Anecdote klaxon: Just had a fascinating discussion with a customer. He came in to pick up a book he'd ordered, and grabbed a copy of Rory Stewart to go with it, so we got talking politics. He's a little older than me (first voted early 70s, so maybe 70ish?), retired and very well off (he lives in Arundel, so...).
He told me that he's been a lifelong Tory, and was very active politically for a while, so much so he was offered a safe seat at one point (note: he says this, I have no independent verification). Now, he's absolutely vitriolic about the Cons - obsession with economics over social issues, Brexit, Boris, Liz Truss, PPE, fracking, sewage, and on, and on. Wouldn't touch them with a bargepole now - says they are not remotely a Conservative party he recognises. He's not just not voting for them, he's a) voting Green and b) wants to see the Conservatives destroyed next week. His wife is even further along - she was chair of the local Conservative association some while back, but has taken part in, and been arrested on, XR and JSO demonstrations!
I didn't mention my own leanings until we got to this point, so I wasn't influencing him! But is something stirring in the heart of blue England? I am reminded of The Secret People...
Canvassing a former Tory area in Didcot and Wantage yesterday with a big team, we found numerous people saying with every appearance of honesty that they were undecided. That duplicates findings the previous day. I've no idea what they'll do on election day - stay at home, vote Tory, vote Labour, vote LibDem? It's one of those seats where the Tories should be safe normally, but there is copious evidence of both LibDem strength (previous council elections) and Labour strength (the opinion poll surge and anecedotal reports).
The poster count is roughly LibDem-Labour 50-50, with zilch for Tories and minor candidates, although in principle it's a safe Tory seat. The LibDems have gone really heavy on generic leaflet delivery - one voter has had 11 from them so far (mostly standard national), vs 3 from Labour (all local) and 1 from the Tory MP (local). Who should be favourite? I genuinely have no idea. Nationally it doesn't matter, but of course each election sets the starting post for the next.
I canvassed a formerly safe Tory area in Croydon South at the weekend, long drives, Range Rovers etc, and found the same - a few Labour but many appeared genuinely undecided (and often quite angry) - I guess these were former Tories who do not know what they will do. Of course in Croydon there is no LD activity so I think Labour is on course to take the seat.
Yougov has it Lab by 2%, everyone else more comfortably.
It needs a 13% swing, that's going some in London. Proportional swing they'll take it, UNS on London polling no, it stays blue
Croydon demographic is moving away from the Tories and the effect of the Council bankruptcy seems to be fading so I think Labour should do it.
Cool, thanks for the insight
😊
Another factor in :Labour's favour is/was ULEZ - this certainly came up on the doorstep in the mayoral election and depressed Khan's vote in the outer boroughs but it's not an issue at the GE, people accept that the debate on that is over.
“Do you think the current council tax bands and system are fair?
Liz Kendall: "... we're not going to be changing [them], & let me explain why... we've got to be honest about what our priorities are, and our priorities are not to be raising Income Tax, VAT or National Insurance”
Council tax set for a big rise then.
The most simple and stealthy way to get a wealth tax in.
It will be clumsy and deeply unfair, but within the boundaries of what can actually be achieved.
You cover it up by offloading all the blame to councils, like all council funding cuts over the last 14 years, and offer an olive branch of bands/rates reform (that will never actually materialise).
The very name council tax was devised by Michael Heseltine explicitly to offload the blame to councils.
But I thought Labour had ruled out adding new council tax bands?
I don't think Labour have ruled out anything regarding council tax...
Or in reality, tax...
And neither have the Tories because as the IFS point out Hunt has created an £18bn hole with no details as to how the Tories would fix it.
NEW: Sir Ed Davey says he placed a bet on the outcome of the 2010 General Election, on the number of seats the Lib Dems would win. He says he got it wrong and didn’t win anything.
The question is whether that is a legitimate bet to make. He didn’t know the answer.
V different from knowing the answer and placing a bet.
But then there is an open Q about whether politicians, often with access to privileged information, should be making political bets at all
Honestly I don't particularly have an issue with it in principle - as in Davey's example, which I don't have a problem with - but that is substantively different to knowing something for certain before it is public knowledge and betting on that.
