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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Comres online poll sees the Blues up by 3 points
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Comres online poll sees the Blues up by 3 points
It fits in with what we’ve seen in recent weeks and months with other pollsters, with there being very little between Tories and Labour, the Lib Dems will be delighted to see daylight between themselves and the Greens.
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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-30466832
has been parachuted into Holborn and St Pancras.
Greens on the slide...
Funny to see Boris' rating drop in the 'give you first aid' question, given he has more 'super mayor' stories of involving himself in everyday incidents than the others. And that Clegg does so well in that category. Fluff question though it is, what about him makes people think he's at least just as worthy in that situation as the others?
http://order-order.com/2014/12/13/milibands-favoured-candidate-selected-for-holborn-st-pancras-rules-bent-to-get-keir-starmer-safe-seat/
So man your bottles, crackers and mince pies and flop around in fuzzy disarray until the new year.
It also shows why left wing voters won't back the Conservatives to keep out UKIP.
I'm glad I saw the rather good, if slightly long, Downfall prior to its parodies becoming so well-known.
Farage and Johnson bringing up the rear.
It would be interesting to see the male/female analysis of the answers.
Whether this will be enough to prevent a red-dominated bar chart appearing at the top of tomorrow's thread header, we shall have to wait and see.
There has been much talk recently about the extent to which this has fallen but in fact tonight's ComRes poll shows this as being 67%, compared with 65% in 2010.
Re. Keir Starmer being selected for Holborn & St Pancras:
Despite spending 5 years as DPP, he failed to secure any convictions for FGM. That's a serious failure IMO.
I have a number of friends who are from the Islamic world (one of whom left Oxford for a year to spend it in the conservative hinterlands of Iran),
There is a common thread between what they say about Turkey, Pakistan and Iran. In each country there is a liberal metropolitan elite that is out of touch with the country as a whole. Partly because it is perceived that the liberal metropolitan elite is thought to have the run the country for their own benefit, the countryside has 'rebelled' and become more nationalistic/religious/conservative.
Thinking about it, perhaps there's not so much of a difference between Iran/Turkey/Pakistan and the UK...
Regressives 51%
The nation is split assunder.
*Assuming others are all SNP/PC
A Liberal Democrat MP has quit as a ministerial aide over transport funding in his Eastbourne constituency.
Stephen Lloyd has resigned as parliamentary private secretary to the Energy Secretary Ed Davey over "vague promises" for road improvements.
He criticised the government's "utterly lamentable" failure to fund improvements at an accident blackspot.
In a statement he said he felt Eastbourne had been "let down".
A transport investment strategy announced on Monday did not include a proposal to increase capacity to ease traffic at the blackspot on the A27 between Lewes and Polegate in East Sussex.
I now realise that is not what you were saying at all.
I think all people who support Sharia law should go spend 12 weeks living under it.
I suspect very few would continue to support it.
I guess FGM is a crime where it is easy to know if a crime has been committed on a certain person, and less easy to know who to prosecute. But I probably guess wrong.
(I have shamefully little knowledge on the way the DPP and the CPS, the judiciary, and the various police organisations interact)
43% last time.. was in the 70% area 30 years ago
"I've been dreaming of a time when, the English are sick to death of Labour and Tory..."
So that's a no :-)
We will have 2 English seat polls out next week and the first Scottish polling post Jim Murphy's appointment as SLAB Leader. Stay tuned!
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/nov/22/nigel-farage-policy-eu-migrants-ukip-mp-mark-reckless
As an aside, left wing and right wing aren't mirror opposites in terms of immigration. Right wing gets used a lot with respect to immigration where as left wing doesn't, but I suppose those surveyed could easily enough work out that 'open door' = 'left wing'.
Kind-of-kidding but not entirely. For all sorts of reasons polls will be pretty pointless until well into January.
O'Flynn worked for Desmond at the Express for many years before joining UKIP and becoming an elected MEP.
O'Flynn according to reports was critical in getting Dirty Desmond to donate 300k, and the inevitable endorsement at the election for the Dailys Express and Star.
Could Dirty Desmond be the Cardinal Wolsey to O'Flynn/UKIP's Henry VIII?
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-ukip-leader
LOL !
There's no holiday polling variation.
The Lab share of the vote during the same period was 38,37,35
A year earlier, it was
Con 32,32,33, and Lab was 40,40,38
I prefer to vote not on the chap or lady who might or might not be a liar, but the one going to do best for the country, or more likely the least harm.
60 hours
Equally I would expect things to turn sour by the end of January when the Christmas binging starts to appear on the plastic.
The pay is relatively low.
