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Life after Starmer – politicalbetting.com

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  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,884
    My pet scheme as armchair CofE for raising serious revenue is to abolish salary sacrifice and discount the tax bill for desirable behaviours such as pension contributions:

    1. You get to collect NI on all the salary and not just the residual income after salary sacrifice
    2. You can set the discount rates separately from the original tax bands
    3. The discount appears as a gift from the government on people's tax bills.

    There must be downsides for them.
  • kjh said:

    My guess at what Reeves might do:

    Increase CGT rates (don't think there is any margin in the threshold which is too low anyway (sucks in not worth bothering about stuff currently)).
    IHT I can't see changing. For some odd reason people feel strongly about the IHT threshold and the rate is high anyway. Although people do think this is an area for increases, but I struggle to see how.
    Remove the last NI reductions the Tories introduced.
    Restrict pension payment tax relief to a pension fund to the 20% band for both DC and DB pensions.
    Starting point of 45% band of income tax reduced to £100,000 or introduce a 50% band at £150,000.
    Start the loss of PA at say £75,000 (but if you do, make it slower than currently, which is too much of a change, say a £1 for every £5 earned instead of £1 for every £2 earned as it currently is. This still creates steps in the tax graph, but it is not as brutal as before)

    I have not the foggiest what that lot adds up to, but it must be a lot and nobody would do all of it.

    PS And as a give away increase the PA.

    These all sound feasible, I guess whether or not the public find any or all of them acceptable is how "fair" they feel. Fairness being assessed as "yes I'm being hit financially, but not as much as those with far more money than I have, and in any case both I and those with more will still have an acceptable standard of living"?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    The system works reasonably well now with the banks informing HMRC after the tax year finishes.
    I hope so, though my experiences have not been very happy - maybe things will be better now as they settle down.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,760
    IanB2 said:

    Taking the longer view, the combination of ISAs and these various savings tax allowances has had the effect of shifting almost all savings income for almost everyone out of any liability for tax. Another policy feature that has had the effect of favouring the older generation.

    Why savings income should enjoy much greater exemption from tax (and of course never attracts NI) than earned or other
    forms of income isn’t clear?
    It’s specifically intended to tilt the scales in favour of saving vs consumption.

    The assessment is that saving results in capital formation which enhances investment.

    You may disagree with that objective or assessment, but the intention is clear

  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,509
    edited August 2024

    I shouldn't say this but I wonder sometimes how many people actually pay tax on their dividend income. They used to be paid net, no?
    I think you are right on your first sentence. Re the 2nd sentence - The combination of Brown, Osborne and Hammond completely screwed up the Dividend Tax. Brown really, but Osborne promised to put it right, but lied and Hammond put the nail in the coffin. Regarding whether it was net or not is complicated. Originally it was linked to Corporation Tax. Too complicated to explain here and now, but basically it was a neat set up to avoid double taxation on a business earnings. If a company paid a dividend it paid Advanced Corporation Tax (ACT) on it which could be set off against the Corporation Tax when it was due. Any excess was carried forward. The person receiving the dividend received a tax credit. They paid tax on their income including the dividend income, but claimed back the credit. You could claim back the credit even if you didn't pay tax. Brown saw this as an opportunity to tax people without them noticing, because by disallowing the reclaim if you didn't pay tax he saw an opportunity to tax pension funds (which people didn't notice). Osborne promised to sort this out, but actually didn't. He removed the credit from everyone and gave them a £3000 allowance instead. By the time it got to Hammond everyone forgot what it was all about and Hammond said £3000 is a lot, lets reduce it to £500. And a perfectly logical tax system was destroyed.

    If of course you get dividends from overseas this system still exists and HMRC still recognises it.
  • NEW THREAD

  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    People over state pension age in employment to pay NI even at a reduced rate of say 5%.
    Introduce CGT on sale of primary residential property. Again maybe a reduced rate of 10%.
    Reduce savings allowances.
    Reduce 45% tax band to 100,000 and spread the reduction of the personal allowance up to about £150k.

  • eek said:

    Don't think I've ever seen such crap advice in my life.

    Basically it would be impossible for things to change this tax year so don't stress about it.

    Any pension changes will occur from April 6th 2025 because anything else would be hell to organise. As anyone who understands pensions or tax will tell you..

    Literally the only thing you can change mid-year is NI and VAT..

    "As anyone who understands pensions or tax will tell you."

    Erm, I advised on taxation of pension schemes for >20 years. I'm still making use of my current and previous years' unused AA before the budget, just in case. Immediate change to the AA, and/or to the rate of relief, is not impossible, certainly in DC schemes. Annoying as **** to administer, but not impossible. I could write the Finance Bill clauses required on one sheet of A4 :)
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,012
    MattW said:

    Good afternoon everyone.

    Update from yesterday. So I tweeted out a request for baptismal pools (aka full immersion fonts) installed in Church of England churches, and by the end of the day I had a list of 25+ modern ones (ie post war) - below. Only 2 are from me.

    One was installed in a mining village near me in the 1990s. St Peter, Plymouth is an Anglo-Catholic shrine which did a huge building project in ~2007 in a deprived area about which a neighbouring Roma Catholic priest wrote a thesis. There's one near Tunbridge Wells installed in 1710 as a counter to local new (then) 'baptist' movements (it apparently has not been used very much - once on record!). And St Michael le Belfrey in York are installing one this year with an up-and-down hydraulic floor to guarantee accessibility for people who can't do steps as part of a major refurbishment project.

    My photo quota today is the baptistry at SS Peter and Paul, Hucknall, Notts - a local one I did not know about. It very much of its time, but the joy of church architecture is that the history of the community can be read for decades or centuries.


    List of some CofE places with baptistries. My 150-200 estimate may be low.

