So, if Labour were 5 points ahead on the day, that'd be an outright majority? If we had Con 32, Lab 29, would the blues get a majority [given the probable SNP surge]?
Must say I agree with Mr. 662. Probably quite even, with Labour a tiny bit ahead.
So, if Labour were 5 points ahead on the day, that'd be an outright majority? If we had Con 32, Lab 29, would the blues get a majority [given the probable SNP surge]?
Must say I agree with Mr. 662. Probably quite even, with Labour a tiny bit ahead.
Labour Minority, IPSOS is overstating the Blues, ICM the reds methinks.
The wise among us said it would hit Farage and UKIP
Nigel Farage’s personal ratings have crashed to a record low in the first leader poll since Ukip was rocked by a sex scandal and dirty tricks rows.
Pollsters Ipsos MORI found that net satisfaction with Mr Farage’s performance as leader has plummeted 14 points since November to minus 20.
It is the first sign that the honeymoon between Ukip’s popular leader and the voters is being harmed by infighting and vicious briefing wars in its high command.
The wise among us said it would hit Farage and UKIP
Nigel Farage’s personal ratings have crashed to a record low in the first leader poll since Ukip was rocked by a sex scandal and dirty tricks rows.
Pollsters Ipsos MORI found that net satisfaction with Mr Farage’s performance as leader has plummeted 14 points since November to minus 20.
It is the first sign that the honeymoon between Ukip’s popular leader and the voters is being harmed by infighting and vicious briefing wars in its high command.
You have to give ICM a bit of a break, they changed their name from ICM research to ICM unlimited last month, and they are still sorting out their website.
Far too much importance is being attached to Murphy. What is Labour prepared to promise Scotland? Do they want EdM as prime minister? Murphy could be the second coming but he has little control over these things. I'm surprised OH would want to use the precedent of the 2011 Scottish election for the very different 2015 GE. The 2010 and 2011 results in Scotland were totally different. Could well be the same for 2015-16.
There are two options for Scotland : 1, it becomes increasingly bitter, and there's a referendum every decade, until the "right" result is reached, or 2, like in Quebec or the Basque country, the population gets an acceptable degree of independence and the issue fizzles somewhat
There are more examples of the latter than the former.
Fully agree. But achieving this also implies and necessitates an acceptable accommodation for England. Dan Hodges was right in his blog the other day that England will not forever put up with the whiney, self interesteded, money grabbing and over-representation of Scotland. Give them Devomax and effective home rule. And the same to England. Then we can all shut up and live happily together in a federal UK.
Unfortunately the whinging Little Englander fannies down south prefer to keep the powers , they do not want Scotland to be able to run its own affairs. It is all they have left of their pretendy empire , punch above our weight wank-off fantasy. They will milk us dry first.
Former city minister Lord Myners said today the sell-off was executed with 'considerable professionalism' and the Government and taxpayer achieved 'significant value'.
He said that raising the share price sale level by more than 30p to 350p could have put the whole deal at risk. This would have raised the extra £180million.
Although I am suspicious of what sounds OTT praise by Myners in regards to Cable's handling of this, but the share price is now sub 400p, suggests that after all the froth the price wasn't totally out of the ball park.
The wise among us said it would hit Farage and UKIP
Nigel Farage’s personal ratings have crashed to a record low in the first leader poll since Ukip was rocked by a sex scandal and dirty tricks rows.
Pollsters Ipsos MORI found that net satisfaction with Mr Farage’s performance as leader has plummeted 14 points since November to minus 20.
It is the first sign that the honeymoon between Ukip’s popular leader and the voters is being harmed by infighting and vicious briefing wars in its high command.
I should add that just like the SNP did in 2010 Scottish Labour should be seriously focussed on the main Scottish prize of 2016 which is much more important to their strength going forward than sending a lump of MPs who may well find themselves not able to vote on most matters before the HoC.
