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  • Sean_F
    Sean_F Posts: 39,132
    MD, be sure to include the starving peasants devouring a new-born baby.

    UKIP supporters see Cameron as the enemy within; Milliband as the enemy without.
  • Financier
    Financier Posts: 3,916
    Comres Independent tables:

    http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/Independent_Political_Poll_28_May_2013.pdf

    Cons: Men -7; Women -2.

    UKIP: AB: 13%; C1: 7%; C2: 30%; DE: 21%
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,801
    RichardNabavi said:

    Some sure-fire ways to go mad, or at best lose money:

    1) Take mid-term polls literally

    2) Believe that UKIP will get 17% (let alone 22%) of the vote in the next general election

    3) Try to figure out why sub-sample A in poll B is incompatible with sub-sample C in poll D

    4) Argue with a Scot Nat, except as an innocent (albeit cruel) piece of fun

    5) Take articles showing that Donald Trump has a good chance of being the next Republican presidential candidate seriously

    6) Try to figure out a route by which Boris becomes Next PM

    7) Try and reconcile the Westminster Voting Intention of the ComRes/Open Europe poll with the European Election VI by the same pollster.
  • AveryLP
    AveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Charles said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good evening, everyone.

    By Sword and Fire is proving most interesting, although one aspect did really annoy me.

    I was planning on calling the King of Felaria Philippe Valois. I thought I'd made up the last name by adding together '-ois' from Carlois and 'Val-' from, er, something else, but it turns out to be a proper name. Might keep it anyway.

    It's quite a famous real name, though. That old Salic Law had them rolling in the aisles.
    Elisabeth of France (also known as Elizabeth of Valois; French: Élisabeth de France or Élisabeth de Valois, Spanish: Isabel de Valois; 2 April 1545 – 3 October 1568) was the eldest daughter of Henry II of France and Catherine de' Medici.

    See wki page.
  • SouthamObserver
    SouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    According to my favourite Spanish website the French weather service is forecasting that there will be no summer in western Europe this year. Instead June, July and August will be cold and wet. The Catalan weather service says that's taking things too far; though the likelihood is temperatures will be up to 3 degrees below average and it will be wet, especially in August. Our lot gave up on long term forecasting a while back, didn't they?
  • Carola
    Carola Posts: 1,805
    SouthamObserver said:

    According to my favourite Spanish website the French weather service is forecasting that there will be no summer in western Europe this year. Instead June, July and August will be cold and wet. The Catalan weather service says that's taking things too far; though the likelihood is temperatures will be up to 3 degrees below average and it will be wet, especially in August. Our lot gave up on long term forecasting a while back, didn't they?

    'If you're going to Glastonbury, start worrying. Summer may be a touch cooler and damper than usual.' Times
  • Sean_F
    Sean_F Posts: 39,132
    Tim, I suppose the truth is Dave isn't popular with anyone.
  • smithersjones2013
    smithersjones2013 Posts: 740
    isam said:

    tim said:

    isam said:

    smithersjones2013 said:

    The Indy story on the poll:

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/exclusive-tories-now-more-divided-than-under-john-major-voters-believe-8635243.html

    Of course all those UKIP voters are coming back:

    .....Most worryingly for Tory strategists, the notion that the party is at war with itself appears to be growing. Fifty-six per cent regard the Conservatives as more divided than during John Major’s turbulent leadership in the 1990s, with only 23 per cent disagreeing. Forty-nine per cent of Tory voters and 72 per cent of Ukip supporters see the party as more split than it was in the 1990s.

    The recent turmoil also seems to have tarnished the voters’ view of the Prime Minister’s leadership ability, with 61 per cent doubting he possesses the qualities required to win the election outright in 2015, compared with 23 per cent who believe he has the necessary skills.

    Nearly two-thirds of Tory supporters (63 per cent) still have confidence in his leadership. But the opposite view is held by an overwhelming 86 per cent of Ukip backers, many of whom are disillusioned former Conservative voters who Mr Cameron needs to tempt back

    What do UKIP voters think of Miliband?

    *reminds me of the old WHU chant

    "What do you think of Millwall?"
    "SH*T!"
    "What do you think of sh*t?"
    "MILLWALL!"