    All Saints, Huthwaite, Notts
    All Saints, Wellington
    Christ Church Chineham, Basingstokee
    Christ Church, Bromley.
    Christ Church, Gypsy Hill, London
    Church of Christ the Cornerstone, Milton Keynes
    Church of the Resurrection, Grovehill, Hemel Hempstead
    Greyfriars, Reading
    Holy Trinity, Norwich
    Portsmouth Cathedral
    Salisbury Cathedral – I think
    SS Peter & Paul, Aston , Birmingham
    SS Peter and Paul, Hucknall , Notts
    St Andrew the Great, Cambridge
    St Andrew, Goldsworth Park, Woking
    St Andrew, Walthamstow
    St George, Britwell
    St John, Egham
    St Mary-at-Lambeth
    St Matthew, Wigmore
    St Matthias, Leeds
    St Michael-le-Belfrey, York
    St Nicholas, Nottingham, Notts
    St Paul, Margate
    St Peter, Plymouth
    St Thomas, Newcastle

    Historically all fonts are baptistries, and CoE baptism is by immersion. This is the BCP 1662 text:

    Then the Priest shall take the Child into his hands, and shall say to the Godfathers and Godmothers, Name this Child. And then naming it after them (if they shall certify him that the Child may well endure it) he shall dip it in the Water discreetly and warily, saying,

    N. I baptize thee in the Name of the Father, and of the Son, and of the Holy Ghost. Amen.

    But if they certify that the Child is weak, it shall suffice to pour Water upon it, saying the foresaid words,

    N. I baptize thee in the Name of the Father, and of the Son, and of the Holy Ghost. Amen.


    Marvellous wording.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,509
    edited August 2024
    Carnyx said:

    AIUI it's notified to HMRC by the payer. So it's risky not to declare it ...
    I don't think it is. Savings income is, but I don't think dividends are. Happy to be contradicted.

    In fact thinking about it I didn't have to declare (as a company) dividends I paid myself from my company to me. I had to declare them as an individual on my tax returns, but no company declaration was made.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,760
    FF43 said:

    My pet scheme as armchair CofE for raising serious revenue is to abolish salary sacrifice and discount the tax bill for desirable behaviours such as pension contributions:

    1. You get to collect NI on all the salary and not just the residual income after salary sacrifice
    2. You can set the discount rates separately from the original tax bands
    3. The discount appears as a gift from the government on people's tax bills.

    There must be downsides for them.

    Doesn’t that mean everyone has the do a self assessment?

    The advantage of salary sacrifice is it can run through PAYE
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,915
    MikeL said:

    Mythical very well off person who has retired early at say 55 with £1m in savings. Not taking any pension yet.

    £500k in ISAs, £500k invested in other investments / bank deposits.

    Assuming 5% return, total income = £50k.

    ISA income = £25k, tax = £nil.

    Other income = £25k. £19,070 tax free (12,570+5,000+1,000+500). Tax = 20% * 5,930 = £1,186.

    So tax bill on £50k income is just over £1k.

    Yes, that looks like entirely mythical person. :|


    I don't like the idea of taxing things twice.

    If you've invested income that has already been taxed, I'm not sure it should be taxed again just because you didn't spend it. When you do spend it, most things attract 20% VAT in any case.

    If you have investments from money which you didn't earn, that might be a different matter. So perhaps only allow earned income to go in an ISA? No reinvestments and no inheritances?

    I would agree that 40% tax relief on pensions is overly generous.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295

    May - 3 years 11 days
    Johnson - 3 years 44 days (includes leap year)
    Truss - 49 days
    Sunak - 1 year 254 days (includes leap year)
    Starmer - 53 days not out

    So, calculated on a cricketing basis, the current average is 742 days, or 2 non-leap years and 12 days.

    Just under two years without Starmer's contribution.

    From Thatcher's election in 1979 Britain had three Prime Ministers in 28 years. Even with Cameron's six year stint, the following 17 years have seen seven Prime Ministers.

    It's a symptom of malaise.

    Ideally Starmer will be a stunning success and a grateful nation will give him a decade in the top job. But I'm not seeing it at the moment.
    Thanks very much.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,102
    How quaint...

    @oasis

    The guns have fallen silent.
    The stars have aligned.
    The great wait is over.
    Come see.
    It will not be televised.

    https://x.com/oasis/status/1828341740572479734


    No

    It will be livestreamed on TikTok and Instagram for hundreds of thousands of people to watch instead...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,690
    Trump assassination attempt
    Task force members here in Butler today, surveying Trump shooting scene:

    R-Laurel Lee
    R-Mike Kelly
    R-David Joyce
    D-Jason Crow
    D-Madeliene Dean
    D-Chrissy Houlihan
    D-Glenn Ivey
    D-Jared Moskowitz
    D-Lou Correa

    4 Republicans absent

    https://x.com/JoeKhalilTV/status/1828137939634921678
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,807
    Taz said:

    Morning Morris Dancer, yes it is. Especially when you have the judiciary deciding the value of each job. There are other claims too in a similar vein, Tesco and Asda. I expect they will be won too.
    It's disgraceful.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,807

    Yes - you need a positive vision. Pain, but for a goal, is politically sellable. It's all going to be shit for the foreseeable, on the other hand....
    That's because the intended goal wouldn't be somewhere people like.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,807
    Nigelb said:

    Any guesses ?

    QAnon conspiracy theorist/self-proclaimed "prophet" Johnny Enlow reports that Trump will soon receive the endorsement of "a major name star that has been assumed to be dead for a long time."
    https://x.com/RightWingWatch/status/1828151052761178373

    Joe Biden?
  • geoffw said:

    They want to avoid another Corbyn, never mind about Truss

    God forbid they have someone who can poll half a million more votes than Starmer.
This discussion has been closed.