That should be Murphy's priority too and that means he needs to get himself into Holyrood soonest. There have been rumours of a job swap for him in 2015 with a by election for Holyrood on the same day as the GE. It would be a high risk strategy because he would have to resign the leadership if he lost but that should be his priority in 2015.
For sure money and a snout in the Lords trough will be on offer to some donkey soon enough to allow Murphy to get in.
So MORI has Dave 3 ahead while ICM has him 5 behind....WTF? Someone's wrong.
Yup.
You have to ask yourself if the Greens are likely to get 9% though - seems very very high.
I'd say the Greens will almost certainly poll under whatever the polls are saying because they won't have a full field of candidates so some people will realise they can't actually vote for them on the day.
So MORI has Dave 3 ahead while ICM has him 5 behind....WTF? Someone's wrong.
Yup.
You have to ask yourself if the Greens are likely to get 9% though - seems very very high.
I'd say the Greens will almost certainly poll under whatever the polls are saying because they won't have a full field of candidates so some people will realise they can't actually vote for them on the day.
Of course.
So we have to allocate some of the Green tally to the party (ies) those people are likely to vote for in their absence..
Sort of on topic, I do wonder if this actually the platform for Jim Murphy to become Lab leader of the whole party.
Just imagine next May, Labour finish second, and Jim has managed to stop the separatist surge in its tracks.
There will me many Lab MPs who think, Ed is crap, Jim's the man.
Yeah, I followed the same thought process. My guess is his eyes are set on holyrood in 2016, but who knows?
Anyway, he's available at 33/1 @ lads. I couldn't resist scooping up the £2 available on him to be next PM after dave @ 249/1 (betfair). It's unlikely, but not 249/1 unlikely!
With the Great Grimsby poll I do wonder how many of the voters THINK Mitchell will be on the ballot paper again and perhaps may vote UKIP or stay at home when they realise he isn't ?
The wise among us said it would hit Farage and UKIP
Nigel Farage’s personal ratings have crashed to a record low in the first leader poll since Ukip was rocked by a sex scandal and dirty tricks rows.
Pollsters Ipsos MORI found that net satisfaction with Mr Farage’s performance as leader has plummeted 14 points since November to minus 20.
It is the first sign that the honeymoon between Ukip’s popular leader and the voters is being harmed by infighting and vicious briefing wars in its high command.
Yet, Farage remains the most popular (or rather, least unpopular) party leader.
Nick Clegg and Ed Milliband have the same sort of approval ratings that plague rats do.
13% for UKIP compares with 10% in December 2013, and 7% in December 2012, with Ipsos Mori. I can remember just over two years ago that UKIP supporters got very excited when Survation put them into double figures for the first time.
Murphy's most important task - and it is one that will probably not be achieved for a while yet - is to change the conversation. At the moment, the SNP stands in the face of Westminster and is able to blame everything that goes wrong on Westminster. It is the anti-Westminster party, much as UKIP is the anti-Westminster party in England. What Murphy has to do is ensure that the Scottish government is held fully accountable for the decisions it makes and that Scottish voters understand that it is the decisions of the Scottish government that have most impact on their day to day lives.
I agree with that but this is why he needs to be in Holyrood challenging Nicola Sturgeon every week, not being voices off in Westminster. If he does not stand for a Holyrood seat rather than a Westminster seat in May he will be making a serious mistake.
Morning all and I see as per normal almost no-one is actually discussing the subject of the thread.
Jim Murphy is clearly one of the most talented Labour politicians in Scotland. His problem is he may be more admired within the Scottish Tory Party than he is by the typical Labour voter.
I really would be surprised if he wins back many of the 2010 Labour voters who voted YES in September. Those are the voters Labour needs to recover because they are in Glasgow, North Lanarkshire and Dunbartonshire which contain more than 1/3 of Labour's Scottish seats.
There is only one party in Scotland which people identify as being thoroughly Unionist and that is the Scottish Tory Party. That is why we are the subject of hate by the Ultra Nats.