There is then the other potential risk (as with athletes) of potentially manipulating outcomes - which seems a lot less likely than in sport, but certainly not impossible. However, has there ever been any evidence of this happening?
Can anyone think of a party leader who has tanked their parties popularity in the polls with wacky ideas and a kamikaze approach to the campaign that could best be explained if they had bet against the party?
“Do you think the current council tax bands and system are fair?
Liz Kendall: "... we're not going to be changing [them], & let me explain why... we've got to be honest about what our priorities are, and our priorities are not to be raising Income Tax, VAT or National Insurance”
Council tax set for a big rise then.
The most simple and stealthy way to get a wealth tax in.
It will be clumsy and deeply unfair, but within the boundaries of what can actually be achieved.
You cover it up by offloading all the blame to councils, like all council funding cuts over the last 14 years, and offer an olive branch of bands/rates reform (that will never actually materialise).
The very name council tax was devised by Michael Heseltine explicitly to offload the blame to councils.
But I thought Labour had ruled out adding new council tax bands?
I don't think Labour have ruled out anything regarding council tax...
Or in reality, tax...
And neither have the Tories because as the IFS point out Hunt has created an £18bn hole with no details as to how the Tories would fix it.
Towards the end Jeremy Hunt seemed to be writing cheques with the express intent of screwing Labour.
On preparing for the evening, my default setting is BBC for these things. Like poor, poor Rishi we don't have Sky, so I guess my other option will be ITN?
The garden placard fairy has left a vote green placard three doors up, the sole placard on my street. Usually there would be a dozen, mix of green and labour but this time its all a bit 'meh'
I've made this point before - but political flags strike me as ever so slightly rude. It would be like me coming up to you in the street, unannounced, and declaring 'Vote Conservative!' or whatever. At the very least it's a way of making 75% of people think slightly less of you. We're generally quite good IRL at tiptoeing around contentious issues like this and I find it slightly surprising we used to do it to the scale we did.
I've got a little Labour sticker on my study window at the top left of the house. From the street you wouldn't know what it was - you'd have to scale up the wall and take a look, which you wouldn't because I'd spot you. However I know what it is, and it's there, I'm looking at it now.
That sounds more British. "I'm voting Labour, but I'm not going to shout about it."
Anecdote klaxon: Just had a fascinating discussion with a customer. He came in to pick up a book he'd ordered, and grabbed a copy of Rory Stewart to go with it, so we got talking politics. He's a little older than me (first voted early 70s, so maybe 70ish?), retired and very well off (he lives in Arundel, so...).
He told me that he's been a lifelong Tory, and was very active politically for a while, so much so he was offered a safe seat at one point (note: he says this, I have no independent verification). Now, he's absolutely vitriolic about the Cons - obsession with economics over social issues, Brexit, Boris, Liz Truss, PPE, fracking, sewage, and on, and on. Wouldn't touch them with a bargepole now - says they are not remotely a Conservative party he recognises. He's not just not voting for them, he's a) voting Green and b) wants to see the Conservatives destroyed next week. His wife is even further along - she was chair of the local Conservative association some while back, but has taken part in, and been arrested on, XR and JSO demonstrations!
I didn't mention my own leanings until we got to this point, so I wasn't influencing him! But is something stirring in the heart of blue England? I am reminded of The Secret People...
Is this perhaps why those Green numbers are holding up? It's not inner city radicals cross about Gaza, it's shire Tories protesting about the local environment. A safe place to park your vote without having to go the whole hog and vote Labour or Lib Dem.
This may also explain things like North Herefordshire and Waveney Valley.
The geographical spread of Green votes is going to be fascinating. I wish we had the same village-level voting data that France does. In theory it should be possible, we could do it based on polling station. But in practice it's not done that way.
Do we not get ward-level?
I agree that Green performance is one of the more fascinating side-plots in this election, and could have quite an impact on the future direction of the party, especially if it's the shires that deliver rather than the lib-left cities.
The only official figures are at constituency level. By observing the ballot boxes when they’re first checked, diligent party officials can get an idea of the breakdown by polling station.
NEW: Sir Ed Davey says he placed a bet on the outcome of the 2010 General Election, on the number of seats the Lib Dems would win. He says he got it wrong and didn’t win anything.
The question is whether that is a legitimate bet to make. He didn’t know the answer.
