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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the day Cameron and Clegg rushed to key marginals to announce new highway plans – here’s Marf’s take
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Tim Walker@ThatTimWalker·33 mins33 minutes ago
Only in this country could we start eulogising a man who has cost us all quite as much as Gordon Brown.
That a few gullible Tweeters who don’t really know what UKIP stands for could have been taken in by all this was one thing; but the story was picked up by first the Independent, then the London Evening Standard, IBTimes, and Pink News.
All did so in such a way that allowed people to believe the fraudulent Twitter feeds had in reality been officially sanctioned, even going so far as quoting the author of the fake accounts and allowing his words to go unchallenged. They repeated his lie that he was involved in a non-existent branches and referenced our fictional phone conversations. Pink News scraped the deepest depths of the barrel, shamelessly listing the names of UKIP MEPs and prospective Parliamentary Candidates who were still following the account, thereby implying that whether or not they believed the account was genuine, they agreed with the views the account espoused."
http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/12/01/Gullible-Left-Wing-Media-Taken-In-By-Fake-UKIP-Account
Can you imagine how sections of the press would report this if UKIP had adopted these vile tactics? http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/11265911/Calling-Ukip-candidate-by-Turkish-name-did-him-a-favour-says-Tory-MP-over-controversial-campaign-leaflet.html …
That said: I dislike him, dislike the divisive, insidious envy politics he promotes, and am genuinely fearful of what he would do to my (and my children's) economic prospects were he to be PM.
http://gawker.com/british-minister-explains-why-she-kept-saying-cock-in-1665189674?utm_campaign=socialflow_gawker_twitter&utm_source=gawker_twitter&utm_medium=socialflow
http://order-order.com/2014/12/01/russell-brand-flips-out-at-media-drags-female-human-shield/
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/dec/01/ashya-king-father-brett-treated-like-criminal-return-uk
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-30267675
Cutting ministerial pay, well that will tackle about 0.00000001% of the problem. How can you when asked about substantial spending cuts to balance the books reply with that and keep a straight face.
Anything which lowers the power and prestige of the government is a good thing.
As for Gordo standing down,I have opened a bottle of wine,only met him once,it was not a pleasant experience.
No Populus at all today, apparently? Have they taken an early Christmas break?
i think TSE pointed this out earlier.
Doesn't bode well for LAB most seats CON most votes if PK is right.
I still think that is the mostly likely outcome but we will see.
For another, the 2 billion a year is what we will be spending on HS2.
For another its not all that new - it was heralded last year.
For another the real cartoon should be one of German crumbling infrastructure.
http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/low-german-infrastructure-investment-worries-experts-a-990903-2.html
For another if Labour had not cancelled and stopped all road building we might be in a better place now.
Out of place I know but Marf must try harder.
Every serious interviewer will now know this is a weakness of Brand's - that he only likes friendly questions - and will seek to expose him on it.
The numpties on this site just got a lot more boorish.
No one ever said UNS is perfect for each seat. But 650 seats is a very large sample.
About Scotland: Labour only loses these seats on current vote distribution. Even a 36 - 30 split in SNP's favour eradicates their numerical seat advantage. In fact, with a 34 - 34 split, Labour gets 37 seats, SNP 15. Labour gains 2.5 seats for each percentage gained.
Mark Senior pointed out, even in 2009, SNP led Labour by several points. Labour beat SNP by 22 points in GE2010.
I agree that will not be repeated. But note Labour did not gain a single seat in Scotland even with a 2.5% swing in GE2010. There is room available. Things can change and does not have to change too much.
While in some ways the roads and NHS spending are rather obvious pre election bribes combined with shooting Balls's fox; there is an ominous subtext.
This all looks like "economic stimulus" required to prevent a slowdown next year. It has a whiff of the Barber boom about it.
SE: Con 50%, Lab 16%, UKIP 4%
SW: Con 43%, Lab 15%, UKIP 5%
East:Con 47%, Lab 20%, UKIP 4%
Now:
Con 37%, Lab 28%, UKIP 17%
Even between Conservative and Labour, there is a 10% swing to Labour induced by UKIP, of course.
Tories should look in their heartlands.
Thank you.
I do not see this funding getting going much by next year and there are in any event a whole string of road work projects that have been going on for years. This is the next lot. Sure there may be some increase at the margins but it is just publicity for new named projects that are part of a programme that was introduced some time back.
EG
''The government unveiled another attempt to kickstart infrastructure investment with a commitment to spend an extra £3bn a year, but gave little indication where the money would be spent.
The additional funds for capital investment will be found from cuts to government departmental budgets, George Osborne said, and will be available from 2015-16.'' (From Guardian 2013)
And back in 2013 the IMF urged infrastructure spending.
One party on the up.
It seems that the supply of overseas people who want to live here and/or by property here is essentially limitless...
History will record him as a man who restored Labour's economic credibility, who kept Britain out of the euro, who helped lead the global response to the financial crisis in 2008.
