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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What makes Jim Murphy so dangerous to the SNP is that for t

SystemSystem Posts: 12,556
edited December 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What makes Jim Murphy so dangerous to the SNP is that for the first time in years LAB has a credible alternative First Minister

It is worth recapping why we are where we are in Scotland. Back in early 2011 it looked as though Scottish LAB was in a position to make a return to power in Holyrood ahead of the Scottish Parliament elections that May.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    This page has been up for 20 mins or so, and I'm still FIRST!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    The idea that Labour would lose 95% of their seats in Scotland was always a bit OTT.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited December 2014
    How much does the leader matter in these situations. What would happen in England if the Greens or UKIP were to get lucky and land a Bill Clinton class orator with wall-to-wall charisma. Would their party soar in the polls, or would the less able members of their parties (or their "friends" and backers) jealous of their abilities, continuously leak about any skeletons in their closet and try to spoil the effect (cf. Johann Lamont, Unite etc)
  • chamindachaminda Posts: 4
    This business of anti-SNP tactical voting. I always take large-scale tactical voting to be a thing of habit, initially sparked by very strong sentiment (eg hatred of the unpopular Major govt driving Labour supporters to vote LD in 97). I'm not sure what the equivalent in Scotland is that will see tactical voting against the SNP right now. Had Salmond and Sturgeon been talking up a second indyref as a post-election bargaining chip, maybe - but they're not.

    So why would Scottish Tory voters (with the LDs draining support in Scotland) switch their support to Labour to keep out the SNP? After all, the more SNP MPs there are, the likelier it is - in theory - that David Cameron can stay on as PM. Is that a nightmare scenario for Tories? Really?

    Murphy's better bet is surely to use that line instead - persuade ex-Labour voters that an SNP surge increases the chance of a continuing Tory government by leaving the Conservatives with more MPs than Labour UK-wide.
  • chamindachaminda Posts: 4
    There seems, in general, to have been a misunderstanding about Scottish swing voters. A typical Scottish swing voter right now is not Essex Man. A typical Scottish swing voter is a former Labour supporter who is drifting to the SNP due to one or more of the following reasons: a) support for independence; b) alienation from Westminster politics; c) desire for a break with "Blairism" in favour of more left-wing policies.

    Given all that, I'm at a loss to why they would be won back by a Westminster Blairite who was the face of the anti-independence campaign.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited December 2014
    Possibly d) because they are tired of incompetence and corruption in SLAB and like the air of competence and getting things done from the SNP. Murphy might have some room for manoeuvre on this one if he can make some inroads into cleaning out the Augean stables, especially if he can portray the SNP as being obsessed with constitutional issues whilst letting the bread and butter issues of everyday government slide.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,339
    edited December 2014
    If Murphy were in Holyrood, it might be more salient. But being only in Westminster points to which leader you will actually be voting for - not Murphy, but Miliband.

    If you are ex-Labour in Scotland, you are already at the Deadward stage.....
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,339
    Off topic, I watched The Theory of Everything last night. Eddie Redmayne is quite brilliant as Stephen Hawking. Award nominations beckon I'd say...and I'm not usually a fan of his. Comes out on January 1st - well worth catching.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,871
    I've taken Labour to get a majority at 5/1 so from a betting point of view I hope you're right. That said I'd settle for Labour to get the most seats and to be propped up by the SNP.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,921
    I see the sovereign wealth fund;s going well

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/minister-in-plea-to-save-north-sea-oil-jobs-1-3637225
  • Hertsmere_PubgoerHertsmere_Pubgoer Posts: 3,476
    Will OGH rue the day? :-)
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    I wonder how much this view of Murphy accurately reflects the Scottish perspective. It really is another country in so many ways despite the referendum result. A rejection of Scottish Labour remains entirely possible, even probable. It happened to Conservatives, will clearly affect the LDs in most of the country and I can see no real reason for Labour to be the exception, having elected a Blairite leader.
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    FWIW I think Scotland's independence is going to rattle on and on and on until it actually happens. Felix is right that in many ways Scotland is another country - and becoming ever more so. The only long term solution I can see that would potentially appease all players is a deeply federal UK, with England recognised (Tory cheers) but also huge powers devolved from Westmister to lower levels (Labour cheers).
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Tipping point!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,622
    @Patrick

    There are two options for Scotland : 1, it becomes increasingly bitter, and there's a referendum every decade, until the "right" result is reached, or 2, like in Quebec or the Basque country, the population gets an acceptable degree of independence and the issue fizzles somewhat

    There are more examples of the latter than the former.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited December 2014
    rcs1000 said:

    @Patrick

    There are two options for Scotland : 1, it becomes increasingly bitter, and there's a referendum every decade, until the "right" result is reached, or 2, like in Quebec or the Basque country, the population gets an acceptable degree of independence and the issue fizzles somewhat

    There are more examples of the latter than the former.

    I assume 2) is what the Smith Commission is aimed at in reality, I know our resident Nats hate it, presumably because if 5-10% of Scots think its enough, if not to like the solution then at least to stop banging on about it, there is practically no chance of getting a referendum passed and getting the "right" solution.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,742
    For the SNP to jump from 6 to 20 MPs would be a considerable achievement. There are a few easy pickings from the Scottish Lib Dems but after that wins require major swings in conventionally safe Labour seats. Typically Salmond, of course, is going for one of the former. So far I am with Mike.

    What I am not so sure about is the relevance of Labour having a credible FM candidate in 2015. We are not electing a FM then. We are electing a PM for the country and somewhat unfortunately for Labour Murphy is not their candidate for that job.

    Can Murphy galvanise the Unionist vote in Scotland? Maybe in some constituencies such as his own but in many Labour fiefdoms that is not going to be the important question. The question will be can he win back ex Labour supporters who voted yes and that is something he will find tougher.

    In 2010 the SNP did not campaign particularly vigorously for Westminster. Their eyes and resources were very much on the prize of maintaining their minority government in Holyrood and 2011 completely vindicated those tactics forcing the referendum upon us. In 2015 the SNP still seem to have plenty of resources and a huge new membership base desperate to do something. I think they will try a lot harder as they try to keep the yes coalition together for 2016.

    This under or over market looks pretty well balanced to me with no particularly obvious value on one side or the other.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2878312/80-000-UK-students-told-t-train-nurse-Thousands-t-courses-despite-four-five-new-NHS-workers-foreign.html

    Much the same for medical training, I suspect.

    Much as our Portuguese nurses are excellent, as are our Greek doctors, we do seem dependent on skilled immigration. A joined up government would increase local training.

  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    rcs1000 said:

    @Patrick

    There are two options for Scotland : 1, it becomes increasingly bitter, and there's a referendum every decade, until the "right" result is reached, or 2, like in Quebec or the Basque country, the population gets an acceptable degree of independence and the issue fizzles somewhat

    There are more examples of the latter than the former.

    Fully agree. But achieving this also implies and necessitates an acceptable accommodation for England. Dan Hodges was right in his blog the other day that England will not forever put up with the whiney, self interesteded, money grabbing and over-representation of Scotland. Give them Devomax and effective home rule. And the same to England. Then we can all shut up and live happily together in a federal UK.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited December 2014
    foxinsoxuk said:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2878312/80-000-UK-students-told-t-train-nurse-Thousands-t-courses-despite-four-five-new-NHS-workers-foreign.html

    Much the same for medical training, I suspect.

