politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Comres online poll sees the Blues up by 3 points

rcs1000 said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, I'm significantly unimpressed by that move on election spending.

Oh it's fine, it's not the Tories' fault that people want to donate money to them and the other parties haven't got a pot to piss in.

Money = Free Speech

Theoretically it does have major betting implications.

Do you really want to get into the situation they have in the States where elections come down to who has the most money to spend?

I have thought long and hard about this issue. Because it's two friends butting up against each other: free of speech, versus diversity of speech.

And I think we have to come down on the side of freedom of speech. It's simply too dangerous to disallow people from having a voice (i.e., say that someone cannot buy advertising time to promote their candidate), just because the consequences bother us.

Likewise, the rules on media exposure must be changed. If The Times or Sky wishes to pretend the Liberal Democrats do not exist, that is there concern.

Obviously the BBC is a problem, but it is one that can be sorted by simply closing it down.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Tonight's YouGov/Sunday Times poll is

Con 32% Lab 32% LD 7% UKIP 16% Greens 7%

Lab and Con tied for three YGs in a row?

No, Thursday's YouGov had Labour ahead by 25.

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/1o150dfzov/YG-Archives-Pol-Trackers-Voting-Trends-with-UKIP-111214.pdf

TheScreamingEagles said:

Betting post

Yougov poll shows 26% think Lewis Hamilton will be BBC sports personality of the year to 9% for Rory McIlroy

You can still back Lewis at 15/8

http://www.oddschecker.com/awards/sports-personality-of-the-year/winner

TheScreamingEagles said:

peter_from_putney said:

TSE - what are the movements please on last week's Sunday Times/YouGov poll?

Changes since last week

Con (nc) Lab (nc) LD (+1) UKIP (-1) Greens (nc)

HurstLlama said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Before so people have an aneurysm, I disagree with what the Tories have done re campaign spending, and the way they did it.

Though it shows how crap Labour are in not spotting in, and desperately need a decent legal mind in the Commons.

Huzzah for Keir Starmer

Amazing that the law can be changed to the detriment of other parties and nobody even notices. One doesn't require a forensic legal mind to read, yet apparently nobody did. Someone, I think it was young Mr. Dancer, was arguing on here earlier for MPs to be paid more. This event blows that out of the water; my cat can fail to read legislation as well as anyone on £60k let alone more.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Tonight's YouGov/Sunday Times poll is

Con 32% Lab 32% LD 7% UKIP 16% Greens 7%

Lab and Con tied for three YGs in a row?

No, Thursday's YouGov had Labour ahead by 25.

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/1o150dfzov/YG-Archives-Pol-Trackers-Voting-Trends-with-UKIP-111214.pdf

audreyanne said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

peter_from_putney said:

TSE - what are the movements please on last week's Sunday Times/YouGov poll?

Changes since last week

Con (nc) Lab (nc) LD (+1) UKIP (-1) Greens (nc)

Did you see my query about the ComRes sample size TSE? Is it definitely 2,014 and do they normally use that sample size.

peter_from_putney said:

audreyanne said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Oooh - From survation

We will have 2 English seat polls out next week and the first Scottish polling post Jim Murphy's appointment as SLAB Leader. Stay tuned!

The Conservative share will be down. Most private schools broke up yesterday so it's holiday season.

Kind-of-kidding but not entirely. For all sorts of reasons polls will be pretty pointless until well into January.

I would have though that Christmas & the New Year would be a good time for any governing party on account of [relative] plenty of food and drink, holiday from work [but relatives to contend with], Christmas bonuses [if any] and annual salary reviews [if any].
Equally I would expect things to turn sour by the end of January when the Christmas binging starts to appear on the plastic.

The serious bit behind my joking is that holidays frequently seem to skew polls. A lot of people travel, whether that's within or beyond these shores.

I'm not sure Christmas is a time of unbridled joy for everyone. Some people find the whole thing a pain in the arse, at least by Boxing Day.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Tonight's YouGov/Sunday Times poll is

Con 32% Lab 32% LD 7% UKIP 16% Greens 7%

Lab and Con tied for three YGs in a row?

