Incoming extinction level event for the Tories – politicalbetting.com
Comments
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The Conservatives have been very unlucky with the pandemic and Ukraine, but they've also made a ruinous hash of Brexit (itself a complete accident born of political expediency,) and have ruled for the good of nobody and nothing, save for the bank balances of plutocrats, landlords and wealthy pensioners. If they are to be crushed then frankly they deserve everything that's coming to them.TimS said:
We’ve been through a difficult few years as a country. Certainly the last 8 years but arguably the last 17, since the run on Northern Rock.RochdalePioneers said:
Oh I don't know. Revenge works - an awful lot of people want to demolish the Tory party for an entertainingly large number of reasons.Casino_Royale said:
Unlike 1997 this is an election motivated by revenge, not hope.Leon said:The worst signal for the Tories is that right wingers on here are looking at these apocalyptic polls and shrugging and saying “meh, whatevs, they deserve it”
Almost everyone has deserted them
And not healthy.
What we get instead will have its own problems - we can all list them. So its not about hope, its about retribution. People want E.L.E. because they don't want a government this egregiously awful again in their lifetimes. But that's the rational side. On the emotional side people want E.L.E. because they want to punish the Tory party.
Sorry, I know the remaining 6 Tory activists hate this. I joined a LibDem party reduced to a minibus full. It isn't fun. But sometimes it is justified. And oh bioy, is this justified.
The national rejoicing the day after E.L.E. will be something utterly wonderful.
It’s not fair to blame the Tories for everything, but Leviticus 16, 21-22 says it all:
Then Aaron shall lay both his hands on the head of the live goat, and confess over it all the iniquities of the people of Israel, and all their transgressions, all their sins, putting them on the head of the goat, and sending it away into the wilderness by means of someone designated for the task. The goat shall bear on itself all their iniquities to a barren region; and the goat shall be set free in the wilderness.7 -
Huh? Tories end on more seats WITHOUT tactical voting?ToryJim said:These are the figures with and without tactical voting
🚨📊 || MRP Poll from @ElectCalculus
/ @FindoutnowUK:
Without Tactical Voting
🌹 LAB: 493 (+297)
🌳 CON: 72 (-300)
🔶 LDM: 39 (+31)
🎗️ SNP: 22 (-26)
🌼 PLC: 4 (+2)
🌍 GRN: 2 (+1)
With Tactical Voting:
🌹 LAB: 476 (+280)
🌳 CON: 66 (-306)
🔶 LDM: 59 (+51)
🎗️ SNP: 26 (-22)
🌼 PLC: 3 (+1)
🌍 GRN: 2 (+1)0 -
You can’t help yourself, can you?Casino_Royale said:
Ah, the child has turned up.Heathener said:
Clearly we can’t overestimate the importance of tactical votingSystem said:Incoming extinction level event for the Tories – politicalbetting.com?GENERAL ELECTION 2024: FIRST MRP POLL? We at @electcalculus and @findoutnow asked over 10k people for @DailyMailUK who they intended to vote for in the general election. Seats tally CON: 66 LAB: 476 LD: 59 Reform: 0 Green: 2 This accounts for tactical voting.
Well, in 1997 Tony was hailed as the Messiah so things could only go one way from there.Casino_Royale said:
Unlike 1997 this is an election motivated by revenge, not hope.Leon said:The worst signal for the Tories is that right wingers on here are looking at these apocalyptic polls and shrugging and saying “meh, whatevs, they deserve it”
Almost everyone has deserted them
And not healthy.
That’s why I think Labour will win at least 3 terms, because Starmer starts from much lower expectations. Things really can only get better this time.
And that’s very, very, healthy.
But yeah you’re right. We’re seething with the tories and they’re about to get the mother of all kickings. You screwed with just about everything that makes for wellbeing in this nation. So now take your medicine.
Isn't it past your bedtime?
The moment anyone says something you don’t like you go Ad Hominem.
Do you realise how much you damage the Conservative cause on here by being so personally nasty and abusive to people?
If you don’t now, then do please reflect on this during the long wilderness years.0 -
What's interesting, though, is that you think Labour is winning because it's representing the common man, others because it does the youth, others because they think SKS is a secret socialist, others because they think he's the real Tory and others because they think he'll get a serious grasp on migration.rottenborough said:
The country has been ruined thanks to around 150k of aging pensioner tory members who have given us Johnson, Truss and Sunak in succession. They are completely out of touch with the modern world and their party is about to be battered.kyf_100 said:
An interesting venn diagram (with a very small intersection I imagine!)Sean_F said:
Home owners, without mortgages, who like mass migration.kyf_100 said:
It's quite something that the Conservatives have destroyed both their right and left flank.Leon said:
They let in 2m migrants in 3 years. An act of such astounding irresponsibility, so evilly reckless, so utterly unasked for, so obviously unmandated, I want the Tories destroyed forever. I want them pulped into nothing. I want them turned into political atoms and dispersed by the solar windsMonksfield said:
I wonder why? Maybe it’s because the Tories and their obsessions have simply not addressed the nation’s concerns. And after being huckstered by BoZo, the people have got an XXXL sized dose of buyers remorse.Leon said:The worst signal for the Tories is that right wingers on here are looking at these apocalyptic polls and shrugging and saying “meh, whatevs, they deserve it”
Almost everyone has deserted them
If you're a small state, social liberal, the party left you a decade ago.
If you're a small c, statist conservative worried about immigration, as you say, the 2m immigrants in the last 2 years say hi.
Who is the modern conservative party for, exactly?
The fundamental problem is the tory membership. It is not a mass party representing various walks of life any more.
He's quite happy for all of you to project at the moment, and garner your votes, but some of you are going to be disappointed.1 -
No. Could be Green voters (pro-indy) in the cities, Labour voters in SCon/SNP marginals in rural areas.TimS said:
Those are odd results. How on earth do the SNP do better with tactical voting? Isn’t the entire anti-SNP voting pattern in Scotland driven by unionist tactical voting?ToryJim said:These are the figures with and without tactical voting
🚨📊 || MRP Poll from @ElectCalculus
/ @FindoutnowUK:
Without Tactical Voting
🌹 LAB: 493 (+297)
🌳 CON: 72 (-300)
🔶 LDM: 39 (+31)
🎗️ SNP: 22 (-26)
🌼 PLC: 4 (+2)
🌍 GRN: 2 (+1)
With Tactical Voting:
🌹 LAB: 476 (+280)
🌳 CON: 66 (-306)
🔶 LDM: 59 (+51)
🎗️ SNP: 26 (-22)
🌼 PLC: 3 (+1)
🌍 GRN: 2 (+1)0 -
Clearly no Unionist tactical voting if the SNP end up with more seats.ToryJim said:These are the figures with and without tactical voting
🚨📊 || MRP Poll from @ElectCalculus
/ @FindoutnowUK:
Without Tactical Voting
🌹 LAB: 493 (+297)
🌳 CON: 72 (-300)
🔶 LDM: 39 (+31)
🎗️ SNP: 22 (-26)
🌼 PLC: 4 (+2)
🌍 GRN: 2 (+1)
With Tactical Voting:
🌹 LAB: 476 (+280)
🌳 CON: 66 (-306)
🔶 LDM: 59 (+51)
🎗️ SNP: 26 (-22)
🌼 PLC: 3 (+1)
🌍 GRN: 2 (+1)0 -
Will someone explain to the youth (before OR after their dragooned, like the Red Chinese "Volunteers" of 1950) that "goat" in this and other Bible excerpts, does NOT mean "greatest of all time"?TimS said:
We’ve been through a difficult few years as a country. Certainly the last 8 years but arguably the last 17, since the run on Northern Rock.RochdalePioneers said:
Oh I don't know. Revenge works - an awful lot of people want to demolish the Tory party for an entertainingly large number of reasons.Casino_Royale said:
Unlike 1997 this is an election motivated by revenge, not hope.Leon said:The worst signal for the Tories is that right wingers on here are looking at these apocalyptic polls and shrugging and saying “meh, whatevs, they deserve it”
Almost everyone has deserted them
And not healthy.
What we get instead will have its own problems - we can all list them. So its not about hope, its about retribution. People want E.L.E. because they don't want a government this egregiously awful again in their lifetimes. But that's the rational side. On the emotional side people want E.L.E. because they want to punish the Tory party.
Sorry, I know the remaining 6 Tory activists hate this. I joined a LibDem party reduced to a minibus full. It isn't fun. But sometimes it is justified. And oh bioy, is this justified.
The national rejoicing the day after E.L.E. will be something utterly wonderful.
It’s not fair to blame the Tories for everything, but Leviticus 16, 21-22 says it all:
Then Aaron shall lay both his hands on the head of the live goat, and confess over it all the iniquities of the people of Israel, and all their transgressions, all their sins, putting them on the head of the goat, and sending it away into the wilderness by means of someone designated for the task. The goat shall bear on itself all their iniquities to a barren region; and the goat shall be set free in the wilderness.
Of course, actual caprines may disagree with that statement . . . "baah!"1 -
What about it? We will have destroyed the Tories. Anything that follows will be better.Casino_Royale said:
And the day after that?RochdalePioneers said:
Oh I don't know. Revenge works - an awful lot of people want to demolish the Tory party for an entertainingly large number of reasons.Casino_Royale said:
Unlike 1997 this is an election motivated by revenge, not hope.Leon said:The worst signal for the Tories is that right wingers on here are looking at these apocalyptic polls and shrugging and saying “meh, whatevs, they deserve it”
Almost everyone has deserted them
And not healthy.
What we get instead will have its own problems - we can all list them. So its not about hope, its about retribution. People want E.L.E. because they don't want a government this egregiously awful again in their lifetimes. But that's the rational side. On the emotional side people want E.L.E. because they want to punish the Tory party.
Sorry, I know the remaining 6 Tory activists hate this. I joined a LibDem party reduced to a minibus full. It isn't fun. But sometimes it is justified. And oh bioy, is this justified.
The national rejoicing the day after E.L.E. will be something utterly wonderful.
I know you disagree. And I'm sorry. But them's the breaks.7 -
Labour are 4/1 on Oddschecker. I think that's probably about right for a rural constituency that usually weighs the Con vote but also where Sunak is locally unpopular.eek said:
Richmond is basically Richmond (small market town), a large amount of the Dales, Nothallerton (has Betty's but no Booths) and Catterick..pigeon said:
Richmond is all farmers and old people. If the Conservative Party can't even hold on there, they are finished.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:I'll be amazed if Sunak holds on in Richmond.
EDIT: to clarify, Sunak is not going to lose his seat. How many troops he has left at the end of all this, well, that's a different matter, of course.
With Catterick it could easily go Red - there is a LOT of new buildings there...