    Much as our Portuguese nurses are excellent, as are our Greek doctors, we do seem dependent on skilled immigration. A joined up government would increase local training.

    Isn't a large part of the problem that we hang on to so few of the (especially) doctors we train because they get better offers elsewhere (notably Australia) ? I would think a combination of making it more attractive to train (for example by waiving student loans of qualified doctors up to a certain value) and at the same time tying them in for a period of service with a training bond, maybe 5 years, would be a relatively straightforward carrot and stick approach.

    More generally we should think in terms of making student loans immediately due on people leaving the country, we shouldn't be in the game of providing finance at the national expense for people to use the skill elsewhere. People wishing to emigrate would have to take over the student loan on usual commercial terms.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    Patrick said:

    rcs1000 said:

    @Patrick

    There are two options for Scotland : 1, it becomes increasingly bitter, and there's a referendum every decade, until the "right" result is reached, or 2, like in Quebec or the Basque country, the population gets an acceptable degree of independence and the issue fizzles somewhat

    There are more examples of the latter than the former.

    Fully agree. But achieving this also implies and necessitates an acceptable accommodation for England. Dan Hodges was right in his blog the other day that England will not forever put up with the whiney, self interesteded, money grabbing and over-representation of Scotland. Give them Devomax and effective home rule. And the same to England. Then we can all shut up and live happily together in a federal UK.
    Yup, that's the way it has to be, plus all of us living fairly within our means of course.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,742
    I should add that just like the SNP did in 2010 Scottish Labour should be seriously focussed on the main Scottish prize of 2016 which is much more important to their strength going forward than sending a lump of MPs who may well find themselves not able to vote on most matters before the HoC.

    That should be Murphy's priority too and that means he needs to get himself into Holyrood soonest. There have been rumours of a job swap for him in 2015 with a by election for Holyrood on the same day as the GE. It would be a high risk strategy because he would have to resign the leadership if he lost but that should be his priority in 2015.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,622
    Indigo said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2878312/80-000-UK-students-told-t-train-nurse-Thousands-t-courses-despite-four-five-new-NHS-workers-foreign.html

    Much the same for medical training, I suspect.

    Much as our Portuguese nurses are excellent, as are our Greek doctors, we do seem dependent on skilled immigration. A joined up government would increase local training.

    Isn't a large part of the problem that we hang on to so few of the (especially) doctors we train because they get better offers elsewhere (notably Australia) ? I would think a combination of making it more attractive to train (for example by waiving student loans of qualified doctors up to a certain value) and at the same time tying them in for a period of service with a training bond, maybe 5 years, would be a relatively straightforward carrot and stick approach.
    Amusingly, an Australian doctor friend of mine is moving to Athens, as the cost of living in Sydney makes being a doctor an ill paid profession.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Indigo said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2878312/80-000-UK-students-told-t-train-nurse-Thousands-t-courses-despite-four-five-new-NHS-workers-foreign.html

    Much the same for medical training, I suspect.

    Much as our Portuguese nurses are excellent, as are our Greek doctors, we do seem dependent on skilled immigration. A joined up government would increase local training.

    Isn't a large part of the problem that we hang on to so few of the (especially) doctors we train because they get better offers elsewhere (notably Australia) ?
    We are a substantial net importer of doctors. I would advocate a full (or at least partial) fee amnesty for UK graduates who have 5 years NHS service.

    Mostly UK doctors going to Australia stay a year before returning, and work in remote areas or shortage specialities. It is very difficult to get into postgraduate training in Australia in popular specialities. Psychiatry or Emergency Medicine, but not surgical training.
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    edited December 2014
    peter_from_putney said:

    Patrick said:

    rcs1000 said:

    @Patrick

    There are two options for Scotland : 1, it becomes increasingly bitter, and there's a referendum every decade, until the "right" result is reached, or 2, like in Quebec or the Basque country, the population gets an acceptable degree of independence and the issue fizzles somewhat

    There are more examples of the latter than the former.

    Fully agree. But achieving this also implies and necessitates an acceptable accommodation for England. Dan Hodges was right in his blog the other day that England will not forever put up with the whiney, self interesteded, money grabbing and over-representation of Scotland. Give them Devomax and effective home rule. And the same to England. Then we can all shut up and live happily together in a federal UK.
    Yup, that's the way it has to be, plus all of us living fairly within our means of course.
    That may be the real issue. Scotland gets 15-20% more spending per capita than England. 25% more than the lower spend English regions (I seem to remember Humberside was particularly low). If this is the price of Scotland's quiescence then it is not sustainable. Barnett and gross discrepancies will have to be flattened out if the problem is ever really to go away. The rank unfairness of e.g. English students not getting free university in Scotland while other EU citizens do, even as this is paid for by English taxpayers, is a recipe for future ructions. Personally I'm far from convinced that true 'equality' is what the Scottish electorate wants. They seem to want a lefty utopia paid for by England.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,742
    foxinsoxuk said:

    Indigo said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2878312/80-000-UK-students-told-t-train-nurse-Thousands-t-courses-despite-four-five-new-NHS-workers-foreign.html

    Much the same for medical training, I suspect.

    Much as our Portuguese nurses are excellent, as are our Greek doctors, we do seem dependent on skilled immigration. A joined up government would increase local training.

    Isn't a large part of the problem that we hang on to so few of the (especially) doctors we train because they get better offers elsewhere (notably Australia) ?
    We are a substantial net importer of doctors. I would advocate a full (or at least partial) fee amnesty for UK graduates who have 5 years NHS service.

    Mostly UK doctors going to Australia stay a year before returning, and work in remote areas or shortage specialities. It is very difficult to get into postgraduate training in Australia in popular specialities. Psychiatry or Emergency Medicine, but not surgical training.
    Waiver of outstanding fees in exchange for 5 years NHS service seems an excellent idea. At the moment the debts medics incur during their lengthy training positively incentivises them to look for work abroad which is daft.

    I also find myself in rare agreement with some of the points made in a DM column. The competition for places in nursing and midwifery has resulted in absurdly high academic entrance qualifications for a practical job that needs physical skills and compassion more than academic excellence.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,742
    rcs1000 said:

    Indigo said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2878312/80-000-UK-students-told-t-train-nurse-Thousands-t-courses-despite-four-five-new-NHS-workers-foreign.html

    Much the same for medical training, I suspect.

    Much as our Portuguese nurses are excellent, as are our Greek doctors, we do seem dependent on skilled immigration. A joined up government would increase local training.

    Isn't a large part of the problem that we hang on to so few of the (especially) doctors we train because they get better offers elsewhere (notably Australia) ? I would think a combination of making it more attractive to train (for example by waiving student loans of qualified doctors up to a certain value) and at the same time tying them in for a period of service with a training bond, maybe 5 years, would be a relatively straightforward carrot and stick approach.
    Amusingly, an Australian doctor friend of mine is moving to Athens, as the cost of living in Sydney makes being a doctor an ill paid profession.
    He is confident that they will still be able to pay his wages next year? Interesting.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    DavidL said:


    In 2010 the SNP did not campaign particularly vigorously for Westminster.

