says she "won't apologise" for expressing gender-critical views.

    "I don't know what I'd be apologising for. I'd find it very hard to start writing that letter."

    https://x.com/TalkTV/status/1866468359983820864

    Shouldn't that clip come with a warning for those easily triggered by Julia Hartley-Brewer?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,798
    Foxy said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    I'm amused by the notion private sector workers are going to be delighted to vote Labour given recent policies of flinging private sector taxpayers' cash at public sector workers and increasing taxes on the private sector while the public sector gets exempted.

    Simple solution take a job in the public sector if you think it's well paid and easy money. I recommend a nursing assistant role on grade 2 (over 7000 vacancies )
    It is fun how every 'public sector worker' becomes a nurse. And be glad of the private sector. That's the sole source of wages for the public sector.
    That's just silly.

    I do not only contribute to the economy when working at Spire, I do exactly the same work on the NHS. How is one a boost to the economy and the other a drain?
    In purely financial terms, every public sector worker is a net cost. Your taxes in the public sector reduce the cost they don't make up for it.

    Of course, the essential services (health, education, bin collection etc) are needed. But without the private sector they wouldn't be possible. If that were not the case, the state could simply employ everyone and watch miraculous tax revenues and endless growth.

    Hammer the private sector to fund the desperately virtuous public sector and economic growth gets hit, which in the long term is not just bad for those in the private sector, but the zealous left so keen on spending tax revenue, which also drops.

    Mr. Owls, the cultish applause for the NHS was indeed a disturbing trend,
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 25,017
    rkrkrk said:

    Public sector workers, particularly those in healthcare often have the problem that there is a singe employer with monopsony power. So their wages can be artificially low due to lack of competition.

    Quick google says experienced nurse earns about £45k here and £65k in the US so there is probably something in that. A nurse with a masters degree in the US earns around £100k. Imagine the headlines in the Telegraph if the govt paid that.....
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,427
    edited December 2024
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    I'm amused by the notion private sector workers are going to be delighted to vote Labour given recent policies of flinging private sector taxpayers' cash at public sector workers and increasing taxes on the private sector while the public sector gets exempted.

    It all depends on whether the private sector worker believes they are getting value for money for their taxes. A functioning NHS, education, utilities, transport and visible service provision, personal safety, stopping the boats and they will be fine with voting Labour. Whether any are achieved or even achievable is another matter.

    Tories/Reform know the cost of everything and the value of nothing.
    It will be interesting to see how the main parties tackle Reform and Farage, whose populism might be undermined by his more Thatcherite than Thatcher small state economics that would abolish the NHS. Would Kemi in particular challenge Reform on this?
    If as Hitler claimed propaganda is the main driver for power, Nigel won't need to explain away his policies. He doesn't like foreigners (except his partners) and he is on the BBC/ITV/ Sky/ GeeBeebies at every opportunity. Seems like a winning combination to me.

    I think Kemi rolls with Nigel. We do have a history in voting against our own best interests. See Brexit.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,906
    mwadams said:

    Malmesbury said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    Foxy said:

    Trump nominates Kimberly Guilfoyle, a Fox News host who was engaged to his son, as Ambassador to Greece.

    https://bsky.app/profile/annabower.bsky.social/post/3lcyfchnurs2i

    I think a large part of the reason that US diplomacy is so cackhanded is because of treating ambassadorships as patronage appointments for the unqualified.

    Does she realise its a country not a musical?
    Greece isn’t a musical? When did this change?
    It's always been "the word".
    Fake news.
    I'm reliably informed it is the time; is the place; is the motion.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 25,017
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    geoffw said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Taz said:

    FPT

    Looks like further discontent in the public sector as the offer of an inflation busting pay award for the Nurses has been described as "offensive".

    Labour have already shown their strategy in negotiations with the public sector on pay and conditions is to throw in the towel at the first opportunity so expect a further capitulation which is then hailed as a success by the relevant minister.

    https://news.sky.com/story/unions-hint-at-public-sector-industrial-action-over-offensive-2-8-pay-rise-recommendation-13271028

    FPT but linked to this one: this does explain why Labour will get a decent vote at the next election.

    Despite SKS being hugely unpopular, and this government widely disliked, a very large number of public sector workers will still vote for them with pegs on their noses out of fear for what a Tory/Tory-Reform government will mean for their jobs and future paypackets.
    There are plenty of analyses showing how voting varies with age and education, but I haven't seen any that links it to public versus private sector employment. Can anyone point to such?