It'd be fun if it happened, but I'm not betting at those odds. It would require serious GOTV and tactical voting to make it happen.0 -
Not necessarily. If it's to keep the Tories down and with a size ten boot into their collective goolies, then ...TimS said:
Those are odd results. How on earth do the SNP do better with tactical voting? Isn’t the entire anti-SNP voting pattern in Scotland driven by unionist tactical voting?ToryJim said:These are the figures with and without tactical voting
🚨📊 || MRP Poll from @ElectCalculus
/ @FindoutnowUK:
Without Tactical Voting
🌹 LAB: 493 (+297)
🌳 CON: 72 (-300)
🔶 LDM: 39 (+31)
🎗️ SNP: 22 (-26)
🌼 PLC: 4 (+2)
🌍 GRN: 2 (+1)
With Tactical Voting:
🌹 LAB: 476 (+280)
🌳 CON: 66 (-306)
🔶 LDM: 59 (+51)
🎗️ SNP: 26 (-22)
🌼 PLC: 3 (+1)
🌍 GRN: 2 (+1)
0 -
From day one?Casino_Royale said:
Do you want SKS being a virtual dictator for 5 years?Leon said:
That’s how I see it. Get rid. We need a confident populist right wing party that isn’t terrified of the guardian or what their Islington neighbours will think. It will arise in time, politics abhors a vacuum. The trouble is we must endure at least a term of labour but 1. They deserve a go and who knows they may do ok and 2. It is literally impossible to feel sad as this bunch of Tories departsSean_F said:Perhaps, like the 1920’s Liberals, a party just stops representing any significant element of the population. The Conservatives’ strategy of talking right, acting left, and lining their pockets seems to have reached the end of the road.
Centre right politics is probably pointless now, in the UK.0 -
I think the failure of the Conservatives goes back further, to austerity. They imposed austerity, but then never had a working plan to heal after austerity. Brexit promised miracles it couldn't deliver. Johnson promised miracles he couldn't deliver. Truss promised miracles that were so crazy she was dumped in weeks.pigeon said:
The Conservatives have been very unlucky with the pandemic and Ukraine, but they've also made a ruinous hash of Brexit (itself a complete accident born of political expediency,) and have ruled for the good of nobody and nothing, save for the bank balances of plutocrats, landlords and wealthy pensioners. If they are to be crushed then frankly they deserve everything that's coming to them.TimS said:
We’ve been through a difficult few years as a country. Certainly the last 8 years but arguably the last 17, since the run on Northern Rock.RochdalePioneers said:
Oh I don't know. Revenge works - an awful lot of people want to demolish the Tory party for an entertainingly large number of reasons.Casino_Royale said:
Unlike 1997 this is an election motivated by revenge, not hope.Leon said:The worst signal for the Tories is that right wingers on here are looking at these apocalyptic polls and shrugging and saying “meh, whatevs, they deserve it”
Almost everyone has deserted them
And not healthy.
What we get instead will have its own problems - we can all list them. So its not about hope, its about retribution. People want E.L.E. because they don't want a government this egregiously awful again in their lifetimes. But that's the rational side. On the emotional side people want E.L.E. because they want to punish the Tory party.
Sorry, I know the remaining 6 Tory activists hate this. I joined a LibDem party reduced to a minibus full. It isn't fun. But sometimes it is justified. And oh bioy, is this justified.
The national rejoicing the day after E.L.E. will be something utterly wonderful.
It’s not fair to blame the Tories for everything, but Leviticus 16, 21-22 says it all:
Then Aaron shall lay both his hands on the head of the live goat, and confess over it all the iniquities of the people of Israel, and all their transgressions, all their sins, putting them on the head of the goat, and sending it away into the wilderness by means of someone designated for the task. The goat shall bear on itself all their iniquities to a barren region; and the goat shall be set free in the wilderness.4 -
As someone who ticks the first two boxes and isn't as bothered about the third as many... No, they're not for me either.Sean_F said:
Home owners, without mortgages, who like mass migration.kyf_100 said:
It's quite something that the Conservatives have destroyed both their right and left flank.Leon said:
They let in 2m migrants in 3 years. An act of such astounding irresponsibility, so evilly reckless, so utterly unasked for, so obviously unmandated, I want the Tories destroyed forever. I want them pulped into nothing. I want them turned into political atoms and dispersed by the solar windsMonksfield said:
I wonder why? Maybe it’s because the Tories and their obsessions have simply not addressed the nation’s concerns. And after being huckstered by BoZo, the people have got an XXXL sized dose of buyers remorse.Leon said:The worst signal for the Tories is that right wingers on here are looking at these apocalyptic polls and shrugging and saying “meh, whatevs, they deserve it”
Almost everyone has deserted them
If you're a small state, social liberal, the party left you a decade ago.
If you're a small c, statist conservative worried about immigration, as you say, the 2m immigrants in the last 2 years say hi.
Who is the modern conservative party for, exactly?
Suspect that being young enough to be in work is enough to rule me out. At a guess, there are two main groups left.
Retired homeowners is one, though the societal changes of immigration (real and feared/imagined) are flaking many of them off to Reform. Leaving:
People Like Rishi. Citizens of nowhere who have enough cash to buy themselves away from the enshittification of the country.3 -
The tories had a majority of 80 and didn't manage to prosecute their agenda.Casino_Royale said:
Do you want SKS being a virtual dictator for 5 years?Leon said:
That’s how I see it. Get rid. We need a confident populist right wing party that isn’t terrified of the guardian or what their Islington neighbours will think. It will arise in time, politics abhors a vacuum. The trouble is we must endure at least a term of labour but 1. They deserve a go and who knows they may do ok and 2. It is literally impossible to feel sad as this bunch of Tories departsSean_F said:Perhaps, like the 1920’s Liberals, a party just stops representing any significant element of the population. The Conservatives’ strategy of talking right, acting left, and lining their pockets seems to have reached the end of the road.
Centre right politics is probably pointless now, in the UK.1 -
Remember that it's the Tories that do the most tactical voting in Scotland. Their vote is far more suppressed than Labour's.SandyRentool said:
Clearly no Unionist tactical voting if the SNP end up with more seats.ToryJim said:These are the figures with and without tactical voting
🚨📊 || MRP Poll from @ElectCalculus
/ @FindoutnowUK:
Without Tactical Voting
🌹 LAB: 493 (+297)
🌳 CON: 72 (-300)
🔶 LDM: 39 (+31)
🎗️ SNP: 22 (-26)
🌼 PLC: 4 (+2)
🌍 GRN: 2 (+1)
With Tactical Voting:
🌹 LAB: 476 (+280)
🌳 CON: 66 (-306)
🔶 LDM: 59 (+51)
🎗️ SNP: 26 (-22)
🌼 PLC: 3 (+1)
🌍 GRN: 2 (+1)1 -
Well, the Tories shouldn't have been promising it for the last decade and a half.Casino_Royale said:
They can say what they like.bondegezou said:
I believe Labour have said they want to reduce overall immigration, with a focus on skills training to fill gaps in the labour market, like with healthcare.pigeon said:
Mass migration shores up the tax base, house prices and rental incomes. Plus, most of the population doesn't pay attention to immigration for work or study purposes. It's therefore small wonder that the current Government uses boat people bashing to try to shore up its base, but makes only fitful attempts in other areas.Sean_F said:
I do wonder what they were thinking (do they think?)Leon said:
They let in 2m migrants in 3 years. An act of such astounding irresponsibility, so evilly reckless, so utterly unasked for, so obviously unmandated, I want the Tories destroyed forever. I want them pulped into nothing. I want them turned into political atoms and dispersed by the solar windsMonksfield said:
I wonder why? Maybe it’s because the Tories and their obsessions have simply not addressed the nation’s concerns. And after being huckstered by BoZo, the people have got an XXXL sized dose of buyers remorse.Leon said:The worst signal for the Tories is that right wingers on here are looking at these apocalyptic polls and shrugging and saying “meh, whatevs, they deserve it”
Almost everyone has deserted them
Labour will be fixated on the boat people whilst leaving everyone else alone for all the same reasons (with bells on, because so many on the left are for open borders.)
I'm not sure any governing party has what it takes to stop mass immigration, whilst also developing the economy.
It requires too much of a change to our economic model and the international treaty and legal system.1 -
Tiipped it twice, once last night and again in the afternoon thread at 25/1.Foxy said:
The Lab on 500+ seats is the best ELE punt on BFX. Priced at 22 at the moment.ToryJim said:These are the figures with and without tactical voting
🚨📊 || MRP Poll from @ElectCalculus
/ @FindoutnowUK:
Without Tactical Voting
🌹 LAB: 493 (+297)
🌳 CON: 72 (-300)
🔶 LDM: 39 (+31)
🎗️ SNP: 22 (-26)
🌼 PLC: 4 (+2)
🌍 GRN: 2 (+1)
With Tactical Voting:
🌹 LAB: 476 (+280)
🌳 CON: 66 (-306)
🔶 LDM: 59 (+51)
🎗️ SNP: 26 (-22)
🌼 PLC: 3 (+1)
🌍 GRN: 2 (+1)
I'm on for £20.0 -
Not really believing this result for the moment.
Reading the discussion below, I think the MRPness of this poll is genuine enough, but something is amiss.
And I think it is that there local election rounds, if not by elections, aren't showing this level of collapse, as Norfolk notes. I'm struggling to think that they will do worse than in the preceding locals, unpopular incumbents tend to do better don't they? (May in 2017 happened from a very different circumstance).
Unless the public have given up on even "sending a message" to the Tories - there is nothing more they can do to put things right, no change to be made, so why kick my local councillor as well, why not just leave the deed to GE day?
I wonder, but I don't actually believe that.0 -
I suspect we'll all be disappointed to a degree, I was disappointed by Blair... but not a fraction of the disappointment I have felt under Cameron, May, Johnson, Truss and Sunak.Casino_Royale said:
What's interesting, though, is that you think Labour is winning because it's representing the common man, others because it does the youth, others because they think SKS is a secret socialist, others because they think he's the real Tory and others because they think he'll get a serious grasp on migration.rottenborough said:
The country has been ruined thanks to around 150k of aging pensioner tory members who have given us Johnson, Truss and Sunak in succession. They are completely out of touch with the modern world and their party is about to be battered.kyf_100 said:
An interesting venn diagram (with a very small intersection I imagine!)Sean_F said:
Home owners, without mortgages, who like mass migration.kyf_100 said:
It's quite something that the Conservatives have destroyed both their right and left flank.Leon said:
They let in 2m migrants in 3 years. An act of such astounding irresponsibility, so evilly reckless, so utterly unasked for, so obviously unmandated, I want the Tories destroyed forever. I want them pulped into nothing. I want them turned into political atoms and dispersed by the solar windsMonksfield said:
I wonder why? Maybe it’s because the Tories and their obsessions have simply not addressed the nation’s concerns. And after being huckstered by BoZo, the people have got an XXXL sized dose of buyers remorse.Leon said:The worst signal for the Tories is that right wingers on here are looking at these apocalyptic polls and shrugging and saying “meh, whatevs, they deserve it”
Almost everyone has deserted them
If you're a small state, social liberal, the party left you a decade ago.
