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SystemSystem Posts: 12,683
edited May 2013 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » ComRes online Westminster VI poll

Following on from the release of the ComRes’ European Election VI for Open Europe yesterday, today Open Europe have released the Westminster voting intention poll that was carried out at the same time.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,894
    Good afternoon, everyone. I can't believe the Lib Dems are on 9.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,769
    Poll results heavily infested with WTFs, and Open Europe have a record of playing games with polling. Hopefully ComRes will have the detail up soon so we can see what they've done.
  • FluffyThoughtsFluffyThoughts Posts: 2,420
    tim said:

    Cameron Crosby and Osborne doing an excellent job of splitting the right.

    Articles hey, where would Wee-Timmy be without articles? Cannot comment on commas as much as the crude, crammed-posting, crumpet-cringer seems to cock-up common comprehension....

  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    This isn't UKIP's joint highest GE rating, Survation has had them on 22% in two different polls:

    http://survation.com/2013/05/survation-for-the-mail-on-sunday-reaction-to-the-woolwich-incident/

    Whether one takes that figure seriously is another matter, of course.

  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited May 2013
    FPT @tim
    tim said:

    @Avery.

    Wouldn't it be amusing if Osborne, the worst political strategist since Benn, not only cost the Tories the 2010 election, cost them the 2015 election by splitting the right and economic incompetence but also got his timing wrong on the housing stimulus so it kicks in 2015-6 enabling a PM Miliband to call a snap election after the fops have their heads chopped off by the backbenchers following an indeterminate election result.

    Even God took 7 days to create the universe and one of those was a bank holiday.

    St George has been sent upon the earth to remedy the damage done to God's work by socialists.

    He will succeed. He just needs time. In biblical terms '5 days' should be sufficient.

    And Tories don't need holidays. They complete the job, take the bonus and retire.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,774
    RichardNabavi said:

    This isn't UKIP's joint highest GE rating, Survation has had them on 22% in two different polls:

    http://survation.com/2013/05/survation-for-the-mail-on-sunday-reaction-to-the-woolwich-incident/

    Whether one takes that figure seriously is another matter, of course.

    Thanks Richard, I've amended my thread accordingly.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,113
    UKIP- CON gap closing.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,774
    I've made a slight change to the thread

    The Conservatives will be worried that their polling has slipped into the mid 20s, only six points ahead of UKIP, those survation polls with the Conservatives only 2% ahead of UKIP are looking less like outliers
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,774
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good afternoon, everyone. I can't believe the Lib Dems are on 9.

    Not that hard to believe, they are on 11 with the Gold Standard

  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    RichardNabavi said:

    This isn't UKIP's joint highest GE rating, Survation has had them on 22% in two different polls:

    http://survation.com/2013/05/survation-for-the-mail-on-sunday-reaction-to-the-woolwich-incident/

    Whether one takes that figure seriously is another matter, of course.

    One Survation poll might be disregarded as an outlier, two as methodological differences compared with other firms, but with this ComRes poll being the third that puts UKIP in the 20s one is left clinging to the fact that neither of them are ICM - but the last ICM had UKIP on 18%, so even that's little comfort.

    UKIPs rise in the polls has yet to top out.
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    OblitusSumMe said:

    UKIPs rise in the polls has yet to top out.

    I agree, and hope to benefit from it in betting terms by calling the top of the bubble as closely as I can. However, it's always tricky getting the timing right.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    However, it's always tricky getting the timing right.

    Especially when one is up against 'black swan' events like terror attacks and unfavourable news from the EU.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    RichardNabavi said:

    OblitusSumMe said:

    UKIPs rise in the polls has yet to top out.

    I agree, and hope to benefit from it in betting terms by calling the top of the bubble as closely as I can. However, it's always tricky getting the timing right.

    Some time between July and September this year is my guess, with a possible new surge just after the Euros in 2014.

  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    AveryLP said:

    FPT @tim

    tim said:

    @Avery.

    Wouldn't it be amusing if Osborne, the worst political strategist since Benn, not only cost the Tories the 2010 election, cost them the 2015 election by splitting the right and economic incompetence but also got his timing wrong on the housing stimulus so it kicks in 2015-6 enabling a PM Miliband to call a snap election after the fops have their heads chopped off by the backbenchers following an indeterminate election result.


    He will succeed. He just needs time. In biblical terms '5 days' should be sufficient. And Tories don't need holidays. They complete the job, take the bonus and retire.
    And just like the banks the economy then crashes and the state is left picking up the bill...
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited May 2013
    Oh là là

    Standard & Poor's (S&P), the gold standard of sovereign risk rating agencies and the only one to maintain the UK's AAA rating, has warned France that it may be hit with a credit rating downgrade if it doesn't follow through on budget cuts.

