COP29, which started badly with plenty of no shows, is now on the verge of a complete breakdown, and that's on top of the Commonwealth hustle and FUBAR last month:
If they are, and I fear they may well be, then our descendants are basically fucked. The high point of international cooperation has been and gone, and the future is one of nationalist insanity and environmental destruction.
Darwin got it all wrong. We're regressing.
Evolution is not teleological. Darwin never said it always means "progress or improvement"
Yes, things can zig zag. I know that.
Anyway, as I now keep saying to all and sundry, Left Populism is coming. A radical economic offer for the struggling classes without the tacky xenophobic nostalgia that defines the right wing version.
It won't get funded by billionaires (for obvious reasons) but that won't matter once it gets rolling. I'm in. ✊️🕺
(please refrain from the very tedious "lol" if you choose to reply, which you shouldn't feel you have to)
I have seen you suggest this a couple of times and I don't really get it. Left populism would be an utter disaster for all of us (see Venezuela for an obvious example).
Populism is the enemy of progress, both of the left and right variety, and I think of you as a progressive. What's going on?
I mean a politics that shifts wealth and opportunity in favour of those who are in most need without corruption or financial recklessness or xenophobic obsession with borders and immigration. Nothing like Venezuela.
What do you honestly think will happen if Britain becomes, say, 30% Muslim? Or 40%? Think about it, and be honest
He can't. He wants to live in his bubble.
We couldn't accept that level and nor could any European country.
I agree, but that means necessarily at some point:
European countries bring in nation- or culture-specific restrictions on Islamic migration, which at the moment is entirely unpalatable to a lot of lefties, or indeed lots of people (and I can see why)
And/or
European countries start restricting displays of Islamic religion as a deterrent. Minarets, burqas, etc. We already see that in France and Switzerland
And/or
European countries start "voluntary deportation" of migrants. Already happening in Sweden
I predict this will all get a lot worse before it gets better
I think restricting and revoking visas and residency for people who don't align to our cultural values is necessary. It's going to upset people but we're allowing the viper into the nest because people are scared to say that vipers aren't good for nests.
Again, to repeat what I have posted many times in the past, we should be looking to Norway for our example here. 300 hours of compulsory language and culture lessons and immigrants don't get to choose where the live. They are assigned a county where they have to settle to avoid the creation of ghettos. It works.
Does it? Even Norway has serious problems. Probably only Denmark is seriously attempting - with success - to address this. Hence the re-election of their social democrat government, which is hard right - to an eye-watering degree by UK standards - on migration, culture, and asylum
Norway has serious problems with right wing biker gangs buring down churches. They don't have any real issues with immigrant populations - certainly nothing to copare with most other European countries.
If you remember this is why I was so convinced - along with you - that the 2011 attacks would turn out to be a right wing nutter rather than a muslim attack.
Norway is mercifully free of terror attacks, and of course Breivik was the worst by far
However of the 13 attacks since the year 2000, 8 or 9 appear to be Muslim/Islamist - ie the majority
"Fertility rates among Muslim women in the UK tend to decrease with each successive generation. Recent Muslim immigrants often have higher fertility rates (3.4) compared to second (2.6) or third-generation Muslims (2.1). This trend aligns with broader patterns observed among immigrant populations, where fertility rates typically converge with national averages over time."
And 2.1 is well above the national average, it's what 1.4 at the moment? Additionally the Muslim population in the UK is much younger than the average age so there are fewer older Muslims dying.
Sure, but 2.1 is only replacement level in absolute numbers.
The problem is not that they're "breeding out of control", especially once you get to second or third generation, it's that the indigenous population is not having kids.
But Robert the discussion seems to be whether we should expect the share of the population that is Muslim to increase (irrespective of migration numbers). On the evidence of your fertility figures the answer is yes.
"Fertility rates among Muslim women in the UK tend to decrease with each successive generation. Recent Muslim immigrants often have higher fertility rates (3.4) compared to second (2.6) or third-generation Muslims (2.1). This trend aligns with broader patterns observed among immigrant populations, where fertility rates typically converge with national averages over time."
What are you doing bringing facts to an ideology fight?
"Fertility rates among Muslim women in the UK tend to decrease with each successive generation. Recent Muslim immigrants often have higher fertility rates (3.4) compared to second (2.6) or third-generation Muslims (2.1). This trend aligns with broader patterns observed among immigrant populations, where fertility rates typically converge with national averages over time."
Only three generations to replacement. That's really interesting.
COP29, which started badly with plenty of no shows, is now on the verge of a complete breakdown, and that's on top of the Commonwealth hustle and FUBAR last month:
If they are, and I fear they may well be, then our descendants are basically fucked. The high point of international cooperation has been and gone, and the future is one of nationalist insanity and environmental destruction.
Darwin got it all wrong. We're regressing.
Evolution is not teleological. Darwin never said it always means "progress or improvement"
Yes, things can zig zag. I know that.
Anyway, as I now keep saying to all and sundry, Left Populism is coming. A radical economic offer for the struggling classes without the tacky xenophobic nostalgia that defines the right wing version.
It won't get funded by billionaires (for obvious reasons) but that won't matter once it gets rolling. I'm in. ✊️🕺
(please refrain from the very tedious "lol" if you choose to reply, which you shouldn't feel you have to)
I have seen you suggest this a couple of times and I don't really get it. Left populism would be an utter disaster for all of us (see Venezuela for an obvious example).
Populism is the enemy of progress, both of the left and right variety, and I think of you as a progressive. What's going on?
I mean a politics that shifts wealth and opportunity in favour of those who are in most need without corruption or financial recklessness or xenophobic obsession with borders and immigration. Nothing like Venezuela.
What do you honestly think will happen if Britain becomes, say, 30% Muslim? Or 40%? Think about it, and be honest
He can't. He wants to live in his bubble.
We couldn't accept that level and nor could any European country.
I agree, but that means necessarily at some point:
European countries bring in nation- or culture-specific restrictions on Islamic migration, which at the moment is entirely unpalatable to a lot of lefties, or indeed lots of people (and I can see why)
And/or
European countries start restricting displays of Islamic religion as a deterrent. Minarets, burqas, etc. We already see that in France and Switzerland
And/or
European countries start "voluntary deportation" of migrants. Already happening in Sweden
I predict this will all get a lot worse before it gets better
I think restricting and revoking visas and residency for people who don't align to our cultural values is necessary. It's going to upset people but we're allowing the viper into the nest because people are scared to say that vipers aren't good for nests.
Ultimately, realpolitik will beat fear of being seen to be racist.
I think it eventually results in Nigel Farage or the future equivalent becoming PM in a Reform/Tory coalition and putting in some pretty unsavoury policies.
Which will still probably well to the Left of what the Danish government is doing now.
Sweden achieving net emigration shows what is possible without having to do anything too dramatic.
Is anyone really that interested in the royals these days? I quite like Chazzy Boy as a bloke and Wills seems like a decent sort. But the whole institution is cruel for those who are born into it. A dreadful life in the goldfish bowl. Time to move on.
COP29, which started badly with plenty of no shows, is now on the verge of a complete breakdown, and that's on top of the Commonwealth hustle and FUBAR last month:
If they are, and I fear they may well be, then our descendants are basically fucked. The high point of international cooperation has been and gone, and the future is one of nationalist insanity and environmental destruction.
Darwin got it all wrong. We're regressing.
Evolution is not teleological. Darwin never said it always means "progress or improvement"
Yes, things can zig zag. I know that.
Anyway, as I now keep saying to all and sundry, Left Populism is coming. A radical economic offer for the struggling classes without the tacky xenophobic nostalgia that defines the right wing version.
It won't get funded by billionaires (for obvious reasons) but that won't matter once it gets rolling. I'm in. ✊️🕺
(please refrain from the very tedious "lol" if you choose to reply, which you shouldn't feel you have to)
I have seen you suggest this a couple of times and I don't really get it. Left populism would be an utter disaster for all of us (see Venezuela for an obvious example).
Populism is the enemy of progress, both of the left and right variety, and I think of you as a progressive. What's going on?
I mean a politics that shifts wealth and opportunity in favour of those who are in most need without corruption or financial recklessness or xenophobic obsession with borders and immigration. Nothing like Venezuela.
What do you honestly think will happen if Britain becomes, say, 30% Muslim? Or 40%? Think about it, and be honest
He can't. He wants to live in his bubble.
We couldn't accept that level and nor could any European country.
I agree, but that means necessarily at some point:
European countries bring in nation- or culture-specific restrictions on Islamic migration, which at the moment is entirely unpalatable to a lot of lefties, or indeed lots of people (and I can see why)
And/or
European countries start restricting displays of Islamic religion as a deterrent. Minarets, burqas, etc. We already see that in France and Switzerland
And/or
European countries start "voluntary deportation" of migrants. Already happening in Sweden
I predict this will all get a lot worse before it gets better
I think restricting and revoking visas and residency for people who don't align to our cultural values is necessary. It's going to upset people but we're allowing the viper into the nest because people are scared to say that vipers aren't good for nests.
Again, to repeat what I have posted many times in the past, we should be looking to Norway for our example here. 300 hours of compulsory language and culture lessons and immigrants don't get to choose where the live. They are assigned a county where they have to settle to avoid the creation of ghettos. It works.
Does it? Even Norway has serious problems. Probably only Denmark is seriously attempting - with success - to address this. Hence the re-election of their social democrat government, which is hard right - to an eye-watering degree by UK standards - on migration, culture, and asylum
Norway has serious problems with right wing biker gangs buring down churches. They don't have any real issues with immigrant populations - certainly nothing to copare with most other European countries.
If you remember this is why I was so convinced - along with you - that the 2011 attacks would turn out to be a right wing nutter rather than a muslim attack.
Norway is mercifully free of terror attacks, and of course Breivik was the worst by far
However of the 13 attacks since the year 2000, 8 or 9 appear to be Muslim/Islamist - ie the majority
COP29, which started badly with plenty of no shows, is now on the verge of a complete breakdown, and that's on top of the Commonwealth hustle and FUBAR last month:
If they are, and I fear they may well be, then our descendants are basically fucked. The high point of international cooperation has been and gone, and the future is one of nationalist insanity and environmental destruction.
Darwin got it all wrong. We're regressing.
Evolution is not teleological. Darwin never said it always means "progress or improvement"
Yes, things can zig zag. I know that.
Anyway, as I now keep saying to all and sundry, Left Populism is coming. A radical economic offer for the struggling classes without the tacky xenophobic nostalgia that defines the right wing version.
It won't get funded by billionaires (for obvious reasons) but that won't matter once it gets rolling. I'm in. ✊️🕺
(please refrain from the very tedious "lol" if you choose to reply, which you shouldn't feel you have to)
I have seen you suggest this a couple of times and I don't really get it. Left populism would be an utter disaster for all of us (see Venezuela for an obvious example).
Populism is the enemy of progress, both of the left and right variety, and I think of you as a progressive. What's going on?
I mean a politics that shifts wealth and opportunity in favour of those who are in most need without corruption or financial recklessness or xenophobic obsession with borders and immigration. Nothing like Venezuela.
What do you honestly think will happen if Britain becomes, say, 30% Muslim? Or 40%? Think about it, and be honest
He can't. He wants to live in his bubble.
We couldn't accept that level and nor could any European country.
I agree, but that means necessarily at some point:
European countries bring in nation- or culture-specific restrictions on Islamic migration, which at the moment is entirely unpalatable to a lot of lefties, or indeed lots of people (and I can see why)
And/or
European countries start restricting displays of Islamic religion as a deterrent. Minarets, burqas, etc. We already see that in France and Switzerland
And/or
European countries start "voluntary deportation" of migrants. Already happening in Sweden
I predict this will all get a lot worse before it gets better
I think restricting and revoking visas and residency for people who don't align to our cultural values is necessary. It's going to upset people but we're allowing the viper into the nest because people are scared to say that vipers aren't good for nests.
Again, to repeat what I have posted many times in the past, we should be looking to Norway for our example here. 300 hours of compulsory language and culture lessons and immigrants don't get to choose where the live. They are assigned a county where they have to settle to avoid the creation of ghettos. It works.
Does it? Even Norway has serious problems. Probably only Denmark is seriously attempting - with success - to address this. Hence the re-election of their social democrat government, which is hard right - to an eye-watering degree by UK standards - on migration, culture, and asylum
Norway has serious problems with right wing biker gangs buring down churches. They don't have any real issues with immigrant populations - certainly nothing to copare with most other European countries.
If you remember this is why I was so convinced - along with you - that the 2011 attacks would turn out to be a right wing nutter rather than a muslim attack.
Norway is mercifully free of terror attacks, and of course Breivik was the worst by far
However of the 13 attacks since the year 2000, 8 or 9 appear to be Muslim/Islamist - ie the majority
COP29, which started badly with plenty of no shows, is now on the verge of a complete breakdown, and that's on top of the Commonwealth hustle and FUBAR last month:
If they are, and I fear they may well be, then our descendants are basically fucked. The high point of international cooperation has been and gone, and the future is one of nationalist insanity and environmental destruction.
Darwin got it all wrong. We're regressing.
Evolution is not teleological. Darwin never said it always means "progress or improvement"
Yes, things can zig zag. I know that.
Anyway, as I now keep saying to all and sundry, Left Populism is coming. A radical economic offer for the struggling classes without the tacky xenophobic nostalgia that defines the right wing version.
It won't get funded by billionaires (for obvious reasons) but that won't matter once it gets rolling. I'm in. ✊️🕺
(please refrain from the very tedious "lol" if you choose to reply, which you shouldn't feel you have to)
I have seen you suggest this a couple of times and I don't really get it. Left populism would be an utter disaster for all of us (see Venezuela for an obvious example).
Populism is the enemy of progress, both of the left and right variety, and I think of you as a progressive. What's going on?
I mean a politics that shifts wealth and opportunity in favour of those who are in most need without corruption or financial recklessness or xenophobic obsession with borders and immigration. Nothing like Venezuela.
What do you honestly think will happen if Britain becomes, say, 30% Muslim? Or 40%? Think about it, and be honest
He can't. He wants to live in his bubble.
We couldn't accept that level and nor could any European country.
I agree, but that means necessarily at some point:
European countries bring in nation- or culture-specific restrictions on Islamic migration, which at the moment is entirely unpalatable to a lot of lefties, or indeed lots of people (and I can see why)
And/or
European countries start restricting displays of Islamic religion as a deterrent. Minarets, burqas, etc. We already see that in France and Switzerland
And/or
European countries start "voluntary deportation" of migrants. Already happening in Sweden
I predict this will all get a lot worse before it gets better
I think restricting and revoking visas and residency for people who don't align to our cultural values is necessary. It's going to upset people but we're allowing the viper into the nest because people are scared to say that vipers aren't good for nests.
Again, to repeat what I have posted many times in the past, we should be looking to Norway for our example here. 300 hours of compulsory language and culture lessons and immigrants don't get to choose where the live. They are assigned a county where they have to settle to avoid the creation of ghettos. It works.
Does it? Even Norway has serious problems. Probably only Denmark is seriously attempting - with success - to address this. Hence the re-election of their social democrat government, which is hard right - to an eye-watering degree by UK standards - on migration, culture, and asylum
Norway has serious problems with right wing biker gangs buring down churches. They don't have any real issues with immigrant populations - certainly nothing to copare with most other European countries.
If you remember this is why I was so convinced - along with you - that the 2011 attacks would turn out to be a right wing nutter rather than a muslim attack.
Norway is mercifully free of terror attacks, and of course Breivik was the worst by far
However of the 13 attacks since the year 2000, 8 or 9 appear to be Muslim/Islamist - ie the majority
COP29, which started badly with plenty of no shows, is now on the verge of a complete breakdown, and that's on top of the Commonwealth hustle and FUBAR last month:
If they are, and I fear they may well be, then our descendants are basically fucked. The high point of international cooperation has been and gone, and the future is one of nationalist insanity and environmental destruction.
Darwin got it all wrong. We're regressing.
Evolution is not teleological. Darwin never said it always means "progress or improvement"
Yes, things can zig zag. I know that.
Anyway, as I now keep saying to all and sundry, Left Populism is coming. A radical economic offer for the struggling classes without the tacky xenophobic nostalgia that defines the right wing version.
It won't get funded by billionaires (for obvious reasons) but that won't matter once it gets rolling. I'm in. ✊️🕺
(please refrain from the very tedious "lol" if you choose to reply, which you shouldn't feel you have to)
I have seen you suggest this a couple of times and I don't really get it. Left populism would be an utter disaster for all of us (see Venezuela for an obvious example).
Populism is the enemy of progress, both of the left and right variety, and I think of you as a progressive. What's going on?
I mean a politics that shifts wealth and opportunity in favour of those who are in most need without corruption or financial recklessness or xenophobic obsession with borders and immigration. Nothing like Venezuela.
What do you honestly think will happen if Britain becomes, say, 30% Muslim? Or 40%? Think about it, and be honest
At 50-60% we could even get Sharia law
Um… who was saying they haven’t seen much evidence of Great Replacement Theory cropping up on PB?
What's the difference between a conspiracy theory and a projection of current trends?
From the 2001 to the 2021 census, Islam went from 2.7% to 5.97%, so that’s an increase of 3.27%, or 0.16% per year. If we project that trend forward, the UK will reach 50% Muslim in 269 more years. That is, in 2290. I think it unlikely any trend would actually continue for over two and a half centuries.
That’s the difference between a conspiracy theory and a projection of current trends.
That's not how it works, the replacement rate for Muslims is much higher than it is for non-Muslims in the UK - they have more kids per family than everyone else so the growth isn't linear. I'd have thought someone with your background would have been able to work that out. You probably did but it wouldn't help your stupid point I guess.
Immigrant populations rapidly move to have fertility rates like the local population. This happens in a few generations. Third generation from a Pakistani or Bangladeshi heritage have a similar number of kids to White British parents, as do third generation from an Indian/Hindu heritage.
How many kids have you had? How many kids did your grandparents or great-grandparents have?
But that's not what's happened for Muslim people in the UK, you want it to be true but it's not. The fertility rate among Muslims is substantially higher than among everyone else. You're going to be sitting there one day in the future while Labour passed a bunch of hateful anti-gay legislation after being pushed into it by the Muslim party and you'll be telling yourself "at least I wasn't racist like those awful Tories".
There's a weird blind spot and accomodation of Islam by the left, it's the major part of the coalition that doesn't fit and eventually they'll form their own party and the tail will wag the dog. If you can't see that then I pity you. The sad part is you're smart enough that you probably do see it and realise that it's a path we're currently heading down but you're so far gone down the "mustn't be perceived as racist" road that there's no coming back. You can't repudiate it without admitting that maybe, just maybe, allowing millions of people who are opposed to our cultural values and have very strong beliefs in a stone age religion with backwards ideas was a poor idea.
Like the rest of the establishment you might get a scintilla of realisation from time to time but the fear of what you've allowed to happen will mean you will push that realisation aside and continue as if it's not happening and pretend to yourself that we're wrong and you're right. You're not, and you know it, I know it but you will never admit it.
Coleman & Dubuc (2010), Dubuc (2012) and Dubuc (2016) show declining fertility rates in all ethnic groups and ethnic fertility convergence, although the process is slower in some groups than others.
I don’t think the Tories are racist. (Some Tories are racist. Some Labour supporters are racist.)
We haven’t let in “millions of people who are opposed to our cultural values”. That’s just more scaremongering.
Islam is not a “stone age religion”. It is a more recent religion than Christianity or Hinduism or Buddhism.
COP29, which started badly with plenty of no shows, is now on the verge of a complete breakdown, and that's on top of the Commonwealth hustle and FUBAR last month:
If they are, and I fear they may well be, then our descendants are basically fucked. The high point of international cooperation has been and gone, and the future is one of nationalist insanity and environmental destruction.
Darwin got it all wrong. We're regressing.
Evolution is not teleological. Darwin never said it always means "progress or improvement"
Yes, things can zig zag. I know that.
Anyway, as I now keep saying to all and sundry, Left Populism is coming. A radical economic offer for the struggling classes without the tacky xenophobic nostalgia that defines the right wing version.
It won't get funded by billionaires (for obvious reasons) but that won't matter once it gets rolling. I'm in. ✊️🕺
(please refrain from the very tedious "lol" if you choose to reply, which you shouldn't feel you have to)
I have seen you suggest this a couple of times and I don't really get it. Left populism would be an utter disaster for all of us (see Venezuela for an obvious example).
Populism is the enemy of progress, both of the left and right variety, and I think of you as a progressive. What's going on?
I mean a politics that shifts wealth and opportunity in favour of those who are in most need without corruption or financial recklessness or xenophobic obsession with borders and immigration. Nothing like Venezuela.
What do you honestly think will happen if Britain becomes, say, 30% Muslim? Or 40%? Think about it, and be honest
He can't. He wants to live in his bubble.
We couldn't accept that level and nor could any European country.
I agree, but that means necessarily at some point:
European countries bring in nation- or culture-specific restrictions on Islamic migration, which at the moment is entirely unpalatable to a lot of lefties, or indeed lots of people (and I can see why)
And/or
European countries start restricting displays of Islamic religion as a deterrent. Minarets, burqas, etc. We already see that in France and Switzerland
And/or
European countries start "voluntary deportation" of migrants. Already happening in Sweden
I predict this will all get a lot worse before it gets better
I think restricting and revoking visas and residency for people who don't align to our cultural values is necessary. It's going to upset people but we're allowing the viper into the nest because people are scared to say that vipers aren't good for nests.
Again, to repeat what I have posted many times in the past, we should be looking to Norway for our example here. 300 hours of compulsory language and culture lessons and immigrants don't get to choose where the live. They are assigned a county where they have to settle to avoid the creation of ghettos. It works.
Does it? Even Norway has serious problems. Probably only Denmark is seriously attempting - with success - to address this. Hence the re-election of their social democrat government, which is hard right - to an eye-watering degree by UK standards - on migration, culture, and asylum
Norway has serious problems with right wing biker gangs buring down churches. They don't have any real issues with immigrant populations - certainly nothing to copare with most other European countries.
If you remember this is why I was so convinced - along with you - that the 2011 attacks would turn out to be a right wing nutter rather than a muslim attack.
Norway is mercifully free of terror attacks, and of course Breivik was the worst by far
However of the 13 attacks since the year 2000, 8 or 9 appear to be Muslim/Islamist - ie the majority
COP29, which started badly with plenty of no shows, is now on the verge of a complete breakdown, and that's on top of the Commonwealth hustle and FUBAR last month:
If they are, and I fear they may well be, then our descendants are basically fucked. The high point of international cooperation has been and gone, and the future is one of nationalist insanity and environmental destruction.
Darwin got it all wrong. We're regressing.
Evolution is not teleological. Darwin never said it always means "progress or improvement"
Yes, things can zig zag. I know that.
Anyway, as I now keep saying to all and sundry, Left Populism is coming. A radical economic offer for the struggling classes without the tacky xenophobic nostalgia that defines the right wing version.
It won't get funded by billionaires (for obvious reasons) but that won't matter once it gets rolling. I'm in. ✊️🕺
(please refrain from the very tedious "lol" if you choose to reply, which you shouldn't feel you have to)
I have seen you suggest this a couple of times and I don't really get it. Left populism would be an utter disaster for all of us (see Venezuela for an obvious example).
Populism is the enemy of progress, both of the left and right variety, and I think of you as a progressive. What's going on?
I mean a politics that shifts wealth and opportunity in favour of those who are in most need without corruption or financial recklessness or xenophobic obsession with borders and immigration. Nothing like Venezuela.
What do you honestly think will happen if Britain becomes, say, 30% Muslim? Or 40%? Think about it, and be honest
At 50-60% we could even get Sharia law
Um… who was saying they haven’t seen much evidence of Great Replacement Theory cropping up on PB?
What's the difference between a conspiracy theory and a projection of current trends?
From the 2001 to the 2021 census, Islam went from 2.7% to 5.97%, so that’s an increase of 3.27%, or 0.16% per year. If we project that trend forward, the UK will reach 50% Muslim in 269 more years. That is, in 2290. I think it unlikely any trend would actually continue for over two and a half centuries.
That’s the difference between a conspiracy theory and a projection of current trends.
That's not how it works, the replacement rate for Muslims is much higher than it is for non-Muslims in the UK - they have more kids per family than everyone else so the growth isn't linear. I'd have thought someone with your background would have been able to work that out. You probably did but it wouldn't help your stupid point I guess.
Immigrant populations rapidly move to have fertility rates like the local population. This happens in a few generations. Third generation from a Pakistani or Bangladeshi heritage have a similar number of kids to White British parents, as do third generation from an Indian/Hindu heritage.
How many kids have you had? How many kids did your grandparents or great-grandparents have?
But that's not what's happened for Muslim people in the UK, you want it to be true but it's not. The fertility rate among Muslims is substantially higher than among everyone else. You're going to be sitting there one day in the future while Labour passed a bunch of hateful anti-gay legislation after being pushed into it by the Muslim party and you'll be telling yourself "at least I wasn't racist like those awful Tories".
There's a weird blind spot and accomodation of Islam by the left, it's the major part of the coalition that doesn't fit and eventually they'll form their own party and the tail will wag the dog. If you can't see that then I pity you. The sad part is you're smart enough that you probably do see it and realise that it's a path we're currently heading down but you're so far gone down the "mustn't be perceived as racist" road that there's no coming back. You can't repudiate it without admitting that maybe, just maybe, allowing millions of people who are opposed to our cultural values and have very strong beliefs in a stone age religion with backwards ideas was a poor idea.
Like the rest of the establishment you might get a scintilla of realisation from time to time but the fear of what you've allowed to happen will mean you will push that realisation aside and continue as if it's not happening and pretend to yourself that we're wrong and you're right. You're not, and you know it, I know it but you will never admit it.
Don't group the left into one homogeneous group. If you're concerned about "cancel culture", it's much more pernicious on this side of the spectrum because if you're campaigning on a particular issue (for me, various environmental stuff and active travel), you often get co-opted into other views which you don't actually hold. It's very awkward.
I basically agree with with what a lot of you guys are saying, but I'm naturally suspicious of your motivations. I really need a rock-solid, and very brave, lefty to put their head above the parapet.
I also note that rise in extremist views among young Muslim men mirrors that of white menelsewhere in Europe. Perhaps this the same phenomenon, and it's ultimately not based on religion.
My motivations are very simply and I've been open about them for a long time. Islam isn't compatible with western culture, some Muslims are and are secular but they are not the majority. In every major piece of research a huge majority of Muslims across western countries believe that violence is justified against people who blaspheme against Islam. That to me means Islam isn't compatible with our core value of free expression of ideas, you can't have free expression if people are afraid that they'll be stabbed if they speak out against Islamic ideas and that to me is a step too far.
I understand why you have scepticism but for me Islam is a religion that is never going to have a "reformation", the idea is antithetical to the religion and in the UK as you note, younger generations are more conservative than their parents and grandparents who lived under Islamic rule and escaped from it, but their kids have been fed a diet of poison in foreign funded mosques and on social media so they've become more militant and less likely to identify with British culture and more likely to hate those values and the people who follow them.
COP29, which started badly with plenty of no shows, is now on the verge of a complete breakdown, and that's on top of the Commonwealth hustle and FUBAR last month:
If they are, and I fear they may well be, then our descendants are basically fucked. The high point of international cooperation has been and gone, and the future is one of nationalist insanity and environmental destruction.
Darwin got it all wrong. We're regressing.
Evolution is not teleological. Darwin never said it always means "progress or improvement"
Yes, things can zig zag. I know that.
Anyway, as I now keep saying to all and sundry, Left Populism is coming. A radical economic offer for the struggling classes without the tacky xenophobic nostalgia that defines the right wing version.
It won't get funded by billionaires (for obvious reasons) but that won't matter once it gets rolling. I'm in. ✊️🕺
(please refrain from the very tedious "lol" if you choose to reply, which you shouldn't feel you have to)
I have seen you suggest this a couple of times and I don't really get it. Left populism would be an utter disaster for all of us (see Venezuela for an obvious example).
Populism is the enemy of progress, both of the left and right variety, and I think of you as a progressive. What's going on?
I mean a politics that shifts wealth and opportunity in favour of those who are in most need without corruption or financial recklessness or xenophobic obsession with borders and immigration. Nothing like Venezuela.
What do you honestly think will happen if Britain becomes, say, 30% Muslim? Or 40%? Think about it, and be honest
He can't. He wants to live in his bubble.
We couldn't accept that level and nor could any European country.
I agree, but that means necessarily at some point:
European countries bring in nation- or culture-specific restrictions on Islamic migration, which at the moment is entirely unpalatable to a lot of lefties, or indeed lots of people (and I can see why)
And/or
European countries start restricting displays of Islamic religion as a deterrent. Minarets, burqas, etc. We already see that in France and Switzerland
And/or
European countries start "voluntary deportation" of migrants. Already happening in Sweden
I predict this will all get a lot worse before it gets better
I think restricting and revoking visas and residency for people who don't align to our cultural values is necessary. It's going to upset people but we're allowing the viper into the nest because people are scared to say that vipers aren't good for nests.
Again, to repeat what I have posted many times in the past, we should be looking to Norway for our example here. 300 hours of compulsory language and culture lessons and immigrants don't get to choose where the live. They are assigned a county where they have to settle to avoid the creation of ghettos. It works.
Does it? Even Norway has serious problems. Probably only Denmark is seriously attempting - with success - to address this. Hence the re-election of their social democrat government, which is hard right - to an eye-watering degree by UK standards - on migration, culture, and asylum
Norway has serious problems with right wing biker gangs buring down churches. They don't have any real issues with immigrant populations - certainly nothing to copare with most other European countries.
If you remember this is why I was so convinced - along with you - that the 2011 attacks would turn out to be a right wing nutter rather than a muslim attack.
Norway is mercifully free of terror attacks, and of course Breivik was the worst by far
However of the 13 attacks since the year 2000, 8 or 9 appear to be Muslim/Islamist - ie the majority
COP29, which started badly with plenty of no shows, is now on the verge of a complete breakdown, and that's on top of the Commonwealth hustle and FUBAR last month:
If they are, and I fear they may well be, then our descendants are basically fucked. The high point of international cooperation has been and gone, and the future is one of nationalist insanity and environmental destruction.
Darwin got it all wrong. We're regressing.
Evolution is not teleological. Darwin never said it always means "progress or improvement"
Yes, things can zig zag. I know that.
Anyway, as I now keep saying to all and sundry, Left Populism is coming. A radical economic offer for the struggling classes without the tacky xenophobic nostalgia that defines the right wing version.
It won't get funded by billionaires (for obvious reasons) but that won't matter once it gets rolling. I'm in. ✊️🕺
(please refrain from the very tedious "lol" if you choose to reply, which you shouldn't feel you have to)
I have seen you suggest this a couple of times and I don't really get it. Left populism would be an utter disaster for all of us (see Venezuela for an obvious example).
Populism is the enemy of progress, both of the left and right variety, and I think of you as a progressive. What's going on?
I mean a politics that shifts wealth and opportunity in favour of those who are in most need without corruption or financial recklessness or xenophobic obsession with borders and immigration. Nothing like Venezuela.
What do you honestly think will happen if Britain becomes, say, 30% Muslim? Or 40%? Think about it, and be honest
At 50-60% we could even get Sharia law
Um… who was saying they haven’t seen much evidence of Great Replacement Theory cropping up on PB?
What's the difference between a conspiracy theory and a projection of current trends?
From the 2001 to the 2021 census, Islam went from 2.7% to 5.97%, so that’s an increase of 3.27%, or 0.16% per year. If we project that trend forward, the UK will reach 50% Muslim in 269 more years. That is, in 2290. I think it unlikely any trend would actually continue for over two and a half centuries.
That’s the difference between a conspiracy theory and a projection of current trends.
That's not how it works, the replacement rate for Muslims is much higher than it is for non-Muslims in the UK - they have more kids per family than everyone else so the growth isn't linear. I'd have thought someone with your background would have been able to work that out. You probably did but it wouldn't help your stupid point I guess.
Immigrant populations rapidly move to have fertility rates like the local population. This happens in a few generations. Third generation from a Pakistani or Bangladeshi heritage have a similar number of kids to White British parents, as do third generation from an Indian/Hindu heritage.
How many kids have you had? How many kids did your grandparents or great-grandparents have?
But that's not what's happened for Muslim people in the UK, you want it to be true but it's not. The fertility rate among Muslims is substantially higher than among everyone else. You're going to be sitting there one day in the future while Labour passed a bunch of hateful anti-gay legislation after being pushed into it by the Muslim party and you'll be telling yourself "at least I wasn't racist like those awful Tories".
There's a weird blind spot and accomodation of Islam by the left, it's the major part of the coalition that doesn't fit and eventually they'll form their own party and the tail will wag the dog. If you can't see that then I pity you. The sad part is you're smart enough that you probably do see it and realise that it's a path we're currently heading down but you're so far gone down the "mustn't be perceived as racist" road that there's no coming back. You can't repudiate it without admitting that maybe, just maybe, allowing millions of people who are opposed to our cultural values and have very strong beliefs in a stone age religion with backwards ideas was a poor idea.
Like the rest of the establishment you might get a scintilla of realisation from time to time but the fear of what you've allowed to happen will mean you will push that realisation aside and continue as if it's not happening and pretend to yourself that we're wrong and you're right. You're not, and you know it, I know it but you will never admit it.
Coleman & Dubuc (2010), Dubuc (2012) and Dubuc (2016) show declining fertility rates in all ethnic groups and ethnic fertility convergence, although the process is slower in some groups than others.
I don’t think the Tories are racist. (Some Tories are racist. Some Labour supporters are racist.)
We haven’t let in “millions of people who are opposed to our cultural values”. That’s just more scaremongering.
Islam is not a “stone age religion”. It is a more recent religion than Christianity or Hinduism or Buddhism.
"Islam is not a “stone age religion”. It is a more recent religion than Christianity or Hinduism or Buddhism."
I humbly submit that this deliciously insane statement be preserved in amber in the *PB Museum of Insane Quotations by Desperate Lefties*; it should stand alongside @Roger's response to the Northern Rock bank run in 2007, that "this will all be forgotten by Friday"
COP29, which started badly with plenty of no shows, is now on the verge of a complete breakdown, and that's on top of the Commonwealth hustle and FUBAR last month:
If they are, and I fear they may well be, then our descendants are basically fucked. The high point of international cooperation has been and gone, and the future is one of nationalist insanity and environmental destruction.
Darwin got it all wrong. We're regressing.
Evolution is not teleological. Darwin never said it always means "progress or improvement"
Yes, things can zig zag. I know that.
Anyway, as I now keep saying to all and sundry, Left Populism is coming. A radical economic offer for the struggling classes without the tacky xenophobic nostalgia that defines the right wing version.
It won't get funded by billionaires (for obvious reasons) but that won't matter once it gets rolling. I'm in. ✊️🕺
(please refrain from the very tedious "lol" if you choose to reply, which you shouldn't feel you have to)
I have seen you suggest this a couple of times and I don't really get it. Left populism would be an utter disaster for all of us (see Venezuela for an obvious example).
Populism is the enemy of progress, both of the left and right variety, and I think of you as a progressive. What's going on?
I mean a politics that shifts wealth and opportunity in favour of those who are in most need without corruption or financial recklessness or xenophobic obsession with borders and immigration. Nothing like Venezuela.
What do you honestly think will happen if Britain becomes, say, 30% Muslim? Or 40%? Think about it, and be honest
At 50-60% we could even get Sharia law
I'm not aware of any large country where that has happened in modern times, though there are certain small examples. There are majoritarian Muslim smaller countries in Europe - Albania, B&H, Kosovo. I'm not sure of the status of Sharia Law in those.
Same sex marriage and civil unions are certainly illegal in Albania, same sex marriage is not legal in Kosovo or Bosnia either so even if not full Sharia LGBT rights would likely regress
LGBT rights are also limited in Serbia, Bulgaria and Romania, which are all largely Christian, so is it Islam in Albania, Bosnia and Kosovo, or something about those countries being in the Balkans?
Slovenia is in the Balkans and has same sex marriage and Croatia has civil unions. No Muslim majority nation has same sex marriage.
Women are also discouraged from working with men in the same workplaces in Islam
Slovenia and Croatia are more western looking. I referred you already to Serbia, Bulgaria and Romania. You can also add North Macedonia. Moldova, Ukraine and eastwards also have no recognition of same sex marriages. Rights are limited in Slovakia, Poland and Lithuania. The dividing line in Europe is clearly not Muslim/non-Muslim.