V different from knowing the answer and placing a bet.
But then there is an open Q about whether politicians, often with access to privileged information, should be making political bets at all
Are those Rishi's trousers or has he put on his daughter's leggings by mistake?
I'm surprised nobody's had a word about this. We don't tend to produce stylish political leaders though (controversially perhaps I'd say TMay is probably the best dresser of any PM in living memory).
NEW: Sir Ed Davey says he placed a bet on the outcome of the 2010 General Election, on the number of seats the Lib Dems would win. He says he got it wrong and didn’t win anything.
The question is whether that is a legitimate bet to make. He didn’t know the answer.
V different from knowing the answer and placing a bet.
But then there is an open Q about whether politicians, often with access to privileged information, should be making political bets at all
Very interesting. However the conclusion is that the Tories may do better, for reasons, than the polls predict, and may do worse, for reasons, than the polls predict. Which we knew.
They also conclude that it is possible that Labour won't get a majority. Which now feels close to impossible.
This puts intelligent opinion generally with Labour between c315 and +500. Which helps loads!
On preparing for the evening, my default setting is BBC for these things. Like poor, poor Rishi we don't have Sky, so I guess my other option will be ITN?
I'll have a PB tab open as well ofc.
This time, bed and R4/5 quietly. That's all. It's a privilege of age. Nick Robinson and co getting there a little slower will do fine. Better pictures and soporific, especially if there a bit of Jim Naughtie.
The garden placard fairy has left a vote green placard three doors up, the sole placard on my street. Usually there would be a dozen, mix of green and labour but this time its all a bit 'meh'
I've made this point before - but political flags strike me as ever so slightly rude. It would be like me coming up to you in the street, unannounced, and declaring 'Vote Conservative!' or whatever. At the very least it's a way of making 75% of people think slightly less of you. We're generally quite good IRL at tiptoeing around contentious issues like this and I find it slightly surprising we used to do it to the scale we did.
I've got a little Labour sticker on my study window at the top left of the house. From the street you wouldn't know what it was - you'd have to scale up the wall and take a look, which you wouldn't because I'd spot you. However I know what it is, and it's there, I'm looking at it now.
That sounds more British. "I'm voting Labour, but I'm not going to shout about it."
Yes, it's just a discreet indication of where I stand and what I'm all about, delivered not on first meeting someone but after I've known them for at least 10 years. The British way.
Anecdote klaxon: Just had a fascinating discussion with a customer. He came in to pick up a book he'd ordered, and grabbed a copy of Rory Stewart to go with it, so we got talking politics. He's a little older than me (first voted early 70s, so maybe 70ish?), retired and very well off (he lives in Arundel, so...).
He told me that he's been a lifelong Tory, and was very active politically for a while, so much so he was offered a safe seat at one point (note: he says this, I have no independent verification). Now, he's absolutely vitriolic about the Cons - obsession with economics over social issues, Brexit, Boris, Liz Truss, PPE, fracking, sewage, and on, and on. Wouldn't touch them with a bargepole now - says they are not remotely a Conservative party he recognises. He's not just not voting for them, he's a) voting Green and b) wants to see the Conservatives destroyed next week. His wife is even further along - she was chair of the local Conservative association some while back, but has taken part in, and been arrested on, XR and JSO demonstrations!
I didn't mention my own leanings until we got to this point, so I wasn't influencing him! But is something stirring in the heart of blue England? I am reminded of The Secret People...
Canvassing a former Tory area in Didcot and Wantage yesterday with a big team, we found numerous people saying with every appearance of honesty that they were undecided. That duplicates findings the previous day. I've no idea what they'll do on election day - stay at home, vote Tory, vote Labour, vote LibDem? It's one of those seats where the Tories should be safe normally, but there is copious evidence of both LibDem strength (previous council elections) and Labour strength (the opinion poll surge and anecedotal reports).
The poster count is roughly LibDem-Labour 50-50, with zilch for Tories and minor candidates, although in principle it's a safe Tory seat. The LibDems have gone really heavy on generic leaflet delivery - one voter has had 11 from them so far (mostly standard national), vs 3 from Labour (all local) and 1 from the Tory MP (local). Who should be favourite? I genuinely have no idea. Nationally it doesn't matter, but of course each election sets the starting post for the next.