    S&P has kept a 'negative' outlook on France since it stripped the country of its 'triple-A' rating in January 2012. At that time, the lead analyst Marko Mrsnik indicated that the current 'AA+/A-1+' was affirmed on the “commitment to budgetary and structural reforms”.

    However, Mrsnik told Reuters on Monday that it remained to be seen if France can achieve stabilisation by 2015. “We take on board expectations that in the 2014 budget there will be additional measures that will the position towards smaller deficits,” Mrsnik explained, adding that S&P expects a mild recession this year and a slow recovery thereafter.

    No wonder we have sent the Duchess of Cornwall to Paris to speak in French. How else can Citoyen Hollande's shame be tempered?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Was the Westminster VI asked before or after the Euro VI ?

    Not getting worried until the biege standard Angus Reid comes out.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Latest 2015 General Election ARSE Projection :

    Con 285 seats .. Lab 275 .. LibDem 45 .. SNP 15 .. Ukip 5 .. PC 3 .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 1 .. Speaker 1 .. NI 18

    Conservatives 46 seats short of a majority.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    BenM said:

    AveryLP said:

    FPT @tim

    tim said:

    @Avery.

    Wouldn't it be amusing if Osborne, the worst political strategist since Benn, not only cost the Tories the 2010 election, cost them the 2015 election by splitting the right and economic incompetence but also got his timing wrong on the housing stimulus so it kicks in 2015-6 enabling a PM Miliband to call a snap election after the fops have their heads chopped off by the backbenchers following an indeterminate election result.


    He will succeed. He just needs time. In biblical terms '5 days' should be sufficient. And Tories don't need holidays. They complete the job, take the bonus and retire.
    And just like the banks the economy then crashes and the state is left picking up the bill...
    You have misread, Ben.

    St George was sent by God to deliver us from socialism not by Gord.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    The UKIP figure is much the most interesting feature of this poll. But it's hard to know what to make of this poll generally, for the reasons already rehearsed.

    Meanwhile in other news, I have just booked tickets to see Leonard Cohen in September.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    SeanT said:

    500 comments on my Telegraph blog in about 2 hours.

    Never let it be said I don't know how to shove a stick in the old hornets' nest.

    But you uncharacteristically neglected to tell us whether the hornets would enjoy that.

  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    SeanT said:

    500 comments on my Telegraph blog in about 2 hours.

    Never let it be said I don't know how to shove a stick in the old hornets' nest.

    Oh er Matron !!

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,931
    ComRes/The Sunil:

    Tory/UKIP 46%
    Progressives 46%
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    antifrank said:

    The UKIP figure is much the most interesting feature of this poll. But it's hard to know what to make of this poll generally, for the reasons already rehearsed.

    Meanwhile in other news, I have just booked tickets to see Leonard Cohen in September.

    Something unutterably depressing to look forward to !!

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,931
    @antifrank

    Hope you enjoy the Depeche Mode concert tonight! Would be interesting to see if the set-list is any different from tomorrow night when I'm in attendance.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Well deserved kicking for the Tories - not that I hold out much chance of them paying heed....perhaps they think fighting like ferrets in a sack impresses voters....
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    @Sunil I shall report back on any differences I spot from last week. Martin Gore finished his conducting of the audience in "Home" with the words: "you make me laugh every night, you do". So that's an apparent ad lib to watch out for, to see if he repeats it.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,384
    CarlottaVance said:

    Well deserved kicking for the Tories - not that I hold out much chance of them paying heed....perhaps they think fighting like ferrets in a sack impresses voters....

    Yep. Many of those who thought it was a good idea to undermine their PM on Europe and gay marriage unfortunately have safe seats.

    As they are generally muppets who will never be made ministers of anything it makes painfully little difference to them whether they are in official opposition or merely internal opposition. Either way more than 20 years after Maastricht governing the tory party remains considerably more difficult than governing the country.

    Given that the alternative is Labour this country does not have its troubles to seek.

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    @tim If the second is confirmed, there has also to be a reasonably good chance that neither will still be in the same job by the end of next season.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,774
    SeanT said:

    500 comments on my Telegraph blog in about 2 hours.

    Never let it be said I don't know how to shove a stick in the old hornets' nest.

    That's nothing.

    I have a thread coming up later on in the week that sees me poke two hornets' nests simultaneously and opening a can of worms.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,318
    edited May 2013
    SeanT said:

    500 comments on my Telegraph blog in about 2 hours.

    Never let it be said I don't know how to shove a stick in the old hornets' nest.

    You made an error (and were called out on it BTL).

    You said that homosexuality was genetic. The inference being if it wasn’t genetic then we could (and should) try to do something about it.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SeanT said:

    500 comments on my Telegraph blog in about 2 hours.