Not a single Muslim majority nation on earth has same sex marriage, same sex unions or a female head of state or government.
The dividing line globally is clearly Muslim/non Muslim
Not a single Hindu, Jewish, Shinto or Daoist majority country has same sex marriage. Same sex marriage is largely confined to Western Europe and the Americas, with a few exceptions.
COP29, which started badly with plenty of no shows, is now on the verge of a complete breakdown, and that's on top of the Commonwealth hustle and FUBAR last month:
If they are, and I fear they may well be, then our descendants are basically fucked. The high point of international cooperation has been and gone, and the future is one of nationalist insanity and environmental destruction.
Darwin got it all wrong. We're regressing.
Evolution is not teleological. Darwin never said it always means "progress or improvement"
Yes, things can zig zag. I know that.
Anyway, as I now keep saying to all and sundry, Left Populism is coming. A radical economic offer for the struggling classes without the tacky xenophobic nostalgia that defines the right wing version.
It won't get funded by billionaires (for obvious reasons) but that won't matter once it gets rolling. I'm in. ✊️🕺
(please refrain from the very tedious "lol" if you choose to reply, which you shouldn't feel you have to)
I have seen you suggest this a couple of times and I don't really get it. Left populism would be an utter disaster for all of us (see Venezuela for an obvious example).
Populism is the enemy of progress, both of the left and right variety, and I think of you as a progressive. What's going on?
I mean a politics that shifts wealth and opportunity in favour of those who are in most need without corruption or financial recklessness or xenophobic obsession with borders and immigration. Nothing like Venezuela.
What do you honestly think will happen if Britain becomes, say, 30% Muslim? Or 40%? Think about it, and be honest
At 50-60% we could even get Sharia law
Um… who was saying they haven’t seen much evidence of Great Replacement Theory cropping up on PB?
What's the difference between a conspiracy theory and a projection of current trends?
From the 2001 to the 2021 census, Islam went from 2.7% to 5.97%, so that’s an increase of 3.27%, or 0.16% per year. If we project that trend forward, the UK will reach 50% Muslim in 269 more years. That is, in 2290. I think it unlikely any trend would actually continue for over two and a half centuries.
That’s the difference between a conspiracy theory and a projection of current trends.
That's not how it works, the replacement rate for Muslims is much higher than it is for non-Muslims in the UK - they have more kids per family than everyone else so the growth isn't linear. I'd have thought someone with your background would have been able to work that out. You probably did but it wouldn't help your stupid point I guess.
Immigrant populations rapidly move to have fertility rates like the local population. This happens in a few generations. Third generation from a Pakistani or Bangladeshi heritage have a similar number of kids to White British parents, as do third generation from an Indian/Hindu heritage.
How many kids have you had? How many kids did your grandparents or great-grandparents have?
But that's not what's happened for Muslim people in the UK, you want it to be true but it's not. The fertility rate among Muslims is substantially higher than among everyone else. You're going to be sitting there one day in the future while Labour passed a bunch of hateful anti-gay legislation after being pushed into it by the Muslim party and you'll be telling yourself "at least I wasn't racist like those awful Tories".
There's a weird blind spot and accomodation of Islam by the left, it's the major part of the coalition that doesn't fit and eventually they'll form their own party and the tail will wag the dog. If you can't see that then I pity you. The sad part is you're smart enough that you probably do see it and realise that it's a path we're currently heading down but you're so far gone down the "mustn't be perceived as racist" road that there's no coming back. You can't repudiate it without admitting that maybe, just maybe, allowing millions of people who are opposed to our cultural values and have very strong beliefs in a stone age religion with backwards ideas was a poor idea.
Like the rest of the establishment you might get a scintilla of realisation from time to time but the fear of what you've allowed to happen will mean you will push that realisation aside and continue as if it's not happening and pretend to yourself that we're wrong and you're right. You're not, and you know it, I know it but you will never admit it.
Don't group the left into one homogeneous group. If you're concerned about "cancel culture", it's much more pernicious on this side of the spectrum because if you're campaigning on a particular issue (for me, various environmental stuff and active travel), you often get co-opted into other views which you don't actually hold. It's very awkward.
I basically agree with with what a lot of you guys are saying, but I'm naturally suspicious of your motivations. I really need a rock-solid, and very brave, lefty to put their head above the parapet.
I also note that rise in extremist views among young Muslim men mirrors that of white menelsewhere in Europe. Perhaps this the same phenomenon, and it's ultimately not based on religion.
My motivations are very simply and I've been open about them for a long time. Islam isn't compatible with western culture, some Muslims are and are secular but they are not the majority. In every major piece of research a huge majority of Muslims across western countries believe that violence is justified against people who blaspheme against Islam. That to me means Islam isn't compatible with our core value of free expression of ideas, you can't have free expression if people are afraid that they'll be stabbed if they speak out against Islamic ideas and that to me is a step too far.
I understand why you have scepticism but for me Islam is a religion that is never going to have a "reformation", the idea is antithetical to the religion and in the UK as you note, younger generations are more conservative than their parents and grandparents who lived under Islamic rule and escaped from it, but their kids have been fed a diet of poison in foreign funded mosques and on social media so they've become more militant and less likely to identify with British culture and more likely to hate those values and the people who follow them.
I was listening to an old Rest is History episode yesterday and they skated over something involving Islam, being quite open that they were worried about the response. Before rightly piling in on some of the a-historical stuff in other religions.
COP29, which started badly with plenty of no shows, is now on the verge of a complete breakdown, and that's on top of the Commonwealth hustle and FUBAR last month:
If they are, and I fear they may well be, then our descendants are basically fucked. The high point of international cooperation has been and gone, and the future is one of nationalist insanity and environmental destruction.
Darwin got it all wrong. We're regressing.
Evolution is not teleological. Darwin never said it always means "progress or improvement"
Yes, things can zig zag. I know that.
Anyway, as I now keep saying to all and sundry, Left Populism is coming. A radical economic offer for the struggling classes without the tacky xenophobic nostalgia that defines the right wing version.
It won't get funded by billionaires (for obvious reasons) but that won't matter once it gets rolling. I'm in. ✊️🕺
(please refrain from the very tedious "lol" if you choose to reply, which you shouldn't feel you have to)
I have seen you suggest this a couple of times and I don't really get it. Left populism would be an utter disaster for all of us (see Venezuela for an obvious example).
Populism is the enemy of progress, both of the left and right variety, and I think of you as a progressive. What's going on?
I mean a politics that shifts wealth and opportunity in favour of those who are in most need without corruption or financial recklessness or xenophobic obsession with borders and immigration. Nothing like Venezuela.
What do you honestly think will happen if Britain becomes, say, 30% Muslim? Or 40%? Think about it, and be honest
At 50-60% we could even get Sharia law
I'm not aware of any large country where that has happened in modern times, though there are certain small examples. There are majoritarian Muslim smaller countries in Europe - Albania, B&H, Kosovo. I'm not sure of the status of Sharia Law in those.
Same sex marriage and civil unions are certainly illegal in Albania, same sex marriage is not legal in Kosovo or Bosnia either so even if not full Sharia LGBT rights would likely regress
LGBT rights are also limited in Serbia, Bulgaria and Romania, which are all largely Christian, so is it Islam in Albania, Bosnia and Kosovo, or something about those countries being in the Balkans?
Slovenia is in the Balkans and has same sex marriage and Croatia has civil unions. No Muslim majority nation has same sex marriage.
Women are also discouraged from working with men in the same workplaces in Islam
Slovenia and Croatia are more western looking. I referred you already to Serbia, Bulgaria and Romania. You can also add North Macedonia. Moldova, Ukraine and eastwards also have no recognition of same sex marriages. Rights are limited in Slovakia, Poland and Lithuania. The dividing line in Europe is clearly not Muslim/non-Muslim.
Not a single Muslim majority nation on earth has same sex marriage, same sex unions or a female head of state or government.
The dividing line globally is clearly Muslim/non Muslim
Not a single Hindu, Jewish, Shinto or Daoist majority country has same sex marriage. Same sex marriage is largely confined to Western Europe and the Americas, with a few exceptions.
What in the name of holy Christological fuck is a "Shinto-majority country"?
COP29, which started badly with plenty of no shows, is now on the verge of a complete breakdown, and that's on top of the Commonwealth hustle and FUBAR last month:
If they are, and I fear they may well be, then our descendants are basically fucked. The high point of international cooperation has been and gone, and the future is one of nationalist insanity and environmental destruction.
Darwin got it all wrong. We're regressing.
Evolution is not teleological. Darwin never said it always means "progress or improvement"
Yes, things can zig zag. I know that.
Anyway, as I now keep saying to all and sundry, Left Populism is coming. A radical economic offer for the struggling classes without the tacky xenophobic nostalgia that defines the right wing version.
It won't get funded by billionaires (for obvious reasons) but that won't matter once it gets rolling. I'm in. ✊️🕺
(please refrain from the very tedious "lol" if you choose to reply, which you shouldn't feel you have to)
I have seen you suggest this a couple of times and I don't really get it. Left populism would be an utter disaster for all of us (see Venezuela for an obvious example).
Populism is the enemy of progress, both of the left and right variety, and I think of you as a progressive. What's going on?
I mean a politics that shifts wealth and opportunity in favour of those who are in most need without corruption or financial recklessness or xenophobic obsession with borders and immigration. Nothing like Venezuela.
What do you honestly think will happen if Britain becomes, say, 30% Muslim? Or 40%? Think about it, and be honest
At 50-60% we could even get Sharia law
I'm not aware of any large country where that has happened in modern times, though there are certain small examples. There are majoritarian Muslim smaller countries in Europe - Albania, B&H, Kosovo. I'm not sure of the status of Sharia Law in those.
Same sex marriage and civil unions are certainly illegal in Albania, same sex marriage is not legal in Kosovo or Bosnia either so even if not full Sharia LGBT rights would likely regress
LGBT rights are also limited in Serbia, Bulgaria and Romania, which are all largely Christian, so is it Islam in Albania, Bosnia and Kosovo, or something about those countries being in the Balkans?
Slovenia is in the Balkans and has same sex marriage and Croatia has civil unions. No Muslim majority nation has same sex marriage.
Women are also discouraged from working with men in the same workplaces in Islam
Slovenia and Croatia are more western looking. I referred you already to Serbia, Bulgaria and Romania. You can also add North Macedonia. Moldova, Ukraine and eastwards also have no recognition of same sex marriages. Rights are limited in Slovakia, Poland and Lithuania. The dividing line in Europe is clearly not Muslim/non-Muslim.
Not a single Muslim majority nation on earth has same sex marriage, same sex unions or a female head of state or government.
The dividing line globally is clearly Muslim/non Muslim
Not a single Hindu, Jewish, Shinto or Daoist majority country has same sex marriage. Same sex marriage is largely confined to Western Europe and the Americas, with a few exceptions.
What in the name of holy Christological fuck is a "Shinto-majority country"?
The nonsense "non-racist" way of saying East Asian countries.
COP29, which started badly with plenty of no shows, is now on the verge of a complete breakdown, and that's on top of the Commonwealth hustle and FUBAR last month:
If they are, and I fear they may well be, then our descendants are basically fucked. The high point of international cooperation has been and gone, and the future is one of nationalist insanity and environmental destruction.
Darwin got it all wrong. We're regressing.
Evolution is not teleological. Darwin never said it always means "progress or improvement"
Yes, things can zig zag. I know that.
Anyway, as I now keep saying to all and sundry, Left Populism is coming. A radical economic offer for the struggling classes without the tacky xenophobic nostalgia that defines the right wing version.
It won't get funded by billionaires (for obvious reasons) but that won't matter once it gets rolling. I'm in. ✊️🕺
(please refrain from the very tedious "lol" if you choose to reply, which you shouldn't feel you have to)
I have seen you suggest this a couple of times and I don't really get it. Left populism would be an utter disaster for all of us (see Venezuela for an obvious example).
Populism is the enemy of progress, both of the left and right variety, and I think of you as a progressive. What's going on?
I mean a politics that shifts wealth and opportunity in favour of those who are in most need without corruption or financial recklessness or xenophobic obsession with borders and immigration. Nothing like Venezuela.
What do you honestly think will happen if Britain becomes, say, 30% Muslim? Or 40%? Think about it, and be honest
At 50-60% we could even get Sharia law
Um… who was saying they haven’t seen much evidence of Great Replacement Theory cropping up on PB?
What's the difference between a conspiracy theory and a projection of current trends?
From the 2001 to the 2021 census, Islam went from 2.7% to 5.97%, so that’s an increase of 3.27%, or 0.16% per year. If we project that trend forward, the UK will reach 50% Muslim in 269 more years. That is, in 2290. I think it unlikely any trend would actually continue for over two and a half centuries.
That’s the difference between a conspiracy theory and a projection of current trends.
That's not how it works, the replacement rate for Muslims is much higher than it is for non-Muslims in the UK - they have more kids per family than everyone else so the growth isn't linear. I'd have thought someone with your background would have been able to work that out. You probably did but it wouldn't help your stupid point I guess.
Immigrant populations rapidly move to have fertility rates like the local population. This happens in a few generations. Third generation from a Pakistani or Bangladeshi heritage have a similar number of kids to White British parents, as do third generation from an Indian/Hindu heritage.
How many kids have you had? How many kids did your grandparents or great-grandparents have?
But that's not what's happened for Muslim people in the UK, you want it to be true but it's not. The fertility rate among Muslims is substantially higher than among everyone else. You're going to be sitting there one day in the future while Labour passed a bunch of hateful anti-gay legislation after being pushed into it by the Muslim party and you'll be telling yourself "at least I wasn't racist like those awful Tories".
There's a weird blind spot and accomodation of Islam by the left, it's the major part of the coalition that doesn't fit and eventually they'll form their own party and the tail will wag the dog. If you can't see that then I pity you. The sad part is you're smart enough that you probably do see it and realise that it's a path we're currently heading down but you're so far gone down the "mustn't be perceived as racist" road that there's no coming back. You can't repudiate it without admitting that maybe, just maybe, allowing millions of people who are opposed to our cultural values and have very strong beliefs in a stone age religion with backwards ideas was a poor idea.
Like the rest of the establishment you might get a scintilla of realisation from time to time but the fear of what you've allowed to happen will mean you will push that realisation aside and continue as if it's not happening and pretend to yourself that we're wrong and you're right. You're not, and you know it, I know it but you will never admit it.
Don't group the left into one homogeneous group. If you're concerned about "cancel culture", it's much more pernicious on this side of the spectrum because if you're campaigning on a particular issue (for me, various environmental stuff and active travel), you often get co-opted into other views which you don't actually hold. It's very awkward.
I basically agree with with what a lot of you guys are saying, but I'm naturally suspicious of your motivations. I really need a rock-solid, and very brave, lefty to put their head above the parapet.
I also note that rise in extremist views among young Muslim men mirrors that of white menelsewhere in Europe. Perhaps this the same phenomenon, and it's ultimately not based on religion.
My motivations are very simply and I've been open about them for a long time. Islam isn't compatible with western culture, some Muslims are and are secular but they are not the majority. In every major piece of research a huge majority of Muslims across western countries believe that violence is justified against people who blaspheme against Islam. That to me means Islam isn't compatible with our core value of free expression of ideas, you can't have free expression if people are afraid that they'll be stabbed if they speak out against Islamic ideas and that to me is a step too far.
I understand why you have scepticism but for me Islam is a religion that is never going to have a "reformation", the idea is antithetical to the religion and in the UK as you note, younger generations are more conservative than their parents and grandparents who lived under Islamic rule and escaped from it, but their kids have been fed a diet of poison in foreign funded mosques and on social media so they've become more militant and less likely to identify with British culture and more likely to hate those values and the people who follow them.
I was listening to an old Rest is History episode yesterday and they skated over something involving Islam, being quite open that they were worried about the response. Before rightly piling in on some of the a-historical stuff in other religions.
Not good.
I know Tom Holland. Very sound chap. He is aware of the inadequacy of all this
COP29, which started badly with plenty of no shows, is now on the verge of a complete breakdown, and that's on top of the Commonwealth hustle and FUBAR last month:
If they are, and I fear they may well be, then our descendants are basically fucked. The high point of international cooperation has been and gone, and the future is one of nationalist insanity and environmental destruction.
Darwin got it all wrong. We're regressing.
Evolution is not teleological. Darwin never said it always means "progress or improvement"
Yes, things can zig zag. I know that.
Anyway, as I now keep saying to all and sundry, Left Populism is coming. A radical economic offer for the struggling classes without the tacky xenophobic nostalgia that defines the right wing version.
It won't get funded by billionaires (for obvious reasons) but that won't matter once it gets rolling. I'm in. ✊️🕺
(please refrain from the very tedious "lol" if you choose to reply, which you shouldn't feel you have to)
I have seen you suggest this a couple of times and I don't really get it. Left populism would be an utter disaster for all of us (see Venezuela for an obvious example).
Populism is the enemy of progress, both of the left and right variety, and I think of you as a progressive. What's going on?
I mean a politics that shifts wealth and opportunity in favour of those who are in most need without corruption or financial recklessness or xenophobic obsession with borders and immigration. Nothing like Venezuela.
What do you honestly think will happen if Britain becomes, say, 30% Muslim? Or 40%? Think about it, and be honest
He can't. He wants to live in his bubble.
We couldn't accept that level and nor could any European country.
I agree, but that means necessarily at some point:
European countries bring in nation- or culture-specific restrictions on Islamic migration, which at the moment is entirely unpalatable to a lot of lefties, or indeed lots of people (and I can see why)
And/or
European countries start restricting displays of Islamic religion as a deterrent. Minarets, burqas, etc. We already see that in France and Switzerland
And/or
European countries start "voluntary deportation" of migrants. Already happening in Sweden
I predict this will all get a lot worse before it gets better
I think restricting and revoking visas and residency for people who don't align to our cultural values is necessary. It's going to upset people but we're allowing the viper into the nest because people are scared to say that vipers aren't good for nests.
Again, to repeat what I have posted many times in the past, we should be looking to Norway for our example here. 300 hours of compulsory language and culture lessons and immigrants don't get to choose where the live. They are assigned a county where they have to settle to avoid the creation of ghettos. It works.
Does it? Even Norway has serious problems. Probably only Denmark is seriously attempting - with success - to address this. Hence the re-election of their social democrat government, which is hard right - to an eye-watering degree by UK standards - on migration, culture, and asylum
Norway has serious problems with right wing biker gangs buring down churches. They don't have any real issues with immigrant populations - certainly nothing to copare with most other European countries.
If you remember this is why I was so convinced - along with you - that the 2011 attacks would turn out to be a right wing nutter rather than a muslim attack.
Norway is mercifully free of terror attacks, and of course Breivik was the worst by far
However of the 13 attacks since the year 2000, 8 or 9 appear to be Muslim/Islamist - ie the majority
BTW; how many deaths were there in these 13 attacks, just to put things in context for us.
Please, take your time.
Suggesting muslims are not over represented in terror/terrorist attacks would be very brave of you.
In my lifetime, by far the largest number of terrorist attacks in the UK were committed by Christians from Northern Ireland. If we look across Europe, then again the numbers are dominated by Christians, from Northern Ireland and the Basque Country.
COP29, which started badly with plenty of no shows, is now on the verge of a complete breakdown, and that's on top of the Commonwealth hustle and FUBAR last month:
If they are, and I fear they may well be, then our descendants are basically fucked. The high point of international cooperation has been and gone, and the future is one of nationalist insanity and environmental destruction.
Darwin got it all wrong. We're regressing.
Evolution is not teleological. Darwin never said it always means "progress or improvement"
Yes, things can zig zag. I know that.
Anyway, as I now keep saying to all and sundry, Left Populism is coming. A radical economic offer for the struggling classes without the tacky xenophobic nostalgia that defines the right wing version.
It won't get funded by billionaires (for obvious reasons) but that won't matter once it gets rolling. I'm in. ✊️🕺
(please refrain from the very tedious "lol" if you choose to reply, which you shouldn't feel you have to)
I have seen you suggest this a couple of times and I don't really get it. Left populism would be an utter disaster for all of us (see Venezuela for an obvious example).
Populism is the enemy of progress, both of the left and right variety, and I think of you as a progressive. What's going on?
I mean a politics that shifts wealth and opportunity in favour of those who are in most need without corruption or financial recklessness or xenophobic obsession with borders and immigration. Nothing like Venezuela.
What do you honestly think will happen if Britain becomes, say, 30% Muslim? Or 40%? Think about it, and be honest
At 50-60% we could even get Sharia law
I'm not aware of any large country where that has happened in modern times, though there are certain small examples. There are majoritarian Muslim smaller countries in Europe - Albania, B&H, Kosovo. I'm not sure of the status of Sharia Law in those.
Same sex marriage and civil unions are certainly illegal in Albania, same sex marriage is not legal in Kosovo or Bosnia either so even if not full Sharia LGBT rights would likely regress
LGBT rights are also limited in Serbia, Bulgaria and Romania, which are all largely Christian, so is it Islam in Albania, Bosnia and Kosovo, or something about those countries being in the Balkans?
Slovenia is in the Balkans and has same sex marriage and Croatia has civil unions. No Muslim majority nation has same sex marriage.
Women are also discouraged from working with men in the same workplaces in Islam
Slovenia and Croatia are more western looking. I referred you already to Serbia, Bulgaria and Romania. You can also add North Macedonia. Moldova, Ukraine and eastwards also have no recognition of same sex marriages. Rights are limited in Slovakia, Poland and Lithuania. The dividing line in Europe is clearly not Muslim/non-Muslim.
Not a single Muslim majority nation on earth has same sex marriage, same sex unions or a female head of state or government.
The dividing line globally is clearly Muslim/non Muslim
Not a single Hindu, Jewish, Shinto or Daoist majority country has same sex marriage. Same sex marriage is largely confined to Western Europe and the Americas, with a few exceptions.
Taiwan has same sex marriage now. Israel has cohabitation rights for same sex couples. Even several Indian states give same sex couples cohabitation rights. India and Israel have also had female PMs and India a female head of state
These, together with the fact the US says it doesn't know what they are, sound very similar to what has been seen over U.S. bases over the last year. I don't want to disrupt people's peaceful Sarurday night too much, buy they not actually be drones, or anything that we can currently understand.
COP29, which started badly with plenty of no shows, is now on the verge of a complete breakdown, and that's on top of the Commonwealth hustle and FUBAR last month:
If they are, and I fear they may well be, then our descendants are basically fucked. The high point of international cooperation has been and gone, and the future is one of nationalist insanity and environmental destruction.
Darwin got it all wrong. We're regressing.
Evolution is not teleological. Darwin never said it always means "progress or improvement"
Yes, things can zig zag. I know that.
Anyway, as I now keep saying to all and sundry, Left Populism is coming. A radical economic offer for the struggling classes without the tacky xenophobic nostalgia that defines the right wing version.
It won't get funded by billionaires (for obvious reasons) but that won't matter once it gets rolling. I'm in. ✊️🕺
(please refrain from the very tedious "lol" if you choose to reply, which you shouldn't feel you have to)
I have seen you suggest this a couple of times and I don't really get it. Left populism would be an utter disaster for all of us (see Venezuela for an obvious example).
Populism is the enemy of progress, both of the left and right variety, and I think of you as a progressive. What's going on?
I mean a politics that shifts wealth and opportunity in favour of those who are in most need without corruption or financial recklessness or xenophobic obsession with borders and immigration. Nothing like Venezuela.
What do you honestly think will happen if Britain becomes, say, 30% Muslim? Or 40%? Think about it, and be honest
At 50-60% we could even get Sharia law
I'm not aware of any large country where that has happened in modern times, though there are certain small examples. There are majoritarian Muslim smaller countries in Europe - Albania, B&H, Kosovo. I'm not sure of the status of Sharia Law in those.
Same sex marriage and civil unions are certainly illegal in Albania, same sex marriage is not legal in Kosovo or Bosnia either so even if not full Sharia LGBT rights would likely regress
LGBT rights are also limited in Serbia, Bulgaria and Romania, which are all largely Christian, so is it Islam in Albania, Bosnia and Kosovo, or something about those countries being in the Balkans?
Slovenia is in the Balkans and has same sex marriage and Croatia has civil unions. No Muslim majority nation has same sex marriage.
Women are also discouraged from working with men in the same workplaces in Islam
Slovenia and Croatia are more western looking. I referred you already to Serbia, Bulgaria and Romania. You can also add North Macedonia. Moldova, Ukraine and eastwards also have no recognition of same sex marriages. Rights are limited in Slovakia, Poland and Lithuania. The dividing line in Europe is clearly not Muslim/non-Muslim.
Not a single Muslim majority nation on earth has same sex marriage, same sex unions or a female head of state or government.
The dividing line globally is clearly Muslim/non Muslim
Not a single Hindu, Jewish, Shinto or Daoist majority country has same sex marriage. Same sex marriage is largely confined to Western Europe and the Americas, with a few exceptions.
Same sex marriage is a slightly odd benchmark to use as to whether Muslims will be able to integrate into western societies. However it's pretty obvious that there has been far more difficulty in integrating/assimilating people from that religion into UK than from most others. Claiming otherwise is a very silly hill for people on the left to die on.
COP29, which started badly with plenty of no shows, is now on the verge of a complete breakdown, and that's on top of the Commonwealth hustle and FUBAR last month:
If they are, and I fear they may well be, then our descendants are basically fucked. The high point of international cooperation has been and gone, and the future is one of nationalist insanity and environmental destruction.
Darwin got it all wrong. We're regressing.
Evolution is not teleological. Darwin never said it always means "progress or improvement"
Yes, things can zig zag. I know that.
Anyway, as I now keep saying to all and sundry, Left Populism is coming. A radical economic offer for the struggling classes without the tacky xenophobic nostalgia that defines the right wing version.
It won't get funded by billionaires (for obvious reasons) but that won't matter once it gets rolling. I'm in. ✊️🕺
(please refrain from the very tedious "lol" if you choose to reply, which you shouldn't feel you have to)
I have seen you suggest this a couple of times and I don't really get it. Left populism would be an utter disaster for all of us (see Venezuela for an obvious example).
Populism is the enemy of progress, both of the left and right variety, and I think of you as a progressive. What's going on?
I mean a politics that shifts wealth and opportunity in favour of those who are in most need without corruption or financial recklessness or xenophobic obsession with borders and immigration. Nothing like Venezuela.
What do you honestly think will happen if Britain becomes, say, 30% Muslim? Or 40%? Think about it, and be honest
At 50-60% we could even get Sharia law
I'm not aware of any large country where that has happened in modern times, though there are certain small examples. There are majoritarian Muslim smaller countries in Europe - Albania, B&H, Kosovo. I'm not sure of the status of Sharia Law in those.
Same sex marriage and civil unions are certainly illegal in Albania, same sex marriage is not legal in Kosovo or Bosnia either so even if not full Sharia LGBT rights would likely regress
LGBT rights are also limited in Serbia, Bulgaria and Romania, which are all largely Christian, so is it Islam in Albania, Bosnia and Kosovo, or something about those countries being in the Balkans?
Slovenia is in the Balkans and has same sex marriage and Croatia has civil unions. No Muslim majority nation has same sex marriage.
Women are also discouraged from working with men in the same workplaces in Islam
Slovenia and Croatia are more western looking. I referred you already to Serbia, Bulgaria and Romania. You can also add North Macedonia. Moldova, Ukraine and eastwards also have no recognition of same sex marriages. Rights are limited in Slovakia, Poland and Lithuania. The dividing line in Europe is clearly not Muslim/non-Muslim.
Not a single Muslim majority nation on earth has same sex marriage, same sex unions or a female head of state or government.
The dividing line globally is clearly Muslim/non Muslim
Not a single Hindu, Jewish, Shinto or Daoist majority country has same sex marriage. Same sex marriage is largely confined to Western Europe and the Americas, with a few exceptions.
What in the name of holy Christological fuck is a "Shinto-majority country"?
The nonsense "non-racist" way of saying East Asian countries.
It's not even that, Shinto only exists in Japan, by definition, and even the Japanese would not say Japan is a "Shinto-majority country". It's a statement by some lefty way out of their intellectual depth and flailing around for a fake rock to cling on to
COP29, which started badly with plenty of no shows, is now on the verge of a complete breakdown, and that's on top of the Commonwealth hustle and FUBAR last month:
If they are, and I fear they may well be, then our descendants are basically fucked. The high point of international cooperation has been and gone, and the future is one of nationalist insanity and environmental destruction.
Darwin got it all wrong. We're regressing.
Evolution is not teleological. Darwin never said it always means "progress or improvement"
Yes, things can zig zag. I know that.
Anyway, as I now keep saying to all and sundry, Left Populism is coming. A radical economic offer for the struggling classes without the tacky xenophobic nostalgia that defines the right wing version.
It won't get funded by billionaires (for obvious reasons) but that won't matter once it gets rolling. I'm in. ✊️🕺
(please refrain from the very tedious "lol" if you choose to reply, which you shouldn't feel you have to)
I have seen you suggest this a couple of times and I don't really get it. Left populism would be an utter disaster for all of us (see Venezuela for an obvious example).
Populism is the enemy of progress, both of the left and right variety, and I think of you as a progressive. What's going on?
I mean a politics that shifts wealth and opportunity in favour of those who are in most need without corruption or financial recklessness or xenophobic obsession with borders and immigration. Nothing like Venezuela.
What do you honestly think will happen if Britain becomes, say, 30% Muslim? Or 40%? Think about it, and be honest
At 50-60% we could even get Sharia law
Um… who was saying they haven’t seen much evidence of Great Replacement Theory cropping up on PB?
What's the difference between a conspiracy theory and a projection of current trends?
From the 2001 to the 2021 census, Islam went from 2.7% to 5.97%, so that’s an increase of 3.27%, or 0.16% per year. If we project that trend forward, the UK will reach 50% Muslim in 269 more years. That is, in 2290. I think it unlikely any trend would actually continue for over two and a half centuries.
That’s the difference between a conspiracy theory and a projection of current trends.
That's not how it works, the replacement rate for Muslims is much higher than it is for non-Muslims in the UK - they have more kids per family than everyone else so the growth isn't linear. I'd have thought someone with your background would have been able to work that out. You probably did but it wouldn't help your stupid point I guess.
Immigrant populations rapidly move to have fertility rates like the local population. This happens in a few generations. Third generation from a Pakistani or Bangladeshi heritage have a similar number of kids to White British parents, as do third generation from an Indian/Hindu heritage.
How many kids have you had? How many kids did your grandparents or great-grandparents have?
But that's not what's happened for Muslim people in the UK, you want it to be true but it's not. The fertility rate among Muslims is substantially higher than among everyone else. You're going to be sitting there one day in the future while Labour passed a bunch of hateful anti-gay legislation after being pushed into it by the Muslim party and you'll be telling yourself "at least I wasn't racist like those awful Tories".
There's a weird blind spot and accomodation of Islam by the left, it's the major part of the coalition that doesn't fit and eventually they'll form their own party and the tail will wag the dog. If you can't see that then I pity you. The sad part is you're smart enough that you probably do see it and realise that it's a path we're currently heading down but you're so far gone down the "mustn't be perceived as racist" road that there's no coming back. You can't repudiate it without admitting that maybe, just maybe, allowing millions of people who are opposed to our cultural values and have very strong beliefs in a stone age religion with backwards ideas was a poor idea.
Like the rest of the establishment you might get a scintilla of realisation from time to time but the fear of what you've allowed to happen will mean you will push that realisation aside and continue as if it's not happening and pretend to yourself that we're wrong and you're right. You're not, and you know it, I know it but you will never admit it.
Don't group the left into one homogeneous group. If you're concerned about "cancel culture", it's much more pernicious on this side of the spectrum because if you're campaigning on a particular issue (for me, various environmental stuff and active travel), you often get co-opted into other views which you don't actually hold. It's very awkward.
I basically agree with with what a lot of you guys are saying, but I'm naturally suspicious of your motivations. I really need a rock-solid, and very brave, lefty to put their head above the parapet.
I also note that rise in extremist views among young Muslim men mirrors that of white menelsewhere in Europe. Perhaps this the same phenomenon, and it's ultimately not based on religion.
My motivations are very simply and I've been open about them for a long time. Islam isn't compatible with western culture, some Muslims are and are secular but they are not the majority. In every major piece of research a huge majority of Muslims across western countries believe that violence is justified against people who blaspheme against Islam. That to me means Islam isn't compatible with our core value of free expression of ideas, you can't have free expression if people are afraid that they'll be stabbed if they speak out against Islamic ideas and that to me is a step too far.
I understand why you have scepticism but for me Islam is a religion that is never going to have a "reformation", the idea is antithetical to the religion and in the UK as you note, younger generations are more conservative than their parents and grandparents who lived under Islamic rule and escaped from it, but their kids have been fed a diet of poison in foreign funded mosques and on social media so they've become more militant and less likely to identify with British culture and more likely to hate those values and the people who follow them.
I was listening to an old Rest is History episode yesterday and they skated over something involving Islam, being quite open that they were worried about the response. Before rightly piling in on some of the a-historical stuff in other religions.
Not good.
Yes and this is why I'm worried, it's already effected the fabric of our country and culture. Our freedoms are lessened by Islam and that for me is not a future I want. Sadly, atm, it puts me on the same side as Tommy Robinson but in 2005-2009 it was Nick Griffin that was raising the alarm about Muslim rape gangs in northern cities. The establishment, the likes of our commissars on here, tried very hard to kill that story and failed. I have faith that the people of this country will recognise that the sacrifices we're being asked to make is too much and vote accordingly next time.
COP29, which started badly with plenty of no shows, is now on the verge of a complete breakdown, and that's on top of the Commonwealth hustle and FUBAR last month:
If they are, and I fear they may well be, then our descendants are basically fucked. The high point of international cooperation has been and gone, and the future is one of nationalist insanity and environmental destruction.
Darwin got it all wrong. We're regressing.
Evolution is not teleological. Darwin never said it always means "progress or improvement"
Yes, things can zig zag. I know that.
Anyway, as I now keep saying to all and sundry, Left Populism is coming. A radical economic offer for the struggling classes without the tacky xenophobic nostalgia that defines the right wing version.
It won't get funded by billionaires (for obvious reasons) but that won't matter once it gets rolling. I'm in. ✊️🕺
(please refrain from the very tedious "lol" if you choose to reply, which you shouldn't feel you have to)
I have seen you suggest this a couple of times and I don't really get it. Left populism would be an utter disaster for all of us (see Venezuela for an obvious example).
Populism is the enemy of progress, both of the left and right variety, and I think of you as a progressive. What's going on?
I mean a politics that shifts wealth and opportunity in favour of those who are in most need without corruption or financial recklessness or xenophobic obsession with borders and immigration. Nothing like Venezuela.
What do you honestly think will happen if Britain becomes, say, 30% Muslim? Or 40%? Think about it, and be honest
He can't. He wants to live in his bubble.
We couldn't accept that level and nor could any European country.
I agree, but that means necessarily at some point:
European countries bring in nation- or culture-specific restrictions on Islamic migration, which at the moment is entirely unpalatable to a lot of lefties, or indeed lots of people (and I can see why)
And/or
European countries start restricting displays of Islamic religion as a deterrent. Minarets, burqas, etc. We already see that in France and Switzerland
And/or
European countries start "voluntary deportation" of migrants. Already happening in Sweden
I predict this will all get a lot worse before it gets better
I think restricting and revoking visas and residency for people who don't align to our cultural values is necessary. It's going to upset people but we're allowing the viper into the nest because people are scared to say that vipers aren't good for nests.
Again, to repeat what I have posted many times in the past, we should be looking to Norway for our example here. 300 hours of compulsory language and culture lessons and immigrants don't get to choose where the live. They are assigned a county where they have to settle to avoid the creation of ghettos. It works.
Does it? Even Norway has serious problems. Probably only Denmark is seriously attempting - with success - to address this. Hence the re-election of their social democrat government, which is hard right - to an eye-watering degree by UK standards - on migration, culture, and asylum
Norway has serious problems with right wing biker gangs buring down churches. They don't have any real issues with immigrant populations - certainly nothing to copare with most other European countries.
If you remember this is why I was so convinced - along with you - that the 2011 attacks would turn out to be a right wing nutter rather than a muslim attack.