These are the people I call 'shy ex-Tories'. Theyve been Tory all their life, and can't admit even to themselves that they have changed. They'll vote for someone else, and may even be surprised as they put the cross down as to where they've put it. I've met them at a local level, but it feels like this time it's happening nationally.
I remain unconvinced they really will be ex. On the morning with their pencil hovering over the ballot paper...
The whole "pencil hovering over the ballot paper" never makes sense to me. The only evidence I have seen for this is the "shy Tories" of 1992 who have been discussed and accounted for in polls for 32 years.
OK, today's challenge/question. Leaving out Scotland and London, what's the furthest up the ladder the Tories manage a hold? I'm off for a look and will return with my guess.........
Beaconsfield, but that's a special case because of Dominic Grieve standing as an indy last time. Next could be Yeovil or Torbay.
Financing local Government is one of those issues which nobody, if they've got any sense, wants to go anywhere near. The fact we are dealing with a hastily imposed settlement brought in as a result of the overthrow of Margaret Thatcher speaks volumes.
30+ years on and the consequences of that stupidity are clear. We have a banding system which bears little or no resemblance to the value of the properties to which it relates and the main reason for its creation - to allow local authorities to fund themselves without having to rely on central Government largesse - has also failed to be addressed.
In some authorites, up to two thirds of expenditure is on the provision of care for vulnerable adults and children as well on children with Special Education Needs (SEN). SEN referrals have increased exponentially since the end of lockdown but the provision of suitable teaching accommodation and the supply of qualified teachers has not. The funding of transport for SEN children is a particular area of concern with many authorities cutting it for children over sixteen.
The central question is what do you want local councils to do? In theory, adult social care could be taken out of local authority control and run by a national care agency which would ensure adequate levels of residential care, specialist (including dementia) care and domiciliary care across the country based on the maxim the older population should be treated with respect and dignity and the care offer should provide that. At the same time, the agency should be promoting in-family care where possible and acting as a positive help for carers of all ages and types. Caring should be viewed as a vital part of family life and carers should be encouraged as much as possible (employers hsould be given huge tax breaks to employ carers).
How do you fund the rest of local Government? With the pressure off in terms of care, other functions can be looked at - we need local community hubs where a range of services and advice are available and very often just a place for the lonely and the alone to go and meet other people. This needs to be a 24 hour a day, seven day a week service provision - the message being if you're lonely, you don't have to be alone.
How this society deals with the alone and the lonely is reprehensible and a shame to us all. Sport, for example, should be leading on this getting people out and about providing free or discounted admission so those who have no social life can have the opportunity to live a little.
Back to funding? @Sandpit rails against property taxation and the truth is there is no fair form of local Government funding. The truth is those with high value properties are doing very well out of the current system and any changes will disadvantage them (and they will whinge) and benefit the providers of Council Tax software (who won't).
On preparing for the evening, my default setting is BBC for these things. Like poor, poor Rishi we don't have Sky, so I guess my other option will be ITN?
I'll have a PB tab open as well ofc.
ITN is far, far superior to the BBC and has been for years. That BBC now have the hopeless LauraK as 'anchorwoman' will add to their malaise.
Meanwhile, ITN have Ozzy and Ballzy – two of the finest political pundits and a great double act.
On Green Belt, and how capricious and inconsistent it is, I was checking that in our area.
Nottingham and Derby between them have 234 square miles of Greenbelt, which is 1/8 of the total area of the two counties which is 1848 sqm. Plus there are perhaps another 80-100 square miles of Derbyshire which are in the Greenbelt around Manchester and Sheffield. That's on top of the protected area in the Peak District National Park afaics.
By comparison, Leicester, the 3rd of the three Midlands' Cities, has no Green Belt at all.
That is kind of strange when you consider how much development has been going on to the East of Nottingham in the Gedling/Carlton/Netherfield area and also up around Ravenshead and Hucknall, some of which appears to be in that Green Belt land.
A lot in Hucknall is former Rolls-Royce, including the airfield.
NEW: Sir Ed Davey says he placed a bet on the outcome of the 2010 General Election, on the number of seats the Lib Dems would win. He says he got it wrong and didn’t win anything.
The question is whether that is a legitimate bet to make. He didn’t know the answer.
