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This is what having momentum looks like – politicalbetting.com
This is what having momentum looks like – politicalbetting.com
NEW: Kamala Harris has wiped out Donald Trump’s lead across 7 battleground states, as she rides a wave of enthusiasm w/suburban women, young + Black voters.Harris was backed by 48% of voters to 47% for Trump — a statistical dead heat: https://t.co/9Lg4ZtMujH
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Of course, if Harris can sustain this momentum and Vance and Trump continue to spout mindless bullshit then the Republicans may unravel further. But the path remains narrow.
It's perfectly legitimate to be racist. Indicative of a failure of intelligence, of logic, of fear or of something else, all of which can helpfully be explained if anyone can be bothered. I began a reply to eg Leon yesterday but realised I couldn't be bothered in this instance.
I have been bothered several times before, however, and Leon, probably also by his own admission, benefits from when people can be bothered to tell him what an arse he's being.
@cicero should try that approach. Or indeed leave the site I'm sure he will be missed. Or perhaps not.
Oh dear, how sad. Never mind.
Equally, that will infuriate the Iranians and they may order Hezbollah to step up their attacks.
A far better campaigner than I remember.
Trump will have a mega sulk when he loses to her.
Vice President Harris: Donald, I do hope you'll reconsider to meet me on the debate stage. As the saying goes, if you got something to say, say it to my face
https://x.com/KamalaHQ/status/1818431471482282010
The big question will be how far this affects down ballot races.
July 20, -6%
July 27, -15%
https://x.com/Jemsinger/status/1818445807948910945
While shredding some papers this morning, I came across an article from the Bush days suggesting a flurry of late Wikipedia edits could be predictive, and on that basis, Shapiro has about a page's worth over the past two days; more than Kelly and Beshear; but Tim Walz is up there. (Although even as I type this, I can see Walz's price drifting on Betfair so someone thinks it is all over.)
Oddschecker shows 10/11 Shapiro in places but sfaict this is stale information and they have taken the markets down.
I'd say it's a toss up.
I'd put money in it - except the odds are currently a bit shorter than those available on Harris herself.
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris
Yet Harris now leads Trump by 2% on average in Michigan, Trump leads by just 0.2% in Wisconsin and Trump leads by 2.7% in Pennsylvania. So it is perfectly possible Trump could now win the popular vote but lose the EC this year, indeed if Harris picked Pennsylvania Governor Shapiro as her VP pick then on the Bloomberg swing states polls that might be the likeliest outcome
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/michigan/trump-vs-harris
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/wisconsin/trump-vs-harris
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/pennsylvania/trump-vs-harris
Holding the Senate is of course critical to making sure that when the older MAGA loons retire from SCOTUS (or snuff it) they aren’t replaced by mini-mes.
Or for that matter Sotomayer.
https://x.com/KamalaHQ/status/1818414386362409091
"Donald Trump is trying to avoid going to prison."
Biden was on 45/55 and heading down.
EDIT: either of Kelly or Shapiro would not be a drag on the ticket. Unlike Vance. The value of the VP pick in a positive, rather than negative way, is often overstated. Harris is in a good position here - a couple of good, solid candidates.
This is one reason why Trump was not only very shocked at losing but thought Kemp would just find him some more votes so he could claim a win.
Stacey Abrams led a Democratic machine that thwarted these moves by Herculean efforts in 2020, but she will need to be at least as good again.
That said, one unknown is how Kemp will react to Trump not only dragging his efforts into the limelight but then trying to have him primaried. He may be less eager to manipulate things for Trump than he was four years ago.
This is a honeymoon period. She may win but things will turn to her policies come September.
Last night was interesting. Didn’t show the site at its best, but it is a very contentious issue and little children being murdered is bound to be emotive.
However the term racism is somewhat Elastic. Eek and Bart were screaming racist at anyone who dared to disagree with them or their worldview. But that is a modern phenomenon and not just when it comes to race but also to other minority issues. Farooq cited racism when he left but that was down to Gaza.
I would say only a couple of posts at most were crossing the line and I doubt anyone here is a racist either. No one got banned. The posts the day the footage came out of the lads battering Plod at the airport was far more contentious and ban hammer came out.
People come, people go. Let them. The membership of any online group is fluid. As for why people leave unless they specifically say we don’t know. Some people simply decide why they left to advance their own hobby horse and project.
I'm sure all those Israel-critics who are saying they think Israel has a right to self-defence in theory but shouldn't be fighting Hamas in Palestine and should instead take the fight to the leaders of Hamas abroad will be lining up to congratulate Israel for what they have done overnight . . .
Coughed to check that a lung wasn’t hit. Confronted his attacker. Then gave the rest of his speech with the bullet still in him.