    Never let it be said I don't know how to shove a stick in the old hornets' nest.

    That's nothing.

    I have a thread coming up later on in the week that sees me poke two hornets' nests simultaneously and opening a can of worms.
    Only one can of worms and no Pandora's box - Dull City Central.

  • Gerry_ManderGerry_Mander Posts: 621
    DavidL said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Well deserved kicking for the Tories - not that I hold out much chance of them paying heed....perhaps they think fighting like ferrets in a sack impresses voters....

    Yep. Many of those who thought it was a good idea to undermine their PM on Europe and gay marriage unfortunately have safe seats.

    As they are generally muppets who will never be made ministers of anything it makes painfully little difference to them whether they are in official opposition or merely internal opposition. Either way more than 20 years after Maastricht governing the tory party remains considerably more difficult than governing the country.

    Given that the alternative is Labour this country does not have its troubles to seek.

    (Waiting patiently for bad puns on safe seats and gay marriage....)
  • chatterclass123chatterclass123 Posts: 9
    I don't see any problem with different VI for European and national elections. People vote differently. We already know that. Labours National share is about 39%. This bears that out.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,384
    Talking of Telegraph bloggers I really think Mr Hodges is missing a trick here. Surely Cook's inexplicable failure to declare two hours earlier than he did is bad for Miliband.


    It is that sort of hesitancy, caution and lack of boldness that will cost him the next election. By demonstrating the consequences Cook has once again shown that Ed is,,,not very good.
  • GarethofthevaleGarethofthevale Posts: 503
    Mr Eagles - Mike used to publish a table with the latest poll from each pollster. Are you planning to do that again at some point?

    It would be useful as it seems to me there is quite a lot of variability in the polls at the moment.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,769
    ComRes have the poll detail up:
    http://www.comres.co.uk/poll/929/open-europe-political-poll-may-2013.htm
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,384
    France's Central Banker states that the FTT will cost jobs: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/10084008/Frances-central-bank-head-warns-FTT-could-destroy-jobs.html

    Go figure. Hollande: another great call by Ed.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,619
    The equivalent of posting a pro EU link from the Guardian.... I'm sure there are holes in this story.... But is there any truth in it?

    http://www.th-eu-nit.com/index.php/articles/2346-thought-youd-get-free-care-if-you-fell-sick-in-spain-britons-held-hostage-by-foreign-hospitals
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    edmundintokyo said:

    ComRes have the poll detail up:
    http://www.comres.co.uk/poll/929/open-europe-political-poll-may-2013.htm

    If I am reading that right, of the respondents to the poll who said they would vote Lib Dem in the Euro election, more of those would vote Conservative than Lib Dem in a general election.

    A most peculiar poll. Perhaps there are more Pro-EU Conservative voters than popularly imagined?
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edmundintokyo said:

    ComRes have the poll detail up:
    http://www.comres.co.uk/poll/929/open-europe-political-poll-may-2013.htm

    Table 4, p16.

    UKIP (21%) outperform the Conservatives (17%) in Northern England.

  • isamisam Posts: 42,619
    antifrank said:

    The UKIP figure is much the most interesting feature of this poll. But it's hard to know what to make of this poll generally, for the reasons already rehearsed.

    Meanwhile in other news, I have just booked tickets to see Leonard Cohen in September.

    I only found out who he was in 1993 when Nirvana released 'Pennyroyal Tea'

    "Give me a Leonard Cohen afterworld, So I can sigh eternally..."



  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    DavidL said:

    France's Central Banker states that the FTT will cost jobs: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/10084008/Frances-central-bank-head-warns-FTT-could-destroy-jobs.html

    Go figure. Hollande: another great call by Ed.

    Fear not, in a couple of years' time voters will have an opportunity to vote for a would-be PM and a would-be Chancellor both of whom support the idea of wrecking the economy in this way:

    http://www.moneymarketing.co.uk/politics/miliband-gives-support-on-financial-transaction-tax/1039021.article

    http://robinhoodtax.org.uk/content/response-ed-balls-backing-financial-transaction-tax-his-labour-party-conference-speech

    [Incidentally that last website has a useful list of politically-motivated and ignorant charities that you probably don't want to give money to]
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    tim said:

    Labour lead among women 14%
    And ahead among pensioners

    Strange that a party named Labour finds its support amongst those who don't have to work.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Meanwhile, across the pond:

    "The 20-city S&P Case-Shiller house price index for March climbed 10.87% on the year. This beat expectations for a 10.2% rise.
    This is also the fastest pace of increase since April 2006."

    Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/march-case-shiller-2013-5#ixzz2Uapahdp1
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,931
    antifrank said:

    @Sunil I shall report back on any differences I spot from last week. Martin Gore finished his conducting of the audience in "Home" with the words: "you make me laugh every night, you do". So that's an apparent ad lib to watch out for, to see if he repeats it.