    Spare a thought for people like Foxy, who must vote for one party if he nips out in a break from his NHS rounds, and its opposition if conducting a private clinic that day.
    Sounds like a LibDem.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,906
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Foxy said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    I'm amused by the notion private sector workers are going to be delighted to vote Labour given recent policies of flinging private sector taxpayers' cash at public sector workers and increasing taxes on the private sector while the public sector gets exempted.

    Simple solution take a job in the public sector if you think it's well paid and easy money. I recommend a nursing assistant role on grade 2 (over 7000 vacancies )
    It is fun how every 'public sector worker' becomes a nurse. And be glad of the private sector. That's the sole source of wages for the public sector.
    That's just silly.

    I do not only contribute to the economy when working at Spire, I do exactly the same work on the NHS. How is one a boost to the economy and the other a drain?
    In purely financial terms, every public sector worker is a net cost. Your taxes in the public sector reduce the cost they don't make up for it.

    Of course, the essential services (health, education, bin collection etc) are needed. But without the private sector they wouldn't be possible. If that were not the case, the state could simply employ everyone and watch miraculous tax revenues and endless growth...
    The state could employ everyone.
    It wouldn't be miraculous, and the growth would be anaemic, but it's demonstrably possible.

    Your economic analysis is somewhat wanting.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,966
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Foxy said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    I'm amused by the notion private sector workers are going to be delighted to vote Labour given recent policies of flinging private sector taxpayers' cash at public sector workers and increasing taxes on the private sector while the public sector gets exempted.

    Simple solution take a job in the public sector if you think it's well paid and easy money. I recommend a nursing assistant role on grade 2 (over 7000 vacancies )
    It is fun how every 'public sector worker' becomes a nurse. And be glad of the private sector. That's the sole source of wages for the public sector.
    That's just silly.

    I do not only contribute to the economy when working at Spire, I do exactly the same work on the NHS. How is one a boost to the economy and the other a drain?
    In purely financial terms, every public sector worker is a net cost. Your taxes in the public sector reduce the cost they don't make up for it.

    Of course, the essential services (health, education, bin collection etc) are needed. But without the private sector they wouldn't be possible. If that were not the case, the state could simply employ everyone and watch miraculous tax revenues and endless growth.

    Hammer the private sector to fund the desperately virtuous public sector and economic growth gets hit, which in the long term is not just bad for those in the private sector, but the zealous left so keen on spending tax revenue, which also drops.

    Mr. Owls, the cultish applause for the NHS was indeed a disturbing trend,
    Really enlightening to hear your thoughts on the disturbing trend of people being grateful for the NHS saving lives.

    I think even ungrateful types like yourself still get treated for "free"
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,906
    edited December 2024
    Mexicanpete said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Foxy said:

    Trump nominates Kimberly Guilfoyle, a Fox News host who was engaged to his son, as Ambassador to Greece.

    https://bsky.app/profile/annabower.bsky.social/post/3lcyfchnurs2i

    I think a large part of the reason that US diplomacy is so cackhanded is because of treating ambassadorships as patronage appointments for the unqualified.

    Nothing to do with getting her a long way from Don Jr. so he can be with his new squeeze, Bettina...
    Doesn't Kim swing both ways? Democrat (Newsome) and Republican (Don Jnr).
    I think in her case it's more of a steep downhill slope than a progression or a swing.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,906
    Mexicanpete said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    I'm amused by the notion private sector workers are going to be delighted to vote Labour given recent policies of flinging private sector taxpayers' cash at public sector workers and increasing taxes on the private sector while the public sector gets exempted.

    It all depends on whether the private sector worker believes they are getting value for money for their taxes. A functioning NHS, education, utilities, transport and visible service provision, personal safety, stopping the boats and they will be fine with voting Labour. Whether any are achieved or even achievable is another matter.

    Tories/Reform know the cost of everything and the value of nothing.
    It will be interesting to see how the main parties tackle Reform and Farage, whose populism might be undermined by his more Thatcherite than Thatcher small state economics that would abolish the NHS. Would Kemi in particular challenge Reform on this?
    If as Hitler claimed propaganda is the main driver for power, Nigel won't need to explain away his policies. He doesn't like foreigners (except his partners) and he is on the BBC/ITV/ Sky/ GeeBeebies at every opportunity. Seems like a winning combination to me.

