Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

A dangerously illiberal idea – politicalbetting.com

2456

Comments

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491

    https://x.com/haynesdeborah/status/1859240547371659384

    BREAKING: The UK will scrap five warships, dozens of military helicopters and a fleet of drones to save money despite growing threats from Russia and a war raging in Europe.
    John Healey, the defence secretary, announced the dramatic move in parliament on Wednesday, saying it would save up to half a billion pounds over the next five years. The defence secretary described the equipment being axed as “outdated” and said the “common sense” decision to retire them was long overdue.
    He signalled the decision was part of a plan to restructure and modernise the armed forces, which have already been significantly reduced in size following decades of cost-saving cuts, with new capabilities due to come on line to replace the gaps.

    We don't have five warships to scrap!
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,494

    So messaging aubergines and peaches emojis can lead to misunderstandings.

    ***Innocent Face***

    Another attack on our farmers - how are they supposed to tell the kids what’s in stock at the farm shop if using emojis can get them into trouble.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,454

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Fuck me, dark already at 4pm

    We've got this for 4 months.

    Are you going to post this at 4pm every day?
    Yes

    Because it amuses me, the inane and pointless repetition
    The irony is that Leon is probably in Singapore or Mauritaus or the Galapagos Islands, where it's not twighlight.

    And he's still on here to argue with tim.
    I can report that I am very definitely in Camden. I just saw actor Simon Russel Beale outside Gails on Parkway. Yesterday I saw Julian Clary walking his dog outside my local. It all happens here

    And it is also fucking freezing
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,213
    edited November 20

    I’ve just been out for a run. It’s the first day my hands have felt very, very cold.

    Interestingly we're still currently heading for the 4th warmest year on record since 1772 (If the final part of this year matches last).
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,053

    Phil said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Further evidence of the mediocrity of this government.

    'Schools should cut down on museums and theatre trips and remove references in lessons to middle class activities like skiing holidays a government curriculum review will be held.'

    https://x.com/SophiaSleigh/status/1859215458395656486

    The government's education/curriculum reivew is a Woke Disaster in the making. They've got the most insane Woke twats from academe advising them, proper Britain-haters and "post-colonialist gender studies" experts
    I actually despise them now, I even think Corbyn and McDonnell would have been better. Yes they might have hit big corporates a bit more and been a bit more anti Israel but they didn't hate our farmers, small businesses and pensioners as much as this one does and McDonnell at least had some vague intellectual traints unlike the philistine and woke Starmer and Reeves
    Yep. They are actually STUPID, and malevolently so

    And let's look at their record so far

    Inflation: rising
    Unemployment: rising
    Growth: nearly extinguished
    Taxes: rising
    Debt: rising
    Public services: cut
    Defence: cut
    Pensioners: told to freeze
    Farmers: told to fuck off
    Retailers: told to jump in a lake
    Chagos Islands: given away for nothing, indeed we have to PAY


    That's just the first five months. And that's ignoring all the petty grift and corruption
    The last Tory government may have been out of ideas and exhausted but they weren't malevolent like this lot. They are targeting the countryside because they voted for Brexit and they want to put these farmers into poverty and destroy the idea of the family farm as retribution. Labour have been waiting 8 years since 2016 to get their revenge on the countryside and it's barely even been disguised.
    The last Tory government were totally malevolent.

    They cut HS2 for no reason other than spite.
    And because it was a pointless waste of billions.
    Are we going to re-hash this /again/ ? The pointless waste of billions was burying half the line so rich landowners (oh, look it’s them again...) in the Cotswolds wouldn’t have their views ruined. Oh, plus the bat thing.

    The real waste was the waste of building this expensive half, then deciding to ditch the cheap half that actually made the whole thing worthwhile. Thanks to Sunak we’ve built a very expensive railway to no-where that achieves nothing.
    Nope. It ws a massive pointless white elephant from start to finish. It is just just a shame they didn't scrap the whole thing.
    It was a bargain at £20 billion, which is what it would cost if it cost the global average per mile for high speed lines.

    It was marginal at £40-50 billion.

    It is an unbelievable waste of money at £100 billion.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Further evidence of the mediocrity of this government.

    'Schools should cut down on museums and theatre trips and remove references in lessons to middle class activities like skiing holidays a government curriculum review will be held.'

    https://x.com/SophiaSleigh/status/1859215458395656486

    The government's education/curriculum reivew is a Woke Disaster in the making. They've got the most insane Woke twats from academe advising them, proper Britain-haters and "post-colonialist gender studies" experts
    I actually despise them now, I even think Corbyn and McDonnell would have been better. Yes they might have hit big corporates a bit more and been a bit more anti Israel but they didn't hate our farmers, small businesses and pensioners as much as this one does and McDonnell at least had some vague intellectual traints unlike the philistine and woke Starmer and Reeves
    Yep. They are actually STUPID, and malevolently so

    And let's look at their record so far

    Inflation: rising
    Unemployment: rising
    Growth: nearly extinguished
    Taxes: rising
    Debt: rising
    Public services: cut
    Defence: cut
    Pensioners: told to freeze
    Farmers: told to fuck off
    Retailers: told to jump in a lake
    Chagos Islands: given away for nothing, indeed we have to PAY


    That's just the first five months. And that's ignoring all the petty grift and corruption
    The last Tory government may have been out of ideas and exhausted but they weren't malevolent like this lot. They are targeting the countryside because they voted for Brexit and they want to put these farmers into poverty and destroy the idea of the family farm as retribution. Labour have been waiting 8 years since 2016 to get their revenge on the countryside and it's barely even been disguised.
    This is what happens when you put a lot of student marxists in charge who've spent their whole lives in think-tanks, charities and political bag-carrying and have never left North London.

    They're indulging all their pet ideological fantasises and prejudices with no thought of what the real impact will be or what's right for the country.

    Blair wouldn't have dreamed of behaving like this.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,213
    edited November 20

    Andy_JS said:

    Were billions wasted on HS2. Yes.

    Was HS2 a waste. No.

    Maybe if we'd got a foreign company and mostly foreign people to work on it, it would have been built by now at less cost.
    No, that's a lot of nonsense.
    It's the august combination of potential for judicial review, gold plating, NIMBYism and the value of a bat's life being placed at a billion quid that's cost the dosh.
  • Roger said:

    FTP. Great post Firestopper. PB's Finest! I just read it to a few friends who I was having lunch with and they loved it and that was without them reading the self serving drivel that you were replying to.

    Cheers Rog.
    Up the workers! Right up up 'em!
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,478

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Fuck me, dark already at 4pm

    Another month of this until the days start getting longer. Winter in this country is truly bleak.
    Not as bleak as in the Nordics which is, presumably, why so many top themselves.

    It doesn't bother me excessively, although it's not my preference: I view it as a quid pro quo for the very long summer evenings we get in May, June and July.
    Cold makes it quite difficult to manage the speed control of my electric scooter. My hands, already minimally responsive, just seize up. Better with gloves, but not a lot!
    However it's max. 8mph, so no danger of serious damage to anyone.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,855
    Another bad day on the Moscow stock exchange. The gains since Trump's re-election have been wiped out and now almost back to the low at the end of the summer. The official dollar exchange rate is now over 100 though what that means in practice who knows? They also seem to be having trouble selling their debt.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,386
    Phil said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Further evidence of the mediocrity of this government.

    'Schools should cut down on museums and theatre trips and remove references in lessons to middle class activities like skiing holidays a government curriculum review will be held.'

    https://x.com/SophiaSleigh/status/1859215458395656486

    The government's education/curriculum reivew is a Woke Disaster in the making. They've got the most insane Woke twats from academe advising them, proper Britain-haters and "post-colonialist gender studies" experts
    I actually despise them now, I even think Corbyn and McDonnell would have been better. Yes they might have hit big corporates a bit more and been a bit more anti Israel but they didn't hate our farmers, small businesses and pensioners as much as this one does and McDonnell at least had some vague intellectual traints unlike the philistine and woke Starmer and Reeves
    Yep. They are actually STUPID, and malevolently so

    And let's look at their record so far

    Inflation: rising
    Unemployment: rising
    Growth: nearly extinguished
    Taxes: rising
    Debt: rising
    Public services: cut
    Defence: cut
    Pensioners: told to freeze
    Farmers: told to fuck off
    Retailers: told to jump in a lake
    Chagos Islands: given away for nothing, indeed we have to PAY


    That's just the first five months. And that's ignoring all the petty grift and corruption
    The last Tory government may have been out of ideas and exhausted but they weren't malevolent like this lot. They are targeting the countryside because they voted for Brexit and they want to put these farmers into poverty and destroy the idea of the family farm as retribution. Labour have been waiting 8 years since 2016 to get their revenge on the countryside and it's barely even been disguised.
    The last Tory government were totally malevolent.

