Options
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What makes Jim Murphy so dangerous to the SNP is that for t
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What makes Jim Murphy so dangerous to the SNP is that for the first time in years LAB has a credible alternative First Minister
It is worth recapping why we are where we are in Scotland. Back in early 2011 it looked as though Scottish LAB was in a position to make a return to power in Holyrood ahead of the Scottish Parliament elections that May.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
So why would Scottish Tory voters (with the LDs draining support in Scotland) switch their support to Labour to keep out the SNP? After all, the more SNP MPs there are, the likelier it is - in theory - that David Cameron can stay on as PM. Is that a nightmare scenario for Tories? Really?
Murphy's better bet is surely to use that line instead - persuade ex-Labour voters that an SNP surge increases the chance of a continuing Tory government by leaving the Conservatives with more MPs than Labour UK-wide.
Given all that, I'm at a loss to why they would be won back by a Westminster Blairite who was the face of the anti-independence campaign.
If you are ex-Labour in Scotland, you are already at the Deadward stage.....
http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/minister-in-plea-to-save-north-sea-oil-jobs-1-3637225
There are two options for Scotland : 1, it becomes increasingly bitter, and there's a referendum every decade, until the "right" result is reached, or 2, like in Quebec or the Basque country, the population gets an acceptable degree of independence and the issue fizzles somewhat
There are more examples of the latter than the former.
What I am not so sure about is the relevance of Labour having a credible FM candidate in 2015. We are not electing a FM then. We are electing a PM for the country and somewhat unfortunately for Labour Murphy is not their candidate for that job.
Can Murphy galvanise the Unionist vote in Scotland? Maybe in some constituencies such as his own but in many Labour fiefdoms that is not going to be the important question. The question will be can he win back ex Labour supporters who voted yes and that is something he will find tougher.
In 2010 the SNP did not campaign particularly vigorously for Westminster. Their eyes and resources were very much on the prize of maintaining their minority government in Holyrood and 2011 completely vindicated those tactics forcing the referendum upon us. In 2015 the SNP still seem to have plenty of resources and a huge new membership base desperate to do something. I think they will try a lot harder as they try to keep the yes coalition together for 2016.
This under or over market looks pretty well balanced to me with no particularly obvious value on one side or the other.
Much the same for medical training, I suspect.
Much as our Portuguese nurses are excellent, as are our Greek doctors, we do seem dependent on skilled immigration. A joined up government would increase local training.
More generally we should think in terms of making student loans immediately due on people leaving the country, we shouldn't be in the game of providing finance at the national expense for people to use the skill elsewhere. People wishing to emigrate would have to take over the student loan on usual commercial terms.
That should be Murphy's priority too and that means he needs to get himself into Holyrood soonest. There have been rumours of a job swap for him in 2015 with a by election for Holyrood on the same day as the GE. It would be a high risk strategy because he would have to resign the leadership if he lost but that should be his priority in 2015.
Mostly UK doctors going to Australia stay a year before returning, and work in remote areas or shortage specialities. It is very difficult to get into postgraduate training in Australia in popular specialities. Psychiatry or Emergency Medicine, but not surgical training.
I also find myself in rare agreement with some of the points made in a DM column. The competition for places in nursing and midwifery has resulted in absurdly high academic entrance qualifications for a practical job that needs physical skills and compassion more than academic excellence.
If Greece does fall apart in 2015, he'll still own his flat in Sydney, so don't feel too sorry for him.
Pharmacy asked for a similar cap to the medics, but it was refused.
Exclusive: Francois Hollande will block Mr Cameron’s request for a change to the EU treaty to include a new settlement for Britain in Europe, The Telegraph has learnt.
David Cameron’s bid to renegotiate Britain’s relationship with the European Union will be dealt a blow on Thursday when the French president tells the Prime Minister he is “obsessed with his own problems”.