    Thanks, I'll look out for that!
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,769
    So if I've got this right part of the mystery here seems to be that the Westminster numbers and the Euro numbers are for different things: Westminster are 5-10 certain to vote, whereas Euros are 10/10 "absolutely certain to vote".

    If you've absolutely certain to vote in a European Parliament election a year from now you're either disturbingly obsessed with Martin Schulz or you've misunderstood the question, so these numbers may not be very reliable.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    MonikerDiCanio said:


    Strange that a party named Labour finds its support amongst those who don't have to work.

    I dont know what it's like in Italy but in the UK today women do generally have to work, Moniker.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Oskar Lafontaine calls for Eurozone break-up, stating current dynamic is a path to disaster:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/10039329/German-euro-founder-calls-for-catastrophic-currency-to-be-broken-up.html
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    edited May 2013
    tim said:

    @RichardNabavi

    You seem to be "accidentally" misrepresenting Labours position

    "I am in favour of a financial transactions tax but only if it is agreed in the widest possible realm, it needs to include New York as well as London, you can’t just do this at the eurozone or EU level, certainly not just at the British level entirely. "

    Ed Balls 2011

    Sorry, you're quite right. The would-be Chancellor doesn't agree with his boss on this one. (As you know, I've always thought Ed B is by far the smarter of the two Eds)
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    tim said:

    @RichardNabavi

    You seem to be "accidentally" misrepresenting Labours position

    We should all aim to follow your high standards in this regards tim.


    Looks like the FTT is a dead duck anyway - another success for the left...

  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    DavidL said:

    France's Central Banker states that the FTT will cost jobs: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/10084008/Frances-central-bank-head-warns-FTT-could-destroy-jobs.html

    Go figure. Hollande: another great call by Ed.

    Finance jobs? Then perhaps we should welcome the FTT?
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    edited May 2013
    edmundintokyo said:

    So if I've got this right part of the mystery here seems to be that the Westminster numbers and the Euro numbers are for different things: Westminster are 5-10 certain to vote, whereas Euros are 10/10 "absolutely certain to vote".

    If you've absolutely certain to vote in a European Parliament election a year from now you're either disturbingly obsessed with Martin Schulz or you've misunderstood the question, so these numbers may not be very reliable.

    I think I've voted in more than 9 out of 10 of the elections I've been eligible to vote in (not sure how many elections there have been though, 11 out of 12 perhaps?)

    The only time I missed an opportunity to vote was when I missed my train home from a business meeting, and then the train I did catch was itself delayed so that I didn't arrive in my home town until just after 10pm. I'd even brought my polling card with me so that I could vote on my way home from the train station.

    I feel quite confident about putting myself down as a 10/10 absolutely certain to vote, though I'll grant that 11/12 is closer to 9/10 than 10/10.

    Edited to add: I even voted in the Police and Crime Commissioner elections. How's that for civic responsibility?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,789
    edited May 2013
    The ComRes table that fascinates me is number 6. Apparently, among all those likely to vote Labour for Westminster (5-10 certain), only a handful will vote UKIP, but a third will vote LibDem and a third will vote Tory in the Euros. LibDems divide similarly. So this shows that Cameron and Clegg are making huge inroads with their European policy. Splendid work. Now move on to the first column. Of those currently planning to vote Tory for Westminster, 39% plan to vote Labour in the Euros, and 22% plan to vote LibDem.Only 21% of Tories will vote Tory.

    Eh???

    http://www.comres.co.uk/poll/929/open-europe-political-poll-may-2013.htm
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,113
    Lots of fun to be had betting on the cricket weather at Headingley.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2013
    There must have been some kind of mistake with yesterday's Euro poll putting the LDs on 18%. I wonder if anyone's looking at the details to see where the error might have been.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Finance jobs? Then perhaps we should welcome the FTT?

    Many jobs in and around the city do not pay mega-bucks.

    Yes there are a few greedy, massively over paid and reckless risk takers. That's undeniable and wrong.