    They cut HS2 for no reason other than spite.
    And because it was a pointless waste of billions.
    Are we going to re-hash this /again/ ? The pointless waste of billions was burying half the line so rich landowners (oh, look it’s them again...) in the Cotswolds wouldn’t have their views ruined. Oh, plus the bat thing.

    The real waste was the waste of building this expensive half, then deciding to ditch the cheap half that actually made the whole thing worthwhile. Thanks to Sunak we’ve built a very expensive railway to no-where that achieves nothing.
    The Sunk Cost Fallacy is a terrible reason to do anything.

    Can I sell you a heavy lift rocket made out of Shuttle derived components?
  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,316

    Phil said:

    So, since everyone hates inheritance taxes, I propose we ditch IHT altogether and replace it & CGT with a wealth tax. In fact, lets go the whole hog & bundle Council Tax in there too!

    Guaranteed to be politically popular with no pushback whatsoever. /ahem/.

    (It probably is the right thing to do economically - if you’re going to have CGT & IHT then really what you’ve done is implement a very lumpy wealth tax.)

    Nope. Just beef up CGT. Tax at the point the profit is realised
    & if the profit is never realised?
  • Since I don’t think I’ll be using my photo quota for anything else, took this picture of the local phone mast in the sunrise from the golf course while walking the dog this morning

    I love taking Edith out in the dark on my days off and seeing the sun come up


  • .

    I’ve just been out for a run. It’s the first day my hands have felt very, very cold.

    Do you have any running gloves?
    I do but they’re not for me. I just deal with my hands being cold.
    I'm the same. I've learned to dress for the second mile, when you're warmed up. I just tough out the first couple of KMs in the bare minimum. I got sick of ending up stuffing gloves and beanie into my jacket pockets, then having to tie the damn jacket around my waist!
    Don’t you find that your hands don’t work at the end of it if you do that?
    I tend to wear base layers with thumb loops in the sleeves, and I'm a short arse all over, so I can draw my arms up into my mid layer sleeves if its a bit nesh.. My regular running partner dresses as if she's at Everest base camp, and still moans she's cold!
  • Pulpstar said:

    I’ve just been out for a run. It’s the first day my hands have felt very, very cold.

    Interestingly we're still currently heading for the 4th warmest year on record since 1772 (If the final part of this year matches last).
    The cold snap ends Friday so there won't be any need to run to keep warm.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,838
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Fuck me, dark already at 4pm

    We've got this for 4 months.

    Are you going to post this at 4pm every day?
    Yes

    Because it amuses me, the inane and pointless repetition
    The irony is that Leon is probably in Singapore or Mauritaus or the Galapagos Islands, where it's not twighlight.

    And he's still on here to argue with tim.
    I can report that I am very definitely in Camden. I just saw actor Simon Russel Beale outside Gails on Parkway. Yesterday I saw Julian Clary walking his dog outside my local. It all happens here

    And it is also fucking freezing
    An absolutely beautiful day segueing into a beautiful evening. Nowhere better than England in November when November is like this.
    It is, I grant you, a tad parky.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,003

    Since I don’t think I’ll be using my photo quota for anything else, took this picture of the local phone mast in the sunrise from the golf course while walking the dog this morning

    I love taking Edith out in the dark on my days off and seeing the sun come up


    Good name for a dog, I shan’t cavil over it.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,713

    .

    I’ve just been out for a run. It’s the first day my hands have felt very, very cold.

    Do you have any running gloves?
    I do but they’re not for me. I just deal with my hands being cold.
    I'm the same. I've learned to dress for the second mile, when you're warmed up. I just tough out the first couple of KMs in the bare minimum. I got sick of ending up stuffing gloves and beanie into my jacket pockets, then having to tie the damn jacket around my waist!
    Don’t you find that your hands don’t work at the end of it if you do that?
    I tend to wear base layers with thumb loops in the sleeves, and I'm a short arse all over, so I can draw my arms up into my mid layer sleeves if its a bit nesh.. My regular running partner dresses as if she's at Everest base camp, and still moans she's cold!
    Strava tells me my cycle commute this morning "felt like -7C". Certainly awake by the time I got to the office!
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,488

    Had anyone heard of the £5bn over two years for farmers; the largest ever government investment in sustainable food, before today?

    Or have any idea what it means?

    I hope it doesn't mean that Dale Vince gets to cover 10% of farmland with solar panels, to make our food "sustainable"

    Good grief, what in the fresh hell is this?
  • Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Fuck me, dark already at 4pm

    We've got this for 4 months.

    Are you going to post this at 4pm every day?
    Yes

    Because it amuses me, the inane and pointless repetition
    The irony is that Leon is probably in Singapore or Mauritaus or the Galapagos Islands, where it's not twighlight.

    And he's still on here to argue with tim.
    I can report that I am very definitely in Camden. I just saw actor Simon Russel Beale outside Gails on Parkway. Yesterday I saw Julian Clary walking his dog outside my local. It all happens here

    And it is also fucking freezing
    I saw Simon Russell Beale yesterday, but I didn't see Julian Clary today

    But I'm not in Camden
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,095
    boulay said:

    Roger said:

    FTP. Great post Firestopper. PB's Finest! I just read it to a few friends who I was having lunch with and they loved it and that was without them reading the self serving drivel that you were replying to.

    That’s a beautiful sentiment Roger. It’s good that in this day and age fellow men can put down their Sauternes for a moment to agree with a rant against the rich.

    Do tell us which champagne you ordered to toast the fine sans-culottes bravely voicing your feelings in a way you couldn’t as it is difficult to type whilst lunching with friends.
    He had his phone out at the lunch table. As the young people say: I can’t even..
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,729
    MaxPB said:

    Pulpstar said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Fuck me, dark already at 4pm

    Another month of this until the days start getting longer. Winter in this country is truly bleak.
    Evenings start getting lighter after the 13th.
    Winter solstice is December 21st.
    Nothing noticeable happens until the End of January
  • MattW said:

    This is my photo quota for today - quite interesting.

    It's a junction in Nottingham City Centre being changed from a traffic island with traffic lights to a signalised T-junction.



    You can see how the T-Junction running lanes have been added first, so that traffic flow is maintained. The increased landscaping, footways and mobility tracks will be built round it.

    The junction is at one end of Maid Marian Way, which is a 4-6 lane dual carriageway built through Nottinghams ancient street pattern in the 1960s, splitting the city centre roughly 3/4:1/4 .

    The traffic down Maid Marian way is 16k vehicles per day, down from 27k per day in approx 2003. One reason for that is that Nottingham built a tramway system in the early 2000s, which now carries around 50k passengers per day.

    Source:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn4z811v18jo
    Scheme:
    https://www.transportnottingham.com/project/maid-marian-way-roundabout-improvements/

    Have they resolved the issues yet? Nottingham city transport were having to add up to an hour to their schedule last month for some routes because the light phasing simply wasn't fit for purpose. I do like some of the changes. Coming out of the Castle Quarter onto Maid Marion Way is now much better
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491
    Pre-woke era.

    I've been watching Gary W. Gallagher, a prominent historian, and his Great Courses lecture series on the American Civil War recently. It's comprehensive 48-lecture course that covers the political, social, and military aspects of the war all recorded in the year 2000.

    One thing he keeps saying in his lectures is how important it is not to apply the values and judgements of today to the people of the time, if we really want to understand what they did and why they did it, but to read what they actually said and actually did in the context of their own time. He does this repeatedly with analysis of the war, the roles played on the war front, home front, and civilian front and displays no judgement or bias in any analysis he delivers on any of it.

    Struck me as what an utterly radical point of view that would be today, simple academic objectiveness, and how we truly have gone backwards.
  • Phil said:

    Phil said:

    So, since everyone hates inheritance taxes, I propose we ditch IHT altogether and replace it & CGT with a wealth tax. In fact, lets go the whole hog & bundle Council Tax in there too!

    Guaranteed to be politically popular with no pushback whatsoever. /ahem/.

    (It probably is the right thing to do economically - if you’re going to have CGT & IHT then really what you’ve done is implement a very lumpy wealth tax.)

    Nope. Just beef up CGT. Tax at the point the profit is realised
    & if the profit is never realised?
    Then the tax should not be due.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 520
    Eabhal said:

    .

    I’ve just been out for a run. It’s the first day my hands have felt very, very cold.