Norway is mercifully free of terror attacks, and of course Breivik was the worst by far
However of the 13 attacks since the year 2000, 8 or 9 appear to be Muslim/Islamist - ie the majority
BTW; how many deaths were there in these 13 attacks, just to put things in context for us.
Please, take your time.
Suggesting muslims are not over represented in terror/terrorist attacks would be very brave of you.
In my lifetime, by far the largest number of terrorist attacks in the UK were committed by Christians from Northern Ireland. If we look across Europe, then again the numbers are dominated by Christians, from Northern Ireland and the Basque Country.
Yep, the Christmas festivals of Europe are barricaded by concrete blocks and police with submachine guns because we are all scared of mass death caused by white Christian men from Biarritz and Bilbao
COP29, which started badly with plenty of no shows, is now on the verge of a complete breakdown, and that's on top of the Commonwealth hustle and FUBAR last month:
If they are, and I fear they may well be, then our descendants are basically fucked. The high point of international cooperation has been and gone, and the future is one of nationalist insanity and environmental destruction.
Darwin got it all wrong. We're regressing.
Evolution is not teleological. Darwin never said it always means "progress or improvement"
Yes, things can zig zag. I know that.
Anyway, as I now keep saying to all and sundry, Left Populism is coming. A radical economic offer for the struggling classes without the tacky xenophobic nostalgia that defines the right wing version.
It won't get funded by billionaires (for obvious reasons) but that won't matter once it gets rolling. I'm in. ✊️🕺
(please refrain from the very tedious "lol" if you choose to reply, which you shouldn't feel you have to)
I have seen you suggest this a couple of times and I don't really get it. Left populism would be an utter disaster for all of us (see Venezuela for an obvious example).
Populism is the enemy of progress, both of the left and right variety, and I think of you as a progressive. What's going on?
I mean a politics that shifts wealth and opportunity in favour of those who are in most need without corruption or financial recklessness or xenophobic obsession with borders and immigration. Nothing like Venezuela.
What do you honestly think will happen if Britain becomes, say, 30% Muslim? Or 40%? Think about it, and be honest
He can't. He wants to live in his bubble.
We couldn't accept that level and nor could any European country.
I agree, but that means necessarily at some point:
European countries bring in nation- or culture-specific restrictions on Islamic migration, which at the moment is entirely unpalatable to a lot of lefties, or indeed lots of people (and I can see why)
And/or
European countries start restricting displays of Islamic religion as a deterrent. Minarets, burqas, etc. We already see that in France and Switzerland
And/or
European countries start "voluntary deportation" of migrants. Already happening in Sweden
I predict this will all get a lot worse before it gets better
I think restricting and revoking visas and residency for people who don't align to our cultural values is necessary. It's going to upset people but we're allowing the viper into the nest because people are scared to say that vipers aren't good for nests.
Again, to repeat what I have posted many times in the past, we should be looking to Norway for our example here. 300 hours of compulsory language and culture lessons and immigrants don't get to choose where the live. They are assigned a county where they have to settle to avoid the creation of ghettos. It works.
Does it? Even Norway has serious problems. Probably only Denmark is seriously attempting - with success - to address this. Hence the re-election of their social democrat government, which is hard right - to an eye-watering degree by UK standards - on migration, culture, and asylum
Norway has serious problems with right wing biker gangs buring down churches. They don't have any real issues with immigrant populations - certainly nothing to copare with most other European countries.
If you remember this is why I was so convinced - along with you - that the 2011 attacks would turn out to be a right wing nutter rather than a muslim attack.
Norway is mercifully free of terror attacks, and of course Breivik was the worst by far
However of the 13 attacks since the year 2000, 8 or 9 appear to be Muslim/Islamist - ie the majority
BTW; how many deaths were there in these 13 attacks, just to put things in context for us.
Please, take your time.
Suggesting muslims are not over represented in terror/terrorist attacks would be very brave of you.
In my lifetime, by far the largest number of terrorist attacks in the UK were committed by Christians from Northern Ireland. If we look across Europe, then again the numbers are dominated by Christians, from Northern Ireland and the Basque Country.
And when did your life begin?
And do you not understand the concept of proportionality? Until very recently the Muslim population in Europe was minimal.
COP29, which started badly with plenty of no shows, is now on the verge of a complete breakdown, and that's on top of the Commonwealth hustle and FUBAR last month:
If they are, and I fear they may well be, then our descendants are basically fucked. The high point of international cooperation has been and gone, and the future is one of nationalist insanity and environmental destruction.
Darwin got it all wrong. We're regressing.
Evolution is not teleological. Darwin never said it always means "progress or improvement"
Yes, things can zig zag. I know that.
Anyway, as I now keep saying to all and sundry, Left Populism is coming. A radical economic offer for the struggling classes without the tacky xenophobic nostalgia that defines the right wing version.
It won't get funded by billionaires (for obvious reasons) but that won't matter once it gets rolling. I'm in. ✊️🕺
(please refrain from the very tedious "lol" if you choose to reply, which you shouldn't feel you have to)
I have seen you suggest this a couple of times and I don't really get it. Left populism would be an utter disaster for all of us (see Venezuela for an obvious example).
Populism is the enemy of progress, both of the left and right variety, and I think of you as a progressive. What's going on?
I mean a politics that shifts wealth and opportunity in favour of those who are in most need without corruption or financial recklessness or xenophobic obsession with borders and immigration. Nothing like Venezuela.
What do you honestly think will happen if Britain becomes, say, 30% Muslim? Or 40%? Think about it, and be honest
He can't. He wants to live in his bubble.
We couldn't accept that level and nor could any European country.
I agree, but that means necessarily at some point:
European countries bring in nation- or culture-specific restrictions on Islamic migration, which at the moment is entirely unpalatable to a lot of lefties, or indeed lots of people (and I can see why)
And/or
European countries start restricting displays of Islamic religion as a deterrent. Minarets, burqas, etc. We already see that in France and Switzerland
And/or
European countries start "voluntary deportation" of migrants. Already happening in Sweden
I predict this will all get a lot worse before it gets better
I think restricting and revoking visas and residency for people who don't align to our cultural values is necessary. It's going to upset people but we're allowing the viper into the nest because people are scared to say that vipers aren't good for nests.
Again, to repeat what I have posted many times in the past, we should be looking to Norway for our example here. 300 hours of compulsory language and culture lessons and immigrants don't get to choose where the live. They are assigned a county where they have to settle to avoid the creation of ghettos. It works.
Does it? Even Norway has serious problems. Probably only Denmark is seriously attempting - with success - to address this. Hence the re-election of their social democrat government, which is hard right - to an eye-watering degree by UK standards - on migration, culture, and asylum
Norway has serious problems with right wing biker gangs buring down churches. They don't have any real issues with immigrant populations - certainly nothing to copare with most other European countries.
If you remember this is why I was so convinced - along with you - that the 2011 attacks would turn out to be a right wing nutter rather than a muslim attack.
Norway is mercifully free of terror attacks, and of course Breivik was the worst by far
However of the 13 attacks since the year 2000, 8 or 9 appear to be Muslim/Islamist - ie the majority
BTW; how many deaths were there in these 13 attacks, just to put things in context for us.
Please, take your time.
Suggesting muslims are not over represented in terror/terrorist attacks would be very brave of you.
In my lifetime, by far the largest number of terrorist attacks in the UK were committed by Christians from Northern Ireland. If we look across Europe, then again the numbers are dominated by Christians, from Northern Ireland and the Basque Country.
And when did your life begin?
And do you not understand the concept of proportionality? Until very recently the Muslim population in Europe was minimal.
Are you excluding the former Ottoman controlled territories of the Balkans from your definition of Europe?
COP29, which started badly with plenty of no shows, is now on the verge of a complete breakdown, and that's on top of the Commonwealth hustle and FUBAR last month:
If they are, and I fear they may well be, then our descendants are basically fucked. The high point of international cooperation has been and gone, and the future is one of nationalist insanity and environmental destruction.
Darwin got it all wrong. We're regressing.
Evolution is not teleological. Darwin never said it always means "progress or improvement"
Yes, things can zig zag. I know that.
Anyway, as I now keep saying to all and sundry, Left Populism is coming. A radical economic offer for the struggling classes without the tacky xenophobic nostalgia that defines the right wing version.
It won't get funded by billionaires (for obvious reasons) but that won't matter once it gets rolling. I'm in. ✊️🕺
(please refrain from the very tedious "lol" if you choose to reply, which you shouldn't feel you have to)
I have seen you suggest this a couple of times and I don't really get it. Left populism would be an utter disaster for all of us (see Venezuela for an obvious example).
Populism is the enemy of progress, both of the left and right variety, and I think of you as a progressive. What's going on?
I mean a politics that shifts wealth and opportunity in favour of those who are in most need without corruption or financial recklessness or xenophobic obsession with borders and immigration. Nothing like Venezuela.
What do you honestly think will happen if Britain becomes, say, 30% Muslim? Or 40%? Think about it, and be honest
He can't. He wants to live in his bubble.
We couldn't accept that level and nor could any European country.
I agree, but that means necessarily at some point:
European countries bring in nation- or culture-specific restrictions on Islamic migration, which at the moment is entirely unpalatable to a lot of lefties, or indeed lots of people (and I can see why)
And/or
European countries start restricting displays of Islamic religion as a deterrent. Minarets, burqas, etc. We already see that in France and Switzerland
And/or
European countries start "voluntary deportation" of migrants. Already happening in Sweden
I predict this will all get a lot worse before it gets better
I think restricting and revoking visas and residency for people who don't align to our cultural values is necessary. It's going to upset people but we're allowing the viper into the nest because people are scared to say that vipers aren't good for nests.
Again, to repeat what I have posted many times in the past, we should be looking to Norway for our example here. 300 hours of compulsory language and culture lessons and immigrants don't get to choose where the live. They are assigned a county where they have to settle to avoid the creation of ghettos. It works.
Does it? Even Norway has serious problems. Probably only Denmark is seriously attempting - with success - to address this. Hence the re-election of their social democrat government, which is hard right - to an eye-watering degree by UK standards - on migration, culture, and asylum
Norway has serious problems with right wing biker gangs buring down churches. They don't have any real issues with immigrant populations - certainly nothing to copare with most other European countries.
If you remember this is why I was so convinced - along with you - that the 2011 attacks would turn out to be a right wing nutter rather than a muslim attack.
Norway is mercifully free of terror attacks, and of course Breivik was the worst by far
However of the 13 attacks since the year 2000, 8 or 9 appear to be Muslim/Islamist - ie the majority
BTW; how many deaths were there in these 13 attacks, just to put things in context for us.
Please, take your time.
Suggesting muslims are not over represented in terror/terrorist attacks would be very brave of you.
In my lifetime, by far the largest number of terrorist attacks in the UK were committed by Christians from Northern Ireland. If we look across Europe, then again the numbers are dominated by Christians, from Northern Ireland and the Basque Country.
Yep, the Christmas festivals of Europe are barricaded by concrete blocks and police with submachine guns because we are all scared of mass death caused by white Christian men from Biarritz and Bilbao
This isn't your best day on PB, is it?
It's laughable but the worrying thing is that he gives us an insight into how the civil service thinks and the establishment view and why nothing changes. It's the kind of stuff that makes me want to go and vote for Nigel Farage and hope he tears down the whole lot and starts again. Get rid of these commissars once and for all. Then I remember that Reform are bunch of ***** so can't bring myself to do and hope that my (others) brand of reason and logic will win the day within the Tory party.
COP29, which started badly with plenty of no shows, is now on the verge of a complete breakdown, and that's on top of the Commonwealth hustle and FUBAR last month:
If they are, and I fear they may well be, then our descendants are basically fucked. The high point of international cooperation has been and gone, and the future is one of nationalist insanity and environmental destruction.
Darwin got it all wrong. We're regressing.
Evolution is not teleological. Darwin never said it always means "progress or improvement"
Yes, things can zig zag. I know that.
Anyway, as I now keep saying to all and sundry, Left Populism is coming. A radical economic offer for the struggling classes without the tacky xenophobic nostalgia that defines the right wing version.
It won't get funded by billionaires (for obvious reasons) but that won't matter once it gets rolling. I'm in. ✊️🕺
(please refrain from the very tedious "lol" if you choose to reply, which you shouldn't feel you have to)
I have seen you suggest this a couple of times and I don't really get it. Left populism would be an utter disaster for all of us (see Venezuela for an obvious example).
Populism is the enemy of progress, both of the left and right variety, and I think of you as a progressive. What's going on?
I mean a politics that shifts wealth and opportunity in favour of those who are in most need without corruption or financial recklessness or xenophobic obsession with borders and immigration. Nothing like Venezuela.
What do you honestly think will happen if Britain becomes, say, 30% Muslim? Or 40%? Think about it, and be honest
He can't. He wants to live in his bubble.
We couldn't accept that level and nor could any European country.
I agree, but that means necessarily at some point:
European countries bring in nation- or culture-specific restrictions on Islamic migration, which at the moment is entirely unpalatable to a lot of lefties, or indeed lots of people (and I can see why)
And/or
European countries start restricting displays of Islamic religion as a deterrent. Minarets, burqas, etc. We already see that in France and Switzerland
And/or
European countries start "voluntary deportation" of migrants. Already happening in Sweden
I predict this will all get a lot worse before it gets better
I think restricting and revoking visas and residency for people who don't align to our cultural values is necessary. It's going to upset people but we're allowing the viper into the nest because people are scared to say that vipers aren't good for nests.
Again, to repeat what I have posted many times in the past, we should be looking to Norway for our example here. 300 hours of compulsory language and culture lessons and immigrants don't get to choose where the live. They are assigned a county where they have to settle to avoid the creation of ghettos. It works.
Does it? Even Norway has serious problems. Probably only Denmark is seriously attempting - with success - to address this. Hence the re-election of their social democrat government, which is hard right - to an eye-watering degree by UK standards - on migration, culture, and asylum
Norway has serious problems with right wing biker gangs buring down churches. They don't have any real issues with immigrant populations - certainly nothing to copare with most other European countries.
If you remember this is why I was so convinced - along with you - that the 2011 attacks would turn out to be a right wing nutter rather than a muslim attack.
Norway is mercifully free of terror attacks, and of course Breivik was the worst by far
However of the 13 attacks since the year 2000, 8 or 9 appear to be Muslim/Islamist - ie the majority
BTW; how many deaths were there in these 13 attacks, just to put things in context for us.
Please, take your time.
Suggesting muslims are not over represented in terror/terrorist attacks would be very brave of you.
In my lifetime, by far the largest number of terrorist attacks in the UK were committed by Christians from Northern Ireland. If we look across Europe, then again the numbers are dominated by Christians, from Northern Ireland and the Basque Country.
And when did your life begin?
And do you not understand the concept of proportionality? Until very recently the Muslim population in Europe was minimal.
Are you excluding the former Ottoman controlled territories of the Balkans from your definition of Europe?
Fair point I forgot that small part. Let's just say the rest of Europe.
COP29, which started badly with plenty of no shows, is now on the verge of a complete breakdown, and that's on top of the Commonwealth hustle and FUBAR last month:
If they are, and I fear they may well be, then our descendants are basically fucked. The high point of international cooperation has been and gone, and the future is one of nationalist insanity and environmental destruction.
Darwin got it all wrong. We're regressing.
Evolution is not teleological. Darwin never said it always means "progress or improvement"
Yes, things can zig zag. I know that.
Anyway, as I now keep saying to all and sundry, Left Populism is coming. A radical economic offer for the struggling classes without the tacky xenophobic nostalgia that defines the right wing version.
It won't get funded by billionaires (for obvious reasons) but that won't matter once it gets rolling. I'm in. ✊️🕺
(please refrain from the very tedious "lol" if you choose to reply, which you shouldn't feel you have to)
I have seen you suggest this a couple of times and I don't really get it. Left populism would be an utter disaster for all of us (see Venezuela for an obvious example).
Populism is the enemy of progress, both of the left and right variety, and I think of you as a progressive. What's going on?
I mean a politics that shifts wealth and opportunity in favour of those who are in most need without corruption or financial recklessness or xenophobic obsession with borders and immigration. Nothing like Venezuela.
What do you honestly think will happen if Britain becomes, say, 30% Muslim? Or 40%? Think about it, and be honest
He can't. He wants to live in his bubble.
We couldn't accept that level and nor could any European country.
I agree, but that means necessarily at some point:
European countries bring in nation- or culture-specific restrictions on Islamic migration, which at the moment is entirely unpalatable to a lot of lefties, or indeed lots of people (and I can see why)
And/or
European countries start restricting displays of Islamic religion as a deterrent. Minarets, burqas, etc. We already see that in France and Switzerland
And/or
European countries start "voluntary deportation" of migrants. Already happening in Sweden
I predict this will all get a lot worse before it gets better
I think restricting and revoking visas and residency for people who don't align to our cultural values is necessary. It's going to upset people but we're allowing the viper into the nest because people are scared to say that vipers aren't good for nests.
Again, to repeat what I have posted many times in the past, we should be looking to Norway for our example here. 300 hours of compulsory language and culture lessons and immigrants don't get to choose where the live. They are assigned a county where they have to settle to avoid the creation of ghettos. It works.
Does it? Even Norway has serious problems. Probably only Denmark is seriously attempting - with success - to address this. Hence the re-election of their social democrat government, which is hard right - to an eye-watering degree by UK standards - on migration, culture, and asylum
Norway has serious problems with right wing biker gangs buring down churches. They don't have any real issues with immigrant populations - certainly nothing to copare with most other European countries.
If you remember this is why I was so convinced - along with you - that the 2011 attacks would turn out to be a right wing nutter rather than a muslim attack.
Norway is mercifully free of terror attacks, and of course Breivik was the worst by far
However of the 13 attacks since the year 2000, 8 or 9 appear to be Muslim/Islamist - ie the majority
BTW; how many deaths were there in these 13 attacks, just to put things in context for us.
Please, take your time.
Suggesting muslims are not over represented in terror/terrorist attacks would be very brave of you.
In my lifetime, by far the largest number of terrorist attacks in the UK were committed by Christians from Northern Ireland. If we look across Europe, then again the numbers are dominated by Christians, from Northern Ireland and the Basque Country.
Yep, the Christmas festivals of Europe are barricaded by concrete blocks and police with submachine guns because we are all scared of mass death caused by white Christian men from Biarritz and Bilbao
This isn't your best day on PB, is it?
But you just said Mr Breivik was the worst terrorist in Norwegian history.
COP29, which started badly with plenty of no shows, is now on the verge of a complete breakdown, and that's on top of the Commonwealth hustle and FUBAR last month:
If they are, and I fear they may well be, then our descendants are basically fucked. The high point of international cooperation has been and gone, and the future is one of nationalist insanity and environmental destruction.
Darwin got it all wrong. We're regressing.
Evolution is not teleological. Darwin never said it always means "progress or improvement"
Yes, things can zig zag. I know that.
Anyway, as I now keep saying to all and sundry, Left Populism is coming. A radical economic offer for the struggling classes without the tacky xenophobic nostalgia that defines the right wing version.
It won't get funded by billionaires (for obvious reasons) but that won't matter once it gets rolling. I'm in. ✊️🕺
(please refrain from the very tedious "lol" if you choose to reply, which you shouldn't feel you have to)
I have seen you suggest this a couple of times and I don't really get it. Left populism would be an utter disaster for all of us (see Venezuela for an obvious example).
Populism is the enemy of progress, both of the left and right variety, and I think of you as a progressive. What's going on?
I mean a politics that shifts wealth and opportunity in favour of those who are in most need without corruption or financial recklessness or xenophobic obsession with borders and immigration. Nothing like Venezuela.
What do you honestly think will happen if Britain becomes, say, 30% Muslim? Or 40%? Think about it, and be honest
He can't. He wants to live in his bubble.
We couldn't accept that level and nor could any European country.
I agree, but that means necessarily at some point:
European countries bring in nation- or culture-specific restrictions on Islamic migration, which at the moment is entirely unpalatable to a lot of lefties, or indeed lots of people (and I can see why)
And/or
European countries start restricting displays of Islamic religion as a deterrent. Minarets, burqas, etc. We already see that in France and Switzerland
And/or
European countries start "voluntary deportation" of migrants. Already happening in Sweden
I predict this will all get a lot worse before it gets better
I think restricting and revoking visas and residency for people who don't align to our cultural values is necessary. It's going to upset people but we're allowing the viper into the nest because people are scared to say that vipers aren't good for nests.
Again, to repeat what I have posted many times in the past, we should be looking to Norway for our example here. 300 hours of compulsory language and culture lessons and immigrants don't get to choose where the live. They are assigned a county where they have to settle to avoid the creation of ghettos. It works.
Does it? Even Norway has serious problems. Probably only Denmark is seriously attempting - with success - to address this. Hence the re-election of their social democrat government, which is hard right - to an eye-watering degree by UK standards - on migration, culture, and asylum
Norway has serious problems with right wing biker gangs buring down churches. They don't have any real issues with immigrant populations - certainly nothing to copare with most other European countries.
If you remember this is why I was so convinced - along with you - that the 2011 attacks would turn out to be a right wing nutter rather than a muslim attack.
Norway is mercifully free of terror attacks, and of course Breivik was the worst by far
However of the 13 attacks since the year 2000, 8 or 9 appear to be Muslim/Islamist - ie the majority
BTW; how many deaths were there in these 13 attacks, just to put things in context for us.
Please, take your time.
Suggesting muslims are not over represented in terror/terrorist attacks would be very brave of you.
In my lifetime, by far the largest number of terrorist attacks in the UK were committed by Christians from Northern Ireland. If we look across Europe, then again the numbers are dominated by Christians, from Northern Ireland and the Basque Country.
And when did your life begin?
And do you not understand the concept of proportionality? Until very recently the Muslim population in Europe was minimal.
Are you excluding the former Ottoman controlled territories of the Balkans from your definition of Europe?
Fair point I forgot that small part. Let's just say the rest of Europe.
COP29, which started badly with plenty of no shows, is now on the verge of a complete breakdown, and that's on top of the Commonwealth hustle and FUBAR last month:
If they are, and I fear they may well be, then our descendants are basically fucked. The high point of international cooperation has been and gone, and the future is one of nationalist insanity and environmental destruction.
Darwin got it all wrong. We're regressing.
Evolution is not teleological. Darwin never said it always means "progress or improvement"
Yes, things can zig zag. I know that.
Anyway, as I now keep saying to all and sundry, Left Populism is coming. A radical economic offer for the struggling classes without the tacky xenophobic nostalgia that defines the right wing version.
It won't get funded by billionaires (for obvious reasons) but that won't matter once it gets rolling. I'm in. ✊️🕺
(please refrain from the very tedious "lol" if you choose to reply, which you shouldn't feel you have to)
I have seen you suggest this a couple of times and I don't really get it. Left populism would be an utter disaster for all of us (see Venezuela for an obvious example).
Populism is the enemy of progress, both of the left and right variety, and I think of you as a progressive. What's going on?
I mean a politics that shifts wealth and opportunity in favour of those who are in most need without corruption or financial recklessness or xenophobic obsession with borders and immigration. Nothing like Venezuela.
What do you honestly think will happen if Britain becomes, say, 30% Muslim? Or 40%? Think about it, and be honest
At 50-60% we could even get Sharia law
I'm not aware of any large country where that has happened in modern times, though there are certain small examples. There are majoritarian Muslim smaller countries in Europe - Albania, B&H, Kosovo. I'm not sure of the status of Sharia Law in those.
Same sex marriage and civil unions are certainly illegal in Albania, same sex marriage is not legal in Kosovo or Bosnia either so even if not full Sharia LGBT rights would likely regress
LGBT rights are also limited in Serbia, Bulgaria and Romania, which are all largely Christian, so is it Islam in Albania, Bosnia and Kosovo, or something about those countries being in the Balkans?
Slovenia is in the Balkans and has same sex marriage and Croatia has civil unions. No Muslim majority nation has same sex marriage.
Women are also discouraged from working with men in the same workplaces in Islam
Slovenia and Croatia are more western looking. I referred you already to Serbia, Bulgaria and Romania. You can also add North Macedonia. Moldova, Ukraine and eastwards also have no recognition of same sex marriages. Rights are limited in Slovakia, Poland and Lithuania. The dividing line in Europe is clearly not Muslim/non-Muslim.
Not a single Muslim majority nation on earth has same sex marriage, same sex unions or a female head of state or government.
The dividing line globally is clearly Muslim/non Muslim
Not a single Hindu, Jewish, Shinto or Daoist majority country has same sex marriage. Same sex marriage is largely confined to Western Europe and the Americas, with a few exceptions.
What in the name of holy Christological fuck is a "Shinto-majority country"?
The nonsense "non-racist" way of saying East Asian countries.
No. Shinto is largely confined to Japan. Japan is the only Shinto-majority country in the world.
East Asia is religiously diverse, but Buddhism is probably commonest. Most Buddhist-majority countries don’t have same sex marriage either… but one does! Thailand.
COP29, which started badly with plenty of no shows, is now on the verge of a complete breakdown, and that's on top of the Commonwealth hustle and FUBAR last month:
If they are, and I fear they may well be, then our descendants are basically fucked. The high point of international cooperation has been and gone, and the future is one of nationalist insanity and environmental destruction.
Darwin got it all wrong. We're regressing.
Evolution is not teleological. Darwin never said it always means "progress or improvement"
Yes, things can zig zag. I know that.
Anyway, as I now keep saying to all and sundry, Left Populism is coming. A radical economic offer for the struggling classes without the tacky xenophobic nostalgia that defines the right wing version.
It won't get funded by billionaires (for obvious reasons) but that won't matter once it gets rolling. I'm in. ✊️🕺
(please refrain from the very tedious "lol" if you choose to reply, which you shouldn't feel you have to)
I have seen you suggest this a couple of times and I don't really get it. Left populism would be an utter disaster for all of us (see Venezuela for an obvious example).
Populism is the enemy of progress, both of the left and right variety, and I think of you as a progressive. What's going on?
I mean a politics that shifts wealth and opportunity in favour of those who are in most need without corruption or financial recklessness or xenophobic obsession with borders and immigration. Nothing like Venezuela.
What do you honestly think will happen if Britain becomes, say, 30% Muslim? Or 40%? Think about it, and be honest
He can't. He wants to live in his bubble.
We couldn't accept that level and nor could any European country.
I agree, but that means necessarily at some point:
European countries bring in nation- or culture-specific restrictions on Islamic migration, which at the moment is entirely unpalatable to a lot of lefties, or indeed lots of people (and I can see why)
And/or
European countries start restricting displays of Islamic religion as a deterrent. Minarets, burqas, etc. We already see that in France and Switzerland
And/or
European countries start "voluntary deportation" of migrants. Already happening in Sweden
I predict this will all get a lot worse before it gets better
I think restricting and revoking visas and residency for people who don't align to our cultural values is necessary. It's going to upset people but we're allowing the viper into the nest because people are scared to say that vipers aren't good for nests.
Again, to repeat what I have posted many times in the past, we should be looking to Norway for our example here. 300 hours of compulsory language and culture lessons and immigrants don't get to choose where the live. They are assigned a county where they have to settle to avoid the creation of ghettos. It works.
Does it? Even Norway has serious problems. Probably only Denmark is seriously attempting - with success - to address this. Hence the re-election of their social democrat government, which is hard right - to an eye-watering degree by UK standards - on migration, culture, and asylum
Norway has serious problems with right wing biker gangs buring down churches. They don't have any real issues with immigrant populations - certainly nothing to copare with most other European countries.
If you remember this is why I was so convinced - along with you - that the 2011 attacks would turn out to be a right wing nutter rather than a muslim attack.
Norway is mercifully free of terror attacks, and of course Breivik was the worst by far
However of the 13 attacks since the year 2000, 8 or 9 appear to be Muslim/Islamist - ie the majority
BTW; how many deaths were there in these 13 attacks, just to put things in context for us.
Please, take your time.
Suggesting muslims are not over represented in terror/terrorist attacks would be very brave of you.
In my lifetime, by far the largest number of terrorist attacks in the UK were committed by Christians from Northern Ireland. If we look across Europe, then again the numbers are dominated by Christians, from Northern Ireland and the Basque Country.
Yep, the Christmas festivals of Europe are barricaded by concrete blocks and police with submachine guns because we are all scared of mass death caused by white Christian men from Biarritz and Bilbao
This isn't your best day on PB, is it?
It's laughable but the worrying thing is that he gives us an insight into how the civil service thinks and the establishment view and why nothing changes. It's the kind of stuff that makes me want to go and vote for Nigel Farage and hope he tears down the whole lot and starts again. Get rid of these commissars once and for all. Then I remember that Reform are bunch of ***** so can't bring myself to do and hope that my (others) brand of reason and logic will win the day within the Tory party.
I hear you. I was very tempted to vote Reform and then Big Nige came out with his Pro-Putin shite and I just couldn't
Probably the best bet is a Tory-Reform Coalition, with a Tory PM to rein in the Putinite crap but Reform having the cullions to end Hate Speech Laws, explicitly restrict migration, brusquely repress the boats. It may suit both parties. Reform can get the credit for being genuinely tough, the Tories can get the credit for the softer economic stuff and domesticating Reform
Overall, I cannot see this Labour government winning a second term, despite their huge majority. They are so useless already, and there is no apparent way they can improve. Zero ideas, zero charisma. So the British electorate will likely swing hard to the right in the next election (like almost every other western nation). It just depends how hard they swing
COP29, which started badly with plenty of no shows, is now on the verge of a complete breakdown, and that's on top of the Commonwealth hustle and FUBAR last month:
If they are, and I fear they may well be, then our descendants are basically fucked. The high point of international cooperation has been and gone, and the future is one of nationalist insanity and environmental destruction.
Darwin got it all wrong. We're regressing.
Evolution is not teleological. Darwin never said it always means "progress or improvement"
Yes, things can zig zag. I know that.
Anyway, as I now keep saying to all and sundry, Left Populism is coming. A radical economic offer for the struggling classes without the tacky xenophobic nostalgia that defines the right wing version.
It won't get funded by billionaires (for obvious reasons) but that won't matter once it gets rolling. I'm in. ✊️🕺
(please refrain from the very tedious "lol" if you choose to reply, which you shouldn't feel you have to)
I have seen you suggest this a couple of times and I don't really get it. Left populism would be an utter disaster for all of us (see Venezuela for an obvious example).
Populism is the enemy of progress, both of the left and right variety, and I think of you as a progressive. What's going on?
I mean a politics that shifts wealth and opportunity in favour of those who are in most need without corruption or financial recklessness or xenophobic obsession with borders and immigration. Nothing like Venezuela.
What do you honestly think will happen if Britain becomes, say, 30% Muslim? Or 40%? Think about it, and be honest
At 50-60% we could even get Sharia law
I'm not aware of any large country where that has happened in modern times, though there are certain small examples. There are majoritarian Muslim smaller countries in Europe - Albania, B&H, Kosovo. I'm not sure of the status of Sharia Law in those.
Same sex marriage and civil unions are certainly illegal in Albania, same sex marriage is not legal in Kosovo or Bosnia either so even if not full Sharia LGBT rights would likely regress
LGBT rights are also limited in Serbia, Bulgaria and Romania, which are all largely Christian, so is it Islam in Albania, Bosnia and Kosovo, or something about those countries being in the Balkans?
Slovenia is in the Balkans and has same sex marriage and Croatia has civil unions. No Muslim majority nation has same sex marriage.
Women are also discouraged from working with men in the same workplaces in Islam
Slovenia and Croatia are more western looking. I referred you already to Serbia, Bulgaria and Romania. You can also add North Macedonia. Moldova, Ukraine and eastwards also have no recognition of same sex marriages. Rights are limited in Slovakia, Poland and Lithuania. The dividing line in Europe is clearly not Muslim/non-Muslim.
Not a single Muslim majority nation on earth has same sex marriage, same sex unions or a female head of state or government.
The dividing line globally is clearly Muslim/non Muslim
Not a single Hindu, Jewish, Shinto or Daoist majority country has same sex marriage. Same sex marriage is largely confined to Western Europe and the Americas, with a few exceptions.
What in the name of holy Christological fuck is a "Shinto-majority country"?
The nonsense "non-racist" way of saying East Asian countries.
No. Shinto is largely confined to Japan. Japan is the only Shinto-majority country in the world.
East Asia is religiously diverse, but Buddhism is probably commonest. Most Buddhist-majority countries don’t have same sex marriage either… but one does! Thailand.
I'm sure you'd do well on Mastermind but on the core issue of the clash between Islam and the west, it appears you have nothing to say.
We probably need a plan to rebuild the army, navy and to some extent the air force (this is a trickier one that I'll come back to) over a 5-10 year period, with an industrial strategy to boot, otherwise any extra money will simply be absorbed by inflation. On top, we'd need software integration of the defence platforms. Strategic objective should be to protect international and global trade, global stability and British interests worldwide as well as deter a serious "hot" war on the continent or near east, with a large sized force, and the option of a long-term medium sized deployment overseas.
RAF: hypersonic and drone defences, which might be more where the modern RAF needs to go on top of Tempest, if it's still valid, and additional strike capability. I doubt seven front-line squadrons are enough. Of course, we need maritime aircraft.
Royal Navy: is in a pitiful state. The 1998 SDR projected reducing the fleet of frigates and destroyers from 35 to 32. And we were supposed to get 12 x Type 45 destroyers. But we now actually only have 6 and, I think now, only 12 x frigates, most of which can't put to sea, and 6 x functional HK subs. We need to get back up to 12 x destroyers, 20 x frigates, 12 x attack submarines, four x strategic subs, two amphibious platforms, and a RFA that can sustain them all. We can deploy a serious carrier battlegroup with reserves at any time. Big expansion.
British Army: in an even more pitiful state. At almost every level. Where do you start? Ammo, artillery, fighting vehicles, APCs, tanks and infantry all well below even the most basic establishment levels. The BAOR was about 50k men right though the 1980s and British Forces Germany still 25k men in the 1990s. Whatever way I look at it I think we need the capability for the deployment of two fully equipped heavy war-fighting divisions, with another in reserve and another in training. It probably needs to go back up to about 125,000 regulars which is an expansion of 50,000 men. Massive.
But my fag packet calculations are that we'd need to probably spend 3.5% of GDP ultimately to do all that. So the defence budget need to rise from £57bn per year to about £88-89bn per year or about a 30-32bn increase each year.
I can get there with 2p on the basic rate and the higher rate, so 22p becomes the new basic rate and 42p become the higher rate and 47p the new top rate (raises about £20bn of that) and ending the triple lock (saves about £10bn).
The more I think about it the more I think we have to do it, and start arguing for it.
COP29, which started badly with plenty of no shows, is now on the verge of a complete breakdown, and that's on top of the Commonwealth hustle and FUBAR last month:
If they are, and I fear they may well be, then our descendants are basically fucked. The high point of international cooperation has been and gone, and the future is one of nationalist insanity and environmental destruction.
Darwin got it all wrong. We're regressing.
Evolution is not teleological. Darwin never said it always means "progress or improvement"
Yes, things can zig zag. I know that.
Anyway, as I now keep saying to all and sundry, Left Populism is coming. A radical economic offer for the struggling classes without the tacky xenophobic nostalgia that defines the right wing version.
It won't get funded by billionaires (for obvious reasons) but that won't matter once it gets rolling. I'm in. ✊️🕺
(please refrain from the very tedious "lol" if you choose to reply, which you shouldn't feel you have to)
I have seen you suggest this a couple of times and I don't really get it. Left populism would be an utter disaster for all of us (see Venezuela for an obvious example).
Populism is the enemy of progress, both of the left and right variety, and I think of you as a progressive. What's going on?
I mean a politics that shifts wealth and opportunity in favour of those who are in most need without corruption or financial recklessness or xenophobic obsession with borders and immigration. Nothing like Venezuela.
What do you honestly think will happen if Britain becomes, say, 30% Muslim? Or 40%? Think about it, and be honest
He can't. He wants to live in his bubble.
We couldn't accept that level and nor could any European country.
