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More momentum for Cleverly – politicalbetting.com
More momentum for Cleverly – politicalbetting.com
The Conservative Party needs to rebuild trust on economic competence, cutting migration and reforming public services. Strong, clear and measured. James has what it takes.Read why I’m backing @JamesCleverly? https://t.co/Ko6ENSZ6le
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I suspect that he will pick up the TT group, FWTIW, as well.
Would that be a First?
In theory, the new leader will be announced just after the start of Diwali but I expect one of the final two to withdraw like Andrea Leadsom so there will be no members' vote. It is said that David Cameron was unhappy to be replaced before summer.
That said, if someone sufficiently of the right can convince, ok fool the Reformers that they have their back while in fact signalling to the Cameroons that the Cons is going to become less ghastly then that would be job done.
Only Cleverly and TT I think would be able to do that. It's quite a complicated political strategy, that said, because you wouldn't be able to be explicit with either side about what they were really up to.
I, as an ex-Cons Cameroonian Remainer, would be happy with either of those because I would (want, or convince myself) to believe that that was the strategy they were employing.
Then again, I admire Badenoch because she is out there as who she is and has a raw honesty and talent.
Jenrick is a "safe" pair of hands and superficially attractive (looks the part as cross between Clark Kent and James Corden) who is unlikely to form and hold together an election-winning coalition of current and former ex-Cons.
“🆕In today’s Playbook our latest @Moreincommon_ voting intention has Labour’s lead at 1 point
🌹Lab 29% (-1)
🌳Con 28% (+2)
➡️ Ref 19% (+1)
🔶Lib Dem 11% (-2)
🌎 Green 7% (-1)
🟡 SNP 2% (-1)
Dates: 5-7/10 n= 2023, changes with 24-25/9”
What if the pollsters are STILL overstating Labour by 6-7 points?! We just don’t know. So the situation might REALLY be
🌹Lab 22
🌳Con 32
➡️ Ref 23
🔶Lib Dem 11%
🌎 Green 7%
🟡 SNP 2%
Labour THIRD
I know a lawyer has to represent their client as best as they can but can you at least be vaguely plausible...
And in reality he shouldn't have let Osbourne put in a referendum given the plan to destroy the lib dem vote..
If you're going to just make the numbers up why not put Labour in fifth?
They can talk about migration, but they have to wait until people have forgotten their recent record.
Here are the latest facts:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/10/07/joe-biden-pushed-uk-to-surrender-chagos-islands/
Biden pushed for the deal very hard knowing a court case was coming that would binding and see them lose access to airbase.
Also yougov now have Labour at 59% sleazy compared to lhe last government of 77%
Labour are not having a good first 100 days
https://x.com/YouGov/status/1843188778489565437?t=L8JUoZbHU_VSwmqAtwFOWA&s=19
I think it’s bollocks, or at least only half of a deeper story. Its spin put out by Labour (and maybe even Tories) as they see how badly this is playing
However if it IS true, fuck Joe Biden
Polls are at their most accurate after an election because the pollsters automatically ask people how they voted at the election, false recall isn't an issue at this point.
I am clearly in a playful mood. Hence my use of REALLOCATION™️
I know it is only Leon and it is PB and polling all that but this is how a lot of the internet works right now.
I'd have ignored the ruling.
societyinternational law.The poor innocent.
The boats either need to all be returned to France (the French will want us to take a quota of theirs for this) or the HRA/ECHR is disapplied so those intercepted in the Channel can be immediately offshored or deported at will with no recourse to appeal.
The Tory vote share did not change much in the polls, but Reform, LD and Green starting to move significantly. If polls are useful for one thing, it's catching such movements - they just failed to pick up the massive scale of it.
Using that logic, and assuming that polls are understating the change since the election by 2x, I get:
🌹Lab 27
🌳Con 24
➡️ Ref 25
🔶Lib Dem 11%
🌎 Green 9%
But I doubt it. I think things are probably quite stable, with the exception perhaps of a new movement to Reform.
