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A promising start for Kemi Badenoch – politicalbetting.com
A promising start for Kemi Badenoch – politicalbetting.com
Kemi Badenoch’s challenge is convert those don’t knows into positives.
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Truss was the only other post 1945 PM as unpopular this early but she didn't even last 4 months
You end up with Reform 242 seats, Labour 181, the Tories 90 and LDs 75.
So Farage could be PM of a minority government with Tory confidence and supply. At the moment however Reform is still polling clearly below Farage's favourable rating and below the Tories and Labour still, even if up a bit on July
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=N&CON=21&LAB=23&LIB=12&Reform=28&Green=7&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTReform=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2024
Confession: In the years when I was piloting a double buggy, I may have made slightly more of a meal of squeezing along the side of a car parked such as this than was strictly necessary. Polite sticky notes may also have been used.
I don't want to be an absolutist about pavement parking. Sometimes the sensible thing to do is to perch your nearside wheel on the kerb, when kerbs pavements are wide and roads are narrow. It just needs some common sense.
There are also countless opportunities to design streets better and to show explicitly where parking is allowed. But it all costs money, and it all costs visual appeal.
Basically - just don't park like a twat.
eg https://www.google.com/maps/@53.117791,-1.2681744,3a,75y,265.24h,74.72t/data=!3m7!1e1!3m5!1szABF_kIrLEJtb_eU-PF5qw!2e0!6shttps://streetviewpixels-pa.googleapis.com/v1/thumbnail?cb_client=maps_sv.tactile&w=900&h=600&pitch=15.277888379073488&panoid=zABF_kIrLEJtb_eU-PF5qw&yaw=265.23830926182825!7i16384!8i8192?entry=ttu&g_ep=EgoyMDI0MTExMy4xIKXMDSoASAFQAw==
We have worse - driving into a marked parallel bay, then going half way across the pavement to leave space for the driver to open the door and get out inside the marked white line is a common pattern of ASB here.
https://www.google.com/maps/@53.1228296,-1.2546919,3a,75y,74.81h,73.97t/data=!3m7!1e1!3m5!1se8uA19QykuQLCKCd3PyLUQ!2e0!6shttps://streetviewpixels-pa.googleapis.com/v1/thumbnail?cb_client=maps_sv.tactile&w=900&h=600&pitch=16.032882435653647&panoid=e8uA19QykuQLCKCd3PyLUQ&yaw=74.80809293562598!7i16384!8i8192?entry=ttu&g_ep=EgoyMDI0MTExMy4xIKXMDSoASAFQAw==
https://yplac.co.uk/shop/
Not my style, as - like "angle grinder the barrier" - they won't fix the underlying issue.
(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges
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1h
That means Kemi Badenoch is committed to going into the next election with her two priorities being a tax cut for farmers with proprieties worth over £3 million, and a tax cut for parents of private school children. I'm not sure that's where the Tories need to be.
And on topic Kemi has a real opportunity to take advantage of the awful early months into Starmer's government, and it is telling that Starmer and Reeves are taking a real hit in the favourable ratings but it was entirely predictable when they told the country their manifesto was fully costed when it clearly wasn't
They boxed themselves in to get elected, and are unable to use the best means of raising tax through income tax, vat, and NI
I really am dismayed how bad they have been and certainly far more Corbyn than Blair in character
Dad says "just go through and we will deal with the consequences later..." Lots of scratched cars, but the fire engine got through.
Can only imagine the insurance claims nowadays.
Whether one approves of him or not, Farage is a talented politician.
As is Bojo. He could be one of Plutarch’s examples of wasted talent, like Alkibiades, brought down by his total lack of self-discipline and restraint.
When I was a fund manager, two of my older colleagues bought farms. Partly this was because they were obsessive fans of shooting small birds out of the sky ("the humane harvesting of organic free range produce" claimed one). But mostly it was to enable them to take advantage of the inheritance tax break. This will - of course - have pushed up the price of farmland, because people like my colleagues will have acquired farms solely for tax reasons.
I am not a fan of exemptions. Why should passing on a shoe shop to one's daughter be subject to inheritance tax, but not a a corn field? And why should a town house be subject to tax, but a farm house be not.
On the other hand, inheritance tax is easily dodged by the wealthy and the well prepared. The use of trusts, gifts, and ensuring assets are held by corporate bodies is such that if you don't want to pay IHT, you don't need to.
I would therefore abolish it, and replace it with a very small (say 0.1%) gross assets levy.
Idiots.
Labour 26%
Conservative 13%
Lib Dems 13%
Mind you here in North Wales conservatives have won 4 locals from Labour recently
On the wider issue it would be excellent for Wales to see Labour lose the Senedd in 2026
* I have no tables and do not know if these are subsamples or an actual Welsh poll
NEW: Keir Starmer says he is "absolutely not" engaged in a class war on wealthy people
Rigby: "You’ve targeted people who send their kids to private schools, people who earn income from assets, landowners, small business owners. There is a pattern here, is this class war?"
Labour could have kept the exemption for 3 generations or more of family farmers but refused as it is a measure of socialist class war
No idea if that was true, but I can believe it.
Then I realised that was just how he looks...
She's the perfect storm. A clownish libertarian for the home counties retirees and a fiscally tight pseudo-globalist for the red wall. IMO If we keep the current leaders for 2029: Reform will be on a higher voter percentage and Labour a small majority or Libdem & Green confidence and supply. Honestly Nige is much closer to power than I want.
Johnson killed the modern Conservative party and Badenoch will be alienating the last of the base.
Is corn from a family owned farm different to corn from a farm owned by a company?
Abolishing IHT altogether and introducing a very low rate assets tax would be a simpler and less objectionable way to deal with the distortion that the exemption of agricultural land from IHT created, compared to the policy that Labour introduced.