    However, vast majority of city related workers are ordinary folk earning moderate (or sometimes good) salaries - and on PAYE. And if banks cut workers the ordinary employees will suffer much more than the already vastly wealthy traders...
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Labour's dynasty fetish continues

    http://order-order.com/2013/05/28/harman-trying-to-stitch-up-seats-again/

    Harman Trying to Stitch Up Seats, Again

    Harriet Harman is trying to stitch up a seat for a millionaire comedian’s daughter As Guido revealed in his Sun on Sunday column, Harman has been sniffing around for a seat for her old aide Mabel McKeown, the daughter Tracy Ullman, who amassed a £75 million fortune as her show brought the world The Simpsons. Less-than-local candidate Mabel who was born in LA, has not had much electoral success so far. She lost out for a local council and when she stood for the London Assembly.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    NickPalmer said:

    The ComRes table that fascinates me is number 6. Apparently, among all those likely to vote Labour for Westminster (5-10 certain), only a handful will vote UKIP, but a third will vote LibDem and a third will vote Tory in the Euros. LibDems divide similarly. So this shows that Cameron and Clegg are making huge inroads with their European policy. Splendid work. Now move on to the first column. Of those currently planning to vote Tory for Westminster, 39% plan to vote Labour in the Euros, and 22% plan to vote LibDem.Only 21% of Tories will vote Tory.

    Eh???

    http://www.comres.co.uk/poll/929/open-europe-political-poll-may-2013.htm

    27% of Tories will vote Tory, you slightly misread the table, but it is really very strange.

    Another odd result is that of the Labour voters for the Euro elections about half of them would vote Lib Dem or Tory at Westminster.

    You can't explain such shenanigans with a turnout filter. UKIP retain 98% of their declared Westminster voters for the Europe vote, whereas the figures for the other three parties are 27%, 31%, 26% (Con, Lab, LD).

    I wonder what this sort of thing looked like in the Survation poll which had Euro-voting intention figures and Westminster in the same poll?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,774
    I'm glad I'm not the only one who is utterly by baffled table 6.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 21,066
    edited May 2013
    @Carlotta

    "Well deserved kicking for the Tories -"

    But for all the wrong reasons. it's for their inexplicable decision to supply arms to the Syrian rebels that they deserve a good battering.

    It's unfortunate that in matters of diplomacy all that matters is who your ally is. The Syrian regime is no worse than many in the area and considerably better than many particularly our principal ally Saudi Arabia who thinks nothing of lining up 14 dope smokers and beheading them in the main square in Riyadh in front of cheering school children.

    I've worked in the area many times and our perspective of who are the good guys and who aren't are completely skewed by self interest. This might be fair enough but do they insult our intelligence by pretending there is some noble motive as William Hague is doing.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,774
    Garethofthevale said:

    Mr Eagles - Mike used to publish a table with the latest poll from each pollster. Are you planning to do that again at some point?

    It would be useful as it seems to me there is quite a lot of variability in the polls at the moment.

    I'm planning to run something along those lines on Sunday.

    Once we've got all the May polls in, I'm planning to run how the polls are averaging month by month, and splitting it via phone polls and online polls.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    TGOHF said:

    Labour's dynasty fetish continues

    This would appear to involve the daughter of people who arent Labor politicians.I mean she may start a dynasty herself in the future but she cant be said to be continuing one now.
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    TGOHF said:

    Labour's dynasty fetish continues

    http://order-order.com/2013/05/28/harman-trying-to-stitch-up-seats-again/

    Harman Trying to Stitch Up Seats, Again

    Harriet Harman is trying to stitch up a seat for a millionaire comedian’s daughter As Guido revealed in his Sun on Sunday column, Harman has been sniffing around for a seat for her old aide Mabel McKeown, the daughter Tracy Ullman, who amassed a £75 million fortune as her show brought the world The Simpsons. Less-than-local candidate Mabel who was born in LA, has not had much electoral success so far. She lost out for a local council and when she stood for the London Assembly.

    So, er, not a "dynasty" then?

  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    I've found the Survation data tables from the 20th May.

    The retention figures here look a lot more sensible. The percentage of support retained from the Westminster voting intention to the European poll is:
    Conservative: 72.5%
    Labour: 76.0%
    Lib Dem: 62.3%
    UKIP: 84.1%

    There is a fair bit of switching from the other three parties to UKIP in the European poll (7-10% each). And the Lib Dems bleed a few more votes in all directions (perhaps put off by Euro-enthusiasm, or simply unconstrained by tactical voting?)

    The figures from the ComRes poll look completely ridiculous in comparison, so they've either been corrupted at some stage in the process, or they had a really odd sample.

    One other interesting thing, before the "spiral of silence adjustment", where people who are undecided or refuse to give a voting intention are allocated on the basis of their 2010 vote, UKIP trail the Tories by just 4 people in the poll sample, 191 to 187, or 23.4% to 22.9% - ie both on 23%.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    tim said:

    Can only be a matter of time I suppose.

