politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The latest Lord Ashcroft marginals poll is out
The latest round of Lord Ashcroft marginal polling is out. He says Two types of constituencies feature in my last round of marginals polling for 2014. First, the next tranche of seats the Conservatives are defending from Labour; second, a selection of seats where Labour may be under threat from UKIP. I have also returned to the solitary Green constituency, Brighton Pavilion.
Comments
-
Remember how far ahead Labour were in Lord Ashcroft's Heywood and Middleton poll... Great Grimsby won't be voting for Austin Mitchell at the GE - I'd wager a good deal of the constituency switchers don't realise that so it is TCTC imo. I'm glad I'm on at 16-1 anyway.0
-
4-6 with Paddy Power is massive for the Greens in Brighton Pavilion. Just maxed on it myself.0
-
Wasn't it said on here that the Greens commissioned their own poll in Brighton Pavilion but didn't publish it as they were behind?
The only other seats I can see Labour challenging further down the list are the London based ones.0 -
Very encouraging numbers for UKIP, and quite encouraging for the Conservatives. Combined with the Ipsos Mori numbers, Labour have gone from polling Heaven to hell in 24 hours.0
-
What will surely worry Miliband is the lack of Green voters switching when asked about their own constituency. If they are getting 4% in the marginals that could be a big problem for Labour. I can't believe Ukip will get on average 14-15% in the marginals unless they're around 20% nationally.0
-
Not overall. The key for UKIP is to persuade local Conservatives in places like Grimsby, Rotherham, and Dudley North to vote for them tactically, to unseat Labour.FrankBooth said:What will surely worry Miliband is the lack of Green voters switching when asked about their own constituency. If they are getting 4% in the marginals that could be a big problem for Labour. I can't believe Ukip will get on average 14-15% in the marginals unless they're around 20% nationally.
Where a Green isn't standing, I'd expect their votes to go to Lib Dems, Labour, UKIP, Conservative, in that order.
0 -
Blimey it's all kicking off and I've no time to see what is going on!!!!
0 -
F1: Ecclestone proves he's lost touch again, by proposing (again) a return to naturally aspirated engines:
http://www1.skysports.com/f1/news/12472/9610936/bernie-ecclestone-will-again-propose-f1-returns-to-normally-aspirated-engines
Without the new engines some manufacturers wouldn't've stayed, and Honda wouldn't've come back.0 -
It looks like this polling was done before the Autumn Statement, when the polls were definitely moving the Tory way. That may have stopped since.
It's all looking much as it has since the summer of 2010 - we are heading towards another hung Parliament. Now, though, the Tories seem to be in with a real shout of once again winning the most seats.0 -
Bugger. We're doomed.SouthamObserver said:It looks like this polling was done before the Autumn Statement, when the polls were definitely moving the Tory way. That may have stopped since.
It's all looking much as it has since the summer of 2010 - we are heading towards another hung Parliament. Now, though, the Tories seem to be in with a real shout of once again winning the most seats.
[take 2]0 -
+£9.82 Greens
-£18.74 Labour
in Brighton now.
Proof you can't always get a full green book on Constituencies.0 -
FPT
SouthamObserver said:
Murphy's most important task - and it is one that will probably not be achieved for a while yet - is to change the conversation. At the moment, the SNP stands in the face of Westminster and is able to blame everything that goes wrong on Westminster. It is the anti-Westminster party, much as UKIP is the anti-Westminster party in England. What Murphy has to do is ensure that the Scottish government is held fully accountable for the decisions it makes and that Scottish voters understand that it is the decisions of the Scottish government that have most impact on their day to day lives.
I said:
I agree with that but this is why he needs to be in Holyrood challenging Nicola Sturgeon every week, not being voices off in Westminster. If he does not stand for a Holyrood seat rather than a Westminster seat in May he will be making a serious mistake.
Ashcroft's Scottish polling in the New Year is going to be fascinating. Whatever its accuracy it will set the conversation.0 -
Ashcroft marginal poll & whatnot, - well done, on producing a VG thread at such short notice.0
-
Re Mori - last night Mr Owls was pleading for Tory PBers to panic on the back of 1 ICM, John O failed to oblige.
should we return the favour now?0 -
This looks to be a more serious decision:Patrick said:
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/dec/18/non-eu-family-members-visa-uk-european-court
0 -
SNP ahead on the first question in Ross, Skye and Lochaber, Lib Dems ahead on the second question.DavidL said:FPT
SouthamObserver said:
Murphy's most important task - and it is one that will probably not be achieved for a while yet - is to change the conversation. At the moment, the SNP stands in the face of Westminster and is able to blame everything that goes wrong on Westminster. It is the anti-Westminster party, much as UKIP is the anti-Westminster party in England. What Murphy has to do is ensure that the Scottish government is held fully accountable for the decisions it makes and that Scottish voters understand that it is the decisions of the Scottish government that have most impact on their day to day lives.
I said:
I agree with that but this is why he needs to be in Holyrood challenging Nicola Sturgeon every week, not being voices off in Westminster. If he does not stand for a Holyrood seat rather than a Westminster seat in May he will be making a serious mistake.
Ashcroft's Scottish polling in the New Year is going to be fascinating. Whatever its accuracy it will set the conversation.
Caithness, Sutherland will be clear as mud.
First and second questions to make grim reading for Labour in central belt heartlands.
That's my reckoning.
Biggest changes in first and second questions in Highland and Island seats, perhaps Shetland will be asked ?
0 -
SO re Spurs.
I hesitate to post this as I've got deja vu in doing so BUT after a few lucky away wins and last night's actual performance (and vs Everton too in part) - might we start to hope the large unwieldy squad will start to come in to its own over the busy Xmas period with so many games coming up....
For example vs Man U, their bench is nothing like ours in depth- on paper anyway....
It's the hope that kills you.0 -
Some thoughts on the previous thread about Jim Murphy and the SNP.
Just how are Scottish voters going to react to remarks about North Sea Oil?
BBC reports - 'The director of Premier Oil says no new North Sea projects are profitable with oil below $60 a barrel and the industry is "close to collapse". '
The standard bearer and catalyst for the SNP and independence is 'close to collapse'. This first of all rings alarm bells for the whole UK, but surely marks disaster for an independent Scotland.
For both Labour and Conservatives it should mark a return to normal politics. The bigger UK economy is able to withstand these oil shocks. It seems to me that one thing we might see in the Budget is an announcement of measures to help the Scottish economy.