Francois Hollande will block Mr Cameron’s request for a change to the EU treaty to include a new settlement for Britain in Europe, The Telegraph has learnt.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/11300291/France-to-block-David-Camerons-treaty-change-plan.html
Scotland did not dodge a bullet in September, it chose to step out of the way of an out-of-control express train headed straight towards it:
http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/business-30525539
The lost direct tax revenues are only a part of the story. Throw in lost income tax and VAT receipts from increased unemployment and lower wages in the energy sector, higher social security spending, downgraded investment, the impossibility of securing a currency union except on the most draconian terms, higher borrowing costs and so on. And that's before you throw in the finance sector decamping down to the south. If Yes had won Scotland would have been looking at an economic and fiscal catastrophe. Not that the Nats would have cared - a new international border was their only concern.
It was always clear that the SNP was fibbing for freedom, but the scale of the lies told was truly breathtaking - as is the current ploy of downplaying the importance of oil to Scotland's economy.
RT @Telegraph: Don't say 'Merry Christmas', it might offend someone, says Whitehall guidance ln.is/www.telegraph.…
Jim Murphy is clearly one of the most talented Labour politicians in Scotland. His problem is he may be more admired within the Scottish Tory Party than he is by the typical Labour voter.
I really would be surprised if he wins back many of the 2010 Labour voters who voted YES in September. Those are the voters Labour needs to recover because they are in Glasgow, North Lanarkshire and Dunbartonshire which contain more than 1/3 of Labour's Scottish seats.
There is only one party in Scotland which people identify as being thoroughly Unionist and that is the Scottish Tory Party. That is why we are the subject of hate by the Ultra Nats.
Personally, I would abolish the cap on numbers training here, allow medical schools to expand and widen recruitment so that the market can find its level. There would also need to be an increase in the number of postgraduate training places.
This is an example from my own field, but until these artificial restrictions are lifted we will need immigration. I am sure the same is true of many other fields, particularly in science and technological areas.
The SNP might not win 54 seats in May next year, but I don't intend to start selling the SNP on Sporting Index just yet.
Where I do agree with our host is that now is the time to be making a call on Scotland one way or another. It's high risk, but all the value will disappear from the market when the information comes through.
I shall be putting a post up on this subject at the weekend (or just possibly Monday, depending on how the Christmas shopping goes).
Miss Plato, some people seem to get off on being offended.
While I disagree with our host on how he's acted, now is the time to act.
It is also fantasy to think Scots Tory voters will tactically vote Labour to keep out the SNP. I for one will cheer every Labour seat the SNP wins as it will be another nail in the SLAB coffin. My aim is to see David Cameron remain in Westminster. I would frankly rather live in a Scotland run by the SNP than a UK run by Balls and Bland. I want to see a Scotland where if you support Independence you vote SNP and if you oppose Independence you vote Tory. Given a few years it may come about.
2010 was an unexpectedly good Westminster election for SLAB, perhaps the Brown influence, so was always going to be a hard one to defend.
A lot depends on how Sturgeon goes down as FM. If she antagonises the electorate then we may see voters drifting in all sorts of interesting directions.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/30524725
"Ferrari are to part company with another senior figure after revealing tyre chief Hirohide Hamashima is to leave at the end of the year.
It is the latest development in a quite remarkable series of events this season, and comes less than a day after the departure of two other managers.
The team announced on Tuesday the exits of engineering director Pat Fry and chief designer Nikolas Tombazis.
Their president, two team principals and engine boss have also left in 2014."
But thanks to you, I think I've got enough constituency bets to make an SNP surge very profitable.
If like you, I think Mike might be misunderestimating Jim Murphy's appeal, and I buy the SNP and they disappoint on the night, then I'll be like grrr.
Sometimes the most profitable cause of action is not to bet (yet)
As an aside, Scotland has been a very profitable area for me, recently in 2011 and then with the Indyref. I reckon distance lends perspective
If a radio's switched off, even the most charming message in the world won't persuade the chap sitting next to it. In the same way I find it very hard to see myself voting for Ed Balls, the converts north of the border may well be full of the zeal of the converted and anger at having failed in the referendum.