And we have a LD government with a 200 majority with the Monster Raving Lonnie's in opposition.
Pointless stuff.
More likely the USA was alarmed by the UK’s spineless cowardice, in even considering this nonsense, and THEN told us to sort it out if we were determined to “cede territory”
The USA is in a very bad place.
Still, if they keep the mind off the thought that an 80 seat majority was thrown away and there are now just 121 Conservative MPs in the House, they may be said to serve some purpose.
The rest frankly is just irrelevant
Being somewhat cynical.
Clearly Labour need to get a grip. Gray obviously failed in her job of preparing Labour to hit the ground running. They have 4 years of safe majority in which to recover from the poor start.
What is the point of taking a poll and then just randomly change the numbers.
Leon's hurt feeelings, not so much.
But it's not unreasonable to criticise our government for being a bit spineless over the affair.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/oct/08/boris-johnson-hits-out-at-greedy-keir-starmer-over-freebies
So fiddling the results without any knowledge of the adjustments or the raw data?
Mights as well use Scottish sub-samples of 1.65 people and a cat (subsequently eaten by @Leon)
Sure you haven't got a couple of pencils stuck up your nose ?
Its playing badly with GB news viewers.
We have two fiction writers in our midst
I can't comment on Mr Clipp, who could be a bus conductor, an old fashioned police officer, or a man with a board and a pencil.
Oh and that multi tasking. Just wondering how you managed to 'simultaneously' drive while drinking coffee and ordering airline tickets plus posting here and reading a Spectator article. How many eyes and arms do you have or is that another ludicrous extrapolation?
But the ICJ would probably give them to them too if it's members wanted it.
Memes.
“One Fifth of All Millionaires To Leave Britain by 2028”
https://x.com/guidofawkes/status/1843554081672954112?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/10/07/britain-suffer-biggest-millionaires-exodus-globally-non-dom/
Labour are chasing away the rich 1%, who pay 30% of our entire tax take. The world has changed and people can work remotely
Labour are going to run out of money, they will have to tax more and more, driving away MORE rich people - meanwhile poor people keep arriving. We’re in a doom loop
Mr. Royale, yesterday I had a typo (thankfully caught) of 'tyre' instead of 'tower'. Was yours a weird auto-correct?
I'm mildly amused by the American 'defence'.
Yes, this deal's absolute shit for us, losing us sovereign territory, reigniting the Argentine desire for the Falklands, costing us money for the privilege of leaving, but the Americans like it so it must be good. Right?
I think that counts as a opinion rather than as fiction.
Mauritius will flog the fishing rights to all comers. A token amount of money will find its way to the islanders. Who will probably not get to return to the islands, because of… reasons.
Think of it as the peasants overthrowing the evil baron and allocating to themselves three fiefs of land from his estate.
https://x.com/uk_together/status/506899714923843584?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1z66vstPc0ZRXDAVxUBwoi6sAia4DnXKRESta32k85dM/edit?gid=1325150590#gid=1325150590
Until it starts closing hospitals.
MEMO TO LABOUR: those rich fuckers you hate? They pay for the NHS.
And if false recall is the issue, why do polls overstate Labour far more often than the Conservatives, as opposed to getting things wrong randomly? Do one party's supporters have much worse memories than those of the other? As the Conservatives are older, maybe you'd think their supporters are more likely to forget how they voted, but then why was the general anti-Tory bias also prevalent when the age differential in voting was not so pronounced? And why is anti-Right wing bias also observable in other, though not all, democracies, where the age gap is also less pronounced if it exists?
False recall could be caused by people not wanting to admit to themselves or the pollster how they voted last time, rather than genuinely forgetting, just as the membership of the French Resistance grew exponentially after Liberation. In which case it is likely to be a function of current party popularity, rather than the time since the last election.
No answers here, only questions.