    That's a fairly generous interpretation of their campaign. It was rank awful - it appeared amateur and desperate making both themselves and Scotland look small and insignificant. It was a repeat of their 2005 campaign but worse.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Indigo said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2878312/80-000-UK-students-told-t-train-nurse-Thousands-t-courses-despite-four-five-new-NHS-workers-foreign.html

    Much the same for medical training, I suspect.

    Much as our Portuguese nurses are excellent, as are our Greek doctors, we do seem dependent on skilled immigration. A joined up government would increase local training.

    Isn't a large part of the problem that we hang on to so few of the (especially) doctors we train because they get better offers elsewhere (notably Australia) ? I would think a combination of making it more attractive to train (for example by waiving student loans of qualified doctors up to a certain value) and at the same time tying them in for a period of service with a training bond, maybe 5 years, would be a relatively straightforward carrot and stick approach.
    Amusingly, an Australian doctor friend of mine is moving to Athens, as the cost of living in Sydney makes being a doctor an ill paid profession.
    He is confident that they will still be able to pay his wages next year? Interesting.
    I think he has a reasonable chance of being paid in New Drachma.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,622
    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Indigo said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2878312/80-000-UK-students-told-t-train-nurse-Thousands-t-courses-despite-four-five-new-NHS-workers-foreign.html

    Much the same for medical training, I suspect.

    Much as our Portuguese nurses are excellent, as are our Greek doctors, we do seem dependent on skilled immigration. A joined up government would increase local training.

    Isn't a large part of the problem that we hang on to so few of the (especially) doctors we train because they get better offers elsewhere (notably Australia) ? I would think a combination of making it more attractive to train (for example by waiving student loans of qualified doctors up to a certain value) and at the same time tying them in for a period of service with a training bond, maybe 5 years, would be a relatively straightforward carrot and stick approach.
    Amusingly, an Australian doctor friend of mine is moving to Athens, as the cost of living in Sydney makes being a doctor an ill paid profession.
    He is confident that they will still be able to pay his wages next year? Interesting.
    I don't think he's thought that far ahead. He thinks it's a great adventure, and he'll be able to live like a (relative) king in Athens.

    If Greece does fall apart in 2015, he'll still own his flat in Sydney, so don't feel too sorry for him.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,742
    Alistair said:

    DavidL said:


    In 2010 the SNP did not campaign particularly vigorously for Westminster.

    That's a fairly generous interpretation of their campaign. It was rank awful - it appeared amateur and desperate making both themselves and Scotland look small and insignificant. It was a repeat of their 2005 campaign but worse.
    I am a generous chap but I would not disagree with your assessment. I don't think the tens of thousands of new members will tolerate a repeat in 2015 and Nicola will not want a disappointment first time out as leader either.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,622
    Indigo said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Indigo said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2878312/80-000-UK-students-told-t-train-nurse-Thousands-t-courses-despite-four-five-new-NHS-workers-foreign.html

    Much the same for medical training, I suspect.

    Much as our Portuguese nurses are excellent, as are our Greek doctors, we do seem dependent on skilled immigration. A joined up government would increase local training.

    Isn't a large part of the problem that we hang on to so few of the (especially) doctors we train because they get better offers elsewhere (notably Australia) ? I would think a combination of making it more attractive to train (for example by waiving student loans of qualified doctors up to a certain value) and at the same time tying them in for a period of service with a training bond, maybe 5 years, would be a relatively straightforward carrot and stick approach.
    Amusingly, an Australian doctor friend of mine is moving to Athens, as the cost of living in Sydney makes being a doctor an ill paid profession.
    He is confident that they will still be able to pay his wages next year? Interesting.
    I think he has a reasonable chance of being paid in New Drachma.
    Remember that if Greece leaves the Euro, it will not be able to service its foreign debts. The economy may end up resembling that of Argentina or Venezuela.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,742
    rcs1000 said:

    Indigo said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Indigo said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2878312/80-000-UK-students-told-t-train-nurse-Thousands-t-courses-despite-four-five-new-NHS-workers-foreign.html

    Much the same for medical training, I suspect.

    Much as our Portuguese nurses are excellent, as are our Greek doctors, we do seem dependent on skilled immigration. A joined up government would increase local training.

    Isn't a large part of the problem that we hang on to so few of the (especially) doctors we train because they get better offers elsewhere (notably Australia) ? I would think a combination of making it more attractive to train (for example by waiving student loans of qualified doctors up to a certain value) and at the same time tying them in for a period of service with a training bond, maybe 5 years, would be a relatively straightforward carrot and stick approach.
    Amusingly, an Australian doctor friend of mine is moving to Athens, as the cost of living in Sydney makes being a doctor an ill paid profession.
    He is confident that they will still be able to pay his wages next year? Interesting.
    I think he has a reasonable chance of being paid in New Drachma.
    Remember that if Greece leaves the Euro, it will not be able to service its foreign debts. The economy may end up resembling that of Argentina or Venezuela.
    Robert, if Greece remains within the Euro it won't be able to service its foreign debts either. Either way another default is coming.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,159
    Isn’t the number of medical and dental students in the UK capped by the Government? It’s an issue in pharmacy; there are “enough” given present employment opportunities; indeed probably more than enough. However, there’s, I think, another University opening a pharmacy department shoertly which will increase the supply even further. Plus there’s some evidence, although not recent, that some employers are actively recruiting in Eastern Europe because, “until the scales fall from their eyes” such pharmacists will work for less than British ones have traditionally received.
    Pharmacy asked for a similar cap to the medics, but it was refused.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,618
    Miliband's BFF may be a closet Outer.

    Exclusive: Francois Hollande will block Mr Cameron’s request for a change to the EU treaty to include a new settlement for Britain in Europe, The Telegraph has learnt.

    David Cameron’s bid to renegotiate Britain’s relationship with the European Union will be dealt a blow on Thursday when the French president tells the Prime Minister he is “obsessed with his own problems”.

    Francois Hollande will block Mr Cameron’s request for a change to the EU treaty to include a new settlement for Britain in Europe, The Telegraph has learnt.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/11300291/France-to-block-David-Camerons-treaty-change-plan.html
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,622
    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Indigo said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Indigo said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2878312/80-000-UK-students-told-t-train-nurse-Thousands-t-courses-despite-four-five-new-NHS-workers-foreign.html

    Much the same for medical training, I suspect.

    Much as our Portuguese nurses are excellent, as are our Greek doctors, we do seem dependent on skilled immigration. A joined up government would increase local training.