V different from knowing the answer and placing a bet.
But then there is an open Q about whether politicians, often with access to privileged information, should be making political bets at all
NEW: Sir Ed Davey says he placed a bet on the outcome of the 2010 General Election, on the number of seats the Lib Dems would win. He says he got it wrong and didn’t win anything.
The question is whether that is a legitimate bet to make. He didn’t know the answer.
V different from knowing the answer and placing a bet.
But then there is an open Q about whether politicians, often with access to privileged information, should be making political bets at all
NEW: Sir Ed Davey says he placed a bet on the outcome of the 2010 General Election, on the number of seats the Lib Dems would win. He says he got it wrong and didn’t win anything.
The question is whether that is a legitimate bet to make. He didn’t know the answer.
V different from knowing the answer and placing a bet.
But then there is an open Q about whether politicians, often with access to privileged information, should be making political bets at all
Ilford North and South being projected last is pitiful, given that both are small, compact, urban seats. The organisation of the count in Redbridge became shambolic as Labour took control there, and has clearly got worse and worse as the years have passed.
If Labour scrap the 25% pension tax free lump sum in their post election "emergency" budget then I'm handing in my notice pronto so I'm gone by 5th April.
NEW: Sir Ed Davey says he placed a bet on the outcome of the 2010 General Election, on the number of seats the Lib Dems would win. He says he got it wrong and didn’t win anything.
The question is whether that is a legitimate bet to make. He didn’t know the answer.
V different from knowing the answer and placing a bet.
But then there is an open Q about whether politicians, often with access to privileged information, should be making political bets at all
This is all getting a bit puritanical now imo. It can only be a matter of time before someone calls for politicians to be banned from betting on politics altogether.
It was always going to. The media leapt on it as another kick the Tories story (which it is) but naturally overdid the outrage and manifested public hysteria over all political betting. Now they'll end up agreeing some stupid cross party arrangement on betting by politicians. We are supposed to be electing a government, instead half the media have turned into Oliver Cromwell faced with a tray of mince pies
It would be interesting to see a list of people with Lobby passes who placed bets in the run up to the election date annoucement.
NEW: Sir Ed Davey says he placed a bet on the outcome of the 2010 General Election, on the number of seats the Lib Dems would win. He says he got it wrong and didn’t win anything.
The question is whether that is a legitimate bet to make. He didn’t know the answer.
V different from knowing the answer and placing a bet.
But then there is an open Q about whether politicians, often with access to privileged information, should be making political bets at all
Hislop's comment. If you are a usual Tory, and you're voting for Starmer, be in no doubt: you are voting to embrace aspects of socialism:
"This is an important piece of journalism in that it adds to our understanding of the enigma that is Starmer. It affirms that the man has integrity and is prepared to modify his views when confronted by evidence.
If Labour wins, the electorate has to accept that the government will embrace aspects of socialism. The government will not be Tory lite. The Tory Party destroyed its traditional conservative core. The price of this is something more radical. However, something radical is needed. The Tories have wasted 14 years in government. Radical change is never painless, as we discovered under Thatcher.
Let us hope that Starmer has her mettle."
Let's hope so! My fear is Starmer will disappoint through being too timid.
My expectation is he will disappoint because neither he, nor anyone else in the upper echelons of government (and here I very much do include the civil service) has any understanding of the enormous problems we face or therefore of how to fix them.
And even if they did, there are so many fronts to attack on there literally isn't time enough or resource enough to deal with them all.
Britain is of course not alone in that, but we suffer structural weaknesses in our economy that make us unusually vulnerable.
So, nobody in the upper echelons of government or civil service has any understanding of the enormous problems we face or how to fix them... but you do?
Sorry, I like a lot of your posts but this one doesn't stack up.
Who said I had solutions? I didn't, and I don't. Not outside a few highly specialised fields.
But I can see the problems without much trouble.
And it's not difficult to see that any time any individual from those groups talks about a field I do understand they talk utter bollocks that shows they don't get it. Not hard to extrapolate from there.
Matthew Goodwin who has been acting like he's ramping for Reform since the campaign began thinks they have been damaged by Farage's Ukraine comments and he'd better off focusing on immigration again.