    MORI May

    UKIP voter approval

    Cameron -73
    Miliband -50
    Is that because, although they disagree with him, they think Ed is more genuine in his pursuit of equality, diversity etc?

    Hmmm not in the version of the Mori data I've seen (net figure in brackets)

    Cameron -57% (-22%)
    Clegg -63% (-37%)
    Miliband -49% (-14%)
    Farage -29% (+11%)

    http://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Polls/may2013polit_web.PDF
  • RichardNabavi
    RichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    Financier said:

    Comres Independent tables:

    http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/Independent_Political_Poll_28_May_2013.pdf

    Cons: Men -7; Women -2

    Over to you, tim

    (You might like to consider points 1 and 3 of my previous post before replying)
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    RichardNabavi said:

    Some sure-fire ways to go mad, or at best lose money:

    1) Take mid-term polls literally

    2) Believe that UKIP will get 17% (let alone 22%) of the vote in the next general election

    3) Try to figure out why sub-sample A in poll B is incompatible with sub-sample C in poll D

    4) Argue with a Scot Nat, except as an innocent (albeit cruel) piece of fun

    5) Take articles showing that Donald Trump has a good chance of being the next Republican presidential candidate seriously

    6) Try to figure out a route by which Boris becomes Next PM

    As you are sure the UKIP bubble is going to burst how about this bet (slightly modified from over generous odds offered earlier)

    You can have EVS on UKIP <10% for £30 as long as I can have £10 at 8s they get >15%

    So...

    UKIP <10% I owe you £40
    UKIP 10-15 you owe me £20
    UKIP >15% You owe me £110

    You're getting 2/1 on under 10% if you think they cant get 15.1%

  • Neil
    Neil Posts: 7,983
    The trailer for BBC's documentary on Iraq keeps on playing Jack Straw saying "it was the French who forced us into the position of having to go to war" - dont you still want to punch him?
  • MrJones
    MrJones Posts: 3,523
    Financier said:

    Comres Independent tables:

    http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/Independent_Political_Poll_28_May_2013.pdf

    Cons: Men -7; Women -2.

    UKIP: AB: 13%; C1: 7%; C2: 30%; DE: 21%

    Hard to understand how that C2 level is less than about 70%.
  • SouthamObserver
    SouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Carola said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    According to my favourite Spanish website the French weather service is forecasting that there will be no summer in western Europe this year. Instead June, July and August will be cold and wet. The Catalan weather service says that's taking things too far; though the likelihood is temperatures will be up to 3 degrees below average and it will be wet, especially in August. Our lot gave up on long term forecasting a while back, didn't they?

    'If you're going to Glastonbury, start worrying. Summer may be a touch cooler and damper than usual.' Times

    Cooler and damper than normal sounds ominous for an Ashes summer. When was the last time we had a sustained, warm summer? Even when the drought was doing its worse we did not get a big heatwave. To paraphrase a prediction made a while back, maybe our children will never see summer, ever!

  • RichardNabavi
    RichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    Sean_F said:

    Tim, I suppose the truth is Dave isn't popular with anyone.

    At a dinner party last Friday, where several of the guests were Conservative supporters or ex-supporters including two ex-councillors and a former fund-raiser, I repeated my normal spiel that Cameron is the best PM, apart from Maggie, for at least half a century. Surprise and derision, as you would expect. However, when I pressed my point, no-one was actually able to contradict my claim.
  • Carola
    Carola Posts: 1,805
    SouthamObserver said:

    Carola said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    According to my favourite Spanish website the French weather service is forecasting that there will be no summer in western Europe this year. Instead June, July and August will be cold and wet. The Catalan weather service says that's taking things too far; though the likelihood is temperatures will be up to 3 degrees below average and it will be wet, especially in August. Our lot gave up on long term forecasting a while back, didn't they?

    'If you're going to Glastonbury, start worrying. Summer may be a touch cooler and damper than usual.' Times

    Cooler and damper than normal sounds ominous for an Ashes summer. When was the last time we had a sustained, warm summer? Even when the drought was doing its worse we did not get a big heatwave. To paraphrase a prediction made a while back, maybe our children will never see summer, ever!