    I think Kemi rolls with Nigel. We do have a history in voting against our own best interests. See Brexit.
    As a small favour, can I request that he is called Farage ?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,719
    Casino_Royale said:

    RobD said:

    Basically FPTP is the only one that doesn’t ensure a coalition of chaos?

    We have a coalition of chaos, but it's just entirely internal to the Labour Party.
    Whatever one might think of the policies that it implemented, the last time Britain had a stable government was under the Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition.

    Three have been seven different Chancellors of the Exchequer since George Osborne's six-year stint came to an end just over eight years ago.

    It's not PR, or coalitions, that creates unstable governments. Plenty of countries have stable coalition governments - including Britain. It's the politics, and the politicians, that create instability.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,966
    Nigelb said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Foxy said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    I'm amused by the notion private sector workers are going to be delighted to vote Labour given recent policies of flinging private sector taxpayers' cash at public sector workers and increasing taxes on the private sector while the public sector gets exempted.

    Simple solution take a job in the public sector if you think it's well paid and easy money. I recommend a nursing assistant role on grade 2 (over 7000 vacancies )
    It is fun how every 'public sector worker' becomes a nurse. And be glad of the private sector. That's the sole source of wages for the public sector.
    That's just silly.

    I do not only contribute to the economy when working at Spire, I do exactly the same work on the NHS. How is one a boost to the economy and the other a drain?
    In purely financial terms, every public sector worker is a net cost. Your taxes in the public sector reduce the cost they don't make up for it.

    Of course, the essential services (health, education, bin collection etc) are needed. But without the private sector they wouldn't be possible. If that were not the case, the state could simply employ everyone and watch miraculous tax revenues and endless growth...


    Your economic analysis is somewhat wanting.
    But commonplace amongst many "wealth creators" and Rachel ( austerity) Reeves.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 11,400
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Foxy said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    I'm amused by the notion private sector workers are going to be delighted to vote Labour given recent policies of flinging private sector taxpayers' cash at public sector workers and increasing taxes on the private sector while the public sector gets exempted.

    Simple solution take a job in the public sector if you think it's well paid and easy money. I recommend a nursing assistant role on grade 2 (over 7000 vacancies )
    It is fun how every 'public sector worker' becomes a nurse. And be glad of the private sector. That's the sole source of wages for the public sector.
    That's just silly.

    I do not only contribute to the economy when working at Spire, I do exactly the same work on the NHS. How is one a boost to the economy and the other a drain?
    In purely financial terms, every public sector worker is a net cost. Your taxes in the public sector reduce the cost they don't make up for it.

    Of course, the essential services (health, education, bin collection etc) are needed. But without the private sector they wouldn't be possible. If that were not the case, the state could simply employ everyone and watch miraculous tax revenues and endless growth.

    Hammer the private sector to fund the desperately virtuous public sector and economic growth gets hit, which in the long term is not just bad for those in the private sector, but the zealous left so keen on spending tax revenue, which also drops.

    Mr. Owls, the cultish applause for the NHS was indeed a disturbing trend,
    But the private sector has not provided much economic growth either in the UK - productivity growth has been dreadful there too.

    There is no clear pattern across other countries about what size of public sector is optimal - for example, France (59%) has a much larger state but also builds nuclear power stations and TGV, and the Australians generally have much better outcomes too (41%).
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,719
    In other instability news, we went sale agreed on a house on election day, July 4th, and the sellers pulled out late yesterday. I think we're going to end up €3,500 down. Fingers crossed Trump doesn't crash the global economy before we can find another house to buy.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,776
    Cookie said:

    Foxy said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    On Topic.

    Really interesting.

    FPTP really is a rubbish system plus if any other system were used voting patterns would likely favour the smaller Parties like the Greens even more as people vote for the Party thet actually want rather than for one of the 2 big parties to stop the other big Party

    In theory the results in the table are adjusted for that, based on a poll asking who people would really vote for if we had PR.
    This exercise is really hard to do, and all sorts of caveats apply. There was an excellent study done after the 1992 GE ('replaying the 1992 election', or something like that) which for me remains the gold standard in such exercises. Voters' approach to voting would change, non-voters would become voters (and vice versa), parties would campaign differently, other parties miggt emerge.
    This isn't to criticise the ERS, who acknowledge this. But care must be taken in drawing conclusions.
    It's interesting that the caveats in 1992 and 2024 are very different. In '92, 94% of the vote was split between 3 parties on a 78% turnout. In 2024, only 70% of the vote was split between 3 parties, on a 58% turnout. While the increased fragmentation is already indicative of trends, that 58% is a real headache for anyone projecting to a new system.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,906
    Unless it is still the case in a year's time, I'm not sure how 'significant' this is.

