politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Comres online poll sees the Blues up by 3 points

First ..... again!

Hmm ..... mildly interesting, for a ComRes poll.

Keir Starmer had the rules bent for him so that he could take the plum seat of Holborn & St Pancras in the epicentre of Labour’s North London luvviedom. There was one small problem – he only joined the Labour Party last November and under the rules candidates for parliament must have been a member for a year. For a friend of Ed this can be fixed – Labour HQ delayed the selection process until this month, when Kier will have been a party member for the required 12 months. Progressive Prosecco for the Public Prosecutor all round…

http://order-order.com/2014/12/13/milibands-favoured-candidate-selected-for-holborn-st-pancras-rules-bent-to-get-keir-starmer-safe-seat/

In terms of right/left, people probably attach more weight to economic, rather than social, policies, which is probably why they rate the Conservatives as more right wing than Labour.

It also shows why left wing voters won't back the Conservatives to keep out UKIP.

Dr. Spyn, I wonder how many will get that reference.

I'm glad I saw the rather good, if slightly long, Downfall prior to its parodies becoming so well-known.

Actually on reflection, this looks like a half decent poll for the Tories - only 1% behind Labour and with a juicy 18% UKIP share of the vote to seek to lure back at the GE.
Whether this will be enough to prevent a red-dominated bar chart appearing at the top of tomorrow's thread header, we shall have to wait and see.

After his recent meeting with the political market maker at Sporting, Mike invited ideas from PBers on possible new spread markets they might offer at the GE. My suggestion would be the Lab+ Con percentage share of the UK vote.
There has been much talk recently about the extent to which this has fallen but in fact tonight's ComRes poll shows this as being 67%, compared with 65% in 2010.

Morris_Dancer said:

Dr. Spyn, I wonder how many will get that reference.

I'm glad I saw the rather good, if slightly long, Downfall prior to its parodies becoming so well-known.

He almost deserves a Downfall spoof all of his own.

Progressives 49%*
Regressives 51%

The nation is split assunder.

*Assuming others are all SNP/PC

AndyJS said:

FPT:

Re. Keir Starmer being selected for Holborn & St Pancras:

Despite spending 5 years as DPP, he failed to secure any convictions for FGM. That's a serious failure IMO.

When I first read this post, I thought you were implying that Keir Starmer went round performing FGM, but had failed to be successfully prosecuted.

I now realise that is not what you were saying at all.

dodrade said:

I'm a bit surprised at the Prince Charles score, he's always been pretty close to the Greens.

Prince Charles may be close to the Greens (and Lib Dems) on the envoironment, but he is hardly close to the Greens on economic and nationalisation policies.

AndyJS said:

FPT:

Re. Keir Starmer being selected for Holborn & St Pancras:

Despite spending 5 years as DPP, he failed to secure any convictions for FGM. That's a serious failure IMO.

How does it work? Is it the DPP's role to command the police to investigate things like FGM? Or can he and the CPS only deal with prosecutions brought forward by the police? If so, how many cases were given to them in that period?

I guess FGM is a crime where it is easy to know if a crime has been committed on a certain person, and less easy to know who to prosecute. But I probably guess wrong.

(I have shamefully little knowledge on the way the DPP and the CPS, the judiciary, and the various police organisations interact)

rcs1000 said:

WRT Turkey and Islam in the previous thread

I have a number of friends who are from the Islamic world (one of whom left Oxford for a year to spend it in the conservative hinterlands of Iran),

There is a common thread between what they say about Turkey, Pakistan and Iran. In each country there is a liberal metropolitan elite that is out of touch with the country as a whole. Partly because it is perceived that the liberal metropolitan elite is thought to have the run the country for their own benefit, the countryside has 'rebelled' and become more nationalistic/religious/conservative.

Thinking about it, perhaps there's not so much of a difference between Iran/Turkey/Pakistan and the UK...

Didn't see that coming...

Steven_Whaley said:

Who are all these people who think that UKIP is to the left of Cameron? I've only ever met one person who holds that view - a guy I used to work with who wanted to see a Labour-UKIP pact.

Voters aware of UKIPs policies on the NHS and spare room subsidy?

Broken sleazy Labour on the slide?

Eastwinger said:

Cameron to the right of Farage LOL.

Well he could be. He could be to the right or above or below or any other position that he thinks might gather him a vote or two. It all depends on what the papers are saying at any particular time. Cameron has no political principles, but his wife might have.

HurstLlama said:

Eastwinger said:

Cameron to the right of Farage LOL.