I agree, but that means necessarily at some point:
European countries bring in nation- or culture-specific restrictions on Islamic migration, which at the moment is entirely unpalatable to a lot of lefties, or indeed lots of people (and I can see why)
And/or
European countries start restricting displays of Islamic religion as a deterrent. Minarets, burqas, etc. We already see that in France and Switzerland
And/or
European countries start "voluntary deportation" of migrants. Already happening in Sweden
I predict this will all get a lot worse before it gets better
I think restricting and revoking visas and residency for people who don't align to our cultural values is necessary. It's going to upset people but we're allowing the viper into the nest because people are scared to say that vipers aren't good for nests.
Again, to repeat what I have posted many times in the past, we should be looking to Norway for our example here. 300 hours of compulsory language and culture lessons and immigrants don't get to choose where the live. They are assigned a county where they have to settle to avoid the creation of ghettos. It works.
Does it? Even Norway has serious problems. Probably only Denmark is seriously attempting - with success - to address this. Hence the re-election of their social democrat government, which is hard right - to an eye-watering degree by UK standards - on migration, culture, and asylum
Norway has serious problems with right wing biker gangs buring down churches. They don't have any real issues with immigrant populations - certainly nothing to copare with most other European countries.
If you remember this is why I was so convinced - along with you - that the 2011 attacks would turn out to be a right wing nutter rather than a muslim attack.
Norway is mercifully free of terror attacks, and of course Breivik was the worst by far
However of the 13 attacks since the year 2000, 8 or 9 appear to be Muslim/Islamist - ie the majority
BTW; how many deaths were there in these 13 attacks, just to put things in context for us.
Please, take your time.
Suggesting muslims are not over represented in terror/terrorist attacks would be very brave of you.
In my lifetime, by far the largest number of terrorist attacks in the UK were committed by Christians from Northern Ireland. If we look across Europe, then again the numbers are dominated by Christians, from Northern Ireland and the Basque Country.
Yep, the Christmas festivals of Europe are barricaded by concrete blocks and police with submachine guns because we are all scared of mass death caused by white Christian men from Biarritz and Bilbao
This isn't your best day on PB, is it?
It's laughable but the worrying thing is that he gives us an insight into how the civil service thinks and the establishment view and why nothing changes. It's the kind of stuff that makes me want to go and vote for Nigel Farage and hope he tears down the whole lot and starts again. Get rid of these commissars once and for all. Then I remember that Reform are bunch of ***** so can't bring myself to do and hope that my (others) brand of reason and logic will win the day within the Tory party.
I hear you. I was very tempted to vote Reform and then Big Nige came out with his Pro-Putin shite and I just couldn't
Probably the best bet is a Tory-Reform Coalition, with a Tory PM to rein in the Putinite crap but Reform having the cullions to end Hate Speech Laws, explicitly restrict migration, brusquely repress the boats. It may suit both parties. Reform can get the credit for being genuinely tough, the Tories can get the credit for the softer economic stuff and domesticating Reform
Overall, I cannot see this Labour government winning a second term, despite their huge majority. They are so useless already, and there is no apparent way they can improve. Zero ideas, zero charisma. So the British electorate will likely swing hard to the right in the next election (like almost every other western nation). It just depends how hard they swing
The next GE will likely be a choice between a Labour and LD government or a Tory and Reform government yes, the chances of another Labour majority are already less than 50%
COP29, which started badly with plenty of no shows, is now on the verge of a complete breakdown, and that's on top of the Commonwealth hustle and FUBAR last month:
If they are, and I fear they may well be, then our descendants are basically fucked. The high point of international cooperation has been and gone, and the future is one of nationalist insanity and environmental destruction.
Darwin got it all wrong. We're regressing.
Evolution is not teleological. Darwin never said it always means "progress or improvement"
Yes, things can zig zag. I know that.
Anyway, as I now keep saying to all and sundry, Left Populism is coming. A radical economic offer for the struggling classes without the tacky xenophobic nostalgia that defines the right wing version.
It won't get funded by billionaires (for obvious reasons) but that won't matter once it gets rolling. I'm in. ✊️🕺
(please refrain from the very tedious "lol" if you choose to reply, which you shouldn't feel you have to)
I have seen you suggest this a couple of times and I don't really get it. Left populism would be an utter disaster for all of us (see Venezuela for an obvious example).
Populism is the enemy of progress, both of the left and right variety, and I think of you as a progressive. What's going on?
I mean a politics that shifts wealth and opportunity in favour of those who are in most need without corruption or financial recklessness or xenophobic obsession with borders and immigration. Nothing like Venezuela.
What do you honestly think will happen if Britain becomes, say, 30% Muslim? Or 40%? Think about it, and be honest
At 50-60% we could even get Sharia law
I'm not aware of any large country where that has happened in modern times, though there are certain small examples. There are majoritarian Muslim smaller countries in Europe - Albania, B&H, Kosovo. I'm not sure of the status of Sharia Law in those.
Same sex marriage and civil unions are certainly illegal in Albania, same sex marriage is not legal in Kosovo or Bosnia either so even if not full Sharia LGBT rights would likely regress
LGBT rights are also limited in Serbia, Bulgaria and Romania, which are all largely Christian, so is it Islam in Albania, Bosnia and Kosovo, or something about those countries being in the Balkans?
Slovenia is in the Balkans and has same sex marriage and Croatia has civil unions. No Muslim majority nation has same sex marriage.
Women are also discouraged from working with men in the same workplaces in Islam
Slovenia and Croatia are more western looking. I referred you already to Serbia, Bulgaria and Romania. You can also add North Macedonia. Moldova, Ukraine and eastwards also have no recognition of same sex marriages. Rights are limited in Slovakia, Poland and Lithuania. The dividing line in Europe is clearly not Muslim/non-Muslim.
Not a single Muslim majority nation on earth has same sex marriage, same sex unions or a female head of state or government.
The dividing line globally is clearly Muslim/non Muslim
Not a single Hindu, Jewish, Shinto or Daoist majority country has same sex marriage. Same sex marriage is largely confined to Western Europe and the Americas, with a few exceptions.
Taiwan has same sex marriage now. Israel has cohabitation rights for same sex couples. Even several Indian states give same sex couples cohabitation rights. India and Israel have also had female PMs and India a female head of state
Taiwan is not a Hindu, Jewish, Shinto or Daoist majority country, so it doesn’t disprove what I said. However, I was not aware of that welcome change in Taiwan. Thanks for bringing it to my attention.
As I said, Israel and India do not have same sex marriage.
There are several Muslim countries that have had female heads of state as well, like Bangladesh, Pakistan, Indonesia, Mali, Senegal, Kyrgyzstan and Tunisia.
COP29, which started badly with plenty of no shows, is now on the verge of a complete breakdown, and that's on top of the Commonwealth hustle and FUBAR last month:
If they are, and I fear they may well be, then our descendants are basically fucked. The high point of international cooperation has been and gone, and the future is one of nationalist insanity and environmental destruction.
Darwin got it all wrong. We're regressing.
Evolution is not teleological. Darwin never said it always means "progress or improvement"
Yes, things can zig zag. I know that.
Anyway, as I now keep saying to all and sundry, Left Populism is coming. A radical economic offer for the struggling classes without the tacky xenophobic nostalgia that defines the right wing version.
It won't get funded by billionaires (for obvious reasons) but that won't matter once it gets rolling. I'm in. ✊️🕺
(please refrain from the very tedious "lol" if you choose to reply, which you shouldn't feel you have to)
I have seen you suggest this a couple of times and I don't really get it. Left populism would be an utter disaster for all of us (see Venezuela for an obvious example).
Populism is the enemy of progress, both of the left and right variety, and I think of you as a progressive. What's going on?
I mean a politics that shifts wealth and opportunity in favour of those who are in most need without corruption or financial recklessness or xenophobic obsession with borders and immigration. Nothing like Venezuela.
What do you honestly think will happen if Britain becomes, say, 30% Muslim? Or 40%? Think about it, and be honest
At 50-60% we could even get Sharia law
I'm not aware of any large country where that has happened in modern times, though there are certain small examples. There are majoritarian Muslim smaller countries in Europe - Albania, B&H, Kosovo. I'm not sure of the status of Sharia Law in those.
Same sex marriage and civil unions are certainly illegal in Albania, same sex marriage is not legal in Kosovo or Bosnia either so even if not full Sharia LGBT rights would likely regress
LGBT rights are also limited in Serbia, Bulgaria and Romania, which are all largely Christian, so is it Islam in Albania, Bosnia and Kosovo, or something about those countries being in the Balkans?
Slovenia is in the Balkans and has same sex marriage and Croatia has civil unions. No Muslim majority nation has same sex marriage.
Women are also discouraged from working with men in the same workplaces in Islam
Slovenia and Croatia are more western looking. I referred you already to Serbia, Bulgaria and Romania. You can also add North Macedonia. Moldova, Ukraine and eastwards also have no recognition of same sex marriages. Rights are limited in Slovakia, Poland and Lithuania. The dividing line in Europe is clearly not Muslim/non-Muslim.
Not a single Muslim majority nation on earth has same sex marriage, same sex unions or a female head of state or government.
The dividing line globally is clearly Muslim/non Muslim
Not a single Hindu, Jewish, Shinto or Daoist majority country has same sex marriage. Same sex marriage is largely confined to Western Europe and the Americas, with a few exceptions.
What in the name of holy Christological fuck is a "Shinto-majority country"?
The nonsense "non-racist" way of saying East Asian countries.
No. Shinto is largely confined to Japan. Japan is the only Shinto-majority country in the world.
East Asia is religiously diverse, but Buddhism is probably commonest. Most Buddhist-majority countries don’t have same sex marriage either… but one does! Thailand.
So a Shinto-majority country is actually.... Japan. And even Japan is not "shinto-majority". No sane person - especially Japanese - would ever use that phrase. You are a fucking imbecile. It depresses me that you sit on govenrment committees
COP29, which started badly with plenty of no shows, is now on the verge of a complete breakdown, and that's on top of the Commonwealth hustle and FUBAR last month:
If they are, and I fear they may well be, then our descendants are basically fucked. The high point of international cooperation has been and gone, and the future is one of nationalist insanity and environmental destruction.
Darwin got it all wrong. We're regressing.
Evolution is not teleological. Darwin never said it always means "progress or improvement"
Yes, things can zig zag. I know that.
Anyway, as I now keep saying to all and sundry, Left Populism is coming. A radical economic offer for the struggling classes without the tacky xenophobic nostalgia that defines the right wing version.
It won't get funded by billionaires (for obvious reasons) but that won't matter once it gets rolling. I'm in. ✊️🕺
(please refrain from the very tedious "lol" if you choose to reply, which you shouldn't feel you have to)
I have seen you suggest this a couple of times and I don't really get it. Left populism would be an utter disaster for all of us (see Venezuela for an obvious example).
Populism is the enemy of progress, both of the left and right variety, and I think of you as a progressive. What's going on?
I mean a politics that shifts wealth and opportunity in favour of those who are in most need without corruption or financial recklessness or xenophobic obsession with borders and immigration. Nothing like Venezuela.
What do you honestly think will happen if Britain becomes, say, 30% Muslim? Or 40%? Think about it, and be honest
At 50-60% we could even get Sharia law
Um… who was saying they haven’t seen much evidence of Great Replacement Theory cropping up on PB?
What's the difference between a conspiracy theory and a projection of current trends?
From the 2001 to the 2021 census, Islam went from 2.7% to 5.97%, so that’s an increase of 3.27%, or 0.16% per year. If we project that trend forward, the UK will reach 50% Muslim in 269 more years. That is, in 2290. I think it unlikely any trend would actually continue for over two and a half centuries.
That’s the difference between a conspiracy theory and a projection of current trends.
That's not how it works, the replacement rate for Muslims is much higher than it is for non-Muslims in the UK - they have more kids per family than everyone else so the growth isn't linear. I'd have thought someone with your background would have been able to work that out. You probably did but it wouldn't help your stupid point I guess.
Immigrant populations rapidly move to have fertility rates like the local population. This happens in a few generations. Third generation from a Pakistani or Bangladeshi heritage have a similar number of kids to White British parents, as do third generation from an Indian/Hindu heritage.
How many kids have you had? How many kids did your grandparents or great-grandparents have?
But that's not what's happened for Muslim people in the UK, you want it to be true but it's not. The fertility rate among Muslims is substantially higher than among everyone else. You're going to be sitting there one day in the future while Labour passed a bunch of hateful anti-gay legislation after being pushed into it by the Muslim party and you'll be telling yourself "at least I wasn't racist like those awful Tories".
There's a weird blind spot and accomodation of Islam by the left, it's the major part of the coalition that doesn't fit and eventually they'll form their own party and the tail will wag the dog. If you can't see that then I pity you. The sad part is you're smart enough that you probably do see it and realise that it's a path we're currently heading down but you're so far gone down the "mustn't be perceived as racist" road that there's no coming back. You can't repudiate it without admitting that maybe, just maybe, allowing millions of people who are opposed to our cultural values and have very strong beliefs in a stone age religion with backwards ideas was a poor idea.
Like the rest of the establishment you might get a scintilla of realisation from time to time but the fear of what you've allowed to happen will mean you will push that realisation aside and continue as if it's not happening and pretend to yourself that we're wrong and you're right. You're not, and you know it, I know it but you will never admit it.
Don't group the left into one homogeneous group. If you're concerned about "cancel culture", it's much more pernicious on this side of the spectrum because if you're campaigning on a particular issue (for me, various environmental stuff and active travel), you often get co-opted into other views which you don't actually hold. It's very awkward.
I basically agree with with what a lot of you guys are saying, but I'm naturally suspicious of your motivations. I really need a rock-solid, and very brave, lefty to put their head above the parapet.
I also note that rise in extremist views among young Muslim men mirrors that of white menelsewhere in Europe. Perhaps this the same phenomenon, and it's ultimately not based on religion.
My motivations are very simply and I've been open about them for a long time. Islam isn't compatible with western culture, some Muslims are and are secular but they are not the majority. In every major piece of research a huge majority of Muslims across western countries believe that violence is justified against people who blaspheme against Islam. That to me means Islam isn't compatible with our core value of free expression of ideas, you can't have free expression if people are afraid that they'll be stabbed if they speak out against Islamic ideas and that to me is a step too far.
I understand why you have scepticism but for me Islam is a religion that is never going to have a "reformation", the idea is antithetical to the religion and in the UK as you note, younger generations are more conservative than their parents and grandparents who lived under Islamic rule and escaped from it, but their kids have been fed a diet of poison in foreign funded mosques and on social media so they've become more militant and less likely to identify with British culture and more likely to hate those values and the people who follow them.
I was listening to an old Rest is History episode yesterday and they skated over something involving Islam, being quite open that they were worried about the response. Before rightly piling in on some of the a-historical stuff in other religions.
Not good.
Yes and this is why I'm worried, it's already effected the fabric of our country and culture. Our freedoms are lessened by Islam and that for me is not a future I want. Sadly, atm, it puts me on the same side as Tommy Robinson but in 2005-2009 it was Nick Griffin that was raising the alarm about Muslim rape gangs in northern cities. The establishment, the likes of our commissars on here, tried very hard to kill that story and failed. I have faith that the people of this country will recognise that the sacrifices we're being asked to make is too much and vote accordingly next time.
The behaviour of the Establishment on such grooming gangs was obviously despicable.
COP29, which started badly with plenty of no shows, is now on the verge of a complete breakdown, and that's on top of the Commonwealth hustle and FUBAR last month:
If they are, and I fear they may well be, then our descendants are basically fucked. The high point of international cooperation has been and gone, and the future is one of nationalist insanity and environmental destruction.
Darwin got it all wrong. We're regressing.
Evolution is not teleological. Darwin never said it always means "progress or improvement"
Yes, things can zig zag. I know that.
Anyway, as I now keep saying to all and sundry, Left Populism is coming. A radical economic offer for the struggling classes without the tacky xenophobic nostalgia that defines the right wing version.
It won't get funded by billionaires (for obvious reasons) but that won't matter once it gets rolling. I'm in. ✊️🕺
(please refrain from the very tedious "lol" if you choose to reply, which you shouldn't feel you have to)
I have seen you suggest this a couple of times and I don't really get it. Left populism would be an utter disaster for all of us (see Venezuela for an obvious example).
Populism is the enemy of progress, both of the left and right variety, and I think of you as a progressive. What's going on?
I mean a politics that shifts wealth and opportunity in favour of those who are in most need without corruption or financial recklessness or xenophobic obsession with borders and immigration. Nothing like Venezuela.
What do you honestly think will happen if Britain becomes, say, 30% Muslim? Or 40%? Think about it, and be honest
He can't. He wants to live in his bubble.
We couldn't accept that level and nor could any European country.
I agree, but that means necessarily at some point:
European countries bring in nation- or culture-specific restrictions on Islamic migration, which at the moment is entirely unpalatable to a lot of lefties, or indeed lots of people (and I can see why)
And/or
European countries start restricting displays of Islamic religion as a deterrent. Minarets, burqas, etc. We already see that in France and Switzerland
And/or
European countries start "voluntary deportation" of migrants. Already happening in Sweden
I predict this will all get a lot worse before it gets better
I think restricting and revoking visas and residency for people who don't align to our cultural values is necessary. It's going to upset people but we're allowing the viper into the nest because people are scared to say that vipers aren't good for nests.
Again, to repeat what I have posted many times in the past, we should be looking to Norway for our example here. 300 hours of compulsory language and culture lessons and immigrants don't get to choose where the live. They are assigned a county where they have to settle to avoid the creation of ghettos. It works.
Does it? Even Norway has serious problems. Probably only Denmark is seriously attempting - with success - to address this. Hence the re-election of their social democrat government, which is hard right - to an eye-watering degree by UK standards - on migration, culture, and asylum
Norway has serious problems with right wing biker gangs buring down churches. They don't have any real issues with immigrant populations - certainly nothing to copare with most other European countries.
If you remember this is why I was so convinced - along with you - that the 2011 attacks would turn out to be a right wing nutter rather than a muslim attack.
Norway is mercifully free of terror attacks, and of course Breivik was the worst by far
However of the 13 attacks since the year 2000, 8 or 9 appear to be Muslim/Islamist - ie the majority
BTW; how many deaths were there in these 13 attacks, just to put things in context for us.
Please, take your time.
Suggesting muslims are not over represented in terror/terrorist attacks would be very brave of you.
In my lifetime, by far the largest number of terrorist attacks in the UK were committed by Christians from Northern Ireland. If we look across Europe, then again the numbers are dominated by Christians, from Northern Ireland and the Basque Country.
Yep, the Christmas festivals of Europe are barricaded by concrete blocks and police with submachine guns because we are all scared of mass death caused by white Christian men from Biarritz and Bilbao
This isn't your best day on PB, is it?
It's laughable but the worrying thing is that he gives us an insight into how the civil service thinks and the establishment view and why nothing changes. It's the kind of stuff that makes me want to go and vote for Nigel Farage and hope he tears down the whole lot and starts again. Get rid of these commissars once and for all. Then I remember that Reform are bunch of ***** so can't bring myself to do and hope that my (others) brand of reason and logic will win the day within the Tory party.
I hear you. I was very tempted to vote Reform and then Big Nige came out with his Pro-Putin shite and I just couldn't
Probably the best bet is a Tory-Reform Coalition, with a Tory PM to rein in the Putinite crap but Reform having the cullions to end Hate Speech Laws, explicitly restrict migration, brusquely repress the boats. It may suit both parties. Reform can get the credit for being genuinely tough, the Tories can get the credit for the softer economic stuff and domesticating Reform
Overall, I cannot see this Labour government winning a second term, despite their huge majority. They are so useless already, and there is no apparent way they can improve. Zero ideas, zero charisma. So the British electorate will likely swing hard to the right in the next election (like almost every other western nation). It just depends how hard they swing
I think ~300 Tory seats and ~50-60 Reform in a coalition would be a good fit, similar to the 2010-2015 coalition in terms of power balance. It keeps the Tories on the centre right and drags the government right overall. No more socialism-lite and big government like we got with Theresa May.
COP29, which started badly with plenty of no shows, is now on the verge of a complete breakdown, and that's on top of the Commonwealth hustle and FUBAR last month:
If they are, and I fear they may well be, then our descendants are basically fucked. The high point of international cooperation has been and gone, and the future is one of nationalist insanity and environmental destruction.
Darwin got it all wrong. We're regressing.
Evolution is not teleological. Darwin never said it always means "progress or improvement"
Yes, things can zig zag. I know that.
Anyway, as I now keep saying to all and sundry, Left Populism is coming. A radical economic offer for the struggling classes without the tacky xenophobic nostalgia that defines the right wing version.
It won't get funded by billionaires (for obvious reasons) but that won't matter once it gets rolling. I'm in. ✊️🕺
(please refrain from the very tedious "lol" if you choose to reply, which you shouldn't feel you have to)
I have seen you suggest this a couple of times and I don't really get it. Left populism would be an utter disaster for all of us (see Venezuela for an obvious example).
Populism is the enemy of progress, both of the left and right variety, and I think of you as a progressive. What's going on?
I mean a politics that shifts wealth and opportunity in favour of those who are in most need without corruption or financial recklessness or xenophobic obsession with borders and immigration. Nothing like Venezuela.
What do you honestly think will happen if Britain becomes, say, 30% Muslim? Or 40%? Think about it, and be honest
At 50-60% we could even get Sharia law
Um… who was saying they haven’t seen much evidence of Great Replacement Theory cropping up on PB?
What's the difference between a conspiracy theory and a projection of current trends?
From the 2001 to the 2021 census, Islam went from 2.7% to 5.97%, so that’s an increase of 3.27%, or 0.16% per year. If we project that trend forward, the UK will reach 50% Muslim in 269 more years. That is, in 2290. I think it unlikely any trend would actually continue for over two and a half centuries.
That’s the difference between a conspiracy theory and a projection of current trends.
That's not how it works, the replacement rate for Muslims is much higher than it is for non-Muslims in the UK - they have more kids per family than everyone else so the growth isn't linear. I'd have thought someone with your background would have been able to work that out. You probably did but it wouldn't help your stupid point I guess.
Immigrant populations rapidly move to have fertility rates like the local population. This happens in a few generations. Third generation from a Pakistani or Bangladeshi heritage have a similar number of kids to White British parents, as do third generation from an Indian/Hindu heritage.
How many kids have you had? How many kids did your grandparents or great-grandparents have?
But that's not what's happened for Muslim people in the UK, you want it to be true but it's not. The fertility rate among Muslims is substantially higher than among everyone else. You're going to be sitting there one day in the future while Labour passed a bunch of hateful anti-gay legislation after being pushed into it by the Muslim party and you'll be telling yourself "at least I wasn't racist like those awful Tories".
There's a weird blind spot and accomodation of Islam by the left, it's the major part of the coalition that doesn't fit and eventually they'll form their own party and the tail will wag the dog. If you can't see that then I pity you. The sad part is you're smart enough that you probably do see it and realise that it's a path we're currently heading down but you're so far gone down the "mustn't be perceived as racist" road that there's no coming back. You can't repudiate it without admitting that maybe, just maybe, allowing millions of people who are opposed to our cultural values and have very strong beliefs in a stone age religion with backwards ideas was a poor idea.
Like the rest of the establishment you might get a scintilla of realisation from time to time but the fear of what you've allowed to happen will mean you will push that realisation aside and continue as if it's not happening and pretend to yourself that we're wrong and you're right. You're not, and you know it, I know it but you will never admit it.
Don't group the left into one homogeneous group. If you're concerned about "cancel culture", it's much more pernicious on this side of the spectrum because if you're campaigning on a particular issue (for me, various environmental stuff and active travel), you often get co-opted into other views which you don't actually hold. It's very awkward.
I basically agree with with what a lot of you guys are saying, but I'm naturally suspicious of your motivations. I really need a rock-solid, and very brave, lefty to put their head above the parapet.
I also note that rise in extremist views among young Muslim men mirrors that of white menelsewhere in Europe. Perhaps this the same phenomenon, and it's ultimately not based on religion.
My motivations are very simply and I've been open about them for a long time. Islam isn't compatible with western culture, some Muslims are and are secular but they are not the majority. In every major piece of research a huge majority of Muslims across western countries believe that violence is justified against people who blaspheme against Islam. That to me means Islam isn't compatible with our core value of free expression of ideas, you can't have free expression if people are afraid that they'll be stabbed if they speak out against Islamic ideas and that to me is a step too far.
I understand why you have scepticism but for me Islam is a religion that is never going to have a "reformation", the idea is antithetical to the religion and in the UK as you note, younger generations are more conservative than their parents and grandparents who lived under Islamic rule and escaped from it, but their kids have been fed a diet of poison in foreign funded mosques and on social media so they've become more militant and less likely to identify with British culture and more likely to hate those values and the people who follow them.
I was listening to an old Rest is History episode yesterday and they skated over something involving Islam, being quite open that they were worried about the response. Before rightly piling in on some of the a-historical stuff in other religions.
Not good.
I know Tom Holland. Very sound chap. He is aware of the inadequacy of all this
He got a lot of abuse when he attempted to historicise Islam.
COP29, which started badly with plenty of no shows, is now on the verge of a complete breakdown, and that's on top of the Commonwealth hustle and FUBAR last month:
If they are, and I fear they may well be, then our descendants are basically fucked. The high point of international cooperation has been and gone, and the future is one of nationalist insanity and environmental destruction.
Darwin got it all wrong. We're regressing.
Evolution is not teleological. Darwin never said it always means "progress or improvement"
Yes, things can zig zag. I know that.
Anyway, as I now keep saying to all and sundry, Left Populism is coming. A radical economic offer for the struggling classes without the tacky xenophobic nostalgia that defines the right wing version.
It won't get funded by billionaires (for obvious reasons) but that won't matter once it gets rolling. I'm in. ✊️🕺
(please refrain from the very tedious "lol" if you choose to reply, which you shouldn't feel you have to)
I have seen you suggest this a couple of times and I don't really get it. Left populism would be an utter disaster for all of us (see Venezuela for an obvious example).
Populism is the enemy of progress, both of the left and right variety, and I think of you as a progressive. What's going on?
I mean a politics that shifts wealth and opportunity in favour of those who are in most need without corruption or financial recklessness or xenophobic obsession with borders and immigration. Nothing like Venezuela.
What do you honestly think will happen if Britain becomes, say, 30% Muslim? Or 40%? Think about it, and be honest
At 50-60% we could even get Sharia law
I'm not aware of any large country where that has happened in modern times, though there are certain small examples. There are majoritarian Muslim smaller countries in Europe - Albania, B&H, Kosovo. I'm not sure of the status of Sharia Law in those.
Same sex marriage and civil unions are certainly illegal in Albania, same sex marriage is not legal in Kosovo or Bosnia either so even if not full Sharia LGBT rights would likely regress
LGBT rights are also limited in Serbia, Bulgaria and Romania, which are all largely Christian, so is it Islam in Albania, Bosnia and Kosovo, or something about those countries being in the Balkans?
Slovenia is in the Balkans and has same sex marriage and Croatia has civil unions. No Muslim majority nation has same sex marriage.
Women are also discouraged from working with men in the same workplaces in Islam
Slovenia and Croatia are more western looking. I referred you already to Serbia, Bulgaria and Romania. You can also add North Macedonia. Moldova, Ukraine and eastwards also have no recognition of same sex marriages. Rights are limited in Slovakia, Poland and Lithuania. The dividing line in Europe is clearly not Muslim/non-Muslim.
Not a single Muslim majority nation on earth has same sex marriage, same sex unions or a female head of state or government.
The dividing line globally is clearly Muslim/non Muslim
Not a single Hindu, Jewish, Shinto or Daoist majority country has same sex marriage. Same sex marriage is largely confined to Western Europe and the Americas, with a few exceptions.
Taiwan has same sex marriage now. Israel has cohabitation rights for same sex couples. Even several Indian states give same sex couples cohabitation rights. India and Israel have also had female PMs and India a female head of state
Taiwan is not a Hindu, Jewish, Shinto or Daoist majority country, so it doesn’t disprove what I said. However, I was not aware of that welcome change in Taiwan. Thanks for bringing it to my attention.
As I said, Israel and India do not have same sex marriage.
There are several Muslim countries that have had female heads of state as well, like Bangladesh, Pakistan, Indonesia, Mali, Senegal, Kyrgyzstan and Tunisia.
Israel recognises same sex civil unions and they are now protected by a supreme court ruling. My wife's cousin had a lesbian civil union ceremony performed over a video link in Tel Aviv a year or so ago before the war started. It's convoluted but Israel basically has gay marriage, or at least gay people in Israel are able to have all the same rights as straight people.
COP29, which started badly with plenty of no shows, is now on the verge of a complete breakdown, and that's on top of the Commonwealth hustle and FUBAR last month:
If they are, and I fear they may well be, then our descendants are basically fucked. The high point of international cooperation has been and gone, and the future is one of nationalist insanity and environmental destruction.
Darwin got it all wrong. We're regressing.
Evolution is not teleological. Darwin never said it always means "progress or improvement"
Yes, things can zig zag. I know that.
Anyway, as I now keep saying to all and sundry, Left Populism is coming. A radical economic offer for the struggling classes without the tacky xenophobic nostalgia that defines the right wing version.
It won't get funded by billionaires (for obvious reasons) but that won't matter once it gets rolling. I'm in. ✊️🕺
(please refrain from the very tedious "lol" if you choose to reply, which you shouldn't feel you have to)
I have seen you suggest this a couple of times and I don't really get it. Left populism would be an utter disaster for all of us (see Venezuela for an obvious example).
Populism is the enemy of progress, both of the left and right variety, and I think of you as a progressive. What's going on?
I mean a politics that shifts wealth and opportunity in favour of those who are in most need without corruption or financial recklessness or xenophobic obsession with borders and immigration. Nothing like Venezuela.
What do you honestly think will happen if Britain becomes, say, 30% Muslim? Or 40%? Think about it, and be honest
At 50-60% we could even get Sharia law
I'm not aware of any large country where that has happened in modern times, though there are certain small examples. There are majoritarian Muslim smaller countries in Europe - Albania, B&H, Kosovo. I'm not sure of the status of Sharia Law in those.
Same sex marriage and civil unions are certainly illegal in Albania, same sex marriage is not legal in Kosovo or Bosnia either so even if not full Sharia LGBT rights would likely regress
LGBT rights are also limited in Serbia, Bulgaria and Romania, which are all largely Christian, so is it Islam in Albania, Bosnia and Kosovo, or something about those countries being in the Balkans?
Slovenia is in the Balkans and has same sex marriage and Croatia has civil unions. No Muslim majority nation has same sex marriage.
Women are also discouraged from working with men in the same workplaces in Islam
Slovenia and Croatia are more western looking. I referred you already to Serbia, Bulgaria and Romania. You can also add North Macedonia. Moldova, Ukraine and eastwards also have no recognition of same sex marriages. Rights are limited in Slovakia, Poland and Lithuania. The dividing line in Europe is clearly not Muslim/non-Muslim.
Not a single Muslim majority nation on earth has same sex marriage, same sex unions or a female head of state or government.
The dividing line globally is clearly Muslim/non Muslim
Not a single Hindu, Jewish, Shinto or Daoist majority country has same sex marriage. Same sex marriage is largely confined to Western Europe and the Americas, with a few exceptions.
Taiwan has same sex marriage now. Israel has cohabitation rights for same sex couples. Even several Indian states give same sex couples cohabitation rights. India and Israel have also had female PMs and India a female head of state
Taiwan is not a Hindu, Jewish, Shinto or Daoist majority country, so it doesn’t disprove what I said. However, I was not aware of that welcome change in Taiwan. Thanks for bringing it to my attention.
As I said, Israel and India do not have same sex marriage.
There are several Muslim countries that have had female heads of state as well, like Bangladesh, Pakistan, Indonesia, Mali, Senegal, Kyrgyzstan and Tunisia.
Israel recognises same sex civil unions and they are now protected by a supreme court ruling. My wife's cousin had a lesbian civil union ceremony performed over a video link in Tel Aviv a year or so ago before the war started. It's convoluted but Israel basically has gay marriage, or at least gay people in Israel are able to have all the same rights as straight people.
Indeed
And yet.... Queers for Palestine. And waving Hamas, Houthi and Hezbollah symbols and flags, despite the fact Hamas would slaughter them in short order
COP29, which started badly with plenty of no shows, is now on the verge of a complete breakdown, and that's on top of the Commonwealth hustle and FUBAR last month:
If they are, and I fear they may well be, then our descendants are basically fucked. The high point of international cooperation has been and gone, and the future is one of nationalist insanity and environmental destruction.
Darwin got it all wrong. We're regressing.
Evolution is not teleological. Darwin never said it always means "progress or improvement"
Yes, things can zig zag. I know that.
Anyway, as I now keep saying to all and sundry, Left Populism is coming. A radical economic offer for the struggling classes without the tacky xenophobic nostalgia that defines the right wing version.
It won't get funded by billionaires (for obvious reasons) but that won't matter once it gets rolling. I'm in. ✊️🕺
(please refrain from the very tedious "lol" if you choose to reply, which you shouldn't feel you have to)
I have seen you suggest this a couple of times and I don't really get it. Left populism would be an utter disaster for all of us (see Venezuela for an obvious example).
Populism is the enemy of progress, both of the left and right variety, and I think of you as a progressive. What's going on?
I mean a politics that shifts wealth and opportunity in favour of those who are in most need without corruption or financial recklessness or xenophobic obsession with borders and immigration. Nothing like Venezuela.
What do you honestly think will happen if Britain becomes, say, 30% Muslim? Or 40%? Think about it, and be honest
At 50-60% we could even get Sharia law
Um… who was saying they haven’t seen much evidence of Great Replacement Theory cropping up on PB?
What's the difference between a conspiracy theory and a projection of current trends?
From the 2001 to the 2021 census, Islam went from 2.7% to 5.97%, so that’s an increase of 3.27%, or 0.16% per year. If we project that trend forward, the UK will reach 50% Muslim in 269 more years. That is, in 2290. I think it unlikely any trend would actually continue for over two and a half centuries.
That’s the difference between a conspiracy theory and a projection of current trends.
That is pretty poor analysis from someone who has told us (s)he's an FRSS (Fellow of the Royal Statistical Society). Your assumption of linear growth in the proportion is obviously incorrect - what happens when you hit 100%? A better model (not the only one possible) takes the finite limit into account by using log-odds rather than proportions In 2001 log-odds = ln(0.027/(1-0.027)) ≈ -3.58 In 2021 log-odds = ln(0.0597/(1-0.0597)) ≈ -2.75 -> an increase of 0.83 over 20 years, i.e. about 0.0415 per year on the log-odds scale. If you want to project this forwards then the future proportion = 1/(1 + e^(-log-odds)) So to get to 50% Muslim, the log-odds would be ln(0.5/0.5) = 0 Starting from 2021's log-odds of -2.75, increasing by 0.0415 per year: we get Number of years = (0 - (-2.75))/0.0415 ≈ 66.3 years, i.e. in 2087
COP29, which started badly with plenty of no shows, is now on the verge of a complete breakdown, and that's on top of the Commonwealth hustle and FUBAR last month:
If they are, and I fear they may well be, then our descendants are basically fucked. The high point of international cooperation has been and gone, and the future is one of nationalist insanity and environmental destruction.
Darwin got it all wrong. We're regressing.
Evolution is not teleological. Darwin never said it always means "progress or improvement"
Yes, things can zig zag. I know that.
Anyway, as I now keep saying to all and sundry, Left Populism is coming. A radical economic offer for the struggling classes without the tacky xenophobic nostalgia that defines the right wing version.
It won't get funded by billionaires (for obvious reasons) but that won't matter once it gets rolling. I'm in. ✊️🕺
(please refrain from the very tedious "lol" if you choose to reply, which you shouldn't feel you have to)
I have seen you suggest this a couple of times and I don't really get it. Left populism would be an utter disaster for all of us (see Venezuela for an obvious example).
Populism is the enemy of progress, both of the left and right variety, and I think of you as a progressive. What's going on?
I mean a politics that shifts wealth and opportunity in favour of those who are in most need without corruption or financial recklessness or xenophobic obsession with borders and immigration. Nothing like Venezuela.
What do you honestly think will happen if Britain becomes, say, 30% Muslim? Or 40%? Think about it, and be honest
At 50-60% we could even get Sharia law
Um… who was saying they haven’t seen much evidence of Great Replacement Theory cropping up on PB?
What's the difference between a conspiracy theory and a projection of current trends?