    Small, but significant detail from this report from Clarissa Ward on the ground in Damascus today.

    Ward previously wore hijab in reports from rebel Syria.

    Today she speaks to a Syrian woman, both without hijab, with other women without hijab visible among rebels in the back.
    https://x.com/KareemRifai/status/1866501302634619079

    I am very guardedly optimistic, but the range of possible outcomes, from amazing to absolutely disastrous, is huge.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 28,885
    FPT:
    On a very serious note indeed, a segment from yesterday's Ukraine the Latest podcast, about Russia's organised programme of abduction and Russification of Ukrainian children - which is now up to at least 20,000 children. Putin has personal involvement.

    The programme is now shown to be a close parallel to the programme run by the Third Reich to abduct and Germanise children from Poland during WW2.

    The systematic nature of it moves the crime up from "Crime Against Humanity" to "Component of Genocide" under the Geneva Conventions, according to the projects submitting evidence to the ICC.

    One to keep talking about.

    https://youtu.be/vHx1l7mSxWw?t=1730
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 32,136
    Police arrest 93 gang members behind £4m thefts in shoplifting crackdown
    A new police unit has for the first time mapped the gangs targeting shops around the country to see where they're operating.
    https://news.sky.com/story/flatplan-13270885

    Geography is not just for running through fields of wheat. Who knew?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,126
    edited December 2024
    If they aren’t dodging taxes then farmers are destroying our heritage. Ghastly people.

    Farmer in court over ploughing D-Day training grounds

    Natural England seeks permanent injunction to protect Mesolithic settlement and Second World War artefacts

    A farmer is in a court row with the countryside protection watchdog after ploughing fields home to “irreplaceable” D-Day relics.

    Andrew Cooper, a tenant of National Trust-owned Croyde Hoe Farm in North Devon, is facing legal action over claims he is ploughing protected fields with artefacts from the Second World War, and the Neolithic and Mesolithic eras.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/12/09/devon-farmer-court-row-ploughing-fields-d-day-relics/
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 32,136
    Damp and mouldy housing could see personnel leave military
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn85r1l2vypo
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 56,170
    Nigelb said:

    Unless it is still the case in a year's time, I'm not sure how 'significant' this is.

    Small, but significant detail from this report from Clarissa Ward on the ground in Damascus today.

    Ward previously wore hijab in reports from rebel Syria.

    Today she speaks to a Syrian woman, both without hijab, with other women without hijab visible among rebels in the back.
    https://x.com/KareemRifai/status/1866501302634619079

    I am very guardedly optimistic, but the range of possible outcomes, from amazing to absolutely disastrous, is huge.

    I've noticed that the female TV reporters in Syria are almost making a thing of not wearing a headscarf. Well, was actually pointed out to me by a Syrian guy in the office.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,742
    edited December 2024
    Cookie said:

    Foxy said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    On Topic.

    Really interesting.

    FPTP really is a rubbish system plus if any other system were used voting patterns would likely favour the smaller Parties like the Greens even more as people vote for the Party thet actually want rather than for one of the 2 big parties to stop the other big Party

    In theory the results in the table are adjusted for that, based on a poll asking who people would really vote for if we had PR.
    This exercise is really hard to do, and all sorts of caveats apply. There was an excellent study done after the 1992 GE ('replaying the 1992 election', or something like that) which for me remains the gold standard in such exercises. Voters' approach to voting would change, non-voters would become voters (and vice versa), parties would campaign differently, other parties miggt emerge.
    This isn't to criticise the ERS, who acknowledge this. But care must be taken in drawing conclusions.
    Yes, here in rural Oxfordshire there are loads of Labour voters (indeed members) who vote LibDem, as the perceived alternative to the Tories. I imagine the exact reverse is true in many urban constituencies. The full report that Cookie refers to is here:
    https://www.researchgate.net/publication/382239053_Replaying_the_1992_Election_How_Britain_would_have_voted_under_alternative_electoral_systems
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 56,170
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Police arrest 93 gang members behind £4m thefts in shoplifting crackdown
    A new police unit has for the first time mapped the gangs targeting shops around the country to see where they're operating.
    https://news.sky.com/story/flatplan-13270885

    Geography is not just for running through fields of wheat. Who knew?

