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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » ComRes online Westminster VI poll
Following on from the release of the ComRes’ European Election VI for Open Europe yesterday, today Open Europe have released the Westminster voting intention poll that was carried out at the same time.
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http://survation.com/2013/05/survation-for-the-mail-on-sunday-reaction-to-the-woolwich-incident/
Whether one takes that figure seriously is another matter, of course.
St George has been sent upon the earth to remedy the damage done to God's work by socialists.
He will succeed. He just needs time. In biblical terms '5 days' should be sufficient.
And Tories don't need holidays. They complete the job, take the bonus and retire.
The Conservatives will be worried that their polling has slipped into the mid 20s, only six points ahead of UKIP, those survation polls with the Conservatives only 2% ahead of UKIP are looking less like outliers
UKIPs rise in the polls has yet to top out.
Especially when one is up against 'black swan' events like terror attacks and unfavourable news from the EU.
Standard & Poor's (S&P), the gold standard of sovereign risk rating agencies and the only one to maintain the UK's AAA rating, has warned France that it may be hit with a credit rating downgrade if it doesn't follow through on budget cuts.
S&P has kept a 'negative' outlook on France since it stripped the country of its 'triple-A' rating in January 2012. At that time, the lead analyst Marko Mrsnik indicated that the current 'AA+/A-1+' was affirmed on the “commitment to budgetary and structural reforms”.
However, Mrsnik told Reuters on Monday that it remained to be seen if France can achieve stabilisation by 2015. “We take on board expectations that in the 2014 budget there will be additional measures that will the position towards smaller deficits,” Mrsnik explained, adding that S&P expects a mild recession this year and a slow recovery thereafter.
No wonder we have sent the Duchess of Cornwall to Paris to speak in French. How else can Citoyen Hollande's shame be tempered?
Not getting worried until the biege standard Angus Reid comes out.
Con 285 seats .. Lab 275 .. LibDem 45 .. SNP 15 .. Ukip 5 .. PC 3 .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 1 .. Speaker 1 .. NI 18
Conservatives 46 seats short of a majority.
St George was sent by God to deliver us from socialism not by Gord.
Meanwhile in other news, I have just booked tickets to see Leonard Cohen in September.
Tory/UKIP 46%
Progressives 46%
Hope you enjoy the Depeche Mode concert tonight! Would be interesting to see if the set-list is any different from tomorrow night when I'm in attendance.
As they are generally muppets who will never be made ministers of anything it makes painfully little difference to them whether they are in official opposition or merely internal opposition. Either way more than 20 years after Maastricht governing the tory party remains considerably more difficult than governing the country.
Given that the alternative is Labour this country does not have its troubles to seek.
I have a thread coming up later on in the week that sees me poke two hornets' nests simultaneously and opening a can of worms.
You said that homosexuality was genetic. The inference being if it wasn’t genetic then we could (and should) try to do something about it.
It is that sort of hesitancy, caution and lack of boldness that will cost him the next election. By demonstrating the consequences Cook has once again shown that Ed is,,,not very good.
It would be useful as it seems to me there is quite a lot of variability in the polls at the moment.
http://www.comres.co.uk/poll/929/open-europe-political-poll-may-2013.htm
Go figure. Hollande: another great call by Ed.
http://www.th-eu-nit.com/index.php/articles/2346-thought-youd-get-free-care-if-you-fell-sick-in-spain-britons-held-hostage-by-foreign-hospitals
A most peculiar poll. Perhaps there are more Pro-EU Conservative voters than popularly imagined?
UKIP (21%) outperform the Conservatives (17%) in Northern England.
"Give me a Leonard Cohen afterworld, So I can sigh eternally..."
http://www.moneymarketing.co.uk/politics/miliband-gives-support-on-financial-transaction-tax/1039021.article
http://robinhoodtax.org.uk/content/response-ed-balls-backing-financial-transaction-tax-his-labour-party-conference-speech
[Incidentally that last website has a useful list of politically-motivated and ignorant charities that you probably don't want to give money to]
"The 20-city S&P Case-Shiller house price index for March climbed 10.87% on the year. This beat expectations for a 10.2% rise.