Well he could be. He could be to the right or above or below or any other position that he thinks might gather him a vote or two. It all depends on what the papers are saying at any particular time.

Something which of course could never be said about any other individuals or parties. Cameron is definitely unique or egregiously at fault for it.

My guess is that respondents were replying with a mix of economics and immigration in mind, which also happen to be the chief concerns of the people in the UK at the moment. It's the economic factor that brings UKIP to the left of the Conservatives.

As an aside, left wing and right wing aren't mirror opposites in terms of immigration. Right wing gets used a lot with respect to immigration where as left wing doesn't, but I suppose those surveyed could easily enough work out that 'open door' = 'left wing'.

Is is worth backing Patrick O'Flynn as next UKIP leader? He's currently 6/1 with Ladbrokes, and with major donors avoiding UKIP like a bad case of the clap, Dirty Desmond might become the dominant donor.

O'Flynn worked for Desmond at the Express for many years before joining UKIP and becoming an elected MEP.

O'Flynn according to reports was critical in getting Dirty Desmond to donate 300k, and the inevitable endorsement at the election for the Dailys Express and Star.

Could Dirty Desmond be the Cardinal Wolsey to O'Flynn/UKIP's Henry VIII?

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-ukip-leader

TSE, I note that you do not refute the premise that Cameron is unprincipled, you merely state that other politicians are as well. On the basis that they are all liars if one is going to vote for anyone then one may as well vote for a liar whose lies most represent ones' views.

TCPoliticalBetting said:

audreyanne said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Oooh - From survation

We will have 2 English seat polls out next week and the first Scottish polling post Jim Murphy's appointment as SLAB Leader. Stay tuned!

The Conservative share will be down. Most private schools broke up yesterday so it's holiday season.

Kind-of-kidding but not entirely. For all sorts of reasons polls will be pretty pointless until well into January.

I agree that we are close to entering the holiday season when the C share tends to go down and the Lab share up.

That's a myth though.

There's no holiday polling variation.

In the period Nov 13 to Jan 2014, the ICM phone con share was 30,32,32

The Lab share of the vote during the same period was 38,37,35

A year earlier, it was

Con 32,32,33, and Lab was 40,40,38

Richard_Tyndall said:

HurstLlama said:

TSE, I note that you do not refute the premise that Cameron is unprincipled, you merely state that other politicians are as well. On the basis that they are all liars if one is going to vote for anyone then one may as well vote for a liar whose lies most represent ones' views.

Which pretty much sums up my philosophy as far as politicians and parties are concerned.

Indeed, Mr. Tyndall, but we can all try and make some money betting on the buggers, which is why, I hope, we are all here on this site.

Final ARSE 2015 General Election & "JackW Dozen" Projections Countdown for this year :

60 hours

TheScreamingEagles said:

HurstLlama said:

TSE, I note that you do not refute the premise that Cameron is unprincipled, you merely state that other politicians are as well. On the basis that they are all liars if one is going to vote for anyone then one may as well vote for a liar whose lies most represent ones' views.

All politicians have principles and policies that change.

I prefer to vote not on the chap or lady who might or might not be a liar, but the one going to do best for the country, or more likely the least harm.

OMRLP then? John Loony will be overjoyed.

Richard_Tyndall said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HurstLlama said:

TSE, I note that you do not refute the premise that Cameron is unprincipled, you merely state that other politicians are as well. On the basis that they are all liars if one is going to vote for anyone then one may as well vote for a liar whose lies most represent ones' views.

All politicians have principles and policies that change.

I prefer to vote not on the chap or lady who might or might not be a liar, but the one going to do best for the country, or more likely the least harm.

OMRLP then? John Loony will be overjoyed.

John Loony saw sense, and joined the Tory party a year or so ago.

I did like it when a few years ago, a OMRLP proposal actually became law, passports for pets.

Alistair said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Oooh - From survation

We will have 2 English seat polls out next week and the first Scottish polling post Jim Murphy's appointment as SLAB Leader. Stay tuned!

When was survations last scottish poll?

Start/middle of November I think.

Edit: Just checked, their last poll had a fieldwork of Nov 6th to Nov 13th

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alistair said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Oooh - From survation

We will have 2 English seat polls out next week and the first Scottish polling post Jim Murphy's appointment as SLAB Leader. Stay tuned!

When was survations last scottish poll?

Start/middle of November I think.

Edit: Just checked, their last poll had a fieldwork of Nov 6th to Nov 13th

Mid-November in The Record.

http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/Scottish-Attitudes-November-Tables_1_46.pdf

Mr. Eagles, I'm significantly unimpressed by that move on election spending.