    Do you have any running gloves?
    I do but they’re not for me. I just deal with my hands being cold.
    I'm the same. I've learned to dress for the second mile, when you're warmed up. I just tough out the first couple of KMs in the bare minimum. I got sick of ending up stuffing gloves and beanie into my jacket pockets, then having to tie the damn jacket around my waist!
    Don’t you find that your hands don’t work at the end of it if you do that?
    I tend to wear base layers with thumb loops in the sleeves, and I'm a short arse all over, so I can draw my arms up into my mid layer sleeves if its a bit nesh.. My regular running partner dresses as if she's at Everest base camp, and still moans she's cold!
    Strava tells me my cycle commute this morning "felt like -7C". Certainly awake by the time I got to the office!
    Ron hills and an old school HH lifa base layer (long sleeves if you feel the cold) or at least that's all the two blokes who ran past me on a snowy offroad cycle in the brecons were wearing.
  • Nunu3Nunu3 Posts: 225
    Pulpstar said:

    Good poll for Buttigieg:

    #New 2028 Dem primary poll

    Kamala Harris - 43%
    Pete Buttigieg - 9%
    Gavin Newsom - 8%
    Tim walz - 7%
    Josh Shapiro - 5%
    Ocasio-Cortez - 4%

    if they pick him they lose. Bigger than this year.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,254
    edited November 20

    MattW said:

    This is my photo quota for today - quite interesting.

    It's a junction in Nottingham City Centre being changed from a traffic island with traffic lights to a signalised T-junction.



    You can see how the T-Junction running lanes have been added first, so that traffic flow is maintained. The increased landscaping, footways and mobility tracks will be built round it.

    The junction is at one end of Maid Marian Way, which is a 4-6 lane dual carriageway built through Nottinghams ancient street pattern in the 1960s, splitting the city centre roughly 3/4:1/4 .

    The traffic down Maid Marian way is 16k vehicles per day, down from 27k per day in approx 2003. One reason for that is that Nottingham built a tramway system in the early 2000s, which now carries around 50k passengers per day.

    Source:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn4z811v18jo
    Scheme:
    https://www.transportnottingham.com/project/maid-marian-way-roundabout-improvements/

    Have they resolved the issues yet? Nottingham city transport were having to add up to an hour to their schedule last month for some routes because the light phasing simply wasn't fit for purpose. I do like some of the changes. Coming out of the Castle Quarter onto Maid Marion Way is now much better
    I don't know.

    If I'm in Nottingham it's usually tram and walk, car and walk, or train and Brompton :smile:

    I know the area really well though, going back a .. very .. long time. I used to go down there to catch the bus from MOunt Street to go and do cross-country running torture in Wollaton Park when from age 11. Then I lived on Lenton Road in the Park for 6 months later.
  • Nunu3Nunu3 Posts: 225

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Further evidence of the mediocrity of this government.

    'Schools should cut down on museums and theatre trips and remove references in lessons to middle class activities like skiing holidays a government curriculum review will be held.'

    https://x.com/SophiaSleigh/status/1859215458395656486

    The government's education/curriculum reivew is a Woke Disaster in the making. They've got the most insane Woke twats from academe advising them, proper Britain-haters and "post-colonialist gender studies" experts
    I actually despise them now, I even think Corbyn and McDonnell would have been better. Yes they might have hit big corporates a bit more and been a bit more anti Israel but they didn't hate our farmers, small businesses and pensioners as much as this one does and McDonnell at least had some vague intellectual traints unlike the philistine and woke Starmer and Reeves
    Yep. They are actually STUPID, and malevolently so

    And let's look at their record so far

    Inflation: rising
    Unemployment: rising
    Growth: nearly extinguished
    Taxes: rising
    Debt: rising
    Public services: cut
    Defence: cut
    Pensioners: told to freeze
    Farmers: told to fuck off
    Retailers: told to jump in a lake
    Chagos Islands: given away for nothing, indeed we have to PAY


    That's just the first five months. And that's ignoring all the petty grift and corruption
    The last Tory government may have been out of ideas and exhausted but they weren't malevolent like this lot. They are targeting the countryside because they voted for Brexit and they want to put these farmers into poverty and destroy the idea of the family farm as retribution. Labour have been waiting 8 years since 2016 to get their revenge on the countryside and it's barely even been disguised.
    The last Tory government were totally malevolent.

    They cut HS2 for no reason other than spite.
    And because it was a pointless waste of billions.
    And Labour endorsed it this week by confirming HS2 will be completed Euston to Birmingham only
    all must go to the ever insatiable NHS
  • Nunu3Nunu3 Posts: 225
    Pulpstar said:

    I'll be honest, I don't think the Democrats will have as strong a candidate as the 2020 version of Biden for quite a while.

    I'd probably rank the recent Dem candidates as follows:

    08 Obama
    12 Obama
    20 Biden
    16 Clinton
    24 Harris
    24 Biden

    I would put Harris 24 above Hillary, despite the worse result. The bad result for Harris wasn't her fault. It was inflation and Joe not stepping down sooner.
  • Nunu3Nunu3 Posts: 225
    The next Dem primary will be the first since Obama 2008, where a candidate could truly come from nowhere to clinch it.

    The rest since then have been coronations by the party if we are being honest.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,234
    edited November 20

    Phil said:

    So, since everyone hates inheritance taxes, I propose we ditch IHT altogether and replace it & CGT with a wealth tax. In fact, lets go the whole hog & bundle Council Tax in there too!

    Guaranteed to be politically popular with no pushback whatsoever. /ahem/.

    (It probably is the right thing to do economically - if you’re going to have CGT & IHT then really what you’ve done is implement a very lumpy wealth tax.)

    We could go full Trump and revert to primarily funding the government through tariffs on imports.
    It is worth noting that last time the US Federal government raised most of its money through tariffs, Federal spending was just 2.5% of GDP. (And even then, tariffs were only about half of government receipts.)
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,717
    rcs1000 said:

    Nunu3 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I'll be honest, I don't think the Democrats will have as strong a candidate as the 2020 version of Biden for quite a while.

    I'd probably rank the recent Dem candidates as follows:

    08 Obama
    12 Obama
    20 Biden
    16 Clinton
    24 Harris
    24 Biden

    I would put Harris 24 above Hillary, despite the worse result. The bad result for Harris wasn't her fault. It was inflation and Joe not stepping down sooner.
    I think this is absolutely right: Harris was not a great candidate, but she was not as bad as Hillary.
    Do you think Clinton would have lost to John McCain in 2008?
  • MattW said:

    MattW said:

    This is my photo quota for today - quite interesting.

    It's a junction in Nottingham City Centre being changed from a traffic island with traffic lights to a signalised T-junction.



    You can see how the T-Junction running lanes have been added first, so that traffic flow is maintained. The increased landscaping, footways and mobility tracks will be built round it.

    The junction is at one end of Maid Marian Way, which is a 4-6 lane dual carriageway built through Nottinghams ancient street pattern in the 1960s, splitting the city centre roughly 3/4:1/4 .

    The traffic down Maid Marian way is 16k vehicles per day, down from 27k per day in approx 2003. One reason for that is that Nottingham built a tramway system in the early 2000s, which now carries around 50k passengers per day.

    Source:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn4z811v18jo
    Scheme:
    https://www.transportnottingham.com/project/maid-marian-way-roundabout-improvements/

    Have they resolved the issues yet? Nottingham city transport were having to add up to an hour to their schedule last month for some routes because the light phasing simply wasn't fit for purpose. I do like some of the changes. Coming out of the Castle Quarter onto Maid Marion Way is now much better
    I don't know.

    If I'm in Nottingham it's usually tram and walk, car and walk, or train and Brompton :smile:

    I know the area really well though, going back a .. very .. long time. I used to go down there to catch the bus from MOunt Street to go and do cross-country running torture in Wollaton Park when from age 11. Then I lived on Lenton Road in the Park for 6 months later.
    Looking at it I think it will turn out to be a considerable improvement, particularly for non car users but also for drivers as well. It is just a shame that Maid Marion Way itself is so bloody horrible.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,234
    edited November 20

    rcs1000 said:

    Nunu3 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I'll be honest, I don't think the Democrats will have as strong a candidate as the 2020 version of Biden for quite a while.

    I'd probably rank the recent Dem candidates as follows:

    08 Obama
    12 Obama
    20 Biden
    16 Clinton
    24 Harris
    24 Biden

    I would put Harris 24 above Hillary, despite the worse result. The bad result for Harris wasn't her fault. It was inflation and Joe not stepping down sooner.
    I think this is absolutely right: Harris was not a great candidate, but she was not as bad as Hillary.
    Do you think Clinton would have lost to John McCain in 2008?
    Yes. And I think she would have lost to Romney in 2012. And I'm certain she would have been defeated by Trump in 2016.

    (Actually, maybe not. The reality is that the incumbent administration was very unpopular in 2008. Maybe even Hillary could have won then.)
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,234
    Nunu3 said:

    The next Dem primary will be the first since Obama 2008, where a candidate could truly come from nowhere to clinch it.

    The rest since then have been coronations by the party if we are being honest.

    This is true, albeit it's also a small sample size.

    2012: incumbent popular President, so no great surprise that he won.

    2016: stitch up by Clinton.

    2020: competitive process, but a total fuckup because Iowa didn't report a winner, leaving Sanders in place to win New Hampshire. Which meant the Dems were desperately searching for a moderate, and picked the really old guy.