    Isn't a large part of the problem that we hang on to so few of the (especially) doctors we train because they get better offers elsewhere (notably Australia) ? I would think a combination of making it more attractive to train (for example by waiving student loans of qualified doctors up to a certain value) and at the same time tying them in for a period of service with a training bond, maybe 5 years, would be a relatively straightforward carrot and stick approach.
    Amusingly, an Australian doctor friend of mine is moving to Athens, as the cost of living in Sydney makes being a doctor an ill paid profession.
    He is confident that they will still be able to pay his wages next year? Interesting.
    I think he has a reasonable chance of being paid in New Drachma.
    Remember that if Greece leaves the Euro, it will not be able to service its foreign debts. The economy may end up resembling that of Argentina or Venezuela.
    Robert, if Greece remains within the Euro it won't be able to service its foreign debts either. Either way another default is coming.
    Actually, whatever happens we're likely to see "extend and pretend". The IMF, the EU, and the ECB will change the maturity of their existing loans (which is more than two thirds of Greek government debt) to 50 years, while simultaneously lowering the interest rate to (say) 1.5%. This will massively lower the burden on the Greek government and kick the can down the road for many, many years.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,159
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Miliband's BFF may be a closet Outer.

    Exclusive: Francois Hollande will block Mr Cameron’s request for a change to the EU treaty to include a new settlement for Britain in Europe, The Telegraph has learnt.

    David Cameron’s bid to renegotiate Britain’s relationship with the European Union will be dealt a blow on Thursday when the French president tells the Prime Minister he is “obsessed with his own problems”.

    Francois Hollande will block Mr Cameron’s request for a change to the EU treaty to include a new settlement for Britain in Europe, The Telegraph has learnt.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/11300291/France-to-block-David-Camerons-treaty-change-plan.html

    Vive de Gaulle. Or something like that!
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Alanbrooke said:

    I see the sovereign wealth fund;s going well

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/minister-in-plea-to-save-north-sea-oil-jobs-1-3637225

    e

    Scotland did not dodge a bullet in September, it chose to step out of the way of an out-of-control express train headed straight towards it:

    http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/business-30525539

    The lost direct tax revenues are only a part of the story. Throw in lost income tax and VAT receipts from increased unemployment and lower wages in the energy sector, higher social security spending, downgraded investment, the impossibility of securing a currency union except on the most draconian terms, higher borrowing costs and so on. And that's before you throw in the finance sector decamping down to the south. If Yes had won Scotland would have been looking at an economic and fiscal catastrophe. Not that the Nats would have cared - a new international border was their only concern.

    It was always clear that the SNP was fibbing for freedom, but the scale of the lies told was truly breathtaking - as is the current ploy of downplaying the importance of oil to Scotland's economy.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Dear me

    RT @Telegraph: Don't say 'Merry Christmas', it might offend someone, says Whitehall guidance ln.is/www.telegraph.…
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    Morning all and I see as per normal almost no-one is actually discussing the subject of the thread.

    Jim Murphy is clearly one of the most talented Labour politicians in Scotland. His problem is he may be more admired within the Scottish Tory Party than he is by the typical Labour voter.

    I really would be surprised if he wins back many of the 2010 Labour voters who voted YES in September. Those are the voters Labour needs to recover because they are in Glasgow, North Lanarkshire and Dunbartonshire which contain more than 1/3 of Labour's Scottish seats.

    There is only one party in Scotland which people identify as being thoroughly Unionist and that is the Scottish Tory Party. That is why we are the subject of hate by the Ultra Nats.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    OldKingCole said:

    Isn’t the number of medical and dental students in the UK capped by the Government? It’s an issue in pharmacy; there are “enough” given present employment opportunities; indeed probably more than enough. However, there’s, I think, another University opening a pharmacy department shoertly which will increase the supply even further. Plus there’s some evidence, although not recent, that some employers are actively recruiting in Eastern Europe because, “until the scales fall from their eyes” such pharmacists will work for less than British ones have traditionally received.
    Pharmacy asked for a similar cap to the medics, but it was refused.

    British doctors are well paid compared to international comparators; but also work longer hours and are much more likely to burn out and quit or retire early.

    Personally, I would abolish the cap on numbers training here, allow medical schools to expand and widen recruitment so that the market can find its level. There would also need to be an increase in the number of postgraduate training places.

    This is an example from my own field, but until these artificial restrictions are lifted we will need immigration. I am sure the same is true of many other fields, particularly in science and technological areas.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    OldKingCole said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Miliband's BFF may be a closet Outer.

    Exclusive: Francois Hollande will block Mr Cameron’s request for a change to the EU treaty to include a new settlement for Britain in Europe, The Telegraph has learnt.

    David Cameron’s bid to renegotiate Britain’s relationship with the European Union will be dealt a blow on Thursday when the French president tells the Prime Minister he is “obsessed with his own problems”.

    Francois Hollande will block Mr Cameron’s request for a change to the EU treaty to include a new settlement for Britain in Europe, The Telegraph has learnt.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/11300291/France-to-block-David-Camerons-treaty-change-plan.html

    Vive de Gaulle. Or something like that!
    It seems that President Hollande is calculating that the Prime Minister after the next election will be Ed Miliband, since that's the only way to make sense of his strategy. Since I'm making the same bet, I can hardly criticise him for it.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    On topic, I agree with DavidL and Easterross that Jim Murphy will steady the ship but he's not the man to appeal to the critical group of voters.

    The SNP might not win 54 seats in May next year, but I don't intend to start selling the SNP on Sporting Index just yet.

    Where I do agree with our host is that now is the time to be making a call on Scotland one way or another. It's high risk, but all the value will disappear from the market when the information comes through.

    I shall be putting a post up on this subject at the weekend (or just possibly Monday, depending on how the Christmas shopping goes).
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,714
    Merry Christmas, everyone.

    Miss Plato, some people seem to get off on being offended.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,618
    I'm keeping my powder dry until we see some Scottish constituency polling.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm keeping my powder dry until we see some Scottish constituency polling.

    All the value will go the moment that gets released. Now is the time for balls of steel.

    While I disagree with our host on how he's acted, now is the time to act.
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    I agree with some comments like that of David when he said the barrier for the SNP to cross in order to take lots of Labour seats is too high. I do however remember 2011 when the SNP took Holyrood seats which had been Labour (at Westminster) since WWII. It will be interesting whether having lots of sitting MSPs and councillors in these hitherto safe Labour seats will enable the SNP to snatch them in May. I frankly haven't a clue.

    It is also fantasy to think Scots Tory voters will tactically vote Labour to keep out the SNP. I for one will cheer every Labour seat the SNP wins as it will be another nail in the SLAB coffin. My aim is to see David Cameron remain in Westminster. I would frankly rather live in a Scotland run by the SNP than a UK run by Balls and Bland. I want to see a Scotland where if you support Independence you vote SNP and if you oppose Independence you vote Tory. Given a few years it may come about.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    antifrank said:

    On topic, I agree with DavidL and Easterross that Jim Murphy will steady the ship but he's not the man to appeal to the critical group of voters.

    The SNP might not win 54 seats in May next year, but I don't intend to start selling the SNP on Sporting Index just yet.

    Where I do agree with our host is that now is the time to be making a call on Scotland one way or another. It's high risk, but all the value will disappear from the market when the information comes through.

    I shall be putting a post up on this subject at the weekend (or just possibly Monday, depending on how the Christmas shopping goes).

    At present it does look like significant SNP gains, but with a strong and dynamic, even charismatic, leader who has set out his stall for a large degree of SLAB autonomy in the Labour Party it is "game on". The Scottish Tories also seem to be permitted a great deal of autonomy too.