This is also the fastest pace of increase since April 2006."
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/march-case-shiller-2013-5#ixzz2Uapahdp1
If you've absolutely certain to vote in a European Parliament election a year from now you're either disturbingly obsessed with Martin Schulz or you've misunderstood the question, so these numbers may not be very reliable.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/10039329/German-euro-founder-calls-for-catastrophic-currency-to-be-broken-up.html
Looks like the FTT is a dead duck anyway - another success for the left...
The only time I missed an opportunity to vote was when I missed my train home from a business meeting, and then the train I did catch was itself delayed so that I didn't arrive in my home town until just after 10pm. I'd even brought my polling card with me so that I could vote on my way home from the train station.
I feel quite confident about putting myself down as a 10/10 absolutely certain to vote, though I'll grant that 11/12 is closer to 9/10 than 10/10.
Edited to add: I even voted in the Police and Crime Commissioner elections. How's that for civic responsibility?
Eh???
http://www.comres.co.uk/poll/929/open-europe-political-poll-may-2013.htm
Many jobs in and around the city do not pay mega-bucks.
Yes there are a few greedy, massively over paid and reckless risk takers. That's undeniable and wrong.
However, vast majority of city related workers are ordinary folk earning moderate (or sometimes good) salaries - and on PAYE. And if banks cut workers the ordinary employees will suffer much more than the already vastly wealthy traders...
http://order-order.com/2013/05/28/harman-trying-to-stitch-up-seats-again/
Harman Trying to Stitch Up Seats, Again
Harriet Harman is trying to stitch up a seat for a millionaire comedian’s daughter As Guido revealed in his Sun on Sunday column, Harman has been sniffing around for a seat for her old aide Mabel McKeown, the daughter Tracy Ullman, who amassed a £75 million fortune as her show brought the world The Simpsons. Less-than-local candidate Mabel who was born in LA, has not had much electoral success so far. She lost out for a local council and when she stood for the London Assembly.
Another odd result is that of the Labour voters for the Euro elections about half of them would vote Lib Dem or Tory at Westminster.
You can't explain such shenanigans with a turnout filter. UKIP retain 98% of their declared Westminster voters for the Europe vote, whereas the figures for the other three parties are 27%, 31%, 26% (Con, Lab, LD).
I wonder what this sort of thing looked like in the Survation poll which had Euro-voting intention figures and Westminster in the same poll?
"Well deserved kicking for the Tories -"
But for all the wrong reasons. it's for their inexplicable decision to supply arms to the Syrian rebels that they deserve a good battering.
It's unfortunate that in matters of diplomacy all that matters is who your ally is. The Syrian regime is no worse than many in the area and considerably better than many particularly our principal ally Saudi Arabia who thinks nothing of lining up 14 dope smokers and beheading them in the main square in Riyadh in front of cheering school children.
I've worked in the area many times and our perspective of who are the good guys and who aren't are completely skewed by self interest. This might be fair enough but do they insult our intelligence by pretending there is some noble motive as William Hague is doing.
Once we've got all the May polls in, I'm planning to run how the polls are averaging month by month, and splitting it via phone polls and online polls.
The retention figures here look a lot more sensible. The percentage of support retained from the Westminster voting intention to the European poll is:
Conservative: 72.5%
Labour: 76.0%
Lib Dem: 62.3%
UKIP: 84.1%
There is a fair bit of switching from the other three parties to UKIP in the European poll (7-10% each). And the Lib Dems bleed a few more votes in all directions (perhaps put off by Euro-enthusiasm, or simply unconstrained by tactical voting?)
The figures from the ComRes poll look completely ridiculous in comparison, so they've either been corrupted at some stage in the process, or they had a really odd sample.
One other interesting thing, before the "spiral of silence adjustment", where people who are undecided or refuse to give a voting intention are allocated on the basis of their 2010 vote, UKIP trail the Tories by just 4 people in the poll sample, 191 to 187, or 23.4% to 22.9% - ie both on 23%.