    2024: no contest, because Joe dropped out late in the process.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,254
    edited November 20

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Fuck me, dark already at 4pm

    Another month of this until the days start getting longer. Winter in this country is truly bleak.
    Not as bleak as in the Nordics which is, presumably, why so many top themselves.

    It doesn't bother me excessively, although it's not my preference: I view it as a quid pro quo for the very long summer evenings we get in May, June and July.
    Cold makes it quite difficult to manage the speed control of my electric scooter. My hands, already minimally responsive, just seize up. Better with gloves, but not a lot!
    However it's max. 8mph, so no danger of serious damage to anyone.
    I don't want to suggest that the Right Honourable Gentleman will be doing donuts at 8mph in the Tesco Metro car park in the snowdrifts. However, an 8mph scooter and its rider can easily weigh a 1/5 to 1/4 of a tonne so can do considerable damage even at slow speed.

    It's also worth remembering that tyre performance gets much worse below about 7C, unless they are all-season tyres.

    As usual, there aren't firm figures, and the motor vehicles are probably a greater risk to a scooterer than he is to pedestrians.

    However, there are KSIs every year. Here's a Telegraph piece from the good old days of 2022 which mentions both vehicle-scooterist and scooterist-pedestrian collision.
    https://archive.ph/WL4rd

    (I've no idea of a cycling collisions comparison as cycle / moped categories get blurred, but I won't tell IDS if he doesn't.)
  • Meanwhile in "when everybody's somebody, nobody's anybody" news,

    Kemi Badenoch has put the finishing touches to her front bench team, and such are the depleted Conservative ranks that as a Tory MP, you had a better than one-in-two chance of getting a job.

    Including Badenoch herself, 64 Tories are shadow ministers or whips, which is just under 53% of the total of 121 Conservatives in the Commons. The full front bench list is longer, but some people are named as both whips and junior ministers in departments.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2024/nov/20/farming-inheritance-tax-keir-starmer-angela-rayner-uk-politics-live
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,717
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nunu3 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I'll be honest, I don't think the Democrats will have as strong a candidate as the 2020 version of Biden for quite a while.

    I'd probably rank the recent Dem candidates as follows:

    08 Obama
    12 Obama
    20 Biden
    16 Clinton
    24 Harris
    24 Biden

    I would put Harris 24 above Hillary, despite the worse result. The bad result for Harris wasn't her fault. It was inflation and Joe not stepping down sooner.
    I think this is absolutely right: Harris was not a great candidate, but she was not as bad as Hillary.
    Do you think Clinton would have lost to John McCain in 2008?
    Yes. And I think she would have lost to Romney in 2012. And I'm certain she would have been defeated by Trump in 2016.

    (Actually, maybe not. The reality is that the incumbent administration was very unpopular in 2008. Maybe even Hillary could have won then.)
    Counterfactual time: either Clinton or McCain would have been much tougher on Russia than Obama was.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Nunu3 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I'll be honest, I don't think the Democrats will have as strong a candidate as the 2020 version of Biden for quite a while.

    I'd probably rank the recent Dem candidates as follows:

    08 Obama
    12 Obama
    20 Biden
    16 Clinton
    24 Harris
    24 Biden

    I would put Harris 24 above Hillary, despite the worse result. The bad result for Harris wasn't her fault. It was inflation and Joe not stepping down sooner.
    I think this is absolutely right: Harris was not a great candidate, but she was not as bad as Hillary.
    Hillary 232
    Kamala 226

    :innocent:
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,436
    edited November 20

    Pre-woke era.

    I've been watching Gary W. Gallagher, a prominent historian, and his Great Courses lecture series on the American Civil War recently. It's comprehensive 48-lecture course that covers the political, social, and military aspects of the war all recorded in the year 2000.

    One thing he keeps saying in his lectures is how important it is not to apply the values and judgements of today to the people of the time, if we really want to understand what they did and why they did it, but to read what they actually said and actually did in the context of their own time. He does this repeatedly with analysis of the war, the roles played on the war front, home front, and civilian front and displays no judgement or bias in any analysis he delivers on any of it.

    Struck me as what an utterly radical point of view that would be today, simple academic objectiveness, and how we truly have gone backwards.

    Sorry, but that really is complete tosh. I've spent a lot of time listening to The Rest Is History podcasts by Tom Holland and Dominic Sandbrook recently (while exercising), and they repeatedly make exactly the same point.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,751
    Not much being said today about the fate of Yi Peng 3 and its crew. All the excitement overnight about the Danes arresting the ship and fairly silent all day.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,391

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nunu3 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I'll be honest, I don't think the Democrats will have as strong a candidate as the 2020 version of Biden for quite a while.

    I'd probably rank the recent Dem candidates as follows:

    08 Obama
    12 Obama
    20 Biden
    16 Clinton
    24 Harris
    24 Biden

    I would put Harris 24 above Hillary, despite the worse result. The bad result for Harris wasn't her fault. It was inflation and Joe not stepping down sooner.
    I think this is absolutely right: Harris was not a great candidate, but she was not as bad as Hillary.
    Do you think Clinton would have lost to John McCain in 2008?
    Yes. And I think she would have lost to Romney in 2012. And I'm certain she would have been defeated by Trump in 2016.

    (Actually, maybe not. The reality is that the incumbent administration was very unpopular in 2008. Maybe even Hillary could have won then.)
    Counterfactual time: either Clinton or McCain would have been much tougher on Russia than Obama was.
    McCain would certainly have been tough when the chips were down.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131

    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I'll be honest, I don't think the Democrats will have as strong a candidate as the 2020 version of Biden for quite a while.

    Really? Biden was a terrible candidate who never made it far in the regular Democratic primaries prior to 2020, and he only won then because Iowa fucked up.

    The Democrats - as Nate Silver noted in his post election write-up - have a pretty strong slate of new, youngish popular moderates, with people like Jon Ossoff and Andy Bashear.

    You just don't tend to see them, because Clinton's generation has been at the fore for so long.
    He got 81 million votes !
    There were 81 million votes against Donald Trump.
    Trump is almost unique in increasing his popular vote total in three consecutive elections.
    Apparently true according to wiki.

    2016: 62,984,828 (46.1%)
    2020: 74,223,975 (46.8%)
    2024: 76,674,170 (50.0%)
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,234
    Nunu3 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Good poll for Buttigieg:

    #New 2028 Dem primary poll

    Kamala Harris - 43%
    Pete Buttigieg - 9%
    Gavin Newsom - 8%
    Tim walz - 7%
    Josh Shapiro - 5%
    Ocasio-Cortez - 4%

    if they pick him they lose. Bigger than this year.
    Doesn't it rather depend on how people feel in 2028?

    If the Trump administration makes everyone richer, then no matter who the Democrats pick, then there's going to be another Republican in the White House.

    While if tariffs result in significant inflation without appreciable job gains, then the Democrats could probably renominate Hillary and win.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,717

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nunu3 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I'll be honest, I don't think the Democrats will have as strong a candidate as the 2020 version of Biden for quite a while.

    I'd probably rank the recent Dem candidates as follows:

    08 Obama
    12 Obama
    20 Biden
    16 Clinton
    24 Harris
    24 Biden

    I would put Harris 24 above Hillary, despite the worse result. The bad result for Harris wasn't her fault. It was inflation and Joe not stepping down sooner.
    I think this is absolutely right: Harris was not a great candidate, but she was not as bad as Hillary.
    Do you think Clinton would have lost to John McCain in 2008?
    Yes. And I think she would have lost to Romney in 2012. And I'm certain she would have been defeated by Trump in 2016.

    (Actually, maybe not. The reality is that the incumbent administration was very unpopular in 2008. Maybe even Hillary could have won then.)
    Counterfactual time: either Clinton or McCain would have been much tougher on Russia than Obama was.
    McCain would certainly have been tough when the chips were down.
    He had an oven-ready policy.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,234

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nunu3 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I'll be honest, I don't think the Democrats will have as strong a candidate as the 2020 version of Biden for quite a while.

    I'd probably rank the recent Dem candidates as follows:

    08 Obama
    12 Obama
    20 Biden
    16 Clinton
    24 Harris
    24 Biden

    I would put Harris 24 above Hillary, despite the worse result. The bad result for Harris wasn't her fault. It was inflation and Joe not stepping down sooner.
    I think this is absolutely right: Harris was not a great candidate, but she was not as bad as Hillary.
    Do you think Clinton would have lost to John McCain in 2008?
    Yes. And I think she would have lost to Romney in 2012. And I'm certain she would have been defeated by Trump in 2016.

    (Actually, maybe not. The reality is that the incumbent administration was very unpopular in 2008. Maybe even Hillary could have won then.)
    Counterfactual time: either Clinton or McCain would have been much tougher on Russia than Obama was.
    That's probably true. Albeit who the hell knows?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,234
    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    This is my photo quota for today - quite interesting.