If you're a small c, statist conservative worried about immigration, as you say, the 2m immigrants in the last 2 years say hi.
Who is the modern conservative party for, exactly?
The fundamental problem is the tory membership. It is not a mass party representing various walks of life any more.
He's quite happy for all of you to project at the moment, and garner your votes, but some of you are going to be disappointed.0 -
In Thames Water's case, literal enshitificationStuartinromford said:
As someone who ticks the first two boxes and isn't as bothered about the third as many... No, they're not for me either.Sean_F said:
Home owners, without mortgages, who like mass migration.kyf_100 said:
It's quite something that the Conservatives have destroyed both their right and left flank.Leon said:
They let in 2m migrants in 3 years. An act of such astounding irresponsibility, so evilly reckless, so utterly unasked for, so obviously unmandated, I want the Tories destroyed forever. I want them pulped into nothing. I want them turned into political atoms and dispersed by the solar windsMonksfield said:
I wonder why? Maybe it’s because the Tories and their obsessions have simply not addressed the nation’s concerns. And after being huckstered by BoZo, the people have got an XXXL sized dose of buyers remorse.Leon said:The worst signal for the Tories is that right wingers on here are looking at these apocalyptic polls and shrugging and saying “meh, whatevs, they deserve it”
Almost everyone has deserted them
If you're a small state, social liberal, the party left you a decade ago.
If you're a small c, statist conservative worried about immigration, as you say, the 2m immigrants in the last 2 years say hi.
Who is the modern conservative party for, exactly?
Suspect that being young enough to be in work is enough to rule me out. At a guess, there are two main groups left.
Retired homeowners is one, though the societal changes of immigration (real and feared/imagined) are flaking many of them off to Reform. Leaving:
People Like Rishi. Citizens of nowhere who have enough cash to buy themselves away from the enshittification of the country.
0 -
It will be ironic if the deciding factor against Sunak in Richmond is the number of Treasury civil cervants moved to the area.rottenborough said:
The country has been ruined thanks to around 150k of aging pensioner tory members who have given us Johnson, Truss and Sunak in succession. They are completely out of touch with the modern world and their party is about to be battered.kyf_100 said:
An interesting venn diagram (with a very small intersection I imagine!)Sean_F said:
Home owners, without mortgages, who like mass migration.kyf_100 said:
It's quite something that the Conservatives have destroyed both their right and left flank.Leon said:
They let in 2m migrants in 3 years. An act of such astounding irresponsibility, so evilly reckless, so utterly unasked for, so obviously unmandated, I want the Tories destroyed forever. I want them pulped into nothing. I want them turned into political atoms and dispersed by the solar windsMonksfield said:
I wonder why? Maybe it’s because the Tories and their obsessions have simply not addressed the nation’s concerns. And after being huckstered by BoZo, the people have got an XXXL sized dose of buyers remorse.Leon said:The worst signal for the Tories is that right wingers on here are looking at these apocalyptic polls and shrugging and saying “meh, whatevs, they deserve it”
Almost everyone has deserted them
If you're a small state, social liberal, the party left you a decade ago.
If you're a small c, statist conservative worried about immigration, as you say, the 2m immigrants in the last 2 years say hi.
Who is the modern conservative party for, exactly?
The fundamental problem is the tory membership. It is not a mass party representing various walks of life any more.0 -
Yes they’re purely looking at anti-Tory tactical voting so perhaps not that useful.SandyRentool said:
Clearly no Unionist tactical voting if the SNP end up with more seats.ToryJim said:These are the figures with and without tactical voting
🚨📊 || MRP Poll from @ElectCalculus
/ @FindoutnowUK:
Without Tactical Voting
🌹 LAB: 493 (+297)
🌳 CON: 72 (-300)
🔶 LDM: 39 (+31)
🎗️ SNP: 22 (-26)
🌼 PLC: 4 (+2)
🌍 GRN: 2 (+1)
With Tactical Voting:
🌹 LAB: 476 (+280)
🌳 CON: 66 (-306)
🔶 LDM: 59 (+51)
🎗️ SNP: 26 (-22)
🌼 PLC: 3 (+1)
🌍 GRN: 2 (+1)0 -
4
-
Yeah obviously there are assumptions made when applying tactical voting filters but when it comes out with shifts like this you need to question whether the assumptions are correct. Whilst it’s an interesting pin in the board I think the totality of evidence doesn’t support the extremity of this potential outcome.TimS said:
Those are odd results. How on earth do the SNP do better with tactical voting? Isn’t the entire anti-SNP voting pattern in Scotland driven by unionist tactical voting?ToryJim said:These are the figures with and without tactical voting
🚨📊 || MRP Poll from @ElectCalculus
/ @FindoutnowUK:
Without Tactical Voting
🌹 LAB: 493 (+297)
🌳 CON: 72 (-300)
🔶 LDM: 39 (+31)
🎗️ SNP: 22 (-26)
🌼 PLC: 4 (+2)
🌍 GRN: 2 (+1)
With Tactical Voting:
🌹 LAB: 476 (+280)
🌳 CON: 66 (-306)
🔶 LDM: 59 (+51)
🎗️ SNP: 26 (-22)
🌼 PLC: 3 (+1)
🌍 GRN: 2 (+1)0 -
Two clues: "You screwed" and "So now take your medicine."Heathener said:
You can’t help yourself, can you?Casino_Royale said:
Ah, the child has turned up.Heathener said:
Clearly we can’t overestimate the importance of tactical votingSystem said:Incoming extinction level event for the Tories – politicalbetting.com?GENERAL ELECTION 2024: FIRST MRP POLL? We at @electcalculus and @findoutnow asked over 10k people for @DailyMailUK who they intended to vote for in the general election. Seats tally CON: 66 LAB: 476 LD: 59 Reform: 0 Green: 2 This accounts for tactical voting.
Well, in 1997 Tony was hailed as the Messiah so things could only go one way from there.Casino_Royale said:
Unlike 1997 this is an election motivated by revenge, not hope.Leon said:The worst signal for the Tories is that right wingers on here are looking at these apocalyptic polls and shrugging and saying “meh, whatevs, they deserve it”
Almost everyone has deserted them
And not healthy.
That’s why I think Labour will win at least 3 terms, because Starmer starts from much lower expectations. Things really can only get better this time.
And that’s very, very, healthy.
But yeah you’re right. We’re seething with the tories and they’re about to get the mother of all kickings. You screwed with just about everything that makes for wellbeing in this nation. So now take your medicine.
Isn't it past your bedtime?
The moment anyone says something you don’t like you go Ad Hominem.
Do you realise how much you damage the Conservative cause on here by being so personally nasty and abusive to people?
If you don’t now, then do please reflect on this during the long wilderness years.
Your posts are both patronising and sanctimonious, and you seemingly, have zero self or social awareness. You make stuff up about yourself and your network, inconsistently, to try and buy some credibility but it really insults our intelligence.
I am very rude to you because I have as much respect for you as you do for yourself or for others.
If you want that to change that's in your gift.0 -
And took decisions to protect current voters (in 2010), without worrying about potential future voters.bondegezou said:
I think the failure of the Conservatives goes back further, to austerity. They imposed austerity, but then never had a working plan to heal after austerity. Brexit promised miracles it couldn't deliver. Johnson promised miracles he couldn't deliver. Truss promised miracles that were so crazy she was dumped in weeks.pigeon said:
The Conservatives have been very unlucky with the pandemic and Ukraine, but they've also made a ruinous hash of Brexit (itself a complete accident born of political expediency,) and have ruled for the good of nobody and nothing, save for the bank balances of plutocrats, landlords and wealthy pensioners. If they are to be crushed then frankly they deserve everything that's coming to them.TimS said:
We’ve been through a difficult few years as a country. Certainly the last 8 years but arguably the last 17, since the run on Northern Rock.RochdalePioneers said:
Oh I don't know. Revenge works - an awful lot of people want to demolish the Tory party for an entertainingly large number of reasons.Casino_Royale said:
Unlike 1997 this is an election motivated by revenge, not hope.Leon said:The worst signal for the Tories is that right wingers on here are looking at these apocalyptic polls and shrugging and saying “meh, whatevs, they deserve it”
Almost everyone has deserted them
And not healthy.
What we get instead will have its own problems - we can all list them. So its not about hope, its about retribution. People want E.L.E. because they don't want a government this egregiously awful again in their lifetimes. But that's the rational side. On the emotional side people want E.L.E. because they want to punish the Tory party.
Sorry, I know the remaining 6 Tory activists hate this. I joined a LibDem party reduced to a minibus full. It isn't fun. But sometimes it is justified. And oh bioy, is this justified.
The national rejoicing the day after E.L.E. will be something utterly wonderful.
It’s not fair to blame the Tories for everything, but Leviticus 16, 21-22 says it all:
Then Aaron shall lay both his hands on the head of the live goat, and confess over it all the iniquities of the people of Israel, and all their transgressions, all their sins, putting them on the head of the goat, and sending it away into the wilderness by means of someone designated for the task. The goat shall bear on itself all their iniquities to a barren region; and the goat shall be set free in the wilderness.0 -
Paula Surridge
@p_surridge
·
30m
Worth restating again. MRP isn't magic, it depends on the quality of the underlying data. All the tools around give numbers in similar places given the headline polling numbers. The question is whether the headline figures have any weaknesses or change over the campaign.
https://x.com/p_surridge/status/17966392857826592851 -
That's partly because they didn't have a party agenda. Johnson had an agenda (or more accurately, Cummings had an agenda then Johnson had a different one), then Truss had a different agenda and Sunak a different agenda again.carnforth said:
The tories had a majority of 80 and didn't manage to prosecute their agenda.Casino_Royale said:
Do you want SKS being a virtual dictator for 5 years?Leon said:
That’s how I see it. Get rid. We need a confident populist right wing party that isn’t terrified of the guardian or what their Islington neighbours will think. It will arise in time, politics abhors a vacuum. The trouble is we must endure at least a term of labour but 1. They deserve a go and who knows they may do ok and 2. It is literally impossible to feel sad as this bunch of Tories departsSean_F said:Perhaps, like the 1920’s Liberals, a party just stops representing any significant element of the population. The Conservatives’ strategy of talking right, acting left, and lining their pockets seems to have reached the end of the road.
Centre right politics is probably pointless now, in the UK.
Only part of the reason why they're in so much trouble.0 -
Isn't it just that people aren't that unhappy with local Tories? It's the National government that they want rid of.Pro_Rata said:Not really believing this result for the moment.
Reading the discussion below, I think the MRPness of this poll is genuine enough, but something is amiss.
And I think it is that there local election rounds, if not by elections, aren't showing this level of collapse, as Norfolk notes. I'm struggling to think that they will do worse than in the preceding locals, unpopular incumbents tend to do better don't they? (May in 2017 happened from a very different circumstance).
