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Trumped – why the Democrats lost and what they need to do next – politicalbetting.com
Trumped – why the Democrats lost and what they need to do next – politicalbetting.com
We all expected a nail-biter that would take a week to decide. In the end, it wasn’t even that close. The Democrats are going to have do some serious soul searching and here are some of the lessons, I think they need to learn.
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‘My 12th-century castle is at risk under Labour’s tax raid – I’m so angry’
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/property/12th-century-castle-might-not-survive-labour-government/
But, the Democrats’ inability to win rural America really threatens their Senate chances. They’ve remained competitive in the Senate only thanks to the Republicans selecting batshit candidates (a Republican should have had no difficulty winning the Arizona Senate race.)
It’s a very recent thing. Back in 2004, they held three seats in the Dakotas, and one in Nebraska.
As the header itself notes, but doesn't quantify.
NB: one area I won’t focus on is the economy. It definitely cost the Democrats but is something that was less in their control...
I think the Democrats would be best advised to wait and see what the new administration does next year, rather than engaging in an internal battle of blame.
The structure of primaries for gerrymandered districts can't help either- a politician lives or dies according to how well they pander to the baser instincts of their base.
FF 21% (+2 since the last poll from this firm two weeks ago)
SF 20% (+1)
FG 19% (-6)
Grn 4% (+1)
Lab 4% (-1)
SocDems 6% (+2)
PBP-S 3% (+1)
Aontú 3% (nc)
Independents/Others 17% (-3)
If Fine Gael do badly enough not to be part of the next coalition then Simon Harris will be the shortest-serving Taoiseach in the history of the state.
https://www.irishtimes.com/politics/2024/11/25/irish-times-poll-fine-gael-support-slumps-as-general-election-campaign-enters-final-stretch/
“Spiking will be made a criminal offence.
My government was elected to take back our streets, central to this mission is making sure women and girls can feel safe at night.
Perpetrators of spiking will feel the full force of the law.”
https://x.com/keir_starmer/status/1860956752524575054?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
It positively SCREAMS “pathetic, clueless and out of ideas”. After 5 months
That’s not analogous to various political leaders calling for a second referendum
(And politicians calling for a general election is just knockabout theatre)
If they had the actual guts to call for a second referendum, rather than get upset that they couldn’t be both pro and anti Brexit… but no.
I spoke to one - “but I would lose my seat!”
Guess what. She did, anyway.
Elissa Slotkin, who just won her senate race, previously won a rural congressional district from the Republicans.
But in most places it would take a significant national political upheaval to reset the paradigm. Trump's second administration might provide that - though quite how he will govern is as yet not clear.
But that could happen whether he's a disaster (IMO reasonably likely, FWIW), or an unexpected success.
Suggests the policy won't raise as much as the government think, and land should be taxed at 40% if you sell after inheriting. You don't pay IHT right now if you sell land you have inherited
https://taxpolicy.org.uk/2024/11/24/how-to-stop-iht-avoidance-but-protect-farmers/
Starmer's government is starting to look completely clueless. It's still just possible they might surprise us, but if so, they'd better get a shift on.
It's beginning to feel like the 1970s again.
(That we're useless.)
Labour really do need to get Dan looking at Tax because he is one of the experts on tax avoidance..
I see the argument that there are better things to do but making things, really really clear cut and obvious seems fine to me.
https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/Vict/24-25/100/section/24
Whosoever shall unlawfully and maliciously administer to or cause to be administered to or taken by any other person any poison or other destructive or noxious thing, with intent to injure, aggrieve, or annoy such person, shall be guilty of a misdemeanor, and being convicted thereof shall be liable . . .
I'd also add that, in this case, you have foreign interference in it, promoting it.
News story
Spiking to be targeted in raft of new measures
Language in legislation is set to be updated to reflect the modern day crime.
From:
Home Office, Laura Farris and The Rt Hon James Cleverly MP
Published
18 December 2023
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/spiking-to-be-targeted-in-raft-of-new-measures
Mr. Password, "Effectively enforcing existing laws is difficult. Adding yet another [poorly-enforced] law is easy."
That's very unfair. This isn't about adding a new pointless law to the legal code. It's about adding a new pointless law to the legal code to get a headline.
Next up: Starmer vows War on Death as he makes murdering people illegal.
In the same way, my extensive
anti-money laundering training could be very useful indeedHasn’t every government since Blair and Brown faced petitions to resign or call an election whenever they were behind in the polls, all of which get quickly filed in the shredder?