Then lost the election.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4800420-harris-lead-pennsylvania-casey-mccormick-poll/
Unless the candidate is penniless or a complete moron.
But it is still incredibly tight. If Harris can get a boost from a good VP choice (unlike Trump) and really deliver at her Party Conference (unlike Trump) it may become less so. But we are still in the land of maybes.
You also have to be able to debate - ie make your case, again rare on t'internet
Once you go into ad-hom mode shouting Racist or whatever you are losing. (When people do cross the line then they get banned)
https://x.com/sav_says_/status/1818420983797354598
Harris has a lot more energy and positivity in the way she speaks than was generally accepted wisdom 2 weeks ago.
Trump is flailing in how to respond to her so far.
And I'd suggest the tsunami of supporters signing up for door-knocking aren't going to have buyers remorse between now and early November.
I would have thought the salt vs sugar debate would make the trans/Israel-Gaza arguments pale into insignificance.
Suggest you look up some easy to access publically available resources like then one below before talking out of the back of your head.
https://www.opentraintimes.com/maps/signalling/sta
I have the feeling that Harris and the Democrats do.
Do Jeremy and the Independents coalesce into the pure purist party of their dreams?
https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2024/07/the-ultimate-2024-general-election-breakdown
So overall it remains close there
Given your very strange pronouncements on the MML and HS2 I'm inclined to say the answer to your first question is 'not a lot,' if I'm honest.
How many 10k seat stadiums did Clegg fill ?
The average house price in Redcar is £164,115.
The average house price in London is £693,969.
Guess which has had their housing target cut, and which has seen their housing target balloon?
https://x.com/tomhfh/status/1818413582314352735
Thankfully its every voter and not just the zealots in stadiums that choose the victor.
Equally thankfully Kamala's support seems to be deep and showing in polls and not just stadia.
If it was a leap of logic then point out the logic fail. I mean why bother is the only question but as we are all here talking about stuff it seems appropriate to do so.
And as we discussed last night, house prices in Redcar are extremely expensive and unaffordable. That average price is over 5x the median income of £32k.
A 3x income to price ratio would mean that prices in Redcar should be circa £96k not £164k. A 2x income to price ratio, which would be even better and what it was when some on this site bought their first home, would make prices £64k.
Cutting London's target is wrong. Increasing targets in Redcar or anywhere else* in the North is not.
* According to the ONS the only place in the entire country with a sub-3x affordability ratio is Copeland. Though even in Copeland its only just affordable at 2.9x . . . the rest of the country, even the more relatively 'affordable' bits like Redcar are 5x plus.
At the moment Harris is polling below even Hillary's 48% 2016 voteshare on average and well below Biden's 51% 2020 voteshare. However she seems to be polling better in battleground states where she needs to than Hillary did so her more efficient vote may see her home
Most of us through family friends and other connections know people like those being traduced and it isn't pleasant.
Its also a huge insult to TSE and Robert who have done an extraordinary job maintaining the site as a gem for informative conversation.
Yesterday's thread had a few really ugly posts and even worse the support of some very insideous 'likes'
The average house price in London though is over 6 times the combined salary of even a couple each earning average London salary
"and I really didn't like having to point out the racist undertones many posters revealed themselves to have last night.."
You, yourself, are full of prejudice against people who dared to vote Brexit because it inconveniences your rather privileged lifestyle with a place in France. You have made some extremely unpleasant comments about Brexit voters.
Starmer also got just 33% this year, just 1% more than Corbyn got in 2019 and 7% less than Corbyn got in 2017 even if it got him lots of seats as the right split between Tories and Reform
Looking at the track from the ground isn't particularly helpful in understanding how a complex layout like Colwich works, nor the usefulness and traffic density of the various routes from it.
A look at Whitehouse Junction (where the two tracks through Shugborough Tunnel widen back to four) and Hixon (on what you call the Stone Avoiding Line (actually it is no such thing - it passes through Stone Station on seaparate tracks where the platforms were demolished in the '60s)) on real time trains will show you that all bar a very small number of the large number of passenger and freight trains passing through Colwich Junction run through the two track bottleneck that is Shugborough Tunnel.
The site will show you that of the 27 trains that run south from or two Colwich Junction, passing either Whitehouse Jct or Hixon between 9 AM and 10 AM:
* 23 pass through Shugborough Tunnel and Whitehouse Junction between 9AM and 10AM.
* Just 4 pass through Hixon on your so called Stone avoiding Line between 9AM and 10AM .
https://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/search/detailed/gb-nr:WHHSJN/2024-07-31/0835
https://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/search/detailed/gb-nr:COLWHXN/2024-07-31/0822
Apologies for going off-topic.
