politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the day Cameron and Clegg rushed to key marginals to ann

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

Wow. Great speech Dave. Any more 'change the face of the country' addresses you've got hidden up your sleeve between now and next May?

You're ignoring the poll that saw the Tories up 3% post speech.

I don't ignore any polls, but you're kidding yourself if you think the speech was popular TSE. This should have been a strong anti-UKIP fight back from Dave. Instead it's driven me (and there will be plenty others like me) into thinking we have no choice but to vote UKIP.

Right, off to bed now - long day tomorrow. Goodnight.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Labour 3 point lead in new poll for @Independent

Con 28% (-2)
Lab 31% (+1)
LD 9% (NC)
UKIP 18% (-1)
Green 7% (+3)
Others 7% (NC)

Big two on 59%...

Steven_Whaley said:

dr_spyn said:

How long will the Greens surge? A few more months, or will they implode under pressure of an election campaign?

I think their surge will continue. It's following the same pattern as the UKIP surge except for the unfortunate fact that the Green surge is running about 2 years behind UKIP's - so probably won't peak until after the GE. Though I certainly think low double figures in the polls is possible by the GE.

I think what's happening is that left leaning voters are realising that there's an alternative for them other than the same old choices - in the same was as the right began to a couple of years ago. I think, in fairness, UKIP can take some of the credit for the growth in the Green vote. The left have looked at how the right have got more choosy and thought "Yeah... we'll have some of that too please."

Whatever the reasons for the Green surge, long may it continue.

There is no Green surge , their vote has fallen in nearly every single council by election they have contested since June including those in November . Their vote share is below 4%

bigjohnowls said:

Tonights COMRES LAB 333 CON 251 LD 33

EICIPM

If, as is likely, Ed, is next PM, I almost feel sorry for Labour supporters. The levels of dissatisfaction he will have, will make Hollande and Obama look like giants of the political landscape. He has no clue and importantly no money to bribe people with which will leave him twisting in the wind.

YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour and Tories tied on 32%:

CON 32%, LAB 32%, LD 8%, UKIP 15%, GRN 6%

Better for Con after a slightly disappointing day overall.

Artist said:

The only coverage I ever see of the Greens is when they are moaning about not being in the debates.

I think they deserve it but only if they outpoll the LD, that is my rule of thumb.
If the LD are in the debates, then any party receiving more support deserves to be in the debates too.

Today's 4 polls:

YouGov - 0
Ashcroft - 2
ComRes - 3
Populus - 3

Average = 2

Scott_P said:

@Sun_Politics: YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour and Tories tied on 32%:

CON 32%, LAB 32%, LD 8%, UKIP 15%, GRN 6%

We all know who the gold standard is.

TheScreamingEagles said:

As an 'Allo 'Allo fan, I love the front page of the Sun

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B3zbIemIIAERisK.jpg

As a fellow 'allo 'allo fan, I can report that my daughter's university have recently renamed their teams the Nighthawks. Even worse, the mascot is named Nigel.

http://ungathletics.com/sports/2014/7/9/nigel_nighthawk.aspx

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

As an 'Allo 'Allo fan, I love the front page of the Sun

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B3zbIemIIAERisK.jpg

Where are the free copies of the Sun hidden in Knockwurst sausages??

When I'm in proper Yorkshire mode, and I start speaking French, I sound a lot like Officer Crabtree.

This poll represents a 22 point drop in support for the three established parties compared to 2010.

@bigjohnowls

Tonights COMRES LAB 333 CON 251 LD 33

EICIPM


You obviously missed the Peter Kellner article this morning.


'"No longer. Uniform swing is now worse than useless. It is positively misleading. In particular, Labour can no longer hope to emerge as the largest party next May, even if it trails Conservatives significantly in votes."
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/12/01/uniform-swing-rip/

MarkSenior said:

There is no Green surge , their vote has fallen in nearly every single council by election they have contested since June including those in November . Their vote share is below 4%

If there's no Green surge then that probably means that I, as part of the Green surge, don't exist. That's a bit of a worry for me on all kinds of levels. I'm think I'm going to pop to the bathroom now and check the mirror to make sure I still exist.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

Wow. Great speech Dave. Any more 'change the face of the country' addresses you've got hidden up your sleeve between now and next May?

You're ignoring the poll that saw the Tories up 3% post speech.

I don't ignore any polls, but you're kidding yourself if you think the speech was popular TSE. This should have been a strong anti-UKIP fight back from Dave. Instead it's driven me (and there will be plenty others like me) into thinking we have no choice but to vote UKIP.

Right, off to bed now - long day tomorrow. Goodnight.

I'm not kidding myself, when the likes of Peter Bone, John Redwood etc approve of the speech, it has to be a success on some level.