This one does appear to have been noticed in the US, judging by the Twitter comments, so I’m sure those in charge of the process will have fun weeding out a bunch of ineligible ‘signatures’ from overseas.
Misogyny: 22% of Americans don't think a woman should be president.
K's focus on women: Kamala spoke to women and virtually ignored men
The woke issue: Trump successfully used K's past position against her
I think there were about 6-8 factors contributing to Kamala's defeat (Gareth describes some of them) - none of them decisive on their own. But in combination brought her down. Some factors were within her control - lessons to be learned. Others weren't.
Biggest overhaul of local government in over 50 years
- Dozens of councils abolished to make more "efficient" large authorities with populations of 500k+
- First wave of restructuring includes Essex, Kent, Surrey, Hertfordshire, Norfolk and Suffolk..
https://x.com/MaxKendix/status/1860810593835286739
Still on theme with the 1970s redux, of course.
Malicious … check
Noxious… check
Aggrieved… check
But I really don't think it matters where the next Democratic candidate is from as long as he can spout sunny, inspirational bullshit convincingly - see Clinton, Kennedy, Obama. (Or Reagan on the other side). There's a reason why America is the home of the Mormons, the Scientologists and the People's Temple, why it is the fount of the life coach industry and why the most popular genre of books there is self-help. They are less cynical and more sucker than we are - though, given how many fell for Blair's smiley inane vacuities, we can't be too superior.
Otherwise the Democrats tend to win in exceptional circumstances, like Johnson, after Kennedy and against Goldwater, Carter after Watergate or Biden during the pandemic.
As for foreign promotion I don’t know whether it is or it isn’t. But that’s a broader issue with social media that our politicians needs to get a grip on.b we have created a massive strategic vulnerability and haven’t even begun to respond to our adversaries exploiting it
(Which, messy and relatively inefficient as it is, is probably the way to get it to happen. Just don't call the directly-elected leaders Mayors.)
However, the main problem with prosecuting this sort of crime is gathering the evidence. I'm not convinced that a new law is going to make any difference in that regard. I'd be surprised if it led to more convictions and a reduction in incidence for this offence.
- People should (and do) have the right to have petitions.
- The system should (and does) recognise that these can be a reasonable expression of the opinion of a section of the community and may reflect wider public opinion. Hence the reason why I like the debate trigger.
- The system should not (and does not) recognise these as having a legal or moral weight equivalent to a formal vote. And certainly not 5 months after an election where everyone had the chance to cast their vote if they wanted to.
I am much on favour of the Swiss system of referendums but that is not the system we have in this country for anything except major constitutional changes and until we do have them formalised, these petitions should be taken for what they are - a small snapshot of the opinion of a vocal minority.
What do I have to do to get drowned in a barrel of Malmsey wine?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Roose
A member of Trump’s new cabinet says Trump will end the Ukraine war by threatening Putin that he will flood Ukraine with weaponry
“Sebastian Gorka, who Trump just named a Director of national security policy in the White House, says that Trump's strategy for ending the Ukraine war will include threatening Putin to provide Ukraine with exponentially more military "aid"”
https://x.com/mtracey/status/1860427126429696053?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
If Trump turns out to be BETTER for Ukraine than Biden that will explode heads
https://prezenta.roaep.ro/prezidentiale24112024/pv/romania/results/
1,519 between Lasconi and Ciolacu.
A map of Georgescu's support would I imagine be similar to Trump's in terms of rural/urban.
2m is quite something, but it can be ignored with some awkward effort
5m would be a phenomenon in itself
10m+ and we’d be in uncharted territory
30m the government falls?
Clearly they are highly unlikely to reach even 5m, or even 3m, but it is not impossible
O/T from The Sun This morning.
Well Kellie, I’m not entirely sure that telling a national newspaper is the best way to avoid the other mums finding out your secret and judging you.
But this is a big “if” and a big “might”
The gentleman doth protest a little too much. He's making comparisons to the 1950-60s, when Estate Duty peaked at 80%+ .
After all, the GOP could have pressurised Biden to flood Ukraine with weaponry. Instead, they starved Ukraine of weapons for months.
https://www.londoncentric.media/p/westminster-bridge-ice-cream-vans-illegal-gambling
While Starmer is creating new laws to make things that are illegal that are already illegal, again the authorities just let all this stuff slide....although the broken window theory cleanup of NYC is not the magic bullet and the stats show crime decreasing in other American cities at that time, as somebody who regular visited, it was undeniable that it was just a much better place to be.