From the 2001 to the 2021 census, Islam went from 2.7% to 5.97%, so that’s an increase of 3.27%, or 0.16% per year. If we project that trend forward, the UK will reach 50% Muslim in 269 more years. That is, in 2290. I think it unlikely any trend would actually continue for over two and a half centuries.
That’s the difference between a conspiracy theory and a projection of current trends.
That is pretty poor analysis from someone who has told us (s)he's an FRSS (Fellow of the Royal Statistical Society). Your assumption of linear growth in the proportion is obviously incorrect - what happens when you hit 100%? A better model (not the only one possible) takes the finite limit into account by using log-odds rather than proportions In 2001 log-odds = ln(0.027/(1-0.027)) ≈ -3.58 In 2021 log-odds = ln(0.0597/(1-0.0597)) ≈ -2.75 -> an increase of 0.83 over 20 years, i.e. about 0.0415 per year on the log-odds scale. If you want to project this forwards then the future proportion = 1/(1 + e^(-log-odds)) So to get to 50% Muslim, the log-odds would be ln(0.5/0.5) = 0 Starting from 2021's log-odds of -2.75, increasing by 0.0415 per year: we get Number of years = (0 - (-2.75))/0.0415 ≈ 66.3 years, i.e. in 2087
Add in that the rate of Muslim immigration has risen in the last few years not gone down. So 2087 is a conservative timeframe, we're looking at the 2060s if nothing changes from today.
COP29, which started badly with plenty of no shows, is now on the verge of a complete breakdown, and that's on top of the Commonwealth hustle and FUBAR last month:
If they are, and I fear they may well be, then our descendants are basically fucked. The high point of international cooperation has been and gone, and the future is one of nationalist insanity and environmental destruction.
Darwin got it all wrong. We're regressing.
Evolution is not teleological. Darwin never said it always means "progress or improvement"
Yes, things can zig zag. I know that.
Anyway, as I now keep saying to all and sundry, Left Populism is coming. A radical economic offer for the struggling classes without the tacky xenophobic nostalgia that defines the right wing version.
It won't get funded by billionaires (for obvious reasons) but that won't matter once it gets rolling. I'm in. ✊️🕺
(please refrain from the very tedious "lol" if you choose to reply, which you shouldn't feel you have to)
I have seen you suggest this a couple of times and I don't really get it. Left populism would be an utter disaster for all of us (see Venezuela for an obvious example).
Populism is the enemy of progress, both of the left and right variety, and I think of you as a progressive. What's going on?
I mean a politics that shifts wealth and opportunity in favour of those who are in most need without corruption or financial recklessness or xenophobic obsession with borders and immigration. Nothing like Venezuela.
What do you honestly think will happen if Britain becomes, say, 30% Muslim? Or 40%? Think about it, and be honest
He can't. He wants to live in his bubble.
We couldn't accept that level and nor could any European country.
I agree, but that means necessarily at some point:
European countries bring in nation- or culture-specific restrictions on Islamic migration, which at the moment is entirely unpalatable to a lot of lefties, or indeed lots of people (and I can see why)
And/or
European countries start restricting displays of Islamic religion as a deterrent. Minarets, burqas, etc. We already see that in France and Switzerland
And/or
European countries start "voluntary deportation" of migrants. Already happening in Sweden
I predict this will all get a lot worse before it gets better
I think restricting and revoking visas and residency for people who don't align to our cultural values is necessary. It's going to upset people but we're allowing the viper into the nest because people are scared to say that vipers aren't good for nests.
Again, to repeat what I have posted many times in the past, we should be looking to Norway for our example here. 300 hours of compulsory language and culture lessons and immigrants don't get to choose where the live. They are assigned a county where they have to settle to avoid the creation of ghettos. It works.
Does it? Even Norway has serious problems. Probably only Denmark is seriously attempting - with success - to address this. Hence the re-election of their social democrat government, which is hard right - to an eye-watering degree by UK standards - on migration, culture, and asylum
Norway has serious problems with right wing biker gangs buring down churches. They don't have any real issues with immigrant populations - certainly nothing to copare with most other European countries.
If you remember this is why I was so convinced - along with you - that the 2011 attacks would turn out to be a right wing nutter rather than a muslim attack.
Norway is mercifully free of terror attacks, and of course Breivik was the worst by far
However of the 13 attacks since the year 2000, 8 or 9 appear to be Muslim/Islamist - ie the majority
BTW; how many deaths were there in these 13 attacks, just to put things in context for us.
Please, take your time.
Suggesting muslims are not over represented in terror/terrorist attacks would be very brave of you.
In my lifetime, by far the largest number of terrorist attacks in the UK were committed by Christians from Northern Ireland. If we look across Europe, then again the numbers are dominated by Christians, from Northern Ireland and the Basque Country.
And when did your life begin?
And do you not understand the concept of proportionality? Until very recently the Muslim population in Europe was minimal.
I was born in the early seventies. I think that’s fairly middling around here?
There has been a Muslim population in the Balkans and European parts of Russia for centuries. The bulk of the Muslim population of Europe is still those groups, with the largest new Muslim population in Europe being in France, a legacy of colonialism, particularly in Algeria.
COP29, which started badly with plenty of no shows, is now on the verge of a complete breakdown, and that's on top of the Commonwealth hustle and FUBAR last month:
If they are, and I fear they may well be, then our descendants are basically fucked. The high point of international cooperation has been and gone, and the future is one of nationalist insanity and environmental destruction.
Darwin got it all wrong. We're regressing.
Evolution is not teleological. Darwin never said it always means "progress or improvement"
Yes, things can zig zag. I know that.
Anyway, as I now keep saying to all and sundry, Left Populism is coming. A radical economic offer for the struggling classes without the tacky xenophobic nostalgia that defines the right wing version.
It won't get funded by billionaires (for obvious reasons) but that won't matter once it gets rolling. I'm in. ✊️🕺
(please refrain from the very tedious "lol" if you choose to reply, which you shouldn't feel you have to)
I have seen you suggest this a couple of times and I don't really get it. Left populism would be an utter disaster for all of us (see Venezuela for an obvious example).
Populism is the enemy of progress, both of the left and right variety, and I think of you as a progressive. What's going on?
I mean a politics that shifts wealth and opportunity in favour of those who are in most need without corruption or financial recklessness or xenophobic obsession with borders and immigration. Nothing like Venezuela.
What do you honestly think will happen if Britain becomes, say, 30% Muslim? Or 40%? Think about it, and be honest
At 50-60% we could even get Sharia law
I'm not aware of any large country where that has happened in modern times, though there are certain small examples. There are majoritarian Muslim smaller countries in Europe - Albania, B&H, Kosovo. I'm not sure of the status of Sharia Law in those.
Same sex marriage and civil unions are certainly illegal in Albania, same sex marriage is not legal in Kosovo or Bosnia either so even if not full Sharia LGBT rights would likely regress
LGBT rights are also limited in Serbia, Bulgaria and Romania, which are all largely Christian, so is it Islam in Albania, Bosnia and Kosovo, or something about those countries being in the Balkans?
Slovenia is in the Balkans and has same sex marriage and Croatia has civil unions. No Muslim majority nation has same sex marriage.
Women are also discouraged from working with men in the same workplaces in Islam
Slovenia and Croatia are more western looking. I referred you already to Serbia, Bulgaria and Romania. You can also add North Macedonia. Moldova, Ukraine and eastwards also have no recognition of same sex marriages. Rights are limited in Slovakia, Poland and Lithuania. The dividing line in Europe is clearly not Muslim/non-Muslim.
Not a single Muslim majority nation on earth has same sex marriage, same sex unions or a female head of state or government.
The dividing line globally is clearly Muslim/non Muslim
Not a single Hindu, Jewish, Shinto or Daoist majority country has same sex marriage. Same sex marriage is largely confined to Western Europe and the Americas, with a few exceptions.
Taiwan has same sex marriage now. Israel has cohabitation rights for same sex couples. Even several Indian states give same sex couples cohabitation rights. India and Israel have also had female PMs and India a female head of state
Taiwan is not a Hindu, Jewish, Shinto or Daoist majority country, so it doesn’t disprove what I said. However, I was not aware of that welcome change in Taiwan. Thanks for bringing it to my attention.
As I said, Israel and India do not have same sex marriage.
There are several Muslim countries that have had female heads of state as well, like Bangladesh, Pakistan, Indonesia, Mali, Senegal, Kyrgyzstan and Tunisia.
Israel recognises same sex civil unions and they are now protected by a supreme court ruling. My wife's cousin had a lesbian civil union ceremony performed over a video link in Tel Aviv a year or so ago before the war started. It's convoluted but Israel basically has gay marriage, or at least gay people in Israel are able to have all the same rights as straight people.
Indeed
And yet.... Queers for Palestine. And waving Hamas, Houthi and Hezbollah symbols and flags, despite the fact Hamas would slaughter them in short order
The galaxies weep
It's just ridiculous, another think that bothers me is that he mentions "Hindu, Jewish and Shinto" countries but that's literally just India, Israel and Japan. Each of those religions get one bite at the cherry because there are no other Hindu, Jewish or Shinto countries in the world. Islam, otoh, has got the whole middle east, a big chunk of South Asia, huge parts of Africa and a small part of Europe where they are the majority and not a single country has legalised gay marriage or given gay people the same rights as straight people. There's no equivalence there between them and yet that's the kind of comparison he needs to make so that Islam seems reasonable.
COP29, which started badly with plenty of no shows, is now on the verge of a complete breakdown, and that's on top of the Commonwealth hustle and FUBAR last month:
If they are, and I fear they may well be, then our descendants are basically fucked. The high point of international cooperation has been and gone, and the future is one of nationalist insanity and environmental destruction.
Darwin got it all wrong. We're regressing.
Evolution is not teleological. Darwin never said it always means "progress or improvement"
Yes, things can zig zag. I know that.
Anyway, as I now keep saying to all and sundry, Left Populism is coming. A radical economic offer for the struggling classes without the tacky xenophobic nostalgia that defines the right wing version.
It won't get funded by billionaires (for obvious reasons) but that won't matter once it gets rolling. I'm in. ✊️🕺
(please refrain from the very tedious "lol" if you choose to reply, which you shouldn't feel you have to)
I have seen you suggest this a couple of times and I don't really get it. Left populism would be an utter disaster for all of us (see Venezuela for an obvious example).
Populism is the enemy of progress, both of the left and right variety, and I think of you as a progressive. What's going on?
I mean a politics that shifts wealth and opportunity in favour of those who are in most need without corruption or financial recklessness or xenophobic obsession with borders and immigration. Nothing like Venezuela.
What do you honestly think will happen if Britain becomes, say, 30% Muslim? Or 40%? Think about it, and be honest
At 50-60% we could even get Sharia law
I'm not aware of any large country where that has happened in modern times, though there are certain small examples. There are majoritarian Muslim smaller countries in Europe - Albania, B&H, Kosovo. I'm not sure of the status of Sharia Law in those.
Same sex marriage and civil unions are certainly illegal in Albania, same sex marriage is not legal in Kosovo or Bosnia either so even if not full Sharia LGBT rights would likely regress
LGBT rights are also limited in Serbia, Bulgaria and Romania, which are all largely Christian, so is it Islam in Albania, Bosnia and Kosovo, or something about those countries being in the Balkans?
Slovenia is in the Balkans and has same sex marriage and Croatia has civil unions. No Muslim majority nation has same sex marriage.
Women are also discouraged from working with men in the same workplaces in Islam
Slovenia and Croatia are more western looking. I referred you already to Serbia, Bulgaria and Romania. You can also add North Macedonia. Moldova, Ukraine and eastwards also have no recognition of same sex marriages. Rights are limited in Slovakia, Poland and Lithuania. The dividing line in Europe is clearly not Muslim/non-Muslim.
Not a single Muslim majority nation on earth has same sex marriage, same sex unions or a female head of state or government.
The dividing line globally is clearly Muslim/non Muslim
Not a single Hindu, Jewish, Shinto or Daoist majority country has same sex marriage. Same sex marriage is largely confined to Western Europe and the Americas, with a few exceptions.
Taiwan has same sex marriage now. Israel has cohabitation rights for same sex couples. Even several Indian states give same sex couples cohabitation rights. India and Israel have also had female PMs and India a female head of state
Taiwan is not a Hindu, Jewish, Shinto or Daoist majority country, so it doesn’t disprove what I said. However, I was not aware of that welcome change in Taiwan. Thanks for bringing it to my attention.
As I said, Israel and India do not have same sex marriage.
There are several Muslim countries that have had female heads of state as well, like Bangladesh, Pakistan, Indonesia, Mali, Senegal, Kyrgyzstan and Tunisia.
Israel recognises same sex civil unions and they are now protected by a supreme court ruling. My wife's cousin had a lesbian civil union ceremony performed over a video link in Tel Aviv a year or so ago before the war started. It's convoluted but Israel basically has gay marriage, or at least gay people in Israel are able to have all the same rights as straight people.
Indeed
And yet.... Queers for Palestine. And waving Hamas, Houthi and Hezbollah symbols and flags, despite the fact Hamas would slaughter them in short order
The galaxies weep
because there are no other Hindu countries in the world.
COP29, which started badly with plenty of no shows, is now on the verge of a complete breakdown, and that's on top of the Commonwealth hustle and FUBAR last month:
If they are, and I fear they may well be, then our descendants are basically fucked. The high point of international cooperation has been and gone, and the future is one of nationalist insanity and environmental destruction.
Darwin got it all wrong. We're regressing.
Evolution is not teleological. Darwin never said it always means "progress or improvement"
Yes, things can zig zag. I know that.
Anyway, as I now keep saying to all and sundry, Left Populism is coming. A radical economic offer for the struggling classes without the tacky xenophobic nostalgia that defines the right wing version.
It won't get funded by billionaires (for obvious reasons) but that won't matter once it gets rolling. I'm in. ✊️🕺
(please refrain from the very tedious "lol" if you choose to reply, which you shouldn't feel you have to)
I have seen you suggest this a couple of times and I don't really get it. Left populism would be an utter disaster for all of us (see Venezuela for an obvious example).
Populism is the enemy of progress, both of the left and right variety, and I think of you as a progressive. What's going on?
I mean a politics that shifts wealth and opportunity in favour of those who are in most need without corruption or financial recklessness or xenophobic obsession with borders and immigration. Nothing like Venezuela.
What do you honestly think will happen if Britain becomes, say, 30% Muslim? Or 40%? Think about it, and be honest
He can't. He wants to live in his bubble.
We couldn't accept that level and nor could any European country.
I agree, but that means necessarily at some point:
European countries bring in nation- or culture-specific restrictions on Islamic migration, which at the moment is entirely unpalatable to a lot of lefties, or indeed lots of people (and I can see why)
And/or
European countries start restricting displays of Islamic religion as a deterrent. Minarets, burqas, etc. We already see that in France and Switzerland
And/or
European countries start "voluntary deportation" of migrants. Already happening in Sweden
I predict this will all get a lot worse before it gets better
I think restricting and revoking visas and residency for people who don't align to our cultural values is necessary. It's going to upset people but we're allowing the viper into the nest because people are scared to say that vipers aren't good for nests.
Again, to repeat what I have posted many times in the past, we should be looking to Norway for our example here. 300 hours of compulsory language and culture lessons and immigrants don't get to choose where the live. They are assigned a county where they have to settle to avoid the creation of ghettos. It works.
Does it? Even Norway has serious problems. Probably only Denmark is seriously attempting - with success - to address this. Hence the re-election of their social democrat government, which is hard right - to an eye-watering degree by UK standards - on migration, culture, and asylum
Norway has serious problems with right wing biker gangs buring down churches. They don't have any real issues with immigrant populations - certainly nothing to copare with most other European countries.
If you remember this is why I was so convinced - along with you - that the 2011 attacks would turn out to be a right wing nutter rather than a muslim attack.
Norway is mercifully free of terror attacks, and of course Breivik was the worst by far
However of the 13 attacks since the year 2000, 8 or 9 appear to be Muslim/Islamist - ie the majority
BTW; how many deaths were there in these 13 attacks, just to put things in context for us.
Please, take your time.
Suggesting muslims are not over represented in terror/terrorist attacks would be very brave of you.
In my lifetime, by far the largest number of terrorist attacks in the UK were committed by Christians from Northern Ireland. If we look across Europe, then again the numbers are dominated by Christians, from Northern Ireland and the Basque Country.
Yep, the Christmas festivals of Europe are barricaded by concrete blocks and police with submachine guns because we are all scared of mass death caused by white Christian men from Biarritz and Bilbao
This isn't your best day on PB, is it?
It's laughable but the worrying thing is that he gives us an insight into how the civil service thinks and the establishment view and why nothing changes. It's the kind of stuff that makes me want to go and vote for Nigel Farage and hope he tears down the whole lot and starts again. Get rid of these commissars once and for all. Then I remember that Reform are bunch of ***** so can't bring myself to do and hope that my (others) brand of reason and logic will win the day within the Tory party.
Look at it this way - the one episode of widespread violence we have experienced under this new government was from the far-right, and some of the very PBers who are so concerned about Muslims in the UK are those that spouted all the two-tier nonsense when it came to convictions and sentencing for inciting violence.
While there is a deep concern about the views of young Muslim men, there is a barely suppressed glee about the rise of similar views among young "Christian" men. There are your tiers, and why it is difficult to take these kind of views seriously.
COP29, which started badly with plenty of no shows, is now on the verge of a complete breakdown, and that's on top of the Commonwealth hustle and FUBAR last month:
If they are, and I fear they may well be, then our descendants are basically fucked. The high point of international cooperation has been and gone, and the future is one of nationalist insanity and environmental destruction.
Darwin got it all wrong. We're regressing.
Evolution is not teleological. Darwin never said it always means "progress or improvement"
Yes, things can zig zag. I know that.
Anyway, as I now keep saying to all and sundry, Left Populism is coming. A radical economic offer for the struggling classes without the tacky xenophobic nostalgia that defines the right wing version.
It won't get funded by billionaires (for obvious reasons) but that won't matter once it gets rolling. I'm in. ✊️🕺
(please refrain from the very tedious "lol" if you choose to reply, which you shouldn't feel you have to)
I have seen you suggest this a couple of times and I don't really get it. Left populism would be an utter disaster for all of us (see Venezuela for an obvious example).
Populism is the enemy of progress, both of the left and right variety, and I think of you as a progressive. What's going on?
I mean a politics that shifts wealth and opportunity in favour of those who are in most need without corruption or financial recklessness or xenophobic obsession with borders and immigration. Nothing like Venezuela.
What do you honestly think will happen if Britain becomes, say, 30% Muslim? Or 40%? Think about it, and be honest
At 50-60% we could even get Sharia law
I'm not aware of any large country where that has happened in modern times, though there are certain small examples. There are majoritarian Muslim smaller countries in Europe - Albania, B&H, Kosovo. I'm not sure of the status of Sharia Law in those.
Same sex marriage and civil unions are certainly illegal in Albania, same sex marriage is not legal in Kosovo or Bosnia either so even if not full Sharia LGBT rights would likely regress
LGBT rights are also limited in Serbia, Bulgaria and Romania, which are all largely Christian, so is it Islam in Albania, Bosnia and Kosovo, or something about those countries being in the Balkans?
Slovenia is in the Balkans and has same sex marriage and Croatia has civil unions. No Muslim majority nation has same sex marriage.
Women are also discouraged from working with men in the same workplaces in Islam
Slovenia and Croatia are more western looking. I referred you already to Serbia, Bulgaria and Romania. You can also add North Macedonia. Moldova, Ukraine and eastwards also have no recognition of same sex marriages. Rights are limited in Slovakia, Poland and Lithuania. The dividing line in Europe is clearly not Muslim/non-Muslim.
Not a single Muslim majority nation on earth has same sex marriage, same sex unions or a female head of state or government.
The dividing line globally is clearly Muslim/non Muslim
Not a single Hindu, Jewish, Shinto or Daoist majority country has same sex marriage. Same sex marriage is largely confined to Western Europe and the Americas, with a few exceptions.
Taiwan has same sex marriage now. Israel has cohabitation rights for same sex couples. Even several Indian states give same sex couples cohabitation rights. India and Israel have also had female PMs and India a female head of state
Taiwan is not a Hindu, Jewish, Shinto or Daoist majority country, so it doesn’t disprove what I said. However, I was not aware of that welcome change in Taiwan. Thanks for bringing it to my attention.
As I said, Israel and India do not have same sex marriage.
There are several Muslim countries that have had female heads of state as well, like Bangladesh, Pakistan, Indonesia, Mali, Senegal, Kyrgyzstan and Tunisia.
Israel recognises same sex civil unions and they are now protected by a supreme court ruling. My wife's cousin had a lesbian civil union ceremony performed over a video link in Tel Aviv a year or so ago before the war started. It's convoluted but Israel basically has gay marriage, or at least gay people in Israel are able to have all the same rights as straight people.
COP29, which started badly with plenty of no shows, is now on the verge of a complete breakdown, and that's on top of the Commonwealth hustle and FUBAR last month:
If they are, and I fear they may well be, then our descendants are basically fucked. The high point of international cooperation has been and gone, and the future is one of nationalist insanity and environmental destruction.
Darwin got it all wrong. We're regressing.
Evolution is not teleological. Darwin never said it always means "progress or improvement"
Yes, things can zig zag. I know that.
Anyway, as I now keep saying to all and sundry, Left Populism is coming. A radical economic offer for the struggling classes without the tacky xenophobic nostalgia that defines the right wing version.
It won't get funded by billionaires (for obvious reasons) but that won't matter once it gets rolling. I'm in. ✊️🕺
(please refrain from the very tedious "lol" if you choose to reply, which you shouldn't feel you have to)
I have seen you suggest this a couple of times and I don't really get it. Left populism would be an utter disaster for all of us (see Venezuela for an obvious example).
Populism is the enemy of progress, both of the left and right variety, and I think of you as a progressive. What's going on?
I mean a politics that shifts wealth and opportunity in favour of those who are in most need without corruption or financial recklessness or xenophobic obsession with borders and immigration. Nothing like Venezuela.
What do you honestly think will happen if Britain becomes, say, 30% Muslim? Or 40%? Think about it, and be honest
At 50-60% we could even get Sharia law
Um… who was saying they haven’t seen much evidence of Great Replacement Theory cropping up on PB?
What's the difference between a conspiracy theory and a projection of current trends?
From the 2001 to the 2021 census, Islam went from 2.7% to 5.97%, so that’s an increase of 3.27%, or 0.16% per year. If we project that trend forward, the UK will reach 50% Muslim in 269 more years. That is, in 2290. I think it unlikely any trend would actually continue for over two and a half centuries.
That’s the difference between a conspiracy theory and a projection of current trends.
That is pretty poor analysis from someone who has told us (s)he's an FRSS (Fellow of the Royal Statistical Society). Your assumption of linear growth in the proportion is obviously incorrect - what happens when you hit 100%? A better model (not the only one possible) takes the finite limit into account by using log-odds rather than proportions In 2001 log-odds = ln(0.027/(1-0.027)) ≈ -3.58 In 2021 log-odds = ln(0.0597/(1-0.0597)) ≈ -2.75 -> an increase of 0.83 over 20 years, i.e. about 0.0415 per year on the log-odds scale. If you want to project this forwards then the future proportion = 1/(1 + e^(-log-odds)) So to get to 50% Muslim, the log-odds would be ln(0.5/0.5) = 0 Starting from 2021's log-odds of -2.75, increasing by 0.0415 per year: we get Number of years = (0 - (-2.75))/0.0415 ≈ 66.3 years, i.e. in 2087
Add in that the rate of Muslim immigration has risen in the last few years not gone down. So 2087 is a conservative timeframe, we're looking at the 2060s if nothing changes from today.
Moreover, as soon as Muslims caucus as a religious voting group (as is entirely their right in a democracy, and as now seems to be happening in the UK) then they can quickly alter the political complexion of that society long before they reach 50% of the entire population
At just 15-20% of the electorate, if a Muslim minority votes en masse for a "Muslim party" that entirely changes British politics. Any new govenrment would have to take into account their views, and indeed enact some of their policies/attitudes
We can see what UKIP did to Britain with similar numbers, they basically got Brexit
So if I was gay, or indeed female, I would be scared of a Muslim population exceeding 15%, let alone 50%. That's democracy
At that point, all you have left is the pious hope that 2nd 3rd and 4th generation Muslims become less Muslim. But that does not seem to be happening, indeed the opposite. So this is not something to worry about in 40 years, it is something to worry about in 10-20 years, if not sooner
The whole terrorism / Islam thing is like the violence / men thing. Except the two teams in the culture war league take opposing sides. Which makes for splendid opportunities for symmetrical hypocrisy theory.
Lefty: “you bang on about how generalising that men are all violent rapists and misogynists leads to the far right. But look at the stats: how many violent murders or sexual attacks are committed by women?”
Righty: “you blather on about how we shouldn’t condemn an entire religion because of the actions of its extremists, but are we all barricading our sports events because of a fear of Jehovah’s witnesses?”
The whole terrorism / Islam thing is like the violence / men thing. Except the two teams in the culture war league take opposing sides. Which makes for splendid opportunities for symmetrical hypocrisy theory.
Lefty: “you bang on about how generalising that men are all violent rapists and misogynists leads to the far right. But look at the stats: how many violent murders or sexual attacks are committed by women?”
Righty: “you blather on about how we shouldn’t condemn an entire religion because of the actions of its extremists, but are we all barricading our sports events because of a fear of Jehovah’s witnesses?”
COP29, which started badly with plenty of no shows, is now on the verge of a complete breakdown, and that's on top of the Commonwealth hustle and FUBAR last month:
If they are, and I fear they may well be, then our descendants are basically fucked. The high point of international cooperation has been and gone, and the future is one of nationalist insanity and environmental destruction.
Darwin got it all wrong. We're regressing.
Evolution is not teleological. Darwin never said it always means "progress or improvement"
Yes, things can zig zag. I know that.
Anyway, as I now keep saying to all and sundry, Left Populism is coming. A radical economic offer for the struggling classes without the tacky xenophobic nostalgia that defines the right wing version.
It won't get funded by billionaires (for obvious reasons) but that won't matter once it gets rolling. I'm in. ✊️🕺
(please refrain from the very tedious "lol" if you choose to reply, which you shouldn't feel you have to)
I have seen you suggest this a couple of times and I don't really get it. Left populism would be an utter disaster for all of us (see Venezuela for an obvious example).
Populism is the enemy of progress, both of the left and right variety, and I think of you as a progressive. What's going on?
@kinabalu is in despair that Starmer's Labour are so obviously shite. And that Trump has won
I can sympathise, it's a nasty double blow
I even think Labour would be doing slightly better with Rayner as leader now than Starmer, at least she has a modicum of charisma unlike him and can empathise.
At the moment Starmer and Reeves are despised by the white working class who are increasingly voting Reform, especially after large numbers of them were jailed for their tweets. The middle class private sector workers who are voting Tory or LD, farmers and small businesspeople who are voting Tory and Reform over Labour's tax rises hate him now too and pensioners who are voting Tory still absolutely loathe Sir Keir after he cut their WFA.
Even the public sector, student and non white vote is only largely still voting Labour out of tribal loyalty (with some leakage of the former to the Greens), not because they really like Starmer, most of them even preferred Jezza to him
Large numbers of WWC were jailed for Tweets were they?
Really, how large a number. Hundreds of thousands? Millions.
You really are absurd sometimes.
Yes as a percentage most of those jailed, which was well into the thousands, were white working class.
Hence Reform is eating further into the white working class ex Labour vote
There were not thousands of people jailed for Tweets.
Nor hundreds. Nor, I suspect, 10s. I'd guess between 5 and 10.
I normally give HYUFD the benefit of the doubt, but to say "large numbers of them (the white working class) were jailed for tweets", as he did, is talking out of his preposterous backside.
Rubbish, more and more are and we have not even reached half the arrests or anywhere near at court yet
Find me a source: number of people jailed for tweets = ? Bet you can't make it add up to more than 20.
It's such hyperbolic nonsense.
In 2023 over 3000 were arrested for social media offences a large number of whom were jailed, this year will be significantly higher than that. Even in Russia in 2023 only 400 were arrested for social media offences
It does explain the bullshit you're spouting, but there was no source there.
Of course, she is a former banker and author and he is a journalist who has been on QT regularly on the BBC
LOL.
So now anyone who has been on QT is "objective"?
I think those who go on QT typically do because they're precisely the opposite. Objective people (a) don't exist and (b) would not be interesting if they did.
For the record, I have no idea how many people were arrested in the UK, or in Russia, in 2023 for posts on social media. Not a clue.
But since it appears that you do have an idea, as clearly you disagree with HYUFD's source on the matter, how many people do you think were arrested in the UK in 2023 for things they said on social media, and how many in Russia?
I have no idea either, but nor will I regurgitate any old bullshit I see online as if it is the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth.
Without any independent corroborating data, as well as information as to how it is defined and formed, I will simply disregard the claim as either misleading, bullshit or irrelevant.
The whole terrorism / Islam thing is like the violence / men thing. Except the two teams in the culture war league take opposing sides. Which makes for splendid opportunities for symmetrical hypocrisy theory.
Lefty: “you bang on about how generalising that men are all violent rapists and misogynists leads to the far right. But look at the stats: how many violent murders or sexual attacks are committed by women?”
Righty: “you blather on about how we shouldn’t condemn an entire religion because of the actions of its extremists, but are we all barricading our sports events because of a fear of Jehovah’s witnesses?”
COP29, which started badly with plenty of no shows, is now on the verge of a complete breakdown, and that's on top of the Commonwealth hustle and FUBAR last month:
If they are, and I fear they may well be, then our descendants are basically fucked. The high point of international cooperation has been and gone, and the future is one of nationalist insanity and environmental destruction.
Darwin got it all wrong. We're regressing.
Evolution is not teleological. Darwin never said it always means "progress or improvement"
Yes, things can zig zag. I know that.
Anyway, as I now keep saying to all and sundry, Left Populism is coming. A radical economic offer for the struggling classes without the tacky xenophobic nostalgia that defines the right wing version.
It won't get funded by billionaires (for obvious reasons) but that won't matter once it gets rolling. I'm in. ✊️🕺
(please refrain from the very tedious "lol" if you choose to reply, which you shouldn't feel you have to)
I have seen you suggest this a couple of times and I don't really get it. Left populism would be an utter disaster for all of us (see Venezuela for an obvious example).
Populism is the enemy of progress, both of the left and right variety, and I think of you as a progressive. What's going on?
I mean a politics that shifts wealth and opportunity in favour of those who are in most need without corruption or financial recklessness or xenophobic obsession with borders and immigration. Nothing like Venezuela.
What do you honestly think will happen if Britain becomes, say, 30% Muslim? Or 40%? Think about it, and be honest
At 50-60% we could even get Sharia law
I'm not aware of any large country where that has happened in modern times, though there are certain small examples. There are majoritarian Muslim smaller countries in Europe - Albania, B&H, Kosovo. I'm not sure of the status of Sharia Law in those.
Same sex marriage and civil unions are certainly illegal in Albania, same sex marriage is not legal in Kosovo or Bosnia either so even if not full Sharia LGBT rights would likely regress
LGBT rights are also limited in Serbia, Bulgaria and Romania, which are all largely Christian, so is it Islam in Albania, Bosnia and Kosovo, or something about those countries being in the Balkans?
Slovenia is in the Balkans and has same sex marriage and Croatia has civil unions. No Muslim majority nation has same sex marriage.
Women are also discouraged from working with men in the same workplaces in Islam
Slovenia and Croatia are more western looking. I referred you already to Serbia, Bulgaria and Romania. You can also add North Macedonia. Moldova, Ukraine and eastwards also have no recognition of same sex marriages. Rights are limited in Slovakia, Poland and Lithuania. The dividing line in Europe is clearly not Muslim/non-Muslim.
Not a single Muslim majority nation on earth has same sex marriage, same sex unions or a female head of state or government.
The dividing line globally is clearly Muslim/non Muslim
Not a single Hindu, Jewish, Shinto or Daoist majority country has same sex marriage. Same sex marriage is largely confined to Western Europe and the Americas, with a few exceptions.
What in the name of holy Christological fuck is a "Shinto-majority country"?
The nonsense "non-racist" way of saying East Asian countries.
No. Shinto is largely confined to Japan. Japan is the only Shinto-majority country in the world.
East Asia is religiously diverse, but Buddhism is probably commonest. Most Buddhist-majority countries don’t have same sex marriage either… but one does! Thailand.
I'm sure you'd do well on Mastermind but on the core issue of the clash between Islam and the west, it appears you have nothing to say.
I think talking about a clash between Islam and the West is simplistic nonsense. What’s the biggest conflict in the world right now? Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Not Islam v the West.
Second biggest? Israel fighting in Gaza and Lebanon. Does Israel count as the West?
Third biggest is the civil war in Myanmar, then next is conflict in the Maghreb (mostly Muslim v Muslim), then the Sudanese civil war, and so on.
If you want to draw out themes, there’s a Saudi/Sunni v Iran/Shi’a conflict with proxy wars in various places and which is driving some of the Israel/Gaza/Lebanon war. There is still a Russia and China versus the West theme that’s carried over from the Cold War.
COP29, which started badly with plenty of no shows, is now on the verge of a complete breakdown, and that's on top of the Commonwealth hustle and FUBAR last month:
If they are, and I fear they may well be, then our descendants are basically fucked. The high point of international cooperation has been and gone, and the future is one of nationalist insanity and environmental destruction.
Darwin got it all wrong. We're regressing.
Evolution is not teleological. Darwin never said it always means "progress or improvement"
Yes, things can zig zag. I know that.
Anyway, as I now keep saying to all and sundry, Left Populism is coming. A radical economic offer for the struggling classes without the tacky xenophobic nostalgia that defines the right wing version.
It won't get funded by billionaires (for obvious reasons) but that won't matter once it gets rolling. I'm in. ✊️🕺
(please refrain from the very tedious "lol" if you choose to reply, which you shouldn't feel you have to)
I have seen you suggest this a couple of times and I don't really get it. Left populism would be an utter disaster for all of us (see Venezuela for an obvious example).
Populism is the enemy of progress, both of the left and right variety, and I think of you as a progressive. What's going on?
I mean a politics that shifts wealth and opportunity in favour of those who are in most need without corruption or financial recklessness or xenophobic obsession with borders and immigration. Nothing like Venezuela.
What do you honestly think will happen if Britain becomes, say, 30% Muslim? Or 40%? Think about it, and be honest
At 50-60% we could even get Sharia law
Um… who was saying they haven’t seen much evidence of Great Replacement Theory cropping up on PB?
What's the difference between a conspiracy theory and a projection of current trends?
From the 2001 to the 2021 census, Islam went from 2.7% to 5.97%, so that’s an increase of 3.27%, or 0.16% per year. If we project that trend forward, the UK will reach 50% Muslim in 269 more years. That is, in 2290. I think it unlikely any trend would actually continue for over two and a half centuries.
That’s the difference between a conspiracy theory and a projection of current trends.
That is pretty poor analysis from someone who has told us (s)he's an FRSS (Fellow of the Royal Statistical Society). Your assumption of linear growth in the proportion is obviously incorrect - what happens when you hit 100%? A better model (not the only one possible) takes the finite limit into account by using log-odds rather than proportions In 2001 log-odds = ln(0.027/(1-0.027)) ≈ -3.58 In 2021 log-odds = ln(0.0597/(1-0.0597)) ≈ -2.75 -> an increase of 0.83 over 20 years, i.e. about 0.0415 per year on the log-odds scale. If you want to project this forwards then the future proportion = 1/(1 + e^(-log-odds)) So to get to 50% Muslim, the log-odds would be ln(0.5/0.5) = 0 Starting from 2021's log-odds of -2.75, increasing by 0.0415 per year: we get Number of years = (0 - (-2.75))/0.0415 ≈ 66.3 years, i.e. in 2087
Add in that the rate of Muslim immigration has risen in the last few years not gone down. So 2087 is a conservative timeframe, we're looking at the 2060s if nothing changes from today.