The Conservatives cannot really expect much of a return for offering conservative policies in the new Scotland but they certainly ought to try and they can but hope. On the other hand, whether they deserve it or not, Labour ought to expect their traditional vote to hold up if they are at all capable of playing their cards right. Unfortunately.0 -
You're fighting the last war here, the focus now is on GE2015 - "No" to independence was the best thing that could have possibly happened to the SNP.Flightpath said:
The standard bearer and catalyst for the SNP and independence is 'close to collapse'. This first of all rings alarm bells for the whole UK, but surely marks disaster for an independent Scotland.0 -
"I have just been on the phone to Mike, and his initial cursory thought that this is bad news for Labour ..... "
Pass me the smelling salts!
Nice bar chart btw TSE.0 -
What an interesting and absorbing election campaign this is going to be, one in which endless permutations are possible.0
-
So, we had Wednesday off, but another episode of terrorist barbarism has emerged today:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-30529178
Boko Haram has kidnapped dozens of people.0 -
There's a separate Red Box YG poll just out (paywall) showing a third of Green votes going to Labour if the "thinking about your constituency" question is asked. It's the only significant shift produced by the questiuon in that poll. the proportion sounds about right to me - perhaps half the Green vote is blank-wall solid, the other half is open to persuasion.0
-
I would like to think so, from a hammering of Labour point of view.Pulpstar said:
You're fighting the last war here, the focus now is on GE2015 - "No" to independence was the best thing that could have possibly happened to the SNP.Flightpath said:
The standard bearer and catalyst for the SNP and independence is 'close to collapse'. This first of all rings alarm bells for the whole UK, but surely marks disaster for an independent Scotland.
Its an interesting concept that pulling the economic rug from under an independent Scotland and exposing the economic lies of the party peddling that independence and ending the ambitions underpinning the existence of that party is good for that party.
0 -
LOLScrapheap_as_was said:
Re Mori - last night Mr Owls was pleading for Tory PBers to panic on the back of 1 ICM, John O failed to oblige.
should we return the favour now?0 -
The key question is not whether the Lib Dems can hold on in their northern fortresses (the answer is yes by the way) but how vulnerable Labour are in the central belt and greater Glasgow in particular. If the current polling is sustained the odds on Labour being the largest party in the next Parliament are far too tight.Pulpstar said:
SNP ahead on the first question in Ross, Skye and Lochaber, Lib Dems ahead on the second question.DavidL said:FPT
SouthamObserver said:
Murphy's most important task - and it is one that will probably not be achieved for a while yet - is to change the conversation. At the moment, the SNP stands in the face of Westminster and is able to blame everything that goes wrong on Westminster. It is the anti-Westminster party, much as UKIP is the anti-Westminster party in England. What Murphy has to do is ensure that the Scottish government is held fully accountable for the decisions it makes and that Scottish voters understand that it is the decisions of the Scottish government that have most impact on their day to day lives.
I said:
I agree with that but this is why he needs to be in Holyrood challenging Nicola Sturgeon every week, not being voices off in Westminster. If he does not stand for a Holyrood seat rather than a Westminster seat in May he will be making a serious mistake.
Ashcroft's Scottish polling in the New Year is going to be fascinating. Whatever its accuracy it will set the conversation.
Caithness, Sutherland will be clear as mud.
First and second questions to make grim reading for Labour in central belt heartlands.
That's my reckoning.
Biggest changes in first and second questions in Highland and Island seats, perhaps Shetland will be asked ?0 -
Bad news for Labour, good news for decent hard working Britons. Long may it continue.0
-
It seems it is necessary to have a photo of Nigel Farage to 'sell' political commentary (as above) in the way newspapers have pictures of Lady Di on the front page to sell newspapers.0
-
What the >50% Yes vote means in Glasgow is the thing for me. I would like it to mean the Lab-SNP margins are close thus giving me a nice profit once I cash out on the newly narrowed markets but not do anything like show SNP leads that would make me hold my positions open.Pulpstar said:
SNP ahead on the first question in Ross, Skye and Lochaber, Lib Dems ahead on the second question.DavidL said:FPT
SouthamObserver said:
Murphy's most important task - and it is one that will probably not be achieved for a while yet - is to change the conversation. At the moment, the SNP stands in the face of Westminster and is able to blame everything that goes wrong on Westminster. It is the anti-Westminster party, much as UKIP is the anti-Westminster party in England. What Murphy has to do is ensure that the Scottish government is held fully accountable for the decisions it makes and that Scottish voters understand that it is the decisions of the Scottish government that have most impact on their day to day lives.
I said:
I agree with that but this is why he needs to be in Holyrood challenging Nicola Sturgeon every week, not being voices off in Westminster. If he does not stand for a Holyrood seat rather than a Westminster seat in May he will be making a serious mistake.
Ashcroft's Scottish polling in the New Year is going to be fascinating. Whatever its accuracy it will set the conversation.
Caithness, Sutherland will be clear as mud.
First and second questions to make grim reading for Labour in central belt heartlands.
That's my reckoning.
Biggest changes in first and second questions in Highland and Island seats, perhaps Shetland will be asked ?0 -
Next one will be much easier after London have shafted Scotland, the cry babies will regret voting for London having their hands up their jacksiesPulpstar said:
You're fighting the last war here, the focus now is on GE2015 - "No" to independence was the best thing that could have possibly happened to the SNP.Flightpath said:
The standard bearer and catalyst for the SNP and independence is 'close to collapse'. This first of all rings alarm bells for the whole UK, but surely marks disaster for an independent Scotland.0 -
Less money wasted on a pointless bit of bureaucracy making people shuffle a load of papers to go somewhere they have a right to go either way, and immigration bureaucrat time freed up to do something more useful. Everybody wins.SouthamObserver said:
This looks to be a more serious decision:Patrick said:
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/dec/18/non-eu-family-members-visa-uk-european-court0 -
This week's results are Ipsos Mori Con 3% ahead; ICM Lab 5 % ahead; Yougov Lab 0.8% ahead (on average); Populus Lab 2% ahead; Com Res Online Lab 1% ahead; Com Res telephone Lab 3% ahead, giving Labour an average lead of 1.5%.
0 -
For darts fans and bettors. There's an excellent docu on iPlayer about the big names in darts - particularly Bobby George and Eric Bristow. Well worth a watch.