    I thought it was entirely about Oxbow lakes?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,811
    edited December 2024
    MarqueeMark said:

    Foxy said:

    Trump nominates Kimberly Guilfoyle, a Fox News host who was engaged to his son, as Ambassador to Greece.

    https://bsky.app/profile/annabower.bsky.social/post/3lcyfchnurs2i

    I think a large part of the reason that US diplomacy is so cackhanded is because of treating ambassadorships as patronage appointments for the unqualified.

    Nothing to do with getting her a long way from Don Jr. so he can be with his new squeeze, Bettina...
    All the Trump women have got interchangeable mouths and teeth
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,798
    bigjohnowls said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Foxy said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    I'm amused by the notion private sector workers are going to be delighted to vote Labour given recent policies of flinging private sector taxpayers' cash at public sector workers and increasing taxes on the private sector while the public sector gets exempted.

    Simple solution take a job in the public sector if you think it's well paid and easy money. I recommend a nursing assistant role on grade 2 (over 7000 vacancies )
    It is fun how every 'public sector worker' becomes a nurse. And be glad of the private sector. That's the sole source of wages for the public sector.
    That's just silly.

    I do not only contribute to the economy when working at Spire, I do exactly the same work on the NHS. How is one a boost to the economy and the other a drain?
    In purely financial terms, every public sector worker is a net cost. Your taxes in the public sector reduce the cost they don't make up for it.

    Of course, the essential services (health, education, bin collection etc) are needed. But without the private sector they wouldn't be possible. If that were not the case, the state could simply employ everyone and watch miraculous tax revenues and endless growth.

    Hammer the private sector to fund the desperately virtuous public sector and economic growth gets hit, which in the long term is not just bad for those in the private sector, but the zealous left so keen on spending tax revenue, which also drops.

    Mr. Owls, the cultish applause for the NHS was indeed a disturbing trend,
    Really enlightening to hear your thoughts on the disturbing trend of people being grateful for the NHS saving lives.

    I think even ungrateful types like yourself still get treated for "free"
    Mr. Owls, cultish devotion is always disturbing.

    I didn't applaud for the local supermarket during the pandemic, even though I was very glad indeed it was there. As for ingratitude, I suppose you'll just have to use my avatar for a quick Two Minutes Hate.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,925
    Malmesbury said:

    Nigelb said:

    Unless it is still the case in a year's time, I'm not sure how 'significant' this is.

    Small, but significant detail from this report from Clarissa Ward on the ground in Damascus today.

    Ward previously wore hijab in reports from rebel Syria.

    Today she speaks to a Syrian woman, both without hijab, with other women without hijab visible among rebels in the back.
    https://x.com/KareemRifai/status/1866501302634619079

    I am very guardedly optimistic, but the range of possible outcomes, from amazing to absolutely disastrous, is huge.

    I've noticed that the female TV reporters in Syria are almost making a thing of not wearing a headscarf. Well, was actually pointed out to me by a Syrian guy in the office.
    https://depositphotos.com/editorial/damascus-syria-2010-famous-historic-covered-market-hamidiyah-souq-old-445391748.html

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2010/jul/20/syria-bans-niqab-from-universities
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,427
    Nigelb said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    I'm amused by the notion private sector workers are going to be delighted to vote Labour given recent policies of flinging private sector taxpayers' cash at public sector workers and increasing taxes on the private sector while the public sector gets exempted.

    It all depends on whether the private sector worker believes they are getting value for money for their taxes. A functioning NHS, education, utilities, transport and visible service provision, personal safety, stopping the boats and they will be fine with voting Labour. Whether any are achieved or even achievable is another matter.

    Tories/Reform know the cost of everything and the value of nothing.
    It will be interesting to see how the main parties tackle Reform and Farage, whose populism might be undermined by his more Thatcherite than Thatcher small state economics that would abolish the NHS. Would Kemi in particular challenge Reform on this?
    If as Hitler claimed propaganda is the main driver for power, Nigel won't need to explain away his policies. He doesn't like foreigners (except his partners) and he is on the BBC/ITV/ Sky/ GeeBeebies at every opportunity. Seems like a winning combination to me.

    I think Kemi rolls with Nigel. We do have a history in voting against our own best interests. See Brexit.
    As a small favour, can I request that he is called Farage ?
    Indeed. My mistake.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 56,170
    Pulpstar said:

    Malmesbury said:

    Nigelb said:

    Unless it is still the case in a year's time, I'm not sure how 'significant' this is.

    Small, but significant detail from this report from Clarissa Ward on the ground in Damascus today.