    I fear for the Happiness Index.

  • Neil
    Neil Posts: 7,983
    RichardNabavi said:

    However, when I pressed my point, no-one was actually able to contradict my claim.

    Noone would dream of arguing with you in person, Richard!
  • Financier
    Financier Posts: 3,916
    Europe's leaders, rather belatedly, are recognising that youth unemployment threatens the entire European project.

    At a conference in Paris on Tuesday, organised by the Berggruen Institute on Governance, fear and warnings flowed from every speech.

    Jacques Attali, a French economist and former adviser to the late president Francois Mitterrand, warned of a Europe in danger of "falling asleep", of young people being excluded from a changing world.

    It was a theme echoed by the French President, Francois Hollande, who spoke of a Europe wracked by doubt, wondering whether Europe has any meaning at all. He spoke about hatred and anger, with citizens turning their backs on the European project. The very idea of Europe, he said, was being challenged.

    Werner Hoyer, the President of the European Investment Bank, said that unemployment posed a "real threat to the European project". It undermined the trust of a whole generation, he said.

    Several leaders, including the French president, said that progress had been made in handling the eurozone crisis. The German Finance Minister, Wolfgang Schaeuble, agreed that, in relation to the eurozone, "I think we have done quite well". But he said this was not enough, otherwise, "we will lose the struggle for EU unity".

    In this climate there is now a whole raft of ideas and schemes about how to get Europe working again. All of this is building towards a summit on 28 June, which the French Finance Minister, Pierre Moscovici, said "will be a turning point in the history of Europe".

    Europe is setting itself a deadline to adopt a grand plan to address unemployment. Whether reality will match ambition is less clear.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-22689808
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,801
    Neil said:

    RichardNabavi said:

    However, when I pressed my point, no-one was actually able to contradict my claim.

    Noone would dream of arguing with you in person, Richard!
    Just to cheer you up, I've backed the Republic to win tomorrow night.
  • AveryLP
    AveryLP Posts: 7,815
    RichardNabavi said:

    Sean_F said:

    Tim, I suppose the truth is Dave isn't popular with anyone.

    At a dinner party last Friday, where several of the guests were Conservative supporters or ex-supporters including two ex-councillors and a former fund-raiser, I repeated my normal spiel that Cameron is the best PM, apart from Maggie, for at least half a century. Surprise and derision, as you would expect. However, when I pressed my point, no-one was actually able to contradict my claim.
    Cameron's problem is that he faces an election rather than a performance appraisal.

    HIs government may well outperform any of Maggie's but I doubt he will exceed her electoral appeal.

  • RichardNabavi
    RichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    edited May 2013
    isam said:


    As you are sure the UKIP bubble is going to burst how about this bet (slightly modified from over generous odds offered earlier)

    You can have EVS on UKIP <10% for £30 as long as I can have £10 at 8s they get >15%

    So...

    UKIP <10% I owe you £40
    UKIP 10-15 you owe me £20
    UKIP >15% You owe me £110

    You're getting 2/1 on under 10% if you think they cant get 15.1%

    But I can get 2/1 on 5% to 10% from Shadsy (which is my expectation) without the potential liability on 15%+
  • surbiton
    surbiton Posts: 13,549
    RichardNabavi said:

    Sean_F said:

    Tim, I suppose the truth is Dave isn't popular with anyone.

    At a dinner party last Friday, where several of the guests were Conservative supporters or ex-supporters including two ex-councillors and a former fund-raiser, I repeated my normal spiel that Cameron is the best PM, apart from Maggie, for at least half a century. Surprise and derision, as you would expect. However, when I pressed my point, no-one was actually able to contradict my claim.
    Were they still at the table when you "pressed your point" ?
  • RichardNabavi
    RichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    Neil said:


    Noone would dream of arguing with you in person, Richard!

    You haven't met my dinner-party companions!
  • Neil
    Neil Posts: 7,983
    TheScreamingEagles said:



    Just to cheer you up, I've backed the Republic to win tomorrow night.

    Are they going to start at 0-0 or will they pick up where the last game left off with Ireland 1-0 up?
  • Carola
    Carola Posts: 1,805
    RichardNabavi said:

    Sean_F said:

    Tim, I suppose the truth is Dave isn't popular with anyone.