Murphy does seem capable, but he's also a Westminster MP made head of a Scottish party when the outgoing leader accused Westminster of treating it like a branch office.
It also depends how voters in Scotland view the forthcoming General Election. Is their priority:
1) hit the evil Tories?
2) maximise Scottish devolution?
1) can be achieved by voting SNP or Labour. 2) can be achieved by voting SNP.
What's the draw for Labour? Miliband's less popular than Cameron (and sometimes even Clegg) north of the border. If independence is the burning desire for 'the 45', then why would they return to a unionist party?
I wonder if there will be any Scottish seats among them. Surely Gordon must be high on his list of "to do" seats.
I shall be releasing details of more marginal seats polling at 11am. Has the marginal battleground been found. Will tactical voting prevail?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2876170/Brighton-Sussex-University-Hospitals-NHS-trust-sends-bizarre-list-guidelines-staff-make-sure-Christmas-party-politically-correct.html
I remember when hospital Christmas parties were deliciously debauched, drunken, bawdy and on premises!
So this is one Scottish tory who will vote Labour in Dundee West to try and keep out the SNP. I shall do a penance by canvassing for Tories in Angus and North Perthshire, against the SNP of course. I have no doubts at all who my ultimate enemy is.
“It has not been helped by recent British behaviour over the EU budget, which was widely regarded as childish"
Britain's policy in Europe has not been serious for some time - it's been driven entirely by the wish to stay members while pacifying Eurosceptics.
On topic, the YouGov subsamples in Scotland (yes, I know...) aren't showing any special impact either way of Murphy's arrival. He's a clever, heavyweight politician (though not an emotional crowd-puller like Gordon at his best) but it will need some set-piece wins, such as Scottish-only TV debates where he is seen to beat Sturgeon.
Almost no new projects in the North Sea are profitable with oil below $60 a barrel, he claims.
"This has happened before, and the industry adapts, but the adaptation is one of slashing people, slashing projects and reducing costs wherever possible, and that's painful for our staff, painful for companies and painful for the country.
"It's close to collapse. In terms of new investments - there will be none, everyone is retreating, people are being laid off at most companies this week and in the coming weeks. Budgets for 2015 are being cut by everyone."
Mr Allan said many of the job cuts across the industry would not have been publicly announced. Oil workers are often employed as contractors, which are easier for employers to cut.
His remarks echo comments made by the veteran oil man and government adviser Sir Ian Wood, who last week predicted a wave of job losses in the North Sea over the next 18 months.
The US-based oil giant ConocoPhillips is cutting 230 out of 1,650 jobs in the UK.
This month it announced a 20% reduction in its worldwide capital expenditure budget, in response to falling oil prices.
Other big oil firms are expected to make similar cuts to their drilling and exploration budgets. Research from the investment bank Goldman Sachs predicted that they would need to cut capital expenditure by 30% to restore their profitability at current prices.
Service providers to the industry have also been hit. Texas-based oilfield services company Schlumberger cut back its UK-based fleet of geological survey ships in December, taking an $800m loss and cutting an unspecified number of jobs.
Aberdeen-based Wood Group announced a pay freeze for staff, and cut rates for its contractors.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-30525539
Unless there is an unlikely significant increase in the oil price in the New Year, then there will sharp cutbacks in Scotland which will certainly have an effect on the Scottish economy and SNP projections and also could well affect the GE.
Can't you move house?
After the loss of our traditional industries such as ship building the north sea gave a huge number of opportunities for guys with limited education but a willingness to work bloody hard to earn really good money, money which bled into the shopping centres and housing markets of Scotland and beyond. We will all feel the draught of this. It will take the gloss off any increase in real wages for a start.
The toll badge will cost up to €130 (£103; $162) a year, depending on a car's age, engine size and emissions.
German motorists will pay tolls for local roads as well as the Autobahn motorways. But that will be offset by a cut in their motor vehicle tax.