    It's a junction in Nottingham City Centre being changed from a traffic island with traffic lights to a signalised T-junction.



    You can see how the T-Junction running lanes have been added first, so that traffic flow is maintained. The increased landscaping, footways and mobility tracks will be built round it.

    The junction is at one end of Maid Marian Way, which is a 4-6 lane dual carriageway built through Nottinghams ancient street pattern in the 1960s, splitting the city centre roughly 3/4:1/4 .

    The traffic down Maid Marian way is 16k vehicles per day, down from 27k per day in approx 2003. One reason for that is that Nottingham built a tramway system in the early 2000s, which now carries around 50k passengers per day.

    Source:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn4z811v18jo
    Scheme:
    https://www.transportnottingham.com/project/maid-marian-way-roundabout-improvements/

    Have they resolved the issues yet? Nottingham city transport were having to add up to an hour to their schedule last month for some routes because the light phasing simply wasn't fit for purpose. I do like some of the changes. Coming out of the Castle Quarter onto Maid Marion Way is now much better
    I don't know.

    If I'm in Nottingham it's usually tram and walk, car and walk, or train and Brompton :smile:

    I know the area really well though, going back a .. very .. long time. I used to go down there to catch the bus from MOunt Street to go and do cross-country running torture in Wollaton Park when from age 11. Then I lived on Lenton Road in the Park for 6 months later.
    We should rename the site politicalbettorswithbromptons.com.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,454
    edited November 20
    rcs1000 said:

    Nunu3 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Good poll for Buttigieg:

    #New 2028 Dem primary poll

    Kamala Harris - 43%
    Pete Buttigieg - 9%
    Gavin Newsom - 8%
    Tim walz - 7%
    Josh Shapiro - 5%
    Ocasio-Cortez - 4%

    if they pick him they lose. Bigger than this year.
    Doesn't it rather depend on how people feel in 2028?

    If the Trump administration makes everyone richer, then no matter who the Democrats pick, then there's going to be another Republican in the White House.

    While if tariffs result in significant inflation without appreciable job gains, then the Democrats could probably renominate Hillary and win.
    They've made Elon richer already

    CNN reported yesterday that since September Musk's estimated net worth has gone from $250bn to about $320bn. He is richer by $70bn, which is considerably more than the $44bn he paid for Twitter, and his ownership of Twitter is the main reason he is is now $70bn richer (coz it got Trump elected)

    That makes his purchase of Twitter perhaps the cleverest purchase of all time; certainly one of the most profitable
  • I wouldn't have a clue who Simon Russell Beale is..yet the Independent state he's "the greatest living stage actor of his generation" 🤔🥴
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,751

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nunu3 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I'll be honest, I don't think the Democrats will have as strong a candidate as the 2020 version of Biden for quite a while.

    I'd probably rank the recent Dem candidates as follows:

    08 Obama
    12 Obama
    20 Biden
    16 Clinton
    24 Harris
    24 Biden

    I would put Harris 24 above Hillary, despite the worse result. The bad result for Harris wasn't her fault. It was inflation and Joe not stepping down sooner.
    I think this is absolutely right: Harris was not a great candidate, but she was not as bad as Hillary.
    Do you think Clinton would have lost to John McCain in 2008?
    Yes. And I think she would have lost to Romney in 2012. And I'm certain she would have been defeated by Trump in 2016.

    (Actually, maybe not. The reality is that the incumbent administration was very unpopular in 2008. Maybe even Hillary could have won then.)
    Counterfactual time: either Clinton or McCain would have been much tougher on Russia than Obama was.
    McCain would certainly have been tough when the chips were down.
    Not obvious that any US President would have behaved much differently wrt Russia while comrade merkel was busily undermining european strategic resilience
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,717
    moonshine said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nunu3 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I'll be honest, I don't think the Democrats will have as strong a candidate as the 2020 version of Biden for quite a while.

    I'd probably rank the recent Dem candidates as follows:

    08 Obama
    12 Obama
    20 Biden
    16 Clinton
    24 Harris
    24 Biden

    I would put Harris 24 above Hillary, despite the worse result. The bad result for Harris wasn't her fault. It was inflation and Joe not stepping down sooner.
    I think this is absolutely right: Harris was not a great candidate, but she was not as bad as Hillary.
    Do you think Clinton would have lost to John McCain in 2008?
    Yes. And I think she would have lost to Romney in 2012. And I'm certain she would have been defeated by Trump in 2016.

    (Actually, maybe not. The reality is that the incumbent administration was very unpopular in 2008. Maybe even Hillary could have won then.)
    Counterfactual time: either Clinton or McCain would have been much tougher on Russia than Obama was.
    McCain would certainly have been tough when the chips were down.
    Not obvious that any US President would have behaved much differently wrt Russia while comrade merkel was busily undermining european strategic resilience
    Obama was particularly in awe of Merkel.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,444

    I would be a strong advocate for the clocks going two hours forward in the summer.

    I almost flagged that. Just no.

    Get up earlier by setting your alarm earlier instead of having the government change everyone's clocks you lazy sod.

    Noon is, on average, when the sun is at its highest. Why mess with that? Why move high noon to 2pm?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695

    I wouldn't have a clue who Simon Russell Beale is..yet the Independent state he's "the greatest living stage actor of his generation" 🤔🥴

    Which other stage actors do you know?
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,019

    I wouldn't have a clue who Simon Russell Beale is..yet the Independent state he's "the greatest living stage actor of his generation" 🤔🥴

    He made a good Beria in 'The Death of Stalin'.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Fuck me, dark already at 4pm

    Another month of this until the days start getting longer. Winter in this country is truly bleak.
    It's winter. You've only just realised it's cold and dark in the winter?
    come december we will be down to about 7 hours a day
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131

    I wouldn't have a clue who Simon Russell Beale is..yet the Independent state he's "the greatest living stage actor of his generation" 🤔🥴

    He's frequently cited as such. I don't go to the theatre - these days even getting to the cinema is a bit of a schlep - and so cannot tell. But he's a good film character actor, for example his "Beria" in "The Death Of Stalin"
  • I wouldn't have a clue who Simon Russell Beale is..yet the Independent state he's "the greatest living stage actor of his generation" 🤔🥴

    I like him - he was superb as Falstaff in the Hollow Crown series - but I think that honour defiently goes to Mark Rylance. I have seen him several times in Shakespeare productions and he is remarkable. I think he is probably the best actor in all fields of his generation.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,889

    I would be a strong advocate for the clocks going two hours forward in the summer.

    I almost flagged that. Just no.

    Get up earlier by setting your alarm earlier instead of having the government change everyone's clocks you lazy sod.

    Noon is, on average, when the sun is at its highest. Why mess with that? Why move high noon to 2pm?
    They did it in the UK in WW2. To save on energy. 1941-45 and 1947, on checking.

    TBF to Horse, not many of us have a sundial on the patio, let alone carry oen around.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,525

    I would be a strong advocate for the clocks going two hours forward in the summer.

    I almost flagged that. Just no.

    Get up earlier by setting your alarm earlier instead of having the government change everyone's clocks you lazy sod.

    Noon is, on average, when the sun is at its highest. Why mess with that? Why move high noon to 2pm?
    Oh don’t forsake me oh my lunchtime?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,889

    Pre-woke era.

    I've been watching Gary W. Gallagher, a prominent historian, and his Great Courses lecture series on the American Civil War recently. It's comprehensive 48-lecture course that covers the political, social, and military aspects of the war all recorded in the year 2000.

    One thing he keeps saying in his lectures is how important it is not to apply the values and judgements of today to the people of the time, if we really want to understand what they did and why they did it, but to read what they actually said and actually did in the context of their own time. He does this repeatedly with analysis of the war, the roles played on the war front, home front, and civilian front and displays no judgement or bias in any analysis he delivers on any of it.

    Struck me as what an utterly radical point of view that would be today, simple academic objectiveness, and how we truly have gone backwards.

    Sorry, but that really is complete tosh. I've spent a lot of time listening to The Rest Is History podcasts by Tom Holland and Dominic Sandbrook recently (while exercising), and they repeatedly make exactly the same point.
    I was taught that before CR was even born, I suspect.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362

    Pre-woke era.

    I've been watching Gary W. Gallagher, a prominent historian, and his Great Courses lecture series on the American Civil War recently. It's comprehensive 48-lecture course that covers the political, social, and military aspects of the war all recorded in the year 2000.

    One thing he keeps saying in his lectures is how important it is not to apply the values and judgements of today to the people of the time, if we really want to understand what they did and why they did it, but to read what they actually said and actually did in the context of their own time. He does this repeatedly with analysis of the war, the roles played on the war front, home front, and civilian front and displays no judgement or bias in any analysis he delivers on any of it.

    Struck me as what an utterly radical point of view that would be today, simple academic objectiveness, and how we truly have gone backwards.