So who are these tory backbench MP's who think Cameron watered down the immigration speech because he was sat on by merkel and are not happy bunnies.

john_zims said:

@bigjohnowls

Tonights COMRES LAB 333 CON 251 LD 33

EICIPM


You obviously missed the Peter Kellner article this morning.


'"No longer. Uniform swing is now worse than useless. It is positively misleading. In particular, Labour can no longer hope to emerge as the largest party next May, even if it trails Conservatives significantly in votes."
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/12/01/uniform-swing-rip/

I dont believe PK has got that right.

I think LAB will get most seats on a smaller % vote than CONS.

Danny565 said:

anotherDave said:

peter_from_putney said:

anotherDave said:

dr_spyn said:

How long will the Greens surge? A few more months, or will they implode under pressure of an election campaign?

The Greens seem to have a more positive image than most, so they may keep on surging.

http://www.mediafire.com/view/l8rd7atd257yprk/YouGov polls 12 months to 30 November inc Green 2014.jpg#

If so with their communist-style far left policies, it is Labour who will inevitably be hit.

YouGov did a little profile of the Greens the other week. Their support is:

LD 50%, Lab 22%, Con 9%, Other 18%

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/10/27/ukip-greens-and-new-politics-protest/

I'd assume a huge number of that "50% Lib Dems" are people who were Red Liberals at some point between 2010 and 2014, but have now also gone off Labour because they're not sufficiently left-wing for them.

That would fit.

chestnut said:

bigjohnowls said:

On EIC being PM?

I will offer you Evs if you think he wont £100 maximum

On Lab getting 332 seats or more. I would not be very confident and that is well above my forecast number of seats.

UNS on COMRES shows the seats as per my post.

It is not my forecast

EVENS????

On him being PM???

Jeez.

At least we now know where we stand.

No better than even money to scrape a minority PM-ship.

You dont think there is a 50% chance of there being a Tory PM after GE2015 then?


Fair enough I agree

Socrates said:

I find this sort of fetish bizarre, but there seems to be absolutely no reason for the government to ban the filming of consensual acts:

http://www.vice.com/en_uk/read/the-end-of-uk-bdsm-282

I wonder if the 1980-2000 period will be remembered as being the peak of a liberal society. Illiberal attitudes and governance are making a serious comeback.

I'm guessing that's a link I don't want to click while at work...!

MarkSenior said:

People may be telling pollsters that they are supporting the Greens but when they get a chance to vote for them they just cant be assed and stay at home

Well it'll be the other way around for me. If I get the chance to vote for them at the GE I will do. If not then I'll stay at home as there'll not be anything else worth considering on the ballot paper - that's for certain.

GeoffM said:

Did you exist?

It's just that you haven't posted since and I'm thinking of calling the Metaphysical Police.

I wish we still had a "Like" button.

AndyJS said:

This poll represents a 22 point drop in support for the three established parties compared to 2010.

Alternatively, an 8 point drop for the two established parties. There's long been a protest party; their identity has changed.

Tissue_Price said:

AndyJS said:

This poll represents a 22 point drop in support for the three established parties compared to 2010.

Alternatively, an 8 point drop for the two established parties. There's long been a protest party; their identity has changed.

Its nice to read a rational comment.
The poll shows the governing parties on 37 and the opposition on 31

Scott_P said:

@thetimes: Tomorrow's front page: Ukip 'fixing' selection of candidates, emails claim http://t.co/jv4IoO8InA

How many of them are German?

RobD said:

isam said:

Migration watch I presume?

Sun Politics ‏@Sun_Politics · 9m9 minutes ago
EXCL: Up to one million EU migrants will still flock to UK - despite PM's reforms, think tank claims: http://spr.ly/6017t0ft

Over what time scale? The next 10 years, 10 minutes??

Edit: 10 years, for those to lazy to click on the link!

Thanks for the edit - I was :-)

isam said:

Migration watch I presume?

Sun Politics ‏@Sun_Politics · 9m9 minutes ago
EXCL: Up to one million EU migrants will still flock to UK - despite PM's reforms, think tank claims: http://spr.ly/6017t0ft

''Commenting on the Prime Minister's speech this morning, Lord Green of Deddington, Chairman of Migration Watch UK, said:

"We welcome the Prime Minister’s speech in which he reaffirmed his commitment to a net migration target. Without measures taken so far, net migration would undoubtedly be even higher than its present level.

That said, there is much more to be done. Restricting access to in-work benefits is welcome and will be perceived as fair by the public although it is difficult to say what impact this will have on numbers. The taxpayer cannot go on subsidising employers that rely on low paid overseas labour for their business model.