    I think Will Straw will be going for the seat of Rossendale and Darwen when that selection comes around. Though the idea he wouldnt have been snapped up by a CLP with a fight on its hands if his Dad wasnt Jack Straw is a bit far-fetched.
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    edited May 2013
    ComRes Scottish subsample -

    Westminster election:

    SNP 36%
    Labour 33%
    Conservatives 17%
    Liberal Democrats 6%
    Greens 4%
    UKIP 4%

    European election:

    SNP 39%
    Labour 19%
    Conservatives 17%
    Liberal Democrats 10%
    UKIP 9%
    Greens 7%

    Yet another straw in the winds suggesting that YouGov are getting their Scottish sampling wrong.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    More gloom in Paris than at Headingley

    The French consumer confidence sentiment index fell to 79 in May from a revised reading of 83 in April, matching a record low. Economists had expected the index to rise to 85.

    According to French statistical office Insee, index components such as the households' assessment of their past financial situation, future financial conditions and expectations all worsened from the prior month.

    French data does not yet show signs that the downturn has turned around even as the Bank of France holds on to a second-quarter economic growth forecast of 0.1%. The French economy contracted by 0.2% in each of the prior two quarters.
  • dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    SeanT said:



    Never let it be said I don't know how to shove a stick in the old hornets' nest.

    a) take stick

    b) poke

    it wasn't very hard. admittedly done with a certain panache.

    but if i was yr old teacher at yr (presumably) posh school, i think it would be a C- could try harder

    prob. telegraph needs to pay you more
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    O/T had fun today giving discussing the charities we are going to support this cycle.

    Some very good names here: well worth a look. Even a couple in Camden in case SeanT wants to while away some more hours when he is not teasing Telegraph readers.

    Teamup - one-to-one mentoring for 8-13 year olds - www.teamup.org.uk

    Findacure - fundamental diseases - www.findacure.org.uk

    The British Paraorchestra - does what it says - www.paraorchestra.com

    The Big House Theatre Company - helping people transition from care to independent adulthood - www.bighousetheatre.org.uk

    North London Cares - volunteering in Camden - www.northlondoncares.org.uk

    Campaign for Drawing - figure this one out yourselves - www.campaignfordrawing.org

    Disaster Action - support for survivors/bereaved from UK disasters - www.disasteraction.org.uk
  • RogerRoger Posts: 21,066
    edited May 2013
    @Ben

    "So, er, not a "dynasty" then?"

    Mabel McKeown's Mother Tracy Ullman once persuaded Neal Kinnock to appear in her promo and Neil Kinnock is a member of the Labour Party as is Harriet Harman. That's what is known as 'a dynasty' on Guido's blog.

    Of course that makes me the crown Prince of Brunei.....
  • ZenPaganZenPagan Posts: 689
    @Roger surely it is parents getting a leg up for their children by virtue of who they know and not the childs merit....aren't you meant to be against that sort of thing?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    On the off chance that any of you is ever looking for top class patent law advice this handy guide was published online today:

    http://www.iam-magazine.com/patent1000/
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    AveryLP said:

    More gloom in Paris than at Headingley

    The French consumer confidence sentiment index fell to 79 in May from a revised reading of 83 in April, matching a record low. Economists had expected the index to rise to 85.

    According to French statistical office Insee, index components such as the households' assessment of their past financial situation, future financial conditions and expectations all worsened from the prior month.

    French data does not yet show signs that the downturn has turned around even as the Bank of France holds on to a second-quarter economic growth forecast of 0.1%. The French economy contracted by 0.2% in each of the prior two quarters.

    The perils of sustained austerity. By contrast, over in the US consumer confidence has risen to 76.2 - the highest since February 2008.

  • RogerRoger Posts: 21,066
    @Zen

    "..aren't you meant to be against that sort of thing?"

    Well yes but if Tracy having Neil make a cameo appearance in one of her promos precluded her children from entering politics it would surely be quite a price to pay.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Roger said:

    @Zen

    "..aren't you meant to be against that sort of thing?"

    Well yes but if Tracy having Neil make a cameo appearance in one of her promos precluded her children from entering politics it would surely be quite a price to pay.

    The link that is more worrying is the fact that the daughter used to work for Harman - suggestive of a Westminster clique. The Ullman link is incidental.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Charles said:


    The link that is more worrying is the fact that the daughter used to work for Harman

    If you were genuinely worried about that fact you'd have to disqualify at least half the Cabinet from their current posts.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 21,066
    Remember Hunchman and Plato continuously predicting the FT index's imminent collapse when it was trading around 5200? Surely the mantle of 'worst tipster on here' has now passed from me to a new generation of seriously dreadful tipsters?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    @Roger They lack your pithiness.
  • BoredInParisBoredInParis Posts: 46
    I thought France was finding a new path from austerity :/
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited May 2013
    Neil said:

    Charles said:


    The link that is more worrying is the fact that the daughter used to work for Harman

    If you were genuinely worried about that fact you'd have to disqualify at least half the Cabinet from their current posts.
    I am genuinely worried about the professionalisation of politics. As with all these things the individual case isn't a problem, but once there is an established career path there is a the danager of group think that excludes alternative points of view and is increasingly disconnected from the rest of the country. I don't think it is particularly a good thing, for instance, that the PM, CotE, Letwin and Lansley and Steve Hilton all worked together in the CRD, for instance.