    Where do you find that Casino
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,391

    I wouldn't have a clue who Simon Russell Beale is..yet the Independent state he's "the greatest living stage actor of his generation" 🤔🥴

    I like him - he was superb as Falstaff in the Hollow Crown series - but I think that honour defiently goes to Mark Rylance. I have seen him several times in Shakespeare productions and he is remarkable. I think he is probably the best actor in all fields of his generation.
    Agree. Just been watching Rylance in Wolf Hall and he is absolutely mesmerising in an apparently effortless way. I can't quite put my finger on why he's so good, but even when he's silent you can't take your eyes off him.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,213

    I would be a strong advocate for the clocks going two hours forward in the summer.

    I almost flagged that. Just no.

    Get up earlier by setting your alarm earlier instead of having the government change everyone's clocks you lazy sod.

    Noon is, on average, when the sun is at its highest. Why mess with that? Why move high noon to 2pm?
    Schools, nurseries and most workplaces tend to finish at a certain time because that's when everyone else does. Unless you're retired you generally can't choose your own clock.
    Double summer would lead to longer evenings for most
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,525

    I wouldn't have a clue who Simon Russell Beale is..yet the Independent state he's "the greatest living stage actor of his generation" 🤔🥴

    I like him - he was superb as Falstaff in the Hollow Crown series - but I think that honour defiently goes to Mark Rylance. I have seen him several times in Shakespeare productions and he is remarkable. I think he is probably the best actor in all fields of his generation.
    Mark Rylance has even been up for porn in his career.

    Always reliable and hard working. 👍🏻
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,234
    edited November 20

    I wouldn't have a clue who Simon Russell Beale is..yet the Independent state he's "the greatest living stage actor of his generation" 🤔🥴

    I like him - he was superb as Falstaff in the Hollow Crown series - but I think that honour defiently goes to Mark Rylance. I have seen him several times in Shakespeare productions and he is remarkable. I think he is probably the best actor in all fields of his generation.
    Simon Russell Beale is certainly up there, if maybe not quite in the same league as Rylance. But if you're not into theatre, you might well not have seen him.

    (He was also utterly brilliant as Beria in The Death of Stalin. A rare film gem from him.)
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,386
    Space stuff

    A quote I came across. In the context of technology development and “standing on the shoulders of giants”


    Sure, but it then makes one wonder why, exactly, everyone else standing on those same shoulders seems to insist on mining the armpits for gold instead of reaching for new heights. So to say.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,488
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Further evidence of the mediocrity of this government.

    'Schools should cut down on museums and theatre trips and remove references in lessons to middle class activities like skiing holidays a government curriculum review will be held.'

    https://x.com/SophiaSleigh/status/1859215458395656486

    The government's education/curriculum reivew is a Woke Disaster in the making. They've got the most insane Woke twats from academe advising them, proper Britain-haters and "post-colonialist gender studies" experts
    I actually despise them now, I even think Corbyn and McDonnell would have been better. Yes they might have hit big corporates a bit more and been a bit more anti Israel but they didn't hate our farmers, small businesses and pensioners as much as this one does and McDonnell at least had some vague intellectual traints unlike the philistine and woke Starmer and Reeves
    Yep. They are actually STUPID, and malevolently so

    And let's look at their record so far

    Inflation: rising
    Unemployment: rising
    Growth: nearly extinguished
    Taxes: rising
    Debt: rising
    Public services: cut
    Defence: cut
    Pensioners: told to freeze
    Farmers: told to fuck off
    Retailers: told to jump in a lake
    Chagos Islands: given away for nothing, indeed we have to PAY


    That's just the first five months. And that's ignoring all the petty grift and corruption
    The last Tory government may have been out of ideas and exhausted but they weren't malevolent like this lot. They are targeting the countryside because they voted for Brexit and they want to put these farmers into poverty and destroy the idea of the family farm as retribution. Labour have been waiting 8 years since 2016 to get their revenge on the countryside and it's barely even been disguised.
    That might be why they're enjoying it, but I don't think it's why they're doing it. Sorry to offend sensibilities but this reducing the food supply/getting farmers off the land is a very long term agenda, and the cause of the massive farmer protests in the Netherlands and other places. It is very much the policy that Klaus Schwab and the World Economic Forum have been pushing, and it's not unique to Labour, there have been awful policies like paying farmers to quit the industry that the Tories have introduced. Labour are just the worst extreme of it and they don't have the handbrake of rural Tory MPs.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,444
    Carnyx said:

    I would be a strong advocate for the clocks going two hours forward in the summer.

    I almost flagged that. Just no.

    Get up earlier by setting your alarm earlier instead of having the government change everyone's clocks you lazy sod.

    Noon is, on average, when the sun is at its highest. Why mess with that? Why move high noon to 2pm?
    They did it in the UK in WW2. To save on energy. 1941-45 and 1947, on checking.

    TBF to Horse, not many of us have a sundial on the patio, let alone carry oen around.
    It was silly then and it would be silly now. If people wasn't to get up earlier in the summer they are welcome to do so. But why would we want the government enforcing a clock change on the whole population?

    People are so childish about this. They can't possibly go to bed early and get up early themselves so they want the government to do it for them by stealth by changing the clocks in the middle of the night.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,234
    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nunu3 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Good poll for Buttigieg:

    #New 2028 Dem primary poll

    Kamala Harris - 43%
    Pete Buttigieg - 9%
    Gavin Newsom - 8%
    Tim walz - 7%
    Josh Shapiro - 5%
    Ocasio-Cortez - 4%

    if they pick him they lose. Bigger than this year.
    Doesn't it rather depend on how people feel in 2028?

    If the Trump administration makes everyone richer, then no matter who the Democrats pick, then there's going to be another Republican in the White House.

    While if tariffs result in significant inflation without appreciable job gains, then the Democrats could probably renominate Hillary and win.
    They've made Elon richer already

    CNN reported yesterday that since September Musk's estimated net worth has gone from $250bn to about $320bn. He is richer by $70bn, which is considerably more than the $44bn he paid for Twitter, and his ownership of Twitter is the main reason he is is now $70bn richer (coz it got Trump elected)

    That makes his purchase of Twitter perhaps the cleverest purchase of all time; certainly one of the most profitable
    And, ummm, how many votes does Elon have?

    Like every election, 2028 will mostly come down to "do people feel better off than four years previously"?

    Now, I'm sceptical that the tariffs plan will make Americans richer. But I could easily be wrong.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,889
    Carnyx said:

    Pre-woke era.

    I've been watching Gary W. Gallagher, a prominent historian, and his Great Courses lecture series on the American Civil War recently. It's comprehensive 48-lecture course that covers the political, social, and military aspects of the war all recorded in the year 2000.

    One thing he keeps saying in his lectures is how important it is not to apply the values and judgements of today to the people of the time, if we really want to understand what they did and why they did it, but to read what they actually said and actually did in the context of their own time. He does this repeatedly with analysis of the war, the roles played on the war front, home front, and civilian front and displays no judgement or bias in any analysis he delivers on any of it.

    Struck me as what an utterly radical point of view that would be today, simple academic objectiveness, and how we truly have gone backwards.

    Sorry, but that really is complete tosh. I've spent a lot of time listening to The Rest Is History podcasts by Tom Holland and Dominic Sandbrook recently (while exercising), and they repeatedly make exactly the same point.
    I was taught that before CR was even born, I suspect.
    Edit: in fact, thinking back, I learnt it at university in the 1970s when doing some extracurricular reading in the uni library.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,234

    moonshine said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nunu3 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I'll be honest, I don't think the Democrats will have as strong a candidate as the 2020 version of Biden for quite a while.

    I'd probably rank the recent Dem candidates as follows:

    08 Obama
    12 Obama
    20 Biden
    16 Clinton
    24 Harris
    24 Biden

    I would put Harris 24 above Hillary, despite the worse result. The bad result for Harris wasn't her fault. It was inflation and Joe not stepping down sooner.
    I think this is absolutely right: Harris was not a great candidate, but she was not as bad as Hillary.
    Do you think Clinton would have lost to John McCain in 2008?
    Yes. And I think she would have lost to Romney in 2012. And I'm certain she would have been defeated by Trump in 2016.

    (Actually, maybe not. The reality is that the incumbent administration was very unpopular in 2008. Maybe even Hillary could have won then.)
    Counterfactual time: either Clinton or McCain would have been much tougher on Russia than Obama was.
    McCain would certainly have been tough when the chips were down.
    Not obvious that any US President would have behaved much differently wrt Russia while comrade merkel was busily undermining european strategic resilience
    Obama was particularly in awe of Merkel.
    Based on?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,444
    Pulpstar said:

    I would be a strong advocate for the clocks going two hours forward in the summer.

    I almost flagged that. Just no.