We also welcome the commitment to reform the absurd and much abused rule that makes it easier for an EU national to bring their non-EU spouse to the UK than it is for a Brit to do the same." ''

Socrates said:

I find this sort of fetish bizarre, but there seems to be absolutely no reason for the government to ban the filming of consensual acts:

http://www.vice.com/en_uk/read/the-end-of-uk-bdsm-282

I wonder if the 1980-2000 period will be remembered as being the peak of a liberal society. Illiberal attitudes and governance are making a serious comeback.

What a stupid law, especially as it is only UK produced stuff, so basically government is giving Europe/US adult industry the upper hand and no sign of the EU bureaucrat in sight. It is like the internet doesn't exist.

Also, who the hell is going to adjudicate all of this, and some of those conditions sound really arbitrary.

peter_from_putney said:

Scott_P said:

@Sun_Politics: YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour and Tories tied on 32%:

CON 32%, LAB 32%, LD 8%, UKIP 15%, GRN 6%

A comforting poll for the Tories tonight, when needed. Just over 5 months to go now and to have any chance they really have to start edging ahead from hereon. 0.8% additional support per month required to give them 36%, -0.8% per month from Labour to give them 28% (both per this latest YouGov poll) would mean Blues 36%, Labour 28% ..... job done!
I'm off to do some more dreaming. Goodnight all.

Labour on 32 is surely the important figure. The governing parties are on 40. Isn't that the real test of public opinion?

Scott_P said:

More than a dozen activists previously loyal to the Eurosceptic party have resigned over perceived efforts by Mr Farage and his allies to remove long-serving Ukip members from standing as MPs and MEPs in winnable seats.

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4284542.ece

I shall definitely buy a copy tmrw, I wonder who is being shunted out? All the winnable seats seem to have big name (relative to UKIP) already in, and those that are vacant obviously aren't relevant as there is no disgruntled incumbent

Steven_Whaley said:

MarkSenior said:

There is no Green surge , their vote has fallen in nearly every single council by election they have contested since June including those in November . Their vote share is below 4%

If there's no Green surge then that probably means that I, as part of the Green surge, don't exist. That's a bit of a worry for me on all kinds of levels. I'm think I'm going to pop to the bathroom now and check the mirror to make sure I still exist.

And? The suspense is killing me. You can't just leave it like that.

Edit. Sorry, see this has been done already.

Socrates said:

NickPalmer said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

Wow. Great speech Dave. Any more 'change the face of the country' addresses you've got hidden up your sleeve between now and next May?

You're ignoring the poll that saw the Tories up 3% post speech.

I don't ignore any polls, but you're kidding yourself if you think the speech was popular TSE. This should have been a strong anti-UKIP fight back from Dave. Instead it's driven me (and there will be plenty others like me) into thinking we have no choice but to vote UKIP.

Right, off to bed now - long day tomorrow. Goodnight.

We often underestimate the salience effect of making a speech about another party's home issue. You have to do it sometimes, to show you're not totally useless on the subject, but making it a Big Keynote makes the issue into the key theme of the moment, which is good news for the other party and bad news for you. It's like Labour going big on the need for more aircraft carriers or the Tories saying the NHS is in crisis and they have a plan to save it.

Yes, but failure to do it would likely have the same effect. There is a lingering feeling among a huge chunk of Tory voters that Cameron isn't serious about EU renegotiation and isn't serious about reducing immigration. Whether he makes a big speech that says "we're do a bit but nothing more than this" or avoids the subject and hopes it goes away would have the same effect in terms of losing supporters. It just alters the timing.

The other big elephant in the room is the street grooming scandal. I'm not the only one shocked by the complete lack of response from the main parties, and it's bubbling under the surface for a lot of activists. If the government doesn't announce a national response, it's a recipe for blowing up in their faces when the next big news event on it comes and people ask what has been done since Rotherham.

The fact that Carswell defected tells you all you need to know about how seriously Cameron is taking EU negotiation..

Carswell is pretty well respected by politicians of all sides, and he explicitly said that Cameron was not really trying, but just wanted to do enough to get votes

There is very little chance UKIP would have beaten Carswell as a Tory in Clacton in my opinon, he wasn't leaving to save his seat, its because he sat there while Cameron explained how he was trying to pull the wool over peoples eyes

Scott_P said:

More than a dozen activists previously loyal to the Eurosceptic party have resigned over perceived efforts by Mr Farage and his allies to remove long-serving Ukip members from standing as MPs and MEPs in winnable seats.

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4284542.ece

'Farage and his allies' -- presumably Reckless and Carswell. After all they have not resigned over it.
Just as one Gordon Brown retires up pops another....

“immoral, undemocratic and deeply corrupt”

PS - from what some people seem to be writing about, there has just been a law passed to stop what St Nigel is doing to his party.

Tomorrow is going to be what poor old Norman Lamont once called "a difficult day" for his successor as Chancellor. It was not intended to be like this. Back in 2010 it was suspected that by this point the rainy day fund would be well topped up and all kinds of essential expenditure bribes would be getting brought into play. Instead George, like so many of his predecessors, has to admit that borrowing is higher than forecast and much higher than he would like.