    At a dinner party last Friday, where several of the guests were Conservative supporters or ex-supporters including two ex-councillors and a former fund-raiser, I repeated my normal spiel that Cameron is the best PM, apart from Maggie, for at least half a century. Surprise and derision, as you would expect. However, when I pressed my point, no-one was actually able to contradict my claim.
    Sounds like a gals night out I went on the other week, where one friend was explaining away (yet again) the various failings of her boyfriend. We all know he's a complete c0ck, but she loves him, so what can we do? We'll just have to make sure we're there to help her pick up the pieces when she comes to her senses.
  • Roger
    Roger Posts: 20,744
    edited May 2013
    I heard an ex BNP person on the Channel 4 News describe UKIP as a party set firmly in the 50's which demonizes unmarried mothers women wearing trousers people on benefits....an ultra conservative party which hankers after the Enoch Powell era.....

    If he's got them right how hideous is that?

    (It's near the end)

    http://www.channel4.com/news/catch-up/
  • Neil
    Neil Posts: 7,983
    RichardNabavi said:



    You haven't met my dinner-party companions!

    You should stick to the company of PB Tories, Richard. The worst thing we'd ever do is put you on the last train to Bournemouth.
  • RichardNabavi
    RichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    AveryLP said:

    Cameron's problem is that he faces an election rather than a performance appraisal.

    True enough. I am rebalancing my portfolio with that point in mind.
  • RodCrosby
    RodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Labour are going to lose the popular vote in 2015...
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,801
    Neil said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:



    Just to cheer you up, I've backed the Republic to win tomorrow night.

    Are they going to start at 0-0 or will they pick up where the last game left off with Ireland 1-0 up?
    Yes, well according to Ladbrokes money back if Ireland score first market

    http://www.ladbrokes.com/tc/roi/
  • RichardNabavi
    RichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    Neil said:

    You should stick to the company of PB Tories, Richard. The worst thing we'd ever do is put you on the last train to Bournemouth.

    Good point. That would have been less expensive than the wine bill for last Friday.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,801
    Neil said:

    RichardNabavi said:



    You haven't met my dinner-party companions!

    You should stick to the company of PB Tories, Richard. The worst thing we'd ever do is put you on the last train to Bournemouth.
    Poor JohnO, you're a terrible influence.

    I hope at the next PB meet someone makes sure JohnO gets home safely, unless you're all dazzled by my footwear.
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    RichardNabavi said:

    isam said:


    As you are sure the UKIP bubble is going to burst how about this bet (slightly modified from over generous odds offered earlier)



    You can have EVS on UKIP <10% for £30 as long as I can have £10 at 8s they get >15%

    So...

    UKIP <10% I owe you £40
    UKIP 10-15 you owe me £20
    UKIP >15% You owe me £110

    You're getting 2/1 on under 10% if you think they cant get 15.1%

    But I can get 2/1 on 5% to 10% from Shadsy (which is my expectation) without the potential liability on 15%+

    Fair enough
  • Roger
    Roger Posts: 20,744
    edited May 2013
    @RichardN

    "I repeated my normal spiel that Cameron is the best PM, apart from Maggie, for at least half a century."

    You should have told them the one about the near perfect chancellor. That would've had them rolling on the floor
  • RichardNabavi
    RichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    Roger said:


    You should have told them the one about the near perfect chancellor. That would've had them rolling on the floor

    No, everyone who is informed on the matter already agrees with that.
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    BBC News reporter

    "This part of Kenya was a known departure point for jihadists travelling to Somalia, so what was one of the Woolwich suspects doing here?"

    Had enough of Marbella?
  • RichardNabavi
    RichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    tim said:

    The equivalent of Richard talking about Dave at a dinner party is a chant of "And it's Luton Town,Luton Town FC, we're by far the greatest team,the world has ever seen"

    Actually the response was quite interesting. The groupthink was that Dave is useless, as it is here and in the media. But when you ask why exactly people think that, despite all the evidence to the contrary, they are stumped.