Better ignored than having to suffer the normal ill educated guff spouted about Scotland on here.
LOL, I like the new nasty party reason for being useless, "them pesky Nats hate us , wah wah wah "
There is only one party in Scotland which people identify as being thoroughly Unionist and that is the Scottish Tory Party. That is why we are the subject of hate by the Ultra Nats.
It's entertaining to see in their rush to relevance, the competition between the Unionist parties as to who is the most 'hated' by the SNP (who could forget 'Willie Rennie, the man the Nats fear'). It's broadly true that political parties hate those opponents who are the biggest threat to them; that ain't the SCons or, snigger, the SLDs.
LOL, they could hardly fill a taxi between them , lucky for them Holyrood gives free seats to the duff parties or they would be totally absent. None of them can get a leader who was actually elected by a voter, all just consolation jockeys and how it shows when they open their mouths.
Robin Allan, chairman of the independent explorers' association Brindex, told the BBC that the industry was "close to collapse".
Almost no new projects in the North Sea are profitable with oil below $60 a barrel, he claims.
"This has happened before, and the industry adapts, but the adaptation is one of slashing people, slashing projects and reducing costs wherever possible, and that's painful for our staff, painful for companies and painful for the country.
"It's close to collapse. In terms of new investments - there will be none, everyone is retreating, people are being laid off at most companies this week and in the coming weeks. Budgets for 2015 are being cut by everyone."
Mr Allan said many of the job cuts across the industry would not have been publicly announced. Oil workers are often employed as contractors, which are easier for employers to cut.
His remarks echo comments made by the veteran oil man and government adviser Sir Ian Wood, who last week predicted a wave of job losses in the North Sea over the next 18 months.
The US-based oil giant ConocoPhillips is cutting 230 out of 1,650 jobs in the UK.
This month it announced a 20% reduction in its worldwide capital expenditure budget, in response to falling oil prices.
Other big oil firms are expected to make similar cuts to their drilling and exploration budgets. Research from the investment bank Goldman Sachs predicted that they would need to cut capital expenditure by 30% to restore their profitability at current prices.
Service providers to the industry have also been hit. Texas-based oilfield services company Schlumberger cut back its UK-based fleet of geological survey ships in December, taking an $800m loss and cutting an unspecified number of jobs.
Aberdeen-based Wood Group announced a pay freeze for staff, and cut rates for its contractors.
Unless there is an unlikely significant increase in the oil price in the New Year, then there will sharp cutbacks in Scotland which will certainly have an effect on the Scottish economy and SNP projections and also could well affect the GE.
This business of anti-SNP tactical voting. I always take large-scale tactical voting to be a thing of habit, initially sparked by very strong sentiment (eg hatred of the unpopular Major govt driving Labour supporters to vote LD in 97). I'm not sure what the equivalent in Scotland is that will see tactical voting against the SNP right now. Had Salmond and Sturgeon been talking up a second indyref as a post-election bargaining chip, maybe - but they're not.
So why would Scottish Tory voters (with the LDs draining support in Scotland) switch their support to Labour to keep out the SNP? After all, the more SNP MPs there are, the likelier it is - in theory - that David Cameron can stay on as PM. Is that a nightmare scenario for Tories? Really?
Murphy's better bet is surely to use that line instead - persuade ex-Labour voters that an SNP surge increases the chance of a continuing Tory government by leaving the Conservatives with more MPs than Labour UK-wide.
This last couple of days, Labour have been telling Scots that if they vote SNP, they get Tory.
On the other hand, the Tories have been telling the Scots that if they vote SNP, they get Labour ...
I should add that just like the SNP did in 2010 Scottish Labour should be seriously focussed on the main Scottish prize of 2016 which is much more important to their strength going forward than sending a lump of MPs who may well find themselves not able to vote on most matters before the HoC.