Unless the public have given up on even "sending a message" to the Tories - there is nothing more they can do to put things right, no change to be made, so why kick my local councillor as well, why not just leave the deed to GE day?
I wonder, but I don't actually believe that.0 -
If the Conservatives vanish, you might not like what replaces them on the right. There is always being careful what you wish for.RochdalePioneers said:
What about it? We will have destroyed the Tories. Anything that follows will be better.Casino_Royale said:
And the day after that?RochdalePioneers said:
Oh I don't know. Revenge works - an awful lot of people want to demolish the Tory party for an entertainingly large number of reasons.Casino_Royale said:
Unlike 1997 this is an election motivated by revenge, not hope.Leon said:The worst signal for the Tories is that right wingers on here are looking at these apocalyptic polls and shrugging and saying “meh, whatevs, they deserve it”
Almost everyone has deserted them
And not healthy.
What we get instead will have its own problems - we can all list them. So its not about hope, its about retribution. People want E.L.E. because they don't want a government this egregiously awful again in their lifetimes. But that's the rational side. On the emotional side people want E.L.E. because they want to punish the Tory party.
Sorry, I know the remaining 6 Tory activists hate this. I joined a LibDem party reduced to a minibus full. It isn't fun. But sometimes it is justified. And oh bioy, is this justified.
The national rejoicing the day after E.L.E. will be something utterly wonderful.
I know you disagree. And I'm sorry. But them's the breaks.2 -
robert shrimsley
@robertshrimsley
·
20m
It looks fantastic for Starmer but Labour will not want polls like this. Anything that gives voters permission to vote green, Lib Dem, SNP whatever, will worry it.5 -
Anyhow, had a long day out in London so I’m turning in.
It’s a fun MRP but who knows?
One last comment is that one of two people have become stridently partisan this past week. That’s what is not ‘healthy’
I think most of us recognise that Starmer and Davey have their faults and that Labour or LibDems aren’t the bee's-knees.
But, yeah, they’re going to win and the tories are going to lose.
Night all. xx2 -
Bear in mind that FindOutNow is the most SNP friendly pollster during to their methodology. That, and they seem to be assuming there'll be anti-Tory tactical voting but no anti-SNP tactical voting in Scotland which seems a little implausible.Eabhal said:
The MRP is picking up some resilience for the SNP.ToryJim said:These are the figures with and without tactical voting
🚨📊 || MRP Poll from @ElectCalculus
/ @FindoutnowUK:
Without Tactical Voting
🌹 LAB: 493 (+297)
🌳 CON: 72 (-300)
🔶 LDM: 39 (+31)
🎗️ SNP: 22 (-26)
🌼 PLC: 4 (+2)
🌍 GRN: 2 (+1)
With Tactical Voting:
🌹 LAB: 476 (+280)
🌳 CON: 66 (-306)
🔶 LDM: 59 (+51)
🎗️ SNP: 26 (-22)
🌼 PLC: 3 (+1)
🌍 GRN: 2 (+1)
The tactical voting adjustment is fascinating - that's the Reform voters coming back in some places, but the Lib Dems winning the Blue Wall? I wonder how they modelled Scotland for the SNP to lose fewer seats.0 -
A majority of 80 is different to one of 300.carnforth said:
The tories had a majority of 80 and didn't manage to prosecute their agenda.Casino_Royale said:
Do you want SKS being a virtual dictator for 5 years?Leon said:
That’s how I see it. Get rid. We need a confident populist right wing party that isn’t terrified of the guardian or what their Islington neighbours will think. It will arise in time, politics abhors a vacuum. The trouble is we must endure at least a term of labour but 1. They deserve a go and who knows they may do ok and 2. It is literally impossible to feel sad as this bunch of Tories departsSean_F said:Perhaps, like the 1920’s Liberals, a party just stops representing any significant element of the population. The Conservatives’ strategy of talking right, acting left, and lining their pockets seems to have reached the end of the road.
Centre right politics is probably pointless now, in the UK.0 -
No party claims to support “mass” migration. It’s too politically toxic to do so. Rhetoric and reality are rather disconnected. It would be intriguing to see a party somewhere actually make that sort of positive case - essentially the immigration version of the YIMBY movement.Casino_Royale said:
They can say what they like.bondegezou said:
I believe Labour have said they want to reduce overall immigration, with a focus on skills training to fill gaps in the labour market, like with healthcare.pigeon said:
Mass migration shores up the tax base, house prices and rental incomes. Plus, most of the population doesn't pay attention to immigration for work or study purposes. It's therefore small wonder that the current Government uses boat people bashing to try to shore up its base, but makes only fitful attempts in other areas.Sean_F said:
I do wonder what they were thinking (do they think?)Leon said:
They let in 2m migrants in 3 years. An act of such astounding irresponsibility, so evilly reckless, so utterly unasked for, so obviously unmandated, I want the Tories destroyed forever. I want them pulped into nothing. I want them turned into political atoms and dispersed by the solar windsMonksfield said:
I wonder why? Maybe it’s because the Tories and their obsessions have simply not addressed the nation’s concerns. And after being huckstered by BoZo, the people have got an XXXL sized dose of buyers remorse.Leon said:The worst signal for the Tories is that right wingers on here are looking at these apocalyptic polls and shrugging and saying “meh, whatevs, they deserve it”
Almost everyone has deserted them
Labour will be fixated on the boat people whilst leaving everyone else alone for all the same reasons (with bells on, because so many on the left are for open borders.)
I'm not sure any governing party has what it takes to stop mass immigration, whilst also developing the economy.
It requires too much of a change to our economic model and the international treaty and legal system.
I don’t think it’ll happen anytime soon in Britain, or the EU, or the US. But somewhere it might and it will be interesting to see. Because in a world of declining demographics the country that can successfully attract vast numbers of young working age people and their money will be the future hegemon.
At the moment those countries are the USA, despite it claiming not to be, the UAE (with its own highly discriminatory de facto caste system) and Singapore (ditto).1 -
Aaron Bell standing down0
-
I thought backing down on Abbott made him look decent. There was a lot of sympathy for her from friend and foe alike and anyone believing that not reconsidering a bad decision is attractive in a leader is taking a very old fashioned viewTimS said:SKS is a lucky general, again. His party’s clusterfuck over Abbott threatened to send the whole campaign into chaos. Then Trump got convicted and Mr P came out with his first poll, and it’s all forgotten.
I’m inclined to promote him to lucky field marshal.
(But, to be clear, he’s not going to be that lucky in Didcot and Wantage or other sovereign yellow turf).2 -
Yes, I do disagree.RochdalePioneers said:
What about it? We will have destroyed the Tories. Anything that follows will be better.Casino_Royale said:
And the day after that?RochdalePioneers said:
Oh I don't know. Revenge works - an awful lot of people want to demolish the Tory party for an entertainingly large number of reasons.Casino_Royale said:
Unlike 1997 this is an election motivated by revenge, not hope.Leon said:The worst signal for the Tories is that right wingers on here are looking at these apocalyptic polls and shrugging and saying “meh, whatevs, they deserve it”
Almost everyone has deserted them
And not healthy.
What we get instead will have its own problems - we can all list them. So its not about hope, its about retribution. People want E.L.E. because they don't want a government this egregiously awful again in their lifetimes. But that's the rational side. On the emotional side people want E.L.E. because they want to punish the Tory party.
Sorry, I know the remaining 6 Tory activists hate this. I joined a LibDem party reduced to a minibus full. It isn't fun. But sometimes it is justified. And oh bioy, is this justified.
The national rejoicing the day after E.L.E. will be something utterly wonderful.
I know you disagree. And I'm sorry. But them's the breaks.
History is littered with people who fell for the anything else is better/can't be any worse, line.
It just highlights that you're not in control of your emotions, nor able to think consequentially about the future.0 -
Its a delicate balance. But when the mood is to demolish then its only a question of how much demolition you get...rottenborough said:
robert shrimsley
@robertshrimsley
·
20m
It looks fantastic for Starmer but Labour will not want polls like this. Anything that gives voters permission to vote green, Lib Dem, SNP whatever, will worry it.0 -
A global event got in the way = after which the consequences of that event played out.carnforth said:
The tories had a majority of 80 and didn't manage to prosecute their agenda.Casino_Royale said:
Do you want SKS being a virtual dictator for 5 years?Leon said:
That’s how I see it. Get rid. We need a confident populist right wing party that isn’t terrified of the guardian or what their Islington neighbours will think. It will arise in time, politics abhors a vacuum. The trouble is we must endure at least a term of labour but 1. They deserve a go and who knows they may do ok and 2. It is literally impossible to feel sad as this bunch of Tories departsSean_F said:Perhaps, like the 1920’s Liberals, a party just stops representing any significant element of the population. The Conservatives’ strategy of talking right, acting left, and lining their pockets seems to have reached the end of the road.
Centre right politics is probably pointless now, in the UK.
Then Truss was elected and decided to favour the people who elected her....
0 -
I'd probably rather SKS with a massive majority and able to do what he likes than SKS with a tiny majority and in hock to the likes of Diane Abbot who has unaccountaboy made it back inside the tent, or SKS with a minority and in hock to the SNP.carnforth said:
The tories had a majority of 80 and didn't manage to prosecute their agenda.Casino_Royale said:
Do you want SKS being a virtual dictator for 5 years?Leon said:
That’s how I see it. Get rid. We need a confident populist right wing party that isn’t terrified of the guardian or what their Islington neighbours will think. It will arise in time, politics abhors a vacuum. The trouble is we must endure at least a term of labour but 1. They deserve a go and who knows they may do ok and 2. It is literally impossible to feel sad as this bunch of Tories departsSean_F said:Perhaps, like the 1920’s Liberals, a party just stops representing any significant element of the population. The Conservatives’ strategy of talking right, acting left, and lining their pockets seems to have reached the end of the road.
Centre right politics is probably pointless now, in the UK.1 -
"But yeah you’re right. We’re seething with the tories and they’re about to get the mother of all kickings. You screwed with just about everything that makes for wellbeing in this nation. So now take your medicine."Casino_Royale said:
Two clues: "You screwed" and "So now take your medicine."Heathener said:
You can’t help yourself, can you?Casino_Royale said:
Ah, the child has turned up.Heathener said:
Clearly we can’t overestimate the importance of tactical votingSystem said:Incoming extinction level event for the Tories – politicalbetting.com?GENERAL ELECTION 2024: FIRST MRP POLL? We at @electcalculus and @findoutnow asked over 10k people for @DailyMailUK who they intended to vote for in the general election. Seats tally CON: 66 LAB: 476 LD: 59 Reform: 0 Green: 2 This accounts for tactical voting.