    It's not a uniquely Labour problem, but a problem for the political class as a whole.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Charles said:


    It's not a uniquely Labour problem

    Funny how some people want to present it as such though.
  • ZenPaganZenPagan Posts: 689
    @Roger the point I am making is as you well know not that she shouldn't be able to enter politics but that she shouldnt be having a nudge and a wink put in by a bigwig from the labour party. She should stand before her CLP on her own merits and not having someone put in a good word for her.

    You (as in the left, not you personal) are quick to rail against the advantages purchased by parents in the schooling system and by the influence of the old school tie or golf club. I don't see Harmans intervention being any different
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    SeanT said:

    dugarbandier said:

    SeanT said:



    Never let it be said I don't know how to shove a stick in the old hornets' nest.

    a) take stick

    b) poke

    it wasn't very hard. admittedly done with a certain panache.

    but if i was yr old teacher at yr (presumably) posh school, i think it would be a C- could try harder

    prob. telegraph needs to pay you more
    "C-"? Bit harsh.

    As of this moment, my article has invoked 960 comments in four hours. I'm guessing the Telegraph online editor, counting the clicks, would give me A--. Maybe even A-.
    1000+ would be a cinch with "Immigrant Gay Muslims Most Likely To Be Benefit Cheats".

    Fish. Barrel. Bang!
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    "SNP 39%
    Labour 19%
    Conservatives 17%
    Liberal Democrats 10%
    UKIP 9%
    Greens 7%"

    would give
    SNP 3
    Lab 1
    Con 1
    LD 1

    although the SNP would be in reach of a 4th seat, from LibDem. Alternatively UKIP would be in reach of that seat...
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "Russia has said it is going to go ahead with a delivery of anti-aircraft missiles to the Syrian government in order to deter “hotheads” from getting involved in the country’s civil war."

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/middle-east-live/2013/may/28/eu-lifts-arms-embargo-on-syrian-rebels-live-updates
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    By contrast, over in the US consumer confidence has risen to 76.2 - the highest since February 2008.

    True, but what may be happening in Japan is also instructive. Abenomics is being challenged by rising bond yields and a weakening currency.

    And in the US treasury bond yields are starting to rise, as stocks surge. If treasury yields continue to increase they will take the rest of the developed world with them

  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Anorak said:

    SeanT said:

    dugarbandier said:

    SeanT said:



    Never let it be said I don't know how to shove a stick in the old hornets' nest.

    a) take stick

    b) poke

    it wasn't very hard. admittedly done with a certain panache.

    but if i was yr old teacher at yr (presumably) posh school, i think it would be a C- could try harder

    prob. telegraph needs to pay you more
    "C-"? Bit harsh.

    As of this moment, my article has invoked 960 comments in four hours. I'm guessing the Telegraph online editor, counting the clicks, would give me A--. Maybe even A-.
    1000+ would be a cinch with "Immigrant Gay Muslims Most Likely To Be Benefit Cheats". "Immigrant Gay Muslims To Receive Additional Integration Benefits From NHS Budget"

    Fish. Barrel. Bang!
  • RogerRoger Posts: 21,066
    @antifrank

    @Roger They lack your pithiness.

    That's true and I take it as a compliment.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,931
    SeanT said:

    dugarbandier said:

    SeanT said:



    Never let it be said I don't know how to shove a stick in the old hornets' nest.

    a) take stick

    b) poke

    it wasn't very hard. admittedly done with a certain panache.

    but if i was yr old teacher at yr (presumably) posh school, i think it would be a C- could try harder

    prob. telegraph needs to pay you more
    "C-"? Bit harsh.

    As of this moment, my article has invoked 960 comments in four hours. I'm guessing the Telegraph online editor, counting the clicks, would give me A--. Maybe even A-.
    Yebbut who needs the DT when there's PB.com?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,318
    edited May 2013
    Anorak said:



    "C-"? Bit harsh.

    As of this moment, my article has invoked 960 comments in four hours. I'm guessing the Telegraph online editor, counting the clicks, would give me A--. Maybe even A-.

    1000+ would be a cinch with "Immigrant Gay Muslims Most Likely To Be Benefit Cheats". "New EU rules say Immigrant Gay Muslims To Receive Additional Integration Benefits From NHS Budget"

    Fish. Barrel. Bang!




    (apols for the formatting)
  • dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    SeanT said:

    dugarbandier said:

    SeanT said:



    Never let it be said I don't know how to shove a stick in the old hornets' nest.

    a) take stick

    b) poke

    it wasn't very hard. admittedly done with a certain panache.

    but if i was yr old teacher at yr (presumably) posh school, i think it would be a C- could try harder

    prob. telegraph needs to pay you more
    "C-"? Bit harsh.