    2010 was an unexpectedly good Westminster election for SLAB, perhaps the Brown influence, so was always going to be a hard one to defend.

    A lot depends on how Sturgeon goes down as FM. If she antagonises the electorate then we may see voters drifting in all sorts of interesting directions.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,714
    F1: Ferrari part ways with yet another senior chap:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/30524725

    "Ferrari are to part company with another senior figure after revealing tyre chief Hirohide Hamashima is to leave at the end of the year.
    It is the latest development in a quite remarkable series of events this season, and comes less than a day after the departure of two other managers.
    The team announced on Tuesday the exits of engineering director Pat Fry and chief designer Nikolas Tombazis.
    Their president, two team principals and engine boss have also left in 2014."
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,618
    antifrank said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm keeping my powder dry until we see some Scottish constituency polling.

    All the value will go the moment that gets released. Now is the time for balls of steel.

    While I disagree with our host on how he's acted, now is the time to act.
    I know, I know.

    But thanks to you, I think I've got enough constituency bets to make an SNP surge very profitable.

    If like you, I think Mike might be misunderestimating Jim Murphy's appeal, and I buy the SNP and they disappoint on the night, then I'll be like grrr.

    Sometimes the most profitable cause of action is not to bet (yet)

    As an aside, Scotland has been a very profitable area for me, recently in 2011 and then with the Indyref. I reckon distance lends perspective
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    Plato said:

    Dear me

    RT @Telegraph: Don't say 'Merry Christmas', it might offend someone, says Whitehall guidance ln.is/www.telegraph.…

    And a happy Winterval, Christ's Mass, Midwinter, Yule, Winter Solstice, Saturnalia, Sol Invictus, Winter Night Light Festival (or whatever you get up to in E Sussex) to you.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,214
    edited December 2014
    Easterross said:


    There is only one party in Scotland which people identify as being thoroughly Unionist and that is the Scottish Tory Party. That is why we are the subject of hate by the Ultra Nats.

    It's entertaining to see in their rush to relevance, the competition between the Unionist parties as to who is the most 'hated' by the SNP (who could forget 'Willie Rennie, the man the Nats fear'). It's broadly true that political parties hate those opponents who are the biggest threat to them; that ain't the SCons or, snigger, the SLDs.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,714
    Mr. Eagles, depends how far gone, as it were, converts to Yes/the SNP are.

    If a radio's switched off, even the most charming message in the world won't persuade the chap sitting next to it. In the same way I find it very hard to see myself voting for Ed Balls, the converts north of the border may well be full of the zeal of the converted and anger at having failed in the referendum.

    Murphy does seem capable, but he's also a Westminster MP made head of a Scottish party when the outgoing leader accused Westminster of treating it like a branch office.

    It also depends how voters in Scotland view the forthcoming General Election. Is their priority:
    1) hit the evil Tories?
    2) maximise Scottish devolution?

    1) can be achieved by voting SNP or Labour. 2) can be achieved by voting SNP.

    What's the draw for Labour? Miliband's less popular than Cameron (and sometimes even Clegg) north of the border. If independence is the burning desire for 'the 45', then why would they return to a unionist party?
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    Incidentally Michael Ashcroft tweeted on Tuesday that he will be releasing his latest constituency polling this week. That means either today or tomorrow.

    I wonder if there will be any Scottish seats among them. Surely Gordon must be high on his list of "to do" seats.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,618
    @LordAshcroft

    I shall be releasing details of more marginal seats polling at 11am. Has the marginal battleground been found. Will tactical voting prevail?
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    LOL Yule too!
    Financier said:

    Plato said:

    Dear me

    RT @Telegraph: Don't say 'Merry Christmas', it might offend someone, says Whitehall guidance ln.is/www.telegraph.…

    And a happy Winterval, Christ's Mass, Midwinter, Yule, Winter Solstice, Saturnalia, Sol Invictus, Winter Night Light Festival (or whatever you get up to in E Sussex) to you.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,714
    Miss Plato, I hope that department gets picketed by angry Santas.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Financier said:

    Plato said:

    Dear me

    RT @Telegraph: Don't say 'Merry Christmas', it might offend someone, says Whitehall guidance ln.is/www.telegraph.…

    And a happy Winterval, Christ's Mass, Midwinter, Yule, Winter Solstice, Saturnalia, Sol Invictus, Winter Night Light Festival (or whatever you get up to in E Sussex) to you.
    Kippers wanting to avoid apoplexy over breakfast may want to skip this link:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2876170/Brighton-Sussex-University-Hospitals-NHS-trust-sends-bizarre-list-guidelines-staff-make-sure-Christmas-party-politically-correct.html

    I remember when hospital Christmas parties were deliciously debauched, drunken, bawdy and on premises!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,742
    Easterross said:

    I agree with some comments like that of David when he said the barrier for the SNP to cross in order to take lots of Labour seats is too high. I do however remember 2011 when the SNP took Holyrood seats which had been Labour (at Westminster) since WWII. It will be interesting whether having lots of sitting MSPs and councillors in these hitherto safe Labour seats will enable the SNP to snatch them in May. I frankly haven't a clue.

    It is also fantasy to think Scots Tory voters will tactically vote Labour to keep out the SNP. I for one will cheer every Labour seat the SNP wins as it will be another nail in the SLAB coffin. My aim is to see David Cameron remain in Westminster. I would frankly rather live in a Scotland run by the SNP than a UK run by Balls and Bland. I want to see a Scotland where if you support Independence you vote SNP and if you oppose Independence you vote Tory. Given a few years it may come about.

    You were always a bit more relaxed about the possibilities of independence than I was Easterross. I have concluded that I am a Unionist above all and, to take your example, would rather live in a UK run by Ed and Ed than an independent Scotland. The UK has survived worse, Brown for example.

    So this is one Scottish tory who will vote Labour in Dundee West to try and keep out the SNP. I shall do a penance by canvassing for Tories in Angus and North Perthshire, against the SNP of course. I have no doubts at all who my ultimate enemy is.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,709
    OldKingCole said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:



    Francois Hollande will block Mr Cameron’s request for a change to the EU treaty to include a new settlement for Britain in Europe, The Telegraph has learnt.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/11300291/France-to-block-David-Camerons-treaty-change-plan.html

    Vive de Gaulle. Or something like that!
    As the article says, "Britain’s political prestige in Europe is lower than I have ever known it,” said one senior EU diplomat with 30 years experience in European diplomacy.

    “It has not been helped by recent British behaviour over the EU budget, which was widely regarded as childish"

    Britain's policy in Europe has not been serious for some time - it's been driven entirely by the wish to stay members while pacifying Eurosceptics.

    On topic, the YouGov subsamples in Scotland (yes, I know...) aren't showing any special impact either way of Murphy's arrival. He's a clever, heavyweight politician (though not an emotional crowd-puller like Gordon at his best) but it will need some set-piece wins, such as Scottish-only TV debates where he is seen to beat Sturgeon.



  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    Robin Allan, chairman of the independent explorers' association Brindex, told the BBC that the industry was "close to collapse".

    Almost no new projects in the North Sea are profitable with oil below $60 a barrel, he claims.