Well, in 1997 Tony was hailed as the Messiah so things could only go one way from there.Casino_Royale said:
Unlike 1997 this is an election motivated by revenge, not hope.Leon said:The worst signal for the Tories is that right wingers on here are looking at these apocalyptic polls and shrugging and saying “meh, whatevs, they deserve it”
Almost everyone has deserted them
And not healthy.
That’s why I think Labour will win at least 3 terms, because Starmer starts from much lower expectations. Things really can only get better this time.
And that’s very, very, healthy.
But yeah you’re right. We’re seething with the tories and they’re about to get the mother of all kickings. You screwed with just about everything that makes for wellbeing in this nation. So now take your medicine.
Isn't it past your bedtime?
The moment anyone says something you don’t like you go Ad Hominem.
Do you realise how much you damage the Conservative cause on here by being so personally nasty and abusive to people?
If you don’t now, then do please reflect on this during the long wilderness years.
The subject of the ‘you’ was the tories, clearly.
If you think that’s personally rude and don’t see the point that we and the country are telling you then you deserve the electoral beating that we’re about to deliver you.
But, yeah, watching Conservatives like you getting your comeuppance is justice. Take your medicine.
Night all0 -
By the way, have we had a thread header on the question of turnout? Someone mentioned the other day that the pollsters are assuming 72-78% which, given the lack of enthusiasm seems optimistic.1
-
The Truss factor is strong with anyone who has had to switch mortgage deals, Labour should be plastering the country with posters of her, just to really ram the message home.eek said:
A global event got in the way = after which the consequences of that event played out.carnforth said:
The tories had a majority of 80 and didn't manage to prosecute their agenda.Casino_Royale said:
Do you want SKS being a virtual dictator for 5 years?Leon said:
That’s how I see it. Get rid. We need a confident populist right wing party that isn’t terrified of the guardian or what their Islington neighbours will think. It will arise in time, politics abhors a vacuum. The trouble is we must endure at least a term of labour but 1. They deserve a go and who knows they may do ok and 2. It is literally impossible to feel sad as this bunch of Tories departsSean_F said:Perhaps, like the 1920’s Liberals, a party just stops representing any significant element of the population. The Conservatives’ strategy of talking right, acting left, and lining their pockets seems to have reached the end of the road.
Centre right politics is probably pointless now, in the UK.
Then Truss was elected and decided to favour the people who elected her....0 -
The least Aaron can do for us before he steps downSeaShantyIrish2 said:
Will someone explain to the youth (before OR after their dragooned, like the Red Chinese "Volunteers" of 1950) that "goat" in this and other Bible excerpts, does NOT mean "greatest of all time"?TimS said:
We’ve been through a difficult few years as a country. Certainly the last 8 years but arguably the last 17, since the run on Northern Rock.RochdalePioneers said:
Oh I don't know. Revenge works - an awful lot of people want to demolish the Tory party for an entertainingly large number of reasons.Casino_Royale said:
Unlike 1997 this is an election motivated by revenge, not hope.Leon said:The worst signal for the Tories is that right wingers on here are looking at these apocalyptic polls and shrugging and saying “meh, whatevs, they deserve it”
Almost everyone has deserted them
And not healthy.
What we get instead will have its own problems - we can all list them. So its not about hope, its about retribution. People want E.L.E. because they don't want a government this egregiously awful again in their lifetimes. But that's the rational side. On the emotional side people want E.L.E. because they want to punish the Tory party.
Sorry, I know the remaining 6 Tory activists hate this. I joined a LibDem party reduced to a minibus full. It isn't fun. But sometimes it is justified. And oh bioy, is this justified.
The national rejoicing the day after E.L.E. will be something utterly wonderful.
It’s not fair to blame the Tories for everything, but Leviticus 16, 21-22 says it all:
Then Aaron shall lay both his hands on the head of the live goat, and confess over it all the iniquities of the people of Israel, and all their transgressions, all their sins, putting them on the head of the goat, and sending it away into the wilderness by means of someone designated for the task. The goat shall bear on itself all their iniquities to a barren region; and the goat shall be set free in the wilderness.
Of course, actual caprines may disagree with that statement . . . "baah!"1 -
Pro-immigrationism is a failed ideology. Canada’s GDP per capita is now declining as a result of the number of people they’ve let in.TimS said:
No party claims to support “mass” migration. It’s too politically toxic to do so. Rhetoric and reality are rather disconnected. It would be intriguing to see a party somewhere actually make that sort of positive case - essentially the immigration version of the YIMBY movement.Casino_Royale said:
They can say what they like.bondegezou said:
I believe Labour have said they want to reduce overall immigration, with a focus on skills training to fill gaps in the labour market, like with healthcare.pigeon said:
Mass migration shores up the tax base, house prices and rental incomes. Plus, most of the population doesn't pay attention to immigration for work or study purposes. It's therefore small wonder that the current Government uses boat people bashing to try to shore up its base, but makes only fitful attempts in other areas.Sean_F said:
I do wonder what they were thinking (do they think?)Leon said:
They let in 2m migrants in 3 years. An act of such astounding irresponsibility, so evilly reckless, so utterly unasked for, so obviously unmandated, I want the Tories destroyed forever. I want them pulped into nothing. I want them turned into political atoms and dispersed by the solar windsMonksfield said:
I wonder why? Maybe it’s because the Tories and their obsessions have simply not addressed the nation’s concerns. And after being huckstered by BoZo, the people have got an XXXL sized dose of buyers remorse.Leon said:The worst signal for the Tories is that right wingers on here are looking at these apocalyptic polls and shrugging and saying “meh, whatevs, they deserve it”
Almost everyone has deserted them
Labour will be fixated on the boat people whilst leaving everyone else alone for all the same reasons (with bells on, because so many on the left are for open borders.)
I'm not sure any governing party has what it takes to stop mass immigration, whilst also developing the economy.
It requires too much of a change to our economic model and the international treaty and legal system.
I don’t think it’ll happen anytime soon in Britain, or the EU, or the US. But somewhere it might and it will be interesting to see. Because in a world of declining demographics the country that can successfully attract vast numbers of young working age people and their money will be the future hegemon.
At the moment those countries are the USA, despite it claiming not to be, the UAE (with its own highly discriminatory de facto caste system) and Singapore (ditto).0 -
How about SKS with a tiny majority and in hock to a greatly swelled Lib Dem parliamentary party enabling him to ignore the loony left?Cookie said:
I'd probably rather SKS with a massive majority and able to do what he likes than SKS with a tiny majority and in hock to the likes of Diane Abbot who has unaccountaboy made it back inside the tent, or SKS with a minority and in hock to the SNP.carnforth said:
The tories had a majority of 80 and didn't manage to prosecute their agenda.Casino_Royale said:
Do you want SKS being a virtual dictator for 5 years?Leon said:
That’s how I see it. Get rid. We need a confident populist right wing party that isn’t terrified of the guardian or what their Islington neighbours will think. It will arise in time, politics abhors a vacuum. The trouble is we must endure at least a term of labour but 1. They deserve a go and who knows they may do ok and 2. It is literally impossible to feel sad as this bunch of Tories departsSean_F said:Perhaps, like the 1920’s Liberals, a party just stops representing any significant element of the population. The Conservatives’ strategy of talking right, acting left, and lining their pockets seems to have reached the end of the road.
Centre right politics is probably pointless now, in the UK.
1 -
I may be misunderstanding how these things work - but there is a massive military presence there*. Presumably that is less classically Tory than the North Yorkshire market town image?kyf_100 said:
Labour are 4/1 on Oddschecker. I think that's probably about right for a rural constituency that usually weighs the Con vote but also where Sunak is locally unpopular.eek said:
Richmond is basically Richmond (small market town), a large amount of the Dales, Nothallerton (has Betty's but no Booths) and Catterick..pigeon said:
Richmond is all farmers and old people. If the Conservative Party can't even hold on there, they are finished.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:I'll be amazed if Sunak holds on in Richmond.
EDIT: to clarify, Sunak is not going to lose his seat. How many troops he has left at the end of all this, well, that's a different matter, of course.
With Catterick it could easily go Red - there is a LOT of new buildings there...
It'd be fun if it happened, but I'm not betting at those odds. It would require serious GOTV and tactical voting to make it happen.
*Interesting stat - for this reason, Richmondshire is has by far the greatest male:female ratio of any local authority in the UK. Or was last time I looked...0 -
One can dreamTimS said:
How about SKS with a tiny majority and in hock to a greatly swelled Lib Dem parliamentary party enabling him to ignore the loony left?Cookie said:
I'd probably rather SKS with a massive majority and able to do what he likes than SKS with a tiny majority and in hock to the likes of Diane Abbot who has unaccountaboy made it back inside the tent, or SKS with a minority and in hock to the SNP.carnforth said:
The tories had a majority of 80 and didn't manage to prosecute their agenda.Casino_Royale said:
Do you want SKS being a virtual dictator for 5 years?Leon said:
That’s how I see it. Get rid. We need a confident populist right wing party that isn’t terrified of the guardian or what their Islington neighbours will think. It will arise in time, politics abhors a vacuum. The trouble is we must endure at least a term of labour but 1. They deserve a go and who knows they may do ok and 2. It is literally impossible to feel sad as this bunch of Tories departsSean_F said:Perhaps, like the 1920’s Liberals, a party just stops representing any significant element of the population. The Conservatives’ strategy of talking right, acting left, and lining their pockets seems to have reached the end of the road.
Centre right politics is probably pointless now, in the UK. 0 -
What does it mean to apply tactical voting, five weeks out, in a seat-by-seat MRP? Does it mean that people will change their mind predictably based on top 2 in their old constituency in 2019, in a way that they haven't done yet, but will by polling day?
I'm looking at the Richmond numbers where the LDs went from 12% (old seat GE 2019) to 3% (new seat MRP). The transition matrix says the LDs are modelled to lose 50% of votes between today and 4 July. That means around 6% of people are saying LD today. But that already seems like a big "tactical" vote - unless their overall vote share has really tanked to something like 6% before tactical voting.0 -
If Labour win north of 450 seats, it’s quite possible some of the more left-leaning MPs become an informal opposition.Cookie said:
I'd probably rather SKS with a massive majority and able to do what he likes than SKS with a tiny majority and in hock to the likes of Diane Abbot who has unaccountaboy made it back inside the tent,carnforth said:
The tories had a majority of 80 and didn't manage to prosecute their agenda.Casino_Royale said:
Do you want SKS being a virtual dictator for 5 years?Leon said:
That’s how I see it. Get rid. We need a confident populist right wing party that isn’t terrified of the guardian or what their Islington neighbours will think. It will arise in time, politics abhors a vacuum. The trouble is we must endure at least a term of labour but 1. They deserve a go and who knows they may do ok and 2. It is literally impossible to feel sad as this bunch of Tories departsSean_F said:Perhaps, like the 1920’s Liberals, a party just stops representing any significant element of the population. The Conservatives’ strategy of talking right, acting left, and lining their pockets seems to have reached the end of the road.