    Ward previously wore hijab in reports from rebel Syria.

    Today she speaks to a Syrian woman, both without hijab, with other women without hijab visible among rebels in the back.
    https://x.com/KareemRifai/status/1866501302634619079

    I am very guardedly optimistic, but the range of possible outcomes, from amazing to absolutely disastrous, is huge.

    I've noticed that the female TV reporters in Syria are almost making a thing of not wearing a headscarf. Well, was actually pointed out to me by a Syrian guy in the office.
    https://depositphotos.com/editorial/damascus-syria-2010-famous-historic-covered-market-hamidiyah-souq-old-445391748.html

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2010/jul/20/syria-bans-niqab-from-universities
    The niqab is very different from a headscarf.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,427
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Damp and mouldy housing could see personnel leave military
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn85r1l2vypo

    You didn't get that under the Tories!
  • CookieCookie Posts: 15,747
    edited December 2024
    NickPalmer said:

    Cookie said:

    Foxy said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    On Topic.

    Really interesting.

    FPTP really is a rubbish system plus if any other system were used voting patterns would likely favour the smaller Parties like the Greens even more as people vote for the Party thet actually want rather than for one of the 2 big parties to stop the other big Party

    In theory the results in the table are adjusted for that, based on a poll asking who people would really vote for if we had PR.
    This exercise is really hard to do, and all sorts of caveats apply. There was an excellent study done after the 1992 GE ('replaying the 1992 election', or something like that) which for me remains the gold standard in such exercises. Voters' approach to voting would change, non-voters would become voters (and vice versa), parties would campaign differently, other parties miggt emerge.
    This isn't to criticise the ERS, who acknowledge this. But care must be taken in drawing conclusions.
    Yes, here in rural Oxfordshire there are loads of Labour voters (indeed members) who vote LibDem, as the perceived alternative to the Tories. I imagine the exact reverse is true in many urban constituencies. The full report that Cookie refers to is here:
    https://www.researchgate.net/publication/382239053_Replaying_the_1992_Election_How_Britain_would_have_voted_under_alternative_electoral_systems
    "Here" in rural Oxfordshire? Have you moved on from Surrey? (Thanks Nick for doing the hard work for me!)
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 25,017
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Police arrest 93 gang members behind £4m thefts in shoplifting crackdown
    A new police unit has for the first time mapped the gangs targeting shops around the country to see where they're operating.
    https://news.sky.com/story/flatplan-13270885

    Geography is not just for running through fields of wheat. Who knew?

    At first glance it sounds like a big operation. But if £4m the retail value, they are probably selling it on <50% so <£2m. Divvied up between the 93 thats £21k each. Not unsubstantial but worth risking your liberty for? And then we are told the arrested ones are part of a much bigger crime gang. So far less than £21k each. Then expenses for travelling around the country.

    Crime doesn't pay particularly well for most, maybe less than minimum wage, is what I take from that report.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,925
    edited December 2024
    Malmesbury said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Malmesbury said:

    Nigelb said:

    Unless it is still the case in a year's time, I'm not sure how 'significant' this is.

    Small, but significant detail from this report from Clarissa Ward on the ground in Damascus today.

    Ward previously wore hijab in reports from rebel Syria.

    Today she speaks to a Syrian woman, both without hijab, with other women without hijab visible among rebels in the back.
    https://x.com/KareemRifai/status/1866501302634619079

    I am very guardedly optimistic, but the range of possible outcomes, from amazing to absolutely disastrous, is huge.

    I've noticed that the female TV reporters in Syria are almost making a thing of not wearing a headscarf. Well, was actually pointed out to me by a Syrian guy in the office.
    https://depositphotos.com/editorial/damascus-syria-2010-famous-historic-covered-market-hamidiyah-souq-old-445391748.html

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2010/jul/20/syria-bans-niqab-from-universities
    The niqab is very different from a headscarf.
    Note the 1st picture.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,966
    Morris_Dancer said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Foxy said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    I'm amused by the notion private sector workers are going to be delighted to vote Labour given recent policies of flinging private sector taxpayers' cash at public sector workers and increasing taxes on the private sector while the public sector gets exempted.

    Simple solution take a job in the public sector if you think it's well paid and easy money. I recommend a nursing assistant role on grade 2 (over 7000 vacancies )
    It is fun how every 'public sector worker' becomes a nurse. And be glad of the private sector. That's the sole source of wages for the public sector.
    That's just silly.