    Get up earlier by setting your alarm earlier instead of having the government change everyone's clocks you lazy sod.

    Noon is, on average, when the sun is at its highest. Why mess with that? Why move high noon to 2pm?
    Schools, nurseries and most workplaces tend to finish at a certain time because that's when everyone else does. Unless you're retired you generally can't choose your own clock.
    Double summer would lead to longer evenings for most
    I always found it hard to get my daughter to go to sleep in the height of summer, particularly if it was very hot. Easier to sleep if it's later and it has cooled off a bit, but the clock change makes that much harder.

    I'd bet that if Britain moved to double summer time all that would happen is that the times things were open would gradually shift later, people would get up later and work later and there's be a push for school and nursery times to change to match.

    The main reason people don't get up earlier in the summer is because they don't want to go to bed when it's still light. This would be the same with double summer time.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,488
    rcs1000 said:

    moonshine said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nunu3 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I'll be honest, I don't think the Democrats will have as strong a candidate as the 2020 version of Biden for quite a while.

    I'd probably rank the recent Dem candidates as follows:

    08 Obama
    12 Obama
    20 Biden
    16 Clinton
    24 Harris
    24 Biden

    I would put Harris 24 above Hillary, despite the worse result. The bad result for Harris wasn't her fault. It was inflation and Joe not stepping down sooner.
    I think this is absolutely right: Harris was not a great candidate, but she was not as bad as Hillary.
    Do you think Clinton would have lost to John McCain in 2008?
    Yes. And I think she would have lost to Romney in 2012. And I'm certain she would have been defeated by Trump in 2016.

    (Actually, maybe not. The reality is that the incumbent administration was very unpopular in 2008. Maybe even Hillary could have won then.)
    Counterfactual time: either Clinton or McCain would have been much tougher on Russia than Obama was.
    McCain would certainly have been tough when the chips were down.
    Not obvious that any US President would have behaved much differently wrt Russia while comrade merkel was busily undermining european strategic resilience
    Obama was particularly in awe of Merkel.
    Based on?
    Her ability to carry off a bowl haircut and beige trousersuit?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,525
    Carnyx said:

    Pre-woke era.

    I've been watching Gary W. Gallagher, a prominent historian, and his Great Courses lecture series on the American Civil War recently. It's comprehensive 48-lecture course that covers the political, social, and military aspects of the war all recorded in the year 2000.

    One thing he keeps saying in his lectures is how important it is not to apply the values and judgements of today to the people of the time, if we really want to understand what they did and why they did it, but to read what they actually said and actually did in the context of their own time. He does this repeatedly with analysis of the war, the roles played on the war front, home front, and civilian front and displays no judgement or bias in any analysis he delivers on any of it.

    Struck me as what an utterly radical point of view that would be today, simple academic objectiveness, and how we truly have gone backwards.

    Sorry, but that really is complete tosh. I've spent a lot of time listening to The Rest Is History podcasts by Tom Holland and Dominic Sandbrook recently (while exercising), and they repeatedly make exactly the same point.
    I was taught that before CR was even born, I suspect.
    But to defend CR’s point, they may say it’s best to do that, but do they actually practice it? And the US Civil War is I think the best example of something only seen these days through modern eyes. Lincoln’s always seen as the saviour, who freed blacks from slavery. But he wanted them all deported back to Africa once freed, didn’t he? Like that’s no different than Trumps position. 🤷‍♀️

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    rcs1000 said:

    I wouldn't have a clue who Simon Russell Beale is..yet the Independent state he's "the greatest living stage actor of his generation" 🤔🥴

    I like him - he was superb as Falstaff in the Hollow Crown series - but I think that honour defiently goes to Mark Rylance. I have seen him several times in Shakespeare productions and he is remarkable. I think he is probably the best actor in all fields of his generation.
    Simon Russell Beale is certainly up there, if maybe not quite in the same league as Rylance. But if you're not into theatre, you might well not have seen him.

    (He was also utterly brilliant as Beria in The Death of Stalin. A rare film gem from him.)
    Quietly brilliant as an agent in the recent TV series about cancel culture with Hugh Bonneville.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,889
    edited November 20

    Carnyx said:

    Pre-woke era.

    I've been watching Gary W. Gallagher, a prominent historian, and his Great Courses lecture series on the American Civil War recently. It's comprehensive 48-lecture course that covers the political, social, and military aspects of the war all recorded in the year 2000.

    One thing he keeps saying in his lectures is how important it is not to apply the values and judgements of today to the people of the time, if we really want to understand what they did and why they did it, but to read what they actually said and actually did in the context of their own time. He does this repeatedly with analysis of the war, the roles played on the war front, home front, and civilian front and displays no judgement or bias in any analysis he delivers on any of it.

    Struck me as what an utterly radical point of view that would be today, simple academic objectiveness, and how we truly have gone backwards.

    Sorry, but that really is complete tosh. I've spent a lot of time listening to The Rest Is History podcasts by Tom Holland and Dominic Sandbrook recently (while exercising), and they repeatedly make exactly the same point.
    I was taught that before CR was even born, I suspect.
    But to defend CR’s point, they may say it’s best to do that, but do they actually practice it? And the US Civil War is I think the best example of something only seen these days through modern eyes. Lincoln’s always seen as the saviour, who freed blacks from slavery. But he wanted them all deported back to Africa once freed, didn’t he? Like that’s no different than Trumps position. 🤷‍♀️

    The quickest way to get sarcastic comment in writing history is to fail to practice that. It's a common problem in for instance retired doctors or scientists who have a very Whig (sensu Herbert Butterfield) mindset about their profession. The [edit] scathing reviews of those of their books which fall foul of that ...

    There's, moreover, a difference between (a) getting into the mindset of, say, 1750, as a detached and independent observer, and (b) actively commemorating that today.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,889

    Carnyx said:

    I would be a strong advocate for the clocks going two hours forward in the summer.

    I almost flagged that. Just no.

    Get up earlier by setting your alarm earlier instead of having the government change everyone's clocks you lazy sod.

    Noon is, on average, when the sun is at its highest. Why mess with that? Why move high noon to 2pm?
    They did it in the UK in WW2. To save on energy. 1941-45 and 1947, on checking.

    TBF to Horse, not many of us have a sundial on the patio, let alone carry oen around.
    It was silly then and it would be silly now. If people wasn't to get up earlier in the summer they are welcome to do so. But why would we want the government enforcing a clock change on the whole population?

    People are so childish about this. They can't possibly go to bed early and get up early themselves so they want the government to do it for them by stealth by changing the clocks in the middle of the night.
    I'm not commemorating or praising DST, just observing it, as a good historian!
  • rcs1000 said:

    I wouldn't have a clue who Simon Russell Beale is..yet the Independent state he's "the greatest living stage actor of his generation" 🤔🥴

    I like him - he was superb as Falstaff in the Hollow Crown series - but I think that honour defiently goes to Mark Rylance. I have seen him several times in Shakespeare productions and he is remarkable. I think he is probably the best actor in all fields of his generation.
    Simon Russell Beale is certainly up there, if maybe not quite in the same league as Rylance. But if you're not into theatre, you might well not have seen him.

    (He was also utterly brilliant as Beria in The Death of Stalin. A rare film gem from him.)
    Agreed. He does malevolent very well.
  • https://x.com/haynesdeborah/status/1859240547371659384

    BREAKING: The UK will scrap five warships, dozens of military helicopters and a fleet of drones to save money despite growing threats from Russia and a war raging in Europe.
    John Healey, the defence secretary, announced the dramatic move in parliament on Wednesday, saying it would save up to half a billion pounds over the next five years. The defence secretary described the equipment being axed as “outdated” and said the “common sense” decision to retire them was long overdue.
    He signalled the decision was part of a plan to restructure and modernise the armed forces, which have already been significantly reduced in size following decades of cost-saving cuts, with new capabilities due to come on line to replace the gaps.

    We don't have five warships to scrap!
    6 Attack Subs
    4 Nuke Subs
    2 Carriers
    6 Destroyers
    9 Frigates
    2 Assault (Landing) ships
    8 Offshore Patrol

    total 37 major ships
  • I wouldn't have a clue who Simon Russell Beale is..yet the Independent state he's "the greatest living stage actor of his generation" 🤔🥴

    I like him - he was superb as Falstaff in the Hollow Crown series - but I think that honour defiently goes to Mark Rylance. I have seen him several times in Shakespeare productions and he is remarkable. I think he is probably the best actor in all fields of his generation.
    Agree. Just been watching Rylance in Wolf Hall and he is absolutely mesmerising in an apparently effortless way. I can't quite put my finger on why he's so good, but even when he's silent you can't take your eyes off him.
    You actually have put your finger on it. His silence; a stillness that is utterly mesmerising.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,234
    TOPPING said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I wouldn't have a clue who Simon Russell Beale is..yet the Independent state he's "the greatest living stage actor of his generation" 🤔🥴

    I like him - he was superb as Falstaff in the Hollow Crown series - but I think that honour defiently goes to Mark Rylance. I have seen him several times in Shakespeare productions and he is remarkable. I think he is probably the best actor in all fields of his generation.
    Simon Russell Beale is certainly up there, if maybe not quite in the same league as Rylance. But if you're not into theatre, you might well not have seen him.