That should be Murphy's priority too and that means he needs to get himself into Holyrood soonest. There have been rumours of a job swap for him in 2015 with a by election for Holyrood on the same day as the GE. It would be a high risk strategy because he would have to resign the leadership if he lost but that should be his priority in 2015.
At the moment it seems as if you have to be a MSP or MP to be elected SLAB leader but whether you need to be a MSP/MP to stay top honcho is not clear - however the talk we have seen coming from Mr Murphy's coterie of him leaving Westminster in 2015 and having a year wandering Scotland till the 2016 election implies not (or that the rules will be changed).
SLab seem to be continuing their incredibly weird tactic of demanding that the SNP at Holyrood - take action/critcise for not acting - on areas of policy that Holyrood does not have control over.
This is either a weird subliminal attempt to get voters to choose Labour as they are a UK wide party who will be able to act on these matters and the SNP are an irrelevance or an amazing piece of performance art.
I'm having difficulty telling.
There is another logical possibility, but I wouldn't want to accuse the honourable members of deliberately fibbing.
This business of anti-SNP tactical voting. I always take large-scale tactical voting to be a thing of habit, initially sparked by very strong sentiment (eg hatred of the unpopular Major govt driving Labour supporters to vote LD in 97). I'm not sure what the equivalent in Scotland is that will see tactical voting against the SNP right now. Had Salmond and Sturgeon been talking up a second indyref as a post-election bargaining chip, maybe - but they're not.
So why would Scottish Tory voters (with the LDs draining support in Scotland) switch their support to Labour to keep out the SNP? After all, the more SNP MPs there are, the likelier it is - in theory - that David Cameron can stay on as PM. Is that a nightmare scenario for Tories? Really?
Murphy's better bet is surely to use that line instead - persuade ex-Labour voters that an SNP surge increases the chance of a continuing Tory government by leaving the Conservatives with more MPs than Labour UK-wide.
Good analysis - I think the main tactical vote in the GE 2015 will be Tories voting SNP to keep Labour out. If SLAB start pursuing tactical votes this could easily backfire and send more of their dwindling band of supporters to the Greens, SNP, SSP, UKIP and back to the LibDems. I think SLAB's poll rating will drop below 20 %.
I think we will see much more tactical voting in Holyrood 2016.
This business of anti-SNP tactical voting. I always take large-scale tactical voting to be a thing of habit, initially sparked by very strong sentiment (eg hatred of the unpopular Major govt driving Labour supporters to vote LD in 97). I'm not sure what the equivalent in Scotland is that will see tactical voting against the SNP right now. Had Salmond and Sturgeon been talking up a second indyref as a post-election bargaining chip, maybe - but they're not.
So why would Scottish Tory voters (with the LDs draining support in Scotland) switch their support to Labour to keep out the SNP? After all, the more SNP MPs there are, the likelier it is - in theory - that David Cameron can stay on as PM. Is that a nightmare scenario for Tories? Really?
Murphy's better bet is surely to use that line instead - persuade ex-Labour voters that an SNP surge increases the chance of a continuing Tory government by leaving the Conservatives with more MPs than Labour UK-wide.
This last couple of days, Labour have been telling Scots that if they vote SNP, they get Tory.
On the other hand, the Tories have been telling the Scots that if they vote SNP, they get Labour ...
I think the mainstream parties would be better of saying nothing, all the confused messaging is only going to keep driving the SNP surge.
I think some of us are underestimating the degree of resentment at the SNP from some parts of the Scottish electorate. The idea that Tories would vote SNP to keep Labour out might have some basic logic to it if you're a diehard David Cameron fan and want to maximise his chances of being Prime Minister, but tactical voting also operates in a negative sense - i.e. to keep out the party you like the least.
I still feel as though a large proportion of SNP-friendly blogs/commentators operate from the standpoint that the vast majority of people in Scotland have some positive feeling toward the SNP even if they don't vote for them. In reality we now have a sizeable portion of the electorate who see them as a basic threat to our political system/prosperity. Tories might not want Labour to win the election, but that's a concern of a much smaller magnitude than the SNP breaking the country apart.