    "This has happened before, and the industry adapts, but the adaptation is one of slashing people, slashing projects and reducing costs wherever possible, and that's painful for our staff, painful for companies and painful for the country.

    "It's close to collapse. In terms of new investments - there will be none, everyone is retreating, people are being laid off at most companies this week and in the coming weeks. Budgets for 2015 are being cut by everyone."

    Mr Allan said many of the job cuts across the industry would not have been publicly announced. Oil workers are often employed as contractors, which are easier for employers to cut.

    His remarks echo comments made by the veteran oil man and government adviser Sir Ian Wood, who last week predicted a wave of job losses in the North Sea over the next 18 months.

    The US-based oil giant ConocoPhillips is cutting 230 out of 1,650 jobs in the UK.

    This month it announced a 20% reduction in its worldwide capital expenditure budget, in response to falling oil prices.

    Other big oil firms are expected to make similar cuts to their drilling and exploration budgets. Research from the investment bank Goldman Sachs predicted that they would need to cut capital expenditure by 30% to restore their profitability at current prices.

    Service providers to the industry have also been hit. Texas-based oilfield services company Schlumberger cut back its UK-based fleet of geological survey ships in December, taking an $800m loss and cutting an unspecified number of jobs.

    Aberdeen-based Wood Group announced a pay freeze for staff, and cut rates for its contractors.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-30525539

    Unless there is an unlikely significant increase in the oil price in the New Year, then there will sharp cutbacks in Scotland which will certainly have an effect on the Scottish economy and SNP projections and also could well affect the GE.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,339
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Merry Christmas, everyone.

    Miss Plato, some people seem to get off on being offended.

    And to all our friends on the Left - Happy Honecker......
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,339
    DavidL said:

    Easterross said:

    I agree with some comments like that of David when he said the barrier for the SNP to cross in order to take lots of Labour seats is too high. I do however remember 2011 when the SNP took Holyrood seats which had been Labour (at Westminster) since WWII. It will be interesting whether having lots of sitting MSPs and councillors in these hitherto safe Labour seats will enable the SNP to snatch them in May. I frankly haven't a clue.

    It is also fantasy to think Scots Tory voters will tactically vote Labour to keep out the SNP. I for one will cheer every Labour seat the SNP wins as it will be another nail in the SLAB coffin. My aim is to see David Cameron remain in Westminster. I would frankly rather live in a Scotland run by the SNP than a UK run by Balls and Bland. I want to see a Scotland where if you support Independence you vote SNP and if you oppose Independence you vote Tory. Given a few years it may come about.

    You were always a bit more relaxed about the possibilities of independence than I was Easterross. I have concluded that I am a Unionist above all and, to take your example, would rather live in a UK run by Ed and Ed than an independent Scotland. The UK has survived worse, Brown for example.

    So this is one Scottish tory who will vote Labour in Dundee West to try and keep out the SNP. I shall do a penance by canvassing for Tories in Angus and North Perthshire, against the SNP of course. I have no doubts at all who my ultimate enemy is.
    What a wretched dilemma, when Ed as PM is the least worst option.

    Can't you move house?

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,742
    Financier said:

    Robin Allan, chairman of the independent explorers' association Brindex, told the BBC that the industry was "close to collapse".

    Almost no new projects in the North Sea are profitable with oil below $60 a barrel, he claims.

    "This has happened before, and the industry adapts, but the adaptation is one of slashing people, slashing projects and reducing costs wherever possible, and that's painful for our staff, painful for companies and painful for the country.

    "It's close to collapse. In terms of new investments - there will be none, everyone is retreating, people are being laid off at most companies this week and in the coming weeks. Budgets for 2015 are being cut by everyone."

    Mr Allan said many of the job cuts across the industry would not have been publicly announced. Oil workers are often employed as contractors, which are easier for employers to cut.

    His remarks echo comments made by the veteran oil man and government adviser Sir Ian Wood, who last week predicted a wave of job losses in the North Sea over the next 18 months.

    The US-based oil giant ConocoPhillips is cutting 230 out of 1,650 jobs in the UK.

    This month it announced a 20% reduction in its worldwide capital expenditure budget, in response to falling oil prices.

    Other big oil firms are expected to make similar cuts to their drilling and exploration budgets. Research from the investment bank Goldman Sachs predicted that they would need to cut capital expenditure by 30% to restore their profitability at current prices.

    Service providers to the industry have also been hit. Texas-based oilfield services company Schlumberger cut back its UK-based fleet of geological survey ships in December, taking an $800m loss and cutting an unspecified number of jobs.

    Aberdeen-based Wood Group announced a pay freeze for staff, and cut rates for its contractors.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-30525539

    Unless there is an unlikely significant increase in the oil price in the New Year, then there will sharp cutbacks in Scotland which will certainly have an effect on the Scottish economy and SNP projections and also could well affect the GE.

    Aberdeen has always been a rollercoaster town switching between boom and bust but they are coming over the crest of one of the biggest dips in recent times. The scale of this will impact on the UK where a significant part of the anticipated growth in private sector capital investment was north sea related and now simply will not happen.

    After the loss of our traditional industries such as ship building the north sea gave a huge number of opportunities for guys with limited education but a willingness to work bloody hard to earn really good money, money which bled into the shopping centres and housing markets of Scotland and beyond. We will all feel the draught of this. It will take the gloss off any increase in real wages for a start.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    The German government has approved plans for a controversial road toll which will include charging foreigners for using the famous Autobahn network.

    The toll badge will cost up to €130 (£103; $162) a year, depending on a car's age, engine size and emissions.

    German motorists will pay tolls for local roads as well as the Autobahn motorways. But that will be offset by a cut in their motor vehicle tax.

    The European Commission has warned that the new toll may be discriminatory.

    A letter from EU Transport Commissioner Violeta Bulc, quoted by German media, says the offset scheme for German drivers - to spare them additional road costs - may discriminate against foreigners, thereby violating EU law.

    The toll - known in German as "Pkw-Maut" - is not yet law. The plan is to introduce it in 2016.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-30516530

    And what will the EU do to its largest financial contributor - nothing.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,472
    Indigo said:

    rcs1000 said:

    @Patrick

    There are two options for Scotland : 1, it becomes increasingly bitter, and there's a referendum every decade, until the "right" result is reached, or 2, like in Quebec or the Basque country, the population gets an acceptable degree of independence and the issue fizzles somewhat

    There are more examples of the latter than the former.

    I assume 2) is what the Smith Commission is aimed at in reality, I know our resident Nats hate it, presumably because if 5-10% of Scots think its enough, if not to like the solution then at least to stop banging on about it, there is practically no chance of getting a referendum passed and getting the "right" solution.
    transfer of road signs is not likely to be sufficient
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,742
    MarqueeMark said:

    DavidL said:

    Easterross said:

    I agree with some comments like that of David when he said the barrier for the SNP to cross in order to take lots of Labour seats is too high. I do however remember 2011 when the SNP took Holyrood seats which had been Labour (at Westminster) since WWII. It will be interesting whether having lots of sitting MSPs and councillors in these hitherto safe Labour seats will enable the SNP to snatch them in May. I frankly haven't a clue.