Mr. Eagles, if money = free speech I should sew my lips together

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, if money = free speech I should sew my lips together

Heh, it's a reference to donating in America

The Supreme Court held in Citizens United that it was unconstitutional to ban free speech through the limitation of independent communications by corporations, associations, and unions,[21] i.e. that corporations and labor unions may spend their own money to support or oppose political candidates through independent communications like television advertisements.[22][23]

This ruling was frequently characterized as permitting corporations and unions to donate to political campaigns,[24] or as removing limits on how much a donor can contribute to a campaign.[25] However, these claims are incorrect, as the ruling did not affect the 1907 Tillman Act's ban on corporate campaign donations (as the Court noted explicitly in its decision[26]), nor the prohibition on foreign corporate donations to American campaigns,[27] nor did it concern campaign contribution limits.[28]

The Citizens United decision did not disturb prohibitions on corporate contributions to candidates, and it did not address whether the government could regulate contributions to groups that make independent expenditures.[22] The Citizens United ruling did however remove the previous ban on corporations and organizations using their treasury funds for direct advocacy

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Citizens_United_v._Federal_Election_Commission

Before so people have an aneurysm, I disagree with what the Tories have done re campaign spending, and the way they did it.

Though it shows how crap Labour are in not spotting in, and desperately need a decent legal mind in the Commons.

Huzzah for Keir Starmer

TheScreamingEagles said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HurstLlama said:

TSE, I note that you do not refute the premise that Cameron is unprincipled, you merely state that other politicians are as well. On the basis that they are all liars if one is going to vote for anyone then one may as well vote for a liar whose lies most represent ones' views.

All politicians have principles and policies that change.

I prefer to vote not on the chap or lady who might or might not be a liar, but the one going to do best for the country, or more likely the least harm.

OMRLP then? John Loony will be overjoyed.

John Loony saw sense, and joined the Tory party a year or so ago.

I did like it when a few years ago, a OMRLP proposal actually became law, passports for pets.

Perhaps he could no longer see the difference between the two parties. :-) (I am actually pulling your leg there but it was too good a chance to pass up.)

antifrank said:

Aside from the main story, there's something very notable in that report on campaign spending:

"The Observer has learned that ministers changed the law through a statutory instrument, the terms of which were not debated in the Commons, and which is more usually a vehicle for consensual changes in the law. A Labour source said that the move had not been spotted by them at the time and so they missed the chance to force a vote in the Commons."

It doesn't speak well of Labour party organisation. And what were the Lib Dems doing in all this?

The Lib Dems may well have supported it.

Remember they are going to really put their resources into about 75 seats.

So they can spend their funds more efficiently than the Labour party who will be putting their resources into may be 350-400 seats.

I can't imagine that the giant unions will he holding back when it comes to divying-up their millions to Labour prior to the GE.
The LibDims can hardly complain, after all it was they who prevented the overdue Boundary Commission's recommendations being implemented, thereby costing the Tories approx 10 seats net.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, I'm significantly unimpressed by that move on election spending.

Oh it's fine, it's not the Tories' fault that people want to donate money to them and the other parties haven't got a pot to piss in.

Money = Free Speech

Theoretically it does have major betting implications.

Do you really want to get into the situation they have in the States where elections come down to who has the most money to spend?

Betting post

Yougov poll shows 26% think Lewis Hamilton will be BBC sports personality of the year to 9% for Rory McIlroy

You can still back Lewis at 15/8

http://www.oddschecker.com/awards/sports-personality-of-the-year/winner

Mr. Eagles, whilst I hope Hamilton wins it's worth reminding people that Giggs for some bloody reason won in 2009, when it clearly should've been Jenson Button.

Very tight now.

Richard_Tyndall said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, I'm significantly unimpressed by that move on election spending.

Oh it's fine, it's not the Tories' fault that people want to donate money to them and the other parties haven't got a pot to piss in.

Money = Free Speech

Theoretically it does have major betting implications.

Do you really want to get into the situation they have in the States where elections come down to who has the most money to spend?

I have thought long and hard about this issue. Because it's two friends butting up against each other: free of speech, versus diversity of speech.

And I think we have to come down on the side of freedom of speech. It's simply too dangerous to disallow people from having a voice (i.e., say that someone cannot buy advertising time to promote their candidate), just because the consequences bother us.

Likewise, the rules on media exposure must be changed. If The Times or Sky wishes to pretend the Liberal Democrats do not exist, that is there concern.

Obviously the BBC is a problem, but it is one that can be sorted by simply closing it down.