The European Commission has warned that the new toll may be discriminatory.
A letter from EU Transport Commissioner Violeta Bulc, quoted by German media, says the offset scheme for German drivers - to spare them additional road costs - may discriminate against foreigners, thereby violating EU law.
The toll - known in German as "Pkw-Maut" - is not yet law. The plan is to introduce it in 2016.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-30516530
And what will the EU do to its largest financial contributor - nothing.
The Wales Act 2014 means a referendum could be held to give Welsh ministers the power to vary income tax.
The Welsh government, now its official name, is also getting control of stamp duty, land tax and landfill tax, and can now borrow up to £1bn.
First Minister Carwyn Jones said it "marks the next step on our devolution journey".
The changes mean the Welsh government is now accountable for raising some of the money it spends.
Power over landfill taxes, stamp duty and the aggregates levy will pass to Cardiff Bay in 2018.
However, devolution of income tax powers will be subject to a referendum.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-30520738
And having campaigned for more control of their income, the prospect scares the Welsh government almost out of their wits - that is if they ever had any in the first place.
I don't think it'll, sadly, be a major election issue. But after 2015 when Scottish MPs are voting on English income tax, it may well be.
When the market opened, I bought SNP seats @ 20.5 for as much as SPIN would allow. I'm happy enough with that position for now.
"Don't say 'Merry Christmas', it might offend someone, says Whitehall guidance ln.is/www.telegraph."
Who would be offended? A Muslim colleague of mine could never understand this "offence" thing. Christ is a prophet in Islam and they are not offended by it. No other religions would worry, so that leaves atheists.
Do any atheists on here jump on the 'offence' bus? I doubt it
A few militant atheists might wet themselves in horror, but a world which is utterly inoffensive to every single desperately outraged person would be a bloody tedious place for everyone else to live.
@ONS: Food store prices saw their largest fall since June 2002, dropping 1% in Nov 2014 http://t.co/bPUg8HpMGK
@ONS: Retail Sales increased 6.4% year on year in November 14. Biggest rise in a decade http://t.co/UNpyW65tSS
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-30529791
So... if I managed to eat enough to become obese [which seems unlikely], could I claim disability benefits?
"The court said that if obesity could hinder "full and effective participation" at work then it could count as a disability."
Presumably being bone idle is a disability as well.
Edited extra bit: more's been added to the story. It does indicate that this ruling (binding across the EU) means obesity *can* be considered a disability, but not in every single case.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fCNvZqpa-7Q
Edit: how do you remove a youtube embed? Apologies.
The load of PC rubbish espoused by Whitehall Wallers is grist to UKIP's mill. It's the sort of thing that tends to put the backs up most ordinary people: a thing thats remembered.
This one is a second hand story from the Sun copied by the telelgraph....
Anyway, Merry Christmas!
I didn't copy your post to avoid copying the embedded link but I agree that is the best Christmas song ever. Christmas is far too special to leave to the religiously inclined. It is a time for families to be together. Even those that don't always get on too well!
Personally, and unfairly I know, I have an irrational problem with the phrase 'Happy Christmas'. It's Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year, not Happy Christmas and a Merry New Year! I have no idea why the former order seems wrong to me somehow Ah yes, militant atheists. Proof that militants of whatever creed are very alike and bloody irritating.
This is either a weird subliminal attempt to get voters to choose Labour as they are a UK wide party who will be able to act on these matters and the SNP are an irrelevance or an amazing piece of performance art.
I'm having difficulty telling.
1) easier to buy presents. Wander down to local shop. Buy some chocolate eggs. Minimal stress, no thought required.
2) presents are cheaper.
3) immediately after Easter the shops are full of cut-price chocolate.
4) have to buy fewer presents. It's largely optional.
5) if you don't get an egg, it's cool. If you do, it's a nice surprise.
6) the Easter bunny appeals to my sense of the ridiculous.
http://thaddeuswhite.weebly.com/writing-blog/sir-edric-and-the-vampire-lord