There was a report in the Guardian yesterday about the dire state of the UK and London art market. They tried to blame it on Brexit, or the Tory-something-something, but they studiously ignored the obvious reason
Rich people are fleeing Labour Britain. Rich people buy art
https://archive.ph/PmDx8
I'm not sure how much of this is credible, given the Telegraph - although it's perhaps not what you would expect them to say entirely. Are they Biden-bashing? The USA certainly has quite the record of making others make big long term sacrifices in order to get the USA smaller short-term benefits.
In my book the ICJ ruling does not have much to back it up.
The Marine Protected Area is toast, but that MPA feels like the "quick, create a body that looks like a Parliament" done just before Hong-Kong was returned.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/rooney-deliberately-understated-legal-costs-in-wagatha-battle-court-told/ar-AA1rQ62E?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=61a8ec43e748416da5a8b76031514345&ei=29
Israel alone cannot defeat Iran. They would love nothing more than the get the USA and useful idiots like the USA to do their bidding.
Personally, I'm wary of unspotted leopards smelling strongly of paint. And that's basically what they are.
If it's not fictional polls it's holiday snaps, if it's not holiday snaps it's that dreary, but detailed story about a forty year old fling with a minor celebrity in a French churchyard. Surely we've all at some stage in our lives been intimate with minor celebrities. Mine was a one night stand with a Welsh TV newsreader in the mid 1980s, but you are already bored so I'll stop ...
What's left in broken britain for people other than to be pay pigs for unproductive spongers and boat people? If you're in your 20s, bright, ambitious, you can stay in broken britain and be taxed to the eyeballs while being unable to ever save money to get on the property ladder (and be cheated at every turn if you finally do), or you can bugger off to Dubai, pay 0% tax and like as not avoid the graduate tax aka student loan while you're at it.
It's not just the millionaires we'll lose over the next five years. It's the young and ambitious who can make more and pay less tax elsewhere.
It is a repeating scare story. People have homes, communities, children to think of. Only once you get into huge amounts of money, probably without children do you float your residence.
People emigrate and often driven by a better job, but if you have already made it you don't move because of tax, you move for a new adventure, sun, retire, new job, etc.
"Travellers in the Third Reich: The Rise of Fascism Through the Eyes of Everyday People" by Julia Boyd
It’s a brilliant piece of history. As the famous, semi famous and entirely ordinary look at Germany from 1922-1940. You get a much better idea of what it was like to be in Germany in those years, and how and why Hitler succeeded. And how it could easily happen again, here and now
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Travellers-Third-Reich-Fascism-Everyday/dp/1783963816?dplnkId=30f9fe5b-dc95-40a1-8f3c-12cce61cb50c&nodl=1
Implied National Vote Shares based on Average PNV defended - average vote share change.
Data points where the party was involved in both the prior election and the by-election:
Con 29.7 (+1.9 on prior average PNV)
Labour 26.0 (-8.8)
LD 21.1 (+1.8)
In Scotland
SNP 22.0 (-12.1)
Parties with no PNV score:
Green, average +3.3 (16 BEs)
Reform, +7.8 on a single data point in Stockton (they stood in more, but had not stood in the previous elections anywhere else
)
Discussion:
- Clearly not a GE VI and more relevant to next May
- Vast majority of BE are baselined to 2022, 2023 when Labour had an average 7 point lead.
- May 25 round will be against 2021 priors, with a 7 point Con lead, and above numbers would indicate Con losses to LD and Labour steady and perhaps advancing slightly.
- Labour are also defending a lot of seats vacated by their new MPs, so may be suffering a touch of proportional swing defending a high prior vote share.
- Reform standing in more seats and continued Ind involvement give some idea of
how Reform might hit others, even if we can't directly measure how much Reform are advancing because of no priors.
The further we get away from an election the more false recall becomes an issue, even for online pollsters.
This is based on conversation I’ve had with pollsters.