Personally, I don't want a Labour government (I think the coalition is working fairly well), but I'll still end up voting for them because only Labour and the SNP can win in my constituency. Labour might not be great, but I'd vote for a traffic cone with a rosette on it before I ever considered backing the independence movement. The self-righteous, populist, emotion-led gibberish that comes out of the Yes side is pretty much anathema to everything I believe in.
Comments
Slip slidin' away....
You have to ask yourself if the Greens are likely to get 9% though - seems very very high.
Must say I agree with Mr. 662. Probably quite even, with Labour a tiny bit ahead.
Nigel Farage’s personal ratings have crashed to a record low in the first leader poll since Ukip was rocked by a sex scandal and dirty tricks rows.
Pollsters Ipsos MORI found that net satisfaction with Mr Farage’s performance as leader has plummeted 14 points since November to minus 20.
It is the first sign that the honeymoon between Ukip’s popular leader and the voters is being harmed by infighting and vicious briefing wars in its high command.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/nigel-farage-poll-popularity-at-record-low-ukip-9932558.html
http://static.guim.co.uk/ni/1418826349810/OmBPC-Dec14.pdf
And once again they are getting spanked.
His Christmas card is quite funny and has the kitchen sink on it
http://order-order.com/2014/12/18/mark-reckless-godless-christmas-card/
Former city minister Lord Myners said today the sell-off was executed with 'considerable professionalism' and the Government and taxpayer achieved 'significant value'.
He said that raising the share price sale level by more than 30p to 350p could have put the whole deal at risk. This would have raised the extra £180million.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2878681/Taxpayers-lost-180million-Royal-Mail-sell-year-not-1billion-feared-review-finds.html
Although I am suspicious of what sounds OTT praise by Myners in regards to Cable's handling of this, but the share price is now sub 400p, suggests that after all the froth the price wasn't totally out of the ball park.
Just imagine next May, Labour finish second, and Jim has managed to stop the separatist surge in its tracks.
There will me many Lab MPs who think, Ed is crap, Jim's the man.
"Greens are like the thinking womans UKIP."
You might be right. As the famous feminist said ...
"If civilization had been left in female hands we would still be living in grass huts."
So we have to allocate some of the Green tally to the party (ies) those people are likely to vote for in their absence..
Anyway, he's available at 33/1 @ lads. I couldn't resist scooping up the £2 available on him to be next PM after dave @ 249/1 (betfair). It's unlikely, but not 249/1 unlikely!
16-1 on UKIP here.
GET IN.
Nick Clegg and Ed Milliband have the same sort of approval ratings that plague rats do.
13% for UKIP compares with 10% in December 2013, and 7% in December 2012, with Ipsos Mori. I can remember just over two years ago that UKIP supporters got very excited when Survation put them into double figures for the first time.
LOL, I like the new nasty party reason for being useless, "them pesky Nats hate us , wah wah wah "
On the other hand, the Tories have been telling the Scots that if they vote SNP, they get Labour ...
I think we will see much more tactical voting in Holyrood 2016.
I still feel as though a large proportion of SNP-friendly blogs/commentators operate from the standpoint that the vast majority of people in Scotland have some positive feeling toward the SNP even if they don't vote for them. In reality we now have a sizeable portion of the electorate who see them as a basic threat to our political system/prosperity. Tories might not want Labour to win the election, but that's a concern of a much smaller magnitude than the SNP breaking the country apart.
Personally, I don't want a Labour government (I think the coalition is working fairly well), but I'll still end up voting for them because only Labour and the SNP can win in my constituency. Labour might not be great, but I'd vote for a traffic cone with a rosette on it before I ever considered backing the independence movement. The self-righteous, populist, emotion-led gibberish that comes out of the Yes side is pretty much anathema to everything I believe in.