politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » PB Nighthawks is now open
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » PB Nighthawks is now open
A great philosopher once wrote, Drop in, relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB Night Hawks.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
'who would be better off, a Spaniard falling ill in Britain or a Brit with the same illness in Spain?"
Which scenarios exist where you'd be better off being a Brit abroad in the EU than an EU non Brit in Britain?
Is this some new kind of Blankety-Blank game to play?
Edit: maybe not as Rioch wasn't the founder of Arsenals success. More like Georgie Graham digging out the 1998 team for conceding too many goals
He is a real man of the people.
If you are right, then Cameron's problems will begin long before he puts any renegotiated membership package to the electorate. The first (and probably most significant) hurdle any new package will have to clear is the Conservative Party. If Cameron cannot sell it to them he won't be able to sell it to the electorate who will then watch either the Conservatives tear themselves to pieces or oust Cameron in an internal putsch.
I think you are right in that Cameron probably wants us to stay in and I have always believed the Americans have made it clear to every British Prime Minister the consequences of a unilateral withdrawal will be severe. The ploy must therefore either be a) never to put the question of Britain's membership to the electorate or b) only put the question if a positive result is certain or can be guaranteed.
The same of course applies to a future Labour Government. Ed Miliband will only ask the question if he can be certain of the answer so there would need to be a sustained campaign to persuade a sceptical electorate of the benefits of continued membership (or the disbenefits of withdrawal).
I've amended the link now
http://www.th-eu-nit.com/index.php/articles/2346-thought-youd-get-free-care-if-you-fell-sick-in-spain-britons-held-hostage-by-foreign-hospitals
Some contorted third derivative post-Woolwich reaction?
You've wasted far too much of my time today trying to decipher your open Europe poll now you're publishing a phone poll without sending me the embargoed poll.
Grrr
This is "interesting".
Suggests Tories doing better, UKIP falling a little, Labour lead collapsing
Alternatively perhaps a straight UKIP to LibDem switch?
I linked to it before saying it was from an anti EU site so is it nonsense or true?
I will have a look for those figures.
Answer me this though, is it true that a Spaniard in Britain gets exactly the same NHS free treatment as a UK citizen while a UK citizen in Spain gets the same as a Spanish citizen? If this is the case then its obvious that your better off being Spanish and ill in the UK isnt it? Or is that not true?
I supose it could also have been a Survation style result confirmed by a different pollster? But again doesn't feel "interesting". That sounds to me like "It's all over, folks!"
That's why we get anomolies such as Scottish and EU students getting funded at Scottish universities but not English students at Scottish universities.
I still don't expect it to last but it makes the whole thing more interesting especially with so many polls giving seemingly bonkers results.
Seriously now - and I can't be bothered to scour the internet for sordid conjecture - does anybody know?
'Spanish public hospitals – and hospitals concertados – have to accept the EHIC. The Commission is currently in discussions with the Spanish authorities in order to resolve these problems.'
http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/travel/article-2275144/EHIC-Spain-Report-highlights-claims-Spanish-hospitals-wont-accept-card-treatment.html
http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/holidays/article-2320851/Getting-hospital-treatment-holiday.html?ito=newsletter
http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/holidays/article-2307958/Travel-insurance-illness--EHIC-covers.html
Cant find where they got those figs though... where do you think?
That he had to be married for the sake of his parents and his career, but in his youth, he often shared a bed with a guy, and swam naked with other guys.
There's no proof one way or the other, but he was in an era where homosexuality was a crime.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/healthnews/10022601/NHS-counts-900-million-cost-of-treating-EU-visitors.html
http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/holidays/article-2320851/Getting-hospital-treatment-holiday.html
After all, how do you square the possibility of homosexuality with his austere, strictly conservative, God-fearing public persona?
I hadn't realised he was married. I thought he was a lifelong bachelor. You live and learn.
Hi isam, the big meeting (conference really) is at Frimley Green on June 8th. Its a ticketed event, be prepared to fork out £20 if you want to go. I'm still thinking about it,'cause I got no wheels and its a bit of a journey without one.
EU migrants who work in the UK are classified as being resident here and qualify for free NHS health care, meaning that if they travel back to their homeland for health care they are considered UK citizens and the bill is sent back here to be picked up by the NHS.
I think he resented he had to hide himself from the world.
Have you not noticed some of the biggest God Fearing people are secretly homosexual?
These links should help re Lord Reith
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/john-reith-the-puritanical-founder-of-the-bbc-7175763.html
and
http://www.bbc.co.uk/historyofthebbc/resources/in-depth/reith_3.shtml
As for the poll in 3 minutes, I bet it's not amazing. Rentoul is hardly going to say it's dead boring.
But I can't find the link.
I genuinely thought I had misread the numbers, then I thought someone had made a mistake at comres with the data tables.
Lab 34% (-4%)
Con 30% (-2%)
UKIP 17% (+4%)
LD 10% (+1%)
http://richardwillisuk.wordpress.com/2013/05/28/new-comres-poll-labour-fall-to-lowest-level-since-2010/
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/insurance/travel/9960030/Holidaymakers-warned-as-Spain-blocks-EHIC-usage.html
As the main opposition party with UKIP splitting the right?
Un - f***ing - believable.
I was struggling to think what objection people would have to Ffion!
In addition as a resident rather than a visitor, the EHIC card lapses, so you need a different form, the E106 or E121, both of which charge the UK for health care in the Spanish NHS:
http://www.nhs.uk/NHSEngland/Healthcareabroad/countryguide/Pages/healthcareinSpain.aspx
Most of the health tourists that I see are Britons who are seasonsaly resident in the UK, often maintaining a UK residence at a relatives house, but coming here for free treatment. when things get expensive.