Moreover, as soon as Muslims caucus as a religious voting group (as is entirely their right in a democracy, and as now seems to be happening in the UK) then they can quickly alter the political complexion of that society long before they reach 50% of the entire population
As jut 15-20% of the electorate, if a Muslim minority votes en masse for a "Muslim party" that entirely changes British politics. Any new govenrment would have to take into account their views, and indeed enact some of their policies/attitudes
We can see what UKIP did to Britain with similar numbers, they basically got Brexit
So if I was gay, or indeed female, I would be scared of a Muslim population exceeding 15%, let alone 50%. That's democracy
At that point, all you have left is the pious hope that 2nd 3rd and 4th generation Muslims become less Muslim. But that does not seem to be happening, indeed the opposite. So this is not something to worry about in 40 years, it is something to worry about in 10-20 years, if not sooner
And that's the issue that @isam used to raise and he was/is right. Our politics is on the cusp of changing for good. We got a taste of it this time with the Gaza voters coalescing around mostly Muslim candidates and fellow travellers like Jez and George Galloway. Next time there will be a sectarian Muslim party, after that they'll get some votes and the time after that they'll get lots of votes and Labour will have to go into coalition with them to get into power.
COP29, which started badly with plenty of no shows, is now on the verge of a complete breakdown, and that's on top of the Commonwealth hustle and FUBAR last month:
If they are, and I fear they may well be, then our descendants are basically fucked. The high point of international cooperation has been and gone, and the future is one of nationalist insanity and environmental destruction.
Darwin got it all wrong. We're regressing.
Evolution is not teleological. Darwin never said it always means "progress or improvement"
Yes, things can zig zag. I know that.
Anyway, as I now keep saying to all and sundry, Left Populism is coming. A radical economic offer for the struggling classes without the tacky xenophobic nostalgia that defines the right wing version.
It won't get funded by billionaires (for obvious reasons) but that won't matter once it gets rolling. I'm in. ✊️🕺
(please refrain from the very tedious "lol" if you choose to reply, which you shouldn't feel you have to)
I have seen you suggest this a couple of times and I don't really get it. Left populism would be an utter disaster for all of us (see Venezuela for an obvious example).
Populism is the enemy of progress, both of the left and right variety, and I think of you as a progressive. What's going on?
I mean a politics that shifts wealth and opportunity in favour of those who are in most need without corruption or financial recklessness or xenophobic obsession with borders and immigration. Nothing like Venezuela.
What do you honestly think will happen if Britain becomes, say, 30% Muslim? Or 40%? Think about it, and be honest
At 50-60% we could even get Sharia law
I'm not aware of any large country where that has happened in modern times, though there are certain small examples. There are majoritarian Muslim smaller countries in Europe - Albania, B&H, Kosovo. I'm not sure of the status of Sharia Law in those.
Same sex marriage and civil unions are certainly illegal in Albania, same sex marriage is not legal in Kosovo or Bosnia either so even if not full Sharia LGBT rights would likely regress
LGBT rights are also limited in Serbia, Bulgaria and Romania, which are all largely Christian, so is it Islam in Albania, Bosnia and Kosovo, or something about those countries being in the Balkans?
Slovenia is in the Balkans and has same sex marriage and Croatia has civil unions. No Muslim majority nation has same sex marriage.
Women are also discouraged from working with men in the same workplaces in Islam
Slovenia and Croatia are more western looking. I referred you already to Serbia, Bulgaria and Romania. You can also add North Macedonia. Moldova, Ukraine and eastwards also have no recognition of same sex marriages. Rights are limited in Slovakia, Poland and Lithuania. The dividing line in Europe is clearly not Muslim/non-Muslim.
Not a single Muslim majority nation on earth has same sex marriage, same sex unions or a female head of state or government.
The dividing line globally is clearly Muslim/non Muslim
Not a single Hindu, Jewish, Shinto or Daoist majority country has same sex marriage. Same sex marriage is largely confined to Western Europe and the Americas, with a few exceptions.
Taiwan has same sex marriage now. Israel has cohabitation rights for same sex couples. Even several Indian states give same sex couples cohabitation rights. India and Israel have also had female PMs and India a female head of state
Taiwan is not a Hindu, Jewish, Shinto or Daoist majority country, so it doesn’t disprove what I said. However, I was not aware of that welcome change in Taiwan. Thanks for bringing it to my attention.
As I said, Israel and India do not have same sex marriage.
There are several Muslim countries that have had female heads of state as well, like Bangladesh, Pakistan, Indonesia, Mali, Senegal, Kyrgyzstan and Tunisia.
Israel recognises same sex civil unions and they are now protected by a supreme court ruling. My wife's cousin had a lesbian civil union ceremony performed over a video link in Tel Aviv a year or so ago before the war started. It's convoluted but Israel basically has gay marriage, or at least gay people in Israel are able to have all the same rights as straight people.
Indeed
And yet.... Queers for Palestine. And waving Hamas, Houthi and Hezbollah symbols and flags, despite the fact Hamas would slaughter them in short order
The galaxies weep
It's just ridiculous, another think that bothers me is that he mentions "Hindu, Jewish and Shinto" countries but that's literally just India, Israel and Japan. Each of those religions get one bite at the cherry because there are no other Hindu, Jewish or Shinto countries in the world. Islam, otoh, has got the whole middle east, a big chunk of South Asia, huge parts of Africa and a small part of Europe where they are the majority and not a single country has legalised gay marriage or given gay people the same rights as straight people. There's no equivalence there between them and yet that's the kind of comparison he needs to make so that Islam seems reasonable.
We probably need a plan to rebuild the army, navy and to some extent the air force (this is a trickier one that I'll come back to) over a 5-10 year period, with an industrial strategy to boot, otherwise any extra money will simply be absorbed by inflation. On top, we'd need software integration of the defence platforms. Strategic objective should be to protect international and global trade, global stability and British interests worldwide as well as deter a serious "hot" war on the continent or near east, with a large sized force, and the option of a long-term medium sized deployment overseas.
RAF: hypersonic and drone defences, which might be more where the modern RAF needs to go on top of Tempest, if it's still valid, and additional strike capability. I doubt seven front-line squadrons are enough. Of course, we need maritime aircraft.
Royal Navy: is in a pitiful state. The 1998 SDR projected reducing the fleet of frigates and destroyers from 35 to 32. And we were supposed to get 12 x Type 45 destroyers. But we now actually only have 6 and, I think now, only 12 x frigates, most of which can't put to sea, and 6 x functional HK subs. We need to get back up to 12 x destroyers, 20 x frigates, 12 x attack submarines, four x strategic subs, two amphibious platforms, and a RFA that can sustain them all. We can deploy a serious carrier battlegroup with reserves at any time. Big expansion.
British Army: in an even more pitiful state. At almost every level. Where do you start? Ammo, artillery, fighting vehicles, APCs, tanks and infantry all well below even the most basic establishment levels. The BAOR was about 50k men right though the 1980s and British Forces Germany still 25k men in the 1990s. Whatever way I look at it I think we need the capability for the deployment of two fully equipped heavy war-fighting divisions, with another in reserve and another in training. It probably needs to go back up to about 125,000 regulars which is an expansion of 50,000 men. Massive.
But my fag packet calculations are that we'd need to probably spend 3.5% of GDP ultimately to do all that. So the defence budget need to rise from £57bn per year to about £88-89bn per year or about a 30-32bn increase each year.
I can get there with 2p on the basic rate and the higher rate, so 22p becomes the new basic rate and 42p become the higher rate and 47p the new top rate (raises about £20bn of that) and ending the triple lock (saves about £10bn).
The more I think about it the more I think we have to do it, and start arguing for it..
I could live with that. You?
.
Dunno enough about the details but I'd very, very happily pay an extra 2p on income tax for a decent defence policy.
My non-expert caveats: - Dura-Ace (wherever he is) had a healthy skepticism about the MoDs ability to spaff money up the wall. - We probably needed to do this a decade ago. Still, better late than never.
COP29, which started badly with plenty of no shows, is now on the verge of a complete breakdown, and that's on top of the Commonwealth hustle and FUBAR last month:
If they are, and I fear they may well be, then our descendants are basically fucked. The high point of international cooperation has been and gone, and the future is one of nationalist insanity and environmental destruction.
Darwin got it all wrong. We're regressing.
Evolution is not teleological. Darwin never said it always means "progress or improvement"
Yes, things can zig zag. I know that.
Anyway, as I now keep saying to all and sundry, Left Populism is coming. A radical economic offer for the struggling classes without the tacky xenophobic nostalgia that defines the right wing version.
It won't get funded by billionaires (for obvious reasons) but that won't matter once it gets rolling. I'm in. ✊️🕺
(please refrain from the very tedious "lol" if you choose to reply, which you shouldn't feel you have to)
I have seen you suggest this a couple of times and I don't really get it. Left populism would be an utter disaster for all of us (see Venezuela for an obvious example).
Populism is the enemy of progress, both of the left and right variety, and I think of you as a progressive. What's going on?
I mean a politics that shifts wealth and opportunity in favour of those who are in most need without corruption or financial recklessness or xenophobic obsession with borders and immigration. Nothing like Venezuela.
What do you honestly think will happen if Britain becomes, say, 30% Muslim? Or 40%? Think about it, and be honest
At 50-60% we could even get Sharia law
I'm not aware of any large country where that has happened in modern times, though there are certain small examples. There are majoritarian Muslim smaller countries in Europe - Albania, B&H, Kosovo. I'm not sure of the status of Sharia Law in those.
Same sex marriage and civil unions are certainly illegal in Albania, same sex marriage is not legal in Kosovo or Bosnia either so even if not full Sharia LGBT rights would likely regress
LGBT rights are also limited in Serbia, Bulgaria and Romania, which are all largely Christian, so is it Islam in Albania, Bosnia and Kosovo, or something about those countries being in the Balkans?
Slovenia is in the Balkans and has same sex marriage and Croatia has civil unions. No Muslim majority nation has same sex marriage.
Women are also discouraged from working with men in the same workplaces in Islam
Slovenia and Croatia are more western looking. I referred you already to Serbia, Bulgaria and Romania. You can also add North Macedonia. Moldova, Ukraine and eastwards also have no recognition of same sex marriages. Rights are limited in Slovakia, Poland and Lithuania. The dividing line in Europe is clearly not Muslim/non-Muslim.
Not a single Muslim majority nation on earth has same sex marriage, same sex unions or a female head of state or government.
The dividing line globally is clearly Muslim/non Muslim
Not a single Hindu, Jewish, Shinto or Daoist majority country has same sex marriage. Same sex marriage is largely confined to Western Europe and the Americas, with a few exceptions.
What in the name of holy Christological fuck is a "Shinto-majority country"?
The nonsense "non-racist" way of saying East Asian countries.
No. Shinto is largely confined to Japan. Japan is the only Shinto-majority country in the world.
East Asia is religiously diverse, but Buddhism is probably commonest. Most Buddhist-majority countries don’t have same sex marriage either… but one does! Thailand.
I'm sure you'd do well on Mastermind but on the core issue of the clash between Islam and the west, it appears you have nothing to say.
I think talking about a clash between Islam and the West is simplistic nonsense. What’s the biggest conflict in the world right now? Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Not Islam v the West.
Second biggest? Israel fighting in Gaza and Lebanon. Does Israel count as the West?
Third biggest is the civil war in Myanmar, then next is conflict in the Maghreb (mostly Muslim v Muslim), then the Sudanese civil war, and so on.
If you want to draw out themes, there’s a Saudi/Sunni v Iran/Shi’a conflict with proxy wars in various places and which is driving some of the Israel/Gaza/Lebanon war. There is still a Russia and China versus the West theme that’s carried over from the Cold War.
COP29, which started badly with plenty of no shows, is now on the verge of a complete breakdown, and that's on top of the Commonwealth hustle and FUBAR last month:
If they are, and I fear they may well be, then our descendants are basically fucked. The high point of international cooperation has been and gone, and the future is one of nationalist insanity and environmental destruction.
Darwin got it all wrong. We're regressing.
Evolution is not teleological. Darwin never said it always means "progress or improvement"
Yes, things can zig zag. I know that.
Anyway, as I now keep saying to all and sundry, Left Populism is coming. A radical economic offer for the struggling classes without the tacky xenophobic nostalgia that defines the right wing version.
It won't get funded by billionaires (for obvious reasons) but that won't matter once it gets rolling. I'm in. ✊️🕺
(please refrain from the very tedious "lol" if you choose to reply, which you shouldn't feel you have to)
I have seen you suggest this a couple of times and I don't really get it. Left populism would be an utter disaster for all of us (see Venezuela for an obvious example).
Populism is the enemy of progress, both of the left and right variety, and I think of you as a progressive. What's going on?
I mean a politics that shifts wealth and opportunity in favour of those who are in most need without corruption or financial recklessness or xenophobic obsession with borders and immigration. Nothing like Venezuela.
What do you honestly think will happen if Britain becomes, say, 30% Muslim? Or 40%? Think about it, and be honest
At 50-60% we could even get Sharia law
I'm not aware of any large country where that has happened in modern times, though there are certain small examples. There are majoritarian Muslim smaller countries in Europe - Albania, B&H, Kosovo. I'm not sure of the status of Sharia Law in those.
Same sex marriage and civil unions are certainly illegal in Albania, same sex marriage is not legal in Kosovo or Bosnia either so even if not full Sharia LGBT rights would likely regress
LGBT rights are also limited in Serbia, Bulgaria and Romania, which are all largely Christian, so is it Islam in Albania, Bosnia and Kosovo, or something about those countries being in the Balkans?
Slovenia is in the Balkans and has same sex marriage and Croatia has civil unions. No Muslim majority nation has same sex marriage.
Women are also discouraged from working with men in the same workplaces in Islam
Slovenia and Croatia are more western looking. I referred you already to Serbia, Bulgaria and Romania. You can also add North Macedonia. Moldova, Ukraine and eastwards also have no recognition of same sex marriages. Rights are limited in Slovakia, Poland and Lithuania. The dividing line in Europe is clearly not Muslim/non-Muslim.
Not a single Muslim majority nation on earth has same sex marriage, same sex unions or a female head of state or government.
The dividing line globally is clearly Muslim/non Muslim
Not a single Hindu, Jewish, Shinto or Daoist majority country has same sex marriage. Same sex marriage is largely confined to Western Europe and the Americas, with a few exceptions.
Taiwan has same sex marriage now. Israel has cohabitation rights for same sex couples. Even several Indian states give same sex couples cohabitation rights. India and Israel have also had female PMs and India a female head of state
Taiwan is not a Hindu, Jewish, Shinto or Daoist majority country, so it doesn’t disprove what I said. However, I was not aware of that welcome change in Taiwan. Thanks for bringing it to my attention.
As I said, Israel and India do not have same sex marriage.
There are several Muslim countries that have had female heads of state as well, like Bangladesh, Pakistan, Indonesia, Mali, Senegal, Kyrgyzstan and Tunisia.
Israel recognises same sex civil unions and they are now protected by a supreme court ruling. My wife's cousin had a lesbian civil union ceremony performed over a video link in Tel Aviv a year or so ago before the war started. It's convoluted but Israel basically has gay marriage, or at least gay people in Israel are able to have all the same rights as straight people.
Indeed
And yet.... Queers for Palestine. And waving Hamas, Houthi and Hezbollah symbols and flags, despite the fact Hamas would slaughter them in short order
The galaxies weep
It's just ridiculous, another think that bothers me is that he mentions "Hindu, Jewish and Shinto" countries but that's literally just India, Israel and Japan. Each of those religions get one bite at the cherry because there are no other Hindu, Jewish or Shinto countries in the world. Islam, otoh, has got the whole middle east, a big chunk of South Asia, huge parts of Africa and a small part of Europe where they are the majority and not a single country has legalised gay marriage or given gay people the same rights as straight people. There's no equivalence there between them and yet that's the kind of comparison he needs to make so that Islam seems reasonable.
COP29, which started badly with plenty of no shows, is now on the verge of a complete breakdown, and that's on top of the Commonwealth hustle and FUBAR last month:
If they are, and I fear they may well be, then our descendants are basically fucked. The high point of international cooperation has been and gone, and the future is one of nationalist insanity and environmental destruction.
Darwin got it all wrong. We're regressing.
Evolution is not teleological. Darwin never said it always means "progress or improvement"
Yes, things can zig zag. I know that.
Anyway, as I now keep saying to all and sundry, Left Populism is coming. A radical economic offer for the struggling classes without the tacky xenophobic nostalgia that defines the right wing version.
It won't get funded by billionaires (for obvious reasons) but that won't matter once it gets rolling. I'm in. ✊️🕺
(please refrain from the very tedious "lol" if you choose to reply, which you shouldn't feel you have to)
I have seen you suggest this a couple of times and I don't really get it. Left populism would be an utter disaster for all of us (see Venezuela for an obvious example).
Populism is the enemy of progress, both of the left and right variety, and I think of you as a progressive. What's going on?
I mean a politics that shifts wealth and opportunity in favour of those who are in most need without corruption or financial recklessness or xenophobic obsession with borders and immigration. Nothing like Venezuela.
What do you honestly think will happen if Britain becomes, say, 30% Muslim? Or 40%? Think about it, and be honest
At 50-60% we could even get Sharia law
Um… who was saying they haven’t seen much evidence of Great Replacement Theory cropping up on PB?
What's the difference between a conspiracy theory and a projection of current trends?
From the 2001 to the 2021 census, Islam went from 2.7% to 5.97%, so that’s an increase of 3.27%, or 0.16% per year. If we project that trend forward, the UK will reach 50% Muslim in 269 more years. That is, in 2290. I think it unlikely any trend would actually continue for over two and a half centuries.
That’s the difference between a conspiracy theory and a projection of current trends.
That is pretty poor analysis from someone who has told us (s)he's an FRSS (Fellow of the Royal Statistical Society). Your assumption of linear growth in the proportion is obviously incorrect - what happens when you hit 100%? A better model (not the only one possible) takes the finite limit into account by using log-odds rather than proportions In 2001 log-odds = ln(0.027/(1-0.027)) ≈ -3.58 In 2021 log-odds = ln(0.0597/(1-0.0597)) ≈ -2.75 -> an increase of 0.83 over 20 years, i.e. about 0.0415 per year on the log-odds scale. If you want to project this forwards then the future proportion = 1/(1 + e^(-log-odds)) So to get to 50% Muslim, the log-odds would be ln(0.5/0.5) = 0 Starting from 2021's log-odds of -2.75, increasing by 0.0415 per year: we get Number of years = (0 - (-2.75))/0.0415 ≈ 66.3 years, i.e. in 2087
Add in that the rate of Muslim immigration has risen in the last few years not gone down. So 2087 is a conservative timeframe, we're looking at the 2060s if nothing changes from today.
Add in the generational differences too, the percentage of young people being Muslim is quite different to the percentage of old people who are, and its not old people who are having future generation's kids.
I'd be quite intrigued to know what percentage of eg school age children are Muslim as compared to what percentage of the overall population are. From Google it seems that 1/12 were nearly a decade ago, which completely dwarfs the 5.97% in 2021 that @bondegezou claimed. I can't find any more recent data than that, but I imagine its trended only one way.
COP29, which started badly with plenty of no shows, is now on the verge of a complete breakdown, and that's on top of the Commonwealth hustle and FUBAR last month:
If they are, and I fear they may well be, then our descendants are basically fucked. The high point of international cooperation has been and gone, and the future is one of nationalist insanity and environmental destruction.
Darwin got it all wrong. We're regressing.
Evolution is not teleological. Darwin never said it always means "progress or improvement"
Yes, things can zig zag. I know that.
Anyway, as I now keep saying to all and sundry, Left Populism is coming. A radical economic offer for the struggling classes without the tacky xenophobic nostalgia that defines the right wing version.
It won't get funded by billionaires (for obvious reasons) but that won't matter once it gets rolling. I'm in. ✊️🕺
(please refrain from the very tedious "lol" if you choose to reply, which you shouldn't feel you have to)
I have seen you suggest this a couple of times and I don't really get it. Left populism would be an utter disaster for all of us (see Venezuela for an obvious example).
Populism is the enemy of progress, both of the left and right variety, and I think of you as a progressive. What's going on?
I mean a politics that shifts wealth and opportunity in favour of those who are in most need without corruption or financial recklessness or xenophobic obsession with borders and immigration. Nothing like Venezuela.
What do you honestly think will happen if Britain becomes, say, 30% Muslim? Or 40%? Think about it, and be honest
At 50-60% we could even get Sharia law
I'm not aware of any large country where that has happened in modern times, though there are certain small examples. There are majoritarian Muslim smaller countries in Europe - Albania, B&H, Kosovo. I'm not sure of the status of Sharia Law in those.
Same sex marriage and civil unions are certainly illegal in Albania, same sex marriage is not legal in Kosovo or Bosnia either so even if not full Sharia LGBT rights would likely regress
LGBT rights are also limited in Serbia, Bulgaria and Romania, which are all largely Christian, so is it Islam in Albania, Bosnia and Kosovo, or something about those countries being in the Balkans?
Slovenia is in the Balkans and has same sex marriage and Croatia has civil unions. No Muslim majority nation has same sex marriage.
Women are also discouraged from working with men in the same workplaces in Islam
Slovenia and Croatia are more western looking. I referred you already to Serbia, Bulgaria and Romania. You can also add North Macedonia. Moldova, Ukraine and eastwards also have no recognition of same sex marriages. Rights are limited in Slovakia, Poland and Lithuania. The dividing line in Europe is clearly not Muslim/non-Muslim.
Not a single Muslim majority nation on earth has same sex marriage, same sex unions or a female head of state or government.
The dividing line globally is clearly Muslim/non Muslim
Not a single Hindu, Jewish, Shinto or Daoist majority country has same sex marriage. Same sex marriage is largely confined to Western Europe and the Americas, with a few exceptions.
Taiwan has same sex marriage now. Israel has cohabitation rights for same sex couples. Even several Indian states give same sex couples cohabitation rights. India and Israel have also had female PMs and India a female head of state
Taiwan is not a Hindu, Jewish, Shinto or Daoist majority country, so it doesn’t disprove what I said. However, I was not aware of that welcome change in Taiwan. Thanks for bringing it to my attention.
As I said, Israel and India do not have same sex marriage.
There are several Muslim countries that have had female heads of state as well, like Bangladesh, Pakistan, Indonesia, Mali, Senegal, Kyrgyzstan and Tunisia.
Israel recognises same sex civil unions and they are now protected by a supreme court ruling. My wife's cousin had a lesbian civil union ceremony performed over a video link in Tel Aviv a year or so ago before the war started. It's convoluted but Israel basically has gay marriage, or at least gay people in Israel are able to have all the same rights as straight people.
Indeed
And yet.... Queers for Palestine. And waving Hamas, Houthi and Hezbollah symbols and flags, despite the fact Hamas would slaughter them in short order
The galaxies weep
It's just ridiculous, another think that bothers me is that he mentions "Hindu, Jewish and Shinto" countries but that's literally just India, Israel and Japan. Each of those religions get one bite at the cherry because there are no other Hindu, Jewish or Shinto countries in the world. Islam, otoh, has got the whole middle east, a big chunk of South Asia, huge parts of Africa and a small part of Europe where they are the majority and not a single country has legalised gay marriage or given gay people the same rights as straight people. There's no equivalence there between them and yet that's the kind of comparison he needs to make so that Islam seems reasonable.
My point is that the dividing line on same sex marriage in the world is not Muslim v non-Muslim, it’s Western Europe + the Americas v nearly everywhere else. Nearly all non-Muslim countries in Africa and Asia don’t have same sex marriage.
And do you want to team up with Leon, someone who thinks your children can’t count as fully British if they’re not white?
COP29, which started badly with plenty of no shows, is now on the verge of a complete breakdown, and that's on top of the Commonwealth hustle and FUBAR last month:
If they are, and I fear they may well be, then our descendants are basically fucked. The high point of international cooperation has been and gone, and the future is one of nationalist insanity and environmental destruction.
Darwin got it all wrong. We're regressing.
Evolution is not teleological. Darwin never said it always means "progress or improvement"
Yes, things can zig zag. I know that.
Anyway, as I now keep saying to all and sundry, Left Populism is coming. A radical economic offer for the struggling classes without the tacky xenophobic nostalgia that defines the right wing version.
It won't get funded by billionaires (for obvious reasons) but that won't matter once it gets rolling. I'm in. ✊️🕺
(please refrain from the very tedious "lol" if you choose to reply, which you shouldn't feel you have to)
I have seen you suggest this a couple of times and I don't really get it. Left populism would be an utter disaster for all of us (see Venezuela for an obvious example).
Populism is the enemy of progress, both of the left and right variety, and I think of you as a progressive. What's going on?
I mean a politics that shifts wealth and opportunity in favour of those who are in most need without corruption or financial recklessness or xenophobic obsession with borders and immigration. Nothing like Venezuela.
What do you honestly think will happen if Britain becomes, say, 30% Muslim? Or 40%? Think about it, and be honest
He can't. He wants to live in his bubble.
We couldn't accept that level and nor could any European country.
I agree, but that means necessarily at some point:
European countries bring in nation- or culture-specific restrictions on Islamic migration, which at the moment is entirely unpalatable to a lot of lefties, or indeed lots of people (and I can see why)
And/or
European countries start restricting displays of Islamic religion as a deterrent. Minarets, burqas, etc. We already see that in France and Switzerland
And/or
European countries start "voluntary deportation" of migrants. Already happening in Sweden
I predict this will all get a lot worse before it gets better
I think restricting and revoking visas and residency for people who don't align to our cultural values is necessary. It's going to upset people but we're allowing the viper into the nest because people are scared to say that vipers aren't good for nests.
Again, to repeat what I have posted many times in the past, we should be looking to Norway for our example here. 300 hours of compulsory language and culture lessons and immigrants don't get to choose where the live. They are assigned a county where they have to settle to avoid the creation of ghettos. It works.
Does it? Even Norway has serious problems. Probably only Denmark is seriously attempting - with success - to address this. Hence the re-election of their social democrat government, which is hard right - to an eye-watering degree by UK standards - on migration, culture, and asylum
Norway has serious problems with right wing biker gangs buring down churches. They don't have any real issues with immigrant populations - certainly nothing to copare with most other European countries.
If you remember this is why I was so convinced - along with you - that the 2011 attacks would turn out to be a right wing nutter rather than a muslim attack.
Norway is mercifully free of terror attacks, and of course Breivik was the worst by far
However of the 13 attacks since the year 2000, 8 or 9 appear to be Muslim/Islamist - ie the majority
BTW; how many deaths were there in these 13 attacks, just to put things in context for us.
Please, take your time.
Suggesting muslims are not over represented in terror/terrorist attacks would be very brave of you.
In my lifetime, by far the largest number of terrorist attacks in the UK were committed by Christians from Northern Ireland. If we look across Europe, then again the numbers are dominated by Christians, from Northern Ireland and the Basque Country.
Yep, the Christmas festivals of Europe are barricaded by concrete blocks and police with submachine guns because we are all scared of mass death caused by white Christian men from Biarritz and Bilbao
This isn't your best day on PB, is it?
It's laughable but the worrying thing is that he gives us an insight into how the civil service thinks and the establishment view and why nothing changes. It's the kind of stuff that makes me want to go and vote for Nigel Farage and hope he tears down the whole lot and starts again. Get rid of these commissars once and for all. Then I remember that Reform are bunch of ***** so can't bring myself to do and hope that my (others) brand of reason and logic will win the day within the Tory party.
Look at it this way - the one episode of widespread violence we have experienced under this new government was from the far-right, and some of the very PBers who are so concerned about Muslims in the UK are those that spouted all the two-tier nonsense when it came to convictions and sentencing for inciting violence.
While there is a deep concern about the views of young Muslim men, there is a barely suppressed glee about the rise of similar views among young "Christian" men. There are your tiers, and why it is difficult to take these kind of views seriously.
I don't see any glee from anyone around young men watching Andrew Tate and all of that awful content. The difference, I guess, is that we have to hope that those 15-25 year olds grow up and grow out of it, while Muslims with the same views we know probably won't because it's driven by religion.
COP29, which started badly with plenty of no shows, is now on the verge of a complete breakdown, and that's on top of the Commonwealth hustle and FUBAR last month:
If they are, and I fear they may well be, then our descendants are basically fucked. The high point of international cooperation has been and gone, and the future is one of nationalist insanity and environmental destruction.
Darwin got it all wrong. We're regressing.
Evolution is not teleological. Darwin never said it always means "progress or improvement"
Yes, things can zig zag. I know that.
Anyway, as I now keep saying to all and sundry, Left Populism is coming. A radical economic offer for the struggling classes without the tacky xenophobic nostalgia that defines the right wing version.
It won't get funded by billionaires (for obvious reasons) but that won't matter once it gets rolling. I'm in. ✊️🕺
(please refrain from the very tedious "lol" if you choose to reply, which you shouldn't feel you have to)
I have seen you suggest this a couple of times and I don't really get it. Left populism would be an utter disaster for all of us (see Venezuela for an obvious example).
Populism is the enemy of progress, both of the left and right variety, and I think of you as a progressive. What's going on?
I mean a politics that shifts wealth and opportunity in favour of those who are in most need without corruption or financial recklessness or xenophobic obsession with borders and immigration. Nothing like Venezuela.
What do you honestly think will happen if Britain becomes, say, 30% Muslim? Or 40%? Think about it, and be honest
At 50-60% we could even get Sharia law
I'm not aware of any large country where that has happened in modern times, though there are certain small examples. There are majoritarian Muslim smaller countries in Europe - Albania, B&H, Kosovo. I'm not sure of the status of Sharia Law in those.
Same sex marriage and civil unions are certainly illegal in Albania, same sex marriage is not legal in Kosovo or Bosnia either so even if not full Sharia LGBT rights would likely regress
LGBT rights are also limited in Serbia, Bulgaria and Romania, which are all largely Christian, so is it Islam in Albania, Bosnia and Kosovo, or something about those countries being in the Balkans?
Slovenia is in the Balkans and has same sex marriage and Croatia has civil unions. No Muslim majority nation has same sex marriage.
Women are also discouraged from working with men in the same workplaces in Islam
Slovenia and Croatia are more western looking. I referred you already to Serbia, Bulgaria and Romania. You can also add North Macedonia. Moldova, Ukraine and eastwards also have no recognition of same sex marriages. Rights are limited in Slovakia, Poland and Lithuania. The dividing line in Europe is clearly not Muslim/non-Muslim.
Not a single Muslim majority nation on earth has same sex marriage, same sex unions or a female head of state or government.
The dividing line globally is clearly Muslim/non Muslim
Not a single Hindu, Jewish, Shinto or Daoist majority country has same sex marriage. Same sex marriage is largely confined to Western Europe and the Americas, with a few exceptions.
What in the name of holy Christological fuck is a "Shinto-majority country"?
The nonsense "non-racist" way of saying East Asian countries.
No. Shinto is largely confined to Japan. Japan is the only Shinto-majority country in the world.
East Asia is religiously diverse, but Buddhism is probably commonest. Most Buddhist-majority countries don’t have same sex marriage either… but one does! Thailand.
I'm sure you'd do well on Mastermind but on the core issue of the clash between Islam and the west, it appears you have nothing to say.
I think talking about a clash between Islam and the West is simplistic nonsense. What’s the biggest conflict in the world right now? Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Not Islam v the West.
Second biggest? Israel fighting in Gaza and Lebanon. Does Israel count as the West?
Third biggest is the civil war in Myanmar, then next is conflict in the Maghreb (mostly Muslim v Muslim), then the Sudanese civil war, and so on.
If you want to draw out themes, there’s a Saudi/Sunni v Iran/Shi’a conflict with proxy wars in various places and which is driving some of the Israel/Gaza/Lebanon war. There is still a Russia and China versus the West theme that’s carried over from the Cold War.
Israel culturally is certainly the West.
You are ignoring demographic change too
Israel culturally is not the west, is the view of a dear friend of mine who recently moved from Israel to the UK.
I don’t see what demographic change has to do with it.
COP29, which started badly with plenty of no shows, is now on the verge of a complete breakdown, and that's on top of the Commonwealth hustle and FUBAR last month:
If they are, and I fear they may well be, then our descendants are basically fucked. The high point of international cooperation has been and gone, and the future is one of nationalist insanity and environmental destruction.
Darwin got it all wrong. We're regressing.
Evolution is not teleological. Darwin never said it always means "progress or improvement"
Yes, things can zig zag. I know that.
Anyway, as I now keep saying to all and sundry, Left Populism is coming. A radical economic offer for the struggling classes without the tacky xenophobic nostalgia that defines the right wing version.
It won't get funded by billionaires (for obvious reasons) but that won't matter once it gets rolling. I'm in. ✊️🕺
(please refrain from the very tedious "lol" if you choose to reply, which you shouldn't feel you have to)
I have seen you suggest this a couple of times and I don't really get it. Left populism would be an utter disaster for all of us (see Venezuela for an obvious example).
Populism is the enemy of progress, both of the left and right variety, and I think of you as a progressive. What's going on?
I mean a politics that shifts wealth and opportunity in favour of those who are in most need without corruption or financial recklessness or xenophobic obsession with borders and immigration. Nothing like Venezuela.
What do you honestly think will happen if Britain becomes, say, 30% Muslim? Or 40%? Think about it, and be honest
At 50-60% we could even get Sharia law
I'm not aware of any large country where that has happened in modern times, though there are certain small examples. There are majoritarian Muslim smaller countries in Europe - Albania, B&H, Kosovo. I'm not sure of the status of Sharia Law in those.
Same sex marriage and civil unions are certainly illegal in Albania, same sex marriage is not legal in Kosovo or Bosnia either so even if not full Sharia LGBT rights would likely regress
LGBT rights are also limited in Serbia, Bulgaria and Romania, which are all largely Christian, so is it Islam in Albania, Bosnia and Kosovo, or something about those countries being in the Balkans?
Slovenia is in the Balkans and has same sex marriage and Croatia has civil unions. No Muslim majority nation has same sex marriage.
Women are also discouraged from working with men in the same workplaces in Islam
Slovenia and Croatia are more western looking. I referred you already to Serbia, Bulgaria and Romania. You can also add North Macedonia. Moldova, Ukraine and eastwards also have no recognition of same sex marriages. Rights are limited in Slovakia, Poland and Lithuania. The dividing line in Europe is clearly not Muslim/non-Muslim.
Not a single Muslim majority nation on earth has same sex marriage, same sex unions or a female head of state or government.
The dividing line globally is clearly Muslim/non Muslim
Not a single Hindu, Jewish, Shinto or Daoist majority country has same sex marriage. Same sex marriage is largely confined to Western Europe and the Americas, with a few exceptions.
What in the name of holy Christological fuck is a "Shinto-majority country"?
The nonsense "non-racist" way of saying East Asian countries.
No. Shinto is largely confined to Japan. Japan is the only Shinto-majority country in the world.
East Asia is religiously diverse, but Buddhism is probably commonest. Most Buddhist-majority countries don’t have same sex marriage either… but one does! Thailand.
I'm sure you'd do well on Mastermind but on the core issue of the clash between Islam and the west, it appears you have nothing to say.
I think talking about a clash between Islam and the West is simplistic nonsense. What’s the biggest conflict in the world right now? Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Not Islam v the West.
Second biggest? Israel fighting in Gaza and Lebanon. Does Israel count as the West?
Third biggest is the civil war in Myanmar, then next is conflict in the Maghreb (mostly Muslim v Muslim), then the Sudanese civil war, and so on.
If you want to draw out themes, there’s a Saudi/Sunni v Iran/Shi’a conflict with proxy wars in various places and which is driving some of the Israel/Gaza/Lebanon war. There is still a Russia and China versus the West theme that’s carried over from the Cold War.
Israel culturally is certainly the West.
You are ignoring demographic change too
Israel culturally is not the west, is the view of a dear friend of mine who recently moved from Israel to the UK.
I don’t see what demographic change has to do with it.
COP29, which started badly with plenty of no shows, is now on the verge of a complete breakdown, and that's on top of the Commonwealth hustle and FUBAR last month:
If they are, and I fear they may well be, then our descendants are basically fucked. The high point of international cooperation has been and gone, and the future is one of nationalist insanity and environmental destruction.
Darwin got it all wrong. We're regressing.
Evolution is not teleological. Darwin never said it always means "progress or improvement"
Yes, things can zig zag. I know that.
Anyway, as I now keep saying to all and sundry, Left Populism is coming. A radical economic offer for the struggling classes without the tacky xenophobic nostalgia that defines the right wing version.
It won't get funded by billionaires (for obvious reasons) but that won't matter once it gets rolling. I'm in. ✊️🕺
(please refrain from the very tedious "lol" if you choose to reply, which you shouldn't feel you have to)
I have seen you suggest this a couple of times and I don't really get it. Left populism would be an utter disaster for all of us (see Venezuela for an obvious example).