We also have the seeming shrug of mobile phone snatching by people on illegal ebikes, as its just what happens in London.
I had to have a 2nd breakfast - Bilbo Baggins style - to have the time to read and reflect.
I'm not sure that "too ruthless" was the main problem of the previous Government; I'd go for "too gormless" or "too hopeless".
Surpised, too - but I would expect my head to remain intact.
Note, though, the source.
Gorka is not exactly reliable. Or even sane.
However Putin will be much warier of Trump than the plodding, weak, predictable Biden
If.
Still, in the awful context of Ukraine, even a faint shred of optimism is welcome
If Trump ends the Ukrainian war with a Russian 'victory', then he will be damned to eternity. And we will be a step nearer WW3.
On topic, well, yes and I'm sure the Democrats themselves will be carrying out their own post mortem (I'm sure the Conservatives here are doing the same even though some of their supporters seem to think if they huff anf puff loud enough they can bring down a Government with a majority of 170).
I don't disagree with a lot of what @GarethoftheVale2 says - I do think the economy or rather the perception (which I hear in Britain a lot) that everyone is worse off then they were was important.
It raises a wider question as to the extent on which any democratic system is built on the shifting sands of prosperity and little else. When economic times get hard, people look for more "radical" solutions - we saw it, to an extent in the 1970s and there's no doubt when one generation feels worse off then its predecessors, a lot of what we assume about society and the "societal contract" comes under threat. At a primal level, people want to be better off then their parents and want their children to be better off than them and when that's not happening it creates huge tensions.
Trump and the Republicans have to deliver on their promises between now and 2028 - given they run the Senate and Congress until 2026, there's no hiding place if it doesn't work and I'd dispute the notion Democrats cannot come roaring back if the Republican programme fails.
As we saw here, following an iconic leader isn't easy - I could imagine Vance winning in 2028 and facing a hostile Congress, then a hostile Senate and suffering a huge defeat in 2032 which would reset the Republicans to Year Zero.
To argue the converse, IF Trump's policies work and the American and global economies start koving strongly forward, his line will become de rigueur policiy across the western world. A lot of peoplem didn't think Thatcherism would work but it delivered but as a man from Sheffield once opined "that was then and this is now".
Which didn't propel Jo Swinson to Number 10.
1. Russian defeat in the Ukraine is a good thing.
2. It's so good that Biden and co must be denied that success.
3. So stop Biden supporting Ukraine.
4. Then, once I'm back on my rightful place, turn the taps on full.
Doing the right thing for selfish narcissistic reasons is still doing the right thing. And sometimes, it's the only way to get the right thing done.
Alternatively, Gorka is another victim of the Trump hustle. Assuming that Trump doesn't really mean the thing Trump has repeatedly said that ought to have ruled him out. There's quite a bit of it about.
They should not ignore the economy though. For while it hit them this time as they were the incumbents next time in the 2026 midterms and 2028 presidential election the Democrats will be the opposition party. If prices are rising due to Trump's tariffs they could exploit that
The other straw in the wind is that his choice for defence secretary is a Christian nationalist, who opposes any overseas commitments (including deep scepticism about NATO), and any aid to Ukraine.
I would suggest a more informative read is this post-election survey: https://navigatorresearch.org/2024-post-election-survey-the-reasons-for-voting-for-trump-and-harris/
“Trump held a 12-point advantage among the 2024 electorate on the state of the national economy (40 percent more of a reason to support Harris – 52 percent more of a reason to support Trump) and a 13-point advantage on the level of inflation (52 percent) than more of a reason to support Harris (39 percent). Among “swing voters” — those who did not rule out voting for Trump or Harris from the start of the campaign, and whom Trump won by 8 points — Trump held a 39-point advantage on the level of inflation being more of a reason to support him (23 percent more of a reason to support Harris – 62 percent more of a reason to support Trump) and a 37-point advantage on the state of the national economy being more of a reason to support him (24 percent more of a reason to support Harris – 61 percent more of a reason to support Trump).”
With my Jaunty Beret of Optimism on, I’d say it might go something like this: Trump threatens Putin as suggested. End the war now or we give Zelensky 3000 stealth fighters. Freeze the front lines where they are. Korean armistice
Putin reluctantly agrees; Zelensky wearily agrees
Trump turns to us, the Europeans, and says “right I’ve ended the war now you’ve got to defend democratic Ukraine the way the USA defends South Korea”
(The USA keeps 30,000 troops and much weaponry in Korea)
That ends the war and it’s a good deal for Trump and he looks like a winner