Barry Hearn @BarryHearn
So excited - World darts starts today Our own Sky channel 1.25 million Prizemoney and 56000 punters. We did it together @OfficialPDC0 -
Since you are unable to accept the sovereign will of the Scottish people, I suggest you pack your bags as promised.malcolmg said:
Next one will be much easier after London have shafted Scotland, the cry babies will regret voting for London having their hands up their jacksiesPulpstar said:
You're fighting the last war here, the focus now is on GE2015 - "No" to independence was the best thing that could have possibly happened to the SNP.Flightpath said:
The standard bearer and catalyst for the SNP and independence is 'close to collapse'. This first of all rings alarm bells for the whole UK, but surely marks disaster for an independent Scotland.0 -
Ladbrokes changes
Stevenage- Lab 13/8 to Evens
Dudley North UKIP 4/1 to 3/1
Plymouth Moor View UKIP 8/1 to 9/2
Brighton Pavilion Greens 5/6 to 4/7
Rother Valley UKIP 5/1 to 4/10 -
When the cuts come and people see that what Yes campaign said actually occurred, it will not be the SNP blamed. It will be the lying toerag unionist parties. Poverty beckons for the labour drones who helped the Tories and hopefully they enjoy their shafting when queuing in the rain at the foodbanks..Flightpath said:
I would like to think so, from a hammering of Labour point of view.Pulpstar said:
You're fighting the last war here, the focus now is on GE2015 - "No" to independence was the best thing that could have possibly happened to the SNP.Flightpath said:
The standard bearer and catalyst for the SNP and independence is 'close to collapse'. This first of all rings alarm bells for the whole UK, but surely marks disaster for an independent Scotland.
Its an interesting concept that pulling the economic rug from under an independent Scotland and exposing the economic lies of the party peddling that independence and ending the ambitions underpinning the existence of that party is good for that party.-1 -
On the main theme, it's natural that the marginals lead is down as the national lead is also down (or vanished if we believe IPSOS-MORI, which should probably be bracketed with ICM as potential outliers). It's interesting to look at the 2nd question and see the variation, though as we've said before we have to be cautious about what is in effect prompting people to think about one particular aspect - e.g. voters in Pavilion must surely be aware that they have a Green MP, but it takes a specific prompt to "think about the constituency" to make them say they'll vote Green. My guess is that the correct figure is halfway between question 1 and question 2.0
-
He needs to sort out the defence and make sure Lamela never starts another game for us. They are clearly a lot fitter than they were, though. With Spurs it is as it has always been: one game at a time, expect the worst and once in a blue moon - like last night - get to be pleasantly surprised.Scrapheap_as_was said:SO re Spurs.
I hesitate to post this as I've got deja vu in doing so BUT after a few lucky away wins and last night's actual performance (and vs Everton too in part) - might we start to hope the large unwieldy squad will start to come in to its own over the busy Xmas period with so many games coming up....
For example vs Man U, their bench is nothing like ours in depth- on paper anyway....
It's the hope that kills you.
0 -
I'd hate to think what the cuts would be like if you didn't have Barnett or voted YES. Or would you prefer massive tax rises?malcolmg said:
When the cuts come and people see that what Yes campaign said actually occurred, it will not be the SNP blamed. It will be the lying toerag unionist parties.Flightpath said:
I would like to think so, from a hammering of Labour point of view.Pulpstar said:
You're fighting the last war here, the focus now is on GE2015 - "No" to independence was the best thing that could have possibly happened to the SNP.Flightpath said:
The standard bearer and catalyst for the SNP and independence is 'close to collapse'. This first of all rings alarm bells for the whole UK, but surely marks disaster for an independent Scotland.
Its an interesting concept that pulling the economic rug from under an independent Scotland and exposing the economic lies of the party peddling that independence and ending the ambitions underpinning the existence of that party is good for that party.0 -
Look at the collapse in oil prices, and imagine the scale of the cuts in a newly Independent Scotland.malcolmg said:
When the cuts come and people see that what Yes campaign said actually occurred, it will not be the SNP blamed. It will be the lying toerag unionist parties. Poverty beckons for the labour drones who helped the Tories and hopefully they enjoy their shafting when queuing in the rain at the foodbanks..Flightpath said:
I would like to think so, from a hammering of Labour point of view.Pulpstar said:
You're fighting the last war here, the focus now is on GE2015 - "No" to independence was the best thing that could have possibly happened to the SNP.Flightpath said:
The standard bearer and catalyst for the SNP and independence is 'close to collapse'. This first of all rings alarm bells for the whole UK, but surely marks disaster for an independent Scotland.
Its an interesting concept that pulling the economic rug from under an independent Scotland and exposing the economic lies of the party peddling that independence and ending the ambitions underpinning the existence of that party is good for that party.0 -
0-0 vs burnley is as good as I'm expecting..... 1-0 defeat fearedSouthamObserver said:
He needs to sort out the defence and make sure Lamela never starts another game for us. They are clearly a lot fitter than they were, though. With Spurs it is as it has always been: one game at a time, expect the worst and once in a blue moon - like last night - get to be pleasantly surprised.Scrapheap_as_was said:SO re Spurs.
I hesitate to post this as I've got deja vu in doing so BUT after a few lucky away wins and last night's actual performance (and vs Everton too in part) - might we start to hope the large unwieldy squad will start to come in to its own over the busy Xmas period with so many games coming up....
For example vs Man U, their bench is nothing like ours in depth- on paper anyway....
It's the hope that kills you.0 -
Making obesity into a 'disability' is a ridiculous and dangerous precedent. Being grossly obese is a lifestyle choice pure and simple. I've seen enough TV documentary on the subject to know every single one of them without exception is superfat because of gross over-eating and nothing else. Cake addiction is not a disability. It may be a disease (as all addiction can become I suppose). But then all addictions should qualify. Will we know make minging, can't stand up, argue with a lamp-post drunkenness a 'disability'? Why the effing hell should the rest of society be obliged to accommodate the chronically weak willed?SouthamObserver said:
This looks to be a more serious decision:Patrick said:
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/dec/18/non-eu-family-members-visa-uk-european-court0 -
You really do say some unkind things about your fellow Scots......do you somehow think that with $60 oil an independent Scotland would have been better off?malcolmg said:
Poverty beckons for the labour drones who helped the Tories and hopefully they enjoy their shafting when queuing in the rain at the foodbanks..Flightpath said:
I would like to think so, from a hammering of Labour point of view.Pulpstar said:
You're fighting the last war here, the focus now is on GE2015 - "No" to independence was the best thing that could have possibly happened to the SNP.Flightpath said:
The standard bearer and catalyst for the SNP and independence is 'close to collapse'. This first of all rings alarm bells for the whole UK, but surely marks disaster for an independent Scotland.
Its an interesting concept that pulling the economic rug from under an independent Scotland and exposing the economic lies of the party peddling that independence and ending the ambitions underpinning the existence of that party is good for that party.
0 -
What is that incessant whining noise?
It seems to have got louder since September 18th...0 -
MalcolmG's great big windy fanny. Must be the poor diet.Scott_P said:What is that incessant whining noise?