Centre right politics is probably pointless now, in the UK.
or SKS with a minority and in hock to the SNP.1 -
What a shame - if you govern with such utter contempt like the conservatives have done over the last 14 years, then they deserve everything they get
I have to keep telling my mother the party isn’t it the same as it was when she was voting in the 70s and 80s - it it totally out of touch with modern Britain (and the modern workforce)0 -
I've been flagging the potential for the rise of the hard right for ages. But I disagree with the diagnosis. What we have now with the Conservative Party isn't remotely conservative. Which leaves all this room for the hard right.Sean_F said:
If the Conservatives vanish, you might not like what replaces them on the right. There is always being careful what you wish for.RochdalePioneers said:
What about it? We will have destroyed the Tories. Anything that follows will be better.Casino_Royale said:
And the day after that?RochdalePioneers said:
Oh I don't know. Revenge works - an awful lot of people want to demolish the Tory party for an entertainingly large number of reasons.Casino_Royale said:
Unlike 1997 this is an election motivated by revenge, not hope.Leon said:The worst signal for the Tories is that right wingers on here are looking at these apocalyptic polls and shrugging and saying “meh, whatevs, they deserve it”
Almost everyone has deserted them
And not healthy.
What we get instead will have its own problems - we can all list them. So its not about hope, its about retribution. People want E.L.E. because they don't want a government this egregiously awful again in their lifetimes. But that's the rational side. On the emotional side people want E.L.E. because they want to punish the Tory party.
Sorry, I know the remaining 6 Tory activists hate this. I joined a LibDem party reduced to a minibus full. It isn't fun. But sometimes it is justified. And oh bioy, is this justified.
The national rejoicing the day after E.L.E. will be something utterly wonderful.
I know you disagree. And I'm sorry. But them's the breaks.
Smash today's Tories and we may get a Conservative Party in its place. Which will see off the hard right.0 -
https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-e&q=vw+commercial+changes#fpstate=ive&vld=cid:9057823b,vid:IyYV6HkmYPs,st:0Roger said:
I thought backing down on Abbott made him look decent. There was a lot of sympathy for her from friend and foe alike and anyone believing that not reconsidering a bad decision is attractive in a leader is taking a very old fashioned viewTimS said:SKS is a lucky general, again. His party’s clusterfuck over Abbott threatened to send the whole campaign into chaos. Then Trump got convicted and Mr P came out with his first poll, and it’s all forgotten.
I’m inclined to promote him to lucky field marshal.
(But, to be clear, he’s not going to be that lucky in Didcot and Wantage or other sovereign yellow turf).0 -
Looking at the MRP I think the big question is whether the Tories have any survival instinct left - or any levers to pull. If they do then you'd expect something far more respectable.
In 2019 Labour looked not quite as screwed but had internal polling showing the low hundreds was a real possibility. But had the 2nd referendum to see off the Lib Dems, while as lots of refuseniks mainly objected to Corbyn as PM, so when it looked vanishingly unlikely could rally round.
The Tories don't appear to have a similar option if the golden oldie stuff is repelling as many voters as it persuades back from reform.
Their best hope maybe Labour flubbing things and making some voters rally round out of pity. Could equally end up with a circular firing squad or many Tories giving up. A lot riding on the debate for Sunak to show some fight. Less so for Starmer.0 -
-
We'll have to see if there are any significant movements in the polls over the next couple of weeks, but yes, it does look very much like, if not quite a wipeout, then a very heavy defeat. A year or two out, when the Tories were obviously already doing extremely badly, I thought that lack of enthusiasm for Labour, resulting in a low turnout that would exaggerate age-related turnout differentials, and a reversion of the grey vote to the Tories, would prevent a shellacking. Looks increasingly as if I was wrong. It appears that there is indeed a lack of enthusiasm for Labour, but there's also such widespread revulsion for the Conservatives that a critical mass of voters in all demographic groups is going to switch sides just to get rid of them.Cleitophon said:Short of the tories declaring to rejoin the EU, the railway tracks are heading right over the cliff edge and into a hard landing. It will be total wipeout. People just want them out, no matter the cost.
As others have pointed out, the fact that the local elections weren't even more disastrous for the Tories than they could've been suggests that the kind of sub-100 seat implosion suggested by the MRP is wide of the mark, but a 1997-scale defeat looks very plausible.0 -
In tomorrow's Guardian:
Owen Jones 'Electoral Calculus predicting a landslide is a disaster for Starmer'0 -
I'm still thinking between 100-130 for the Tories. The longer without some recovery the more and more likely it seems that not only with the vote be low, but the opponents' votes efficient.0
-
IIRC Catterick is in Sunak's constituency. Do they all vote there? Are they all registered? It's not something I'm honestly familiar with.Cookie said:
I may be misunderstanding how these things work - but there is a massive military presence there*. Presumably that is less classically Tory than the North Yorkshire market town image?kyf_100 said:
Labour are 4/1 on Oddschecker. I think that's probably about right for a rural constituency that usually weighs the Con vote but also where Sunak is locally unpopular.eek said:
Richmond is basically Richmond (small market town), a large amount of the Dales, Nothallerton (has Betty's but no Booths) and Catterick..pigeon said:
Richmond is all farmers and old people. If the Conservative Party can't even hold on there, they are finished.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:I'll be amazed if Sunak holds on in Richmond.
EDIT: to clarify, Sunak is not going to lose his seat. How many troops he has left at the end of all this, well, that's a different matter, of course.
With Catterick it could easily go Red - there is a LOT of new buildings there...
It'd be fun if it happened, but I'm not betting at those odds. It would require serious GOTV and tactical voting to make it happen.
*Interesting stat - for this reason, Richmondshire is has by far the greatest male:female ratio of any local authority in the UK. Or was last time I looked...
But if we go with the trope that national service is unpopular with actual professional soldiers, as per yes minister, it may work against the PM.0 -
Nah, he's been saying consistently starmer will get a landslide, and that's why it's safe to vote for other left wing parties.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:In tomorrow's Guardian:
Owen Jones 'Electoral Calculus predicting a landslide is a disaster for Starmer'0 -
"People will regret giving Labour a huge majority/be disappointed by Keir Starmer very soon" will be one refrain in response.Cleitophon said:Short of the tories declaring to rejoin the EU, the railway tracks are heading right over the cliff edge and into a hard landing. It will be total wipeout. People just want them out, no matter the cost.
And it may well be true, but the voting public are not unused to regretting their choices and overcorrecting sometimes.0 -
Friend's husband is stationed at Catterick, on paper they're a classic Tory family, not this time though. Young family, big mortgage, pro EU - furious at the Tories.kyf_100 said:
IIRC Catterick is in Sunak's constituency. Do they all vote there? Are they all registered? It's not something I'm honestly familiar with.Cookie said:
I may be misunderstanding how these things work - but there is a massive military presence there*. Presumably that is less classically Tory than the North Yorkshire market town image?kyf_100 said:
Labour are 4/1 on Oddschecker. I think that's probably about right for a rural constituency that usually weighs the Con vote but also where Sunak is locally unpopular.eek said:
Richmond is basically Richmond (small market town), a large amount of the Dales, Nothallerton (has Betty's but no Booths) and Catterick..pigeon said:
Richmond is all farmers and old people. If the Conservative Party can't even hold on there, they are finished.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:I'll be amazed if Sunak holds on in Richmond.
EDIT: to clarify, Sunak is not going to lose his seat. How many troops he has left at the end of all this, well, that's a different matter, of course.
With Catterick it could easily go Red - there is a LOT of new buildings there...
It'd be fun if it happened, but I'm not betting at those odds. It would require serious GOTV and tactical voting to make it happen.
*Interesting stat - for this reason, Richmondshire is has by far the greatest male:female ratio of any local authority in the UK. Or was last time I looked...
But if we go with the trope that national service is unpopular with actual professional soldiers, as per yes minister, it may work against the PM.0 -
The constraints on prosecuting an agenda will have not much to do with the size of majority. It will be in the realm of what is possible WRT public finances and the problem of the consequences of actually doing stuff; added to the problem of the contradictory promises made to get elected.Casino_Royale said:
A majority of 80 is different to one of 300.carnforth said:
The tories had a majority of 80 and didn't manage to prosecute their agenda.Casino_Royale said:
Do you want SKS being a virtual dictator for 5 years?Leon said:
That’s how I see it. Get rid. We need a confident populist right wing party that isn’t terrified of the guardian or what their Islington neighbours will think. It will arise in time, politics abhors a vacuum. The trouble is we must endure at least a term of labour but 1. They deserve a go and who knows they may do ok and 2. It is literally impossible to feel sad as this bunch of Tories departsSean_F said:Perhaps, like the 1920’s Liberals, a party just stops representing any significant element of the population. The Conservatives’ strategy of talking right, acting left, and lining their pockets seems to have reached the end of the road.
Centre right politics is probably pointless now, in the UK.
Also the difficulty of the diffuse range of agendas projected onto the Labour administration.1 -
With Starmer floundering, Farage flailing and Ed Davey acting a fool, could a Tory revival now be on the cards.Theuniondivvie said:I’d be fckng whispering it as well, luv.
https://x.com/camillatominey/status/1796565238004736015?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
The word "could" is one of the most useful and versatile in the English language.1 -
The Tories have two problems - amoral heartless bastards, and riven with mentalist policies which make people poorer and unhappy. And the levers they have chosen to pull make them look even more heartless and mental...MJW said:Looking at the MRP I think the big question is whether the Tories have any survival instinct left - or any levers to pull. If they do then you'd expect something far more respectable.
In 2019 Labour looked not quite as screwed but had internal polling showing the low hundreds was a real possibility. But had the 2nd referendum to see off the Lib Dems, while as lots of refuseniks mainly objected to Corbyn as PM, so when it looked vanishingly unlikely could rally round.
The Tories don't appear to have a similar option if the golden oldie stuff is repelling as many voters as it persuades back from reform.
Their best hope maybe Labour flubbing things and making some voters rally round out of pity. Could equally end up with a circular firing squad or many Tories giving up. A lot riding on the debate for Sunak to show some fight. Less so for Starmer.0 -
Pollsters almost always over estimate turnout. Few who answer polls say they won't vote.carnforth said:By the way, have we had a thread header on the question of turnout? Someone mentioned the other day that the pollsters are assuming 72-78% which, given the lack of enthusiasm seems optimistic.
