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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The latest Lord Ashcroft marginals poll is out
The latest round of Lord Ashcroft marginal polling is out. He says Two types of constituencies feature in my last round of marginals polling for 2014. First, the next tranche of seats the Conservatives are defending from Labour; second, a selection of seats where Labour may be under threat from UKIP. I have also returned to the solitary Green constituency, Brighton Pavilion.
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The only other seats I can see Labour challenging further down the list are the London based ones.
Where a Green isn't standing, I'd expect their votes to go to Lib Dems, Labour, UKIP, Conservative, in that order.
http://www1.skysports.com/f1/news/12472/9610936/bernie-ecclestone-will-again-propose-f1-returns-to-normally-aspirated-engines
Without the new engines some manufacturers wouldn't've stayed, and Honda wouldn't've come back.
It's all looking much as it has since the summer of 2010 - we are heading towards another hung Parliament. Now, though, the Tories seem to be in with a real shout of once again winning the most seats.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/11300793/EU-court-rules-that-fatness-can-constitute-a-disability.html
[take 2]
-£18.74 Labour
in Brighton now.
Proof you can't always get a full green book on Constituencies.
SouthamObserver said:
Murphy's most important task - and it is one that will probably not be achieved for a while yet - is to change the conversation. At the moment, the SNP stands in the face of Westminster and is able to blame everything that goes wrong on Westminster. It is the anti-Westminster party, much as UKIP is the anti-Westminster party in England. What Murphy has to do is ensure that the Scottish government is held fully accountable for the decisions it makes and that Scottish voters understand that it is the decisions of the Scottish government that have most impact on their day to day lives.
I said:
I agree with that but this is why he needs to be in Holyrood challenging Nicola Sturgeon every week, not being voices off in Westminster. If he does not stand for a Holyrood seat rather than a Westminster seat in May he will be making a serious mistake.
Ashcroft's Scottish polling in the New Year is going to be fascinating. Whatever its accuracy it will set the conversation.
should we return the favour now?
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/dec/18/non-eu-family-members-visa-uk-european-court
Caithness, Sutherland will be clear as mud.
First and second questions to make grim reading for Labour in central belt heartlands.
That's my reckoning.
Biggest changes in first and second questions in Highland and Island seats, perhaps Shetland will be asked ?
I hesitate to post this as I've got deja vu in doing so BUT after a few lucky away wins and last night's actual performance (and vs Everton too in part) - might we start to hope the large unwieldy squad will start to come in to its own over the busy Xmas period with so many games coming up....
For example vs Man U, their bench is nothing like ours in depth- on paper anyway....
It's the hope that kills you.
Just how are Scottish voters going to react to remarks about North Sea Oil?
BBC reports - 'The director of Premier Oil says no new North Sea projects are profitable with oil below $60 a barrel and the industry is "close to collapse". '
The standard bearer and catalyst for the SNP and independence is 'close to collapse'. This first of all rings alarm bells for the whole UK, but surely marks disaster for an independent Scotland.
For both Labour and Conservatives it should mark a return to normal politics. The bigger UK economy is able to withstand these oil shocks. It seems to me that one thing we might see in the Budget is an announcement of measures to help the Scottish economy.
The Conservatives cannot really expect much of a return for offering conservative policies in the new Scotland but they certainly ought to try and they can but hope. On the other hand, whether they deserve it or not, Labour ought to expect their traditional vote to hold up if they are at all capable of playing their cards right. Unfortunately.
Pass me the smelling salts!
Nice bar chart btw TSE.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-30529178
Boko Haram has kidnapped dozens of people.
Its an interesting concept that pulling the economic rug from under an independent Scotland and exposing the economic lies of the party peddling that independence and ending the ambitions underpinning the existence of that party is good for that party.
Barry Hearn @BarryHearn
So excited - World darts starts today Our own Sky channel 1.25 million Prizemoney and 56000 punters. We did it together @OfficialPDC
Stevenage- Lab 13/8 to Evens
Dudley North UKIP 4/1 to 3/1
Plymouth Moor View UKIP 8/1 to 9/2
Brighton Pavilion Greens 5/6 to 4/7
Rother Valley UKIP 5/1 to 4/1
It seems to have got louder since September 18th...
TSE - get out out those pots of deepest technicolor blue in readiness for a mega splash of a thread coming up soon surely.
I notice that Sporting's GE Seats market is currently closed, it appears that they are about to adjust their prices.