NEW: Sir Ed Davey says he placed a bet on the outcome of the 2010 General Election, on the number of seats the Lib Dems would win. He says he got it wrong and didn’t win anything.
The question is whether that is a legitimate bet to make. He didn’t know the answer.
V different from knowing the answer and placing a bet.
But then there is an open Q about whether politicians, often with access to privileged information, should be making political bets at all
Comments
Another factor in :Labour's favour is/was ULEZ - this certainly came up on the doorstep in the mayoral election and depressed Khan's vote in the outer boroughs but it's not an issue at the GE, people accept that the debate on that is over.
https://x.com/scottygb/status/1805892795036483945?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
She has personal history with 🇷🇺 imperialism, her mother & grandmother were deported to Siberia.
Her nomination signals Europe’s readiness for tougher stance on 🇷🇺. EU's foreign policy will now have strong teeth.
https://x.com/NonaMamulashvi/status/1805727319819964522
NEW THREAD
I'll have a PB tab open as well ofc.
There used to be, not sure if there still is, a Max Wall Society dedicated to appreciation of his immense talents.
They also conclude that it is possible that Labour won't get a majority. Which now feels close to impossible.
This puts intelligent opinion generally with Labour between c315 and +500. Which helps loads!
Financing local Government is one of those issues which nobody, if they've got any sense, wants to go anywhere near. The fact we are dealing with a hastily imposed settlement brought in as a result of the overthrow of Margaret Thatcher speaks volumes.
30+ years on and the consequences of that stupidity are clear. We have a banding system which bears little or no resemblance to the value of the properties to which it relates and the main reason for its creation - to allow local authorities to fund themselves without having to rely on central Government largesse - has also failed to be addressed.
In some authorites, up to two thirds of expenditure is on the provision of care for vulnerable adults and children as well on children with Special Education Needs (SEN). SEN referrals have increased exponentially since the end of lockdown but the provision of suitable teaching accommodation and the supply of qualified teachers has not. The funding of transport for SEN children is a particular area of concern with many authorities cutting it for children over sixteen.
The central question is what do you want local councils to do? In theory, adult social care could be taken out of local authority control and run by a national care agency which would ensure adequate levels of residential care, specialist (including dementia) care and domiciliary care across the country based on the maxim the older population should be treated with respect and dignity and the care offer should provide that. At the same time, the agency should be promoting in-family care where possible and acting as a positive help for carers of all ages and types. Caring should be viewed as a vital part of family life and carers should be encouraged as much as possible (employers hsould be given huge tax breaks to employ carers).
How do you fund the rest of local Government? With the pressure off in terms of care, other functions can be looked at - we need local community hubs where a range of services and advice are available and very often just a place for the lonely and the alone to go and meet other people. This needs to be a 24 hour a day, seven day a week service provision - the message being if you're lonely, you don't have to be alone.
How this society deals with the alone and the lonely is reprehensible and a shame to us all. Sport, for example, should be leading on this getting people out and about providing free or discounted admission so those who have no social life can have the opportunity to live a little.
Back to funding? @Sandpit rails against property taxation and the truth is there is no fair form of local Government funding. The truth is those with high value properties are doing very well out of the current system and any changes will disadvantage them (and they will whinge) and benefit the providers of Council Tax software (who won't).
Meanwhile, ITN have Ozzy and Ballzy – two of the finest political pundits and a great double act.
DYOR.
I was not aware that it was *that* extensive.
Not difficult to see why.
Polls with a more recent comparison do show a modest decrease in RFM support as a result. Not a huge decrease, but certainly a check on their rise.
As in the old joke.
Just googled and the Max Wall Society still exists.
https://www.maxwallsociety.org/index.php#drama
Why don't we just bin it and replace it with a tax on the imputed rental value of the property?
Trying to think of a suitable name....
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/property/overlooked-county-new-commuter-favourite/
Who said I had solutions? I didn't, and I don't. Not outside a few highly specialised fields.
But I can see the problems without much trouble.
And it's not difficult to see that any time any individual from those groups talks about a field I do understand they talk utter bollocks that shows they don't get it. Not hard to extrapolate from there.
Matthew Goodwin who has been acting like he's ramping for Reform since the campaign began thinks they have been damaged by Farage's Ukraine comments and he'd better off focusing on immigration again.