    It is also fantasy to think Scots Tory voters will tactically vote Labour to keep out the SNP. I for one will cheer every Labour seat the SNP wins as it will be another nail in the SLAB coffin. My aim is to see David Cameron remain in Westminster. I would frankly rather live in a Scotland run by the SNP than a UK run by Balls and Bland. I want to see a Scotland where if you support Independence you vote SNP and if you oppose Independence you vote Tory. Given a few years it may come about.

    You were always a bit more relaxed about the possibilities of independence than I was Easterross. I have concluded that I am a Unionist above all and, to take your example, would rather live in a UK run by Ed and Ed than an independent Scotland. The UK has survived worse, Brown for example.

    So this is one Scottish tory who will vote Labour in Dundee West to try and keep out the SNP. I shall do a penance by canvassing for Tories in Angus and North Perthshire, against the SNP of course. I have no doubts at all who my ultimate enemy is.
    What a wretched dilemma, when Ed as PM is the least worst option.

    Can't you move house?

    I'll think on it.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    A bill that hands tax-raising powers to the Welsh government has received Royal Assent.

    The Wales Act 2014 means a referendum could be held to give Welsh ministers the power to vary income tax.

    The Welsh government, now its official name, is also getting control of stamp duty, land tax and landfill tax, and can now borrow up to £1bn.

    First Minister Carwyn Jones said it "marks the next step on our devolution journey".

    The changes mean the Welsh government is now accountable for raising some of the money it spends.

    Power over landfill taxes, stamp duty and the aggregates levy will pass to Cardiff Bay in 2018.

    However, devolution of income tax powers will be subject to a referendum.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-30520738

    And having campaigned for more control of their income, the prospect scares the Welsh government almost out of their wits - that is if they ever had any in the first place.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,714
    Mr. Financier, the more power is handed over to Wales and Scotland, the more unanswerable the desire for an English Parliament becomes (English votes for English laws acceptable in the interim) .

    I don't think it'll, sadly, be a major election issue. But after 2015 when Scottish MPs are voting on English income tax, it may well be.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    I'm not sure Murphy will make much of a difference, especially with the C2DE voters in places like Inverclyde. Who knows though? Does a Scottish labour leader even matter much in a westminster election?

    When the market opened, I bought SNP seats @ 20.5 for as much as SPIN would allow. I'm happy enough with that position for now.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,386
    Ms Plato,

    "Don't say 'Merry Christmas', it might offend someone, says Whitehall guidance ln.is/www.telegraph."

    Who would be offended? A Muslim colleague of mine could never understand this "offence" thing. Christ is a prophet in Islam and they are not offended by it. No other religions would worry, so that leaves atheists.

    Do any atheists on here jump on the 'offence' bus? I doubt it
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,714
    Mr. CD13, can only speak for myself, but anyone outraged or offended at being wished Merry Christmas is a moron. If nothing else, it's a wider cultural/shopping event as well as a religious one. Besides, whilst it'd surprise me, if a Muslim wished me Happy Eid I'd not be offended in the slightest.

    A few militant atheists might wet themselves in horror, but a world which is utterly inoffensive to every single desperately outraged person would be a bloody tedious place for everyone else to live.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Retail Sales up 6.4% year on year (quantity) and 4.3% (value).
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    It's a cost of living CRISIS!!!!!

    @ONS: Food store prices saw their largest fall since June 2002, dropping 1% in Nov 2014 http://t.co/bPUg8HpMGK

    @ONS: Retail Sales increased 6.4% year on year in November 14. Biggest rise in a decade http://t.co/UNpyW65tSS
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,714
    edited December 2014
    EU court - obesity is a disability:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-30529791

    So... if I managed to eat enough to become obese [which seems unlikely], could I claim disability benefits?

    "The court said that if obesity could hinder "full and effective participation" at work then it could count as a disability."

    Presumably being bone idle is a disability as well.

    Edited extra bit: more's been added to the story. It does indicate that this ruling (binding across the EU) means obesity *can* be considered a disability, but not in every single case.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited December 2014
    CD13 said:

    Ms Plato,

    "Don't say 'Merry Christmas', it might offend someone, says Whitehall guidance ln.is/www.telegraph."

    Who would be offended? A Muslim colleague of mine could never understand this "offence" thing. Christ is a prophet in Islam and they are not offended by it. No other religions would worry, so that leaves atheists.

    Do any atheists on here jump on the 'offence' bus? I doubt it

    That reminds me of my favourite christmas song ever...

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fCNvZqpa-7Q

    Edit: how do you remove a youtube embed? Apologies.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Pong said:

    Does a Scottish labour leader even matter much in a westminster election?

    It might if there was a leaders debate with the Scottish Leaders......

  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Plato said:

    Dear me

    RT @Telegraph: Don't say 'Merry Christmas', it might offend someone, says Whitehall guidance ln.is/www.telegraph.…

    Well I'll say a "Merry Christmas" to all and sundry, even though I was born a Jew and am now inclined to paganism - I do like having a personal god.

    The load of PC rubbish espoused by Whitehall Wallers is grist to UKIP's mill. It's the sort of thing that tends to put the backs up most ordinary people: a thing thats remembered.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    Morris_Dancer said:

    EU court - obesity is a disability:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-30529791

    So... if I managed to eat enough to become obese [which seems unlikely], could I claim disability benefits?

    "The court said that if obesity could hinder "full and effective participation" at work then it could count as a disability."

    Presumably being bone idle is a disability as well.

    Edited extra bit: more's been added to the story. It does indicate that this ruling (binding across the EU) means obesity *can* be considered a disability, but not in every single case.

    But obesity is a self-inflicted disability - a bit like the EU it would seem.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,720
    MikeK said:

    Plato said:

    Dear me

    RT @Telegraph: Don't say 'Merry Christmas', it might offend someone, says Whitehall guidance ln.is/www.telegraph.…

    Well I'll say a "Merry Christmas" to all and sundry, even though I was born a Jew and am now inclined to paganism - I do like having a personal god.

    The load of PC rubbish espoused by Whitehall Wallers is grist to UKIP's mill. It's the sort of thing that tends to put the backs up most ordinary people: a thing thats remembered.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7nVr4Ys8zKM
  • NormNorm Posts: 1,251
    Morris_Dancer said:

    EU court - obesity is a disability:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-30529791

    So... if I managed to eat enough to become obese [which seems unlikely], could I claim disability benefits?

    "The court said that if obesity could hinder "full and effective participation" at work then it could count as a disability."

    Presumably being bone idle is a disability as well.

    Edited extra bit: more's been added to the story. It does indicate that this ruling (binding across the EU) means obesity *can* be considered a disability, but not in every single case.

    Ludicrous ruling - as a result obese people will have preferential parking places which is not exactly an incentive for them to do anything about their problem.
  • dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    MikeK said:



    The load of PC rubbish espoused by Whitehall Wallers is grist to UKIP's mill. It's the sort of thing that tends to put the backs up most ordinary people: a thing thats remembered.

    remembered whether or not it is true. just like the EU banana straightening regulations or whatever.

    This one is a second hand story from the Sun copied by the telelgraph....