It seems to have got louder since September 18th...0 -
Should society accommodate people that have become disabled as a result of the choices they have made? I don't know. But if you are 40 stone and cannot move it seems pretty obvious to me that you are not going to be physically able in the way you would be if you were 20 stone lighter. Thus, you are disabled.Patrick said:
Making obesity into a 'disability' is a ridiculous and dangerous precedent. Being grossly obese is a lifestyle choice pure and simple. I've seen enough TV documentary on the subject to know every single one of them without exception is superfat because of gross over-eating and nothing else. Cake addiction is not a disability. It may be a disease (as all addiction can become I suppose). But then all addictions should qualify. Will we know make minging, can't stand up, argue with a lamp-post drunkenness a 'disability'? Why the effing hell should the rest of society be obliged to accommodate the chronically weak willed?SouthamObserver said:
This looks to be a more serious decision:Patrick said:
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/dec/18/non-eu-family-members-visa-uk-european-court
0 -
WOW!!! That IpsosMORI poll is something else ...... when did we last see one of the front line pollsters showing the Tories 3% ahead? Put a right curve in your ELBOW Sunil, rework your projection for tomorrow Prof. Fisher, admit it Nick Palmer ...... your boys just took one hell of a beating, your boys just took one hell of a beating.
TSE - get out out those pots of deepest technicolor blue in readiness for a mega splash of a thread coming up soon surely.
I notice that Sporting's GE Seats market is currently closed, it appears that they are about to adjust their prices.0 -
Fortunately, we in Scotland do not have to experience the results of the lies, bullying, distortions of truth and outright bluster of an independent Fantasy Scotland run by the Yestapo of the SNP under Alec Salmond.malcolmg said:
When the cuts come and people see that what Yes campaign said actually occurred, it will not be the SNP blamed. It will be the lying toerag unionist parties.Flightpath said:
I would like to think so, from a hammering of Labour point of view.Pulpstar said:
You're fighting the last war here, the focus now is on GE2015 - "No" to independence was the best thing that could have possibly happened to the SNP.Flightpath said:
The standard bearer and catalyst for the SNP and independence is 'close to collapse'. This first of all rings alarm bells for the whole UK, but surely marks disaster for an independent Scotland.
Its an interesting concept that pulling the economic rug from under an independent Scotland and exposing the economic lies of the party peddling that independence and ending the ambitions underpinning the existence of that party is good for that party.
The one question you will not like to answer is: Why did the membership of the SNP soar immediately after Salmond resigned? Hint: It wasn't as an outpouring of grief at His departure.
And as Nicola Sturgeon remarked, if (ever) Salmond returns to (the hated towers and chambers down in) England, the MP's in Westminster will certainly be shaking in their shoes. They will be laughing their socks off at him.0 -
so from a legal prospective do you give them car park spaces by the door, or right at the back of the car park to force exercise ?SouthamObserver said:
Should society accommodate people that have become disabled as a result of the choices they have made? I don't know. But if you are 40 stone and cannot move it seems pretty obvious to me that you are not going to be physically able in the way you would be if you were 20 stone lighter. Thus, you are disabled.Patrick said:
Making obesity into a 'disability' is a ridiculous and dangerous precedent. Being grossly obese is a lifestyle choice pure and simple. I've seen enough TV documentary on the subject to know every single one of them without exception is superfat because of gross over-eating and nothing else. Cake addiction is not a disability. It may be a disease (as all addiction can become I suppose). But then all addictions should qualify. Will we know make minging, can't stand up, argue with a lamp-post drunkenness a 'disability'? Why the effing hell should the rest of society be obliged to accommodate the chronically weak willed?SouthamObserver said:
This looks to be a more serious decision:Patrick said:
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/dec/18/non-eu-family-members-visa-uk-european-court0 -
Lord Ashcroft said he moved up the list to try and find the point where the Tories stopped losing seats. Wonder if it would be fair to say we have reached that point now.0
-
Er, last month's Ipsos Moro.peter_from_putney said:WOW!!! That IpsosMORI poll is something else ...... when did we last see one of the front line pollsters showing the Tories 3% ahead?
0 -
Part-ELBOW for the 7 polls so far this week, inc. MORI.
Lab 33.4%
Con 32.2%
UKIP 14.2%
LD 8.2%0 -
Does someone have that link to that nice list of constituencies sorted by how winnable they were for the parties?0
-
No Ashcroft VI poll for all of GB?0
-
Must be an outlier thenJohnLilburne said:
Er, last month's Ipsos Moro.peter_from_putney said:WOW!!! That IpsosMORI poll is something else ...... when did we last see one of the front line pollsters showing the Tories 3% ahead?
0 -
Yep! IpsosMORI in Never-Never Land. Get ready to burn the Yule Log.peter_from_putney said:WOW!!! That IpsosMORI poll is something else ...... when did we last see one of the front line pollsters showing the Tories 3% ahead? Put a right curve in your ELBOW Sunil, rework your projection for tomorrow Prof. Fisher, admit it Nick Palmer ...... your boys just took one hell of a beating, your boys just took one hell of a beating.
TSE - get out out those pots of deepest technicolor blue in readiness for a mega splash of a thread coming up soon surely.
I notice that Sporting's GE Seats market is currently closed, it appears that they are about to adjust their prices.0 -
Sunil Prasannan @Sunil_P2 · Nov 24
Con to Lab % swings at Westminster by-elections compared with GE 2010 for each seat. Average = 7.65%
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/5370446010651975690 -
No. The next poll will be in the New Year.Sunil_Prasannan said:No Ashcroft VI poll for all of GB?
0 -
Thanks for that!Sean_F said:
No. The next poll will be in the New Year.Sunil_Prasannan said:No Ashcroft VI poll for all of GB?
0 -
@TelePolitics: Tony Booth: Will Ed Miliband win the election? 'In your f****** dreams http://t.co/xyvvlvuKMM0
-
Still not quite sure why the public should be forking out their hard earned cash to someone because they couldn't control themselves enough in the cake cupboard. Its an insult to people who were born disabled or disabled by accident or combat to have someone claiming the same benefits as them because they couldn't put down the icecream scoop.SouthamObserver said:Should society accommodate people that have become disabled as a result of the choices they have made? I don't know. But if you are 40 stone and cannot move it seems pretty obvious to me that you are not going to be physically able in the way you would be if you were 20 stone lighter. Thus, you are disabled.
0 -
Obesity may be caused by illness, as well as laziness and gluttony. I haven't had the chance to look at this judgement in detail.Patrick said:
Making obesity into a 'disability' is a ridiculous and dangerous precedent. Being grossly obese is a lifestyle choice pure and simple. I've seen enough TV documentary on the subject to know every single one of them without exception is superfat because of gross over-eating and nothing else. Cake addiction is not a disability. It may be a disease (as all addiction can become I suppose). But then all addictions should qualify. Will we know make minging, can't stand up, argue with a lamp-post drunkenness a 'disability'? Why the effing hell should the rest of society be obliged to accommodate the chronically weak willed?SouthamObserver said:
This looks to be a more serious decision:Patrick said:
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/dec/18/non-eu-family-members-visa-uk-european-court
0 -
Nightmares, surely.Scott_P said:@TelePolitics: Tony Booth: Will Ed Miliband win the election? 'In your f****** dreams http://t.co/xyvvlvuKMM
0 -
Your elbow has fracturedSunil_Prasannan said:Part-ELBOW for the 7 polls so far this week, inc. MORI.