Also pollsters don't tend to poll or adjust for those registered in several places (like students) or too unwell to vote.0 -
I wonder if the main effect of this MRP (which I don’t believe, much though I might like to) will be to embolden the circular firing squad that is the Conservative parliamentary caucus. When there’s a projection saying you’re going to lose your supposedly “safe seat” by a landslide, and a journalist phones you up for an off the record chat, you’re not going to hold back.0
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I see the tactical game of not standing has started in Northern Ireland. The DUP have stood aside for the UUP in Fermanagh & S Tyrone, while they're also not standing against their former member Alex Easton in North Down, who is standing this time as an independent. The TUV are also backing Easton.2
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Embarrassing stuff. I think Rishi is personally unpopular enough and at the crux of a major party change moment that he is genuinely at risk of the same.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
I'd still put him as more likely to retain his seat than not, but it's not an inconsequential risk all the same.0 -
Ah, so this is a polling result, not a polling company judgement? I misunderstood.Foxy said:
Pollsters almost always over estimate turnout. Few who answer polls say they won't vote.carnforth said:By the way, have we had a thread header on the question of turnout? Someone mentioned the other day that the pollsters are assuming 72-78% which, given the lack of enthusiasm seems optimistic.
Also pollsters don't tend to poll or adjust for those registered in several places (like students) oe too unwell to vote.0 -
People keep talking about a 'lack of enthusiasm' for Labour, as it sails towards a huge majority with somewhere between 400 and 500 seats - quite possibly nearer the latter than the former.
I dread to think how many seats Labour would win if the voters were enthusiastic for them.4 -
He was campaigning In Cheshire earlier today, but maybe he will be home for the weekend.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Is Crackpot in this constituency?eek said:
Richmond is basically Richmond (small market town), a large amount of the Dales, Nothallerton (has Betty's but no Booths) and Catterick..pigeon said:
Richmond is all farmers and old people. If the Conservative Party can't even hold on there, they are finished.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:I'll be amazed if Sunak holds on in Richmond.
EDIT: to clarify, Sunak is not going to lose his seat. How many troops he has left at the end of all this, well, that's a different matter, of course.
With Catterick it could easily go Red - there is a LOT of new buildings there...
0 -
Yea, interesting question. I remember Stodge saying the other day he expectes it to be very high. Stodge is a clever chap and I'm sure he has his reasons but my uninformed guess is that it will be through the floor.Foxy said:
Pollsters almost always over estimate turnout. Few who answer polls say they won't vote.carnforth said:By the way, have we had a thread header on the question of turnout? Someone mentioned the other day that the pollsters are assuming 72-78% which, given the lack of enthusiasm seems optimistic.
Also pollsters don't tend to poll or adjust for those registered in several places (like students) oe too unwell to vote.0 -
I assume the family's home isn't in Catterick - I wouldn't have thought any mortgage there was massive, house prices match Darlington / County Durham rather than North Yorkshire prices...AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Friend's husband is stationed at Catterick, on paper they're a classic Tory family, not this time though. Young family, big mortgage, pro EU - furious at the Tories.kyf_100 said:
IIRC Catterick is in Sunak's constituency. Do they all vote there? Are they all registered? It's not something I'm honestly familiar with.Cookie said:
I may be misunderstanding how these things work - but there is a massive military presence there*. Presumably that is less classically Tory than the North Yorkshire market town image?kyf_100 said:
Labour are 4/1 on Oddschecker. I think that's probably about right for a rural constituency that usually weighs the Con vote but also where Sunak is locally unpopular.eek said:
Richmond is basically Richmond (small market town), a large amount of the Dales, Nothallerton (has Betty's but no Booths) and Catterick..pigeon said:
Richmond is all farmers and old people. If the Conservative Party can't even hold on there, they are finished.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:I'll be amazed if Sunak holds on in Richmond.
EDIT: to clarify, Sunak is not going to lose his seat. How many troops he has left at the end of all this, well, that's a different matter, of course.
With Catterick it could easily go Red - there is a LOT of new buildings there...
It'd be fun if it happened, but I'm not betting at those odds. It would require serious GOTV and tactical voting to make it happen.
*Interesting stat - for this reason, Richmondshire is has by far the greatest male:female ratio of any local authority in the UK. Or was last time I looked...
But if we go with the trope that national service is unpopular with actual professional soldiers, as per yes minister, it may work against the PM.0 -
And there's nothing more likely to turn polls like this into reality.El_Capitano said:I wonder if the main effect of this MRP (which I don’t believe, much though I might like to) will be to embolden the circular firing squad that is the Conservative parliamentary caucus. When there’s a projection saying you’re going to lose your supposedly “safe seat” by a landslide, and a journalist phones you up for an off the record chat, you’re not going to hold back.
1 -
Journalists favourite word.kle4 said:
With Starmer floundering, Farage flailing and Ed Davey acting a fool, could a Tory revival now be on the cards.Theuniondivvie said:I’d be fckng whispering it as well, luv.
https://x.com/camillatominey/status/1796565238004736015?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
The word "could" is one of the most useful and versatile in the English language.0 -
The new right-wing coalition in the Netherlands will be trying out strongly anti-immigrant policies, so we can see what the reverse effect does.TimS said:
No party claims to support “mass” migration. It’s too politically toxic to do so. Rhetoric and reality are rather disconnected. It would be intriguing to see a party somewhere actually make that sort of positive case - essentially the immigration version of the YIMBY movement.Casino_Royale said:
They can say what they like.bondegezou said:
I believe Labour have said they want to reduce overall immigration, with a focus on skills training to fill gaps in the labour market, like with healthcare.pigeon said:
Mass migration shores up the tax base, house prices and rental incomes. Plus, most of the population doesn't pay attention to immigration for work or study purposes. It's therefore small wonder that the current Government uses boat people bashing to try to shore up its base, but makes only fitful attempts in other areas.Sean_F said:
I do wonder what they were thinking (do they think?)Leon said:
They let in 2m migrants in 3 years. An act of such astounding irresponsibility, so evilly reckless, so utterly unasked for, so obviously unmandated, I want the Tories destroyed forever. I want them pulped into nothing. I want them turned into political atoms and dispersed by the solar windsMonksfield said:
I wonder why? Maybe it’s because the Tories and their obsessions have simply not addressed the nation’s concerns. And after being huckstered by BoZo, the people have got an XXXL sized dose of buyers remorse.Leon said:The worst signal for the Tories is that right wingers on here are looking at these apocalyptic polls and shrugging and saying “meh, whatevs, they deserve it”
Almost everyone has deserted them
Labour will be fixated on the boat people whilst leaving everyone else alone for all the same reasons (with bells on, because so many on the left are for open borders.)
I'm not sure any governing party has what it takes to stop mass immigration, whilst also developing the economy.
It requires too much of a change to our economic model and the international treaty and legal system.
I don’t think it’ll happen anytime soon in Britain, or the EU, or the US. But somewhere it might and it will be interesting to see. Because in a world of declining demographics the country that can successfully attract vast numbers of young working age people and their money will be the future hegemon.
At the moment those countries are the USA, despite it claiming not to be, the UAE (with its own highly discriminatory de facto caste system) and Singapore (ditto).
As for the US... I understand someone called Donald Trump is the current favourite. I don't know much about his policies, but I understand his mother and two of his three wives were all immigrants, so I presume he's pro-immigration?1 -
That is presumably a cause-effect mechanism proven by peer reviewed research, rather than a lazy non-sequitur?williamglenn said:
Pro-immigrationism is a failed ideology. Canada’s GDP per capita is now declining as a result of the number of people they’ve let in.TimS said:
No party claims to support “mass” migration. It’s too politically toxic to do so. Rhetoric and reality are rather disconnected. It would be intriguing to see a party somewhere actually make that sort of positive case - essentially the immigration version of the YIMBY movement.Casino_Royale said:
They can say what they like.bondegezou said:
I believe Labour have said they want to reduce overall immigration, with a focus on skills training to fill gaps in the labour market, like with healthcare.pigeon said:
Mass migration shores up the tax base, house prices and rental incomes. Plus, most of the population doesn't pay attention to immigration for work or study purposes. It's therefore small wonder that the current Government uses boat people bashing to try to shore up its base, but makes only fitful attempts in other areas.Sean_F said:
I do wonder what they were thinking (do they think?)Leon said:
They let in 2m migrants in 3 years. An act of such astounding irresponsibility, so evilly reckless, so utterly unasked for, so obviously unmandated, I want the Tories destroyed forever. I want them pulped into nothing. I want them turned into political atoms and dispersed by the solar windsMonksfield said:
I wonder why? Maybe it’s because the Tories and their obsessions have simply not addressed the nation’s concerns. And after being huckstered by BoZo, the people have got an XXXL sized dose of buyers remorse.Leon said:The worst signal for the Tories is that right wingers on here are looking at these apocalyptic polls and shrugging and saying “meh, whatevs, they deserve it”
Almost everyone has deserted them
Labour will be fixated on the boat people whilst leaving everyone else alone for all the same reasons (with bells on, because so many on the left are for open borders.)
I'm not sure any governing party has what it takes to stop mass immigration, whilst also developing the economy.
It requires too much of a change to our economic model and the international treaty and legal system.
I don’t think it’ll happen anytime soon in Britain, or the EU, or the US. But somewhere it might and it will be interesting to see. Because in a world of declining demographics the country that can successfully attract vast numbers of young working age people and their money will be the future hegemon.
At the moment those countries are the USA, despite it claiming not to be, the UAE (with its own highly discriminatory de facto caste system) and Singapore (ditto).
It worked reasonably well for the USA between 1776 and, well, now. Seemed to do OK for ancient Rome, and I already mentioned the Gulf States and Singapore. Argentina and Brazil had a pretty good run in the 19th century. Israel is what it is due to mass Jewish immigration since the formation of the state. Taiwan was a backwater, then the Kuomintang arrived in numbers and it’s now a global manufacturing superpower. Ireland’s forced experiment with the opposite back then wasn’t entirely a cracking success. Nor was West Africa’s mass depopulation by slavery over multiple centuries.
Anyway you don’t need to worry, because I’m
pretty sure this island won’t be where a pro-immigration policy platform comes into play. No, it’ll be somewhere with no dominant native culture and therefore open to anyone, or conversely somewhere with a return-home attraction for a particular group, in the Israel mould.
1 -
Low to mid 60's IMO.Cookie said:
Yea, interesting question. I remember Stodge saying the other day he expectes it to be very high. Stodge is a clever chap and I'm sure he has his reasons but my uninformed guess is that it will be through the floor.Foxy said:
Pollsters almost always over estimate turnout. Few who answer polls say they won't vote.carnforth said:By the way, have we had a thread header on the question of turnout? Someone mentioned the other day that the pollsters are assuming 72-78% which, given the lack of enthusiasm seems optimistic.
Also pollsters don't tend to poll or adjust for those registered in several places (like students) oe too unwell to vote.
The ID criteria stopped 2% of voters at the polling stations, possibly more who didn't get that far.0 -
Big moment for Fermanagh and South Tyrone really. The last three elections have had the same top two candidates, with majorities of 530 (for the UUP), 875 (for SF), and 57 (for SF), and neither is standing this time.bondegezou said:I see the tactical game of not standing has started in Northern Ireland. The DUP have stood aside for the UUP in Fermanagh & S Tyrone, while they're also not standing against their former member Alex Easton in North Down, who is standing this time as an independent. The TUV are also backing Easton.