The one question you will not like to answer is: Why did the membership of the SNP soar immediately after Salmond resigned? Hint: It wasn't as an outpouring of grief at His departure.
And as Nicola Sturgeon remarked, if (ever) Salmond returns to (the hated towers and chambers down in) England, the MP's in Westminster will certainly be shaking in their shoes. They will be laughing their socks off at him.
Lab 33.4%
Con 32.2%
UKIP 14.2%
LD 8.2%
Con to Lab % swings at Westminster by-elections compared with GE 2010 for each seat. Average = 7.65%
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/537044601065197569
7 polls have had Lib Dems at 6.6.8.9.10.12.14 65 divided by 7 is 9.3
or if you prefer, the part-ELBOW weighted average: 1.2% Lab lead
We have the LibDems on
128 out of 1649
98 out of 1597
77 out of 544
49 out of 554
74 out of 1302
72 out of 587
111 out of 1167
giving a total of
609 out of 7399 = 8.2%
There!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-30534235
Tick tick tick....
In addition you are taking the raw VI figure from ICM and ignoring the final adjustment ICM make which increased the LD VI figure from 11 to 14% .
Suggest you rename your analysis as C*CKUP
Outside the obvious bureaucratic job preservation motivation it's also not obvious why they insist on people repeating the whole bastard thing every 6 months, as if they're going to use a genuine document the first time then switch to a fake one.
Brighton Pavilion was a 1% Labour lead in July. It's now a 10% Green lead.
Dudley N was a 13 point Labour lead in May. It's now 3
Great Grimsby was a 12 point Labour lead in may. It is now 1.
Tories have deciding 'tactical' vote in all 4 Lab-UKIP marginals if they wish to use it.
We have been censored for mentioning the decline in the price of oil ( and petrol) recently, but property prices too are certainly softening.
The long term trend is clear that Labour have lost a huge chunk of support and the Tories have ticked up every so slightly, and it is now very close.
For the Tories though, close is not good enough at the GE, and there is no signs they have much chance of out polling 2010, something which historically is extremely difficult for a governing party. Plus they have lost a decent chunk to UKIP, many of which hate Cameron as much as Miliband and are willing to stick with that even if they end up with Miliband.
We could well be heading to Lib Dem's again being the power broker, despite in all likelihood doing incredibly badly at the GE (although I doubt as bad as the polls currently suggest).
Its bad enough that some EU countries are SELLING passports.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2531995/Hundreds-thousands-outside-EU-head-UK-passport-loophole.html
C) This week's ICM gives LibDems 14% AFTER adjustment, so I'm not sure why you think we're quoting 11%. Do the maths: 77 of 544 is 14.15% to be precise!
Plus the other half of the Rentool households Lab-Green coalition will be pleased by the Brighton Pav numbers.
I agree that Lord A has pretty much found the limit of of Labour gains from the Cons. We really need the Scots numbers to see who will be largest party.
The concept of ‘disability’ within the meaning of the directive must be understood as referring to a limitation which results in particular from long-term physical, mental or psychological impairments which in interaction with various barriers may hinder the full and effective participation of the person concerned in professional life on an equal basis with other workers. The Court emphasises that this concept must be understood as referring not only to the impossibility of exercising a professional activity, but also to a hindrance to the exercise of such an activity. The directive has the object of implementing equal treatment and aims in particular to enable a person with a disability to have access to or participate in employment. In addition, it would run counter to the aim of the directive if its application was dependent on the origin of the disability.
http://curia.europa.eu/jcms/jcms/Jo2_16799
The CJEU, of course, is tasked with interpreting European law as laid out in various directives and regulations. It does not pluck its rulings out of nowhere.
Next you'll be saying there's no such thing as Jack W's ARSE!!
I say again: ELBOW is purely as an alternative metric of any given week's polling data. It should not be taken as Gospel, and should always be compared with simple averages that seem to be more "traditional".
And do you take back your accusation that our analysis of this week's ICM is flawed?
Post-adjustments, LD = 77 out of 544 = 14.15%. The unadjusted total is 51 out of 477 = 10.69%. We used the 77, not the 51.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/dennis-sewell/2014/12/what-on-earth-qualifies-alan-rusbridger-for-an-academic-position/ And now Rusbridger at Lady Margaret Hall.
@mysadcat
I was thinking more of Big Bang Theory
Sheldon: Why are you crying?
Penny: Because I am stupid!
Sheldon: That's no reason to cry. One cries because one is sad. For example, I cry because other people are stupid, which makes me sad.