Lab 33.4%
Con 32.2%
UKIP 14.2%
LD 8.2%
7 polls have had Lib Dems at 6.6.8.9.10.12.14 65 divided by 7 is 9.30 -
I make it simple average of the 7 polls: 1.4% Lab leadSean_F said:This week's results are Ipsos Mori Con 3% ahead; ICM Lab 5 % ahead; Yougov Lab 0.8% ahead (on average); Populus Lab 2% ahead; Com Res Online Lab 1% ahead; Com Res telephone Lab 3% ahead, giving Labour an average lead of 1.5%.
or if you prefer, the part-ELBOW weighted average: 1.2% Lab lead0 -
If you are paralytically drunk and cannot move it seems pretty obvious to me that you are not going to be physically able in the way you would if you were sober. Thus you are disabled.SouthamObserver said:
Should society accommodate people that have become disabled as a result of the choices they have made? I don't know. But if you are 40 stone and cannot move it seems pretty obvious to me that you are not going to be physically able in the way you would be if you were 20 stone lighter. Thus, you are disabled.Patrick said:
Making obesity into a 'disability' is a ridiculous and dangerous precedent. Being grossly obese is a lifestyle choice pure and simple. I've seen enough TV documentary on the subject to know every single one of them without exception is superfat because of gross over-eating and nothing else. Cake addiction is not a disability. It may be a disease (as all addiction can become I suppose). But then all addictions should qualify. Will we know make minging, can't stand up, argue with a lamp-post drunkenness a 'disability'? Why the effing hell should the rest of society be obliged to accommodate the chronically weak willed?SouthamObserver said:
This looks to be a more serious decision:Patrick said:
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/dec/18/non-eu-family-members-visa-uk-european-court0 -
Whoever wins in May, we lose.MonikerDiCanio said:
Nightmares, surely.Scott_P said:@TelePolitics: Tony Booth: Will Ed Miliband win the election? 'In your f****** dreams http://t.co/xyvvlvuKMM
0 -
No, no!MarkSenior said:
Your elbow has fracturedSunil_Prasannan said:Part-ELBOW for the 7 polls so far this week, inc. MORI.
Lab 33.4%
Con 32.2%
UKIP 14.2%
LD 8.2%
7 polls have had Lib Dems at 6.6.8.9.10.12.14 65 divided by 7 is 9.3
We have the LibDems on
128 out of 1649
98 out of 1597
77 out of 544
49 out of 554
74 out of 1302
72 out of 587
111 out of 1167
giving a total of
609 out of 7399 = 8.2%
There!
0 -
Thats one view. The other is that a number of European countries have residency papers that are little more than a typed on piece of card, not the sort of secure document like a passport you might normally want to admit someone to your country. This means a) that we will potentially be forced to admit people on the basis of easily forged documentation and b) as a result they might not even be who they say they are, never mind a valid resident on the country they claim to be resident in. It's a right pigs ear. If we must admit other countries residents (as opposed to citizens) on this basis they should atleast be forced to introduce a secure form of ID to indicate this status. I wonder what the going rate is for a residency card in Bulgaria.edmundintokyo said:Less money wasted on a pointless bit of bureaucracy making people shuffle a load of papers to go somewhere they have a right to go either way, and immigration bureaucrat time freed up to do something more useful. Everybody wins.
0 -
Tony Booth, " This is not play school ". LOL.Scott_P said:@TelePolitics: Tony Booth: Will Ed Miliband win the election? 'In your f****** dreams http://t.co/xyvvlvuKMM
0 -
I liked: [Tony Booth] is said to be suffering from dementia, but was described by his interviewer, Robert Chalmers, as “more coherent than most serving MPs I have met.”MonikerDiCanio said:
Tony Booth, " This is not play school ". LOL.Scott_P said:@TelePolitics: Tony Booth: Will Ed Miliband win the election? 'In your f****** dreams http://t.co/xyvvlvuKMM
0 -
Child abuse inquiry: Police investigate three alleged murders
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-30534235
Tick tick tick....0 -
So not only do you take an unbalanced sample with 3 Yougov polls to produce your average , you unbalance it even more by taking a Yougov poll as having 3 times the worth of an ICM poll .Sunil_Prasannan said:
No, no!MarkSenior said:
Your elbow has fracturedSunil_Prasannan said:Part-ELBOW for the 7 polls so far this week, inc. MORI.
Lab 33.4%
Con 32.2%
UKIP 14.2%
LD 8.2%
7 polls have had Lib Dems at 6.6.8.9.10.12.14 65 divided by 7 is 9.3
We have the LibDems on
128 out of 1649
98 out of 1597
77 out of 544
49 out of 554
74 out of 1302
72 out of 587
111 out of 1167
giving a total of
609 out of 7399 = 8.2%
There!
In addition you are taking the raw VI figure from ICM and ignoring the final adjustment ICM make which increased the LD VI figure from 11 to 14% .
Suggest you rename your analysis as C*CKUP0 -
The visa process only stops dementedly patriotic illegal immigrants, because otherwise they'd ask the person forging their documents to put down that they were a national of the EU country producing the document, instead of their actual country, and thus avoid the whole officious circus.Indigo said:
Thats one view. The other is that a number of European countries have residency papers that are little more than a typed on piece of card, not the sort of secure document like a passport you might normally want to admit someone to your country. This means a) that we will potentially be forced to admit people on the basis of easily forged documentation and b) as a result they might not even be who they say they are, never mind a valid resident on the country they claim to be resident in. It's a right pigs ear. If we must admit other countries residents (as opposed to citizens) on this basis they should atleast be forced to introduce a secure form of ID to indicate this status. I wonder what the going rate is for a residency card in Bulgaria.edmundintokyo said:Less money wasted on a pointless bit of bureaucracy making people shuffle a load of papers to go somewhere they have a right to go either way, and immigration bureaucrat time freed up to do something more useful. Everybody wins.
Outside the obvious bureaucratic job preservation motivation it's also not obvious why they insist on people repeating the whole bastard thing every 6 months, as if they're going to use a genuine document the first time then switch to a fake one.0 -
Labour down on their vote share in 7 of the 13 seats.
Brighton Pavilion was a 1% Labour lead in July. It's now a 10% Green lead.
Dudley N was a 13 point Labour lead in May. It's now 3
Great Grimsby was a 12 point Labour lead in may. It is now 1.
Tories have deciding 'tactical' vote in all 4 Lab-UKIP marginals if they wish to use it.