Westminster election:
SNP 36%
Labour 33%
Conservatives 17%
Liberal Democrats 6%
Greens 4%
UKIP 4%
European election:
SNP 39%
Labour 19%
Conservatives 17%
Liberal Democrats 10%
UKIP 9%
Greens 7%
Yet another straw in the winds suggesting that YouGov are getting their Scottish sampling wrong.
The French consumer confidence sentiment index fell to 79 in May from a revised reading of 83 in April, matching a record low. Economists had expected the index to rise to 85.
According to French statistical office Insee, index components such as the households' assessment of their past financial situation, future financial conditions and expectations all worsened from the prior month.
French data does not yet show signs that the downturn has turned around even as the Bank of France holds on to a second-quarter economic growth forecast of 0.1%. The French economy contracted by 0.2% in each of the prior two quarters.
b) poke
it wasn't very hard. admittedly done with a certain panache.
but if i was yr old teacher at yr (presumably) posh school, i think it would be a C- could try harder
prob. telegraph needs to pay you more
Some very good names here: well worth a look. Even a couple in Camden in case SeanT wants to while away some more hours when he is not teasing Telegraph readers.
Teamup - one-to-one mentoring for 8-13 year olds - www.teamup.org.uk
Findacure - fundamental diseases - www.findacure.org.uk
The British Paraorchestra - does what it says - www.paraorchestra.com
The Big House Theatre Company - helping people transition from care to independent adulthood - www.bighousetheatre.org.uk
North London Cares - volunteering in Camden - www.northlondoncares.org.uk
Campaign for Drawing - figure this one out yourselves - www.campaignfordrawing.org
Disaster Action - support for survivors/bereaved from UK disasters - www.disasteraction.org.uk
"So, er, not a "dynasty" then?"
Mabel McKeown's Mother Tracy Ullman once persuaded Neal Kinnock to appear in her promo and Neil Kinnock is a member of the Labour Party as is Harriet Harman. That's what is known as 'a dynasty' on Guido's blog.
Of course that makes me the crown Prince of Brunei.....
http://www.iam-magazine.com/patent1000/
"..aren't you meant to be against that sort of thing?"
Well yes but if Tracy having Neil make a cameo appearance in one of her promos precluded her children from entering politics it would surely be quite a price to pay.
It's not a uniquely Labour problem, but a problem for the political class as a whole.
You (as in the left, not you personal) are quick to rail against the advantages purchased by parents in the schooling system and by the influence of the old school tie or golf club. I don't see Harmans intervention being any different
Fish. Barrel. Bang!
Labour 19%
Conservatives 17%
Liberal Democrats 10%
UKIP 9%
Greens 7%"
would give
SNP 3
Lab 1
Con 1
LD 1
although the SNP would be in reach of a 4th seat, from LibDem. Alternatively UKIP would be in reach of that seat...
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/middle-east-live/2013/may/28/eu-lifts-arms-embargo-on-syrian-rebels-live-updates
True, but what may be happening in Japan is also instructive. Abenomics is being challenged by rising bond yields and a weakening currency.
And in the US treasury bond yields are starting to rise, as stocks surge. If treasury yields continue to increase they will take the rest of the developed world with them
@Roger They lack your pithiness.
That's true and I take it as a compliment.
Fish. Barrel. Bang!
(apols for the formatting)
Most markets are cyclical. Stocks have been in the doldrums for decades, leading many to think they always would be. Time to buy.
Were you looking for one? My cousin who was perhaps the best known ambulance chaser in the country has a daughter who has just joined Carter Ruck specializing in just that.
"Catholic and Islamic abuse scandals will lead to drugs decriminalisation and gay marriage"
I guess "hothead" must be one of those irregular verbs.
I am a wise peacemaker
You are a naive risk-taker
He is a hothead
One possibility is that the US yields rise so much that they become a more attractive investment than the weaker countries so people buy into them and force the yields down.
rcs will have a more developed view than me, but I'd think this is more that improving confidence is leading to a risk-on view from investors who are therefore selling low-yield safe investments (e.g. T-bills & treasuries) to invest in riskier assets. Selling drives down the price of the T-bills and hence increases the yields.