    (He was also utterly brilliant as Beria in The Death of Stalin. A rare film gem from him.)
    Quietly brilliant as an agent in the recent TV series about cancel culture with Hugh Bonneville.
    Ooohhh... sounds good.

    What's it called?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,003
    rcs1000 said:

    TOPPING said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I wouldn't have a clue who Simon Russell Beale is..yet the Independent state he's "the greatest living stage actor of his generation" 🤔🥴

    I like him - he was superb as Falstaff in the Hollow Crown series - but I think that honour defiently goes to Mark Rylance. I have seen him several times in Shakespeare productions and he is remarkable. I think he is probably the best actor in all fields of his generation.
    Simon Russell Beale is certainly up there, if maybe not quite in the same league as Rylance. But if you're not into theatre, you might well not have seen him.

    (He was also utterly brilliant as Beria in The Death of Stalin. A rare film gem from him.)
    Quietly brilliant as an agent in the recent TV series about cancel culture with Hugh Bonneville.
    Ooohhh... sounds good.

    What's it called?
    Douglas is cancelled. ITVx
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,156

    As a social liberal, it is clear that the real danger in elections is the election of non-social liberals.

    So we need to ban voting. To protect democracy.

    Makes about as much sense.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,156

    https://x.com/haynesdeborah/status/1859240547371659384

    BREAKING: The UK will scrap five warships, dozens of military helicopters and a fleet of drones to save money despite growing threats from Russia and a war raging in Europe.
    John Healey, the defence secretary, announced the dramatic move in parliament on Wednesday, saying it would save up to half a billion pounds over the next five years. The defence secretary described the equipment being axed as “outdated” and said the “common sense” decision to retire them was long overdue.
    He signalled the decision was part of a plan to restructure and modernise the armed forces, which have already been significantly reduced in size following decades of cost-saving cuts, with new capabilities due to come on line to replace the gaps.

    We don't have five warships to scrap!
    Do we have 5 that can be generously called warships for sake of a press release?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,156

    https://x.com/haynesdeborah/status/1859240547371659384

    BREAKING: The UK will scrap five warships, dozens of military helicopters and a fleet of drones to save money despite growing threats from Russia and a war raging in Europe.
    John Healey, the defence secretary, announced the dramatic move in parliament on Wednesday, saying it would save up to half a billion pounds over the next five years. The defence secretary described the equipment being axed as “outdated” and said the “common sense” decision to retire them was long overdue.
    He signalled the decision was part of a plan to restructure and modernise the armed forces, which have already been significantly reduced in size following decades of cost-saving cuts, with new capabilities due to come on line to replace the gaps.

    We don't have five warships to scrap!
    6 Attack Subs
    4 Nuke Subs
    2 Carriers
    6 Destroyers
    9 Frigates
    2 Assault (Landing) ships
    8 Offshore Patrol

    total 37 major ships
    Doesn't seem very many. I know they are damn expensive, but still.

    And how many work as desired?
  • I wouldn't have a clue who Simon Russell Beale is..yet the Independent state he's "the greatest living stage actor of his generation" 🤔🥴

    I like him - he was superb as Falstaff in the Hollow Crown series - but I think that honour defiently goes to Mark Rylance. I have seen him several times in Shakespeare productions and he is remarkable. I think he is probably the best actor in all fields of his generation.
    Nah, the greatest living stage actor is Sir Patrick Stewart, Brian Blessed a close second.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,525
    Leon said:

    Fuck me, dark already at 4pm

    When I feel it’s dark and I don’t like it, I’ve been watching Spanish series Love Is Forever and Luimelia to take my mind off it. Paula Usero is my new crush.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AjtzSxVHcsA
  • kle4 said:

    https://x.com/haynesdeborah/status/1859240547371659384

    BREAKING: The UK will scrap five warships, dozens of military helicopters and a fleet of drones to save money despite growing threats from Russia and a war raging in Europe.
    John Healey, the defence secretary, announced the dramatic move in parliament on Wednesday, saying it would save up to half a billion pounds over the next five years. The defence secretary described the equipment being axed as “outdated” and said the “common sense” decision to retire them was long overdue.
    He signalled the decision was part of a plan to restructure and modernise the armed forces, which have already been significantly reduced in size following decades of cost-saving cuts, with new capabilities due to come on line to replace the gaps.

    We don't have five warships to scrap!
    6 Attack Subs
    4 Nuke Subs
    2 Carriers
    6 Destroyers
    9 Frigates
    2 Assault (Landing) ships
    8 Offshore Patrol

    total 37 major ships
    Doesn't seem very many. I know they are damn expensive, but still.

    And how many work as desired?
    Compared with the Yanks:

    51 Attack Subs
    18 Nuke Subs
    11 Carriers
    9 Assault (Helicopter) Carriers
    9 Cruisers
    76 Destroyers
    25 Frigates ("Littoral ships")
    22 Assault (Landing) ships
    37 Offshore patrol (inc. large Coast Guard cutters)

    total 258 major warships
  • I wouldn't have a clue who Simon Russell Beale is..yet the Independent state he's "the greatest living stage actor of his generation" 🤔🥴

    I like him - he was superb as Falstaff in the Hollow Crown series - but I think that honour defiently goes to Mark Rylance. I have seen him several times in Shakespeare productions and he is remarkable. I think he is probably the best actor in all fields of his generation.
    Agree. Just been watching Rylance in Wolf Hall and he is absolutely mesmerising in an apparently effortless way. I can't quite put my finger on why he's so good, but even when he's silent you can't take your eyes off him.
    You actually have put your finger on it. His silence; a stillness that is utterly mesmerising.
    Is it any good?

    I tried reading Wolf Hall and found the artificiality of Mantel's style insufferable. I guess that's not an issue with the film production, so maybe I should try it?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,156

    I wouldn't have a clue who Simon Russell Beale is..yet the Independent state he's "the greatest living stage actor of his generation" 🤔🥴

    I like him - he was superb as Falstaff in the Hollow Crown series - but I think that honour defiently goes to Mark Rylance. I have seen him several times in Shakespeare productions and he is remarkable. I think he is probably the best actor in all fields of his generation.
    Agree. Just been watching Rylance in Wolf Hall and he is absolutely mesmerising in an apparently effortless way. I can't quite put my finger on why he's so good, but even when he's silent you can't take your eyes off him.
    You actually have put your finger on it. His silence; a stillness that is utterly mesmerising.
    Is it any good?

    I tried reading Wolf Hall and found the artificiality of Mantel's style insufferable. I guess that's not an issue with the film production, so maybe I should try it?
    I really didn't get why everyone apparently raved over Wolf Hall. There are innumerable other novels set in the same period about the same things, it seem very standard in that way, and I found the characterisation lacking, so it wasn't even a stand out of the genre.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,525
    On topic, I like the idea of the opinion polling pause for a while before voting.

    There’s something to be said for and against, which your header doesn’t do TSE. But voters minds shouldn’t be casting their votes based on what the polls are telling us the result will be, but casting votes based on the issues that matter to each voter, without thinking you know the result as distraction.

    And would the ban and bit more not knowing what’s going on, not help the political betting, creating nicer odds?
  • I wouldn't have a clue who Simon Russell Beale is..yet the Independent state he's "the greatest living stage actor of his generation" 🤔🥴

    I like him - he was superb as Falstaff in the Hollow Crown series - but I think that honour defiently goes to Mark Rylance. I have seen him several times in Shakespeare productions and he is remarkable. I think he is probably the best actor in all fields of his generation.
    Nah, the greatest living stage actor is Sir Patrick Stewart, Brian Blessed a close second.
    "And he piled upon the whale's white hump, the sum of all the rage and hate felt by his whole race. If his chest had been a cannon, he would have shot his heart upon it."
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,156
    edited November 20

    On topic, I like the idea of the opinion polling pause for a while before voting.

    There’s something to be said for and against, which your header doesn’t do TSE. But voters minds shouldn’t be casting their votes based on what the polls are telling us the result will be, but casting votes based on the issues that matter to each voter, without thinking you know the result as distraction.

    And would the ban and bit more not knowing what’s going on, not help the political betting, creating nicer odds?

    Voters should be casting their vote for all sorts of reasons, yet won't. Nick Palmer I believe has told the story of someone saying they would vote for him as he was tall. We cannot control how people will come to their decision with that kind of desired precision.

    I'm skeptical of how big an effect is from people changing their minds about how to vote because of what the polls might say anyway, feels like a post election justification.
This discussion has been closed.