0 -
We should also remember that using the recommended BMI figures almost all professional rugby players are obese .Sean_F said:
Obesity may be caused by illness, as well as laziness and gluttony. I haven't had the chance to look at this judgement in detail.Patrick said:
Making obesity into a 'disability' is a ridiculous and dangerous precedent. Being grossly obese is a lifestyle choice pure and simple. I've seen enough TV documentary on the subject to know every single one of them without exception is superfat because of gross over-eating and nothing else. Cake addiction is not a disability. It may be a disease (as all addiction can become I suppose). But then all addictions should qualify. Will we know make minging, can't stand up, argue with a lamp-post drunkenness a 'disability'? Why the effing hell should the rest of society be obliged to accommodate the chronically weak willed?SouthamObserver said:
This looks to be a more serious decision:Patrick said:
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/dec/18/non-eu-family-members-visa-uk-european-court
0 -
On Blomberg there is a story about a person who has just negotiated a 100 grand discount on a house in a London borough from the level one sold at in April.
We have been censored for mentioning the decline in the price of oil ( and petrol) recently, but property prices too are certainly softening.
0 -
In other words "I think you're understating the LibDems, which makes me sad"MarkSenior said:
So not only do you take an unbalanced sample with 3 Yougov polls to produce your average , you unbalance it even more by taking a Yougov poll as having 3 times the worth of an ICM poll .Sunil_Prasannan said:
No, no!MarkSenior said:
Your elbow has fracturedSunil_Prasannan said:Part-ELBOW for the 7 polls so far this week, inc. MORI.
Lab 33.4%
Con 32.2%
UKIP 14.2%
LD 8.2%
7 polls have had Lib Dems at 6.6.8.9.10.12.14 65 divided by 7 is 9.3
We have the LibDems on
128 out of 1649
98 out of 1597
77 out of 544
49 out of 554
74 out of 1302
72 out of 587
111 out of 1167
giving a total of
609 out of 7399 = 8.2%
There!
In addition you are taking the raw VI figure from ICM and ignoring the final adjustment ICM make which increased the LD VI figure from 11 to 14% .
Suggest you rename your analysis as C*CKUP0 -
On the polling...people always seem way too quick to spy a short term trend, like Autumn Statement has gone Labour's way, because found one poll stretching the lead.
The long term trend is clear that Labour have lost a huge chunk of support and the Tories have ticked up every so slightly, and it is now very close.
For the Tories though, close is not good enough at the GE, and there is no signs they have much chance of out polling 2010, something which historically is extremely difficult for a governing party. Plus they have lost a decent chunk to UKIP, many of which hate Cameron as much as Miliband and are willing to stick with that even if they end up with Miliband.
We could well be heading to Lib Dem's again being the power broker, despite in all likelihood doing incredibly badly at the GE (although I doubt as bad as the polls currently suggest).0 -
Nope , in other words , you are publishing a load of CR*PAnorak said:
In other words "I think you're understating the LibDems, which makes me sad"MarkSenior said:
So not only do you take an unbalanced sample with 3 Yougov polls to produce your average , you unbalance it even more by taking a Yougov poll as having 3 times the worth of an ICM poll .Sunil_Prasannan said:
No, no!MarkSenior said:
Your elbow has fracturedSunil_Prasannan said:Part-ELBOW for the 7 polls so far this week, inc. MORI.
Lab 33.4%
Con 32.2%
UKIP 14.2%
LD 8.2%
7 polls have had Lib Dems at 6.6.8.9.10.12.14 65 divided by 7 is 9.3
We have the LibDems on
128 out of 1649
98 out of 1597
77 out of 544
49 out of 554
74 out of 1302
72 out of 587
111 out of 1167
giving a total of
609 out of 7399 = 8.2%
There!
In addition you are taking the raw VI figure from ICM and ignoring the final adjustment ICM make which increased the LD VI figure from 11 to 14% .
Suggest you rename your analysis as C*CKUP0 -
@May2015NS: Labour's lead falls to 1% in http://t.co/j83TeVu53L's Poll of Polls after today's Ipsos poll. Greens at 7%. http://t.co/cjuLKzyKBd0
-
Forging something involving a piece of card and a typewriter for country A, its probably several orders of magnitude easier (and hence cheaper) than forging a credit card with secure RFIDs and holographic imprints from Country B. If you want to live in Country B you might not be able to afford 20 grand for a world class forger to make your ID, you might be able to get Mrs Miggins and her typewriter to knock you out one for Country A for 20 quid. With this ruling we have to take the card made by Mrs Miggins at face value, even if we have good reason to suspect that cards are habitually and frequently forged by people coming from that country, and even if we have good intelligence that said cards can be bought for a few quid.edmundintokyo said:That only stops dementedly patriotic illegal immigrants, because otherwise they'd ask the person forging their documents to put down that they were a national of the EU country producing the document, instead of their actual country, and thus avoid the whole bureaucratic circus.
It's also not obvious why they repeat the whole bastard thing every 6 months, as if they're going to use a genuine document the first time then switch to a fake one.
Its bad enough that some EU countries are SELLING passports.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2531995/Hundreds-thousands-outside-EU-head-UK-passport-loophole.html
0 -
A) The Sunil on Sunday ELBOW (Electoral Leader-Board Of the Week) was introduced back in mid-August by Lord Sunil (the rag's proprietor and headline-finder pursuivant) purely as an alternative metric of any given week's polling data. It should not be taken as Gospel, and should always be compared with simple averages that seem to be more "traditional".MarkSenior said:
So not only do you take an unbalanced sample with 3 Yougov polls to produce your average , you unbalance it even more by taking a Yougov poll as having 3 times the worth of an ICM poll .Sunil_Prasannan said:
No, no!MarkSenior said:
Your elbow has fracturedSunil_Prasannan said:Part-ELBOW for the 7 polls so far this week, inc. MORI.
Lab 33.4%
Con 32.2%
UKIP 14.2%
LD 8.2%
7 polls have had Lib Dems at 6.6.8.9.10.12.14 65 divided by 7 is 9.3
We have the LibDems on
128 out of 1649
98 out of 1597
77 out of 544
49 out of 554
74 out of 1302
72 out of 587
111 out of 1167
giving a total of
609 out of 7399 = 8.2%
There!
In addition you are taking the raw VI figure from ICM and ignoring the final adjustment ICM make which increased the LD VI figure from 11 to 14% .
Suggest you rename your analysis as C*CKUP
Regarding the ICM (and Ashcroft): we look at the final published figures and always try and see if the figures in their tables AFTER adjustment tally with what they publish. We assume 50% of DK and refused for their stated 2010 parties. And the same is true with all pollsters. We use the samples quoted in their tables, always checking that the data makes sense. Sometimes, thankfully rarely, there are cases where the published VI figures are at variance with the data in the tables even AFTER adjustment. We always use data that to the best of our knowledge is quoted in or derived from the tables.