    I do not only contribute to the economy when working at Spire, I do exactly the same work on the NHS. How is one a boost to the economy and the other a drain?
    In purely financial terms, every public sector worker is a net cost. Your taxes in the public sector reduce the cost they don't make up for it.

    Of course, the essential services (health, education, bin collection etc) are needed. But without the private sector they wouldn't be possible. If that were not the case, the state could simply employ everyone and watch miraculous tax revenues and endless growth.

    Hammer the private sector to fund the desperately virtuous public sector and economic growth gets hit, which in the long term is not just bad for those in the private sector, but the zealous left so keen on spending tax revenue, which also drops.

    Mr. Owls, the cultish applause for the NHS was indeed a disturbing trend,
    Really enlightening to hear your thoughts on the disturbing trend of people being grateful for the NHS saving lives.

    I think even ungrateful types like yourself still get treated for "free"
    Mr. Owls, cultish devotion is always disturbing.

    I didn't applaud for the local supermarket during the pandemic, even though I was very glad indeed it was there. As for ingratitude, I suppose you'll just have to use my avatar for a quick Two Minutes Hate.
    Do you not have a Cultish devotion to Capitalism?

    Or are some Cultish devotions acceptable?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,575
    edited December 2024
    Morris_Dancer said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Foxy said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    I'm amused by the notion private sector workers are going to be delighted to vote Labour given recent policies of flinging private sector taxpayers' cash at public sector workers and increasing taxes on the private sector while the public sector gets exempted.

    Simple solution take a job in the public sector if you think it's well paid and easy money. I recommend a nursing assistant role on grade 2 (over 7000 vacancies )
    It is fun how every 'public sector worker' becomes a nurse. And be glad of the private sector. That's the sole source of wages for the public sector.
    That's just silly.

    I do not only contribute to the economy when working at Spire, I do exactly the same work on the NHS. How is one a boost to the economy and the other a drain?
    In purely financial terms, every public sector worker is a net cost. Your taxes in the public sector reduce the cost they don't make up for it.

    Of course, the essential services (health, education, bin collection etc) are needed. But without the private sector they wouldn't be possible. If that were not the case, the state could simply employ everyone and watch miraculous tax revenues and endless growth.

    Hammer the private sector to fund the desperately virtuous public sector and economic growth gets hit, which in the long term is not just bad for those in the private sector, but the zealous left so keen on spending tax revenue, which also drops.

    Mr. Owls, the cultish applause for the NHS was indeed a disturbing trend,
    Really enlightening to hear your thoughts on the disturbing trend of people being grateful for the NHS saving lives.

    I think even ungrateful types like yourself still get treated for "free"
    Mr. Owls, cultish devotion is always disturbing.

    I didn't applaud for the local supermarket during the pandemic, even though I was very glad indeed it was there. As for ingratitude, I suppose you'll just have to use my avatar for a quick Two Minutes Hate.
    Were there any other countries that had something similar to the applause for health workers thing (of which I did not partake)? Perhaps Britain is a country of cultish devotion (see also Royal family).
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,475
    Malmesbury said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Police arrest 93 gang members behind £4m thefts in shoplifting crackdown
    A new police unit has for the first time mapped the gangs targeting shops around the country to see where they're operating.
    https://news.sky.com/story/flatplan-13270885

    Geography is not just for running through fields of wheat. Who knew?

    I thought it was entirely about Oxbow lakes?
    I did coal and steel in the Northeast. Mrs Thatcher made my O level Geography redundant.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,427
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Foxy said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    I'm amused by the notion private sector workers are going to be delighted to vote Labour given recent policies of flinging private sector taxpayers' cash at public sector workers and increasing taxes on the private sector while the public sector gets exempted.

    Simple solution take a job in the public sector if you think it's well paid and easy money. I recommend a nursing assistant role on grade 2 (over 7000 vacancies )
    It is fun how every 'public sector worker' becomes a nurse. And be glad of the private sector. That's the sole source of wages for the public sector.
    That's just silly.

    I do not only contribute to the economy when working at Spire, I do exactly the same work on the NHS. How is one a boost to the economy and the other a drain?
    In purely financial terms, every public sector worker is a net cost. Your taxes in the public sector reduce the cost they don't make up for it.

    Of course, the essential services (health, education, bin collection etc) are needed. But without the private sector they wouldn't be possible. If that were not the case, the state could simply employ everyone and watch miraculous tax revenues and endless growth.