No, Thursday's YouGov had Labour ahead by 2%.

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/1o150dfzov/YG-Archives-Pol-Trackers-Voting-Trends-with-UKIP-111214.pdf

TheScreamingEagles said:

The BBC are about to enrage the Tory party even more

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B4xF-U-IYAAtQOZ.png

JonnyJimmy said:

Have been away a while due to working my ass off at a new job.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Llama, paying more would improve the quality of MPs.

TheScreamingEagles said:

The BBC are about to enrage the Tory party even more

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B4xF-U-IYAAtQOZ.png

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, it's a basic matter of fairness, as is the need for an English Parliament.

FrancisUrquhart said:

The Ukip activist picked last week to fight a key Parliamentary seat made homophobic, racist and obscene comments and accused Nigel Farage of corruption, it was revealed last night.

In tape-recorded phone calls leaked to The Mail on Sunday, Kerry Smith, chosen to fight Ukip target seat of Basildon South in Essex:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2872943/Farage-s-golden-boy-s-rant-pooftahs-Chigwell-Peasants-Chinky-bird-Astonishing-leaked-phone-calls-expose-outbursts-Ukip-man-sent-replace-Neil-Hamilton.html

MarqueeMark said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

The Ukip activist picked last week to fight a key Parliamentary seat made homophobic, racist and obscene comments and accused Nigel Farage of corruption, it was revealed last night.

In tape-recorded phone calls leaked to The Mail on Sunday, Kerry Smith, chosen to fight Ukip target seat of Basildon South in Essex:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2872943/Farage-s-golden-boy-s-rant-pooftahs-Chigwell-Peasants-Chinky-bird-Astonishing-leaked-phone-calls-expose-outbursts-Ukip-man-sent-replace-Neil-Hamilton.html

UKIP doing fine, until they open their mouths. The Neo-Nasty Party indeed.

Luckyguy1983 said:

@Socrates Following our recent discussion, you may find the following article on the USA's worldwide democracy promotion efforts interesting. http://nsnbc.me/2014/12/13/usaid-exposed-cuba-tells-us-us-subversion-worldwide/

At least it will give you an idea of what I'm talking about - no mainstream Western publication is going to cover this stuff.

TheScreamingEagles said:

MarqueeMark said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

The Ukip activist picked last week to fight a key Parliamentary seat made homophobic, racist and obscene comments and accused Nigel Farage of corruption, it was revealed last night.

In tape-recorded phone calls leaked to The Mail on Sunday, Kerry Smith, chosen to fight Ukip target seat of Basildon South in Essex:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2872943/Farage-s-golden-boy-s-rant-pooftahs-Chigwell-Peasants-Chinky-bird-Astonishing-leaked-phone-calls-expose-outbursts-Ukip-man-sent-replace-Neil-Hamilton.html

UKIP doing fine, until they open their mouths. The Neo-Nasty Party indeed.

And to think the Kippers had a go at me for doing a thread on polling saying UKIP are more likely to have candidates with racist or offensive views than other political parties

TheScreamingEagles said:

MarqueeMark said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

The Ukip activist picked last week to fight a key Parliamentary seat made homophobic, racist and obscene comments and accused Nigel Farage of corruption, it was revealed last night.

In tape-recorded phone calls leaked to The Mail on Sunday, Kerry Smith, chosen to fight Ukip target seat of Basildon South in Essex:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2872943/Farage-s-golden-boy-s-rant-pooftahs-Chigwell-Peasants-Chinky-bird-Astonishing-leaked-phone-calls-expose-outbursts-Ukip-man-sent-replace-Neil-Hamilton.html

UKIP doing fine, until they open their mouths. The Neo-Nasty Party indeed.

And to think the Kippers had a go at me for doing a thread on polling saying UKIP are more likely to have candidates with racist or offensive views than other political parties

stjohn said:

TSE.

Thanks. Can you link to just the headline figures?