C) This week's ICM gives LibDems 14% AFTER adjustment, so I'm not sure why you think we're quoting 11%. Do the maths: 77 of 544 is 14.15% to be precise!0 -
A) you are living in a fantasy world there is no such thing as a Sunil on Sunday and producing an " average of polls " where one pollster has 9 times the weight/value of another is mathematically flawed .Sunil_Prasannan said:
A) The Sunil on Sunday ELBOW (Electoral Leader-Board Of the Week) was introduced back in mid-August by Lord Sunil (the rag's proprietor and headline-finder pursuivant) purely as an alternative metric of any given week's polling data. It should not be taken as Gospel, and should always be compared with simple averages that seem to be more "traditional".MarkSenior said:
So not only do you take an unbalanced sample with 3 Yougov polls to produce your average , you unbalance it even more by taking a Yougov poll as having 3 times the worth of an ICM poll .Sunil_Prasannan said:
No, no!MarkSenior said:
Your elbow has fracturedSunil_Prasannan said:Part-ELBOW for the 7 polls so far this week, inc. MORI.
Lab 33.4%
Con 32.2%
UKIP 14.2%
LD 8.2%
7 polls have had Lib Dems at 6.6.8.9.10.12.14 65 divided by 7 is 9.3
We have the LibDems on
128 out of 1649
98 out of 1597
77 out of 544
49 out of 554
74 out of 1302
72 out of 587
111 out of 1167
giving a total of
609 out of 7399 = 8.2%
There!
In addition you are taking the raw VI figure from ICM and ignoring the final adjustment ICM make which increased the LD VI figure from 11 to 14% .
Suggest you rename your analysis as C*CKUP Regarding the ICM (and Ashcroft): we look at the final published figures and always try and see if the figures in their tables AFTER adjustment tally with what they publish. We assume 50% of DK and refused for their stated 2010 parties. And the same is true with all pollsters. We use the samples quoted in their tables, always checking that the data makes sense. Sometimes, thankfully rarely, there are cases where the published VI figures are at variance with the data in the tables even AFTER adjustment. We always use data that to the best of our knowledge is quoted in or derived from the tables.
C) This week's ICM gives LibDems 14% AFTER adjustment, so I'm not sure why you think we're quoting 11%. Do the maths: 77 of 544 is 14.15% to be precise!0 -
Out of interest what's the country you're thinking of where you think the residence card for foreigners is really easy to forge but the equivalent identity card for nationals is hard to forge?Indigo said:
Forging something involving a piece of card and a typewriter for country A, its probably several orders of magnitude easier (and hence cheaper) than forging a credit card with secure RFIDs and holographic imprints from Country B. If you want to live in Country B you might not be able to afford 20 grand for a world class forger to make your ID, you might be able to get Mrs Miggins and her typewriter to knock you out one for Country A for 20 quid. With this ruling we have to take the card made by Mrs Miggins at face value, even if we have good reason to suspect that cards are habitually and frequently forged by people coming from that country, and even if we have good intelligence that said cards can be bought for a few quid.edmundintokyo said:That only stops dementedly patriotic illegal immigrants, because otherwise they'd ask the person forging their documents to put down that they were a national of the EU country producing the document, instead of their actual country, and thus avoid the whole bureaucratic circus.
It's also not obvious why they repeat the whole bastard thing every 6 months, as if they're going to use a genuine document the first time then switch to a fake one.
Its bad enough that some EU countries are SELLING passports.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2531995/Hundreds-thousands-outside-EU-head-UK-passport-loophole.html0 -
Well the Ealing Central & Acton numbers have cheered me up. Hopefully some compensation for my misguided voting efforts of 2010!
Plus the other half of the Rentool households Lab-Green coalition will be pleased by the Brighton Pav numbers.
I agree that Lord A has pretty much found the limit of of Labour gains from the Cons. We really need the Scots numbers to see who will be largest party.0 -
Not if you read the CJEU judgement, you are not.Patrick said:
If you are paralytically drunk and cannot move it seems pretty obvious to me that you are not going to be physically able in the way you would if you were sober. Thus you are disabled.SouthamObserver said:
Should society accommodate people that have become disabled as a result of the choices they have made? I don't know. But if you are 40 stone and cannot move it seems pretty obvious to me that you are not going to be physically able in the way you would be if you were 20 stone lighter. Thus, you are disabled.Patrick said:
Making obesity into a 'disability' is a ridiculous and dangerous precedent. Being grossly obese is a lifestyle choice pure and simple. I've seen enough TV documentary on the subject to know every single one of them without exception is superfat because of gross over-eating and nothing else. Cake addiction is not a disability. It may be a disease (as all addiction can become I suppose). But then all addictions should qualify. Will we know make minging, can't stand up, argue with a lamp-post drunkenness a 'disability'? Why the effing hell should the rest of society be obliged to accommodate the chronically weak willed?SouthamObserver said:
This looks to be a more serious decision:Patrick said:
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/dec/18/non-eu-family-members-visa-uk-european-court
The concept of ‘disability’ within the meaning of the directive must be understood as referring to a limitation which results in particular from long-term physical, mental or psychological impairments which in interaction with various barriers may hinder the full and effective participation of the person concerned in professional life on an equal basis with other workers. The Court emphasises that this concept must be understood as referring not only to the impossibility of exercising a professional activity, but also to a hindrance to the exercise of such an activity. The directive has the object of implementing equal treatment and aims in particular to enable a person with a disability to have access to or participate in employment. In addition, it would run counter to the aim of the directive if its application was dependent on the origin of the disability.
http://curia.europa.eu/jcms/jcms/Jo2_16799
The CJEU, of course, is tasked with interpreting European law as laid out in various directives and regulations. It does not pluck its rulings out of nowhere.
0 -
You really have no sense of humour, do you Mark?!MarkSenior said:
A) you are living in a fantasy world there is no such thing as a Sunil on Sunday and producing an " average of polls " where one pollster has 9 times the weight/value of another is mathematically flawed .Sunil_Prasannan said:
A) The Sunil on Sunday ELBOW (Electoral Leader-Board Of the Week) was introduced back in mid-August by Lord Sunil (the rag's proprietor and headline-finder pursuivant) purely as an alternative metric of any given week's polling data. It should not be taken as Gospel, and should always be compared with simple averages that seem to be more "traditional".MarkSenior said:
So not only do you take an unbalanced sample with 3 Yougov polls to produce your average , you unbalance it even more by taking a Yougov poll as having 3 times the worth of an ICM poll .Sunil_Prasannan said:
No, no!MarkSenior said:
Your elbow has fracturedSunil_Prasannan said:Part-ELBOW for the 7 polls so far this week, inc. MORI.