    Hammer the private sector to fund the desperately virtuous public sector and economic growth gets hit, which in the long term is not just bad for those in the private sector, but the zealous left so keen on spending tax revenue, which also drops.

    Mr. Owls, the cultish applause for the NHS was indeed a disturbing trend,
    Really enlightening to hear your thoughts on the disturbing trend of people being grateful for the NHS saving lives.

    I think even ungrateful types like yourself still get treated for "free"
    Mr. Owls, cultish devotion is always disturbing.

    I didn't applaud for the local supermarket during the pandemic, even though I was very glad indeed it was there. As for ingratitude, I suppose you'll just have to use my avatar for a quick Two Minutes Hate.
    Were there any other countries that had something similar to the applause for health workers thing (of which I did not partake)? Perhaps Britain is a country of cultish devotion (see also Royal family).
    I hope you clapped for Boris when he took a bout of COVID for the team. He nearly died you know, but his resilience kept the national pecker up, so every Thursday we clapped for Boris. Stuff the lazy nurses.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 28,885
    rkrkrk said:

    Public sector workers, particularly those in healthcare often have the problem that there is a singe employer with monopsony power. So their wages can be artificially low due to lack of competition.

    I don't think that is accurate.

    For example the NHS only has a little under half of nurses on the register working there, and it is made up of many organisations - including those such as GP Practices which are private businesses.

    Then there is the private medicine, and other places that have nurses, plus contract, cover and so on.

    https://www.nurses.co.uk/blog/stats-and-facts-uk-nursing-social-care-and-healthcare/
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,575
    Mexicanpete said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Foxy said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    I'm amused by the notion private sector workers are going to be delighted to vote Labour given recent policies of flinging private sector taxpayers' cash at public sector workers and increasing taxes on the private sector while the public sector gets exempted.

    Simple solution take a job in the public sector if you think it's well paid and easy money. I recommend a nursing assistant role on grade 2 (over 7000 vacancies )
    It is fun how every 'public sector worker' becomes a nurse. And be glad of the private sector. That's the sole source of wages for the public sector.
    That's just silly.

    I do not only contribute to the economy when working at Spire, I do exactly the same work on the NHS. How is one a boost to the economy and the other a drain?
    In purely financial terms, every public sector worker is a net cost. Your taxes in the public sector reduce the cost they don't make up for it.

    Of course, the essential services (health, education, bin collection etc) are needed. But without the private sector they wouldn't be possible. If that were not the case, the state could simply employ everyone and watch miraculous tax revenues and endless growth.

    Hammer the private sector to fund the desperately virtuous public sector and economic growth gets hit, which in the long term is not just bad for those in the private sector, but the zealous left so keen on spending tax revenue, which also drops.

    Mr. Owls, the cultish applause for the NHS was indeed a disturbing trend,
    Really enlightening to hear your thoughts on the disturbing trend of people being grateful for the NHS saving lives.

    I think even ungrateful types like yourself still get treated for "free"
    Mr. Owls, cultish devotion is always disturbing.

    I didn't applaud for the local supermarket during the pandemic, even though I was very glad indeed it was there. As for ingratitude, I suppose you'll just have to use my avatar for a quick Two Minutes Hate.
    Were there any other countries that had something similar to the applause for health workers thing (of which I did not partake)? Perhaps Britain is a country of cultish devotion (see also Royal family).
    I hope you clapped for Boris when he took a bout of COVID for the team. He nearly died you know, but his resilience kept the national pecker up, so every Thursday we clapped for Boris. Stuff the lazy nurses.
    On a connected note, and to make a change of tedious bicker from CASH, private v public sectors etc.
    The combination of John Simpson and a French institute may have veins in foreheads bulging, but that's a feature not a bug.



    https://x.com/JohnSimpsonNews/status/1866184573182218522

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,966
    Mexicanpete said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    I'm amused by the notion private sector workers are going to be delighted to vote Labour given recent policies of flinging private sector taxpayers' cash at public sector workers and increasing taxes on the private sector while the public sector gets exempted.

    Simple solution take a job in the public sector if you think it's well paid and easy money. I recommend a nursing assistant role on grade 2 (over 7000 vacancies )
    It is fun how every 'public sector worker' becomes a nurse. And be glad of the private sector. That's the sole source of wages for the public sector.
    Yes wealth creators are famously amazingly generous with their "hard earned" lot.

    I remember during Covid how the people lined the streets to applaud them
    Captain Tom and Hannah?
    Cult supporters apparently
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