As I mentioned last evening, the "problem" isn't just between communities but within communities as well with those who have been here for two or three generations and settled albeit within fairly well defined neighbourhoods struggling with the more recently arrived.
To be controversial (which I try not to be but based on my personal experience in East London), something has changed whether it's economic, cultural or technological. The incoming Romanians or Albanians to this part of London can live quite happily with only the minimum contact with other people outside their ethnicity. They have their own shops, businesses and hairdressers, I suspect they can watch their own tv programmes via satellite or cable or stream and they often live and work amongst their own people so they have only rudimentary English.
The one exception are the children who go to schools and learn English - if there's a positive in the current situation it's the next generation(s) will be more British and will integrate more.
People like people like themselves.
Even those who came here 50-60 years ago face the intra-generational challenges of assimilation. The second generation finds it easier than the first and the third easier than the second. Back in the 60s and 70s, the ability to insulate was much less than now. In truth, the older established residents of Banglatown see the new arrivals almost as strangers.
Yet immigration and assimilation has both changed the immigrants and the indigenous population - Britain has changed and evolved and however attractive the 1950s and 1960s may seem in hindsight, we aren't going back to that romanticised idyll.
If there is a recognition growing the economy and building 300,000 dwellings per year is a requirement and if we can't source the capacity to do this from within our own population, then we need skilled labour or labour to whom we can give the skills whether it's a plumber, a sparks or a chippy or whatever.
None of this has changed with the change of Government and if there are solutions, they won't be quick or easy. I suppose there's a choice - insularity, a tough immigration policy (one in, one out?), an assertion of traditional values and identity combined with heavy policing of some immigrant areas but with a recognition economic growth and progress will be sluggish at best or a more open approach where people come, work and improve the economy but with the recognition the social and cultural impacts of such a policy won't be uniformly positive and a cohesive society might be one of the casualties.
Neither option is attractive.
To state the bleedin' obvious, and as a quick glance at its content will confirm, PB is not just about elections and politics. It is a microcosm of society whereby we all benefit from hearing views of a wide range of people and hence I don't think it out of place to "discuss" racism when someone on here makes what appears to be a racist comment.
If you really object to someone's views then skip over the post.
Houses in Redcar are very expensive relative to Redcar.
Check the ONS chart. House price to income ratio in Redcar has reached a record high of unaffordability, for Redcar.
3x a couple's combined salary is extremely expensive and not what we should be aiming for, 3x median salary is the ratio houses used to be and what we should get house price ratios back down to. Anywhere higher than 3x median salary needs massively more construction until houses are affordable once more.
Everyone working full time should be able to afford a house of their own.
ONS Source: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/housing/bulletins/housingaffordabilityinenglandandwales/2022
Specifically Redcar: https://i.ibb.co/429VZ8m/image.png
The new government has confirmed two major changes to how the minimum wage is set.
Jonathan Reynolds, the new business secretary, has ordered the Low Pay Commission (LPC) to change its remit so the body must in future factor in the cost of living when deciding the rate of the minimum wage and national living wage.
The measure is likely to further blur the difference between the minimum wage and the national living wage - long reflecting unhappiness in the labour movement about the latter.
https://news.sky.com/story/shake-up-of-minimum-pay-calculations-comes-with-risks-attached-13187519
At least Reeves will be able to look at London as an excellent source of tax revenue as she amends IHT rules in Oct
Almost uniquely among our peers, Britain's economic activity is concentrated in one corner. It is not sustainable. We need new towns, or at least refurbished or expanded old ones. Transport links between them would be nice too but that's off the agenda.
If mothers (or indeed a few more fathers) mainly stayed at home with the children and did the housework and cooked dinner and dropped the kids off at school 1950s style while their spouse or partner went to work then 3x individual median salary as was normal in the 1950s is what we should be aiming for but that is not the situation now and that also inflates house prices
We have 3 million people working in the construction sector in this country. It doesn't take 10 people an entire year of full time work to build a single house.
Obviously the construction sector goes beyond constructing homes, but skills are mostly transferable as well as people being able to train in new skills if the pay is appropriate.
If both members of a couple are working then the second income ought to be able to go on affording improving quality of life, luxuries like holidays etc, not just inflate the cost of houses.
It is disastrous utopian meddling of the worst sort.
And towns (and villages and cities) need to get bigger across the country too.
Its not either/or, its all of the above.
I believe in supply and demand.
I would support ramping up supply until prices come down.
But if we start to find unemployment increasing we need to reduce the cost of employing people so that demand for labour increases again and people are not priced out of the jobs market.
Of course we want people on the NMW to have a decent standard of living, not least because all too often we as a country end up topping up incomes if they don't. But it is not the criteria by which this yardstick should move: it is a macro policy not a micro one.