7 polls have had Lib Dems at 6.6.8.9.10.12.14 65 divided by 7 is 9.3
We have the LibDems on
128 out of 1649
98 out of 1597
77 out of 544
49 out of 554
74 out of 1302
72 out of 587
111 out of 1167
giving a total of
609 out of 7399 = 8.2%
There!
In addition you are taking the raw VI figure from ICM and ignoring the final adjustment ICM make which increased the LD VI figure from 11 to 14% .
Suggest you rename your analysis as C*CKUP Regarding the ICM (and Ashcroft): we look at the final published figures and always try and see if the figures in their tables AFTER adjustment tally with what they publish. We assume 50% of DK and refused for their stated 2010 parties. And the same is true with all pollsters. We use the samples quoted in their tables, always checking that the data makes sense. Sometimes, thankfully rarely, there are cases where the published VI figures are at variance with the data in the tables even AFTER adjustment. We always use data that to the best of our knowledge is quoted in or derived from the tables.
C) This week's ICM gives LibDems 14% AFTER adjustment, so I'm not sure why you think we're quoting 11%. Do the maths: 77 of 544 is 14.15% to be precise!
Next you'll be saying there's no such thing as Jack W's ARSE!!
I say again: ELBOW is purely as an alternative metric of any given week's polling data. It should not be taken as Gospel, and should always be compared with simple averages that seem to be more "traditional".
And do you take back your accusation that our analysis of this week's ICM is flawed?
Post-adjustments, LD = 77 out of 544 = 14.15%. The unadjusted total is 51 out of 477 = 10.69%. We used the 77, not the 51.0 -
My year is complete - I've just got a retweet from Alistair Stewart!0
-
Mark is probably unaware that the week's data so far puts the LDs 0.7% ahead of where they were last week in ELBOW (7.5%).0
-
Nationals have a EU passport.edmundintokyo said:
Out of interest what's the country you're thinking of where you think the residence card for foreigners is really easy to forge but the equivalent identity card for nationals is hard to forge?
0 -
But it will inevitably mean companies being required to provide extra-large chairs, extra deep desk cutouts, special tools, wide doors, strengthened supports and lifting equipment, in other words extra expense for their business because people eat too much. Our competitors outside the EU must be laughing all the way to the bank.SouthamObserver said:The CJEU, of course, is tasked with interpreting European law as laid out in various directives and regulations. It does not pluck its rulings out of nowhere.
0 -
Plus specially strengthened loo seats, handrails, elevators etc Is there a directive for subsidised food or extra large portions for the 'mass challenged'?Indigo said:
But it will inevitably mean companies being required to provide extra-large chairs, extra deep desk cutouts, in other words extra expense for their business because people eat too much. Our competitors outside the EU must be laughing all the way to the bank.SouthamObserver said:The CJEU, of course, is tasked with interpreting European law as laid out in various directives and regulations. It does not pluck its rulings out of nowhere.
0 -
Jobs for the Metropolitan Liberal Elite Boys (and Girls)
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/dennis-sewell/2014/12/what-on-earth-qualifies-alan-rusbridger-for-an-academic-position/At high tables across the university, former journalists, broadcasting executives and quangocrats are increasingly occupying places of honour once reserved for scholars of great renown.
And now Rusbridger at Lady Margaret Hall.
Ensconced in the master’s chair at St Peter’s College is the former controller of BBC Radio 4, Mark Damazer. The principal of St Anne’s is former Newsnight editor and Channel 4 executive Tim Gardam. Ex-Guardian and Economist writer Frances Cairncross is the rector of Exeter College.
0 -
That instantly made me think of My Sad Cat twitter account - it's very funny
@mysadcatAnorak said:
In other words "I think you're understating the LibDems, which makes me sad"MarkSenior said:
So not only do you take an unbalanced sample with 3 Yougov polls to produce your average , you unbalance it even more by taking a Yougov poll as having 3 times the worth of an ICM poll .Sunil_Prasannan said:
No, no!MarkSenior said:
Your elbow has fracturedSunil_Prasannan said:Part-ELBOW for the 7 polls so far this week, inc. MORI.
Lab 33.4%
Con 32.2%
UKIP 14.2%
LD 8.2%
7 polls have had Lib Dems at 6.6.8.9.10.12.14 65 divided by 7 is 9.3
We have the LibDems on
128 out of 1649
98 out of 1597
77 out of 544
49 out of 554
74 out of 1302
72 out of 587
111 out of 1167
giving a total of
609 out of 7399 = 8.2%
There!
In addition you are taking the raw VI figure from ICM and ignoring the final adjustment ICM make which increased the LD VI figure from 11 to 14% .
Suggest you rename your analysis as C*CKUP0 -
People holding national ID cards from EU countries can enter the UK with that, no?Indigo said:
Nationals have a EU passport.edmundintokyo said:
Out of interest what's the country you're thinking of where you think the residence card for foreigners is really easy to forge but the equivalent identity card for nationals is hard to forge?0 -
@PlatoPlato said:That instantly made me think of My Sad Cat twitter account - it's very funny
@mysadcatAnorak said:
In other words "I think you're understating the LibDems, which makes me sad"MarkSenior said:
So not only do you take an unbalanced sample with 3 Yougov polls to produce your average , you unbalance it even more by taking a Yougov poll as having 3 times the worth of an ICM poll .Sunil_Prasannan said:
No, no!MarkSenior said:
Your elbow has fracturedSunil_Prasannan said:Part-ELBOW for the 7 polls so far this week, inc. MORI.
Lab 33.4%
Con 32.2%
UKIP 14.2%
LD 8.2%
7 polls have had Lib Dems at 6.6.8.9.10.12.14 65 divided by 7 is 9.3
We have the LibDems on
128 out of 1649
98 out of 1597
77 out of 544
49 out of 554
74 out of 1302
72 out of 587
111 out of 1167
giving a total of
609 out of 7399 = 8.2%
There!
In addition you are taking the raw VI figure from ICM and ignoring the final adjustment ICM make which increased the LD VI figure from 11 to 14% .
Suggest you rename your analysis as C*CKUP
I was thinking more of Big Bang Theory
Sheldon: Why are you crying?
Penny: Because I am stupid!
Sheldon: That's no reason to cry. One cries because one is sad. For example, I cry because other people are stupid, which makes me sad.
0 -
Presumably ARSE ad ELBOW plus the others are trying to add to the sum of human knowledge as well as entertain. Doesn't Mark raise some valid points which could improve the accuracy of your ELBOW?Sunil_Prasannan said:Mark is probably unaware that the week's data so far puts the LDs 0.7% ahead of where they were last week in ELBOW (7.5%).
0
![[Deleted User]](https://wd.vanillicon.com/d2ea526b1b06ed109333f390c7ae956b_100.png)