    Whether reality will trump groupthink in time for the next GE remains to be seen.
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Latest German opinion poll puts parties below 5% on 14% collectively, which means only just over 43% would be required for a majority:

    http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/index.htm
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    Roger said:

    I heard an ex BNP person on the Channel 4 News describe UKIP as a party set firmly in the 50's which demonizes unmarried mothers women wearing trousers people on benefits....an ultra conservative party which hankers after the Enoch Powell era.....

    If he's got them right how hideous is that? (It's near the end)

    http://www.channel4.com/news/catch-up/


    He's just bitter cos they won't let him join!

    Yeah I reckon he's got it spot on, a voice of authority...

    Especially the bit about ukip wanting black and white tv brought back...

    That's the BNP in him, everything's about black and white to these people

    Maybe you could be onto something with the Hitler/Farage comparison too?! #GodwinsLaw


  • AveryLP
    AveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited May 2013
    RichardNabavi said:

    tim said:

    The equivalent of Richard talking about Dave at a dinner party is a chant of "And it's Luton Town,Luton Town FC, we're by far the greatest team,the world has ever seen"

    Actually the response was quite interesting. The groupthink was that Dave is useless, as it is here and in the media. But when you ask why exactly people think that, despite all the evidence to the contrary, they are stumped.

    Whether reality will trump groupthink in time for the next GE remains to be seen.
    Oxford is the problem, Richard.

    It is the culture that you can lead just by being right that is Cameron's weakness.

    Then add the (much lesser) impact of Eton and you believe that you are an officer: you don't need to bark at your troops nor get them to march in formation. You just take their salute.

    But the upside is that, for all tim's messing around, Dave will never be hated like Maggie. Results may gain him enough respect and tolerance to continue as PM in coalition after 2015.

    Cameron is essentially a staff not a field general.

  • AveryLP
    AveryLP Posts: 7,815
    isam said:

    Roger said:

    I heard an ex BNP person on the Channel 4 News describe UKIP as a party set firmly in the 50's which demonizes unmarried mothers women wearing trousers people on benefits....an ultra conservative party which hankers after the Enoch Powell era.....

    If he's got them right how hideous is that? (It's near the end)

    http://www.channel4.com/news/catch-up/


    He's just bitter cos they won't let him join!

    Yeah I reckon he's got it spot on, a voice of authority...

    Especially the bit about ukip wanting black and white tv brought back...

    That's the BNP in him, everything's about black and white to these people

    Maybe you could be onto something with the Hitler/Farage comparison too?! #GodwinsLaw


    Alan Sked says it all in the Guardian article linked by Richard Tyndall.

    The irony is that, setting aside the leadership history and accusations of 'sour grapes', Sked probably articulates a much closer vision of what RT would like UKIP to be than Farage,

  • MrJones
    MrJones Posts: 3,523
    There was a court case a while back involving a nationalist party in Germany where it came out 30% of the full-time staff were working for the government.
  • RichardNabavi
    RichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    edited May 2013
    AveryLP said:


    Oxford is the problem, Richard.

    It is the culture that you can lead just by being right that is Cameron's weakness.

    I think the second of those points is right. However, I don't think you can blame it on Oxford; after all, Tony Blair (St John's, 1972-1975) is the world's leading exponent of the opposite theory, namely that the role of a PM is all about presentation, with zero weight given to actually governing well.
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Here's one of my favourite songs from Daft Punk's new album, Random Access Memories.

    It's called Instant Crush:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O9BK3xcRH1g
  • Charles
    Charles Posts: 35,758
    AveryLP said:

    Charles said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good evening, everyone.

    By Sword and Fire is proving most interesting, although one aspect did really annoy me.

    I was planning on calling the King of Felaria Philippe Valois. I thought I'd made up the last name by adding together '-ois' from Carlois and 'Val-' from, er, something else, but it turns out to be a proper name. Might keep it anyway.

    It's quite a famous real name, though. That old Salic Law had them rolling in the aisles.
    Elisabeth of France (also known as Elizabeth of Valois; French: Élisabeth de France or Élisabeth de Valois, Spanish: Isabel de Valois; 2 April 1545 – 3 October 1568) was the eldest daughter of Henry II of France and Catherine de' Medici.