I've been reading (slowly, my lavatory book, my only escape time from the kids...) Nick Robinson's Live From Downing Street, hence the interest.
UPDATE – New ComRes phone poll out for the Independent.
Con 30 - 2
Lab 34 -4
LD 10 +1
UKIP 17 +4
As we can see both two major parties take a hit, whilst UKIP go up, it is Labour’s lowest lead with ComRes since September 2012.
The lead of 4% makes Ipsos-Mori’s poll showing Labour a lead of 3% less of an outlier.
Either way Britain is a lot worse off arent we?
(a) We pay Spain £247m for them to treat our citizens whilst charging them £3.2m for treating theirs
or
(b) spend £247m treating theirs while they only spend £3.2m on ours?
(a) seems more likely.. or does it?!
The lefties have gone very quiet.
Nick Palmer had better expose errors in the sub-tables quickly otherwise we might all start believing the headline figures.
Although I think it would be a travesty, I'm almost rooting for Labour to win a majority on under one-third of the vote. Could FPTP really survive such a result?
I didn't expect him to be proved correct quite this quickly though
I never thought the Conservatives were divided under John Major.
It is the narcissism of small differences again.
We're waiting for Angus Reid to get officially excited.
By Sword and Fire is proving most interesting, although one aspect did really annoy me.
I was planning on calling the King of Felaria Philippe Valois. I thought I'd made up the last name by adding together '-ois' from Carlois and 'Val-' from, er, something else, but it turns out to be a proper name. Might keep it anyway.
I doubt those having it large in Marbs, Ibiza & TonO'Grief are the type who have their EHIC forms packed alongside their swimming cozzie!
http://blogs.independent.co.uk/2013/05/28/a-4-point-labour-lead-could-mean-another-hung-parliament/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
The actual question was:
"David Cameron has the leadership qualities required to win a majority at the next General Election in 2015" Agree/Don't Agree/Don't Know
For reasons DavidL might explain, such a question would not be permitted in a court of law.
If that doesn't change, and there's no sign of it doing so, then Labour win - probably with a majority.
Tory/UKIP 47%
Progressives 44%
No enthusiasm among swing voters for Labour
No enthusiasm among swing voters for Conservatives
No enthusiasm among anyone but their hard-core for the Lib Dems
Growing enthusiasm for UKIP*
*Which I don't believe is any 'real' enthusiasm at all outside their own hard-core. Instead just a collaboration of Tory right-wingers, protest voters, naive believers in Cleggasm and Labou-supporting wind-up merchants.
How this growing band of un-ideological, free-wheelers and fickle-heads vote at the next GE will decide who wins. As will whether many of them bother to vote at all.
If I were Cameron or Miliband I wouldn't be at all concerned by a mid-term poll like this. Although Miliband should perhaps be a bit concerned that constant news about Tories versus UKIP is completely drowning out any news about Labour.
"82% more likely to die in surgery at the weekend"
Being discussed on Sky News Press Review now.
Apparently based on study with a sample of over a million ops.
[Edit: story appears also to be sole flash on front page of DT]
Ed wouldn't fall for that.
For many reasons but the Berlusconi experience in Italy probably stands out best.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/339496758105223168/photo/1
How does one interpret the signal of an inverted umbrella?
Do we know where George is on holiday?
I bet it is not Ibiza.
I would be surprised if it was anything different, just as people admitted at the weekend are more likely to die.
Most admissions and surgical operations at the weekend are emergencies, and therefore of sicker and more unstable medical conditions.
An emergency bowel resection for acute obstruction is quite a different kettle of fish to a planned bowel resection.
Comparing mortality and morbidity of planned and emergency care is open to these, and other influences.
I will lay EVS UKIP <10% at GE2015 if someone will lay me 6s they get >15%
You have treble my stake
**Actually, off that
But from the little I could glean from the Sky discussion it does look like a pukka report rather than a tabloid scare story.
Let's wait for the full article.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/exclusive-tories-now-more-divided-than-under-john-major-voters-believe-8635243.html
Of course all those UKIP voters are coming back:
.....Most worryingly for Tory strategists, the notion that the party is at war with itself appears to be growing. Fifty-six per cent regard the Conservatives as more divided than during John Major’s turbulent leadership in the 1990s, with only 23 per cent disagreeing. Forty-nine per cent of Tory voters and 72 per cent of Ukip supporters see the party as more split than it was in the 1990s.
The recent turmoil also seems to have tarnished the voters’ view of the Prime Minister’s leadership ability, with 61 per cent doubting he possesses the qualities required to win the election outright in 2015, compared with 23 per cent who believe he has the necessary skills.
Nearly two-thirds of Tory supporters (63 per cent) still have confidence in his leadership. But the opposite view is held by an overwhelming 86 per cent of Ukip backers, many of whom are disillusioned former Conservative voters who Mr Cameron needs to tempt back
*reminds me of the old WHU chant
"What do you think of Millwall?"
"SH*T!"
"What do you think of sh*t?"
"MILLWALL!"
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-2332152/Why-avoid-heart-surgery-Friday-Its-dangerous-times-year-treated.html
The study took place in the USA.
1) Take mid-term polls literally
2) Believe that UKIP will get 17% (let alone 22%) of the vote in the next general election
3) Try to figure out why sub-sample A in poll B is incompatible with sub-sample C in poll D
4) Argue with a Scot Nat, except as an innocent (albeit cruel) piece of fun
5) Take articles showing that Donald Trump has a good chance of being the next Republican presidential candidate seriously
6) Try to figure out a route by which Boris becomes Next PM