Job security (whether as an MP or being in government) is not good.
The media spotlight is intense and often completely unfair (cf Brown with the letter in the Sun, or the yacht insanity of the broadcast media).
Job security can't be improved upon due to the democratic nature of politics. Basic pay could be and should be hiked. The media's the main problem. It's forensic, even obsessive, over nonsense, but fails to convey the most simplistic aspects of important information (eg how many people still don't know the difference between deficit and debt?).
I did like it when a few years ago, a OMRLP proposal actually became law, passports for pets.
David Cameron has been accused of an unjustifiable bid to “buy the general election” as it emerged that ministers have quietly slipped through an unprecedented hike in the amount that parties can spend during the campaign.
Before this week’s official start to the runup to the 2015 general election, the Observer can reveal that the Conservatives have ignored Electoral Commission recommendations and secured a 23% increase in spending. With the Tories having amassed a £78m war chest over the past four years, they can now funnel huge amounts of cash into key seats.
The change to the law on candidates’ election spending, passed without parliamentary debate, was made despite a direct warning by the commission against such “excessive spending to prevent the perception of undue influence over the outcome of the election”.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/dec/13/tories-david-cameron-buy-election-campaign-spending
Edit: Just checked, their last poll had a fieldwork of Nov 6th to Nov 13th
A second election in a year would give Labour and Libdems real problems funding it.
http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/Scottish-Attitudes-November-Tables_1_46.pdf
For years we decided that putting up with Thatcherite economic policies was a necessary price to pay to keep Labour and their loony left social policies out. However now the tories have bought into the loony left (Gramascian) agenda, its off to UKIP and if it means Labour win, thats just too bad.
Might as well have loony left idiots in power who have some compassion for the poor and unemployable than loony left idiots who care only for the rich.
Money = Free Speech
Theoretically it does have major betting implications.
"The Observer has learned that ministers changed the law through a statutory instrument, the terms of which were not debated in the Commons, and which is more usually a vehicle for consensual changes in the law. A Labour source said that the move had not been spotted by them at the time and so they missed the chance to force a vote in the Commons."
It doesn't speak well of Labour party organisation. And what were the Lib Dems doing in all this?
The Supreme Court held in Citizens United that it was unconstitutional to ban free speech through the limitation of independent communications by corporations, associations, and unions,[21] i.e. that corporations and labor unions may spend their own money to support or oppose political candidates through independent communications like television advertisements.[22][23]
This ruling was frequently characterized as permitting corporations and unions to donate to political campaigns,[24] or as removing limits on how much a donor can contribute to a campaign.[25] However, these claims are incorrect, as the ruling did not affect the 1907 Tillman Act's ban on corporate campaign donations (as the Court noted explicitly in its decision[26]), nor the prohibition on foreign corporate donations to American campaigns,[27] nor did it concern campaign contribution limits.[28]
The Citizens United decision did not disturb prohibitions on corporate contributions to candidates, and it did not address whether the government could regulate contributions to groups that make independent expenditures.[22] The Citizens United ruling did however remove the previous ban on corporations and organizations using their treasury funds for direct advocacy
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Citizens_United_v._Federal_Election_Commission
Though it shows how crap Labour are in not spotting in, and desperately need a decent legal mind in the Commons.
Huzzah for Keir Starmer
Many might also agree with this Saudi Arabian public service message :-)
http://www.maniacworld.com/women-dont-drive.html
Remember they are going to really put their resources into about 75 seats.
So they can spend their funds more efficiently than the Labour party who will be putting their resources into may be 350-400 seats.
Con 32% Lab 32% LD 7% UKIP 16% Greens 7%
The LibDims can hardly complain, after all it was they who prevented the overdue Boundary Commission's recommendations being implemented, thereby costing the Tories approx 10 seats net.
Yougov poll shows 26% think Lewis Hamilton will be BBC sports personality of the year to 9% for Rory McIlroy
You can still back Lewis at 15/8
http://www.oddschecker.com/awards/sports-personality-of-the-year/winner
Con (nc) Lab (nc) LD (+1) UKIP (-1) Greens (nc)
And I think we have to come down on the side of freedom of speech. It's simply too dangerous to disallow people from having a voice (i.e., say that someone cannot buy advertising time to promote their candidate), just because the consequences bother us.
Likewise, the rules on media exposure must be changed. If The Times or Sky wishes to pretend the Liberal Democrats do not exist, that is there concern.
Obviously the BBC is a problem, but it is one that can be sorted by simply closing it down.
Anyone supporting this, should remember in the future, that their opponents could well be the well funded ones, and then life won't be fun.