    See wki page.
    My apologies. Was muddling up Philippe Capet and Philippe Valois. Silly mistake.
  • AveryLP
    AveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited May 2013
    RichardNabavi said:

    AveryLP said:


    Oxford is the problem, Richard.

    It is the culture that you can lead just by being right that is Cameron's weakness.

    I think the second of those points is right. However, I don't think you can blame it on Oxford; after all, Tony Blair (St John's, 1972-1975) is the world's leading exponent of the opposite theory, namely that the role of a PM is all about presentation, with zero weight given to actually governing well.

    You are right about Tony Blair. But isn't he the exception rather than the rule?
  • Charles
    Charles Posts: 35,758
    SouthamObserver said:

    When was the last time we had a sustained, warm summer?

    Last summer. View of the Pacific from the window was great.

    *smirks like SeanT for a moment*
  • Charles
    Charles Posts: 35,758
    Carola said:

    RichardNabavi said:

    Sean_F said:

    Tim, I suppose the truth is Dave isn't popular with anyone.

    At a dinner party last Friday, where several of the guests were Conservative supporters or ex-supporters including two ex-councillors and a former fund-raiser, I repeated my normal spiel that Cameron is the best PM, apart from Maggie, for at least half a century. Surprise and derision, as you would expect. However, when I pressed my point, no-one was actually able to contradict my claim.
    Sounds like a gals night out I went on the other week, where one friend was explaining away (yet again) the various failings of her boyfriend. We all know he's a complete c0ck, but she loves him, so what can we do? We'll just have to make sure we're there to help her pick up the pieces when she comes to her senses.
    LOL!
  • RichardNabavi
    RichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    AveryLP said:


    You are right about Tony Blair. But isn't he the exception rather than the rule?

    Unfortunately there haven't been enough non-Oxford PMs to provide the kind of statistically-significant sample that one could ask a pointy-head from Cambridge to evaluate.
  • AveryLP
    AveryLP Posts: 7,815
    RichardNabavi said:

    AveryLP said:


    You are right about Tony Blair. But isn't he the exception rather than the rule?

    Unfortunately there haven't been enough non-Oxford PMs to provide the kind of statistically-significant sample that one could ask a pointy-head from Cambridge to evaluate.
    The Tabs all batted for the Russians!

  • Charles
    Charles Posts: 35,758
    AveryLP said:

    RichardNabavi said:

    AveryLP said:


    You are right about Tony Blair. But isn't he the exception rather than the rule?

    Unfortunately there haven't been enough non-Oxford PMs to provide the kind of statistically-significant sample that one could ask a pointy-head from Cambridge to evaluate.
    The Tabs all batted for the Russians!

    The King to Oxford sent a troop of horse,
    For Tories own no argument but force:
    With equal skill to Cambridge books he sent,
    For Whigs admit no force but argument.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,801
    AveryLP said:

    RichardNabavi said:

    AveryLP said:


    You are right about Tony Blair. But isn't he the exception rather than the rule?

    Unfortunately there haven't been enough non-Oxford PMs to provide the kind of statistically-significant sample that one could ask a pointy-head from Cambridge to evaluate.
    The Tabs all batted for the Russians!

    Ah but the real story is Philby et al were secretly working for us, they tricked the Ruskies into thinking they had defected.

    Why do you think Sir Anthony Blunt was allowed to work for Her Majesty.
  • AveryLP
    AveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Charles said:

    AveryLP said:

    RichardNabavi said:

    AveryLP said:


    You are right about Tony Blair. But isn't he the exception rather than the rule?

    Unfortunately there haven't been enough non-Oxford PMs to provide the kind of statistically-significant sample that one could ask a pointy-head from Cambridge to evaluate.
    The Tabs all batted for the Russians!

    The King to Oxford sent a troop of horse,
    For Tories own no argument but force:
    With equal skill to Cambridge books he sent,
    For Whigs admit no force but argument.
    I am not sure that is the right way round, Charles.

    Need to think this through!

  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,714
    isam said:

    tim said:

    isam said:

    tim said:

    isam said:

    To all Europhiles, I ask...

    'who would be better off, a Spaniard falling ill in Britain or a Brit with the same illness in Spain?"