Populism is the enemy of progress, both of the left and right variety, and I think of you as a progressive. What's going on?
I mean a politics that shifts wealth and opportunity in favour of those who are in most need without corruption or financial recklessness or xenophobic obsession with borders and immigration. Nothing like Venezuela.
What do you honestly think will happen if Britain becomes, say, 30% Muslim? Or 40%? Think about it, and be honest
At 50-60% we could even get Sharia law
Um… who was saying they haven’t seen much evidence of Great Replacement Theory cropping up on PB?
What's the difference between a conspiracy theory and a projection of current trends?
From the 2001 to the 2021 census, Islam went from 2.7% to 5.97%, so that’s an increase of 3.27%, or 0.16% per year. If we project that trend forward, the UK will reach 50% Muslim in 269 more years. That is, in 2290. I think it unlikely any trend would actually continue for over two and a half centuries.
That’s the difference between a conspiracy theory and a projection of current trends.
That is pretty poor analysis from someone who has told us (s)he's an FRSS (Fellow of the Royal Statistical Society). Your assumption of linear growth in the proportion is obviously incorrect - what happens when you hit 100%? A better model (not the only one possible) takes the finite limit into account by using log-odds rather than proportions In 2001 log-odds = ln(0.027/(1-0.027)) ≈ -3.58 In 2021 log-odds = ln(0.0597/(1-0.0597)) ≈ -2.75 -> an increase of 0.83 over 20 years, i.e. about 0.0415 per year on the log-odds scale. If you want to project this forwards then the future proportion = 1/(1 + e^(-log-odds)) So to get to 50% Muslim, the log-odds would be ln(0.5/0.5) = 0 Starting from 2021's log-odds of -2.75, increasing by 0.0415 per year: we get Number of years = (0 - (-2.75))/0.0415 ≈ 66.3 years, i.e. in 2087
Add in that the rate of Muslim immigration has risen in the last few years not gone down. So 2087 is a conservative timeframe, we're looking at the 2060s if nothing changes from today.
Moreover, as soon as Muslims caucus as a religious voting group (as is entirely their right in a democracy, and as now seems to be happening in the UK) then they can quickly alter the political complexion of that society long before they reach 50% of the entire population
As jut 15-20% of the electorate, if a Muslim minority votes en masse for a "Muslim party" that entirely changes British politics. Any new govenrment would have to take into account their views, and indeed enact some of their policies/attitudes
We can see what UKIP did to Britain with similar numbers, they basically got Brexit
So if I was gay, or indeed female, I would be scared of a Muslim population exceeding 15%, let alone 50%. That's democracy
At that point, all you have left is the pious hope that 2nd 3rd and 4th generation Muslims become less Muslim. But that does not seem to be happening, indeed the opposite. So this is not something to worry about in 40 years, it is something to worry about in 10-20 years, if not sooner
And that's the issue that @isam used to raise and he was/is right. Our politics is on the cusp of changing for good. We got a taste of it this time with the Gaza voters coalescing around mostly Muslim candidates and fellow travellers like Jez and George Galloway. Next time there will be a sectarian Muslim party, after that they'll get some votes and the time after that they'll get lots of votes and Labour will have to go into coalition with them to get into power.
If Labour formed such a coalition with the growing Galloway like Muslim Independents even a Tommy Robinson led UKIP would gain some seats in reaction in white working class areas of the North and Midlands and Essex in particular, the Tories would in turn be forced right to be able to form deals with Reform who in turn would be pushed into deals with even Robinson.
The LDs meanwhile would try and maintain some form of upper middle class home counties and southern centrism but would literally be the squeezed middle
COP29, which started badly with plenty of no shows, is now on the verge of a complete breakdown, and that's on top of the Commonwealth hustle and FUBAR last month:
If they are, and I fear they may well be, then our descendants are basically fucked. The high point of international cooperation has been and gone, and the future is one of nationalist insanity and environmental destruction.
Darwin got it all wrong. We're regressing.
Evolution is not teleological. Darwin never said it always means "progress or improvement"
Yes, things can zig zag. I know that.
Anyway, as I now keep saying to all and sundry, Left Populism is coming. A radical economic offer for the struggling classes without the tacky xenophobic nostalgia that defines the right wing version.
It won't get funded by billionaires (for obvious reasons) but that won't matter once it gets rolling. I'm in. ✊️🕺
(please refrain from the very tedious "lol" if you choose to reply, which you shouldn't feel you have to)
I have seen you suggest this a couple of times and I don't really get it. Left populism would be an utter disaster for all of us (see Venezuela for an obvious example).
Populism is the enemy of progress, both of the left and right variety, and I think of you as a progressive. What's going on?
I mean a politics that shifts wealth and opportunity in favour of those who are in most need without corruption or financial recklessness or xenophobic obsession with borders and immigration. Nothing like Venezuela.
What do you honestly think will happen if Britain becomes, say, 30% Muslim? Or 40%? Think about it, and be honest
At 50-60% we could even get Sharia law
Um… who was saying they haven’t seen much evidence of Great Replacement Theory cropping up on PB?
What's the difference between a conspiracy theory and a projection of current trends?
From the 2001 to the 2021 census, Islam went from 2.7% to 5.97%, so that’s an increase of 3.27%, or 0.16% per year. If we project that trend forward, the UK will reach 50% Muslim in 269 more years. That is, in 2290. I think it unlikely any trend would actually continue for over two and a half centuries.
That’s the difference between a conspiracy theory and a projection of current trends.
That is pretty poor analysis from someone who has told us (s)he's an FRSS (Fellow of the Royal Statistical Society). Your assumption of linear growth in the proportion is obviously incorrect - what happens when you hit 100%? A better model (not the only one possible) takes the finite limit into account by using log-odds rather than proportions In 2001 log-odds = ln(0.027/(1-0.027)) ≈ -3.58 In 2021 log-odds = ln(0.0597/(1-0.0597)) ≈ -2.75 -> an increase of 0.83 over 20 years, i.e. about 0.0415 per year on the log-odds scale. If you want to project this forwards then the future proportion = 1/(1 + e^(-log-odds)) So to get to 50% Muslim, the log-odds would be ln(0.5/0.5) = 0 Starting from 2021's log-odds of -2.75, increasing by 0.0415 per year: we get Number of years = (0 - (-2.75))/0.0415 ≈ 66.3 years, i.e. in 2087
Add in that the rate of Muslim immigration has risen in the last few years not gone down. So 2087 is a conservative timeframe, we're looking at the 2060s if nothing changes from today.
Add in the generational differences too, the percentage of young people being Muslim is quite different to the percentage of old people who are, and its not old people who are having future generation's kids.
I'd be quite intrigued to know what percentage of eg school age children are Muslim as compared to what percentage of the overall population are. From Google it seems that 1/12 were nearly a decade ago, which completely dwarfs the 5.97% in 2021 that @bondegezou claimed. I can't find any more recent data than that, but I imagine its trended only one way.
“claimed”? Are you saying the census figures are wrong? Or that I’m lying about them?
COP29, which started badly with plenty of no shows, is now on the verge of a complete breakdown, and that's on top of the Commonwealth hustle and FUBAR last month:
If they are, and I fear they may well be, then our descendants are basically fucked. The high point of international cooperation has been and gone, and the future is one of nationalist insanity and environmental destruction.
Darwin got it all wrong. We're regressing.
Evolution is not teleological. Darwin never said it always means "progress or improvement"
Yes, things can zig zag. I know that.
Anyway, as I now keep saying to all and sundry, Left Populism is coming. A radical economic offer for the struggling classes without the tacky xenophobic nostalgia that defines the right wing version.
It won't get funded by billionaires (for obvious reasons) but that won't matter once it gets rolling. I'm in. ✊️🕺
(please refrain from the very tedious "lol" if you choose to reply, which you shouldn't feel you have to)
I have seen you suggest this a couple of times and I don't really get it. Left populism would be an utter disaster for all of us (see Venezuela for an obvious example).
Populism is the enemy of progress, both of the left and right variety, and I think of you as a progressive. What's going on?
I mean a politics that shifts wealth and opportunity in favour of those who are in most need without corruption or financial recklessness or xenophobic obsession with borders and immigration. Nothing like Venezuela.
What do you honestly think will happen if Britain becomes, say, 30% Muslim? Or 40%? Think about it, and be honest
At 50-60% we could even get Sharia law
I'm not aware of any large country where that has happened in modern times, though there are certain small examples. There are majoritarian Muslim smaller countries in Europe - Albania, B&H, Kosovo. I'm not sure of the status of Sharia Law in those.
Same sex marriage and civil unions are certainly illegal in Albania, same sex marriage is not legal in Kosovo or Bosnia either so even if not full Sharia LGBT rights would likely regress
LGBT rights are also limited in Serbia, Bulgaria and Romania, which are all largely Christian, so is it Islam in Albania, Bosnia and Kosovo, or something about those countries being in the Balkans?
Slovenia is in the Balkans and has same sex marriage and Croatia has civil unions. No Muslim majority nation has same sex marriage.
Women are also discouraged from working with men in the same workplaces in Islam
Slovenia and Croatia are more western looking. I referred you already to Serbia, Bulgaria and Romania. You can also add North Macedonia. Moldova, Ukraine and eastwards also have no recognition of same sex marriages. Rights are limited in Slovakia, Poland and Lithuania. The dividing line in Europe is clearly not Muslim/non-Muslim.
Not a single Muslim majority nation on earth has same sex marriage, same sex unions or a female head of state or government.
The dividing line globally is clearly Muslim/non Muslim
Not a single Hindu, Jewish, Shinto or Daoist majority country has same sex marriage. Same sex marriage is largely confined to Western Europe and the Americas, with a few exceptions.
What in the name of holy Christological fuck is a "Shinto-majority country"?
The nonsense "non-racist" way of saying East Asian countries.
No. Shinto is largely confined to Japan. Japan is the only Shinto-majority country in the world.
East Asia is religiously diverse, but Buddhism is probably commonest. Most Buddhist-majority countries don’t have same sex marriage either… but one does! Thailand.
I'm sure you'd do well on Mastermind but on the core issue of the clash between Islam and the west, it appears you have nothing to say.
I think talking about a clash between Islam and the West is simplistic nonsense. What’s the biggest conflict in the world right now? Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Not Islam v the West.
Second biggest? Israel fighting in Gaza and Lebanon. Does Israel count as the West?
Third biggest is the civil war in Myanmar, then next is conflict in the Maghreb (mostly Muslim v Muslim), then the Sudanese civil war, and so on.
If you want to draw out themes, there’s a Saudi/Sunni v Iran/Shi’a conflict with proxy wars in various places and which is driving some of the Israel/Gaza/Lebanon war. There is still a Russia and China versus the West theme that’s carried over from the Cold War.
Israel culturally is certainly the West.
You are ignoring demographic change too
Israel culturally is not the west, is the view of a dear friend of mine who recently moved from Israel to the UK.
I don’t see what demographic change has to do with it.
Your friend is wrong.
Israel absolutely 100% is western.
So I shouldn’t listen to the word of an Israeli citizen who’s recently moved from Israel? I mean, obviously you would know better.
COP29, which started badly with plenty of no shows, is now on the verge of a complete breakdown, and that's on top of the Commonwealth hustle and FUBAR last month:
If they are, and I fear they may well be, then our descendants are basically fucked. The high point of international cooperation has been and gone, and the future is one of nationalist insanity and environmental destruction.
Darwin got it all wrong. We're regressing.
Evolution is not teleological. Darwin never said it always means "progress or improvement"
Yes, things can zig zag. I know that.
Anyway, as I now keep saying to all and sundry, Left Populism is coming. A radical economic offer for the struggling classes without the tacky xenophobic nostalgia that defines the right wing version.
It won't get funded by billionaires (for obvious reasons) but that won't matter once it gets rolling. I'm in. ✊️🕺
(please refrain from the very tedious "lol" if you choose to reply, which you shouldn't feel you have to)
I have seen you suggest this a couple of times and I don't really get it. Left populism would be an utter disaster for all of us (see Venezuela for an obvious example).
Populism is the enemy of progress, both of the left and right variety, and I think of you as a progressive. What's going on?
I mean a politics that shifts wealth and opportunity in favour of those who are in most need without corruption or financial recklessness or xenophobic obsession with borders and immigration. Nothing like Venezuela.
What do you honestly think will happen if Britain becomes, say, 30% Muslim? Or 40%? Think about it, and be honest
At 50-60% we could even get Sharia law
I'm not aware of any large country where that has happened in modern times, though there are certain small examples. There are majoritarian Muslim smaller countries in Europe - Albania, B&H, Kosovo. I'm not sure of the status of Sharia Law in those.
Same sex marriage and civil unions are certainly illegal in Albania, same sex marriage is not legal in Kosovo or Bosnia either so even if not full Sharia LGBT rights would likely regress
LGBT rights are also limited in Serbia, Bulgaria and Romania, which are all largely Christian, so is it Islam in Albania, Bosnia and Kosovo, or something about those countries being in the Balkans?
Slovenia is in the Balkans and has same sex marriage and Croatia has civil unions. No Muslim majority nation has same sex marriage.
Women are also discouraged from working with men in the same workplaces in Islam
Slovenia and Croatia are more western looking. I referred you already to Serbia, Bulgaria and Romania. You can also add North Macedonia. Moldova, Ukraine and eastwards also have no recognition of same sex marriages. Rights are limited in Slovakia, Poland and Lithuania. The dividing line in Europe is clearly not Muslim/non-Muslim.
Not a single Muslim majority nation on earth has same sex marriage, same sex unions or a female head of state or government.
The dividing line globally is clearly Muslim/non Muslim
Not a single Hindu, Jewish, Shinto or Daoist majority country has same sex marriage. Same sex marriage is largely confined to Western Europe and the Americas, with a few exceptions.
What in the name of holy Christological fuck is a "Shinto-majority country"?
The nonsense "non-racist" way of saying East Asian countries.
No. Shinto is largely confined to Japan. Japan is the only Shinto-majority country in the world.
East Asia is religiously diverse, but Buddhism is probably commonest. Most Buddhist-majority countries don’t have same sex marriage either… but one does! Thailand.
I'm sure you'd do well on Mastermind but on the core issue of the clash between Islam and the west, it appears you have nothing to say.
I think talking about a clash between Islam and the West is simplistic nonsense. What’s the biggest conflict in the world right now? Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Not Islam v the West.
Second biggest? Israel fighting in Gaza and Lebanon. Does Israel count as the West?
Third biggest is the civil war in Myanmar, then next is conflict in the Maghreb (mostly Muslim v Muslim), then the Sudanese civil war, and so on.
If you want to draw out themes, there’s a Saudi/Sunni v Iran/Shi’a conflict with proxy wars in various places and which is driving some of the Israel/Gaza/Lebanon war. There is still a Russia and China versus the West theme that’s carried over from the Cold War.
Israel culturally is certainly the West.
You are ignoring demographic change too
Israel culturally is not the west, is the view of a dear friend of mine who recently moved from Israel to the UK.
I don’t see what demographic change has to do with it.
Your friend is wrong.
Israel absolutely 100% is western.
El Al offers only kosher in-flight meals, and does not fly passengers on the Jewish Shabbat or other religious holidays.
COP29, which started badly with plenty of no shows, is now on the verge of a complete breakdown, and that's on top of the Commonwealth hustle and FUBAR last month:
If they are, and I fear they may well be, then our descendants are basically fucked. The high point of international cooperation has been and gone, and the future is one of nationalist insanity and environmental destruction.
Darwin got it all wrong. We're regressing.
Evolution is not teleological. Darwin never said it always means "progress or improvement"
Yes, things can zig zag. I know that.
Anyway, as I now keep saying to all and sundry, Left Populism is coming. A radical economic offer for the struggling classes without the tacky xenophobic nostalgia that defines the right wing version.
It won't get funded by billionaires (for obvious reasons) but that won't matter once it gets rolling. I'm in. ✊️🕺
(please refrain from the very tedious "lol" if you choose to reply, which you shouldn't feel you have to)
I have seen you suggest this a couple of times and I don't really get it. Left populism would be an utter disaster for all of us (see Venezuela for an obvious example).
Populism is the enemy of progress, both of the left and right variety, and I think of you as a progressive. What's going on?
I mean a politics that shifts wealth and opportunity in favour of those who are in most need without corruption or financial recklessness or xenophobic obsession with borders and immigration. Nothing like Venezuela.
What do you honestly think will happen if Britain becomes, say, 30% Muslim? Or 40%? Think about it, and be honest
At 50-60% we could even get Sharia law
I'm not aware of any large country where that has happened in modern times, though there are certain small examples. There are majoritarian Muslim smaller countries in Europe - Albania, B&H, Kosovo. I'm not sure of the status of Sharia Law in those.
Same sex marriage and civil unions are certainly illegal in Albania, same sex marriage is not legal in Kosovo or Bosnia either so even if not full Sharia LGBT rights would likely regress
LGBT rights are also limited in Serbia, Bulgaria and Romania, which are all largely Christian, so is it Islam in Albania, Bosnia and Kosovo, or something about those countries being in the Balkans?
Slovenia is in the Balkans and has same sex marriage and Croatia has civil unions. No Muslim majority nation has same sex marriage.
Women are also discouraged from working with men in the same workplaces in Islam
Slovenia and Croatia are more western looking. I referred you already to Serbia, Bulgaria and Romania. You can also add North Macedonia. Moldova, Ukraine and eastwards also have no recognition of same sex marriages. Rights are limited in Slovakia, Poland and Lithuania. The dividing line in Europe is clearly not Muslim/non-Muslim.
Not a single Muslim majority nation on earth has same sex marriage, same sex unions or a female head of state or government.
The dividing line globally is clearly Muslim/non Muslim
Not a single Hindu, Jewish, Shinto or Daoist majority country has same sex marriage. Same sex marriage is largely confined to Western Europe and the Americas, with a few exceptions.
Taiwan has same sex marriage now. Israel has cohabitation rights for same sex couples. Even several Indian states give same sex couples cohabitation rights. India and Israel have also had female PMs and India a female head of state
Taiwan is not a Hindu, Jewish, Shinto or Daoist majority country, so it doesn’t disprove what I said. However, I was not aware of that welcome change in Taiwan. Thanks for bringing it to my attention.
As I said, Israel and India do not have same sex marriage.
There are several Muslim countries that have had female heads of state as well, like Bangladesh, Pakistan, Indonesia, Mali, Senegal, Kyrgyzstan and Tunisia.
Israel recognises same sex civil unions and they are now protected by a supreme court ruling. My wife's cousin had a lesbian civil union ceremony performed over a video link in Tel Aviv a year or so ago before the war started. It's convoluted but Israel basically has gay marriage, or at least gay people in Israel are able to have all the same rights as straight people.
Indeed
And yet.... Queers for Palestine. And waving Hamas, Houthi and Hezbollah symbols and flags, despite the fact Hamas would slaughter them in short order
The galaxies weep
It's just ridiculous, another think that bothers me is that he mentions "Hindu, Jewish and Shinto" countries but that's literally just India, Israel and Japan. Each of those religions get one bite at the cherry because there are no other Hindu, Jewish or Shinto countries in the world. Islam, otoh, has got the whole middle east, a big chunk of South Asia, huge parts of Africa and a small part of Europe where they are the majority and not a single country has legalised gay marriage or given gay people the same rights as straight people. There's no equivalence there between them and yet that's the kind of comparison he needs to make so that Islam seems reasonable.
My point is that the dividing line on same sex marriage in the world is not Muslim v non-Muslim, it’s Western Europe + the Americas v nearly everywhere else. Nearly all non-Muslim countries in Africa and Asia don’t have same sex marriage.
And do you want to team up with Leon, someone who thinks your children can’t count as fully British if they’re not white?
And yet some of them do? We also know that cultural values across Asia and Africa are much more conservative but as they liberalise among the younger generations some countries are starting to open up to the idea - see Israel and Thailand as examples of gay people's rights catching up with straight people's rights, I'm sure they won't be the last. Can you name even a single Islamic country where gay rights with be recognised let alone equalised with everyone else?
As for who I side with, I literally just pointed out that I'm on the same side as Tommy Robinson, it's disappointing but I'll live. As for Leon's previous comments I think they were clumsy more than racist, I don't believe he is racist at all and you've jumped on this example of poorly worded thoughts as a way to try and cancel him. It's not going to work, cancel culture is coming to an end.
COP29, which started badly with plenty of no shows, is now on the verge of a complete breakdown, and that's on top of the Commonwealth hustle and FUBAR last month:
If they are, and I fear they may well be, then our descendants are basically fucked. The high point of international cooperation has been and gone, and the future is one of nationalist insanity and environmental destruction.
Darwin got it all wrong. We're regressing.
Evolution is not teleological. Darwin never said it always means "progress or improvement"
Yes, things can zig zag. I know that.
Anyway, as I now keep saying to all and sundry, Left Populism is coming. A radical economic offer for the struggling classes without the tacky xenophobic nostalgia that defines the right wing version.
It won't get funded by billionaires (for obvious reasons) but that won't matter once it gets rolling. I'm in. ✊️🕺
(please refrain from the very tedious "lol" if you choose to reply, which you shouldn't feel you have to)
I have seen you suggest this a couple of times and I don't really get it. Left populism would be an utter disaster for all of us (see Venezuela for an obvious example).
Populism is the enemy of progress, both of the left and right variety, and I think of you as a progressive. What's going on?
I mean a politics that shifts wealth and opportunity in favour of those who are in most need without corruption or financial recklessness or xenophobic obsession with borders and immigration. Nothing like Venezuela.
What do you honestly think will happen if Britain becomes, say, 30% Muslim? Or 40%? Think about it, and be honest
At 50-60% we could even get Sharia law
I'm not aware of any large country where that has happened in modern times, though there are certain small examples. There are majoritarian Muslim smaller countries in Europe - Albania, B&H, Kosovo. I'm not sure of the status of Sharia Law in those.
Same sex marriage and civil unions are certainly illegal in Albania, same sex marriage is not legal in Kosovo or Bosnia either so even if not full Sharia LGBT rights would likely regress
LGBT rights are also limited in Serbia, Bulgaria and Romania, which are all largely Christian, so is it Islam in Albania, Bosnia and Kosovo, or something about those countries being in the Balkans?
Slovenia is in the Balkans and has same sex marriage and Croatia has civil unions. No Muslim majority nation has same sex marriage.
Women are also discouraged from working with men in the same workplaces in Islam
Slovenia and Croatia are more western looking. I referred you already to Serbia, Bulgaria and Romania. You can also add North Macedonia. Moldova, Ukraine and eastwards also have no recognition of same sex marriages. Rights are limited in Slovakia, Poland and Lithuania. The dividing line in Europe is clearly not Muslim/non-Muslim.
Not a single Muslim majority nation on earth has same sex marriage, same sex unions or a female head of state or government.
The dividing line globally is clearly Muslim/non Muslim
Not a single Hindu, Jewish, Shinto or Daoist majority country has same sex marriage. Same sex marriage is largely confined to Western Europe and the Americas, with a few exceptions.
Taiwan has same sex marriage now. Israel has cohabitation rights for same sex couples. Even several Indian states give same sex couples cohabitation rights. India and Israel have also had female PMs and India a female head of state
Taiwan is not a Hindu, Jewish, Shinto or Daoist majority country, so it doesn’t disprove what I said. However, I was not aware of that welcome change in Taiwan. Thanks for bringing it to my attention.
As I said, Israel and India do not have same sex marriage.
There are several Muslim countries that have had female heads of state as well, like Bangladesh, Pakistan, Indonesia, Mali, Senegal, Kyrgyzstan and Tunisia.
Israel recognises same sex civil unions and they are now protected by a supreme court ruling. My wife's cousin had a lesbian civil union ceremony performed over a video link in Tel Aviv a year or so ago before the war started. It's convoluted but Israel basically has gay marriage, or at least gay people in Israel are able to have all the same rights as straight people.
Indeed
And yet.... Queers for Palestine. And waving Hamas, Houthi and Hezbollah symbols and flags, despite the fact Hamas would slaughter them in short order
The galaxies weep
It's just ridiculous, another think that bothers me is that he mentions "Hindu, Jewish and Shinto" countries but that's literally just India, Israel and Japan. Each of those religions get one bite at the cherry because there are no other Hindu, Jewish or Shinto countries in the world. Islam, otoh, has got the whole middle east, a big chunk of South Asia, huge parts of Africa and a small part of Europe where they are the majority and not a single country has legalised gay marriage or given gay people the same rights as straight people. There's no equivalence there between them and yet that's the kind of comparison he needs to make so that Islam seems reasonable.
My point is that the dividing line on same sex marriage in the world is not Muslim v non-Muslim, it’s Western Europe + the Americas v nearly everywhere else. Nearly all non-Muslim countries in Africa and Asia don’t have same sex marriage.
And do you want to team up with Leon, someone who thinks your children can’t count as fully British if they’re not white?
South Africa has same sex marriage and is majority Christian
COP29, which started badly with plenty of no shows, is now on the verge of a complete breakdown, and that's on top of the Commonwealth hustle and FUBAR last month:
If they are, and I fear they may well be, then our descendants are basically fucked. The high point of international cooperation has been and gone, and the future is one of nationalist insanity and environmental destruction.
Darwin got it all wrong. We're regressing.
Evolution is not teleological. Darwin never said it always means "progress or improvement"
Yes, things can zig zag. I know that.
Anyway, as I now keep saying to all and sundry, Left Populism is coming. A radical economic offer for the struggling classes without the tacky xenophobic nostalgia that defines the right wing version.
It won't get funded by billionaires (for obvious reasons) but that won't matter once it gets rolling. I'm in. ✊️🕺
(please refrain from the very tedious "lol" if you choose to reply, which you shouldn't feel you have to)
I have seen you suggest this a couple of times and I don't really get it. Left populism would be an utter disaster for all of us (see Venezuela for an obvious example).
Populism is the enemy of progress, both of the left and right variety, and I think of you as a progressive. What's going on?
I mean a politics that shifts wealth and opportunity in favour of those who are in most need without corruption or financial recklessness or xenophobic obsession with borders and immigration. Nothing like Venezuela.
What do you honestly think will happen if Britain becomes, say, 30% Muslim? Or 40%? Think about it, and be honest
At 50-60% we could even get Sharia law
I'm not aware of any large country where that has happened in modern times, though there are certain small examples. There are majoritarian Muslim smaller countries in Europe - Albania, B&H, Kosovo. I'm not sure of the status of Sharia Law in those.
Same sex marriage and civil unions are certainly illegal in Albania, same sex marriage is not legal in Kosovo or Bosnia either so even if not full Sharia LGBT rights would likely regress
LGBT rights are also limited in Serbia, Bulgaria and Romania, which are all largely Christian, so is it Islam in Albania, Bosnia and Kosovo, or something about those countries being in the Balkans?
Slovenia is in the Balkans and has same sex marriage and Croatia has civil unions. No Muslim majority nation has same sex marriage.
Women are also discouraged from working with men in the same workplaces in Islam
Slovenia and Croatia are more western looking. I referred you already to Serbia, Bulgaria and Romania. You can also add North Macedonia. Moldova, Ukraine and eastwards also have no recognition of same sex marriages. Rights are limited in Slovakia, Poland and Lithuania. The dividing line in Europe is clearly not Muslim/non-Muslim.
Not a single Muslim majority nation on earth has same sex marriage, same sex unions or a female head of state or government.
The dividing line globally is clearly Muslim/non Muslim
Not a single Hindu, Jewish, Shinto or Daoist majority country has same sex marriage. Same sex marriage is largely confined to Western Europe and the Americas, with a few exceptions.
Taiwan has same sex marriage now. Israel has cohabitation rights for same sex couples. Even several Indian states give same sex couples cohabitation rights. India and Israel have also had female PMs and India a female head of state
Taiwan is not a Hindu, Jewish, Shinto or Daoist majority country, so it doesn’t disprove what I said. However, I was not aware of that welcome change in Taiwan. Thanks for bringing it to my attention.
As I said, Israel and India do not have same sex marriage.
There are several Muslim countries that have had female heads of state as well, like Bangladesh, Pakistan, Indonesia, Mali, Senegal, Kyrgyzstan and Tunisia.
Israel recognises same sex civil unions and they are now protected by a supreme court ruling. My wife's cousin had a lesbian civil union ceremony performed over a video link in Tel Aviv a year or so ago before the war started. It's convoluted but Israel basically has gay marriage, or at least gay people in Israel are able to have all the same rights as straight people.
Indeed
And yet.... Queers for Palestine. And waving Hamas, Houthi and Hezbollah symbols and flags, despite the fact Hamas would slaughter them in short order
The galaxies weep
It's just ridiculous, another think that bothers me is that he mentions "Hindu, Jewish and Shinto" countries but that's literally just India, Israel and Japan. Each of those religions get one bite at the cherry because there are no other Hindu, Jewish or Shinto countries in the world. Islam, otoh, has got the whole middle east, a big chunk of South Asia, huge parts of Africa and a small part of Europe where they are the majority and not a single country has legalised gay marriage or given gay people the same rights as straight people. There's no equivalence there between them and yet that's the kind of comparison he needs to make so that Islam seems reasonable.
My point is that the dividing line on same sex marriage in the world is not Muslim v non-Muslim, it’s Western Europe + the Americas v nearly everywhere else. Nearly all non-Muslim countries in Africa and Asia don’t have same sex marriage.
And do you want to team up with Leon, someone who thinks your children can’t count as fully British if they’re not white?
South Africa has same sex marriage and is majority Christian
Uganda actively persecutes gays and is majority Christian.
COP29, which started badly with plenty of no shows, is now on the verge of a complete breakdown, and that's on top of the Commonwealth hustle and FUBAR last month:
If they are, and I fear they may well be, then our descendants are basically fucked. The high point of international cooperation has been and gone, and the future is one of nationalist insanity and environmental destruction.
Darwin got it all wrong. We're regressing.
Evolution is not teleological. Darwin never said it always means "progress or improvement"
Yes, things can zig zag. I know that.
Anyway, as I now keep saying to all and sundry, Left Populism is coming. A radical economic offer for the struggling classes without the tacky xenophobic nostalgia that defines the right wing version.
It won't get funded by billionaires (for obvious reasons) but that won't matter once it gets rolling. I'm in. ✊️🕺
(please refrain from the very tedious "lol" if you choose to reply, which you shouldn't feel you have to)
I have seen you suggest this a couple of times and I don't really get it. Left populism would be an utter disaster for all of us (see Venezuela for an obvious example).
Populism is the enemy of progress, both of the left and right variety, and I think of you as a progressive. What's going on?
I mean a politics that shifts wealth and opportunity in favour of those who are in most need without corruption or financial recklessness or xenophobic obsession with borders and immigration. Nothing like Venezuela.
What do you honestly think will happen if Britain becomes, say, 30% Muslim? Or 40%? Think about it, and be honest
At 50-60% we could even get Sharia law
I'm not aware of any large country where that has happened in modern times, though there are certain small examples. There are majoritarian Muslim smaller countries in Europe - Albania, B&H, Kosovo. I'm not sure of the status of Sharia Law in those.
Same sex marriage and civil unions are certainly illegal in Albania, same sex marriage is not legal in Kosovo or Bosnia either so even if not full Sharia LGBT rights would likely regress
LGBT rights are also limited in Serbia, Bulgaria and Romania, which are all largely Christian, so is it Islam in Albania, Bosnia and Kosovo, or something about those countries being in the Balkans?
Slovenia is in the Balkans and has same sex marriage and Croatia has civil unions. No Muslim majority nation has same sex marriage.
Women are also discouraged from working with men in the same workplaces in Islam
Slovenia and Croatia are more western looking. I referred you already to Serbia, Bulgaria and Romania. You can also add North Macedonia. Moldova, Ukraine and eastwards also have no recognition of same sex marriages. Rights are limited in Slovakia, Poland and Lithuania. The dividing line in Europe is clearly not Muslim/non-Muslim.
Not a single Muslim majority nation on earth has same sex marriage, same sex unions or a female head of state or government.
The dividing line globally is clearly Muslim/non Muslim
Not a single Hindu, Jewish, Shinto or Daoist majority country has same sex marriage. Same sex marriage is largely confined to Western Europe and the Americas, with a few exceptions.
What in the name of holy Christological fuck is a "Shinto-majority country"?
The nonsense "non-racist" way of saying East Asian countries.
No. Shinto is largely confined to Japan. Japan is the only Shinto-majority country in the world.
East Asia is religiously diverse, but Buddhism is probably commonest. Most Buddhist-majority countries don’t have same sex marriage either… but one does! Thailand.
I'm sure you'd do well on Mastermind but on the core issue of the clash between Islam and the west, it appears you have nothing to say.
I think talking about a clash between Islam and the West is simplistic nonsense. What’s the biggest conflict in the world right now? Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Not Islam v the West.
Second biggest? Israel fighting in Gaza and Lebanon. Does Israel count as the West?
Third biggest is the civil war in Myanmar, then next is conflict in the Maghreb (mostly Muslim v Muslim), then the Sudanese civil war, and so on.
If you want to draw out themes, there’s a Saudi/Sunni v Iran/Shi’a conflict with proxy wars in various places and which is driving some of the Israel/Gaza/Lebanon war. There is still a Russia and China versus the West theme that’s carried over from the Cold War.
Israel culturally is certainly the West.
You are ignoring demographic change too
Israel culturally is not the west, is the view of a dear friend of mine who recently moved from Israel to the UK.
I don’t see what demographic change has to do with it.
Your friend is wrong.
Israel absolutely 100% is western.
El Al offers only kosher in-flight meals, and does not fly passengers on the Jewish Shabbat or other religious holidays.
It's no wonder the flights to the Western Isles are so iffy.
Is anyone really that interested in the royals these days? I quite like Chazzy Boy as a bloke and Wills seems like a decent sort. But the whole institution is cruel for those who are born into it. A dreadful life in the goldfish bowl. Time to move on.
Never thought you’d want Boris or Farage as President
COP29, which started badly with plenty of no shows, is now on the verge of a complete breakdown, and that's on top of the Commonwealth hustle and FUBAR last month:
If they are, and I fear they may well be, then our descendants are basically fucked. The high point of international cooperation has been and gone, and the future is one of nationalist insanity and environmental destruction.
Darwin got it all wrong. We're regressing.
Evolution is not teleological. Darwin never said it always means "progress or improvement"
Yes, things can zig zag. I know that.
Anyway, as I now keep saying to all and sundry, Left Populism is coming. A radical economic offer for the struggling classes without the tacky xenophobic nostalgia that defines the right wing version.
It won't get funded by billionaires (for obvious reasons) but that won't matter once it gets rolling. I'm in. ✊️🕺
(please refrain from the very tedious "lol" if you choose to reply, which you shouldn't feel you have to)
I have seen you suggest this a couple of times and I don't really get it. Left populism would be an utter disaster for all of us (see Venezuela for an obvious example).
Populism is the enemy of progress, both of the left and right variety, and I think of you as a progressive. What's going on?
I mean a politics that shifts wealth and opportunity in favour of those who are in most need without corruption or financial recklessness or xenophobic obsession with borders and immigration. Nothing like Venezuela.
What do you honestly think will happen if Britain becomes, say, 30% Muslim? Or 40%? Think about it, and be honest
At 50-60% we could even get Sharia law
Um… who was saying they haven’t seen much evidence of Great Replacement Theory cropping up on PB?
What's the difference between a conspiracy theory and a projection of current trends?
From the 2001 to the 2021 census, Islam went from 2.7% to 5.97%, so that’s an increase of 3.27%, or 0.16% per year. If we project that trend forward, the UK will reach 50% Muslim in 269 more years. That is, in 2290. I think it unlikely any trend would actually continue for over two and a half centuries.
That’s the difference between a conspiracy theory and a projection of current trends.