    Anyway, Merry Christmas!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,742
    @pong
    I didn't copy your post to avoid copying the embedded link but I agree that is the best Christmas song ever. Christmas is far too special to leave to the religiously inclined. It is a time for families to be together. Even those that don't always get on too well!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,037
    MikeK said:

    Plato said:

    Dear me

    RT @Telegraph: Don't say 'Merry Christmas', it might offend someone, says Whitehall guidance ln.is/www.telegraph.…

    Well I'll say a "Merry Christmas" to all and sundry, even though I was born a Jew and am now inclined to paganism - I do like having a personal god.

    The load of PC rubbish espoused by Whitehall Wallers is grist to UKIP's mill. It's the sort of thing that tends to put the backs up most ordinary people: a thing thats remembered.
    Agreed. As CD13 says has anyone ever been offended by someone saying Merry Christmas? And if they are, they can say so themselves and the speaker can apologise if they feel it is warranted.

    Personally, and unfairly I know, I have an irrational problem with the phrase 'Happy Christmas'. It's Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year, not Happy Christmas and a Merry New Year! I have no idea why the former order seems wrong to me somehow
    Morris_Dancer said:


    A few militant atheists might wet themselves in horror, but a world which is utterly inoffensive to every single desperately outraged person would be a bloody tedious place for everyone else to live.

    Ah yes, militant atheists. Proof that militants of whatever creed are very alike and bloody irritating.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    SLab seem to be continuing their incredibly weird tactic of demanding that the SNP at Holyrood - take action/critcise for not acting - on areas of policy that Holyrood does not have control over.

    This is either a weird subliminal attempt to get voters to choose Labour as they are a UK wide party who will be able to act on these matters and the SNP are an irrelevance or an amazing piece of performance art.

    I'm having difficulty telling.
  • dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    DavidL said:

    @pong
    I didn't copy your post to avoid copying the embedded link but I agree that is the best Christmas song ever. Christmas is far too special to leave to the religiously inclined. It is a time for families to be together. Even those that don't always get on too well!

    a lovely song indeed. brought a wee tear to the eye, did that
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,714
    Mr. L, Easter's better. Here, for reasons entirely unrelated to procrastinating, is a list of reasons why:
    1) easier to buy presents. Wander down to local shop. Buy some chocolate eggs. Minimal stress, no thought required.
    2) presents are cheaper.
    3) immediately after Easter the shops are full of cut-price chocolate.
    4) have to buy fewer presents. It's largely optional.
    5) if you don't get an egg, it's cool. If you do, it's a nice surprise.
    6) the Easter bunny appeals to my sense of the ridiculous.

    http://thaddeuswhite.weebly.com/writing-blog/sir-edric-and-the-vampire-lord
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,037
    dugarbandier said:

    MikeK said:



    The load of PC rubbish espoused by Whitehall Wallers is grist to UKIP's mill. It's the sort of thing that tends to put the backs up most ordinary people: a thing thats remembered.

    remembered whether or not it is true. just like the EU banana straightening regulations or whatever.

    I suppose. It is very easy to imagine these things happening though, so even if such institutions get unfairly criticised for specific things they haven't done, which is unfortunate, they clearly need to work on their image problems.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Lord Ashcroft must look at my diary to see when I have meetings beforee deciding when to release his marginals polls.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    @LordAshcroft

    I shall be releasing details of more marginal seats polling at 11am. Has the marginal battleground been found. Will tactical voting prevail?

    I thought the cheeky Jake wasn't releasing any more polling this year!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,720
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. L, Easter's better. Here, for reasons entirely unrelated to procrastinating, is a list of reasons why:
    1) easier to buy presents. Wander down to local shop. Buy some chocolate eggs. Minimal stress, no thought required.
    2) presents are cheaper.
    3) immediately after Easter the shops are full of cut-price chocolate.
    4) have to buy fewer presents. It's largely optional.
    5) if you don't get an egg, it's cool. If you do, it's a nice surprise.
    6) the Easter bunny appeals to my sense of the ridiculous.

    http://thaddeuswhite.weebly.com/writing-blog/sir-edric-and-the-vampire-lord

    I feel sorry for anyone who works in retail at this time of year. It must feel like it is endlessly 1973.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Murphy's most important task - and it is one that will probably not be achieved for a while yet - is to change the conversation. At the moment, the SNP stands in the face of Westminster and is able to blame everything that goes wrong on Westminster. It is the anti-Westminster party, much as UKIP is the anti-Westminster party in England. What Murphy has to do is ensure that the Scottish government is held fully accountable for the decisions it makes and that Scottish voters understand that it is the decisions of the Scottish government that have most impact on their day to day lives.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Until we have a blockbuster pop hit called "season's greetings everyone", I'll keep using merry christmas.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,144
    foxinsoxuk said:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2878312/80-000-UK-students-told-t-train-nurse-Thousands-t-courses-despite-four-five-new-NHS-workers-foreign.html

    Much the same for medical training, I suspect.

    Much as our Portuguese nurses are excellent, as are our Greek doctors, we do seem dependent on skilled immigration. A joined up government would increase local training.

    I think Ukip would scrap tuition fees for students studying medicine
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    SouthamObserver said:

    Murphy's most important task - and it is one that will probably not be achieved for a while yet - is to change the conversation. At the moment, the SNP stands in the face of Westminster and is able to blame everything that goes wrong on Westminster. It is the anti-Westminster party, much as UKIP is the anti-Westminster party in England. What Murphy has to do is ensure that the Scottish government is held fully accountable for the decisions it makes and that Scottish voters understand that it is the decisions of the Scottish government that have most impact on their day to day lives.

    The SNP ran on its record in 2011. They were given an enormous gift by the Edinburgh Trams fiasco which they opposed and Lib/Lab/Con supported.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    SouthamObserver said:

    Murphy's most important task - and it is one that will probably not be achieved for a while yet - is to change the conversation. At the moment, the SNP stands in the face of Westminster and is able to blame everything that goes wrong on Westminster. It is the anti-Westminster party, much as UKIP is the anti-Westminster party in England. What Murphy has to do is ensure that the Scottish government is held fully accountable for the decisions it makes and that Scottish voters understand that it is the decisions of the Scottish government that have most impact on their day to day lives.

    Completely agree SO - problem is that the SNP are riding the coattails of the booming economy which is created in Westminster.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @IpsosMORI: New: CON 32 (nc); LAB 29 (nc); LIB DEM 9 (nc); UKIP 13 (-1); GREEN 9 (+2) http://t.co/WVvKvIzKqN
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,714
    Mr. P, surprised at a 3 point blue lead. Given the other polls, this would appear something of an outlier. And the Greens on 9!
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    Scott_P said:

    @IpsosMORI: New: CON 32 (nc); LAB 29 (nc); LIB DEM 9 (nc); UKIP 13 (-1); GREEN 9 (+2) http://t.co/WVvKvIzKqN

    So MORI has Dave 3 ahead while ICM has him 5 behind....WTF? Someone's wrong.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,339
    Scott_P said:

    @IpsosMORI: New: CON 32 (nc); LAB 29 (nc); LIB DEM 9 (nc); UKIP 13 (-1); GREEN 9 (+2) http://t.co/WVvKvIzKqN

    Merry Christmas, with the prospect of a very happy New Year....

This discussion has been closed.