Even that is not as close as 2010 when it was famously won by 4 votes.
I'm assuming SF will win unless the new candidate is truly terrible and the UUP one really amazing or something.1 -
Yes. But only about five people who can vote.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Is Crackpot in this constituency?eek said:
Richmond is basically Richmond (small market town), a large amount of the Dales, Nothallerton (has Betty's but no Booths) and Catterick..pigeon said:
Richmond is all farmers and old people. If the Conservative Party can't even hold on there, they are finished.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:I'll be amazed if Sunak holds on in Richmond.
EDIT: to clarify, Sunak is not going to lose his seat. How many troops he has left at the end of all this, well, that's a different matter, of course.
With Catterick it could easily go Red - there is a LOT of new buildings there...
Perhaps it should become the Dixville Notch of Yorkshire?2 -
I mean yes. Their basic problem is that 14 years of failure has left them governing an unhappy country they no longer understand because are largely insulated from the different things that piss people off.RochdalePioneers said:
The Tories have two problems - amoral heartless bastards, and riven with mentalist policies which make people poorer and unhappy. And the levers they have chosen to pull make them look even more heartless and mental...MJW said:Looking at the MRP I think the big question is whether the Tories have any survival instinct left - or any levers to pull. If they do then you'd expect something far more respectable.
In 2019 Labour looked not quite as screwed but had internal polling showing the low hundreds was a real possibility. But had the 2nd referendum to see off the Lib Dems, while as lots of refuseniks mainly objected to Corbyn as PM, so when it looked vanishingly unlikely could rally round.
The Tories don't appear to have a similar option if the golden oldie stuff is repelling as many voters as it persuades back from reform.
Their best hope maybe Labour flubbing things and making some voters rally round out of pity. Could equally end up with a circular firing squad or many Tories giving up. A lot riding on the debate for Sunak to show some fight. Less so for Starmer.1 -
No, its in a delightful leafy village with an excellent primary school, naturally.eek said:
I assume the family's home isn't in Catterick - I wouldn't have thought any mortgage there was massive, house prices match Darlington / County Durham rather than North Yorkshire prices...AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Friend's husband is stationed at Catterick, on paper they're a classic Tory family, not this time though. Young family, big mortgage, pro EU - furious at the Tories.kyf_100 said:
IIRC Catterick is in Sunak's constituency. Do they all vote there? Are they all registered? It's not something I'm honestly familiar with.Cookie said:
I may be misunderstanding how these things work - but there is a massive military presence there*. Presumably that is less classically Tory than the North Yorkshire market town image?kyf_100 said:
Labour are 4/1 on Oddschecker. I think that's probably about right for a rural constituency that usually weighs the Con vote but also where Sunak is locally unpopular.eek said:
Richmond is basically Richmond (small market town), a large amount of the Dales, Nothallerton (has Betty's but no Booths) and Catterick..pigeon said:
Richmond is all farmers and old people. If the Conservative Party can't even hold on there, they are finished.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:I'll be amazed if Sunak holds on in Richmond.
EDIT: to clarify, Sunak is not going to lose his seat. How many troops he has left at the end of all this, well, that's a different matter, of course.
With Catterick it could easily go Red - there is a LOT of new buildings there...
It'd be fun if it happened, but I'm not betting at those odds. It would require serious GOTV and tactical voting to make it happen.
*Interesting stat - for this reason, Richmondshire is has by far the greatest male:female ratio of any local authority in the UK. Or was last time I looked...
But if we go with the trope that national service is unpopular with actual professional soldiers, as per yes minister, it may work against the PM.0 -
Not quite - the nearest was Balfour who lost his seat in 1906, but his government collapsed due to internal infighting so he didn't wait for the inevitable electoral drubbing before handing over to the Liberals, who took office first and then called an election.Big_Ian said:
Has a PM ever lost his seat at a GE?EPG said:I am however highly confident that Sunak will no longer have his seat in a few months' time.
1 -
Note to Tory campaign managers;
If you are going to run a presidential campaign, you need a candidate whole looks presidential, not an Inbetweener.
You're welcome...1 -
I don't buy it. Sure, they may disappoint from such a massively high prediction, but if they truly are even within spitting distance of such levels of support (or Tories at such low support), I have doubts that the narrative would be sufficiently effected to put a big win in doubt by the more casual supporters seeing it as permission to vote the way they'd prefer.rottenborough said:
robert shrimsley
@robertshrimsley
·
20m
It looks fantastic for Starmer but Labour will not want polls like this. Anything that gives voters permission to vote green, Lib Dem, SNP whatever, will worry it.
The potential downsides versus the general sense of expectation of a big win, further depressing many Tory candidates and voters, would not seem as big to me.0 -
Sorry Tim - I don't like or trust Starmer but I'd still prefer what he's pertaining to offer than bringing the Lib Dems into it (which as far as I can see it would be the same thing but with added Bollocks to Brexit and trans women are women - though that may be the hangover from the previous campaign).TimS said:
How about SKS with a tiny majority and in hock to a greatly swelled Lib Dem parliamentary party enabling him to ignore the loony left?Cookie said:
I'd probably rather SKS with a massive majority and able to do what he likes than SKS with a tiny majority and in hock to the likes of Diane Abbot who has unaccountaboy made it back inside the tent, or SKS with a minority and in hock to the SNP.carnforth said:
The tories had a majority of 80 and didn't manage to prosecute their agenda.Casino_Royale said:
Do you want SKS being a virtual dictator for 5 years?Leon said:
That’s how I see it. Get rid. We need a confident populist right wing party that isn’t terrified of the guardian or what their Islington neighbours will think. It will arise in time, politics abhors a vacuum. The trouble is we must endure at least a term of labour but 1. They deserve a go and who knows they may do ok and 2. It is literally impossible to feel sad as this bunch of Tories departsSean_F said:Perhaps, like the 1920’s Liberals, a party just stops representing any significant element of the population. The Conservatives’ strategy of talking right, acting left, and lining their pockets seems to have reached the end of the road.
Centre right politics is probably pointless now, in the UK.0 -
Just got phone polled by Gallup. Obviously calling from the Philippines. I said I would kill Sunak if I thought I could get away with it so I am probably on some sort of fucking list now.0
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I think there certainly is an inevitability about chickens coming home to roost for them. They have made a very poor job of governing in the past 8 or so years (some would say before, but I think Cameron was decent Brexit aside).Razedabode said:What a shame - if you govern with such utter contempt like the conservatives have done over the last 14 years, then they deserve everything they get
I have to keep telling my mother the party isn’t it the same as it was when she was voting in the 70s and 80s - it it totally out of touch with modern Britain (and the modern workforce)
As a former Tory I can’t honestly say I am too sad for them. They brought it on themselves.
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SF's candidate in Fermanagh and South Tyrone just resigned as the general secretary of the RCN to run for office. To go from leading a trade union that's pretty active in industrial disputes across the UK, to five years of abstaining from a parliamentary seat (at best), is quite a step - effectively exempting oneself from politics.bondegezou said:I see the tactical game of not standing has started in Northern Ireland. The DUP have stood aside for the UUP in Fermanagh & S Tyrone, while they're also not standing against their former member Alex Easton in North Down, who is standing this time as an independent. The TUV are also backing Easton.
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Fermanagh & South Tyrone majorities in recent elections:bondegezou said:I see the tactical game of not standing has started in Northern Ireland. The DUP have stood aside for the UUP in Fermanagh & S Tyrone, while they're also not standing against their former member Alex Easton in North Down, who is standing this time as an independent. The TUV are also backing Easton.
2019: SF 57
2017: SF 875
2015: UUP 530
2010: SF 4 (!!!)
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Just seen the news about Aaron Bell not standing. A shame, but there was not much hope in any case.2
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It is a curious thing how the Lib Dems could be the sensible middle ground, but they are incredibly ideologically zealous on the culture war stuff.Cookie said:
Sorry Tim - I don't like or trust Starmer but I'd still prefer what he's pertaining to offer than bringing the Lib Dems into it (which as far as I can see it would be the same thing but with added Bollocks to Brexit and trans women are women - though that may be the hangover from the previous campaign).TimS said:
How about SKS with a tiny majority and in hock to a greatly swelled Lib Dem parliamentary party enabling him to ignore the loony left?Cookie said:
I'd probably rather SKS with a massive majority and able to do what he likes than SKS with a tiny majority and in hock to the likes of Diane Abbot who has unaccountaboy made it back inside the tent, or SKS with a minority and in hock to the SNP.carnforth said:
The tories had a majority of 80 and didn't manage to prosecute their agenda.Casino_Royale said:
Do you want SKS being a virtual dictator for 5 years?Leon said:
That’s how I see it. Get rid. We need a confident populist right wing party that isn’t terrified of the guardian or what their Islington neighbours will think. It will arise in time, politics abhors a vacuum. The trouble is we must endure at least a term of labour but 1. They deserve a go and who knows they may do ok and 2. It is literally impossible to feel sad as this bunch of Tories departsSean_F said:Perhaps, like the 1920’s Liberals, a party just stops representing any significant element of the population. The Conservatives’ strategy of talking right, acting left, and lining their pockets seems to have reached the end of the road.
Centre right politics is probably pointless now, in the UK.1 -
If it was the USA you'd be getting a visit from the Secret Service, but I think you'll be fine.Dura_Ace said:Just got phone polled by Gallup. Obviously calling from the Philippines. I said I would kill Sunak if I thought I could get away with it so I am probably on some sort of fucking list now.
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'Tissue Price' to be replaced by 'Paper Candidate'.rkrkrk said:Aaron Bell standing down
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John Howard lost his seat in the 2007 Aus election.0
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Pat Cullen?EPG said:
SF's candidate in Fermanagh and South Tyrone just resigned as the general secretary of the RCN to run for office. To go from leading a trade union that's pretty active in industrial disputes across the UK, to five years of abstaining from a parliamentary seat (at best), is quite a step - effectively exempting oneself from politics.bondegezou said:I see the tactical game of not standing has started in Northern Ireland. The DUP have stood aside for the UUP in Fermanagh & S Tyrone, while they're also not standing against their former member Alex Easton in North Down, who is standing this time as an independent. The TUV are also backing Easton.
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Maybe she just hopes an increase in kneecapping will drum up a bit of trade for her members.EPG said:
SF's candidate in Fermanagh and South Tyrone just resigned as the general secretary of the RCN to run for office. To go from leading a trade union that's pretty active in industrial disputes across the UK, to five years of abstaining from a parliamentary seat (at best), is quite a step - effectively exempting oneself from politics.bondegezou said:I see the tactical game of not standing has started in Northern Ireland. The DUP have stood aside for the UUP in Fermanagh & S Tyrone, while they're also not standing against their former member Alex Easton in North Down, who is standing this time as an independent. The TUV are also backing Easton.
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