Well, I'm glad we've cleared that up then.
Really not sure leading with these guys is doing the farming lobby any favours with the wider public? But maybe that’s just my left-liberal bubble speaking.
If Badenoch can persuade the 'Don't Knows' to like her, she wins. That's certainly possible, but is it likely?
The IHT loophole encourages farmers to sell their farms to wealthy investment fund managers.
Obviously there comes a time when the public have made their mind up, but opposition leaders sometimes get a second chance with the voters, if the voters are desperate enough.
Now the EU wants to reverse our noble bravery, and kill off every last British puffin and puffling
"Puffins, Kittiwakes, Razorbills—the UK’s decision to end sandeel fishing was a hard-won lifeline for our struggling seabirds.
The EU’s move to challenge it risks undoing that progress. 🚨
We urge the Commission to support, not undermine, this key step for marine biodiversity."
https://x.com/Natures_Voice/status/1858820509732843521
It is farming families who know how to work the land, who care about the food they produce for the local community and our nation even when the chips are down as during the war. Global corporations care for neither and would happily sell most of the food they produce abroad if the price was right and just use the land for short term profit not long term benefit.
That is why the tractor tax is so hated with 57% of British voters wanting it scrapped and just 24% wanting inheritance tax on family farms
https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1858787981303185664
(I am now going to don the PB tin hat and crouch down behind my settee, with a yard brush for self-defence.)
For example I believe in the UK that children’s shoes (and clothes?) are VAT exempt.
Should all clothes not suffer VAT? We are happy that there is a good reason why there are different treatments.
If exempting farmers and farms from IHT serves a benefit to society by keeping together farmland to ensure sizes are cost effective to manage then that is surely good as it keeps a healthy industry going.
Maybe a better approach would have been to exempt owner occupier farmers so that those tracts of farmland owned by wealthy individuals as an asset that were leased out and no activity by owner would be taxed but not family farms.
*tugs forelock and taps side of nose at the same time*
Look, they’re rich, smart guys, they must know what they’re talking abaht.
Surely it simply encourages farmers to sell their land to investment managers and to pocket a quick buck.
Much as I dislike the decision to waste time and money on CCS, your making yourself look like a twerp to set off capital expenditure against recurring taxation.
I was right, the voters do not like people getting unjustifiable tax exemptions.
I completely agree that carbon capture is a complete waste of money at the current time, with far better options available for carbon reduction if that’s the government’s goal, but the annoucement was for £22billion over 25 years, so less than a £1billion / annum.
IHT raises ~£7.5billion / annum.
Cutting WFA is a spectacularly ludicrous policy for little gain
The farmers on the other hand? Sod 'em!
If she isn't booted I predict that in about 18 months, when it is obvious the growth is not coming and her insane tax proposals are actually costing money, not making it, Starmer will sacrifice her to save his own skin
"Where did you go?" he asked.
"I went to school in Repton.
"Oh", he said, "a posho."
"No," I replied. "I went to school in Repton, not at Repton. I was at primary school there."
However unchallenged globalist liberalism is near the end of its day, hence Trump, hence Brexit and Farage, hence Meloni, hence Le Pen, hence the AfD, hence Modi, hence even Corbyn, Melenchon and Sanders and Lula and arguably even Putin.
Indeed even the Liberal Democrats, supposedly the main party of globalist liberalism now in the UK, oppose the tractor tax
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fish_meal
Who would the 242 Reform MPs actually be, and what skills and abilities and experience would they possess? How will they actually govern?
I guess it's possible they might surprise on the upside, and there would be a few decent individual members I'm sure, but on balance I'd expect an unprofessional, uncoordinated shitshow that makes the 2015 SNP Westminster intake look competent. Possibly even on a par with those BNP councillors from a few years back who struggled to even read the agendas for council meetings.
If the current five - chosen for the top target seats - represent the top 0.5% of what the party has to offer, the overall calibre must be shocking.
I know this is probably not how your typical Reform voter thinks, but if they expect to get Farage x 242, they're likely going to be in for disappointment.
Instead of the original tax dodge he will now have to invest time and money in a different tax dodge, and he is quote upset about it
We might just get used to the absolute facts we never truly saw that governments are incompetent by nature under the skin.
The miners strike might have turned out so differently if we'd had Kemi on board.
So the Tories, LDs, Reform and SNP will still hammer Labour on their wicked tractor tax which will destroy the family farmland on which our nation's foodsupply depends
People talk about all the outrage and histrionics on the left, but the right are just as guilty on things like means-testing WFP, IHT, anything Ed Miliband looks at, RAF fighter jets not shooting down ballistic missiles etc etc.
It's incredibly bad comms from Labour - Clarkson thinks the policy was hastily arranged, even Defra have had a swipe at Reeves for the way it's being implemented
(Indoor 50-metre pools are quite unusual in the UK; most are 25 metre. I was quite looking forward to swimming in it, but the boom had broken down halfway across, so we ended up swimming in one half of the pool, climbing out, then getting into the other half to continue the swim.)
Detailed, and probably includes some things that will not be familiar.
A church on its knees: the Welby legacy
https://www.churchmousepublishing.co.uk/2024/11/a-church-on-its-knees-welby-legacy.html
* I think this is the correct word, since the period in-between Vicars is called an interregnum.
https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/winter-fuel-cut-up-to-100000-pensioners-poverty-dwp-analysis-shows-3389224?
Would you prefer Farmer Tess or Monsanto in charge of the corporate.
Plus re your previous post, game is one of the most natural foods to eat. Nice, free range life then shot out of the sky. And delicious.
And of course your ex colleagues bought farms because as well as the tax there is the status. And I appreciate you can switch round the priority of those but many City boys want to be Country Gents. The tax is just the icing on the cake.