The good news, and this picks up on Nick's point down thread, is that Labour politicians trying to pretend that they give tuppance, or even the odd £100bn about the deficit always look faintly ridiculous and incredible. It is something they try to avoid speaking about in the same way that sensible tories don't speak about the EU unless they absolutely have to.

But it would be silly to pretend that the credibility of the economic management of the tories is not going to take a dunt tomorrow. An electorate very used to being bribed will be disappointed. No doubt there will be some exciting schemes involving £100m here and £100m there to catch the leader writers' eye but tomorrow is when the failure to front load cuts onto an economy which might, in fairness, have been too weak to take them, comes home to roost.

Steven_Whaley said:

MarkSenior said:

There is no Green surge , their vote has fallen in nearly every single council by election they have contested since June including those in November . Their vote share is below 4%

If there's no Green surge then that probably means that I, as part of the Green surge, don't exist. That's a bit of a worry for me on all kinds of levels. I'm think I'm going to pop to the bathroom now and check the mirror to make sure I still exist.

Don't worry too much - you exist all right, but its just as a figment of your own imagination. Quite a number of scientists are basing a whole cosmology around that thesis so its quite respectable.

TGOHF said:

Tykejohnno said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Bicester chosen as new garden city with 13,000 homes

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-30287273

I wonder if 13 thousand new homes and thousands of more people coming to a area near you will affect tory mp Tony baldry vote ?

Increase his majority by 13,000 ?

What,the next GE in 6 months.

DavidL said:

Actually my best guess about rabbits tomorrow is an increase in the minimum wage. The cost to the government (who will recoup about 2/3 of any increase for those on in work benefits) would be relatively small and it shoots Labour's fox (if that is still allowed).

The Autumn statement is on Wed, not tomorrow!

Peter_the_Punter said:

corporeal said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Labour 3 point lead in new poll for @Independent

Con 28% (-2)
Lab 31% (+1)
LD 9% (NC)
UKIP 18% (-1)
Green 7% (+3)
Others 7% (NC)

Big two on 59%...

Yes, that's the big story - big two struggling to muster 60% between them, and it's no 'outlier'.

The Conservatives haven't polled below 30% ever, all the way back to 1832.

RobD said:

Tykejohnno said:

TGOHF said:

Tykejohnno said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Bicester chosen as new garden city with 13,000 homes

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-30287273

I wonder if 13 thousand new homes and thousands of more people coming to a area near you will affect tory mp Tony baldry vote ?

Increase his majority by 13,000 ?

What,the next GE in 6 months.

Well I assume those houses aren't going to be built in 6 months, LOL.

You got it ;-) proberly going to be a lot of angry people in Bicester with these plans and with a GE not to far away ;-)

DavidL said:

Tomorrow is going to be what poor old Norman Lamont once called "a difficult day" for his successor as Chancellor. It was not intended to be like this. Back in 2010 it was suspected that by this point the rainy day fund would be well topped up and all kinds of essential expenditure bribes would be getting brought into play. Instead George, like so many of his predecessors, has to admit that borrowing is higher than forecast and much higher than he would like.

The good news, and this picks up on Nick's point down thread, is that Labour politicians trying to pretend that they give tuppance, or even the odd £100bn about the deficit always look faintly ridiculous and incredible. It is something they try to avoid speaking about in the same way that sensible tories don't speak about the EU unless they absolutely have to.

But it would be silly to pretend that the credibility of the economic management of the tories is not going to take a dunt tomorrow. An electorate very used to being bribed will be disappointed. No doubt there will be some exciting schemes involving £100m here and £100m there to catch the leader writers' eye but tomorrow is when the failure to front load cuts onto an economy which might, in fairness, have been too weak to take them, comes home to roost.

Tomorrow is Tuesday.

As for deficit reduction
The govt has done well in cutting its spending and has been beating its spending targets year after year. Thats one reason why it can spend more on NHS.
The International Monetary Fund say the cyclically-adjusted deficit has come down from 10.3% of gross domestic product in 2009 to 4.1% this year. The govt have extended its reduction plan because of the Euro crisis. Was that wrong?
For those who complain about the deficit then they must say what bthey would do.
I suppose we could all clamour to have tax thresholds raised and petrol tax put up. Come on - hands up.

DavidL said:

Actually my best guess about rabbits tomorrow is an increase in the minimum wage. The cost to the government (who will recoup about 2/3 of any increase for those on in work benefits) would be relatively small and it shoots Labour's fox (if that is still allowed).

Yes, that's my guess too. It's a pretty obvious one. Osborne has carefully laid out the route, and Labour have helpfully signposted it.