The books will also note the national minimum wage, the tax credits and the long period of economic growth that allowed him to pump billions into public services.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-30275321
Lets just pull apart the BS.
No Euro, because Tony wanted it, and Balls came up with 5 impossible tests to pass in the back of a cab.
Response to the global crisis my arse, so many mistakes.
Min wage fine, but I don't think that was a Brown's idea.
Tax credits are awful, complex, and counterproductive.
And what growth? BBC new favourite measure of GDP / capita, there was no growth for post Labour first period in office (when the global winds were flowing all one way). And that is with ever increasingly public borrowing / spending and massively expanded army of paper pushers adding no real value, all of which adds to official GDP figures.
The last ComRes poll was 30/30/9/19.
I think the polls of the last few days suggest the Lab lead has now risen to about 2% (or just above) from about 1% pre Rochester. UKIP has also slipped in the last 4 or 5 days.
So from the above base, if anyone is up it must be Lab.
Note: I have yet to see a copy of the embargoed poll, HINT HINT, MIKE & COMRES
Osborne's Buzzword Bingo
"Stonehenge" looks like the value bet, even at the shortened odds of 4/5.
There are few others I fancy.
DYOR.
And, to the person who asked earlier today: yes I'm 80%+ sure that the Conservatives are going to win outright.
The man is complete << self moderated>>
I shouldn't think there is any chance of him running, but he lives nearby (Shoreditch I think when not in LA) and I can imagine he might stick his nose in.. I actually know his PA quite well, she is a nice girl
He sure doesn't live in Grays anymore that's for sure!
''I see the BS about Gordon is overflowing...''
Yes indeed.
But he did restore Labour's economoic credibilty. Not with me, and the 'credibility' was all smoke and mirrors but he did restore it with the wider electorate and the dim media.
And of course he did keep us out of the Euro. A plain fact. The motives were not what he said but it is a plain fact.
Now I am aware I am damning him with faint praise and just to show deep down I agree with you, let us consider the 'independence' to the Bank of England so widely touted.
What he actually did was neuter the Bank of England and the governor, such that the then governor nearly resigned. He took away responsibility for managing banks from the BoE and set up the FSA. We all know how that worked out, and he also took away responsibility for setting interest rates and gave it to a committee which he appointed and which included people like Blanchflower.
The whole eposode is Godon Brown in a nutshell.
Its hard to find one thing Brown did that was any good and even on the Euro - if we had tried to go in it was moot if there was a majority for a referendum win and trying to go in might have crippled labour and united the tories - so even that was hardly win win.
Now then how many might that be? 'new homes??
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/mayor/boris-johnson-under-fire-over-pitiful-number-of-homes-built-in-london-last-year-9414410.html
'Fewer than half the 42,000 new homes that Boris Johnson claims are needed to tackle London’s housing crisis were actually built last year, according to new official figures.'
''Housing charities described the total of 16,800 completions - down five per cent - as “pitiful” ''
So thats 75% of 16,800 homes were bought by people from overseas (and this at a time when many French people are fleeing their socialist govt).
12,600 homes. In the vast metropolis that is Greater London. This is supposedly a basis for draconian law changes? Only in numptyland.
Con 28% (-2)
Lab 31% (+1)
LD 9% (NC)
UKIP 18% (-1)
Green 7% (+3)
Others 7% (NC)
So up 1%+ post Rochester - Rochester still damaging Con to some degree.
Perhaps prompting isn't such a big issue after all*
*More evidence needed.
EICIPM
http://www.mediafire.com/view/l8rd7atd257yprk/YouGov polls 12 months to 30 November inc Green 2014.jpg#
LD 50%, Lab 22%, Con 9%, Other 18%
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/10/27/ukip-greens-and-new-politics-protest/
Apparently Unite have gone one better than the Ed Miliband envelopes. They have sent out "mock ballot papers" showing people what a vote for Neil would look like
I'm sorry. If a new Tory leader adopted a different position in future of course I'd be happy to reconsider my vote.
Ed off the telly, back on it between March and May 2015.
Interesting conversation tonight with a typical C2 moaning about the Tories, clearly UKIP inclined....but nothing would be worse than Ed Miliband.
Fear will make him reluctantly vote Tory in 2015.
I think what's happening is that left leaning voters are realising that there's an alternative for them other than the same old choices - in the same was as the right began to a couple of years ago. I think, in fairness, UKIP can take some of the credit for the growth in the Green vote. The left have looked at how the right have got more choosy and thought "Yeah... we'll have some of that too please."
Whatever the reasons for the Green surge, long may it continue.
http://voteforpolicies.org.uk/
And that includes Islington South
http://voteforpolicies.org.uk/constituency-results?place=Islington+South+and+Finsbury
you may be out of luck iSam
But in effect you are deserting the only party that could give you a referendum on EU membership.
The tory party has not shrugged its shoulders but if you can look at UKIP and say you want to support it then prepare to be judged by the company you keep. I'm sure you will be pleased to be on St Nigel's Christmans card list.