    Which scenarios exist where you'd be better off being a Brit abroad in the EU than an EU non Brit in Britain?

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Health_Insurance_Card

    http://www.nhs.uk/NHSEngland/Healthcareabroad/EHIC/Pages/about-the-ehic.aspx
    Yes but the struggling EU countries aren't having it


    http://www.th-eu-nit.com/index.php/articles/2346-thought-youd-get-free-care-if-you-fell-sick-in-spain-britons-held-hostage-by-foreign-hospitals


    "Official figures published last week revealed how Britain spent £247 million treating Spanish citizens last year.

    However, Spain spent just £3.2 million treating British people."

    Link to the source for those figures and i might take it seriously.

    I didnt write the article I just read it.

    I linked to it before saying it was from an anti EU site so is it nonsense or true?

    I will have a look for those figures.

    Answer me this though, is it true that a Spaniard in Britain gets exactly the same NHS free treatment as a UK citizen while a UK citizen in Spain gets the same as a Spanish citizen? If this is the case then its obvious that your better off being Spanish and ill in the UK isnt it? Or is that not true?

    isam: all I know is what my favourite semi-expat, Tom Sharpe (of the Wilt novels), told me. He tells me he gets excellent health care in Southern Spain on the Spanish government. He may, of course, be the exception. And it's possible that his status as a semi famous novelist has got him special treatment. I would be interested to see the source for the statistic given the (admittedly only person) experience I have heard of.

  • AveryLP
    AveryLP Posts: 7,815
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AveryLP said:

    RichardNabavi said:

    AveryLP said:


    You are right about Tony Blair. But isn't he the exception rather than the rule?

    Unfortunately there haven't been enough non-Oxford PMs to provide the kind of statistically-significant sample that one could ask a pointy-head from Cambridge to evaluate.
    The Tabs all batted for the Russians!

    Ah but the real story is Philby et al were secretly working for us, they tricked the Ruskies into thinking they had defected.

    Why do you think Sir Anthony Blunt was allowed to work for Her Majesty.
    He was permitted to look at her pictures not her papers.

    He was more interested in Poussin than poison.

    Very few people knew and those that did no longer saw him as a threat.

    But then Blunt was inscrutable.

    I have read a lot about him, most recently Miranda Carter's biography, but no one can explain what motivated him. Homosexual alienation is the most plausible line but it goes nowhere near far enough.

  • GeoffM
    GeoffM Posts: 6,071
    rcs1000 said:

    I would be interested to see the source for the statistic given the (admittedly only person) experience I have heard of.

    +++ ANECDOTE KLAXON +++

    In Gibraltar we fly back to the UK for major operations which can't be handled locally and the Health Authority, which thankfully isn't part of the NHS, is charged accordingly. However some tests and scans will be done over the border in Benalmádena and Algeciras and the Govt/taxpayer pay the costs of that.

    I have to carry a GHA card which doubles as a EHIC and neatly duplicates all of the info I have on my ID card in a pointless bit of admin. That gets me through incidents such as a small tap I had with the car last year just outside Gaucín. My in-patient treatment appeared on par with the locals and there was nothing to really grumble about except their odd preference for family to bring you in food rather than them feeding you.

    They were, though, extremely keen to ensure that my paperwork was in order and up to date. I wouldn't like to imagine what would have happened if it hadn't been. Gib will charge anyone we don't have reciprocal health agreements with the full whack if you fall ill here and that's not cheap.
  • smithersjones2013
    smithersjones2013 Posts: 740
    I've just done a comparison of the average poll vote share from May 2012 polls and May 2013 polls (so far):

    Con 29% (-4)
    Lab 38% (-6.5)
    LD 9.5% (+0.5)
    UKIP 16% (+8%)

    On those figures neither major party can gain any comfort. The Tories should be worried that even after a budget that didn't repeat the debacle of 2012 they are still down another 4 points on average with there being no clear event to explain such a drop in support. Similarly for the lead opposition party to be losing so much of their vote share year on year again without a significant event intervening is not encouraging.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,801
    New thread
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Cumbria local election results by division:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dEEtMS1xOWltVDBHVGJ0RDVRT3pENkE#gid=0
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