    As of this moment, my article has invoked 960 comments in four hours. I'm guessing the Telegraph online editor, counting the clicks, would give me A--. Maybe even A-.
    sod the clicks. more poetry. and possibly a coherent argument. (disclaimer- drunk. and i did say they should pay you more)
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Surely the mantle of 'worst tipster on here' has now passed from me to a new generation of seriously dreadful tipsters?

    Most markets are cyclical. Stocks have been in the doldrums for decades, leading many to think they always would be. Time to buy.

  • RogerRoger Posts: 21,066
    edited May 2013
    "On the off chance that any of you is ever looking for top class patent law advice this handy guide was published online today:"

    Were you looking for one? My cousin who was perhaps the best known ambulance chaser in the country has a daughter who has just joined Carter Ruck specializing in just that.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited May 2013
    Roger said:

    Remember Hunchman and Plato continuously predicting the FT index's imminent collapse when it was trading around 5200? Surely the mantle of 'worst tipster on here' has now passed from me to a new generation of seriously dreadful tipsters?

    I got on at 5802, and stand to make 14% tax free on a hefty wedge (providing it's >=5803 in October)...
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    OblitusSumMe said:

    NickPalmer said:

    The ComRes table that fascinates me is number 6. Apparently, among all those likely to vote Labour for Westminster (5-10 certain), only a handful will vote UKIP, but a third will vote LibDem and a third will vote Tory in the Euros. LibDems divide similarly. So this shows that Cameron and Clegg are making huge inroads with their European policy. Splendid work. Now move on to the first column. Of those currently planning to vote Tory for Westminster, 39% plan to vote Labour in the Euros, and 22% plan to vote LibDem.Only 21% of Tories will vote Tory.

    Eh???

    http://www.comres.co.uk/poll/929/open-europe-political-poll-may-2013.htm

    27% of Tories will vote Tory, you slightly misread the table, but it is really very strange.

    Another odd result is that of the Labour voters for the Euro elections about half of them would vote Lib Dem or Tory at Westminster.

    You can't explain such shenanigans with a turnout filter. UKIP retain 98% of their declared Westminster voters for the Europe vote, whereas the figures for the other three parties are 27%, 31%, 26% (Con, Lab, LD).

    I wonder what this sort of thing looked like in the Survation poll which had Euro-voting intention figures and Westminster in the same poll?
    Has someone typed the wrong line ?
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    RodCrosby said:

    Roger said:

    Remember Hunchman and Plato continuously predicting the FT index's imminent collapse when it was trading around 5200? Surely the mantle of 'worst tipster on here' has now passed from me to a new generation of seriously dreadful tipsters?

    I got on at 5802, and stand to make 14% tax free on a hefty wedge (providing it's >=5803 in October)...
    The Markets, I would suggest, are near their top, Any buying would have to be picky and prudent.

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    @TOPPING @anorak You're amateurs. For maximum clicks and replies, you need something along the lines of:

    "Catholic and Islamic abuse scandals will lead to drugs decriminalisation and gay marriage"
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Neil said:

    Charles said:


    It's not a uniquely Labour problem

    Funny how some people want to present it as such though.
    To be honest I tend to take anything that Guido Fawkes writes with a large pinch of salt. He's not as clever or as funny as he thinks he is.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    AndyJS said:

    "Russia has said it is going to go ahead with a delivery of anti-aircraft missiles to the Syrian government in order to deter “hotheads” from getting involved in the country’s civil war."

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/middle-east-live/2013/may/28/eu-lifts-arms-embargo-on-syrian-rebels-live-updates

    Something of a paradox, no?

    I guess "hothead" must be one of those irregular verbs.

    I am a wise peacemaker
    You are a naive risk-taker
    He is a hothead
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    taffys said:

    By contrast, over in the US consumer confidence has risen to 76.2 - the highest since February 2008.

    True, but what may be happening in Japan is also instructive. Abenomics is being challenged by rising bond yields and a weakening currency.

    And in the US treasury bond yields are starting to rise, as stocks surge. If treasury yields continue to increase they will take the rest of the developed world with them

    Not necessarily. Yields should average out so that they reflect the credit risk spread.

    One possibility is that the US yields rise so much that they become a more attractive investment than the weaker countries so people buy into them and force the yields down.

    rcs will have a more developed view than me, but I'd think this is more that improving confidence is leading to a risk-on view from investors who are therefore selling low-yield safe investments (e.g. T-bills & treasuries) to invest in riskier assets. Selling drives down the price of the T-bills and hence increases the yields.
This discussion has been closed.

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