Artist said:

I can't see how Kerry Smith can stay as UKIP's PPC after that, they'd be more or less writing off their chances in the seat if they don't replace him. If they get a proper candidate in, people will have forgotten about all these shenanigans by the time of the election. I don't see why the choice is just Hamilton or Smith, they have plenty of Essex councillors.

Plato said:

OT I generally dislike U2, but a couple of their tracks are appealing - Sunday Bloody Sunday and Desire [a cover IIRC].

What made them so popular? I'm very fond of Latino and some covers are much better than the originals. As ever.

Richard_Tyndall said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MarqueeMark said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

The Ukip activist picked last week to fight a key Parliamentary seat made homophobic, racist and obscene comments and accused Nigel Farage of corruption, it was revealed last night.

In tape-recorded phone calls leaked to The Mail on Sunday, Kerry Smith, chosen to fight Ukip target seat of Basildon South in Essex:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2872943/Farage-s-golden-boy-s-rant-pooftahs-Chigwell-Peasants-Chinky-bird-Astonishing-leaked-phone-calls-expose-outbursts-Ukip-man-sent-replace-Neil-Hamilton.html

UKIP doing fine, until they open their mouths. The Neo-Nasty Party indeed.

And to think the Kippers had a go at me for doing a thread on polling saying UKIP are more likely to have candidates with racist or offensive views than other political parties

And still your party continues to support and condone a councillor who said he hoped a gay colleague would die of Aids.

As long as that man remains a Tory councillor you have absolutely no right to claim your party is any better than any other.

I will happily raise this every time you attack UKIP over this because your continued hypocrisy on this subject is shameful.

I've said in the past he has no place in the Tory party.

Yep and then you try to pretend the Tory party is better than UKIP on the issue as you have just done on a previous post. I am not the one trying to take the moral high ground on behalf of any party like you are. I think they all fail on this issue. You are the one trying to pretend your party is better than UKIP even though they still allow racists and homophobes to remain as Tory councillors

TheScreamingEagles said:

CIA torture: Tony Blair and Jack Straw 'must account for what they knew'

In an interview with The Telegraph, Michael Fallon, the Defence Secretary, intensifies the pressure on Tony Blair and Jack Straw over their knowledge - or otherwise - of the US policy

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/defence/11292428/CIA-torture-Tony-Blair-and-Jack-Straw-must-account-for-what-they-knew.html

TheScreamingEagles said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MarqueeMark said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

The Ukip activist picked last week to fight a key Parliamentary seat made homophobic, racist and obscene comments and accused Nigel Farage of corruption, it was revealed last night.

In tape-recorded phone calls leaked to The Mail on Sunday, Kerry Smith, chosen to fight Ukip target seat of Basildon South in Essex:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2872943/Farage-s-golden-boy-s-rant-pooftahs-Chigwell-Peasants-Chinky-bird-Astonishing-leaked-phone-calls-expose-outbursts-Ukip-man-sent-replace-Neil-Hamilton.html

UKIP doing fine, until they open their mouths. The Neo-Nasty Party indeed.

And to think the Kippers had a go at me for doing a thread on polling saying UKIP are more likely to have candidates with racist or offensive views than other political parties

And still your party continues to support and condone a councillor who said he hoped a gay colleague would die of Aids.

As long as that man remains a Tory councillor you have absolutely no right to claim your party is any better than any other.

I will happily raise this every time you attack UKIP over this because your continued hypocrisy on this subject is shameful.

I've said in the past he has no place in the Tory party.

Yep and then you try to pretend the Tory party is better than UKIP on the issue as you have just done on a previous post. I am not the one trying to take the moral high ground on behalf of any party like you are. I think they all fail on this issue. You are the one trying to pretend your party is better than UKIP even though they still allow racists and homophobes to remain as Tory councillors

I've said it before Richard, all parties have fruitcakes, racists and loons in them.

My point was, as it was back in October, the voters think it is more likely than UKIP have candidates that hold racist/offensive views, then that harms UKIP.

Ditto Kerry Smith's now withdrawn comment about Farage being corrupt, only this week polling showed UKIP viewed as the most sleazy and disreputable party.

In politics, perceptions sometimes matter more than the facts.