That is pretty poor analysis from someone who has told us (s)he's an FRSS (Fellow of the Royal Statistical Society). Your assumption of linear growth in the proportion is obviously incorrect - what happens when you hit 100%? A better model (not the only one possible) takes the finite limit into account by using log-odds rather than proportions In 2001 log-odds = ln(0.027/(1-0.027)) ≈ -3.58 In 2021 log-odds = ln(0.0597/(1-0.0597)) ≈ -2.75 -> an increase of 0.83 over 20 years, i.e. about 0.0415 per year on the log-odds scale. If you want to project this forwards then the future proportion = 1/(1 + e^(-log-odds)) So to get to 50% Muslim, the log-odds would be ln(0.5/0.5) = 0 Starting from 2021's log-odds of -2.75, increasing by 0.0415 per year: we get Number of years = (0 - (-2.75))/0.0415 ≈ 66.3 years, i.e. in 2087
Add in that the rate of Muslim immigration has risen in the last few years not gone down. So 2087 is a conservative timeframe, we're looking at the 2060s if nothing changes from today.
Add in the generational differences too, the percentage of young people being Muslim is quite different to the percentage of old people who are, and its not old people who are having future generation's kids.
I'd be quite intrigued to know what percentage of eg school age children are Muslim as compared to what percentage of the overall population are. From Google it seems that 1/12 were nearly a decade ago, which completely dwarfs the 5.97% in 2021 that @bondegezou claimed. I can't find any more recent data than that, but I imagine its trended only one way.
“claimed”? Are you saying the census figures are wrong? Or that I’m lying about them?
No, I'm saying you are using them falsely.
To extrapolate from current data that averages everyone, young and old, and extrapolating that trends will continue is a complete misuse of statistics.
It doesn't matter a jot the demographics of people 50+ let along 70+ as they're not the ones having kids (barring odd exceptions).
If there is a major difference between young and old, then the future trends to the young, not the old.
Is anyone really that interested in the royals these days? I quite like Chazzy Boy as a bloke and Wills seems like a decent sort. But the whole institution is cruel for those who are born into it. A dreadful life in the goldfish bowl. Time to move on.
Never thought you’d want Boris or Farage as President
COP29, which started badly with plenty of no shows, is now on the verge of a complete breakdown, and that's on top of the Commonwealth hustle and FUBAR last month:
If they are, and I fear they may well be, then our descendants are basically fucked. The high point of international cooperation has been and gone, and the future is one of nationalist insanity and environmental destruction.
Darwin got it all wrong. We're regressing.
Evolution is not teleological. Darwin never said it always means "progress or improvement"
Yes, things can zig zag. I know that.
Anyway, as I now keep saying to all and sundry, Left Populism is coming. A radical economic offer for the struggling classes without the tacky xenophobic nostalgia that defines the right wing version.
It won't get funded by billionaires (for obvious reasons) but that won't matter once it gets rolling. I'm in. ✊️🕺
(please refrain from the very tedious "lol" if you choose to reply, which you shouldn't feel you have to)
I have seen you suggest this a couple of times and I don't really get it. Left populism would be an utter disaster for all of us (see Venezuela for an obvious example).
Populism is the enemy of progress, both of the left and right variety, and I think of you as a progressive. What's going on?
I mean a politics that shifts wealth and opportunity in favour of those who are in most need without corruption or financial recklessness or xenophobic obsession with borders and immigration. Nothing like Venezuela.
What do you honestly think will happen if Britain becomes, say, 30% Muslim? Or 40%? Think about it, and be honest
At 50-60% we could even get Sharia law
I'm not aware of any large country where that has happened in modern times, though there are certain small examples. There are majoritarian Muslim smaller countries in Europe - Albania, B&H, Kosovo. I'm not sure of the status of Sharia Law in those.
Same sex marriage and civil unions are certainly illegal in Albania, same sex marriage is not legal in Kosovo or Bosnia either so even if not full Sharia LGBT rights would likely regress
LGBT rights are also limited in Serbia, Bulgaria and Romania, which are all largely Christian, so is it Islam in Albania, Bosnia and Kosovo, or something about those countries being in the Balkans?
Slovenia is in the Balkans and has same sex marriage and Croatia has civil unions. No Muslim majority nation has same sex marriage.
Women are also discouraged from working with men in the same workplaces in Islam
Slovenia and Croatia are more western looking. I referred you already to Serbia, Bulgaria and Romania. You can also add North Macedonia. Moldova, Ukraine and eastwards also have no recognition of same sex marriages. Rights are limited in Slovakia, Poland and Lithuania. The dividing line in Europe is clearly not Muslim/non-Muslim.
Not a single Muslim majority nation on earth has same sex marriage, same sex unions or a female head of state or government.
The dividing line globally is clearly Muslim/non Muslim
Not a single Hindu, Jewish, Shinto or Daoist majority country has same sex marriage. Same sex marriage is largely confined to Western Europe and the Americas, with a few exceptions.
Taiwan has same sex marriage now. Israel has cohabitation rights for same sex couples. Even several Indian states give same sex couples cohabitation rights. India and Israel have also had female PMs and India a female head of state
Taiwan is not a Hindu, Jewish, Shinto or Daoist majority country, so it doesn’t disprove what I said. However, I was not aware of that welcome change in Taiwan. Thanks for bringing it to my attention.
As I said, Israel and India do not have same sex marriage.
There are several Muslim countries that have had female heads of state as well, like Bangladesh, Pakistan, Indonesia, Mali, Senegal, Kyrgyzstan and Tunisia.
Israel recognises same sex civil unions and they are now protected by a supreme court ruling. My wife's cousin had a lesbian civil union ceremony performed over a video link in Tel Aviv a year or so ago before the war started. It's convoluted but Israel basically has gay marriage, or at least gay people in Israel are able to have all the same rights as straight people.
Indeed
And yet.... Queers for Palestine. And waving Hamas, Houthi and Hezbollah symbols and flags, despite the fact Hamas would slaughter them in short order
The galaxies weep
It's just ridiculous, another think that bothers me is that he mentions "Hindu, Jewish and Shinto" countries but that's literally just India, Israel and Japan. Each of those religions get one bite at the cherry because there are no other Hindu, Jewish or Shinto countries in the world. Islam, otoh, has got the whole middle east, a big chunk of South Asia, huge parts of Africa and a small part of Europe where they are the majority and not a single country has legalised gay marriage or given gay people the same rights as straight people. There's no equivalence there between them and yet that's the kind of comparison he needs to make so that Islam seems reasonable.
My point is that the dividing line on same sex marriage in the world is not Muslim v non-Muslim, it’s Western Europe + the Americas v nearly everywhere else. Nearly all non-Muslim countries in Africa and Asia don’t have same sex marriage.
And do you want to team up with Leon, someone who thinks your children can’t count as fully British if they’re not white?
I said no such thing. I said we need more white British kids (a census definition, btw: White British) because they're not having enough kids, and they are not. This is a universal lament. I also heard it in Korea - not enough Korean kids! - and Japan - not enough Japanese kids! - on my recent visits
To develop the argument, because it isn't incendiary enough, I just read an argument by an evolutiuonary psychologist arguing that fundamentalist Islam is a logical Darwinian development if you are Muslim and you see collapsing birthrates in the non Muslim world. You lock up your women and force them to have babies
COP29, which started badly with plenty of no shows, is now on the verge of a complete breakdown, and that's on top of the Commonwealth hustle and FUBAR last month:
If they are, and I fear they may well be, then our descendants are basically fucked. The high point of international cooperation has been and gone, and the future is one of nationalist insanity and environmental destruction.
Darwin got it all wrong. We're regressing.
Evolution is not teleological. Darwin never said it always means "progress or improvement"
Yes, things can zig zag. I know that.
Anyway, as I now keep saying to all and sundry, Left Populism is coming. A radical economic offer for the struggling classes without the tacky xenophobic nostalgia that defines the right wing version.
It won't get funded by billionaires (for obvious reasons) but that won't matter once it gets rolling. I'm in. ✊️🕺
(please refrain from the very tedious "lol" if you choose to reply, which you shouldn't feel you have to)
I have seen you suggest this a couple of times and I don't really get it. Left populism would be an utter disaster for all of us (see Venezuela for an obvious example).
Populism is the enemy of progress, both of the left and right variety, and I think of you as a progressive. What's going on?
I mean a politics that shifts wealth and opportunity in favour of those who are in most need without corruption or financial recklessness or xenophobic obsession with borders and immigration. Nothing like Venezuela.
What do you honestly think will happen if Britain becomes, say, 30% Muslim? Or 40%? Think about it, and be honest
At 50-60% we could even get Sharia law
I'm not aware of any large country where that has happened in modern times, though there are certain small examples. There are majoritarian Muslim smaller countries in Europe - Albania, B&H, Kosovo. I'm not sure of the status of Sharia Law in those.
Same sex marriage and civil unions are certainly illegal in Albania, same sex marriage is not legal in Kosovo or Bosnia either so even if not full Sharia LGBT rights would likely regress
LGBT rights are also limited in Serbia, Bulgaria and Romania, which are all largely Christian, so is it Islam in Albania, Bosnia and Kosovo, or something about those countries being in the Balkans?
Slovenia is in the Balkans and has same sex marriage and Croatia has civil unions. No Muslim majority nation has same sex marriage.
Women are also discouraged from working with men in the same workplaces in Islam
Slovenia and Croatia are more western looking. I referred you already to Serbia, Bulgaria and Romania. You can also add North Macedonia. Moldova, Ukraine and eastwards also have no recognition of same sex marriages. Rights are limited in Slovakia, Poland and Lithuania. The dividing line in Europe is clearly not Muslim/non-Muslim.
Not a single Muslim majority nation on earth has same sex marriage, same sex unions or a female head of state or government.
The dividing line globally is clearly Muslim/non Muslim
Not a single Hindu, Jewish, Shinto or Daoist majority country has same sex marriage. Same sex marriage is largely confined to Western Europe and the Americas, with a few exceptions.
Taiwan has same sex marriage now. Israel has cohabitation rights for same sex couples. Even several Indian states give same sex couples cohabitation rights. India and Israel have also had female PMs and India a female head of state
Taiwan is not a Hindu, Jewish, Shinto or Daoist majority country, so it doesn’t disprove what I said. However, I was not aware of that welcome change in Taiwan. Thanks for bringing it to my attention.
As I said, Israel and India do not have same sex marriage.
There are several Muslim countries that have had female heads of state as well, like Bangladesh, Pakistan, Indonesia, Mali, Senegal, Kyrgyzstan and Tunisia.
Israel recognises same sex civil unions and they are now protected by a supreme court ruling. My wife's cousin had a lesbian civil union ceremony performed over a video link in Tel Aviv a year or so ago before the war started. It's convoluted but Israel basically has gay marriage, or at least gay people in Israel are able to have all the same rights as straight people.
Indeed
And yet.... Queers for Palestine. And waving Hamas, Houthi and Hezbollah symbols and flags, despite the fact Hamas would slaughter them in short order
The galaxies weep
It's just ridiculous, another think that bothers me is that he mentions "Hindu, Jewish and Shinto" countries but that's literally just India, Israel and Japan. Each of those religions get one bite at the cherry because there are no other Hindu, Jewish or Shinto countries in the world. Islam, otoh, has got the whole middle east, a big chunk of South Asia, huge parts of Africa and a small part of Europe where they are the majority and not a single country has legalised gay marriage or given gay people the same rights as straight people. There's no equivalence there between them and yet that's the kind of comparison he needs to make so that Islam seems reasonable.
My point is that the dividing line on same sex marriage in the world is not Muslim v non-Muslim, it’s Western Europe + the Americas v nearly everywhere else. Nearly all non-Muslim countries in Africa and Asia don’t have same sex marriage.
And do you want to team up with Leon, someone who thinks your children can’t count as fully British if they’re not white?
COP29, which started badly with plenty of no shows, is now on the verge of a complete breakdown, and that's on top of the Commonwealth hustle and FUBAR last month:
If they are, and I fear they may well be, then our descendants are basically fucked. The high point of international cooperation has been and gone, and the future is one of nationalist insanity and environmental destruction.
Darwin got it all wrong. We're regressing.
Evolution is not teleological. Darwin never said it always means "progress or improvement"
Yes, things can zig zag. I know that.
Anyway, as I now keep saying to all and sundry, Left Populism is coming. A radical economic offer for the struggling classes without the tacky xenophobic nostalgia that defines the right wing version.
It won't get funded by billionaires (for obvious reasons) but that won't matter once it gets rolling. I'm in. ✊️🕺
(please refrain from the very tedious "lol" if you choose to reply, which you shouldn't feel you have to)
I have seen you suggest this a couple of times and I don't really get it. Left populism would be an utter disaster for all of us (see Venezuela for an obvious example).
Populism is the enemy of progress, both of the left and right variety, and I think of you as a progressive. What's going on?
I mean a politics that shifts wealth and opportunity in favour of those who are in most need without corruption or financial recklessness or xenophobic obsession with borders and immigration. Nothing like Venezuela.
What do you honestly think will happen if Britain becomes, say, 30% Muslim? Or 40%? Think about it, and be honest
At 50-60% we could even get Sharia law
Um… who was saying they haven’t seen much evidence of Great Replacement Theory cropping up on PB?
What's the difference between a conspiracy theory and a projection of current trends?
From the 2001 to the 2021 census, Islam went from 2.7% to 5.97%, so that’s an increase of 3.27%, or 0.16% per year. If we project that trend forward, the UK will reach 50% Muslim in 269 more years. That is, in 2290. I think it unlikely any trend would actually continue for over two and a half centuries.
That’s the difference between a conspiracy theory and a projection of current trends.
That is pretty poor analysis from someone who has told us (s)he's an FRSS (Fellow of the Royal Statistical Society). Your assumption of linear growth in the proportion is obviously incorrect - what happens when you hit 100%? A better model (not the only one possible) takes the finite limit into account by using log-odds rather than proportions In 2001 log-odds = ln(0.027/(1-0.027)) ≈ -3.58 In 2021 log-odds = ln(0.0597/(1-0.0597)) ≈ -2.75 -> an increase of 0.83 over 20 years, i.e. about 0.0415 per year on the log-odds scale. If you want to project this forwards then the future proportion = 1/(1 + e^(-log-odds)) So to get to 50% Muslim, the log-odds would be ln(0.5/0.5) = 0 Starting from 2021's log-odds of -2.75, increasing by 0.0415 per year: we get Number of years = (0 - (-2.75))/0.0415 ≈ 66.3 years, i.e. in 2087
Add in that the rate of Muslim immigration has risen in the last few years not gone down. So 2087 is a conservative timeframe, we're looking at the 2060s if nothing changes from today.
Moreover, as soon as Muslims caucus as a religious voting group (as is entirely their right in a democracy, and as now seems to be happening in the UK) then they can quickly alter the political complexion of that society long before they reach 50% of the entire population
As jut 15-20% of the electorate, if a Muslim minority votes en masse for a "Muslim party" that entirely changes British politics. Any new govenrment would have to take into account their views, and indeed enact some of their policies/attitudes
We can see what UKIP did to Britain with similar numbers, they basically got Brexit
So if I was gay, or indeed female, I would be scared of a Muslim population exceeding 15%, let alone 50%. That's democracy
At that point, all you have left is the pious hope that 2nd 3rd and 4th generation Muslims become less Muslim. But that does not seem to be happening, indeed the opposite. So this is not something to worry about in 40 years, it is something to worry about in 10-20 years, if not sooner
And that's the issue that @isam used to raise and he was/is right. Our politics is on the cusp of changing for good. We got a taste of it this time with the Gaza voters coalescing around mostly Muslim candidates and fellow travellers like Jez and George Galloway. Next time there will be a sectarian Muslim party, after that they'll get some votes and the time after that they'll get lots of votes and Labour will have to go into coalition with them to get into power.
A minor point of order. I'd maybe say Jez was a true believer. I think George would just blow with whatever wind is in his electoral/publicity favour. Maybe he'll end up leading The Knights Of God one day. Who can say. Anything's better than the cat jumpsuit.
COP29, which started badly with plenty of no shows, is now on the verge of a complete breakdown, and that's on top of the Commonwealth hustle and FUBAR last month:
If they are, and I fear they may well be, then our descendants are basically fucked. The high point of international cooperation has been and gone, and the future is one of nationalist insanity and environmental destruction.
Darwin got it all wrong. We're regressing.
Evolution is not teleological. Darwin never said it always means "progress or improvement"
Yes, things can zig zag. I know that.
Anyway, as I now keep saying to all and sundry, Left Populism is coming. A radical economic offer for the struggling classes without the tacky xenophobic nostalgia that defines the right wing version.
It won't get funded by billionaires (for obvious reasons) but that won't matter once it gets rolling. I'm in. ✊️🕺
(please refrain from the very tedious "lol" if you choose to reply, which you shouldn't feel you have to)
I have seen you suggest this a couple of times and I don't really get it. Left populism would be an utter disaster for all of us (see Venezuela for an obvious example).
Populism is the enemy of progress, both of the left and right variety, and I think of you as a progressive. What's going on?
I mean a politics that shifts wealth and opportunity in favour of those who are in most need without corruption or financial recklessness or xenophobic obsession with borders and immigration. Nothing like Venezuela.
What do you honestly think will happen if Britain becomes, say, 30% Muslim? Or 40%? Think about it, and be honest
At 50-60% we could even get Sharia law
I'm not aware of any large country where that has happened in modern times, though there are certain small examples. There are majoritarian Muslim smaller countries in Europe - Albania, B&H, Kosovo. I'm not sure of the status of Sharia Law in those.
Same sex marriage and civil unions are certainly illegal in Albania, same sex marriage is not legal in Kosovo or Bosnia either so even if not full Sharia LGBT rights would likely regress
LGBT rights are also limited in Serbia, Bulgaria and Romania, which are all largely Christian, so is it Islam in Albania, Bosnia and Kosovo, or something about those countries being in the Balkans?
Slovenia is in the Balkans and has same sex marriage and Croatia has civil unions. No Muslim majority nation has same sex marriage.
Women are also discouraged from working with men in the same workplaces in Islam
Slovenia and Croatia are more western looking. I referred you already to Serbia, Bulgaria and Romania. You can also add North Macedonia. Moldova, Ukraine and eastwards also have no recognition of same sex marriages. Rights are limited in Slovakia, Poland and Lithuania. The dividing line in Europe is clearly not Muslim/non-Muslim.
Not a single Muslim majority nation on earth has same sex marriage, same sex unions or a female head of state or government.
The dividing line globally is clearly Muslim/non Muslim
Not a single Hindu, Jewish, Shinto or Daoist majority country has same sex marriage. Same sex marriage is largely confined to Western Europe and the Americas, with a few exceptions.
Taiwan has same sex marriage now. Israel has cohabitation rights for same sex couples. Even several Indian states give same sex couples cohabitation rights. India and Israel have also had female PMs and India a female head of state
Taiwan is not a Hindu, Jewish, Shinto or Daoist majority country, so it doesn’t disprove what I said. However, I was not aware of that welcome change in Taiwan. Thanks for bringing it to my attention.
As I said, Israel and India do not have same sex marriage.
There are several Muslim countries that have had female heads of state as well, like Bangladesh, Pakistan, Indonesia, Mali, Senegal, Kyrgyzstan and Tunisia.
Israel recognises same sex civil unions and they are now protected by a supreme court ruling. My wife's cousin had a lesbian civil union ceremony performed over a video link in Tel Aviv a year or so ago before the war started. It's convoluted but Israel basically has gay marriage, or at least gay people in Israel are able to have all the same rights as straight people.
Indeed
And yet.... Queers for Palestine. And waving Hamas, Houthi and Hezbollah symbols and flags, despite the fact Hamas would slaughter them in short order
The galaxies weep
It's just ridiculous, another think that bothers me is that he mentions "Hindu, Jewish and Shinto" countries but that's literally just India, Israel and Japan. Each of those religions get one bite at the cherry because there are no other Hindu, Jewish or Shinto countries in the world. Islam, otoh, has got the whole middle east, a big chunk of South Asia, huge parts of Africa and a small part of Europe where they are the majority and not a single country has legalised gay marriage or given gay people the same rights as straight people. There's no equivalence there between them and yet that's the kind of comparison he needs to make so that Islam seems reasonable.
My point is that the dividing line on same sex marriage in the world is not Muslim v non-Muslim, it’s Western Europe + the Americas v nearly everywhere else. Nearly all non-Muslim countries in Africa and Asia don’t have same sex marriage.
And do you want to team up with Leon, someone who thinks your children can’t count as fully British if they’re not white?
Taiwan does. But then Taiwan's fucking cool.
If a plane crashes on the Ukraine/Republic of China border, where do you bury the survivors?
A group of nearly 30 parents and former teachers has spoken out about treatment of children at Mossbourne Victoria Park academy (MVPA) in Hackney.
The secondary school, rated outstanding by Ofsted and known for its high examination grades and tough discipline, is in the same federation as the acclaimed Mossbourne Community academy, also in Hackney and originally run by Sir Michael Wilshaw, the former chief inspector of schools for England who led Ofsted from 2012 to 2016.
A dossier of allegations about children’s experiences at the academy, shared with the Observer, includes first years being “screamed at” by senior leaders and five accounts of secondary-age pupils with no prior incontinence issues soiling themselves, or menstruating through their uniforms, because they were not allowed to go to the toilet or were too scared to ask...
COP29, which started badly with plenty of no shows, is now on the verge of a complete breakdown, and that's on top of the Commonwealth hustle and FUBAR last month:
If they are, and I fear they may well be, then our descendants are basically fucked. The high point of international cooperation has been and gone, and the future is one of nationalist insanity and environmental destruction.
Darwin got it all wrong. We're regressing.
Evolution is not teleological. Darwin never said it always means "progress or improvement"
Yes, things can zig zag. I know that.
Anyway, as I now keep saying to all and sundry, Left Populism is coming. A radical economic offer for the struggling classes without the tacky xenophobic nostalgia that defines the right wing version.
It won't get funded by billionaires (for obvious reasons) but that won't matter once it gets rolling. I'm in. ✊️🕺
(please refrain from the very tedious "lol" if you choose to reply, which you shouldn't feel you have to)
I have seen you suggest this a couple of times and I don't really get it. Left populism would be an utter disaster for all of us (see Venezuela for an obvious example).
Populism is the enemy of progress, both of the left and right variety, and I think of you as a progressive. What's going on?
I mean a politics that shifts wealth and opportunity in favour of those who are in most need without corruption or financial recklessness or xenophobic obsession with borders and immigration. Nothing like Venezuela.
What do you honestly think will happen if Britain becomes, say, 30% Muslim? Or 40%? Think about it, and be honest
At 50-60% we could even get Sharia law
Have you ever met a muslim? Good grief you sometimes spout a load of bollocks.
COP29, which started badly with plenty of no shows, is now on the verge of a complete breakdown, and that's on top of the Commonwealth hustle and FUBAR last month:
If they are, and I fear they may well be, then our descendants are basically fucked. The high point of international cooperation has been and gone, and the future is one of nationalist insanity and environmental destruction.
Darwin got it all wrong. We're regressing.
Evolution is not teleological. Darwin never said it always means "progress or improvement"
Yes, things can zig zag. I know that.
Anyway, as I now keep saying to all and sundry, Left Populism is coming. A radical economic offer for the struggling classes without the tacky xenophobic nostalgia that defines the right wing version.
It won't get funded by billionaires (for obvious reasons) but that won't matter once it gets rolling. I'm in. ✊️🕺
(please refrain from the very tedious "lol" if you choose to reply, which you shouldn't feel you have to)
I have seen you suggest this a couple of times and I don't really get it. Left populism would be an utter disaster for all of us (see Venezuela for an obvious example).
Populism is the enemy of progress, both of the left and right variety, and I think of you as a progressive. What's going on?
I mean a politics that shifts wealth and opportunity in favour of those who are in most need without corruption or financial recklessness or xenophobic obsession with borders and immigration. Nothing like Venezuela.
What do you honestly think will happen if Britain becomes, say, 30% Muslim? Or 40%? Think about it, and be honest
At 50-60% we could even get Sharia law
Um… who was saying they haven’t seen much evidence of Great Replacement Theory cropping up on PB?
What's the difference between a conspiracy theory and a projection of current trends?
From the 2001 to the 2021 census, Islam went from 2.7% to 5.97%, so that’s an increase of 3.27%, or 0.16% per year. If we project that trend forward, the UK will reach 50% Muslim in 269 more years. That is, in 2290. I think it unlikely any trend would actually continue for over two and a half centuries.
That’s the difference between a conspiracy theory and a projection of current trends.
That is pretty poor analysis from someone who has told us (s)he's an FRSS (Fellow of the Royal Statistical Society). Your assumption of linear growth in the proportion is obviously incorrect - what happens when you hit 100%? A better model (not the only one possible) takes the finite limit into account by using log-odds rather than proportions In 2001 log-odds = ln(0.027/(1-0.027)) ≈ -3.58 In 2021 log-odds = ln(0.0597/(1-0.0597)) ≈ -2.75 -> an increase of 0.83 over 20 years, i.e. about 0.0415 per year on the log-odds scale. If you want to project this forwards then the future proportion = 1/(1 + e^(-log-odds)) So to get to 50% Muslim, the log-odds would be ln(0.5/0.5) = 0 Starting from 2021's log-odds of -2.75, increasing by 0.0415 per year: we get Number of years = (0 - (-2.75))/0.0415 ≈ 66.3 years, i.e. in 2087
The sums may be fancier than the post you replied to, but do you really think a little maths based on just two points in time can predict the future?
How can the maths take into account predictions for a falling birth rate amongst UK Muslims? How can it take into account immigration policy? Were there factors within those twenty years which won't be repeated?
I'm sure it's possible to make some kind of prediction which may turn out to be vaguely accurate by taking into account a lot more data. However it still also include a hell of a lot of fortune telling, and certainly won't be summed up by a few lines of maths.
Comments
Wow. Those guys have *really* serious problems.
BTW; how many deaths were there in these 13 attacks, just to put things in context for us.
Please, take your time.
Is anyone really that interested in the royals these days? I quite like Chazzy Boy as a bloke and Wills seems like a decent sort. But the whole institution is cruel for those who are born into it. A dreadful life in the goldfish bowl. Time to move on.
"Norway is mercifully free of terror attacks, and of course Breivik was the worst by far"
I don’t think the Tories are racist. (Some Tories are racist. Some Labour supporters are racist.)
We haven’t let in “millions of people who are opposed to our cultural values”. That’s just more scaremongering.
Islam is not a “stone age religion”. It is a more recent religion than Christianity or Hinduism or Buddhism.
I understand why you have scepticism but for me Islam is a religion that is never going to have a "reformation", the idea is antithetical to the religion and in the UK as you note, younger generations are more conservative than their parents and grandparents who lived under Islamic rule and escaped from it, but their kids have been fed a diet of poison in foreign funded mosques and on social media so they've become more militant and less likely to identify with British culture and more likely to hate those values and the people who follow them.
"Islam is not a “stone age religion”. It is a more recent religion than Christianity or Hinduism or Buddhism."
I humbly submit that this deliciously insane statement be preserved in amber in the *PB Museum of Insane Quotations by Desperate Lefties*; it should stand alongside @Roger's response to the Northern Rock bank run in 2007, that "this will all be forgotten by Friday"
Not good.
Though just does beg the question why Leon and the rest don't buy a place in Kemnay or something.
These, together with the fact the US says it doesn't know what they are, sound very similar to what has been seen over U.S. bases over the last year. I don't want to disrupt people's peaceful Sarurday night too much, buy they not actually be drones, or anything that we can currently understand.
Apart from, tangentially, this one, obvs.
This isn't your best day on PB, is it?
And do you not understand the concept of proportionality? Until very recently the Muslim population in Europe was minimal.
Tanzania is 48.9% Muslim. It is the largest religion in the country. It’s President is Samia Suluhu Hassan, a Muslim woman.
Tunisia’s President was a woman until 2023.
East Asia is religiously diverse, but Buddhism is probably commonest. Most Buddhist-majority countries don’t have same sex marriage either… but one does! Thailand.
Probably the best bet is a Tory-Reform Coalition, with a Tory PM to rein in the Putinite crap but Reform having the cullions to end Hate Speech Laws, explicitly restrict migration, brusquely repress the boats. It may suit both parties. Reform can get the credit for being genuinely tough, the Tories can get the credit for the softer economic stuff and domesticating Reform
Overall, I cannot see this Labour government winning a second term, despite their huge majority. They are so useless already, and there is no apparent way they can improve. Zero ideas, zero charisma. So the British electorate will likely swing hard to the right in the next election (like almost every other western nation). It just depends how hard they swing
We probably need a plan to rebuild the army, navy and to some extent the air force (this is a trickier one that I'll come back to) over a 5-10 year period, with an industrial strategy to boot, otherwise any extra money will simply be absorbed by inflation. On top, we'd need software integration of the defence platforms. Strategic objective should be to protect international and global trade, global stability and British interests worldwide as well as deter a serious "hot" war on the continent or near east, with a large sized force, and the option of a long-term medium sized deployment overseas.
RAF: hypersonic and drone defences, which might be more where the modern RAF needs to go on top of Tempest, if it's still valid, and additional strike capability. I doubt seven front-line squadrons are enough. Of course, we need maritime aircraft.
Royal Navy: is in a pitiful state. The 1998 SDR projected reducing the fleet of frigates and destroyers from 35 to 32. And we were supposed to get 12 x Type 45 destroyers. But we now actually only have 6 and, I think now, only 12 x frigates, most of which can't put to sea, and 6 x functional HK subs. We need to get back up to 12 x destroyers, 20 x frigates, 12 x attack submarines, four x strategic subs, two amphibious platforms, and a RFA that can sustain them all. We can deploy a serious carrier battlegroup with reserves at any time. Big expansion.
British Army: in an even more pitiful state. At almost every level. Where do you start? Ammo, artillery, fighting vehicles, APCs, tanks and infantry all well below even the most basic establishment levels. The BAOR was about 50k men right though the 1980s and British Forces Germany still 25k men in the 1990s. Whatever way I look at it I think we need the capability for the deployment of two fully equipped heavy war-fighting divisions, with another in reserve and another in training. It probably needs to go back up to about 125,000 regulars which is an expansion of 50,000 men. Massive.
But my fag packet calculations are that we'd need to probably spend 3.5% of GDP ultimately to do all that. So the defence budget need to rise from £57bn per year to about £88-89bn per year or about a 30-32bn increase each year.
I can get there with 2p on the basic rate and the higher rate, so 22p becomes the new basic rate and 42p become the higher rate and 47p the new top rate (raises about £20bn of that) and ending the triple lock (saves about £10bn).
The more I think about it the more I think we have to do it, and start arguing for it.
I could live with that. You?
As I said, Israel and India do not have same sex marriage.
There are several Muslim countries that have had female heads of state as well, like Bangladesh, Pakistan, Indonesia, Mali, Senegal, Kyrgyzstan and Tunisia.
Some familiar faces here.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0U9ml6RZO70
And yet.... Queers for Palestine. And waving Hamas, Houthi and Hezbollah symbols and flags, despite the fact Hamas would slaughter them in short order
The galaxies weep
In 2001 log-odds = ln(0.027/(1-0.027)) ≈ -3.58
In 2021 log-odds = ln(0.0597/(1-0.0597)) ≈ -2.75
-> an increase of 0.83 over 20 years, i.e. about 0.0415 per year on the log-odds scale. If you want to project this forwards then the future proportion = 1/(1 + e^(-log-odds))
So to get to 50% Muslim, the log-odds would be ln(0.5/0.5) = 0
Starting from 2021's log-odds of -2.75, increasing by 0.0415 per year: we get
Number of years = (0 - (-2.75))/0.0415 ≈ 66.3 years, i.e. in 2087
There has been a Muslim population in the Balkans and European parts of Russia for centuries. The bulk of the Muslim population of Europe is still those groups, with the largest new Muslim population in Europe being in France, a legacy of colonialism, particularly in Algeria.
While there is a deep concern about the views of young Muslim men, there is a barely suppressed glee about the rise of similar views among young "Christian" men. There are your tiers, and why it is difficult to take these kind of views seriously.
At just 15-20% of the electorate, if a Muslim minority votes en masse for a "Muslim party" that entirely changes British politics. Any new govenrment would have to take into account their views, and indeed enact some of their policies/attitudes
We can see what UKIP did to Britain with similar numbers, they basically got Brexit
So if I was gay, or indeed female, I would be scared of a Muslim population exceeding 15%, let alone 50%. That's democracy
At that point, all you have left is the pious hope that 2nd 3rd and 4th generation Muslims become less Muslim. But that does not seem to be happening, indeed the opposite. So this is not something to worry about in 40 years, it is something to worry about in 10-20 years, if not sooner
Lefty: “you bang on about how generalising that men are all violent rapists and misogynists leads to the far right. But look at the stats: how many violent murders or sexual attacks are committed by women?”
Righty: “you blather on about how we shouldn’t condemn an entire religion because of the actions of its extremists, but are we all barricading our sports events because of a fear of Jehovah’s witnesses?”
Without any independent corroborating data, as well as information as to how it is defined and formed, I will simply disregard the claim as either misleading, bullshit or irrelevant.
Second biggest? Israel fighting in Gaza and Lebanon. Does Israel count as the West?
Third biggest is the civil war in Myanmar, then next is conflict in the Maghreb (mostly Muslim v Muslim), then the Sudanese civil war, and so on.
If you want to draw out themes, there’s a Saudi/Sunni v Iran/Shi’a conflict with proxy wars in various places and which is driving some of the Israel/Gaza/Lebanon war. There is still a Russia and China versus the West theme that’s carried over from the Cold War.
Dunno enough about the details but I'd very, very happily pay an extra 2p on income tax for a decent defence policy.
My non-expert caveats:
- Dura-Ace (wherever he is) had a healthy skepticism about the MoDs ability to spaff money up the wall.
- We probably needed to do this a decade ago. Still, better late than never.
You are ignoring demographic change too
I'd be quite intrigued to know what percentage of eg school age children are Muslim as compared to what percentage of the overall population are. From Google it seems that 1/12 were nearly a decade ago, which completely dwarfs the 5.97% in 2021 that @bondegezou claimed. I can't find any more recent data than that, but I imagine its trended only one way.
And do you want to team up with Leon, someone who thinks your children can’t count as fully British if they’re not white?
I don’t see what demographic change has to do with it.
Israel absolutely 100% is western.
The LDs meanwhile would try and maintain some form of upper middle class home counties and southern centrism but would literally be the squeezed middle
As for who I side with, I literally just pointed out that I'm on the same side as Tommy Robinson, it's disappointing but I'll live. As for Leon's previous comments I think they were clumsy more than racist, I don't believe he is racist at all and you've jumped on this example of poorly worded thoughts as a way to try and cancel him. It's not going to work, cancel culture is coming to an end.
To extrapolate from current data that averages everyone, young and old, and extrapolating that trends will continue is a complete misuse of statistics.
It doesn't matter a jot the demographics of people 50+ let along 70+ as they're not the ones having kids (barring odd exceptions).
If there is a major difference between young and old, then the future trends to the young, not the old.
To develop the argument, because it isn't incendiary enough, I just read an argument by an evolutiuonary psychologist arguing that fundamentalist Islam is a logical Darwinian development if you are Muslim and you see collapsing birthrates in the non Muslim world. You lock up your women and force them to have babies
But then Taiwan's fucking cool.
(Hat-tip @Malmesbury )
https://www.theguardian.com/education/2024/nov/23/teachers-at-mossbourne-academy-in-hackney-screamed-at-and-humiliated-pupils-say-angry-parents
Parents have accused an academy school in east London of causing serious harm to children’s mental health, with teachers humiliating and “screaming” at pupils, and have urged the local authority to exercise extraordinary powers to intervene.
A group of nearly 30 parents and former teachers has spoken out about treatment of children at Mossbourne Victoria Park academy (MVPA) in Hackney.
The secondary school, rated outstanding by Ofsted and known for its high examination grades and tough discipline, is in the same federation as the acclaimed Mossbourne Community academy, also in Hackney and originally run by Sir Michael Wilshaw, the former chief inspector of schools for England who led Ofsted from 2012 to 2016.
A dossier of allegations about children’s experiences at the academy, shared with the Observer, includes first years being “screamed at” by senior leaders and five accounts of secondary-age pupils with no prior incontinence issues soiling themselves, or menstruating through their uniforms, because they were not allowed to go to the toilet or were too scared to ask...
How can the maths take into account predictions for a falling birth rate amongst UK Muslims? How can it take into account immigration policy? Were there factors within those twenty years which won't be repeated?
I'm sure it's possible to make some kind of prediction which may turn out to be vaguely accurate by taking into account a lot more data. However it still also include a hell of a lot of fortune telling, and certainly won't be summed up by a few lines of maths.