Luckyguy1983 said:

Artist said:

I can't see how Kerry Smith can stay as UKIP's PPC after that, they'd be more or less writing off their chances in the seat if they don't replace him. If they get a proper candidate in, people will have forgotten about all these shenanigans by the time of the election. I don't see why the choice is just Hamilton or Smith, they have plenty of Essex councillors.

Good chance to put Hamilton in I'd say. I don't think he'll win, but if he wants it that much, and UKIP have been damaged in the seat already by this oaf, why not give him a shot?

Luckyguy1983 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

CIA torture: Tony Blair and Jack Straw 'must account for what they knew'

In an interview with The Telegraph, Michael Fallon, the Defence Secretary, intensifies the pressure on Tony Blair and Jack Straw over their knowledge - or otherwise - of the US policy

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/defence/11292428/CIA-torture-Tony-Blair-and-Jack-Straw-must-account-for-what-they-knew.html

If the Government is so keen on openness, why did it ask for (and one assumes get) redactions in the US Senate report on the grounds of British 'national security'?

The Blair/Bush era seems to be becoming a sort of 'dirty bank' -all the torture, rape, and unjustified invasions to be contained within. It's all bubbling to the surface, and can no longer be concealed, but if it can all be pinned on that era of 'Amurka', we can all thank our stars that it doesn't happen any more and look away.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Blimey

JACK STRAW, a former Labour foreign secretary, has been questioned by police investigating the abductions of two Libyan dissidents who say they were handed to Colonel Muammar Gadaffi and tortured by his regime.

Straw was interviewed as a “witness” by Scotland Yard following claims the British government was complicit in the rendition of the two men and their families. The dissidents, Abdel Hakim Belhadj and Sami al-Saadi, believe Straw authorised the operations in 2004 which led to their mistreatment in Libya.

The former head of counterterrorism at MI6, Sir Mark Allen, is also expected to be questioned in the same inquiry.

The Sunday Times has learnt that an initial file on the case has been sent by the Metropolitan police to the Crown Prosecution Service. A decision on whether to lay any charges could be made in the new year.

http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/uk_news/article1496023.ece?CMP=OTH-gnws-standard-2014_12_13

Scrapheap_as_was said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

I agree with both TSE and Richard. Perhaps I'm a lib dem?

The new pleasantly moist Tory party nowlgoeu will not accept any such low lifes - or piers morgan.

Someone last night was tweeting Mrs Hamilton's forboding tweets suggesting someone was in for a shoeing.... was it relating to the downfall of the 'a bit UKIP' looking Mr. Smith I wonder?

I bet you need to lie down, now that you agree with former Arsenal striker, Ian Wright

Ian Wright labels section of Arsenal fans 'prized w*****s'

http://www.independent.co.uk/sport/football/premier-league/ian-wright-labels-section-of-arsenal-fans-prized-ws-in-alcoholfuelled-twitter-outburst-9920315.html

Who?

A Mr G Lineker I remember from a while ago...a Mr Klinsmann, Messrs Falco, Archibald and Crooks... Galvin too and don't forget old Rick, he done the trick, scored the best goal you ever saw and now ....

Socrates said:

Charles said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

@Socrates Following our recent discussion, you may find the following article on the USA's worldwide democracy promotion efforts interesting. http://nsnbc.me/2014/12/13/usaid-exposed-cuba-tells-us-us-subversion-worldwide/

At least it will give you an idea of what I'm talking about - no mainstream Western publication is going to cover this stuff.

I read about it in either the NYT or the WSJ - forget which one I picked up at the airport. Both both are pretty mainstream.

Except the NYT and the WSJ didn't add on the ridiculous claim that the US was using the hip hop movement to "overthrow the Cuban government". USAID was building civil society in a totalitarian country, with the design of pressuring the government to reform and give people their democratic rights. That was a good thing and entirely legitimate. In the same way Luckyguy's anti-Americanism causes him to take a few talking points on the melting point of steel to believe the Americans caused 9/11, he takes efforts to by an aid organisation to build civil society and democratic pressure groups as evidence that the US is trying to overthrow the government.